2019 Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

First five rounds: Corbin Carroll (1-16), Blake Walston (1-26), Brennan Malone (1-33), Drey Jameson (1-34), Ryne Nelson (2-56), Tommy Henry (CBB-74), Dominic Fletcher (CBB-75), Tristin English (3-93), Glenallen Hill Jr. (4-122), Conor Grammes (5-152)
Also notable: Avery Short (12-362), Jerrion Ealy (31-932)

The Diamondbacks had an extra first round pick after failing to sign last year's first rounder Matt McLain, picked up a pair of compensation picks for losing Patrick Corbin to the Nationals and A.J. Pollock to the Dodgers, earned a competitive balance pick through the lottery, and obtained an additional competitive balance pick in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. In all, that gave Arizona four of the first 34 picks and eight of the first 93, enabling them to play around with their massive bonus pool and bring on a ton of talent. They went underslot with five of those picks (potentially six if Tommy Henry signs underslot) and used their massive savings to reel in overslot picks in Glenallen Hill Jr. and Avery Short later in the draft, and they may not be done as they still have a few hundred thousand dollars left in that bonus pool. Overall, this massive influx of talent featured five consecutive pitchers after first rounder Corbin Carroll, a personal favorite of mine, there were so many picks that I didn't even get a chance to write about guys like seventh rounder Spencer Brickhouse, a power hitter from East Carolina, or 24th rounder Dylan Eskew, a high-upside high schooler from Tampa.

1-16: OF Corbin Carroll (Lakeside HS [WA], my rank: 8)
With their first of eight million or so picks this year, the Diamondbacks started it off strong and took a player I really like. Carroll is an outfielder from Seattle whose short stature, skinny frame, and lack of present power are no problem when you consider the rest of the package. Listed at 5'10" and 165 pounds, Carroll has exceptional feel for the barrel, so much so that he can actually hit for close to average power if he wants to and he still won't have to worry about too much swing and miss. He also uses his speed and instincts to play very good defense in center field, and that speed plays up on the bases too. On top of it all, he's reported to have a fantastic work ethic, and he should move quicker than most high school players. Carroll's ultimate projection is that of a high on-base, high stolen base, leadoff type of hitter who can also hit 10-15 home runs per season, maybe more if he fills out a little bit. He signed away from UCLA at slot for $3.75 million and is slashing .316/.316/.368 with a stolen base and six strikeouts over his first five games in the complex-level Arizona League.

1-26: LHP Blake Walston (New Hanover HS [NC], my rank: 42)
The Diamondbacks went underslot here, and perhaps no underslot signing at this point in the draft could have given them as much upside as Blake Walston. The Wilmington, North Carolina left hander is 6'4" and has an ideal pitchers' frame, albeit without much man strength on it yet. He sits in the low 90's when he's at his best, but his velocity fluctuates a lot and he is usually down somewhere in the 80's later in games. His curveball can also be a true plus pitch at its best, and even when it loses power and gets loopy, it still has good shape and he should have no trouble refining it into a consistent out pitch. Walston also adds a slider and a changeup to round out his four pitch arsenal, and his command is fairly advanced for his age, especially given how inconsistent his stuff can be. Walston will need some work on his mechanics, but ultimately getting on a pro conditioning program will hopefully help him get that fastball velocity up and get more power on his breaking balls, so he has ace upside. As a bonus, Walston is fairly young for the class and only turned 18 at the end of June. He signed for $2.45 million, which was $200,000 below slot and which kept him from attending NC State.

1-33: RHP Brennan Malone (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 19)
After going underslot with Walston, I thought it would take an overslot deal to sign Malone away from a UNC commitment here, but they surprisingly got him at slot. Malone moved from Charlotte, North Carolina between his junior and senior seasons to attend the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, and it helped him get more consistent with his stuff. The 6'3" righty now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets good movement on it, and he adds a pair of breaking balls and a changeup. His curveball was his out pitch before this season and it can look plus at its best but often flattens out, but this year he added a slider which has become his new out pitch and which is much more consistent. His command has also improved from shaky to average, and his athleticism has helped him along the way. Malone, like Walston, has a high ceiling as a frontline starter, but he has less work to do to get there as he can already hold his velocity through games. However, I think Walston's ceiling is just a bit higher. Malone signed at slot for $2.2 million.

