Showing posts with label Brendan Girton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brendan Girton. Show all posts

Saturday, August 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets pulled together a really interesting class filled with diverse skill sets that will be interesting to track in pro ball. It's headlined by Carson Benge, a do-it-all two-way guy who looks like he'll be a hitter only, and includes some live arms, data sleepers, and guys with interesting back stories. Now in the modern bonus pool era, teams almost universally sign every pick in the top ten rounds, but it appears the Mets are the one team to struggle with it. After failing to sign first rounder Kumar Rocker in 2021, they did the same with 2022 third rounder Brandon Sproat (then drafted and signed him a year later) and couldn't come to terms with ninth rounder Jaxon Jelkin this year.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $4.22 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($221,700 below slot value).
My rank: #15. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #15.
The Mets started off their draft with a fun one, one which reminds me just a bit of Mets 2023 third rounder and fellow OSU Cowboy Nolan McLean. Benge, a first rounder, has a much more polished, well-rounded profile and lacks McLean's other-worldly power, but aligns as a rangy, athletic two-way player with tremendous physical talent beyond just the baseball ability. McLean is now a pitcher, while it looks like Benge is going to hit. Tommy John surgery stole his freshman season in 2022, but he has been as central a piece as you can have for Oklahoma State over the past two seasons. He does a bit of it all. Benge has long levers in his 6'1" frame that he consistently gets extended, driving hard line drives around the field with plenty of regularity. While he prefers that all-fields approach, he's plenty strong with above average power that he is tapping more and more in games. With a patient approach and strong bat to ball, he controls the strike zone and walks at a high rate, and his overall skill set will be conducive to tapping more and more power as he develops. Some scouts question his unorthodox swing mechanics, which start with an open stance, continue into a leg kick/double foot tap hybrid coinciding with a barrel tip/hitch in his hands, and finish with significant head whack in his swing. Still, despite all the moving parts, he gets that barrel where it needs to be better than most hitters in this draft, speaking volumes to his innate hand-eye coordination. An average runner, he plays a very solid right field with his plus right arm that also serves him on the mound, where he is up to 96 with a deep slider and improving command. The Oklahoma City-area product is a great athlete that moves very well on both sides of the ball, further lending to the projection in his profile. With his athleticism, strength, barrel accuracy, patience, and projection, he could become one of the most well-rounded hitters in this class when all is said and done, with the chance to hit 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. He hasn't quite hit his stride yet, hitting .176/.391/.176 with eight strikeouts to five walks through five games at Low A St. Lucie.

2-46: LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke {video}
Slot value: $2.03 million. Signing bonus: $2.03 million.
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #32.
Jonathan Santucci has been on a bit of an interesting ride and he comes with more upside than the typical second round college arm. After establishing himself with a very strong freshman season in 2022, elbow problems cut his strong start to the 2023 season short. Santucci got off to a hot start again in 2024, putting up seventeen straight scoreless innings against Indiana, Northwestern, and Akron right out of the gate (including fourteen strikeouts in six innings against Akron), and found himself in the middle of the first round conversation to the point where he may not have even been available to the Mets at #19. Unfortunately, command woes derailed his season from there somewhat, but righted the ship somewhat at the end and kept himself within the top fifty picks. Santucci has almost all of the ingredients you look for in an impact starting pitcher. The 6'2" lefty is durably and athletically built with a pretty ideal frame to throw 180+ innings a year in the bigs, with a fairly clean delivery that should be pretty repeatable with pro instruction. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and gets up to 96-97 at peak, coming in with above average riding life to make it play up another tick with close to a 30% whiff rate. He gets late, deep bite on his plus slider that gets excellent results, especially when he commands it. He doesn't use his changeup as much, but it too looks like a potential weapon against righties with great fade to the arm side. It's a true big league three pitch mix from the left side, something you rarely find from a starting pitcher mold in the second round. While the Massachusetts native has held together his command at times, it escaped him more often than not in 2024 as he struggled to repeat his release point and execute his spots. The stuff was still enough to overwhelm ACC hitters and his 35% strikeout rate was among the better marks you'll see, though the 14% walk rate showed the other side of that. If the Mets can help him gain just enough feel for his delivery to live in the zone, the stuff will take care of the rest and he could be a #2 or #3 starter. If not, he could end up a frustrating back-end starter that pops for some gems or a three pitch reliever.

