Over the past few years, the Blue Jays have transformed their farm system from more or less average to one of the best in the game by simply not having many busts. They have had a ton of guys break out over the past few seasons, and of course, none bigger than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the best pure bat in recent memory. Vladimir Guerrero, Craig Biggio, Dante Bichette, and Jeff Conine all have kids in this system, giving the system the best bloodlines in baseball. There is more hitting talent than pitching talent here, but they're definitely not short on arms and Blue Jays fans have plenty of reasons to be excited.
Affiliates: AAA Buffalo Bisons, AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, High A Dunedin Blue Jays, Class A Lansing Lugnuts, Short Season Vancouver Canadians, rookie level Bluefield Blue Jays, and complex level GCL and DSL Blue Jays
The Headliner: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
19 year old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (you might have heard of his father) is the best prospect in baseball, and unless you are absolutely enamored with Fernando Tatis Jr.'s upside, it's not really that close. Guerrero burst onto the scene in 2017 by slashing .323/.425/.485 with more walks than strikeouts in Class A and High A as just an 18 year old, then established himself as the best prospect in all of baseball by slashing .381/.437/.636 with 20 home runs and a 38/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 games, mostly at AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo, in 2018. Those are crazy numbers regardless of the context, but Guerrero was a 19 year old in the highest levels of the minors and showed elite contact, elite power, and elite plate discipline all along. This is a true middle of the order bat, one that could produce 30-40 home runs per season with on-base percentages over .400; those are MVP numbers. Defensively, he's mediocre at third base but has worked hard to remain at the position, and he could be adequate there in the long run with a little luck. However, if he has to move to first base or back to the outfield, he is such a gifted hitter that it won't be a problem. Guerrero, who turns 20 in March, will likely spend the first few weeks of the 2019 season "working on his defense" (i.e. postponing his free agency by a year) but once he is called up towards the end of April, he'll be the frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year Award.
High Minors Hitters: C Danny Jansen, C Reese McGuire, OF Anthony Alford, 1B Rowdy Tellez, SS Bo Bichette, 2B Cavan Biggio, and SS Santiago Espinal
Take away Guerrero, the best prospect in baseball, and the Blue Jays are still very deep in the upper minors with plenty of potential bats that could be anywhere from usable to impactful. 23 year old Danny Jansen is one of the top catching prospects in the game, following up his breakout 2017 by slashing .275/.390/.473 with 12 home runs and a 49/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AAA Buffalo, then slashing .247/.347/.432 with three home runs in a 31 game stint in the majors. He's average defensively, but with his great plate discipline and ability to find the barrel regularly, he should be able to put it together and be a full-time starting catcher as soon as this season. In fact, if the Blue Jays don't make any moves before Opening Day, there won't be much competition for the starting catcher's spot come the beginning of the season, and Jansen could win it outright. He won't be a middle of the order hitter, but he should still be a net-positive in the lineup and that's plenty for a catcher. 23 year old Reese McGuire, the first round pick (14th overall) from the same 2013 draft that produced Jansen in the 16th round, is Jansen's primary competition behind the plate after slashing .233/.312/.339 with seven home runs and a 77/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at Buffalo, followed by a .290/.333/.581 line with a pair of home runs in 14 major league games. McGuire is clearly the superior defender, but his bat is also clearly behind Jansen's and he looks primed for the back-up role. Together, he and Jansen will make a good tandem behind the plate in the classic bat-first starter, glove-first backup mold. Out in the outfield, 24 year old Anthony Alford has seen his development stall in the upper levels, and he slashed .238/.314/.339 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 120/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Dunedin and Buffalo, also slashing .105/.190/.105 in 13 major league games. He's a speedy center fielder whose defense has kept him afloat in this stacked system, and when his bat is going, he looks like a future starter. However, that bat has been very inconsistent as he has lost control of the strike zone from time to time, and at this point he looks more like a competent fourth outfielder than a future leadoff man. However, when he's going right, he can still be a very valuable player for the Blue Jays and string together time in the starting lineup here and there. 