2022 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies employed a bit of an odd draft strategy. There are other players I would have reached for first, but I don't really mind them reaching down the board for Gabriel Hughes given that they saved nearly a million dollars off slot value. What's odd is that they went for such a massive discount early despite having both a compensation pick and a competitive balance pick to play with, and then they never actually spent all that money they saved. In fact, they only borrowed six figures above slot value twice, once with competitive balance pick Jordan Beck ($147,700 above) and once with second rounder Jackson Cox ($304,700 above). That means they left $400,000 on the table despite the fact that the draft is the single most cost-effective way to acquire talent. Not a good look. They held four of the first fifty picks, and while they brought in some nice talent, I'm a bit underwhelmed by what they brought in there. Starting in the third round, they got a little more creative and I liked what they did with those rounds 3-5 picks. Interestingly, even though they left an early fifth round pick's worth of bonus pool money on the table, they gave numerous bonuses that were just slightly above slot value, often by less than $10,000. Just an odd draft all around.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-10: RHP Gabriel Hughes, Gonzaga. My rank: #24.
Slot value: $4.98 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($983,000 below slot value).
So Gabriel Hughes is probably not a top ten talent in this draft (you can see I have him closer to the back of the first round on my board at #24), and the Rockies recognized that by giving him closer to the slot value for the 16th pick, saving nearly a million dollars in the process. I find it extremely odd that they didn't redeploy that money, but for Hughes' sake, that's neither here nor there. In Hughes, the Rockies get a native son of the Rocky Mountains who grew up in the Boise suburb of Eagle, Idaho and attended, aptly, Rocky Mountain High School. He gradually built his stock throughout his time at Gonzaga and broke out as a junior, where he posted a 3.21 ERA and a 138/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 innings. He was overused in Spokane, throwing at least six innings in all fifteen of his starts and regularly climbing well over one hundred pitches, so he tired later in the season and allowed four, four, and six runs over his final three starts to bump his ERA from 2.44 to 3.21 in that span. When Hughes is on, he's untouchable. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and regularly gets up to 97 with some hop to it, while his slider comes in with sharp, two plane break and his changeup represents a third solid pitch. Previously noted for having below average command, he looked solid average in that regard at times during the season but is probably closer to fringe-average for now. On top of his loud stuff, the 6'4" righty is a very good athlete that gets down the mound well with good extension, giving hope that he should end up with at least average command in time. Hughes is very young for a college junior, only turning 21 in August, and he has also been noted for his intense competitiveness on the mound and strong makeup and work ethic. He's a very smart kid that knows what he needs to do to get better, then will do everything he can to deploy it on the mound and be the best he can be. If he can refine his command a little bit and build up his durability, he has a chance to be a frontline starter and one of the best in this draft class.

1C-31: OF Sterlin Thompson, Florida. My rank: #52.
Slot value: $2.43 million. Signing bonus: $2.43 million.
There was a glut of college bats, especially college outfielders, in this range of the draft, and that's why Sterlin Thompson fell out of my top fifty. Regardless, he's a very solid player who has a chance to be an all-around contributor in Colorado. Potentially a casualty of the five round draft in 2020, he reached campus at Florida for the 2021 season and showed well enough as a freshman to put his name into third round consideration for the 2022 draft. In 2022, he came out looking more physical and more explosive, and the result was a .354/.443/.563 slash line, eleven home runs, and a 47/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games that pushed him into the compensation round. Thompson lacks a carrying tool, aside from a great baseball name, but does a lot of things very well. As he's filled out his 6'4" frame and channeled that into his powerful left handed swing, he's begun to tap above average power in games that should play with wood bats. He makes plenty of contact and has cleaned up his swing as well, keeping his strikeouts down and handling premium velocity well in the SEC. That looks like a potential 20-25 home run bat with solid on-base percentages, and playing home games at Coors Field could have him approaching thirty home runs a year at peak. The Ocala, Florida native isn't quite fast enough to play center field, but he's a solid athlete that can handle himself in either corner outfield spot and he's also seen some time at second base if the Rockies really want to expand his versatility. It's not necessarily a future star profile, but one that has a very good chance to be a very solid regular and is trending in the right direction. He's slashing .300/.370/.450 with one home run and a 14/2 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games in the Arizona Complex League.

