Reviewing the St. Louis Cardinals Farm System

The Cardinals develop talent very well and have maintained a strong farm system even through a long run of contention, though that system may be down just a hair right now. The graduations of Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, and Jack Flaherty and trades of Carson Kelly, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Oscar Mercado, among others, have left the system thinner than usual as they haven't really had as much impact talent as usual coming through to back it up. The fact that back to back first round picks (both 23rd overall) Nick Plummer (2015) and Delvin Perez (2016) haven't panned out as hoped so far hurts, and most of the talent is concentrated in AA and AAA. Of course, I say "as much impact talent" because the Cardinals still have plenty of prospects breaking through, and the system is still quite average even during a down period. They have their typical, if a bit thin, army of useful starting pitchers as well as plenty of competent hitters that should be at least useful role players, though they're a bit short on impact hitters after Nolan Gorman.

Affiliates: AAA Memphis RedBirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, Short Season State College Spikes, Rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals

High Minors Pitchers: RHP Alex Reyes, RHP Dakota Hudson, RHP Daniel Poncedeleon, LHP Genesis Cabrera, RHP Ryan Helsley, and RHP Jacob Woodford
While the bottom of the Cardinals' farm system doesn't have much pitching depth, they have a nice array of major league ready or near-major league ready arms that have a diverse set of outlooks. 24 year old Alex Reyes has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a back injury in 2018 have slowed him down just as he reached the majors. However, he's just so talented that he's still the top prospect in a pretty decent Cardinals system. Over 23 minor league innings across four levels this year, he did not allow a run and put just 14 people on base for a 0.61 WHIP, striking out 44 to just seven walks. He also threw four shutout innings in the majors, striking out two and walking two and giving himself 27 shutout innings overall. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also dropping a hammer curveball and a pretty good changeup, stuff which is good enough to miss plenty of bats even at the major league level. While his command isn't great, the stuff is so good that he can be a #3 starter even with mediocre command, and if his command can take a step forward with consistent, healthy innings under his belt, he could be an ace and be one soon. 24 year old Dakota Hudson is also on the cusp of the majors, though he's a very different pitcher. The 2016 first round pick (34th overall) out of Mississippi State effectively handled AAA Memphis this year, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 87/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings before a moderately successful MLB stint (2.63 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 27.1 IP). He throws a mid 90's fastball with good sink as well as a very good cutter, though the rest of his arsenal is just average. Because he has decent enough command and those two pitches are so good, he can crack it as a starter up at AAA, but it remains to be seen whether he will last as a starter long term in the majors, where he'll need to be more precise with his command than he has been. Even if he doesn't develop any further and remains as is, Hudson would make a very good reliever, so the floor is high. 26 year old Daniel Poncedeleon broke through this year, going 9-4 with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at Memphis and then posting a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings in St. Louis. He's kind of a pitcher where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, with his low to mid 90's sinker headlining a pretty average arsenal that he commands decently well. His 2017 season ended with a line drive off the head, but he bounced back in 2018 and has over-performed everywhere. His scouting report says #5 starter/long reliever, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, he could stick in the rotation for a long time. 22 year old Genesis Cabrera will continue to get noticed due to his fantastic name, but he's also an important prospect after coming over in the Tommy Pham trade in July. He posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 148/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.1 innings, mostly at AA (plus two innings at AAA), showing one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the minors but lacking refinement elsewhere in his game. He ends up being more hittable than he should be when he falls behind in the count and when hitters don't have to worry about a good changeup, but the Cardinals do very well with refining pitchers and more time in the St. Louis system could help him break out into the possible mid-rotation starter he could be. Having just turned 22, he has plenty of time to master AAA and get ready for the majors. 24 year old Ryan Helsley has quietly handled the minors and, like Poncedeleon, seems to over-achieve everywhere he pitches. This year, he posted a 3.97 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 82/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings at AA Springfield, Memphis, and 2.2 rehab innings in complex ball. He throws a little harder than Poncedeleon but otherwise has a similarly average skill set, but his natural feel for the game has helped him reach the highest level of the minors. In 2019, he has a chance to prove he can start in the majors despite a relieverish profile. Lastly, 22 year old Jacob Woodford flew through the low minors after being drafted in the competitive balance round (39th overall) out of high school in Tampa, but he struggled for the first time in his career upon reaching the high minors this year. Over 28 starts, he had a 4.90 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 101/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 innings at Springfield and Memphis, much different than his 3.31 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2016 and his 3.10 mark at High A Palm Beach in 2017. He throws in the low 90's with decent secondary stuff and enough command to make it work, and as the youngest pitcher in this section (by 18 days over Cabrera), he has plenty of time to make the adjustments.

Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Seth Elledge, RHP Griffin Roberts, and LHP Steven Gingery
There is not nearly as much depth in the low minors for the Cardinals as there is in the high minors, with some good upside but nothing elite. 21 year old Junior Fernandez throws in the upper 90's with a good changeup, but he lacks a good breaking ball and when he falls behind in the count, hitters can sit on his fastball. This past year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, not missing nearly as many bats as he should. He's likely a reliever at this point, but if he brings in his command just a little, he may not need to develop a good breaking ball to be successful in the majors. 22 year old Seth Elledge, who came over from Seattle for Sam Tuivailala in July, is a more traditional relief prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider/changeup set, which he commands better than Fernandez. In 2018, he posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings between High A Modesto (Seattle) and AA Springfield. His ceiling is not as high as Fernandez's, but he is a more complete pitcher at this point and has a better chance to crack the majors and do so successfully. 22 year old Griffin Roberts was a competitive balance pick (43rd overall) out of Wake Forest this year, posting a 5.59 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between complex ball and High A Palm Beach. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a fantastic slider, one that on its own should get him up through the minors, though he'll have to improve his command and possibly add a tick to his fastball to become an elite reliever. The Cardinals believe he still has a chance at starting, in which case he'll have to continue to develop his changeup and there will be even more pressure on his command. Because he will miss the first 50 games of the season with a drug suspension and he's already old for his draft class (he'll be almost 23 when he's ready to return), I'd just stick him in the bullpen and let him move quickly through the minors. Lastly, 21 year old Steven Gingery was a fourth round pick out of Texas Tech this year, though he's a very different pitcher. He may get a late start on his 2019 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he has a good chance of returning early in the season. He's a 6'1" lefty who doesn't throw hard or have a good curveball, but he lives on his excellent changeup and commands his pitches very well. Gingery doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the Cardinals will try to help him sharpen his stuff just enough to move up through the minors as a back-end starter and get him to the major league mound fairly quickly once he's healthy. With his command and his swing and miss changeup, a little velocity or a sharper breaking ball could go a long way.

