The Rays always draft well, and this year was no different. After pulling off a surprise with the powerful Xavier Isaac at the back of the first round, they transitioned to a mostly college-oriented draft that only included two more high schoolers the rest of the way, one of which (seventeenth rounder Levi Huesman) may not even sign. They diversified for sure, mixing Isaac's and Dominic Keegan's immense raw power and well below average speed with Chandler Simpson's top of the scale speed and bottom of the scale power. Meanwhile, Brock Jones and Ryan Cermak offer a nice mix of both. My personal favorite pick in this class is sixth rounder Gary Gill Hill, who fits way too perfectly in this development system and could come out an absolute monster.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-29: 1B Xavier Isaac, East Forsyth HS [NC]. My rank: #166.
Slot value: $2.55 million. Signing bonus: likely below slot value.
Kumar Rocker and the Rangers made headlines for the most surprising pick in the first round, but those who follow the draft closely may have been equally or more surprised by the Rays and Xavier Isaac. He ranked #92 on Baseball America, #113 on MLB Pipeline, #166 on my board, and #172 on Prospects Live, and I saw other boards that had him outside the top 200. I'm not pointing this out to call it a bad pick, rather to show that nobody saw it coming. Isaac has very little track record against high quality pitching, so this is a massive gamble, but the Rays clearly believe the bat is for real and that playing on the summer showcase circuit would have only proven what they already knew. Nobody doubts the raw power, which is among the best in the entire high school class up there with names like Elijah Green and Jayson Jones. The Winston-Salem-area native packs an incredible amount of brute strength into his 6'4", 240 pound frame, channeling it into a powerful left handed swing that might put the Tropicana roof in danger. If you want an example, just look at this opposite field laser that other teenage hitters simply cannot replicate. He hit very well against North Carolina high school pitching this year, but like I mentioned earlier, the hit tool is very unproven and he could move slowly through the system. That's viewed as a negative in scouting circles, but technically, it's just a lack of a positive instead and there's a key difference. The Rays obviously are fully bought in, and they see a kid who could hit 35+ home runs a year, perhaps the next David Ortiz at the high end. He'll have to hit, because he's a well below average athlete that will be limited to first base defensively, if not DH. Isaac is committed to Florida, but I can't imagine that will be a factor this high in the draft as the Rays look to lure him a little bit farther down I-75.
2-65: OF Brock Jones, Stanford. My rank: #38.
Slot value: $1.08 million. Signing bonus: $1.08 million.
Brock Jones' stock has been on a little bit of a roller coaster over the past couple seasons, but it's definitely on the upward trend right now and Tampa Bay could be picking up a true impact player here. Originally recruited for both football and baseball, Jones logged some time as a safety at Stanford Stadium before giving up football to focus on baseball as a sophomore. That paid off as he hit .311/.453/.646 with 18 home runs that year, and he entered the 2022 season a potential top ten pick. However, he didn't get much to hit early in the season and struggled to adjust, slashing an unremarkable .247/.417/.416 with a 28.7% strikeout rate through his first 25 games. However, he turned things around in a big way starting in mid April and slashed .366/.470/.799 with 16 home runs and a 22.3% strikeout rate over 40 games the rest of the way. So enough history, who is Brock Jones? He's a chiseled athlete with a compact, strong-as-heck six foot frame that did not look out of place on the football field. He has a simple but powerful left handed swing that enables him to hit the ball out to all fields, and has not one but two three homer games in NCAA Tournament play to his name. The Fresno native is a patient hitter that works a lot of deep counts, leading to a ton of walks (17.4% rate in 2022) but there's a healthy amount of swing and miss in his game as well. He may always be a streaky hitter because of that, but when he's hot, it's a complete offensive profile. You can see the safety in him in the outfield, where his plus speed helps him track down fly balls, but safeties don't throw the football much and his arm is fringy. Because of that, a better defender may push him to left field, where he'll likely hit enough to play every day. The ceiling is an impact bat that could knock 25-30 or more home runs per year with high, walk-driven on-base percentages, while the floor would be a streaky, power hitting platoon bat.
CBB-70: SS Chandler Simpson, Georgia Tech. My rank: #86.
Slot value: $953,300. Signing bonus: $750,000 ($203,300 below slot value).