CBA-38: OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee. My rank: #51.
Slot value: $2.05 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million ($147,700 above slot value).
Jordan Beck, like Sterlin Thompson, was a casualty on my list of that glut of college bats, with both falling towards the back end of that tier. The Rockies, however, have to be thrilled to land Beck here after he had been mocked to them frequently at the tenth overall pick. I always thought that was a little rich and perhaps Beck was a bit overhyped throughout the draft cycle, but I doubt Colorado expected he would be available to them not only at their second pick at #31, but at their third pick at #38. He has gradually built his stock at Tennessee and was right in the middle of the Volunteers' mid-season run as the best team in the country, slashing .298/.391/.595 with 18 home runs and a 62/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. After striking out in over 20% of his plate appearances in 2021, he came out of the gate hot in 2022 and showed much better control of the strike zone, though those swing and miss concerns crept back up throughout the season and he finished with almost the exact same strikeout rate as last season. He shows off plus raw power to all fields from a short, quick uppercut, with great feel for the barrel that enables him to make a ton of hard contact. He chased a lot in 2021 but was a bit better in that regard in 2022, but his steep swing path still led to swings and misses in the zone and that may continue to be the case in pro ball. The good news is that when Beck does hit the ball, he hits it hard and does damage, and at Coors Field that's a great trait to have. While the North Alabama native doesn't have Thompson's hit tool, he's a better runner that does have an outside chance to play center field and would slot very well in right field with his plus arm. Like much of his Tennessee teammates, Beck is also noted as an intense competitor. He's off to a hot start in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .371/.476/.571 with a home run and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio through eleven games.

2-50: RHP Jackson Cox, Toutle Lake HS [WA]. My rank: #89.
Slot value: $1.55 million. Signing bonus: $1.85 million ($304,700 above slot value).
The Rockies' largest over slot bonus of the draft came in the second round, when they gave Jackson Cox more than $300,000 extra to steer clear of an Oregon commitment and instead head out to Denver. Like the three players drafted ahead of him in this class, he has been a well-known name throughout the cycle that really shined in the spring to continue to build his stock. Cox sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and bumped 98 this spring, a significant increase from where he sat over the summer. His slider is his best pitch, with massive spin rates and nasty late bite that make it a true plus pitch that will continue to miss bunches of bats in pro ball. There's a solid changeup in there as well, giving him a strong three pitch mix to run it out there as a starter. The 6'1" righty does come with some relief risk, however, as he has had inconsistent command in the past (though it was better this spring even as his stuff ticked up) and doesn't have the most athletic delivery, with a short stride and a high release. It's hard to find his combination of fastball velocity and breaking ball quality outside the first round, especially when they can hold the strike zone for the most part, so the Rockies are very excited to bring him into their system.

3-88: LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami. My rank: #60.
Slot value: $713,300. Signing bonus: $775,000 ($61,700 above slot value).
Carson Palmquist is a fun one, and probably my favorite of their picks this year. He has dominated throughout his time at Miami, and in 2022 made the jump to the rotation with a 2.89 ERA and a 118/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 innings. Palmquist is the rare sidearm starting pitcher, with very few major league comps to work with aside from Chris Sale, which has been thrown around a lot. He touched 96 as a reliever last year, but hovered closer to 90 as a starter this spring, though the pitch did play above its velocity due to the funky slot giving it some rise. His best pitch is a plus slider with late, short bite to it, while his changeup gives him a third solid pitch to work with. Palmquist controls the zone extremely well with above average command, going right after hitters and keeping them off balance throughout the at bat. Evaluators watched the Fort Myers native's transition to the rotation very closely this spring to see if he could stick as a starter, and the answer seems to be a very resounding "maybe." His stuff did take a step back in those extended outings, but the results were still very strong and he ran an excellent 33% strikeout rate. He's built like a string bean at 6'3", with a narrow frame that seems unlikely to add much weight, so it's also not clear how durable he would be in a starter's role. We can point back to his averaging more than five innings and 87 pitches per start at Miami this spring, but once a week for sixteen weeks is still different than once every five days for six months. Given the command and his ability to make his stuff play above its velocity, I would absolutely run him out as a starter and see what happens. If he does have to go back to the bullpen, the idea of well commanded 93-95 from a sidearming lefty with a plus slider sounds very enticing. I like the opportunity with this pick, and they also have a chance to get creative in his development. He tossed a scoreless inning, walking two while striking out one, in his Arizona Complex League debut.

