This is a weird system, and not just because it's filled with extreme hitter-friendly venues that skew numbers every step of the way (keep that in mind when reading numbers pretty much anywhere other than for AA Hartford). The Rockies are really deep in the infield, with guys like Brendan Rodgers, Colton Welker, Ryan Vilade, Michael Toglia, Aaron Schunk, and plenty more all looking like they could have impact potential at the major league level. That makes the Nolan Arenado trade rumors a bit easier to stomach, but either way, the Rockies have been and will have to continue to be with the positions they deploy these kids at. Elsewhere around the system, there isn't a lot of depth, though I see outfielder and 2019 draftee Brenton Doyle as a sleeper to keep an eye on. On the mound, I'm not even sure where to begin. Ryan Rolison is just about the only safe bet as a starting pitcher, as many former top pitching prospects have seen their command completely fall apart, most notable former first rounders Mike Nikorak and Riley Pint as well as guys like Robert Tyler and Justin Lawrence. That said, with a couple of successes like Ben Bowden and potentially Jacob Wallace, as well as all these failed starters converting to relievers, their does look to be a lot of bullpen help on the way. So that's good.
Affiliates: AAA Albuquerque Isotopes, AA Hartford Yard Goats, High A Lancaster JetHawks, Class A Asheville Tourists, short season Boise Hawks, rookie level Grand Junction Rockies, complex level DSL Rockies
Catcher
- Willie MacIver (2020 Age: 23): Some systems are blessed with catching depth, while some, like the Rockies system, are a little lighter. That's good news for Willie MacIver, who was able to stand out with a decent pro debut in 2019. Drafted in the ninth round out of Washington in 2018, he slashed .252/.319/.421 with 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 105/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Class A Asheville in 2019. He played a lot of corner infield at Washington, but the Rockies have stuck him behind the plate and he should stick back there with a strong arm and improving actions. He'll have to stick back there because he's an average hitter overall, and his Class A numbers were a bit inflated by a hitter-friendly home park (.315/.388/.540 at home, .189/.248/.302 on the road). Overall, he has a chance to work his way up as a potential back-up catcher, and his best path to that will be refining his glove a bit more.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Cordova, Robert Mendoza
Corner Infield
- Colton Welker (2020 Age: 22): Welker was the Rockies' fourth round pick out of Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida in 2016, and he's hit everywhere he's been on his way up through the Rockies' minor league rungs. In 2019, he slashed .252/.313/.408 with ten home runs and a 68/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 games at AA Hartford, actually dropping his strikeout rate in the upper minors. He's a very good all-around hitter with some power and great feel for the barrel, and the reduction in his strikeout rate is a good sign. I don't see him as a true power hitter, but with the thin air in Colorado, he could hit 20 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages. He's a very good defender at third base, but the Rockies already have some guy named Nolan Arenado there, so his future position might be first base, where his bat should profile anyways.
- Tyler Nevin (2020 Age: 22-23): Nevin, a competitive balance pick out of a San Diego-area high school in 2015 and the son of former big leaguer Phil Nevin, has had an interesting run. After missing all but one game in 2016 with hamstring problems, he hit well in hitter-friendly environments in A ball over the next two years. In 2019, he slashed .251/.345/.399 with 13 home runs and a 90/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Hartford, solid numbers for his first time in a neutral park setting. He's a big guy at 6'4" and controls the strike zone well, but the Rockies would probably like to see him get to his power just a little bit more if he wants to break into the starting lineup in 2020 or 2021. It's not that he struggles to get to it, he just has a bit of a line drive-oriented swing that's more conducive to extra base hits than to home runs, even in the hitter-friendly environments he played in up until 2019. Because he's such a competent hitter, adding a bit of loft should be able to help him tap that power and get up over 20 home runs a year, especially in the thin air at Coors, and he began to do that just a bit in 2019 at AA. He's competent enough at third base, but that's a crowded situation even beyond Nolan Arenado, so first base is more likely if he can hit his way past Colton Welker, Ryan McMahon, and Roberto Ramos.
- Ryan Vilade (2020 Age: 21): The last time the Rockies drafted the son of an Oklahoma State baseball coach, it went pretty well and Matt Holliday remains one of the better players in the team's history. Vilade will hope to follow in his footsteps after a second round selection out of Holliday's alma mater, Stillwater High School in 2017. In 2019, Vilade's bat came alive in the extreme hitter-friendly context of High A Lancaster, where he slashed .303/.367/.466 with 12 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 95/56 strikeout to walk ratio in 128 games. He's started to grow into his power in his 6'2" frame, showing innate feel for both the barrel and the strike zone as well as good base stealing acumen. As a strong defender that profiles well at third base, he actually has a pretty similar overall profile to Colton Welker, just one year younger and one level behind. Between Arenado, Welker, and Vilade, the Rockies have a glut of third basemen, so Vilade may have to learn to play some second base or somehow stretch it at shortstop if he wants to keep moving up. I like him and he's supposedly a hard worker, but we'll have to see how he handles AA Hartford in 2019, which will be his first non-hitter-friendly assignment.
- Michael Toglia (2020 Age: 21): I thought this may have been just a bit of a reach at the 23rd overall pick in 2019, but the Rockies and the thin air at Coors Field are as good a fit as any for Toglia and I don't blame Colorado for jumping on his tremendous raw power at that pick. After wrapping up his season with UCLA, he slashed .248/.369/.483 with nine home runs and a 45/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games at short season Boise, about expected given his skill set. He's a 6'5" switch hitter with, as I mentioned before, tremendous raw power, and his patient approach helps him get to it against advanced pitching. There are some questions about his hit tool, and he did struggle a bit in the elite Cape Cod League as an amateur, but he's also young for a college junior and won't turn 22 until August, giving him that much extra development time. If all goes right, he could hit 30+ home runs annually for the Rockies; he just carries a little bit more bust risk than the typical collegiate first round bat.
- Aaron Schunk (2020 Age: 22-23): Here's another third baseman to throw into the mix. Schunk was drafted in the second round out of Georgia in 2019, then slashed .306/.370/.503 with six home runs and a 25/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at short season Boise in his pro debut. He's hit over power at this point, with great feel for the barrel that enables him to avoid strikeouts extremely well, but also an aggressive approach that limits his walks. There is some power in his 6'2" frame and he began to tap it in his junior season in Athens, and I think he could end up a very productive hitter if he can continue to do so in pro ball. Aside from AA Hartford, all of the Rockies' affiliates are very conducive to home runs, which is fitting for a team that plays at Coors Field, so his power will have every chance to play up. He's also a very strong defender at third base, perhaps the best in the system, so he might only have to hit for a little bit of power so long as the hit tool plays up. The one slight down side to Schunk's profile is his age, as he'll turn 23 in July and will probably want to move more quickly. How the Rockies are going to sort out this third base situation, I'm not sure, but it's a good problem to have.
- Grant Lavigne (2020 Age: 20): Lavigne has only played 185 minor league games so far, but it's been a bit of a roller coaster for him already. The top high school prospect to come out of New Hampshire in a long time, Lavigne opened a lot of eyes with a strong senior season at Bedford High School, earning a bit of a surprising competitive balance selection in the 2018 draft. He then proceeded to light the world on fire by slashing .350/.477/.519 with more walks (45) than strikeouts (40) in rookie ball, an even more surprising development considering he was supposed to be very raw after facing mediocre competition in the Manchester area. 2019 was again surprising, this time in the opposite direction, as he slashed .236/.347/.327 with seven home runs and a 129/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Class A Asheville, a hitter-friendly venue. So where do we stand now? Lavigne is a big guy at 6'4", and he has a ton of power in his left handed bat that will play well at Coors. He's also a patient hitter that is more than willing to take a walk and boost his on-base percentage, though that passive approach may have been part of what bit him this year. Lavigne will have to learn to confidently attack his pitch to get to his power, and if he can figure it out, he could hit a lot of home runs in that thin air. He'll have to hit, because he's limited to first base defensively and will be battling Michael Toglia on his way up the ladder.
- Keep an eye on: Josh Fuentes, Roberto Ramos, Brian Mundell, Julio Carreras
Middle Infield
- Brendan Rodgers (2020 Age: 23-24): Rodgers has been the Rockies' top prospect for quite a few years now, and it's hard to believe he'll still play most of the 2020 season at 23 years old. The third overall pick out of an Orlando-area high school in 2015, Rodgers has come along methodically, his numbers usually skewed by the Rockies' bevy of hitter-friendly affiliates. We thought we'd finally see what he could do at the big league level in 2019, but a shoulder injury ended his season in July. Before the injury, he slashed .350/.413/.622 with nine home runs and a 27/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games at AAA Albuquerque, as well as .224/.272/.250 with a 27/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games at the major league level. There's no question about his talent, as he clearly possesses above average power with a knack for finding the barrel and getting to that power regularly, which helps him project for high on-base percentages. It's been tough for him to stay on the field consistently though, and he looked overmatched in his first taste of the major leagues back in May and June. To be honest, it's hard to say whether Rodgers will right the ship and become a Troy Tulowitzki-esque star, or if he'll end up more of a fringe-starter like Ryan McMahon. He's always had a better hit tool than McMahon, and if he can just stay healthy, I think he eventually does figure it out and end up as the long term second baseman in Colorado with 20-25 Coors-aided home runs annually and high on-base percentages.
- Alan Trejo (2020 Age: 23-24): The Rockies love to deploy their infield prospects all over the diamond, but as the one true shortstop prospect in the system, Alan Trejo can stand out a bit better than he might in other systems. In 2019, he slashed .243/.290/.391 with 15 home runs and a 105/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at AA Hartford, which is likely an improvement over the .278/.329/.425 line he put up at the hitters' paradise of High A Lancaster last year. The former 16th round pick out of San Diego State in 2017 has grown into some power, which he now gets to enough to pair nicely with his above average defense at shortstop. He likely won't ever be a regular starter, especially with Trevor Story entrenched at his position, but he's the best defender out of the Rockies' slew of infield prospects and that gives him a leg up.