3-82: RHP Nate Dohm, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $934,800. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($137,300 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #150.
I found Nate Dohm to be an interesting sleeper this year and I had him ranked about a round ahead of most other outlets. It seems the Mets agreed, and they drafted him about a round earlier than I had him ranked, paying him roughly the slot value for pick #92 here at pick #82. Despite coming from a big SEC program, he took a fairly circuitous route to where he is now. An Indianapolis-area native, he began his career at Ball State and transferred to Mississippi State after a solid freshman season. He was off to an excellent start as a starter in 2024 when forearm problems shut him down in March, and after making one short appearance in April, he returned for three relief appearances in May. Health is certainly a question mark, but the stuff isn't. Dohm's fastball can sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 99 in short stints (though a few ticks below that in longer outings), coming in with big riding action from a great release point. It's a true plus pitch, and it looks plus-plus in short bursts. He shows a pair of above average breaking balls and can execute them better than most amateur pitchers. The changeup is interesting, as he typically lacks feel for it and doesn't use it too much, but every once in a while he grips it right and can show a plus one. On top of everything, Dohm is an impressive mover on the mound that gets nice extension and a low release point to make everything play up a little more out of his hand. The 6'4" righty also shows above average command and walked just four batters in 29.1 innings in 2024, giving him almost all of the ingredients to become an impact starting pitcher. At this point, the only issue is durability, as in addition to the missed time in 2024, he has made just eleven starts over three years in college and he has never thrown more than 41 innings in a season. Some scouts are also turned off by his delivery, which includes a late arm and late jerk down the mound. The Mets are banking on the excellent combination of size, stuff, command, and release point, and are hoping that they can iron out the delivery a little bit to keep him on the mound consistently. That durability will be the difference in whether he ends up a starter or a reliever.

4-111: OF Eli Serrano III, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $656,400. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($41,100 above slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #205.
Eli Serrano is an interesting one, and like Dohm, both the Mets and I like him better than the big publications. He jumped onto the scene with a nice freshman season at NC State (.292/.389/.470, 7 HR), then failed to take a step forward with almost the exact same numbers as a sophomore in 2024 (.286/.383/.433, 9 HR). However, while those numbers look underwhelming in a year of high offense around the league, the underlying metrics are very impressive. Serrano shows sneaky average raw power, and with his height (6'5") and projection he could grow into above average power pretty easily. At this point, he's more of a line drive hitter so that power doesn't really manifest itself in games, but he has the hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to elevate more with pro instruction. He's also an excellent contact hitter who quietly ran one of the higher contact rates in this draft class, and in fact was one of just five players on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145 college hitters) to turn in a contact rate above 85% and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 105 MPH. The high contact rates mean that he puts the ball in play as often as anybody, and was one of just four college hitters on my draft board (out of 73) to keep both his strikeout rate and his walk rate below 10% apiece. For the most part, the Mets are buying the bat here with his potential to hit 15-20 home runs per season with high batting averages. The glove is more ordinary, as Serrano shows average defensive tools across the board. His most likely destination is left field, where his lack of speed and arm strength can be hidden a little more, especially if he slows down further with age. So far, he's hitting .185/.241/.333 with one home run and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games for Low A St. Lucie.

5-144: SS Trey Snyder, Liberty North HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $476,200. Signing bonus: $1.32 million ($846,300 above slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #155. Baseball America: #142.
The Mets' largest over slot bonus by far went to Trey Snyder, who has a chance to be the team's shortstop of the future if everything breaks right. Initially committed to Tennessee, it took roughly the slot value for the #64 pick to lure him to New York instead. Snyder is more about polish over tools, so the development plan should be more straightforward than not. Though he's not ultra projectable, he has a quick right handed swing with natural loft that should help him maximize his fringy raw power in games. He already has a long track record of hitting against strong competition, supported by a disciplined approach at the plate and good feel for the barrel. The upside here is probably 10-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which will be plenty at shortstop. Snyder shows great body control at shortstop to make all the plays that come to him, with quick feet to make adjustments and enough arm to make it work on the left side of the infield. He's more of an average runner and the arm is more good than great, so there is a chance he gets pushed to second or third base by a more explosive defender. There's no question that the Kansas City-area product can flat out play ball, so his ability to impact the baseball and maintain his athleticism will determine his ultimate impact at the big league level.

