First five rounds: Adley Rutschman (1-1), Gunnar Henderson (2-42), Kyle Stowers (CBB-71), Zach Watson (3-79), Joey Ortiz (4-108), Darell Hernaiz (5-138)
Also notable: Maverick Handley (6-168), Andrew Daschbach (11-318), Dan Hammer (13-378)
Obviously, this draft is going to be headlined by Adley Rutschman, possibly the best college catching prospect ever, or at the very least since Florida State's Buster Posey in 2008. For those who remember the Matt Wieters hype, Rutschman is easily better at the same stage of his career and should be a future All Star with power, high on-base percentages, great defense, and leadership. Moving past Rutschman, though, there's a lot to like elsewhere in this draft. Gunnar Henderson provides a ton of upside and guys like Kyle Stowers, Zach Watson, and Dan Hammer seem like they could take a big step forward with pro coaching. It was also a Stanford-themed draft, as the Orioles took Stanford position players in the second Competitive Balance round, the sixth round, and the eleventh round.
1-1: C Adley Rutschman (Oregon State, my rank: 1)
Adley Rutschman is not short on praise, and it's well deserved as one of the best draft prospects of the decade, perhaps the best since Bryce Harper in 2010. Simply put, he's the complete package as a player. The Portland-area native slashed just .234/.322/.306 as a freshman at Oregon State in 2017, then put himself firmly into the first overall conversation after a huge sophomore year where he slashed .408/.505/.628 as a sophomore. Somehow, he got even better in 2019, finishing with a .411/.575/.751 line, 17 home runs, and a 38/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Despite going through the rigors of catching and playing in a tough Pac-12 conference, Rutschman led all college baseball players in on-base percentage (.575), OPS (1.326), and walks (76) while finishing fifth in batting average (.411) and sixth in slugging percentage (.751). As you might figure from those stats, he has an excellent feel for hitting between great plate discipline (28.6% walk rate, 14.3% strikeout rate) and great feel for the barrel, and that helps him get to his plus power very consistently. Defensively, he's a superb catcher with both a strong arm and a great glove, and he comes with all of the desired leadership skills you look for in a catcher. Together, that helps Rutschman project for 30 or more home runs per season with high on-base percentages and borderline Gold Glove defense, or as some would call it, "MVP caliber." He draws a lot of comparisons to Buster Posey, which is natural given that Posey was the game's most recent elite catcher, though Rutschman looks to have more power. No pressure or anything, Adley, but the expectations are sky high. He'll inevitably have his ups and downs working through the minors and breaking into the majors, but given his power, competency for hitting, defense, and work ethic, it's hard to see him becoming anything but a star. He signed for a record $8.1 million, which was still $320,000 below slot, and he's slashing .176/.282/.294 with a home run and a 4/5 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and short season Aberdeen.
2-42: SS Gunnar Henderson (Morgan Academy [AL], my rank: 25)
After saving money on Rutschman, the Orioles dipped into the high school ranks to spend that extra money on Gunnar Henderson. Henderson hails from Selma, Alabama, and you don't see too many players from these small towns in the Deep South get drafted this high out of high school. Henderson is the exception, having been a late riser on many boards with a great senior year at John T. Morgan Academy, and while he's still raw, he's improved considerably as of late. He's 6'3" and is very athletic, which helps him on both sides of the ball, and he has shown both power and feel for the barrel this spring. He has a quick bat solid raw power, and he has been getting to it more frequently, albeit against mediocre competition in Central Alabama. He's also getting it figured out defensively, with his strong arm and athleticism making him a virtual lock to stay on the left side of the infield, possibly at shortstop if he can refine his game a little bit, but if not, definitely at third base. He also didn't turn 18 until June, and he has the upside to hit 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and good defense. However, unlike Rutschman, he will need a lot of time to develop and probably won't move through the minors very quickly at all. Committed to Auburn, he instead signed for $2.3 million, which was $530,000 above slot, and he's slashing .240/.339/.280 with a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the Gulf Coast League.
CBB-71: OF Kyle Stowers (Stanford, my rank: 67)
Kyle Stowers is a bit of a polarizing player because of the way his numbers have fluctuated, but I think pro coaching can really help him. The San Diego-area native showed power from an aggressive approach when he slashed .286/.383/.512 as a sophomore at Stanford in 2018, but that approach didn't hurt him when he went on to the elite Cape Cod League and slashed .326/.361/.565 with six home runs and a 34/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games there that summer. Then in 2019, he was a different player; this year, he slashed .303/.369/.523 with nine home runs and a 31/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in a lineup that also included 2019 Orioles draft picks Maverick Handley (6th round) and Andrew Daschbach (11th round). Stowers' strikeout rate dropped from 20.4% as a sophomore to 12.4% as a junior, while his walk rate also dropped a little from 12.5% to 9.6%. His swing is more direct this year, which has helped his strikeout rates, and he generates good power from his 6'3" frame and whippy swing. However, I think he could actually tap into it even more once he gets to working with Orioles minor league hitting coaches, and he could eventually profile for 20-30 home runs annually if things break right. While he improved his contact rates this year, it will still be something to follow as he works his way through pro ball. Additionally, he's an aggressive hitter and will probably never post high on-base percentages, so most of his value will be tied to that power, even if he hits for high averages. Defensively, he holds his own in the outfield but is nothing special. Stowers signed at slot for $884,200, and he's slashing .231/.294/.352 with a home run and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games with Aberdeen.
3-79: OF Zach Watson (Louisiana State, my rank: 91)
Zach Watson could have gone in the top 100 picks as a draft eligible sophomore last year, where he slashed .308/.366/.479 for LSU and ranked 75th on my 2018 draft list, but he (along with Zack Hess) opted to return to Baton Rouge for his junior season. It turned out to be much of the same, as he slashed a nearly identical .308/.378/.468 with seven home runs and a 47/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. The Ruston, Louisiana native is a very consistent hitter who has proven himself against tough SEC pitching, and he also slashed .382/.450/.500 in a brief, ten game run through the Cape Cod League, so there's no question about his feel for the barrel. Watson is extremely skinny, listed at six feet and 160 pounds, and he uses that barrel to spray hard line drives around the field. Despite his slight stature, there might actually be some power projection in there just because he hits the ball so darn hard, and additional loft in his swing could help him hit 15 home runs per season. While he does have that coveted feel for the barrel, one important issue to address early in his pro career will be his plate discipline, which is average for now. Watson can also fly on the bases and in the outfield, where he lacks a big arm but is overall an above average defender. Overall, he looks like a fourth outfielder at first glance, but he's the kind of guy that could take off with pro coaching and end up an everyday center fielder. He is very old for his class, having turned 22 in June, so that's one knock. Watson signed at slot for $780,400, and he's slashing .247/.316/.494 with five home runs, five stolen bases, and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games between Aberdeen and Class A Delmarva.
4-108: SS Joey Ortiz (New Mexico State, unranked)
I mentioned in Adley Rutschman's paragraph that he had the fifth highest batting average in college baseball at .411 this year. Well, Joey Ortiz ranked third at .422. While New Mexico State a) is an extremely hitter-friendly environment and b) doesn't face the same competition in the Western Athletic Conference that Oregon State sees in the Pac-12, ranking ahead of Rutschman in anything is pretty darn impressive, especially when you're third best in the country (albeit second on your own team behind Nick Gonzales' NCAA-leading .432). Ortiz' huge breakout year overall saw him slash .422/.474/.697 with eight home runs and a 26/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, though it was a little inflated in that Coors Field-like environment in Las Cruces. The Los Angeles-area native has great feel for the barrel and should continue to hit for a high average in pro ball, though he'll need to get more patient at the plate if he wants to post high on-base percentages as well. Though he hit eight home runs at New Mexico State this year, he'll probably be more of a singles and doubles hitter in pro ball at 5'11" and with an all-fields approach. With very competent defense at shortstop, his profile screams utility infielder down the line. On the plus side, he's more than a year younger than Zach Watson and didn't turn 21 until July. He signed for for $450,000, which was $88,200 below slot, and he's slashing .241/.315/.286 with a home run and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games at Aberdeen.
5-138: SS Darell Hernaiz (Americas HS [TX], unranked)
Just 50 miles down the road from New Mexico State's campus in Las Cruces, the Orioles found another shortstop in El Paso high schooler Darell Hernaiz. He's a very athletic kid with high upside, but he has a long way to go developmentally. He's got some power but hasn't fully tapped into it yet, with room to grow in his 6'1" frame. He's also solid defensively but may not be able to stick at shortstop. Really, it's hard to project him at this point, especially because I'm writing this article on his 18th birthday two months after the draft, but his athleticism and strength should help him on both sides of the ball through what should be a long development path. Committed to Texas Tech, he signed for $400,000, which was $2,000 below slot, and he's slashing .213/.373/.298 with a home run and a 15/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in the Gulf Coast League.
6-168: C Maverick Handley (Stanford, unranked)
The Orioles picked up Kyle Stowers in the second Competitive Balance Round, and almost a hundred picks later, they grabbed his teammate, Maverick Handley. The man with the 80 grade baseball name slashed .290/.393/.442 with five home runs and a 39/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, but it's really his defense and feel for the game that the Orioles are buying as he will inevitably have a tough time starting considering who they took first overall. The Denver native has great plate discipline that helps him get his pitch and do enough damage to remain viable with the bat, but at a stocky 5'11", he lacks much power and projects as a low-impact hitter overall. Defensively, he gets the job done and then some, as he is a lock to stick behind the plate both with his glove and with his leadership skills. Ultimately, he projects as Rutschman's backup down the line, and the Adley Rutschman/Maverick Handley combination might have the coolest pair of names ever for any pair of major league catchers on the same team. He signed for $250,000, which was $51,600 below slot, and he's slashing .218/.338/.273 with a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games at Aberdeen.
11-318: 1B Andrew Daschbach (Stanford, unranked)
Make that three Stanford hitters in the first eleven rounds for the Orioles. However, Andrew Daschbach is perhaps the polar opposite to Maverick Handley as a player. The Silicon Valley native is a pure masher, and he slashed .289/.382/.602 with 17 home runs and a 54/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games for Stanford this year. That big season was highlighted by a four homer performance against Cal Poly on May 14th, and he also slashed a strong .306/.424/.515 with five home runs and a 32/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games on the Cape. At 6'3" and 225 pounds, he's plenty strong enough to blast balls out of any park, and he has gotten to that power consistently against quality pitching. However, his plate discipline is only so-so, with a 21.7% strikeout rate and just a 10% walk rate, so it's fully a power-only profile. There's not too much projection, but he could hit 20 home runs annually if he gets to the majors and tightens his control of the strike zone. Defensively, he's limited to first base and could end up a DH long term, so all of the pressure will be on his power. He signed for $250,000, which counted for $125,000 against the Orioles' bonus pool, and he's slashing .227/.370/.333 with one home run and an 18/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Aberdeen, where he once again shares the lineup with Handley and Kyle Stowers.
13-378: RHP Dan Hammer (Pittsburgh, unranked)
Between Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Maverick Handley, and now Dan Hammer, the Orioles really are stocking up on the cool names. Hammer comes from Pitt, where he has never quite put it together despite strikeout stuff. The Philadelphia native posted a 6.55 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and an 80/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 innings for the Panthers this year, but he was much better on the Cape last summer, where his ERA was just 2.16 and he struck out 20 batters to five walks in 25 innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid breaking ball and changeup, but his stuff hasn't been consistent and he has gotten hit hard when he fell behind in the count. The Orioles will work to get him more consistent with everything in the hopes of getting a #4 starter, though shifting him to the bullpen could help him take a big step forward. Hammer signed for $150,000, which counts for $25,000 against the bonus pool, and he has a 1.17 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 19/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings at Aberdeen.
Showing posts with label Draft Review. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Draft Review. Show all posts
Saturday, August 3, 2019
Friday, August 2, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Kansas City Royals
First five rounds: Bobby Witt Jr. (1-2), Brady McConnell (2-44), Alec Marsh (CBB-70), Grant Gambrell (3-80), Michael Massey (4-109), John Rave (5-139)
Also notable: Noah Murdock (7-199), Drew Parrish (8-229), Justin Hooper (14-409)
Obviously, this draft class is headlined by the uber-talented Bobby Witt Jr., perhaps the best all-around high school position player we've seen since at least Brendan Rodgers in 2015, if not Byron Buxton in 2012. Behind Witt, though, I see this class as fairly ordinary, as I'm not a huge fan of the Brady McConnell pick and most of the players after that are fairly unremarkable. It was a college-heavy draft for the Royals, as they selected 15 consecutive college players after Witt, mostly from big programs.
1-2: SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Colleyville Heritage HS [TX], my rank: 2)
Perhaps the worst-kept secret in the rumor mill heading up to the draft was that the Royals wanted Bobby Witt Jr. with their first pick. Witt is truly an elite talent, with an all around game that rivals some of the best prep hitters in recent memory. He was the top prep player in the class coming into the season, but in early incarnations of my draft list in the winter, I actually had him behind Andrew Vaughn because I just wasn't sold on his hit tool. Well, now I am. The DFW native and son of former big leaguer Bobby Witt is an impact player in all facets of the game, showing big power, much improved plate discipline and ability to make contact, plenty of speed, and exceptional defense at shortstop. He generates his power from a big swing that caused some minor swing and miss questions over the summer, but with his exceptional spring, that's less of an issue and he projects for about 30 or more home runs annually with good on-base percentages. That'll certainly play, especially when you're an elite defender at shortstop, and overall you could compare his game somewhat to Francisco Lindor. Additionally, he's reported to be a hard worker and very easily coachable. The only knock on Witt at this point is his age, as he turned 19 in June and is old for his class, but given all the other positives, that's hardly an issue. Committed to Oklahoma, he instead signed at slot for $7.79 million and is slashing .256/.301/.326 with six stolen bases and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in the complex level Arizona League.
2-44: SS Brady McConnell (Florida, my rank: 71)
A draft-eligible sophomore because he turned 21 in May, Brady McConnell followed a similar path as his teammate and 2018 first rounder Jonathan India. India was a well-regarded high school prospect who instead made it to campus at Florida and hit mediocrely for two years before exploding for a .350/.497/.717 line as a junior and getting drafted fifth overall by the Reds. However, I wasn't quite that high on India, and with a .250/.351/.391 slash line in the minors this year, my thoughts haven't changed. Anyways, this paragraph is about Brady McConnell, who also was a well-regarded high school prospect coming out of Merritt Island on Florida's East Coast, and he ranked 58th on my 2017 list. After picking up just three hits as a freshman at UF in 2018, he exploded in India-like fashion by slashing .332/.385/.576 with 15 home runs and a 57/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games for the Gators. Perhaps more impressively, 11 of his 15 home runs came in conference play against tough SEC arms, leading to a .299/.349/.615 slash line in those 30 games. However, like India, I'm not quite sold on McConnell at this draft position. He has power in his 6'3" frame and got to it consistently in 2019, drifting forward in his effective load before exploding with his smooth, whippy swing. On the flip side, his plate discipline this year was mediocre, as evidenced by a high 22.4% strikeout rate and a low 6.7% walk rate. If McConnell wants his production to carry over to pro ball, he'll have to get more patient at the plate and prove that he can find the barrel consistently against pro pitching. He's also only so-so at shortstop and will likely have to move over to second or third base, especially with Witt guaranteed to stay there. Together, that gives McConnell the upside of a power-hitting shortstop with 20-30 homer annual pop, though he has some questions to answer if he wants to get there. He signed for $2.22 million, which was $521,000 above slot, and he's slashing .250/.348/.475 with two home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona League and rookie level Idaho Falls.
CBB-70: RHP Alec Marsh (Arizona State, my rank: 99)
Alec Marsh has gotten better each year at Arizona State, and this year he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 99/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. However, that ERA might be just a bit deceiving, as he was blown up for a combined 17 runs between his April 5th start against USC and his April 26th start against Washington. Taking out those two terrible starts, he was remarkably consistent and actually carried a 2.11 ERA. When things are working for the 6'2" righty, he's a reliable arm that fires low 90's fastballs, a couple of good breaking balls, and a solid changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. All together, Marsh does not bring the most eye-popping resume, either from his stats or his stuff, but his well-rounded skill set makes him an advanced arm for a kid who just turned 21 in May and should help him reach the majors as a #3 or #4 starter. Like Witt, he's seen as a hard worker who will get the most out of his ability, especially if the Royals can help him avoid those blow-ups. He signed for $904,300, which was $2,500 below slot, and he has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 25/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings for Idaho Falls.
3-80: RHP Grant Gambrell (Oregon State, my rank: 116)
Ten picks after nabbing Marsh, the Royals went back to the Pac-12 and grabbed another starting pitcher, this time from Oregon State. Grant Gambrell, with the luxury of throwing to first overall pick Adley Rutschman in Corvallis, had a breakthrough year on the mound and posted a 2.83 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an 80/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings against much of the same competition that Marsh faced. The Fresno-area native is a big guy at 6'4", and he comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a fairly promising slider, and a decent changeup. That slider has sharp break, but it also breaks early and could be easy to pick up, so he'll have to refine it a bit further in order to get the swings and misses he wants out of it. He's fairly inconsistent on the mound and throws with some effort, so despite the solid numbers, the Royals are really buying into his arm strength and are hoping they can turn him into something with pro refinement. He does throw strikes in general, but again, he's not there consistently yet. Consider Gambrell an upside play who could be a mid-rotation starter but who could also end up as a power reliever. He signed for $647,500, which was $120,300 below slot, and he has a 5.06 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 16/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 innings at Idaho Falls.
4-109: 2B Michael Massey (Illinois, unranked)
There's not much upside to be had here, but Michael Massey is about as steady as they come. The Chicago native slashed .330/.360/.483 as a freshman at Illinois then .326/.369/.514 as a sophomore, after which he slashed .280/.337/.366 with a home run and a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the elite Cape Cod League. This year, Massey's numbers were down just a hair as he dealt with a back injury, but he still finished at .317/.372/.459 with five home runs and a 33/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Standing an even six feet tall, Massey will never be much of a power hitter, instead relying on excellent bat to ball skills (13.4% strikeout rate) and good plate discipline to slap singles and doubles around the field. His feel for the game means he shouldn't have much trouble adjusting to pro pitching, though he likely won't hit enough to end up a full time starter in the majors. He's not the most athletic guy in the world, but he understands the game and plays hard and should be an above average defender at second base or playable on the left side of the infield. Overall, the gritty infielder with contact ability and baseball IQ points very clearly towards a utility infield role at the major league level, one which he should have little trouble getting to. He signed for $472,500, which was $60,500 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.309/.348 with a pair of home runs and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games at rookie level Burlington.
