2020 Draft Review: San Diego Padres

1-8: OF Robert Hassell III, Independence HS (TN)
CBA-34: RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS (TX)
2-45: OF Owen Caissie, Notre Dame HS (ON)
3-80: RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia
4-109: RHP Levi Thomas, Troy
5-139: LHP Jagger Haynes, West Columbus HS (NC)

A year ago, the Padres became the first team ever to hand out a $3 million signing bonus in the third round, drawing high school outfielder Hudson Head away from an Oklahoma commitment with first round money. This year, they broke their own record by giving Cole Wilcox $3.3 million in the same round, and that defined their draft class even more so than first rounder Robert Hassell. That meant htey had to go under slot for each of their other five picks, and they did so in typical Padres fashion by four high schoolers. Did it work out for them? In order to figure that out, I'd pretend Wilcox was the competitive balance pick and "bump" Justin Lange and Owen Caissie down a round, making Lange the "second round" pick and Caissie the "third round" pick. In that case, I think they came away with a solid class, though it comes with a lot of risk. Robert Hassell is about as low risk as it gets for a high schooler but it's still an under slot high schooler in the top ten. Lange and Caissie are extreme boom/bust types even by high school standards, as is fifth rounder and deep sleeper Jagger Haynes. Wilcox is still kind of boom/bust for a college pitcher, especially given his massive signing bonus, leaving Levi Thomas as the only true "safe bet" type in the fourth round. It's an interesting class for sure, with a ton of upside if things work out.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-8: OF Robert Hassell III, Independence HS, TN (my rank: 17)
As you can tell by my ranking, there are quite a few players I would have taken ahead of Hassell at this point in the draft, but that's more an endorsement of the immense talent in this class than it is an indictment of Hassell's talent. It also helps that the Padres got him significantly under slot. Coming out of the Nashville area, he has the best hit tool in the prep class, showing the ability to make hard contact against even the best pitching he faced. He can be a little bit streaky at times, but for the most part, he has simply dominated his competition. Hassell brings an extremely professional approach to the plate, easily identifying fastballs from breaking balls and balls from strikes, and his clean, smooth left handed swing enables him to execute hard contact all over the field. He's hit over power and will likely always be that way, as he's pretty skinny at 6'2" and doesn't look like he'll be able to add a ton of bulk. There were times over the summer when he tried to tap into more power, but that often came at the expense of his prodigious hit tool, and scouts believe he'll be best off allowing his home runs to come naturally. I think there is a chance he could hit 20+ home runs a year in the majors at his ceiling, but I think he's more likely to fall in the 10-20 range and derive his value from very high on-base percentages. He's a good runner who makes all the plays in the outfield, and he'll likely end up either a decent/playable center fielder or an above average right fielder. With an August birthday, he's a bit old for the class, but the Padres don't seem to mind that. He's been compared to Mariners star prospect Jarred Kelenic, who had a very similar profile out of high school and who was also old for his class, though Kelenic has a bit more power and Hassell is a bit faster. The top recruit in another loaded Vanderbilt class, he instead signed with the Padres for $4.3 million, which was about $880,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

CBA-34: RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS, TX (my rank: 68)
There's something I have to get out of the way first, and it's going to pain some Spanish speaking or Spanish-familiar Padres fans out in San Diego, but it's not pronounced "yawn-oh" like it's supposed to be. Llano, Texas is instead said like "LAN-oh," rhyming with "piano." Sorry about that. Anyways, Justin Lange is all about projection. He's a 6'4" right hander from the small town of Llano in the heart of Texas, and most importantly, he can touch 100 miles per hour. A year ago, he was sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and looked like he needed to go to school to fill out, but his velocity has shot up since then and he was sitting comfortably in the mid to upper 90's this spring. And it's not as if he suddenly started throwing as hard as he could – the velocity comes very easily, as his loose arm cranks it up with a pretty natural motion. Now, how well he repeats that delivery is another question. I'm going to repeat the language I used in his pre-draft profile in saying that he's really just "flinging" the ball. His arm works extremely naturally at these high speeds, but in the end, he's really just letting it all fly and flinging the baseball in the general direction of the plate. He has well below average command at this point, and the Padres will have their work cut out for them in streamlining his delivery and getting his arm moving in the same, repeatable slot every pitch. They'll also have to help develop his secondaries, as his slider can flash solid average but is typically more of a fringy pitch, and it's been known to miss the zone by feet rather than inches. There's a changeup as well, but it's also well below average. Right now, the Padres are buying his three big plusses: size, velocity, and naturally loose arm. Everything else will have to be crafted, and that includes refining his delivery, bringing some depth out of his slider, and building up his changeup. It's a really interesting upside play that also carries extreme risk. Lange signed away from his Dallas Baptist commitment for $2 million, which was about $150,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.

