2018 Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

First 5 rounds: Ryan Rolison (1-22), Grant Lavigne (CBA-42), Mitchell Kilkenny (2-76), Terrin Vavra (3-96), Ryan Feltner (4-126), Jacob Bird (5-156)
Also notable: Niko Decolati (6-186), Andrew Quezada (7-216), Kyle Datres (12-366), Kumar Rocker (38-1146)

The Rockies always have to take a slightly different approach to drafting, knowing that it's a different game in Coors Field. They have traditionally gone for pitching prospects with velocity or who get lots of ground balls. Curveballs don't break as much at altitude, which is why they would conceivably shy away from them. They leaned heavily on college players by taking just one high schooler, second rounder Grant Lavigne, in their first 33 picks, and leaned slightly more on pitching but not heavily. Overall, they got a lot of talent, though part of me feels like they could have gotten just a bit more.

1-22: LHP Ryan Rolison (my rank: 21)
This pick makes no sense to me. Ryan Rolison is a great arm that is absolutely a first round talent, but he relies on his curveball, something that he definitely won't be able to do at altitude in Colorado. It's just odd to me that the Rockies would go for him with more fastball-oriented college pitchers like Jackson Kowar and Shane McClanahan still on the board. Rolison is a 6'2" righty out of Ole Miss who was draft-eligible as a sophomore this year, going 10-4 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 120/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 innings. He was fairly inconsistent,  especially towards the end of the season, but it's important to remember that he was pitching in the SEC with all those powerhouse teams. His 28% strikeout rate was still very impressive, especially in the SEC, though his 10.5% walk rate was a little high. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, but his best pitch is his curveball, which has big break and can be used in any count in any location. He also throws a changeup that is nothing special but should continue develop. His command is just okay, and he suffers through bouts of wildness, and improving that consistency there will be his key to the majors. He's only 6'2" and seems physically mature, but getting on a pro workout regimen should help him maintain his fastball in the 94-95 range when all is said and done. For most teams, that's a potential #2 starter profile, but because his curveball won't be as effective at altitude, he might become more of a #3 or #4 guy. He did dominate the Cape Cod League last summer (4-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB in 28 IP) and he's younger than most college players drafted this year, having just turned 21 a few days ago. He signed for just over $2.9 million, right at slot, and he allowed one run on one hit and no walks over two innings in his rookie level Pioneer League debut, striking out two.

CBA-42: 1B Grant Lavigne (my rank: 68)
This pick is the opposite of the Rolison pick. My rankings might show this as a bit of a reach, but the Rockies are the perfect team for a power hitting first baseman like Lavigne and he could really thrive in Coors. He's a 6'4" left handed slugger from just outside Manchester, New Hampshire, one with huge power and a great swing that won't need much tweaking. On the flip side, he's kind of a one-tool player, as he provides little value on defense, can't really run, and hadn't proven himself against real pitching. Playing in New Hampshire, he really didn't face much in terms of quality arms, so whether he can make contact against more advanced pitching in pro ball was a question. It's a risk, but that power will play very nicely in Coors Field. He signed for $2 million, which is $296,000 over slot, but I used a lot of past tense in that paragraph because he's ripping the cover off the ball in the minors so far. Through 18 games in the rookie level Pioneer League, which is an aggressive assignment for a high schooler from New Hampshire, he's slashing .391/.475/.623 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio, answering many questions about his contact ability. That performance alone would be enough for me to bump him up 35-40 slots in my rankings if I could do it over.

2-76: RHP Mitchell Kilkenny (my rank: 90)
Kilkenny wrapped up a successful three year career at Texas A&M with a solid junior year where he was 8-5 with a 3.34 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 97 innings, facing a lot of SEC competition. It was his first full season as a starter and he looked like a seasoned veteran. The 6'4" righty is your generic college pitching prospect, showing a low 90's fastball with a good slider and a decent changeup, commanding it all well and showing some projection to boot. He's one of those guys with the ceiling of a #3 starter but a very good chance to make the majors, a low risk pick in the second compensation round. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery after the draft and won't be ready to pitch until at least mid-2019. He signed for $550,000, which is $237,200 below slot.