- Terrin Vavra (2020 Age: 22-23): Vavra was a very advanced player coming out of the University of Minnesota, but the Rockies surprised me a bit by having him spend his entire first full season at Class A Asheville after drafting him in the third round in 2018. At Asheville, he slashed .318/.409/.489 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and an even 62/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games, though I would have really liked to have seen how he would have handled a promotion up to High A. The lefty has a quick swing and great feel for both the barrel and the strike zone, which enabled him to blast 32 doubles in addition to his ten home runs in his hitter-friendly confines, though the home road splits were a little bit frightening: 400/.484/.640 at home vs .224/.320/.316 on the road. My guess is his power doesn't play up and he ends up more as a 5-10 home run guy, but his ability to make hard contact and control the zone should help him be at least a solid utility infielder if not a potential starting second baseman down the road.
- Eddy Diaz (2020 Age: 20): Diaz stole 84 bases with an on-base percentage over .400 over two years in the Dominican Summer League, then was tested with a stateside assignment in 2019. The teenager held up well, slashing .331/.366/.440 with 20 stolen bases and a 33/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at rookie level Grand Junction, and he may get tested again with a full season deployment at 20 years old in 2020. Diaz' power is entirely to the gaps for now, as he's yet to hit a home run in 126 professional games, but he puts the bat on the ball extremely easily and uses his exceptional speed to wreak havoc on the basis, now with 104 stolen bases in those 126 games. After posting an 86% stolen base success rate in the DSL, he dropped a bit to 69% in the Pioneer League, so one key going forward will be learning how to best deploy his speed against better and better catchers. The Rockies will also hope that he can grow into some moderate power, which could really make him an all-around threat. For now, he projects as a speedy utility-infielder who is capable if not eye popping at shortstop.
- Keep an eye on: Bret Boswell, Kyle Datres, Christian Koss, Bladimir Restituyo, Adael Amador
Outfield
- Sam Hilliard (2020 Age: 26): Hilliard has moved slowly since he was drafted in the 15th round out of Wichita State in 2015, but he's hit everywhere he's gone and he finally cracked the majors in 2019. Starting at AAA Albuquerque, which is even more hitter-friendly than Coors, he slashed .262/.335/.558 with 35 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 164/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games, then hit .273/.356/.649 with seven home runs and a 23/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 major league games. Colorado has been a blessing for him, as he doesn't have as much power as the typical 6'5" slugger but he has just enough to play up in the thin air, likely giving him more of a Coors advantage than most other hitters. He does have some strikeout concerns, which will make 2020 a very illuminating season as major league pitchers begin to find the holes in his swing. Unlike most outfielders his size, he runs very well, which has enabled him to steal more than 20 bases in four consecutive minor league seasons and which also enables him to play above average defense in center field. Given the Rockies don't have a clear option in center field, he only has to hit his way past Raimel Tapia and Yonathan Daza if he wants to start there. His bat should still profile in right.
- Yonathan Daza (2020 Age: 26): Daza is one of the best defensive outfielders in the minors, let alone in this system, so he really only has to hit a little bit in order to be relevant. In 2019, he slashed .364/.404/.548 with eleven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 52/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at AAA Albuquerque, as well as .206/.257/.237 with a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio in 44 major league games. The explosive line in AAA this year was more of a mirage than anything else given both Albuquerque's home park and the juiced balls, but he's had a history of making consistent contact everywhere he's gone and his speed should help him get to some nice gap power, especially with the big outfield at Coors Field. He likely won't ever hit enough to start regularly, but he's an excellent option as a fourth outfielder who can help lock down those spacious gaps on the defensive side late in games as well as swing the bat a little bit.
- Jimmy Herron (2020 Age: 23-24): Herron was the Cubs' third round pick out of Duke in 2018, but after he slashed just .220/.320/.336 with four home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 66/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at High A Myrtle Beach in 2019, they shipped him to the Rockies for cash. His bat caught fire in the hitters' heaven of High A Lancaster, where he slashed .338/.403/.544 with four home runs, a pair of stolen bases, and a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games to close out the season. None of Herron's tools stand out, but he's a very competent all-around player who provides value in a multitude of ways. He's got some moderate power that could play up to double digit home run totals at Coors Field, and his strong plate discipline enables him to get on base regularly and avoid strikeouts. He also has speed that helps him on the base paths and in center field, and overall it adds up to a nice fourth/fifth outfielder profile, though I think the total package is just a bit light if he wants to start regularly.
- Brenton Doyle (2020 Age: 21-22): Doyle went in the fourth round out of DII Shepherd University in West Virginia in 2019, then put on a show in his pro debut by slashing .383/.477/.611 with eight home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 47/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at rookie level Grand Junction. To me, this immediately shoots his stock up, as he demolished DII pitching to the tune of a .392/.502/.758 slash line in 2019 but was completely unproven against advanced pitching. While the Pioneer League isn't the stiffest competition either, it's a big step up from where he was before that and the numbers were almost as remarkable. Doyle brings a lot of power in his 6'3" frame, but he's far from just a slugger. His strong plate discipline helped him make the transition from DII to the pros without a hitch, and it should continue to help him as he works his way up through the minors. He's an asset defensively as well, with above average speed and arm strength, and he could be the best outfield prospect in the system a year from now. He's still fairly unproven but keep an eye on him, this is my favorite sleeper in the system.
- Keep an eye on: Vince Fernandez, Matt Hearn, Niko Decolati, Daniel Montano
Starting Pitching
- Ryan Rolison (2020 Age: 22-23): There is no question who the top pitching prospect in this system is. Rolison was selected towards the end of the first round in 2018 out of Ole Miss, then dominated the rookie level Pioneer League in his debut. The Rockies started him out at Class A Asheville in 2019, but after he posted a 0.61 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 14/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.2 innings, he earned a quick bump to High A Lancaster within three weeks. Context considered, he pitched pretty well there, posting a 4.87 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 118/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.1 innings in one of the toughest places to pitch in professional baseball. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but his bread and butter is his big downer curveball, one with plus movement that he can command extremely well. He also adds a slider and a changeup, and his overall command is good enough to make everything play up despite a lack of radar-popping velocity. The key to the 6'2" lefty's success going forward will be keeping the ball on the ground, as the thin air in both AAA Albuquerque and at Coors Field will do him no favors. Rolison has a pretty clear mid-rotation projection with #2 starter upside.
- Ryan Feltner (2020 Age: 23): Feltner finds himself in a similar situation to where Will Gaddis and Lucas Gilbreath were last year, riding a day two draft selection to an up and down first full season in the Class A Asheville rotation. Both Gaddis and Gilbreath struggled a bit at High A Lancaster this year and saw their stock dinged a bit, so we'll see how Feltner fares in his shot next year. The Rockies' fourth round pick out of Ohio State in 2018, he posted a 5.07 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 116/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings for Asheville, a hitter-friendly context which also wasn't the most aggressive assignment for a collegiate starter. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which was enough to overpower Class A hitters on its own at times, while the rest of his game is still coming along. His breaking ball is somewhat inconsistent and he gets good drop on his changeup, but the command is inconsistent enough that it doesn't quite help his stuff play up. He's the kind of guy that could take a big step forward at any moment, but for now, he has #4/#5 starter projection with a good chance he ends up in the bullpen.
- Karl Kauffman (2020 Age: 22): The Rockies drafted Kauffman in the second competitive balance round in 2019, but a long postseason run for Michigan that culminated in a College World Series Championship loss to Vanderbilt meant that Kauffman didn't pitch professionally afterwards. However, he did pitch well during the postseason run, elevating his stock enough post-draft for the Rockies to continue to feel very good about their selection. Kauffman sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it gets enough run and sink on it that it's tough to square up and it makes his other pitches play up. He adds a decent slider and a pretty good changeup, and he commands everything well enough for it to play up. He has some reliever risk but there's a good foundation to build on, and the movement he gets on his fastball should help him keep the ball on the ground as he works through the most hitter-friendly system in the game on his way to the most hitter-friendly major league ballpark.
- Will Ethridge (2020 Age: 22): Ethridge, the Rockies' fifth round pick out of Ole Miss in 2019, is a pretty ordinary pitching prospect whose feel for the game stands out above his pure stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a decent slider and changeup, both of which have their moments, and his command is decent if unspectacular. He did make a strong impression in his pro debut, posting a 3.82 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at short season Boise, and he has a track record of success in the SEC. He's a big guy at 6'5" and he knows how to pitch, so the Rockies will hope for some small steps forward in the areas of stuff or command in order for him to fulfill his ceiling as a #4 or #5 starter.
- Helcris Olivarez (2020 Age: 19-20): The youngest notable pitcher in this system, Olivarez posted a 0.64 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 innings in the Dominican Summer League in 2019 before finally earning a promotion to rookie level Grand Junction. He held his own in the thin air, posting a 4.82 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 61/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings, giving the Rockies hope they may have found a future big league starter. He's athletic and is already sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball as a teenager, though the rest of his game needs work. He adds a curve and a changeup that both need more consistency, and like most kids his age, his command comes and goes. That said, it's fairly advanced for a teenager, and his loose, athletic delivery gives the Rockies some hope he can stick as a starter unlike so many of their recent top pitching prospects.
