Despite a bonus scandal that cost them Kevin Maitan and a slew of other prospects as well as severe restrictions on international signing, the Braves' farm system remains one of the best in baseball. Their collection of pitching is unmatched anywhere in the game, and it could be the best group of young pitchers in recent memory. The Braves also have a great group of hitters at various positions at their disposal, and the newly-contending major league club is very happy that the majority of their best prospects are closer, not further, from the majors.
Affiliates: AAA Gwinnett Braves, AA Mississippi Braves, High A Florida Fire Frogs, Class A Rome Braves, rookie level Danville Braves, and complex level GCL and DSL Braves
MLB-Ready Pitchers: RHP Mike Soroka, RHP Kyle Wright, RHP Touki Toussaint, LHP Kolby Allard, RHP Bryse Wilson, and LHP Luiz Gohara
This is the core of the Braves' farm system, and honestly, it is probably the most loaded individual section of any of these thirty farm system reviews that I'm writing. The Braves have so much young pitching ready to make the MLB roster that they will be able to include some serious top prospects in trade negotiations in 2019 and not break a sweat. 21 year old Mike Soroka would be the best prospect in this group if he were healthy, though unfortunately that is not the case. Soroka posted a 1.76 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 34/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings between Class A Rome and AAA Gwinnett, as well as a 3.51 ERA and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 major league innings, but he missed time with shoulder trouble and has again been feeling shoulder discomfort during spring training. He's a 6'5" Canadian righty, but rather than throw hard, he lives on his exceptional command and pitchability. Soroka sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, but he is so adept at mixing his pitches and hitting his spots that everything plays up and that he has earned a comparison or two to Greg Maddux. Even without high strikeout totals, Soroka has ace or #2 upside, and if healthy, he could be an impact starter and NL Rookie of the Year candidate in 2019. 23 year old Kyle Wright was the Braves' first round pick (fifth overall) in 2017 out of Vanderbilt, and he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 133/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 138 innings between AA Mississippi and Gwinnett, following that up with a 4.50 ERA and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio over six major league innings. Wright is a 6'4" righty with some of the best stuff in the system, throwing in the mid 90's and adding an exceptional array of secondaries, including two distinct breaking balls in a great curveball and a very good slider which can both miss bats and a changeup that has made a lot of progress. He's inconsistent with his command, though, and when it fails him, he can get hit hard. Throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count will be the key for him if he wants to reach his ace upside, but he still has a very high floor as a #3 or #4 starter who can compete in 2019. 22 year old Touki Toussaint came over from the Diamondbacks for Bronson Arroyo in 2015, and when the Braves traded for Dansby Swanson six months later, that put Arizona's first round picks from 2014 and 2015 both in the Atlanta system. Toussaint, the 16th overall pick of the 2014 draft out of a South Florida high school, rebounded from a rough 2017 (4.53 ERA, 167/64 K/BB) to post a huge season with a 2.38 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 163/53 strikeout to walk ratio in 136.1 innings between Mississippi and Gwinnett, then put up a 4.03 ERA and a 32/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 major league innings. He is a 6'3" righty with an electric arm, one that pumps fastballs consistently in the mid 90's and adds a swing and miss curveball, and his command has steadily improved throughout his pro career. 2018 must have been the tipping point because he finally broke out, and he could be a #2 or #3 starter in the major leagues if he can continue to improve that command. If not, his stuff is good enough to make him a solid back-end starter even without command, and he could also thrive as a fastball/curveball righty in the bullpen. 21 year old Kolby Allard, the Braves' first round pick (14th overall) in 2015 out of a Southern California high school, posted a 2.72 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings at Gwinnett in 2018, then put up a 12.38 ERA and a 3/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight major league innings. He sits right around 90 with his fastball but adds a great curveball and changeup, and his solid command helps everything play up. Still, he has some tweener risk and might end up more of a #4 or #5 starter rather than a mid-rotation guy. Further improving his command could help him reach that #3 upside, but we'll have to see how his extended major league trial goes in 2019. 21 year old Bryse Wilson took just two years to make the majors after being drafted in the fourth round out of a North Carolina high school in 2016, though he is admittedly not quite as refined as Soroka, Wright, Allard, or even Toussaint. The 6'1" righty posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings between High A Florida, Mississippi, and Gwinnett, showing a low 90's fastball, a decent slider, and good enough command to make his stuff play up. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other arms on this list but he should be a very productive #3 or #4 starter in the near future who can eat plenty of innings. Lastly, 22 year old Luiz Gohara was widely considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball after the 2017 season (2.62 ERA, 147/44 K/BB), but his 2018 season was about as trying a season as any player could have. His father died during the offseason and his mother had significant heart surgery which forced him to leave the team briefly in May to visit her in Brazil, and he also dealt with an ankle injury and weight gain, reportedly reaching nearly 315 pounds. He's in better shape now (reportedly down to 270 pounds) but has reportedly dealt with shoulder soreness in spring training, but he will look to erase a 2018 where he posted a 4.81 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 59/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Mississippi and Gwinnett (plus a 5.95 ERA and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio in 19.2 major league innings). Gohara is a 6'3" lefty that has elicited comparisons to C.C. Sabathia due to his body type and velocity, sitting in the upper 90's while adding a nasty slider when in his pre-2018 form. He has been a bit more inconsistent with his command, but hopefully a smoother ride in 2019 will help him improve there and fulfill his potential as a mid-rotation starter, though the shoulder issues are troubling.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Ian Anderson, LHP Joey Wentz, LHP Kyle Muller, RHP Huascar Ynoa, LHP Thomas Burrows, and RHP Patrick Weigel
The Braves' aren't quite as deep in the middle of their system, but that is natural given the way they tend to develop pitching and they still have a great group of arms in the next wave. This group comes heavily from the 2016 draft and also features a lot of left handers (lefty Tucker Davidson just missed this section), which can back up the mostly right-handed current wave (see above). 20 year old Ian Anderson signed an under-slot deal as the third overall pick of the 2016 draft out of high school near Albany, New York, and he had a breakout 2018 by posting a 2.49 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 142/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at High A Florida and AA Mississippi. Anderson has a mid 90's fastball and a solid curveball/changeup set, and with his command improving steadily as he has developed, and further development along his current track could make him a #2 starter. As it stands, Anderson has a very good shot to end up a mid-rotation starter with the possibility for more. 21 year old Joey Wentz was a competitive balance pick (40th overall) in the same 2016 draft as Anderson, coming out of a high school in the Kansas City area. Wentz posted a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 53/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at Florida in 2018, missing time with injuries along the way. The 6'5" lefty has a low 90's fastball when healthy and solid secondary stuff, though his projectable frame hasn't yielded quite as much extra velocity as was hoped when he was drafted and his stuff flattened out at times in 2018. He'll have to get more consistent with, well, everything in 2018 if he doesn't want to get lost in the massive group of starting pitchers in the system, but he maintains high upside and he's certainly worth following in 2019, though he does run reliever risk at this point. 21 year old Kyle Muller, the Braves' second round pick (44th overall) out of a Dallas high school in that same 2016 draft, moved ahead of Wentz this year by posting a 3.03 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 129/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.2 innings at Class A Rome, Florida, and Mississippi. He's a big 6'6" lefty with a low 90's fastball and pretty good secondary stuff, though like Wentz, he has been inconsistent in pro ball. He seemed to right the ship a bit in 2018, and the Braves are hoping for even more of a breakout in 2019 if he can put everything together. Wentz and Muller both have a lot to prove in 2019, retaining high upside as tall lefties with powerful arms. 20 year old Huascar Ynoa, over from the Twins in the Jaime Garcia trade, posted a 4.56 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 131/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 116.1 innings between Rome and Florida in 2018, though he was much better at the lower level (3.63 ERA, 100/42 K/BB) than the upper level (8.03 ERA, 31/12 K/BB). Ynoa is a 6'3" righty with a mid 90's fastball that enabled him to succeed in Class A, though his lack of secondary stuff and control were exposed when he reached High A. He's a raw talent with plenty of upside and arm strength, though he might take a bit longer to reach the majors than the other names on this list and carries a lot more risk. On the bright side, he doesn't turn 21 until May. 24 year old Thomas Burrows was actually the Mariners' fourth round pick in the same 2016 draft as all the above players (minus Ynoa), having been taken eight picks after Bryse Wilson and coming over to Atlanta with Luiz Gohara in the Mallex Smith trade. Burrows, out of the University of Alabama, is strictly a reliever and posted a 2.66 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and an 86/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings between Rome, Florida, and Mississippi in 2018, showing a major league ready fastball/slider combination. He throws from a low, almost sidearm release point, giving him added deception and making his stuff play up. The 6'1" lefty needs to work on his command, which will be the difference between him being a middle reliever or something more. Lastly, 24 year old Patrick Weigel became one of the Braves' top prospects after a huge 2016 season (2.47 ERA, 152/55 K/BB) but struggled when promoted to AAA in 2017 and hurt his elbow, missing the rest of that season and almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery (he did return to throw four shutout innings in complex ball). Weigel has a low to mid 90's fastball and a full array of secondary pitches, though none stand out as true swing-and-miss pitches and he'll have to rely on mixing his pitches to be an effective starter. The surgery caused him to fall behind the hoard of pitching prospects who made strides in 2018, but he has a shot at being a #4 or #5 starter in the near future.
Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Freddy Tarnok, RHP Alan Rangel, RHP Jasseel De La Cruz, RHP Tristan Beck, RHP Trey Riley
While the upper minors boast nothing but headliners and the mid minors carry guys like Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, and Joey Wentz, the low minors don't quite have a headliner, and that's partially due to the failure of the team to sign 2018 eighth overall pick Carter Stewart, a fireballing 6'6" righty with a power curve. This group consists of five pitchers with the potential to break out in 2019, led by 20 year old Freddy Tarnok. A third rounder (80th overall) in 2017 out of high school near Tampa, Tarnok posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and an 83/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at Class A Rome as the Braves worked to transition him from the bullpen to the rotation in 2018. The results weren't great (1.26 ERA, 49/24 K/BB as a reliever vs 6.26 ERA, 34/17 K/BB as a starter), but the 6'3" righty is extremely projectable and already easily sits in the low 90's. His secondary stuff, command, and general durability all need work, but he's also relatively new to pitching and the Braves think they can transform him into a mid-rotation starter. Behind him, 21 year olds Alan Rangel and Jasseel De La Cruz couldn't be more different as pitchers despite being teammates throughout 2018. Rangel posted a 4.09 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings at Rome, while De La Cruz had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 65/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings at the same level. Rangel is a pitchability righty who relies on his strong secondary stuff and his command to get by, while De La Cruz blows his low to mid 90's fastball by hitters with little in the way of secondaries or command. In that sense, De La Cruz is more of a similar pitcher to Tarnok, while Rangel has a little bit of Mike Soroka in him (although obviously not on the same level). Personally, I like Rangel just a bit more due to the success that Soroka had in this system, but De La Cruz definitely has the higher upside and could blow past Rangel with some mechanical adjustments. 22 year old Tristan Beck was a fourth round pick out of Stanford in 2018, tossing 4.2 shutout innings while striking out seven and walking two over 4.1 complex level innings afterwards. Beck figured to be a first round draft pick as a sophomore in 2017, but a back injury forced him out for the entire season and he came back with slightly diminished stuff in 2018, causing him to fall to the fourth round (though he still signed above-slot). Beck is a projectable 6'4" righty with a low 90's fastball, an inconsistent curveball that looked better in 2016 than it did in 2018, and a very good changeup, all of which he commands well. If he can stay healthy and the Braves can get him back to spinning that curveball effectively, he has high upside as a #2 or #3 starter due to his feel for pitching, but he also has a lot of questions to answer for someone who will be 23 in June. Lastly, 20 year old Trey Riley was a fifth round pick out of an Illinois junior college in 2018, then posted an 8.00 ERA, a 2.22 WHIP, and a 13/10 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings at rookie level Danville. The Braves envision Riley as a starter, though he has a ton of work to do if that is to happen. He currently sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a nasty slider, but he struggles to throw strikes, throws with effort, and lacks a changeup at this point. I feel that he is destined for the bullpen in this deep system, where he could sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and use that slider as a true swing and miss pitch regularly. Still, he'll have to answer the command question and learn to throw strikes.