5-139: OF John Rave (Illinois State, my rank: 138)
Two picks, two Illinois college position players. John Rave comes from Illinois State, but unlike his Prairie State counterpart, he's anything but steady. The Bloomington, Illinois native had a big sophomore year for the Redbirds in 2018, slashing .347/.402/.571, then he continued the hot hitting in the Cape Cod League and slashed .304/.392/.464 with four home runs and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. However, his numbers dropped this year as a junior, as he sold out for power and ended up slashing .297/.377/.502 with 12 home runs and a 64/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He can show average power when he swings for the fences, but he has historically hit better when he just focused on making hard contact and getting on base, and that's probably what the Royals will try to get him back to doing. His plate discipline is fringy, so pro ball may be a bit of an adjustment for him. Rave is also fringe-average in the outfield despite his well above average speed, so he'll need some refinement there as well. Overall, it's hard to project him, as he'll need more refinement than the typical college hitter, but the talent is clearly there because you don't put up an .856 OPS on the Cape by accident. He signed for $297,500, which was $100,500 below slot, and he's slashing .231/.342/.336 with two home runs and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between Burlington and Class A Lexington.
7-199: RHP Noah Murdock (Virginia, unranked)
Noah Murdock was a well-known prospect coming out of high school in Colonial Heights, Virginia just south of Richmond as an ultra-projectable 6'7" string bean with a low 90's fastball, and he ranked #130 on my 2016 draft list because of it. However, he was raw and had a long way to go. Now even taller at 6'8" and with 2017 Tommy John surgery under his belt, he's still raw, and as a junior this year, he posted a disappointing 6.30 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 69/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings. He still sits in the low 90's and flashes a solid breaking ball, and the angle he creates with his long arms helps those pitches play up. However, he got hit when he left the ball over the plate and/or his breaking ball flattened out, and he'll need mechanical refinement in the minors. Fortunately for him and the Royals, he's young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, giving him more time to develop into a potential big league starting pitcher or late inning reliever. He signed for $230,500, which was $2,500 below slot, and he has a 2.10 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 26/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings with Burlington.
8-229: LHP Drew Parrish (Florida State, unranked)
Drew Parrish gives the Royals another arm from a big ACC program, this time Florida State. After a dominant sophomore season in 2018 (2.52 ERA, 128/37 K/BB), Parrish took a bit of a step back this year, finishing with a 4.67 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 125/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.1 innings for the Seminoles. The Rockledge, Florida native, who grew up playing against Royals second rounder Brady McConnell just two towns over, is the opposite of Murdock in most ways. He stands just 5'11" and sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, but he understands how to mix and locate his pitches and use his tumbling changeup to keep hitters off balance. He likely won't post the same high strikeout numbers he had in college, but he should be the kind of guy to induce weak contact and fill the strike zone in pro ball. He has proven durable as a starter, but perhaps his stuff could tick up in a bullpen role, where he could really pitch off that changeup. He signed for $167,500, which was $17,200 below slot, and he has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an 18/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings at Burlington.
14-409: LHP Justin Hooper (UCLA, unranked)
If you follow the draft closely like I do, here's a name you probably haven't heard in a long time. Justin Hooper was a very well-known prospect coming out of the famed De La Salle High School in Concord, California (near Oakland), and he actually ranked at #28 in my first ever draft rankings in 2015, a list which I view as more of a practice round considering I was just getting into the draft. He instead went on to UCLA, where his career has been...rocky. He got hit around as a freshman in 2016, bounced back for a solid sophomore campaign in 2016 with a 3.69 ERA and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio, then missed all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery. In 2019, he got into...one game, retiring two of the four UC Irvine hitters he faced on May 14th and walking the other two. Like Murdock, he's a huge guy at 6'8", though he comes from a low three quarters arm slot that creates a lot of run on his fastball. Back in high school, which was four years ago, he sat in the low 90's with the promise of more velocity and showed a curveball with nice two-plane break, though his mechanics needed to be cleaned up and he just needed to get more consistent as a pitcher in general. That hasn't happened, so he'll be a complete project for the Royals despite having turned 22 back in October, but he's a sleeper with a huge arm that could surprise some people if he can get healthy and get going. As an interesting aside, when I was researching what the heck happened to him since I last heard his name in 2015, I noticed a bunch of tabloid articles about him apparently dating someone famous – I have no idea who Brielle Biermann is, but apparently that's news enough to bury all of the actually relevant things I was searching for. Hooper signed for $125,000.
Also notable: Noah Murdock (7-199), Drew Parrish (8-229), Justin Hooper (14-409)
Obviously, this draft class is headlined by the uber-talented Bobby Witt Jr., perhaps the best all-around high school position player we've seen since at least Brendan Rodgers in 2015, if not Byron Buxton in 2012. Behind Witt, though, I see this class as fairly ordinary, as I'm not a huge fan of the Brady McConnell pick and most of the players after that are fairly unremarkable. It was a college-heavy draft for the Royals, as they selected 15 consecutive college players after Witt, mostly from big programs.
1-2: SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Colleyville Heritage HS [TX], my rank: 2)
Perhaps the worst-kept secret in the rumor mill heading up to the draft was that the Royals wanted Bobby Witt Jr. with their first pick. Witt is truly an elite talent, with an all around game that rivals some of the best prep hitters in recent memory. He was the top prep player in the class coming into the season, but in early incarnations of my draft list in the winter, I actually had him behind Andrew Vaughn because I just wasn't sold on his hit tool. Well, now I am. The DFW native and son of former big leaguer Bobby Witt is an impact player in all facets of the game, showing big power, much improved plate discipline and ability to make contact, plenty of speed, and exceptional defense at shortstop. He generates his power from a big swing that caused some minor swing and miss questions over the summer, but with his exceptional spring, that's less of an issue and he projects for about 30 or more home runs annually with good on-base percentages. That'll certainly play, especially when you're an elite defender at shortstop, and overall you could compare his game somewhat to Francisco Lindor. Additionally, he's reported to be a hard worker and very easily coachable. The only knock on Witt at this point is his age, as he turned 19 in June and is old for his class, but given all the other positives, that's hardly an issue. Committed to Oklahoma, he instead signed at slot for $7.79 million and is slashing .256/.301/.326 with six stolen bases and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in the complex level Arizona League.
2-44: SS Brady McConnell (Florida, my rank: 71)
A draft-eligible sophomore because he turned 21 in May, Brady McConnell followed a similar path as his teammate and 2018 first rounder Jonathan India. India was a well-regarded high school prospect who instead made it to campus at Florida and hit mediocrely for two years before exploding for a .350/.497/.717 line as a junior and getting drafted fifth overall by the Reds. However, I wasn't quite that high on India, and with a .250/.351/.391 slash line in the minors this year, my thoughts haven't changed. Anyways, this paragraph is about Brady McConnell, who also was a well-regarded high school prospect coming out of Merritt Island on Florida's East Coast, and he ranked 58th on my 2017 list. After picking up just three hits as a freshman at UF in 2018, he exploded in India-like fashion by slashing .332/.385/.576 with 15 home runs and a 57/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games for the Gators. Perhaps more impressively, 11 of his 15 home runs came in conference play against tough SEC arms, leading to a .299/.349/.615 slash line in those 30 games. However, like India, I'm not quite sold on McConnell at this draft position. He has power in his 6'3" frame and got to it consistently in 2019, drifting forward in his effective load before exploding with his smooth, whippy swing. On the flip side, his plate discipline this year was mediocre, as evidenced by a high 22.4% strikeout rate and a low 6.7% walk rate. If McConnell wants his production to carry over to pro ball, he'll have to get more patient at the plate and prove that he can find the barrel consistently against pro pitching. He's also only so-so at shortstop and will likely have to move over to second or third base, especially with Witt guaranteed to stay there. Together, that gives McConnell the upside of a power-hitting shortstop with 20-30 homer annual pop, though he has some questions to answer if he wants to get there. He signed for $2.22 million, which was $521,000 above slot, and he's slashing .250/.348/.475 with two home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona League and rookie level Idaho Falls.
CBB-70: RHP Alec Marsh (Arizona State, my rank: 99)
Alec Marsh has gotten better each year at Arizona State, and this year he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 99/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. However, that ERA might be just a bit deceiving, as he was blown up for a combined 17 runs between his April 5th start against USC and his April 26th start against Washington. Taking out those two terrible starts, he was remarkably consistent and actually carried a 2.11 ERA. When things are working for the 6'2" righty, he's a reliable arm that fires low 90's fastballs, a couple of good breaking balls, and a solid changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. All together, Marsh does not bring the most eye-popping resume, either from his stats or his stuff, but his well-rounded skill set makes him an advanced arm for a kid who just turned 21 in May and should help him reach the majors as a #3 or #4 starter. Like Witt, he's seen as a hard worker who will get the most out of his ability, especially if the Royals can help him avoid those blow-ups. He signed for $904,300, which was $2,500 below slot, and he has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 25/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings for Idaho Falls.
3-80: RHP Grant Gambrell (Oregon State, my rank: 116)
Ten picks after nabbing Marsh, the Royals went back to the Pac-12 and grabbed another starting pitcher, this time from Oregon State. Grant Gambrell, with the luxury of throwing to first overall pick Adley Rutschman in Corvallis, had a breakthrough year on the mound and posted a 2.83 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an 80/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings against much of the same competition that Marsh faced. The Fresno-area native is a big guy at 6'4", and he comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a fairly promising slider, and a decent changeup. That slider has sharp break, but it also breaks early and could be easy to pick up, so he'll have to refine it a bit further in order to get the swings and misses he wants out of it. He's fairly inconsistent on the mound and throws with some effort, so despite the solid numbers, the Royals are really buying into his arm strength and are hoping they can turn him into something with pro refinement. He does throw strikes in general, but again, he's not there consistently yet. Consider Gambrell an upside play who could be a mid-rotation starter but who could also end up as a power reliever. He signed for $647,500, which was $120,300 below slot, and he has a 5.06 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 16/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 innings at Idaho Falls.
4-109: 2B Michael Massey (Illinois, unranked)
There's not much upside to be had here, but Michael Massey is about as steady as they come. The Chicago native slashed .330/.360/.483 as a freshman at Illinois then .326/.369/.514 as a sophomore, after which he slashed .280/.337/.366 with a home run and a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the elite Cape Cod League. This year, Massey's numbers were down just a hair as he dealt with a back injury, but he still finished at .317/.372/.459 with five home runs and a 33/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Standing an even six feet tall, Massey will never be much of a power hitter, instead relying on excellent bat to ball skills (13.4% strikeout rate) and good plate discipline to slap singles and doubles around the field. His feel for the game means he shouldn't have much trouble adjusting to pro pitching, though he likely won't hit enough to end up a full time starter in the majors. He's not the most athletic guy in the world, but he understands the game and plays hard and should be an above average defender at second base or playable on the left side of the infield. Overall, the gritty infielder with contact ability and baseball IQ points very clearly towards a utility infield role at the major league level, one which he should have little trouble getting to. He signed for $472,500, which was $60,500 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.309/.348 with a pair of home runs and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games at rookie level Burlington.
5-139: OF John Rave (Illinois State, my rank: 138)
Two picks, two Illinois college position players. John Rave comes from Illinois State, but unlike his Prairie State counterpart, he's anything but steady. The Bloomington, Illinois native had a big sophomore year for the Redbirds in 2018, slashing .347/.402/.571, then he continued the hot hitting in the Cape Cod League and slashed .304/.392/.464 with four home runs and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. However, his numbers dropped this year as a junior, as he sold out for power and ended up slashing .297/.377/.502 with 12 home runs and a 64/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He can show average power when he swings for the fences, but he has historically hit better when he just focused on making hard contact and getting on base, and that's probably what the Royals will try to get him back to doing. His plate discipline is fringy, so pro ball may be a bit of an adjustment for him. Rave is also fringe-average in the outfield despite his well above average speed, so he'll need some refinement there as well. Overall, it's hard to project him, as he'll need more refinement than the typical college hitter, but the talent is clearly there because you don't put up an .856 OPS on the Cape by accident. He signed for $297,500, which was $100,500 below slot, and he's slashing .231/.342/.336 with two home runs and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between Burlington and Class A Lexington.
7-199: RHP Noah Murdock (Virginia, unranked)
Noah Murdock was a well-known prospect coming out of high school in Colonial Heights, Virginia just south of Richmond as an ultra-projectable 6'7" string bean with a low 90's fastball, and he ranked #130 on my 2016 draft list because of it. However, he was raw and had a long way to go. Now even taller at 6'8" and with 2017 Tommy John surgery under his belt, he's still raw, and as a junior this year, he posted a disappointing 6.30 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 69/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings. He still sits in the low 90's and flashes a solid breaking ball, and the angle he creates with his long arms helps those pitches play up. However, he got hit when he left the ball over the plate and/or his breaking ball flattened out, and he'll need mechanical refinement in the minors. Fortunately for him and the Royals, he's young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, giving him more time to develop into a potential big league starting pitcher or late inning reliever. He signed for $230,500, which was $2,500 below slot, and he has a 2.10 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 26/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings with Burlington.
8-229: LHP Drew Parrish (Florida State, unranked)
Drew Parrish gives the Royals another arm from a big ACC program, this time Florida State. After a dominant sophomore season in 2018 (2.52 ERA, 128/37 K/BB), Parrish took a bit of a step back this year, finishing with a 4.67 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 125/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.1 innings for the Seminoles. The Rockledge, Florida native, who grew up playing against Royals second rounder Brady McConnell just two towns over, is the opposite of Murdock in most ways. He stands just 5'11" and sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, but he understands how to mix and locate his pitches and use his tumbling changeup to keep hitters off balance. He likely won't post the same high strikeout numbers he had in college, but he should be the kind of guy to induce weak contact and fill the strike zone in pro ball. He has proven durable as a starter, but perhaps his stuff could tick up in a bullpen role, where he could really pitch off that changeup. He signed for $167,500, which was $17,200 below slot, and he has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an 18/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings at Burlington.
14-409: LHP Justin Hooper (UCLA, unranked)
If you follow the draft closely like I do, here's a name you probably haven't heard in a long time. Justin Hooper was a very well-known prospect coming out of the famed De La Salle High School in Concord, California (near Oakland), and he actually ranked at #28 in my first ever draft rankings in 2015, a list which I view as more of a practice round considering I was just getting into the draft. He instead went on to UCLA, where his career has been...rocky. He got hit around as a freshman in 2016, bounced back for a solid sophomore campaign in 2016 with a 3.69 ERA and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio, then missed all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery. In 2019, he got into...one game, retiring two of the four UC Irvine hitters he faced on May 14th and walking the other two. Like Murdock, he's a huge guy at 6'8", though he comes from a low three quarters arm slot that creates a lot of run on his fastball. Back in high school, which was four years ago, he sat in the low 90's with the promise of more velocity and showed a curveball with nice two-plane break, though his mechanics needed to be cleaned up and he just needed to get more consistent as a pitcher in general. That hasn't happened, so he'll be a complete project for the Royals despite having turned 22 back in October, but he's a sleeper with a huge arm that could surprise some people if he can get healthy and get going. As an interesting aside, when I was researching what the heck happened to him since I last heard his name in 2015, I noticed a bunch of tabloid articles about him apparently dating someone famous – I have no idea who Brielle Biermann is, but apparently that's news enough to bury all of the actually relevant things I was searching for. Hooper signed for $125,000.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Chicago White Sox
First five rounds: Andrew Vaughn (1-3), Matthew Thompson (2-45), Andrew Dalquist (3-81), James Beard (4-110), Dan Metzdorf (5-140)
Also notable: Karan Patel (7-200), DJ Gladney (16-470), Cameron Simmons (20-590)
Personally, I think this was a great draft for the White Sox. Andrew Vaughn is one of the best pure hitters to come out of the college ranks in recent memory, and brings the luxury of both a high floor and a high ceiling as a Joey Votto type. After him, Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist are a couple of upside high school arms who could be impact starters down the line, and James Beard brings some of the best speed you'll find on a baseball diamond anywhere. The White Sox had to draft six straight college seniors after popping Beard in the fourth round to pay for Thompson's and Dalquist's overslot bonuses, but that's perfectly find with me given the class they ended up with.
1-3: 1B Andrew Vaughn (California, my rank: 3)
I spoke in the Tigers' draft review about how Riley Greene is the best pure high school bat since Brendan Rodgers, but Andrew Vaughn is right up there with the best college bats in recent memory. Between the power, ability to get on base, and ability to project going forward, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman (now an Oriole) is the only bat in the last few drafts that I see as even comparable to Vaughn's, with perhaps Virginia's Pavin Smith (now a Diamondback) having a say in there as well. I mean really, Vaughn slashed .402/.531/.819 with 23 home runs and an 18/44 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore at California in 2018, then pitchers refused to pitch to him this year and his numbers "dipped" to .374/.539/.704 with 15 home runs and a 33/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games, including a .347/.508/.622 line in conference in the tough Pac-12. He also slashed .308/.368/.654 with five home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the elite Cape Cod League. There is no question about his offensive game; despite being 'only' six feet tall, the Santa Rosa, California native has a ton of power to all fields and gets to it with almost laughable consistency, showing an exceptional awareness of the strike zone that reminds one of Joey Votto. He has a quick bat despite his stocky stature and can put the barrel on anything he swings at, but he's more than willing to take a walk if offered. He should also be very quick to the majors due to his pure aptitude for hitting. While I hesitate to project him for consistent 40-homer pop due to his size, it's easy to see him hitting 30-40 per year with on-base percentages over .400, not too dissimilar to Votto, though Vaughn hits right handed. He's unremarkable at first base and therefore doesn't provide any defensive value, but if he hits at all like he's expected to, that shouldn't matter at all. Vaughn signed at slot for $7.22 million and he's slashing .306/.420/.490 with three home runs and a 21/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Kannapolis.