- Jared Horn (2020 Age: 21-22): Horn was a potential first round pick coming out of high school in Napa, California, but he instead opted to attend Cal. It was there that he had to pitch under the toughest of circumstances, because in the fall of his sophomore year, a drunk driver crashed into the car he was driving and killed all four of his passengers: his father, brother, uncle, and cousin. After an understandably rough sophomore season and an appendectomy to being his junior year, he went on a remarkable run that led to a seventh round selection in the 2019 draft. He held his own in his pro debut this year, posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 33/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 innings at rookie level Grand Junction. Horn sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal with a curve, slider, and changeup, and he has made progress with his command of all four pitches. He does throw with some effort and the stuff might be a hair light if he wants to start, but he's trending in the right direction and since he doesn't turn 22 until July, he's young for a college draftee. I do think his most likely destination is the bullpen, but if there's anybody worth rooting for, it's Horn.
- Keep an eye on: Ryan Castellani, Ty Culbreth, Lucas Gilbreath, Colten Schmidt, Mitchell Kilkenny
Relief Pitching
- Ben Bowden (2020 Age: 25): Bowden, a second round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2016, has made easy work of the gauntlet of hitter-friendly venues in the Rockies system. In 2019, he completely shut down the Eastern League with a 1.05 ERA, a 0.58 WHIP, and a 42/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings at AA Hartford, then earned a promotion to AAA Albuquerque where he had a 5.88 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP, and a 37/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings at one of the toughest places to pitch in minor league baseball. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and gets lots of swings and misses on his changeup, which has great movement down in the zone. His slider is improving but isn't quite a put-away pitch at this point, while his command is decent but not great. He'll be walking a fine line as a fly ball pitcher at Coors Field, but he's also a bat-missing lefty that isn't afraid to go right after hitters. It's hard to project him as a closer at Coors, but we'll see how he fares there in 2020.
- Tommy Doyle (2020 Age: 23-24): Doyle, the Rockies' competitive balance pick in 2017 out of UVA, has moved slower than most college relievers, but he has also handled each hitter-friendly level very well. In 2019, he posted a 3.25 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 48/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings at High A Lancaster, doing so with a mid 90's fastball and a power slider that both miss bats. He's also shown solid command, and while I don't think he's necessarily a future closer, he has a pretty high floor and is a fairly safe bet to land somewhere in the Colorado bullpen.
- Robert Tyler (2020 Age: 24-25): After missing the entire 2017 season with shoulder problems, Tyler took a nice step forward in 2018 before falling apart again in 2019, when he had an 8.16 ERA, a 1.95 WHIP, and a 36/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 28.2 innings at High A Lancaster. I wanted to leave him off this list entirely, but he did save himself with two things; one, he has been adept at getting ground balls and strikeouts, which is a big positive in this system, and two, he closed out 2019 by allowing just one run on four hits and two walks while striking out nine batters in his final six appearances, spanning 6.1 innings. That's way too tiny of a sample to say he officially figured it out, but when you throw upper 90's fastballs and add one of the best changeups in the system, you'll take any glimmer of hope you can get. If he can figure out a way to maintain reasonably mediocre command, then Tyler could be a valuable reliever down the line.
- Jacob Wallace (2020 Age: 21-22): Wallace served as UConn's closer in 2019 and was absolutely dominant, especially late in the season, and that earned him a third round selection in the draft. He was strong in his pro debut as well, posting a 1.29 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 29/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 innings at short season Boise, which could help him move quickly through a system that usually brings pitchers along slowly. He's got a mid to upper 90's fastball and an inconsistent slider that flashes plus, and unlike many of the other power arms in this system, he can command everything decently well. The key for Wallace going forward will be refining that slider into a true plus pitch, which he should be able to do considering he's young for a college draftee and won't turn 22 until August, and he could end up a set-up man or even a closer in Colorado.
- Riley Pint (2020 Age: 22): The Rockies took big armed high school pitchers in back to back first rounds in 2015 and 2016, but unfortunately, Mike Nikorak and Riley Pint are a combined 4-24 with a 6.10 ERA and a 203/206 strikeout to walk ratio over just 224.1 innings so far in pro ball. While Nikorak, the 27th overall pick in 2015, is basically just roster filler at best at this point, Pint, the fourth overall pick in 2016, does still have some hope. In 2019, he transitioned to the bullpen and posted an 8.66 ERA, a 2.43 WHIP, and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.2 innings at Class A Asheville – that's ugly. But you can't argue with the stuff, as he easily sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a deep assortment of secondary pitches, any of which can get generate big swings and misses when they're going right. Unfortunately, to this point, he has not even remotely figured out how to get his stuff over the plate, let alone command it where he wants it. Hopefully, a full season in the bullpen in 2020 will get him back on track, and he'll still be just 22 for the entire season. Like Tyler, if he doesn't figure it out this year, though, I have a hard time projecting him to ever reach the majors.
- Keep an eye on: Reid Humphreys, Justin Lawrence, Jacob Kostyshock, Gavin Hollowell, Jordan Spicer
Showing posts with label Ryan Rolison. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Rolison. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Sunday, January 13, 2019
Reviewing the Colorado Rockies Farm System
The Rockies face a unique challenge in that playing at Coors Field is unlike playing anywhere else. Hitters who can get the ball in the air are preferred, and pitchers who succeed with velocity and swing and miss stuff are preferred over those who pitch to contact. Rockies prospects also face a fairly unique climb through the minors, as every affiliate except for AA Hartford is hitter-friendly, preparing players for Coors Field but also testing the confidence of the pitchers. The system now is pretty top heavy, with a few very interesting names as the top prospects, but there is a sharp drop off after the best eight or so prospects, leaving the system without a ton of depth. Interestingly, there are virtually no outfield or catching prospects of much significance, with the hitters playing various positions throughout the infield.
Affiliates: AAA Albuquerque Isotopes, AA Hartford Yard Goats, High A Lancaster JetHawks, Class A Asheville Tourists, Short Season Boise Hawks, rookie level Grand Junction Rockies, and complex level DSL Rockies
*Note: when evaluating stats from this system, it is important to remember that virtually every affiliate, save for AA Hartford, is hitter-friendly, with High A Lancaster being the most hitter friendly stadium in the most hitter friendly league in minor league baseball.
The Headliner: 2B/3B Brendan Rodgers
22 year old former third overall pick Brendan Rodgers is the best prospect in the Rockies' system and likely one of the top fifteen or so in the game, showing an impact bat with the ability to play a strong second or third base. In 2018, he slashed .260/.330/.460 with 17 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque, though he was much better at Hartford (.275/.342/.493) than Albuquerque (.232/.264/.290). He has power and drives the ball well to all fields, and he's just about major league ready well short of his 23rd birthday. Really, all the Orlando area native has left to work on is his approach at the plate, as it is good enough for him to punish AA pitching but was exposed in AAA. While he is able to hit for power while avoiding high numbers of strikeouts, he doesn't draw many walks and major league pitchers will just pound the corners against him. With some work in spring training and early 2019, he should be major league ready soon, and if he's armed with an improved approach, he should be an impact bat in the Colorado lineup. While he profiles best as a third baseman defensively with his strong arm, Nolan Arenado has that spot locked down and Rodgers is more likely to fill in at second base in 2019 behind Daniel Murphy, after which he can give the Rockies third base insurance in the case that Arenado leaves via free agency.
Starting Pitching Options: RHP Peter Lambert, RHP Rico Garcia, RHP Jesus Tinoco, RHP Ryan Castellani, RHP Riley Pint, and LHP Ryan Rolison
While the Rockies' emphasis on velocity has led to many of their pitching prospects ending up in the bullpen, they have managed to develop a nice set of starting pitchers ready to compete against their exceptionally young starting rotation. 21 year old Peter Lambert is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, just completing a season in the high minors where he went 10-7 with a 3.28 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 106/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings at AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque. He was dominant at Hartford (2.23 ERA, 75/12 K/BB) but took some lumps in his transition to hitter-friendly Albuquerque (5.04 ERA, 31/15 K/BB), though he still held his own at the higher level and should be able to master it in 2019. He is a very advanced, mid-rotation looking pitcher with a low to mid 90's fastball, decent breaking pitches, a great changeup, and great command of it all that helps it all play up. He can locate any of his pitches and routinely gets ahead in the count, enabling him to keep hitters guessing even with his good-not-great stuff. He did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2018 and if he can continue to do so in Colorado, Lambert could have a long career as a #3 starter. 25 year old Rico Garcia had a fantastic season statistically, going 13-9 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 162/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 167 innings at High A Lancaster and Hartford, looking completely unfazed both by the hitters' paradise in Lancaster (3.42 ERA) and by the promotion up to AA (2.28 ERA). Turning 25 as I write this article, Garcia has been a bit older than the competition he is facing, and the former 30th round pick's stuff is just average at this point. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good curveball, and he has been effective at landing his pitches for strikes. He's probably more of a #4 or #5 starter in the majors, but his numbers don't lie and he may not be challenged until he reaches the majors. 23 year old Jesus Tinoco has been around forever, having played professional baseball since 2012 and having been included in the Troy Tulowitzki trade of 2015. Working slowly through the minors, the 6'4" righty posted a 4.79 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 innings at Hartford in 2018. He has good stuff all around and avoids walks, but he has been hurt by his tendency to leave pitches over the plate and falls victim to the home run ball. He has the chance to be a solid #3 or #4 starter if he can get a bit more consistent with his command, where he is trending in the right direction, but Colorado might not be the best environment for him if he can't keep balls in the park. 22 year old Ryan Castellani moved quickly through the minors for a high school draftee before stalling a bit in AA, taking a step back in 2018 with a 5.49 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a 91/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings in his second year at the level. While his stuff is very good, he struggled with command this year and without a turnaround in 2019, he's likely headed for the bullpen, where his very good fastball/slider combination will play up. He doesn't turn 23 until the beginning of the season and he already has plenty of experience in the high minors, albeit without much success there, giving him time to turn things around. 21 year old Riley Pint has the highest ceiling in the system, though like fellow former first rounder/electric armed pitcher Mike Nikorak, he has struggled with his command and his health. One online scouting report before the 2016 draft, where Pint was the fourth overall pick out of high school near Kansas City, wrote that Pint threw "poorly aimed lightning bolts" and honestly I think that is the best summation of his pitching that I have heard. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit as high as 102, and with his solid and deep assortment of secondary pitches, he has ace-like stuff. However, he frequently has no idea where his fastball is going, and the truth is, major league hitters can hit 102 when it's over the plate and they're ahead in the count. The other issue with Pint has been health, with forearm and oblique issues limiting him to four starts in 2018, in which he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 2.04 WHIP, and an 8/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings at short season Boise and Class A Asheville. He's basically a huge question mark at this point, but some consistent time on the mound might help his command improve, after which he could take off towards his top of the rotation potential. Lastly, 21 year old Ryan Rolison was a first round pick (22nd overall) out of Ole Miss in 2018, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings with rookie level Grand Junction after the draft. While the rest of his game is good, he's most well known for his curveball, a true plus pitch with great break and which he can command well enough to throw in any count. He also adds a low 90's fastball and some feel for a slider and a changeup, giving him #2 starter upside. His biggest issue in college was start to start consistency with his command, though if it is resolved soon he could move quickly through the minors.
