2022 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

The Guardians stayed very on brand here, and the result is a draft class full of guys I like. They went below slot on seven of their first eight picks but still grabbed a ton of talent in the process, then went all in on two over slot talents in the eighth and tenth rounds. As usual, the focus was on crafty college pitching, high-upside, extra young prep arms, and hit-over-power college bats almost exclusively. Between Joe Lampe, Nate Furman, Guy Lipscomb, Tyresse Turner, Pres Cavenaugh, and Angel Zarate, opposing defenses will have to stay on their toes at all times with a ton of balls in play, while first rounder Chase DeLauter brings virtually all of the power in this class. Parker Messick is one of my favorite picks of the draft, while Javier Santos has a chance to be a massive bargain as an under slot eighth rounder and Jacob Zibin could be a steal in the tenth round, though he did sign for second round money. A lot of fun names here.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-16: OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison. My rank: #14.
Slot value: $3.94 million. Signing bonus: $3.75 million ($187,600 below slot value).
We all know the Guardians love pitching and develop it well, but they're not just going to ignore a great hitter that falls into their laps. Chase DeLauter raked over his first two seasons at James Madison University in Virginia, then pushed himself into top five consideration by slashing .298/.397/.589 with nine home runs and more walks (21) than strikeouts (18) in the Cape Cod League over the summer. He lost some of that luster when he looked overmatched in a season-opening matchup against Florida State lefties Parker Messick (also drafted by the Guardians), Bryce Hubbart (Reds), and Ross Dunn, and even though he recovered to slash .437/.576/.828 with eight home runs and a 21/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games, he never quite built his stock back up. DeLauter's season came to a premature end when he broke his foot in April, giving him unbelievable career numbers at JMU: 15 home runs, .402/.520/.715, 45/62 strikeout to walk ratio in 66 games. He shows plus raw power from the left side, tapping it consistently with wood bats and against elite pitching. It's a product of a big, strong, 6'4" frame and a loose, easy uppercut. The eastern West Virginia native is also extremely disciplined in the box, rarely ever getting himself out and punishing pitchers when they do come into his zone. Doubters will point to a relatively light schedule in the Colonial Athletic Association (he got hurt just before a series against Northeastern that would have pitted him against two of the conference's top draft arms, Yankees draftees Cam Schlittler and Sebastian Keane), an unorthodox slide with his back foot, and the fact that he got carved up in his ACC matchup, but I would point to the fact that Messick and Hubbart are an extraordinarily difficult way to begin your season, cold, after a long winter. I'd also point emphatically to his track record on the Cape, where he adeptly controlled the zone against college baseball's best. Together, it's a potential 30 home run bat that can post high on-base percentages and hit right in the middle of the order for a long time. DeLauter is also a good runner with a strong arm that can play a solid right field, and he's extremely young for a college junior with an October birthday. 

CBA-37: RHP Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State. My rank: #48.
Slot value: $2.1 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($401,800 below slot value).
Justin Campbell had serious interest in the first round, but the Guardians managed to snag him here about ten picks lower than he was potentially projected and still save over $400,000 in the process. Originally a two-way player when he reached campus at Oklahoma State, he steadily improved on the mound and after dropping hitting completely in 2022, he broke out for a 3.82 ERA and a 141/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings including fourteen strikeout performance against TCU. Campbell is a massive, 6'7" righty that comes from an extremely high slot, bringing the ball seemingly straight down on you. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has been registering more 96's and 97's at peak, and its high spin rates give it plenty of life to nicely counteract the approach angle. That means hitters see the fastball coming down on them and prepare to match the angle, but it deceptively stays just a bit higher than you'd think. He works in a big, deep curveball, a newer slider, and a changeup that flashes above average. With a big, durable frame and an easy delivery, he commands his stuff well and projects as a high probability big league starting pitcher. The Southern California native could climb the ladder rather quickly and contribute as a #4 starter in the near term before perhaps growing into a larger role.

2-54: LHP Parker Messick, Florida State. My rank: #46.
Slot value: $1.41 million. Signing bonus: $1.3 million ($107,100 below slot value).
This is one of my favorite picks of the entire draft, especially considering the Guardians managed to save over $100,000 here in the second round on a guy I thought looked like a first rounder frequently this spring. Parker Messick has been one of the better pitchers in the ACC for a few years now, and that was certainly the case in 2022 when he put up a 3.38 ERA (ironically a career-worst) and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.2 innings. He's kind of the opposite of Justin Campbell, standing just six feet tall to Campbell's 6'7". His fastball also sits in the low 90's, topping out at a modest 95 when he really reaches back, while supplementing it with a full arsenal. His curveball and slider are average pitches, flashing above average on his best days, but they don't really project to be true out pitches at the pro level. His changeup does, as a consistently above average pitch that flashed plus in his better starts this spring. He uses his stocky frame to his advantage, crouching down in his delivery and delivering the ball with a relatively flat approach angle. He hides the ball extremely well, which combines with the tough angle he creates, makes for a very deceptive look for hitters that really have trouble picking him up. On top of all that, he pitches with fire and mercilessly goes right after hitters, taking command and controlling at bats from start to finish to make his above average command play up further. The Tampa-area native did see his stuff flatten out a little bit late in the season, but that's not uncommon for these workhorse college starters that carry the load for their teams and frequently throw 110+ pitches. Messick doesn't necessarily project to be an ace, but I see him as a very high probability big league starter with a good shot to become a #3, especially in this system.

3-92: OF Joe Lampe, Arizona State. My rank: #121.
Slot value: $670,200. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($129,800 above slot value).
Joe Lampe is an interesting prospect that has built his stock little by little since transferring from Santa Rosa JC in California to Arizona State, breaking out in 2022 to slash .340/.394/.590 with 12 home runs and a 30/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. It's a fun profile that brings a lot to the table. Lampe is a contact hitter with a smooth, rhythmic load that gives way to a line drive swing. He has an all-fields approach and rarely swings and misses, and in 2022 he began to turn on the ball for some power to the pull side. His exit velocities are just average and Tempe is a hitter-friendly environment, so I don't think his power will play up too much in pro ball, but his plus speed means that he'll stretch plenty of gap shots into doubles and triples. Lampe hits everything in sight and likes to put the ball in play early in the count, leading to low walk rates, and he probably projects as a 5-10 home run hitter with high batting averages that can eke out an every day role if things break out right. He was drafted as an outfielder, where his speed should keep him in center field, but he also has experience at second base and can handle the infield if needed. These kinds of Swiss army knife types aren't terribly common any more, so it's a good profile to have in the system.

4-121: 2B Nate Furman, Charlotte. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $497,900. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($197,900 below slot value).
There are no secrets with Nate Furman's profile. He's coming off an exceptional season at Charlotte, where he slashed .371/.502/.474 with two home runs and a 26/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games – that's an 8.7% strikeout rate to a 16.3% walk rate if you're keeping track. Standing just 5'8", Furman is not a power threat at all, instead slashing balls to all fields with elite consistency. He tracks pitches extremely well, lets them get deep, spits on the bad ones, and drives the good ones to all fields with a quick, simple left handed swing. The Philadelphia-area native rarely gets fooled, gets on base, and finds the barrel virtually every time. There is virtually zero power in this profile, with his best chance at running up his slugging percentage coming when he splits the gap and lets his plus speed get to work. That impact will drop even further with wood bats, so his value will be entirely reliant on that on-base percentage. Having just turned 21 in July as a draft eligible sophomore, he should move through the minors very quickly and could be one of the Guardians' first draftees to crack the big league roster, likely ultimately slotting into a utility role. His best position is second base.

6-181: RHP Dylan DeLucia, Mississippi. My rank: #143.
Slot value: $284,200. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($9,200 below slot value).
Dylan DeLucia was one of the latest risers in the class, but when he did break out, it was loud. A transfer from Northwest Florida State, DeLucia was a steady hand in the Ole Miss rotation throughout the year, but really turned it on in super regionals, when he blanked Southern Miss for 5.2 innings with nine strikeouts. He followed that up with a gem against Auburn in the College World Series, then finished it off with his best performance yet in the Bracket 2 final against Arkansas. In that start, he tossed a complete game, four hit shutout with no walks and seven strikeouts to send the Rebels to the College World Series final, catapulting himself into Ole Miss lore and pushing himself up several rounds in the process. He finished the season with a 3.68 ERA, a run lower than it had been entering super regionals, and a 105/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. The Daytona Beach native sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 94-95, adding in an above average slider with hard, tight sweep and a nice fading changeup. He has a stocky build with a strong lower half and puts it to good use with a drop and drive delivery. By getting down into his glutes, he creates a low release point and a flat approach angle with its fastball, making it appear more explosive than its average velocity and helping it play off his offspeeds. He can get scattered with his command, more so with his offspeed stuff than his fastball, but pounds the strike zone anyways and limits his walks as a result. The 6'1" righty is a bulldog on the mound and may thrive in a bullpen role where his command won't matter as much, but he's plenty strong enough to start with the ability to hold his velocity deep. It's an interesting profile for sure.

