2022 MLB Draft Review: Kansas City Royals

Full list of draftees

From Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar to Asa Lacy, the Royals have leaned heavily on college pitching lately to mixed results. This year, they started off their class with two college hitters, and in my opinion, they nailed those two picks. Both Gavin Cross and Cayden Wallace have a chance to hit in the middle of the lineup for a very long time, and they'll fit in great with that young core led by Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and co. After Cross and Wallace, KC moved back to college pitching and selected six such players with their next seven picks, targeting power arms that are toeing the line between starter and reliever profiles. In all, eleven of their twenty picks were college pitchers, following the precedent they've set in prior drafts. Right before wrapping things up, they did nab a fascinating two-way player out of the Bakersfield high school ranks in the twentieth round, so Austin Charles will be a very fun one to follow.
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1-9: OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech. My rank: #8.
Slot value: $5.2 million. Signing bonus: $5.2 million.
The highest draft pick in Virginia Tech history, beating out 2002 12th overall pick Joe Saunders, Gavin Cross was right in the middle of the Hokies' best ever season this year, slashing .328/.411/.660 with 17 home runs and a 41/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. That comes on the heels of an equally strong sophomore season in 2021 and a torrid .455/.474/.879 run with the US Collegiate National Team last summer, so he has as much offensive track record as anybody in this draft. Cross is a big, physical presence in the box at 6'3" and strapped with muscle, creating very difficult at bats for opposing pitchers. He hits the ball extremely hard, regularly posting elite exit velocities on hard line, deep fly balls, and scorching grounders all around the park. It translates to plus game power that could produce 30 or more home runs per season, and he will tap it in pro ball. Cross has always shown strong pitch recognition and bat to ball skills, but he had previously been an aggressive hitter that was prone to chasing just because he knew he could hit pitches out of the zone anyways. He cut back on those chases this spring and bumped his walk rate up from 7.3% a year ago to 10.7% this year, while also cutting his strikeout rate from 20.5% to 14.6%. Now, his advanced eye works to his favor, enabling him to confidently track good pitches to hit while letting the bad ones go. I see an above average hit tool with plus power, which would fit right in the middle of the lineup. Very athletic for his size, the northeast Tennessee native handled center field for the Hokies this spring and looked right at home, and the Royals have kept him there so far and will see what happens. If he gets pushed to right field by a quicker defender, which I would say is more likely than not, he has the strong arm to profile there and plenty of bat. Expect Cross to move rather quickly through the system, as he's already slashing .357/.449/.786 with four home runs and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Columbia.

2-49: 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas. My rank: #25.
Slot value: $1.58 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($115,100 above slot value).
I was a big fan of Cayden Wallace out of high school, and then he immediately jumped into a deep Arkansas lineup as a freshman in 2021 and held his own, appearing in all but three games. He took another step forward in 2022, slashing .298/.387/.553 with 16 home runs and a 56/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. I've gone a bit back and forth on him throughout his time at Arkansas, at times feeling a little concerned about his plate discipline and wondering if he had the power to back it up, but ultimately as the 2022 season went on, I leaned all in on the slugging third baseman and I absolutely love this pick. Wallace represents somewhat of a hometown pick for Kansas City, having grown up in the small north-central Arkansas town of Greenbrier before heading up to Fayetteville for college, just three and  half hours south of Kauffman Stadium on I-49. Like Gavin Cross, he shows the propensity for big time exit velocities, this time from the right side, showing very impressive power to the pull side but plenty enough to drive the ball out the other way as well. He lofts the ball well with some uppercut to his swing path, but he still keeps the barrel in the hitting zone for a long time and doesn't swing through many hittable pitches. A draft eligible sophomore, he only turned 21 after the draft, and there is still some work to be done on pitch selection, as he can be a little prone to chasing offspeed stuff. Given his age, it's nothing glaring and I don't expect it to be too much of an issue, and he has the chance to be an above average contact hitter to go along with plus power if he can tighten that up. Wallace has split reviews on his defense, with some thinking he would fit better in right field, but he's a third baseman for now and nobody questions his absolute cannon for an arm. He's a very good athlete and I think he'll stick at third with a little more refinement, which again brings his youth into the equation. He may not move quite as quickly as Cross, but I think the ceiling is very comparable. Like Cross, he's off to a red hot start and slashing .353/.488/.559 with one home run and a 6/8 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Columbia.

3-87: RHP Mason Barnett, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $724,600. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($27,100 below slot value).
Mason Barnett is a very interesting arm with a lot of talent that hasn't quite put it all together yet. It's the kind of pitcher that could make serious strides in the right organization, but I don't think that's the Royals, who have struggled to develop college pitching lately. Barnett has gradually earned more and more time in the rotation for Auburn, this year posting a 4.38 ERA and an 83/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.2 innings, mostly as a starter. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can hit 98 in short stints, with a pretty flat approach angle that plays down because hitters track it well out of his long arm action. He rips off a plus slider with sharp sweeping action, while also looping in a bigger curveball with depth that needs to add power and an average changeup. It's an arsenal full of potential, but he mainly pitches off his fastball and that lack of deception, in addition to fringy command, has kept him from putting up loud numbers. The 6' righty has a big frame and looks durable, but in order to stick as a starter, he'll have to get more consistent with his command and more effectively mix his pitches. If he does end up in the bullpen, the North Georgia product could be nasty with that fastball/slider combination and flip in a few curves and changeups to keep hitters off balance.

4-115: RHP Steven Zobac, California. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $528,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($28,000 below slot value).
Steven Zobac was a two-way player early in his California career, and as an underclassman actually looked more natural in the box than he did on the mound. But the arm strength was always there and he transitioned to pitching full time this spring, finishing with a 4.09 ERA and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings. His fastball has ticked up, now comfortably sitting in the low 90's as a starter and touching 96 in relief, coming in with flat plane and plenty of hop that makes it tough to square up. He works in an upper 80's cutter/slider with some late bite, also showing a bigger curveball and an average changeup. As he gets further and further into his pitching-only career, he has a chance to really sharpen that whole arsenal and potentially stick as a starter if he can hold onto average command. The 6'3" righty has projection remaining and is trending in the right direction, and he has a chance to turn into a #4 starter or a power reliever in time.

5-145: LHP Hunter Patteson, Central Florida. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $394,500. Signing bonus: $394,500.
Hunter Patteson was draft eligible last year, but with a 5.50 ERA as a swingman for UCF, he opted to return to school to build his stock. He came out of the gate red hot in 2022, posting a 1.82 ERA and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings and teaming with Connor Staine to give the Knights one of the best one-two punches in the country. Unfortunately, like Staine he got hurt in April, and in this case that led to Tommy John surgery that ended his season prematurely. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, showing serious hop that helps him miss more bats than the velocity says it should. The 6'4" lefty adds a slider and a changeup that are both solid average pitches, and his command has improved considerably during his time in Orlando. Royals fans will have to wait until 2023 to see Patteson on the mound, but once he does, he has the arm strength, command, and arsenal to start and potentially move quickly through the system. Given that he'll be turning 23 when that time comes, it also may make more sense to just stick him in the bullpen and let him pitch off that fastball, which could be overpowering in short stints.

