2023 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12 Conference

2022 draftees: 47. Top school: Oklahoma (11)
2022 preseason writeup (published 9/18/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-7, Cubs: RHP Cade Horton (Oklahoma)
1-12, Tigers: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech)
CBA-37, Guardians: RHP Justin Campbell (Oklahoma State)
2-43, Diamondbacks: 1B Ivan Melendez (Texas)
2-45, Nationals: LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma)
2-51, Tigers: SS Peyton Graham (Oklahoma)

2022 was a banner year draft-wise for the Big 12, which crushed 2021's total of 38 players drafted by nine. The two Oklahoma schools alone combined for twenty draftees, including four of the first 51 picks, and the the University of Oklahoma led all schools nationwide with eleven draftees. This year, Oklahoma State will lead the way at least early on after placing four names in the top nine prospects heading into the season, certainly aided by the return of Nolan McLean, the highest drafted player a year ago to go unsigned. Let's take a look at those top ten draft prospects in the Big 12.

1. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/22/2002. Hometown: West Jordan, UT.
2022: 13 HR, .314/.454/.576, 10 SB, 40/55 K/BB in 59 games.
One of the most consistent hitters in the Big 12 over the past couple seasons is finally draft eligible, and scouts couldn't be more excited. Brayden Taylor needed zero time to adjust to the college game, immediately hitting his way into the TCU starting lineup as a freshman and slashing .319/.450/.574 with 25 home runs and far more walks (104) than strikeouts (86) in 117 games so far. He had a chance to build his stock further against elite competition this summer, but didn't make much impact with the Collegiate National Team and hit a solid if unspectacular .269/.361/.385 with two home runs in 26 games in the Cape Cod League. Taylor stands out for an extremely professional approach at the plate, which is why he was able to adjust to Big 12 pitching so easily and also why he rarely slumps. He rarely ever chases out of the zone and won't swing through many hittable pitches either, and only gets into minor strikeout trouble because he tends to work deep counts. The Salt Lake City-area product has a very loose, whippy barrel that remains long through the zone, helping him work to all fields effectively while further limiting that swing and miss. There is solid power in the tank, with the ability to turn on balls and send them out consistently to the pull side. To really make the most of his power potential, he'll want to tack on additional strength to his skinny 6'1" frame, which would help that power play better to all fields and really push him into top ten consideration. With a late May birthday that will have him turn 21 less than two months before the draft, he is young for the class and has that much more time to fill out. Furthermore, his swing is more oriented for line drives for now and adding loft may help if he chooses to go that route. Either way, it's at least average power for now combined with a plus hit tool, so 15-20 home runs per year with high on-base percentages are well within reach. Defensively, he has played mostly third base to this point and has looked very solid, so a team bullish on his glove could give him a shot at shortstop. Overall, I see this package as very similar to a left handed Cade Doughty, and I really liked Doughty as a first rounder up until a late season slump last year dropped him to the second compensation round. Taylor has a very good shot at the first round as it stands now, and if he comes out in the spring a little more physical, the top ten picks are a possibility.

2. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 2/23/2002. Hometown: Hanford, CA.
2022 (@ Long Beach State): 4-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 111/29 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Juaron Watts-Brown is slowly but steadily trending up and up and up. He was originally a Texas Tech commit, but decided to stay in his home state and attend Long Beach State at first. After sitting out his freshman season in 2021, he announced his presence loudly in 2022 and parlayed that into a strong run through the Cape Cod League (3.83 ERA, 53/16 K/BB in 40 innings). Now he'll head to the Big 12 like he originally planned, but he'll move past Lubbock on his way to Stillwater. Watts-Brown is throwing harder and harder, now sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 96 while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His slider and curveball both have two-plane action, but remain distinct from each other and look like above average pitches, while his changeup provides a fourth average or better pitch. Everything plays up from a pretty ideal release, as he gets down the mound extremely well to create great extension and a lower release point, in turn giving his fastball nice riding life. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound with plenty of projection remaining, making for a very fun ball of clay for Josh Holliday's staff and eventually a pro staff to play with. For now, the command is fringe-average and could use some improvement, as he can yank his front side at times and lose his release point. It's nothing major and I don't expect it to hold back his profile, which looks to fit somewhere in the second round range for now but which could easily leap into the first round if he takes well to the Big 12. I'm personally a believer which is why I rank him as the best pitching prospect in the conference.

3. RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 215 lbs. Born 7/11/2002. Hometown: Houston, TX.
2022: 2-0, 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 14/3 K/BB in 11 innings.
One of the more highly regarded recruits to reach campus following the 2020 draft, Tanner Witt jumped straight into a prominent role in the Longhorn bullpen as a true freshman in 2021 and put up a 3.16 ERA and a 73/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings. Transitioning into the rotation in 2022, he looked very sharp in starts against Rice and Alabama to start the season, pitching his way into top ten consideration for 2023, but went down with Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched since. The surgery will keep him out for at least the early part of 2023, though it's not out of the question that he could return later in the season and reclaim some of that draft stock. Even without much track record as a starter, it's hard not to like Witt. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96-97 at his best, with natural riding action above what most others are capable of. Interestingly, the 6'5" righty throws from an extremely high release point that puts steep downhill angle on the ball, so those two characteristics counteract each other a little bit. Witt drops in a big 12-6 curveball that he has feel to land for strikes, though it can catch too much of the plate at times and get hit. He also shows an average slider and an above average changeup, giving him a full arsenal of four average or better pitches. The Houston native is very advanced for his age, repeating his delivery well and showing solid command of his four pitch mix, looking every bit like a starting pitcher. He does have an interesting quirk in his delivery where he pulls the ball out of his glove briefly at the top of his leg lift, then taps it back in before bringing out for real. This gives hitters an extra look at his grip, which could become a problem with more seasoned pro hitters, but it's also not a difficult fix. The injury does put a dent in his stock simply because he doesn't get to show what he's capable of, but Witt is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until the third day of the draft, so he's playing with a little bit of house money there. He's also extremely projectable and looks durable aside from the elbow surgery, which at this point is pretty inevitable for any pitcher. Witt looks like a high probability mid-rotation starter.

4. SS Nick Goodwin, Kansas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/6/2001. Hometown: Overland Park, KS.
2022: 11 HR, .255/.354/.525, 6 SB, 57/30 K/BB in 57 games.
Nick Goodwin may not have a carrying tool, but he does a lot well and has a chance to be a real breakout performer in 2023 after holding down a very solid .267/.354/.502 slash line over two years at Kansas State so far. In addition to being a dependable cog for the Wildcats, he showed similarly well in the Cape Cod League with a .267/.342/.466 line, six homers, and a 42/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He's not huge, but he taps average power to all fields with a quick right handed swing that puts good loft on the ball and effectively maximizes his strength. There is some swing and miss, as his strikeout rate jumped from 19.3% as a freshman to 23.1% as a sophomore and clocked in at 22.8% on the Cape, but he has consistently performed well against high level pitching both in the Big 12 and on the Cape so it's not a huge concern. It would be nice though if he could at least cut that down below 20% in 2022, and if he could get it down around 15-16% or so while maintaining his power, this suddenly goes from a third round profile to something much more interesting. Defensively, he has handled shortstop at Kansas State well and will get a chance to play there in pro ball, though he may not be quite explosive enough to make it work long term and could fit better at second or third base. Overall, there is upside of a 15-20 home run infield bat with decent on-base percentages if he cuts down his strikeouts a little, and he'd fit well as a utility infielder even if he does continue to strikeout out at a moderate rate.

5. 2B Roc Riggio, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'9", 180 lbs. Born 6/11/2002. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2022: 11 HR, .295/.413/.519, 2 SB, 58/34 K/BB in 54 games.
If you watched the 2022 Oklahoma State Cowboys, it would have been hard not to notice Roc Riggio. The 5'9" showman with long hair dyed bright blond plays with as much energy as anybody on the field, the epitome of a new-school, let-the-kids-play electric factory. Having earned considerable draft interest out of his Los Angeles-area high school in 2021, he reached campus in Stillwater and immediately hit his way into the starting lineup as a freshman, acting as a catalyst for one of the best lineups in the country with his bat flips and all-out style of play. Riggio continued on to the Cape Cod League over the summer but couldn't quite match his big freshman season, slashing just .200/.258/.339 with three home runs and a 37/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. The profile here is carried by the bat, as he takes big hacks from the left side to tap above average power despite his small frame. He does a good job of getting loft under ball when it's down in the zone while keeping a more level swing up in the zone, boding well for both his future power production and contact ability, though for now he's still adjusting to college level pitching and has some swing and miss in his game. He struck out 22.4% of the time for Oklahoma State this spring then ran a 29.6% K rate on the Cape, so bringing that down will be high on the priority list. Right now he profiles for 20+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages if he can. Riggio is not the greatest athlete and will have to work to remain at second base, with the outfield a real possibility if he gets pushed by a better defender in pro ball, so his value will rely on his ability to hit pro pitching. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he's younger than most of the juniors he'll compete against for draft position and turns 21 a month before the draft.

6. SS Marcus Brown, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11", 185 lbs. Born 9/14/2001. Hometown: Springdale, AR.
2022: 4 HR, .316/.378/.441, 5 SB, 38/21 K/BB in 64 games.
Roc Riggio may be the most exciting player on the Oklahoma State roster, but the guy playing right across the bag from him is the school's flashiest defender. Springy and athletic, Marcus Brown moves very well around the dirt and makes it look easy out there with an above average arm. That glove will be the carrying tool in his profile, but he can swing it a little bit too. Employing a loose left handed hack that gets the barrel long through the zone and produces plenty of line drive contact, he puts nearly everything in play and struck out just 13.7% of the time in 2022, easily the lowest mark on this list. A career .323/.388/.436 hitter in Stillwater, like Riggio he struggled to make an impact on the Cape and slashed just .233/.315/.295 in 44 games there. His 20% strikeout rate was much lower than Riggio's 29.6%, but still elevated above his number with the Cowboys as he struggled to find gaps and fences with wood bats. Still, I remain fairly optimistic on the bat especially given that his glove will buy it plenty of time to develop. Though he's undersized at 5'11", he naturally whips the barrel through the zone with authority and getting even a little bit stronger could help him threaten for double digit home run totals in pro ball. He'll always make plenty of contact and keep defenses on their toes, though the minimal swing and miss in his game to date does keep his walk rates down – 7.6% at OSU and 6.1% on the Cape.