7-211: RHP Javier Santos, Georgia Premier Academy [GA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $222,400. Signing bonus: $125,000 ($97,600 below slot value).
This pick has a *chance* to be the bargain of the draft. You usually have to pay a premium to divert a high school pitcher away from college, especially when they have stuff like Javier Santos, but the Guardians managed to get it done with just $125,000 and instead of Northwest Florida State, he'll jump right into their system. Santos is a premium arm talent, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up to 98 with great ride. He adds a projectable curveball with good spin rates, flashing above average at time but it's very inconsistent and can soften up. His changeup is a distant third pitch. The Dominican has an explosive right arm that promises even more velocity, though he has a ways to go. In addition to refining his secondary stuff, he needs to get stronger to hold his velocity deeper into starts while also getting more consistent with his delivery in order to hit spots more consistently. The ceiling is tremendous, especially in a system like Cleveland that develops pitching extremely well, though he's a bit undersized at six feet tall and could end up in the bullpen. He turned 19 more than a month before the draft, making him very old for the class, and is coming from the same Georgia Premier Academy that produced fellow electric Guardians arm Daniel Espino.

8-241: LHP Jackson Humphries, Fuquay-Varina HS [NC]. My rank: #141.
Slot value: $180,000. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($420,000 above slot value).
Jackson Humphries represents one of the biggest over slot signings in the Guardians class to skip out on a Campbell commitment, and for good reason. He came out of the gate hot this spring and had scouts flocking to Raleigh-area high school, pushing his way into second round consideration, but he couldn't maintain it and saw his stock fall back down as a result. At his best, Humphries sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has hit 96, coming in with some riding action despite a steeper release. He can really spin the ball, with a deep slider that flashes plus at its best and dives under bats at the last second in addition to a curveball that has flashed above average, while his changeup is a fourth pitch. The 6'1" lefty is a good athlete that held the zone fairly well early in the season, but he struggled with command later in the season and hasn't shown enough for scouts to call that a fluke. While his command faltered, his stuff also backed up and his breaking balls didn't look as sharp, so the Guardians have some work to do. If they can get him back to the guy he looked like early this spring, Humphries could be a legitimate impact starting pitcher. If not, his feel for spin should serve him well in a bullpen role.

10-301: RHP Jacob Zibin, TNXL Academy [FL]. My rank: #76.
Slot value: $152,000. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($1.05 million above slot value).
Jackson Humphries was a nice get, but all those under slot deals throughout the first nine rounds, they were mostly saving up for this one right here. Jacob Zibin earned roughly the slot value for the 61st overall pick here in the tenth round, turning down a strong commitment to Kentucky in the process to go pro. Originally from Canada, Zibin moved from Vancouver to Orlando to attend TNXL Academy and reclassified to be eligible for the 2022 class, making him one of the youngest players drafted this year with a 2005 birthday. His profile has taken a big step forward, with his fastball now sitting in the low to mid 90's and scraping the upper 90's, adding a sweepy slider and an above average changeup to go with it. There is some rocking back and forth in his delivery which moves his center of gravity, but he's a great athlete with otherwise sound mechanics that fills up the strike zone very well for someone so young. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and could sit in the mid 90's soon, and if he can continue to sharpen up that offspeed stuff while allowing his command to progress, there is #2 starter upside here. It's one of the most well-rounded profiles I've ever seen from the 17 year old and my #76 ranking, albeit 55 spots ahead of MLB Pipeline and 51 ahead of Baseball America, may prove too conservative.

14-421: OF Pres Cavenaugh, UNC Greensboro. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Pres Cavenaugh made a name for himself in the Cape Cod League last summer, when he slashed .319/.400/.407 with a solid 16.2% strikeout rate, then continued that success by hitting .340/.403/.507 with eight home runs and a 27/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at UNC Greensboro this spring. He's yet another hit-over-power bat that makes a ton of contact to all fields, employing an aggressive approach that limits his walks somewhat at the same time. Still, he gets the barrel to the ball all over the zone and it hasn't hurt him to this point, even against elite pitching on the Cape. The power here is fringy, as he's not a big guy at six feet tall, but he can turn on one and punish you if you leave it over the plate. The Charlotte native is not quite as fast as some of the other hit-over-power types in this Guardians draft class, so he's a likely left fielder and will have to hit to move up. If he can show enough speed to hold down center field in a pinch or tap a little more power, he could be a very solid fourth outfielder that racks up hits and gets on base.

17-511: OF Angel Zarate, North Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
Angel Zarate represents a very similar profile to Pres Cavenaugh, albeit over a year older. He's a fifth year senior that picked up just one hit in seventeen at bats over his first two seasons at UNC, but he's been an on-base machine for the Tar Heels over the past three seasons with a .350/.432/.498 slash line, 13 home runs, and a 65/72 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games in that span. Not overly physical, he makes a lot of contact and has great innate feel for the barrel, spraying line drives to all fields from a simple left handed swing. He has tapped some power at UNC by recognizing good pitches and catching them out front, and he could continue to be an ambush threat in pro ball. But most of his value will come from posting high on-base percentages and driving line drives to the gaps. The northern North Carolina native probably a tick worse of a defender than Cavenaugh, profiling as a corner outfielder, so ideally the power will have to play in pro ball for him to cut it as a fourth outfielder.

2022 MLB Draft: Previewing the Nationals #5 Overall Pick (June Update)

The Nationals pick at #5 this year, their highest selection since their back to back first overall picks in 2009 and 2010, which means virtually every player should be under consideration here. In fact, the only player I can confidently say won't reach the Nationals is Atlanta-area high school outfielder Druw Jones, whose combination of plus power, considerable polish, and supreme athleticism make him the top prospect in the class. Everyone else, though, should be in play. I previewed ten options back in February then again in April, and now we'll give one more update on who Nationals fans should be looking for as the July 17th draft rapidly approaches.

The Nationals have a bonus pool of just over $11 million and a slot value of just under $6.5 million for their first round pick. They can spend as much or as little as they want in that first round, but are bound by that $11 million number for all of their picks combined, lest they start incurring penalties.

All rankings from my May 4th update. Some players have moved up or down since then.

