Showing posts with label Tony Gonsolin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tony Gonsolin. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

2020 Awards Picks: Rookies, Relievers, and Managers

 Following up my MVP's and Cy Young's, below is how I would vote for the Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year and why. I will not be picking a Manager of the Year because I don't believe I'm qualified given that I haven't been around these men.

AL Rookie of the Year: OF Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: 11 HR, .262/.364/.437, 5 SB, 126 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR in 58 games.
After white-hot starts from Kyle Lewis and Luis Robert, we didn't end up with any true standouts in this race, and there are a lot of players jumbled right at the top for me. Personally, I lean Lewis here, but I would not argue Cristian Javier and you could make a compelling case for Robert, Shaun Murphy, or even James Karinchak. I chose Lewis for a couple of reasons, not the least of which is the size of his body of work. He led all American League rookies with 242 plate appearances and tied for the lead with 58 games played, and looked good doing it. His eleven home runs also tied for the lead and his 1.7 fWAR finished first, on pace for nearly five in a full season. I was particularly impressed by his willingness to take a walk, and his 34 led all AL rookies by a wide margin over second place Yoshi Tsutsugo's 26. Lewis was also a solid defender in the Seattle outfield and stole five bases to boot, truly contributing in every facet for the Mariners.

Runner-up: RHP Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
Stat line: 5-2, 3.48 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 54/18 KBB in 54.1 IP.
I was a big fan of what Cristian Javier pulled off this year as a 23 year old, leading all AL rookies (min. 35 innings) in ERA (3.48) and WHIP (1.00) in a year where the baseballs were flying farther off of bats than they ever have. Javier allowed just 36 hits in 54.1 innings, and with the exception of one rough start against the AL West champion A's, he allowed no more than three runs in eleven of his twelve appearances. He also went at least five innings in seven of his ten starts, which might not sound particularly impressive, but in 2020 managers had very, very short leashes for their young pitchers and Javier managed to extend his. As far as leaderboards go, beyond ERA and WHIP, he was third in strikeouts (54) and fourth in innings (54.1), though he also led in home runs allowed (11).

Honorable mention: C Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics
Stat line: 7 HR, .233/.364/.457, 0 SB, 131 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR in 43 games.
Sean Murphy may have only appeared in 43 games, less than three quarters of the season, but he made a big impact. It's very, very hard nowadays to find good catching, and Murphy's 1.5 fWAR put him fourth among all AL catchers, rookie or not rookie. He blasted seven home runs (a 19 HR pace) and got on base at a .364 clip despite playing at a pitcher-friendly home park, and he held his own with strong defense behind the dish. He caught fire in September and slashed .277/.424/.638 with five home runs over his final 16 games, really helping the A's compensate for the loss of Matt Chapman. Overall though, it goes back to the second sentence of this paragraph: it's very hard to find Good Catching and Sean Murphy was a Good Catcher.

Others: OF Luis Robert (CWS, 1.5 fWAR), SS Willi Castro (DET, 1.3 fWAR), RHP James Karinchak (CLE, 2.67 ERA), LHP Justus Sheffield (SEA, 3.58 ERA), RHP Brady Singer (KC, 4.06 ERA).

NL Rookie of the Year: RHP Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
Stat line: 0.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 12.63 RE24, 53/9 K/BB in 27 IP.
I'm not a big fan of giving awards such as the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year to relievers, but come on, you can't pitch much better than Williams did this year. A 0.33 ERA, just eight hits and nine walks in 27 innings, and a ridiculous 53 strikeouts in 100 plate appearances are just unreal. His 12.63 RE24, which I think is a pretty good stat with which to measure relievers, led all MLB relievers, AL or NL and rookie or not rookie. He allowed three unearned runs against one earned run, but even if you add those three into his RA9, it still sits at a clean 1.33. After a tough second outing of the year in Pittsburgh, he finished it off with 24.2 shutout innings (one unearned run), a 0.53 WHIP, and a 49/7 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 20 appearances. That changeup, man. It's untouchable.

Runner-up: RHP Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 46/7 K/BB in 46.2 IP.
Tony Gonsolin may have only pitched 46.2 innings and won only two games, but I don't think he could have pitched much better than he did when he was on the mound. He allowed just 32 hits, and perhaps more impressively, only seven walks in those 46.2 innings for a ridiculous 0.84 WHIP, and his 2.31 ERA was second among NL rookies (min. 35 innings). In his nine appearances, he allowed zero or one earned runs six times, and he only walked multiple batters in an outing once. He didn't allow a run over his first three starts and saw only eight baserunners in those 14.2 innings, and on September 20th, he struck out ten in a very impressive start at Coors Field. In a year where baseballs were absolutely flying, everything he did becomes all the more impressive.

Honorable mention: 3B Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
Stat line: 4 HR, .338/.400/.481, 1 SB, 138 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 44 games.
Alec Bohm, like Gonsolin, didn't play the whole season, appearing in just under three quarters of his team's games. However, it's hard to argue with a .338/.400/.481 slash line just two years after he was drafted out of Wichita State. Bohm led National League rookies in hits (54) and RBI (23), and when you set the minimum at 100 plate appearances, he led in all three slash categories as well. He wasn't a superstar at third base but he held his own at a tough position, and overall there wasn't a greater sum of offensive production among any NL rookies. Jake Cronenworth may have played ten mores games with a strong season of his own, but he only had twelve more plate appearances and I don't think that's enough to make up for the gap in production.

Others: 2B Jake Cronenworth (SD, 1.4 fWAR), RHP Dustin May (LAD, 2.57 ERA), 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, 1.7 fWAR), LHP Kwang Hyun Kim (STL, 1.62 ERA), RHP Ian Anderson (ATL, 1.95 ERA).