High Minors Hitters: C Andrew Knizner, OF Randy Arozarena, OF Justin Williams, OF Lane Thomas, 2B Max Schrock, SS Edmundo Sosa, 2B Ramon Urias, and SS Tommy Edman
As with the pitchers, most of the Cardinals' impact talent on offense is concentrated towards the top of the minor leagues. 23 year old Andrew Knizner is the one impact offensive prospect high in the minors, and Cardinals fans should be excited. Over 94 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, he slashed .313/.368/.430 with seven home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio, bringing his career minor league slash line to .310/.373/.460 over 242 games. He has hit everywhere he has been, making consistent hard contact even against advanced pitching and while he doesn't hit for too much power, he has enough pop in his bat to where he could start as a catcher once Yadier Molina relinquishes the job, if he ever does. While he's not a fantastic defender, he's good enough to where he's not a liability back there and with his bat, he'll at the very least be a very competent backup to Molina. 23 year old outfielders Randy Arozarena and Justin Williams have similar outlooks, both being toolsy outfielders on the verge of cracking the majors as good backups or solid regulars. Arozarena slashed .274/.359/.433 with 12 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and an 84/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between Springfield and Memphis, though he was better at the lower level (.396/.455/.681) than at the higher level (.232/.328/.348). Williams, meanwhile, slashed .252/.307/.379 with 11 home runs and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games just in AAA, also grounding out against Adam Conley in his only major league at bat. Arozarena is faster and a bit better of a defender, though Williams has a better track record at the plate and is more advanced for his age. Both have marginal power, though the Cardinals do well with these guys and both could be important bats. Expect one to end up starting at some point in a Stephen Piscotty capacity, while the other should end up a good fourth outfielder. 23 year old Lane Thomas had a great year statistically, slashing .264/.333/.489 with 21 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 134/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, his combination of power, speed, and defense giving him some interesting upside. He's a breakout prospect who never hit more than eight home runs in a season prior to this year, so if he can maintain that power breakout next year, he could be in the rookie outfield mix with Arozarena and Williams. This group of four infielders gives the Cardinals great depth at every position, and 24 year old Max Schrock has the best bat of the four. The former South Carolina Gamecock was traded from Washington to Oakland for Marc Rzepczynski then to St. Louis for Stephen Piscotty, though he had his worst offensive season this year by slashing .249/.296/.331 with four home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Memphis (down from .321/.379/.422 in AA in 2017). Just 5'8", he's a scrappy player who is just a decent defender at second base but one who plays hard and makes consistent contact, striking out in just 7.9% of his plate appearances this year. 22 year old Edmundo Sosa is the best defender, though he can still swing it a bit, having slashed .270/.313/.420 with 12 home runs and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Springfield and Memphis this year. His bat is probably too light to start, as he lacks power and doesn't get on base like Schrock, but his defense should make him a useful utility man. Lastly, 24 year old Ramon Urias and 23 year old Tommy Edman are utility prospects with no standout tools who just do a little bit of everything. Urias, recently signed out of the Mexican League, slashed .300/.356/.516 with 13 home runs and a 58/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between Springfield and Memphis, hitting better at the lower level (.333/.406/.589) than the upper level (.261/.291/.430). Edman hit .301/.354/.402 with seven home runs and 30 stolen bases across the same two levels, showing more speed and less power. Both, along with Schrock and Sosa, will be in the utility infield mix in 2019.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Luken Baker, 3B Elehuris Montero, OF Conner Capel, OF Dylan Carlson, and SS Delvin Perez
Down at the bottom of the St. Louis system, there's not much depth but there are a couple of guys who could be real difference makers. 18 year old Nolan Gorman might be the best prospect in the system, having just been drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of high school in Phoenix and destroying the Appalachian League in his debut. He slashed .350/.443/.664 with 11 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games with rookie level Johnson City in the Appy League, then slashed .202/.280/.426 with six more home runs and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games after an aggressive promotion to Class A Peoria, totaling 17 home runs and a .291/.380/.570 line over 63 games. He has huge raw power that could produce 40 home runs per season in the majors, but his long swing was thought to be a potential impediment to making contact in pro baseball. So far, that has not been an issue at all, and even though 6'1" is a bit small for a slugger, Gorman has middle of the order upside for the Cardinals if he can continue to make contact against better and better pitching. His defense at third base is just average and may force a move to first base, but the bat will play. 21 year old Luken Baker was a second rounder (75th overall) in the same draft out of TCU, and he got off to a similarly hot start by slashing .319/.386/.460 with four home runs and a 35/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and Peoria. The 6'4", 265 pound slugger has a very advanced bat that should move through the minors fairly quickly, though he has more 20-30 home run power than the 40 homer potential you'd expect given his size. He's limited to first base defensively but if he hits as expected, he should be able to work his way up to a starting spot or at least an important bench spot quickly. 20 year old Elehuris Montero had a breakout year in the mid minors this year, slashing .315/.371/.504 with 16 home runs and a 103/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Peoria and High A Palm Beach. He has power from the right side that he began to tap into in 2018, and he's a pretty advanced hitter for his age. He's not a great defender at third base but he has a great arm and may be able to stick there. If his power continues to grow, he could have another big season and push himself from an interesting upside play to a legitimate impact prospect. 21 year old Conner Capel and 20 year old Dylan Carlson give the Cardinals two more outfield bats to follow that could develop into nice role players in the future, with Capel coming over from the Indians in July and Carlson being a first round pick (33rd overall) out of high school near Sacramento in 2016. Capel slashed .257/.341/.376 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 102/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A, while Carlson slashed .246/.348/.390 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between Class A and High A. Both have marginal bats with good approaches and some present power, though neither has enough punch in their bats at this point to profile as more than future fourth outfielders. They're both good defenders, though Capel is faster, but Carlson has the slightly better bat and probably has the higher upside. Lastly, 20 year old Delvin Perez was the Cardinals' first round pick (23rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico in 2016, but the once-elite draft prospect has not panned out as planned so far. In 2018, he slashed .213/.301/.272 with one home run, eight stolen bases, and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in short season State College, continuing to struggle in his transition to pro ball and leaving the Cardinals wondering what kind of prospect they have. He's still a great defender at shortstop and will continue to get chances due to both that and his draft pedigree, but he has to start hitting at some point or he'll just end up organizational filler.