4-116: SS Ryan Ritter, Kentucky. My rank: #162.
Slot value: $522,900. Signing bonus: $530,000 ($7,100 above slot value).
Ryan Ritter is an interesting pick. I thought he might make more sense about a round or so later, but he's a great fit for the Rockies and I'm interested to see how this works out. Ritter spent a year at John A. Logan JC in Illinois before transferring to Kentucky, where he gradually built a solid mid day two case. In 2022, he slashed .283/.369/.469 with eight home runs and a 68/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, which is solid but unremarkable. Interestingly enough, he's a two year performer in the Cape Cod League, slashing a combined .292/.394/.435 with four home runs and a 48/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games between last summer and this summer, which certainly grabs my interest given the sample size. Ritter is solidly built but not overly physical at 6'2", using a quick uppercut to maximize his fringy raw power and make it play in games. When he elevates the ball, he elevates with authority, and Coors Field is the perfect place for a profile like that. He's an aggressive hitter that chases and also swings through some hittable pitches, giving him a below average hit tool, so managing the zone will be extremely important during his transition to pro ball. The Chicago-area native is a great defender with quick twitch athleticism at shortstop and a plus arm, so he'll almost certainly stick at the position and that will take significant pressure off his bat. I'm not sold on the overall profile that could end up with 40 hit, 45 power, but I'm definitely interested and at Coors he could hit 15-20 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, which should be enough to play every day given his defensive value. Like Jordan Beck, he's off to a hot start in the Arizona Complex League, slashing .348/.400/.739 with one home run and a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games.

5-146: RHP Connor Staine, Central Florida. My rank: #80.
Slot value: $390,800. Signing bonus: $400,00 ($9,200 above slot value).
The Rockies made another interesting pick here, grabbing a risky arm with a ton of upside in the fifth round. Connor Staine began his career at Maryland and transferred to UCF this year, where he got off to a red hot start with 33.2 consecutive scoreless innings to begin the season. That put his name squarely in the second round conversation, but back and blister issues derailed his season from there and he made just four more starts totaling just 10.2 innings after those eight consecutive scoreless starts to begin the season, finishing with a 1.87 ERA and a 51/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.1 innings. When he's healthy, he shows tremendous potential in the right development system. Staine sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has gotten up to 97, adding a full arsenal of solid offspeed stuff led by a slider that flashes above average. It's not the loudest stuff you've ever seen, but it's all plenty projectable and will play well in pro ball. The 6'4" righty is very athletic on the mound with a smooth delivery and a projectable frame, leading me to think there is plenty more in the tank. He fills up the strike zone pretty well but has never shown consistent command as he's battled those nagging injuries, and that will be a point of development going forward. If Staine can stay healthy and continue trending in the right direction like he is, he strikes me as the kind of guy that just continues to get better and better and becomes a mid rotation starter. The New Jersey native has to prove he's durable enough to handle a starter's workload though.

6-176: RHP Michael Prosecky, Louisville. My rank: #214.
Slot value: $296,300. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($3,700 above slot value).
Michael Prosecky has been on an interesting run. He earned significant draft interest out of high school in the Chicago area, but made it to campus at Louisville, got some innings in the shortened 2020 season, then struggled to throw strikes and barely pitched in 2021. He started to turn the corner with a strong run through the Cape Cod League that summer, posting a 1.61 ERA and a 30/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings, then continued to show well in fall practice, leading many scouts to tab him as a breakout candidate for 2022. While it was certainly his best season in Louisville, Prosecky didn't quite "break out," posting a 3.38 ERA and a 44/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings out of the bullpen. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 97 with steep angle that makes it more of a weak contact pitch than a bat misser. He spins a big curveball that gets him swings and misses, adding a slider and changeup that round out his arsenal. Big and projectable at 6'3", he has a simple, low effort delivery but hasn't been consistent enough with his command to give confidence about a future in the rotation. I do think he could start in the right system, though with the Rockies he will probably be better off focusing one one or two offspeeds and letting his fastball sit in the mid 90's where it can miss more bats. The command should also play up in that role. He tossed a perfect inning in his Arizona Complex League debut, striking out one.

10-296: RHP Zach Agnos, East Carolina. My rank: #205.
Slot value: $153,200. Signing bonus: $165,000 ($11,800 above slot value).
I actually had Zach Agnos on my board primarily as a position player, coming off a strong year with the bat in which he slashed .330/.405/.479 with seven home runs and a 66/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games, but the Rockies picked him up as a pitcher. Coming out of the ECU bullpen, he posted a 2.31 ERA and a 19/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings, and he'll continue to serve in that role with the Rockies. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, up to around 95, and adds a full set of secondaries. He has feel to spin two breaking balls as well as a solid changeup, commanding everything fairly well to boot. It's not a ton of velocity especially given that he's already only throwing in short stints, but it plays up a big because he gets low in his delivery and puts a relatively flat approach angle on his fastball. There is enough arm strength here to potentially think he could maintain something like 90-92 in a starter's role, especially given that he'll be focusing on pitching alone, though the Rockies will probably be best off just keeping him in the bullpen and letting the deep arsenal give hitters a different look than typical. If he ever does pick up the bat again, the Northern Virginia native consistently hits the ball hard and has a patient approach, but he doesn't lift the ball well and probably doesn't have the bat to ball skills to make the necessary swing adjustment to lift the ball more. In Coors, value comes from balls in the air, so he probably wouldn't be a great fit there as a hitter.