2-45: RHP Matthew Thompson (Cypress Ranch HS [TX], my rank: 60)
Matthew Thompson wasn't even the best pitcher on his high school team this year, but that's because he and Rays competitive balance pick (#36 overall) JJ Goss formed the best one-two punch of any high school rotation in the country. Thompson entered the year slightly favored over Goss, though his teammate out-pitched him and ended up drafted nine spots ahead. However, Thompson still has tremendous upside. The Houston-area kid can sit in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a curveball that looked plus over the summer but which regressed a bit this spring, also adding a decent changeup. He has a very quick arm and a projectable 6'2" frame that makes it easy to dream on more velocity, and the hope is that pro coaching can get him more consistent with that potential plus curveball and get that changeup moving. He's a little old for the class, turning 19 in August, and he's fairly raw, but the upside here is that of a #2 or #3 starter. Vaughn may not take much patience, but Thompson will. Despite a Texas A&M commitment, he signed for $2.1 million, which was $450,000 above slot.
3-81: RHP Andrew Dalquist (Redondo Union HS [CA], my rank: 45)
I'm a big fan of Andrew Dalquist, as you can tell by his ranking here, 20 spots ahead of where he ranked on MLB.com and 22 spots ahead of Baseball America. He's a 6'1' righty from the Los Angeles area with a running, low 90's fastball, a curveball with good shape that needs to add power, a decent slider, and a changeup with fade. That all comes from an easy delivery that should enable him to maintain at above average command, and he has shown an aptitude for pitching that should enable him to get the most out of his abilities. The biggest knock on Dalquist is durability, as he's skinny and only recently had the velocity bump, but adding more strength to his frame should enable him to not only add and maintain velocity but add power to that curveball, giving him a good shot at being a mid-rotation starter. Committed to Arizona, he instead signed for $2 million, which was more than $1.2 million above slot.
4-110: OF James Beard (Loyd Star HS [MS], my rank: 122)
You want speed? Then James Beard is your guy. The high schooler from the tiny community of Loyd Star in rural Southwestern Mississippi can absolutely fly, possibly faster than any other player drafted this year. However, the rest of his game needs work. He has a clean swing from the right side and has made a lot of progress this year with the bat, adding some power and finding the barrel much more consistently, but that was against mediocre rural Mississippi high school competition and he is completely unproven against higher level pitching. Pro coaching could help him in a big way, though, and he could emerge from what will likely be a long run through the White Sox system a 10-15 homer hitter with solid on-base percentages and more stolen bases than you can count. Committed to Meridian Community College in Eastern Mississippi, he instead signed for $350,000, which was $177,800 below slot, and he's slashing .196/.255/.275 with two home runs, five stolen bases, and a 46/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the Arizona League.
5-140: LHP Dan Metzdorf (Boston College, unranked)
After three years of posting ERA's over five, Dan Metzdorf finally got it figured out as a senior in 2019 and was dominant for the Eagles. This year, he had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 72/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, including a 2.85 ERA and a 61/27 strikeout to walk ratio in Boston College's tough ACC slate. The Boston-area native is a funky 5'10" lefty who comes from a low three quarters arm slot, getting his outs more due to deception than pure stuff. He sits in the upper 80's with his fastball and adds a sweepy slider, and while his command is closer to average, he can move his stuff around and get outs by keeping hitters off balance. He has gotten into the low 90's at times, and if the White Sox want to move him to the bullpen, he could probably sit there and use his fastball/slider combination to get outs as a long reliever or better. Also if the Sox choose to go the relief route, the 23 year old senior should be quick to the majors. He signed for $10,000, which was $384,300 below slot, and he has a 4.32 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at rookie level Great Falls.
7-200: RHP Karan Patel (Texas-San Antonio, unranked)
First things first, Karan Patel and I were both born on January 2nd, 1997, so he's automatically cool in my book. Second, I can't confirm this 100%, but I believe the Houston-area native is the only Indian-American in affiliated professional baseball. The 6' righty had a 2.74 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 104/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 innings for UTSA this year, easily his best year for the Roadrunners. He sits in the low 90's with a loose arm that has been aided by years of playing cricket, and he has the makings of a potential future reliever or #5 starter. Patel signed for $10,000, which was $221,100 below slot, and he has a 3.38 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 25/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings with Metzdorf at Great Falls.
16-470: 3B DJ Gladney (Illiana Christian HS [IL], unranked)
There aren't too many major leaguers from the White Sox' side of the Chicago area, with the most notable active players being Curtis Granderson, Ben Zobrist, and Tanner Roark from the Illinois side and Jeff Samardzija and Sean Manaea from the Indiana side, but the they managed to find one here. DJ Gladney is an overslot sign in the 16th round out of Illiana Christian High School near Dyer, Indiana, a big bat with power potential. The 6'3" third baseman uses a big stride at the plate that causes his head to drop before the pitch, and his hands can be a bit slow to get going at times. However, when he does connect, he uses his strength to generate plus power, and some mechanical changes could help him get to it much more consistently in the minors. On the plus side, he didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft, making him young for his class. Committed to Eastern Kentucky, he signed for $225,000, which counts for $100,000 against the White Sox bonus pool, and he's slashing .309/.346/.547 with eight home runs and a 54/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games in the Arizona League, highlighting both his power and his issues with controlling the zone.
20-590: OF Cameron Simmons (Virginia, unranked)
Cameron Simmons' huge sophomore year at UVA in 2017 (9 HR, .352/.432/.563) set him up well for the 2018 draft, but he missed the year with a shoulder injury and did not sign as a Rangers 15th rounder. When he came back in 2019 for his senior year, he wasn't the same player, finishing at .260/.363/.389 with five home runs and a 51/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, and he dropped to the 20th round. I noted after watching him play during his big 2017 season that he had a great feel for the game with smooth actions around the field, but he looked stiffer at the plate in 2019 and all of his production dropped. The Royersford, Pennsylvania native maintains a solid feel for the strike zone and an athletic frame at 6'4", and hopefully the White Sox can fix whatever has been ailing him and get him back to 100%. If they do, they could have a nice fourth outfielder on their hands. Simmons signed for $85,000 and he's slashing .333/.410/.556 with two home runs and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between Great Falls and Kannapolis.
Also notable: Karan Patel (7-200), DJ Gladney (16-470), Cameron Simmons (20-590)
Personally, I think this was a great draft for the White Sox. Andrew Vaughn is one of the best pure hitters to come out of the college ranks in recent memory, and brings the luxury of both a high floor and a high ceiling as a Joey Votto type. After him, Matthew Thompson and Andrew Dalquist are a couple of upside high school arms who could be impact starters down the line, and James Beard brings some of the best speed you'll find on a baseball diamond anywhere. The White Sox had to draft six straight college seniors after popping Beard in the fourth round to pay for Thompson's and Dalquist's overslot bonuses, but that's perfectly find with me given the class they ended up with.
1-3: 1B Andrew Vaughn (California, my rank: 3)
I spoke in the Tigers' draft review about how Riley Greene is the best pure high school bat since Brendan Rodgers, but Andrew Vaughn is right up there with the best college bats in recent memory. Between the power, ability to get on base, and ability to project going forward, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman (now an Oriole) is the only bat in the last few drafts that I see as even comparable to Vaughn's, with perhaps Virginia's Pavin Smith (now a Diamondback) having a say in there as well. I mean really, Vaughn slashed .402/.531/.819 with 23 home runs and an 18/44 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore at California in 2018, then pitchers refused to pitch to him this year and his numbers "dipped" to .374/.539/.704 with 15 home runs and a 33/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games, including a .347/.508/.622 line in conference in the tough Pac-12. He also slashed .308/.368/.654 with five home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the elite Cape Cod League. There is no question about his offensive game; despite being 'only' six feet tall, the Santa Rosa, California native has a ton of power to all fields and gets to it with almost laughable consistency, showing an exceptional awareness of the strike zone that reminds one of Joey Votto. He has a quick bat despite his stocky stature and can put the barrel on anything he swings at, but he's more than willing to take a walk if offered. He should also be very quick to the majors due to his pure aptitude for hitting. While I hesitate to project him for consistent 40-homer pop due to his size, it's easy to see him hitting 30-40 per year with on-base percentages over .400, not too dissimilar to Votto, though Vaughn hits right handed. He's unremarkable at first base and therefore doesn't provide any defensive value, but if he hits at all like he's expected to, that shouldn't matter at all. Vaughn signed at slot for $7.22 million and he's slashing .306/.420/.490 with three home runs and a 21/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Kannapolis.
2-45: RHP Matthew Thompson (Cypress Ranch HS [TX], my rank: 60)
Matthew Thompson wasn't even the best pitcher on his high school team this year, but that's because he and Rays competitive balance pick (#36 overall) JJ Goss formed the best one-two punch of any high school rotation in the country. Thompson entered the year slightly favored over Goss, though his teammate out-pitched him and ended up drafted nine spots ahead. However, Thompson still has tremendous upside. The Houston-area kid can sit in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a curveball that looked plus over the summer but which regressed a bit this spring, also adding a decent changeup. He has a very quick arm and a projectable 6'2" frame that makes it easy to dream on more velocity, and the hope is that pro coaching can get him more consistent with that potential plus curveball and get that changeup moving. He's a little old for the class, turning 19 in August, and he's fairly raw, but the upside here is that of a #2 or #3 starter. Vaughn may not take much patience, but Thompson will. Despite a Texas A&M commitment, he signed for $2.1 million, which was $450,000 above slot.
3-81: RHP Andrew Dalquist (Redondo Union HS [CA], my rank: 45)
I'm a big fan of Andrew Dalquist, as you can tell by his ranking here, 20 spots ahead of where he ranked on MLB.com and 22 spots ahead of Baseball America. He's a 6'1' righty from the Los Angeles area with a running, low 90's fastball, a curveball with good shape that needs to add power, a decent slider, and a changeup with fade. That all comes from an easy delivery that should enable him to maintain at above average command, and he has shown an aptitude for pitching that should enable him to get the most out of his abilities. The biggest knock on Dalquist is durability, as he's skinny and only recently had the velocity bump, but adding more strength to his frame should enable him to not only add and maintain velocity but add power to that curveball, giving him a good shot at being a mid-rotation starter. Committed to Arizona, he instead signed for $2 million, which was more than $1.2 million above slot.
4-110: OF James Beard (Loyd Star HS [MS], my rank: 122)
You want speed? Then James Beard is your guy. The high schooler from the tiny community of Loyd Star in rural Southwestern Mississippi can absolutely fly, possibly faster than any other player drafted this year. However, the rest of his game needs work. He has a clean swing from the right side and has made a lot of progress this year with the bat, adding some power and finding the barrel much more consistently, but that was against mediocre rural Mississippi high school competition and he is completely unproven against higher level pitching. Pro coaching could help him in a big way, though, and he could emerge from what will likely be a long run through the White Sox system a 10-15 homer hitter with solid on-base percentages and more stolen bases than you can count. Committed to Meridian Community College in Eastern Mississippi, he instead signed for $350,000, which was $177,800 below slot, and he's slashing .196/.255/.275 with two home runs, five stolen bases, and a 46/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the Arizona League.
5-140: LHP Dan Metzdorf (Boston College, unranked)
After three years of posting ERA's over five, Dan Metzdorf finally got it figured out as a senior in 2019 and was dominant for the Eagles. This year, he had a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 72/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, including a 2.85 ERA and a 61/27 strikeout to walk ratio in Boston College's tough ACC slate. The Boston-area native is a funky 5'10" lefty who comes from a low three quarters arm slot, getting his outs more due to deception than pure stuff. He sits in the upper 80's with his fastball and adds a sweepy slider, and while his command is closer to average, he can move his stuff around and get outs by keeping hitters off balance. He has gotten into the low 90's at times, and if the White Sox want to move him to the bullpen, he could probably sit there and use his fastball/slider combination to get outs as a long reliever or better. Also if the Sox choose to go the relief route, the 23 year old senior should be quick to the majors. He signed for $10,000, which was $384,300 below slot, and he has a 4.32 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at rookie level Great Falls.
7-200: RHP Karan Patel (Texas-San Antonio, unranked)
First things first, Karan Patel and I were both born on January 2nd, 1997, so he's automatically cool in my book. Second, I can't confirm this 100%, but I believe the Houston-area native is the only Indian-American in affiliated professional baseball. The 6' righty had a 2.74 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 104/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 innings for UTSA this year, easily his best year for the Roadrunners. He sits in the low 90's with a loose arm that has been aided by years of playing cricket, and he has the makings of a potential future reliever or #5 starter. Patel signed for $10,000, which was $221,100 below slot, and he has a 3.38 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 25/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings with Metzdorf at Great Falls.
16-470: 3B DJ Gladney (Illiana Christian HS [IL], unranked)
There aren't too many major leaguers from the White Sox' side of the Chicago area, with the most notable active players being Curtis Granderson, Ben Zobrist, and Tanner Roark from the Illinois side and Jeff Samardzija and Sean Manaea from the Indiana side, but the they managed to find one here. DJ Gladney is an overslot sign in the 16th round out of Illiana Christian High School near Dyer, Indiana, a big bat with power potential. The 6'3" third baseman uses a big stride at the plate that causes his head to drop before the pitch, and his hands can be a bit slow to get going at times. However, when he does connect, he uses his strength to generate plus power, and some mechanical changes could help him get to it much more consistently in the minors. On the plus side, he didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft, making him young for his class. Committed to Eastern Kentucky, he signed for $225,000, which counts for $100,000 against the White Sox bonus pool, and he's slashing .309/.346/.547 with eight home runs and a 54/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games in the Arizona League, highlighting both his power and his issues with controlling the zone.
20-590: OF Cameron Simmons (Virginia, unranked)
Cameron Simmons' huge sophomore year at UVA in 2017 (9 HR, .352/.432/.563) set him up well for the 2018 draft, but he missed the year with a shoulder injury and did not sign as a Rangers 15th rounder. When he came back in 2019 for his senior year, he wasn't the same player, finishing at .260/.363/.389 with five home runs and a 51/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, and he dropped to the 20th round. I noted after watching him play during his big 2017 season that he had a great feel for the game with smooth actions around the field, but he looked stiffer at the plate in 2019 and all of his production dropped. The Royersford, Pennsylvania native maintains a solid feel for the strike zone and an athletic frame at 6'4", and hopefully the White Sox can fix whatever has been ailing him and get him back to 100%. If they do, they could have a nice fourth outfielder on their hands. Simmons signed for $85,000 and he's slashing .333/.410/.556 with two home runs and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between Great Falls and Kannapolis.
Friday, July 26, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Miami Marlins
First five rounds: JJ Bleday (1-4), Kameron Misner (CBA-35), Nasim Nunez (2-46), Peyton Burdick (3-82), Evan Edwards (4-111), Evan Fitterer (5-141)
Also notable: Bryan Hoeing (7-201), Zach King (13-381)
The Marlins went bats early, starting off with five straight to really inject some offense into their farm system. JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Peyton Burdick, and Evan Edwards bring a ton of power to the table, while Misner and Nasim Nunez will help them on the defensive side. They then grabbed three straight pitchers starting in the fifth round, most notably Evan Fitterer, a projectable high school arm who received second round money to divert him away from UCLA.
1-4: OF JJ Bleday (Vanderbilt, my rank: 5)
JJ Bleday entered the season a potential first round pick, one who had power potential and plate discipline but who hadn't quite put it together. He slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs as a sophomore then .311/.374/.500 with five home runs in the elite Cape Cod League that summer, giving hope that the power might show up in 2019. Well, it did. The Panama City, Florida native was the star power bat for the College World Series-winning Vanderbilt Commodores, slashing .347/.465/.701 with 27 home runs and a 58/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games, leading the nation in home runs despite playing through Vanderbilt's tough SEC schedule. He's a 6'3" left handed hitter that generates a ton of power from a smooth, quick swing, and the ball really jumps off his bat. With his combination of power, feel for the barrel, and plate discipline, he should be a safe bet to be an impact hitter at the next level, one who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he's decent in right field but has a cannon arm. Bleday signed for $6.67 million, about $10,000 above slot, and he's slashing .148/.179/.259 with a home run and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games in an aggressive assignment to High A Jupiter.
CBA-35: OF Kameron Misner (Missouri, my rank: 29)
Kameron Misner, like Bleday, came into the season a potential first round pick, but his up and down junior season left evaluators feeling like they knew less about him than when the season started. He slashed .360/.497/.576 as a sophomore last year but broke his foot shortly into conference play and never got to prove himself against better pitching, so this year was going to be his chance. However, he dipped to just .286/.440/.481 with ten home runs and a 58/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Tigers, including a head-scratchingly bad .222/.353/.315 line in SEC play. Misner is a great athlete at 6'4" that shows power from a quick bat, and given his size you can only imagine him adding more. He also has good plate discipline and his patience at the plate enabled him to walk in 20.3% of his plate appearances this year, though he did also strike out in 21.8%. He's also a great defender in the outfield and could stick in center field with his speed and arm strength, giving all the more reason to project him as a potential five tool player. That's why the bad run through SEC play is just so frustrating, because Misner is so close to being a star. However, because he's a college bat that has struggled against advanced pitching, there are questions as to whether he'll actually figure it out, and the Marlins will hope to get him there. Misner signed for $2.12 million, about $20,000 above slot, and he's slashing .118/.375/.118 with a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over five games in the complex level Gulf Coast League.
2-46: SS Nasim Nunez (Collins Hill HS [GA], my rank: 68)
Nasim Nunez, aside from having an 80-grade baseball name, is fun to watch. The Atlanta-area high schooler is one of the best defenders in the class, easily gliding around the infield and making highlight-reel plays at shortstop. That defensive ability will give his bat all the time in the world to develop, and if he hits at all, he should be at least a utility man. However, the bat does have a long way to go. Listed at 5'9" and 160 pounds, Nunez lacks the ability to impact the ball consistently, and he likely won't ever hit for much power at all. He's a switch hitter with a smoother swing from the right side, but it's still a ground ball and line drive oriented swing. Getting on base will be the key for helping him deploy his easy plus speed, so we'll see how his plate discipline develops in pro ball. Originally committed to Clemson, Nunez signed for $2.2 million, which was $580,000 above slot, and he's slashing .227/.350/.278 with 12 stolen bases and a 27/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the Gulf Coast League.