The Hitters: 3B Austin Riley, OF Cristian Pache, UT Travis Demeritte, OF Drew Waters, OF Greyson Jenista, C William Contreras, and 3B CJ Alexander
While the Braves' position player depth isn't nearly as extensive as its pitching depth, they still have a solid group of guys that includes quite a few impact players. 21 year old Austin Riley, a former competitive balance pick (41st overall) out of a Memphis-area high school in 2015, is the best hitter, having slashed .294/.360/.522 with 19 home runs and a 129/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Mississippi, AAA Gwinnett, and complex level rehab. He has plenty of power and also added 30 doubles in 2018, and he could be a consistent 25-30 home run bat in the majors. His plate discipline seemingly could use some work, but he has continued to produce with every promotion and it may not end up hindering him in the majors. Josh Donaldson is the place holder at third base for now, but look for Riley to break in at some point during 2019 before taking over as the full-time starting third baseman in 2020, where he could be an All Star. While Riley has the superior bat, 20 year old Cristian Pache is inarguably the most exciting position-playing prospect in this system. In 2018, the Dominican outfielder slashed .279/.307/.410 with nine home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 97/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Florida and Mississippi, the nine home runs being a very pleasant surprise after he went homerless in 2016 and 2017. However, Pache is really known for his defense, as he might be the best defensive center fielder in the minors with his blazing speed, great range, and terrific arm. It's not often that you get players with that kind of defensive package, as great defenders typically pair a cannon arm with average range or a decent arm with terrific range. Offensively, Pache proved himself against High A pitching in 2018 (.285/.311/.431) and only turned 20 over the offseason, so while he's never expected to be a true impact hitter, he should be able to provide more than enough value at the plate to remain in the lineup and give his defense a chance to shine. Offensively, expect a guy who can get on base at a solid rate, steal plenty of bases, and clear the fences occasionally. 24 year old Travis Demeritte, acquired from the Rangers back in 2016, has flashed high upside for a long time but has never quite put it together. In 2018, he slashed .222/.316/.416 with 17 home runs and a 140/57 strikeout to walk ratio at Mississippi, showing more of the same with big time power and trouble getting to it. Long considered a high-risk, high-reward player, he seems to be plateauing at AA and likely takes on more of a super-utility projection at this point, his solid glove giving him the opportunity to handle both the infield and the outfield. Demeritte could put it together in 2019, but that is looking less likely. I was a big fan of now-20 year old Drew Waters during the 2017 draft, where I saw him as a first round talent and the Braves scooped him up in the second round (41st overall) out of an Atlanta-area high school, and I'm still a big fan today. In 2018, his first full season out of high school, Waters slashed .293/.343/.476 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between Class A Rome and Florida, the promotion to High A being something fairly uncommon for high school bats in their first full pro season. He's a wiry outfielder whose outfield defense is ahead of his offense at this point, as he is a great all-around defender with plenty of range and arm strength, kind of like Pache-lite. However, unlike Pache, I think Waters has tremendous upside at the plate as well, his powerful swing from both sides of the plate looking like one that could produce 20-30 home runs per season once he grows into his frame and learns to find the barrel more consistently. I'd like to see him get more patient at the plate and I think he will. 22 year old Greyson Jenista was a second round pick (49th overall) in 2018 out of Wichita State, and he slashed .265/.328/.395 with four home runs and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games between rookie level Danville, Rome, and Florida in his pro debut. He's 6'4" but has a swing that is more line-drive oriented than power oriented, and I think he will really benefit from time in the Braves system as his swing seems like one that easily add that power to me. Defensively, he's solid in right field with a strong arm and decent range, and scouts have spoken highly of his work ethic. I see him as a potential 20-30 homer bat, much like Riley and Waters, though the mechanical changes that would be required to reach that ceiling come with some risk. 21 year old William Contreras (the younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras) had a breakout year in 2018 and slashed .285/.347/.436 with eleven home runs and an 89/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games between Rome and Florida, putting together a full season for the first time in his career and showing improved power to boot. He's a very capable defender behind the plate, but unlike most catchers with playable defense, he can hit too, and that makes him very valuable. He still has a lot of work to do in proving that his bat can play in the higher levels of the minors and working to become even better behind the plate, but he's certainly one of the better catching prospects in the game. Lastly, 22 year old CJ Alexander was the Braves' 20th round pick in 2018 out of a Florida junior college, though on talent alone he should have been a top ten rounds pick. He's gotten off to a blazing start in pro ball (much like his younger brother, Blaze, in the Diamondbacks organization) by slashing .352/.429/.495 with two home runs and a 42/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games between complex ball, Danville, and Florida. At the State College of Florida, he was better known as a player with big time power who could get a bit too aggressive at the plate, but he flipped the script in pro ball by showing solid plate discipline and great feel for the barrel, finishing with just two home runs in 52 games (plus eight doubles and seven triples). Alexander's ability to consistently barrel the ball up in pro ball and even at High A (.325/.386/.450) bodes well for his chances to break through as one of the team's top hitting prospects. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him a solid third baseman despite his decent glove.
Thursday, February 28, 2019
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Reviewing the Chicago White Sox Farm System
Through trades and player development, the White Sox have built one of the top farm systems in baseball led by some star hitters as well as plenty of pitching depth. Because many of the system's top prospects came via trade, most of the best prospects are closer to the majors, and with the White Sox' window of contention looking to begin around 2020, that's just how they want it. It's really a nice balance they have going and they're not lacking in any demographic except perhaps infielders beyond Nick Madrigal.
Affiliates: AAA Charlotte Knights, AA Birmingham Barons, High A Winston-Salem Dash, Class A Kannapolis Intimidators, rookie level Great Falls Voyagers, and complex level AZL and DSL White Sox
The Headliner: OF Eloy Jimenez
Big systems like this often have multiple headliners, but 22 year old Eloy Jimenez is just so good that he warrants his own section even in this stacked system. Originally signed by the Cubs for $2.8 million in 2013 as arguably the top international prospect in the class, he was sent over to the White Sox (along with, among others, arguably the system's current top pitching prospect in Dylan Cease) for Jose Quintana in 2017, and he has gotten better every year in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .337/.384/.577 with 22 home runs and a 69/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, firmly establishing himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Jimenez's best tool is his light tower power from a 6'4" frame, but unlike most sluggers his age, he rarely lets the ball get by him and lines a ton of singles and doubles as well. This ability to consistently find the barrel will make his already tremendous power play up in the majors, giving him the chance to hit 30 or more home runs per season while posting good on-base percentages. At this point, he doesn't walk all that much, though the rest of his offensive profile more than makes up for that and he should be a middle of the order thumper in the very near future. Defensively, he's not going to be much help in left field, but that doesn't matter because of his bat. He'll likely begin the 2019 season in AAA "working on his defense" (so the White Sox can get another year of team control), but once he's up in the majors around late April, he should be a strong contender in a stacked AL Rookie of the Year race that should also include Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Danny Jansen, Houston's Kyle Tucker, Tampa Bay's Brent Honeywell, and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo, among many others.
High Minors Hitters: C Seby Zavala, C Zack Collins, OF Luis Alexander Basabe, OF Joel Booker, OF Danny Mendick, and 1B Gavin Sheets
The talent level among hitters in the upper minors drops off considerably after Eloy Jimenez, but there is still plenty of talent to go around and the White Sox should have significant reinforcements coming in the next couple of seasons. 25 year old Seby Zavala is an older prospect who just slashed .258/.317/.418 with 13 home runs and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, but he can stick behind the plate and that makes the bat play up. He's not the best defender, but he can handle the catcher's position adequately and has enough power and on-base ability to profile comfortably as a back-up catcher in the near future. Behind him, 24 year old Zack Collins is the team's top catching prospect, and he slashed .234/.382/.404 with 15 home runs and a 158/101 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games with Birmingham. The former Miami Hurricane and 2016 first round pick (tenth overall) has a very interesting profile both offensively and defensively. He has plenty of raw power but struggles to get to it in games due to high strikeout rates, but he also draws so many walks that his game-value might actually lie more in his on-base percentage than his slugging percentage despite hitting just 58 singles in 122 games in 2018 (that's what happens with 50 extra base hits, 101 walks, and 158 strikeouts). Defensively, he's not quite a natural behind the plate, but he reportedly has worked extremely hard to be where he is and the White Sox are confident he can handle the position at the highest level. Together, that makes for a wide range of possibilities even after a full season in AA, with his ceiling being that of a power hitting catcher who can pop 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and playable defense. However, he'll have to make more contact to make that a reality. 22 year old Luis Alexander Basabe, one of the less well-known players the White Sox received in the package for Chris Sale, slashed .258/.354/.445 with 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 140/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham. However, he broke his hand in spring training and will have to miss the beginning of the 2019 season. Basabe is an outfielder who is more well known for his glove than his bat, as he can stick in center field and play well there, taking pressure off his bat. He has some power and has shown the ability to draw walks and get on base, but at this point he strikes out too much to confidently project him as an every day player, and the broken hand won't help him in his quest to conquer that. As I said though, the glove does buy the bat some slack, so he still has a chance to earn a starting spot down the road with a few tweaks in his approach. 25 year olds Joel Booker and Danny Mendick will compete for bench spots in the near future, with Booker holding a fourth outfielder projection and Mendick looking to be a utility infielder. Booker slashed .279/.360/.399 with seven home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 119/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, performing better before the promotion (.297/.389/.469) but still holding his own afterwards (.266/.338/.348). His speed and contact ability will help him up the ladder, but ultimately the bat-glove combination is a little light to ever envision him starting. Mendick, meanwhile, slashed .247/.340/.395 with 14 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Birmingham. To me, he's the slightly better prospect with better plate discipline, a bit more power, and the ability to stick in the infield. He's not the rangiest shortstop but could probably handle a spot start or two at a time there, overall bringing a utility infield projection with an average bat and average glove. Lastly, 22 year old Gavin Sheets had an interesting first full pro season after being drafted in the second round (49th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017. In 2018, he slashed .293/.368/.407 with six home runs and an 81/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Winston-Salem (just down the street from where he played college ball), handling High A pitching well just a year after he was drafted. However, the 6'4", 230 pound slugger's power did not quite show up with wood bats like it did with metal bats in college (he blasted 21 home runs in 63 games in his junior season), and as a first baseman, that's raises questions. His bat is supposed to carry him if he wants to start in the major leagues, and while it's nice that he makes plenty of contact and controls the strike zone well, you want more out of a 6'4" first baseman. It will be interesting to see if he can add power in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Luis Robert, OF Blake Rutherford, OF Luis Gonzalez, OF Micker Adolfo, SS Nick Madrigal, OF Steele Walker, and 3B Jake Burger
Lower down, the White Sox are stacked with outfielders and should have no trouble building their outfields down the line. The best prospect is 21 year old Luis Robert, who signed for an incredible $26 million in 2017 out of Cuba but who has struggled to stay healthy. In 2018, Robert slashed .269/.333/.360 with no home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games between Class A Kannapolis, High A Winston-Salem, and complex level rehab, missing a lot of time with a thumb injury. Despite going homerless in 2018, Robert generates plenty of raw power from a smooth right handed swing and a 6'3" frame, and he did slash .324/.367/.432 with a pair of home runs and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona Fall League. Once he gets healthy, he should have no trouble getting to his power consistently, with the upside as a top or middle of the order hitter. Defensively, he plays a solid center field and would be equally valuable in right, and his plus speed helps him steal plenty of bases as well as provide that great defense. The biggest question marks for Robert just come with proving his immense talent on the diamond, as the injuries have kept him from getting consistent at bats. 21 year old Blake Rutherford was acquired from the Yankees in the big Todd Frazier/David Robertson trade of 2017, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.345/.436 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at Winston-Salem. At 6'3", Rutherford looks like a power hitter, but he has been more of a line drive hitter in pro ball and instead lines extra base hits around the field. That ability to make contact and find the barrel leaves the White Sox hoping he can translate that gap power into over the fence power, as he's just average in the outfield and will need his bat to carry him. He still carries high upside and could be a breakout candidate for 2019, during which he'll turn 22 and likely spend most of his time at AA, but for now he looks like a decent regular who could hold down a starting spot for a little bit or end up a strong fourth outfielder. 23 year old Luis Gonzalez, unrelated to former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez (his son Jacob is in the Giants' organization), was a third round pick (87th overall) out of New Mexico in 2017 and slashed .307/.368/.498 with 14 home runs and a 103/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, not losing any production after his promotion. He has a ton of gap power and plenty of feel for the barrel, which enabled him to rack up 59 extra base hits in 2018 (including 40 doubles) and leaves the White Sox confident he'll continue to hit as he moves up the ladder. He was extremely patient in college as well as in his pro debut in 2017, but he drew fewer walks in 2018 and that will be something to watch. He plays a very solid center field, and at this point he carries a similar projection to Rutherford as a potential regular who could be a very strong fourth outfielder, albeit with less uncertainty in the projection (higher floor, lower ceiling/less breakout potential). 22 year old Micker Adolfo followed up his breakout 2017 (.264/.331/.453) with another solid season in 2018, slashing .282/.369/.464 with eleven home runs and a 92/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, though Tommy John surgery ended his season in July. He has plenty of power at the plate but doesn't always get to it due to a high strikeout rate, though the White Sox hope that more consistent time on the field will help him on that front (like Robert, he has missed a lot of time to injuries). He's not all that fast but he has a cannon arm, making him a prototypical right fielder and one whose bat doesn't necessarily have to carry all of the weight. Adolfo could end up being a 20-25 homer bat down the line, but we'll have to see how he fares with more consistent health and playing time in the coming seasons. 21 year old Nick Madrigal may be listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, but his fantastic hit tool got him drafted fourth overall out of Oregon State as he and the Beavers went on to win the College World Series in 2018. He struck out just seven times in 42 games as a junior, then slashed .303/.353/.348 with eight stolen bases and a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball, Kannapolis, and Winston-Salem for a total of 12 strikeouts in 85 games. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in all of minor league baseball, making it nearly impossible to get the ball by him and giving him plenty of opportunities to use his plus speed to get on base. Though he'll never be mistaken for a power hitter, Madrigal isn't completely punchless at the plate and could hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors to go along with plenty of doubles and triples, and he has true top of the order potential. Defensively, he's a natural at second base but could be able to stick as a shortstop if he can show enough arm strength, either way providing plenty of value on defense. Expect to see Madrigal up in the majors soon. The White Sox took 22 year old Steele Walker in the second round (46th overall) out of Oklahoma in the same 2018 draft, though he slashed just .209/.271/.342 with five home runs and a 37/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between complex ball, rookie level Great Falls, and Kannapolis in his pro debut. Walker has a natural feel for the barrel and in college was able to make the whole greater than the sum of his parts, using his gritty mindset and high baseball IQ in his favor. That didn't translate in those first 44 games, so we'll have to see how he comes out in 2019 after plenty more pro coaching. Overall, it looks like a fourth outfield projection as he's nothing special on defense, but because of his reportedly strong work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Burger missed the 2018 season with an achilles injury but is a good prospect to watch after having been drafted in the first round (eleventh overall) out of Missouri State in 2017, especially considering the White Sox' lack of infield depth. He's a power hitter with solid feel for the barrel as well, making him a good candidate to hit at the major league level. He's only so-so at third base but works hard on his defense and has a shot to stick there (though the achilles injury doesn't help), and a good season in 2019 could put him back on the radar as a potential middle of the order hitter.