C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech. My rank: #5.
2022: 26 HR, .360/.453/.715, 11 SB, 31/30 K/BB in 59 games.
It's no secret that the Nationals have really locked in on Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada, and if the draft were today, it seems most likely that this would be the pick if he were available. Parada has some interest throughout the top five so that's no guarantee, but with plenty of other talent available (especially on the high school side), it's certainly possible and perhaps even likely. A product of the Los Angeles high school ranks, he drew second round interest back in 2020 but headed across the country to school and that has paid off, finishing his Yellow Jacket career with 35 home runs and a .340/.428/.630 slash line across 111 games. Ever since those prep days, Parada has stood out for his extremely professional at bats, showing a sublime ability to work counts, make adjustments, and use the whole field against premium pitching. The power, meanwhile, has ticked up steadily as he's matured, from above average as a high schooler to plus as a freshman to perhaps plus-plus as a sophomore, playing against strong ACC pitching and sending home runs out to all fields with ease. Between the power and the approach, there is very, very little to nitpick with the bat, especially considering he won't turn 21 until after the draft. Some may not like his unique setup, in which he holds his hands high above his head with the barrel pointed down his back as if he's trying to use it as a back scratcher, but he's always on time with his load and I have no problem with the setup. The glove isn't quite at the same level as the bat, but it is improving. He has an unremarkable arm and is not the most nimble backstop I've seen behind the plate, so a better defender like Keibert Ruiz, Drew Millas, or Israel Pineda (if the latter two's bats come along) could push him off the position. However, he is in a better place than he was two years ago as a prep and scouts love his work ethic, and I expect that the Nationals feel confident he will work hard enough to become an adequate defender. The upside here is an everyday big league catcher that can pop 30+ home runs per year while getting on base at a high clip. To put that in perspective, only two catchers (Salvador Perez and Mike Zunino) hit more than 25 home runs last year and neither had an on-base percentage above the league-wide average of .317. I do not expect that Parada would take a discount on his signing bonus given his age and interest throughout the top ten picks.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #3.
Druw Jones won't be available at the fifth overall pick, but the Nationals could get a shot at a player with similar or perhaps superior physical tools, but a bit less polish. Like Parada, Green has plenty of interest throughout the top five picks and there is no guarantee he is available, but if he does reach the Nationals, it's hard to see them passing on the upside. Green might have the loudest raw tools of any player in the class, showing off massive raw power, plus-plus speed, and tremendous arm strength from the outfield from a premium 6'3", 225 pound frame. And he's not raw, either. The Orlando-area native came out of the gate a bit slowly this spring and struck out more than evaluators would have like to have seen from a top of the draft prospect, but he righted the ship in a big way as the spring wore on and regained any stock that might have slipped in February and March. There is still some swing and miss, especially on fastballs up and breaking balls down and away like most young hitters, and his swing is more geared to do damage down in the zone. He'll likely always be a little streaky, but he's shown enough polish to make evaluators very comfortable that he'll be able to maximize those prodigious tools. There is true superstar upside here, perhaps more than any individual player in the Nationals' system right now. With a Miami commitment in hand and quite a few teams competing to get him into their system, Green will not come cheap and I doubt the $6.5 million slot value will be enough to put a curly W on his hat.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech. My rank: #7.
2022: 17 HR, .328/.411/.660, 12 SB, 41/30 K/BB in 57 games.
While Parada and Green may be gone when the fifth overall pick rolls around, Gavin Cross will most likely be there. They have shown heavy interest in Cross and could be tempted by one of the best bats in the class. Cross hits the ball as hard as anybody in the class, regularly posting elite exit velocities virtually every time he comes up to hit. He has always shown the ability to track and recognize pitches, but in the past he was prone to chasing anyways simply because he was an aggressive hitter. This year, he's done a much better job of choosing the pitches he can do damage with, and the result has been a decreased strikeout rate (20.5% to 14.6%) and an increased walk rate (7.3% to 10.7%). That makes him a much more complete hitter, and one who could move fairly quickly through the Nationals' system. With his huge power, the Bristol native profiles as a middle of the order thumper who can hit 30+ home runs per year with good on-base percentages, close to the same projection as Parada. He played right field last year but moved to center field for the Hokies this season and showed well with average range and a plus arm, so even though he'll likely move back to right in pro ball, he should be above average there. Unlike Parada and Green, Cross may not require full slot value to sign here as most of his interest is in the back half of the top ten rather than the front half.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA]. My rank: #2.
Though he's one of the most famous names in the class and has been talked about near the top of the draft for a long time, Termarr Johnson is one of the harder names to pinpoint as teams will likely have diverging opinions. Johnson really made a name for himself on the showcase circuit by hitting everything in sight, but in a league that values recency, he didn't have much of a chance to build on his already robust resume this spring. Elijah Green hit very well against top competition in Florida, Druw Jones did the same in the Atlanta suburbs, and Jackson Holliday set the world on fire against more average competition in northern Oklahoma, while Johnson saw average competition in the city of Atlanta. Still, the whole package is very very enticing. Standing just 5'9", he has elite bat to ball skills and the same can be said about his eye at the plate, making it very, very difficult to get anything by him. Despite the smaller frame, he generates great torque from a rotational swing and those highest on him believe he could hit for plus power on top of his .400+ on-base percentages. While he's renowned for the bat, Johnson can flash the leather a little bit with smooth actions on the infield, but he's not quite explosive enough to handle shortstop and will likely fit in at second base going forward. This is generational talent when it comes to the hit tool, so if teams at the top of the draft believe there is 25+ home run power in the tank as well, he could go well before the Nationals pick at #5. However, if those same teams opt to go with more explosive athletes like Jones, Green, and Holliday that offer a little more upside, Johnson may fit closer to the back of the top ten. He committed to Arizona State very late in the process and may fit in right around slot value for the Nationals, perhaps a few ticks above.

3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC [FL]. My rank: #14.
2022: 8 HR, .333/.419/.537, 5 SB, 33/25 K/BB in 52 games.
Cam Collier is looking like a very similar prospect to Termarr Johnson at this point, and with my most recent rankings having come out over a month ago, that #14 is inaccurate. When the draft rolls around, he'll almost certainly have a single digit number next to his name if he keeps hitting on the Cape like he has. Collier was supposed to be a high school junior this year at Mount Paran Christian High School in the Atlanta area, but he graduated two years early to enroll at Chipola Junior College in the Florida Panhandle this spring. Despite having just turned 17 in November, he slashed .333/.419/.537 against some of the best JuCo pitching in the country and struck out just 15.3% of the time, an extraordinary feat for someone so young. Professional hitter doesn't even begin to describe Collier, who recognizes all kinds of pitches and uses the entire field with ease even against pitchers two to three years his senior. While he still has plenty of time to develop physically, he already packs a lot of compact strength into his 6'2" frame and can really drive the baseball, enough so that with his barrel accuracy he should be able to provide 20+ home runs a year in the majors. Like Johnson, he's not quite an explosive athlete, but he plays a very solid third base and has a much stronger arm than his fellow Georgian, which should help him stick there. This is the highest floor you could possibly ask for from a 17 year old. If he can reach the majors by the end of 2024, he'll be the first teenager to play Major League Baseball since Elvis Luciano in 2019 and the first to do so without the aid of a Rule 5 fluke since Juan Soto in 2018. It won't be easy and I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly possible and he has the best odds in this class. He is getting more and more interest near the top of the draft, but because guys like Jones, Green, Holliday, and even Johnson have more upside, I'd say it's pretty likely he'll be available to the Nationals at pick #5. Committed to Louisville, he'll be draft eligible again at 20 years old and that may seem enticing if he doesn't get the bonus he wants, but Washington should still be able to grab him without going too far above slot.

SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #6.
When I wrote my first article in February, Jackson Holliday was more likely to be the Nationals' second round pick than their first. When I wrote my April update, Holliday got a mention but I wrote that fifth overall might be a bit of a stretch. Now in June (and in fact not long after I wrote that first article), not only is fifth overall not a stretch, but there's a sizable chance he isn't even available when the Nationals pick (the Rangers are reportedly targeting him at third overall). Matt Holliday's son has exploded this spring into one of the best high school players in the country, tacking on significant strength and immediately deploying those physical gains into game power. He was already well-regarded for his approach at the plate and ability to find the barrel, so going from below average to above average power really completed the profile. Holliday is also a strong defender in the infield and has a chance to stick at shortstop, but even if he slows down a touch, his strong arm will make him an above average third baseman. The Nationals would get a complete package in Holliday who could team up with Brady House to form a mean left side of the infield for years to come. Committed to Oklahoma State to play for both his uncle and father, he will not be cheap in this spot and will likely require the Nationals to go well above slot value.

SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly. My rank: #4.
2022: 15 HR, .357/.462/.664, 3 SB, 28/46 K/BB in 58 games.
Brooks Lee is another player who may not reach the Nationals, having received interest throughout the top of the draft and as high as the Orioles at #1. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in the entire class, striking out at just a 13.6% clip as a sophomore and then dropping it below 10% this year despite rarely getting much to hit. Lee was a very aggressive hitter early in his career, regularly chasing pitches out of the zone but still finding ways to make things happen and rarely swinging and missing. This year, he dialed it back significantly and forced pitchers to come to him, then punished them on the rare occasions that they did. The California native also possesses plus power from both sides of the plate, which is a scary thought for someone who makes as much contact as he does. He's really filled out since high school and looks like a physical specimen with plenty of compact strength in his 6'2" frame. On defense, he's a high IQ player that makes all the routine plays, though if he slows down at all as he ages, he'll be forced over to third base where his arm will still play. Despite being a college player, Lee has enough interest throughout the top of the draft that I expect he will require at least full slot value.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech. My rank: #8.
2022: 14 HR, .335/.481/.612, 5 SB, 42/59 K/BB in 61 games.
Jace Jung has received interest throughout the back half of the top ten, and he's every bit the hitter that Gavin Cross, Kevin Parada, and Brooks Lee are. He has absolutely demolished Big 12 pitching while at Texas Tech, slashing .336/.472/.653 with 35 home runs and far more walks (108) than strikeouts (87) in 117 games over the past two seasons. Jung has always been a very patient hitter that is happy to spit on junk out of the zone, which is mostly what he saw in college, forcing pitchers to come to him or simply taking his walks instead. Like Lee above him here, he punishes pitchers when they do come into that zone, with strong pitch recognition that allows him to put the barrel on the ball with regularity and drive it out to all fields. He records high exit velocities that translate into plus power in games, and he should be a relatively quick mover through the minors. His defense is unremarkable, with the ability to play an adequate second base or third base but nothing flashy, and he could be forced to first base if he's surrounded by better defenders. Still, the bat will profile anywhere, with the potential for 25+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages that will have him hitting in the middle of the lineup with a high degree of confidence. If he goes fifth overall, I doubt he will require the full slot value to sign and Washington could use that money later in the draft.

RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS [MI]. My rank: #19.
Pitching up in Michigan, Brock Porter came on strong later in the spring when it finally warmed up, and he'll probably see a slight bump up from that month-plus-old #19 ranking when my final rankings come out before the draft. While Dylan Lesko has long been considered the best prep pitcher in this class, his recent Tommy John surgery has clouded his draft stock and signability and allowed Porter to move into contention to be the first prep pitcher drafted. Porter throws as hard as any teenager in the country, comfortably sitting in the mid 90's and reaching back for 99-100 at his hottest. With plenty of arm strength, the Detroit-area high schooler holds that velocity deep into starts, and he gets some life on the pitch as well. Unlike most prep power pitchers, his go-to offspeed is a plus changeup with a ton of movement down in the zone, leaving high school hitters helpless and likely to do the same in pro ball. His breaking balls are a bit behind the fastball and changeup, but they've ticked up this spring with his curveball showing nice depth and his harder slider showing late snap. It's a truly enviable four pitch mix that is only trending upwards, and his clean, athletic delivery lends itself well to starting in the future even if it needs some minor touchups. While he's not pinpoint, the 6'4" righty fills up the strike zone and when you throw that hard, that's often enough. He's committed to Clemson and while high school pitchers are always expensive, I suspect that if the Nationals reach down the board a little bit for Porter, they can still get him to sign for well below slot value. He's older for a high school prospect having already turned 19, but the present stuff is so loud that that shouldn't matter too much.

