The Cardinals develop talent very well and have maintained a strong farm system even through a long run of contention, though that system may be down just a hair right now. The graduations of Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, and Jack Flaherty and trades of Carson Kelly, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Oscar Mercado, among others, have left the system thinner than usual as they haven't really had as much impact talent as usual coming through to back it up. The fact that back to back first round picks (both 23rd overall) Nick Plummer (2015) and Delvin Perez (2016) haven't panned out as hoped so far hurts, and most of the talent is concentrated in AA and AAA. Of course, I say "as much impact talent" because the Cardinals still have plenty of prospects breaking through, and the system is still quite average even during a down period. They have their typical, if a bit thin, army of useful starting pitchers as well as plenty of competent hitters that should be at least useful role players, though they're a bit short on impact hitters after Nolan Gorman.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis RedBirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, Short Season State College Spikes, Rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Alex Reyes, RHP Dakota Hudson, RHP Daniel Poncedeleon, LHP Genesis Cabrera, RHP Ryan Helsley, and RHP Jacob Woodford
While the bottom of the Cardinals' farm system doesn't have much pitching depth, they have a nice array of major league ready or near-major league ready arms that have a diverse set of outlooks. 24 year old Alex Reyes has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a back injury in 2018 have slowed him down just as he reached the majors. However, he's just so talented that he's still the top prospect in a pretty decent Cardinals system. Over 23 minor league innings across four levels this year, he did not allow a run and put just 14 people on base for a 0.61 WHIP, striking out 44 to just seven walks. He also threw four shutout innings in the majors, striking out two and walking two and giving himself 27 shutout innings overall. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also dropping a hammer curveball and a pretty good changeup, stuff which is good enough to miss plenty of bats even at the major league level. While his command isn't great, the stuff is so good that he can be a #3 starter even with mediocre command, and if his command can take a step forward with consistent, healthy innings under his belt, he could be an ace and be one soon. 24 year old Dakota Hudson is also on the cusp of the majors, though he's a very different pitcher. The 2016 first round pick (34th overall) out of Mississippi State effectively handled AAA Memphis this year, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 87/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings before a moderately successful MLB stint (2.63 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 27.1 IP). He throws a mid 90's fastball with good sink as well as a very good cutter, though the rest of his arsenal is just average. Because he has decent enough command and those two pitches are so good, he can crack it as a starter up at AAA, but it remains to be seen whether he will last as a starter long term in the majors, where he'll need to be more precise with his command than he has been. Even if he doesn't develop any further and remains as is, Hudson would make a very good reliever, so the floor is high. 26 year old Daniel Poncedeleon broke through this year, going 9-4 with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at Memphis and then posting a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings in St. Louis. He's kind of a pitcher where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, with his low to mid 90's sinker headlining a pretty average arsenal that he commands decently well. His 2017 season ended with a line drive off the head, but he bounced back in 2018 and has over-performed everywhere. His scouting report says #5 starter/long reliever, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, he could stick in the rotation for a long time. 22 year old Genesis Cabrera will continue to get noticed due to his fantastic name, but he's also an important prospect after coming over in the Tommy Pham trade in July. He posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 148/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.1 innings, mostly at AA (plus two innings at AAA), showing one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the minors but lacking refinement elsewhere in his game. He ends up being more hittable than he should be when he falls behind in the count and when hitters don't have to worry about a good changeup, but the Cardinals do very well with refining pitchers and more time in the St. Louis system could help him break out into the possible mid-rotation starter he could be. Having just turned 22, he has plenty of time to master AAA and get ready for the majors. 24 year old Ryan Helsley has quietly handled the minors and, like Poncedeleon, seems to over-achieve everywhere he pitches. This year, he posted a 3.97 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 82/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings at AA Springfield, Memphis, and 2.2 rehab innings in complex ball. He throws a little harder than Poncedeleon but otherwise has a similarly average skill set, but his natural feel for the game has helped him reach the highest level of the minors. In 2019, he has a chance to prove he can start in the majors despite a relieverish profile. Lastly, 22 year old Jacob Woodford flew through the low minors after being drafted in the competitive balance round (39th overall) out of high school in Tampa, but he struggled for the first time in his career upon reaching the high minors this year. Over 28 starts, he had a 4.90 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 101/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 innings at Springfield and Memphis, much different than his 3.31 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2016 and his 3.10 mark at High A Palm Beach in 2017. He throws in the low 90's with decent secondary stuff and enough command to make it work, and as the youngest pitcher in this section (by 18 days over Cabrera), he has plenty of time to make the adjustments.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Seth Elledge, RHP Griffin Roberts, and LHP Steven Gingery