6-173: 1B Corey Collins, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $363,100. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($88,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #182.
You can't research every player, so every year there has to be a cutoff and Corey Collins was one of those who just missed it for me in 2024. He represents one of the better senior signs in the country, giving the Mets close to a $100K haircut here in the sixth round while still bringing big league upside. A well-known prep catcher out of the Atlanta area in 2020, he ranked #122 on my draft board that year but wound up staying home to attend Georgia. He was more good than great as a hitter and ultimately failed to draw the same level of interest he had in high school, but broke out for a massive senior season in 2024 in which he slashed .354/.574/.772 with 20 home runs while batting in front of 2024 Golden Spikes Award winner and third overall pick Charlie Condon. Big and burly at a list 6'3", 235 pounds, he deploys his natural strength into true plus raw power that he tapped consistently in games in 2024. It's a really short, direct left handed swing that helped him simplify things at the plate and focus on jacking baseballs out over the right field wall. That approach continued to work for him against high level pitching in SEC play, where he hit .350/.538/.780 with 13 home runs in 29 games. In addition to the prodigious power, Collins has a discerning eye at the plate that helps him identify which pitches he can turn on while laying off the ones he can't. The approach is ahead of the pure bat to ball here, so it will be a challenge in the upper level's of pro ball against advanced pitchers who can execute quality pitches on the corners. While he has seen time behind the plate, his lack of agility has always made that a stretch and it's appeared less and less likely he would play there in pro ball. The fact that the Mets drafted him as a first baseman is a pretty big indication that they don't see a future at catcher, either. In that sense, he'll have to hit, and that seems likely. He has the upside of a 20+ home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, which would certainly play in a platoon role. Beyond walking a lot, he also finished fourth in NCAA Division I with 28 hit by pitches and led the SEC by a massive margin – no other hitter in the conference was hit by more than 20. Together with the walks, he reached base without swinging the bat in 34.7% of his plate appearances this past season. Age is a downside, as he'll be 23 in October. He's played one game so far, walking and ironically stealing a base for Low A St. Lucie despite not having stolen a base at Georgia since 2021.

10-293: RHP Brendan Girton, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $184,300. Signing bonus: $122,500 ($61,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brendan Girton represents another senior sign and gives the Mets a potential power reliever. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in far northwestern Oklahoma, he spent three seasons at Texas Tech pitching to mixed results. He transferred to Oklahoma to pitch his senior season back in his home state, but after a very strong season opening start against Tennessee (4 IP, 1 ER, 9 K), he struggled with consistency and finished with an ERA over seven and nearly a walk per inning. Girton is a power pitcher, with a fastball sitting in the mid 90's and touching 98 in short stints. Beyond the velocity, the pitch plays up further with running and riding life from a low slot and nice extension. It's really one of the better fastballs you'll find this late in the draft. His power slider shows nice late bite and dives below bats when he's going good, but he's inconsistent with it and doesn't always execute it. Above all, the 6'1" righty has below average command that has made both of his pitches play down, and that right there will be the key to pro success. Girton lacks starter upside due to that command and his lack of a changeup, though he is sturdily built and should be durable enough to thrive in a full time relief role. If he gets the command together a little, he could move quickly.