AL Reliever of the Year: RHP Liam Hendriks, Oakland A's
Stat line: 1.78 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 8.17 RE24, 37/3 K/BB in 25.1 IP.
Liam Hendriks was my 2019 AL Reliever of the Year when he put up a 1.80 ERA and a 124/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, and he will repeat again in 2020. When you combine in 2020's 1.78 ERA and 37/3 strikeout to walk ratio this year, he has a 1.79 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 161/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.1 innings since the start of last year. In addition to walking just three batters (one intentionally) this whole season, he also allowed just 14 hits in 25.1 innings, so Hendriks very rarely even had to pitch out of the stretch. Combine Hendriks with Jake Diekman (0.42 ERA, 31/12 K/BB) and JB Wendelken (1.80 ERA, 31/11 K/BB), and you can see why the A's did so well this year. I don't think this 2020 season quite matches what he did in 2019, but from just 2019-2020, Liam Hendriks has been the best relief pitcher in baseball.

Runner-Up: RHP Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins
Stat line: 1.88 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 8.38 RE24, 31/6 K/BB in 24 IP.
Tyler Duffey barely hung on the Twins' roster from 2016-2018, but was very strong with a 2.50 ERA and an 82/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 2019, then took it to another level with a 1.88 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 31/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 24 innings in 2020. Those 24 innings saw him allow just 13 hits and six walks, so just like Hendriks, he was very rarely even in trouble on the mound. There's no single area where Duffey was particularly exceptional, but he was very strong by every measure and the end result was one of the best seasons we saw out of an AL reliever this year.

Others: RHP Codi Heuer (CWS, 1.52 ERA), RHP Nick Anderson (TB, 0.55 ERA), RHP Jesse Hahn (KC, 0.52 ERA).

NL Reliever of the Year: RHP Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
Stat line: 0.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 12.63 RE24, 53/9 K/BB in 27 IP.
See his rookie section. Devin Williams was untouchable. Nobody is even remotely close to him here.

Runner-up: RHP Chris Martin, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 1.00 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 6.72 RE24, 20/3 K/BB in 18 IP.
There really weren't any standouts behind Williams, so with all of 18 innings pitched to his name, Chris Martin was the second best reliever in the National League last year. In those 18 innings, he allowed just eight hits, three walks (one intentional), and one hit batsman for a ridiculous 0.61 WHIP that bested even Williams. He struck out 20 of the 66 batters he faced (30%) and only allowed multiple baserunners in two of his 19 appearances. In the other 17, it was zero or one baserunners for his opponents.

Others: LHP Adam Kolarek (LAD, 0.95 ERA), LHP Drew Pomeranz (SD, 1.45 ERA), RHP Edwin Diaz (NYM, 1.75 ERA).

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Los Angeles Dodgers

Even after graduating guys like Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Alex Verdugo in recent years, this system remains very deep, aided by the successful Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade with Cincinnati that brought Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, both of whom broke out in 2019. Of course, the two headliners of the system are Gavin Lux, who could be an All Star at second base, and Dustin May, a potential ace, both of whom could compete for the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2020. The system is pretty deep and balanced throughout, with the notable exception being the outfield after the graduation of Verdugo, as there are no true impact prospects at this point and the two with the highest ceiling, Andy Pages and Luis Rodriguez, are both very far off.

Affiliates: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers, AA Tulsa Drillers, High A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class A Great Lakes Loons, rookie level Ogden Raptors, complex level AZL and DSL Dodgers

Catcher
- Keibert Ruiz (2020 Age: 21-22): Will Smith put on a show after his May call-up with 15 home runs in 54 games, but the Dodgers have another stud catcher coming up right behind him. In 2019, Keibert Ruiz slashed .261/.331/.347 with six home runs and a 22/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, though a broken finger ended his season in August. Developing young catching is hard, but Ruiz has made it easy by reaching AAA the day after his 21st birthday in 2019 due to just exceptional strike zone judgement as well as good defense behind the plate. He puts the bat on the ball really, really easily, which has enabled him to handle advanced pitching at a young age. The Dodgers continue to hope that some power will come, and he did hit 12 home runs in 101 games in AA in 2018, though that will require a chance in his contact-oriented approach. He's still very young for a catcher that's already knocking on the big league door, so he has time to add impact at the plate, and he'll need to do so if he wants to eventually take the starting role away from Smith.
- Connor Wong (2020 Age: 23-24): The Dodgers drafted Wong in the third round out of the University of Houston in 2017, and he's hit well in pro ball, most recently slashing .281/.336/.541 with 24 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 143/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa in 2019. Wong isn't the most disciplined or the most physical hitter at a skinny 6'1", but his quick uppercut helps him produce plenty of power and get to it consistently. The aggressive approach didn't hurt him in AA, where he actually hit .349/.393/.604 in 40 games then raked in the playoffs, and the Dodgers would like to think this will carry over to the highest level. The defensive situation might get interesting, because Will Smith has the better glove and Ruiz is probably a bit ahead of him in that regard as well, but Wong won't be forced to first base because he can actually handle second or third base. Since Smith and Ruiz probably have the catching position locked up for the long term, so Wong could be an interesting super-utility type who starts all over the field, including behind the plate.
- Diego Cartaya (2020 Age: 18): The Dodgers gave Cartaya $2.5 million to sign out of Venzuela in 2018, and he made a strong impression in his first pro season in 2019 by slashing .281/.343/.432 with four home runs and a 42/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games between the complex level affiliates in the Dominican Summer League and the Arizona League. He has a simple, clean right handed swing that's hit over power for now, but he creates enough leverage that he should be able to grow into some power, perhaps above average power. Defensively, he's very advanced and only figures to get better, and he will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old so he has plenty of time to develop further.
- Keep an eye on: Hunter Feduccia, Marco Hernandez