14-416: RHP Braxton Hyde, Butler County JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: undisclosed.
In the fourteenth round, the Rockies brought home a semi-hometown player who grew up on the High Plains. Braxton Hyde is a native of Liberal, Kansas, just north of the Oklahoma Panhandle and just over an hour east of the Colorado border. He has spent two years at Butler County in JC just outside of Wichita, and this year posted a 4.68 ERA and a 98/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings, though Baseball America notes that the Kansas JuCo circuit is a very hitter-friendly environment. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 95, working down the mound with a short, hard slider and a solid changeup. There's some effort in his delivery and he could probably use something a little softer if he wants to miss more bats in pro ball, but the stuff would play very well in relief where it could all tick up in power. He had been committed to Oral Roberts but will instead head across the plains to Denver.

19-566: 3B Skyler Messinger, Texas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: undisclosed.
Fourteenth rounder Braxton Hyde was a semi-hometown pick because western Kansas is closer to Denver than it is to Kansas City, but Skyler Messinger is a true hometown guy. He grew up a Rockies fan in Niwot, a small suburban community between Boulder and Longmont up north of Denver, and spent the first four years of his college career down I-70 at Kansas. Transferring to Texas as a fifth year senior this year, he had his best year yet by slashing .364/.414/.560 with eleven home runs and a 58/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. He is an aggressive hitter that is always looking to do damage, taking big, healthy hacks from the right side that help lead to average power. He especially loves to turn on the ball and drive it to left field, and that elevate and celebrate mindset will serve him well at Coors Field. The other element of being aggressive means that he chases fairly regularly, leading to a 20.5% strikeout rate and a very low 6.4% walk rate. He'll have to tighten that up in pro ball to hit his way through the system. Defensively, he has manned third base for the Longhorns and figures to play there in pro ball. Messinger is slashing .200/.294/.200 with a 3/1 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games in the Arizona Complex League.

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the ACC

2021 draftees: 63. Top school: North Carolina State (8)
2021 preseason writeup (published 10/27/2020)

Top draftees:
1-1, Pirates: C Henry Davis (Louisville)
1-15, Brewers: OF Sal Frelick (Boston College)
1-24, Braves: RHP Ryan Cusick (Wake Forest)
CBA-35, Reds: C Matheu Nelson (Florida State)
2-52, Marlins: SS Cody Morissette (Boston College)
2-53, Reds: LHP Andrew Abbott (Virginia)
2-60, A's: 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia)

It was another banner year for the ACC, which saw three players drafted in the first round including first overall pick Henry Davis, and eight drafted by the end of the second competitive balance round. Every school had at least one player drafted, while five different schools (NC State, Louisville, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia) had at least six draftees. This year already has another trio with firm first round aspirations ready to go, with quite a few more knocking on the door. While this year is more balanced than last year's hitter-heavy class, in which nine of the first eleven draftees were position players, it's hard not to notice an especially exciting group of power bats. On the mound, we'll get to watch a competition between Florida State lefties Bryce Hubbart and Parker Messick every weekend, as both have first round aspirations with Hubbart having jumped ahead on the heels of a strong summer. Below are the top ten prospects in the ACC heading into the 2022 season.