Bat First Prospects: 3B Colton Welker, 1B Tyler Nevin, 1B Grant Lavigne, 1B Roberto Ramos, OF Vince Fernandez, OF Casey Golden, 2B Terrin Vavra, and OF Niko Decolati
Among the bat-first prospects, which in general are the better position-playing prospects in the system, there are really two tiers with three potential impact bats (after Rodgers) and five guys who are more likely to be utility/bench options, of course with plenty more fringe prospects behind them that won't be mentioned here. We'll start with 21 year old Colton Welker, a talented all-around third base prospect who slashed .333/.383/.489 with 13 home runs and a 103/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at the hitters' paradise in High A Lancaster. Welker has no real weaknesses in his game, showing on-base ability, some power, and good defense at third base, but he also lacks a standout tool. The Rockies have a ton of corner infield prospects but competition aside, he looks like a potential starter there if he continues to produce as he moves through the system, but if he has trouble making the transition to AA, his outlook may be downgraded to utility infielder. 21 year old Tyler Nevin played across from Welker in that Lancaster infield, slashing .328/.386/.503 with 13 home runs and a 77/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games. As with Welker, those numbers are inflated due to the environment, but he shows a similar skill set at the plate with the ability to get on base and hit for some power. However, Welker is the better prospect because of defensive value, as Nevin is an average-fielding first baseman while Welker has a good glove at third base. While you can argue back and forth over who is the better hitter (Welker is the better pure hitter while Nevin has a hair more power potential due to his size), Welker will get more chances if the bat falters due to that defensive versatility. Lastly among the first tier hitters, 19 year old Grant Lavigne has been a very pleasant surprise. Drafted in the competitive balance round (42nd overall) out of a New Hampshire high school this year, Lavigne's bat was a question mark just due to the fact that New Hampshire high school pitching is nowhere near the caliber that, for example, Welker faced in south Florida or Nevin faced in San Diego. However, Lavigne answered those questions emphatically by slashing .350/.477/.519 with six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against advanced competition at rookie level Grand Junction. He showed the thunder in his bat but more importantly, he showed a very advanced approach against the best pitching he had ever seen, and even though he's limited to first base defensively, he could move to the top of the prospect charts very quickly with a successful year in A ball in 2019. Moving into the second tier, 24 year old Roberto Ramos had a big year by slashing .269/.368/.574 with 32 home runs and a 140/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Lancaster and AA Hartford. While his line was much better at Lancaster (.304/.411/.640) than at Hartford (.231/.320/.503), he still maintained a high walk rate and plenty of power even with the promotion, meaning to me that the bat is for real. He's a first baseman who strikes out a lot, so that will likely keep him from becoming a starter in the majors, but there is enough power in the bat to profile well at Coors Field and give him a shot as a bench option. 23 year old Vince Fernandez, arguably the best outfield prospect in a system that has very few of those, slashed .265/.370/.532 with 24 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Lancaster. The altitude definitely inflated his power numbers some, but he still hit nearly as many home runs as Welker and Nevin combined while adding 25 doubles and eight triples, and he has plenty of patience at the plate which helps push up his on-base percentage. However, he'll have to cut down on the strikeouts if he wants to succeed even at AA, and at this point he looks like a fourth or fifth outfielder. Right behind him is 24 year old power hitting outfielder Casey Golden, who slashed .278/.359/.562 with 34 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 180/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Asheville, another power-friendly environment. Add in his 20 home runs in his pro debut last season and he now has 54 home runs, 37 doubles, and four triples over 178 pro games for a total of 95 extra base hits, though his plate discipline needs serious work. Having turned 24 at the end of the 2018 season, he's been striking out way too much against younger competition, but if he can somehow figure out a way to shore up that approach quickly, that power and speed will play very nicely at Coors Field. 21 year old Terrin Vavra was a third round pick (96th overall) out of Minnesota who slashed .302/.396/.467 with four home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 40/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at short season Boise, like Welker showing a little bit of everything. He doesn't have Welker's power, but he has a very keen approach at the plate and sprays line drives all over the field while holding his own with decent second base defense. He's a classic utility infielder projection but could surprise if he can add some power. Lastly, 21 year old Niko Decolati was a sixth rounder out of Loyola Marymount in the same draft, coming into pro ball with plenty of batting practice power but struggling to get to it in games. He had an uphill climb in learning to do so with wood bats after mostly failing to do so with metal, but the Rockies must have done something right with him as he slashed .327/.414/.532 with 11 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 56/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Grand Junction. Decolati is still very much an under the radar prospect, but if whatever adjustments the Rockies had him make hold in the higher levels, he won't be under the radar much longer. Watch Decolati closely.
Glove First Prospects: 2B Garrett Hampson, 3B Ryan Vilade, OF Josh Fuentes, OF Sam Hilliard, and OF Yonathan Daza
Much like with the bat-first prospects, there are two tiers with these players. Garrett Hampson and Ryan Vilade can also swing it and have a good shot at ending up as starters, while the rest are likely going to be relegated to bench and utility duties. 24 year old Garrett Hampson is the best prospect in the group, having finished a 2018 where he slashed .311/.382/.462 with ten home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 75/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Hartford and hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque before putting up a .275/.396/.400 line in a quick 24 game debut with the Rockies. While the bat may be a bit light if he wants to stick as a starter long term, he's a good enough defender to handle second or third base and has an advanced approach at the plate that will enable him to handle major league pitching. Nolan Arenado has a tight grip on third base for 2019 and Daniel Murphy is a newcomer at second base, so Hampson and Rodgers will have to battle it out for the remainder of the plate appearances. While Rodgers will likely take a little more AAA seasoning, Hampson is ready now and should be set to break camp as a utility infielder. 19 year old Ryan Vilade had a so-so season, slashing .274/.353/.368 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at hitter-friendly Class A Asheville. While Class A is a moderately advanced assignment for a teenager, Asheville's short fences produce a lot of home runs and Vilade's lack of power output was a bit disappointing. Still, he handled Sally League pitching well otherwise and the Rockies hope that he'll hit for more power in 2019, which would make him a very attractive prospect given his advanced approach at the plate and good defense on the left side of the infield. In the second tier, 25 year old Josh Fuentes slashed .327/.354/.517 with 14 home runs and a 103/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque in 2018, showing enough thump in his bat to get a chance in 2019. He probably won't ever start regularly in the majors, but with the ability to both swing it and play in the infield, he figures to factor into the Colorado bench equation this season. 24 year old Sam Hilliard is a fourth outfielder type who slashed .262/.327/.389 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 151/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Hartford, posting the worst numbers of his career in his first season in a non-hitter friendly environment (for comparison, he slashed .300/.360/.487 with 21 home runs at hitters' paradise Lancaster in 2017). He has some speed and plays great defense despite standing 6'5", but the bat is ultimately too light to start and he looks kind of like a Drew Stubbs-type player with less power. He'll definitely be useful in Colorado as a bench asset to man that extensive outfield and suck up fly balls. 24 year old Yonathan Daza is in a similar boat to Hilliard, having slashed .306/.330/.461 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games at Hartford this year, missing a good chunk of the season with hamstring issues. He's considered an even better defender than Hilliard, though he's more of a line drive/slap hitter while Hilliard is balanced with moderate power and moderate on-base ability. In that sense, I think Hilliard is the slightly better prospect because he could have more impact with the bat if he makes enough contact, but Daza's defense will buy the bat time and he could be something of a DJ LeMahieu type at the plate in a best case scenario.