2-45: OF Owen Caissie, Notre Dame HS, ON (my rank: 123)
The third straight high schooler to start off this draft, Owen Caissie probably has more in common with Justin Lange than he does with fellow prep outfielder Robert Hassell. Hailing from the Toronto area, he was also the first Canadian selected this year. He's a big dude at 6'4", with plenty of projection in his sturdy frame that could have him looking like a beast in a few years. He channels his strength into big raw power that plays as above average right now, but he should grow into true plus power pretty easily given the projection in his frame. On the flip side, though, he hasn't been as consistent with his hit tool, showing a significant amount of swing and miss in his game. Pessimists see the high bust-risk associated with strikeout-prone prep hitters and might be turned off by Caissie. However, optimists see a swing that doesn't put the barrel in the zone for very long and think some simple mechanical tweaks could get him up to an average or better hit tool. Given that he's also young for the class, just turning 18 a few days before I released this article here in July, he has more time to iron out that tool and it has been shown that age matters for high schoolers. An above average runner with a plus arm, he will probably slow down a little bit as he matures, and profiles as an above average right fielder down the line. There is extremely high risk associated with this pick, but the reward is very high as well and Caissie could develop into a 30 home run bat. Committed to Michigan, he instead signed with the Padres for $1.2 million, which was about $450,000 below slot.

3-80: RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (my rank: 22)
The Padres saved about $1.48 million in bonus pool space by going under slot in each of the first three rounds, and that enabled them to give Cole Wilcox $3.3 million, which was halfway between the slot values at picks #19 and #20, more than quadruple his own slot value, and just a million shy of what they gave Robert Hassell at eighth overall. Wilcox was a big name coming out of Heritage High School in northwestern Georgia in 2018 and could have easily gone in the first round if signable, but he was dead set on attending Georgia for school. Two years later, his stock was in a very similar place in the mid to late first round, but signability was again a factor and that knocked him down to the third round. The Padres are ecstatic to pick him up after he showed huge statistical progress from his freshman year (4.07 ERA, 64/38 K/BB in 59.2 IP) to his draft-eligible sophomore year (1.57 ERA, 32/2 K/BB in 23 IP), and while he didn't have to go up against the SEC this year, he did put up seven shutout innings with eleven strikeouts and no walks against a solid Georgia Tech lineup on February 29th.  He's a really big 6'5" right hander who is still growing into his body a bit, and he comes with equally big stuff. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can reach as high as 98 with some run and sink, and he adds in two offspeed pitches in a slider and a changeup. The slider can be inconsistent, but it's usually at least average at worst and can flash plus when he really snaps it down. The changeup, meanwhile, is more consistently above average and gets great sink, and together he has three pitches that have a good chance to be true plus. In the past, he's had a hard time repeating his delivery consistently and that impacted his ability to throw strikes. He showed some modest improvement in that regard in 2020, and while his control (ability to throw strikes in general) is still well ahead of his command (ability to hit spots within the zone), he's better than he used to be, when he showed neither. As Wilcox continues to grow into his huge frame, I think his youth is a big positive in his profile, as his July birthday makes him old for a sophomore but younger than most of the juniors he went up against in the draft process. With three great pitches and improving command, Wilcox has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher for the Padres down the line, or a high level reliever if he never gets that command fully figured out. The $3.3 million signing bonus was more than $2.5 million above slot value in the third round but the Padres made it work. Pre-draft profile here.

4-109: RHP Levi Thomas, Troy (unranked)
Here is an interesting money saver. Levi Thomas was part of the same Cullman High School rotation and graduating class as 2017 Reds third rounder Jacob Heatherly, but he headed across Alabama to attend Troy for school. After a strong freshman season (1.96 ERA, 56/16 K/BB) and a solid sophomore year (4.24 ERA, 87/31 K/BB), he broke out with a huge start to his junior campaign with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. He doesn't have the world's loudest stuff, but he absolutely demolished the Northern Kentucky and Louisiana Tech lineups (11 shutout innings, 25 K's, 3 baserunners) and continued to hold his own against #1 Florida and a stronger Michigan State lineup (12 IP, 1 ER, 17 K's) nonetheless. He's a dogged competitor that will do anything to get you out, something Pitching Ninja captured in this Twitter thread. Stuff-wise, his fastball sits in the low 90's but gets great spin rates that enable it to play much faster than its velocity, and he adds a good slider that can flash above average at times. He shows solid average command, but his willingness to attack the zone and challenge hitters makes that aspect of his game play up as well. On the shorter side at 5'11", Thomas will need to prove he's durable enough to start, and he'll also have to work on improving a fringy changeup. If he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball and slider could tick up and his mentality would fit great. Given how deep this system is, I think there is more of a chance of that happening than not and I'm very interested to see what he could do in that role. Thomas' $80,000 signing bonus was $453,000 below slot.