6-175: C Hayden Dunhurst, Mississippi. My rank: #172.
Slot value: $298,800. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($1,200 above slot value).
This is a really interesting pick that has a chance to look like a steal. Hayden Dunhurst was a well-known draft name out of high school in 2019, but made it to campus at Mississippi and a .280/.385/.435 sophomore season put him squarely in the first round conversation as recently as six months ago. However, he was banged up early in the 2022 season and never got it going at the plate, finishing with an ugly .231/.370/.385 line, six home runs, and a 69/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Entering the season, he was noted for his strong plate discipline and all-fields contact ability in addition to underlying above average raw power, and 2022 was supposed to be a matter of him showing he could tap both without sacrificing the other. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to show either the hit tool or the power, leading to both that sub-.400 slugging percentage and a strikeout rate north of 30%. He packs a lot of compact strength into a shorter 5'11" frame, so getting back to showing that above average power in games is not out of the question. He's patient at the plate, his at bats seemed to speed up on him in 2022 and it really brings the swing and miss into question, so I'd be more confident in the power coming back than the hit tool. Fortunately, the southern Mississippi native is an excellent defender with an absolute cannon behind the plate, with improving glovework as well that looks like it should be above average. He'll certainly stick back there and the defense will buy his bat plenty of time to catch up, with a good shot at becoming a glove-first backup catcher if he can take better control of his at bats. The Royals' farm system is not very deep, but catching is a strong point between MJ Melendez (no longer prospect eligible), Luca Tresh, Kale Emshoff, and Carter Jensen. Dunhurst will really have to see a resurgence in his bat to push past those guys. So far, he has three hits in seven at bats, including two doubles, to go along with more walks (3) than strikeouts (2) through three games in the Arizona Complex League.

7-205: RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson. My rank: #201.
Slot value: $233,600. Signing bonus: $231,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
Mack Anglin earned draft interest as a sophomore last year, but turned down the Nationals in the thirteenth round to return to school. The results were more or less the same, so now he'll head to the Royals with intriguing upside but considerable work to be done after posting a 4.48 ERA and a 78/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings as a full time starter for Clemson. Anglin has nasty pure stuff, probably the best in this entire Royals draft class, starting with a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to 98 with explosive life. He throws a pair of vicious breaking balls in a curveball and slider, both of which flash plus with nasty, hard bite, while his changeup is a fringy fourth pitch. Despite explosive pure stuff, the Ohio native struck out only 22.6% of his opponents this spring as he regularly fell behind in the count and and became to predictable. He has a violent delivery that features a lot of late movement, causing him to struggle to repeat his release point and miss spots regularly. For that reason, he is almost certainly a reliever in pro ball, where his stuff could tick up even further as he really lets loose in short stretches. I am a bit concerned about that low strikeout rate but the idea of his stuff eating in the bullpen really intrigues me.

10-295: OF Levi Usher, Louisville. My rank: #223.
Slot value: $153,600. Signing bonus: $72,500 ($81,100 below slot value).
Levi Usher is an interesting senior sign, even if he lacks much upside. A native of Fairfax, Iowa, he graduated from Prairie High School in nearby Cedar Rapids and began his college career literally across the street at Kirkwood JC. There he was one of the best hitters on the Iowa JuCo circuit and made his way to Louisville, where he got off to a red hot start in 2020 before the pandemic shutdown and earned some first round consideration. Unfortunately he struggled to make any impact at all in 2021, lost his starting spot, and elected to return to school, where he rebounded to slash .285/.362/.455 with seven home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 67/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Usher stands out first and foremost as a heady player with tremendous understanding of the game, which at the very least makes him a good guy to have around in your system working alongside younger guys. He's a plus runner and his speed actually plays better than that in games due to his instincts, and in 182 career games between Kirkwood and Louisville he stole 109 bases in 117 attempts for an elite 93.2% success rate. That speed also helps him in center field, where he's a plus defender with great instincts. The bat isn't quite as impactful as we thought it was a couple years ago, showing more line drive and gap power than true over the fence power. Combine that with a 23.9% strikeout rate this spring, and you have a 45 hitter with 40 power that likely will never hit enough to hold down an every day role. However, if he can put just enough balls in the gaps to hold his own in the lineup as a backup, that speed and defense could be valuable in Kansas City. Usher is struggling so far in the Arizona Complex League, picking up just one hit in eighteen at bats with six strikeouts to three walks through six games.

11-325: RHP David Sandlin, Oklahoma. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
If you stretch your imagination a bit, David Sandlin represents a semi-hometown pick in the same way that Cayden Wallace does. A product of Owasso High School in the northern Tulsa suburbs, he grew up less than four hours southwest of Kansas City before heading the opposite direction to Eastern Oklahoma State in Wilburton and finally the University of Oklahoma. He was inconsistent throughout the season, posting a 5.59 ERA and a 102/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings, but like so many other members of this Sooners team, he came up big when he was needed most. He has plenty of pure stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that can reach 98 in addition to a slew of secondary stuff. His slider is his best pitch, with hard sweeping action that generates ugly swings, while his curveball is a little softer and deeper and his firm changeup provides another look. Sandlin comes from a higher release point and lacks deception, so hits stuff gets hit harder than it should when it catches too much plate. Tightening his fringe-average command will be helpful if he wants to remain a starter, as he does have the projectable 6'4" frame and deep arsenal to do so. If he does move back to the bullpen, he'll probably work off his fastball/slider combination and let an extra tick of velocity help make up for his somewhat generic fastball.

20-595: SS/RHP Austin Charles, Stockdale HS [CA]. My rank: #105.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $429,500 ($304,500 against bonus pool).
With their final pick of the draft, the Royals made a big splash by diverting Austin Charles away from a UC Santa Barbara commitment for top-150 money. One of two interesting two-way players in the Bakersfield high school ranks this spring, he'll get a chance to do both in the Royals system while his counterpart, Cutter Coffey, is a shortstop only in the Red Sox system. He's a big, lanky kid at 6'6", showing off plenty of athleticism and just oozing with potential. As a pitcher, he sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, adding in a solid slider and a fringy changeup. The fastball is fairly straight and the offspeed stuff is inconsistent, so you're really buying the projection here. In addition to that big frame, he has a very quick arm and gets down the mound well with good extension, so there is a ton to work with. With some patience and the right development, the sky is the limit for him on the mound. His bat has also rapidly been improving, and I actually like him better as a position player. He shows plus raw power when he connects, with a simple right handed swing in which he keeps his hands inside the ball and lets his natural strength and leverage do the work. He has previously bee susceptible to breaking balls, but he's trending in the right direction and taking better at bats. At shortstop, he shows off his athleticism well and while he's not quite as quick with his feet and glovework as perhaps he could be, he may just need more time to develop and grow into his body. With that cannon of an arm, he would fit extremely well at third base. I'm very interested to see how this goes, and he's already gotten into two Arizona Complex League games as a hitter, picking up two hits in seven at bats with one strikeout.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten players to watch this college season

The 2021 college baseball season is about to kick off, which means our draft rankings are about to get thrown for a loop. Every year, some top prospects underperform, while others come from nowhere into the spotlight. Meanwhile, some players come into the season with very straightforward profiles. We know Kumar Rocker and Ty Madden are going to shove, and we know Adrian Del Castillo and Matt McLain are going to hit. Game to game, of course scouts will have an eye on everything, but for the most part they know what to expect. They want to make sure Rocker fills up the strike zone consistently, maybe hoping for a few more swings and misses on his fastball, you know, the normal stuff. We're hoping McLain can draw a few more walks, but again, we're not expecting to see anything unexpected.