7. OF Elijah Nuñez, Texas Christian.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 12/6/2001. Hometown: Arlington, TX.
2022: 1 HR, .281/.435/.368, 31 SB, 48/58 K/BB in 60 games.
Elijah Nuñez brings an old school profile to the ballpark here, so he stands in contrast to many other players scouts will be looking at. A glove-first guy like Marcus Brown, he will certainly stick in center field with plenty of speed and exceptional feel for the position, immediately providing a strong baseline of value. It's easier to carry a profile with your glove if you catch or play a mean shortstop like Brown, but Nuñez gets it done in center field with the best of them. He's also a very patient hitter at the plate that doesn't swing and miss much (16.7% strikeout rate) and draws a ton of walks. In fact his 58 free passes tied for eighth in the nation last year, a feat made even more impressive when you consider he was younger than all seven players ahead of him as well as the guy tied with him, and also the fact that he did so in fewer games than all but one player in that group. When he does swing at the ball, he's a gap to gap line drive hitter that doesn't try to do too much, with below average power that has manifested in just two home runs in 114 career games for the Horned Frogs. While the glove and legs give his profile plenty of baseline value, his offensive profile will be reliant on keeping those on-base percentages high because he likely won't threaten for double digit home runs. To me, it's a pretty clear fourth outfield profile but one that has a chance to be extremely valuable.

8. RHP Cam Brown, Texas Christian.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 215 lbs. Born 10/15/2001. Hometown: Flower Mound, TX.
2022: 5-2, 4.42 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 49/31 K/BB in 53 innings.
Cam Brown is very much an enigma at this point. One of the stars of the showcase circuit in the summer of 2019, he was pitching his way into the top two rounds but did not look like himself during his COVID-shortened senior spring in 2020. That led him to campus at TCU, where he barely pitched as a freshman and had an up and down sophomore season in which he did not miss nearly as many bats as hoped. Taking his talents to the Cape Cod League over the summer, he pitched to mixed results once more and allowed seven runs in nine innings with an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio. At his best, Brown looks like a bona fide impact starting pitcher, running his fastball into the upper 90's and flashing above average with his entire arsenal of secondaries, consisting of a slider, curve, and changeup. It's really loud stuff from a big league body, but he's just never been able to put it all together. The delivery can get stiff and he struggles to command it all, often falling behind in the count and leaving pitches over the plate to get hit or giving up free passes. I'm worried that the fastball may play a bit true out of his hand and play below its low to mid 90's velocity, and inconsistent secondaries led to just a 20.6% strikeout rate last year. The DFW native could benefit from a pro development program to help him find more deception and perhaps improve his command a tick, in which case he really could pull it all together and become a mid-rotation starter in the majors. At some point, though, you're going to want to see some results and he just hasn't missed enough bats in the Big 12 yet to feel comfortable projecting him in that role. But that's why you get three years in college, right?

9. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Garner, NC.
2022: 19 HR, .285/.397/.595, 2 SB, 107/37 K/BB in 64 games.
2022: 2-1, 5.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 39/13 K/BB in 25.1 innings.
Nolan McLean will rank as the ninth best prospect in the Big 12 for the second year in a row after the Orioles failed to meet his signing bonus demands at the 81st overall pick last year, making him the highest drafted player to go unsigned. Eligible as a sophomore last year, he'll still be close to age appropriate this year and will turn 22 just after the draft, making him just a couple months older than Nick Goodwin, Marcus Brown, and Cam Brown. A true two-way player, he was one of three Cowboys to appear in all 64 games last year (along with #6 prospect Marcus Brown) and also made 23 appearances on the mound, so scouts have seen him plenty to this point. At the plate, McLean stands out for plus-plus raw power as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run that ranks among the best in the country. He's big and strong at 6'3" with long arms that naturally channel that strength into leverage and bat speed, but he has been extremely inconsistent to this point thanks in large part to a well below average hit tool. In fact, his 107 strikeouts this past season set an all time Division I record, as he struggles to adjust his grooved swing to correct for mistakes in pitch/location identification. The power is absolutely tantalizing, but when you strike out 36.9% (!) of the time, it's hard to get scouts to buy in. Going back to school will give him a chance to at least bring that number down below 30% and ideally closer to 25%, where scouts could slap a 40 grade on his hit tool and call it a risk worth taking. The Orioles actually drafted him as a pitcher this past season, and he'll have an opportunity to step into a larger role for Oklahoma State as the Cowboys lost their top seven arms by innings pitched to the draft, the transfer portal, or graduation. He can touch the upper 90's in short stints and is gradually improving his feel for spin with both a curveball and slider in hand, together helping him miss enough bats to run a very strong 35.1% strikeout rate. Below average command, in addition to his duties at third base, have kept him in the bullpen so far, but it would be interesting to see if Josh Holliday and co. give him a shot in the rotation this spring with so many spots opening up. If he takes another step forward with that command, suddenly the arm strength and feel for spin become really interesting here.

10. LHP Lucas Gordon, Texas.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/13/2002. Hometown: Los Angeles, CA.
2022: 7-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 77/26 K/BB in 85.2 innings.
Once Tanner Witt gets healthy, the 2023 Texas rotation will have a very similar feel draft-wise to the 2021 rotation. Witt, like Ty Madden, is a potential first rounder from Houston with a power fastball from a high slot and strong command, while Lucas Gordon, like Pete Hansen, is a soft tossing command/control lefty from California. Funny how that works out sometimes. Gordon is coming off a very strong sophomore season in Austin where he formed a strong one-two punch with Hansen, forcing his way into draft conversations by his performance even if the stuff doesn't quite match up yet. He sits around 90 with his fastball and can get up to about 94 at best with some run, so it's an average pitch. Gordon has strong feel for both his sweepy slider and slurvy curveball, but they lack the power and bite you look for in a swing and miss secondary offering. His best pitch is a plus changeup with excellent fading action, rounding out a full big league arsenal. The 6'1" lefty repeats his delivery very well with above average command of both his fastball and his offspeeds, showing the ability to spot everything to both sides of the plate, and he ran a very respectable 7.2% walk rate as a sophomore. The stuff can get hit hard when he leaves it up and over the plate, and in aggregate he didn't miss many bats with just a 21.2% strikeout rate. Scouts know that Gordon can pound the strike zone and control at bats, so in 2023 they'll look for the Los Angeles product to show a little more velocity on his fastball and/or power on his breaking balls to help grow his margin for error a little bit. It's a back-end starter profile if he can.

Honorable Mention: LHP Ben Hampton, West Virginia.
Ben Hampton was the first player off the list, but I wanted to give him his due after an incredible run through the Cape Cod League. He was draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 but didn't get much interest after posting a 4.66 ERA and a 90/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings at West Virginia, but reached another level on the Cape with a 2.27 ERA and a 51/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings. The fastball velocity just isn't there yet, parking in the upper 80's and rarely scratching 90, but he hides it very well and gets good ride on it, making it something of an invisiball. His primary offspeed pitch is a sweepy slider with depth that he locates well, and everything plays up because he mixes and matches his stuff to keep hitters off balance. There is not much projection remaining in his stocky 6'1" frame so there is no guarantee he ever consistently reaches the low 90's, where the profile would be much more attractive. Still, there are some similarities to Monmouth's Trey Dombroski a year ago, who went in the fourth round to the Astros, even if Hampton is a good four inches shorter. Despite the exceptional numbers on the Cape, Hampton was up and down in conference play last year (6.15 ERA, 46/17 K/BB in 41 IP) and has never had success against high level competition before this summer. Throw in that he's old for the class, turning 22 a few weeks after the draft, and it's hard to know exactly what to make of the soft tossing Wisconsinite. 

2023 MLB Draft: An early look at the Pac-12 Conference

2022 draftees: 41. Top school: Oregon State (8)
2022 preseason writeup (published 9/12/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-19, A's: C Daniel Susac (Arizona)
1-22, Cardinals: LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State)
CBA-33, Orioles: OF Dylan Beavers (California)
2-60, Blue Jays: SS Josh Kasevich (Oregon)
2-64, Astros: OF Jacob Melton (Oregon State)
2-65, Rays: OF Brock Jones (Stanford)
CBB-73, Reds: OF Justin Boyd (Oregon State)

The Pac-12 can be the forgotten Power Five conference in football and basketball some years, but baseball is its best sport with schools like UCLA, Stanford, Oregon State, and Arizona consistently competing for College World Series spots every year. Even though they'll lose a powerhouse program in UCLA in addition to USC to the Big Ten, and possibly others to other conferences, they're deep enough in baseball to withstand realignment better than in football or basketball. Throw in the presence of other West Coast powers like Gonzaga, UC Santa Barbara, and San Diego State, among others, that could potentially be absorbed, and Pac-12 baseball isn't going anywhere. As it stands today, though, they're coming off a year with three picks in the first 33 names selected. It's also fitting that Oregon State, who seems less likely to depart the conference than some other schools, had the most draftees with eight and possesses the conference's most recent National Championship after winning in 2018. 

This year, Stanford appears to be the standard bearer for the conference with four names in the top twelve prospects and a few more that just missed the list. Three transfers also grace this list, highlighting that conference realignment isn't the only factor creating a new era in college athletics. With that, let's take a look at the conference's top twelve 2023 draft prospects heading into 2022-2023 academic year.

*Note: when this was originally published, I completely overlooked the University of Arizona. So the original version of this article did not include Chase Davis or TJ Nichols, and this new version will go twelve deep by virtue of already having done the write ups.

