2021 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

I really like this Reds' class, and I had a lot of fun writing about it. They had a ton of early picks due to losing Trevor Bauer as well as winning a CBA pick for small market teams, meaning they got to select three times in the first 35. All three of those picks were hitters, and in fact they took bats with five of their first six picks before pivoting towards arms in the later rounds. Performance was a big focus here and they were not scared of older players, and by the end of September, seven of their first nine picks will have turned 22 and Matheu Nelson will be approaching 23. I really liked a lot of these picks, with first rounder Matt McLain being my favorite even though it took a huge over slot bonus to get him. In the later rounds, I really liked taking a chance on super-athlete Justice Thompson in the sixth round.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-17: SS Matt McLain, UCLA. My rank: #9.
Matt McLain has had a very well-documented amateur career, and it began and ended with a first round selection. Originally thought of as more of a second rounder for the 2018 draft at Beckman High School in California, he rode a hot spring to a back-of-the-first round selection by the Diamondbacks, only to turn them down when they couldn't meet his bonus demands. His freshman season at UCLA was a forgettable one, as he hit just .203/.276/.355 over 61 games, but he's been trending back up ever since. After a hot .397/.422/.621 start to his 2020, he raked his way through summer ball and rode a strong second half to a .333/.434/.579 line, nine home runs, and an even 34/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games this spring. The stats aren't a mirage, either, as he really has done a lot to improve his game. He came into Westwood as an undersized, aggressive hitter who lacked much impact, but learned to barrel the ball better as a sophomore. Then this spring, he came out with a much more disciplined approach and stopped chasing as often as he had in the past, and at the same time started impacting the ball significantly more. That led to me flipping from being relatively low on him coming into the season (he ranked as low as #23 on my board in early April) to becoming a big proponent of his upside. The Southern California native now profiles for above average power despite his skinny 5'11" frame, with plenty of twitchy strength and athleticism that he has learned to engage in his quick right handed swing. I'm less worried about the swing and miss now, and I think he has a shot at .350+ on-base percentages to go with 15-25 home runs per season. A plus runner, he can stretch for extra bases with regularity, though he didn't steal that often at UCLA and only came away with 16 career stolen bases in 121 games. His athleticism helps him a lot at shortstop, but to this point he relies on that athleticism to get the job done and he doesn't quite have the quick, smooth actions of a guy like third rounder Jose Torres. The industry is split on whether he'll stick, especially considering his inconsistency from game to game, but the Reds likely think he will and believe they can help channel that athleticism into more consistent defense there. The bat would profile great at shortstop, but he will still hit plenty enough to profile as a regular at third base. McLain signed this time for $4.63 million, which was just over one million above slot value.

1C-30: OF Jay Allen, John Carroll Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #60.
The industry has been relatively split on Jay Allen, but he had a lot of fans and it looks like the Reds were one of them. Allen is a three sport star who had a chance to play football at Florida and has also shown potential on the basketball court, but his future has clearly been in baseball and the Reds solidified that with this pick. He has a powerful 6'3" frame that produces above average raw power for now and could get to plus with some mechanical tweaks, and he's trending in the right direction with his bat anyways. He's honed his approach at the plate significantly and wasn't quite so much of a free swinger this spring as he had been in the past, and he did a better job of repeating his A swing rather than getting out in front or chasing. As you might expect from a Division I-caliber quarterback and talented basketball player, the Fort Pierce, Florida native is a supreme athlete, but he didn't quite show his top speed this spring, the only tool that regressed for him. Proponents such as the Reds believe that could have to do with the grind of switching between three sports, and that focusing on one sport and one set of skills will get him back to showing those plus wheels. Additionally, the fact that he has shown this much potential in baseball despite not completely focusing on it is impressive in its own right, and Cincinnati also thinks that he could be in for a huge breakout once he gets into their development system. Allen has plenty of ceiling, but there's a long way to go. He signed for $2.4 million, which was about $30,000 above slot value.