Starting Pitchers: RHP Michael Kopech, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Kodi Medeiros, LHP Bernardo Flores, RHP A.J. Puckett, and RHP Jonathan Stiever
The White Sox have a lot of pitching depth, and because so many of their top pitching prospects are actually relievers, I'm splitting them along that line. Interestingly, most of their best starting pitching prospects actually came via trade, and they have done very well in that regard. We all know 22 year old Michael Kopech, the 6'3" right hander who posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 170/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings at AAA Charlotte before posting a 5.02 ERA and a 15/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings in the majors. Acquired from Boston in the Chris Sale trade, Kopech unfortunately blew out his elbow in September and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, likely knocking him out for all of 2019. When healthy, the East Texan is most well known for his upper 90's, moving fastball that he can simply blow by even the best hitters. He also adds a great slider that misses a ton of bats, making him one of the toughest pitchers to face in minor league baseball. On the flip side, though, he struggles with his command and gets hit when he falls behind in the count or leaves his fastball over the plate, because as we all know, pro hitters can hit 100 MPH fastballs if they're middle-middle. The Tommy John surgery is obviously a huge setback that will make it all the more difficult for him to improve that command, but if he can, he has #2 starter or even possibly ace upside. We'll just have to wait until 2020. 23 year old Dylan Cease, over from the Cubs with Eloy Jimenez in the Jose Quintana trade, had a fantastic season in 2018 by going 12-2 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 160/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings between High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. The 6'2" righty is actually a fairly similar prospect to Kopech, just not as extreme. He comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds an excellent curveball that, like Kopech's slider, misses a ton of bats. Also like Kopech, Cease struggles with command, though he is steadily coming along in that regard and the White Sox hope he can be average by the time he reaches the majors. Cease has #2 starter upside with a good shot at being at least a #3, and if all goes according to plan, he should make for a very good one-two punch with Kopech in the 2020's. 24 year old Dane Dunning, who came over from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade, posted a 2.71 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 100/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, proving to be a different kind of prospect than Kopech and Cease. He's a 6'4" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, though he commands everything much better than those guys. His stuff also plays up due to the deception in his funky delivery, though on the flip side he did miss time with elbow issues in 2018. If he can stay healthy, he has mid rotation upside, and the fact that he tossed 144 innings in 2017 does ease the durability questions. 22 year old Kodi Medeiros was acquired from the Brewers for Joakim Soria this past July, and he posted a 3.60 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 141/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings in AA. The former first round pick (12th overall out of a Hawaii high school in 2014) sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great slider, though his control comes and goes because his cross-fire delivery is difficult to keep in sync. When he has everything going, though, that deception makes his pitches play up and helps him miss plenty of bats, and he has continued to work hard to get more consistent. The 6'2" lefty looks like a future #3 or #4 starter if everything breaks right, though the pitching depth in this system could end up forcing him to the bullpen, where I get the feeling he could be very, very good. 23 year old Bernardo Flores is an under the radar arm who posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham this year, and unlike the four names above him on this list, he was actually drafted by the White Sox (seventh round in 2016 out of Southern California). He typically sits in the low 90's with his fastball (though he has been as high as 97 in the past) with so-so breaking balls, adding a solid changeup and using his command to make everything play up. As a lefty without great stuff, he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter but could sneak up on some people because of his durability and feel for pitching. 23 year old A.J. Puckett came over from the Royals for Melky Cabrera in July and posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings between the two High A affiliates. He throws in the low 90's and like Flores, adds a solid changeup despite a mediocre breaking ball, though his command is just a bit behind Flores' and he looks like a #5 starter or solid long reliever right now. Lastly, 21 year old Jonathan Stiever was a fifth round pick out of Indiana in 2018, then posted a 4.18 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings at rookie level Great Falls. Stiever is a 6'2" righty with a solid breaking ball and overall fairly advanced command, which is typical for those day two power-five college arms. He finished the season on a run of ten straight shutout innings (including the Pioneer League playoffs) and is a solid mid to back of the rotation arm to follow down lower in the minors.
Relievers: RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Zack Burdi, RHP Jose Ruiz, RHP Alec Hansen, RHP Tyler Johnson, and RHP Lincoln Henzman
For all the talk about the White Sox' headlining prospects like Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Cease, the White Sox are actually really deep in relievers and should have a very solid homegrown bullpen in the future. 23 year old Ian Hamilton had a breakout year in 2018 and posted a 1.74 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 62/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings at AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, then put up a 4.50 ERA and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings. He's a fastball-slider righty who sits in the mid 90's and misses his fair share of bats, though the slider isn't so devastating that he'll be putting up ridiculous strikeout numbers in the majors or anything. He profiles best as a solid seventh or eighth inning guy and has a good shot at the Opening Day roster. 23 year old Zack Burdi, a product of the same 2016 draft (26th overall out of Louisville), has the higher ceiling as a prospect but missed almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, returning in August to post a 2.84 ERA and a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.1 innings in complex ball rehab. He sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a hard slider and a good changeup, giving him multiple weapons to help that velocity play up even further. Had he not gotten hurt, he may have been a September call-up in 2017, and assuming he comes out firing and healthy in spring training, he also has a shot at the Opening Day roster. A healthy Burdi will likely be an impact reliever for the White Sox, perhaps even a closer. 24 year old Jose Ruiz is yet another fastball/slider righty, checking in with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 77/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham followed by a 4.15 ERA and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 4.1 major league innings. Sitting in the mid 90's and adding a good slider, he's not quite the prospect that Hamilton and Burdi are, but he should contribute as a solid middle reliever in the near future. 24 year old Alec Hansen has had an absolute roller coaster of a career, looking like he had a shot at being the first overall pick in the 2016 draft before a poor junior season at Oklahoma dropped him to the second round, where the White Sox picked him up with the 49th overall pick. He then dominated the minors in 2016 (1.32 ERA, 81/20 K/BB) and 2017 (2.80 ERA, 191/51 K/BB), establishing himself as a potential impact starter, but it all fell apart again in 2018 after he missed time with forearm soreness and posted a 6.31 ERA, a 2.01 WHIP, and a 55/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham upon returning. Hansen has fantastic stuff with a mid 90's fastball, a couple of solid breaking balls, and a useable changeup from a 6'7" frame, but his command ranges anywhere from average on his best days to downright un-playable on his worst. Over a three start stretch from July 18th to July 29th, he walked 22 batters in 10.1 innings and was subsequently demoted from AA to High A, where he wasn't much better. Now 24, Hansen is at a bit of a crossroads and may have to be bumped from the rotation to the bullpen, where he could likely sit in the upper 90's and strike out hitters en masse if he can maintain any semblance of command. 23 year old Tyler Johnson, like Ian Hamilton, had a breakout season in 2018 and posted a 1.40 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an 89/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Class A Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, using his mid 90's fastball and good slider to miss plenty of bats against A ball hitters. Because he was facing mostly younger competition in 2018, we'll have to see how he fares in the upper minors in 2019, but he could be another seventh or eighth inning arm in the Chicago bullpen in the near future. Lastly, 23 year old Lincoln Henzman is a starter for now, having posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 80/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.1 innings at Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, like Johnson performing very well against mostly younger competition. Giving the starting pitching depth in this system and Henzman's lack of a reliable breaking ball, he may be forced to the bullpen down the road, currently working with a ground ball-inducing low to mid 90's fastball, a solid changeup, and a decent cutter, all of which he controls pretty well. How he fares against AA hitters and whether he proves he can handle a starter's workload in 2019 will likely determine whether he ends up a back-end starter or a solid middle reliever in the long run.
Affiliates: AAA Charlotte Knights, AA Birmingham Barons, High A Winston-Salem Dash, Class A Kannapolis Intimidators, rookie level Great Falls Voyagers, and complex level AZL and DSL White Sox
The Headliner: OF Eloy Jimenez
Big systems like this often have multiple headliners, but 22 year old Eloy Jimenez is just so good that he warrants his own section even in this stacked system. Originally signed by the Cubs for $2.8 million in 2013 as arguably the top international prospect in the class, he was sent over to the White Sox (along with, among others, arguably the system's current top pitching prospect in Dylan Cease) for Jose Quintana in 2017, and he has gotten better every year in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .337/.384/.577 with 22 home runs and a 69/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, firmly establishing himself as one of the top prospects in the game. Jimenez's best tool is his light tower power from a 6'4" frame, but unlike most sluggers his age, he rarely lets the ball get by him and lines a ton of singles and doubles as well. This ability to consistently find the barrel will make his already tremendous power play up in the majors, giving him the chance to hit 30 or more home runs per season while posting good on-base percentages. At this point, he doesn't walk all that much, though the rest of his offensive profile more than makes up for that and he should be a middle of the order thumper in the very near future. Defensively, he's not going to be much help in left field, but that doesn't matter because of his bat. He'll likely begin the 2019 season in AAA "working on his defense" (so the White Sox can get another year of team control), but once he's up in the majors around late April, he should be a strong contender in a stacked AL Rookie of the Year race that should also include Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Danny Jansen, Houston's Kyle Tucker, Tampa Bay's Brent Honeywell, and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo, among many others.