23 year old Rowdy Tellez, the 30th round pick from that 2013 draft that produced Jansen and McGuire, slashed .270/.340/.425 with 13 home runs and a 74/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at Buffalo, then got hot in his first taste of major league action and slashed .314/.329/.614 with four home runs in 23 games for the Blue Jays. He's a big guy at 6'4" who hits for good power and can get the bat on the ball consistently, though as a first baseman with mediocre defense, he'll have to continue to hit to earn playing time in the majors. 2019 will be the year we find out whether he can provide the requisite big numbers for the position, though to me, he looks more like a platoon bat. 20 year old Bo Bichette, the son of Dante Bichette, followed up his huge 2017 (.362/.423/.565, 14 HR, 22 SB) with another big 2018, slashing .286/.343/.453 with eleven home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a 101/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143 games at AA New Hampshire, playing the whole season at 20 years old. He's a second baseman with a great bat, one that should produce high batting averages in the majors while hitting at least 15-20 home runs and 30-40 doubles per season. He has fantastic bat control and can find the barrel as consistently as anybody, enabling him to employ a big swing and maximize what power he has in his six foot frame. Defensively, there's a chance he could stick at shortstop, though he's just alright there and might be able to provide more value at a different position. 23 year old Cavan Biggio, son of Craig Biggio, had a breakout year this year and slashed .252/.388/.499 with 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 148/100 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at New Hampshire. Biggio is a power hitter with an extremely patient approach that allows him to draw tons of walks, but which also leads to a fair amount of strikeouts. If the strikeouts turn out to be a problem at the next level, he might end up just a utility infielder, but if he can keep control of the strike zone, he profiles as an offensive-minded second baseman who could pop 20 home runs per season and draw enough walks to give him more than respectable on-base percentages, which adds up to a very valuable player. Lastly, 24 year old Santiago Espinal, acquired from the Red Sox for Steve Pearce, slashed .297/.356/.444 with ten home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 67/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games between High A and AA. He's a little bit old for a prospect who just made it out of High A, but he brings a good glove at shortstop and backs it up with a line drive bat and an advanced approach at the plate. He provides enough value on defense that there isn't too much pressure on his bat, and the fact that he could profile as a useful hitter in the major leagues makes him a prospect worth tracking. We'll have to see how he holds up over a full season in the upper minors but he could be a strong utility infielder or a fringe-average starting shortstop.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: SS Kevin Smith, SS Logan Warmoth, OF Griffin Conine, SS Ronny Brito, SS Jordan Groshans, OF Cal Stevenson, and SS Orelvis Martinez
Lower in the minors, the Blue Jays don't quite have impact prospects like Guerrero and Bichette, but there is still some tremendous upside when you get down to the very bottom of the system. They do, though, have a ton of prospects who could potentially play shortstop (joining Bo Bichette and Santiago Espinal from the previous section), and that's one of the hardest positions to check off in a system. Up in the middle of the system, 22 year old Kevin Smith represents the best in the pack after slashing .302/.358/.528 with 25 home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 121/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin. Most of the production came at the lower level (.355/.407/.639) but he still held his own at the higher level (.274/.332/.468), and that he hit this well at all is a welcome sign for the Blue Jays. Toronto took him in the fourth round out of Maryland in 2017, where he posted just a .323 on-base percentage as a junior and struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances, showing raw power in batting practice but struggling to prove he could be more than a one-trick pony with the bat. He still doesn't draw a ton of walks and he takes his fair share of strikeouts, but he has done a much better job of getting to his power in pro ball and he pushed his on-base percentage up to .358. Defensively, he's pretty good at shortstop and may be able to stick there, taking even more pressure off his bat and giving him a real chance to be a long term starter. To do that, of course, he'll have to continue to