CBA-35: C Matheu Nelson, Florida State. My rank: #40.
We'll ignore the fact that this is about the worst way you can spell Matthew and just focus on the fact that Matheu Nelson is a fantastic player. He was eligible as a sophomore last year due to being a full year older than most of his high school graduating class (similar to Jack Leiter and Colson Montgomery), but didn't garner enough interest to be seriously considered in the shortened draft. That changed this year when he absolutely torched ACC pitching to the tune of 23 home runs, a .330/.436/.773 slash line, and a 58/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games, enough to bring home ACC Player of the Year honors. He doesn't have huge physical tools, but simply found the barrel time and time and time again this spring with a quick, simple right handed swing. At first, evaluators were waiting for pitchers to adjust to his breakout, but he just kept hitting and hitting and hitting to the point where he just forced his name up boards. There is some swing and miss in the Tampa-area native's game (24.5% this year), but it didn't hamper him in the slightest against strong ACC pitching this spring and I'm inclined to believe it won't be an issue at the next level either. Behind the plate, he plays with a ton of energy and should be at least average, so it's not just a bat-first profile where people think he may have to move off the position. He's a fun one to watch no doubt, and has the ceiling of an every day catcher who hits for power and gets on base, which there are not a lot of right now. Because he's already 22 and a half, there is a bit of a lower floor given the swing and miss, and if it does crop up in pro ball, he should be at least a platoon guy or a power hitting backup. Nelson signed right at slot value for $2.1 million.

2-53: LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia. My rank: #61.
Andrew Abbott, like Matheu Nelson, was undrafted last year, but he was very much on the radar after three strong seasons in the UVA bullpen. He transitioned to starting this year and unlike many other relievers-turned-starters, he had tremendous success, putting up a 2.87 ERA and a 162/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings, the 162 strikeouts leading all non-Vanderbilt arms by 19. Abbott's stuff held firm during the transition, and he shows a low 90's fastball, a plus hammer curveball, and an improved changeup that's now solidly an average pitch. After showing inconsistent command out of the bullpen, he filled up the strike zone as a starter and effectively worked all three pitches to his spots. He has a bit of a crossfire delivery that puts angle on his pitches, especially adding to his curveball's depth. Additionally, teams love his work ethic and demeanor on the mound, as the southern Virginia native loves to go to war with the opponent and relishes pressure and competition. Still, I do have some minor concerns over his ability to stick in the rotation. In my looks, his low 90's fastball dipped into the upper 80's later in his starts, and he's not the most physical at a skinny six feet tall. I will say though that the progress he made with that changeup and command do give him a better shot, though he did turn 22 in June. He signed for $1.3 million, which was about $70,000 below slot value.

3-89: SS Jose Torres, North Carolina State. My rank: #63.
This is another pick I really like. Jose Torres has long stood out for his defense at shortstop, then surprised evaluators by coming out and hitting .333/.369/.533 over the shortened season. His numbers held up over a full season this year, slashing .289/.343/.533 with ten home runs and a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He shows great bat to ball skills both in and out of the zone, which helps him keep his strikeouts down despite a very aggressive approach. There's some power in his rangy 6' frame that he is learning to tap, giving him the chance to be a multifaceted hitter. The defense remains his calling card, as the Dominican (by way of Baltimore) shows great range and a very strong arm with the ability to execute routine plays in addition to tough ones. He'll certainly stick at shortstop despite fringy speed, and if both hit enough to warrant a starting job, he could be the one to push first rounder Matt McLain off of shortstop. When you have a plus defender like that at a premium position, you'll take any offense you can get, and Torres provides that. If he can get a little more patient at the plate and add a little strength, he has the chance to pop 10-15 home runs or more per season while showing relatively high, batting average-driven on-base percentages. If he remains a hyper-aggressive hitter like he is now, the contact skills and defense should be enough to make him a useful utility infielder. Torres signed for $622,500, which was $45,400 below slot value.