This list is for ten players who have a much wider range of plausible outcomes in 2021. Whether that's due to injuries, inconsistency, or something else, all eyes will be on these players' every move as scouts try to determine just what kind of prospects they are. Of course, I have a couple dozen I'd like to include here, so this is far from as exhaustive as I'd like to be. If you're a college baseball fan, here are ten players to keep an extra close eye on as the season gets underway.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
You had to know this one was coming. A top 100 prospect coming out of Ashdown High School outside Texarkana in 2018, Jaden Hill battled injuries in 2019 and the pandemic shut him down in 2020, so he has just 21.2 collegiate innings to his name. That said, those 21.2 innings were absolutely electric. The 6'4" righty showed up on campus with a big fastball/changeup combination, with the former now reaching the upper 90's and the latter looking like a plus pitch. He's since improved a devastating slider that flashes plus-plus at times, and he's been developing a shorter cutter to give hitters yet another look. On top of it all, he's shown the ability to harness and command his stuff despite its rapid improvement and his lack of consistent innings. Pitch for pitch, Hill has some of the most electric stuff in the class, but of course we know scouts would be much more confident if he showed he could hold it over a full season. 2021 will be his chance to do so, and if his stuff is as loud in July as it is in February, Hill could very well go first overall. He's that good.

OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
2019-2020: 9 HR, .301/.389/.470, 13 SB, 74/33 K/BB in 75 games.
Arkansas is known for its high powered offenses, producing big bats like Brian Anderson, Andrew Benintendi, Dominic Fletcher, Heston Kjerstad, and Casey Martin in recent years, with Benintendi and Kjerstad going in the top ten picks. As of now, Franklin fits more in the back of the first round or early second, but he absolutely has the ability to propel himself into the Benintendi/Kjerstad range. After holding his own as an SEC freshman in 2019 (6 HR, .274/.362/.419), he was off to a hot start in 2020 (3 HR, .381/.467/.619) and will look to build on that in 2021. Though he stands just 5'11", the Kansas City native has plus raw power from the right side that he can tap with explosive hands. He needs to add some loft to his swing, but Franklin already hits screaming line drives that regularly find holes and carry out over the fence anyways. He's also a plus runner who will stick in center field, adding to his upside. The biggest thing scouts want to see from the young outfielder will be plate discipline, as he can get over aggressive and swing through or chase quality stuff at times. That's the biggest thing holding him back right now, but even small improvement in that area likely lands him in the first round. Take a big step forward in that regard, and Franklin has the tools to challenge Jud Fabian, Adrian Del Castillo, Alex Binelas, and Matt McLain as the top hitter in the college class.

OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt
2019-2020: 7 HR, .300/.349/.590, 4 SB, 24/4 K/BB in 37 games.
I see numerous parallels between Christian Franklin and Isaiah Thomas, though the latter finds himself perhaps half a round behind his SEC counterpart at this point due to less of a track record. Currently more of a second rounder, Thomas, not to be confused with the NBA all star of the same name, could rocket into the first round with a strong spring. His explosive right handed bat can send baseballs traveling out of the park at high speeds, and that plus raw power has played in his small sample of games so far. The South Florida native also shows above average speed and a strong arm in center field, all a product of a wiry, athletic 6'2" frame. The main drawback in Thomas' game at this point is an extremely aggressive approach, one that has limited him to just four walks in 37 games but to this point has not impacted his production. If he can even show moderately improved patience in 2021, he has the chance to fly well into the first round with the strong performance he's capable of. Thomas has a chance to be a legitimate five tool player.

RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 IP.
Ryan Cusick is one of my favorite arms in this class. A product of Avon Old Farms School in Connecticut that produced George Springer and Orioles 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick has been up and down during his time at Wake Forest. He was hittable as a freshman, then as a sophomore he struck out 41.7% of his opponents but also walked 17.5%, both extremely high numbers. His game is very inconsistent in all respects, but when he's on, he's on. At best, the 6'6" righty can touch 97-98 with his fastball and sit in the mid 90's for innings at a time, putting great ride on the ball that makes it nearly impossible to square up. He drops in a slider that flashes legitimate plus, as well as a developing changeup and curveball. However, the fastball velocity has been known to dip closer to 90 at times, while the slider regularly flattens out into a below average pitch. The Massachusetts native showed well below average command in the brief 2020 season, but it looked closer to average in a brilliant summer turn through the Coastal Plain League, so it's hard to know what to make of his strike throwing ability. For all of those reasons, scouts will be keeping a very close eye on each of Cusick's starts, watching how his velocity holds, how consistently he can snap off that slider, what his command looks like, and whether he can take a step forward with his changeup or curveball. There are many moving parts here, but if he can get the most out of his exceptional natural ability, we could be looking at a top ten pick later on. Or conversely, Cusick could push himself out of Day One contention entirely.

RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)
2019-2020: 8-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106/45 K/BB in 99.1 IP.
Here we get to one of this fall's fastest risers. Looking at his stat line above against a tame MAC schedule, Sam Bachman doesn't look special, but I assure you he is. The Indianapolis-area native previously worked with a low 90's fastball, but he's been bumping the mid 90's more often and reportedly hit triple digits in fall practice. That pitch plays up further because of his unique data, crouching down in his delivery and coming from a low three quarters angle to create an extremely low release point without actually having to go sidearm. From there, its high spin rates give it immense ride up in the zone, making it one of the best fastballs in the class. He also adds a short, cutter-like slider that plays above average and flashes plus, and his fading changeup gives him a third above average pitch. Bachman's command has been steadily improving from average to above average to even plus at times, maximizing his ability to tunnel his pitches off each other. His fall blew some evaluators away, so they'll want to see him maintain that uptick in stuff and command in the spring. If the stocky 6'1" righty can maintain even close to what showed, it's a legitimate first round projection.

RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State
2019-2020: 1-1, 3.70 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 43/22 K/BB in 31.2 IP.
Here's yet another really interesting one. Eric Cerantola is a huge, 6'5" Canadian right hander with some crazy data behind his stuff. On the surface, he does not look like a Day One prospect, with a scattered track record of 31.2 moderately successful innings. The Toronto-area native has a very slow, deliberate delivery with very inconsistent arm slots and command, giving the impression that he doesn't actually have much feel for his lanky limbs or delivery. However, this is one of the more talented right arms in the class. While working in the low 90's as a starter, Cerantola dialed his fastball up to 98 in fall practice and the pitch plays up with tough angle. He also adds a curveball that flashes true plus, a low to mid 80's hammer with ridiculously high spin rates, and that's the pitch that makes him so interesting. Add in what could be an above average changeup, and you have some of the best stuff in the class from a 6'5" righty. This spring, evaluators will be watching to see how he holds up under a full time starting role. That means both the stuff, including velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball, and command, the latter of which he has no track record of consistency with. If Cerantola can prove he can start, he suddenly becomes a first round candidate, though for now he fits better in the second.