Relief Options: RHP Reid Humphreys, RHP Justin Lawrence, LHP Ben Bowden, RHP Robert Tyler, and RHP Tommy Doyle
The Rockies have a very solid group of relievers in the minors, perhaps one of the better groups in baseball. Relievers aren't necessarily the most prized prospects, but it's something the Rockies can hang their hats on. No single reliever stands out as the best prospect, but 24 year old Reid Humphreys is the most advanced out of what I would call the five best relief prospects in the system. The 6'1" righty out of Mississippi State posted a 2.03 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 58/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings at High A Lancaster and AA Hartford, handling the tough environment at Lancaster very well before letting his command get away from him in a short stint at Hartford. He's a fastball/cutter guy who sits in the mid to upper 90's with the former and can generate a ton of weak contact with the latter, and he can use his slider to give hitters another look. His command comes and goes, but if he can get a bit more consistent with it, then he can use his velocity and array of moving pitches to survive Coors Field as a solid reliever. 24 year old Justin Lawrence, born just four days after Humphreys, spent all of 2018 at Lancaster and posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 62/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings. Like Humphreys, he throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, which features more movement and deception and generates plenty of ground balls. His secondary pitches aren't as advanced as Humphreys', but he does have a slider to give hitters a different look and keep them from sitting on the fastball. Overall, Humphreys is probably the better pitcher but Lawrence's sinking fastball will help him thrive at Coors Field. 24 year old Ben Bowden is more of a complete pitcher than Humphreys or Lawrence, mixing a mid 90's fastball with a slider and a good changeup, all of which he commands pretty well. That helped him post a 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 78/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at Class A Asheville and Lancaster a year after missing all of 2017 to back issues. Fully healthy now, the big, 6'4" lefty should move quickly through the minors and settle in as an 8th inning type soon. 23 year old Robert Tyler is an interesting pitcher simply because of his velocity. His upper 90's fastball got him drafted in the competitive balance round (38th overall) out of Georgia in 2016, though he hasn't quite translated that velocity to results yet. After missing 2017 with shoulder issues, he posted a 5.10 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 57/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.2 innings at Asheville and Lancaster, giving up more hits and hard contact than you'd expect because hitters could get ahead in the count and sit on the fastball, or because he would leave it over the plate. His changeup is good and gives hitters a second look, but he won't break through until he learns to hit his spots. Lastly, 22 year old Tommy Doyle, who I played against when I was 11-12 in Little League in Virginia (he struck me out in my only plate appearance against him), posted a 2.31 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings in Asheville, using a mid 90's fastball and a good slider from a 6'6" frame to miss bats. He dominated younger competition in 2018, so how he handles the higher levels and more age-appropriate competition in 2019 will be interesting. He also has set-up man possibilities but more likely profiles as a middle reliever.
Affiliates: AAA Albuquerque Isotopes, AA Hartford Yard Goats, High A Lancaster JetHawks, Class A Asheville Tourists, Short Season Boise Hawks, rookie level Grand Junction Rockies, and complex level DSL Rockies
*Note: when evaluating stats from this system, it is important to remember that virtually every affiliate, save for AA Hartford, is hitter-friendly, with High A Lancaster being the most hitter friendly stadium in the most hitter friendly league in minor league baseball.
The Headliner: 2B/3B Brendan Rodgers
22 year old former third overall pick Brendan Rodgers is the best prospect in the Rockies' system and likely one of the top fifteen or so in the game, showing an impact bat with the ability to play a strong second or third base. In 2018, he slashed .260/.330/.460 with 17 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque, though he was much better at Hartford (.275/.342/.493) than Albuquerque (.232/.264/.290). He has power and drives the ball well to all fields, and he's just about major league ready well short of his 23rd birthday. Really, all the Orlando area native has left to work on is his approach at the plate, as it is good enough for him to punish AA pitching but was exposed in AAA. While he is able to hit for power while avoiding high numbers of strikeouts, he doesn't draw many walks and major league pitchers will just pound the corners against him. With some work in spring training and early 2019, he should be major league ready soon, and if he's armed with an improved approach, he should be an impact bat in the Colorado lineup. While he profiles best as a third baseman defensively with his strong arm, Nolan Arenado has that spot locked down and Rodgers is more likely to fill in at second base in 2019 behind Daniel Murphy, after which he can give the Rockies third base insurance in the case that Arenado leaves via free agency.
Starting Pitching Options: RHP Peter Lambert, RHP Rico Garcia, RHP Jesus Tinoco, RHP Ryan Castellani, RHP Riley Pint, and LHP Ryan Rolison
While the Rockies' emphasis on velocity has led to many of their pitching prospects ending up in the bullpen, they have managed to develop a nice set of starting pitchers ready to compete against their exceptionally young starting rotation. 21 year old Peter Lambert is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, just completing a season in the high minors where he went 10-7 with a 3.28 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 106/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings at AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque. He was dominant at Hartford (2.23 ERA, 75/12 K/BB) but took some lumps in his transition to hitter-friendly Albuquerque (5.04 ERA, 31/15 K/BB), though he still held his own at the higher level and should be able to master it in 2019. He is a very advanced, mid-rotation looking pitcher with a low to mid 90's fastball, decent breaking pitches, a great changeup, and great command of it all that helps it all play up. He can locate any of his pitches and routinely gets ahead in the count, enabling him to keep hitters guessing even with his good-not-great stuff. He did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2018 and if he can continue to do so in Colorado, Lambert could have a long career as a #3 starter. 25 year old Rico Garcia had a fantastic season statistically, going 13-9 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 162/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 167 innings at High A Lancaster and Hartford, looking completely unfazed both by the hitters' paradise in Lancaster (3.42 ERA) and by the promotion up to AA (2.28 ERA). Turning 25 as I write this article, Garcia has been a bit older than the competition he is facing, and the former 30th round pick's stuff is just average at this point. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good curveball, and he has been effective at landing his pitches for strikes. He's probably more of a #4 or #5 starter in the majors, but his numbers don't lie and he may not be challenged until he reaches the majors. 23 year old Jesus Tinoco has been around forever, having played professional baseball since 2012 and having been included in the Troy Tulowitzki trade of 2015. Working slowly through the minors, the 6'4" righty posted a 4.79 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 innings at Hartford in 2018. He has good stuff all around and avoids walks, but he has been hurt by his tendency to leave pitches over the plate and falls victim to the home run ball. He has the chance to be a solid #3 or #4 starter if he can get a bit more consistent with his command, where he is trending in the right direction, but Colorado might not be the best environment for him if he can't keep balls in the park. 22 year old Ryan Castellani moved quickly through the minors for a high school draftee before stalling a bit in AA, taking a step back in 2018 with a 5.49 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a 91/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings in his second year at the level. While his stuff is very good, he struggled with command this year and without a turnaround in 2019, he's likely headed for the bullpen, where his very good fastball/slider combination will play up. He doesn't turn 23 until the beginning of the season and he already has plenty of experience in the high minors, albeit without much success there, giving him time to turn things around. 21 year old Riley Pint has the highest ceiling in the system, though like fellow former first rounder/electric armed pitcher Mike Nikorak, he has struggled with his command and his health. One online scouting report before the 2016 draft, where Pint was the fourth overall pick out of high school near Kansas City, wrote that Pint threw "poorly aimed lightning bolts" and honestly I think that is the best summation of his pitching that I have heard. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit as high as 102, and with his solid and deep assortment of secondary pitches, he has ace-like stuff. However, he frequently has no idea where his fastball is going, and the truth is, major league hitters can hit 102 when it's over the plate and they're ahead in the count. The other issue with Pint has been health, with forearm and oblique issues limiting him to four starts in 2018, in which he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 2.04 WHIP, and an 8/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings at short season Boise and Class A Asheville. He's basically a huge question mark at this point, but some consistent time on the mound might help his command improve, after which he could take off towards his top of the rotation potential. Lastly, 21 year old Ryan Rolison was a first round pick (22nd overall) out of Ole Miss in 2018, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings with rookie level Grand Junction after the draft. While the rest of his game is good, he's most well known for his curveball, a true plus pitch with great break and which he can command well enough to throw in any count. He also adds a low 90's fastball and some feel for a slider and a changeup, giving him #2 starter upside. His biggest issue in college was start to start consistency with his command, though if it is resolved soon he could move quickly through the minors.
Bat First Prospects: 3B Colton Welker, 1B Tyler Nevin, 1B Grant Lavigne, 1B Roberto Ramos, OF Vince Fernandez, OF Casey Golden, 2B Terrin Vavra, and OF Niko Decolati
Among the bat-first prospects, which in general are the better position-playing prospects in the system, there are really two tiers with three potential impact bats (after Rodgers) and five guys who are more likely to be utility/bench options, of course with plenty more fringe prospects behind them that won't be mentioned here. We'll start with 21 year old Colton Welker, a talented all-around third base prospect who slashed .333/.383/.489 with 13 home runs and a 103/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at the hitters' paradise in High A Lancaster. Welker has no real weaknesses in his game, showing on-base ability, some power, and good defense at third base, but he also lacks a standout tool. The Rockies have a ton of corner infield prospects but competition aside, he looks like a potential starter there if he continues to produce as he moves through the system, but if he has trouble making the transition to AA, his outlook may be downgraded to utility infielder. 21 year old Tyler Nevin played across from Welker in that Lancaster infield, slashing .328/.386/.503 with 13 home runs and a 77/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games. As with Welker, those numbers are inflated due to the environment, but he shows a similar skill set at the plate with the ability to get on base and hit for some power. However, Welker is the better prospect because of defensive value, as Nevin is an average-fielding first baseman while Welker has a good glove at third base. While you can argue back and forth over who is the better hitter (Welker is the better pure hitter while Nevin has a hair more power potential due to his size), Welker will get more chances if the bat falters due to that defensive versatility. Lastly among the first tier hitters, 19 year old Grant Lavigne has been a very pleasant surprise. Drafted in the competitive balance round (42nd overall) out of a New Hampshire high school this year, Lavigne's bat was a question mark just due to the fact that New Hampshire high school pitching is nowhere near the caliber that, for example, Welker faced in south Florida or Nevin faced in San Diego. However, Lavigne answered those questions emphatically by slashing .350/.477/.519 with six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against advanced competition at rookie level Grand Junction. He showed the thunder in his bat but more importantly, he showed a very advanced approach against the best pitching he had ever seen, and even though he's limited to first base defensively, he could move to the top of the prospect charts very quickly with a successful year in A ball in 2019. Moving into the second tier, 24 year old Roberto Ramos had a big year by slashing .269/.368/.574 with 32 home runs and a 140/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Lancaster and AA Hartford. While his line was much better at Lancaster (.304/.411/.640) than at Hartford (.231/.320/.503), he still maintained a high walk rate and plenty of power even with the promotion, meaning to me that the bat is for real. He's a first baseman who strikes out a lot, so that will likely keep him from becoming a starter in the majors, but there is enough power in the bat to profile well at Coors Field and give him a shot as a bench option. 23 year old Vince Fernandez, arguably the best outfield prospect in a system that has very few of those, slashed .265/.370/.532 with 24 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Lancaster. The altitude definitely inflated his power numbers some, but he still hit nearly as many home runs as Welker and Nevin combined while adding 25 doubles and eight triples, and he has plenty of patience at the plate which helps push up his on-base percentage. However, he'll have to cut down on the strikeouts if he wants to succeed even at AA, and at this point he looks like a fourth or fifth outfielder. Right behind him is 24 year old power hitting outfielder Casey Golden, who slashed .278/.359/.562 with 34 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 180/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Asheville, another power-friendly environment. Add in his 20 home runs in his pro debut last season and he now has 54 home runs, 37 doubles, and four triples over 178 pro games for a total of 95 extra base hits, though his plate discipline needs serious work. Having turned 24 at the end of the 2018 season, he's been striking out way too much against younger competition, but if he can somehow figure out a way to shore up that approach quickly, that power and speed will play very nicely at Coors Field. 21 year old Terrin Vavra was a third round pick (96th overall) out of Minnesota who slashed .302/.396/.467 with four home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 40/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at short season Boise, like Welker showing a little bit of everything. He doesn't have Welker's power, but he has a very keen approach at the plate and sprays line drives all over the field while holding his own with decent second base defense. He's a classic utility infielder projection but could surprise if he can add some power. Lastly, 21 year old Niko Decolati was a sixth rounder out of Loyola Marymount in the same draft, coming into pro ball with plenty of batting practice power but struggling to get to it in games. He had an uphill climb in learning to do so with wood bats after mostly failing to do so with metal, but the Rockies must have done something right with him as he slashed .327/.414/.532 with 11 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 56/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Grand Junction. Decolati is still very much an under the radar prospect, but if whatever adjustments the Rockies had him make hold in the higher levels, he won't be under the radar much longer. Watch Decolati closely.