4-119: 1B Ruben Ibarra, San Jose State. Unranked.
I haven't confirmed this, but Ruben Ibarra might have been the heaviest player drafted this year at a massive 6'5", 290 pounds. As you'd expect, he's an absolute slugger and hit .381/.503/.850 with 14 home runs and a 24/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games this spring. Ibarra's power doesn't come from elite bat speed or an ultra-optimized kinetic chain, rather, he simply wallops baseballs into oblivion with huge strength that doesn't require an overly complicated swing. The Watsonville, California native also shows strong plate discipline and draws a ton of walks without swinging and missing too much, something you don't always see from these brute force sluggers. As you might expect though, he will be limited to first base at best in pro ball. Ibarra likely profiles as a platoon or bench bat who can provide some thump, though hitters find playing time and he's a hitter. He signed for $172,500, which was $310,500 below slot value, and went 0-2 in his first game in the ACL. 

5-150: RHP Thomas Farr, South Carolina. My rank: #181.
Thomas Farr began his career at Northwest Florida State then transferred to South Carolina, where a strong but shortened junior season (1.72 ERA, 14/5 K/BB) put him on the map for the 2020 draft. He probably would have needed a few more rounds than the five there ended up being to feel like he had a good shot at being drafted, but he didn't need them this year and went in the fifth round after posting a 3.87 ERA and a 90/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.2 innings. Farr brings power stuff from the right side with a low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 97, and it gets on you quick. His power curve is his best secondary and flashes plus with hard bite, and he adds a more ordinary slider and changeup as well. Strong and durable, the 6' righty is generally around the strike zone but can be prone to walk some guys here and there, partially owing to a relatively high effort delivery with some late head whack. To me, the Atlanta-area native probably fits in the bullpen due to the lack of a third above average pitch, the fringy command, and the delivery, in addition to the fact that he turned 22 in April, but he could be very good there when he gets to focus on just the fastball and slider. If Cincinnati does go that round, I could see him working his way through the minors relatively quickly. Farr signed for $297,500, which was $59,600 below slot value.

6-180: OF Justice Thompson, North Carolina. My rank: #97.
Here is another pick I really like. Justice Thompson wasn't the most famous name on the Florida JUCO circuit when he was at Northwest Florida State (where he was teammates with Farr in 2019), then did not stand out at UNC's fall practices in 2020. However, he thrust himself into the national spotlight in his first ACC game on February 25th, ironically against Reds second round pick Andrew Abbott and the UVA Cavaliers. He doubled in his first at bat, then dropped down a bunt single in his second, stole second base, and came back around for his third at bat with a home run, all against Abbott. Thompson brought his glove, too, making a couple of great catches. He eventually cooled down and finished the season at .304/.386/.444 with seven home runs and a 67/25 strikeout to walk ratio, still strong numbers against a tough ACC schedule. The Tampa native stands out first for his supreme athleticism, as he's an easy plus runner that can (and did) wreak havoc on both sides of the ball. There's plenty of raw power in his 6'4" frame as well, though his simple, line drive-oriented swing doesn't always help him tap it. He hits the ball plenty hard, so some slight tweaks could help him tap it more consistently in pro ball. One drawback with Thompson is plate discipline, as he can get aggressive and has a long history of swinging through both hittable and unhittable pitches, though that didn't seem to bite him this year with his .304/.380/.449 ACC-only slash line nearly mirroring his .304/.386/.444 overall line. Working in his favor is age, as he only turned 21 three days before the draft and has plenty of time to figure out who he is as a ballplayer. There's plenty of ceiling here, especially by sixth round standards, if the Reds can unlock it. He signed for $250,000, which was $22,500 below slot value.

