2018 Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

First 5 rounds: Jonathan India (1-5), Lyon Richardson (2-47), Josiah Gray (CBB-72), Bren Spillane (3-82), Mike Siani (4-109), Ryan Campbell (5-139)
Also notable: Jay Schuyler (7-199), Andrew McDonald (9-259), Michael Byrne (14-409)

The Reds made some picks I liked and some I didn't, but overall they grabbed some good talent here. There's a lot of upside in this class, and they did a good job of getting a little bit of everything, taking one player from each of the four major demographic groups (high school hitter/pitcher, college hitter/pitcher) in their first five picks. Even though I don't like some of the picks, I like the overall class here and Reds fans should be happy with the haul.

1-5: 3B Jonathan India (my rank: 12)
I had India ranked outside the top ten, but considering how much they saved in signing him, it's hard to fault the Reds for going under slot to sign the most productive hitter in college baseball. In 68 games, many of which were against college baseball's toughest competition in the SEC, the Florida Gator third baseman slashed .350/.497/.717 with 21 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 56/60 strikeout to walk ratio. College pitching, even its best, clearly has nothing on him, and he even homered off of #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Right now, despite the huge power surge and relatively high 18.7% strikeout rate during his junior season, his hit tool to me looks to be ahead of his power, and I see him as likely to post high on-base percentages (he also walked in 20% of his plate appearances). He generates his power through a quick, short swing, though it didn't show up until this season (slugged .440 and .429 in first two seasons) and it didn't show up with wood bats in the Cape Cod League (.281/.397/.398, 1 HR over two years). I'm not sure if he made whatever change that gave him more power before or after the Cape, but I'm not entirely sure all that power translates to wood bats. My guess is that India ends up hitting 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages around .370, which is All Star level. He signed for just under $5.3 million, coming in just about $650,000 under slot. In his first game in the rookie level Appalachian League, he went 0-2 but walked twice.

2-47: RHP Lyon Richardson (my rank: 89)
I'm not as big a fan of this pick. Richardson is a 6'2" high school right hander from Port St. Lucie, Florida with a live arm that can dial his fastball up to 97. The arm strength is what the Reds are buying here, as it's something you often can't teach, while the rest of his game is something you can teach. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much going for the rest of his game. I couldn't find much video before the draft, but his slider is a work in progress and his changeup is just getting started, so the Reds are gambling a lot on those secondaries. His control is average, and at 6'2", he lacks some of the projection of some of his counterparts. Still, you can't teach arm strength as much as other skills, and Richardson has it. He signed for nearly $2 million, nearly $500,000 over slot, and has allowed six runs in four innings with a 5/4 strikeout to walk ratio in the Appalachian League.

CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (my rank: 106)
Because they saved money on Gray, I don't mind this pick. He's a 6'1" righty out of DII Le Moyne College in Syracuse, but he didn't actually begin pitching until last year, his sophomore year. He was originally recruited as a light hitting shortstop, but Le Moyne liked his arm strength and struck gold. In 13 starts this year, he went 11-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio, completely overwhelming low level DII competition. He throws low to mid 90's and can easily blow it by DII hitters, and his slider is steadily improving. His command is coming together, but it's still a work in progress, and his changeup is virtually non-existent like Richardson's. He's very raw, especially for a college pitcher, but he is one of the youngest college juniors in the class and doesn't turn 21 until December, which buys him some time. He signed for $772,500, which is $65,200 below slot, and he has allowed three runs in 11 innings (2.45 ERA) on five hits, two walks, and 11 strikeouts so far in the Appalachian League.