3-82: OF Peyton Burdick (Wright State, unranked)
Peyton Burdick has consistently gotten better at Wright State despite missing all of 2017, what would have been his sophomore season, with Tommy John surgery. This year, as a redshirt junior, he slashed an incredible .407/.538/.729 with 15 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 35/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. Burdick has a ton of whip in his swing that produces plenty of power, and he also has strong enough plate discipline and feel for the barrel that he can get to it more often than not. While the great numbers came against weaker competition in the Horizon League, the Cincinnati-area native also held his own on the Cape, where he slashed .252/.351/.435 with five home runs in 38 games. He also runs well and plays good defense in the outfield, and showing a good all-around game. On the down side, he turned 22 in February, giving him less development time than some of his peers drafted in the same range. Overall, because his skills were amplified a bit in the Horizon League, Burdick profiles as an average all-around player who can hit 20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages if everything breaks right and he can adjust to pro pitching well. He signed for $397,500, which was $346,700 below slot, and he's slashing .299/.385/.500 with four home runs and a 34/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between short season Batavia and Class A Clinton.
4-111: 1B Evan Edwards (North Carolina State, unranked)
One of the best hitters in a stacked NC State lineup this year, Evan Edwards brings more power to this power-heavy draft class. As a senior this year, the Greensboro, North Carolina native slashed .330/.455/.604 with 14 home runs and a 47/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, leading the team in on-base percentage and finishing second to Angels first rounder Will Wilson in just about everything else. Edwards has a fairly long swing, but his quick hands help get the bat through the zone and help him hit for plus raw power, which he gets to in games and against quality ACC pitching. As a first baseman, the pressure will be on his bat, but with his combination of power and plate discipline, he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with middling on-base percentages if things break right. One thing to watch will be his strikeout rate, as the length in his swing does cause some swing and miss and will be exploited in pro ball. He's also a senior who turned 22 shortly after the draft and stands at "just" six feet tall, so he's not quite a guarantee. Edwards signed for $122,500, which was $400,100 below slot, and he's slashing .272/.359/.419 with four home runs and a 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games between Batavia and Clinton.
5-141: RHP Evan Fitterer (Aliso Niguel HS [CA], my rank: 78)
This was the big overslot signing, as the Marlins gave Evan Fitterer second round money here in the fifth round. Fitterer was a high schooler from Southern California armed with a low 90's fastball, two breaking balls, and a changeup that might be his best pitch. He's projectable at 6'3" and with a quick arm, and he also commands everything pretty well. The changeup and command are both very advanced for a high school pitcher, though he did turn 19 in June and is old for the class. He also occasionally sees velocity dips, though that should be alleviated once he fills out a little more and gets on a pro throwing program. Overall, he doesn't have the biggest upside but profiles as a mid-rotation starter if everything comes together, with a key for him being sharpening one or both of his average breaking balls. Committed to UCLA, Fitterer signed for $1.5 million, over $1.1 million above slot, and he has a 1.04 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an 8/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 innings in the Gulf Coast League.
7-201: RHP Bryan Hoeing (Louisville, unranked)
Bryan Hoeing has been great in a swingman role for Louisville, but the Marlins are likely to use him as a full time reliever. In 2019, the Batesville, Indiana native had a 3.00 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 75/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings, making 17 relief appearances and five starts. He's a big guy at 6'6" and he uses that size to fire a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and a good splitter. He doesn't throw with much effort, but the stuff is just a bit light if he wants to remain a starter in pro ball and it will play up in the bullpen full time. A redshirt junior, he already turned 22 in October. He signed at slot for $229,700, and he has a 1.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 3/2 strikeout to walk ratio through six innings for Batavia.
13-381: LHP Zach King (Vanderbilt, unranked)
Zach King never quite put it together for Vanderbilt, but he has some upside if the Marlins can help him get on track. The Tennessean from just outside the Nashville area had a 6.18 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and a 47/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings, showing very good stuff but ultimately getting hit harder than he should have. He's a 6'6" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, albeit one without that sharp break that you want, and those two pitches enabled him to get a bunch of strikeouts in the SEC. However, his command comes and goes and he was hit when he fell behind in the count, so the Marlins will want him to improve there to end up a middle reliever down the line. King signed for $125,000 and has thrown three shutout innings, striking out three, in the Gulf Coast League so far.
Also notable: Bryan Hoeing (7-201), Zach King (13-381)
The Marlins went bats early, starting off with five straight to really inject some offense into their farm system. JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Peyton Burdick, and Evan Edwards bring a ton of power to the table, while Misner and Nasim Nunez will help them on the defensive side. They then grabbed three straight pitchers starting in the fifth round, most notably Evan Fitterer, a projectable high school arm who received second round money to divert him away from UCLA.
1-4: OF JJ Bleday (Vanderbilt, my rank: 5)
JJ Bleday entered the season a potential first round pick, one who had power potential and plate discipline but who hadn't quite put it together. He slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs as a sophomore then .311/.374/.500 with five home runs in the elite Cape Cod League that summer, giving hope that the power might show up in 2019. Well, it did. The Panama City, Florida native was the star power bat for the College World Series-winning Vanderbilt Commodores, slashing .347/.465/.701 with 27 home runs and a 58/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games, leading the nation in home runs despite playing through Vanderbilt's tough SEC schedule. He's a 6'3" left handed hitter that generates a ton of power from a smooth, quick swing, and the ball really jumps off his bat. With his combination of power, feel for the barrel, and plate discipline, he should be a safe bet to be an impact hitter at the next level, one who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he's decent in right field but has a cannon arm. Bleday signed for $6.67 million, about $10,000 above slot, and he's slashing .148/.179/.259 with a home run and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games in an aggressive assignment to High A Jupiter.
CBA-35: OF Kameron Misner (Missouri, my rank: 29)
Kameron Misner, like Bleday, came into the season a potential first round pick, but his up and down junior season left evaluators feeling like they knew less about him than when the season started. He slashed .360/.497/.576 as a sophomore last year but broke his foot shortly into conference play and never got to prove himself against better pitching, so this year was going to be his chance. However, he dipped to just .286/.440/.481 with ten home runs and a 58/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Tigers, including a head-scratchingly bad .222/.353/.315 line in SEC play. Misner is a great athlete at 6'4" that shows power from a quick bat, and given his size you can only imagine him adding more. He also has good plate discipline and his patience at the plate enabled him to walk in 20.3% of his plate appearances this year, though he did also strike out in 21.8%. He's also a great defender in the outfield and could stick in center field with his speed and arm strength, giving all the more reason to project him as a potential five tool player. That's why the bad run through SEC play is just so frustrating, because Misner is so close to being a star. However, because he's a college bat that has struggled against advanced pitching, there are questions as to whether he'll actually figure it out, and the Marlins will hope to get him there. Misner signed for $2.12 million, about $20,000 above slot, and he's slashing .118/.375/.118 with a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over five games in the complex level Gulf Coast League.
2-46: SS Nasim Nunez (Collins Hill HS [GA], my rank: 68)
Nasim Nunez, aside from having an 80-grade baseball name, is fun to watch. The Atlanta-area high schooler is one of the best defenders in the class, easily gliding around the infield and making highlight-reel plays at shortstop. That defensive ability will give his bat all the time in the world to develop, and if he hits at all, he should be at least a utility man. However, the bat does have a long way to go. Listed at 5'9" and 160 pounds, Nunez lacks the ability to impact the ball consistently, and he likely won't ever hit for much power at all. He's a switch hitter with a smoother swing from the right side, but it's still a ground ball and line drive oriented swing. Getting on base will be the key for helping him deploy his easy plus speed, so we'll see how his plate discipline develops in pro ball. Originally committed to Clemson, Nunez signed for $2.2 million, which was $580,000 above slot, and he's slashing .227/.350/.278 with 12 stolen bases and a 27/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the Gulf Coast League.
3-82: OF Peyton Burdick (Wright State, unranked)
Peyton Burdick has consistently gotten better at Wright State despite missing all of 2017, what would have been his sophomore season, with Tommy John surgery. This year, as a redshirt junior, he slashed an incredible .407/.538/.729 with 15 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 35/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. Burdick has a ton of whip in his swing that produces plenty of power, and he also has strong enough plate discipline and feel for the barrel that he can get to it more often than not. While the great numbers came against weaker competition in the Horizon League, the Cincinnati-area native also held his own on the Cape, where he slashed .252/.351/.435 with five home runs in 38 games. He also runs well and plays good defense in the outfield, and showing a good all-around game. On the down side, he turned 22 in February, giving him less development time than some of his peers drafted in the same range. Overall, because his skills were amplified a bit in the Horizon League, Burdick profiles as an average all-around player who can hit 20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages if everything breaks right and he can adjust to pro pitching well. He signed for $397,500, which was $346,700 below slot, and he's slashing .299/.385/.500 with four home runs and a 34/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between short season Batavia and Class A Clinton.
4-111: 1B Evan Edwards (North Carolina State, unranked)
One of the best hitters in a stacked NC State lineup this year, Evan Edwards brings more power to this power-heavy draft class. As a senior this year, the Greensboro, North Carolina native slashed .330/.455/.604 with 14 home runs and a 47/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, leading the team in on-base percentage and finishing second to Angels first rounder Will Wilson in just about everything else. Edwards has a fairly long swing, but his quick hands help get the bat through the zone and help him hit for plus raw power, which he gets to in games and against quality ACC pitching. As a first baseman, the pressure will be on his bat, but with his combination of power and plate discipline, he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with middling on-base percentages if things break right. One thing to watch will be his strikeout rate, as the length in his swing does cause some swing and miss and will be exploited in pro ball. He's also a senior who turned 22 shortly after the draft and stands at "just" six feet tall, so he's not quite a guarantee. Edwards signed for $122,500, which was $400,100 below slot, and he's slashing .272/.359/.419 with four home runs and a 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games between Batavia and Clinton.
5-141: RHP Evan Fitterer (Aliso Niguel HS [CA], my rank: 78)
This was the big overslot signing, as the Marlins gave Evan Fitterer second round money here in the fifth round. Fitterer was a high schooler from Southern California armed with a low 90's fastball, two breaking balls, and a changeup that might be his best pitch. He's projectable at 6'3" and with a quick arm, and he also commands everything pretty well. The changeup and command are both very advanced for a high school pitcher, though he did turn 19 in June and is old for the class. He also occasionally sees velocity dips, though that should be alleviated once he fills out a little more and gets on a pro throwing program. Overall, he doesn't have the biggest upside but profiles as a mid-rotation starter if everything comes together, with a key for him being sharpening one or both of his average breaking balls. Committed to UCLA, Fitterer signed for $1.5 million, over $1.1 million above slot, and he has a 1.04 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an 8/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 innings in the Gulf Coast League.
7-201: RHP Bryan Hoeing (Louisville, unranked)
Bryan Hoeing has been great in a swingman role for Louisville, but the Marlins are likely to use him as a full time reliever. In 2019, the Batesville, Indiana native had a 3.00 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 75/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings, making 17 relief appearances and five starts. He's a big guy at 6'6" and he uses that size to fire a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and a good splitter. He doesn't throw with much effort, but the stuff is just a bit light if he wants to remain a starter in pro ball and it will play up in the bullpen full time. A redshirt junior, he already turned 22 in October. He signed at slot for $229,700, and he has a 1.50 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 3/2 strikeout to walk ratio through six innings for Batavia.
13-381: LHP Zach King (Vanderbilt, unranked)
Zach King never quite put it together for Vanderbilt, but he has some upside if the Marlins can help him get on track. The Tennessean from just outside the Nashville area had a 6.18 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and a 47/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings, showing very good stuff but ultimately getting hit harder than he should have. He's a 6'6" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, albeit one without that sharp break that you want, and those two pitches enabled him to get a bunch of strikeouts in the SEC. However, his command comes and goes and he was hit when he fell behind in the count, so the Marlins will want him to improve there to end up a middle reliever down the line. King signed for $125,000 and has thrown three shutout innings, striking out three, in the Gulf Coast League so far.
Thursday, July 25, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Detroit Tigers
First five rounds: Riley Greene (1-5), Nick Quintana (2-47), Andre Lipcius (3-83), Ryan Kreidler (4-112), Bryant Packard (5-142)
Also notable: Cooper Johnson (6-172), Zack Hess (7-202), Austin Bergner (9-262), Cade Doughty (39-1162)
The Tigers' draft strategy was very clear-cut here. After loading up their farm system with tons of high upside pitchers like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser, and Tarik Skubal, they decided to flip the script and grab exclusively hitters this year, taking bats with their first six picks. Between potential lineup-anchor Riley Greene, power bats Nick Quintana, Andre Lipcius, and Bryant Packard, and good defenders like Ryan Kreidler and Cooper Johnson, they really covered their bases. I also really like the seventh round selection of Zack Hess, who could be a fast moving reliever with set-up man or even closer upside. Additionally, they didn't mess around with the bonus pool, signing nine of their first ten picks to exactly slot value deals.
1-5: OF Riley Greene (Hagerty HS [FL], my rank: 6)
While Bobby Witt Jr. garnered a lot of attention as the clear best high school player in the class, Riley Greene might have the best pure high school bat since Brendan Rodgers, who went third overall to the Rockies in 2015 and grew up less than a half hour away. Greene, from the Orlando area like Rodgers, can just flat out hit. He has a big, power producing swing that would typically cause swing and miss issues in most kids his age, but he has exceptional feel for the barrel and still makes consistent hard contact against quality pitching, even against the best arms on the showcase circuit. Add in his excellent plate discipline, and you've got a kid who is probably an even safer bet to hit in pro ball than Rodgers. His raw, batting practice power might not quite stack up with the Brett Baty's or Rece Hinds' of the class, but he's so efficient about getting to it in games that he still projects for 25-30 home runs annually to go along with the high on-base percentages he looks to put up. That gives him the overall outlook of a middle of the order, impact hitter. Defensively, he's just average in left field, but it's the bat the Tigers are buying. Honestly, I see some Juan Soto in him. Committed to Florida, Greene instead signed with the Tigers at slot for $6.18 million and he's slashing .322/.413/.500 with three home runs and a 29/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and short season Connecticut.
2-47: SS Nick Quintana (Arizona, my rank: 51)
Nick Quintana was a well-regarded recruit coming out of a Las Vegas high school and ranked #109 on my 2016 draft rankings, then all he did was get better and better each year at Arizona. He had his best year this year, when he slashed .342/.462/.626 with 15 home runs and a 54/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, including a very strong .313/.434/.661 in-conference in a tough Pac-12 Conference. Quintana is only 5'10" but he hits for plenty of power, and he got to it frequently this year. However, his hit tool is unproven, as his 19.6% strikeout rate was a little high and he also owns a modest .230/.312/.423 line with eleven home runs over two years in the elite Cape Cod League (.259/.351/.435 in the more recent season). There is some length to his swing, though I do think he'll be able to make everything play up in pro ball. Overall, he projects for 25 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages, which still makes him an impact hitter if not a true middle of the lineup guy. The Tigers also picked Quintana up as a shortstop, which seems unlikely given that he played third base for Arizona, but he's a very good defender there and could conceivably move over to shortstop if he can figure out a way to improve his range. Third base is his most likely destination, but he'll certainly be a net-positive there. Quintana signed at slot for $1.58 million and is slashing .210/.286/.290 with a home run and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at Class A West Michigan so far.
3-83: 3B Andre Lipcius (Tennessee, unranked)
Like Quintana, Andre Lipcius has hit better and better each year in college. The Williamsburg, Virginia native had his best year this season, slashing .308/.399/.586 with 17 home runs and a 33/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games for Tennessee and still maintaining a .322/.404/.534 line in SEC play. He also slashed .313/.391/.456 in the Cape Cod League this past summer, showing that his production plays up against advanced competition. Lipcius has a big, whippy swing that produces a lot of power, but he managed to keep his strikeout rate down at just 11.9%, which is certainly an encouraging sign for a kid with his profile. Still, the strikeouts will be important to watch as he moves through the minors, but in all he has similar offensive upside to Quintana. However, the two differ on defense despite playing the same position, as Lipcius is extremely slow and has limited range at third base despite a strong arm. He may be able to stick there if he continues to improve, but with Quintana likely to end up as the third baseman down the line and the two expected to follow similar timelines, first base is a serious possibility, which will put pressure on the bat. Lipcius signed at slot for $733,100 and is slashing .267/.331/.345 with a home run and a 26/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 30 games with Quintana at West Michigan, interestingly seeing some time at second base.
4-112: 3B Ryan Kreidler (UCLA, unranked)
With guys like Michael Toglia, Chase Strumpf, and Garrett Mitchell around you in the lineup for the #1 team in college baseball for most of the season, it's easy to slip under the radar even with good performance. Ryan Kreidler slashed .300/.370/.502 with nine home runs and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games for the Bruins, though those numbers dipped slightly to .282/.336/.470 in conference games in the Pac-12. He's 6'4" and that helps him hit for some power, but with the dip his numbers took in conference and the .229/.300/.339 line he put up on the Cape, he has something to prove in pro ball. His plate discipline is so-so and he's more of a line drive hitter anyways, so he'll have to take a step forward with his ability to barrel up the ball with loft if he wants to eventually reach average power. Overall, that's an offensive outlook of 10-15 home runs per season with middling on-base percentages, so more of a utility infielder projection. Defensively, he's quite good, as he has both the defensive actions and arm to profile anywhere in the infield. He'll get run out as a shortstop, where he has a chance to stick, but he could also be a well above average defender at third base if he ends up there. That will buy the bat some time. The Davis, California native signed at slot for $517,400, and he is slashing .253/.362/.356 with a home run and a 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Connecticut.