Corner Infield
- Edwin Rios (2020 Age: 26): Rios has worked his way up slowly since being a sixth round pick out of Florida International University in 2015, repeating AAA in 2019 and slashing .270/.340/.575 with 31 home runs and a 153/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games there, also hitting a strong .277/.393/.617 with four home runs and a 21/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 major league games. Rios strikes out a lot, but he uses his 6'3" frame effectively to get great extension on the ball and drive it out to all fields. Combining his fringy hit tool with his fringy defense means that he probably won't ever be a full time starter in Los Angeles, plus Justin Turner and Max Muncy already have the infield corners locked down, but his power could make him a nice role player or platoon bat in the near future.
- Miguel Vargas (2020 Age: 20): After the Dodgers signed Vargas for $300,000 out of Cuba in 2017, he made a strong first impression by slashing .330/.404/.465 in his first pro season in 2018, then took another step forward in 2019 by slashing .308/.380/.440 with seven home runs, 13 stolen bases, and an 83/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Great Lakes and High A Rancho Cucamonga. Lean and strong at 6'3", he's an extremely competent hitter who stands out most for his ability to find the barrel with ease against advanced pitching at a very young age. Vargas hits for mostly extra base power for now, and he did hit 38 doubles in 2019, though he could grow into some power as he begins to get those extra base hits over the fence. He doesn't need to in order to be a valuable hitter, though, as he should be able to post high on-base percentages to go along with those extra base hits at the major league level. He's still a work in progress defensively and may have to move to first base, which would put pressure on him adding power, but he'll play all of 2020 at just 20 years old and has a lot of time to figure out who he is as a player.
- Kody Hoese (2020 Age: 22-23): Hoese put up a massive breakout season at Tulane in 2019, then rode that to a late first round selection to the Dodgers, where he slashed .299/.380/.483 with five home runs and a 25/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Great Lakes. He uses a simple right handed swing and the natural leverage in his 6'4" frame to hit for potentially plus raw power, and his plate discipline is advanced enough that he should be a fairly safe bet despite his lack of a track record. If his massive 2019 wasn't a mirage, he could hit 25-30 home runs annually at the major league level while posting solid on-base percentages. While his .264/.330/.385 line at Class A was pretty decent for a hitter in his pro debut, he still does have to prove that his power will play up against advanced pitching. He's a decent defender at third base but should stick there.
- Michael Busch (2020 Age: 22): The Dodgers picked Busch out of UNC just six picks after Hoese in 2019, though he slashed just .125/.371/.125 with a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the Arizona League and Class A Great Lakes before a broken hand ended his season. Busch is an interesting hitter – he has good power, and he's proven he can get to it consistently against advanced competition in the ACC and in the Cape Cod League. Meanwhile, he does have some swing and miss in his game, but he has such a great feel for the strike zone that he can mitigate most of it by not chasing bad pitches. He's a pretty safe bet to be a solid contributor with both power and on-base percentages, but the bigger questions surround his defense. He played first base and left field in college, both pretty mediocrely, and the Dodgers have tried him out so far as a second baseman. He's not fast nor does he have a strong arm, so the Dodgers are just going to have to figure out where he's the least bit of a liability.
- Brandon Lewis (2020 Age: 21): Lewis, a fourth rounder out of UC-Irvine, gives the Dodgers a third 2019 draftee that figures prominently into their future infield scheme. A graduate of Bishop Alemany High School in Mission Hills, he also gives them another hometown kid to root for behind Lakewood's Justin Turner. Lewis is on an upward trajectory if one ever existed, as he was barely recruited out of high school, attended Pierce College for a couple of years, then broke out for the Anteaters in 2019. In his pro debut, he slashed .297/.365/.534 with 13 home runs and a 58/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games between the Arizona League, rookie level Ogden, and Class A Great Lakes, showing both the tremendous raw power that got him drafted and the swing and miss issues that mean he'll be a bit of a project. The fact that he was able to get to his power consistently in the Pioneer League was a nice sign, as were the two home runs he hit against moderately advanced pitching in the Midwest League playoffs. He has a high ceiling as a power hitting third baseman, but there's also a chance he has to move to first base and that will put more pressure on his ability to make contact. As someone who will play all of 2020 at 21 years old, he's young for a college draftee, so he'll have a bit of extra time to develop.
- Keep an eye on: Cristian Santana, Dillon Paulson, Justin Yurchak

Middle Infield
- Gavin Lux (2020 Age: 22): There's no way around it that Lux is one of the best prospects in baseball and already a leading candidate to give the Dodgers a third NL Rookie of the Year in five years. A late first round pick out of a Kenosha, Wisconsin high school in 2016, he took a little bit to find his footing but broke out by slashing .324/.399/.514 in 2018 after he reworked his approach. He was even better in 2019, slashing .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 102/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, then he hit .240/.305/.400 with a pair of home runs and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 major league games. Lux is pretty much the complete package as a player, showing above average power with exceptional feel for the barrel and the strike zone that enables that power to play up consistently and helps him post high on-base percentages. He's solid average at second base if a bit above, and he has enough speed to be a threat on the base paths. The Dodgers are committed to Lux as their starting second baseman in 2020 and beyond, and he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases to boot – an All Star profile.
- Jeter Downs (2020 Age: 21-22): Downs was a Reds competitive balance pick out of a Miami-area high school in 2017, then was shipped to the Dodgers in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal, which is now looking like a coup for the Dodgers. In his first season in the Dodgers' system, he had a breakout season offensively, slashing .276/.362/.526 with 24 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 107/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, also adding 35 doubles and four triples. Downs just knows how to play the game, with advanced feel for the barrel and the strike zone for his age and the athleticism to make his average raw power play up in games. He's also a smart baserunner that can make his average speed play up on the bases, and he's parlayed that into 61 stolen bases over the last two seasons. Overall, the package is actually somewhat similar to a base-model Gavin Lux, just take half a grade off each tool and flip him to the other batters' box.
- Omar Estevez (2020 Age: 22): Estevez is a Cuban defector who received $6 million to sign with the Dodgers in 2015, and they quickly assigned him to Class A shortly after his 18th birthday. He hasn't moved as quickly as originally hoped, but he still reached the upper minors at just 21 years old in 2019 and slashed .292/.353/.429 with six home runs and a 78/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Tulsa and some complex level rehab work. He has advanced feel for the barrel that helped him finish second in the minors with 43 doubles in 2018, and his powerful swing helps him produce at least a little bit of power from a smaller 5'10" frame. He's most likely to end up a high on-base guy who gets a lot of extra base hits, though the glove is kind of fringy and he fits best at second base. Overall, that's probably a utility projection.
- Jacob Amaya (2020 Age: 21): Right behind Estevez is Jacob Amaya, another local kid who attended South Hills High School in West Covina before being drafted in the eleventh round in 2017. In 2019, Amaya slashed .260/.369/.391 with seven home runs and a 98/81 strikeout to walk ratio, standing out more for his feel for the game than any individual tools. Amaya makes consistent contact with his quick right handed swing, though he tends to swing over the ball and put it on the ground a lot. He's not the biggest guy at six feet tall, but he does have the leverage in his quick barrel to eventually get close to average power. Perhaps his best offensive tool is his patience, as he is more than willing to work counts and draw walks without getting into trouble with strikeouts, which boosts his on-base percentages considerably. He's also not the flashiest defender, but he gets the job done and could fit at shortstop in more of a utility role rather than a full time one. If he can add a little pop, there is the chance he could end up a starting second baseman down the line, though the presence of Gavin Lux and Jeter Downs complicate that a bit.
- Keep an eye on: Drew Jackson, Devin Mann, Eddys Leonard, Alex De Jesus