11-323: 2B Nick Roselli, Binghamton {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Mets opened up day three with a hometown pick. Nick Roselli hails from Levittown on Long Island, where he attended Division Avenue High School and hit .619 as a senior. He spent three years at Binghamton, where he hit from day one and got better each year despite breaking his hamate bone on Opening Day 2024 and missing nearly two months. Undersized at 5'10", he uses a quick left handed swing to drive the ball with much more authority than you'd expect from a smaller guy. He's shown the ability to turn on the ball to the pull side while spraying hard line drives to all fields, though that power has not shown up with wood bats and he has slugged just .293 with two home runs in 64 games over his three seasons in summer wood bat leagues. He hasn't faced the strongest competition in the America East Conference, where he has shown very strong plate discipline and bat to ball, though that approach has carried over to his wood bat leagues. With average speed and a general lack of explosiveness, both his range and arm are best suited for second base in the long run, where he has strong feel for the position and should be an average defender. It would appear as a utility infield profile with the potential to show average offensive numbers across the board at peak, though being limited to second base and left field makes that a little tougher. Regardless, the Mets will love having Nick Roselli from Levittown in the lineup if he can push his way up there. He has shown pretty well so far, hitting .278/.409/.389 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at Low A St. Lucie.

14-413: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($72,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Tanner Witt has been a known commodity not just to Texas scouts but to scouting directors for a long time now. A highly regarded two-way prep out of his Houston high school, Witt ranked #88 on my 2020 draft board and had draft interest as high as the first round, but was dead set on heading to Austin to play for the Longhorns. After a strong freshman season in 2021 and two strong starts to begin 2022, he seemed to be solidifying himself as a likely first round pick for the 2023 draft. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of that sophomore season, then did not look like himself in six abbreviated starts at the end of 2023. Still, he ranked #93 on my board that year and ranked as the top unsigned draft prospect returning to school in 2024. Unfortunately, health problems persisted into 2024 and he lasted just five short appearances before being shut down again. He's allegedly healthy now, having posted this video shortly before the draft (on his 22nd birthday no less), so the Mets will look to get him back to where he was from 2020-2022. So what was all the first round hype about? Witt's fastball sits in the low 90's, having touched 97 in the past, with huge riding action from a very high, over the top sot that counteracts the movement a little. His signature pitch is a big 12-6 curveball with tremendous depth, though it breaks so much that he doesn't always execute it where he wants it. There's a solid slider in there that he unveiled while at Texas, and his above average changeup rounds out a pretty complete arsenal. Witt has really filled out his 6'6" frame and now fully looks the part of a big league starting pitcher, with an easy, repeatable delivery that he shows great feel for. Previously, he showed an interesting double tap in his hand break in which he showed the ball to hitters before tapping it back into the glove, but watching the video linked a few sentences back it appears he has eliminated that. It also looks like he has dropped his arm slot a bit, so the extremely high release point may be no more. Witt's father, Kevin, played five sporadic seasons in the big leagues between 1998 and 2006 and the baseball IQ has clearly been passed onto Tanner, who has displayed an advanced understanding for pitching and a drive to improve. He was still figuring out how to command the baseball at the collegiate level when his injury woes started (remember, he was only fully healthy as an 18 year old freshman), and while all signs pointed to him figuring that out, it's now going to be a question mark. Durability is of course another major question mark as he has thrown just 31 innings over the past three seasons and hasn't really looked like himself since February 2022, but "himself" is a potential #2-#3 starter who could reach the majors in a hurry. The Mets have a really interesting development project in front of them and although he was a senior sign, he was young for the class and only turned 22 shortly before the draft.

Sunday, February 28, 2021

Ole Miss, Texas Tech, and Gunnar Hoglund’s coming out party

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on February 25th.

It was a gorgeous, 73 degree day at Globe Life Field on Sunday, something that wouldn’t seem out of the ordinary in Arlington, Texas, even in February. However, it stood in stark contrast to the previous week, when temperatures plummeted near zero in the very same parking lot and millions of Texans were left in the dark. I spent the week huddled in my dark apartment with ice creeping through the window frames, alternating between eating canned tuna and braving the snowy, hour-long drive through line at the Whataburger, which served as a metaphorical soup kitchen for a desperate Metroplex. By Friday, when the State Farm College Baseball Showdown was set to start, temperatures had finally peaked just above freezing, but the tournament was delayed by a day as the Lone Star State continued to grapple with busted pipes, unsafe drinking water, and continued power outages.