Reviewing My 2016 Draft Rankings

Intro

I composed my first draft prospect list in 2015, which went 60 deep and, as you would expect from my first time, was filled with holes. I was able to successfully project the success of players like Walker Buehler, Kolby Allard, and Triston McKenzie, but swung and missed badly with a low ranking of Andrew Benintendi and a high ranking of Mike Nikorak. In 2016, with a year's experience under my belt, I ranked 150 players and published the top 100, and while it still wasn't my best work, I was much happier with it than I was with my 2015 rankings. I believe 2017 was the first year where I truly am content, but seeing that you can't evaluate a draft class on its first pro season, let's take a look back at how my 2016 draft rankings have fared 16 months in. 

Linked here are my top 100 draft prospects for 2016: http://www.coverthosebases.com/blog/silverman-top-100-players-in-the-2016-mlb-draft

There will be three sections:

Biggest Successes: Players that I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who, after their first full professional season, have outplayed that consensus and fit closer with my ranking than with most others

Biggest Misses I: Players that have outplayed my predictions, proving my ranking to be too conservative

Biggest Misses II: Players who I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who have not lived up to my expectations, proving my ranking to be too aggressive

Biggest Successes

#8 Forrest Whitley (MLB.com ranking: 12. Draft position: 17, Astros)

I loved everything about Whitley coming into draft day, noting the excellent downhill plane on his mid-90's fastball and his late-breaking, two-plane curveball. Putting an asterisk next to his name because of how high I was on him, I saw the potential to be an ace who could easily wind up as at least a mid-rotation starter. While he was ranked eighth on my list and 12th on MLB.com, he fell to pick #17, where the Astros took him. After a decent debut that summer, he caught fire this year and reached AA as a teenager. Not only did he pitch for AA Corpus Christi just 14 months after graduating high school, he actually thrived, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a sharp 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 14.2 innings. I projected him as a potential ace, and he has done everything necessary to remain on track for that.

#11 Dakota Hudson (MLB.com ranking: 15. Draft position: 34, Cardinals)

This is another instance where my ranking, MLB.com's ranking, and the draft position were all in order. I bought in on Hudson's breakout season at Mississippi State, citing his devastating fastball/slider combination despite the lack of a proven track record. Despite being thought of as more of a project than a finished product, Hudson has progressed rapidly through the St. Louis farm system, starting 2017 off with AA Springfield and pitching very well (9-4, 2.53 ERA, 77/34 K/BB) before a late season promotion to AAA Memphis in just his first full professional season. While his Memphis numbers weren't excellent (4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19/15 K/BB in 38.2 innings), the fact of the matter is that he was in AAA barely a year removed from college and that he has addressed, though not fully vanquished, questions about his durability. He'll need more polish at AAA to begin 2018, but we should see the Tennessee native in the majors at some point during the year, my buying into his breakout year is looking pretty good.

#28 Carter Kieboom (MLB.com ranking: 45. Draft position: 28, Nationals)

This one is different than the first two, because both I and the Nationals saw something in Kieboom that MLB.com didn't. I saw his long swing but noticed that the bat head was in the zone for a long time, comparing him to Anthony Rendon if he could tap into his raw power. Pessimists didn't like the risk he carried, but I was enamored enough with his offensive upside to put label him a first round talent. Like Whitely, he earned an asterisk next to his name, used to denote my favorite players in the draft. The Nationals seemingly agreed with my optimism, taking him in the same spot I ranked him. He has exceeded expectations so far, sticking at shortstop for now despite most prognosticating him as a third baseman, and his bat has translated up to full season ball with no problems. In 48 games at Class A Hagerstown (with time missed to injury), he slashed .296/.400/.497 with eight home runs and a solid 40/28 strikeout to walk ratio despite not turning 20 until the very end of the season. If he can stay healthy, that Anthony Rendon projection could work out.