Outfield
- DJ Peters (2020 Age: 24): Chalk up another LA native for the Dodgers, as Peters is a graduate of Glendora High School who ended up at a Nevada community college for school, then earned a fourth round selection in the 2016 draft. He's hit his way up through the system and reached the top in 2019, slashing .249/.358/.453 with 23 home runs and a 168/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City. He's got considerable power, but there's a bit too much swing and miss for it to fully play up in the majors, and with the Dodgers' deep outfield situation, he most likely profiles as a power hitting fourth outfielder or platoon bat. Of course, with the way Dodgers prospects just always seem to play better at the major league level, there's always the chance that the 6'6" slugger taps into some of that magic and hits 25+ home runs in the majors, but he will have to cut down on the swing and miss that's caused him to strike out 559 times over the last three seasons.
- Zach Reks (2020 Age: 26): It's been a long road for Reks, who originally enrolled at the Air Force Academy in 2012, lasted one season, then transferred to Kentucky as a student, not a baseball player. He eventually walked onto the team and hit well enough over a couple of years to be drafted in the tenth round in 2017, by which time he was a fifth year senior and already 23 years old, then just kept on hitting once he hit pro ball. Mostly a contact hitter at first, he busted out the power stroke and slashed .291/.385/.536 with 28 home runs and a 131/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, and now he's knocking on the door to the big leagues. Reks generates a lot of raw power from a big left handed swing, but he controls it well enough to keep his strikeout rate from ballooning too high, and he also draws enough walks to balance it out. The Dodgers are so deep in the outfield that I honestly have no idea how in the world he'll hit his way onto the team, but in another organization, he could get a crack this year at being a fourth outfielder/platoon bat who can crush right handed pitching.
- Andy Pages (2020 Age: 19): Pages signed for $300,000 out of Cuba in 2018, then burst onto the scene in 2019 by slashing .298/.398/.651 with 19 home runs and a 79/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at rookie level Ogden at just 18 years old. Pages was more noted for his contact ability and feel for the barrel when he signed, but that's quickly manifested itself into real power (he also hit 22 doubles) real quickly as he's added significant loft to his swing already. There was some swing and miss, but he was also an 18 year old playing up in the Pioneer League, and the fact that he could get to his power enough for 43 extra base hits in 63 games is enough to know that the hit tool will play up, at least for now. He's a real sleeper to be an impact hitter and his full season debut in 2020 should be watched closely.
- Luis Rodriguez (2020 Age: 17): Rodriguez signed for nearly $2.7 million out of Venezuela in 2019, so he has yet to play in affiliated ball, but the Dodgers are certainly excited about his upside. He's a 6'2" right handed hitter that is already very advanced for his age, with the ability to work  counts and find the barrel consistently. He has a lot of room to grow into his frame and potentially add power, and he's already shown the ability to put significant leverage on the ball. A solid defender in the outfield, he probably profiles best in right field, but it's also far too soon to make any concrete projections, either about the bat or the glove. For now, he should just be watched to see what he develops into.
- Keep an eye on: Connor Joe, Carlos Rincon, Jeren KendallStarling Heredia