High Minors Hitters: C Seby Zavala, C Zack Collins, OF Luis Alexander Basabe, OF Joel Booker, OF Danny Mendick, and 1B Gavin Sheets
The talent level among hitters in the upper minors drops off considerably after Eloy Jimenez, but there is still plenty of talent to go around and the White Sox should have significant reinforcements coming in the next couple of seasons. 25 year old Seby Zavala is an older prospect who just slashed .258/.317/.418 with 13 home runs and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games between AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, but he can stick behind the plate and that makes the bat play up. He's not the best defender, but he can handle the catcher's position adequately and has enough power and on-base ability to profile comfortably as a back-up catcher in the near future. Behind him, 24 year old Zack Collins is the team's top catching prospect, and he slashed .234/.382/.404 with 15 home runs and a 158/101 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games with Birmingham. The former Miami Hurricane and 2016 first round pick (tenth overall) has a very interesting profile both offensively and defensively. He has plenty of raw power but struggles to get to it in games due to high strikeout rates, but he also draws so many walks that his game-value might actually lie more in his on-base percentage than his slugging percentage despite hitting just 58 singles in 122 games in 2018 (that's what happens with 50 extra base hits, 101 walks, and 158 strikeouts). Defensively, he's not quite a natural behind the plate, but he reportedly has worked extremely hard to be where he is and the White Sox are confident he can handle the position at the highest level. Together, that makes for a wide range of possibilities even after a full season in AA, with his ceiling being that of a power hitting catcher who can pop 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and playable defense. However, he'll have to make more contact to make that a reality. 22 year old Luis Alexander Basabe, one of the less well-known players the White Sox received in the package for Chris Sale, slashed .258/.354/.445 with 15 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 140/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham. However, he broke his hand in spring training and will have to miss the beginning of the 2019 season. Basabe is an outfielder who is more well known for his glove than his bat, as he can stick in center field and play well there, taking pressure off his bat. He has some power and has shown the ability to draw walks and get on base, but at this point he strikes out too much to confidently project him as an every day player, and the broken hand won't help him in his quest to conquer that. As I said though, the glove does buy the bat some slack, so he still has a chance to earn a starting spot down the road with a few tweaks in his approach. 25 year olds Joel Booker and Danny Mendick will compete for bench spots in the near future, with Booker holding a fourth outfielder projection and Mendick looking to be a utility infielder. Booker slashed .279/.360/.399 with seven home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 119/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, performing better before the promotion (.297/.389/.469) but still holding his own afterwards (.266/.338/.348). His speed and contact ability will help him up the ladder, but ultimately the bat-glove combination is a little light to ever envision him starting. Mendick, meanwhile, slashed .247/.340/.395 with 14 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Birmingham. To me, he's the slightly better prospect with better plate discipline, a bit more power, and the ability to stick in the infield. He's not the rangiest shortstop but could probably handle a spot start or two at a time there, overall bringing a utility infield projection with an average bat and average glove. Lastly, 22 year old Gavin Sheets had an interesting first full pro season after being drafted in the second round (49th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017. In 2018, he slashed .293/.368/.407 with six home runs and an 81/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Winston-Salem (just down the street from where he played college ball), handling High A pitching well just a year after he was drafted. However, the 6'4", 230 pound slugger's power did not quite show up with wood bats like it did with metal bats in college (he blasted 21 home runs in 63 games in his junior season), and as a first baseman, that's raises questions. His bat is supposed to carry him if he wants to start in the major leagues, and while it's nice that he makes plenty of contact and controls the strike zone well, you want more out of a 6'4" first baseman. It will be interesting to see if he can add power in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Luis Robert, OF Blake Rutherford, OF Luis Gonzalez, OF Micker Adolfo, SS Nick Madrigal, OF Steele Walker, and 3B Jake Burger
Lower down, the White Sox are stacked with outfielders and should have no trouble building their outfields down the line. The best prospect is 21 year old Luis Robert, who signed for an incredible $26 million in 2017 out of Cuba but who has struggled to stay healthy. In 2018, Robert slashed .269/.333/.360 with no home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games between Class A Kannapolis, High A Winston-Salem, and complex level rehab, missing a lot of time with a thumb injury. Despite going homerless in 2018, Robert generates plenty of raw power from a smooth right handed swing and a 6'3" frame, and he did slash .324/.367/.432 with a pair of home runs and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona Fall League. Once he gets healthy, he should have no trouble getting to his power consistently, with the upside as a top or middle of the order hitter. Defensively, he plays a solid center field and would be equally valuable in right, and his plus speed helps him steal plenty of bases as well as provide that great defense. The biggest question marks for Robert just come with proving his immense talent on the diamond, as the injuries have kept him from getting consistent at bats. 21 year old Blake Rutherford was acquired from the Yankees in the big Todd Frazier/David Robertson trade of 2017, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.345/.436 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 90/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at Winston-Salem. At 6'3", Rutherford looks like a power hitter, but he has been more of a line drive hitter in pro ball and instead lines extra base hits around the field. That ability to make contact and find the barrel leaves the White Sox hoping he can translate that gap power into over the fence power, as he's just average in the outfield and will need his bat to carry him. He still carries high upside and could be a breakout candidate for 2019, during which he'll turn 22 and likely spend most of his time at AA, but for now he looks like a decent regular who could hold down a starting spot for a little bit or end up a strong fourth outfielder. 23 year old Luis Gonzalez, unrelated to former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez (his son Jacob is in the Giants' organization), was a third round pick (87th overall) out of New Mexico in 2017 and slashed .307/.368/.498 with 14 home runs and a 103/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, not losing any production after his promotion. He has a ton of gap power and plenty of feel for the barrel, which enabled him to rack up 59 extra base hits in 2018 (including 40 doubles) and leaves the White Sox confident he'll continue to hit as he moves up the ladder. He was extremely patient in college as well as in his pro debut in 2017, but he drew fewer walks in 2018 and that will be something to watch. He plays a very solid center field, and at this point he carries a similar projection to Rutherford as a potential regular who could be a very strong fourth outfielder, albeit with less uncertainty in the projection (higher floor, lower ceiling/less breakout potential). 22 year old Micker Adolfo followed up his breakout 2017 (.264/.331/.453) with another solid season in 2018, slashing .282/.369/.464 with eleven home runs and a 92/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, though Tommy John surgery ended his season in July. He has plenty of power at the plate but doesn't always get to it due to a high strikeout rate, though the White Sox hope that more consistent time on the field will help him on that front (like Robert, he has missed a lot of time to injuries). He's not all that fast but he has a cannon arm, making him a prototypical right fielder and one whose bat doesn't necessarily have to carry all of the weight. Adolfo could end up being a 20-25 homer bat down the line, but we'll have to see how he fares with more consistent health and playing time in the coming seasons. 21 year old Nick Madrigal may be listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, but his fantastic hit tool got him drafted fourth overall out of Oregon State as he and the Beavers went on to win the College World Series in 2018. He struck out just seven times in 42 games as a junior, then slashed .303/.353/.348 with eight stolen bases and a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball, Kannapolis, and Winston-Salem for a total of 12 strikeouts in 85 games. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in all of minor league baseball, making it nearly impossible to get the ball by him and giving him plenty of opportunities to use his plus speed to get on base. Though he'll never be mistaken for a power hitter, Madrigal isn't completely punchless at the plate and could hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors to go along with plenty of doubles and triples, and he has true top of the order potential. Defensively, he's a natural at second base but could be able to stick as a shortstop if he can show enough arm strength, either way providing plenty of value on defense. Expect to see Madrigal up in the majors soon. The White Sox took 22 year old Steele Walker in the second round (46th overall) out of Oklahoma in the same 2018 draft, though he slashed just .209/.271/.342 with five home runs and a 37/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between complex ball, rookie level Great Falls, and Kannapolis in his pro debut. Walker has a natural feel for the barrel and in college was able to make the whole greater than the sum of his parts, using his gritty mindset and high baseball IQ in his favor. That didn't translate in those first 44 games, so we'll have to see how he comes out in 2019 after plenty more pro coaching. Overall, it looks like a fourth outfield projection as he's nothing special on defense, but because of his reportedly strong work ethic, I wouldn't bet against him. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Burger missed the 2018 season with an achilles injury but is a good prospect to watch after having been drafted in the first round (eleventh overall) out of Missouri State in 2017, especially considering the White Sox' lack of infield depth. He's a power hitter with solid feel for the barrel as well, making him a good candidate to hit at the major league level. He's only so-so at third base but works hard on his defense and has a shot to stick there (though the achilles injury doesn't help), and a good season in 2019 could put him back on the radar as a potential middle of the order hitter.
Starting Pitchers: RHP Michael Kopech, RHP Dylan Cease, RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Kodi Medeiros, LHP Bernardo Flores, RHP A.J. Puckett, and RHP Jonathan Stiever
The White Sox have a lot of pitching depth, and because so many of their top pitching prospects are actually relievers, I'm splitting them along that line. Interestingly, most of their best starting pitching prospects actually came via trade, and they have done very well in that regard. We all know 22 year old Michael Kopech, the 6'3" right hander who posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 170/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings at AAA Charlotte before posting a 5.02 ERA and a 15/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings in the majors. Acquired from Boston in the Chris Sale trade, Kopech unfortunately blew out his elbow in September and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, likely knocking him out for all of 2019. When healthy, the East Texan is most well known for his upper 90's, moving fastball that he can simply blow by even the best hitters. He also adds a great slider that misses a ton of bats, making him one of the toughest pitchers to face in minor league baseball. On the flip side, though, he struggles with his command and gets hit when he falls behind in the count or leaves his fastball over the plate, because as we all know, pro hitters can hit 100 MPH fastballs if they're middle-middle. The Tommy John surgery is obviously a huge setback that will make it all the more difficult for him to improve that command, but if he can, he has #2 starter or even possibly ace upside. We'll just have to wait until 2020. 23 year old Dylan Cease, over from the Cubs with Eloy Jimenez in the Jose Quintana trade, had a fantastic season in 2018 by going 12-2 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 160/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings between High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. The 6'2" righty is actually a fairly similar prospect to Kopech, just not as extreme. He comfortably sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds an excellent curveball that, like Kopech's slider, misses a ton of bats. Also like Kopech, Cease struggles with command, though he is steadily coming along in that regard and the White Sox hope he can be average by the time he reaches the majors. Cease has #2 starter upside with a good shot at being at least a #3, and if all goes according to plan, he should make for a very good one-two punch with Kopech in the 2020's. 24 year old Dane Dunning, who came over from the Nationals in the Adam Eaton trade, posted a 2.71 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 100/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings between Winston-Salem and Birmingham, proving to be a different kind of prospect than Kopech and Cease. He's a 6'4" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and changeup, though he commands everything much better than those guys. His stuff also plays up due to the deception in his funky delivery, though on the flip side he did miss time with elbow issues in 2018. If he can stay healthy, he has mid rotation upside, and the fact that he tossed 144 innings in 2017 does ease the durability questions. 22 year old Kodi Medeiros was acquired from the Brewers for Joakim Soria this past July, and he posted a 3.60 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 141/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings in AA. The former first round pick (12th overall out of a Hawaii high school in 2014) sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great slider, though his control comes and goes because his cross-fire delivery is difficult to keep in sync. When he has everything going, though, that deception makes his pitches play up and helps him miss plenty of bats, and he has continued to work hard to get more consistent. The 6'2" lefty looks like a future #3 or #4 starter if everything breaks right, though the pitching depth in this system could end up forcing him to the bullpen, where I get the feeling he could be very, very good. 23 year old Bernardo Flores is an under the radar arm who posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham this year, and unlike the four names above him on this list, he was actually drafted by the White Sox (seventh round in 2016 out of Southern California). He typically sits in the low 90's with his fastball (though he has been as high as 97 in the past) with so-so breaking balls, adding a solid changeup and using his command to make everything play up. As a lefty without great stuff, he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter but could sneak up on some people because of his durability and feel for pitching. 23 year old A.J. Puckett came over from the Royals for Melky Cabrera in July and posted a 3.98 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.2 innings between the two High A affiliates. He throws in the low 90's and like Flores, adds a solid changeup despite a mediocre breaking ball, though his command is just a bit behind Flores' and he looks like a #5 starter or solid long reliever right now. Lastly, 21 year old Jonathan Stiever was a fifth round pick out of Indiana in 2018, then posted a 4.18 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 innings at rookie level Great Falls. Stiever is a 6'2" righty with a solid breaking ball and overall fairly advanced command, which is typical for those day two power-five college arms. He finished the season on a run of ten straight shutout innings (including the Pioneer League playoffs) and is a solid mid to back of the rotation arm to follow down lower in the minors.
Relievers: RHP Ian Hamilton, RHP Zack Burdi, RHP Jose Ruiz, RHP Alec Hansen, RHP Tyler Johnson, and RHP Lincoln Henzman
For all the talk about the White Sox' headlining prospects like Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, and Dylan Cease, the White Sox are actually really deep in relievers and should have a very solid homegrown bullpen in the future. 23 year old Ian Hamilton had a breakout year in 2018 and posted a 1.74 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 62/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings at AA Birmingham and AAA Charlotte, then put up a 4.50 ERA and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio in eight major league innings. He's a fastball-slider righty who sits in the mid 90's and misses his fair share of bats, though the slider isn't so devastating that he'll be putting up ridiculous strikeout numbers in the majors or anything. He profiles best as a solid seventh or eighth inning guy and has a good shot at the Opening Day roster. 23 year old Zack Burdi, a product of the same 2016 draft (26th overall out of Louisville), has the higher ceiling as a prospect but missed almost all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery, returning in August to post a 2.84 ERA and a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.1 innings in complex ball rehab. He sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a hard slider and a good changeup, giving him multiple weapons to help that velocity play up even further. Had he not gotten hurt, he may have been a September call-up in 2017, and assuming he comes out firing and healthy in spring training, he also has a shot at the Opening Day roster. A healthy Burdi will likely be an impact reliever for the White Sox, perhaps even a closer. 24 year old Jose Ruiz is yet another fastball/slider righty, checking in with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 77/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at High A Winston-Salem and Birmingham followed by a 4.15 ERA and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 4.1 major league innings. Sitting in the mid 90's and adding a good slider, he's not quite the prospect that Hamilton and Burdi are, but he should contribute as a solid middle reliever in the near future. 24 year old Alec Hansen has had an absolute roller coaster of a career, looking like he had a shot at being the first overall pick in the 2016 draft before a poor junior season at Oklahoma dropped him to the second round, where the White Sox picked him up with the 49th overall pick. He then dominated the minors in 2016 (1.32 ERA, 81/20 K/BB) and 2017 (2.80 ERA, 191/51 K/BB), establishing himself as a potential impact starter, but it all fell apart again in 2018 after he missed time with forearm soreness and posted a 6.31 ERA, a 2.01 WHIP, and a 55/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at Winston-Salem and Birmingham upon returning. Hansen has fantastic stuff with a mid 90's fastball, a couple of solid breaking balls, and a useable changeup from a 6'7" frame, but his command ranges anywhere from average on his best days to downright un-playable on his worst. Over a three start stretch from July 18th to July 29th, he walked 22 batters in 10.1 innings and was subsequently demoted from AA to High A, where he wasn't much better. Now 24, Hansen is at a bit of a crossroads and may have to be bumped from the rotation to the bullpen, where he could likely sit in the upper 90's and strike out hitters en masse if he can maintain any semblance of command. 23 year old Tyler Johnson, like Ian Hamilton, had a breakout season in 2018 and posted a 1.40 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and an 89/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 innings at Class A Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, using his mid 90's fastball and good slider to miss plenty of bats against A ball hitters. Because he was facing mostly younger competition in 2018, we'll have to see how he fares in the upper minors in 2019, but he could be another seventh or eighth inning arm in the Chicago bullpen in the near future. Lastly, 23 year old Lincoln Henzman is a starter for now, having posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 80/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 107.1 innings at Kannapolis and Winston-Salem, like Johnson performing very well against mostly younger competition. Giving the starting pitching depth in this system and Henzman's lack of a reliable breaking ball, he may be forced to the bullpen down the road, currently working with a ground ball-inducing low to mid 90's fastball, a solid changeup, and a decent cutter, all of which he controls pretty well. How he fares against AA hitters and whether he proves he can handle a starter's workload in 2019 will likely determine whether he ends up a back-end starter or a solid middle reliever in the long run.