1. C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 8/3/2001. Hometown: Pasadena, CA.
2021: 9 HR, .318/.379/.550, 1 SB, 41/17 K/BB in 52 games.
Kevin Parada was the best position player prospect to reach campus a year ago, having ranked 47th on my 2020 draft board out of Loyola High School in Los Angeles. It's hard to reach those sky-high expectations at times, especially early on, but Parada hit the ground running in Atlanta and has only built on his stock with a massive freshman campaign. Just 52 games into his college career, he has a tough luck third team all-ACC nod (stuck behind first overall pick Henry Davis and fellow Golden Spikes candidate Matheu Nelson) as well as a Baseball America second team freshman all American nod. It's a really, really complete profile that fits right near the top of the draft, and because he's eligible as an older sophomore, he won't turn 21 until shortly after the draft and is the second youngest player on this list. Starting with the bat, Parada takes extremely professional at bats at a young age, especially shining in his ability to make adjustments and grind out at bats. Maybe you can get a pitch or two by him, but you're going to have to be perfect to finish him off. The LA product puts that approach to good use with above average power from his sturdy frame, getting to it easily and consistently with a simple but strong right handed swing that even popped a home run off second overall pick Jack Leiter in the Nashville regional. If there is one critique for Parada's offensive profile, it's that he could use to be a bit more selective at the plate and draw a few more walks, though that's really nitpicking for a 20 year old catcher who just slugged .550 in the ACC with a pretty strong 17.2% strikeout rate. Behind the plate, he faced questions as a high schooler about his ability to stick, but he's gotten much smoother back there after just one year in Atlanta and now should be at least average defensively. He's a smart player who will be able to handle the soft skills of catching in addition to the hard skills, and his strong arm helps keep the running game in check. If the draft were today, this would be a top ten profile that would come into play pretty quickly after the first couple of picks, projecting for 20+ home runs annually with good on-base percentages from a premium position. Similar production in 2022 with perhaps a few more walks could make him the first college bat off the board.

2. OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 2/13/2001. Hometown: Bristol, TN.
2021: 11 HR, .345/.415/.621, 9 SB, 48/17 K/BB in 51 games.
Between Ian Seymour, Carson Taylor, Packy Naughton, and Mark Zagunis, Virginia Tech has had some moderate early round talent in recent years, but it's certainly not on par with most other ACC programs. In 2022, however, the Hokies have a chance to produce not just a first rounder, but a potential top of the draft talent in Gavin Cross. At this point, he may have the most potent bat in the country, period. Ideally built for a power hitter at 6'3", he actually reminds me of Juan Soto in a few ways, including in his frame, swing, feel for the barrel, and raw power. Coming from the base, Cross gets his barrel into the zone early and keeps it there for a long time, enabling him to make consistent contact even if his timing isn't perfect. Once he does make contact, he can and will absolutely obliterate the baseball, crushing screaming line drives with regularity. Watching him a lot in 2021, I felt like I never saw him hit a ball softly, even hitting into the most consistently loud outs of any player I saw. It's plus-plus raw power that he gets to in games, though his approach could use some work. He again reminds me of Soto in the way he locks in on pitches from the hand to the plate, but at this point, he lacks the generational discipline of his Nationals counterpart. Rather, Cross is a very aggressive hitter who tracks pitches well then unleashes on anything he likes, still making consistent contact but limiting his walks perhaps a bit more than you'd like and not always getting the pitch to drive. In the field, it's a corner outfield profile with a chance to be a solid defender in right field because of his strong left arm, but everyone knows they're drafting the bat here. I see Cross having more offensive upside than Kevin Parada, with the potential for 30+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages, though he does need to hone in that approach a bit and he won't provide nearly as much defensive value. As a Virginia Tech alum, I'm very excited to watch him go to work again this spring.

3. LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'11", 190 lbs. Born 6/28/2001. Hometown: Windermere, FL.
2021: 6-5, 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 94/29 K/BB in 71 innings.
The 2022 Florida State weekend rotation will be as fun as it gets in college baseball, with lefties Bryce Hubbart and Parker Messick set to duke it out for the title of best pitching prospect in the ACC while highly regarded underclassmen Carson Montgomery and Jackson Baumeister will be among those vying for the third spot. While Messick was the team's best pitcher in 2021, it's Hubbart that has now pulled ahead as the frontrunner to be drafted first. He was strong albeit unspectacular as a sophomore this past spring, but absolutely took off in the Cape Cod League with a 0.87 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings. In fact, after allowing three runs in his first start, he locked in and allowed just one unearned run over his final five starts (spanning 27 innings) against elite competition. Hubbart sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it's steadily creeped up and he's been showing more and more 93's, 94's, and higher as of late and has a chance to sit comfortably in the mid 90's when all is said and done. He rips off a wicked curveball that shows true plus, while his newer slider had the look of a plus pitch at its best on the Cape as well. Add in a solid changeup, and you have one of the best four pitch mixes in the country. He's variously listed between 5'11" and 6'1" depending on where you look, but regardless, he's not the most imposing presence on the mound physically. However, with long arms and legs for his size, the Orlando-area native still offers projection, while his lightning fast right arm adds to the upside. He shows solid average command most of the time, though he does a better job hitting spots with his fastball than with his offspeed stuff, the latter of which still misses plenty of bats simply due to its movement. In pro ball, hanging breaking balls get hammered even when they break like Hubbart's, so that's on the to-do list. To top it all off, he's young for the class with a June birthday, a big positive for some teams. There is serious top of the rotation upside here, and he's currently firmly in the first round picture with the chance to be the first college arm drafted if he pitches this spring like he did over the summer.