Glove First Prospects: 2B Garrett Hampson, 3B Ryan Vilade, OF Josh Fuentes, OF Sam Hilliard, and OF Yonathan Daza
Much like with the bat-first prospects, there are two tiers with these players. Garrett Hampson and Ryan Vilade can also swing it and have a good shot at ending up as starters, while the rest are likely going to be relegated to bench and utility duties. 24 year old Garrett Hampson is the best prospect in the group, having finished a 2018 where he slashed .311/.382/.462 with ten home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 75/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Hartford and hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque before putting up a .275/.396/.400 line in a quick 24 game debut with the Rockies. While the bat may be a bit light if he wants to stick as a starter long term, he's a good enough defender to handle second or third base and has an advanced approach at the plate that will enable him to handle major league pitching. Nolan Arenado has a tight grip on third base for 2019 and Daniel Murphy is a newcomer at second base, so Hampson and Rodgers will have to battle it out for the remainder of the plate appearances. While Rodgers will likely take a little more AAA seasoning, Hampson is ready now and should be set to break camp as a utility infielder. 19 year old Ryan Vilade had a so-so season, slashing .274/.353/.368 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at hitter-friendly Class A Asheville. While Class A is a moderately advanced assignment for a teenager, Asheville's short fences produce a lot of home runs and Vilade's lack of power output was a bit disappointing. Still, he handled Sally League pitching well otherwise and the Rockies hope that he'll hit for more power in 2019, which would make him a very attractive prospect given his advanced approach at the plate and good defense on the left side of the infield. In the second tier, 25 year old Josh Fuentes slashed .327/.354/.517 with 14 home runs and a 103/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque in 2018, showing enough thump in his bat to get a chance in 2019. He probably won't ever start regularly in the majors, but with the ability to both swing it and play in the infield, he figures to factor into the Colorado bench equation this season. 24 year old Sam Hilliard is a fourth outfielder type who slashed .262/.327/.389 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 151/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Hartford, posting the worst numbers of his career in his first season in a non-hitter friendly environment (for comparison, he slashed .300/.360/.487 with 21 home runs at hitters' paradise Lancaster in 2017). He has some speed and plays great defense despite standing 6'5", but the bat is ultimately too light to start and he looks kind of like a Drew Stubbs-type player with less power. He'll definitely be useful in Colorado as a bench asset to man that extensive outfield and suck up fly balls. 24 year old Yonathan Daza is in a similar boat to Hilliard, having slashed .306/.330/.461 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games at Hartford this year, missing a good chunk of the season with hamstring issues. He's considered an even better defender than Hilliard, though he's more of a line drive/slap hitter while Hilliard is balanced with moderate power and moderate on-base ability. In that sense, I think Hilliard is the slightly better prospect because he could have more impact with the bat if he makes enough contact, but Daza's defense will buy the bat time and he could be something of a DJ LeMahieu type at the plate in a best case scenario.
Relief Options: RHP Reid Humphreys, RHP Justin Lawrence, LHP Ben Bowden, RHP Robert Tyler, and RHP Tommy Doyle
The Rockies have a very solid group of relievers in the minors, perhaps one of the better groups in baseball. Relievers aren't necessarily the most prized prospects, but it's something the Rockies can hang their hats on. No single reliever stands out as the best prospect, but 24 year old Reid Humphreys is the most advanced out of what I would call the five best relief prospects in the system. The 6'1" righty out of Mississippi State posted a 2.03 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 58/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings at High A Lancaster and AA Hartford, handling the tough environment at Lancaster very well before letting his command get away from him in a short stint at Hartford. He's a fastball/cutter guy who sits in the mid to upper 90's with the former and can generate a ton of weak contact with the latter, and he can use his slider to give hitters another look. His command comes and goes, but if he can get a bit more consistent with it, then he can use his velocity and array of moving pitches to survive Coors Field as a solid reliever. 24 year old Justin Lawrence, born just four days after Humphreys, spent all of 2018 at Lancaster and posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 62/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings. Like Humphreys, he throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, which features more movement and deception and generates plenty of ground balls. His secondary pitches aren't as advanced as Humphreys', but he does have a slider to give hitters a different look and keep them from sitting on the fastball. Overall, Humphreys is probably the better pitcher but Lawrence's sinking fastball will help him thrive at Coors Field. 24 year old Ben Bowden is more of a complete pitcher than Humphreys or Lawrence, mixing a mid 90's fastball with a slider and a good changeup, all of which he commands pretty well. That helped him post a 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 78/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at Class A Asheville and Lancaster a year after missing all of 2017 to back issues. Fully healthy now, the big, 6'4" lefty should move quickly through the minors and settle in as an 8th inning type soon. 23 year old Robert Tyler is an interesting pitcher simply because of his velocity. His upper 90's fastball got him drafted in the competitive balance round (38th overall) out of Georgia in 2016, though he hasn't quite translated that velocity to results yet. After missing 2017 with shoulder issues, he posted a 5.10 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 57/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.2 innings at Asheville and Lancaster, giving up more hits and hard contact than you'd expect because hitters could get ahead in the count and sit on the fastball, or because he would leave it over the plate. His changeup is good and gives hitters a second look, but he won't break through until he learns to hit his spots. Lastly, 22 year old Tommy Doyle, who I played against when I was 11-12 in Little League in Virginia (he struck me out in my only plate appearance against him), posted a 2.31 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings in Asheville, using a mid 90's fastball and a good slider from a 6'6" frame to miss bats. He dominated younger competition in 2018, so how he handles the higher levels and more age-appropriate competition in 2019 will be interesting. He also has set-up man possibilities but more likely profiles as a middle reliever.
Saturday, July 14, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Colorado Rockies
First 5 rounds: Ryan Rolison (1-22), Grant Lavigne (CBA-42), Mitchell Kilkenny (2-76), Terrin Vavra (3-96), Ryan Feltner (4-126), Jacob Bird (5-156)
Also notable: Niko Decolati (6-186), Andrew Quezada (7-216), Kyle Datres (12-366), Kumar Rocker (38-1146)
The Rockies always have to take a slightly different approach to drafting, knowing that it's a different game in Coors Field. They have traditionally gone for pitching prospects with velocity or who get lots of ground balls. Curveballs don't break as much at altitude, which is why they would conceivably shy away from them. They leaned heavily on college players by taking just one high schooler, second rounder Grant Lavigne, in their first 33 picks, and leaned slightly more on pitching but not heavily. Overall, they got a lot of talent, though part of me feels like they could have gotten just a bit more.
1-22: LHP Ryan Rolison (my rank: 21)
This pick makes no sense to me. Ryan Rolison is a great arm that is absolutely a first round talent, but he relies on his curveball, something that he definitely won't be able to do at altitude in Colorado. It's just odd to me that the Rockies would go for him with more fastball-oriented college pitchers like Jackson Kowar and Shane McClanahan still on the board. Rolison is a 6'2" righty out of Ole Miss who was draft-eligible as a sophomore this year, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 innings. He was fairly inconsistent, especially towards the end of the season, but it's important to remember that he was pitching in the SEC with all those powerhouse teams. His 28% strikeout rate was still very impressive, especially in the SEC, though his 10.5% walk rate was a little high. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, but his best pitch is his curveball, which has big break and can be used in any count in any location. He also throws a changeup that is nothing special but should continue develop. His command is just okay, and he suffers through bouts of wildness, and improving that consistency there will be his key to the majors. He's only 6'2" and seems physically mature, but getting on a pro workout regimen should help him maintain his fastball in the 94-95 range when all is said and done. For most teams, that's a potential #2 starter profile, but because his curveball won't be as effective at altitude, he might become more of a #3 or #4 guy. He did dominate the Cape Cod League last summer (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB in 28 IP) and he's younger than most college players drafted this year, having just turned 21 a few days ago. He signed for just over $2.9 million, right at slot, and he allowed one run on one hit and no walks over two innings in his rookie level Pioneer League debut, striking out two.