On the way into the ballpark on Sunday, there was an extra light-heartedness in the air, as thawed-out fans made their way past the last melting piles of snow and laughed. “I thought it was supposed to be colder today, but it’s beautiful out,” a man decked out in Red Raider red exclaimed. We were on our way to see Texas Tech match up with Ole Miss in a top ten matchup – well, technically every game that weekend was a top ten matchup. Once the TCU Horned Frogs downed the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the morning tilt, the Rebels and Red Raiders took the field.

Gunnar Hoglund

The Rebel ace could have easily started Friday, but I was lucky enough to catch him on a Sunday. Gunnar Hoglund has long been a household name for scouts, ever since he was the 36th overall pick by the Pirates out of Fivay High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2018. At the time, he showed good command of a low to mid 90’s fastball that had touched 96, but his secondary pitches needed refinement and the Pirates couldn’t meet his asking price. The big righty headed north to Oxford, Mississippi, where he held his own as a freshman in the SEC: 5.29 ERA, 53/14 K/BB in 68 IP. He came out much stronger in 2020, posting a 1.16 ERA and a 37/4 K/BB over 23.1 innings.

Coming into the season, scouts had a lot of questions for Hoglund to answer. After flashing a fastball up to 96 in high school, he regularly pitched in the upper 80’s and scraped 91-92 at his fastest for the Rebels. That 90-ish fastball came with impeccable command, arguably the best in the class, a product of a simple, clean, very easy delivery. It was clear Hoglund could throw harder if he wanted to. He had set a loopy curveball from his high school days off to the side in favor of a tighter slider, while his changeup remained his third pitch. So, we all knew he had both the arm strength and command, but would we ever see it at the same time?

Gunnar answered that in the first inning on Sunday. Right out of the gate, he sat 94-95 in the first inning and touched 96 multiple times. The slider looked sharper, too, coming in at 85-87, a few ticks higher than it had been in the past. Dru Baker, Cal Conley, and Dylan Neuse went down in order in the first, and off we went. He didn’t hold that velocity all game, instead ticking down to the 92-94 range for the bulk of his start before coming out 90-92 in his sixth and final inning, but even at the end he was throwing as hard as he ever had in Rebel blue.

While his command wasn’t pinpoint, Hoglund used his riding fastball to induce plenty of whiffs up in the zone, while his tight slider missed a number of bats in its own right. There were blemishes, such as a two run home run from Nate Rombach and an opposite field bomb from Dylan Neuse, both off fastballs, and he did walk three. However, two of the three walks were full count battles that took hard battles (Neuse) and tough takes (Kurt Wilson) to get there. In all, I was not concerned with Hoglund’s strike throwing despite his own high standards.

The final stat line wasn’t the shiniest: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 11 K.

But I choose to look at those eleven strikeouts (of twenty two batters faced), a factor of his newfound stuff. Outside of those few isolated incidents of hard contact from Rombach and Neuse, two extremely talented hitters in their own right, the majority of the Texas Tech lineup was overwhelmed by the stuff and struggled to touch him. Hoglund showed the same effortless delivery he’s always had, and as he gets more comfortable throwing in this higher velocity band, I think his command will remain plus. He was also flipping in that slider much more often than he has in the past, something else he’ll need to get comfortable with as opposed to pitching mostly off the fastball. Going forward, he’ll need to show that command, and he’ll also need to work in a changeup more often if he wants to go in the first round. But Sunday was a big step towards that.

Micah Dallas

Toeing the rubber against Hoglund was Texas Tech’s Micah Dallas, himself one of the top prospects in the Big 12. However, the North Texas native was not as sharp pitching forty miles from his hometown of Aubrey. Homeschooled in high school, he was unfazed by the Lonely Lubbock Lights (big props if you can tell me which West Texan sings that song) and was strong as a freshman (4.03 ERA, 84/28 K/BB). Then, like Hoglund, he was lights out as a sophomore in 2020 (0.57 ERA, 23/1 K/BB in 15.2 IP).