OF Levi Usher, Louisville
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 G.
Levi Usher comes to Louisville from Kirkwood CC in Iowa, where he obliterated opposing pitching to the tune of a .409/.493/.538 line in 53 games. He continued just the same for the Cardinals, where he hit .411/.484/.571 in 16 games. However, two uninspiring runs through the Northwoods League in 2019 and 2020 (combined .261/.337/.373) temper excitement just a little, leaving evaluators ready to watch his 2021 at bats very closely. Usher has a broad base of above average tools, showing nice pure hitting ability, speed, and power. The hitting ability and speed (47 SB between Kirkwood and Louisville) have played up exceptionally well against weaker opponents, and there is enough strength packed into his 6' frame to project at least average power. To this point, he has shown an aggressive approach that limits his walks and causes some minor swing and miss concerns, so tightening that up will help scouts feel more comfortable his approach will hold up in pro ball. Additionally, the so-so performance in the Northwoods League raises slight concerns about how his power will play with wood bats, but unlike the approach questions, there's not much he can do about that one with metal bats at Louisville aside from just hit for more power. With his lack of track record at the Division I level and especially his lack of track record in conference play, Usher's 2021 could go a lot of different ways. Sort of like Kameron Misner a couple years ago, though Misner ended up slumping through SEC play.

RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia
2020: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12/2 K/BB in 11.1 IP.
Georgia pitching is on a strong draft run over the last three years. In 2019, it was Tony Locey (third round) and Tim Elliott (fourth round), and in 2020, it was Emerson Hancock (first round) and Cole Wilcox (third round). In 2021, Georgia could have two more, with Ryan Webb and draft-eligible sophomore Jonathan Cannon. Cannon worked in long relief on that deep Georgia pitching staff last year, and looked brilliant in five appearances. He's a lanky, 6'6" right hander with some of the louder stuff in the SEC, touching 96-97 with his fastball and adding an above average slider and a potentially plus changeup. Additionally, he flashes solid-average command, which is pretty impressive for a young lanky pitcher. The Atlanta-area native has all of the ingredients necessary to be an impact starting pitcher, but he has to put it together consistently in 2021 in order to go in the first round. It's one thing to flash three above average pitches and average command in 11.2 innings of long relief, but it's another to hold that over 5-6 innings a start for a full season. If he does, we have a first rounder. He won't turn 21 until after the draft, making him one of the younger college arms available, yet he's already looked fairly advanced in his small sample.

LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati
2019-2020: 5-8, 5.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 104/57 K/BB in 84.1 IP.
For the most part, Kansas State's Jordan Wicks is regarded as the best college lefthander in the class, with Michigan's Steven Hajjar, Mississippi State's Christian MacLeod, and Texas' Pete Hansen making up the group right behind him. However, those who value pitch data would through another name into that ring, Cincinnati's Evan Shawver. The Cleveland-area native was not a big name recruit and struggled as a freshman (7.15 ERA, 69/48 K/BB), but he's quietly built up his draft stock in the time since then and put up a 1.59 ERA and a 35/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings in 2020, including five hitless innings against Florida State. Shawver is an undersized lefty at a listed 6', 175 pounds, so he makes up for his lack of size in other ways. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he can reach back for 95-97 and the spin rates on the pitch make it play up. He also drops in a potentially plus slider with late movement and an above average changeup, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. Shawver has refined his command considerably since making it to campus, now comfortably average, something that will be very important as his size brings relief questions. If the little lefty can hold his command and stuff over a full season in 2021, he has a chance to shed those relief questions and move into the first round range.

OF John Rhodes, Kentucky
2020: 1 HR, .426/.485/.672, 1 SB, 5/2 K/BB in 17 games.
Out of everyone on this list, John Rhodes is probably the one we know the least about. With pitchers, we can still watch them pitch in small samples and see their stuff, but hitting is reactive, and Rhodes hasn't put up a big enough sample for evaluators to get a strong feel for his ability. That's why his 2021 will be watched so closely. The Chattanooga native arrived on campus without a ton of fanfare, but ripped .426/.485/.672 with twelve extra base hits and just five strikeouts in seventeen games before the shutdown in 2020. He kept hitting in the Northwoods League over the summer (.378/.495/.500 in 27 games), and with an August birthday, he's one of the youngest draft-eligible sophomores in the class. Rhodes isn't huge at a listed 6', 200 pounds, but he finds the barrel extremely easily from the right side with a disciplined approach that will always enable him to post high on-base percentages. So far, his power has played mostly to the gaps and it's not clear how much over-the-fence pop he'll develop, but he could provide some clarity on that in 2021. The development of his power, as well as whether his exceptional on-base ability holds up against that gauntlet of SEC pitching, will determine whether Rhodes can crack the top fifty picks this summer.

Others

LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan): 6'5" lefty that has flashed plus stuff, but has limited track record after an ACL injury wiped out his true freshman season. Huge ceiling if he performs up to his potential.

C Luca Tresh (North Carolina State): Power hitting catcher trending up after a huge fall, will take over for 2020 first rounder Patrick Bailey behind the plate in Raleigh. Scouts want to see him make enough contact to tap his big power as well as continued progress in his glove.

OF Robby Martin (Florida State): Outfielder that has gotten bigger at FSU, growing into power but still has a line drive/opposite field approach. He's not quite as advanced as JJ Bleday was entering his junior season two years ago, but Martin really reminds me of Bleday at that time, before the big power breakout.

RHP Tommy Mace (Florida): Senior college starter who was arguably the best undrafted college player last year, betting on himself for another go around. Reportedly has seen the uptick in stuff scouts had been waiting for since his high school days, needs to prove it over a full season to maintain prospect status.

RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina): Another top undrafted arm, huge 6'6", 240 pound right hander with a fastball that can creep into triple digits. Also shows a big curve and advanced changeup, but has battled injuries at ECU and never put together a full season.

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on October 27th.

The third conference in our draft preview series, the ACC class is shaping up very differently than the Big 12 and the SEC.

The Big 12 is led by big arms in Texas’ Ty Madden and Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks, but is virtually devoid of true impact bats. Meanwhile, the SEC has some big name bats in Florida’s Jud Fabian, Arkansas’ Christian Franklin, and Tennessee’s duo of Jake Rucker and Max Ferguson, but aside from Fabian, most of the bats in the conference have a lot to prove in 2021. Meanwhile, here in the ACC, we’re absolutely loaded with offensive firepower, to the point that only two pitchers crack the ACC’s top ten prospects. They say that SEC hitters have to face a “gauntlet” of high powered arms, and that’s certainly true this year with too many to name. Over in the ACC, it will be the pitchers who will have to run down a gauntlet of high powered lineups.

Louisville, after putting five players into pro ball last year despite the shortened draft, dominates this list with two of the top three and four of the top ten names and a couple more who just missed the cut. Miami, who lost its entire weekend rotation but brings in arguably the top recruiting class in the entire country, will be a hotspot for 2021 draft talent as well, and Boston College might have the best collection of talent in recent program memory. Below are the top ten 2021 prospects in the ACC, followed by a team by team rundown of other names to watch (with apologies to Pittsburgh and my alma mater, Virginia Tech, who just don’t have much going for them).

1. C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’11”, 210 lbs. Born 9/27/1999. Hometown: Miami, FL
2019-2020: 14 HR, .336/.430/.571, 4 SB, 32/43 K/BB in 77 games.

Ironically, the top offensive prospects in the SEC (Jud Fabian) and ACC share a birthday on September 27th, only Adrian Del Castillo will be turning 21 and Fabian will be turning 20 because he reclassified. Del Castillo is simply a hitter – he hit .331/.418/.576 as a true freshman, then .358/.478/.547 as a sophomore, and sandwiched between that was a respectable .273/.323/.427 line in the elite Cape Cod League as a teenager. Not only is he the ACC’s top offensive prospect this year, he’s right up there with Fabian and UCLA’s Matt McLain as arguably college baseball’s top offensive prospect as a whole.