manage the strike zone as well as he has and continue to make adjustments. Meanwhile, 23 year old Logan Warmoth, the Jays' first round pick (22nd overall) in that same 2017 draft, has had the opposite experience in pro ball, seeing his great college numbers (.336/.404/.554 as a junior at UNC) drop significantly in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .249/.330/.317 with just one home run and a 73/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, mostly at Dunedin, continuing to put the bat on the ball at a decent clip and get on base but seeing his power completely evaporate. I wasn't a big fan of the pick at the time and now my worries about his bat are proving to be warranted, though finding the barrel a bit more in 2019 could turn his fortunes around. He's still a competent shortstop who would be an above average defender if moved to second base, so the defense does buy the bat some slack, but he does need to start hitting soon if he wants to remain relevant in this system. 21 year old Griffin Conine (son of Jeff Conine) had a shot at being a first round pick out of Duke in 2018, but his plate discipline fell apart in the spring and he slid to the Blue Jays in the second round (52nd overall), after which he slashed .243/.314/.430 with seven home runs and a 65/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, mostly at short season Vancouver. He has a ton of raw power from a very strong frame at 6'1", but his long swing and tendency to sell out for the power hurts his ability to get to it consistently. The Blue Jays will work with him to shorten that swing and ease up on the selling out, and if they can successfully help him improve in those areas without sacrificing power, Conine could be a legitimate impact bat. I was a big fan of his before his approach fell apart in the spring, so I really hope he can get back to where he was and potentially provide 30 homer power with solidly decent defense in right field. 19 year old Ronny Brito was acquired from the Dodgers for Russell Martin this offseason, having slashed .295/.359/.496 with 11 home runs and a 78/23 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and rookie ball in 2018. He's a slick fielding shortstop whose bat is supposedly behind his glove, but the power outburst in the Pioneer League showed that his upside is more than just that of a utility infielder. A successful transition to full season ball as a 20 year old in 2019 could sent Brito shooting up prospect lists, as good defensive shortstops who can hit are a rarity (except in this system, apparently). 19 year old Jordan Groshans was a first round pick (12th overall) out of a Houston area high school in 2018, and he slashed .296/.353/.446 with five home runs and a 37/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games between complex ball and rookie level Bluefield. He was much better in complex ball (.331/.390/.500) than in rookie ball (.182/.229/.273), but a big showing in the Appalachian League playoffs would have pushed that rookie ball slash line up to a much more respectable .268/.333/.411. Groshans is a legitimate hitter with power, some plate discipline, and the ability to barrel the ball up consistently, and when you combine that with the potential (although not guarantee) to stick at shortstop, he's a complete player. Like Brito, he could shoot up prospect lists with a strong transition to full season ball in 2019. 22 year old Cal Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona in 2018 and likely maxes out as a fourth outfielder, but he had such a great debut that he deserves a writeup. After signing, Stevenson slashed .369/.511/.523 with two home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a fantastic 24/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games between complex ball and Bluefield, showing a tremendous feel for the strike zone as well as the ability to get the bat on the ball virtually whenever he wanted to. At a skinny 5'10", he lacks power and will likely never develop much, but anybody who can get on base at a .500 rate in the minors (and steal 21 bases in 22 tries) is worth watching regardless of the power production, so 2019 will be very interesting when he plays against more age-appropriate competition. Lastly, 17 year old Orelvis Martinez has not played professionally yet, but he signed for $3.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in July and has tremendous upside. He has a quick, powerful swing that will need some tweaking, and his advanced feel for hitting could come together with that power potential to make him an all-around impact bat. Defensively, he's pretty good at shortstop but even if he has to move to third base eventually, he should be a net-positive on defense. Overall, he's completely unproven and has a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling, but at 17 years old he'll have plenty of time to do so and could be an all-around impact player if it all works out.