1-34: RHP Drey Jameson (Ball State, my rank: 50)
With their first college pick, the Diamondbacks went underslot and selected a high upside, high risk pitcher in Drey Jameson. The six foot right hander who grew up outside of Indianapolis is a draft-eligible sophomore, but he's very old for the class and would actually be on the older side for a college junior because he turns 22 in August. Jameson improved on his up and down freshman season to post a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings this year. Not only is Jameson fairly short for a pitcher at six feet tall, he also weighs in at just 165 pounds and likely won't add too much more. Still, he has a live arm that produces a mid 90's fastball and a pair of good breaking balls, and he has the arm strength to maintain his stuff and velocity deep into games. That stuff enabled him to miss a ton of bats in the relatively weak Mid-America Conference, and he should continue to miss bats in pro ball. However, his command tends to come and go, and with a high effort delivery at his size, there are reliever questions. Optimists can look at the arm strength and stuff and project him as a potential mid-rotation starter, but pessimists would argue that his size won't hold up when he moves from the every-seventh-day college schedule to the every-fifth-day pro schedule, forcing him to the bullpen. Still, he could be nasty as a reliever. Jameson signed for $1.4 million, which was $750,000 below slot.

2-56: RHP Ryne Nelson (Oregon, my rank: 72)
Another college pitcher with a premium fastball, another underslot signing. Nelson was a two-way player for Oregon as a freshman and a sophomore, but he became a pitcher-only in the Cape Cod League (2.65 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 17 IP) and continued with that as a junior this year in Eugene. After that strong showing on the Cape, it was an up and down year for the Las Vegas-area native as he split time between the rotation and the bullpen and finished with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings. Nelson's biggest strength is his mid to upper 90's fastball, which he was able to blow past Pac-12 hitters at a frightening rate this year, and he also adds a good slider that can get its share of swings and misses. However, he lacks much of a changeup and his command is very mediocre this year, so he ended up getting hit harder when he fell behind in the count or when he left balls over the plate. On one hand, he's fairly new to pitching and didn't focus exclusively on it until this year, and his athleticism could help him transition to the rotation and become successful there as he gets more refined. On the other, he's a college reliever who didn't get great results this year, and that's a tough hole to climb out of. His lack of command likely pushes him to the bullpen long term, but we'll see how he progresses. The 6'3" righty signed for $1.1 million, which was $180,000 below slot.

CBB-74: LHP Tommy Henry (Michigan, my rank: 75)
One of the centerpieces of Michigan's surprise run to the College World Series Finals, Tommy Henry has a live arm but has been up and down this spring. After posting a 3.09 ERA and a 77/26 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he came back this year with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings for the Wolverines, a heavy workload which will probably limit his pro innings this year once he signs. Henry is a 6'3" lefty from just outside Kalamazoo, Michigan, and he has looked very good at his best. He tossed 23 shutout innings with a 34/2 strikeout to walk ratio over his first three starts against SUNY Binghamton, The Citadel, and Cal State Northridge, then stepped up against a fearsome UCLA lineup in his next start and struck out ten over six innings. However, he put up an unsightly 6.50 ERA and a 42/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings in conference play, making it look like he just got lucky in that UCLA start. Then he confused us again by averaging eight innings per start in the NCAA Tournament and striking out 31 to just three walks over 31.2 innings (though three of those four starts came after the draft). When he's on, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and an advanced changeup with good command, but during that run through the Big 10 as well as previously in his career, he sat closer to 90, his stuff flattened out a bit, and his command regressed from above average to average. Pre-draft, I wasn't sold on Henry because I didn't like the idea of drafting someone on Day One just due to a month of good pitching early in the season, but his very good post-draft performance has me more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and I might have ranked him ten spots higher if I re-did them today. Henry projects as a back-end starter if he can get to where he has been at his best more consistently, though he could be a #3 if he not only gets there but takes a step forward. However, pitching like he did in the middle of the season will get him bumped to the bullpen, and his early birthday (he turns 22 in July) doesn't help him. He hasn't signed because his season ended less than a week ago, and slot value is $844,200.

