2020 Awards Picks: MVP's and Cy Young's

If I were given a vote, below would be my picks for the AL and NL MVP and Cy Young Awards.

AL MVP: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
I think most people would prefer to choose a hitter as an MVP, but in a year in which not one American League hitter put up a 1.000 OPS while staying healthy for the whole two months, the door was opened for Shane Bieber and his unbelievable season. With all due respect to strong seasons from Jose Ramirez, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, and of course Mike Trout, it's a pretty easy pick for me to choose Bieber. Bieber led all AL pitchers in wins, ERA, and strikeouts and had the second best WHIP, and he did so with the second most innings in the league. With Francisco Lindor stumbling to a .258/.335/.415 slash line, the Indians really struggled to score runs with a lineup that saw only Ramirez break even an .800 OPS. The Tribe could not afford bad starts this year, and Bieber went at least five innings and allowed no more than three runs in each of his twelve starts. In fact, he allowed zero or one earned runs in seven of his twelve starts, putting even a futile Cleveland offense in position to win every single time he took the mound. And without his contributions, they would have been no better than a seven or eight seed, rather than the four seed they ended up with. The crowning achievement of his season likely came in just his second start, when he limited the eventual AL Central champion Twins to three baserunners over eight shutout innings while striking out thirteen.

Runner-Up: 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 17 HR, .292/.386/.607, 10 SB, 163 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR in 58 games.
Behind Shane Bieber, the AL MVP race is pretty jumbled, with five players finishing with an OPS between .987 and 1.011, none of which were particularly standout defenders. Jose Ramirez didn't actually lead the league in anything besides his 3.4 fWAR and 45 runs scored, but instead, was simply Very Good in lots of areas. He finished second in OPS (.993), third in home runs (17), doubles (16), RBI (46), and slugging percentage (.607), fifth in wRC+ (163) and stolen bases (10), and sixth in on-base percentage (.386). On an Indians team that absolutely could not hit, he was the only player with above an .800 OPS and essentially carried the entire offense. Bieber shut down the AL and NL Central divisions on his own, but when he wasn't on the mound, Ramirez was often tasked with single-handedly keeping pace with the Twins, White Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals offenses. His numbers need a slight asterisk because he wasn't facing the most difficult schedule in the Central division, but with good defense and baserunning ability that could not be matched by anybody in his realm of the MVP range, in addition to playing in all but two of the Indians' games, he still gets the edge.

Honorable Mention: OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 17 HR, .281/.390/.603, 1 SB, 164 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 53 games.
If Mike Trout hadn't missed a few games for the birth of his son, I think he would clearly have the third spot, but at this point it's so close that I wouldn't argue with DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, or even Anthony Rendon in this spot. Trout gets the slight edge because even though he only played in 53 games (T-45th in the AL), he still collected 241 plate appearances that had him tied for 15th in the league. Throw in 17 home runs and nearly a .400 on-base percentage, and you're pretty darn close to an MVP, never mind that his .993 OPS was actually below his 1.000 career OPS. Even in what wasn't his best season (and missing a few games), the best player in the world finished third in the league in home runs (17), RBI (46), and wRC+ (164), fourth in on-base percentage (.390), slugging (.603), and runs scored (41), and fifth in fWAR (2.6). He and guys like Rendon, Dylan Bundy, and David Fletcher did all they could to keep the Angels in the playoff hunt, but their extreme lack of depth cost them as they stumbled to a 26-34 record, three games out of a postseason spot.

Others: 2B DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 2.7 fWAR), 1B Jose Abreu (CWS, 2.7 fWAR), 3B Anthony Rendon (LAA, 2.8 fWAR), Kenta Maeda (MIN, 2.70 ERA), Gerrit Cole (NYY, 2.84 ERA)

NL MVP: 1B Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 13 HR, .341/.462/.640, 2 SB, 187 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR in 60 games.
To me, it's very very close between Freeman and Fernando Tatis, but Freeman just barely gets the edge because of his absolute dominance at the plate. The Braves' rotation was decimated by injuries and other problems in 2020, throwing their status as the NL's consensus second best team in doubt. But Freeman, combined with Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuña, made sure that runs were never really an issue and that they could win any slugfest. Freeman in particular was a one man wrecking crew, and if not for Juan Soto, his monster .341/.462/.640 slash line would have led the NL in each category. Not only that, but Freeman was one of just seven NL players to appear in all sixty games, and his 262 plate appearances put him third in the league. He hit in August (.330/.440/.582) and he hit in September (.375/.496/.750), not just bursting out with a couple weeks of excellence but maintaining it all season long. Aside from Soto and his 200 wRC+, no National League player has topped Freeman's 187 since Bryce Harper's 197 in 2015, and before that, not since Barry Bonds' 233 in 2004.