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Sean Reid-Foley, RHP David Paulino, RHP Trent Thornton, RHP T.J. Zeuch, RHP Hector Perez, and RHP Elvis Luciano
The Blue Jays aren't as deep in pitching as they are in hitting, but there are still plenty of arms near the top of the minors, some of which could turn into very productive, long-term starters. 23 year old Sean Reid-Foley is a 6'3" right hander out of Jacksonville who went 12-5 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 150/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings between AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo, and who then posted a 5.13 ERA and a 42/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 major league innings. He's a classic mid-rotation starter with a low to mid 90's fastball and a wide arrange of secondary pitches, none of which stick out as plus but all of which he mixes effectively. The command is fairly average, but when he's mixing his stuff well, SRF is tough to square up and he could be a very solid #3 or #4 starter in Toronto. 25 year old David Paulino has already made appearances for the Astros in 2016 and 2017, as well as the Blue Jays in 2018, but with just 42.2 total major league innings (5.48 ERA, 42/12 K/BB), he still qualifies as a prospect. His development has been choppy to say the least, as he has missed significant time with injuries throughout his career and was hit with an 80 game PED suspension in 2017, and in his seven minor league starts in 2018 he posted a 4.67 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 33/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings between AAA and complex ball rehab. He's a massive, 6'7" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball, a very good set of secondaries that produce swings and misses, and even pretty good command that helps it all play up. However, with all the injuries and the suspension, he hasn't been able to stay on the mound long enough to get any real traction (in eight pro seasons, he has never thrown more than 90 innings in one season), so there's a lot more risk associated with him than you'd expect given his profile. Paulino could be anything from a solid #3 starter to a middle reliever. 25 year old Trent Thornton is another former Astro, coming over this offseason for Aledmys Diaz, and he posted a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 122/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AAA. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a pair of swing and miss breaking balls, and with his good command, he should be major league ready on Opening Day. However, his changeup has never really materialized, making the rest of his stuff play down a hair, so the Blue Jays hope that access to new pitching coaches will help him get over the hump and go from back-end starter type to legitimate #3 or #4 guy. 23 year old T.J. Zeuch was the Blue Jays' first round pick (21st overall) in 2016 out of Pittsburgh, and he posted a 3.17 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 156.1 innings at High A Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2018. He's 6'7" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a full array of secondaries and making it work so far despite a low strikeout rate. Overall, I'm a bit worried about his transition to AAA and the majors in 2019 because the secondaries just haven't proven to be anything special yet, even with the slider standing out a bit as a go-to pitch. His ability to throw more than 150 innings in 2018 was a plus, but there's some reliever risk here if he can't take a step forward with either his secondaries or his average command. If he does take that step forward, he could be a #3 starter. 22 year old Hector Perez came over from the Astros with Paulino in the Roberto Osuna trade, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 133/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings between High A and AA in the two systems. He's a fireballer with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a solid set of breaking balls, generating tons of swings and misses despite mediocre command. That command is what has held him back so far, as his stuff is good enough to dominate upper-level hitters right now and is just a small step forward in consistency from dominating major leaguers as well. If he can learn to have even average command in addition to getting a little more consistent with his stuff, he's a potential #2 or #3 starter, but without adjustments he likely profiles as a hard-throwing reliever. Lastly, 18 year old Elvis Luciano has not pitched above rookie ball, but he's included in this section (rather than the low-minors section) for a very interesting reason. The Blue Jays selected him in the Rule 5 Draft, meaning that unless the Jays want to send him back to Kansas City, Luciano will have to break camp with the major league team and last the entire season in the majors. That will be a tough task for a teenager who just posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at the Royals' rookie ball affiliates, as he will completely bypass full season ball in such a way that would make Juan Soto proud. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but the rest of his game is raw (as you'd expect from an 18 year old) and he'll probably get hit hard in the majors. If he does stick, then the Blue Jays deserve a big pat on the back for adding a potential mid-rotation starter. Additionally, if he breaks camp with the team on Opening Day (lest he'd be sent back to the Royals), Luciano would not only become the first player born in 2000 to play in the majors, he'd beat out every 1999 player as well assuming that his new teammate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., spends the first few weeks of the season in AAA "working on his defense."
Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Nate Pearson, RHP Eric Pardinho, RHP Adam Kloffenstein, RHP Sean Wymer, and RHP/1B Andy McGuire
The Blue Jays aren't nearly as deep in low minors pitchers as they are in low minors hitters or even upper minors pitchers, though two arguably the two most exciting arms in the system are in this demographic. 22 year old Nate Pearson was a first round pick (28th overall) in 2017 out of a Florida junior college, though he missed the beginning of 2018 with back problems then fractured his forearm in his first start back, ending his season with two earned runs in 1.2 innings (10.80 ERA) at High A. Pearson is a fireballing 6'6" right hander with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider, though the rest of his game needs work. His control comes and goes and he hasn't developed a consistent changeup yet, and the lost season in 2018 didn't help. However, with his top tier arm strength, it's easy to envision him piling up the strikeouts as he moves through the minors just on his two main pitches, and developing either his command or his changeup could make him a mid-rotation starter; developing both could make him a #2 or even an ace. Even if he remains the pitcher he is today, Pearson has a high floor as a hard throwing reliever whose fastball could sit right around 100 in short stints, which could make him a set-up man or even a closer. We'll see what strides he makes in 2019. 18 year old Eric Pardinho burst onto the scene in rookie ball this season, posting a 2.88 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 64/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings with rookie level Bluefield. Essentially just a kid, he's listed at 5'10" and just 155 pounds, but the Brazilian righty might be the best prospect ever to come out of his country now that he throws in the low 90's and adds a great curveball, a developing changeup, and better command than you would expect from someone his age and with his background. This enabled him to dominate the Appalachian League at just 17 years old, and he'll spend the whole 2019 season at just 18 years old as he transitions to full season ball and really shows us what he's made of. It's very early, but Pardinho (who was born in 2001 if you want to feel old) has ace upside. 18 year old Adam Kloffenstein was actually high school teammates with Jordan Groshans (see low minors hitters section), and now they're teammates in the Blue Jays system after Groshans was drafted 12th overall and Kloffenstein came off the board in the third round (88th overall) from Magnolia High School near Houston. Kloffenstein is a 6'5" righty who threw just two innings in complex ball this year (no earned runs, one hit, two walks, four strikeouts), bringing a low 90's fastball and a full array of secondaries to the table, all of which he commands reasonably well. He's obviously young and unproven, but Kloffenstein has a classic mid-rotation starter's profile if he can sharpen his command just a bit more, and for a high school pitcher, he really doesn't have too many adjustments he needs to make. Expect him to be a quick riser despite his age (he turns 19 at the end of the 2019 season). 21 year old Sean Wymer was the Jays' fourth round pick out of TCU in 2018 (ironically where Kloffenstein was committed to pitch collegiately), and he posted a respectable 4.84 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 34/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings at short season Vancouver after he signed. Wymer is a 6'1" righty whose command is ahead of his stuff, working in the low 90's and adding a full array of secondary pitches, none of which stand out. He didn't really being starting until his junior year at TCU, working as a reliever his first two seasons, so I think it will be interesting how pro coaching helps him continue that transition from reliever to starter. If it goes well, he could be a #4 or #5 guy, and he could still be useful as a long reliever if he is pushed back to the bullpen. Lastly, 24 year old Andy McGuire played in the same high school baseball program as me in 2012 and 2013, and he earns mention here for that as well as for his uniqueness as a prospect. McGuire was actually considered a second round talent for the 2013 draft, but he attended Texas instead and had a roller coaster of a career that saw him switch from infielder to pitcher, transfer out, transfer back in, sit out a season, get cut from the team, and finally make it back onto the roster as a fifth year senior in 2018. He played so well in 2018 that he earned a 28th round selection from the Blue Jays, who sent him to Bluefield as a two-way player. He slashed .275/.431/.375 with an 11/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games as a hitter, and he also posted a 3.09 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings as a pitcher. Having turned 24 during the offseason, he's certainly not young as far as prospects go, but it's always interesting to have a two-way player in the minors and he has the upside as either a middle reliever on the mound or a utility/bench bat.