Second Round Targets (pick #45, slot value $1.73 million)

Talking about the second round is just guesswork, but we know how the Nationals like to draft and we can at least highlight some options. I'll start with some money savers first in the case that Mike Rizzo goes above slot to land a player like Elijah Green or Jackson Holliday.

LHP Parker Messick, Florida State. My rank: #26.
2022: 3.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 144/18 K/BB in 98.2 innings.
I would love if the Nationals took Parker Messick in the second round, even if that #26 ranking has probably slipped a little since my May rankings update. Messick fits the Nationals' mold as a power conference performer with advanced pitchability and the ability to move quickly through the minors. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up because he hides the ball well from a deceptive delivery and because he can locate it. Messick flips in a couple of average breaking balls that he can land for strikes or use to generate chases, while his changeup has flashed plus and helps him rack up the strikeouts. Lastly, he's a dogged competitor on the mound that goes right after hitters with confidence.

RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. My rank: #73.
2022: 4.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 68/12 K/BB in 78.1 innings.
Here is another arm that fits the same mold as a pitchability guy with strong performance in a power conference. Jonathan Cannon does not have loud stuff, but gets it done with some of the best command in the entire class having walked fewer than four percent of his opponents this spring. The lanky, 6'6" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, having touched 97 in the past, but it's fairly straight and he needed to add a cutter this spring to get more movement and keep hitters off the fastball. He flashes an above average slider and changeup, and because he's constantly in pitcher's counts and hitting his spots, they play up. The Atlanta-area native turns 22 on Day Three of the draft and won't likely command a huge signing bonus in this spot, and he should move quickly through the minors as a #4 starter type.

RHP Ben Joyce, Tennessee. My rank: #110.
2022: 2.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 53/14 K/BB in 32.1 innings.
Ben Joyce isn't exactly the same type of pitcher as Messick or Cannon, but he still seems like a guy the Nationals would like given that they have not been shy about jumping on power conference relievers like Holden Powell, Reid Schaller, and Michael Kirian in the past. His #110 ranking is also not representative of where he is today, having moved up perhaps forty or so spots when I redo my rankings. If you watch college baseball, you know Ben Joyce. The 6'5" righty sits comfortably in the 101-103 range with his fastball, hitting 105 at one point this spring and completely overwhelming hitters when he's around the zone. The fastball plays up even farther because of the extension and angle he gets, making it virtually impossible to hit unless you sit on both the fastball and the location. He also shows a hard, upper 80's slider with some nice snap, but he struggles to locate it and it mostly plays up because hitters have to be ready for the fastball. The Knoxville native should move quickly as a reliever and would likely come at a discount here in the second round.

Others: RHP Connor Staine (Central Florida), C Logan Tanner (Mississippi State), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan), SS Nick Morabito (Gonzaga HS, DC), C Malcolm Moore (McClatchy HS, CA)

The above group represents some names the Nationals could look at to save some money if they went over slot on Jackson Holliday or Elijah Green, but now let's look at some splurge options if they instead go below slot on a guy like Gavin Cross, Jace Jung, or Brock Porter.

RHP Walter Ford, Pace HS [FL]. My rank: #31.
It's hard to find a better projection play than Walter Ford. He reclassified from the 2023 class so he won't turn 18 until the offseason, but already possesses a ton of athleticism and room to add good weight to his rangy 6'3" frame. Scouts love the way he moves on the mound at such a young age, and I'm sure the Nationals would love to get him into their development system and see what they can create. The fastball sits low to mid 90's for now, touching 97 with downward plane and promising to add more velocity in the future. While it's not the flat approach angle teams look for nowadays, the Nationals are more traditional and might be less concerned with that, especially considering he gets high spin rates and some hop on the pitch. Ford also spins a slider and changeup, with the former flashing above average, but both (in addition to his command) need more consistency. Ford needs a lot of development and the Nationals would have their work cut out for them, but few pitchers offer more upside in this draft. Committed to Alabama where he would be draft eligible again at just 20 years old, he'll almost certainly require a big over slot bonus in this spot.

RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS [WA]. My rank: #37.
JR Ritchie is a good picture of what Walter Ford might look like in a year and a half, because that's how much older he is. He's another athletic right hander, standing an inch shorter at 6'2", with plenty of projection remaining. His fastball sits in the same range, low to mid 90's with a peak around 97, also showing some ride and hop but mostly typical fastball movement. Ritchie's age and polish shine through with his secondaries, as he flashes plus with his slider while also showing good feel for his curveball and changeup. The Seattle-area native moves very well on the mound and throws strikes, and he also stands out as someone who really understands the game and will certainly work hard to maximize his potential. Committed to UCLA, he'll be eligible again as a sophomore in 2024 and will require more than slot value to sign here.

3B Tucker Toman, Hammond HS [SC]. My rank: #69.
Tucker Toman has seen quiet but consistent helium throughout the spring, and it could make him an over slot option for the Nationals in the second round. Toman is a switch hitter that takes whippy, powerful hacks that are very conducive to tapping game power, though for now, his left handed swing is quicker and more powerful than his right handed swing. In addition, he recognizes pitches well and gets his barrel to them with consistency, giving him the look of an all-around hitter that should transition fairly smoothly to pro ball. He's not athletic enough for shortstop but may have enough arm for third base, or he could be pushed to an outfield corner. Regardless, the Nationals would be buying the upside in his bat. Committed to LSU, he would require a sizable bonus to sign here.

Others: RHP Cole Phillips (Boerne HS, TX), OF Roman Anthony (Stoneman Douglas HS, FL), OF Henry Bolte (Palo Alto HS, CA), LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), RHP Blade Tidwell (Tennessee)

2022 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at Pick #5 (April Update)

Before the start of the season, I pulled ten options for the Nationals at the fifth overall pick. While of course players' stocks have moved in all different directions since then, things have remained *fairly* unchanged in terms of who is in play at the top of the draft. I dove a little bit into their draft history in that original article, so instead we can skip straight into who could conceivably be under consideration two months later. Considering Mike Rizzo's recent statement that he wants to shake up player development in this system, it's hard to say exactly which direction they will go.

I'm going to start by making a note on the three players that I see locking themselves in as the top three prospects. Georgia prep bats Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson as well as Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, in my opinion, are in a class of their own and have some daylight before the next group. That doesn't mean that they'll go first, second, and third overall, but there's a good chance all three are off the board in the first four picks and it's hard to say which could end up slipping through the cracks. If I had to guess, it would probably be Johnson, so I'll highlight him but leave off Jones and Lee (but if any of the three are available, I'd highly advise Washington to draft him). As a quick summary, Jones is the son of Hall of Fame candidate Andruw Jones, bringing a ridiculous combination of athleticism and polish to the field you just don't often see. A plus-plus runner, he has plenty room to add weight to his frame and already shows plus power to go with strong plate coverage and plays a mean center field. Meanwhile, Lee also shows elite bat to ball skills and this year is showing much more restraint on pitches outside the zone, patching up the biggest question mark scouts had about his game. He also shows plus power and is slashing .401/.503/.693 as of this writing.

Below are ten players the Nationals are likely considering, with their rank on my most recent top 75 in parentheses as well as, for college players, their stats through April 17th.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#3)
I don't think Termarr Johnson will be available here. One of Baltimore, Arizona, Texas, or Pittsburgh seems likely to fall in love with him, especially if Druw Jones and Brooks Lee are off the board at that point. But if he does reach #5, Washington should be all over him. Johnson is one of the best pure hitters to come through the high school ranks in years, with some calling him the best they've ever seen. He handles the strike zone like a seasoned MLB veteran, spitting on breaking balls and other pitches he doesn't like while consistently barreling up everything thrown in his ample hitting zone. Despite standing just 5'9", his combination of a keen eye and elite bat to ball skills allows him to take big, healthy hacks from the left side, producing plus power. That kind of bat certainly has the Orioles considering him with the first overall pick. The only questions in his profile are size and athleticism, as the other two top hitters in the high school class, Jones (6'4", 180) and Elijah Green (6'3", 225), are freak of nature-type athletes and Jackson Holliday (6'1", 180) has blossomed physically as well. Johnson (5'9", 190) projects more as a steady second baseman who can make all the routine plays, but won't be winning and Gold Gloves. Still, we have plenty of recent history with defensively-limited hitters going in the top couple of picks, highlighted by 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, so I don't think that should be an issue. Believe it or not, he remains uncommitted which conventionally lead you to believe he won't be as expensive as someone like Jones, Green, or Dylan Lesko, but he's so talented that there is bound to be a bidding war for his services and he won't come cheap.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#4)
2022: 8 HR, .352/.439/.680, 4 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 30 games.
Cross entered the season as the #6 player on my board and now has hit well enough to push himself to #4, putting him right in range for the Nationals at #5. He's a hard-hit machine that sprays deep fly balls, screaming line drives, and hot shot ground balls all around the field. Even when he swings over pitches, he still pounds them into the ground with such force that they turn into high choppers that take a while to come down. This is a power bat through and through. The Bristol, Tennessee native has always tracked pitches well out of the hand, but an aggressive approach led to a somewhat unsightly 48/17 strikeout to walk ratio last year (a 20.5% strikeout rate). This year, he has done a much better job laying off those pitches just out of the zone and focusing on maximizing damage on pitches in the zone, matching last year's walk total already while cutting his strikeout rate in half to just 9.5%. Now that he has patched up that last hole in his profile, he's a much more complete hitter and the Nationals will likely strongly consider him with the fifth overall pick, perhaps ahead of every other college bat (of which there are plenty) except Lee. His defensive profile has raised this year as well, seamlessly moving from right field to center field and showing the ability to potentially stick there. If his larger 6'3", 210 pound frame does ultimately force him back to right, he's shown enough this year to convince evaluators he'll still be above average at that position.