5-142: OF Bryant Packard (East Carolina, my rank: 109)
When he's going right, Bryant Packard can really hit. As a sophomore at ECU in 2018, he slashed .406/.462/.671 with 14 home runs, then went on to slash .305/.421/.576 with four home runs and a 17/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games on the Cape. However, he took a small step back in 2019 and finished at .358/.444/.550 with seven home runs and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, still great numbers but comparably pedestrian against his 2018 season. His streakiness might stem from his long swing and so-so plate discipline, and he struck out in 17.1% of his plate appearances this year. He seems like the kind of guy where pro coaching could turn him around, as that Cape line shows that he's not afraid of advanced pitching and the power he packs in his 6'3" frame is very real. Defensively, the Greenville, North Carolina native isn't much, so he'll have to hit to move up. He signed at slot for $386,600 and is slashing .328/.380/.500 with two home runs and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.
6-172: C Cooper Johnson (Mississippi, unranked)
Cooper Johnson has had an interesting career trajectory. A top prospect out of high school in the Chicago area, he had a shot to go on Day One of the 2016 Draft and ranked 73rd on my list that year. However, he was unsignable and packed it up for Ole Miss, where he slashed just .213/.301/.269 as a freshman and .235/.329/.324 as a sophomore. Heading to the Cape after both seasons, he combined to hit just .145/.275/.145 over 32 games. However, while he didn't quite get his stock back to where it was three years ago, Johnson managed to right the ship a bit this year and finished at a respectable .271/.371/.449 with eight home runs and the same 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio as Packard over 63 games. Perhaps most importantly, he maintained those numbers in SEC play, where he slashed .284/.373/.431. He starts with his hands up over his head at the plate, and he uses his uppercut swing to hit for average power when he's able to get into one. However, the swing is still somewhat long and outside of his decent numbers in SEC play this year, he's completely unproven against higher level pitching. That's okay for now, because he's a catcher with a cannon arm who can handle himself behind the plate. He has a very good chance to stick back there and if he can continue the progress he made in 2019 and find the barrel consistently in pro ball, he could be a backup catcher at the big league level. Johnson signed at slot for $291,400, and he's slashing .226/.355/.306 with a 20/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.
7-202: RHP Zack Hess (LSU, my rank: 90)
Ah, the good ole' premium arm with premium stuff who just hasn't gotten results. Zack Hess was draft eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and ranked 102nd on my list, but he elected to go back to Baton Rouge to try to bump up his stock after his 5.05 ERA that year. However, this year was more of the same as he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the LSU, and he finished with a 4.71 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an 82/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings. The Lynchburg, Virginia native is a 6'6" righty with a ton of arm strength, firing his fastball in the low to mid 90's as a starter and bumping it to the upper 90's in relief. He also hurls a plus slider that is devastating in short spurts, though his lack of a changeup caused it to play down in the rotation. Hess also has awkward mechanics and has battled his command throughout his time in Baton Rouge, so his new Tigers organization is going to need to smooth him out there. Honestly, I see no reason for Detroit to try him as a starter at all, and they should just stick him in the bullpen and let him rocket to the majors. Though he's a junior, he turned 22 in February and is the age of a senior, so the bullpen thing becomes even better of an idea. Hess signed at slot for $227,700 and he has a 2.53 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between complex ball, Connecticut, and West Michigan, where he has worked exclusively in relief.
9-262: RHP Austin Bergner (North Carolina, unranked)
Bergner, like a lot of the guys the Tigers drafted this year, was well-regarded in high school, but he opted to attend UNC instead. Draft eligible as a sophomore, he elected to return for his junior year, where he had a 4.94 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. The Orlando-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a very good changeup that can really miss bats when he locates it, though his curveball is more average to a bit below. His command comes and goes and he can get hit hard when it's not on, and with the effort with which he throws and his age (turned 22 in May), he might be better off in the bullpen. However, if the Tigers are willing to be patient, they could make him a #4 or #5 starter if he refines his curve and command. Bergner signed at slot for $157,200 and has a 7.20 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between complex ball and Connecticut.
39-1162: SS Cade Doughty (Denham Springs HS [LA], my rank: 81)
With a talent level that had him in the second or third round, Cade Doughty fell to the 39th because of signability and he'll make the short trip down I-12 to LSU for school. The Baton Rouge-area high schooler has very good bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel, a semi-projectable frame at 6'1", and enough whip in his swing to have some power projection. His mechanics aren't the most consistent at this point, but he finds the barrel often enough that he should be able to transition fairly smoothly to whatever tweaks the Tigers (the LSU kind) make. He's also a very good defender at third base, and he could also handle second base or the outfield. I find him very interesting and he could make an immediate impact on the LSU program.
Also notable: Cooper Johnson (6-172), Zack Hess (7-202), Austin Bergner (9-262), Cade Doughty (39-1162)
The Tigers' draft strategy was very clear-cut here. After loading up their farm system with tons of high upside pitchers like Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser, and Tarik Skubal, they decided to flip the script and grab exclusively hitters this year, taking bats with their first six picks. Between potential lineup-anchor Riley Greene, power bats Nick Quintana, Andre Lipcius, and Bryant Packard, and good defenders like Ryan Kreidler and Cooper Johnson, they really covered their bases. I also really like the seventh round selection of Zack Hess, who could be a fast moving reliever with set-up man or even closer upside. Additionally, they didn't mess around with the bonus pool, signing nine of their first ten picks to exactly slot value deals.
1-5: OF Riley Greene (Hagerty HS [FL], my rank: 6)
While Bobby Witt Jr. garnered a lot of attention as the clear best high school player in the class, Riley Greene might have the best pure high school bat since Brendan Rodgers, who went third overall to the Rockies in 2015 and grew up less than a half hour away. Greene, from the Orlando area like Rodgers, can just flat out hit. He has a big, power producing swing that would typically cause swing and miss issues in most kids his age, but he has exceptional feel for the barrel and still makes consistent hard contact against quality pitching, even against the best arms on the showcase circuit. Add in his excellent plate discipline, and you've got a kid who is probably an even safer bet to hit in pro ball than Rodgers. His raw, batting practice power might not quite stack up with the Brett Baty's or Rece Hinds' of the class, but he's so efficient about getting to it in games that he still projects for 25-30 home runs annually to go along with the high on-base percentages he looks to put up. That gives him the overall outlook of a middle of the order, impact hitter. Defensively, he's just average in left field, but it's the bat the Tigers are buying. Honestly, I see some Juan Soto in him. Committed to Florida, Greene instead signed with the Tigers at slot for $6.18 million and he's slashing .322/.413/.500 with three home runs and a 29/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and short season Connecticut.
2-47: SS Nick Quintana (Arizona, my rank: 51)
Nick Quintana was a well-regarded recruit coming out of a Las Vegas high school and ranked #109 on my 2016 draft rankings, then all he did was get better and better each year at Arizona. He had his best year this year, when he slashed .342/.462/.626 with 15 home runs and a 54/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, including a very strong .313/.434/.661 in-conference in a tough Pac-12 Conference. Quintana is only 5'10" but he hits for plenty of power, and he got to it frequently this year. However, his hit tool is unproven, as his 19.6% strikeout rate was a little high and he also owns a modest .230/.312/.423 line with eleven home runs over two years in the elite Cape Cod League (.259/.351/.435 in the more recent season). There is some length to his swing, though I do think he'll be able to make everything play up in pro ball. Overall, he projects for 25 home runs per season and middling on-base percentages, which still makes him an impact hitter if not a true middle of the lineup guy. The Tigers also picked Quintana up as a shortstop, which seems unlikely given that he played third base for Arizona, but he's a very good defender there and could conceivably move over to shortstop if he can figure out a way to improve his range. Third base is his most likely destination, but he'll certainly be a net-positive there. Quintana signed at slot for $1.58 million and is slashing .210/.286/.290 with a home run and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at Class A West Michigan so far.
3-83: 3B Andre Lipcius (Tennessee, unranked)
Like Quintana, Andre Lipcius has hit better and better each year in college. The Williamsburg, Virginia native had his best year this season, slashing .308/.399/.586 with 17 home runs and a 33/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games for Tennessee and still maintaining a .322/.404/.534 line in SEC play. He also slashed .313/.391/.456 in the Cape Cod League this past summer, showing that his production plays up against advanced competition. Lipcius has a big, whippy swing that produces a lot of power, but he managed to keep his strikeout rate down at just 11.9%, which is certainly an encouraging sign for a kid with his profile. Still, the strikeouts will be important to watch as he moves through the minors, but in all he has similar offensive upside to Quintana. However, the two differ on defense despite playing the same position, as Lipcius is extremely slow and has limited range at third base despite a strong arm. He may be able to stick there if he continues to improve, but with Quintana likely to end up as the third baseman down the line and the two expected to follow similar timelines, first base is a serious possibility, which will put pressure on the bat. Lipcius signed at slot for $733,100 and is slashing .267/.331/.345 with a home run and a 26/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 30 games with Quintana at West Michigan, interestingly seeing some time at second base.
4-112: 3B Ryan Kreidler (UCLA, unranked)
With guys like Michael Toglia, Chase Strumpf, and Garrett Mitchell around you in the lineup for the #1 team in college baseball for most of the season, it's easy to slip under the radar even with good performance. Ryan Kreidler slashed .300/.370/.502 with nine home runs and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games for the Bruins, though those numbers dipped slightly to .282/.336/.470 in conference games in the Pac-12. He's 6'4" and that helps him hit for some power, but with the dip his numbers took in conference and the .229/.300/.339 line he put up on the Cape, he has something to prove in pro ball. His plate discipline is so-so and he's more of a line drive hitter anyways, so he'll have to take a step forward with his ability to barrel up the ball with loft if he wants to eventually reach average power. Overall, that's an offensive outlook of 10-15 home runs per season with middling on-base percentages, so more of a utility infielder projection. Defensively, he's quite good, as he has both the defensive actions and arm to profile anywhere in the infield. He'll get run out as a shortstop, where he has a chance to stick, but he could also be a well above average defender at third base if he ends up there. That will buy the bat some time. The Davis, California native signed at slot for $517,400, and he is slashing .253/.362/.356 with a home run and a 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Connecticut.
5-142: OF Bryant Packard (East Carolina, my rank: 109)
When he's going right, Bryant Packard can really hit. As a sophomore at ECU in 2018, he slashed .406/.462/.671 with 14 home runs, then went on to slash .305/.421/.576 with four home runs and a 17/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games on the Cape. However, he took a small step back in 2019 and finished at .358/.444/.550 with seven home runs and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, still great numbers but comparably pedestrian against his 2018 season. His streakiness might stem from his long swing and so-so plate discipline, and he struck out in 17.1% of his plate appearances this year. He seems like the kind of guy where pro coaching could turn him around, as that Cape line shows that he's not afraid of advanced pitching and the power he packs in his 6'3" frame is very real. Defensively, the Greenville, North Carolina native isn't much, so he'll have to hit to move up. He signed at slot for $386,600 and is slashing .328/.380/.500 with two home runs and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.
6-172: C Cooper Johnson (Mississippi, unranked)
Cooper Johnson has had an interesting career trajectory. A top prospect out of high school in the Chicago area, he had a shot to go on Day One of the 2016 Draft and ranked 73rd on my list that year. However, he was unsignable and packed it up for Ole Miss, where he slashed just .213/.301/.269 as a freshman and .235/.329/.324 as a sophomore. Heading to the Cape after both seasons, he combined to hit just .145/.275/.145 over 32 games. However, while he didn't quite get his stock back to where it was three years ago, Johnson managed to right the ship a bit this year and finished at a respectable .271/.371/.449 with eight home runs and the same 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio as Packard over 63 games. Perhaps most importantly, he maintained those numbers in SEC play, where he slashed .284/.373/.431. He starts with his hands up over his head at the plate, and he uses his uppercut swing to hit for average power when he's able to get into one. However, the swing is still somewhat long and outside of his decent numbers in SEC play this year, he's completely unproven against higher level pitching. That's okay for now, because he's a catcher with a cannon arm who can handle himself behind the plate. He has a very good chance to stick back there and if he can continue the progress he made in 2019 and find the barrel consistently in pro ball, he could be a backup catcher at the big league level. Johnson signed at slot for $291,400, and he's slashing .226/.355/.306 with a 20/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games between Connecticut and West Michigan.
7-202: RHP Zack Hess (LSU, my rank: 90)
Ah, the good ole' premium arm with premium stuff who just hasn't gotten results. Zack Hess was draft eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and ranked 102nd on my list, but he elected to go back to Baton Rouge to try to bump up his stock after his 5.05 ERA that year. However, this year was more of the same as he bounced between the rotation and the bullpen for the LSU, and he finished with a 4.71 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and an 82/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings. The Lynchburg, Virginia native is a 6'6" righty with a ton of arm strength, firing his fastball in the low to mid 90's as a starter and bumping it to the upper 90's in relief. He also hurls a plus slider that is devastating in short spurts, though his lack of a changeup caused it to play down in the rotation. Hess also has awkward mechanics and has battled his command throughout his time in Baton Rouge, so his new Tigers organization is going to need to smooth him out there. Honestly, I see no reason for Detroit to try him as a starter at all, and they should just stick him in the bullpen and let him rocket to the majors. Though he's a junior, he turned 22 in February and is the age of a senior, so the bullpen thing becomes even better of an idea. Hess signed at slot for $227,700 and he has a 2.53 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings between complex ball, Connecticut, and West Michigan, where he has worked exclusively in relief.
9-262: RHP Austin Bergner (North Carolina, unranked)
Bergner, like a lot of the guys the Tigers drafted this year, was well-regarded in high school, but he opted to attend UNC instead. Draft eligible as a sophomore, he elected to return for his junior year, where he had a 4.94 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. The Orlando-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a very good changeup that can really miss bats when he locates it, though his curveball is more average to a bit below. His command comes and goes and he can get hit hard when it's not on, and with the effort with which he throws and his age (turned 22 in May), he might be better off in the bullpen. However, if the Tigers are willing to be patient, they could make him a #4 or #5 starter if he refines his curve and command. Bergner signed at slot for $157,200 and has a 7.20 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between complex ball and Connecticut.
39-1162: SS Cade Doughty (Denham Springs HS [LA], my rank: 81)
With a talent level that had him in the second or third round, Cade Doughty fell to the 39th because of signability and he'll make the short trip down I-12 to LSU for school. The Baton Rouge-area high schooler has very good bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel, a semi-projectable frame at 6'1", and enough whip in his swing to have some power projection. His mechanics aren't the most consistent at this point, but he finds the barrel often enough that he should be able to transition fairly smoothly to whatever tweaks the Tigers (the LSU kind) make. He's also a very good defender at third base, and he could also handle second base or the outfield. I find him very interesting and he could make an immediate impact on the LSU program.
Monday, July 22, 2019
2019 Draft Review: San Diego Padres
First five rounds: CJ Abrams (1-6), Joshua Mears (2-48), Logan Driscoll (CBB-73), Hudson Head (3-84), Matt Brash (4-113), Chris Lincoln (5-143)
Also notable: Drake Fellows (6-173), 3B Jack Stronach (21-623), Maurice Hampton (23-683)
The Padres have high hopes for everyone they drafted this year, but the focus really comes down to two players: first rounder CJ Abrams and third rounder Hudson Head. Abrams is an ultra-athletic shortstop with a chance to be the team's future leadoff man, while Head signed a massive overslot bonus in the third round as a kid oozing with upside. Every other pick this year, save for 14th rounder Bodi Rascon, was at or below slot in order to save up for Head's deal. In all, there is a ton of upside in this draft, but aside from possibly Abrams, there are no sure things to be found as the Padres pushed all their chips to the middle.
1-6: SS CJ Abrams (Blessed Trinity HS [GA], my rank: 4)
2018 competitive balance pick Xavier Edwards is performing well in A ball for the Padres, so they decided to take a very similar player in CJ Abrams sixth overall this year. Abrams is a high school shortstop from the Atlanta area who can just flat out play. At 6'2" and ultra-athletic, Abrams can flat out fly and he uses that standout tool for impact both offensively and defensively. He's not just a speedster, as his excellent bat to ball skills help him make the most out of that speed by consistently putting the ball in play, and his long levers enable him to hit for some impact on top of that. He'll never be a power hitter, but he has the chance to develop average pop with that athleticism, though his calling card will always be his speed and contact ability. Reviews of his defense are consistently positive, but just how positive they are varies. He's currently a shortstop, where his speed and athleticism (do I sound like a broken record yet?) enable him to get to everything and generally make all the plays, though he has to work on his consistency there. His fallback will be center field, where his elite speed could make him a Gold Glover and where he already has experience with excellent results. To me, the biggest question isn't his defensive home, but his plate discipline; strikeouts will likely never be a concern with his hit tool, but given his speed, drawing walks will be huge, and honestly the difference between being a successful leadoff man or not. He'll have to show more patience at the plate if he does indeed want to flirt with .400 on-base percentages consistently. Overall, he projects for high averages (OBP projection pending) and 10-15 home runs per season with plenty of stolen bases, though those power numbers could tick up as he matures. An Alabama commit, Abrams instead signed with the Padres for $5.2 million, which was $540,000 below slot, and he's slashing .413/.450/.661 with a pair of home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 10/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games in the complex-level Arizona League; that'll play.
2-48: OF Joshua Mears (Federal Way HS [WA], my rank: 112)
This was an interesting pick by the Padres, as Baseball America put Joshua Mears at #93 on their list, MLB.com had him at #118, and I settled between them by putting him at #112. Mears, a high schooler in the Seattle area, is the exact opposite of Abrams and will be a project. He's listed at 6'3", 230 pounds, and he shows a ton of power from a whippy swing with plenty of loft already. However, his hit tool is average at best, well below at worst, and completely unproven either way. Whether he can get to that big raw power consistently is going to be a huge question going forward, and the Padres will need to work hard with him to refine his approach and help him find the barrel against pro pitching. Defensively, he actually gets average reviews despite his size and he should be either a slightly below average right fielder or an average left fielder, so while he won't be providing any positive value out there, he at least won't be a butcher. Mears is raw around most of his game and carries a ton of risk, but his upside is that of a #4 or #5 hitter who can hit 25-30 or more home runs per season. On the plus side, scouts have said he's a good kid and a hard worker. Committed to Purdue, he signed for $1 million, which was $540,000 below slot, and he's slashing .209/.311/.330 with two home runs and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games with Abrams in the Arizona League.