#34 Alec Hansen (MLB.com ranking: 62. Draft position: 49, White Sox)

Alec Hansen was an interesting case. The 6'7" right hander entered the spring as a candidate to go #1 overall with his mid to upper 90's fastball and solid secondaries, but his command completely dissolved at the beginning of the season and he was booted from Oklahoma's rotation. He managed to right the ship somewhat as the season went on, but his final line was less than inspiring: 5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 75/39 K/BB in 51.2 innings against mostly Big 12 competition. He had the high strikeout numbers, but if he couldn't harness his stuff, that would mean nothing at the next level. He plummeted in the rankings, but I chose to stay on the bandwagon and keep him at #34, 28 spots higher than MLB.com and 15 spots higher than his eventual draft position. I noted that pro coaching had the potential to streamline his delivery and improve his consistency, and so far, the results have been excellent. In 38 starts since being drafted, Hansen is 13-9 with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and most impressively, a 272/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 196 innings. He reached AA at the end of this season, making two starts and posting a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings. The difference has been the return of his control, which was non-existent at OU (6.79 BB/9 in his junior year) but has reached an acceptable level in the minors (3.26 BB/9). At this point, he's looking more and more like the pitcher many thought could go first overall, and #34 could be too conservative a ranking when it's all said and done.

#56 Mike Shawaryn (MLB.com ranking: 139. Draft position: 148, Red Sox)

Mike Shawaryn is like Hansen-lite. After an excellent sophomore season at Maryland (13-2, 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 138/29 K/BB), he entered the spring as a potential first round pick. However, his junior season was inconsistent (6-4, 3.18 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 97/26 K/BB), and he slipped way down draft boards. He had a funky delivery to begin with, and skeptics saw the regression as a sign that his mechanics wouldn't work at the next level. I dropped him a fair amount as well, but I kept him in the top 60 because I didn't think his 2016 was as frightening as people thought. He maintained a high strikeout rate with 97 in 99 innings (I can't find batters faced data anywhere, so I don't know the K% or BB%), and he maintained a low walk rate of 2.36 per nine. The fact that he had solid control was what eased my mind over the mechanical worries, but it didn't for MLB teams, and he slipped to the fifth round, where the Red Sox took him 148th overall. Through 32 minor league starts reaching up to High Class A, he hasn't been amazing but he has more than held his own, going 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 191/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 150.1 innings. Those numbers don't pop off the page, but I do like the high strikeout rate, and he's looking more like a second or third round pick than a fifth rounder right now. We'll have to keep an eye on the 0.80 career ground out to air out ratio though.

#63 Akil Baddoo (MLB.com ranking: 72. Draft position: 74, Twins)

This one is interesting. As of draft day, he was an extremely raw player with poor mechanics whose athleticism and overall trajectory got him noticed. He had big bat speed but looked like he would need a lot of refinement from pro coaching to get anywhere. A .178/.299/.570 slash line in the Gulf Coast League in 2016 seemingly confirmed that, though his 14.2% walk rate was promising. He spent the beginning of 2017 back in the GCL, slashing .267/.360/.440 in 20 games, but he caught fire upon a promotion to rookie level Elizabethton. In 33 games, the 18-19 year old slashed .357/.478/.579, walking 27 times (17.2%) to just 19 strikeouts (12.1%), boosting his stock considerably. Baddoo may have been raw last year, but he is well on his way to reaching his lofty ceiling.