There is not nearly as much depth in the low minors for the Cardinals as there is in the high minors, with some good upside but nothing elite. 21 year old Junior Fernandez throws in the upper 90's with a good changeup, but he lacks a good breaking ball and when he falls behind in the count, hitters can sit on his fastball. This past year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, not missing nearly as many bats as he should. He's likely a reliever at this point, but if he brings in his command just a little, he may not need to develop a good breaking ball to be successful in the majors. 22 year old Seth Elledge, who came over from Seattle for Sam Tuivailala in July, is a more traditional relief prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider/changeup set, which he commands better than Fernandez. In 2018, he posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings between High A Modesto (Seattle) and AA Springfield. His ceiling is not as high as Fernandez's, but he is a more complete pitcher at this point and has a better chance to crack the majors and do so successfully. 22 year old Griffin Roberts was a competitive balance pick (43rd overall) out of Wake Forest this year, posting a 5.59 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between complex ball and High A Palm Beach. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a fantastic slider, one that on its own should get him up through the minors, though he'll have to improve his command and possibly add a tick to his fastball to become an elite reliever. The Cardinals believe he still has a chance at starting, in which case he'll have to continue to develop his changeup and there will be even more pressure on his command. Because he will miss the first 50 games of the season with a drug suspension and he's already old for his draft class (he'll be almost 23 when he's ready to return), I'd just stick him in the bullpen and let him move quickly through the minors. Lastly, 21 year old Steven Gingery was a fourth round pick out of Texas Tech this year, though he's a very different pitcher. He may get a late start on his 2019 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he has a good chance of returning early in the season. He's a 6'1" lefty who doesn't throw hard or have a good curveball, but he lives on his excellent changeup and commands his pitches very well. Gingery doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the Cardinals will try to help him sharpen his stuff just enough to move up through the minors as a back-end starter and get him to the major league mound fairly quickly once he's healthy. With his command and his swing and miss changeup, a little velocity or a sharper breaking ball could go a long way.
High Minors Hitters: C Andrew Knizner, OF Randy Arozarena, OF Justin Williams, OF Lane Thomas, 2B Max Schrock, SS Edmundo Sosa, 2B Ramon Urias, and SS Tommy Edman
As with the pitchers, most of the Cardinals' impact talent on offense is concentrated towards the top of the minor leagues. 23 year old Andrew Knizner is the one impact offensive prospect high in the minors, and Cardinals fans should be excited. Over 94 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, he slashed .313/.368/.430 with seven home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio, bringing his career minor league slash line to .310/.373/.460 over 242 games. He has hit everywhere he has been, making consistent hard contact even against advanced pitching and while he doesn't hit for too much power, he has enough pop in his bat to where he could start as a catcher once Yadier Molina relinquishes the job, if he ever does. While he's not a fantastic defender, he's good enough to where he's not a liability back there and with his bat, he'll at the very least be a very competent backup to Molina. 23 year old outfielders Randy Arozarena and Justin Williams have similar outlooks, both being toolsy outfielders on the verge of cracking the majors as good backups or solid regulars. Arozarena slashed .274/.359/.433 with 12 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and an 84/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between Springfield and Memphis, though he was better at the lower level (.396/.455/.681) than at the higher level (.232/.328/.348). Williams, meanwhile, slashed .252/.307/.379 with 11 home runs and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games just in AAA, also grounding out against Adam Conley in his only major league at bat. Arozarena is faster and a bit better of a defender, though Williams has a better track record at the plate and is more advanced for his age. Both have marginal power, though the Cardinals do well with these guys and both could be important bats. Expect one to end up starting at some point in a Stephen Piscotty capacity, while the other should end up a good fourth outfielder. 