CBB-75: OF Dominic Fletcher (Arkansas, my rank: 102)
Fletcher, like Henry, is a bit of an enigma, but for different reasons. The younger brother of Angels infielder David Fletcher, Dominic has performed well at Arkansas despite lacking standout tools. Fletcher had his best year in 2019, when he slashed .313/.385/.528 with eleven home runs and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio, and that included a .305/.346/.500 run through SEC play. The Southern California native is only 5'9" and he doesn't show much raw power, but he got to what little power he has frequently at Arkansas and against high level pitching. However, for a 5'9" kid who needs to find the barrel consistently to make an impact, his plate discipline isn't great and that was especially apparent in SEC play, where he struck out 30 times (22.1%) to just six walks. If he wants his approach to work in pro ball, he'll need to get more selective and find pitches he can drive. Defensively, it's a similar story as Fletcher lacks speed but uses his instincts to get to a lot of fly balls in the outfield. He could be playable in center field, but left field would be the better overall fit and he could excel there. Overall, he projects as a fourth outfielder with some power and a decent on-base percentage. He signed for $700,000, which was $131,100 below slot, and he is slashing .300/.364/.400 with a double and a walk over his first three games at Class A Kane County.

3-93: 1B Tristin English (Georgia Tech, unranked)
A two-way player at Georgia Tech, English drew some interest as a right handed reliever as he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 20/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings as the Yellow Jackets' closer this year, doing so with a low 90's fastball and a couple of solid breaking balls. However, his future lies as a hitter after he slashed .346/.427/.710 with 18 home runs and a 30/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, also leading the ACC by a wide margin with 21 hit by pitches (Florida State's Matheu Nelson was second with 17). The Central Georgia native also slashed .300/.366/.510 with five home runs and a 15/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games on the Cape, and with his 6'3" frame, it's easy to see his power playing up at the next level. He'll need to get a little more patient at the plate to start drawing some more walks, but he has 20-25 home run upside with decent on-base percentages if he can transition to pro ball well. Working against him is his age, as he's a college senior who already turned 22 in May, but seniors have succeeded before. Defensively, he's playable in either corner outfield spot and has done a good job at first base, so while the pressure will still be on his bat, he at least provides some moderate value in the field. He signed for $500,000, which was $127,900 below slot, and he picked up one single in four at bats in his first game with short-season Hillsboro.

4-122: SS Glenallen Hill Jr. (Santa Cruz HS [CA], my rank: 127)
After five straight college picks, the Diamondbacks went back to the high school side and took Glenallen Hill Jr., son of 13 year major leaguer Glenallen Hill who was mostly a fourth outfielder in the 1990's. Junior played his high school ball out in Santa Cruz, which I imagine isn't the worst place to grow up, and he shows a very interesting skills package despite only standing 5'9", which makes him the fourth "little guy" that the Diamondbacks drafted. The switch hitter has plenty of bat speed in both of his swings and shows good loft from the right side, helping him hit for average power despite his size. He doesn't make the most consistent contact, and that will definitely be something to work on in pro ball, but finding the barrel a little bit more will help him become a true threat at the plate. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but will likely have to move to center field, where he can use his plus speed to become an above average defender once he gets more reps. Hill is raw and needs a lot of work, but he has high upside if he can make the necessary adjustments and become a faster Willie Calhoun. He signed for $850,000, which was $381,000 above slot, and he's slashing .185/.214/.370 with a home run, three stolen bases, and a 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio over his first seven games with Corbin Carroll in the Arizona League.

5-152: RHP Conor Grammes (Xavier, unranked)
Grammes, like English, was a two way player in college with draft aspirations both ways, but he ended up being selected as a pitcher. He came to Xavier without much fanfare, as he managed to walk on to the team after emailing the coach. I played against him in high school and while he was a good shortstop at McLean in Northern Virginia, he didn't stand out on the field as much as you would expect from a future fifth rounder, so the progress he has made with the Musketeers is remarkable. Grammes put up fantastic numbers over three years as a hitter for Xavier, slashing .334/.396/.513 with 25 home runs in 168 games. He also posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 79/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings as a starting pitcher this year, and that's what he'll be doing in the Arizona farm system. Grammes sat in the mid 90's as a starter but when he transitions to relief in pro ball, he should be able to sit in the upper 90's with his big fastball. However, given that he is new to pitching and has been a two-way player as well, his fastball is just about his only weapon at this point. His slider is inconsistent and can flatten out, and his command is well below average because he throws from a high-effort delivery. Now that he is giving up hitting, focusing on his slider and command will be his priorities, and he could turn himself into a set-up man at the big league level. He signed for $300,000, which was $50,300 below slot.