1. 2B Tommy Troy, Stanford.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 195 lbs. Born 1/17/2002. Hometown: Los Gatos, CA.
2022: 7 HR, .339/.371/.568, 5 SB, 38/9 K/BB in 55 games.
It appeared that the Pac-12 would be littered with second to third round types for this year's draft, but Tommy Troy made a loud statement over the summer to establish himself as the clear-cut best prospect in the conference for now. After showing well as a regular in Stanford's lineup as a freshman, he broke out to hit .339/.371/.568 in 2022 and acted as one of the major catalysts in the school's run to Omaha. That put him on the map for late day one of the draft, but it was his performance over the summer that really got scouts buzzing about a potential first round selection. Playing for Cotuit, he slashed .313/.385/.539 with five home runs over 34 games against some of the best pitching in the country, which built off a strong 2021 run through the league as well. Point is, Troy has not stopped hitting for over a year now, whether that be on the Cape, in the Pac-12, or in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Standing just 5'10", he gets by with exceptional feel for the barrel that helps him spray hard line drives all around the field, posting higher exit velocities than you'd expect from a smaller guy. The Bay Area product takes very strong at bats never looks overmatched in the box, aiding what is a plus hit tool overall. Because he makes so much contact, he doesn't walk much at this point in his career, so that will be a small thing to watch for in 2022. Troy probably doesn't project to be a big home run threat, but as was previously mentioned, he hits the ball very hard for a smaller guy and could tap average or better power in pro ball. That could mean 15-20 home runs a year in the majors with high batting averages. Troy is not a standout defender, but he gets the job done at all the up-the-middle positions and would make a strong second baseman or a solid utility man glove-wise. Right now, he looks like a mid to late first rounder.

2. OF Chase Davis, Arizona.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 215 lbs. Born 12/5/2001. Hometown: Elk Grove, CA.
2022: 18 HR, .289/.414/.583, 4 SB, 66/48 K/BB in 63 games.
Chase Davis had significant draft interest as high as the second round in 2020, but a high asking price landed him in Arizona with fellow Sacramento-area prep stars Daniel Susac (now with the A's) and TJ Nichols. While Susac and Nichols immediately stepped into prominent roles, Davis started just one game as a freshman while he was buried by one of the deepest offenses in the country, but he broke out with 18 home runs and a .400+ OBP upon receiving every day playing time in 2022. More than anything, Davis is known for his power. One of the strongest players in the Pac-12, he is loaded with lean muscle that helps him whip the bat through the zone at explosive speed. Mostly a pull hitter, he can demolish a baseball to the pull side but is plenty strong enough to put one out the other way, and baseball's new anti-shift rules will really help him. He's very patient in the box but has a long swing that begins with significant bat wrap, causing some swing and miss and ultimately leading to 45.5% of his plate appearances in 2022 leading to one of the three true outcomes (22.8% strikeouts, 16.6% walks, 6.2% home runs). Davis may always deal with hot and cold streaks due to his all or nothing approach in the box, but he could become a 30+ home run bat if things go right more than they go wrong. He'll also provide value on defense, where he possesses a plus-plus arm in the outfield and enough speed to make him an above average defender in right field. All eyes will be on how he handles Pac-12 pitching in 2023, and if he can get his strikeout rate below 20% without sacrificing pop, it's a first round profile for me.

3. LHP Ross Dunn, Arizona State.

Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'3", 220 lbs. Born 2/20/2002. Hometown: Salt Lake City, UT.
2022 (@ Florida State): 2-4, 4.88 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 77/26 K/BB in 48 innings.
Those aren't the loudest numbers for Ross Dunn, but it's important to remember that he was pitching in an ACC that was absolutely loaded with many of the best lineups in the country. After serving as the Sunday starter in an all-lefty weekend rotation at Florida State that saw both Parker Messick (Guardians) and Bryce Hubbart (Reds) go in the top one hundred picks, Dunn will transfer closer to home at Arizona State and look to join his southpaw counterparts in that draft range. He hasn't quite put it together yet, but the pieces are there. The Salt Lake City native has plenty of arm strength and can run his fastball up to 96, though many times he can sit closer to 90. His slider is his best pitch for now, grading out above average and flashing plus when it's on with late, hard bite. He also adds a solid changeup that gives him a very strong three pitch mix, and it all comes from a very projectable 6'3" frame that figures to help him add velocity in a pro conditioning program. With a loose, easy delivery, he has improved his strike throwing considerably but is still looking for more consistency in that regard. It's very easy to project Dunn as at least a back-end starter, and if he can get more consistent with his command and maintain his peak fastball velocity more consistently as well, he could become an impact arm and shoot himself into the first round. For now, it looks like more of a second round profile.

4. RHP TJ Nichols, Arizona.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 6/24/2002. Hometown: Roseville, CA.

2022: 6-4, 5.50 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 84/38 K/BB in 88.1 innings.

One of the better freshman arms to reach campus in 2021, TJ Nichols stepped right into a prominent swingman role for a loaded Arizona team and performed well, putting his name in early consideration for the first round in 2023. Despite holding down the Friday night role all season long in Tucson, he didn't quite take the step forward many where expecting as he allowed at least three earned runs in each of his final ten starts and was blown up for seven apiece against Washington and Oregon. Still, he remains firmly on scouts' radars as one of the Pac-12's top breakout candidates in 2023, and with good reason. Nichols sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for up to 98-99 at his best, coming from a lower slot that makes for a tougher read. His slider has been inconsistent and lets hitters sit on his fastball when it's not working, but it's an above average pitch when it's on. The Sacramento-area product also adds a solid changeup to round out his arsenal. He possesses the prototypical projectable frame at a skinny 6'4", so it's not out of the question that he could continue to add velocity and bump triple digits one day. For now, he'll want to focus on his inconsistent command that comes from an equally inconsistent release point, and he does throw with moderate effort. While it's far from a finished product, nothing in Nichols' profile is egregious and small steps forward with the consistency of his offspeeds and command could do wonders for his draft stock, and he could pitch his way into the first round if he breaks out like some expect. Despite Hi Corbett Field's deep dimensions, Tucson is not an easy place to pitch with the thin, dry desert air up nearly 2500 feet above sea level, and pitchers like Tylor Megill (Mets) and Chase Silseth (Angels) have gone on to success in pro ball despite high ERA's with the Wildcats.

5. RHP Alonzo Tredwell, UCLA.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'8", 230 lbs. Born 5/8/2002. Hometown: Coto De Caza, CA.
2022: 4-1, 2.11 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 62/6 K/BB in 47 innings.
This is a very interesting one. Part of UCLA's unbelievably loaded freshman class a year ago, Alonzo Tredwell earned some day two draft interest out of Mater Dei High School in Orange County and is eligible again as a sophomore because he is a year older than many of his classmates. He did plenty to build his stock in that one year on campus, posting a 2.11 ERA out of the UCLA bullpen while striking out 34.1% of his opponents to just a 3.3% walk rate. Variously listed at 6'7" or 6'8" depending on the source, the word of the day here is extension. Tredwell gets down the mound extremely well and releases the ball right in front of the hitter's face, immediately making for a very tough look before you even get to the rest of the profile. He currently sits in the low 90's and tops out around 93, so for now it's more the extension and ride than the velocity that makes his fastball play up. Tredwell mostly pitches off that fastball, but he does flip in a solid breaking ball and a decent changeup that both need more refinement. Fortunately this is not solely a projection play, as he has gotten much better at repeating his delivery and showed plus control in 2022, with the command hopefully coming in behind that as he gets older. Throw in great athleticism for his size and there is a ton to work with in this profile, but he will need to refine his arsenal itself in order to succeed as a starter in pro ball. Still, the floor is already very high as a high leverage reliever that can control the zone and give hitters a different look.

6. 3B Drew Bowser, Stanford.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 220 lbs. Born 10/2/2001. Hometown: Los Angeles, CA.
2022: 18 HR, .293/.350/.573, 0 SB, 77/20 K/BB in 62 games.
Drew Bowser is bound to present one of the most polarizing profiles in this year's draft. A highly heralded recruit who earned draft consideration as high as the second round in 2020, he made it to campus at Stanford and immediately hit .302/.361/.487 as a true freshman playing every day. Bowser tapped much more power in 2022, jumping his home run total from 7 to 18 and bumping his ISO (SLG - AVG) from .185 to .280, but that also came at the expense of his contact ability and his strikeout rate ballooned from a respectable 17.4% to an ugly 29.3%. Meanwhile, he has struggled over two years on the Cape, slashing .181/.278/.234 over 34 games, and there are serious questions about his ability to perform against pro pitching. Still, you can't deny the power. Bowser shows easy plus power from a simple right handed swing and a big, strong, 6'4" frame, causing the ball to jump off his bat to all fields in a way most hitters can't match. Combine that with a strong track record of hitting in the Pac-12 as well as back in his prep days, and there is serious upside in this bat. He'll have to cut down significantly on his chases in order to reach that lofty season, but if he can get his strikeout rate below 19-20% in 2023 while consistently tapping his power in games, he could go in the first round. The defense is so-so for now, with enough arm strength to play third base but a bit of an inconsistent glove that could force him to first base if he doesn't make some refinements there. Showing he can stick at third, of course, will help take some pressure off his hit tool.

7. SS Luke Keaschall, Arizona State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 170 lbs. Born 8/15/2002. Hometown: Watsonville, CA.
2022 (@ San Francisco): 8 HR, .305/.445/.502, 30 SB, 34/37 K/BB in 57 games.
Ross Dunn isn't the only transfer on Arizona State's roster looking to go on day one of the draft. Luke Keaschall had a very successful pair of seasons at San Francisco and will look to continue that success in the Pac-12, and there is every reason to believe it will translate. In addition to slashing .312/.427/.489 over two years on The Hilltop, he also hit .280/.345/.403 through 67 games over two years in the Cape Cod League, proving that he can handle high level pitching with no issue. He stands out for exceptional feel for the barrel, with tremendous adjustability in his right handed swing that enables him to square up virtually everything thrown his way. It's an above average hit tool that could grade out as plus with a strong season in Tempe, so he should transition easily not only to the Pac-12 but to pro ball when that comes around. For now, the power is below average as he lacks the present strength to really put carry on that high quantity of squared up baseballs. Keaschall is young for the class and won't turn 21 until after the draft, which does lend some hope that he can tack on strength to his skinny 6' frame, but for now I'm not sold that he'll consistently reach double digit home runs in the majors. He may have to rely on high on-base percentages to provide value, though his defensive versatility will help take some pressure off that power. He saw time all over the infield at San Francisco and also appeared regularly in the outfield on the Cape, helping give a floor as a speedy utility man that can get on base. If he does tack on some power, it suddenly becomes a very well-rounded profile.