Dallas sat 90-91 for most of his outing, throwing up a few more 89’s later in the start. He leaned heavily on his low 80’s curveball, a pitch which flashes plus at its best. His delivery is not nearly as smooth as Hoglund’s, but he throws with conviction and pounds the zone nonetheless. From the start, it was clear that he did not have his best stuff, which is extremely dangerous against a lineup like Ole Miss, but he worked through it and held the Rebels off the board for the first two innings. However, they gradually began to figure him out, putting together more and more hard contact and broke through in the third. He never made it out of that inning, finishing with five runs (two earned) on three hits, two walks, and two strikeouts in 2.2 innings.

The Rebels’ five run third didn’t come out of nowhere. Jacob Gonzalez blasted a ball into the right field seats in the first inning, but it landed just to the right of the foul pole and he struck out later in the at bat. Ben Van Cleve roped a hot shot to third in the second inning, only to see it snared by Cal Conley. Trey LaFleur scorched one right at left fielder Max Marusak in the third. A few batters later, Gonzalez finally got him with a home run to the left of the foul pole, while Hayden Dunhurst and Hayden Leatherwood joined the party with singles of their own.

Micah Dallas has some work to do to prove he can start. The 89-91 velocity won’t quite be enough, and he already throws with some effort and lacks projection in his 6’2″ frame. But the building blocks are there. The curveball is an above average pitch that looks plus at its best, and it just flattened out as he leaned on it more and more heavily on Sunday. The Rebel hitters were able to sit back and wait for it. It also didn’t help that he fell behind in the count at times. The stuff played great out of the bullpen last year, and if he is forced into that role in pro ball, he could thrive with his competitiveness and ability to throw his stuff with convicion.

Brendan Girton

Once Leatherwood’s single knocked Dallas from the game, Texas Tech brought in true freshman Brendan Girton for his collegiate debut. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in northwestern Oklahoma, Girton was a notable draft prospect at nearby Shattuck High School but headed across the South Plains to campus in Lubbock. Immediately, the 6’1″, 230 pound righty put his power arm on display. In 3.1 innings, he would strike out four batters while allowing two hits and one walk, and none crossed the plate.

Girton ended the third inning on a pair of fastballs at 94, then touched 96 a few times in the fourth before dipping to more 92-93 in the fifth. He must have known the sixth would be his final inning, because he ratcheted it back up to 96 a few times to close it out. He also flashed a low 80’s slider, but really struggled to get it down. Out of the dozen or so that he threw, no more than a couple were located below the belt. Still, the fastball was effective enough to keep Rebel hitters off the slider, and overall he was the most effective Red Raider pitcher of the day. Going forward, Girton will have to work on locating that slider better, and he has a reliever outlook for now.

Hayden Dunhurst, Jacob Gonzalez

Hayden Dunhurst and Jacob Gonzalez may have grown up in very different places, but they’re two of the most talented recruits to make it to campus in Oxford over the last couple of seasons and they both had loud days at the dish. Dunhurst was a nationally-known name at Pearl River Central High School in the small southern Mississippi town of Carriere, then stayed in state for school. Gonzalez, meanwhile, was a talented draft prospect in his own right, coming all the way across the country from the Los Angeles suburb of Glendora. They were both in Arlington this weekend, and both showed why they are the future of Ole Miss baseball.

Dunhurst had already elevated his stock with five home runs in seventeen games as a freshman last year, placing himself near the top of the 2022 draft. He had himself a nice game, starting off by working a four pitch walk off Micah Dallas. In his next at bat, he lined a single into right field to give the Rebels a lead they wouldn’t give back, and he showed off his all-fields approach by lining a 93 MPH Brendan Girton fastball the other way in the sixth inning, though it was right at left fielder Max Marusak. He finished his night by knocking a ball straight into the dirt in front of home plate, only to be tagged out by catcher Nate Rombach before he left the batters box.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, had the louder night with the bat. In his first at bat of his second career game, he nearly took Dallas deep but hooked it just to the right of the foul pole. The ball had enough distance to get out, but it will show up as a strikeout in the box score. He righted the ship in the next at bat, blasting a hanging Dallas curveball to the correct side of the foul pole to tie the game at two apiece. And the next time up, he turned around 94 from Girton for a single to right. He finished his night with a strikeout at the hands of veteran lefty Eli Riechmann, but I came away extremely impressed with his bat. Gonzalez is just 18 years old, so keep an eye on him for the 2023 draft.