CBB-73: C Logan Driscoll (George Mason, unranked)
I played against Logan Driscoll in high school, but I ultimately didn't get to him in my research before the draft and he therefore didn't crack my rankings. In a weak year for college catching, his .343/.462/.598 slash line, nine home runs, and 31/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games for George Mason stood out, even if he was facing mediocre competition in the Atlantic 10 Conference. Driscoll is noted for his plate discipline and may be able to get up to average power, though he likely tops out 15 home runs per season. The Northern Virginia native could use some work defensively but he's already pretty good back there and has good arm strength, so he's not at immediate risk of being forced off the position and he should hold his own back there. That takes pressure off the bat, which will be important because he slashed just .204/.250/.235 with a 19/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in the elite Cape Cod League last summer and hasn't proven his bat against higher level pitching. However, his plate discipline and feel for the barrel should help him in that transition. He projects as a backup catcher at this point, but if he can make that offensive breakthrough at the next level, he does have a chance to start. Driscoll signed for $600,000, which was $257,400 below slot, and he's slashing .176/.176/.235 with five strikeouts to no walks over five games with short season Tri-City.
3-84: OF Hudson Head (Winston Churchill HS [TX], my rank: 136)
So if you add up all the money the Padres saved over their first three picks, you get roughly $1.3 million; well, here's where it went. Hudson Head's massive overslot deal netted him first round money – the most ever for a third rounder – and he will take his high upside into the Padres system. Head ranked at #122 on MLB.com and #128 at Baseball America, while I wasn't completely sold and put him at #136, though I did note him as "interesting" in my notes. Head is a pop-up prospect with very little track record against advanced pitching, and while 6'1" is barely average these days for high level prospects, he packs a lot of athleticism into his listed 180 pounds. The San Antonio high schooler is not too dissimilar to Mason House, the Padres' third rounder two years ago and a fellow pop-up Texan without much experience against advanced pitching, though House has struggled in pro ball and has yet to reach full season ball. Head uses his athleticism to generate good power in this left handed swing, though it has a lot of moving parts and will need to be quieted down and smoothed out in pro ball. He has also really improved his feel for the barrel and that enables him to get to his power more often, but again, he's unproven against advanced pitching. A plus runner, he has a chance to be a plus defender in the outfield as well with his strong arm and some pro refinement. Overall, Head comes with a ton of upside that could mean 20-20 production with high on-base percentages and good defense in a best case scenario, especially if the Padres are willing to spend a fortune on him here, but he'll need a lot of work and the team's big investment comes with no guarantees. Head signed away from his Oklahoma commitment for $3 million, which was almost $2.3 million above slot, and he's slashing .327/.456/.527 with an 18/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games with Abrams and Mears in the Arizona League.
4-113: RHP Matt Brash (Niagara, unranked)
Matt Brash is an off-the-radar pick who was unranked both on MLB.com's top 200 and Baseball America's top 500, so I'll do my best here. The Kingston, Ontario native was easily the best player on a mediocre Niagara team this year, posting a 2.43 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 121/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, though he did face mediocre competition in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Brash is a 6'1" righty who comes from a crouch in his delivery before exploding back upwards and firing what are allegedly low 90's fastballs according to a YouTube video I watched that claimed to show him throwing 93. All the moving parts in his delivery likely hold his command back, though 29 walks in 85 innings is pretty solid and he looks like he does a good job of keeping that delivery in sync for the most part. Still, the delivery might push him to the bullpen, but I haven't seen enough of him to know for sure. He also throws a pair of breaking balls and a changeup, though I couldn't find video on those two. Brash signed at slot for $512,400, and he has a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and an 8/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings between the Arizona League and Class A Fort Wayne.
5-143: RHP Chris Lincoln (UC Santa Barbara, unranked)
In the fifth round, the Padres took their first Californian in Moreno Valley native Chris Lincoln. Lincoln served as UC Santa Barbara's closer this year, posting a 3.57 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 40/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a slider that flashes plus, but his mechanics are mediocre and he'll need some work in pro ball. He comes open early in his delivery, giving hitters a good look at what he's about to throw, and he also throws with a lot of effort. The latter isn't all that important because he throws strikes for the most part and he'll be a reliever in pro ball anyways, but the former will be important to fix to help his stuff play up against pro hitters. Lincoln has the upside of a set-up man if he can get his mechanics in sync and get more consistent with that slider, which can miss bats at times but which can also flatten out and get hit hard. However, there is a fair amount of risk, even for a college reliever. He signed for $325,000, which was $57,700 below slot, and he has a 4.50 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over six innings in the Arizona League.
6-173: RHP Drake Fellows (Vanderbilt, unranked)
There may not be a bigger spotlight in college baseball than the one that shines on Vanderbilt's Friday night starter, and over the past two seasons, the man under that spotlight has been Drake Fellows. Not only that, but this may have been the best Vanderbilt team ever, one which took home the program's second NCAA Championship this year, so it's safe to say that Fellows has experience with pitching under pressure. The Chicago-area native was a big part of Vanderbilt's success this year, going 13-2 with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 133/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.2 innings against stiff competition. The numbers aren't the flashiest, but he got the job done and also did so as a freshman (3.30 ERA, 68/17 K/BB) and as a sophomore (3.92 ERA, 107/35 K/BB). Fellows comes at you with a low 90's sinker that helps him get a lot of ground balls, also adding a slider that can miss a lot of bats when he keeps it down. He also adds a changeup, though he needs to get more consistent with it, and his command has ranged from above average in the past to closer to average this season. With his competitiveness and composure that comes with pitching in his position, he has the ceiling of a back-end starter, though his bulldog mentality might also work as a fastball/slider guy in the bullpen. He signed for $260,000, which was $29,000 below slot, but after a long season and postseason I'm not sure if we'll see him in the minors this year.
21-623: 3B Jack Stronach (UCLA, unranked)
Fifth rounder Chris Lincoln is from Moreno Valley, but I wanted to get a true San Diego native in here with UCLA's Jack Stronach, who went to Helix Charter High School in La Mesa just east of the city. Stronach slashed .317/.378/.418 with two home runs and a 25/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for the Bruins, showing little power to speak of but proving to be great at putting the barrel on the ball. Standing 6'3" and 195 pounds, the left handed hitter is more content with just spraying the ball around the field, which is easy for him because he rarely swings and misses. Overall, it's a utility infielder projection due to the lack of power, low walk rate, and lack of speed, but he'll definitely pick up his share base hits and boost his batting average. He signed for $100,000 and is slashing .161/.224/.210 with a 15/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games with Tri-City so far.
23-683: OF Maurice Hampton (Memphis University HS [TN], my rank: 39)
Third rounder Hudson Head got all the bonus pool money, so 23rd rounder Maurice Hampton will be packing it up and heading to Louisiana State, which is not only exciting for head baseball coach Paul Mainieri, but for head football coach Ed Orgeron as well. That's right, like Ole Miss commit and Diamondbacks draftee Jerrion Ealy, Maurice Hampton is committed to LSU to play both baseball and football. The super-athlete from Memphis is, as you would expect from an SEC cornerback, extremely fast, and that enables him to play a great center field. Hampton also uses his strength and smooth, quick swing to produce good power, and he has a shot at being a plus hitter if he ever chooses to focus on baseball exclusively. As one would expect, playing football has held his development back a hair, which has caused him to be inconsistent with his hit tool and which has held his power back from playing in games as much as he'd like, but the tools, and certainly the athleticism, are there. He also doesn't turn 18 until August, making him young for his class, and that will play to his benefit as well. While you may hear his name a lot on the gridiron over the coming fall football seasons, Hampton has a chance to develop into a five tool player across Nicholson Drive at Alex Box Stadium in the springs.
Also notable: Drake Fellows (6-173), 3B Jack Stronach (21-623), Maurice Hampton (23-683)
The Padres have high hopes for everyone they drafted this year, but the focus really comes down to two players: first rounder CJ Abrams and third rounder Hudson Head. Abrams is an ultra-athletic shortstop with a chance to be the team's future leadoff man, while Head signed a massive overslot bonus in the third round as a kid oozing with upside. Every other pick this year, save for 14th rounder Bodi Rascon, was at or below slot in order to save up for Head's deal. In all, there is a ton of upside in this draft, but aside from possibly Abrams, there are no sure things to be found as the Padres pushed all their chips to the middle.
1-6: SS CJ Abrams (Blessed Trinity HS [GA], my rank: 4)
2018 competitive balance pick Xavier Edwards is performing well in A ball for the Padres, so they decided to take a very similar player in CJ Abrams sixth overall this year. Abrams is a high school shortstop from the Atlanta area who can just flat out play. At 6'2" and ultra-athletic, Abrams can flat out fly and he uses that standout tool for impact both offensively and defensively. He's not just a speedster, as his excellent bat to ball skills help him make the most out of that speed by consistently putting the ball in play, and his long levers enable him to hit for some impact on top of that. He'll never be a power hitter, but he has the chance to develop average pop with that athleticism, though his calling card will always be his speed and contact ability. Reviews of his defense are consistently positive, but just how positive they are varies. He's currently a shortstop, where his speed and athleticism (do I sound like a broken record yet?) enable him to get to everything and generally make all the plays, though he has to work on his consistency there. His fallback will be center field, where his elite speed could make him a Gold Glover and where he already has experience with excellent results. To me, the biggest question isn't his defensive home, but his plate discipline; strikeouts will likely never be a concern with his hit tool, but given his speed, drawing walks will be huge, and honestly the difference between being a successful leadoff man or not. He'll have to show more patience at the plate if he does indeed want to flirt with .400 on-base percentages consistently. Overall, he projects for high averages (OBP projection pending) and 10-15 home runs per season with plenty of stolen bases, though those power numbers could tick up as he matures. An Alabama commit, Abrams instead signed with the Padres for $5.2 million, which was $540,000 below slot, and he's slashing .413/.450/.661 with a pair of home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 10/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games in the complex-level Arizona League; that'll play.
2-48: OF Joshua Mears (Federal Way HS [WA], my rank: 112)
This was an interesting pick by the Padres, as Baseball America put Joshua Mears at #93 on their list, MLB.com had him at #118, and I settled between them by putting him at #112. Mears, a high schooler in the Seattle area, is the exact opposite of Abrams and will be a project. He's listed at 6'3", 230 pounds, and he shows a ton of power from a whippy swing with plenty of loft already. However, his hit tool is average at best, well below at worst, and completely unproven either way. Whether he can get to that big raw power consistently is going to be a huge question going forward, and the Padres will need to work hard with him to refine his approach and help him find the barrel against pro pitching. Defensively, he actually gets average reviews despite his size and he should be either a slightly below average right fielder or an average left fielder, so while he won't be providing any positive value out there, he at least won't be a butcher. Mears is raw around most of his game and carries a ton of risk, but his upside is that of a #4 or #5 hitter who can hit 25-30 or more home runs per season. On the plus side, scouts have said he's a good kid and a hard worker. Committed to Purdue, he signed for $1 million, which was $540,000 below slot, and he's slashing .209/.311/.330 with two home runs and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games with Abrams in the Arizona League.
CBB-73: C Logan Driscoll (George Mason, unranked)
I played against Logan Driscoll in high school, but I ultimately didn't get to him in my research before the draft and he therefore didn't crack my rankings. In a weak year for college catching, his .343/.462/.598 slash line, nine home runs, and 31/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games for George Mason stood out, even if he was facing mediocre competition in the Atlantic 10 Conference. Driscoll is noted for his plate discipline and may be able to get up to average power, though he likely tops out 15 home runs per season. The Northern Virginia native could use some work defensively but he's already pretty good back there and has good arm strength, so he's not at immediate risk of being forced off the position and he should hold his own back there. That takes pressure off the bat, which will be important because he slashed just .204/.250/.235 with a 19/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in the elite Cape Cod League last summer and hasn't proven his bat against higher level pitching. However, his plate discipline and feel for the barrel should help him in that transition. He projects as a backup catcher at this point, but if he can make that offensive breakthrough at the next level, he does have a chance to start. Driscoll signed for $600,000, which was $257,400 below slot, and he's slashing .176/.176/.235 with five strikeouts to no walks over five games with short season Tri-City.
3-84: OF Hudson Head (Winston Churchill HS [TX], my rank: 136)
So if you add up all the money the Padres saved over their first three picks, you get roughly $1.3 million; well, here's where it went. Hudson Head's massive overslot deal netted him first round money – the most ever for a third rounder – and he will take his high upside into the Padres system. Head ranked at #122 on MLB.com and #128 at Baseball America, while I wasn't completely sold and put him at #136, though I did note him as "interesting" in my notes. Head is a pop-up prospect with very little track record against advanced pitching, and while 6'1" is barely average these days for high level prospects, he packs a lot of athleticism into his listed 180 pounds. The San Antonio high schooler is not too dissimilar to Mason House, the Padres' third rounder two years ago and a fellow pop-up Texan without much experience against advanced pitching, though House has struggled in pro ball and has yet to reach full season ball. Head uses his athleticism to generate good power in this left handed swing, though it has a lot of moving parts and will need to be quieted down and smoothed out in pro ball. He has also really improved his feel for the barrel and that enables him to get to his power more often, but again, he's unproven against advanced pitching. A plus runner, he has a chance to be a plus defender in the outfield as well with his strong arm and some pro refinement. Overall, Head comes with a ton of upside that could mean 20-20 production with high on-base percentages and good defense in a best case scenario, especially if the Padres are willing to spend a fortune on him here, but he'll need a lot of work and the team's big investment comes with no guarantees. Head signed away from his Oklahoma commitment for $3 million, which was almost $2.3 million above slot, and he's slashing .327/.456/.527 with an 18/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games with Abrams and Mears in the Arizona League.
4-113: RHP Matt Brash (Niagara, unranked)
Matt Brash is an off-the-radar pick who was unranked both on MLB.com's top 200 and Baseball America's top 500, so I'll do my best here. The Kingston, Ontario native was easily the best player on a mediocre Niagara team this year, posting a 2.43 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 121/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, though he did face mediocre competition in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Brash is a 6'1" righty who comes from a crouch in his delivery before exploding back upwards and firing what are allegedly low 90's fastballs according to a YouTube video I watched that claimed to show him throwing 93. All the moving parts in his delivery likely hold his command back, though 29 walks in 85 innings is pretty solid and he looks like he does a good job of keeping that delivery in sync for the most part. Still, the delivery might push him to the bullpen, but I haven't seen enough of him to know for sure. He also throws a pair of breaking balls and a changeup, though I couldn't find video on those two. Brash signed at slot for $512,400, and he has a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and an 8/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings between the Arizona League and Class A Fort Wayne.
5-143: RHP Chris Lincoln (UC Santa Barbara, unranked)
In the fifth round, the Padres took their first Californian in Moreno Valley native Chris Lincoln. Lincoln served as UC Santa Barbara's closer this year, posting a 3.57 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 40/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a slider that flashes plus, but his mechanics are mediocre and he'll need some work in pro ball. He comes open early in his delivery, giving hitters a good look at what he's about to throw, and he also throws with a lot of effort. The latter isn't all that important because he throws strikes for the most part and he'll be a reliever in pro ball anyways, but the former will be important to fix to help his stuff play up against pro hitters. Lincoln has the upside of a set-up man if he can get his mechanics in sync and get more consistent with that slider, which can miss bats at times but which can also flatten out and get hit hard. However, there is a fair amount of risk, even for a college reliever. He signed for $325,000, which was $57,700 below slot, and he has a 4.50 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over six innings in the Arizona League.
6-173: RHP Drake Fellows (Vanderbilt, unranked)
There may not be a bigger spotlight in college baseball than the one that shines on Vanderbilt's Friday night starter, and over the past two seasons, the man under that spotlight has been Drake Fellows. Not only that, but this may have been the best Vanderbilt team ever, one which took home the program's second NCAA Championship this year, so it's safe to say that Fellows has experience with pitching under pressure. The Chicago-area native was a big part of Vanderbilt's success this year, going 13-2 with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 133/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.2 innings against stiff competition. The numbers aren't the flashiest, but he got the job done and also did so as a freshman (3.30 ERA, 68/17 K/BB) and as a sophomore (3.92 ERA, 107/35 K/BB). Fellows comes at you with a low 90's sinker that helps him get a lot of ground balls, also adding a slider that can miss a lot of bats when he keeps it down. He also adds a changeup, though he needs to get more consistent with it, and his command has ranged from above average in the past to closer to average this season. With his competitiveness and composure that comes with pitching in his position, he has the ceiling of a back-end starter, though his bulldog mentality might also work as a fastball/slider guy in the bullpen. He signed for $260,000, which was $29,000 below slot, but after a long season and postseason I'm not sure if we'll see him in the minors this year.
21-623: 3B Jack Stronach (UCLA, unranked)
Fifth rounder Chris Lincoln is from Moreno Valley, but I wanted to get a true San Diego native in here with UCLA's Jack Stronach, who went to Helix Charter High School in La Mesa just east of the city. Stronach slashed .317/.378/.418 with two home runs and a 25/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games for the Bruins, showing little power to speak of but proving to be great at putting the barrel on the ball. Standing 6'3" and 195 pounds, the left handed hitter is more content with just spraying the ball around the field, which is easy for him because he rarely swings and misses. Overall, it's a utility infielder projection due to the lack of power, low walk rate, and lack of speed, but he'll definitely pick up his share base hits and boost his batting average. He signed for $100,000 and is slashing .161/.224/.210 with a 15/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games with Tri-City so far.