4. LHP Parker Messick, Florida State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6', 225 lbs. Born 10/26/2000. Hometown: Plant City, FL.
2021: 8-2, 3.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 126/23 K/BB in 90 innings.
Bryce Hubbart's exceptional Cape run may have vaulted him ahead for now, it's Parker Messick who has the longest track record of success in the Florida State rotation. Messick was lights out in six relief appearances as a freshman (11.2 IP, 1 ER, 19/2 K/BB) and followed that up with a great sophomore season, sandwiched around a very strong run through the Florida Collegiate Summer League in 2020. While Hubbart is projectable and looks to continue trending up, Messick is much more about the now-product and figures to stay more or less the same. That's fine, because he's already a very good pitcher. The Tampa-area product sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 93-94, but it plays up because he hides the ball well and pitches with plenty of deception. He brings a full set of secondaries led by an above average changeup, though both the curveball and slider are consistently average and flash above as well. They lack power, but they show good shape and he consistently locates them to freeze hitters or send them flailing. Messick repeats his delivery well and has the look of a durable starting pitcher, with the ceiling of a #3 guy but a very high likelihood of becoming at least a #4 or a #5. It's probably an early second round projection right now, with the chance to pitch himself into the back of the first round if he can sharpen one of his breaking balls just a little bit. Though he and Hubbart are both Florida State lefties of similar height, that's where the similarities end and opposing lineups will have to be ready for two very different, equally difficult matchups every weekend.

5. LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 175 lbs. Born 10/17/2000. Hometown: Fort Myers, FL.
2021: 1-1, 2.22 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 75/8 K/BB in 44.2 innings.
Carson Palmquist is bound to split scouts as to his upside, because the results are undeniable but there just aren't many big league starting pitchers similar to him. He's coming off an exceptional spring out of the Miami bullpen in which he allowed just 34 baserunners in 44.2 innings (that's a .202 opponents on-base percentage if you're keeping track) and continued to shine with the US Collegiate National Team over the summer, and in 2022 he seems to be a frontrunner for ACC Pitcher of the Year. A true lefty sidearmer, his fastball has been steadily ticking up, from the upper 80's when he first got to Miami to the low 90's this spring and touching as high as 96. He adds a short, plus slider that's really difficult to pick up, as well as a solid changeup. The 6'3" lefty commands everything well and dominates the strike zone, controlling at bats from start to finish and leaving hitters more than a little frustrated when they just can't track his stuff. Palmquist probably comes with the highest floor in this conference, as a lefty sidearm reliever that touches 96 with a plus slider and command is already valuable as it is, but there are questions as to his upside. He averaged roughly five outs per appearance in 2021 and never went more than three innings, and there just aren't many sidearm starting pitchers in the big league as it is. His operation is comparable to Chris Sale, but Sale is an exception, not the rule. Now, if anybody can make that uphill climb to becoming a full time MLB starter from this starting point, it's him. It will be really interesting to see how Miami handles him in 2022, and if he does pick up 60-70 innings in the Hurricanes rotation without a drop off in effectiveness, it will be a first round profile.

6. RHP Henry Williams, Duke.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 200 lbs. Born 9/18/2001. Hometown: Darien, CT.
2021: 3-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 45/10 K/BB in 37 innings.
Unlike the five names above him on this list, Henry Williams does not have a big track record either in the ACC or in summer ball. Instead, he's more of a projection play than anything else, but someone who many in the industry think is heading for a breakout in 2022. Williams only made one unsuccessful relief appearance in 2020, then was a steady member of the Duke rotation for the first month and a half of the 2021 season before going down with arm soreness in April, after which he only made one more appearance in the Knoxville regional. For now, his fastball sits in the low 90's, only topping out around 93, while his slider and changeup are solid to above average pitches but not true bat-missers yet. Projection is the name of the game, as the 6'5" righty has a ton of room to fill out his ideal pitcher's frame and figures to add significant power to his stuff. He has an extremely loose, athletic delivery that he repeats consistently, giving him above average command at a young age while simultaneously portending plenty of opportunity to add velocity as he gets stronger. The Connecticut product also gets high spin rates on all of his pitches, giving extra life to his fastball and sharpening the bite on his slider. To top it off, he's extremely young for the class and won't turn 21 until September, making him the youngest player on this list despite being a grade ahead of #1 ranked Kevin Parada. Everything in this profile, from the size and frame to the athleticism, present stuff, command, and youth, points to an ace in the making. His ceiling is as high as anybody on this list and he could be the first one drafted come next July, but projection is just projection until you actually make good on it so the to-do list is also longer than most other names here. It would be nice to see his fastball creep into that 94-95 range more often rather than sitting closer to 90, as it would be to see him get a few more whiffs on that slider, and teams will also want to see him last a full season in the Blue Devil rotation given he only has 37.2 career innings to his name. Check off those boxes and he could go in the top ten.