3-82: OF Bren Spillane (unranked)
I was very aware of Spillane before the draft, but chose not to include him in the rankings because I'm not his biggest fan. Like India, he put up exceptional numbers this year, but I just don't think his game translates well to pro ball. Through 50 games for Illinois, he slashed .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio against pretty good Big 10 competition. Clearly, college pitching has nothing on him, though he didn't get the chance to face much of college baseball's best (Indiana's Jonathan Stiever, #94 on my list, was probably the best arm he faced, going 1-5 with a double and a pair of walks in two games). The reason I don't think his power will play up is that a) his swing is long, and b) he doesn't have much bat speed. He'll have a tough time catching up to the high heat he'll see in the upper levels of the minors. I also see his power coming more from strength than from bat speed, and it will be tougher to muscle balls out with wood bats than with metal unless he can barrel up fastballs consistently and use their velocity. Despite being 6'5" and big, he actually can run a little, meaning he won't be a liability in a corner outfield spot. He signed for $597,500, which is $118,500 below slot, and he is slashing .261/.397/.500 with a pair of home runs and a 25/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 16 games in the rookie level Pioneer League.

4-109: OF Mike Siani (my rank: 34)
Obviously, this is a great pick for the Reds. He's universally regarded as at least a second or third round talent, but fell to the fourth round due to signability, and the Reds were able to grab him for a large over slot bonus. Personally, I'm higher than most on him, as you can tell by the ranking. He's a high school outfielder from Philadelphia, one who obviously doesn't get the opportunity to practice year round like his southern counterparts. He's mostly projection at this point, though at 6'1" and sturdily built, it's more skill projection than physical projection. Siani's main value is on defense, as he can stick in center field with well above average arm strength and range. He's more of a project on offense, where he is just an average hitter, but I think he can improve. He gets the bat on the ball enough, and he has done a good job in adding loft to his swing, so I think once he puts it together and can start barreling the ball up and turning on pitches, he could be a 15-20 homer bat with a high enough on-base percentage to give him the chance to steal 20 bases per season. That doesn't sound extremely exciting as a ceiling, but when you combine that with great defense, it's a very valuable player any team would like to have. He signed for $2 million, which was nearly $1.5 million above slot, and he has two singles in seven at bats with one strikeout in his first two games in the Appalachian League.

9-259: RHP Andrew McDonald (unranked)
McDonald was a fifth year senior at Virginia Tech, one who I got to watch plenty over the years. He's a 6'6" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a pretty good breaking ball, though inconsistency in both his velocity and his command have kept him from posting good numbers at Tech. This past year was his best as a Hokie, as he went 1-8 with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54.2 innings. If pro coaching can help him get his delivery under control, as he often struggled to repeat it in Blacksburg, he could even start at the major league level, but he will take a lot of work and turns 24 over the offseason. Essentially, if he responds to mechanical changes quickly, he's a good pick, but if he takes time to get everything together, there isn't a lot of time on his prospect clock. Interestingly, the Reds also spent their 9th round pick on a Virginia Tech pitcher last year with lefty Packy Naughton, though he was the 257th pick while McDonald was 259th. McDonald signed for $7,500, which is $155,100 below slot. Through six appearances in the Pioneer League, he has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 7.1 innings (7.36 ERA) on eight hits, eight walks, and nine strikeouts.

Others: 5th rounder Ryan Campbell was a senior out of the University of Illinois-Chicago, finishing the year 7-3 with a 1.53 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. The 6'3" righty got his outs by commanding his pitches and inducing weak contact, and he'll need to continue to have sharp command to make it as a starter in the minor league system. 7th rounder Jay Schuyler was the University of San Diego's catcher, slashing .342/.414/.493 with seven home runs and a 30/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 55 games. I haven't heard anything about his defense but he has an advanced approach at the plate and puts the ball in play regularly, striking out in just 12% of his plate appearances while posting an OPS over .900. 14th rounder Michael Byrne is a great day three find, and while he required the Reds to spend $132,500 against their bonus pool, he could really help them soon. Byrne was the relief ace for Florida, posting a 1.61 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 64/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, often going more than one inning in relief. He was also excellent on the Cape (0.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13/4 K/BB), and he's a guy who should move quickly through the minors. Byrne is a 6'2" righty who throws his fastball around 90, which is very slow for a supposedly elite reliever, but he gets away with it due to its movement, deception, and his command of it. When it's moving and he places it right where he wants to around the zone, it's tough to square up, but his command will have to remain tight if he wants to make it to the majors.