12-362: LHP Avery Short (Southport HS [IN], my rank: 111)
The D-Backs built up a bunch of savings with their early picks, and while some of that went to signing Glenallen Hill Jr. away from Arizona State, and even bigger chunk went to grabbing Indianapolis-area high schooler Avery Short in the twelfth round. Short is only 18, but he looks like a college pitcher because his pitchability is so advanced. He sits in the high 80's with his fringy fastball and can occasionally bump it into the low 90's, but he adds a good curveball and slider that can generate swings and misses already in addition to a changeup. He also has very advanced command for his age and mixes his pitches effectively, so he should be able to move more quickly than the typical high school arm. The 6'2" lefty could add some velocity once he gets on a pro conditioning program, and just a little more velocity is all he needs if he wants to be a back-end starter in the majors, if not more, so long as he maintains his command. If Short can improve not just his velocity but his secondary pitches as well, he could be a mid-rotation starter. It took $922,500 to sign him away from Louisville, which counts for $797,500 against Arizona's bonus pool.

31-932: OF Jerrion Ealy (Jackson Prep HS [MS], my rank: 65)
Signability was a concern with Ealy, and evidently his asking price was too high for teams to match and he'll end up at Ole Miss. The Diamondbacks actually have a few hundred thousand left in their bonus pool and could offer him upwards of $500,000, but even that seems a little light to draw him away from school and that money will probably go elsewhere, such as to 16th rounder Brock Jones, a lefty with a nice curveball or to 24th rounder Dylan Eskew, a live armed righty with some upside who ranked 119th on my list. Ealy is arguably the best athlete in the class as he is also a five star running back recruit and will play both sports at Ole Miss. He's following the trend of short draftees and stands just 5'10", but he's built like a tank and packs a lot of strength into his shorter frame. The Carthage, Mississippi native who attended high school an hour away in Jackson had first round hopes coming into the season, but a poor senior season dropped his stock to more of a second round talent. He hits for power but his swing mechanics are very raw and need a lot of work, which caused him to perform poorly this spring against mediocre Mississippi high school competition. His top of the scale athleticism plays very well in center field, where he figures to be a plus defender with a strong arm, as well as on the bases, where he should use his speed to steal plenty of bases. Getting those swing mechanics ironed out will be the biggest challenge for Ealy, but if he can do it, he could be a five tool player at the major league level. We'll just have to wait a few years to let him play for the Rebels.

2019 Draft Preview: College Outfielders

There are two clear headliners in this year's college outfield class, though aside from Kameron Misner, there probably won't be any others picked until the middle of the second round or later. Aside from the lack of a middle tier of late first round/comp round/early second round guys, there is a lot to like here, and once you get towards the end of day one/start of day two, there are quite a few guys who could make a difference in a variety of ways.

Tier I: JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop
The two top outfielders in the class arrived here with huge junior seasons in which they tremendously improved their stock. Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday was seen as more likely to go in the back half of the first round after he slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, with scouts pleased by his plate discipline but looking for more power. He provided it and more this year, slashing .346/.461/.748 with 25 home runs and a 45/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games, showing few if any holes in his offensive game with power, contact, and plate discipline in spades. He also slashed .311/.374/.500 on the Cape and has slashed .304/.438/.687 in SEC play, so there is little worry that he'll produce at the next level. With a strong arm but not much foot speed, he'll be a serviceable right fielder with most of his value tied to his bat, which projects to have middle of the order impact. He'll get drafted somewhere between the third and sixth picks. Across the country, Arizona State's Hunter Bishop has improved his stock more than perhaps any player this season, jumping from a day two pick to the top half of the first round. After slashing .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore for the Sun Devils, he busted out with 22 home runs, a .356/.482/.792 slash line, and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games as a junior, showing some of the best raw power in the class along the way. Despite adding a ton of power, Bishop cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and bumped up his walk rate by more than 50%, which bodes well for his ability to continue to tap that power at the next level. His strikeout rate is still a little bit high (22.3%) and he has come down to Earth a bit in Pac-12 play (.273/.403/.555), so he's safely behind Bleday in my book, he's easily the better defender and could stay in center field. He likely cracks the top ten picks and there have been a lot of rumors about the Rangers taking him eighth overall, though I believe I may be the low guy on him.