Starting Pitching
- Dustin May (2020 Age: 22): If anyone on this team has a shot at challenging Gavin Lux for the NL Rookie of the Year Award, it's Dustin May. May was drafted out of a Fort Worth-area high school the same year as Lux, in the third round in 2016, and he's gotten better every year, with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 110/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City in 2019, as well as a 3.63 ERA and a 32/5 strikeout to  walk ratio over 34.2 major league innings. He's hard to miss on the field – an absolute string bean at 6'6", his bright red, shoulder-length hair makes him one of the most recognizable prospects in the game. May's fastball now sits firmly in the mid 90's with a ton of late life, and he adds a whole group of unique secondary offerings. His hard downer curve is tough to square up, while his hard cutter can touch 92 and his changeup has taken a big step forward lately. Perhaps most importantly, he can command it all pretty well, which points to a long career as at least a #3 starter with a good chance for more.
- Tony Gonsolin (2020 Age: 25-26): Gonsolin, a native of Vacaville, California between Sacramento and the Bay Area, was a ninth round senior sign out of St. Mary's College in 2016 and has transformed as a pitcher in his brief time in the system. In 2019, he posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 50/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings at AAA Oklahoma City, but he was actually better in the majors with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 37/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings for the Dodgers. He's added a solid five miles per hour to his fastball in pro ball, now sitting in the mid 90's, but his best pitch is his splitter, a true plus pitch that just falls off the table at the last second while looking like a fastball the whole way. He also adds a very good downer curveball and mixes in a slider, giving hitters a wide variety of pitches they need to be ready for. With solid command, he should be a #3 or a #4 starter if he can break into the Dodgers' deep rotation in 2020.
- Josiah Gray (2020 Age: 22): Gray alone is going to make the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade look like a steal, and together with Jeter Downs, it's looking like a coup. When the Dodgers acquired Gray from the Reds, he was a recent competitive balance pick out of Division II Le Moyne College in New York who had only recently switched from shortstop to pitcher, albeit having made a strong impression in his pro debut (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB in rookie ball). In his first season in the Dodgers organization, he took off, posting a 2.28 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 147/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 innings at Class A Great Lakes, High A Rancho Cucamonga, and AA Tulsa. He now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, led by a slider that's flashing plus more often than not, a new curveball, and a quickly improving changeup. He has also been filling up the zone as he's gotten better and better about hitting his spots, and he looks nothing like the light hitting Division II shortstop he was just a couple years ago. With his upward trajectory, he has the ceiling of a #2 starter and a really good shot at becoming at least a mid-rotation guy.
- Mitchell White (2020 Age: 25): White, a San Jose native, was a second round pick out of Santa Clara in 2016, and he's reached the top of the minors but finds himself a bit behind some of the other prospects looking to crack the Dodgers rotation in 2020. In 2019, he posted a 5.09 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, pitching really well at the lower level but struggling a bit with a promotion to the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. White is very close to major league ready with a low to mid 90's fastball, a pair of very good breaking balls, and a decent changeup, though he needs to get more consistent overall, especially with his average command. In most systems, he'd probably be good enough as is to compete for a rotation spot out of spring training, but May, Gonsolin, and Gray are likely ahead of him on the depth chart as more complete pitchers. I wouldn't count him out as a starter just yet though because the talent is clearly there.
- Edwin Uceta (2020 Age: 22): Uceta signed for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, but a strong 2018 put him on the map and he kept up the good work in 2019, posting a 2.77 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 141/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa. Uceta doesn't stand out for any particular pitch or skill, instead doing the little things right across the board to work his way up in a deep system. He's got a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and a changeup with nice fade, which he commands just well enough to make it all play up. He's a smaller guy at a listed six feet tall and 155 pounds, but he has topped 120 innings in back to back seasons, so he's proven durable to this point. He could be a #4 starter, or in the bullpen he could play off his fastball/changeup combination.
- Leo Crawford (2020 Age: 23): Nicaragua is mostly a soccer country, though there have been a few players to make the majors, most notably 1991 perfect game-thrower Dennis Martinez, and Leo Crawford is looking to add another to the short list. There isn't a ton of public information on Crawford, as he's only recently put himself on the map with a strong 2019 in which he posted a 2.81 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 134/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa. He's a crafty lefty with a lot of moving parts in his delivery, but he has good body control that enables him to throw plenty of strikes and hit his spots. I couldn't find much information, but it looks like he throws a fastball, slider, and a changeup, the latter of which has nice drop and can be an out pitch. That changeup, combined with his command and his ability to change his delivery and keep hitters off balance, has worked very well for him even up through AA, so he'll be an intriguing dark horse candidate to crack the rotation in 2020 or 2021.
- Michael Grove (2020 Age: 23): Grove was an out-of-nowhere pick in the second round out of West Virginia in 2018, as he was sitting out the year with Tommy John surgery and wasn't really on anybody's board. He finally got back on the mound in 2019 and posted a 6.10 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 73/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings in an aggressive assignment to High A Rancho Cucamonga. The ERA is a bit ugly and he didn't throw a whole lot of innings, but otherwise, I'd actually consider this season a success. He controlled the zone well with a 73/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and he did so in High A despite not having pitched since 2017 in the Big 12. Grove also looked better as the year went on, regaining his feel for pitching, and the Dodgers will be ready to turn him loose in 2020. Grove gets by with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very good slider, and refining his changeup is probably the last step for him to reach his ceiling as a #3 or #4 starter.
- Ryan Pepiot (2020 Age: 22): Pepiot slipped a little on draft boards with an inconsistent junior year at Butler in 2019, but the Dodgers eventually grabbed him in the third round and watched him post a 1.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League and at Class A Great Lakes. Pepiot stands out for his low 90's fastball and his excellent fading changeup, though he got in trouble at times when a) his two decent breaking balls began to run together or b) his command wavered. The combination of not having a true swing and miss breaking ball and spotty command might eventually push him to the bullpen, but the Dodgers will try to clean him up and get him more consistent overall, hoping that the presence of four pitches can keep him in the rotation and push him towards a ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter. The strong pro debut is at least a good sign.
- Jimmy Lewis (2020 Age: 19): The Dodgers picked Lewis up in the second compensation round in 2019, making him the second pick out of his own Austin-area high school after Mets first rounder Brett Baty. He's a projectable 6'6" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a curveball that looks really good at times, though it can soften up at times. He also throws a changeup that is fairly advanced for a high schooler, and he has the fairly advanced strike throwing ability to match. Overall, it's a nice combination of current ability and projection for a high school arm, with all the building blocks necessary to put together an impact starter and some of them already together.
- Keep an eye on: Gerardo Carrillo, Andre Jackson, John Rooney, Robinson OrtizJack Little