C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech (#5)
2022: 18 HR, .380/.471/.778, 5 SB, 19/21 K/BB in 37 games.
Kevin Parada just missed this list before the season, but he's improved is stock significantly this spring despite already being considered a consensus first round bat. Always known as a well-rounded hitter with a professional approach and above average power, he's taken a step forward on both sides of that equation this spring. He cut his strikeout rate from a solid 16.9% a year ago to a very strong 10.2% this year, while also improving his walk rate from 7.0% to 11.2%. Tacking on some strength helped his previously above average power play up to easy plus this spring, perhaps double plus depending on who you ask, and it's playing to all fields consistently, not just the pull side. His defensive ability remains a bit of a question mark, with so-so athleticism and arm strength, but he's known by area scouts to possess a very strong work ethic and many are confident he will put in the work to stick behind the plate. He's pushed to the front of an extremely strong college catching class even if he's not a surefire lock to stay at the position, mostly because he's arguably the best hitter in all of college baseball. To boot, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore and younger than the other college names on this list, not turning 21 until after the draft. If the Nationals believe he will eventually improve to an average defender, there's no denying the bat and he could very easily be the pick at fifth overall.

RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#6)
In the past, I think Mike Rizzo would have been all over an arm like Dylan Lesko, and even with the evolving development philosophy in the system, Rizzo will still likely strongly consider the Atlanta-area righty. In a class extremely short on college pitching, the high schooler has established himself as the consensus top pitching prospect at either level and will probably be the only arm in play at pick #5 unless a prep lefty like Noah Schultz, Jackson Ferris, or Brandon Barriera is willing to take a big discount. Many evaluators consider Lesko to be the best prep pitching prospect in years, an honor he has really driven home this spring. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch the upper 90's with ease, while his changeup is arguably the best in the class with ludicrous life. Some scouts have nitpicked his ability to spin a breaking ball, but he has always shown high spin rates on his curve and slider (indicating attainable room for improvement) and this spring they have been more consistent. They're above average pitches most of the time and are trending towards plus. He's a great athlete that repeats his delivery well, fills up the strike zone with all four pitches, and has some projection left to boot. There is tremendous risk associated with high school righthanders and he recently came down with a little bit of soreness in his arm, so the Nationals' scouting department will be following that development very closely. But if they deem him healthy, it's really hard to look away from an eighteen year old that checks every single box. He's committed to Vanderbilt and would be a very expensive sign, even this high in the draft.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2022: 10 HR, .379/.527/.714, 4 SB, 24/42 K/BB in 39 games.
If the Nationals decide that all they care about in this spot is the bat, then Jace Jung might be high on their list. After hitting .337/.462/.697 as a sophomore, he's somehow improved in all three measures of the triple slash while dropping his strikeout rate from 17.0% to 12.8% and increasing his walk rate from 18.6% to 22.3%. He's gotten very little to hit all spring, but continues to show an extremely disciplined approach at the plate and when he has gotten his pitch, he hasn't missed it. In addition to his patience, he continues to show plus power to all fields and looks like arguably the safest bet to become and impact hitter in the college class (again, perhaps except for Lee). He plays second base for Texas Tech right now and would be a decent, Daniel Murphy-like defender there, or he could switch over to third base and be good enough there as well. Either way he won't be winning any Gold Gloves, but it's nice to have at least a little versatility from a top tier bat that can stick on the dirt.

C Daniel Susac, Arizona (#8)
2022: 7 HR, .385/.436/.627, 0 SB, 28/11 K/BB in 36 games.
Daniel Susac has followed a very similar path to Kevin Parada. While Parada was clearly the better prospect at the time, both drew significant draft interest out of their respective California private schools in 2020 (Loyola for Parada, Jesuit for Susac) and instead headed to school. Now after pushing their names into the first round conversation as freshmen, both have improved their stock further this spring and make the Nationals' short list after just missing it at the beginning of the spring. While Parada is relatively old for a sophomore with his August birthday and therefore draft-eligible, Susac is the age of a college junior with a May birthday and doesn't quite get the extreme age advantage of Parada, but he's still relatively young for a college-eligible player. He shows plus power and excellent batted ball metrics from his long limbed, 6'4" frame and has been an extra base hit machine in Tucson, tallying 60 in 97 career games so far. While he's a very free swinger, he makes a ton of contact and has still managed to drop his strikeout rate from 17.7% last year to 15.6% this year, a very reasonable number. The Sacramento-area product has also improved considerably behind the plate as a strong framer with a strong arm. It's really hard to find catchers with that combination of power, bat to ball ability, and defense, so really the only question mark in his profile is that free swinging approach. If he was striking out over 20% of the time, it might be more worrisome, but given the consistent hard contact he has made against strong competition in the Pac-12, the fact that he rarely walks is more of an afterthought in the profile. I would prefer Parada in this spot but Susac has made a very good case for himself.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
Long a headliner for this prep class, Elijah Green has been talked about as high as first overall in the past and more recently has endured rumors he could fall out of the top ten. Despite possessing the loudest physical tools in the entire class, the inconsistency of his hit tool is currently leaving evaluators with very split opinions. He showed well on the showcase circuit, but came out this spring in a bit of a funk and swung and missed at an alarming rate if we're going by the context of the top ten picks, then more recently, has righted the ship and looks as locked in as ever. So that leaves evaluators to decide – is Green a streaky hitter who will always deal with slumps, or has he turned a corner and is that slow start just a blip on an otherwise stellar track record? If the Nationals believe the latter, then they should be all over the Orlando native at pick #5. As most are well aware of by now, he possesses massive raw power unparalleled anywhere in the high school class, power he has gotten to against good pitching in the past. Not just a slugger, he can absolutely fly on the bases with plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon in center field as well. And oh yeah, he has a cannon right arm to boot. If you want to imagine his ceiling, think of Aaron Judge with Victor Robles speed. That's really, really hard to pass up if you believe in his hit tool. He's committed to Miami and I imagine he will be quite expensive to sign.

SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK] (#11)
I'll reserve the last three spots on this list for potential money savers, mostly so it doesn't read like a plain old top ten list. Jackson Holliday, the son of former All Star Matt Holliday, has been flying up boards faster than anybody this spring. A few months ago, he was seen as more of a second round type. Over the summer, Holliday showed an advanced approach at the plate, spraying deep line drives around the park by choosing good pitches and connecting with a clean, leveraged swing. It was a very nice profile, but scouts wanted to see him fill out his frame a little bit more (I've seen him listed as short as 5'11" and as tall as 6'1" in different sources) before projecting him as a true impact player. Well, he came out this spring looking much more physical and the results have been phenomenal, just raking against Oklahoma high school pitching and hitting some impressive home runs along the way. On top of that, he's a strong defender with a plus arm with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further increasing chances he could continue to move up. Right now, pick #5 seems just a little bit rich, but he's trending up and by July could be more in play here, especially if the Nationals want a shortstop. He probably won't require full slot value here despite a commitment to play for both his uncle and father at Oklahoma State, so he could help the Nationals go above slot later in the draft.

LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS [FL] (#13)
There are three lefties jockeying for position behind top prep pitching prospect Dylan Lesko, and they are Brandon Barriera, Jackson Ferris, and Noah Schultz. None will likely be in play at the fifth overall pick on talent alone, but if the Nationals want a pitcher and Lesko is off the board (or they don't want to splurge on his high price tag), they could reach down the board a little bit for one of these three and save some money in the process. I chose to highlight Barriera, a bulldog competitor down in South Florida who recently made it known he would be wrapping up his high school season early to focus on the draft. A bit undersized at a skinny 6'1", he possesses some of the loudest stuff in the class in a low to mid 90's fastball, a wicked slider, and a relatively advanced changeup. Coming from an uptempo delivery, he pounds the strike zone relentlessly and while his control is ahead of his command, he projects to stay in the rotation long term. He really stands out for his competitive demeanor on the mound, always looking to prove doubters wrong. A Vanderbilt commitment means he won't come cheap, but at pick #5 he should still help the Nationals save a little money and Vanderbilt commits have been used in that regard in the past (see Ian Anderson, third overall in 2016).