CBA-42: 1B Grant Lavigne (my rank: 68)
This pick is the opposite of the Rolison pick. My rankings might show this as a bit of a reach, but the Rockies are the perfect team for a power hitting first baseman like Lavigne and he could really thrive in Coors. He's a 6'4" left handed slugger from just outside Manchester, New Hampshire, one with huge power and a great swing that won't need much tweaking. On the flip side, he's kind of a one-tool player, as he provides little value on defense, can't really run, and hadn't proven himself against real pitching. Playing in New Hampshire, he really didn't face much in terms of quality arms, so whether he can make contact against more advanced pitching in pro ball was a question. It's a risk, but that power will play very nicely in Coors Field. He signed for $2 million, which is $296,000 over slot, but I used a lot of past tense in that paragraph because he's ripping the cover off the ball in the minors so far. Through 18 games in the rookie level Pioneer League, which is an aggressive assignment for a high schooler from New Hampshire, he's slashing .391/.475/.623 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio, answering many questions about his contact ability. That performance alone would be enough for me to bump him up 35-40 slots in my rankings if I could do it over.
2-76: RHP Mitchell Kilkenny (my rank: 90)
Kilkenny wrapped up a successful three year career at Texas A&M with a solid junior year where he was 8-5 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 97 innings, facing a lot of SEC competition. It was his first full season as a starter and he looked like a seasoned veteran. The 6'4" righty is your generic college pitching prospect, showing a low 90's fastball with a good slider and a decent changeup, commanding it all well and showing some projection to boot. He's one of those guys with the ceiling of a #3 starter but a very good chance to make the majors, a low risk pick in the second compensation round. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery after the draft and won't be ready to pitch until at least mid-2019. He signed for $550,000, which is $237,200 below slot.
3-96: SS Terrin Vavra (unranked)
Vavra is a solid hitting shortstop out of the University of Minnesota, putting up his best year as a junior by slashing .386/.455/.614 with ten home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 22/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. He's a guy who does a little bit of everything at the plate with his moderate power, good contact and keen eye. On defense, he probably won't stay at shortstop and has a better chance of becoming a decent second baseman. It all adds up to a nice package, but because his one main tool is in the contact/plate discipline department, his power will have to play up in order for him to start in the majors. Like Kilkenny, he also signed for $550,000, though he was $31,900 under slot. He's off to a great start in the short-season level Northwest League, slashing .406/.472/.563 with a home run, three stolen bases, and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio in eight games.
4-126: RHP Ryan Feltner (unranked)
This is a typical Rockies pick. Feltner has been mediocre as a starter at Ohio State, posting his best season this year but going 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio in 91.2 innings. He'll be better off in relief, where he'll be able to sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and have his decent slider and good changeup play up. There is incentive to try to keep him as a starter because he can still run his fastball into the mid 90's late in games, but he just hasn't had the results there. His command has been inconsistent, and hopefully as a reliever he'll get more consistent there. His fastball does lack life and he lacks much deception, which has also made his stuff play down. After struggling as a starter on the Cape in 2016 (14.88 ERA, 12/10 K/BB in 16.1 IP), he was much better as a reliever in 2017 (0.00 ERA, 15/7 K/BB in 15.1 IP). He signed for $434,700, right at slot, and tossed two shutout innings on one hit and one walk in his first appearance in the Pioneer League, striking out two.
Others: 5th rounder Jacob Bird was inconsistent over his first three years at UCLA, when he was used mostly in a swing role, but he took off with a great senior year this year. In 16 starts, he went 7-4 with a 2.18 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 61/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.2 innings, showing workhorse ability and great command that helped him get outs even without premium stuff. The 6'3" righty has the chance to push his way to the majors as a #4 or #5 starter. 6th rounder Niko Decolati comes from Loyola Marymount, where he was better as a sophomore (.320/.426/.432, 4 HR, 53/22 K/BB) than as a junior (.271/.367/.444, 6 HR, 60/23 K/BB). He's an enigma as a prospect, showing great power in batting practice but struggling to convert that power to games. He'll have an uphill battle trying to make it play up in pro ball with wood bats, but Coors Field is the best place for him to be able to get to that power and is therefore probably the best team he could have ended up with. With an August birthday, he's also one of the younger college juniors out there. 7th rounder Andrew Quezada was pretty good for Cal State Fullerton this year, going 4-5 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 58/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 innings over 14 stats. He has great command, which helps his low 90's fastball, good slider, and good changeup play up, but none are good enough to generate tons of swings and misses. Like Bird, he'll look for a back of the rotation spot, but he could also end up in the bullpen. As a reliever on the Cape last summer, he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 innings. 12th rounder Kyle Datres has been taking care of business as the UNC third baseman for three years now, getting better each year and finishing his junior year with a .345/.438/.511 line, seven home runs, and a 38/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. He is good at a lot of things at the plate but not great at any, showing satisfactory power, contact, and patience. If he adds a little loft to his swing and the power breaks through, he could be a starting second or third baseman in the majors, but because he's a year old for his class (turned 22 in January), he has less time to make those adjustments. A good grab in the 12th round. Lastly, 38th rounder Kumar Rocker didn't sign, as he was a first round talent who fell due to a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. Rocker is a 6'5" righty from high school near Athens, Georgia, and his thick build makes him look a bit more like a football player than a pitcher, drawing comparisons to C.C. Sabathia. He has a power arm that can throw fastballs in the mid 90's, and his slider looks plus at times as well. He can be inconsistent with his control, but it's better than a lot of high school pitchers, and he has ace upside. It may take him some time to adjust to facing SEC competition at Vanderbilt, but he should emerge by his sophomore year as one of the best arms in the conference. He ranked 20th on my list.
Also notable: Niko Decolati (6-186), Andrew Quezada (7-216), Kyle Datres (12-366), Kumar Rocker (38-1146)
The Rockies always have to take a slightly different approach to drafting, knowing that it's a different game in Coors Field. They have traditionally gone for pitching prospects with velocity or who get lots of ground balls. Curveballs don't break as much at altitude, which is why they would conceivably shy away from them. They leaned heavily on college players by taking just one high schooler, second rounder Grant Lavigne, in their first 33 picks, and leaned slightly more on pitching but not heavily. Overall, they got a lot of talent, though part of me feels like they could have gotten just a bit more.
1-22: LHP Ryan Rolison (my rank: 21)
This pick makes no sense to me. Ryan Rolison is a great arm that is absolutely a first round talent, but he relies on his curveball, something that he definitely won't be able to do at altitude in Colorado. It's just odd to me that the Rockies would go for him with more fastball-oriented college pitchers like Jackson Kowar and Shane McClanahan still on the board. Rolison is a 6'2" righty out of Ole Miss who was draft-eligible as a sophomore this year, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 innings. He was fairly inconsistent, especially towards the end of the season, but it's important to remember that he was pitching in the SEC with all those powerhouse teams. His 28% strikeout rate was still very impressive, especially in the SEC, though his 10.5% walk rate was a little high. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, but his best pitch is his curveball, which has big break and can be used in any count in any location. He also throws a changeup that is nothing special but should continue develop. His command is just okay, and he suffers through bouts of wildness, and improving that consistency there will be his key to the majors. He's only 6'2" and seems physically mature, but getting on a pro workout regimen should help him maintain his fastball in the 94-95 range when all is said and done. For most teams, that's a potential #2 starter profile, but because his curveball won't be as effective at altitude, he might become more of a #3 or #4 guy. He did dominate the Cape Cod League last summer (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB in 28 IP) and he's younger than most college players drafted this year, having just turned 21 a few days ago. He signed for just over $2.9 million, right at slot, and he allowed one run on one hit and no walks over two innings in his rookie level Pioneer League debut, striking out two.
CBA-42: 1B Grant Lavigne (my rank: 68)
This pick is the opposite of the Rolison pick. My rankings might show this as a bit of a reach, but the Rockies are the perfect team for a power hitting first baseman like Lavigne and he could really thrive in Coors. He's a 6'4" left handed slugger from just outside Manchester, New Hampshire, one with huge power and a great swing that won't need much tweaking. On the flip side, he's kind of a one-tool player, as he provides little value on defense, can't really run, and hadn't proven himself against real pitching. Playing in New Hampshire, he really didn't face much in terms of quality arms, so whether he can make contact against more advanced pitching in pro ball was a question. It's a risk, but that power will play very nicely in Coors Field. He signed for $2 million, which is $296,000 over slot, but I used a lot of past tense in that paragraph because he's ripping the cover off the ball in the minors so far. Through 18 games in the rookie level Pioneer League, which is an aggressive assignment for a high schooler from New Hampshire, he's slashing .391/.475/.623 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio, answering many questions about his contact ability. That performance alone would be enough for me to bump him up 35-40 slots in my rankings if I could do it over.
2-76: RHP Mitchell Kilkenny (my rank: 90)
Kilkenny wrapped up a successful three year career at Texas A&M with a solid junior year where he was 8-5 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 97 innings, facing a lot of SEC competition. It was his first full season as a starter and he looked like a seasoned veteran. The 6'4" righty is your generic college pitching prospect, showing a low 90's fastball with a good slider and a decent changeup, commanding it all well and showing some projection to boot. He's one of those guys with the ceiling of a #3 starter but a very good chance to make the majors, a low risk pick in the second compensation round. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery after the draft and won't be ready to pitch until at least mid-2019. He signed for $550,000, which is $237,200 below slot.
3-96: SS Terrin Vavra (unranked)
Vavra is a solid hitting shortstop out of the University of Minnesota, putting up his best year as a junior by slashing .386/.455/.614 with ten home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 22/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. He's a guy who does a little bit of everything at the plate with his moderate power, good contact and keen eye. On defense, he probably won't stay at shortstop and has a better chance of becoming a decent second baseman. It all adds up to a nice package, but because his one main tool is in the contact/plate discipline department, his power will have to play up in order for him to start in the majors. Like Kilkenny, he also signed for $550,000, though he was $31,900 under slot. He's off to a great start in the short-season level Northwest League, slashing .406/.472/.563 with a home run, three stolen bases, and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio in eight games.