#72 Zac Gallen (MLB.com ranking: 78. Draft position: 106, Cardinals)

My ranking wasn't too far ahead of MLB.com's ranking, but Gallen has been a success despite slipping out of the top 100, so I'll call it a win. He had a solid but unspectacular junior season at UNC (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 95/21 K/BB in 90.2 innings), relying more on pitchability and smarts than on pure stuff. Cognizant of that pitchability, I liked the stuff just enough to rank him ahead of industry consensus, and he's rewarded me so far. Just like Dakota Hudson, he was drafted by the Cardinals and ended up pitching in AAA by the end of 2017. Through 32 minor league games (29 starts), he is 10-8 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157.1 innings, and he should be one of the first pitchers from his draft class to break into the majors.

#74 Garrett Williams (MLB.com ranking: 154. Draft position: 215, Giants)

This is one I am very proud of. Scouts liked his stuff, but he struggled to stay healthy (31.2 innings in sophomore and junior seasons at Oklahoma State combined) and with his command (30 walks in that span). I was particularly enamored with his stuff, noting an "angled, running fastball, a two-plane curveball that he can mend the shape of, and a fading changeup" (from my 2016 pre-draft notes). I liked his delivery as well, and noted that getting farther from his shoulder injury could help improve his dreadful command, especially as he was on the mound consistently. This all depended on him staying healthy, but so far, he has, and he has thus far justified my extremely optimistic ranking 141 spots higher than he was picked. In 2017, between Class A Augusta and High Class A San Jose in the hitters' paradise California League, Williams went 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, striking out 96 to 35 walks in 97 innings. The walk rate is still a bit high, but it has come down significantly from college and I think it will continue to do so. Watch this one.

Biggest Misses I (under-projected)

#7 Nick Senzel (MLB.com ranking: 7. Draft position: 2, Reds)

This isn't that big of a miss considering I ranked Senzel in the same place as MLB.com, but I still underestimated him. His big junior season at Tennessee saw him slash .352/.456/.595 with eight home runs, but I saw him more as a solid third baseman than as a star. I recognized his high floor, but wasn't sold on a ceiling of anything higher than a solid, Chase Headley-type third baseman. However, he has already reached AA and is slashing .315/.393/.514 with 21 home runs in his minor league career, including a .340/.413/.560 line in 57 games at AA Pensacola. He still may not be on track for that Headley comparison, but he's skirting right along his ceiling and could push it higher into the Anthony Rendon range (like Kieboom). 

#77 Bo Bichette (MLB.com ranking: 90. Draft position: 66, Blue Jays)

I actually ranked Bichette thirteen spots ahead of MLB.com, but also eleven spots behind where he was taken by the Blue Jays. The talent was evident, as he showed great bat speed and bat control, even if his mechanics were a little wild. However, I, along with most of the teams who picked before the Jays, missed the true potential, as literally everything has gone right for Bichette since draft day. Through 132 games across three levels (22 in the GCL, 70 in Class A, 40 in High Class A), the 19 year old is slashing .372/.427/.591 with 18 home runs, 50 doubles, and 25 stolen bases, including a .323/.379/.463 line at High A this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Despite being ranked 90th in his draft class by MLB.com in June 2016, he is now ranked as the 25th best prospect in all of baseball, and in my opinion, MLB.com is being too conservative yet again.

#117 Austin Hays (MLB.com ranking: 120. Draft position: 91, Orioles)

Again, I had Hays three spots ahead of MLB.com (as you can see, they're not very good prognosticators), but the Orioles recognized offensive ability that I didn't and took him 26 spots higher than I ranked him. I liked his quick swing but I didn't think the power would hold as he moved up, knocking him out of my top 100. As it turns out, his offensive breakout at the University of Jacksonville was no joke, and he has cracked no fewer than 36 minor league home runs over 166 games so far, slashing .330/.370/.576 in the short season New-York Penn League (38 games in 2016), High A Carolina League (64 games in 2017), and AA Eastern League (64 games). He even earned a September promotion to the big leagues, adding a 37th professional home run as the first player from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors.

