The Astros forfeited their first and second round picks in both 2020 and 2021 as penance for the sign stealing scandal, so they had not picked above #72 since 2019 and their pick at #28 tied their highest pick since 2018. With more draft capital than they've had in years, Houston put together a fantastic class, headlined by their potential outfield of the future in Drew Gilbert, Jacob Melton, and Ryan Clifford, the latter of whom signed for over a million dollars above "slot" in the eleventh round. I especially love those first two picks of Gilbert and Melton, two college bats with exceptional power/speed combinations who put it together for very strong seasons in their respective power conferences. After those two, Houston pivoted to arms and selected seven pitchers in their next eight picks, including fascinating lefty Trey Dombroski who dominated the Cape Cod League despite a fastball in the upper 80's. In addition to Houston area native and Oral Roberts shortstop Jackson Loftin, the Astros drafted two other players out of Texas schools in TCU's Tommy Sacco Jr. and Dallas Baptist's Ryan Wrobleski.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-28: OF Drew Gilbert, Tennessee. My rank: #12.
Slot value: $2.62 million. Signing bonus: $2.50 million ($121,700 below slot value).
I love this pick. I thought Drew Gilbert had a chance to sneak into the top ten picks on an under slot deal, but he lasted until the back of the round and still saved the Astros some money. If you watch college baseball, you're very familiar with the name, but if not, let me introduce him to you. The University of Tennessee has a reputation as a loud, cocky, in-your-face type of team that competes like crazy, and Gilbert is right in the middle of that. He's loud, he plays with fire, and he hates losing as much as anybody out there. He originally rose to fame with this walk off grand slam in the 2021 Knoxville Regional, resulting in possibly the longest home run trot in baseball history (I clocked it at 34.4 seconds). So now that we know he's a competitor, who is Drew Gilbert as a player? Well, the Minnesota native is coming off a tremendous season in which he slashed .362/.455/.673 with eleven home runs and a 32/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games, also adding 21 doubles and four triples along the way to give him 36 extra base hits in that span. Just 5'9", he can really smoke the ball with an explosive swing that shows real power to the pull side, registering high exit velocities that make those 36 extra base hits perfectly unsurprising. Despite his big left handed hack, he's a disciplined hitter with a very accurate barrel that rarely swings and misses, handling top flight SEC pitching easily. He also should stick in center field, where his plus speed plays well and his cannon left arm – which drew some scouting interest as a pitcher at Stillwater High School northeast of St. Paul – will make him an asset. Gilbert should move quickly through the minors and if fans are still booing the Astros by the time he reaches the majors, which they probably will be, he'll be completely unfazed after being the face of the most hated team in college baseball (though personally I loved watching Tennessee play). This is a good one.
2-64: OF Jacob Melton, Oregon State. My rank: #33.
Slot value: $1.10 million. Signing bonus: $1 million ($104,100 below slot value).
Another pick, another college outfielder that really should not have been available to the Astros that they pounced on for six figures below slot value. Jacob Melton raked in a limited sample size in 2021, where he slashed .404/.466/.697 in 32 games, then came back and was named the Pac-12 Player of the Year in 2022 after he slashed .360/.424/.670 with 17 home runs and a 51/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Melton has a very broad set of skills to build on, perhaps most notably his plus raw power that has helped him slug near .700 over the past two seasons. He has a very simple setup at the plate aside from a big leg kick, as he keeps his weight and his hands back before getting long, uphill through the zone to tap that power. With a projectable, athletic 6'3" frame, it's all he really needs to do to send the ball out. The southern Oregon native is an aggressive hitter but still does not swing and miss too much, keeping a reasonable 17.3% strikeout rate this spring while consistently driving extra base hits to all fields. Melton is also a great athlete that handles himself well in the outfield, with the speed and arm strength necessary to become a solid center fielder or plus right fielder. He does a lot well and could move relatively quickly, and it will be interesting to watch him race Drew Gilbert to the majors. The two could make up two thirds of a very strong outfield for Houston in the long run.
2C-80: RHP Andrew Taylor, Central Michigan. My rank: #168.
Slot value: $807,200. Signing bonus: $807,200.