Relief Pitching
- Dennis Santana (2020 Age: 24): With five highly regarded pitching prospects knocking on the door to the big league rotation, Santana and Mitchell White are probably in the second tier, and Santana's most likely path forward is probably the bullpen. In 2019, he had a 6.94 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 105/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.1 innings at AAA Oklahoma City, and he also has a 9.35 ERA and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 career major league innings. He's always had the stuff, most notably a mid 90's fastball with sink and a good diving slider, also adding a decent changeup that can get too firm, but the command has been an issue throughout his career. There is some jerk in his delivery that can pull him off alignment, and now set to turn 24 at the start of the season, I'm not sure how much better it's going to get. That's why he's probably a reliever with all this pitching depth, where his fastball could hit the upper 90's and his slider could hopefully get a bit more consistent.
- Marshall Kasowski (2020 Age: 25): Kasowski, unlike Santana, is a true-relief prospect, one who posted a 2.27 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 51/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings between AA Tulsa and complex level rehab work despite missing some time with injuries mid season. He was a 13th round pick out of West Texas A&M in 2017, two years after surviving a car accident that nearly killed him, but since hitting pro ball he's struck out 37.1% of his opponents – 177 in just 107.2 innings. He's gotten most of those with just one pitch, a mid 90's fastball that comes from a higher than high overhand slot and is extremely difficult to pick up. He's got a curve to give hitters a different look, but really it's just the fastball. With mediocre command, he's probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning guy, but improving his command a little bit could help him move towards an eighth or ninth inning job.
- Aaron Ochsenbein (2020 Age: 24): Ochsenbein signed as a fifth year senior after being drafted in the sixth round out of Eastern Kentucky in 2019, so he'll already turn 24 in spring training (well technically, he's only turning five because he was born on February 29th, leap year day). He was an unremarkable prospect until he turned 23, when he broke out for a monster redshirt senior season and carried it over into pro ball, where he had a 1.44 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 35/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings between the complex level Arizona League, rookie level Ogden, and Class A Great Lakes. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent splitter that misses bats in bunches, in addition to an average slider, that will help him move quickly through the minors. With a little bit of deception in his delivery and good solid command, he's a good middle relief prospect to track.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Salow, Jordan Sheffield, Brett de Geus, Melvin JimenezMitchell Tyranksi

Saturday, February 2, 2019

Reviewing the Los Angeles Dodgers Farm System

The Dodgers feature a lot of high upside talent, but unlike a lot of other upside-oriented systems such as that of the Rangers or Indians, there is both a lot of depth here and more refinement in the high-upside players. The Dodgers do a terrific job of player development, which is obvious to us after they produced 2016 NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger, and 2018 3rd place NL ROY finisher Walker Buehler in consecutive seasons. Even with that string of graduations and some trades that have sent away Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, and James Marinan, among others, that player development system has enabled the team to continue keeping up a high level farm. Interestingly, this team also has a high number of catchers coming through the system with four guys that I'd like to note in this writeup – the most of any team so far.

Affiliates: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers, AA Tulsa Drillers, High A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class A Great Lakes Loons, rookie level Ogden Raptors, and complex level AZL and DSL Dodgers

High Minors Hitters: OF Alex Verdugo, C Will Smith, 1B Edwin Rios, C Keibert Ruiz, SS Gavin Lux, OF DJ Peters, and SS Errol Robinson
There is a lot of talent very close to the major leagues for the Dodgers, and with an incredibly deep big league roster as it its, a lot of these guys are expendable in a potential J.T. Realmuto or otherwise big trade. If they were actually able to find him playing time, I would call 22 year old Alex Verdugo the next in line in the Seager-Bellinger-Buehler parade, but with an already-crowded outfield, he's probably best off somewhere else right now because he's absolutely ready. In 2018, the Tucson native slashed .329/.391/.472 with ten home runs and a 47/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AAA Oklahoma City (plus .260/.329/.377 over 37 major league games), his second straight season with an OPS above .800 and a strikeout rate below 13% at AAA. He has exceptional contact ability that enables him to put even the fastest fastballs and best breaking balls in play, and that makes his moderate power play up. He'll never be a 25-30 homer bat in the majors, but he'll post on-base percentages well north of .350 while his cannon arm will enable him to play good defense in right field. He's ready now, and somebody just needs to find him some playing time. Please. 23 year old Will Smith (not to be confused with Giants reliever Will Smith or with rapper/actor Will Smith) slashed .264/.358/.532 at AA Tulsa before slumping to just .138/.206/.218 at Oklahoma City in 2018, totaling 20 home runs and a 112/43 strikeout to walk ratio and a composite .233/.322/.455 line over 98 games between the two levels. He's not your typical catcher because he has some speed (he has 15 stolen bases in 18 career attempts in the minors) and can actually play the infield if you ask him, but the Dodgers are perfectly content keeping him behind the plate, where he is above average defensively. While the bat was considered a little light early in his career, his big run through the AA Texas League this year has boosted his stock and bumped him from likely back-up to possible starter. The slump in AAA was enough to temper expectations a little bit, but if the Dodgers don't acquire Realmuto or another catcher before the season, Smith absolutely has a shot to take over as the starting catcher at some point in 2019 if he makes the necessary adjustments. Don't expect high batting averages, but he should be able to produce just enough. 24 year old Edwin Rios has hit and hit everywhere he has been in the minors, including a .304/.355/.482 slash line with ten home runs and a 110/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at Oklahoma City this year. The power was a bit down after he blasted 27 and 24 home runs in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and so far he has proven that his aggressive approach does not stop him from producing against high level pitching. He'll have to continue producing because he is limited to first base defensively, and while he's more likely a platoon bat than a future starter, he might get a chance to do some damage at the major league level if traded to another, shallower team. If his plate discipline holds up just enough, he should be able to slug 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages. Moving down a level, 20 year old Keibert Ruiz gives the Dodgers another high level catching prospect, and his ceiling is even higher than Smith's. In 2018, Ruiz slashed .268/.328/.401 with 12 home runs and a 33/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Tulsa, primarily showing excellent plate discipline for a kid who just turned 20 mid-season. He makes steady contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, and while he's not Will Smith behind it, he's good enough defensively that the Dodgers won't have to worry about moving him to a different position. How the Dodgers handle getting both Ruiz and Smith playing time in 2019 will be interesting, whether that means aggressively promoting one to the majors, holding one back in AA where they don't belong, or giving Smith more reps in the infield so Ruiz can get more starts behind the plate in AAA. Of course, one could find themselves traded and then this wouldn't be an issue. Ultimately, Ruiz projects as a starting catcher who can post high on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, and at his best he could be an All Star. 21 year old Gavin Lux had a breakout year in 2018 and has pushed himself near the top of the Dodgers' prospect rankings, having slashed .324/.399/.514 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and an 88/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. He's the complete package as a player, showing power, on-base ability, plate discipline, some speed, and the ability to stick in the infield defensively, all as a kid who just turned 21 in November. While he may be forced to move to second base from shortstop (Corey Seager's presence doesn't help Lux's chances there anyways), he has the bat to profile there and has All Star upside. 23 year old DJ Peters slashed .236/.320/.473 with 29 home runs and a 192/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games with Tulsa, showing tremendous power from a 6'6" frame and pushing his career minor league home run total to 69 over 330 games. He strikes out a ton and will need to seriously cut down on his swing and miss tendency, but he has the kind of power than will play and play well in the majors if he can get to it enough. His cannon arm offsets his so-so range in the outfield, and it will be interesting to see whether Peters can improve his approach enough to make an impact with the Dodgers. Lastly, 24 year old Errol Robinson, an Ole Miss product with a great name, slashed .247/.309/.353 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games with Tulsa, looking like a solid utility infield prospect at this point. The bat is a little bit too light to envision him starting, but he is competent enough at the plate and plays good enough defense all over the infield to stick on major league benches for a while.