3-96: SS Terrin Vavra (unranked)
Vavra is a solid hitting shortstop out of the University of Minnesota, putting up his best year as a junior by slashing .386/.455/.614 with ten home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 22/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. He's a guy who does a little bit of everything at the plate with his moderate power, good contact and keen eye. On defense, he probably won't stay at shortstop and has a better chance of becoming a decent second baseman. It all adds up to a nice package, but because his one main tool is in the contact/plate discipline department, his power will have to play up in order for him to start in the majors. Like Kilkenny, he also signed for $550,000, though he was $31,900 under slot. He's off to a great start in the short-season level Northwest League, slashing .406/.472/.563 with a home run, three stolen bases, and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio in eight games.

4-126: RHP Ryan Feltner (unranked)
This is a typical Rockies pick. Feltner has been mediocre as a starter at Ohio State, posting his best season this year but going 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio in 91.2 innings.  He'll be better off in relief, where he'll be able to sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and have his decent slider and good changeup play up. There is incentive to try to keep him as a starter because he can still run his fastball into the mid 90's late in games, but he just hasn't had the results there. His command has been inconsistent, and hopefully as a reliever he'll get more consistent there. His fastball does lack life and he lacks much deception, which has also made his stuff play down. After struggling as a starter on the Cape in 2016 (14.88 ERA, 12/10 K/BB in 16.1 IP), he was much better as a reliever in 2017 (0.00 ERA, 15/7 K/BB in 15.1 IP). He signed for $434,700, right at slot, and tossed two shutout innings on one hit and one walk in his first appearance in the Pioneer League, striking out two.

Others: 5th rounder Jacob Bird was inconsistent over his first three years at UCLA, when he was used mostly in a swing role, but he took off with a great senior year this year. In 16 starts, he went 7-4 with a 2.18 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 61/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.2 innings, showing workhorse ability and great command that helped him get outs even without premium stuff. The 6'3" righty has the chance to push his way to the majors as a #4 or #5 starter. 6th rounder Niko Decolati comes from Loyola Marymount, where he was better as a sophomore (.320/.426/.432, 4 HR, 53/22 K/BB) than as a junior (.271/.367/.444, 6 HR, 60/23 K/BB). He's an enigma as a prospect, showing great power in batting practice but struggling to convert that power to games. He'll have an uphill battle trying to make it play up in pro ball with wood bats, but Coors Field is the best place for him to be able to get to that power and is therefore probably the best team he could have ended up with. With an August birthday, he's also one of the younger college juniors out there. 7th rounder Andrew Quezada was pretty good for Cal State Fullerton this year, going 4-5 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 58/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 83 innings over 14 stats. He has great command, which helps his low 90's fastball, good slider, and good changeup play up, but none are good enough to generate tons of swings and misses. Like Bird, he'll look for a back of the rotation spot, but he could also end up in the bullpen. As a reliever on the Cape last summer, he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 innings. 12th rounder Kyle Datres has been taking care of business as the UNC third baseman for three years now, getting better each year and finishing his junior year with a .345/.438/.511 line, seven home runs, and a 38/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. He is good at a lot of things at the plate but not great at any, showing satisfactory power, contact, and patience. If he adds a little loft to his swing and the power breaks through, he could be a starting second or third baseman in the majors, but because he's a year old for his class (turned 22 in January), he has less time to make those adjustments. A good grab in the 12th round. Lastly, 38th rounder Kumar Rocker didn't sign, as he was a first round talent who fell due to a strong commitment to Vanderbilt. Rocker is a 6'5" righty from high school near Athens, Georgia, and his thick build makes him look a bit more like a football player than a pitcher, drawing comparisons to C.C. Sabathia. He has a power arm that can throw fastballs in the mid 90's, and his slider looks plus at times as well. He can be inconsistent with his control, but it's better than a lot of high school pitchers, and he has ace upside. It may take him some time to adjust to facing SEC competition at Vanderbilt, but he should emerge by his sophomore year as one of the best arms in the conference. He ranked 20th on my list.