Switching gears to the pitching side of things, the Astros brought on Andrew Taylor out of Central Michigan. While Drew Gilbert and Jacob Melton captured headlines in the SEC and Pac-12, respectively, Taylor quietly went about his business in the MAC and finished his three year career in Mount Pleasant 20-8 with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 261/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 195 innings. He's a long, lanky, 6'5" righty with a fastball that gets up to 94 and a full set of secondaries. His changeup is presently his best offspeed pitch as a consistent putaway offering, while his two breaking balls are average pitches with the curveball having bigger shape and the tighter slider coming along more recently. Taylor fills up the strike zone with all four pitches and has rarely been challenged against MAC competition, and he showed well in big non-conference/playoff matchups with Coastal Carolina, Wake Forest, Miami, Iowa, and Florida this spring (combined 2.78 ERA, 33/9 K/BB over 22.2 innings). The focus now will be getting stronger and sharpening his offspeed stuff. Taylor is a string bean at 6'5" and can see his velocity dip into the upper 80's later in his starts, so adding weight to that frame and sitting more consistently in the low 90's will be very important. The fastball comes from a steep approach angle but does have some nice hop to it that Houston can tinker with, and if one of his breaking balls can take a step forward and become a 55 offering, he could be a #3 or #4 starter. Working in the western Michigan native's favor is his age, as he's very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until September. Ironically, that makes him roughly a full year younger than both Melton and Gilbert.
3-103: RHP Michael Knorr, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #161.
Slot value: $594,600. Signing bonus: $487,500 ($107,100 below slot value).
The Astros picked up one of the better senior signs available in Michael Knorr, a Cal State Fullerton transfer who broke out this spring with a 3.39 ERA and an 86/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings for Coastal Carolina. He has a fastball that consistently sits in the low to mid 90's and reached 99 this spring, showing some running action to help it play up. Knorr spins an above average, two plane curveball and his changeup is a solid pitch as well. He comes across his body in his delivery to put difficult angle on his pitches, helping them all play up further and giving hitters a different look. The 6'5" righty is durable and pounds the strike zone, looking like a very solid, innings eating #4 or #5 starter. Houston is buying the late bloomer's trajectory here, and although he's a senior sign, he's on the younger side for the class having only turned 22 in May. The combination of power stuff and strong pitchability make him a favorite of many scouts. He should move quickly through the minors and could crack the back of the Houston rotation by 2024.
4-133: LHP Trey Dombroski, Monmouth. My rank: #114.
Slot value: $443,900. Signing bonus: $443,900.
This is a fascinating pick. Trey Dombroski has been nothing short of dominant everywhere he's gone, and over the last two years at Monmouth he's 11-3 with a 2.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 184/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 147.2 innings. That's all well and good, but Wofford was probably the toughest lineup he faced this spring (and he threw very well, FWIW), so it has to be taken with a grain of salt, right? Well sandwiched between his excellent sophomore and junior seasons was an even better run through the Cape Cod League in summer 2021, in which he posted a 1.19 ERA and a 51/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings. Given the ample track record both in the MAAC and on the Cape, you'd be surprised to find out Dombroski only sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, scraping 92-93 at his best. His success is derived his secondaries, command, and pitchability, not velocity. His changeup is probably his best pitch with nice fade, while he mixes in a sweeping slider and a bigger curveball. The 6'5" lefty hides the ball well and not only locates, but plays his pitches off each other, working all of them to different locations around the zone and keeping hitters completely off balance. It's a really old school profile that might have pitched fifteen years in the big leagues if he were born a generation earlier, but he could still make that happen in today's game. His soft tossing, deceptive, keep-you-guessing style of pitching is becoming more and more of a differentiator, and given how untouchable he looked against elite bats in the Cape Cod League, you have to think the Astros can make it all work. The Jersey Shore native just needs to add a tick or two of velocity to comfortably sit more 90-92 rather than the 87-90 he currently shows, and he could become a very solid big league starter that could hold down an innings eater role for a long time.
7-223: RHP AJ Blubaugh, Milwaukee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $202,900. Signing bonus: $172,500 ($30,400 below slot value).