23 year old Lane Thomas had a great year statistically, slashing .264/.333/.489 with 21 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 134/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, his combination of power, speed, and defense giving him some interesting upside. He's a breakout prospect who never hit more than eight home runs in a season prior to this year, so if he can maintain that power breakout next year, he could be in the rookie outfield mix with Arozarena and Williams. This group of four infielders gives the Cardinals great depth at every position, and 24 year old Max Schrock has the best bat of the four. The former South Carolina Gamecock was traded from Washington to Oakland for Marc Rzepczynski then to St. Louis for Stephen Piscotty, though he had his worst offensive season this year by slashing .249/.296/.331 with four home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Memphis (down from .321/.379/.422 in AA in 2017). Just 5'8", he's a scrappy player who is just a decent defender at second base but one who plays hard and makes consistent contact, striking out in just 7.9% of his plate appearances this year. 22 year old Edmundo Sosa is the best defender, though he can still swing it a bit, having slashed .270/.313/.420 with 12 home runs and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Springfield and Memphis this year. His bat is probably too light to start, as he lacks power and doesn't get on base like Schrock, but his defense should make him a useful utility man. Lastly, 24 year old Ramon Urias and 23 year old Tommy Edman are utility prospects with no standout tools who just do a little bit of everything. Urias, recently signed out of the Mexican League, slashed .300/.356/.516 with 13 home runs and a 58/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between Springfield and Memphis, hitting better at the lower level (.333/.406/.589) than the upper level (.261/.291/.430). Edman hit .301/.354/.402 with seven home runs and 30 stolen bases across the same two levels, showing more speed and less power. Both, along with Schrock and Sosa, will be in the utility infield mix in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Luken Baker, 3B Elehuris Montero, OF Conner Capel, OF Dylan Carlson, and SS Delvin Perez
Down at the bottom of the St. Louis system, there's not much depth but there are a couple of guys who could be real difference makers. 18 year old Nolan Gorman might be the best prospect in the system, having just been drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of high school in Phoenix and destroying the Appalachian League in his debut. He slashed .350/.443/.664 with 11 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games with rookie level Johnson City in the Appy League, then slashed .202/.280/.426 with six more home runs and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games after an aggressive promotion to Class A Peoria, totaling 17 home runs and a .291/.380/.570 line over 63 games. He has huge raw power that could produce 40 home runs per season in the majors, but his long swing was thought to be a potential impediment to making contact in pro baseball. So far, that has not been an issue at all, and even though 6'1" is a bit small for a slugger, Gorman has middle of the order upside for the Cardinals if he can continue to make contact against better and better pitching. His defense at third base is just average and may force a move to first base, but the bat will play. 21 year old Luken Baker was a second rounder (75th overall) in the same draft out of TCU, and he got off to a similarly hot start by slashing .319/.386/.460 with four home runs and a 35/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and Peoria. The 6'4", 265 pound slugger has a very advanced bat that should move through the minors fairly quickly, though he has more 20-30 home run power than the 40 homer potential you'd expect given his size. He's limited to first base defensively but if he hits as expected, he should be able to work his way up to a starting spot or at least an important bench spot quickly. 20 year old Elehuris Montero had a breakout year in the mid minors this year, slashing .315/.371/.504 with 16 home runs and a 103/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Peoria and High A Palm Beach. He has power from the right side that he began to tap into in 2018, and he's a pretty advanced hitter for his age. He's not a great defender at third base but he has a great arm and may be able to stick there. If his power continues to grow, he could have another big season and push himself from an interesting upside play to a legitimate impact prospect. 21 year old Conner Capel and 20 year old Dylan Carlson give the Cardinals two more outfield bats to follow that could develop into nice role players in the future, with Capel coming over from the Indians in July and Carlson being a first round pick (33rd overall) out of high school near Sacramento in 2016. Capel slashed .257/.341/.376 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 102/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A, while Carlson slashed .246/.348/.390 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between Class A and High A. Both have marginal bats with good approaches and some present power, though neither has enough punch in their bats at this point to profile as more than future fourth outfielders. They're both good defenders, though Capel is faster, but Carlson has the slightly better bat and probably has the higher upside. Lastly, 20 year old Delvin Perez was the Cardinals' first round pick (23rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico in 2016, but the once-elite draft prospect has not panned out as planned so far. In 2018, he slashed .213/.301/.272 with one home run, eight stolen bases, and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in short season State College, continuing to struggle in his transition to pro ball and leaving the Cardinals wondering what kind of prospect they have. He's still a great defender at shortstop and will continue to get chances due to both that and his draft pedigree, but he has to start hitting at some point or he'll just end up organizational filler.
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