7-210: RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State. My rank: #114.
Kevin Abel has been around a long time, and by now most know his story. He rose to stardom as a true freshman in 2018, when he put Oregon State on his shoulders and looked like the best pitcher on the planet carving his way through the NCAA Tournament, finishing it off with a complete game shutout of Arkansas to deliver the CWS trophy to Corvallis. His path to the Reds in the seventh round of 2021 since then, however, has been anything but straight. Abel lasted just three starts in 2019 before going down with Tommy John surgery, then the pandemic ended the 2020 season when he was nearing the end of his rehab. He still earned some buzz in the third to fifth round range for the 2020 draft, but no team was quite comfortable enough to meet his asking price. Healthy in 2021, he looked like a different pitcher. After showing a low 90's fastball, a big, loopy curveball, and a plus changeup with solid average command as a freshman, he saw that fastball dip into the upper 80's this year but ironically he tightened up the curveball and retained the strong changeup. The command was also a full grade worse from 2018, and he finished an up and down season with a 3.62 ERA and a 109/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. It's a really weird profile in that teams don't often covet sub-90 fastballs with fringy command, especially when the man throwing them is already 22 and lacks projection, but of course Abel is a special case after having thrown a combined 16.1 innings over the previous two seasons. The 6'1" righty still missed a ton of bats by sequencing his pitches effectively in addition to the fact that his secondary stuff is, to put it simply, really good, in fact better than it was in 2018. The Reds will hope their pro development system can get Abel's command back to average or perhaps a tick better, and helping him build up enough strength to get that fastball on the right side of 90 will be important as well. If he can do both, then the Reds found a legitimate major league starter in the seventh round, though failure to do one will push him to the bullpen. Fortunately, the San Diego native has never been one to shy away from pressure and proved it by pitching at his best under the bright College World Series lights at 19 years old. He signed for $172,500, which was $40,800 below slot value, though he likely won't move as quickly as most 22 year olds.

11-330: RHP Shawn Guilliams, Central Florida JC. Unranked.
Shawn Guilliams trended up all spring long, but the Reds are hoping they're still buying low on a very talented arm. Growing up between Ocala and Orlando, he didn't receive a ton of interest in high school, but his stuff all ticked up at the College of Central Florida and he put together a 2.41 ERA and a 49/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings. Guilliams now sits comfortably in the low 90's and got up to 95-96 at times, adding a plus curveball with late bite as well as a newer slider and changeup. All of his stuff is extremely high spin, with the curveball popping the 3,000 RPM line and the fastball regularly sitting above 2,500. Previously showing a high effort delivery in high school, the 6'1" righty has cleaned up his delivery a bit and showed close to average command, which at 18 years old in JUCO ball is impressive. There's still some work to be done but all of the puzzle pieces are there, and had the Reds not swooped in first, he could have turned into a monster and a high draft pick at Florida, where he was committed. Guilliams, who only just turned 19 in June, instead signed for $272,500, of which $147,500 counts against the Reds' bonus pool.

2020 Draft: Top 10 Undrafted College Players

Every year, a couple highly regarded college prospects here and there decide to stick around an extra year, most recently guys like Mississippi State's Jake Mangum and LSU's Zach Watson and Zack Hess. This year, it obviously happened to a lot more guys, so we'll have a ton of high level talent not only heading to campus, but returning to campus next year. Below I walk through the top college prospects on my draft list to go undrafted and return to school.

Nine out of ten names are pitchers, which is a testament to the incredible depth of college pitching in this year's class. It wasn't just that run we saw in the back half of the first round (Jarvis, Cavalli, Shuster, Miller, etc.), but a truly deep class that went well past the top 100 names. With so many options available, teams didn't have to take risks on upside plays like Tommy Mace or Gavin Williams, and these kids decided to return to school to bet on themselves. Guys like Williams, Brandon Birdsell, and Trenton Denholm will still be age-appropriate come draft day, though many others will be older than their competition and Mason Erla will be a few months shy of his 24th birthday by the time the 2021 draft rolls around.