The bat is legit. A left handed hitter, Del Castillo combines a clean, compact swing with great extension through the ball and plenty of strength packed into his 5’11” frame. This enables the Miami native to show above average power in games, and with five home runs on the Cape as a teenager, he can get to it with wood bats and against high level pitching. More impressive than his power, however, is his professional approach at the plate. He’s extremely disciplined with just a 12.9% strikeout rate for his career at Miami compared to a 17.3% walk rate, and that’s been against a tough schedule. He should have no trouble not only handling professional pitching, but hitting for impact.

Del Castillo's defense is another story. The exceptional feel he shows for hitting carries over behind the plate, where he's a fundamentally sound catcher who gets the job done all around. However, he lacks the explosive arm strength of many of his contemporaries and the raw athleticism to create the "brick wall" effect. Given his work ethic and feel for the game, it's easy to see him working his way towards average defense, and if he can indeed stick behind the plate, the bat will be special. Even if he's forced off of catcher to first base or left field, where he'd likely be below average, the bat is potent enough to still warrant a first round selection. At his ceiling, Del Castillo could produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages.

2. C Henry Davis, Louisville – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 195 lbs. Born 9/21/1999. Hometown: Bedford, NY
2019-2020: 6 HR, .303/.381/.463, 1 SB, 22/21 K/BB in 59 games.

The ACC starts off with not one, but two elite catchers, though Henry Davis is a very different prospect from Adrian Del Castillo. A well-known defense-first prospect coming out of the New York high school ranks, he made it to Louisville and held his own with a .280/.345/.386 slash line as a freshman, elevating his stock a little bit. Then, he returned as a sophomore in 2020 and smoked the baseball nonstop, slashing .372/.481/.698 with three home runs and twice as many walks as strikeouts in 14 games. And while the schedule wasn’t particularly strong, he did pick up four hits, including three doubles, in eight at bats (plus two walks) against Ole Miss and homered against Wake Forest. The result is a defense-first catcher who suddenly knows how to hit, which is, you know, ideal.

Let’s talk about that bat. It was pretty light in high school, not uncommon for catchers even heading to premium programs like Louisville. The first thing he showed as a freshman was the hit tool, as he struck out in just 12.2% of his plate appearances – very impressive for a 19 year old in the ACC. Then in 2020, albeit in a small sample size, came the power, when he homered in his final two games against Wake Forest and Chicago State. Davis derives that power from a crouched load, using his legs to explode outwards at the baseball and plus bat to ball skills to find the barrel more and more consistently.There’s some minor bat wrap in that setup, but that above average to potentially plus hit tool allows me to be comfortable with it overall. The overall setup might need to be quieted just a bit in pro ball, but again, with his great feel for the barrel, I’m not worried.

On defense, he has always stood out for an exceptional right arm that can virtually shut down the running game, having thrown out 12/33 runners so far at Louisville. His glovework is more ordinary, but as with Del Castillo, it’s trending in the right direction and he should be a net-positive overall with that arm. He’ll more than likely stick behind the plate, making his offensive profile much more appealing. If he can continue hitting in 2021 like he did in 2020, when he showed a plus hit tool and solid average power in a small sample, he could vault himself into top ten pick consideration, much like Dillon Dingler may have with more opportunity last year.

3. 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3, 210 lbs. Born 5/26/2000. Hometown: Oak Creek, WI
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.

Henry Davis just edges out Alex Binelas on my draft board, but Binelas might have the most exciting bat in the Louisville lineup, itself one of the strongest in the entire country. Hailing from the Milwaukee-area prep ranks, he burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2019 and slashed .291/.383/.612 with 14 home runs and 33 extra base hits overall in 59 games, immediately establishing himself as one of the top names in a draft that was still two years away at the time. His encore in 2020 ended abruptly when he injured his hand against Ole Miss in just the second game of the season, so for now, all we have to go off is that exceptional freshman season.

The very first thing I notice with Binelas, beyond the numbers, is his swing. It’s lightning quick and incredibly explosive, allowing him to punish velocity by sending the baseball impressive distances. It can get a little choppy at times, which leads to some swing and miss questions, but it’s hard to teach bat speed like that. His plate discipline was decent but nothing special in that big freshman season, though it’s a bit unfair to judge his approach based on a freshman run through the ACC. 2021 will be a big opportunity for him to elevate his stock in that regard, especially considering the tangential questions about his hit tool. Still, you don’t knock 33 extra base hits as a freshman in the ACC without at least some feel for hitting, and his offensive upside is perhaps the best in the ACC.

On defense, we see somewhat of a similar story. Binelas shows a strong arm from third base, though he’s a bit choppy with the glove and makes for a decent overall third baseman. A few years ago, scouts might have been comfortable calling it “good enough” and letting him deploy that arm over there, but with shifting becoming a huge part of a third baseman’s job, his range becomes a little more stretched. That could lead to a move to first base or right field depending on his progress, where the pressure would increase on his hit tool. He has some to prove in 2021, but his combination of upside and college track record will be hard to match anywhere in the draft.

4. OF Sal Frelick, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’9″, 175 lbs. Born 4/2000. Hometown: Lexington, MA
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.

Boston College has the best group of draft talent it’s seen in years, and right at the top of that list is Sal Frelick. Though smaller in stature, he’s exploding with tools and jumped out to a .367/.447/.513 slash line with 18 stolen bases and more walks (22) than strikeouts as a freshman in 2019. Though his 2020 started slower before the shutdown (.241/.380/.414), he picked it right back up in summer ball with a .398/.473/.592 run through the FCBL. No question, this kid can flat out play.

Frelick’s big numbers have mostly come from a true plus hit tool, which has enabled him to strike out in just 8.8% of his plate appearances so far at Boston College. Though undersized, his exceptional feel for the barrel combined with innate athleticism enables him to hit for more power than you’d expect, with plenty of doubles, triples, and even home runs. The Boston-area native shows plus-plus speed that has enabled him to steal 25 bases in 28 tries at BC, and that becomes 35 bases in 39 tries when combined with his summer stats. He shows great range in the outfield and should be an asset in center field, giving him nearly the total package.

Let’s talk swing mechanics. Frelick has a simple swing in which he keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time, which is a good thing, and when he gets his pitch, it can be a really smooth, pretty swing at that. His mechanics can vary more than most tend to, and when he doesn’t get his pitch, he tends to flail at the ball. The good news is that his elite barrel control still enables him to make very consistent contact on those pitches, and strikeouts have never been even remotely a concern. Watching him hit, it’s actually pretty impressive to see him way out on his front foot and still drop singles the other way or put difficult pitches in play, but going forward he’ll probably want to accept a little more swing and miss so that he can get his “A” swing off more often than not. With his strong pitch recognition skills, a more consistently upright Frelick could be a true impact hitter at the next level, despite being one of the smallest guys on the field.

5. RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 225 lbs. Born 11/12/1999. Hometown: Sudbury, MA
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 innings.

In contrast to the hitters, there aren’t any truly complete pitching prospects in the ACC. Ryan Cusick can’t even be considered the closest in that regard, but the stuff is nonetheless exciting. Though he hails from the Boston suburbs, Cusick attended the Avon Old Farms boarding school in Connecticut that produced George Springer and 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin, and looks to be the latest in a strong line of baseball players from the Hartford-area powerhouse. His freshman season was pretty ordinary in 2019, putting up a 6.44 ERA and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio across 65.2 innings, but he raised a lot of eyebrows in 2020 when his stuff took a big step forward. That led to a 3.22 ERA and a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings, and in this case, scouting the stat line does indeed tell the story.