#148 Bryse Wilson (MLB.com ranking: 144. Draft position: 109, Braves)

I saw nothing particularly special in Wilson, a high schooler from North Carolina, noting an uneven arm path and what I saw as a below-average slider. The Braves loved the arm strength that I merely liked, taking him 39 spots ahead of my ranking, and it has paid off in spades so far. The slider still isn't great, but they cleaned up his arm path and both his velocity and command have held up, helping him put up an excellent season for Class A Rome this year. Over 26 starts, the 19 year old went 10-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 139 and walking 37 in 137 innings. There are still questions as to how he will hold up at the higher levels without that slider, and he may still turn out to be a reliever, but there is certainly talent here that I did not pick up.

Biggest Misses II (over-projected)

#1 Mickey Moniak (MLB.com ranking: 5. Draft position: 1, Phillies)

This one is an interesting case. Moniak had helium throughout the Spring of 2016, starting as a mid-first round candidate before hitting his way into the top ten and ultimately top five consideration. General industry consensus never moved him past the 4-7 range, but he was a personal favorite of mine due to his swing mechanics and makeup, so I aggressively ranked him number one on my draft board well before the Phillies buzz. As it turned out, the Phillies agreed with me, selecting Moniak first overall. They aggressively assigned him to Class A Lakewood this year, and the results were underwhelming to say the least: .236/.284/.341, five home runs, eleven stolen bases in 123 games. He may have been 19 playing in full season ball, but those numbers just don't cut it. Unfortunately, when I saw Lakewood play at Delmarva on my day off work, Moniak was on the bench, and I only got to see one pinch-hitting plate appearance (he grounded out). Moniak is far from a bust, but he'll probably repeat the level in 2018 in hopes of adjusting. I still have high hopes for Moniak being a star outfielder in Philadelphia, but other players such as Forrest Whitley, Nick Senzel, Bo Bichette, and A.J. Puk have moved ahead of him in his draft class.

#15 Buddy Reed (MLB.com ranking: 30. Draft position: 48, Padres)

I remained optimistic on Alec Hansen and Mike Shawaryn when their stock faded, and that worked out, but it didn't work out when I did the same for Buddy Reed. An extremely athletic outfielder who slashed .305/.367/.433 with 18 stolen bases as a sophomore at Florida, he regressed to .262/.362/.395 with 24 stolen bases as a junior, looking lost at the plate and leading many scouts to question his floor. I still liked his athleticism at the time, but looking back, the warning signs were there, as his high sophomore strikeout rate (17.9%) jumped to 20.5% as a junior. In his full season debut with Class A Fort Wayne this year, he put up a disappointing .234/.290/.396 line with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 88 games, striking out in 28% of his plate appearances. His athleticism could still help him adjust as he moves up, but he certainly hasn't justified a mid-first round ranking and probably never will.

#49 Jake Fraley (MLB.com ranking: 89. Draft position: 77, Rays)

As of draft day, Fraley struck me as a high floor, low ceiling outfielder who would ultimately fall somewhere between a Sam Fuld and a Gerardo Parra, with the overall projection of a starting outfielder with speed but limited pop. He slashed a career best .326/.408/.464 with five home runs and 28 stolen bases as a junior at LSU in 2016, showing a quick swing and an 11.8% walk rate (coupled with a 10.5% strikeout rate) that led me to make that high-floor projection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited his time on the field in pro ball, and in the 85 total games he has seen on the field, he is slashing just .229/.319/.356 with three home runs and 37 stolen bases. He spent 26 games in the High Class A Florida State League in 2017, which turned out to be a miserable failure as he slashed .170/.238/.255 with one home run, one stolen base, three caught stealing's, and a 22.9% strikeout rate to just a 6.7% walk rate. The 22 year old could concievably bounce back when healthy, but he has a lot of catch-up to play and just as much to prove.

#81 Walker Robbins (MLB.com ranking: 93. Draft position: 166, Cardinals)

This one is just a straight miss on my part. Robbins was a country strong power hitter from rural southeastern Mississippi, one who I believed could break out with pro refinement once his swing was cleaned up. Unfortunately, a year and a half later, that hasn't happened. Through 70 pro games (30 in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2016, 40 in the Appalachian League in 2017), Robbins is slashing just .179/.239/.246 with two home runs and a 79/19 strikeout to walk ratio. That comes out to a 30% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate, and virtually no production. Robbins is still just 19 and has time to right the ship, but at this point he is looking like a long shot.