23-683: OF Maurice Hampton (Memphis University HS [TN], my rank: 39)
Third rounder Hudson Head got all the bonus pool money, so 23rd rounder Maurice Hampton will be packing it up and heading to Louisiana State, which is not only exciting for head baseball coach Paul Mainieri, but for head football coach Ed Orgeron as well. That's right, like Ole Miss commit and Diamondbacks draftee Jerrion Ealy, Maurice Hampton is committed to LSU to play both baseball and football. The super-athlete from Memphis is, as you would expect from an SEC cornerback, extremely fast, and that enables him to play a great center field. Hampton also uses his strength and smooth, quick swing to produce good power, and he has a shot at being a plus hitter if he ever chooses to focus on baseball exclusively. As one would expect, playing football has held his development back a hair, which has caused him to be inconsistent with his hit tool and which has held his power back from playing in games as much as he'd like, but the tools, and certainly the athleticism, are there. He also doesn't turn 18 until August, making him young for his class, and that will play to his benefit as well. While you may hear his name a lot on the gridiron over the coming fall football seasons, Hampton has a chance to develop into a five tool player across Nicholson Drive at Alex Box Stadium in the springs.
Sunday, July 21, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds
First five rounds: Nick Lodolo (1-7), Rece Hinds (2-49), Tyler Callihan (3-85), Ivan Johnson (4-114), Evan Kravetz (5-144)
Also notable: Graham Ashcraft (6-174), Eric Yang (7-204), Patrick Raby (17-504)
The Reds had a good draft here, starting with the best pitcher in the class and moving forward with two of the better high school hitters available, both signed to overslot bonuses. They mixed up positions as well as high school versus college players, and the overall class is well rounded. I particularly like the two high school bats and think the Reds spent their extra bonus money well, and they could get two impact bats.
1-7: LHP Nick Lodolo (Texas Christian, my rank: 7)
It was a down year for pitching, but Nick Lodolo was the best of the weak crop and the Reds got him at seventh overall. Lodolo was a very well regarded prospect out of a Southern California high school in 2016, when he ranked 76th on my list and turned down the Pirates as the 41st overall selection, but he didn't quite put it all together over his first two years at TCU with ERA's of 4.35 and 4.32, respectively. However, he did put it together this year and posted a 2.36 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 131/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings for the Horned Frogs, his best start of the season coming on May 16th when he tossed eight shutout innings against a tough Texas Tech lineup, allowing five hits and no walks while striking out 13. Lodolo is a 6'6" lefty who cleaned up his mechanics this season, giving him good angle on a low 90's fastball, two breaking balls that he's still figuring out, and a solid changeup that keeps hitters off balance. He previously used a decent curveball, but he has transitioned over to more of a good slider, and sharpening that slider will be a big key for him going forward. He also commands everything pretty well, and with the potential to add even more velocity and sharpen his breaking balls further, he has #2 starter upside. However, I see him more as a #3 guy as a more realistic projection. Lodolo signed at slot for $5.43 million and has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a sparkling 21/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 innings at rookie level Billings.
2-49: 3B Rece Hinds (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 35)
Rece Hinds is one of the more polarizing prospects in the class this year, but the Reds liked his tremendous upside enough to give him an overslot deal here at 49th overall. They drafted him as a shortstop, but I went ahead and listed him as a third baseman because there is no way he sticks at short (and he's already playing third in the Appalachian League). Even at third, Hinds' glove is fringy and needs some work, but he does have a shot to stick there if he can get more consistent with his glove. Anyways, he's much more interesting as a hitter, where his plus raw power is possibly the best in the class, easily up there with Brett Baty and Keoni Cavaco. The 6'4" slugger originally from the town of Niceville in the Florida Panhandle can hit some absolute moonshots, and that power plays up in games against premium velocity. However, Hinds is a dead-red hitter who really struggles with breaking stuff, and you have to assume he'll get a steady diet of those immediately in pro ball. His hands aren't the quickest to the ball and that causes a lot of his swing and miss, which the Reds will want to help him fix, but the pitch recognition will be the biggest challenge here. Hinds has huge upside as an Aaron Judge-type hitter, but he comes with a ton of risk. Committed to Louisiana State, he signed for $1.8 million, which w as $290,000 above slot, and he's hitless through eight at bats at rookie level Greeneville, striking out three times and walking twice.
3-85: 2B Tyler Callihan (Providence HS [FL], my rank: 34)
I spent a lot of time trying to decide which Florida high school hitter I liked better between Hinds and Tyler Callihan, and while I ultimately ranked Callihan one spot ahead of Hinds, it's still really close. Callihan is high school draftee from Jacksonville, where he shows great feel for the barrel that allows him to make consistent hard contact and hit for some power even against top competition, even though he's a stocky six feet tall. The bat will absolutely play at the next level, and while getting to above average power isn't a guarantee, some mechanical changes should help him do so. Together, that projection comes out to 20 or so home runs per season, potentially 25 or more if he can make the necessary adjustments, and high on-base percentages. Defensively, he comes with a lot of question marks and could end up at first base, second, or third. He's not the most athletic player and probably fits best at first base, but he's a little short for a first baseman and the Reds would probably rather he figure out how to make it work elsewhere in the infield. It's interesting that the Reds drafted him as a second baseman but he probably fits better at third, but we'll see. Committed to Florida, he signed for $1.5 million, which was $789,300 above slot, and he's slashing .244/.277/.400 with two home runs and a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games with Hinds at Greeneville.
4-114: 2B Ivan Johnson (Chipola JC, unranked)
Ivan Johnson started out at Georgia but transferred to powerhouse junior college Chipola for his sophomore year when he didn't get as much playing time as he wanted, and it paid off for him. The Atlanta-area native slashed .381/.491/.587 with nine home runs and a 37/34 strikeout to walk ratio on the Florida JuCo circuit, showing a projectable bat from both sides of the plate. The switch hitter is trending upwards with his quick, explosive bat that produces good power, and he seems to have improved his plate discipline this year after looking overmatched in the SEC as a freshman. Johnson is also a good defender that can handle himself anywhere in the infield, though it looks like the Reds are going to stick him at second base going forward. He could project for 20 or more home runs annually with middling on-base percentages, though he does have some work to do to get to that projection. If his bat doesn't quite materialize, he still profiles well as a utility infielder. Committed to South Carolina for his junior season, he signed for $397,500, which was $109,900 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.296/.337 with a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games with Hinds and Callihan at Greeneville.
5-144: LHP Evan Kravetz (Rice, unranked)
There is not much scouting info on Evan Kravetz out there, as he wasn't listed in MLB Pipeline's top 200 prospects or in Baseball America's top 500, plus there's no video of him on YouTube. What I do know is that he spent three years as a reliever at Rice before transitioning over to the starting rotation this year as a senior, and he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings as the team's Saturday starter behind ace (and Twins second rounder) Matt Canterino. Kravetz, from the Miami area, is listed at 6'8" and 240 pounds, and that helps him get good downhill slope on his pitches. He throws a curveball and a changeup as well, which helped him generate a ton of strikeouts this year. Since I don't know much else about him, I can't really say whether he's projected as a starter or a reliever, though as a senior, he turned 22 in December. He signed for $112,500, which was $266,500 below slot, and he pitched a scoreless inning in his first appearance for Greeneville.
6-174: RHP Graham Ashcraft (Alabama-Birmingham, unranked)
Graham Ashcraft has always had exceptional stuff, but he's never quite put it together in college ball. Beginning his career at Mississippi State, he missed the 2018 season with injuries and transferred to the University of Alabama-Birmingham in his home state, then was up and down this year. He posted a 5.62 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 53/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, starting off strong by dominating his old teammates at Mississippi State (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 7 K) but eventually getting blown up more often than not and ending up in the bullpen. That's likely where his future will lie, though the Reds have trotted him out as a starter so far with mixed results. The Huntsville native can sit in the mid 90's at his best, but he also dips into the low 90's regularly and rarely throws consistent strikes. He also adds a few breaking balls, most notably his above average slider, but as with his fastball velocity, he's inconsistent there. The Reds will hope to smooth out his mechanics and get him throwing strikes at least sometimes, and they'll also hope to get him consistent with his velocity and breaking stuff. Moving him to the bullpen could help him with that and that's probably where he ends up after the Reds are done with this experiment. The 6'2" righty signed for $247,500, which was $39,000 below slot, and he has a 5.63 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 29/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings with Greeneville. His minor league numbers are actually skewed by one awful start on July 2nd in which he allowed ten runs, as he has a 2.05 ERA in his other five starts.
7-204: C Eric Yang (UC-Santa Barbara, unranked)
Eric Yang gives the Reds another catcher for their pipeline, and he fits the clear backup catcher mold. The Los Angeles-area native had a breakout year with the bat this spring, slashing .368/.479/.545 with seven home runs and a 29/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, certainly not bad for someone playing the most grueling position on the field. He's got some sneaky pop in his 5'11" frame but will likely hit for more contact than power, using his advanced plate discipline to get his pitches and drive them. He's also a competent defender behind the plate who will stick back there, that makes him your prototypical backup catcher. Yang signed for $197,500, which was $26,500 below slot, and he's slashing .386/.486/.491 with a home run and a 16/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 17 games with Billings.
17-504: RHP Patrick Raby (Vanderbilt, unranked)
Patrick Raby doesn't have overwhelming stuff or good command, but he still managed to dominate the SEC for four years as one of Vanderbilt's big time arms. The Knoxville-area native went 32-11 with a 2.98 ERA over four years, and this season he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an 81/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings as a senior. He rarely touches 90 with his fastball, mixes in a couple of offspeeds, and has average command of everything. Yet he has a very strong feel for pitching that enables him to perform well against good hitters. He will need a big jump forward in his stuff in order to work his way up to the majors, but his feel for pitching should give him his best chance to do so. He signed, for $10,000 and has thrown 5.1 shutout innings with eight strikeouts over three appearances for Greeneville.
Also notable: Graham Ashcraft (6-174), Eric Yang (7-204), Patrick Raby (17-504)
The Reds had a good draft here, starting with the best pitcher in the class and moving forward with two of the better high school hitters available, both signed to overslot bonuses. They mixed up positions as well as high school versus college players, and the overall class is well rounded. I particularly like the two high school bats and think the Reds spent their extra bonus money well, and they could get two impact bats.
1-7: LHP Nick Lodolo (Texas Christian, my rank: 7)
It was a down year for pitching, but Nick Lodolo was the best of the weak crop and the Reds got him at seventh overall. Lodolo was a very well regarded prospect out of a Southern California high school in 2016, when he ranked 76th on my list and turned down the Pirates as the 41st overall selection, but he didn't quite put it all together over his first two years at TCU with ERA's of 4.35 and 4.32, respectively. However, he did put it together this year and posted a 2.36 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 131/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings for the Horned Frogs, his best start of the season coming on May 16th when he tossed eight shutout innings against a tough Texas Tech lineup, allowing five hits and no walks while striking out 13. Lodolo is a 6'6" lefty who cleaned up his mechanics this season, giving him good angle on a low 90's fastball, two breaking balls that he's still figuring out, and a solid changeup that keeps hitters off balance. He previously used a decent curveball, but he has transitioned over to more of a good slider, and sharpening that slider will be a big key for him going forward. He also commands everything pretty well, and with the potential to add even more velocity and sharpen his breaking balls further, he has #2 starter upside. However, I see him more as a #3 guy as a more realistic projection. Lodolo signed at slot for $5.43 million and has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a sparkling 21/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 innings at rookie level Billings.
2-49: 3B Rece Hinds (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 35)
Rece Hinds is one of the more polarizing prospects in the class this year, but the Reds liked his tremendous upside enough to give him an overslot deal here at 49th overall. They drafted him as a shortstop, but I went ahead and listed him as a third baseman because there is no way he sticks at short (and he's already playing third in the Appalachian League). Even at third, Hinds' glove is fringy and needs some work, but he does have a shot to stick there if he can get more consistent with his glove. Anyways, he's much more interesting as a hitter, where his plus raw power is possibly the best in the class, easily up there with Brett Baty and Keoni Cavaco. The 6'4" slugger originally from the town of Niceville in the Florida Panhandle can hit some absolute moonshots, and that power plays up in games against premium velocity. However, Hinds is a dead-red hitter who really struggles with breaking stuff, and you have to assume he'll get a steady diet of those immediately in pro ball. His hands aren't the quickest to the ball and that causes a lot of his swing and miss, which the Reds will want to help him fix, but the pitch recognition will be the biggest challenge here. Hinds has huge upside as an Aaron Judge-type hitter, but he comes with a ton of risk. Committed to Louisiana State, he signed for $1.8 million, which w as $290,000 above slot, and he's hitless through eight at bats at rookie level Greeneville, striking out three times and walking twice.
3-85: 2B Tyler Callihan (Providence HS [FL], my rank: 34)
I spent a lot of time trying to decide which Florida high school hitter I liked better between Hinds and Tyler Callihan, and while I ultimately ranked Callihan one spot ahead of Hinds, it's still really close. Callihan is high school draftee from Jacksonville, where he shows great feel for the barrel that allows him to make consistent hard contact and hit for some power even against top competition, even though he's a stocky six feet tall. The bat will absolutely play at the next level, and while getting to above average power isn't a guarantee, some mechanical changes should help him do so. Together, that projection comes out to 20 or so home runs per season, potentially 25 or more if he can make the necessary adjustments, and high on-base percentages. Defensively, he comes with a lot of question marks and could end up at first base, second, or third. He's not the most athletic player and probably fits best at first base, but he's a little short for a first baseman and the Reds would probably rather he figure out how to make it work elsewhere in the infield. It's interesting that the Reds drafted him as a second baseman but he probably fits better at third, but we'll see. Committed to Florida, he signed for $1.5 million, which was $789,300 above slot, and he's slashing .244/.277/.400 with two home runs and a 15/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games with Hinds at Greeneville.
4-114: 2B Ivan Johnson (Chipola JC, unranked)
Ivan Johnson started out at Georgia but transferred to powerhouse junior college Chipola for his sophomore year when he didn't get as much playing time as he wanted, and it paid off for him. The Atlanta-area native slashed .381/.491/.587 with nine home runs and a 37/34 strikeout to walk ratio on the Florida JuCo circuit, showing a projectable bat from both sides of the plate. The switch hitter is trending upwards with his quick, explosive bat that produces good power, and he seems to have improved his plate discipline this year after looking overmatched in the SEC as a freshman. Johnson is also a good defender that can handle himself anywhere in the infield, though it looks like the Reds are going to stick him at second base going forward. He could project for 20 or more home runs annually with middling on-base percentages, though he does have some work to do to get to that projection. If his bat doesn't quite materialize, he still profiles well as a utility infielder. Committed to South Carolina for his junior season, he signed for $397,500, which was $109,900 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.296/.337 with a 21/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games with Hinds and Callihan at Greeneville.
5-144: LHP Evan Kravetz (Rice, unranked)
There is not much scouting info on Evan Kravetz out there, as he wasn't listed in MLB Pipeline's top 200 prospects or in Baseball America's top 500, plus there's no video of him on YouTube. What I do know is that he spent three years as a reliever at Rice before transitioning over to the starting rotation this year as a senior, and he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings as the team's Saturday starter behind ace (and Twins second rounder) Matt Canterino. Kravetz, from the Miami area, is listed at 6'8" and 240 pounds, and that helps him get good downhill slope on his pitches. He throws a curveball and a changeup as well, which helped him generate a ton of strikeouts this year. Since I don't know much else about him, I can't really say whether he's projected as a starter or a reliever, though as a senior, he turned 22 in December. He signed for $112,500, which was $266,500 below slot, and he pitched a scoreless inning in his first appearance for Greeneville.
6-174: RHP Graham Ashcraft (Alabama-Birmingham, unranked)
Graham Ashcraft has always had exceptional stuff, but he's never quite put it together in college ball. Beginning his career at Mississippi State, he missed the 2018 season with injuries and transferred to the University of Alabama-Birmingham in his home state, then was up and down this year. He posted a 5.62 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 53/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, starting off strong by dominating his old teammates at Mississippi State (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB, 7 K) but eventually getting blown up more often than not and ending up in the bullpen. That's likely where his future will lie, though the Reds have trotted him out as a starter so far with mixed results. The Huntsville native can sit in the mid 90's at his best, but he also dips into the low 90's regularly and rarely throws consistent strikes. He also adds a few breaking balls, most notably his above average slider, but as with his fastball velocity, he's inconsistent there. The Reds will hope to smooth out his mechanics and get him throwing strikes at least sometimes, and they'll also hope to get him consistent with his velocity and breaking stuff. Moving him to the bullpen could help him with that and that's probably where he ends up after the Reds are done with this experiment. The 6'2" righty signed for $247,500, which was $39,000 below slot, and he has a 5.63 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 29/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings with Greeneville. His minor league numbers are actually skewed by one awful start on July 2nd in which he allowed ten runs, as he has a 2.05 ERA in his other five starts.
7-204: C Eric Yang (UC-Santa Barbara, unranked)
Eric Yang gives the Reds another catcher for their pipeline, and he fits the clear backup catcher mold. The Los Angeles-area native had a breakout year with the bat this spring, slashing .368/.479/.545 with seven home runs and a 29/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, certainly not bad for someone playing the most grueling position on the field. He's got some sneaky pop in his 5'11" frame but will likely hit for more contact than power, using his advanced plate discipline to get his pitches and drive them. He's also a competent defender behind the plate who will stick back there, that makes him your prototypical backup catcher. Yang signed for $197,500, which was $26,500 below slot, and he's slashing .386/.486/.491 with a home run and a 16/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 17 games with Billings.
17-504: RHP Patrick Raby (Vanderbilt, unranked)
Patrick Raby doesn't have overwhelming stuff or good command, but he still managed to dominate the SEC for four years as one of Vanderbilt's big time arms. The Knoxville-area native went 32-11 with a 2.98 ERA over four years, and this season he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and an 81/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings as a senior. He rarely touches 90 with his fastball, mixes in a couple of offspeeds, and has average command of everything. Yet he has a very strong feel for pitching that enables him to perform well against good hitters. He will need a big jump forward in his stuff in order to work his way up to the majors, but his feel for pitching should give him his best chance to do so. He signed, for $10,000 and has thrown 5.1 shutout innings with eight strikeouts over three appearances for Greeneville.