Runner-up: SS Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Stat line: 17 HR, .277/.366/.571, 11 SB, 149 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR in 59 games.
I wanted to give this award to Tatis, I really did, and I would have strongly considered him ahead of Shane Bieber if he were in the AL. Even though he hit just .164/.242/.291 over his last 16 games, which is more than a quarter of the season, what he did in his first 43 games was unparalleled anywhere in either league. As of September 7th, before the slump started, he was hitting .314/.405/.663 with a league leading 15 home runs, but his value went beyond that. Tatis was one of the best defenders in baseball by multiple different measures, and with eleven stolen bases, he even finished fourth in the NL in that category. He energized the Padres' players, organization, and socially distant fanbase in a way that no other player did in 2020, and for that reason I believe his value goes well beyond the 3.0 fWAR he put up in 59 games. Take Tatis out of that lineup and I don't think the 37-23 Padres drop to 34-26, but to something more like 30-30. San Diego's biggest asset in 2020 was its energy, and Tatis was at the center. Had he played even average baseball over the last couple weeks of the season, I think he would have been the clear MVP.

Honorable mention: OF Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 18 HR, .338/.431/.636, 0 SB, 179 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 60 games.
Here in the third spot, I wouldn't argue with Manny Machado, who carried the Padres through Tatis' slump on his way to a strong .304/.370/.580 season + his trademark defense, or Trea Turner, who had an unbelievable stretch in which he hit .471/.526/.816 over 21 games (over a third of the season!) and at one point collected fifteen hits in a four stretch. But Marcell Ozuna's continued offensive dominance over a "full," sixty game season could only be matched by his teammate Freddie Freeman, and his 18 home runs and 56 RBI finished atop the National League while his .431 on-base percentage and .636 slugging percentage weren't far behind. Looking at the Braves' final 35-25 record, you'd have no idea about their rotation problems or the fact that Ronald Acuña missed nearly a quarter of the season, and that's due to Freeman and Ozuna forming the best middle of the order in baseball by far. He kept Freeman from getting the Juan Soto/Barry Bonds treatment, and in total he produced as much offense as any non-Freeman player in baseball.

Others: RHP Trevor Bauer (CIN, 1.73 ERA), 3B Manny Machado (SD, 2.5 fWAR), SS Trea Turner (WSH, 2.7 fWAR), OF Mookie Betts (LAD, 2.9 fWAR), OF Juan Soto (WSH, 2.4 fWAR)

AL Cy Young: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
This was the easiest award to hand out by far, didn't have to think twice. See Bieber's MVP writeup for more details.

Runner-up: RHP Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins
Stat line: 6-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 80/10 K/BB in 66.2 IP.
This #2 slot is very close between Maeda and Gerrit Cole, but Maeda's incredible ability to not only limit runs but limit baserunners gives him the edge. His 0.75 WHIP led both leagues by a good margin ahead of second place Trevor Bauer (0.79) and third place Dinelson Lamet (0.86), and it's actually the second lowest ever in a season behind Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000 (Bauer, interestingly, is fourth best all time). In his eleven starts, Maeda went at least five innings in all of them and never allowed more than three runs in a start, but more impressively, he never allowed more than six baserunners in any start. His best work came on August 18th against the Brewers when he allowed one run on just three baserunners over eight innings, striking out twelve. With a lack of superstar seasons ahead of him (aside from Bieber), it's enough to place second in the league despite a 2.70 ERA.