Tier II: Kameron Misner
Don't take Misner's spot by himself here to mean anything about him specifically; there really are no other college outfielders who are close to his skill level, with Bleday and Bishop being much better and the Tier III guys being well behind him. Missouri's Kameron Misner could have pushed his way into Tier I with a good run through SEC play, but his overall .287/.443/.485 line with ten home runs and a 56/54 strikeout to walk ratio includes just a .222/.353/.315 line against advanced SEC pitching. That makes Misner a bit of a conundrum, as he missed most of SEC play as well as summer ball last season with a broken foot. He's a great athlete with power, speed, and a strong arm, and he hit well last year (.360/.497/.576) in his 34 games as a sophomore, mostly against non-SEC pitching. Misner's great outfield defense will buy his bat plenty of time, and his power and high walk rate are definitely there, but he's just unproven against higher level pitching and the holes in his swing might get exposed. He has the ceiling of a #5 hitter with a strong glove and arm, but he comes with more risk than is usual for players of his profile. He looks to be drafted in the back half of the first round.

Tier III: Matt Wallner, Kyle Stowers, Will Robertson, Zach Watson, Dominic Fletcher
While Misner is alone in that second tier, there are plenty of bats in the third tier and they're all a little different. Matt Wallner, a two-way player out of Southern Miss, has had an up and down season after slashing .351/.474/.618 with 16 home runs and a 53/48 strikeout to walk ratio last year. This year, he's slashing .315/.431/.665 with 19 home runs and a 43/40 strikeout to walk ratio through 53 games, the only real differences between this year and last year being less consistency, a bit more power, and a lower batting average on balls in play. He's 6'5" and his left handed swing is geared more for power than for contact, which has worked against C-USA pitching but gave him so-so results in the Cape Cod League (.250/.343/.417, 24/8 K/BB). He's far from a guarantee to hit at the next level, but he has shown enough game power and plate discipline to warrant a second round selection and he could pop 30 home runs annually in the majors. Some teams were also looking at him as a potential reliever, but arm issues have kept him from pitching this season and he has stated that he prefers to hit. That arm does play well in the outfield, giving him some defensive value in right field. Over at Stanford, Kyle Stowers has had an interesting run. In 2018, Stowers slashed .286/.383/.512 with ten home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio, then he hit six home runs and slashed .326/.361/.565 on the Cape over the summer. This year seems like more of the same with seven home runs and a .293/.365/.506 line, but his 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio means means that he cut his strikeout rate in half. That's especially interesting given that the length in his swing has led to swing and miss concerns. It's hard to say what Stowers' ultimate projection is, because he looks like more of a fourth outfielder with his solid power but potentially low on-base percentages, but the production on the Cape and this year's reduced strikeout rate could mean that he'll get to his power more often than we might think. He looks like a third rounder, but he could sneak into the back of the second. Creighton's Will Robertson is also hard to project, with his eleven home runs, .301/.390/.554 slash line, and 37/19 strikeout to walk ratio making for another solid season in Omaha. He has left handed power and it played up on the Cape (4 HR, .300/.380/.435), making evaluators hopeful that his lack of tough competition in the Big East will be less of an issue. He could be a middle of the order hitter if everything plays up as hoped, though his aggressive approach against mediocre Big East pitching does give him some risk. He also doesn't have much defensive value as a decent left fielder, so the pressure will be on his bat. He looks like a third rounder. Zach Watson is a very well known name in the SEC, as he has started for LSU for three years now and has produced every season. This year has been more of the same, as he slashed .317/.367/.472 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 50 games. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year and could have been a second or third round pick after slashing a nearly identical .308/.366/.479, but he wanted to return to Baton Rouge and he's back in roughly the same spot this year. He has a line drive bat and hits the ball very hard for someone listed at just 165 pounds, but his aggressive approach limits his walks and his line drive swing limits his power. Offensively, he has the tools to work with to become a solid piece (though he'll also turn 22 a few weeks after the draft), but his real value is on defense, where he is a very good center fielder and can track down almost any ball hit in his direction. Because he hasn't made any progress over last year's numbers, he looks like a third round pick. Arkansas's Dominic Fletcher is a fairly similar player to Watson, slashing .320/.383/.551 with ten home runs and a 48/22 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games this season. Fletcher, like Watson, makes plenty of contact against SEC pitching and has a long track record of starting for his team, though he's also listed at 5'9" and that limits his overall offensive outlook. He has a strong glove, though not quite to the same level as Watson's, and that buys his bat some slack, and he's also considered to have a strong feel for the game that will help him maximize his tools. Improving his plate discipline should be a good start, and he also looks like a third round pick.

Others: Bryant Packard, Matt Gorski, Gabe Holt, Jordan Brewer