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Reviewing the Tampa Bay Rays Farm System
The Rays usually have a deep farm system, often led by a deep group of projectable arms with a few solid hitters thrown in here and there. However, while the Rays still maintain a solid core of pitchers, the story this year is the position player group, with tons of potential impact bats from all over the diamond. With the lost season from Brent Honeywell came breakouts from guys like Wander Franco and Vidal Brujan, and because many of the system's star prospects are lower in the minors, this could be an even better system come next year. The Rays have something really exciting brewing down on the farm.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, Class A Bowling Green Hot Rods, Short Season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
High Minors Bats: 2B Brandon Lowe, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, OF Jesus Sanchez, 2B Nick Solak, and SS Lucius Fox
We'll start by getting the more advanced hitters out of the way, even though most of the excitement lies lower in the system. 24 year old Brandon Lowe, the first of Tampa Bay's three star Lowes to make the majors, slashed .297/.391/.558 with 22 home runs and a 102/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham in 2018 before putting up a .233/.324/.450 line with six home runs in his 43 game major league debut. Because he finished with 129 at bats, he just barely retains prospect status for 2019, but he has a very good shot at grabbing playing time quickly in Tampa. He's naturally a second baseman but has also seen time in the outifeld, giving him some positional flexibility that makes his bat more valuable. He's not quite an impact hitter, but Lowe can post solid on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, meaning he should fit right into the Rays' long term plans and be a steady bat and glove in their lineup for at least the next few seasons. 23 year old Nathaniel Lowe, not related to Brandon despite also having been born in Virginia's Hampton Roads area (Brandon grew up in Suffolk, Nathaniel moved to the Atlanta area), had a huge breakout in 2018 by slashing .330/.416/.568 with 27 home runs and a 90/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Charlotte, Montgomery, and Durham in 2018. In just one season, Lowe went from average hitting first baseman who was more or less organizational depth to a legitimate impact bat who slashed .356/.432/.588 in High A, .340/.444/.606 in AA, and .260/.327/.460 in AAA. He still doesn't provide much value on defense, but he has shown above average power as well as the ability to get to it consistently in the high minors, and he could crack the Rays starting lineup at some point early in 2019. Long term, he's likely a platoon bat just because the offensive bar is so high for first basemen, but expect him to get some big hits in the near future as a guy who, at best, could hit 20-25 home runs per season with pretty decent on-base percentages. 21 year old Jesus Sanchez wasn't as highly regarded as some of the others stars in 2014 international free agent class, but he has done nothing but hit since signing and slashed .282/.324/.433 with eleven home runs and a 92/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Charlotte and Montgomery in 2018. Sanchez has no standout tool but does everything well, showing some power, the ability to find the barrel and get on base, and good outfield defense, all against mostly older competition. He still needs a little more time for his bat to acclimate to the upper minors, but Sanchez has the ability to be a net-positive on both sides of the ball, and if he can improve his plate discipline just a little bit, he could be an impact hitter with 15-20 home run power and solid on-base percentages in the long run. 24 year old Nick Solak, who came over from the Yankees in last offseason's big three-team trade that included Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, slashed .282/.384/.450 with 19 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 112/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Montgomery in his first season in the Rays' system. The Louisville product is definitely more well known for his bat, as he makes consistent hard contact and draws plenty of walks, which together have helped him turn in a gaudy .296/.390/.445 line with 34 home runs in three minor league seasons. His ability to find the barrel helps his power play up, and what was once a utility projection now has some room for a future in the starting lineup. He's mediocre at second base but the Rays reportedly love his makeup and work ethic, which has likely kept him from being forced into the outfield. I'm not sure Solak cuts it as a long term second baseman, but he keeps improving with the bat and could have a similar offensive profile to Sanchez when all is said and done, if with a little less power and a few more walks. Lastly, 21 year old Lucius Fox has the best name in the Rays' system, and he slashed .268/.351/.341 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 99/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games between Charlotte and Montgomery. Arguably the top prospect in the 2015 international free agent class when he signed, the Bahamian's bat has been fairly slow to develop but he shows plenty of speed and draws enough walks to keep himself in top prospect discussions. Defensively, he plays a solid if unspectacular shortstop, which buys his bat time, and he could start there down the road if he can show a little more thump in his bat. If not, he profiles as a speedy utility infielder, and 2019 should be telling as to where his future lies.
Low and Mid Minors Bats: 2B Vidal Brujan, C Ronaldo Hernandez, SS Taylor Walls, SS Wander Franco, 2B Tyler Frank, and OF Nick Schnell
While many of the upper-minors bats are fringe-starters aside from Jesus Sanchez, there is some real excitement down a few rungs on the farm, with a few hitters having legitimate star potential. 21 year old Vidal Brujan is one of the top prospects in the entire system, his huge breakout season consisting of a .320/.403/.459 slash line, nine home runs, 55 stolen bases, and a 68/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte, and he actually hit better after the promotion (.347/.434/.582 in 27 games) than before (.313/.395/.427 in 95 games). Despite standing just 5'9", Brujan's huge season as a 20 year old in A ball showed a great feel for the barrel, excellent plate discipline, and top-flight speed that could make him an impact leadoff man at the major league level. He's pretty good at second base but isn't the most consistent, and he could make a great center fielder if the Rays choose to go that route. Either way, look for Brujan as the Rays' leadoff man of the future beginning sometime around 2020. 21 year old Ronaldo Hernandez emerged as the system's clear top catching prospect by slashing .284/.339/.494 with 21 home runs and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Bowling Green, his raw power taking a step forward. Unlike most young catchers, Hernandez can both field and hit well, showing power, on-base ability, the ability to keep strikeouts down, and all around good defense behind the plate. He has not played above Class A, which unfortunately gives the bat plenty of time to falter, but his ability to find the barrel and make consistent loud contact should help mitigate some risk. Hernandez has the ceiling of a solid starting catcher who can actually be a net-positive at the plate, unlike most MLB catchers in today's game. 22 year old Taylor Walls spent the entire season in Class A, which is not ideal for a 2017 college draftee (third round, 79th overall out of Florida State), but he was young for a college junior and slashed .304/.393/.428 with six home runs, 31 stolen bases, and an 80/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Bowling Green. He brings an advanced approach at the plate, lots of line drive contact, and good speed as well as sound infield defense. He should be able to handle shortstop and profiles best as a utility infielder, one who won't hit for much power but who can get on base and play pretty much any position. 17 year old Wander Franco, not to be confused with his brother, Astros prospect Wander Franco, his other brother, Giants prospect Wander Franco, or his father, former minor leaguer Wander Franco, is the best and most exciting prospect in this system (and the best of all the Wander Franco's). At just 17 years old, Franco slashed .351/.418/.587 with eleven home runs and a 19/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at rookie level Princeton, showing an exceptional feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, more power than you'd expect from a 5'10" teenager, and the possibility to stay at shortstop, all well shy of even being able to legally buy a lottery ticket. Players can develop offensive skill sets like Franco's, but they rarely if ever do it at that age and virtually never while being able to play the middle infield. A lot can happen between rookie ball and the majors, but Franco is set to turn 18 during spring training and he is already way, way, way ahead of the curve. His ceiling is that of a perennial All Star. 22 year old Tyler Frank, a Florida native and Florida Atlantic University alum, was the Rays' second round pick (56th overall) in 2018 and got off to a hot start by slashing .288/.425/.412 with two home runs and a 28/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at short season Hudson Valley. While he doesn't have much punch in his bat yet, his advanced approach at the plate will help him move quickly through the minors and could give him a job as a utility man in the near future. If he adds a little power like he is capable of, he has a shot at competing for a starting spot at shortstop or second base. Lastly, 18 year old Nick Schnell was a compensation round pick (32nd overall) out of an Indianapolis high school in 2018 and didn't get off to quite as fast of a start, slashing .239/.378/.373 with one home run and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in complex ball. He has plenty of raw power and the patience to help inflate his on-base percentages, and the Rays hope that once he gets some development time under his belt after playing high school ball in the Midwest, he can blossom into a middle of the order hitter whose great right field defense can help make him an impact player. Of course, the 18 year old has a lot to work on to get there.
Mid and Upper Minors Arms: RHP Brent Honeywell, LHP Colin Poche, RHP Rollie Lacy, RHP Phoenix Sanders, LHP Resly Linares, RHP Tobias Myers, and RHP Austin Franklin
The Rays get deeper and deeper in arms the lower you go in the farm system, with the recent graduations of Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Ryne Stanek, and many others, as well as the trades of Brock Burke and Genesis Cabrera, thinning the group at the top. 23 year old Brent Honeywell should have been on that graduation list as well, but he missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery and lasts another year on prospect lists. Honeywell is a 6'2" right handed pitcher who checks all the boxes of a future frontline starter, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball complimented by a full array of secondaries, most notably a devastating screwball. He also adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which except the curve can get consistent swings and misses, and he commands everything extremely well. He would have been yet another one of the big names in the 2018 rookie class had he not gone down with surgery, but he'll get another shot in 2019 to prove that he's the real deal. Honeywell has the ceiling of a true ace, and if he comes back healthy and the same pitcher he was before the surgery, he'll be at least an effective #4 starter. 25 year old Colin Poche has been absolutely lights out since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the 14th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2016 (10-3, 1.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 227/55 K/BB career), and he topped it off with arguably the minors' best season by a reliever in 2018: 6-0, 0.82 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 110/19 K/BB in 66 innings between AA and AAA. That's right, the 6'3" lefty struck out 45.6% of those he faced, walked just 7.9%, and allowed just seven runs (six earned) to cross the plate in 66 innings of work in the minor leagues' highest levels. He throws his fastball in the low 90's but gets lots of deception and lands it right where he wants it, adding a hard, effective slider to keep hitters off balance and rack up the strikeouts. He has a classic set-up profile and should be an impact reliever for the Rays beginning in 2019. 23 year old Rollie Lacy, the former Creighton Bluejay who was traded from the Cubs to the Rangers in the Cole Hamels trade in 2018, then from the Rangers to the Rays in a massive three team deal this offseason, posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings between Class A and High A in 2018. He sits right around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent curve and changeup, but everything plays up due to his command and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He looks like a #5 starter or a long reliever at this point. 23 year old Phoenix Sanders is a local product as a native of Gainesville, Florida and a former USF Bull, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings between Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. He's a 5'10" righty with a low 90's fastball and a decent slider and changeup, but he controls everything well and should be a useful middle reliever in the near future. 21 year old Resly Linares has quietly jumped onto national prospect radars over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 97/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings at Bowling Green in 2018. Linares doesn't throw that hard and sits in the low 90's, adding a good curveball and a fairly advanced changeup that he has decent command of. He's fairly projectable at 6'2" and as a lefty, he has a high floor and will be useful in a variety of roles. Overall, he projects as a #3 or #4 starter, but I get a good feeling that 2019 could be a breakout season and he could be much more. 20 year old Tobias Myers, another local product (Winter Haven, FL), got out of that dreadful Orioles' pitching development program in the Tim Beckham trade and has improved considerably with the Rays, posting a 3.71 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 101/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings at Class A Bowling Green in 2018. He's just six feet tall but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, commanding everything fairly well and looking like a solid #3 or #4 starter on the right days. He still needs to get more consistent with that command and improve his changeup, but he's a nice arm to track and the Rays do well with developing pitchers. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Franklin is yet another Florida arm (from Paxton, up in the panhandle on the Alabama line), and he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 65/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings at Bowling Green. He has better stuff than all the Bowling Green arms listed before him on this list (Sanders, Linares, Myers), coming in with a low 90's fastball, a power curveball, and an advanced changeup, all of which generate outs in their own ways. However, the 6'3" righty has very mediocre command and gets hit far harder than he should, leading to a lower strikeout rate that is a bit of a red flag for now. However, the Rays will continuously work with him to hit his spots and get ahead in the count, which will help his stuff play up and push him towards being a solid #3 starter. However, without the command, he risks being bumped to the bullpen.
Low Minors Arms: RHP Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP Shane Baz, RHP Michael Mercado, LHP Shane McClanahan, LHP Matthew Liberatore, and RHP Sandy Gaston
The Rays probably have the best collection of low minors pitchers in the game, especially if you throw in Resly Linares, Tobias Myers, and Austin Franklin up at Class A. I really like a lot of these guys, and I think they could pull quite a few impact pitchers out of the group. 22 year old Simon Rosenblum-Larson is actually the lowest regarded prospect in this group, but I had to include him after a fantastic debut where he posted a 1.16 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 62/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings between short season Hudson Valley and Class A Bowling Green this year. He was a 19th round pick out of Harvard in 2018, and he actually faltered over his last few appearances of the season; through August 24th, he had a 0.25 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 58/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 36.2 innings, having allowed just one earned run through those 36.2 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard but has a great feel for pitching and mixes his pitches effectively, and he'll look to rise as a middle reliever type. 19 year old Shane Baz came over from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade, and he is immensely talented despite a somewhat slow start to his pro career. In 2018, he posted a 4.47 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 59/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball, flashing great stuff but showing that his command might be a little further behind than anticipated. Baz is a 6'3" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very deep arsenal of secondary pitches, all of which are very effective. He brings a hard cutter that gives hitters a different look from his fastball, throws both a slider and a curveball with significant bat-missing ability, and adds a solid changeup. With all of these pitches, his command sometimes falters and he hasn't always been the most consistent with his delivery, leading to him getting hit harder than he should. Still, he won't turn 20 until June and scouts love his makeup and competitiveness, giving him top of the rotation potential if he can pull it all together. 19 year old Michael Mercado is another high school draftee from that 2017 class (second round, 40th overall from San Diego) that has gotten off to a slow start. In 2018, Mercado posted a 5.22 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 38/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings at Hudson Valley, struggling to miss bats as he learned to command his pitches. He sits in the low 90's and adds a pretty good curveball, but his control is ahead of his command at this point and that is where he gets hurt with his decent stuff. He's extremely projectable at 6'4" and I really liked him on draft day in 2017, and he's really only a few tweaks away from breaking out as a prospect and potential mid-rotation arm. At this point, though, his mean projection is looking more like a #4 or #5 starter without those steps forward. 21 year old Shane McClanahan was the Rays' compensation pick (31st overall) in the 2018 draft out of USF, a year after his college teammate Phoenix Sanders was a tenth rounder to Tampa. McClanahan, a Florida Gulf Coast native from Cape Coral, was sharp in his debut and tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, one walk, and 13 strikeouts between complex ball and rookie level Princeton, though he faltered in the Appalachian League playoffs and allowed four runs in three innings. He's a 6'1" lefty with a blazing fastball that sits in the upper 90's, adding a decent slider and a great changeup to keep hitters off balance. However, he struggles with his command and with the lack of a good breaking ball, he has some adjustments to make in his transition to full season ball in 2019. In order to remain a starter, he'll either have to improve his command or slider, though improving both could make him a #2 guy. Without big steps forward in either of those areas, though, McClanahan runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball/changeup combination could make him a high-leverage reliever. 19 year old Matthew Liberatore, the Rays' first round pick (16th overall) out of high school in Phoenix, was one of my favorite draft prospects ever and he posted a 1.38 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 37/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings between complex ball and Princeton. Liberatore is a 6'5" lefty who has a ton of similarities to Clayton Kershaw including size, handedness, velocity, breaking balls, command, and even delivery. He sits in the low 90's projects for more, and he has already hit 97 a few times. When it comes to offspeeds, he adds a big breaking curveball, a new, sharp slider, and an advanced changeup, all of which he commands and mixes well. I am a huge fan of Liberatore's ceiling as a guy who could have plus stuff and plus command, and while most project him as a mid-rotation starter, I think he has #2 or even ace upside. Keep a close eye on Liberatore in 2019. Lastly, 17 year old Sandy Gaston has not appeared in the minor leagues but he throws comfortably in the mid 90's from a projectable 6'3" frame. These young teenagers can develop in any number of directions, especially given that Gaston won't turn 18 until after the 2019 season, but he has high upside if he can improve his command and secondary pitches.