4-126: RHP Ryan Feltner (unranked)
This is a typical Rockies pick. Feltner has been mediocre as a starter at Ohio State, posting his best season this year but going 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio in 91.2 innings. He'll be better off in relief, where he'll be able to sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and have his decent slider and good changeup play up. There is incentive to try to keep him as a starter because he can still run his fastball into the mid 90's late in games, but he just hasn't had the results there. His command has been inconsistent, and hopefully as a reliever he'll get more consistent there. His fastball does lack life and he lacks much deception, which has also made his stuff play down. After struggling as a starter on the Cape in 2016 (14.88 ERA, 12/10 K/BB in 16.1 IP), he was much better as a reliever in 2017 (0.00 ERA, 15/7 K/BB in 15.1 IP). He signed for $434,700, right at slot, and tossed two shutout innings on one hit and one walk in his first appearance in the Pioneer League, striking out two.
Others: 5th rounder Jacob Bird was inconsistent over his first three years at UCLA, when he was used mostly in a swing role, but he took off with a great senior year this year. In 16 starts, he went 7-4 with a 2.18 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 61/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.2 innings, showing workhorse ability and great command that helped him get outs even without premium stuff. The 6'3" righty has the chance to push his way to the majors as a #4 or #5 starter. 6th rounder Niko Decolati comes from Loyola Marymount, where he was better as a sophomore (.320/.426/.432, 4 HR, 53/22 K/BB) than as a junior (.271/.367/.444, 6 HR, 60/23 K/BB). He's an enigma as a prospect, showing great power in batting practice but struggling to convert that power to games. He'll have an uphill battle trying to make it play up in pro ball with wood bats, but Coors Field is the best place for him to be able to get to that power and is therefore probably the best team he could have ended up with. With an August birthday, he's also one of the younger college juniors out there. 7th rounder Andrew Quezada was pretty good for Cal State Fullerton this year, going 4-5 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 58/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 innings over 14 stats. He has great command, which helps his low 90's fastball, good slider, and good changeup play up, but none are good enough to generate tons of swings and misses. Like Bird, he'll look for a back of the rotation spot, but he could also end up in the bullpen. As a reliever on the Cape last summer, he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 innings. 12th rounder Kyle Datres has been taking care of business as the UNC third baseman for three years now, getting better each year and finishing his junior year with a .345/.438/.511 line, seven home runs, and a 38/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. He is good at a lot of things at the plate but not great at any, showing satisfactory power, contact, and patience. If he adds a little loft to his swing and the power breaks through, he could be a starting second or third baseman in the majors, but because he's a year old for his class (turned 22 in January), he has less time to make those adjustments. A good grab in the 12th round. Lastly, 38th rounder Kumar Rocker didn't sign, as he was a first round talent who fell due to a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. Rocker is a 6'5" righty from high school near Athens, Georgia, and his thick build makes him look a bit more like a football player than a pitcher, drawing comparisons to C.C. Sabathia. He has a power arm that can throw fastballs in the mid 90's, and his slider looks plus at times as well. He can be inconsistent with his control, but it's better than a lot of high school pitchers, and he has ace upside. It may take him some time to adjust to facing SEC competition at Vanderbilt, but he should emerge by his sophomore year as one of the best arms in the conference. He ranked 20th on my list.
Monday, June 4, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 College LHP's
The college lefty class is a bit more spread out than the high school lefty class, though it does lack the impact arms of the college righty class. Ryan Rolison and Shane McClanahan have both been up and down this season, but no one stepped forward quite enough to keep them from being the top two in the demographic.
1. Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss)
There is no clear top of the draft college lefty, but Ryan Rolison has been doing his best to ensure he's the first one off the board. After a very good freshman season, he has been a bit more inconsistent as a draft-eligible sophomore, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, getting roughed up against some admittedly tough SEC opponents. The 6'2" lefty lacks much physical projection but already throws in the low to mid 90's with arguably the draft's best curveball, one he can spot to either side of the plate and generate plenty of swings and misses with. He also dominated the Cape Cod League with it (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB) and is younger than most draft eligible college players, turning 21 in July. If he can improve his fastball command, he'll be able to deploy his curveball more strategically and could be in impact arm. He'll have to do that though, or else pro hitters will just sit on that curve. He could go anywhere in the first round outside the top ten picks.
2. Shane McClanahan (South Florida)
McClanahan looked like a candidate to go in the top five picks last fall, but an up and down spring has clouded his draft status. Over 14 starts, he went 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 120/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings, proving to be both wild and overwhelming. The 6'1" lefty's best trait is fastball velocity, as he has hit 100 before and can sit in the mid to upper 90's, even as a starter. That alone keeps him in the first round conversation, but the rest of his game needs work. His changeup is excellent at its best but has been inconsistent, and he has never quite developed a reliable breaking ball, something he'll need to do at the pro level to remain a starter. His command is also spotty, which could push him to the bullpen, where he could close. He's a high upside arm that could blossom under pro coaching, but he has a lot to work on for a college pitcher. He could go anywhere from the middle of the first round to the end of it.
3. Daniel Lynch (Virginia)
Lynch is a late riser in this draft class, one who wasn't much of a prospect at the beginning of the season but who has changed that in a big way with his performance as a junior, going 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings. The numbers don't look all that great on the surface, but he throws strikes, has seen his velocity bump into the low 90's, throws a pair of decent breaking balls, and can put away hitters with an excellent changeup. He's trending in the right direction, is projectable at 6'4", and could even crack the first round.
4. Kris Bubic (Stanford)
Bubic is another pitchability lefty, showing a stockier build at 6'3" but putting away college hitters with a low 90's fastball and an excellent changeup. As a junior at Stanford, he went 8-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 101/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. He lacks much projection, but he's young for the class and has the command to buy the rest of his game time to catch up. He'll likely go somewhere near the beginning of the second round.
5. Konnor Pilkington (Mississippi State)
Pilkington is an interesting player, one who dominated the SEC as a sophomore (8-5, 3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 111/47 K/BB) and then dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/12 K/BB) without premium stuff or command. The holes in his profile were exposed in 2018, as he finished 2-6 with a 4.63 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 97/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.1 innings. He throws in the low 90's with decent offspeeds, but he doesn't through enough strikes to make them play up in pro ball yet and will need to step it up somehow. Still the past success in the SEC as well as the Cape is enough to get his name into the top couple of rounds, and being young for a college junior, he has a little bit more development time.
Others: Steven Gingery (Texas Tech), Tim Cate (UConn)
1. Ryan Rolison (Ole Miss)
There is no clear top of the draft college lefty, but Ryan Rolison has been doing his best to ensure he's the first one off the board. After a very good freshman season, he has been a bit more inconsistent as a draft-eligible sophomore, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, getting roughed up against some admittedly tough SEC opponents. The 6'2" lefty lacks much physical projection but already throws in the low to mid 90's with arguably the draft's best curveball, one he can spot to either side of the plate and generate plenty of swings and misses with. He also dominated the Cape Cod League with it (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB) and is younger than most draft eligible college players, turning 21 in July. If he can improve his fastball command, he'll be able to deploy his curveball more strategically and could be in impact arm. He'll have to do that though, or else pro hitters will just sit on that curve. He could go anywhere in the first round outside the top ten picks.
2. Shane McClanahan (South Florida)
McClanahan looked like a candidate to go in the top five picks last fall, but an up and down spring has clouded his draft status. Over 14 starts, he went 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 120/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings, proving to be both wild and overwhelming. The 6'1" lefty's best trait is fastball velocity, as he has hit 100 before and can sit in the mid to upper 90's, even as a starter. That alone keeps him in the first round conversation, but the rest of his game needs work. His changeup is excellent at its best but has been inconsistent, and he has never quite developed a reliable breaking ball, something he'll need to do at the pro level to remain a starter. His command is also spotty, which could push him to the bullpen, where he could close. He's a high upside arm that could blossom under pro coaching, but he has a lot to work on for a college pitcher. He could go anywhere from the middle of the first round to the end of it.
3. Daniel Lynch (Virginia)
Lynch is a late riser in this draft class, one who wasn't much of a prospect at the beginning of the season but who has changed that in a big way with his performance as a junior, going 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings. The numbers don't look all that great on the surface, but he throws strikes, has seen his velocity bump into the low 90's, throws a pair of decent breaking balls, and can put away hitters with an excellent changeup. He's trending in the right direction, is projectable at 6'4", and could even crack the first round.
4. Kris Bubic (Stanford)
Bubic is another pitchability lefty, showing a stockier build at 6'3" but putting away college hitters with a low 90's fastball and an excellent changeup. As a junior at Stanford, he went 8-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 101/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 innings. He lacks much projection, but he's young for the class and has the command to buy the rest of his game time to catch up. He'll likely go somewhere near the beginning of the second round.
5. Konnor Pilkington (Mississippi State)
Pilkington is an interesting player, one who dominated the SEC as a sophomore (8-5, 3.08 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 111/47 K/BB) and then dominated the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33/12 K/BB) without premium stuff or command. The holes in his profile were exposed in 2018, as he finished 2-6 with a 4.63 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 97/30 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.1 innings. He throws in the low 90's with decent offspeeds, but he doesn't through enough strikes to make them play up in pro ball yet and will need to step it up somehow. Still the past success in the SEC as well as the Cape is enough to get his name into the top couple of rounds, and being young for a college junior, he has a little bit more development time.
Others: Steven Gingery (Texas Tech), Tim Cate (UConn)
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