8. 1B Garret Forrester, Oregon State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 11/11/2001. Hometown: Fair Oaks, CA.
2022: 9 HR, .332/.480/.498, 1 SB, 48/64 K/BB in 64 games.
If it breaks right, Garret Forrester could be the right handed Kyle Manzardo, who is now tearing it up in the Rays organization after coming out of Washington State. Forrester stands out for his exceptional plate discipline, coming off a 2022 where he walked at an extremely high 20.8% rate and ran a .480 on-base percentage. He rarely ever chases, but if you come into the strike zone, he also rarely misses a good pitch to hit, so he never gets himself out. He uses a line drive swing from the right side to spray the ball around the field with authority, but there is some power in the tank when he turns on one and he could profile for 15-plus home runs a year at the major league level. Given that it's a first base-only profile, there is some pressure for the power to show up even with the plus hit tool. Nobody doubts Forrester's ability to handle pro pitching and get on base, but if he wants to go in the top couple rounds, he will have to tap that power in games. Kyle Manzardo represents what could happen if things go well, but the floor is still something like Cal's (now the Padres') Nathan Martorella, to continue with the West Coast theme.

9. 3B Kyle Karros, UCLA.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 225 lbs. Born 7/26/2002. Hometown: Manhattan Beach, CA.
2022: 6 HR, .308/.365/.473, 0 SB, 43/18 K/BB in 43 games.
The Karros family has come to be synonymous with both UCLA and Dodgers baseball. Eric was drafted out of the school in 1988 and played for the Dodgers from 1991-2002 (where he hit 270 of his 284 career home runs), while son Jared holds a 3.51 ERA over 41 career innings for the Bruins and signed with the Dodgers in the sixteenth round this year. Now, younger brother Kyle is ready to cap off his UCLA story and possibly even end up a Dodger if history is any indication. Kyle is coming off a strong sophomore season in which he slashed .308/.365/.473 despite missing some time due to injury, but there is plenty of untapped potential here and he could be primed for an even bigger breakout. He's an aggressive hitter with a bit of a swoopy swing that can get in and out of the zone quickly, leading to a 21.7% strikeout rate last year to just a 9.1% walk rate, so the hit tool is fringy for now. However, his long, lean 6'5" frame gives him plenty of leverage when he catches the ball out front and helps him really impact it well. As he continues to get stronger and fill out that big frame, he could get to above average or even plus power in time. For now, there is a bit of a long way to go and that fringy hit tool got him into trouble on the Cape, where he slashed just .157/.279/.157 in 18 games. The glove does buy the bat some slack, as Karros moves very well at the hot corner and shows off a plus arm that will help him not only stick, but potentially be an asset out there. Like his teammate Alonzo Tredwell on this list, he's mostly a projection play for now, but one with high upside between his size, athleticism, and bloodlines. He's also young for the class to boot, not turning 21 until after the draft.

10. LHP Ryan Bruno, Stanford.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 220 lbs. Born 1/4/2002. Hometown: Wellington, FL.
2022: 6-1, 2.75 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 71/35 K/BB in 39.2 innings.
Stanford has landed some huge recruits from east of the Mississippi River recently, notably Braden Montgomery (Madison, MS), Tommy O'Rourke (Morristown, NJ), and our man here, Ryan Bruno (Wellington, FL). Always noted more for his stuff than his command, Bruno barely pitched as a freshman in 2021 when he walked 14 of the 29 batters he faced in four innings. Pulling it together enough to get consistent innings in 2022, he posted a 2.75 ERA and a 71/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.2 innings, dropping that walk rate from 48.3% to 19.8%. His command has limited him to a bullpen role so far, and it remains to be seen if he throws enough strikes to earn a rotation spot this spring. He has cleaned up his delivery steadily in Palo Alto but still struggles to repeat it, making it difficult to rein in his big stuff. He can run his fastball up to 97 with tough angle from a cross-body delivery, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's in short stints. Bruno's breaking ball is a big, slurvy slider with deep bite, helping him miss a ton of bats and run 40%+ strikeout rates. He also adds in a solid changeup that would make any transition to the rotation a bit easier. If the 6'3" lefty can come out with even fringe-average command in 2023, it would go a long way towards helping teams visualize him in a big league role, as the track record for college relievers is very spotty at this point. The stuff is loud and can overwhelm Pac-12 hitters when it's located, and it's sure to play in pro ball if he can stay ahead in counts.

11. OF Owen Diodati, Oregon.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'2", 220 lbs. Born 8/17/2001. Hometown: Niagara Falls, ON.
2022 (@ Alabama): 8 HR, .242/.360/.439, 3 SB, 43/25 K/BB in 49 games.
Owen Diodati has been a known commodity to area scouts all over North America, first as a notable prep in Ontario, then as a freshman sensation at Alabama in 2020 and now coming in to play at Oregon. After hitting .309/.431/.673 in his shortened freshman season, scouts were very excited to see what he could do over a larger sample in Tuscaloosa and he was one of the bigger names for the 2022 draft very early in the process. Unfortunately, neither his sophomore (.230/.314/.420, 27.0% K rate) nor junior (.242/.360/.439, 23.1% K rate) seasons lived up to the hype and he went undrafted in 2022. He wound up transferring to Oregon and spent the summer in the Cape Cod League, where he suddenly rebuilt his stock in a big way by slashing .344/.500/.557 with three home runs over 22 games. Suddenly, the Owen Diodati hype train might be back in motion, and because he was very young for the class last year, he's only slightly old for this one. He stands out first and foremost for huge raw power, a product of a very strong 6'2" frame and lightning quick hands that produce a ton of bat speed. Diodati can blast the ball out to any field even if he doesn't get all of it, though he hasn't always tapped it in games. He has struggled considerably with pitch recognition in the past, leading to plenty of swing and miss and more than his fair share of taken strikes as he got trigger-hesitant. On the Cape this summer, he looked more confident and decisive in the box, which could unlock a world of potential for the young Canadian. If he can carry those adjustments from the Cape over to Eugene, he could be one of the better hitters in the entire conference and rebuild all his lost draft stock.

12. LHP Drew Dowd, Stanford.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 1/3/2002. Hometown: Belmont, CA.
2022: 6-0, 4.55 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 77/34 K/BB in 75.1 innings.
Stanford started this list with Tommy Troy and led all Pac-12 schools with four names, so it's only fitting that they'll close it out too. While Ryan Bruno possesses some of the loudest stuff in the conference, Drew Dowd is a very different type of pitcher that will provide a nice contrast as the two lefties look to lead the Stanford pitching staff in 2023. He was a steady if unspectacular arm in 2022 then elevated his profile by throwing well on the Cape, where he posted a 2.60 ERA and a 23/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings. He only sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out around 92, while his curveball and changeup are both average pitches, so it's not about the stuff. Instead, Dowd is a deception and command arm that hides the ball well and puts tough angle on his pitches from an overhand slot, getting some run and sink on his fastball to boot. He'll definitely need to add a couple ticks of velocity to succeed in pro ball, but for now the rest of his game is strong enough to buy him some time and help him succeed in the Pac-12. For now though, he profiles as a #5 starter that could go somewhere in the mid to late part of day two.

The top 12 unsigned high school pitchers from the 2022 draft

Earlier this week, we took a look at the top high school hitters to reach campus and before that looked at a rather shallow group of unsigned college players. We'll close it out with incoming freshman pitchers, which bring eleven different schools for the twelve arms. Just like with the hitters, LSU is again the only school with multiple names on their list, and their five combined blows out second place Notre Dame with two combined. Pitchers can be more unpredictable than hitters, but certainly keep an eye on these names as past lists have included names like Jack Leiter, Hunter Barco, Cade Horton, Ricky Tiedemann, Tanner Witt, Thatcher Hurd, Chase Burns, Brody Brecht, and Carter Holton, all of whom went on to become impact pitchers in one way or another. This list also includes my top overall recruit at any position in terms of MLB Draft value in Andrew Dutkanych, who regularly flashed first round potential.

1. RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Vanderbilt. My 2022 draft rank: #37*.
Andrew Dutkanych removed himself from the draft before the event and therefore did not appear on my draft rankings, but he would have ranked #37 and is therefore the top high school prospect at any position to reach campus this fall, well ahead of #54 Max Martin of Rutgers. Dutkanych's stock had been very up and down throughout the draft cycle, so rather than play games with the draft, he'll look for more consistency as part of a Vanderbilt program that could use a boost in the rotation. He looked exceptional at times over the summer and heard his name as high as the middle of the first round, but also had some rougher outings that threw some doubt into the equation. While warm weather arms like Jackson Ferris, Dylan Lesko, and Brandon Barriera got off to hot starts, Dutkanych had to hang back an extra minute while the Indiana weather warmed up, and he slipped a little on boards. Then he came out firing early in the Indianapolis spring, rocketing back into the first round conversation, before his command began to falter and he slipped back down once again. So what is Vanderbilt getting? I'm personally a fan of Dutkanych, who at his best looks like by far the best incoming freshman pitcher in the country. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 97 with some ride, while his short, tight slider looks plus at its best and can miss a ton of bats. He also throws a loopier curveball that shows promise if he can tighten it up in addition to a fringy but improving changeup, giving him the chance for four average or better pitches. The 6'3" righty loves to go right after hitters and pounds the strike zone with intent, throwing all of his pitches with conviction just the way you want to see it. His control is ahead of his command, as he can miss up with his fastball and spike his breaking balls and is overall inconsistent in that department, but that's where you'd rather miss and I have confidence Tim Corbin's staff will get him straightened out. Even with Christian Little gone to LSU and Chris McElvain now in the Reds system, it's a crowded rotation picture in Nashville between Dutkanych, Carter Holton, Devin Futrell, Patrick Reilly, and the litany of talented young arms waiting to step up. Dutkanych will be draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2024, having been born right on the cutoff day just like Stanford's Malcolm Moore and Texas' Jalin Flores ironically enough, so he'll want to earn those innings sooner rather than later. I think he can, and he could challenge Holton for the Friday night spot by 2024.