Two Way Players: Brendan McKay and Tanner Dodson
No, I didn't forget these guys. As far as I know, there are four legitimate two-way players in American pro baseball, and the Rays have the second and third best behind Shohei Ohtani and ahead of my former high school teammate Andy McGuire (now in the Blue Jays' system). 23 year old Brendan McKay's arm is ahead of his bat, and in 2018 he posted a 2.41 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 103/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings between complex ball rehab, Class A Bowling Green, and High A Charlotte. He's a 6'2" lefty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball to go along with a cutter and a changeup, and he commands everything very well. He's a classic innings eating, mid-rotation starter with a high floor as a back-end guy. At the plate, he slashed .214/.368/.359 with six home runs and a 52/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at the same levels, showing great plate discipline but struggling to tap into the home run power that got him drafted as a two way player. The Rays are shifting him from first base to DH for the 2019 season, which they hope will help him develop both as a pitcher and a hitter with one less thing on his plate. He still has a shot at being a 25 homer bat, but he'll need to start tapping into that power in 2019 if he wants to get that chance. 21 year old Tanner Dodson isn't a starter like McKay, instead splitting time between the bullpen and the outfield at California before being drafted in the competitive balance round (71st overall) in 2018. On the mound, he posted a 1.44 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at short season Hudson Valley, showing a mid 90's fastball and a great slider that misses bats. He also commands both pitches well, giving him the set-up man upside. At the plate, Dodson slashed .273/.344/.369 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 34/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games for Hudson Valley, showing more speed and contact than power. He actually could stick in center field and he has a sound enough approach and bat-to-ball skill set that he could be a useful fourth outfielder, but I see his future as being on the mound. We'll see how the Rays deal with that in 2019.
Affiliates: AAA Durham Bulls, AA Montgomery Biscuits, High A Charlotte Stone Crabs, Class A Bowling Green Hot Rods, Short Season Hudson Valley Renegades, rookie level Princeton Rays, complex level GCL and DSL Rays
High Minors Bats: 2B Brandon Lowe, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, OF Jesus Sanchez, 2B Nick Solak, and SS Lucius Fox
We'll start by getting the more advanced hitters out of the way, even though most of the excitement lies lower in the system. 24 year old Brandon Lowe, the first of Tampa Bay's three star Lowes to make the majors, slashed .297/.391/.558 with 22 home runs and a 102/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AA Montgomery and AAA Durham in 2018 before putting up a .233/.324/.450 line with six home runs in his 43 game major league debut. Because he finished with 129 at bats, he just barely retains prospect status for 2019, but he has a very good shot at grabbing playing time quickly in Tampa. He's naturally a second baseman but has also seen time in the outifeld, giving him some positional flexibility that makes his bat more valuable. He's not quite an impact hitter, but Lowe can post solid on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, meaning he should fit right into the Rays' long term plans and be a steady bat and glove in their lineup for at least the next few seasons. 23 year old Nathaniel Lowe, not related to Brandon despite also having been born in Virginia's Hampton Roads area (Brandon grew up in Suffolk, Nathaniel moved to the Atlanta area), had a huge breakout in 2018 by slashing .330/.416/.568 with 27 home runs and a 90/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A Charlotte, Montgomery, and Durham in 2018. In just one season, Lowe went from average hitting first baseman who was more or less organizational depth to a legitimate impact bat who slashed .356/.432/.588 in High A, .340/.444/.606 in AA, and .260/.327/.460 in AAA. He still doesn't provide much value on defense, but he has shown above average power as well as the ability to get to it consistently in the high minors, and he could crack the Rays starting lineup at some point early in 2019. Long term, he's likely a platoon bat just because the offensive bar is so high for first basemen, but expect him to get some big hits in the near future as a guy who, at best, could hit 20-25 home runs per season with pretty decent on-base percentages. 21 year old Jesus Sanchez wasn't as highly regarded as some of the others stars in 2014 international free agent class, but he has done nothing but hit since signing and slashed .282/.324/.433 with eleven home runs and a 92/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games between Charlotte and Montgomery in 2018. Sanchez has no standout tool but does everything well, showing some power, the ability to find the barrel and get on base, and good outfield defense, all against mostly older competition. He still needs a little more time for his bat to acclimate to the upper minors, but Sanchez has the ability to be a net-positive on both sides of the ball, and if he can improve his plate discipline just a little bit, he could be an impact hitter with 15-20 home run power and solid on-base percentages in the long run. 24 year old Nick Solak, who came over from the Yankees in last offseason's big three-team trade that included Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, slashed .282/.384/.450 with 19 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 112/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Montgomery in his first season in the Rays' system. The Louisville product is definitely more well known for his bat, as he makes consistent hard contact and draws plenty of walks, which together have helped him turn in a gaudy .296/.390/.445 line with 34 home runs in three minor league seasons. His ability to find the barrel helps his power play up, and what was once a utility projection now has some room for a future in the starting lineup. He's mediocre at second base but the Rays reportedly love his makeup and work ethic, which has likely kept him from being forced into the outfield. I'm not sure Solak cuts it as a long term second baseman, but he keeps improving with the bat and could have a similar offensive profile to Sanchez when all is said and done, if with a little less power and a few more walks. Lastly, 21 year old Lucius Fox has the best name in the Rays' system, and he slashed .268/.351/.341 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 99/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games between Charlotte and Montgomery. Arguably the top prospect in the 2015 international free agent class when he signed, the Bahamian's bat has been fairly slow to develop but he shows plenty of speed and draws enough walks to keep himself in top prospect discussions. Defensively, he plays a solid if unspectacular shortstop, which buys his bat time, and he could start there down the road if he can show a little more thump in his bat. If not, he profiles as a speedy utility infielder, and 2019 should be telling as to where his future lies.
Low and Mid Minors Bats: 2B Vidal Brujan, C Ronaldo Hernandez, SS Taylor Walls, SS Wander Franco, 2B Tyler Frank, and OF Nick Schnell
While many of the upper-minors bats are fringe-starters aside from Jesus Sanchez, there is some real excitement down a few rungs on the farm, with a few hitters having legitimate star potential. 21 year old Vidal Brujan is one of the top prospects in the entire system, his huge breakout season consisting of a .320/.403/.459 slash line, nine home runs, 55 stolen bases, and a 68/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte, and he actually hit better after the promotion (.347/.434/.582 in 27 games) than before (.313/.395/.427 in 95 games). Despite standing just 5'9", Brujan's huge season as a 20 year old in A ball showed a great feel for the barrel, excellent plate discipline, and top-flight speed that could make him an impact leadoff man at the major league level. He's pretty good at second base but isn't the most consistent, and he could make a great center fielder if the Rays choose to go that route. Either way, look for Brujan as the Rays' leadoff man of the future beginning sometime around 2020. 21 year old Ronaldo Hernandez emerged as the system's clear top catching prospect by slashing .284/.339/.494 with 21 home runs and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Bowling Green, his raw power taking a step forward. Unlike most young catchers, Hernandez can both field and hit well, showing power, on-base ability, the ability to keep strikeouts down, and all around good defense behind the plate. He has not played above Class A, which unfortunately gives the bat plenty of time to falter, but his ability to find the barrel and make consistent loud contact should help mitigate some risk. Hernandez has the ceiling of a solid starting catcher who can actually be a net-positive at the plate, unlike most MLB catchers in today's game. 22 year old Taylor Walls spent the entire season in Class A, which is not ideal for a 2017 college draftee (third round, 79th overall out of Florida State), but he was young for a college junior and slashed .304/.393/.428 with six home runs, 31 stolen bases, and an 80/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Bowling Green. He brings an advanced approach at the plate, lots of line drive contact, and good speed as well as sound infield defense. He should be able to handle shortstop and profiles best as a utility infielder, one who won't hit for much power but who can get on base and play pretty much any position. 17 year old Wander Franco, not to be confused with his brother, Astros prospect Wander Franco, his other brother, Giants prospect Wander Franco, or his father, former minor leaguer Wander Franco, is the best and most exciting prospect in this system (and the best of all the Wander Franco's). At just 17 years old, Franco slashed .351/.418/.587 with eleven home runs and a 19/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games at rookie level Princeton, showing an exceptional feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, more power than you'd expect from a 5'10" teenager, and the possibility to stay at shortstop, all well shy of even being able to legally buy a lottery ticket. Players can develop offensive skill sets like Franco's, but they rarely if ever do it at that age and virtually never while being able to play the middle infield. A lot can happen between rookie ball and the majors, but Franco is set to turn 18 during spring training and he is already way, way, way ahead of the curve. His ceiling is that of a perennial All Star. 22 year old Tyler Frank, a Florida native and Florida Atlantic University alum, was the Rays' second round pick (56th overall) in 2018 and got off to a hot start by slashing .288/.425/.412 with two home runs and a 28/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games at short season Hudson Valley. While he doesn't have much punch in his bat yet, his advanced approach at the plate will help him move quickly through the minors and could give him a job as a utility man in the near future. If he adds a little power like he is capable of, he has a shot at competing for a starting spot at shortstop or second base. Lastly, 18 year old Nick Schnell was a compensation round pick (32nd overall) out of an Indianapolis high school in 2018 and didn't get off to quite as fast of a start, slashing .239/.378/.373 with one home run and a 23/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in complex ball. He has plenty of raw power and the patience to help inflate his on-base percentages, and the Rays hope that once he gets some development time under his belt after playing high school ball in the Midwest, he can blossom into a middle of the order hitter whose great right field defense can help make him an impact player. Of course, the 18 year old has a lot to work on to get there.
Mid and Upper Minors Arms: RHP Brent Honeywell, LHP Colin Poche, RHP Rollie Lacy, RHP Phoenix Sanders, LHP Resly Linares, RHP Tobias Myers, and RHP Austin Franklin
The Rays get deeper and deeper in arms the lower you go in the farm system, with the recent graduations of Blake Snell, Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Ryne Stanek, and many others, as well as the trades of Brock Burke and Genesis Cabrera, thinning the group at the top. 23 year old Brent Honeywell should have been on that graduation list as well, but he missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery and lasts another year on prospect lists. Honeywell is a 6'2" right handed pitcher who checks all the boxes of a future frontline starter, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball complimented by a full array of secondaries, most notably a devastating screwball. He also adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which except the curve can get consistent swings and misses, and he commands everything extremely well. He would have been yet another one of the big names in the 2018 rookie class had he not gone down with surgery, but he'll get another shot in 2019 to prove that he's the real deal. Honeywell has the ceiling of a true ace, and if he comes back healthy and the same pitcher he was before the surgery, he'll be at least an effective #4 starter. 25 year old Colin Poche has been absolutely lights out since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the 14th round out of Dallas Baptist in 2016 (10-3, 1.47 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 227/55 K/BB career), and he topped it off with arguably the minors' best season by a reliever in 2018: 6-0, 0.82 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 110/19 K/BB in 66 innings between AA and AAA. That's right, the 6'3" lefty struck out 45.6% of those he faced, walked just 7.9%, and allowed just seven runs (six earned) to cross the plate in 66 innings of work in the minor leagues' highest levels. He throws his fastball in the low 90's but gets lots of deception and lands it right where he wants it, adding a hard, effective slider to keep hitters off balance and rack up the strikeouts. He has a classic set-up profile and should be an impact reliever for the Rays beginning in 2019. 23 year old Rollie Lacy, the former Creighton Bluejay who was traded from the Cubs to the Rangers in the Cole Hamels trade in 2018, then from the Rangers to the Rays in a massive three team deal this offseason, posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings between Class A and High A in 2018. He sits right around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent curve and changeup, but everything plays up due to his command and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He looks like a #5 starter or a long reliever at this point. 23 year old Phoenix Sanders is a local product as a native of Gainesville, Florida and a former USF Bull, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.1 innings between Class A Bowling Green and High A Charlotte. He's a 5'10" righty with a low 90's fastball and a decent slider and changeup, but he controls everything well and should be a useful middle reliever in the near future. 21 year old Resly Linares has quietly jumped onto national prospect radars over the past two seasons, posting a 3.20 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 97/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings at Bowling Green in 2018. Linares doesn't throw that hard and sits in the low 90's, adding a good curveball and a fairly advanced changeup that he has decent command of. He's fairly projectable at 6'2" and as a lefty, he has a high floor and will be useful in a variety of roles. Overall, he projects as a #3 or #4 starter, but I get a good feeling that 2019 could be a breakout season and he could be much more. 20 year old Tobias Myers, another local product (Winter Haven, FL), got out of that dreadful Orioles' pitching development program in the Tim Beckham trade and has improved considerably with the Rays, posting a 3.71 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 101/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings at Class A Bowling Green in 2018. He's just six feet tall but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball, commanding everything fairly well and looking like a solid #3 or #4 starter on the right days. He still needs to get more consistent with that command and improve his changeup, but he's a nice arm to track and the Rays do well with developing pitchers. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Franklin is yet another Florida arm (from Paxton, up in the panhandle on the Alabama line), and he posted a 3.62 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 65/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings at Bowling Green. He has better stuff than all the Bowling Green arms listed before him on this list (Sanders, Linares, Myers), coming in with a low 90's fastball, a power curveball, and an advanced changeup, all of which generate outs in their own ways. However, the 6'3" righty has very mediocre command and gets hit far harder than he should, leading to a lower strikeout rate that is a bit of a red flag for now. However, the Rays will continuously work with him to hit his spots and get ahead in the count, which will help his stuff play up and push him towards being a solid #3 starter. However, without the command, he risks being bumped to the bullpen.