7. OF Dylan Brewer, Clemson.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 180 lbs. Born 9/29/2000. Hometown: Latta, SC.
2021: 10 HR, .207/.332/.420, 6 SB, 65/29 K/BB in 49 games.
Dylan Brewer is one of the bigger boom or bust candidates in the conference. He has been very inconsistent at Clemson and struck out in 30% of his plate appearances this spring, but had a loud summer in the Coastal Plain League and slashed .350/.444/.608 while cutting his strikeout rate in half. Brewer is as tooled up as anyone in the conference, with plus raw power functioning as his carrying tool. He generates high exit velocities with long limbs and a strong frame, showing a smooth left handed hack. That swing can get long at times and he struggles with offspeed stuff, so for now the hit tool is well below average, but a patient approach and good pitch selection ability bode well for his ability to improve on it. An above average runner, he has a chance to be above average in right field and provide value on both sides of the ball. Going into 2022, scouts will be watching the swing and miss in Brewer's game closely, and if he can get his strikeout rate under 25% or so, he could go in the top two rounds. While the Coastal Plain League isn't quite the Cape, it still provides strong competition and his exceptional performance there bodes well for his ability to continue to improve as a hitter. He has power, speed, a professional approach, and is trending upward, so it's just time for those pure bat to ball skills to come around and tie the whole profile together.

8. OF Dalton Rushing, Louisville.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11, 230 lbs. Born 2/21/2001. Hometown: Brighton, TN.
2021: 4 HR, .254/.342/.463, 1 SB, 21/8 K/BB in 28 games.
Louisville consistently has one of the deepest lineups in the ACC and therefore the country, so to this point, Dalton Rushing has not seen the field much. He's played just 38 games over two seasons and showed well (.269/.364/.495), but it was his time on the Cape that really boosted his stock. This summer, he hit .319/.406/.543 with seven home runs against the best competition in college baseball, and he'll hope to carry that momentum into a season where he figures to get more consistent playing time. He shows above average raw power from the left side, a product of big time strength in his compact 5'11" frame as well as a simple swing that helps him find the barrel consistently in games. As a bat-first prospect without supplemental tools, pressure will fall on his hit tool, which has been inconsistent so far. While he's never had trouble producing against any level of competition, there has always been some lingering swing and miss in his game and scouts will want to see him drop his strikeout rate preferably below 20% in 2022. Rushing is a below average athlete who will be limited to first base or left field in pro ball, so continued strikeout concerns would make some teams very wary of betting on his bat. The good news is he actually showed less swing and miss on the Cape than he did in the ACC, so he has every chance to carry that progress over to his junior season and show a bat everyone can fall in love with. There is some Zach DeLoach in this profile as a left handed hitting, bat-first prospect that didn't produce much as an underclassman before breaking out on the Cape. At best, Rushing could hit 20+ home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, so he could hit his way into the second round very easily.

9. OF Chris Newell, Virginia.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 4/23/2001. Hometown: Newtown Square, PA.
2021: 5 HR, .258/.336/.397, 13 SB, 75/17 K/BB in 58 games.
This profile reminds me a bit of Jeren Kendall from his Vanderbilt days, except that Chris Newell is five inches taller. Newell was an ultra talented prep coming out of the suburban Philadelphia high school ranks in 2019, where he could have cracked the top couple of rounds, but made it to campus at Virginia and promptly hit .407/.545/.729 in his abbreviated 18 game freshman season. However, after setting that extremely high bar for himself, his sophomore season was a bit more uneven and it took eight hits (including two home runs) in his final fourteen at bats to bump his final line up to .258/.336/.397. After riding that little hot stretch to salvage the season, he took that momentum into the Cape Cod League where he slashed a very respectable .256/.307/.488 with five home runs in 21 games. Newell, like Dylan Brewer above him on this list, is one of the toolsiest players in the conference, if with perhaps a bit more athleticism and a bit less power. He does show above average power from the left side, a product of the twitchy strength in his 6'3" frame and a healthy uppercut hack, and he tapped that power with wood bats on the Cape. He's a very aggressive hitter, leading to a below average hit tool and an extremely streaky bat, so that will be very important to monitor in 2022. Newell's steep swing compounds those hit tool questions as well, and he struck out in a third of his plate appearances last spring and 28% on the Cape. When he's seeing the ball well, he looks like he could fit very close to the top of the draft and at his best ranks within the top tier of prospects in this conference, but he goes through prolonged stretches where he really struggles to make an impact at the plate. He offsets those slumps a bit by providing value on defense, with plus speed and a strong arm making him an asset in center field and far and away the best defender on this list. There's more variation in this profile than most, with an easy shot at hitting himself into the first round but perhaps an equal chance he finds himself in the third or fourth round after another spring with 25%+ strikeout rates.