2. LHP Tristan Smith, Clemson. My 2022 draft rank: #68.
Clemson thought they might land two of the best high school pitchers in the country when both Tristan Smith and Brock Porter slipped out of the top three rounds, but even with Porter signing with the Rangers for a massive bonus, Smith will bring some real firepower to a pitching staff that remains largely intact outside of ace Mack Anglin (Royals). With only Anglin gone, it may be tough to find innings in a rotation that will also add impact transfer Willie Weiss from Michigan, but the 2022 South Carolina Gatorade Player of the Year has what it takes to break through. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 96, with high spin rates that give it plenty of life. His best pitch is a plus slider, again with high spin rates, that comes in with sharp, late break to miss bats in bunches. Smith mainly works off those two pitches and will need to develop his changeup to eventually take over that Friday night role, but it's a very loud arsenal regardless. The 6'2" lefty is athletic and moves well on the mound, though he has some moving parts in his delivery and can lose his release point at times, leading to inconsistent command. It's good enough for now, but he'll want to clean that up quickly because he's extremely old for an incoming freshman and will be draft eligible again in 2024. If he can't take a step forward with either his command or his changeup, he'll project well as a starter in pro ball, but there is some long term relief risk.

3. RHP Riley Kelly, UC Irvine. My 2022 draft rank: #88.
Riley Kelly is a projection play that may not make an immediate impact at UC Irvine with only moderate turnover on the pitching staff, but given some time, I think he could become the next great Anteater ace. He was a pop-up prospect this spring and had some serious draft helium as scouts came rushing in to Orange County to see him at Tustin High School, though he was still just a little bit to raw to command a signing bonus large enough to steer him away from school. His fastball sits around 90 and tops out around 94, dipping into the upper 80's at times. Kelly's best attribute is his curveball, with huge top to bottom break that he can sharpen up for a tighter look if he wants. He commands it well and it might be the best incoming freshman breaking ball coming to campus this fall. The changeup is a distant third pitch for now, which of course he'll want to develop in order to take that Friday night role eventually. The 6'4" righty is tremendously projectable and will almost assuredly add velocity in Irvine as he fills out that big frame, especially as he smooths out a methodical delivery that loses power as he moves through it. That in turn should help his command, which is presently fringy. Kelly has a ton of work to do to reach his lofty ceiling, but UC Irvine has a strong track record of pitching development from Trenton Denholm to Andre Pallante.

4. LHP Levi Huesman, Coastal Carolina. My 2022 draft rank: #110.
Levi Huesman has some work to do before he's ready to take on Sun Belt competition, but Coastal Carolina lost its entire weekend rotation and would love for him to step up if possible. He burst onto the scene last fall at the WWBA Championship, then rode a solid but unspectacular spring to a seventeenth round selection by the Rays. Huesman sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96 at best, though he didn't always maintain that velocity last spring and often pitched closer to 90. He also throws an interesting sweeping slider that looks like a plus pitch at its best with plenty of break, but he does need to tighten it up as it gets loopy at times. Lastly, his changeup is well behind and will need to be developed. The Richmond-area native stands just six feet tall and doesn't offer a ton of projection with his skinny frame, but he is very athletic on the mound and repeats his delivery well, pounding the strike zone with average command. His shorter stature also helps him get a lower release height on the ball, giving his fastball great ride and helping the slider play off it. Coastal Carolina will want to help him get stronger so he can maintain his peak stuff over a long college season, and if he can hold his command together while doing so, he has every chance to jump into that weekend rotation.

5. RHP Chase Shores, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #111.
LSU landed three names on the position player version of this article, and Chase Shores gives them their first pitcher. Last year, LSU was more known for their bats than their arms, but they return virtually everyone from last year's staff save for starter Ma'Khail Hilliard (graduation) and relievers Eric Reyzelman (Yankees) and Paul Gervase (Mets). In addition, they're bringing in a huge class of transfer arms led by Thatcher Hurd (UCLA), Christian Little (Vanderbilt), and Paul Skenes (Air Force), and then there's the freshman class led by Shores and the next man on this list, Jaden Noot. So long story short, it will be tough to earn innings, but he could be up to the task. Standing 6'8', he's already the tallest man in the dugout, and at 250 pounds he's no string bean. Shores comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch 98, playing up with running and sinking action from a low three quarters slot. That slot and height combination gives hitters a very tough look, and immediately gives him a leg up even on SEC competition. The West Texas native has a full set of inconsistent secondaries that flash average, with the slider the most promising pitch for now with above average grades at its best. Meanwhile, his arm slot can drop when he gets tired, leading to diminished command in those cases, but he fills up the zone when he's at full strength and getting on that LSU conditioning program should help him stay there. It feels redundant to say with a 6'8" freshman that can touch 98, but there is a ton of upside here if Jay Johnson's staff can get him more consistent with his secondary stuff while holding the command together.

6. RHP Jaden Noot, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #118.
Jaden Noot will jostle with Chase Shores for innings on that crowded LSU pitching staff, and he may have a better shot to win innings right away in 2023. He's also a big man at 6'4", 235 pounds, but he's more physical and not quite as athletic at this point. Noot sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 97, adding a slider that flashes above average, a loopy curveball with good depth in the low 70's, and a decent changeup. It's a very college-ready arsenal, though he does need to sharpen some things up to get from freshman innings eater to impact Friday/Saturday guy. The fastball has the velocity, but it's fairly straight and he'll need to play it off his other pitches. Meanwhile his curveball needs to add power to complement its depth, while he can slow his arm down on changeups at times. None of that is anything crazy, and there's no reason Jay Johnson and co. shouldn't be able to get him there. The Southern California native has tremendous arm strength and looks like he's just playing catch out there, which makes up for a relative lack of athleticism. If he can maintain his body and refine his offspeed stuff a bit, he has the chance to pitch a lot of big innings in Baton Rouge.

7. LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa. My 2022 draft rank: #124.
Cade Obermueller draws a lot of parallels to Coastal Carolina's Levi Huesman. He's another undersized lefty that stands just 5'11", though he's thirty pounds lighter than Huesman and clocks in at just 155 pounds. Obviously the first thing the Iowa staff will want to do will be to stuff him full of steaks and protein, but he's already a great athlete and should put any added strength to good use. His fastball sits around 90 for now and tops out at 93, with similar flat plane to Huesman from a lower slot, albeit with some cut as well that makes it a fairly unique pitch. He brings a sweepy slider similar to Huesman as well and a decent changeup, rounding out a three pitch arsenal. Once Obermueller puts that weight on, he'll likely add a tick or two of velocity to his fastball and power to his slider, which will be necessary for him to fill Adam Mazur's shoes as a Friday night starter. Otherwise, his floor is something similar to Illinois' (now the Marlins') Cole Kirschsieper if the stuff doesn't tick up, which is still solid. The Iowa City native is a great athlete who should be able to hold his command together as his stuff ticks up, making it a very interesting profile all around. With Mazur (Padres) and swingmen Dylan Nedved (Padres) and Duncan Davitt (Rays) gone to pro ball, he'll have the opportunity to step into some innings quickly.

8. RHP Kassius Thomas, Duke. My 2022 draft rank: #130.
Duke is losing four of its top five arms by innings from 2022, plus TJ returner Henry Williams, so getting Kassius Thomas to campus will be a huge boon and he'll have an opportunity to earn big innings right away. He and Jaden Noot formed one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at Sierra Canyon High School in the Los Angeles area, and now both are heading way east for school. While Noot is a big, sturdy power arm, Thomas is more athletic and projectable as he trends in the right direction. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to 95, with a quick right arm that promises more velocity as he fills out. He works in a full arsenal of solid secondary pitches, lead by a slider that flashes plus at its best and followed by a solid curveball and potentially above average changeup. The 6'1" righty doesn't always repeat his arm slot and can get around his breaking stuff, losing bite in the process and impacting his command, but he is trending in the right direction and hopefully Duke can keep that progress rolling. There is plenty to work with here and Thomas is a heady athlete with a high baseball IQ, so if he can put the velocity, athleticism, and feel for spin together consistently, he'll be a star in Durham.

9. RHP David Lally, Notre Dame. My 2022 draft rank: #134.
Interestingly, two of my favorite lesser-known names getting to campus are both heading to Notre Dame. Incoming infielder Estevan Moreno is my sleeper pick as a hitter, while righty David Lally is a very interesting one on the mound. The Irish will have significant turnover on the mound, losing most of their go-to arms either to pro ball or the transfer portal while also bringing in a couple of useful transfers, not to mention swapping head coaches from Link Jarrett to Shawn Stiffler. All that upheaval will give Lally a chance to break through, though he is fairly raw and might not be quite ready from the get go. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96, with running life that can make it tough to square up. His breaking ball hasn't quite found its identity yet, but he does show good feel for spin and with some coaching could make some real leaps int hat area. Additionally, Flint, Michigan-area native shows a very strong changeup for a cold weather arm from an area that isn't traditionally a prospect hotbed, giving him an immediate weapon to use in South Bend. Standing 6'4", he comes with good projection and moves very well on the mound, though his mechanics are raw and will need to be smoothed out by the Notre Dame coaching staff. All together, if they get this right, Lally brings a ton of upside as a hard throwing righty that could end up with two or even three above average offspeed offerings.

10. RHP Jack O'Connor, Virginia. My 2022 draft rank: #142.
Despite losing Friday night starter Nate Savino (Diamondbacks) and swingman Brandon Neeck (Dodgers), among others, UVA projects to bring back a deep pitching staff augmented by a strong transfer class, so Jack O'Connor will have to fight for innings early on. He was inconsistent this spring, but had a little bit of late helium and may be ready. O'Connor sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96, adding in a full set of secondaries. His above average slider is the best for now, and he can turn it into a harder cutter if he needs to, while his curveball is a bit looper and his changeup is a fringy pitch at this point. The Northern Virginia native hides the ball well from a very short arm action, though his command has been inconsistent and he'll want to get that ironed out in Charlottesville in addition to getting more consistent with his secondaries. O'Connor is big and projectable at 6'5" with plenty of arm strength, giving him a ton of upside, though UVA has had mixed results with premium arms that have reached campus lately like Savino and Mike Vasil.