Low Minors Arms: RHP Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP Shane Baz, RHP Michael Mercado, LHP Shane McClanahan, LHP Matthew Liberatore, and RHP Sandy Gaston
The Rays probably have the best collection of low minors pitchers in the game, especially if you throw in Resly Linares, Tobias Myers, and Austin Franklin up at Class A. I really like a lot of these guys, and I think they could pull quite a few impact pitchers out of the group. 22 year old Simon Rosenblum-Larson is actually the lowest regarded prospect in this group, but I had to include him after a fantastic debut where he posted a 1.16 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 62/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings between short season Hudson Valley and Class A Bowling Green this year. He was a 19th round pick out of Harvard in 2018, and he actually faltered over his last few appearances of the season; through August 24th, he had a 0.25 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 58/8 strikeout to walk ratio through 36.2 innings, having allowed just one earned run through those 36.2 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard but has a great feel for pitching and mixes his pitches effectively, and he'll look to rise as a middle reliever type. 19 year old Shane Baz came over from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade, and he is immensely talented despite a somewhat slow start to his pro career. In 2018, he posted a 4.47 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 59/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball, flashing great stuff but showing that his command might be a little further behind than anticipated. Baz is a 6'3" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very deep arsenal of secondary pitches, all of which are very effective. He brings a hard cutter that gives hitters a different look from his fastball, throws both a slider and a curveball with significant bat-missing ability, and adds a solid changeup. With all of these pitches, his command sometimes falters and he hasn't always been the most consistent with his delivery, leading to him getting hit harder than he should. Still, he won't turn 20 until June and scouts love his makeup and competitiveness, giving him top of the rotation potential if he can pull it all together. 19 year old Michael Mercado is another high school draftee from that 2017 class (second round, 40th overall from San Diego) that has gotten off to a slow start. In 2018, Mercado posted a 5.22 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 38/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings at Hudson Valley, struggling to miss bats as he learned to command his pitches. He sits in the low 90's and adds a pretty good curveball, but his control is ahead of his command at this point and that is where he gets hurt with his decent stuff. He's extremely projectable at 6'4" and I really liked him on draft day in 2017, and he's really only a few tweaks away from breaking out as a prospect and potential mid-rotation arm. At this point, though, his mean projection is looking more like a #4 or #5 starter without those steps forward. 21 year old Shane McClanahan was the Rays' compensation pick (31st overall) in the 2018 draft out of USF, a year after his college teammate Phoenix Sanders was a tenth rounder to Tampa. McClanahan, a Florida Gulf Coast native from Cape Coral, was sharp in his debut and tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, one walk, and 13 strikeouts between complex ball and rookie level Princeton, though he faltered in the Appalachian League playoffs and allowed four runs in three innings. He's a 6'1" lefty with a blazing fastball that sits in the upper 90's, adding a decent slider and a great changeup to keep hitters off balance. However, he struggles with his command and with the lack of a good breaking ball, he has some adjustments to make in his transition to full season ball in 2019. In order to remain a starter, he'll either have to improve his command or slider, though improving both could make him a #2 guy. Without big steps forward in either of those areas, though, McClanahan runs the risk of ending up in the bullpen, where his fastball/changeup combination could make him a high-leverage reliever. 19 year old Matthew Liberatore, the Rays' first round pick (16th overall) out of high school in Phoenix, was one of my favorite draft prospects ever and he posted a 1.38 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 37/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings between complex ball and Princeton. Liberatore is a 6'5" lefty who has a ton of similarities to Clayton Kershaw including size, handedness, velocity, breaking balls, command, and even delivery. He sits in the low 90's projects for more, and he has already hit 97 a few times. When it comes to offspeeds, he adds a big breaking curveball, a new, sharp slider, and an advanced changeup, all of which he commands and mixes well. I am a huge fan of Liberatore's ceiling as a guy who could have plus stuff and plus command, and while most project him as a mid-rotation starter, I think he has #2 or even ace upside. Keep a close eye on Liberatore in 2019. Lastly, 17 year old Sandy Gaston has not appeared in the minor leagues but he throws comfortably in the mid 90's from a projectable 6'3" frame. These young teenagers can develop in any number of directions, especially given that Gaston won't turn 18 until after the 2019 season, but he has high upside if he can improve his command and secondary pitches.
Two Way Players: Brendan McKay and Tanner Dodson
No, I didn't forget these guys. As far as I know, there are four legitimate two-way players in American pro baseball, and the Rays have the second and third best behind Shohei Ohtani and ahead of my former high school teammate Andy McGuire (now in the Blue Jays' system). 23 year old Brendan McKay's arm is ahead of his bat, and in 2018 he posted a 2.41 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 103/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings between complex ball rehab, Class A Bowling Green, and High A Charlotte. He's a 6'2" lefty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball to go along with a cutter and a changeup, and he commands everything very well. He's a classic innings eating, mid-rotation starter with a high floor as a back-end guy. At the plate, he slashed .214/.368/.359 with six home runs and a 52/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at the same levels, showing great plate discipline but struggling to tap into the home run power that got him drafted as a two way player. The Rays are shifting him from first base to DH for the 2019 season, which they hope will help him develop both as a pitcher and a hitter with one less thing on his plate. He still has a shot at being a 25 homer bat, but he'll need to start tapping into that power in 2019 if he wants to get that chance. 21 year old Tanner Dodson isn't a starter like McKay, instead splitting time between the bullpen and the outfield at California before being drafted in the competitive balance round (71st overall) in 2018. On the mound, he posted a 1.44 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at short season Hudson Valley, showing a mid 90's fastball and a great slider that misses bats. He also commands both pitches well, giving him the set-up man upside. At the plate, Dodson slashed .273/.344/.369 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 34/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games for Hudson Valley, showing more speed and contact than power. He actually could stick in center field and he has a sound enough approach and bat-to-ball skill set that he could be a useful fourth outfielder, but I see his future as being on the mound. We'll see how the Rays deal with that in 2019.
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
Reviewing the Toronto Blue Jays Farm System
Over the past few years, the Blue Jays have transformed their farm system from more or less average to one of the best in the game by simply not having many busts. They have had a ton of guys break out over the past few seasons, and of course, none bigger than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the best pure bat in recent memory. Vladimir Guerrero, Craig Biggio, Dante Bichette, and Jeff Conine all have kids in this system, giving the system the best bloodlines in baseball. There is more hitting talent than pitching talent here, but they're definitely not short on arms and Blue Jays fans have plenty of reasons to be excited.
Affiliates: AAA Buffalo Bisons, AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, High A Dunedin Blue Jays, Class A Lansing Lugnuts, Short Season Vancouver Canadians, rookie level Bluefield Blue Jays, and complex level GCL and DSL Blue Jays
The Headliner: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
19 year old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (you might have heard of his father) is the best prospect in baseball, and unless you are absolutely enamored with Fernando Tatis Jr.'s upside, it's not really that close. Guerrero burst onto the scene in 2017 by slashing .323/.425/.485 with more walks than strikeouts in Class A and High A as just an 18 year old, then established himself as the best prospect in all of baseball by slashing .381/.437/.636 with 20 home runs and a 38/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 games, mostly at AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo, in 2018. Those are crazy numbers regardless of the context, but Guerrero was a 19 year old in the highest levels of the minors and showed elite contact, elite power, and elite plate discipline all along. This is a true middle of the order bat, one that could produce 30-40 home runs per season with on-base percentages over .400; those are MVP numbers. Defensively, he's mediocre at third base but has worked hard to remain at the position, and he could be adequate there in the long run with a little luck. However, if he has to move to first base or back to the outfield, he is such a gifted hitter that it won't be a problem. Guerrero, who turns 20 in March, will likely spend the first few weeks of the 2019 season "working on his defense" (i.e. postponing his free agency by a year) but once he is called up towards the end of April, he'll be the frontrunner for the AL Rookie of the Year Award.
High Minors Hitters: C Danny Jansen, C Reese McGuire, OF Anthony Alford, 1B Rowdy Tellez, SS Bo Bichette, 2B Cavan Biggio, and SS Santiago Espinal
Take away Guerrero, the best prospect in baseball, and the Blue Jays are still very deep in the upper minors with plenty of potential bats that could be anywhere from usable to impactful. 23 year old Danny Jansen is one of the top catching prospects in the game, following up his breakout 2017 by slashing .275/.390/.473 with 12 home runs and a 49/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AAA Buffalo, then slashing .247/.347/.432 with three home runs in a 31 game stint in the majors. He's average defensively, but with his great plate discipline and ability to find the barrel regularly, he should be able to put it together and be a full-time starting catcher as soon as this season. In fact, if the Blue Jays don't make any moves before Opening Day, there won't be much competition for the starting catcher's spot come the beginning of the season, and Jansen could win it outright. He won't be a middle of the order hitter, but he should still be a net-positive in the lineup and that's plenty for a catcher. 23 year old Reese McGuire, the first round pick (14th overall) from the same 2013 draft that produced Jansen in the 16th round, is Jansen's primary competition behind the plate after slashing .233/.312/.339 with seven home runs and a 77/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games at Buffalo, followed by a .290/.333/.581 line with a pair of home runs in 14 major league games. McGuire is clearly the superior defender, but his bat is also clearly behind Jansen's and he looks primed for the back-up role. Together, he and Jansen will make a good tandem behind the plate in the classic bat-first starter, glove-first backup mold. Out in the outfield, 24 year old Anthony Alford has seen his development stall in the upper levels, and he slashed .238/.314/.339 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 120/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Dunedin and Buffalo, also slashing .105/.190/.105 in 13 major league games. He's a speedy center fielder whose defense has kept him afloat in this stacked system, and when his bat is going, he looks like a future starter. However, that bat has been very inconsistent as he has lost control of the strike zone from time to time, and at this point he looks more like a competent fourth outfielder than a future leadoff man. However, when he's going right, he can still be a very valuable player for the Blue Jays and string together time in the starting lineup here and there. 23 year old Rowdy Tellez, the 30th round pick from that 2013 draft that produced Jansen and McGuire, slashed .270/.340/.425 with 13 home runs and a 74/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at Buffalo, then got hot in his first taste of major league action and slashed .314/.329/.614 with four home runs in 23 games for the Blue Jays. He's a big guy at 6'4" who hits for good power and can get the bat on the ball consistently, though as a first baseman with mediocre defense, he'll have to continue to hit to earn playing time in the majors. 2019 will be the year we find out whether he can provide the requisite big numbers for the position, though to me, he looks more like a platoon bat. 20 year old Bo Bichette, the son of Dante Bichette, followed up his huge 2017 (.362/.423/.565, 14 HR, 22 SB) with another big 2018, slashing .286/.343/.453 with eleven home runs, 32 stolen bases, and a 101/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143 games at AA New Hampshire, playing the whole season at 20 years old. He's a second baseman with a great bat, one that should produce high batting averages in the majors while hitting at least 15-20 home runs and 30-40 doubles per season. He has fantastic bat control and can find the barrel as consistently as anybody, enabling him to employ a big swing and maximize what power he has in his six foot frame. Defensively, there's a chance he could stick at shortstop, though he's just alright there and might be able to provide more value at a different position. 23 year old Cavan Biggio, son of Craig Biggio, had a breakout year this year and slashed .252/.388/.499 with 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 148/100 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at New Hampshire. Biggio is a power hitter with an extremely patient approach that allows him to draw tons of walks, but which also leads to a fair amount of strikeouts. If the strikeouts turn out to be a problem at the next level, he might end up just a utility infielder, but if he can keep control of the strike zone, he profiles as an offensive-minded second baseman who could pop 20 home runs per season and draw enough walks to give him more than respectable on-base percentages, which adds up to a very valuable player. Lastly, 24 year old Santiago Espinal, acquired from the Red Sox for Steve Pearce, slashed .297/.356/.444 with ten home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 67/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games between High A and AA. He's a little bit old for a prospect who just made it out of High A, but he brings a good glove at shortstop and backs it up with a line drive bat and an advanced approach at the plate. He provides enough value on defense that there isn't too much pressure on his bat, and the fact that he could profile as a useful hitter in the major leagues makes him a prospect worth tracking. We'll have to see how he holds up over a full season in the upper minors but he could be a strong utility infielder or a fringe-average starting shortstop.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: SS Kevin Smith, SS Logan Warmoth, OF Griffin Conine, SS Ronny Brito, SS Jordan Groshans, OF Cal Stevenson, and SS Orelvis Martinez