Hey, does anybody else remember the late 2000's "Running Rays" with Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Jason Bartlett? No? My brain may have invented the term. Anyways, Chandler Simpson is a fascinating prospect who could bring back the moniker, and funnily enough, he literally could not be more different than first rounder Xavier Isaac. Simpson is coming off a fantastic season at Georgia Tech in which he slashed .433/.506/.517 with nearly double as many walks (31) as strikeouts (16) over 47 games, then followed that up by hitting a near-identical .455/.510/.523 with five walks to just two strikeouts in twelve games in the Cape Cod League leading up to the draft. He stands out the most for his blazing speed as a true top of the scale runner that can change games from the batter's box, on the bases, or in the field. He gets to use it often, too, as he possesses elite bat to ball skills that help him put the ball in play with extreme consistency. Unfortunately, those elite bat to ball skills don't translate into any power, as he's much more of a slash and dash type that throws the barrel at the ball and lets his legs do the rest. You'll see a lot of ground balls and line drives over the infielders' heads, but outfielders typically won't have to worry about guarding the warning track and he hit just one home run in three years of college ball. The Atlanta native doesn't project to add much, either, but the good news is that he is such a good pure hitter that his approach should have little difficulty transitioning to pro pitching. The Rays drafted Simpson as a shortstop, but he doesn't quite have the arm strength to play there and profiles better at second base. They may also deploy him in center field, where his speed would be fantastic.
CBB-71: SS Ryan Cermak, Illinois State. My rank: #77.
Slot value: $929,500. Signing bonus: $750,000 ($179,500 below slot value).
The Rays had two competitive balance picks in a row and used the second one on Illinois State center fielder Ryan Cermak. He's a very interesting player that has steadily improved throughout his time in Normal, culminating in a breakout 2022 in which he slashed .340/.441/.696 with 19 home runs and a 44/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. Cermak is an exceptional athlete that can do a lot well on the diamond, with easy plus speed and a great 6'1" frame. There are some moving parts in his right handed swing, which combined with an aggressive approach at the plate leads to more swing and miss than you'd like to see from a hitter in a mid major conference, but he did cut his strikeout rate from 25.1% in 2021 to 19.2% in 2022 while upping his walk rate from 8.4% to 13.1%. The Chicago native has shown off plus power in games to go with his plus speed, and with pro instruction in a system as strong as Tampa's, I imagine he'll only get better at deploying it. Cermak also shows off a plus arm that will make him an asset in center field, though the Rays interestingly drafted him as a shortstop despite having never played the position in college. He was a full time center fielder in 2022 but did play 20 games at third base from 2020-2021. Overall, I see some Joey Wiemer in this profile, as Wiemer was also a right handed hitter from a mid major Midwestern school that flashed big tools but required significant refinement. He's off to a great start to his pro career in the Brewers system, and Cermak could follow a similar ascent.
3-104: RHP Trevor Martin, Oklahoma State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $588,700. Signing bonus: likely a bit under slot value.
Trevor Martin is one of those power arms with big stuff that he struggles to execute consistently, meaning he'll fit right in with the Rays and probably come out a stud. He was up and down in 2022, where he posted a 4.75 ERA and a 79/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.1 innings for Oklahoma State, but he finished the season on a strong note by striking out sixteen Missouri State batters in that wild 29-15 game at the Stillwater Regional. Martin can run his fastball up to 98 in relief with explosive life from a low release point with tough angle, a true weapon when he harnesses it. He spins off a power slider that flashes and can also drop in a curveball and changeup, but all three secondaries are inconsistent, as is his command. The 6'5", 240 pound righthander looks like a starting pitcher and with careful development, could become a very useful one. He grew up in a very small town in rural Oklahoma and is just a true sophomore, although a junior by age, and he'll be jumping into a player development system that thrives on pitchers with unique stuff. I'm curious to see how this one turns out.
4-134: C Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt. My rank: #116.
Slot value: $439,600. Signing bonus: likely around slot value.
Dominic Keegan combines elite batted ball data with huge traditional stats in the SEC, making him one of the most sought after senior bats in the class. He was eligible for the 2021 draft after hitting .345/.427/.638 with 15 home runs for a Vanderbilt team that reached the College World Series, but teams didn't quite match his asking price and with a late birthday that made him 20 on draft day, he returned to Nashville for another year. Keegan put up even bigger numbers in 2022, slashing .371/.458/.646 with 14 home runs and a 51/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games for an otherwise disappointing Vanderbilt team. The Massachusetts product stands out first and foremost for his massive raw power, a plus-plus tool that he taps effortlessly in games with a simple right handed hack. He just flicks the barrel through the zone, then before you know it, there's a baseball in your windshield even though you swore you parked far enough away. There were some swing and miss concerns last year when he struck out at a 27.7% clip, but he dropped that number to 18.5% this spring while showing the same big time impact. Vanderbilt is always deep behind the plate and has usually had a better glove to stick back there, but Keegan did look like he improved this year and he has a chance to stick. The Rays have an extremely deep farm system but are a bit shallow (by their high standards) behind the plate, which may give Keegan some extra opportunity to prove he's capable of holding down the position. A below average runner with an average arm, he would have to play a corner if he could not stick. Though he's a senior sign, his August birthday means he was still 21 on draft day.