11. RHP Grayson Saunier, Mississippi. My 2022 draft rank: #144.
Six different pitchers started at least five games for Ole Miss in 2022, and five of them plus closer Brandon Johnson are gone to either pro ball, the transfer portal, or medical school (props to you, John Gaddis), so there will be turnover on that champion pitching staff. That gives Grayson Saunier a chance to wrestle for innings in the rotation, though I see him more as a long term projection play who may not be ready for extended innings in the SEC until 2024. He has missed significant time with injuries in high school but should be healthy now, giving him the opportunity to build up for the season. Those injuries have caused Saunier's fastball to dip into the upper 80's at times, but he's up to 96 at his best with a ton of projection in his 6'4" frame promising to bring even more. His secondaries all flash big promise, with a couple of high spin breaking balls and a fading changeup making for a very intriguing four pitch arsenal. Being hurt has meant that he hasn't gotten the opportunity to refine those offerings and get more consistent, but now that he's healthy the Ole Miss coaching staff will get to work on that with him. The Memphis-area product has a clean, athletic delivery with the aforementioned ideal frame, so once he gets a little stronger, the sky is the limit if everything breaks right.

12. RHP Eli Jerzembeck, South Carolina. My 2022 draft rank: #153.
South Carolina returns the vast majority of its pitching staff and adds a couple of big transfer arms as well, so Eli Jerzembeck will have to fight for innings.  The good news is that he's fairly advanced coming in and should be able to provide quality innings as a reliever before jumping into the rotation in 2024, when he'll be draft eligible again due to a very early birthday. Jerzembeck sits around 90 with his fastball but has been up to 96, so the arm strength is certainly there. His best pitch is a plus curveball with sharp, late bite that can get SEC hitters out right away, while his slider and changeup are less used pitches. The 6'2" righty does need to iron out his mechanics as a short strider and an upright thrower, and doing so could help him settle closer to his peak velocity than he does right now. Out of the USC bullpen, I can imagine him sitting 93-95 with that power curveball and carving up SEC lineups immediately, then working into the rotation as he gets those mechanics optimized and refines the rest of his arsenal a little more. How well he makes those adjustments will also determine his future role in pro ball.

Honorable Mentions
#158 RHP/QB Sam Horn, Missouri
#160 RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara
#163 RHP Hayden Murphy, Auburn
#167 RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Jacksonville
#185 BHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Mississippi State
#189 LHP Brennan Phillips, Oklahoma State
#197 LHP Bradley Loftin, Mississippi State
#204 LHP Zach Crotchfelt, Auburn

The top 12 unsigned high school position players from the 2022 draft

Only six college players from my 225-deep 2022 draft rankings are returning to school, but we have a lot more on the high school side heading to campus. We'll start by looking at the position players, ranked by where they fell on my 2022 board. Previous names to show up on this list include future/potential future first rounders Brooks Lee, Spencer Jones, Kevin Parada, Daniel Susac, Dylan Crews, Enrique Bradfield, and...you get the point. There are plenty of premium bats starting classes as we speak, many who could make an impact immediately at their new schools and some who may take a few years, like Jones, but the vast majority of these names will likely be major contributors if past lists are any indication. LSU is the only school to land multiple names on here and they have three, and they were also the only school with multiple names on the pitchers list as well. Throw in their incredible transfer class, and you have the most talented team in college baseball on paper.

1. SS Max Martin, Rutgers. My 2022 draft rank: #54.
Rutgers has to be thrilled to land Max Martin, a New Jersey native who is equally thrilled to represent his home state rather than follow his neighbors down south to schools like Maryland, Virginia, and UNC, which regularly poach the area for talent. Martin is the best high school prospect to reach New Brunswick in a long time, in fact one of the best high school prospects in a while to reach the Big Ten as a whole. He was a trendy name over the winter as one of the class's fastest risers and had a chance to hit his way into the first round with a strong spring, but didn't quite live up to expectations and here we are. Martin is an explosive hitter that shows big bat speed from the right side, producing high exit velocities from a line drive approach that could help him grow into average or better power despite a smaller 6', 180 pound frame. He makes a ton of hard contact and looked great at times over the summer and in the fall against high quality pitching, though he didn't beat up his South Jersey high school competition as much as hoped this spring. A plus runner that shows plenty of range at shortstop, he has enough arm strength to stick at shortstop at least throughout his time at Rutgers, if not beyond. The Philadelphia-area native is a high-IQ player that could slot into the Scarlet Knights' lineup from day one, and if he proves that last spring was only a fluke, he could become Rutgers' first first round pick since Todd Frazier in 2007. In any case, he should at least be the first Rutgers player selected in the first five rounds since Patrick Kivlehan was a fourth rounder in 2012.

2. OF Gavin Turley, Oregon State. My 2022 draft rank: #69.
If you're looking for this year's Dylan Crews, there are some parallels in Gavin Turley, though Turley is not nearly as polished as Crews was two years ago. Despite being raw all around, the fact that Oregon State's entire outfield was drafted in the top eight rounds means that Turley could jump straight into an every day role, and head coach Mitch Canham would be thrilled if that happened. What Turley lacks in polish, he makes up in raw ability. He shows off tremendous raw power from a big, explosive right handed swing that produces huge exit velocities, though his approach is raw and he doesn't quite have the barrel control you need to hit Pac-12 pitching just yet. If he does end up being thrust into the lineup right away, that could lead to some growing pains, but the ceiling is huge and I can't imagine it will take him too long to adjust. Meanwhile, he is also a plus-plus runner with a plus arm that could become a monster on the defensive side of the ball as well. Similarly to his hitting, his defense is raw and he'll need to improve his instincts to play center field, so it seems more likely he'd end up in right field to start out. Turley is every bit talented enough to swing his way into the top half of the first round after three years in Corvallis, but he does have a ways to go to reach that ceiling.

3. C Malcolm Moore, Stanford. My 2022 draft rank: #70.
Stanford got highly acclaimed prep Drew Bowser to campus two years ago and all he's done is slash .297/.355/.534 with 25 home runs in his two seasons, and now the Cardinal have an equally famous bat coming in. Malcolm Moore is the latest bat-first catcher to come out of the Central Valley, following Tyler Soderstrom and Daniel Susac, who both went on to become first round picks for the local A's. Moore has a chance to play right away, as last year's starting catcher Kody Huff went to the Rockies in the seventh round and the team's two returners behind the plate, Charlie Saum and Alberto Rios, combine for exactly two career hits. He can really swing it, showing off above average power from a very strong 6'2" frame. He's very fluid in the box for a big guy, working from a coiled load and a rotational left handed swing to put plenty of loft on the ball. Not just a slugger, Moore has a strong track record against high end pitching and is plenty advanced enough to handle Pac-12 pitching right away. There is a lot of pre-pitch movement before he gets the barrel going towards the zone, but it's nothing terribly concerning. Meanwhile, I imagine Stanford will give him the opportunity to play behind the plate, but he ultimately looks like a first baseman long term with stiff actions and a fringy arm. Still, there is plenty enough bat to play. With a July 31st birthday, the Sacramento native beats the cutoff by one day and will be draft-eligible again as a sophomore in 2024, like Susac at Arizona.

4. SS Jalin Flores, Texas. My 2022 draft rank: #82.
Texas' last shortstop, Trey Faltine, was a very highly regarded prospect when he hit campus, and they'll get to replace him with another one now that he's off to the Reds as a seventh rounder. While Faltine was primarily known for his defense and athleticism, Jalin Flores is more of a bat-first type that may not stick at shortstop. He'll have that opportunity at Texas with Faltine gone, but long term into pro ball, it's probably 50/50 whether he ends up there or at third base with more arm than range. He has a big league body to grow into, with a very projectable 6'2" frame with plenty of room to fill out. The San Antonio product has a chance to grow into above average power as he fills out, with a leveraged right handed swing that will be conducive to tapping that power in games. He also shows the ability to go to all fields with an average hit tool, so all the building blocks are there to become a middle of the order force in Austin. Born on the exact same day as Malcolm Moore, he'll also be draft-eligible again in 2024 and may not be wearing orange for long, but with a couple years of performance in the Big 12 he could hit his way into the top fifty picks, perhaps even the first round if he shows he can stick at shortstop.

5. SS Gavin Kilen, Louisville. My 2022 draft rank: #85.
The ACC's top incoming position player prospect, Gavin Kilen has a chance to be a big problem at Louisville. I see a number of parallels between his game and that of first overall pick Jackson Holliday before his breakout, and Kilen could be just a little bit of physical development away from becoming a star. He is extremely polished in the box and makes a ton of all-fields contact from the left side, looking right at home against premium pitching. The power may take some time to come, as he's skinny at 5'11" and presently lacks much impact. His stock actually took a bit of a hit this spring, when he hit too many ground balls and and soft liners for scouts' liking even if he was making very consistent contact. If he can put on a little bit of strength and just get to fringe-average power, the offensive profile suddenly becomes very, very attractive. Even at present, his IQ in the box should help him slot into the Louisville lineup right away, though Louisville does return both its star middle infielders in shortstop Christian Knapczyk and second baseman Logan Beard and Kilen may have to pay his dues in the outfield to start things out. Once he does get a shot at the infield, he could follow Knapczyk at shortstop with very fluid actions around the dirt and enough arm strength to make it work. His arm may push him to second base in the long run, but it's an attractive defensive profile regardless. He'll fit very well into a Louisville lineup filled with high-OBP types.

6. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian. My 2022 draft rank: #89*.
Anthony Silva removed his name shortly before the draft, so he technically did not rank on my final list and the #89 ranking represents where he would have landed had he taken part. A premium athlete that had many teams interested on day one of the draft, he had a poor showing at the MLB Draft Combine in June and saw his stock tumble a bit, so he'll head to TCU to put that event behind him. At his best, Silva shows off a very intriguing bat from the right side, with plenty of loft and bat speed for now and a very projectable 6'2" frame promising more power as he fills out. He also makes plenty of contact for now, but does need to find more consistency with the Horned Frogs to fully tap his offensive potential. The San Antonio native is more advanced as a shortstop right now, with turning in some plus-plus run times that give him great range in addition to a plus arm. At his best, he looks like a premium defender there whose glove can buy his bat plenty of time. The Combine performance told many evaluators that Silva may not be the premium athlete they thought he was, and many of his tools lost a half grade or more, so the first order of business in Fort Worth will be to get back to his peak physically. If he can do that while adding strength and impact at the plate, he has the makings of a very early draft pick. He'll want to do so quickly, because he'll be draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2024.