1. RHP Tommy Mace, Florida (my rank: 69)
Florida had two pitchers with draft aspirations in the shortened 2020 draft, but both Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich elected to return to school. Mace was the top college player on my list to go undrafted, with the chance to have gone as high as the second round. He was a well known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, a classic projection right hander as a 6'6" beanpole. Three years later, he's made some incremental progress, but Mace clearly believes (he would prefer the verb "knows") he has more in the tank. His fastball sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96, while his cutter/slider hybrid is an effective, above average offspeed pitch and his changeup gives him a third reliable offering. It's a fairly ordinary package, but there is still a lot of projection left in his lanky frame and his stuff has steadily gotten sharper throughout his career with the Gators. After putting up a 4.85 ERA and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings over his first two seasons, he improved to a 1.67 ERA and a 26/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings this year, including an excellent outing against a very tough Miami lineup. As a slightly above average strike thrower, he's not nearly as raw as most projection arms, and his competitive nature helps him significantly. He'll return as the ace of one of the best rotations in college baseball next year with Leftwich and rising-sophomore Hunter Barco, perhaps second behind only Vanderbilt's one-two punch of Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. Mace could have easily pitched his way into the top 50 picks with a strong run through SEC play this year, so he'll hope to do that next year. Pre-draft profile here.

2. RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina (my rank: 74)
Gavin Williams, like Tommy Mace, was a projectable 6'6" high school arm in 2017, hailing from Fayetteville, North Carolina. He hasn't made quite as much progress as Mace during his time at East Carolina, having only thrown 68 innings for the Pirates with a 3.57 ERA and a 70/32 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. That said, he's also eight months younger and won't be much older than most of the regular juniors next year. He throws a premium mid 90's fastball that can touch triple digits in shorter stints, and with his now-filled-out 6'6", 240 pound frame, that velocity comes out pretty naturally. He adds a big, slow curveball in the low to mid 70's, one with great shape but which needs to add power. There's an above average changeup as well, which rounds out his arsenal nicely. The command is sort of shaky, but it's not terrible, and he really hasn't been on the mound all that much anyways. More consistent innings in the ECU rotation next year could do wonders for his stock, and I could see him pitching himself into the top 50 picks pretty easily with a strong stint in the rotation. He probably projects as a reliever, but the upside is certainly there and I wouldn't rule him out as a starter if he makes the necessary adjustments. One big thing he could do would be to add power to that curveball, which he is certainly capable of with his arm strength. Pre-draft profile here.

3. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State (my rank: 78)
Seth Lonsway marks a third straight pitcher who was a big name for the 2017 draft out of high school. Lonsway grew up in Celina, Ohio, a small town just off the Indiana border, and after sitting out the 2018 season, he's become a mainstay in the Buckeyes rotation. This year, he put up one of the most unique stat lines in college baseball, holding a 3.00 ERA and striking out 42 batters in just 18 innings (more than half of those he faced!) but also walked 18 in that same span, including eight in his final start against Stetson. Lonsway has an electric left arm that sits in the low to mid 90's on his fastball, getting up to 96 with relative ease. He adds a power curveball that misses bats in bunches, as well as a more lateral slider and a solid changeup. The ball explodes out of his hand and has completely confounded college hitters, but he really struggles to repeat his release point and that has led to massive command struggles. By walking eight in his final start, he didn't give pro teams much confidence he could fix that, and he's betting on himself by going back for his redshirt junior season. If his command struggles continue, teams will be more convinced that he's a reliever and he could fall out of the top 100 picks, but even cutting his walk rate to perhaps 4.5 per nine could do wonders in proving he can start. Aside from his command, really, there's no reason to believe he can't. And Ohio State will love to have him back because the Big Ten can't handle the stuff. Pre-draft profile here.

4. RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State (my rank: 82)
This one makes a lot of sense, because Kevin Abel has barely pitched since his freshman season and there were rumors he was considering returning to Corvallis even before the draft was shortened to five rounds. If you're a college baseball fan, then you definitely recognize this name, because Abel went 5-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 41/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings in the 2018 NCAA Tournament, knocking down LSU, Washington, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Arkansas again in order. In that last start against the Razorbacks, he tossed a compete game, two hit, ten strikeout shutout to take home the National Championship. That was all as a true freshman, but he went down with Tommy John surgery 16.1 innings into his sophomore season in 2019 and we haven't seen him since. Now, we'll be able to see Abel again (pun intended) in orange and black, and fans in Corvallis couldn't be more excited. The last time we saw him throw, the San Diego native sat in the low 90's with his fastball and added an above average curveball and a plus fading changeup, and for a freshman, he commanded it all pretty well. With natural, healthy progression, it's easy to see him having above average command at this point, but of course he's been rehabbing instead, so it's hard to say where that command is today. Either way, with a very solid three pitch mix, a 6'2" frame, and plenty of big game experience, he'll be in a great position to lead Oregon State's rotation next year. Adding a little bit of power to his curveball, which stands out more for its depth than any kind of hard bite, in addition to taking that step forward with his command, would make him a great mid-rotation starting prospect. While the three names ahead of Abel on this list have a fairly wide range of outcomes, I see Abel as the most straightforward despite the injury. Pre-draft profile here.

5. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech (my rank: 114)
Technically, Brandon Birdsell isn't "returning" to Texas Tech because he's coming from San Jacinto CC, where he joined Cubs fourth rounder Luke Little and Nationals fifth rounder Mitchell Parker on an insanely talented pitching staff. Having lost Clayton Beeter (Dodgers, competitive balance round), Bryce Bonnin (Reds, third round), and John McMillon (Royals, undrafted free agent) from last year's pitching staff, Texas Tech will get a needed boost from bringing on Birdsell. What he lacks in track record, he makes up for in projectable starter traits, and I guess teams wanted to see him prove them in Lubbock (or he bet on himself to prove them beyond teams' expectations). His velocity has crept up throughout his college career and was the highest it's ever been in his final start of the 2020 season, where he sat in the mid 90's. He showed a loopy slider in high school outside of Houston that had some nice depth but lacked any sort of power, but he's tightened it up really well and it looks like an above average pitch at its best. With a projectable, durable 6'2" frame, a clean delivery, and solid strike throwing ability, he's really gathering his starter traits together nicely and Texas Tech will look to help him continue on that upward trend. Unlike the other names on this list, he'll be a junior next year rather than a senior, so he'll fit right in with other college arms age-wise. With a full season of success in the Red Raiders rotation, Birdsell could have his stock in a much stronger place a year from now.

6. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC-Irvine (my rank: 120)
This is probably the first one on the list where I'd expect it was more a product of the short draft than him wanting to bet on himself and pricing himself out. Had their been a sixth round, my guess is Trenton Denholm would have been drafted. The Sacramento-area native is a really fun pitcher to watch, and he's been productive too with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UCI over the past two seasons. Sure, the Anteaters play in a relatively pitcher-friendly park and don't have the toughest schedule around, but Denholm has been perhaps even more impressive over two seasons in the elite Cape Cod League: 32.2 innings, one unearned run, and a 41/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Undersized at a skinny 5'11", he makes up for average stuff with an extremely competitive demeanor on the mound and a willingness to attack hitters with everything he has. He throws his fastball in the low 90's, topping out around 93, adding two solid breaking balls in a curveball and a slider. His changeup is perhaps his best pitch with nice fading action, but his stuff really works best when he's locating it well. The good news is he possesses the above average command to make it work, though it's hard to see him adding much more velocity. If he can get a slight velocity bump in 2021, that would help push him more into the top 100 picks, though his undersized frame and lack of a true strikeout pitch probably push him into a long relief role. I wouldn't bet against him though because he's shown the ability to get everything out of what he has, and with a really late birthday that makes him the age of a rising junior rather than the rising senior he is, he'll be fun to track in 2021.