5-139: LHP Jagger Haynes, West Columbus HS, NC (unranked)
The Padres have some history with prep lefties from Columbus County in rural southeastern North Carolina – MacKenzie Gore grew up in Whiteville, just twenty minutes down the road from where Haynes went to high school in Cerro Gordo. He's a very projectable 6'3" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds in a good breaking ball from an athletic, loose delivery. Right now, there are a lot of moving parts with long arm action that will need to be cleaned up a bit, but they key is the looseness and the Padres don't think they'll have a problem with that. He adds a solid breaking ball and a relatively advanced changeup for a high school pitcher, and with a September birthday, he was the youngest pitcher selected in the entire draft. There are a lot of rough edges to refine here, but San Diego is extremely high on this kid and they're envisioning an impact starting pitcher down the line. He's a nice sleeper to watch here at the end of the draft. Committed to UNC, Haynes instead signed for $300,000, which was $98,000 below slot.

Undrafted: C Adam Kerner, San Diego (unranked)
The Padres spent all six picks on players east of the Rocky Mountains, but in the undrafted free agent market, they came back home and signed Adam Kerner out of the University of San Diego. A product of Oaks Christian High School up in Thousand Oaks, he is a glove-first catcher who will definitely stick. A good athlete, he moves really well back there and shows a plus arm, giving him a very high baseline of value in a world where good catchers are scarce. He's an okay hitter who has slashed .305/.379/.472 with ten home runs and a 72/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 career games for the Toreros, showing a solid average hit tool and a little bit of sneaky power, though he doesn't draw a lot of walks. It's probably a little bit light to start, even with his glove, but it's a really nice backup profile, especially in the UDFA market.

Undrafted: RHP Chase Walter, Western Carolina (unranked)
Walter is an absolute mountain of a man, standing at a listed 6'7" and 260 pounds. The Atlanta-area native spent his college career in the starting rotation for Western Carolina, where he has missed a ton of bats (212 K's in 195.1 IP) but also missed the strike zone just as frequently (116 walks in same span). For that reason, he probably fits better in the bullpen in pro ball, especially in a deep Padres system, but he'll still be a project. Walter sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 96 as a starter, adding in a hard slider that misses plenty of bats. Bumping him to the bullpen could help him focus on improving his command a bit more and also see that fastball tick up to the mid 90's more consistently, which plays well below average right now. Even getting up to fringe-average could make him a very useful bullpen arm.

2020 Draft Profile: Justin Lange

RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS [TX]
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 9/11/2001.  Commitment: Dallas Baptist.

Deep in the heart of Central Texas, the small town of Llano (population 3,232 and pronounced LAN-oh) is known around the state as the home of Cooper's Old Time Pit Bar-B-Que, but naturally it hasn't produced many professional sports prospects. Justin Lange is changing that in a big way with a fastball that rivals the other small town Texan right hander in this class, Refugio's (population 2,890) Jared Kelley. Down in South Texas, Kelley has a strong argument as the top high school pitcher in the class, but he's significantly more refined than Lange, who might need more development than any other high school pitcher drafted this year.

Lange actually isn't too dissimilar to the last profile in this series, Miami Christian High's Alejandro Rosario, in that his best asset by far is his big fastball. Lange has always been about projection, but with a fastball that sat around 90 over the summer, he wasn't much of a prospect until very recently. His velocity started ticking up in the fall, then he came out of the gate in the spring sitting in the mid to upper 90's and touching 100, vaulting himself up prospect lists. Lange produces this velocity with relative ease, unfurling his extremely projectable 6'4" frame to fling the ball forward with a very natural, athletic delivery.

Now, I say "fling" because that's probably the most accurate word, certainly more so than "pitch." Lange has virtually no command of the pitch, more just letting it fly at incredible speeds in the general direction of the plate. He will need significant, significant refinement in that area, learning to control his body and pitch with intention against more advanced hitters. The fastball is already such a tremendous pitch, with great riding life in addition to its velocity, that he'll probably never need pinpoint command to be successful, but he will need to locate regardless. His breaking ball is also a work in progress, a mid to upper 80's slider that stands out much more for its velocity than its life. If he wants any chance to start, that pitch is going to need to leap forward at least a full grade, perhaps more. He'll also need to add a changeup, something he hasn't done much to this point.

For all of his rough edges, there is reason to believe Lange can figure it out. For one, the nuances of the game are often coachable, but you can't teach someone to throw 100. Additionally, coming from a very rural area about an hour and a half northwest of Austin, Lange hasn't had as many of the same opportunities to work out in those expensive training facilities you get in the suburbs, so pro coaching could do him wonders. Even though he doesn't offer much aside from velocity at this point, he looks so natural on the mound that you have to be excited about his upside. I haven't heard anything about him being a particularly tough sign, and his talent likely puts him somewhere in the second round range, perhaps to a team with multiple early picks who can absorb some of the risk. The upside here is about as high as you can imagine, while the risk is about that high as well.

Pitching in the fall