Cusick is a 6’6″ right hander with wicked stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, can bump as high as 97-98, and you’ll notice in this video that he hit 95 on his 103rd and final pitch of the game against Louisville. He can also rip off a wicked slider with serious bite, a true plus pitch at its best, but at times it can flatten out considerably. His third pitch is his changeup, which he doesn’t use often, but he can flash a solid average one with nice fade to the arm side. All of this was on full display in the Coastal Plain League over the summer, where he dominated with a 1.14 ERA and a 40/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings.

Of course, the big question here is command and consistency, with the aforementioned breaking ball problems and the fact that he walked 18 batters in 22.1 innings last year. Prior to that, though, he had only walked 36 batters in 101.1 innings between his freshman season and the Cape Cod League, and then he walked just nine in 23.2 innings this summer. That suggests that he may simply need time to learn to harness that newfound stuff, and if the summer numbers are telling the truth, he already has. Cusick is a prime contender for a breakout in 2021, one who could rocket up boards similarly to how Bobby Miller did so a year ago. He clearly has the arm strength to start, so if he can just take even incremental steps forward with his consistency and command, good things will happen to his projections. If not, he has a high floor as a fastball/slider reliever who could see high leverage innings in the big leagues.

6. 2B Cody Morissette, Boston College – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 175 lbs. Born 1/16/2000. Hometown: Exeter, NH
2019-2020: 6 HR, .346/.402/.512, 11 SB, 43/29 K/BB in 73 games.

Sal Frelick and his teammate Cody Morissette form arguably the best 1-2 lineup punch in college baseball, and while they have put up similar numbers at Boston College, they’re very different players. Morissette gave a strong first impression as a freshman in 2019, hitting .320/.371/.476 across 58 games, then exploded for a .448/.522/.655 line in 15 games a s a sophomore in 2020. That wasn’t a product of a weak schedule, as he picked up six hits in three games against Arizona State and eight hits in three games against Clemson.

We could go on and on about how Frelick’s tools impact the game, but with Morissette, he just hits – and I mean that as a compliment. He has no trouble squaring up advanced pitching with a very steady hit tool and emerging power, and he’s been extremely consistent at BC. It may seem like a high-floor, low-ceiling projection, but that consistent bat has shown more and more impact over time and he could be ready for a very loud 2021 campaign. At six feet tall, the New Hampshire native doesn’t have a big frame but isn’t the smallest guy on the field either, so the hope is that he could end up with a 15-20 home run bat down the line.

Defensively, Morissette won’t wow anybody, looking more than capable at second base but probably a bit stretched at shortstop. If he doesn’t generate enough impact to start, he could handle the prime position on a part time basis, and his experience all over the diamond aids him in the shifting era. Personally, I see some Keston Hiura here (albeit in the other batters box), though Hiura had that huge junior season going for him and Morissette looks to be the slightly better defender. Hiura went ninth overall out of UC Irvine in 2017, so don’t sleep on Morissette’s draft ceiling if he can put together a big junior year like he’s capable of.

7. OF Robby Martin, Florida State – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 210 lbs. Born 8/17/1999. Hometown: Tampa, FL
2019-2020: 4 HR, .317/.408/.440, 3 SB, 76/45 K/BB in 80 games.

The bats just keep on coming. Leading the way in one of the most talented outfields in the country is Florida State’s Robby Martin, a steady .317/.408/.440 hitter during his time in Tallahassee. A highly touted prep outfielder coming from the Tampa area, Martin has steadily improved at FSU and now has evaluators excitedly pegging him for a breakout.

More about projection as a high schooler, Martin now has legitimate tools across the board and can impact the game in many ways. He’s maintained the above average speed and strong hit tool from high school, but with lots of added strength and a track record of hitting in college, he’s a much more complete prospect. Martin uses and opposite field approach that results in a lot of line drives and otherwise hard contact, which has enabled him to produce at FSU and in the Florida Collegiate Summer League (.313/.397/.417).

To this point, he hasn’t shown much in-game power, but he has really tacked on strength in Tallahassee and filled out his 6’3″ frame. Though his power isn’t quite as robust, he finds himself in a similar position to where Vanderbilt’s JJ Bleday was heading into the 2019 season, and a more power conscious and launch angle-conscious swing could have him headed for a breakout. If so, we could be talking straight 55 grades across almost every tool and a first round selection.

8. 3B Zack Gelof, Virginia – ACC

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 10/19/1999. Hometown: Lewes, DE.
2019-2020: 7 HR, .321/.399/.472, 20 SB, 70/37 K/BB in 74 games.

As someone who played a lot of baseball on the Delmarva Peninsula growing up, it’s cool to see the region’s first big name draft prospect since Tyler Webb (via South Carolina in 2013). While they’re not the best at cranking out reliable pitching, UVA has a nice track record of producing competent, disciplined hitters like Pavin Smith, Adam Haseley, and Matt Thaiss in recent years, and Delaware native Zack Gelof is one of two big bats they’re sending out this year. He adapted to college pitching well as a freshman (.313/.377/.396), hit well in the Northwoods League over the summer (.349/.426/.490), and was off to an exceptional start in 2020 with a .349/.469/.746 line and five home runs in eighteen games.

Gelof does not have one standout tool, but shows well across the board. He’s smoothed out his right handed swing since high school and has produced plenty of hard contact in college, using Davenport Field’s spacious gaps to his advantage for plenty of extra base hits. He started turning those gappers into home runs in 2020, and evaluators are excited to see if he can maintain that power surge in 2021. If so, it would help alleviate some questions about his hit tool, as he is very adept at finding the barrel but has not shown the great K/BB ratio’s seen with many of his predecessors in Charlottesville. In 2020, he upped his walk rate to a nice 15.9%, but still struck out 22% of the time after showing similar strikeout rates throughout his career.

Gelof finds himself in a good spot heading into 2020. By either maintaining his power surge or lowering his strikeout rate, he could easily find himself in the first round. However, if he can’t do either, I think most evaluators would feel more comfortable pegging a 50 hit, 50 power third baseman in the second. His glove should help him, as he’s proven very capable at third base and will easily handle shifting. There are a lot of 50’s and 55’s in his profile, not too dissimilar to Robby Martin above him on this list, though Martin is just a little bit toolsier. Gelof is praised for his feel for the game and ability to play above his tools.

9. OF Levi Usher, Louisville – ACC

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 210 lbs. Born 6/25/2000. Hometown: Fairfax, IA
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 games.

The last three players on this list (Cody Morissette, Robby Martin, and Zack Gelof) did a lot of things well, but didn’t flash individual “wow” tools. Levi Usher, the third member of the Louisville lineup on this list, has wow tools. He put up some eye popping numbers at Iowa’s Kirkwood CC, slashing .409/.493/.538 with 36 stolen bases in 53 games, then kept on hitting with a similar .411/.484/.571 line and eleven stolen bases for Louisville in 2020. Together, that makes for one exciting player heading into 2021.