High Minors Pitchers: RHP Dennis Santana, RHP Josh Sborz, RHP Dustin May, RHP Tony Gonsolin, RHP Mitchell White, RHP Yadier Alvarez, and RHP Marshall Kasowski
The Dodgers bring a ton of pitching to the table, especially in the high minors, where their army of right handers includes high ceiling arms, pitchability guys, and relievers. 22 year old Dennis Santana is a converted shortstop who posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 65/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, also reaching the major leagues for one rough start at Coors Field. A shoulder injury cut his season short in June, but his mid 90's fastball and good slider combined with improving command give him enough in his arsenal to succeed in the majors today, and assuming health, his floor at this point is as an effective big league reliever. If he can return healthy in 2019 and improve his changeup, he has a real shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter. 25 year old Josh Sborz, who played high school baseball one town away from me in Virginia at the same time I was playing junior varsity, is just about major league ready after posting a 3.88 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 71/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings at Tulsa and Oklahoma City. He's purely a relief prospect but brings a mid 90's fastball and a good slider to the table while also adding a changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he won't just leave meatballs over the plate against major league hitters. He should be up and contributing in 2019. Now, 21 year old Dustin May is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, finishing up a 2018 where he posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. The 6'6" Texan has the best combination of stuff and command in the system, bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that induces plenty of ground balls, a hard cutter that gives hitters a slightly different look, a big curveball, and a changeup. However, unlike most young, lanky fireballers with deep arsenals, he can actually command everything pretty well, and that enabled him to succeed with a 3.67 ERA and a 28/12 strikeout to walk ratio as a 20 year old in AA this past August. He'll need some more upper minors seasoning in 2019, but if everything breaks right, he has top of the rotation potential and will likely settle in as a mid-rotation starter even if everything doesn't break perfectly in his favor. Other pitching prospects such as Houston's Forrest Whitley, Philadelphia's Sixto Sanchez, and Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller may be more proven and more exciting, but May is in that second tier of pitching prospects just under the cream of the crop. 24 year old Tony Gonsolin dominated the minors statistically with a 10-2 record a, 2.60 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 155/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa in 2018. The 6'2" Californian throws in the mid 90's and adds a full repertoire highlighted by a nasty splitter but also including a slider and a changeup, and while he lacks pinpoint command, it's tough to keep all of those pitches straight and he does. Look for Gonsolin to develop into a potential #4 starter. 24 year old Mitchell White, another California product (San Jose), followed up a breakout 2017 with a so-so 2018, posting a 4.53 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an 88/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings at Tulsa, bringing a devastating mid 90's fastball/hard slider combination as well as a good curveball. He doesn't miss nearly as many bats as he should because his command isn't great and he tends to leave balls over the plate and get hit, so improving that command could shoot him up prospect rankings and make him a potential mid-rotation starter. However, if he doesn't (he is 24, for what it's worth), the stuff will play very well in the bullpen and he could become a high leverage reliever. 22 year old Yadier Alvarez is a very interesting prospect who posted a 4.23 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 62/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings between Tulsa and complex level rehab, showing premium stuff with no idea where it's going. The former bonus baby who signed out of Cuba for $16 million as a 19 year old in 2015 sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 101 in short stints, adding a great slider to miss bats. However, he has struggled with command and a groin strain in 2018 certainly didn't help, and if he can't figure out how to at least guide the ball to one part of the strike zone or another (or learn how to throw a changeup), he is probably best suited in relief. There, his control problems will be masked by the fact that he'll flirt with 100 MPH and sharpen his slider even further, but his upside is so high as a starter that the Dodgers will do everything they can to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 23 year old Marshall Kasowski had a great season in 2018 by posting a 2.09 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 111/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Class A Great Lakes, Rancho Cucamonga, and Tulsa, just with his sheer mid 90's velocity and high release point. His secondary stuff needs work and he's a relief-only prospect at this point, but it's hard to argue with a 42.5% strikeout rate across three levels. If the high strikeout rate isn't enough to get you interested, he survived a near-fatal car accident while in college at the University of Houston and worked his way back after transferring to West Texas A&M outside of Amarillo.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Jeren Kendall, C Connor Wong, 2B Jeter Downs, OF Starling Heredia, and C Diego Cartaya
The Dodgers aren't as deep in the low minors as they are in the upper levels when it comes to hitters, with most of the guys down there looking more like wild cards than bona fide prospects, though this group could produce some real value when it's all said and done. 22 year old Jeren Kendall had a disappointing season where he slashed .215/.300/.356 with 12 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 158/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga, which is already a hitter-friendly context. His strengths, namely speed and outfield defense, are very apparent, as is his main weaknesses, contact. He strikes out so much (32% in 2018) that he struggles to get to what could be above average raw power in time, though fortunately his decently high walk rate (10.5%) is enough to keep him afloat for now. Kendall's defense and draft stock (first rounder, 23rd overall out of Vanderbilt in 2017) will buy his bat plenty of time, but if he doesn't start making contact soon, he'll be a first round bust. 22 year old Connor Wong, taken two rounds after Kendall in the 2017 draft out of Houston (third round, 100th overall), has gotten off to the hotter start and slashed .269/.350/.480 with 19 home runs, six stolen bases, and a 138/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at Rancho Cucamonga. Wong, like Will Smith (referenced in upper minors hitters section), is an athletic catcher who could also play the infield in a pinch, though his behind-the-plate defense is a bit behind Smith's. Wong has an average bat that produces average power and could use a little work when it comes to plate discipline, but for a catcher, that will play. He more likely has a back-up catcher or even super utility future, though improvement in the plate discipline department could improve his chances of starting one day. 20 year old Jeter Downs, acquired from the Reds in the crazy Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade, is probably the best prospect in this section after slashing .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A. He was also a member of that 2017 draft (competitive balance round, 32nd overall out of a Miami area high school) and while none of his tools stand out, he also doesn't really have any weaknesses. He shows average power and average contact ability but adds to his offensive profile with good plate discipline, and he makes up for his average infield defense with a grinder attitude, so while second base looks like his most likely long-term home, he'll make it as difficult as he can for the Dodgers to keep him off shortstop. His upside is that of a starting second baseman, though I find it unlikely that he'll end up a true impact bat. 19 year old Starling Heredia was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $2.6 million in 2015 but aside from glimpses in the rookie level Pioneer League in 2017, he hasn't lived up to his billing. In 2018, he slashed .192/.260/.332 with seven home runs and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, mostly at Class A Great Lakes, struggling to get to his big raw power much at all. He was young for the Midwest League but not crazy young, and he'll need more time their in 2019 to hone his approach. His upside remains very high, though the risk is just as high and he has a lot of work to do to reach that ceiling. Lastly, 17 year old Diego Cartaya is yet to step on a minor league field, but the Venezuelan catcher signed for $2.5 million and gives the Dodgers yet another potential starting catcher down on the farm. He's unremarkable but competent as a hitter, and when you're a plus defensive catcher like he is, competence is all you need at the plate. That good defense will give the bat plenty of time to develop, and as a kid who will spend the whole 2019 season at 17 years old, anything could happen with the bat.

Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Edwin Uceta, RHP Gerardo Carrillo, RHP Josiah Gray, LHP John Rooney, and RHP Braydon Fisher
As with the hitters, the Dodgers have more exciting talent up near the majors ,but there is more upside in the low minors in terms of pitching than there is in terms of hitting. 21 year old Edwin Uceta finds himself right in the middle of the minor league rung, having posted a 3.89 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings at Class A Great Lakes and High A Rancho Cucamonga, though he showed much better at the lower level (3.25 ERA, 103/27 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.97 ERA, 28/12 K/BB). Uceta is six feet tall and listed at just 155 pounds, but the small right hander brings pretty good control of pretty good stuff to the table with a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and an advanced changeup. That combination of stuff and command proved to be too much for Class A hitters, and while High A hitters had an easier time putting it in play, just a little sharpening of that command should help him pass the level. While his small frame could lead to durability issues, he tossed 120.1 regular season innings in 2018 and added 5.2 shutout innings in his lone postseason start in High A (which would have brought his ERA down from 6.97 to 5.47). How he handles another full season, as well as tougher competition, in 2019 will be very telling as to where the 21 year old's future lies, with his current ceiling looking like a #3 or #4 starter. 20 year old Gerardo Carrillo is another little righty coming in at the same height and weight as Uceta, and he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 50/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings at Great Lakes and complex ball. His stuff is actually better than Uceta's, with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a good changeup, though both Uceta's command and durability are a bit more proven than Carrillo's at this point. His future is even tougher to predict than Uceta's, but his upside is arguably higher and a very possible breakout season in 2019 could push him way up the Dodgers' prospect rankings, assuming health. 21 year old Josiah Gray, over from the Reds with Jeter Downs in the Yasiel Puig trade, posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball after being drafted in the competitive balance round (72nd overall) out of Le Moyne in 2018. He's actually very new to pitching after converting from shortstop in college, and his fresh arm produces low to mid 90's fastballs that pair nicely with a good slider. He's still learning the finer aspects of pitching, such as a changeup and good command, though his control is already coming along nicely and he was very young for a college junior anyways. There is still reliever risk if he can't develop that changeup, but Gray, like Carrillo, has breakout potential for 2019 if his command develops as hoped. 22 year old John Rooney was also a product of the 2018 draft (third round, 104th overall out of Hofstra), earning his draft status with a monster junior season (8-2, 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 108/27 K/BB in 95 IP). He followed that up with a 1.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 21/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings between complex ball and Great Lakes, adding 2.2 shutout innings in the Midwest League playoffs. Rooney is a 6'5" lefty and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but his good slider and command, as well as his height, help both play up. He looks like a prototypical back-end starter at this point and could move fairly quickly in that capacity if his command holds up and he stays healthy. Lastly, the Dodgers took now-18 year old Braydon Fisher with their next pick in the 2018 draft, scooping him up out of a Houston area high school in the fourth round before he posted a 2.05 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings in complex ball. Fisher, who was young for his class with a July birthday, brings great pure stuff with a low 90's fastball and a good slider, and at 6'4" with a quick arm, he has plenty of projection. I really liked this pick on draft day and I think Fisher has the stuff and upside to profile as at least a mid-rotation starter if not a #2 guy at best. He has a lot of work to do in refining his delivery and getting more consistent with his control, but I really like the upside. He'll still be a teenager through mid-season 2020, so while he may not break out immediately, he's a name to track.