5-164: SS Jalen Battles, Arkansas. My rank: #165.
Slot value: $328,400. Signing bonus: $247,500 ($80,900 below slot value).
First of all, Jalen Battles is one of the best names in the entire draft class, so that's a plus right there. As for the player, he's been a known commodity for a while now and earned some mid round interest a year ago, but returned to Arkansas to build his stock. That looks like it worked out, as Battles slashed .289/.364/.480 with ten home runs and a 57/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games for the Razorbacks this season. He does a lot of things well, starting with very strong defensive acumen at shortstop where his springy athleticism, strong arm, and advanced instincts make him a real asset. He's a line drive hitter at the plate that makes a lot of hard contact, with his lean strength leading to some solid pull side power that will help him provide impact as he moves up. Though he struck out at a 20.3% clip this spring, it's an overall advanced package that can provide value on both sides of the ball. His glove will carry him to the big leagues, while his bat will keep him there and provides some upside. I see a very strong utility infielder in this package with a chance for more. The San Antonio native was a senior sign and will turn 23 in the offseason, but could move relatively quickly.
6-194: RHP Gary Gill Hill, Kennedy Catholic HS [NY]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $255,500. Signing bonus: likely above slot value.
Another pick, another great name. This is a prospect I really wish I had on my radar prior to the draft, because looking into him now, it is an extremely fun profile that only gets better now that it's in the Tampa Bay player development system. Gary Gill Hill is a 6'2" righty just dripping with projection, with a frame that is both ultra skinny and ultra athletic. He's smooth and explosive on the mound, generating natural power from his long arms and legs. The fastball sits in the low 90's for now, touching the mid 90's, but I have no doubt that he'll add at least a couple ticks to that as he fills out if not more. Honestly, this is an arm that could sit in the mid 90's one day and regularly bump the upper 90's. The offspeed stuff requires more projection, with a nice sweepy slider that he needs to tighten up significantly and a distant changeup, but Hill is extremely young for the class with his 18th birthday not coming until September. He may spend a couple years in the FCL and move slowly up the ladder, but if the Rays get this right which they are certainly capable of, they could have a real impact arm on their hands. Committed to Wake Forest, the New Yorker will likely require a sizable over slot bonus to sign here.
9-284: LHP Chris Villaman, North Carolina State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $157,000. Signing bonus: likely around slot value, possibly a bit above.
Chris Villaman has filled a variety of roles at NC State, but settled in as a long reliever in 2022 with a 3.40 ERA and an 85/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.2 innings. He showed flashes of greatness throughout the season and closed it out with six perfect innings against Pittsburgh and UNC (eleven strikeouts) in the ACC Tournament. Villaman is a fastball/changeup type that sits in the low 90's with good carry, touching the mid 90's, hiding the ball well along the way. The changeup plays very well off the fastball and when both are working. he can be untouchable. The 6'2" lefty also adds a slider but it's not the bat misser you look for in a pro pitcher and will be a point of emphasis going forward. Villaman goes right after hitters and rarely hurts himself with walks, so if you squint, you can see a move back to the rotation if he improves his feel for spin. The Rays will work towards that, but if not, a tick up in fastball velocity could make the North Carolina native a very useful fastball/slider reliever.
17-524: LHP Levi Huesman, Hanover HS [VA]. My rank: #110.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely well above $125K if he signs.
Levi Huesman is a Coastal Carolina commit that seems likely to reach campus, but I don't see any obvious over slot candidates in the top ten rounds for the Rays aside from Gary Gill Hill and they may end up with money left over to make a run here. Huesman has been somewhat inconsistent, but at his best, he looks like a second round pick. His fastball can dip into the upper 80's at times but has touched as high as 96 at others, while his slider shows great sweeping action and his changeup is a distant third pitch. The Richmond-area native is a great mover on the mound that gets out and releases the ball out front with great riding action and flat angle, helping his fastball play up above his velocity. At just 5'10", Huesman is not the most physical player in the draft and he'll turn 19 in August, making him more than a year older than Gill Hill. He'll need to get significantly stronger to add power to his stuff and maintain it over longer outings and longer seasons, and he'll also need to refine his changeup to avoid a career in the bullpen.