Usher is the prototypical “raw, toolsy athlete.” He has a very loose, athletic left handed swing and a line drive approach that has served him exceptionally well so far, absolutely beating up on weaker opponents throughout his career. Given his strength and operation, you can project some power as well, likely enough for 15-20 home runs a year in the big leagues. He does come with some strikeout concerns, but he’s done so much damage on balls in play that it’s easy to overlook those for now. Then we have the plus to plus-plus speed that has given him 47 stolen bases in 69 games between Kirkwood and Louisville, which will serve him very well on both sides of the ball. Combine “raw and toolsy” with on-base percentages near .500, and you’re in business.

The one main knock on Usher is not really his fault. He didn’t face strong competition in the Iowa JUCO ranks, and while he combined to go 10-22 against Ole Miss and Wake Forest in 2020, there hasn’t been much sample size against legitimate pitching staffs. Over two summers in the Northwoods League, he’s slashed just .261/.337/.373 with a 46/17 strikeout to walk ratio, leading to some questions as to how his approach will play against advanced pitching and how his power will play with wood bats. Still, you can’t deny the production he’s had with metal bats and the tools are outstanding, so another strong season in the Cardinals’ lineup could make him an easy first round pick. Scouts will be watching his run through ACC play very closely in 2021.

10. RHP Jack Perkins, Louisville

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 200 lbs. Born 12/26/1999. Hometown: Kokomo, IN
2019: 3-0, 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 37/18 K/BB in 32.1 IP.

Our fourth member of the Louisville program to crack this top ten list, Jack Perkins is somewhat similar to Levi Usher in that he lacks much of a track record. He put up a 4.18 ERA and struck out 37 batters as a freshman reliever in 2019, but he also walked 18 in 32.1 innings and went down with Tommy John surgery in June of that year. After missing the 2020 college season, he got on the mound for 18.1 more innings in summer ball with more of the same – 2.45 ERA, 23/14 K/BB. Now a redshirt sophomore, he heads into 2021 with as much to prove as anybody.

The 6’1″ righty shows electric stuff from the right side. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out at 97 in relief, while his slider flashes plus and can miss bats in bunches. We also have a curveball and changeup, but those two pitches are well behind the fastball and slider. Perkins gets some deception from a bit of a crossfire deliver, but there is some effort there as well, which is more concerning combined with his surgery. If Perkins wants to start in pro ball, he’ll also have to improve his command considerably, as the jerk in his delivery can cause him to lose his release point.

We’re talking about a high ceiling and a low floor for Perkins, clearly. Tommy John surgery is commonplace these days and he’s fully healthy now, so if he can just get some innings under his belt, it might be all he needs to improve that command and his curve or changeup. Smoothing out his delivery would help as well, as it could be the root of his command problems. There’s a good chance he’s forced to the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination could really play up, but teams would like to send him out as a starter if possible.

Other ACC Interesting Options

Boston College:

Sal Frelick and Cody Morissette provide the most exciting prospect duo the Eagles have seen in recent memory, but we’re also excited for Friday nights in Chestnut Hill. Mason Pelio is BC’s best pitching prospect since Justin Dunn, having put up a 3.73 ERA and an 81/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for his career. He lacks the explosive stuff seen in top ten ACC prospects Ryan Cusick and Jack Perkins, but he’s much more pro-ready than either of them. He has a big, durable frame at 6’3″ and has averaged five and a half innings per start, deploying a cutting low 90’s fastball and an above average changeup. His cutter means he has been adept at missing barrels, but the lack of a good breaking ball has limited his bat-missing ability and at this point he projects as a #4 or #5 starter. Improving his breaking ball to at least average would be the biggest thing he could do. With slightly above average command, fine tuning that just a little into a true 55 could take pressure off his breaking ball.

Clemson:

The Tigers didn’t put a single player in the top ten, but that doesn’t mean they’re devoid of draft talent. Davis Sharpe is the ACC’s best two-way prospect, having hit .276/.392/.431 with seven home runs at Clemson while putting up a 3.33 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings on the mound. Though he shows power and patience at the plate, his bat is probably a little light for first base, so his future is likely on the mound. His fastball sits around 90 but can touch 95, and his slider flashes above average to even plus at times. The 6’4″ righty has some effort in his delivery but does a good job of throwing strikes, and could be a breakout candidate for 2021. Neither Carter Raffield nor Mack Anglin have much in the way of track record, but both can hit the mid 90’s with their fastballs and could take big steps forward in 2021. Lastly, Adam Hackenberg was a highly touted name coming out of the Virginia high school ranks, but he’s still looking for a breakout. His cannon arm will help him stick behind the plate, taking pressure off his bat. He’s shown plus raw power in batting practice but it comes at the expense of his hit tool, with an aggressive approach and a lot of swing and miss. Any improvement in his offensive game will make him a priority for area scouts.

Duke:

A year after producing first rounder Bryce Jarvis, the Blue Devils have two names that just missed the top ten. Cooper Stinson is the younger brother of former Blue Devil and current Rays prospect Graeme Stinson, and he has momentum heading into 2021. Stinson finished 2020 with a 0.42 ERA and a 24/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 21.2 innings against a schedule that included Minnesota and Florida State. He sits around 90 with his fastball but tends to pitch above that number more than below, and his quick right arm puts nice angle on the ball. The 6’6″ righty also shows a good slider and a changeup, with his control improving in 2020 as well. Command can still be a bit shaky, but he’s one of the most complete pitchers in the ACC. We also have Ethan Murray, a career .293/.394/.434 hitter in Durham. He’s one of those guys with no standout tool but no weaknesses either, showing great plate discipline and a consistent, line drive approach at the plate. There isn’t much power at this point, but he should produce enough doubles and triples to keep pitchers honest. As with his bat, his feel for the game stands out more than his physical tools on defense, with the polish to handle shortstop but perhaps not the arm strength and athleticism. Sticking there would give him a better chance to play full time, but his most likely role is as a utility infielder who can impact the game in a lot of ways. Joey Loperfido is behind Stinson and Murray on draft boards, showing lots of average tools but having yet to put it together. A likely outfielder who has played almost everywhere, he has some power, some speed, and solid plate discipline, but he’ll need to find a way to impact the game consistently in pro ball.

Florida State:

Robby Martin is easily the best prospect in Tallahassee, but he’s part of one of the most talented outfields in college baseball with Reese Albert and Elijah Cabell. Albert was eligible in 2020 but withdrew from the draft, and now carries a career .270/.381/.491 slash line into 2021. Albert is a pretty basic “college performer” type who has shown some power, the ability to get to it in games, a patient approach, and steady overall performance. With a July birthday, he’s not much older than most first time eligible players, and brings a track record that many cannot match. He’s a bit of a sleeper to become a useful platoon or full time bat down the road. Cabell, meanwhile, was also draft eligible in 2020, but went undrafted despite a hot .263/.488/.649 start to the season. Despite being a class below Albert, he’s actually slightly older, and shows louder tools. Cabell has huge raw power and some surprising speed, but has also struck out in nearly 40% (!) of his plate appearances. Because of this, evaluators have serious questions as to whether he’ll reach that power in pro ball, coming into the 2021 draft with a similar profile to Bobby Dalbec. On the mound, Jack Anderson is a breakout candidate with a low 90’s fastball and a solid breaking ball. To this point, he’s struggled to find innings on that crowded FSU pitching staff.