Lower in the minors, the Blue Jays don't quite have impact prospects like Guerrero and Bichette, but there is still some tremendous upside when you get down to the very bottom of the system. They do, though, have a ton of prospects who could potentially play shortstop (joining Bo Bichette and Santiago Espinal from the previous section), and that's one of the hardest positions to check off in a system. Up in the middle of the system, 22 year old Kevin Smith represents the best in the pack after slashing .302/.358/.528 with 25 home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 121/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin. Most of the production came at the lower level (.355/.407/.639) but he still held his own at the higher level (.274/.332/.468), and that he hit this well at all is a welcome sign for the Blue Jays. Toronto took him in the fourth round out of Maryland in 2017, where he posted just a .323 on-base percentage as a junior and struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances, showing raw power in batting practice but struggling to prove he could be more than a one-trick pony with the bat. He still doesn't draw a ton of walks and he takes his fair share of strikeouts, but he has done a much better job of getting to his power in pro ball and he pushed his on-base percentage up to .358. Defensively, he's pretty good at shortstop and may be able to stick there, taking even more pressure off his bat and giving him a real chance to be a long term starter. To do that, of course, he'll have to continue to manage the strike zone as well as he has and continue to make adjustments. Meanwhile, 23 year old Logan Warmoth, the Jays' first round pick (22nd overall) in that same 2017 draft, has had the opposite experience in pro ball, seeing his great college numbers (.336/.404/.554 as a junior at UNC) drop significantly in the minors. In 2018, he slashed .249/.330/.317 with just one home run and a 73/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, mostly at Dunedin, continuing to put the bat on the ball at a decent clip and get on base but seeing his power completely evaporate. I wasn't a big fan of the pick at the time and now my worries about his bat are proving to be warranted, though finding the barrel a bit more in 2019 could turn his fortunes around. He's still a competent shortstop who would be an above average defender if moved to second base, so the defense does buy the bat some slack, but he does need to start hitting soon if he wants to remain relevant in this system. 21 year old Griffin Conine (son of Jeff Conine) had a shot at being a first round pick out of Duke in 2018, but his plate discipline fell apart in the spring and he slid to the Blue Jays in the second round (52nd overall), after which he slashed .243/.314/.430 with seven home runs and a 65/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, mostly at short season Vancouver. He has a ton of raw power from a very strong frame at 6'1", but his long swing and tendency to sell out for the power hurts his ability to get to it consistently. The Blue Jays will work with him to shorten that swing and ease up on the selling out, and if they can successfully help him improve in those areas without sacrificing power, Conine could be a legitimate impact bat. I was a big fan of his before his approach fell apart in the spring, so I really hope he can get back to where he was and potentially provide 30 homer power with solidly decent defense in right field. 19 year old Ronny Brito was acquired from the Dodgers for Russell Martin this offseason, having slashed .295/.359/.496 with 11 home runs and a 78/23 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and rookie ball in 2018. He's a slick fielding shortstop whose bat is supposedly behind his glove, but the power outburst in the Pioneer League showed that his upside is more than just that of a utility infielder. A successful transition to full season ball as a 20 year old in 2019 could sent Brito shooting up prospect lists, as good defensive shortstops who can hit are a rarity (except in this system, apparently). 19 year old Jordan Groshans was a first round pick (12th overall) out of a Houston area high school in 2018, and he slashed .296/.353/.446 with five home runs and a 37/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games between complex ball and rookie level Bluefield. He was much better in complex ball (.331/.390/.500) than in rookie ball (.182/.229/.273), but a big showing in the Appalachian League playoffs would have pushed that rookie ball slash line up to a much more respectable .268/.333/.411. Groshans is a legitimate hitter with power, some plate discipline, and the ability to barrel the ball up consistently, and when you combine that with the potential (although not guarantee) to stick at shortstop, he's a complete player. Like Brito, he could shoot up prospect lists with a strong transition to full season ball in 2019. 22 year old Cal Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona in 2018 and likely maxes out as a fourth outfielder, but he had such a great debut that he deserves a writeup. After signing, Stevenson slashed .369/.511/.523 with two home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a fantastic 24/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games between complex ball and Bluefield, showing a tremendous feel for the strike zone as well as the ability to get the bat on the ball virtually whenever he wanted to. At a skinny 5'10", he lacks power and will likely never develop much, but anybody who can get on base at a .500 rate in the minors (and steal 21 bases in 22 tries) is worth watching regardless of the power production, so 2019 will be very interesting when he plays against more age-appropriate competition. Lastly, 17 year old Orelvis Martinez has not played professionally yet, but he signed for $3.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in July and has tremendous upside. He has a quick, powerful swing that will need some tweaking, and his advanced feel for hitting could come together with that power potential to make him an all-around impact bat. Defensively, he's pretty good at shortstop but even if he has to move to third base eventually, he should be a net-positive on defense. Overall, he's completely unproven and has a lot of work to do to reach his ceiling, but at 17 years old he'll have plenty of time to do so and could be an all-around impact player if it all works out.
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Sean Reid-Foley, RHP David Paulino, RHP Trent Thornton, RHP T.J. Zeuch, RHP Hector Perez, and RHP Elvis Luciano
The Blue Jays aren't as deep in pitching as they are in hitting, but there are still plenty of arms near the top of the minors, some of which could turn into very productive, long-term starters. 23 year old Sean Reid-Foley is a 6'3" right hander out of Jacksonville who went 12-5 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 150/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings between AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo, and who then posted a 5.13 ERA and a 42/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 major league innings. He's a classic mid-rotation starter with a low to mid 90's fastball and a wide arrange of secondary pitches, none of which stick out as plus but all of which he mixes effectively. The command is fairly average, but when he's mixing his stuff well, SRF is tough to square up and he could be a very solid #3 or #4 starter in Toronto. 25 year old David Paulino has already made appearances for the Astros in 2016 and 2017, as well as the Blue Jays in 2018, but with just 42.2 total major league innings (5.48 ERA, 42/12 K/BB), he still qualifies as a prospect. His development has been choppy to say the least, as he has missed significant time with injuries throughout his career and was hit with an 80 game PED suspension in 2017, and in his seven minor league starts in 2018 he posted a 4.67 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 33/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings between AAA and complex ball rehab. He's a massive, 6'7" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball, a very good set of secondaries that produce swings and misses, and even pretty good command that helps it all play up. However, with all the injuries and the suspension, he hasn't been able to stay on the mound long enough to get any real traction (in eight pro seasons, he has never thrown more than 90 innings in one season), so there's a lot more risk associated with him than you'd expect given his profile. Paulino could be anything from a solid #3 starter to a middle reliever. 25 year old Trent Thornton is another former Astro, coming over this offseason for Aledmys Diaz, and he posted a 4.42 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 122/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AAA. He sits in the mid 90's and adds a pair of swing and miss breaking balls, and with his good command, he should be major league ready on Opening Day. However, his changeup has never really materialized, making the rest of his stuff play down a hair, so the Blue Jays hope that access to new pitching coaches will help him get over the hump and go from back-end starter type to legitimate #3 or #4 guy. 23 year old T.J. Zeuch was the Blue Jays' first round pick (21st overall) in 2016 out of Pittsburgh, and he posted a 3.17 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 105/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 156.1 innings at High A Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2018. He's 6'7" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a full array of secondaries and making it work so far despite a low strikeout rate. Overall, I'm a bit worried about his transition to AAA and the majors in 2019 because the secondaries just haven't proven to be anything special yet, even with the slider standing out a bit as a go-to pitch. His ability to throw more than 150 innings in 2018 was a plus, but there's some reliever risk here if he can't take a step forward with either his secondaries or his average command. If he does take that step forward, he could be a #3 starter. 22 year old Hector Perez came over from the Astros with Paulino in the Roberto Osuna trade, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 133/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings between High A and AA in the two systems. He's a fireballer with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a solid set of breaking balls, generating tons of swings and misses despite mediocre command. That command is what has held him back so far, as his stuff is good enough to dominate upper-level hitters right now and is just a small step forward in consistency from dominating major leaguers as well. If he can learn to have even average command in addition to getting a little more consistent with his stuff, he's a potential #2 or #3 starter, but without adjustments he likely profiles as a hard-throwing reliever. Lastly, 18 year old Elvis Luciano has not pitched above rookie ball, but he's included in this section (rather than the low-minors section) for a very interesting reason. The Blue Jays selected him in the Rule 5 Draft, meaning that unless the Jays want to send him back to Kansas City, Luciano will have to break camp with the major league team and last the entire season in the majors. That will be a tough task for a teenager who just posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings at the Royals' rookie ball affiliates, as he will completely bypass full season ball in such a way that would make Juan Soto proud. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but the rest of his game is raw (as you'd expect from an 18 year old) and he'll probably get hit hard in the majors. If he does stick, then the Blue Jays deserve a big pat on the back for adding a potential mid-rotation starter. Additionally, if he breaks camp with the team on Opening Day (lest he'd be sent back to the Royals), Luciano would not only become the first player born in 2000 to play in the majors, he'd beat out every 1999 player as well assuming that his new teammate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., spends the first few weeks of the season in AAA "working on his defense."
Low Minors Pitchers: RHP Nate Pearson, RHP Eric Pardinho, RHP Adam Kloffenstein, RHP Sean Wymer, and RHP/1B Andy McGuire
The Blue Jays aren't nearly as deep in low minors pitchers as they are in low minors hitters or even upper minors pitchers, though two arguably the two most exciting arms in the system are in this demographic. 22 year old Nate Pearson was a first round pick (28th overall) in 2017 out of a Florida junior college, though he missed the beginning of 2018 with back problems then fractured his forearm in his first start back, ending his season with two earned runs in 1.2 innings (10.80 ERA) at High A. Pearson is a fireballing 6'6" right hander with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider, though the rest of his game needs work. His control comes and goes and he hasn't developed a consistent changeup yet, and the lost season in 2018 didn't help. However, with his top tier arm strength, it's easy to envision him piling up the strikeouts as he moves through the minors just on his two main pitches, and developing either his command or his changeup could make him a mid-rotation starter; developing both could make him a #2 or even an ace. Even if he remains the pitcher he is today, Pearson has a high floor as a hard throwing reliever whose fastball could sit right around 100 in short stints, which could make him a set-up man or even a closer. We'll see what strides he makes in 2019. 18 year old Eric Pardinho burst onto the scene in rookie ball this season, posting a 2.88 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 64/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings with rookie level Bluefield. Essentially just a kid, he's listed at 5'10" and just 155 pounds, but the Brazilian righty might be the best prospect ever to come out of his country now that he throws in the low 90's and adds a great curveball, a developing changeup, and better command than you would expect from someone his age and with his background. This enabled him to dominate the Appalachian League at just 17 years old, and he'll spend the whole 2019 season at just 18 years old as he transitions to full season ball and really shows us what he's made of. It's very early, but Pardinho (who was born in 2001 if you want to feel old) has ace upside. 18 year old Adam Kloffenstein was actually high school teammates with Jordan Groshans (see low minors hitters section), and now they're teammates in the Blue Jays system after Groshans was drafted 12th overall and Kloffenstein came off the board in the third round (88th overall) from Magnolia High School near Houston. Kloffenstein is a 6'5" righty who threw just two innings in complex ball this year (no earned runs, one hit, two walks, four strikeouts), bringing a low 90's fastball and a full array of secondaries to the table, all of which he commands reasonably well. He's obviously young and unproven, but Kloffenstein has a classic mid-rotation starter's profile if he can sharpen his command just a bit more, and for a high school pitcher, he really doesn't have too many adjustments he needs to make. Expect him to be a quick riser despite his age (he turns 19 at the end of the 2019 season). 21 year old Sean Wymer was the Jays' fourth round pick out of TCU in 2018 (ironically where Kloffenstein was committed to pitch collegiately), and he posted a respectable 4.84 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 34/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings at short season Vancouver after he signed. Wymer is a 6'1" righty whose command is ahead of his stuff, working in the low 90's and adding a full array of secondary pitches, none of which stand out. He didn't really being starting until his junior year at TCU, working as a reliever his first two seasons, so I think it will be interesting how pro coaching helps him continue that transition from reliever to starter. If it goes well, he could be a #4 or #5 guy, and he could still be useful as a long reliever if he is pushed back to the bullpen. Lastly, 24 year old Andy McGuire played in the same high school baseball program as me in 2012 and 2013, and he earns mention here for that as well as for his uniqueness as a prospect. McGuire was actually considered a second round talent for the 2013 draft, but he attended Texas instead and had a roller coaster of a career that saw him switch from infielder to pitcher, transfer out, transfer back in, sit out a season, get cut from the team, and finally make it back onto the roster as a fifth year senior in 2018. He played so well in 2018 that he earned a 28th round selection from the Blue Jays, who sent him to Bluefield as a two-way player. He slashed .275/.431/.375 with an 11/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games as a hitter, and he also posted a 3.09 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings as a pitcher. Having turned 24 during the offseason, he's certainly not young as far as prospects go, but it's always interesting to have a two-way player in the minors and he has the upside as either a middle reliever on the mound or a utility/bench bat.
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Reviewing the Houston Astros Farm System
The Astros' player development has been something else, having produced a homegrown, World Series-winning core of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance McCullers. Even with all of those graduations, they still have a lot of depth down on the farm, led by two super prospects in Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. It's a pitching heavy system that includes lots of potential impact arms, though guys like Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Seth Beer ensure that the group of hitters is nothing to overlook.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019
The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.
High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.
Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019
The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.
High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.
Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.
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