Honorable mention: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Stat line: 7-3, 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
I'm a sucker for a large body of work, so the fact that Gerrit Cole finished fourth in the American League with 73 innings is a big plus for me. Obviously that's not all he had going for him, also racking up the third most strikeouts (94), fourth best WHIP (0.96), and sixth best ERA (2.84) despite pitching in a heavy hitters' park and pitching most of his road starts in hitters' parks as well in Baltimore, Atlanta, and Buffalo. Still, he spun some gems and finished the season with three consecutive seven inning starts in which he allowed one run or fewer, and he struck out at least seven in ten of his twelve starts. Yankees fans may have had sky high, Cy Young or bust expectations (I should know – I'm engaged to one) and a 2.84 ERA might feel like a let down, but given the fact that he made just two starts in pitcher friendly parks this year and that he still kept his WHIP under 1.00 and struck out nearly 100, I'd call this exactly what New York paid for.

Others: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR, 2.69 ERA), LHP Dallas Keuchel (CWS, 1.99 ERA), RHP Lance Lynn (TEX, 3.32 ERA), RHP Zach Plesac (CLE, 2.28 ERA), LHP Marco Gonzales (SEA, 3.10 ERA).

NL Cy Young: RHP Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 5-4, 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 100/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
It's been an interesting few years for Trevor Bauer, who never posted an ERA below 4.18 from 2012-2017 but dropped all the way to 2.21 in 2018, only to rocket back up to 4.48 in 2019. Now in 2020, he's coming off a year that could very well win him a Cy Young Award, and it was a 1.24 ERA and a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio over his final four starts that fully pushed him past Jacob deGrom. Bauer's entire season was exceptional, with four different starts of a dozen or more strikeouts, eight out of eleven starts allowing either zero or one earned run, and all eleven where he pitched into the sixth inning. He led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79) while finishing second in strikeouts (100) and sixth in innings pitched, all while pitching in a tough hitters' park in Cincinnati. This year, it was the Reds' offense that scuffled at times, not its pitching as had been the case in years past, and Bauer combined with Luis Castillo to form one of the best one-two punches in baseball. The short season obviously matters, but his 0.79 WHIP is technically the lowest in the history of the National League, and that counts for something.

Runner-up: RHP Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
Stat line: 8-3, 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 93/14 K/BB in 76 IP.
I went back and forth between Yu Darvish and Dinelson Lamet for this spot, but Darvish gets the edge with seven more innings pitched, a slightly lower ERA, and similar dominance in terms of keeping runners off the bases. He was one of baseball's better pitchers from 2012-2016 with the Rangers before falling into more of an inconsistent, mid-rotation profile with the Dodgers and Cubs from 2017-2019. 2020 was the best we've ever seen from the Japanese hurler, in which he had the second best ERA in the National League. After allowing three runs over four innings in an unremarkable first start of the season, he allowed zero or one earned run in eight of his final eleven starts and went at least six innings in each of them. That consistency was key for a Cubs team that won the NL Central for the first time since 2017, and by eating 76 innings, he was third in the league. He did it by the strikeout, his 93 finishing fourth in the league, but he also did it with excellent command, his 1.66 walks per nine finishing second only to his teammate Kyle Hendricks.

Honorable mention: RHP Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 3-1, 2.09 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 93/20 K/BB in 69 IP.
A three win pitcher as a top three Cy Young candidate? 2020 really is a different animal. After flashing strikeout stuff over his first two seasons sandwiched around Tommy John surgery, Dinelson Lamet put it all together in 2020 for baseball's most exciting team. In twelve starts, he put up a 2.09 ERA, struck out 93, and allowed just 39 hits in 69 innings. Aside from a precautionary early exit in his final start of the season, Lamet went at least five innings in all of his starts and never allowed more than six hits or three earned runs in any. He finished second in the NL in WHIP (0.86), third in ERA (2.09), and fourth in strikeouts (93). His .250 xwOBA (expected opponents' offense, essentially) was third in the NL behind only Bauer and Jacob deGrom, showing that his exceptional season was earned, too. If you've never seen a Lamet slider, you need to watch one of his starts.

Others: RHP Jacob deGrom (NYM, 2.38 ERA), RHP Kyle Hendricks (CHC, 2.88 ERA), LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD, 2.16 ERA), RHP Corbin Burnes (MIL, 2.11 ERA), RHP German Marquez (COL, 3.75 ERA)