7. SS Cameron Smith, Florida State. My 2022 draft rank: #90.
Cam Smith had some helium this spring when he got off to a hot start, though a strong commitment to Florida State combined with concerns over his age got him to Tallahassee. He's the age of a college sophomore as he steps on campus for the first time and will be draft-eligible again in 2024, so the FSU coaching staff will expect him to adjust fairly quickly. Smith has a very clean swing from the right side and made a ton of contact against strong competition in South Florida this spring, with an advanced approach and strong feel for the barrel. He packs solid power into his strong 6'3" frame, with the chance to get to above average as he gets stronger and more explosive. Jordan Carrion is retuning to Tallahassee this spring after serving as the starting shortstop a year ago, so I don't expect Smith to slot in at the premium position right away, but he will have a chance to take over if Carrion goes pro after next season. Smith is smooth and sure-handed on the infield, but he may not have the range to play shortstop long term and probably fits better at third base. Florida State was really starved for offense last year, so they'll welcome any spark with open arms and Smith has a very good chance to provide that right away.

8. OF Paxton Kling, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #93*
Like Anthony Silva, Paxton Kling removed his name from the draft and wasn't on my final rankings, but would have ranked #93 if he took part. LSU has put together a loaded roster for 2023, including returning Dylan Crews, Gavin Dugas, Brayden Jobert, Josh Pearson, and Josh Stevenson all in the outfield, so it will be very difficult for Kling to find playing time in the short run. Given that he already turned 19 back in May and will be draft eligible again as a sophomore, he will want to find those at bats quickly to build his stock for 2024. The good news is that he is every bit talented enough to break through that crowded outfield picture and do so. He takes huge hacks from the right side that generate above average power, and he could grow into plus power as he fills out his 6'2" frame. Kling also shows good pitch recognition skills and solid barrel adjustability for a power hitter, giving him a shot at an above average hit tool in a best case scenario. It's important to note that he spent his high school career facing much younger competition, though, and once that script flips in college, SEC arms could find holes in a swing that tends to get long when he's looking for power. How the central Pennsylvania native adjusts to that new dynamic will determine how quickly he can force his way into Jay Johnson's lineup, but he has every opportunity to become an impact hitter for the Tigers if he does adjust well. His defense will help, as he is an above average runner with a strong arm that can fit very well at any outfield position and provide value. LSU will feature a ferocious lineup this year, and the fact that a bat like Kling's may not get regular playing time is just further proof of that.

9. C Brady Neal, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #97.
Speaking of LSU's loaded lineup, Paxton Kling isn't the only big name hitter reaching campus. Fortunately for Brady Neal, his path to playing time won't be quite as crowded as last year's starting catcher, Tyler McManus, graduated, leaving last year's primary backup, Hayden Travinski, and incoming freshman Jared Jones as Neal's main competition. Additionally, Neal will have a little less pressure on him to get at bats right away, as he's nearly a year and a half younger than Kling after reclassifying into the class of 2022 and is still just 17 years old. Despite his youth, he is extremely advanced and should adjust to SEC pitching well, taking very professional at bats with sound pitch recognition skills. We're still working on the pure bat to ball skills, but that should come in time as he continues to select good pitches to hit. Despite standing just 5'10", he's also starting to show more power in games and could get to average in that regard from a clean, leveraged left handed swing. Meanwhile, the Tampa-area product caught plenty of high-octane arms during his time at IMG Academy, so when Christian Little and Paul Skenes come out pumping upper 90's, he'll be ready. He stands out for his athleticism behind the plate more than his pure glovework, but again, he's very young and that should catch up in time. A strong arm rounds out what is a very, very well rounded profile, and even if Travinski or Jones wins the starting job in 2023, Neal should eventually claim it as his own and will be draft eligible again well before his 21st birthday in 2025.

10. 3B Estevan Moreno, Notre Dame. My 2022 draft rank: #98.
Estevan Moreno is a personal favorite of mine, and as far as I know you won't find him in the top one hundred on any other draft lists. While he's not the most famous name set to reach campus this spring, I think he could change that very quickly in South Bend. Moreno is coming off a strong spring where he pushed himself up draft boards, showing off a strong combination of power and polish. He generates a ton of torque in his strong right handed swing, with big pull side power that he can tap in games. Meanwhile, he employs an effective all-fields approach and is more than willing to go to right field, but he does tap his power better to the pull side. At Notre Dame, he'll have an opportunity to refine that approach and better spread his power out to all fields, and if he does so without sacrificing contact he could surprise some people as one of the better hitters in the ACC. The Chicago-area product is an unremarkable defender at third base, but may get the opportunity to play there after 2022 starter Jack Brannigan was the only position player drafted off the team. Even if he has to move to left field, I'm a believer in Moreno's bat and I think he could be a very interesting sleeper in the ACC.

11. SS Gavin Guidry, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #109.
LSU isn't done yet after outfielder Paxton Kling and catcher Brady Neal, because 2022 Louisiana Gatorade Player of the Year Gavin Guidry will stay home and join the Pennsylvanian and Floridian in Baton Rouge. And with third baseman Jacob Berry gone to the Marlins, second baseman Cade Doughty now with the Blue Jays, and incoming transfer and shortstop Carter Young unexpectedly signing with the Orioles in the seventeenth round, Guidry has a chance to jump right in and play right from the get go. His positional versatility helps as well, as perhaps his best asset is his athleticism that allows him to profile virtually anywhere. He's an above average runner that moves very well on the defensive side of the ball, showing the hands and arm strength to stick at shortstop or the speed to play center field. Jordan Thompson probably won't give up the shortstop position so easily, but he could easily replace Berry at third base or Doughty at second base and be a defensive upgrade over either of them. At the plate, Guidry again shows a balanced skill set with a patient approach at the plate and strong hand eye coordination to execute when he does get his pitch. He's still growing into his 6'2" frame but could eventually tap above average power if things break right, making for a profile with few holes. The Lake Charles native is already 19 and will be eligible again in 2024, so he has two years to make his impact in Baton Rouge unless he spurns the draft again.

12. C Ike Irish, Auburn. My 2022 draft rank: #123.
Auburn won't be hurting for catching depth next year, bringing back starter Nate LaRue and backup/utility man Ryan Dyal in addition to landing JuCo transfer Carter Wright from Iowa Western. That will make Ike Irish's quest for immediate playing time somewhat difficult, but nobody from that group is a particularly imposing hitter and I don't think head coach Butch Thompson would mind getting a little more production out of that spot in the lineup. Irish is a bit raw, which may make a gradual transfer of power more likely than jumping into the every day role right away, but there is big time upside here. He stands out for above average raw power from the left side, with a big swing that gets long and uphill through the zone. He loves to get his arms extended and drive the ball in the air, which will be very conducive to big home run totals at Auburn. The hit tool is more raw here, as he struggles to recognize quality breaking balls and showed more swing and miss this past spring than expected, so transitioning to SEC pitching may take a little time. The Auburn coaching staff will hope to help him make the necessary adjustments there sooner rather than later, but all that depth they have behind the plate takes some pressure off. The Michigan native stands out for his plus-plus ram behind the plate that will really limit the running game, with solid athleticism that will keep him behind the plate. He's more strong than quick twitch and will need to refine his glovework a little bit, but that's nothing out of the ordinary for an incoming freshman catcher.

Honorable Mentions
#126 OF Jayson Jones, Arkansas
#128 OF Jeric Curtis, Texas Tech
#132 OF Peyton Brennan, UCLA
#133 OF Mason Neville, Arkansas
#135 OF Max Belyeu, Texas
#148 1B Jayden Hylton, Stetson
#149 SS Drew Faurot, Central Florida
#155 C Beau Sylvester, Oklahoma State
#156 C Adonys Guzman, Boston College
#159* SS RJ Austin, Vanderbilt

The top 7 unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2023

The draft is behind us, the signing deadline is behind us, and most importantly from my perspective, all thirty team by team draft reviews are behind me, so it's time to take a look at the guys who didn't sign. Those kids are back on campus now enjoying Week 1 of college football and taking part in fall practice to get ready for the 2023 season. Well, maybe not Jace Grady or Isaiah Thomas since Dallas Baptist and Lewis-Clark State don't have a football team. Usually I let this list go ten deep, but my personal draft list of 225 players, only six college players are returning to school. So here are those six, plus Colby Halter frankly because he's a famous name to help flesh this list out a little and one more bonus name at the bottom:

1. RHP Andrew Walters, Miami. My 2022 draft rank: #127.
Miami already returns a young roster for 2023 but is getting a huge boost with Andrew Walters unexpectedly coming back for his senior season. He was drafted in the eighteenth round by the Orioles and had a chance to sign when it became apparent that third rounder Nolan McLean would not, but that money went to seventeenth rounder Carter Young instead and Walters is happy to return to Coral Gables. After beginning his career at Eastern Florida State JC near his hometown of Palm Bay, he transferred to Miami as a sophomore in 2021 and excelled, earning a larger role in 2022 and posting a 1.65 ERA and a 62/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings this spring out of the bullpen. He carved up ACC hitters with just one pitch for the most part, a riding mid 90's fastball that tops out around 99 that hitters just could not pick up. He hides it extremely well and executes his locations, so hitters could sit on it and still come up empty. Walters adds a slider but it's a below average pitch, lacking bite and offering more a change of pace than anything else. If the Hurricanes want to, they can move the 6'4" righty into the rotation given his above average command, strong frame, and repeatable delivery, especially now with Carson Palmquist and Alex McFarlane gone to the Rockies and Phillies, respectively. A move to the rotation would really test his ability to execute that fastball over long periods of time, but the hope is that he can sharpen that slider into at least an average pitch to more effectively handle extended innings. To start in pro ball, he'll also need a changeup, but it would be perfectly reasonable for Miami to just send Walters back out in the bullpen as one of the best relievers in the ACC.

2. RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida. My 2022 draft rank: #131.
Brandon Sproat going unsigned was a surprise, as the Mets drafted him in the third round but couldn't come to terms, making him the second highest drafted player to go unsigned after Oklahoma State's Nolan McLean. The Florida pitching staff usually gets raided during the draft, and as always they were prepared to replenish with a deep pool of underclassmen and a premium transfer in Hurston Waldrep from Southern Miss. Getting Sproat back on top of that is huge, and it gives the Gators one of the SEC's best staffs overall. He has always flashed huge arm strength from the right side but was held back by command, then took a big step forward in that regard as he moved into the rotation this spring to the tune of a 3.41 ERA and an 82/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. He sits in the mid 90's as a starter but can touch triple digits in relief, though the fastball can play a bit true and he didn't miss as many bats in 2022 as you'd like for someone that throws that hard. The Pensacola-area native has two quality secondary pitches in a solid slider that flashes above average as well as a changeup that looks plus at its best, and more effectively mixing those pitches in could help him miss more bats as well. His command has improved to fringe-average and he gets down the mound very well, lending hope that he can stick as a starter long term when that may not have been the projection heading into the season. To do so, he'll have to hold that command together and probably get a little more consistent with his breaking ball, and it would also be nice if he could find a way to put more life on his fastball. With a September birthday, the 6'3" righty is on the older side and will be nearly 23 when the 2023 draft rolls around.

3. RHP Colby Holcombe, Mississippi State (via Northeast Mississippi JC). My 2022 draft rank: #169.
For the second year in a row, Mississippi State will get one of the country's most talented JuCo arms to campus, but they'll hope for better results than Andrew Walling after he pitched just three innings this spring. Colby Holcombe spent his freshman year at Northeast Mississippi JC in Booneville, where he was downright dominant at times and posted a 2.60 ERA and a 115/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings. He had some duds, including three starts where he allowed at least five runs, but also had three different starts in which he went at least seven innings, allowed no runs, no more than two hits, no more than two walks, and struck out at least a dozen. Holcombe has overpowering stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching as high as 99. At this point, he doesn't always hold that velocity deep into his starts, but the arm strength is there. He spins two vertical breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, with the former coming in harder and the latter showing deeper bite. The Florence, Alabama native also works in a changeup, but he doesn't need it much and it's behind his other pitches. Holcombe is very young, only set to turn 20 in December, and will stay in Starkville for two years before he's draft eligible again. That gives him plenty of time to build up his stamina in a starting role and refine his fringy command, especially given his huge 6'7" frame that can make it difficult to keep his long levers in sync. His fastball also plays a bit true, which wasn't an issue when he was blowing it by hitters at Copiah-Lincoln Community College but could come into play in the SEC. Still, if he can sit consistently in the mid 90's, it remains a very good fastball.

4. OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist. My 2022 draft rank: #179.
It was a surprise to see Jace Grady go undrafted, but I guess he has unfinished business in Dallas. Grady broke out as a sophomore for the Patriots a year ago then continued to rake in the Cape Cod League, leading to talk he could go in the top two rounds this spring. While he still finished with strong numbers in 2022, slashing .310/.419/.509 with ten home runs and a 60/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, he wasn't quite as consistent as many hoped and looked more like a day two candidate than a day one pick. For that reason, he'll head back to Dallas Baptist and try again. Grady has a strong all-around game that fits very well in college, showing an all fields approach with some power to the pull side that played up with wood bats on the Cape. He made a lot of early count contact last spring, where he only walked or struck out in 26.8% of his plate appearances, but he often worked deeper this spring as that rate jumped to 36.1%. Similarly, many of his doubles and triples a year ago turned into home runs this spring, but that came with an increased strikeout rate from 15.8% to 21.7%, which is a bit too high for his profile. He'll look to get that back down in 2023 and play within himself. The Central Texas native stands just 5'9" and does possess some power, but he's at his best when he lets it come naturally instead of actively trying to tap it. He's also an above average runner that runs the bases well and could stick in center field once he does head to pro ball, though his below average arm would push him to left if he can't. At Dallas Baptist in 2023, he'll look to cut that strikeout rate back down and prove he can stick in center, where he would be much more likely to find an every day MLB role than in left.

5. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State. My 2022 draft rank: #190.
Nolan McLean was the highest drafted player to go unsigned this year, going to the Orioles at #81 overall to open the third round. Baltimore wound up signing seventeenth round pick Carter Young to a massive $1.33 million bonus, while McLean will head back to Oklahoma State. McLean came to Stillwater with a chance to earn some reps under Mike Gundy at quarterback, but never played a snap and is focusing on baseball, specifically playing both ways. Originally thought of as a better pitching prospect at Garner High School in the Raleigh area, his bat came on late but he went undrafted in 2020, then at Oklahoma State he was almost exclusively a hitter as a freshman in 2021. He got more reps playing both ways in 2022, and it's still not clear where his future lies, though the Orioles did draft him as a pitcher. McLean does have more experience as a hitter and slashed .285/.397/.595 with 19 home runs and a 107/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games this spring. The power is the real calling card, as he possesses plus-plus raw juice (evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field bomb) from a strong 6'3" frame and an extremely leveraged right handed swing. When he gets his arms extended and gets the barrel to the ball, he can absolutely mash a baseball like very few other amateur hitters in the country. Meanwhile, his 107 strikeouts set an all time Division I record, so swing and miss is a big part of his profile. He's moderately disciplined in the box but there is very little adjustability in his grooved swing, making him very much a mistake hitter and causing him to struggle when he doesn't pick the pitch up immediately out of the hand. Upon returning to school next year, cutting that strikeout rate from 36.9% down to something around 25% or better will be a priority. On the mound, he put up a 4.97 ERA this spring with a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, all out of the Cowboys bullpen. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets into the upper 90's, and he also shows feel to spin a breaking ball with both a curve and a slider that are trending up. His command remains below average and he's likely a reliever, but going back to school will allow for more clarity on his profile with just 27.1 career innings under his belt. With Victor Mederos (Angels), Bryce Osmond (Angels), Trevor Martin (Rays), and Kale Davis (transferred to Oklahoma) all gone from the Oklahoma State pitching staff, McLean will get a great opportunity to step into a bigger role in 2023.

6. RHP Ty Floyd, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #198.
LSU was already in a great spot after landing massive transfers like Tommy White, Christian Little, and Paul Skenes, among others, in addition to bringing in a hugely talented freshman class. Getting back Ty Floyd, one of the most talented young arms on their pitching staff, is icing on the cake. Floyd was one of the most talented young arms on the LSU staff in 2022 and probably wasn't quite pro ready, so returning to Baton Rouge is probably the best move for his career. This past year, he had a 3.77 ERA and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, mostly as a starter. Out of high school, he showed tremendous athleticism and projection that just needed refinement, and two years later, he's made modest improvement but remains raw. Floyd's fastball can touch 95 early but settles more in the low 90's as the game progresses, adding a slurvy breaking ball and a seldom used changeup. The fastball plays above its velocity because it comes in with a flat approach angle from short arm action, especially when he gets it up in the zone. It was good to see him hold up in a starting role this spring, though going back to LSU will give him the opportunity to tighten up that breaking ball a bit and help it find its identity, in addition to refining his nascent changeup. If he can do those two things while holding down decent command, pro teams will be very interested to get the live armed 6'2" righty into their system. There is a lot of untapped potential to be found here, but he hasn't quite put it together yet.

7. 2B Colby Halter, Florida. My 2022 draft rank: unranked.
Colby Halter was one of the bigger prep names to reach campus out of the class of 2020, then made an immediate impact as a freshman by slashing .302/.379/.453 in 49 games. With high expectations for 2022, he took a step back and finished at just .240/.338/.380 with eight home runs and a 66/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games as a draft eligible sophomore. Halter did find his stroke a bit in the elite Cape Cod League this summer, slashing .288/.391/.471 with seven home runs in 43 games (.304/.418/.511 before the draft), but still went unpicked as he looks to rebuild his stock. He has a very long track record of hitting dating back to his prep days, with the 2022 college season being the only time in his amateur career where he has looked anything but stout at the plate. The Jacksonville native makes good all fields contact when he stays within himself, though he got power conscious this spring and struck out at a 22.4% clip. His strong Cape run really helped reestablish his power potential, and because of that he has a shot for fringe-average power in pro ball. If he can get back to keeping it simple at the plate and get his strikeout rate safely below 20% next spring, he could be drafted somewhere on day two. It's a moderately attractive defensive profile as well, as he handled second base and third base capably for Florida and brings some versatility once he gets to pro ball.

Bonus: OF Isaiah Thomas, Lewis-Clarke State. My 2022 draft rank: unranked.
Isaiah Thomas is coming back. He ranked #109 on my 2021 list after slashing .305/.361/.583 with 13 home runs and a 63/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games at Vanderbilt, but went undrafted and came out at #5 on this same list a year ago. Instead of returning to Vanderbilt, he stepped away from the game for mental health reasons and didn't appear in a game in 2022. Now, it appears he's ready to go again, originally transferring across the country to Oregon before switching late to Idaho NAIA powerhouse Lewis-Clark State. Given that he'll turn 23 a few months before the next draft and hasn't swung a bat since 2021, it's hard to know what to make of the South Florida native, but expectations are high for 2023. He possesses plus raw power from a strong, lean, explosive 6'3" frame, and he tapped it consistently in games against an SEC schedule. He did so despite an extremely aggressive approach that led to a 25.8% strikeout rate and just a 3.7% walk rate, but his barrel is so accurate that it didn't hinder him at all. After swinging at nearly everything in 2021, he'll look to shore up that approach at Lewis-Clark State and force pitchers to come to him, if only to show teams that he can stay disciplined once he hits pro ball. Still, there aren't many hitters in college baseball that can scorch the ball like Thomas. Last time we saw him on the field, he was an above average runner with an above average arm, making for a very strong profile in right field, and it remains to be seen where the Warriors deploy him in 2023.