2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 First Basemen

Major league first baseman were often drafted at different positions, such as the outfield, third base, or even catcher, so the top first baseman from this draft could end up being a guy like Alec Bohm (3B), Nolan Gorman (3B), or Trevor Larnach (OF). For these guys at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, there is a lot of pressure on the bat, and they will have to hit to stay relevant. Fortunately, there is a ton of power to go around in this class, and they all also have patient approaches in common to pad their on-base percentages.

1. Triston Casas (American Heritage HS, FL)
American Heritage High School in South Florida has produced tons of talent, most notably Eric Hosmer, and seems to have a top five round pick every year. This year, Triston Casas leads the way as the arguably the top high school prospect in all of South Florida, showing some of the best power in the entire draft class. He generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball as far as anybody in this class, and he combines that power with extreme patience at the plate which could lead to on-base percentages creeping towards .400 in the majors. However, contact could hold him back, as he has a very long swing which could struggle to catch up to quality fastballs, though it hasn't yet. He's a high risk, high reward hitter with a lot to prove and a lot to potentially accomplish. He's committed to the University of Miami and will likely go in the first round.

2. Seth Beer (Clemson)
One of the most interesting bats in all of college baseball, Beer put up a sensational freshman season at Clemson in 2016 by slashing .369/.535/.700 with 18 home runs in 62 games, walking more than twice as often as he struck out and winning the Dick Howser Trophy as the best player in college baseball. However, teams found holes in his swing during his sophomore year and his slash line dropped to .298/.478/.606 with 16 home runs in 63 games, still excellent but not quite what he did as a freshman. It's back up to .308/.464/.656 with 22 home runs in 62 games this year, but the shine from his freshman season has worn off a bit. As a bottom of the scale defender and runner who really would fit better at DH than at first base, his bat needs to carry him, and it carries too many questions for him to find himself in the first round. He has not hit particularly well with wood bats, and there is some fear that quality pitching can find the holes in his swing, which isn't the cleanest, with regularity. Still, there is enough upside in the bat that he likely will not fall out of the top fifty picks.

3. Luken Baker (Texas Christian)
Baker, like Beer, set the world on fire with an excellent freshman season in 2016, slashing .379/.483/.577 with 11 home runs and more walks than strikeouts, also putting up a 1.70 ERA on the mound. Also like Beer, he has regressed a little bit, slashing .317/.454/.528 with eight home runs as a sophomore and .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs this year as a junior. He's a huge human being, standing 6'4" and 265 pounds, which limits him to first base defensively, but his proven power/patience combination in the NCAA is very attractive to major league teams. His right handed swing is cleaner than Beer's left handed swing, though he does have a bit of a head jerk, and he actually strikes me as more advanced than Beer as well. However, given his profile, I would like to see more home runs than the 28 he has hit in 145 career games. He has endured bad injuries to end both his sophomore and junior seasons, breaking his arm last year and his leg this year, both on the base paths. He has a chance to anchor a big league lineup, but there's also the possibility he plateau's in AA.

4. Grant Lavigne (Bedford HS, NH)
New Hampshire doesn't produce much talent at all, with the only notable major leaguer I can think of being Sam Fuld, but Lavigne is the real deal. Like Baker, he is also a huge person, standing 6'4" and 230 pounds, but he is more athletic than all of the guys above him on this list. His swing is also probably the best geared for future success, showing natural loft and few holes, but he gets knocked down this far on the list due to not having proven himself to the point that Casas, Beer, and Baker have. He's risker just by nature of not having as many reps against quality pitching, but he could turn out to be just as good or better than the other guys.

5. Bren Spillane (Illinois)
Spillane put up video game numbers at Illinois this year by slashing .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs in 50 games, using his massive strength and feel for the barrel to muscle balls out of the park with regularity. However, he has an uphill climb to the majors, as his bat speed is average and his swing is long, and pro pitching will likely find holes in it. Being a right handed hitter narrows his margin for error as well. He'll need to tighten it up to find success at the next level, which he can do with his strength.

Others: Evan Edwards (NC State)