10. LHP Michael Prosecky, Louisville.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 2/28/2001. Hometown: Westchester, IL.
2021: 0-0, 8.31 ERA, 2.65 WHIP, 10/7 K/BB in 8.2 innings.
Like Chris Newell, Michael Prosecky came to campus as one of the highest rated recruits in the country. However, he's managed just 26.2 innings so far in two years at Louisville and has been wholly unremarkable, especially this spring when he allowed nearly two hits and a walk per inning. However, it looks like he found something on the Cape, where he posted a 1.61 ERA and a 30/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings in a long relief role, and he's carried that momentum into fall practice with reports that he's looking much better than his first two seasons. His fastball sits in the low 90's but reportedly touched 97 this fall, and he backs that up with a full arsenal. Prosecky's curveball stands out as his best secondary, an above average pitch that has gotten much more consistent, while he adds a slider and changeup that both flash above average as well. Throughout his time at Louisville, the 6'3" lefty has fluctuated between struggling to find the strike zone and getting hit hard when his pitches catch to much plate, but he has an easy, repeatable delivery that has his command trending in the right direction. It's still probably fringe average until we see him prove it more in ACC play, but it's at least a half grade better than it was a year ago and he has a chance for above average command down the line. The Chicago-area product has a lot to prove in 2022, having never completed four innings either at Louisville or on the Cape in 2021, which is why he ranks so low on this list, but that could change quickly.

Honorable mentions (with 2021 stats):
3B Luke Gold (Boston College): 9 HR, .316/.364/.576, 2 SB, 31/13 K/BB in 44 games.
LHP Nate Savino (Virginia): 3-3, 3.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 34/16 K/BB in 54.2 innings.
RHP Zach Maxwell (Georgia Tech): 2-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 56/41 K/BB in 32 innings.
This list is only supposed to be ten, but three players are really close in my opinion and find themselves in the same tier as Dalton Rushing, Chris Newell, and Michael Prosecky. Luke Gold flew under the radar a bit behind big 2021 bats Sal Frelick and Cody Morissette at Boston College last year, but it's his turn to continue what's shaping up to be a surprising draft dynasty in Chestnut Hill. He lacks big tools, but is simply a professional hitter that gets the job done at the plate and showed some interesting power with six home runs on the Cape (while slashing .267/.363/.523). Gold has a simple, direct right handed swing which combines with that strength to provide consistent, usual game power even if he's not battering the parking lot in batting practice, and strong feel for the barrel gets him on base very consistently. He doesn't walk much because he makes consistent contact early in the count. Defensively, he looks like a fringy second or third baseman, with first base a possibility. Nate Savino is one of the more well-known names in the conference after reclassifying out of the 2020 draft to enroll early at Virginia, though like many other Virginia pitchers lately, his progress has stalled in Charlottesville. While he's been very effective for a teenager and his fastball has hit 95, it can also sit around 90 at times. He throws an above average slider and a fringe average changeup, but together, he just hasn't missed many bats. Savino has average command, but given his extreme youth (he won't even turn 20 until January), there's a very good chance he ends up above average in that regard. The 6'3" lefty might have been a first round pick in 2020 if he hadn't reclassified, so he'll look to recapture that pedigree this spring as one of the youngest four year college players available. Lastly, Zach Maxwell has the best pure stuff in the conference, but he has also walked 57 batters in 46.1 innings at Georgia Tech so far. Maxwell is a huge 6'6", 280 pound righty with a mid 90's fastball that has touched triple digits, adding a vicious slider with spin rates near 3000 that looks like a plus-plus pitch when he locates it. At this point, he has very poor command with a jerky delivery and a lack of coordination in his massive frame, so at bats can be very uncomfortable. Barring a transformation in 2022 and having never thrown more than three innings in an appearance at Georgia Tech, it's unlikely the Atlanta-area product ever becomes a starter in pro ball, but if he can improve his command to even a 40 grade, he has closer upside. There are some shades of pre-2020 Bobby Miller here, but Maxwell has an even more extreme profile with more size and less command.