AJ Blubaugh was one of the latest risers in the class, finally breaking through into serious draft consideration in the Cape Cod League this summer. After a solid season as a swingman for Wisconsin-Milwaukee in which he posted a 3.25 ERA and a 51/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.2 innings, he joined Orleans on the Cape and was lights out, allowing just two hits and no walks over 9.1 shutout innings, striking out thirteen of the thirty batters he faced along the way (43.3%). He's a late bloomer physically that has steadily gotten more and more physical, now pushing his fastball into the mid 90's more consistently in short stints. The pitch has some ride that misses bats up in the zone, and he pairs it with a nice changeup that functions as his best secondary for now. The 6'2" righty also throws a pair of slurvy breaking balls that need to be tightened up a bit, giving him a full arsenal if the Astros can put it together. He's a great athlete that gets down the mound well and makes for a great ball of clay for an organization that develops pitching well, so he could really go in any number of directions. If Houston gets the breaking balls snapping better while keeping his command together, he could be a solid starting pitcher, or they could throw him in the bullpen and let him work off that fastball/changeup combo and see the former touch 96-97 or higher more frequently. The Ohio native turned 22 shortly before the draft so he is on the older side for a college junior.
11-343: OF Ryan Clifford, Pro5 Academy [NC]. My rank: #95.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $1.26 million ($1.13 million against bonus pool).
The Astros shot for the moon with this pick, as it was no secret that Ryan Clifford was hell-bent on attending Vanderbilt and he likely would have gone in the top two to three rounds if he had been more signable. Houston did not dish out any above-slot deals in the first ten rounds, giving them over a million dollars to play with in rounds eleven through twenty for players who want to sign for more than $125,000 (up to $125K per pick does not count against the bonus pool), so they were able to land Clifford with a massive bonus. For reference, his $1.26 million bonus would have been closest to the slot value of pick #59 in the second round. In this Raleigh-Durham product, the Astros are getting a kid with as much big stage experience as any teenager, having appeared in national showcase events throughout his childhood and performing well at them along the way. Fully committed to a future in baseball, he played high school ball at Pro5 Academy while taking classes at Crossroads FLEX High School. As you might expect from someone with so much experience around high level competition, Clifford is a very advanced hitter for a teenager that takes great at bats and is unfazed by high end stuff. He generates above average power from a smooth left handed swing, working with a strong, lean 6'3" frame that aids in his power projection. While he didn't quite dominate the showcase circuit this past summer the way scouts had hoped, he was back to his usual hot hitting ways in the spring and was rumored to have interest as high as the second round. Clifford has a chance to be an above average hitter with above average power, which would make him a staple in the Astros lineup as a potential 20-25 home run hitter with good on-base percentages. For as great a hitter as he is, he's an unremarkable athlete that may end up in left field in the long run, so the pressure will be on his bat to live up to the hype. Had he gone to Vanderbilt, he would have been eligible again in 2024 because his July birthday makes him old for a high school senior.
12-373: SS Zach Dezenzo, Ohio State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Houston picked up a quality senior sign in Zach Dezenzo, who hit .319/.413/.700 with 19 home runs and a 50/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games this spring. He's a big guy at a listed 6'4", 220 pounds, and bringing a ton of strength and leverage to the plate and blasting some long home runs along the way. Dezenzo is an aggressive hitter with some moving parts in his swing including a slight hitch in the load that impede his bat to ball skills, so the transition from the Big Ten to pro pitching will be a bit steep, but he produces elite exit velocities when he does connect and he does so frequently enough to tap his power very consistently in games. A shortstop for Ohio State, the northeastern Ohio native will likely have to move off the position but he could stick at third base or provide some value in the outfield. If he can get to even a fringy hit tool, he could be a very solid platoon bat for Houston in the future that can club 15-20 home runs a year in a part time role.
13-403: SS Jackson Loftin, Oral Roberts. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Houston is a hotbed of baseball talent and the Astros did pick up one player from the sprawling metro, Oral Roberts shortstop Jackson Loftin. Loftin grew up in the northern suburb of Spring and attended Klein Collins High School, alma mater of Reds outfielder Tyler Naquin and Giants outfielder Austin Dean. After three lackluster seasons at Sam Houston State, he transferred up north to Oral Roberts where he broke out with a .349/.447/.572 slash line, ten home runs, and a 34/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. Loftin has a solid 6'2" frame and used it more effectively in 2022, channeling his strength into a more direct swing with a better approach at the plate that paid huge dividends. On top of a very solid all around bat that can drive the ball to both gaps with authority with some over the fence power to the pull side, he's a very good runner that stole 25 bases for Oral Roberts this spring and played a solid shortstop. He has the look of a utility infielder that can play all over the diamond and do a little bit of everything.