Saturday, July 20, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Texas Rangers
First five rounds: Josh Jung (1-8), Davis Wendzel (CBA-41), Ryan Garcia (2-50), Justin Slaten (3-86), Cody Freeman (4-115), Kellen Strahm (5-145)
Also notable: Cody Bradford (6-175), Gavin Collyer (12-355), Mason Cole (27-805)
It was certainly a Texas-themed draft for the Rangers, as five of their first seven picks had some connection to the state of Texas whether it was a college or a hometown. They use their first two picks to save money on big time Texas college hitters, though overall, this wasn't the typical Rangers draft because they focused more on safety than on upside. Jung was my personal favorite pick overall, though overall aside from all the Texans (even fourth rounder and California high schooler Tyler Freeman was committed to Baylor), it was a fairly unremarkable draft, at least for now.
1-8: 3B Josh Jung (Texas Tech, my rank: 9)
The Rangers started it off in-state, grabbing who I would call the best second-tier college hitter in the country (the first tier being Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, and JJ Bleday). Josh Jung, a San Antonio native out of Texas Tech, had a huge sophomore season in 2018 by slashing .392/.491/.639 with 12 home runs, and he was again one of the best hitters in the country in 2019. This year, he slashed .343/.474/.636 with 15 home runs and a 43/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, showing off a broad range of skills on the offensive side of the ball. Jung is 6'2" and he produces a ton of hard contact all over the field, and adding a little bit of loft could make him a legitimate threat for 25-30 home runs annually. He also has exceptional plate discipline and walked in 17.5% of his plate appearances this year, and his ability to wait for his pitch and barrel it up will certainly help his power play up in pro ball. There are some questions about his raw power given his current swing path and his bat speed, but he's such a competent hitter that he should be able to be a middle of the order bat at the major league level. Defensively, he has a very strong arm but he's still working on the glove side of things over there, and there is still a chance he ends up having to slide over to first base. Still, his bat will profile there. He signed for $4.4 million, which was $780,000 below slot, and he's slashing .433/.485/.667 with a home run and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Hickory.
CBA-41: 3B Davis Wendzel (Baylor, my rank: 66)
Davis Wendzel may not be a true Texan like Jung, having grown up in Southern California (where he attended high school with Royce Lewis and Chase Strumpf), but three years in Waco makes him an honorary Texan that's good enough for the Rangers. Wendzel was draft eligible as a sophomore last season, but after slashing .310/.435/.532, he elected to return to Baylor and that turned out to be a wise decision. Despite missing some time with an oblique injury, he slashed .367/.484/.610 with eight home runs and a 37/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games, powering the Baylor offense to the Los Angeles regional. You can't miss him on the field; Wendzel might have been the most recognizable player in college baseball this year, as his beard/mullet combination is the stuff of legends. He has a big swing that has some length to it, but his great bat speed helps him hit the ball hard all over the field and over the fence. He also has solid plate discipline, and if he can add some loft to his swing, he could hit for both power and a high on-base percentage. Defensively, he's very competent at third base and should be a net positive there, with his gamer mentality helping everything play up. On the flip side, Wendzel turned 22 in May, making him the second oldest of the 78 players drafted on Day One and giving him less development time than his peers. Together, he has the upside of 20 home runs and high on-base percentages annually as well as good defense at third base. Of course, you have to take his age into account, and a realistic middle projection would be for 15 home runs and decent on-base percentages annually. He signed for $1.6 million, which was $210,000 below slot.
2-50: RHP Ryan Garcia (UCLA, my rank: 92)
I already spoke of Mississippi State's Ethan Small (Brewers), Missouri's TJ Sikkema (Yankees), and Texas A&M's John Doxakis (Rays) dominating the SEC in previous draft reviews, but UCLA's Ryan Garcia deserves just as much credit in the Pac-12. The LA-area native was untouchable for the Bruins this season, posting a 1.44 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 117/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings, including a 1.64 ERA in his tough conference slate. He won't blow anyone away with his stuff, using a low 90's fastball with some run, a solid slider, and a decent changeup to keep hitters always off balance. He has great command and exceptional feel for pitching, and those attributes will have to carry him through pro ball because he's only six feet tall and probably won't add much velocity. Because he's set there, the Rangers will want to work with him on sharpening and refining those secondary pitches so that his margin for error can grow, and he has the ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter. Working in his favor is that he also thrived in the elite Cape Cod League last summer, where he had a 1.29 ERA and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 28 innings. Garcia signed at slot for $1.47 million and has a 3.60 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio over five innings between the Arizona League and short season Spokane.
3-86: RHP Justin Slaten (New Mexico, unranked)
Getting back to the Texas theme, the Rangers took New Mexico hurler Justin Slaten, who grew up in the small East Texas town of Hallsville, near Longview. Slaten posted a 7.02 ERA as a sophomore this year but bounced back in a big way this year, posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 98/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, a good slider with two-plane break, and a developing curveball and changeup. The command is average if possibly a tick below, but he's got some upside with that projectable frame and could be a mid rotation starter if he refines his curve and/or changeup and gets more consistent with his command. Otherwise, his fastball/slider combination will play well in the bullpen. Slaten signed for $575,000, which was $224,700 below slot, and he has a 5.14 ERA, a 2.00 WHIP, and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seven innings between the Arizona League and Spokane.
4-115: SS Cody Freeman (Etiwanda HS [CA], unranked)
Indians prospect Tyler Freeman is slashing .315/.393/.436 in A ball this year, and now the Rangers have drafted his younger brother. Cody Freeman isn't a standout in any aspect of the game, but he's a very competent player with an all-around skill set, somewhat of a break from the typical toolsy, unrefined Rangers prospects you usually hear about. He has a smooth swing from the right side and even though he's a skinny 5'10", there is some power projection in there because he does a good job of creating leverage with his bat. Couple that with his good plate discipline, and you can see a potential high on-base percentage guy with 10-15 home runs per season and some speed. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at shortstop due to his feel for the game, though he would probably be a cleaner fit at second base. Committed to Baylor (more Texas!), Freeman signed for $900,000, which was $397,700 above slot, and he's slashing .245/.355/.302 with an 8/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games in the Arizona League.
5-145: OF Kellen Strahm (San Jose State, unranked)
Kellen Strahm is a college outfielder, but he's still somewhat of a similar player to Freeman. Known more as a slap hitter over his first two years at San Jose State, but be broke out this year with a .382/.487/.546 slash line, six home runs, and a 21/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games. The Eugene, Oregon native has a line drive swing and great feel for the barrel that enables him to drive the ball around the field, and his advanced approach will help that hit tool play up. He's 6'1", but he ultimately doesn't project for much more power and should remain more of an on-base type, and should hit 5-10 home runs annually in the majors with solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he is a smart player who should stick in center field, and ultimately he projects as a solid fourth outfielder. His ceiling is fairly limited due to his age, as he's a senior who turned 22 in April, but his competency for the game makes him a low-risk player. Strahm signed for $205,000, which was $170,200 below slot, and he's slashing .300/.385/.378 with two home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 19/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games, mostly with Spokane.
6-175: LHP Cody Bradford (Baylor, unranked)
Another pick, another Texan. Wendzel's teammate over at Baylor is a pitchability type who could have gone three rounds higher if he stayed healthy and pitched well this spring, though Cody Bradford instead missed most of the season with shoulder surgery. Bradford comes from Aledo, Texas, just passed where the Fort Worth suburbs end, and he posted a 4.91 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven innings before his surgery this season. His sophomore year was a better showcase of his ability where he had a 2.51 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings for the Bears. The 6'3" lefty uses his clean delivery to sit around 90 with his fastball when healthy, adding a decent curveball and a good changeup with plenty of fade. He commands everything well, and as a lefty with some height, the Rangers might be able to get a little more velocity out of him and turn him into a #4 starter. Of course, shoulder surgery (in this case for thoracic outlet syndrome) is anything but a smooth ride, so the very first thing on Bradford's docket will be getting and staying healthy, something that isn't a guarantee with these injuries. He signed for $700,000, which was $415,800 above slot, so the Rangers are clearly confident that he will recover.
12-355: RHP Gavin Collyer (Mountain View HS [GA], unranked)
My rankings went 140 deep this year, and Gavin Collyer was unfortunately the last guy out. Collyer is a 6'1" righty from the Atlanta area, showing plenty of arm strength and skills to work with but a long way to go one the mound. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and his slider can have really good shape at times, but it can also flatten out and become hittable. Collyer also throws with a lot of effort, leading to injury and relief concerns, but he's very skinny and has plenty of room to add good weight, so his quick arm should enable him to sit in that velocity range with less effort in the future if he takes well to the Rangers development program. It's a very high risk pick, but he has upside and joins a lot of similar arms in the Texas system. Committed to Clemson, he signed for $585,000, which counted for $460,000 against the Rangers' bonus pool.
27-805: RHP Mason Cole (Texas A&M, unranked)
I had to get one more Texan in here because why not. The A&M righty grew up in Round Rock, in the Austin area, but he has barely pitched upon getting to College Station due to multiple injuries. Mason Cole has actually only thrown 17.1 innings in three years for the Aggies, this year posting a 5.40 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings. When healthy, which isn't often, he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and show a good splitter, and at 6'6", he generates good plane on the ball. Given his injury history that includes both his elbow and shoulder, he's probably strictly a reliever for the Rangers, but the fastball/splitter combination could be a great find if he stays healthy. He signed for $85,000.
Also notable: Cody Bradford (6-175), Gavin Collyer (12-355), Mason Cole (27-805)
It was certainly a Texas-themed draft for the Rangers, as five of their first seven picks had some connection to the state of Texas whether it was a college or a hometown. They use their first two picks to save money on big time Texas college hitters, though overall, this wasn't the typical Rangers draft because they focused more on safety than on upside. Jung was my personal favorite pick overall, though overall aside from all the Texans (even fourth rounder and California high schooler Tyler Freeman was committed to Baylor), it was a fairly unremarkable draft, at least for now.
1-8: 3B Josh Jung (Texas Tech, my rank: 9)
The Rangers started it off in-state, grabbing who I would call the best second-tier college hitter in the country (the first tier being Adley Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, and JJ Bleday). Josh Jung, a San Antonio native out of Texas Tech, had a huge sophomore season in 2018 by slashing .392/.491/.639 with 12 home runs, and he was again one of the best hitters in the country in 2019. This year, he slashed .343/.474/.636 with 15 home runs and a 43/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, showing off a broad range of skills on the offensive side of the ball. Jung is 6'2" and he produces a ton of hard contact all over the field, and adding a little bit of loft could make him a legitimate threat for 25-30 home runs annually. He also has exceptional plate discipline and walked in 17.5% of his plate appearances this year, and his ability to wait for his pitch and barrel it up will certainly help his power play up in pro ball. There are some questions about his raw power given his current swing path and his bat speed, but he's such a competent hitter that he should be able to be a middle of the order bat at the major league level. Defensively, he has a very strong arm but he's still working on the glove side of things over there, and there is still a chance he ends up having to slide over to first base. Still, his bat will profile there. He signed for $4.4 million, which was $780,000 below slot, and he's slashing .433/.485/.667 with a home run and a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Hickory.
CBA-41: 3B Davis Wendzel (Baylor, my rank: 66)
Davis Wendzel may not be a true Texan like Jung, having grown up in Southern California (where he attended high school with Royce Lewis and Chase Strumpf), but three years in Waco makes him an honorary Texan that's good enough for the Rangers. Wendzel was draft eligible as a sophomore last season, but after slashing .310/.435/.532, he elected to return to Baylor and that turned out to be a wise decision. Despite missing some time with an oblique injury, he slashed .367/.484/.610 with eight home runs and a 37/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games, powering the Baylor offense to the Los Angeles regional. You can't miss him on the field; Wendzel might have been the most recognizable player in college baseball this year, as his beard/mullet combination is the stuff of legends. He has a big swing that has some length to it, but his great bat speed helps him hit the ball hard all over the field and over the fence. He also has solid plate discipline, and if he can add some loft to his swing, he could hit for both power and a high on-base percentage. Defensively, he's very competent at third base and should be a net positive there, with his gamer mentality helping everything play up. On the flip side, Wendzel turned 22 in May, making him the second oldest of the 78 players drafted on Day One and giving him less development time than his peers. Together, he has the upside of 20 home runs and high on-base percentages annually as well as good defense at third base. Of course, you have to take his age into account, and a realistic middle projection would be for 15 home runs and decent on-base percentages annually. He signed for $1.6 million, which was $210,000 below slot.
2-50: RHP Ryan Garcia (UCLA, my rank: 92)
I already spoke of Mississippi State's Ethan Small (Brewers), Missouri's TJ Sikkema (Yankees), and Texas A&M's John Doxakis (Rays) dominating the SEC in previous draft reviews, but UCLA's Ryan Garcia deserves just as much credit in the Pac-12. The LA-area native was untouchable for the Bruins this season, posting a 1.44 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 117/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings, including a 1.64 ERA in his tough conference slate. He won't blow anyone away with his stuff, using a low 90's fastball with some run, a solid slider, and a decent changeup to keep hitters always off balance. He has great command and exceptional feel for pitching, and those attributes will have to carry him through pro ball because he's only six feet tall and probably won't add much velocity. Because he's set there, the Rangers will want to work with him on sharpening and refining those secondary pitches so that his margin for error can grow, and he has the ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter. Working in his favor is that he also thrived in the elite Cape Cod League last summer, where he had a 1.29 ERA and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 28 innings. Garcia signed at slot for $1.47 million and has a 3.60 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio over five innings between the Arizona League and short season Spokane.
3-86: RHP Justin Slaten (New Mexico, unranked)
Getting back to the Texas theme, the Rangers took New Mexico hurler Justin Slaten, who grew up in the small East Texas town of Hallsville, near Longview. Slaten posted a 7.02 ERA as a sophomore this year but bounced back in a big way this year, posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 98/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. He's a 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, a good slider with two-plane break, and a developing curveball and changeup. The command is average if possibly a tick below, but he's got some upside with that projectable frame and could be a mid rotation starter if he refines his curve and/or changeup and gets more consistent with his command. Otherwise, his fastball/slider combination will play well in the bullpen. Slaten signed for $575,000, which was $224,700 below slot, and he has a 5.14 ERA, a 2.00 WHIP, and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seven innings between the Arizona League and Spokane.
4-115: SS Cody Freeman (Etiwanda HS [CA], unranked)
Indians prospect Tyler Freeman is slashing .315/.393/.436 in A ball this year, and now the Rangers have drafted his younger brother. Cody Freeman isn't a standout in any aspect of the game, but he's a very competent player with an all-around skill set, somewhat of a break from the typical toolsy, unrefined Rangers prospects you usually hear about. He has a smooth swing from the right side and even though he's a skinny 5'10", there is some power projection in there because he does a good job of creating leverage with his bat. Couple that with his good plate discipline, and you can see a potential high on-base percentage guy with 10-15 home runs per season and some speed. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at shortstop due to his feel for the game, though he would probably be a cleaner fit at second base. Committed to Baylor (more Texas!), Freeman signed for $900,000, which was $397,700 above slot, and he's slashing .245/.355/.302 with an 8/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games in the Arizona League.
5-145: OF Kellen Strahm (San Jose State, unranked)
Kellen Strahm is a college outfielder, but he's still somewhat of a similar player to Freeman. Known more as a slap hitter over his first two years at San Jose State, but be broke out this year with a .382/.487/.546 slash line, six home runs, and a 21/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games. The Eugene, Oregon native has a line drive swing and great feel for the barrel that enables him to drive the ball around the field, and his advanced approach will help that hit tool play up. He's 6'1", but he ultimately doesn't project for much more power and should remain more of an on-base type, and should hit 5-10 home runs annually in the majors with solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he is a smart player who should stick in center field, and ultimately he projects as a solid fourth outfielder. His ceiling is fairly limited due to his age, as he's a senior who turned 22 in April, but his competency for the game makes him a low-risk player. Strahm signed for $205,000, which was $170,200 below slot, and he's slashing .300/.385/.378 with two home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 19/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games, mostly with Spokane.
6-175: LHP Cody Bradford (Baylor, unranked)
Another pick, another Texan. Wendzel's teammate over at Baylor is a pitchability type who could have gone three rounds higher if he stayed healthy and pitched well this spring, though Cody Bradford instead missed most of the season with shoulder surgery. Bradford comes from Aledo, Texas, just passed where the Fort Worth suburbs end, and he posted a 4.91 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven innings before his surgery this season. His sophomore year was a better showcase of his ability where he had a 2.51 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings for the Bears. The 6'3" lefty uses his clean delivery to sit around 90 with his fastball when healthy, adding a decent curveball and a good changeup with plenty of fade. He commands everything well, and as a lefty with some height, the Rangers might be able to get a little more velocity out of him and turn him into a #4 starter. Of course, shoulder surgery (in this case for thoracic outlet syndrome) is anything but a smooth ride, so the very first thing on Bradford's docket will be getting and staying healthy, something that isn't a guarantee with these injuries. He signed for $700,000, which was $415,800 above slot, so the Rangers are clearly confident that he will recover.
12-355: RHP Gavin Collyer (Mountain View HS [GA], unranked)
My rankings went 140 deep this year, and Gavin Collyer was unfortunately the last guy out. Collyer is a 6'1" righty from the Atlanta area, showing plenty of arm strength and skills to work with but a long way to go one the mound. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and his slider can have really good shape at times, but it can also flatten out and become hittable. Collyer also throws with a lot of effort, leading to injury and relief concerns, but he's very skinny and has plenty of room to add good weight, so his quick arm should enable him to sit in that velocity range with less effort in the future if he takes well to the Rangers development program. It's a very high risk pick, but he has upside and joins a lot of similar arms in the Texas system. Committed to Clemson, he signed for $585,000, which counted for $460,000 against the Rangers' bonus pool.
27-805: RHP Mason Cole (Texas A&M, unranked)
I had to get one more Texan in here because why not. The A&M righty grew up in Round Rock, in the Austin area, but he has barely pitched upon getting to College Station due to multiple injuries. Mason Cole has actually only thrown 17.1 innings in three years for the Aggies, this year posting a 5.40 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings. When healthy, which isn't often, he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and show a good splitter, and at 6'6", he generates good plane on the ball. Given his injury history that includes both his elbow and shoulder, he's probably strictly a reliever for the Rangers, but the fastball/splitter combination could be a great find if he stays healthy. He signed for $85,000.
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