3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#16)
2022: 7 HR, .333/.429/.525, 5 SB, 30/24 K/BB in 48 games.
Cam Collier probably isn't a top ten prospect at this point, so it will take a strong finish to his JUCO season to vault into consideration at pick #5, and he'll also likely need to take a discount. He could be that guy, though, as one of the best pure hitters in this class especially when you take his age into account. Collier should be a high school junior, but not only did he reclassify, he went the Bryce Harper route and skipped both his junior and senior seasons at Mount Paran Christian HS in the Atlanta area in order to enroll early at Chipola JC in Florida. Despite being just 17 years old while playing against mostly 18, 19, and 20 year olds, he got off to a red hot start when his season began in January and was one of the spring's first risers. He's been a little up and down since then but the overall numbers remain great and he's hitting .556 over his last seven games, so if Collier can show that he's turned a corner and is now truly settling in, he'll be in a great spot come July. He doesn't stand out for one individual tool, instead showing feel for the. game advanced beyond his years and the ability to do a little bit of everything. His professional approach at the plate is the reason he's taken so well to older pitching, and there is some natural power here to all fields that he taps without selling out. Though he's not the springiest athlete in the world, his strong arm should help him stick at third base and provide some defensive value. This is the kind of bat that could reach the majors at twenty years old if everything breaks right. He's committed to Louisville and if he heads there, will be draft eligible again as a twenty year old junior in 2025, so he has a lot of leverage. This early in the draft, though, I'd still expect him to take a sizable discount even if he finishes strong enough to warrant the selection.

Other Options
OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#10)
3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State (#12)
LHP Noah Schultz, Oswego East HS [IL] (#14)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy [FL] (#15)
OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee (#22)

Some second round options
It's very hard to predict who a team will take in the first round, especially in April, and therefore it's near impossible to guess who they'll take in the second round. So instead, I'll take a look at a few names I'd like to see the Nationals consider with the 45th overall pick.

LHP Parker Messick, Florida State (#24)
2022: 5-2, 2.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/12 K/BB in 55.1 innings.
I am very bullish on Parker Messick, and while his #24 ranking on my board may indicate he would be unlikely to reach the Nationals, he's ranked #48 by MLB Pipeline, #55 by Baseball America, and #71 by Prospects Live, so the industry definitely views him more as a second rounder. The reason I am bullish is simple, and that's because Messick can really, really pitch. He's an old school guy without big stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a curveball, slider, and changeup. Both breaking balls flash above average while the changeup flashes plus, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. However, the key to his success his pitchability, pounding the strike zone with confidence and swagger while effectively mixing pitches and changing speeds. Furthermore, everything plays up because he hides the ball extremely well, making him extremely difficult to pick up. Despite averaging a ranking of #58 between the three outlets I mentioned, I think he'll be gone within the top fifty picks due to the lack of college pitching in this class and I would love if the Nationals were the team to take him.

RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Brebeuf Jesuit HS [IN] (#26)
Andrew Dutkanych is an interesting pitcher that I think will thrive in the right development system. I'm not sure if that's Washington, but I'd rather have him on my side than not. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touches 97, and while it doesn't quite have elite movement metrics, there's plenty of velocity there to make up for it. His best pitch is a short, tight slider that gives hitters fits, while his curveball and changeup are a bit behind the fastball and slider. Everything plays up because he's an aggressive pitcher that pounds the strike zone and refuses to be beat, and I think that kind of presence will serve him well in pro ball. The Indianapolis native also shows good command for a high schooler and is athletic on the mound, portending to a future in the starting rotation. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign in the second round.

SS Jett Williams, Rockwall-Heath HS [TX] (#28)
This is another fun one, as Jett Williams would probably be a surefire first rounder if it weren't for his short stature at 5'7". However, anybody looking at the size and comparing him to Nick Madrigal would be mistaken, because his game is much more explosive, more similar to Dustin Pedroia. Williams takes big hacks from the right side to produce above average power, but he keeps it under control and doesn't let it affect his hit tool. He finds the barrel consistently and has done so against good pitching, giving me confidence he'll be an impact hitter down the road. The Dallas-area native also plays a good shortstop and could stick there in the long run, with a strong arm and good athleticism to handle the position. He's also gotten looks in center field and has impressed there with plus speed and the aforementioned arm strength, adding some versatility to the profile. I honestly doubt he'll be available at pick #45 and if he is, it will be expensive to buy him out of a Mississippi State commitment, but the glut of high school shortstops with similar skillsets in the first round/comp round range (Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, Cole Young) could push him down.

LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State (#33)
2022: 6-1, 2.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 66/13 K/BB in 51 innings.
It's not just Parker Messick creating headlines in Tallahassee. While not quite Rocker-Leiter, Bryce Hubbart makes Messick-Hubbart the most fearsome one-two punch in college baseball right now as they've combined for a 2.88 ERA and 160 strikeouts to 25 walks in 106.1 innings. Hubbart, like Messick, doesn't quite light up the radar guns with his low 90's fastball, but it's an invisiball with tremendous riding action that hitters just can't seem to pick up (and he's hit 96 in the past as well). He adds a pair of breaking balls in a curveball and a sweepier slider that have both been inconsistent (the slider more so than the curveball), but they flash plus at their best and he also has a solid changeup at his disposal. Despite an uptempo delivery, the skinny 6'1" lefty has improved his control and is filling up the strike zone more often in 2022, dropping his walk rate from 9.5% a year ago to 6.0% this spring. Hubbart is also a student of the game who understands and has worked to incorporate new developments in pitching development. If the Nationals can help him reach his peak velocity more often and get more consistent with his breaking stuff, I think they could have a legit impact starter here.

OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS [NV] (#37)
Carl Crawford's son is one of the toolsiest players in this year's class, a notch below Elijah Green but still extremely impressive. Justin has had some first round buzz this spring and may not be available at pick #45, but he would be a great get if he is still on the board. As you'd expect from someone whose father stole 480 bases in a fifteen year big league career, the younger Crawford is a plus-plus runner who can change games with his speed. With a rangy 6'3" frame, he also has the chance to grow into plus power and he's been showing it off more often this spring. My main concern is with his hit tool, especially around offspeed pitches which he struggled with over the summer, but he's been better in that regard this spring and has shown enough to warrant a role of the dice early in the draft. There is a ton of upside here and I think it would be worth buying him out of his Louisiana State commitment, though it will be expensive.

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the ACC

2021 draftees: 63. Top school: North Carolina State (8)
2021 preseason writeup (published 10/27/2020)

Top draftees:
1-1, Pirates: C Henry Davis (Louisville)
1-15, Brewers: OF Sal Frelick (Boston College)
1-24, Braves: RHP Ryan Cusick (Wake Forest)
CBA-35, Reds: C Matheu Nelson (Florida State)
2-52, Marlins: SS Cody Morissette (Boston College)
2-53, Reds: LHP Andrew Abbott (Virginia)
2-60, A's: 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia)

It was another banner year for the ACC, which saw three players drafted in the first round including first overall pick Henry Davis, and eight drafted by the end of the second competitive balance round. Every school had at least one player drafted, while five different schools (NC State, Louisville, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia) had at least six draftees. This year already has another trio with firm first round aspirations ready to go, with quite a few more knocking on the door. While this year is more balanced than last year's hitter-heavy class, in which nine of the first eleven draftees were position players, it's hard not to notice an especially exciting group of power bats. On the mound, we'll get to watch a competition between Florida State lefties Bryce Hubbart and Parker Messick every weekend, as both have first round aspirations with Hubbart having jumped ahead on the heels of a strong summer. Below are the top ten prospects in the ACC heading into the 2022 season.

1. C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 8/3/2001. Hometown: Pasadena, CA.
2021: 9 HR, .318/.379/.550, 1 SB, 41/17 K/BB in 52 games.
Kevin Parada was the best position player prospect to reach campus a year ago, having ranked 47th on my 2020 draft board out of Loyola High School in Los Angeles. It's hard to reach those sky-high expectations at times, especially early on, but Parada hit the ground running in Atlanta and has only built on his stock with a massive freshman campaign. Just 52 games into his college career, he has a tough luck third team all-ACC nod (stuck behind first overall pick Henry Davis and fellow Golden Spikes candidate Matheu Nelson) as well as a Baseball America second team freshman all American nod. It's a really, really complete profile that fits right near the top of the draft, and because he's eligible as an older sophomore, he won't turn 21 until shortly after the draft and is the second youngest player on this list. Starting with the bat, Parada takes extremely professional at bats at a young age, especially shining in his ability to make adjustments and grind out at bats. Maybe you can get a pitch or two by him, but you're going to have to be perfect to finish him off. The LA product puts that approach to good use with above average power from his sturdy frame, getting to it easily and consistently with a simple but strong right handed swing that even popped a home run off second overall pick Jack Leiter in the Nashville regional. If there is one critique for Parada's offensive profile, it's that he could use to be a bit more selective at the plate and draw a few more walks, though that's really nitpicking for a 20 year old catcher who just slugged .550 in the ACC with a pretty strong 17.2% strikeout rate. Behind the plate, he faced questions as a high schooler about his ability to stick, but he's gotten much smoother back there after just one year in Atlanta and now should be at least average defensively. He's a smart player who will be able to handle the soft skills of catching in addition to the hard skills, and his strong arm helps keep the running game in check. If the draft were today, this would be a top ten profile that would come into play pretty quickly after the first couple of picks, projecting for 20+ home runs annually with good on-base percentages from a premium position. Similar production in 2022 with perhaps a few more walks could make him the first college bat off the board.

2. OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 2/13/2001. Hometown: Bristol, TN.
2021: 11 HR, .345/.415/.621, 9 SB, 48/17 K/BB in 51 games.
Between Ian Seymour, Carson Taylor, Packy Naughton, and Mark Zagunis, Virginia Tech has had some moderate early round talent in recent years, but it's certainly not on par with most other ACC programs. In 2022, however, the Hokies have a chance to produce not just a first rounder, but a potential top of the draft talent in Gavin Cross. At this point, he may have the most potent bat in the country, period. Ideally built for a power hitter at 6'3", he actually reminds me of Juan Soto in a few ways, including in his frame, swing, feel for the barrel, and raw power. Coming from the base, Cross gets his barrel into the zone early and keeps it there for a long time, enabling him to make consistent contact even if his timing isn't perfect. Once he does make contact, he can and will absolutely obliterate the baseball, crushing screaming line drives with regularity. Watching him a lot in 2021, I felt like I never saw him hit a ball softly, even hitting into the most consistently loud outs of any player I saw. It's plus-plus raw power that he gets to in games, though his approach could use some work. He again reminds me of Soto in the way he locks in on pitches from the hand to the plate, but at this point, he lacks the generational discipline of his Nationals counterpart. Rather, Cross is a very aggressive hitter who tracks pitches well then unleashes on anything he likes, still making consistent contact but limiting his walks perhaps a bit more than you'd like and not always getting the pitch to drive. In the field, it's a corner outfield profile with a chance to be a solid defender in right field because of his strong left arm, but everyone knows they're drafting the bat here. I see Cross having more offensive upside than Kevin Parada, with the potential for 30+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages, though he does need to hone in that approach a bit and he won't provide nearly as much defensive value. As a Virginia Tech alum, I'm very excited to watch him go to work again this spring.

3. LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'11", 190 lbs. Born 6/28/2001. Hometown: Windermere, FL.
2021: 6-5, 3.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 94/29 K/BB in 71 innings.
The 2022 Florida State weekend rotation will be as fun as it gets in college baseball, with lefties Bryce Hubbart and Parker Messick set to duke it out for the title of best pitching prospect in the ACC while highly regarded underclassmen Carson Montgomery and Jackson Baumeister will be among those vying for the third spot. While Messick was the team's best pitcher in 2021, it's Hubbart that has now pulled ahead as the frontrunner to be drafted first. He was strong albeit unspectacular as a sophomore this past spring, but absolutely took off in the Cape Cod League with a 0.87 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings. In fact, after allowing three runs in his first start, he locked in and allowed just one unearned run over his final five starts (spanning 27 innings) against elite competition. Hubbart sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it's steadily creeped up and he's been showing more and more 93's, 94's, and higher as of late and has a chance to sit comfortably in the mid 90's when all is said and done. He rips off a wicked curveball that shows true plus, while his newer slider had the look of a plus pitch at its best on the Cape as well. Add in a solid changeup, and you have one of the best four pitch mixes in the country. He's variously listed between 5'11" and 6'1" depending on where you look, but regardless, he's not the most imposing presence on the mound physically. However, with long arms and legs for his size, the Orlando-area native still offers projection, while his lightning fast right arm adds to the upside. He shows solid average command most of the time, though he does a better job hitting spots with his fastball than with his offspeed stuff, the latter of which still misses plenty of bats simply due to its movement. In pro ball, hanging breaking balls get hammered even when they break like Hubbart's, so that's on the to-do list. To top it all off, he's young for the class with a June birthday, a big positive for some teams. There is serious top of the rotation upside here, and he's currently firmly in the first round picture with the chance to be the first college arm drafted if he pitches this spring like he did over the summer.

4. LHP Parker Messick, Florida State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6', 225 lbs. Born 10/26/2000. Hometown: Plant City, FL.
2021: 8-2, 3.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 126/23 K/BB in 90 innings.
Bryce Hubbart's exceptional Cape run may have vaulted him ahead for now, it's Parker Messick who has the longest track record of success in the Florida State rotation. Messick was lights out in six relief appearances as a freshman (11.2 IP, 1 ER, 19/2 K/BB) and followed that up with a great sophomore season, sandwiched around a very strong run through the Florida Collegiate Summer League in 2020. While Hubbart is projectable and looks to continue trending up, Messick is much more about the now-product and figures to stay more or less the same. That's fine, because he's already a very good pitcher. The Tampa-area product sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 93-94, but it plays up because he hides the ball well and pitches with plenty of deception. He brings a full set of secondaries led by an above average changeup, though both the curveball and slider are consistently average and flash above as well. They lack power, but they show good shape and he consistently locates them to freeze hitters or send them flailing. Messick repeats his delivery well and has the look of a durable starting pitcher, with the ceiling of a #3 guy but a very high likelihood of becoming at least a #4 or a #5. It's probably an early second round projection right now, with the chance to pitch himself into the back of the first round if he can sharpen one of his breaking balls just a little bit. Though he and Hubbart are both Florida State lefties of similar height, that's where the similarities end and opposing lineups will have to be ready for two very different, equally difficult matchups every weekend.

5. LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 175 lbs. Born 10/17/2000. Hometown: Fort Myers, FL.
2021: 1-1, 2.22 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 75/8 K/BB in 44.2 innings.
Carson Palmquist is bound to split scouts as to his upside, because the results are undeniable but there just aren't many big league starting pitchers similar to him. He's coming off an exceptional spring out of the Miami bullpen in which he allowed just 34 baserunners in 44.2 innings (that's a .202 opponents on-base percentage if you're keeping track) and continued to shine with the US Collegiate National Team over the summer, and in 2022 he seems to be a frontrunner for ACC Pitcher of the Year. A true lefty sidearmer, his fastball has been steadily ticking up, from the upper 80's when he first got to Miami to the low 90's this spring and touching as high as 96. He adds a short, plus slider that's really difficult to pick up, as well as a solid changeup. The 6'3" lefty commands everything well and dominates the strike zone, controlling at bats from start to finish and leaving hitters more than a little frustrated when they just can't track his stuff. Palmquist probably comes with the highest floor in this conference, as a lefty sidearm reliever that touches 96 with a plus slider and command is already valuable as it is, but there are questions as to his upside. He averaged roughly five outs per appearance in 2021 and never went more than three innings, and there just aren't many sidearm starting pitchers in the big league as it is. His operation is comparable to Chris Sale, but Sale is an exception, not the rule. Now, if anybody can make that uphill climb to becoming a full time MLB starter from this starting point, it's him. It will be really interesting to see how Miami handles him in 2022, and if he does pick up 60-70 innings in the Hurricanes rotation without a drop off in effectiveness, it will be a first round profile.

6. RHP Henry Williams, Duke.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 200 lbs. Born 9/18/2001. Hometown: Darien, CT.
2021: 3-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 45/10 K/BB in 37 innings.
Unlike the five names above him on this list, Henry Williams does not have a big track record either in the ACC or in summer ball. Instead, he's more of a projection play than anything else, but someone who many in the industry think is heading for a breakout in 2022. Williams only made one unsuccessful relief appearance in 2020, then was a steady member of the Duke rotation for the first month and a half of the 2021 season before going down with arm soreness in April, after which he only made one more appearance in the Knoxville regional. For now, his fastball sits in the low 90's, only topping out around 93, while his slider and changeup are solid to above average pitches but not true bat-missers yet. Projection is the name of the game, as the 6'5" righty has a ton of room to fill out his ideal pitcher's frame and figures to add significant power to his stuff. He has an extremely loose, athletic delivery that he repeats consistently, giving him above average command at a young age while simultaneously portending plenty of opportunity to add velocity as he gets stronger. The Connecticut product also gets high spin rates on all of his pitches, giving extra life to his fastball and sharpening the bite on his slider. To top it off, he's extremely young for the class and won't turn 21 until September, making him the youngest player on this list despite being a grade ahead of #1 ranked Kevin Parada. Everything in this profile, from the size and frame to the athleticism, present stuff, command, and youth, points to an ace in the making. His ceiling is as high as anybody on this list and he could be the first one drafted come next July, but projection is just projection until you actually make good on it so the to-do list is also longer than most other names here. It would be nice to see his fastball creep into that 94-95 range more often rather than sitting closer to 90, as it would be to see him get a few more whiffs on that slider, and teams will also want to see him last a full season in the Blue Devil rotation given he only has 37.2 career innings to his name. Check off those boxes and he could go in the top ten.