Georgia Tech:

GT is another school loaded with prospects who just missed the top ten list. Luke Waddell returns a career .308/.410/.409 hitter, an extremely polished bat with great consistency. At a stocky 5’9″, he doesn’t profile for much power, and has just four career home runs for the Yellow Jackets, so the upside is limited. Given that he’ll turn 23 during the 2021 draft, he has a pretty clear high floor, utility profile. He profiles best at second base but can handle shortstop if needed. Brant Hurter is listed at 6’6″, 250 pounds, and was also eligible in 2020. He was dominant as a sophomore in 2019 (2.42 ERA, 58/14 K/BB) but missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery, and is now healthy. Hurter effectively commands a low 90’s fastball and a sharp slider, giving him a chance to start despite turning 23 shortly after the draft. He’s a bit of a sleeper. Luke Bartnicki and Cort Roedig bring more exciting stuff, but both can be enigmatic. Bartnicki was a well-known draft prospect as a high schooler and has shown flashes of dominance in Midtown Atlanta, but hasn’t put it together quite yet. His low 90’s fastball can touch 94-95 without much effort, and his low three quarters arm slot makes him tough on lefties. The 6’3″ lefty also shows a good slider that can elicit chases and miss bats when he’s ahead in the count, but his command has made everything play down so far. Roedig, meanwhile, has an unconventional windup in which he crouches, quickly replaces his feet as fast as he can, then slows up again to deliver the ball. His fastball can touch 97 with high spin rates, and his high spin slider flashes above average as well. To this point, he’s been around the strike zone but everything has been inconsistent, and he might need to settle down just a little bit to take full advantage of his stuff. He profiles as a reliever at this point but if he just calms down a little, he might be able to surprise some people.

Louisville:

The Cardinals put four names in the top ten and we’ve got even more to talk about. Michael Kirian was eligible in 2020 but went undrafted, and now with Reid Detmers and Bobby Miller out of his way, he has a chance to prove himself as a starter. The 6’6″ lefty has been untouchable with a 1.41 ERA and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings the last two seasons, all in relief. He has a low 90’s fastball that touches 95 as well as a good curveball, and as a starter in 2021 he’ll get to show off his less used cutter and changeup. If he can maintain his velocity in a starting role, he’ll fly up boards, because I always thought the stuff was a little light for relief. Jared Poland can challenge Davis Sharpe as the best two-way prospect in the ACC, though I still prefer Sharpe. Poland hasn’t performed much at the plate or on the mound yet for Louisville, showing a low 90’s fastball and a nice changeup on the mound combined with a good hit tool at the plate. He looked good on the Cape as a pitcher, and refining his breaking ball a little could make him a legitimate #3/#4 starter prospect. At the plate, he has started to tap some power and needs to continue that to profile as more than a utility infielder. We also have Glenn Albanese, a pure relief prospect with a mid 90’s fastball and a curveball that flashes plus. He struck out 18 of the 37 batters he faced in 2020 and more of the same could make him one of the top relief names in the draft.

Miami:

The Hurricanes pulled in a fantastic incoming recruiting class, giving Adrian Del Castillo lots of high octane arms to work with. One of those is JUCO transfer Jake Smith, who had a 1.59 ERA and a 59/8 strikeout to walk ratio at State College of Florida last year. The 6’5″ righty is a breakout candidate on the back of a plus fastball that can hit 97 with solid command. He’ll need to refine his offspeed pitches a bit more but could fly up boards if he does. 6’1″ lefty JP Gates is another breakout candidate who should see more innings in 2021, currently showing an above average fastball/slider combination in relief. Any uptick in velocity should make him a legitimate late inning weapon. It’s a relief projection on the surface, but with the whole weekend rotation gone from last year, he could have a chance to start, though he’ll need to refine his changeup considerably. Lastly, Alex Toral‘s name has been thrown around for a while now, and he blasted 24 home runs in 61 games in 2019. Obviously, he’s a power hitter, and he also shows nice patience at the plate that should help him tap it in pro ball. The swing is a bit grooved and gives me some Matt Adams vibes.

North Carolina:

By far, UNC’s best draft prospect is infielder Danny Serretti. The New Jersey native will get plenty of comps to crosstown rival Ethan Murray over at Duke, showing a steady profile rather than a toolsy one. He doesn’t have much power in his 6’1″ frame but did hit 18 doubles as a freshman, showing a line drive bat and a knack for getting on base. He has a chance to stick at shortstop, which will make his bat more attractive, but he didn’t show much impact on the Cape in 2019. Scouts will be looking for more gap power to project more impact in pro ball. We also have the unproven Joe Charles, who has touched 97 with his fastball but is otherwise a one tool player. He’ll need significant refinement in his command and added power to his slurvy breaking balls, which do have potential.

North Carolina State:

The Wolfpack get back Tyler McDonough, who was undrafted in 2020 despite a career .327/.407/.473 line. He’s a college performer with strong plate discipline and some ambush power, a bit of a sleeper given his 5’10” frame. He’ll be 22 before draft day but could quietly hit his way up the ranks. Jose Torres is the Pack’s top draft prospect, a glove-first shortstop who can get to any ball he wants. His bat was considered very light coming out of high school near Baltimore, but he burst onto the scene with a .333/.369/.533 line and three home runs as a freshman in 2020. Draft eligible with a 1999 birthday, he’s very skinny at six feet tall but could grow into some power if he starts generating more leverage with his swing. His plate discipline is very raw at this point, so cleaning it up will be a big priority for 2021, but that glove buys his bat plenty of slack and if he continues the hot hitting he showed in 2020, look out.

Virginia:

Joining Zack Gelof in that strong UVA lineup will be Nic Kent, who just missed the top ten list. Kent has hit everywhere he’s gone, including .335/.426/.450 in Charlottesville and .373/.420/.464 in the Northwoods League. He has a simple, line drive swing that produces hard contact to all fields, and he rarely swings and misses. That hit tool is clearly his best attribute, but if he can a) tap some more power from his 6’2″ frame or b) prove he can stick at shortstop, he has first round aspirations. Andrew Abbott is one of the top returning undrafted arms, and looks to be one of the top relievers in the class. He’s a smaller lefty at 6′, but makes up for it with a bulldog mentality on the mound and a strong fastball/curveball combination. The fastball sits in the low 90’s, nothing crazy, but the curveball is a true weapon and he goes right after hitters. We also have Mike Vasil, who was a top draft prospect coming out of the Boston area high school ranks in 2018, but he has not developed as expected. After hitting 96 in high school, he’s been closer to 90 in college and dips below that number fairly often. His breaking balls haven’t really come along and lack finish to this point, but his changeup his lone above average pitch. Vasil has a great body at 6’4″ and plenty of arm strength, so scouts will be watching closely to see if he can regain that old form. The talent is absolutely there and if he can add a tick or two back to his fastball, he might have some similarities to last year’s Tommy Mace.

Wake Forest:

The Demon Deacons bring a couple of big bats back who were draft eligible last year. Bobby Seymour hit .377/.439/.576 as a sophomore in 2019, but otherwise has been more solid than great, which isn’t quite enough for a first baseman. He’ll look to tap more power from his big 6’4″, 250 pound frame. Meanwhile, Chris Lanzilli has a fairly similar profile, having hit .347/.409/.620 in a big sophomore season in 2019 with a career .314/.394/.594 line and 31 home runs. He’s a big power bat, more so than Seymour, but scouts see him more as a college performer than a pro masher. He’s plenty strong enough to project for above average pop, but he’s not quite as explosive as some of the other power hitters in this class and will be 23 on draft day.