Nate Rombach, Dylan Neuse

Texas Tech had some interesting bats as well. Nate Rombach and Dylan Neuse both showed off for their hometown fans as sons of the Metroplex. Rombach attended the same Mansfield Legacy High School as Noah Syndergaard, then took Lubbock by storm by blasting six home runs in nineteen games as a freshman. In his first start of 2021, Rombach announced his presence loudly by blasting a 93 MPH Gunnar Hoglund fastball over the left center field fence, the first home run Hoglund had allowed in over 32 innings. In his next at bat, he got Hoglund again, this time squaring up an 87 MPH slider for a single to left field. Redshirt senior Austin Miller gave him a different look in his third at bat, and he ripped a mid 70’s curveball foul. Miller ended up catching him looking for the strikeout, so you won’t see it in the box score, but Rombach absolutely scorched three different pitches during the day – a fastball at 93, a hard slider, and a slow curveball. Max Cioffi got him swinging on a low 90’s fastball in the ninth, but Romach had already made his point for the day.

Dylan Neuse has been around a bit longer, as he has already been eligible for three different drafts before this one. The younger brother of Dodgers infielder and Oklahoma alum Sheldon Neuse, Dylan began his career at McLennan JC in Waco before transferring to Texas Tech. He hit .298/.408/.494 as a sophomore in 2019 then .355/.438/.487 as a junior in 2020, but went undrafted in the shortened event. Gunnar Hoglund struck out the Fort Worth native in that first-inning-heard-round-the-country mentioned earlier, but Neuse made adjustments and got his payback. He worked a really tough full count walk off the command master in the third inning, showing off his exceptional plate discipline. Then in the sixth inning, he really got Hoglund, taking 92 the other way for an opposite field home run. Anybody concerned about the power output from the 5’9″ right handed hitter likely came away less so after seeing that. Neuse did drop a fly ball near the warning track in center field, which wasn’t a great look but he might not have much experience playing in indoor stadiums. In all, he profiles as an all-around player who doesn’t stand out with any particular tool, but can beat you with strong feel for the barrel and the ability to make his tools play up.

Peyton Pallette

We’ll finish off with Peyton Pallette, who started on the mound for Arkansas against Texas. I needed to get home for something and couldn’t stay the whole time, but I caught the first two innings and I’m glad I did. Benton High School outside of Little Rock has been good to Arkansas before, sending them Cliff Lee, and they might have struck gold again. Pallette got into four games as a true freshman last year, allowing three runs (one earned) over 5.2 innings in relief. He wasn’t the most likely candidate to start a top ten matchup on a loaded pitching staff that includes Patrick Wicklander, Connor Noland, Zebulon Vermillion, and even freshman Nick Griffin, so I was slightly disappointed to I didn’t get to see a bigger name.

It took precisely one pitch, a 95 mile per hour fastball, to realize I was in for a treat. Before I could blink, Pallette had set down Austin Todd, Eric Kennedy, and Mike Antico in order, and this wasn’t just any trio; the three had 373 games and 342 hits combined under their belts, making for one of the most experienced, disciplined, and consistent top three’s of any lineup in the country. They didn’t look like it Sunday. Pallette never threw a fastball under 95 as he blew pitch after pitch by them, snapping off a sharp breaking ball as well that nobody could touch.

It only took Texas starter Tristan Stevens ten pitches to work through the bottom of the first inning, so I barely had a chance to even process what I just saw before he was back on the mound again. As brilliant as the first inning was, the second was better. Pallette set down Zach Zubia, Trey Faltine, and Ivan Melendez on strikes, the latter two on six straight fastballs at 95. Unreal. Unfortunately I had to leave after that sixth straight strike, but he went on to toss 4.1 shutout innings and strike out eight of the seventeen batters he faced. He wasn’t a priority follow coming into the season, but with just one start he’s rocketed himself into 2022 draft conversation with that wicked fastball/curveball combination.