7. OF Dylan Brewer, Clemson.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'2", 180 lbs. Born 9/29/2000. Hometown: Latta, SC.
2021: 10 HR, .207/.332/.420, 6 SB, 65/29 K/BB in 49 games.
Dylan Brewer is one of the bigger boom or bust candidates in the conference. He has been very inconsistent at Clemson and struck out in 30% of his plate appearances this spring, but had a loud summer in the Coastal Plain League and slashed .350/.444/.608 while cutting his strikeout rate in half. Brewer is as tooled up as anyone in the conference, with plus raw power functioning as his carrying tool. He generates high exit velocities with long limbs and a strong frame, showing a smooth left handed hack. That swing can get long at times and he struggles with offspeed stuff, so for now the hit tool is well below average, but a patient approach and good pitch selection ability bode well for his ability to improve on it. An above average runner, he has a chance to be above average in right field and provide value on both sides of the ball. Going into 2022, scouts will be watching the swing and miss in Brewer's game closely, and if he can get his strikeout rate under 25% or so, he could go in the top two rounds. While the Coastal Plain League isn't quite the Cape, it still provides strong competition and his exceptional performance there bodes well for his ability to continue to improve as a hitter. He has power, speed, a professional approach, and is trending upward, so it's just time for those pure bat to ball skills to come around and tie the whole profile together.

8. OF Dalton Rushing, Louisville.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11, 230 lbs. Born 2/21/2001. Hometown: Brighton, TN.
2021: 4 HR, .254/.342/.463, 1 SB, 21/8 K/BB in 28 games.
Louisville consistently has one of the deepest lineups in the ACC and therefore the country, so to this point, Dalton Rushing has not seen the field much. He's played just 38 games over two seasons and showed well (.269/.364/.495), but it was his time on the Cape that really boosted his stock. This summer, he hit .319/.406/.543 with seven home runs against the best competition in college baseball, and he'll hope to carry that momentum into a season where he figures to get more consistent playing time. He shows above average raw power from the left side, a product of big time strength in his compact 5'11" frame as well as a simple swing that helps him find the barrel consistently in games. As a bat-first prospect without supplemental tools, pressure will fall on his hit tool, which has been inconsistent so far. While he's never had trouble producing against any level of competition, there has always been some lingering swing and miss in his game and scouts will want to see him drop his strikeout rate preferably below 20% in 2022. Rushing is a below average athlete who will be limited to first base or left field in pro ball, so continued strikeout concerns would make some teams very wary of betting on his bat. The good news is he actually showed less swing and miss on the Cape than he did in the ACC, so he has every chance to carry that progress over to his junior season and show a bat everyone can fall in love with. There is some Zach DeLoach in this profile as a left handed hitting, bat-first prospect that didn't produce much as an underclassman before breaking out on the Cape. At best, Rushing could hit 20+ home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, so he could hit his way into the second round very easily.

9. OF Chris Newell, Virginia.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 4/23/2001. Hometown: Newtown Square, PA.
2021: 5 HR, .258/.336/.397, 13 SB, 75/17 K/BB in 58 games.
This profile reminds me a bit of Jeren Kendall from his Vanderbilt days, except that Chris Newell is five inches taller. Newell was an ultra talented prep coming out of the suburban Philadelphia high school ranks in 2019, where he could have cracked the top couple of rounds, but made it to campus at Virginia and promptly hit .407/.545/.729 in his abbreviated 18 game freshman season. However, after setting that extremely high bar for himself, his sophomore season was a bit more uneven and it took eight hits (including two home runs) in his final fourteen at bats to bump his final line up to .258/.336/.397. After riding that little hot stretch to salvage the season, he took that momentum into the Cape Cod League where he slashed a very respectable .256/.307/.488 with five home runs in 21 games. Newell, like Dylan Brewer above him on this list, is one of the toolsiest players in the conference, if with perhaps a bit more athleticism and a bit less power. He does show above average power from the left side, a product of the twitchy strength in his 6'3" frame and a healthy uppercut hack, and he tapped that power with wood bats on the Cape. He's a very aggressive hitter, leading to a below average hit tool and an extremely streaky bat, so that will be very important to monitor in 2022. Newell's steep swing compounds those hit tool questions as well, and he struck out in a third of his plate appearances last spring and 28% on the Cape. When he's seeing the ball well, he looks like he could fit very close to the top of the draft and at his best ranks within the top tier of prospects in this conference, but he goes through prolonged stretches where he really struggles to make an impact at the plate. He offsets those slumps a bit by providing value on defense, with plus speed and a strong arm making him an asset in center field and far and away the best defender on this list. There's more variation in this profile than most, with an easy shot at hitting himself into the first round but perhaps an equal chance he finds himself in the third or fourth round after another spring with 25%+ strikeout rates.

10. LHP Michael Prosecky, Louisville.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 2/28/2001. Hometown: Westchester, IL.
2021: 0-0, 8.31 ERA, 2.65 WHIP, 10/7 K/BB in 8.2 innings.
Like Chris Newell, Michael Prosecky came to campus as one of the highest rated recruits in the country. However, he's managed just 26.2 innings so far in two years at Louisville and has been wholly unremarkable, especially this spring when he allowed nearly two hits and a walk per inning. However, it looks like he found something on the Cape, where he posted a 1.61 ERA and a 30/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.1 innings in a long relief role, and he's carried that momentum into fall practice with reports that he's looking much better than his first two seasons. His fastball sits in the low 90's but reportedly touched 97 this fall, and he backs that up with a full arsenal. Prosecky's curveball stands out as his best secondary, an above average pitch that has gotten much more consistent, while he adds a slider and changeup that both flash above average as well. Throughout his time at Louisville, the 6'3" lefty has fluctuated between struggling to find the strike zone and getting hit hard when his pitches catch to much plate, but he has an easy, repeatable delivery that has his command trending in the right direction. It's still probably fringe average until we see him prove it more in ACC play, but it's at least a half grade better than it was a year ago and he has a chance for above average command down the line. The Chicago-area product has a lot to prove in 2022, having never completed four innings either at Louisville or on the Cape in 2021, which is why he ranks so low on this list, but that could change quickly.

Honorable mentions (with 2021 stats):
3B Luke Gold (Boston College): 9 HR, .316/.364/.576, 2 SB, 31/13 K/BB in 44 games.
LHP Nate Savino (Virginia): 3-3, 3.79 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 34/16 K/BB in 54.2 innings.
RHP Zach Maxwell (Georgia Tech): 2-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 56/41 K/BB in 32 innings.
This list is only supposed to be ten, but three players are really close in my opinion and find themselves in the same tier as Dalton Rushing, Chris Newell, and Michael Prosecky. Luke Gold flew under the radar a bit behind big 2021 bats Sal Frelick and Cody Morissette at Boston College last year, but it's his turn to continue what's shaping up to be a surprising draft dynasty in Chestnut Hill. He lacks big tools, but is simply a professional hitter that gets the job done at the plate and showed some interesting power with six home runs on the Cape (while slashing .267/.363/.523). Gold has a simple, direct right handed swing which combines with that strength to provide consistent, usual game power even if he's not battering the parking lot in batting practice, and strong feel for the barrel gets him on base very consistently. He doesn't walk much because he makes consistent contact early in the count. Defensively, he looks like a fringy second or third baseman, with first base a possibility. Nate Savino is one of the more well-known names in the conference after reclassifying out of the 2020 draft to enroll early at Virginia, though like many other Virginia pitchers lately, his progress has stalled in Charlottesville. While he's been very effective for a teenager and his fastball has hit 95, it can also sit around 90 at times. He throws an above average slider and a fringe average changeup, but together, he just hasn't missed many bats. Savino has average command, but given his extreme youth (he won't even turn 20 until January), there's a very good chance he ends up above average in that regard. The 6'3" lefty might have been a first round pick in 2020 if he hadn't reclassified, so he'll look to recapture that pedigree this spring as one of the youngest four year college players available. Lastly, Zach Maxwell has the best pure stuff in the conference, but he has also walked 57 batters in 46.1 innings at Georgia Tech so far. Maxwell is a huge 6'6", 280 pound righty with a mid 90's fastball that has touched triple digits, adding a vicious slider with spin rates near 3000 that looks like a plus-plus pitch when he locates it. At this point, he has very poor command with a jerky delivery and a lack of coordination in his massive frame, so at bats can be very uncomfortable. Barring a transformation in 2022 and having never thrown more than three innings in an appearance at Georgia Tech, it's unlikely the Atlanta-area product ever becomes a starter in pro ball, but if he can improve his command to even a 40 grade, he has closer upside. There are some shades of pre-2020 Bobby Miller here, but Maxwell has an even more extreme profile with more size and less command.