7. OF Parker Chavers, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 126)
After six pitchers, we finally get to our first position player. Parker Chavers (great baseball name) raked for two seasons at Coastal Carolina, slashing .319/.435/.554 with 22 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 101/78 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games from 2018-2019. The Montgomery, Alabama native also homered seven times while slashing .274/.354/.478 over 44 games against top pitching in the Cape Cod League over the summer, setting himself up for a big 2020 season. However, shoulder surgery meant that didn't happen, and Chanticleers fans thought they had seen the last of him when the season shut down. Now, he'll bring his potent bat back to Conway for the 2021 season. He's a tooled up outfielder who stands out most for his above average raw power, a product of natural athleticism and strength despite a smaller 5'11" frame. There's plus speed as well, though it plays more as above average on the field because his game is raw overall. He has some strikeout concerns that were more evident against top pitching on the Cape than they were against a relatively ordinary Sun Belt schedule, and his base running and defense are in need of more refinement. Chavers has a great opportunity to get that done in 2021, but he was already pretty old for a college junior this year and he'll be nearly 23 by the time the next draft roles around. If he doesn't refine his overall game significantly by then, Chavers will be much more of a day two money saver than a true top 100 prospect.

8. LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia (my rank: 127)
Back to the mound, Andrew Abbott is the first true reliever on this list. A product of Virginia's rural Southside region, Abbott has been UVA's part-time closer over the past three seasons, putting up a 3.24 ERA and a 165/49 strikeout to walk ratio and nine saves across 108.1 innings. With an uptempo delivery, a smaller frame, shaky command, and a two pitch arsenal, there is very little chance he gets to start in pro ball, so he'll head back to Charlottesville to prove he can be a sure-thing type of arm. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95 and brings a plus curveball from the left side, which helped him strike out 28 batters in 13.1 innings in 2020. Abbott is aggressive with his pitches and attacks the zone with a bulldog, closer mentality, but he struggles to locate his pitches consistently and that gives him below average command despite that willingness to pitch in the zone. In that sense, he's a lot like Burl Carraway-lite, though Carraway's fastball is a little faster and his curve is a little sharper. He's relatively young for a college junior and will only turn 22 around draft time, so he won't be that old, but sharpening his command a little bit will definitely be key in keeping himself in the top tier of relief prospects given the extra development time.

9. RHP Carson Seymour, Kansas State (my rank: 129)
This is a clear case where going back to school could really help, or really hurt, your draft stock. Carson Seymour grew up in Southern California but began his career at Dartmouth, then transferred halfway back across the country to Kansas State, where he'll stay put. Seymour is a big 6'5", 250 pound righty with very little track record to speak of, instead enticing scouts with his arm strength and one great final start in which he tossed six shutout innings (one unearned run) with nine strikeouts against Stanford. His best pitch is a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 99 in the past, adding an inconsistent slider and curveball that can flatten out at times and look like above average to plus pitches at others. He definitely has the build to start, but his command is even more inconsistent than his secondary pitches and he throws with a fair amount of effort. Seymour was hoping that strong Stanford start could be the start of a big run through Big 12 play, which was badly needed given his lack of a track record, but scouts weren't comfortable with an unproven arm with just 28 college innings to show. He'll head back to Manhattan (Manhattan, Kansas that is) to refine his game a bit more, which is certainly possible given the lack of mileage he has on his arm.

10. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (my rank: 146)
Mason Erla is definitely going to be an interesting one, because he's almost 23 already and will be coming up on 24 by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Erla has been a solid but unspectacular arm throughout his career at Michigan State, but an uptick in velocity in 2020 led to a 1.04 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, albeit against a relatively weaker schedule. The 6'4" righty comes from a low three quarters arm slot and now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a solid average slider and changeup to go along with it. With solid average command as well, he has enough starter traits to make it work, and could be a big league starting pitcher if a drafting team is willing to be patient. It's not that he'll take a long time to work his way up, it's just that he'll be almost 24 and might not hit the big leagues until he's 26 or 27. Erla probably fits better as a reliever anyways due to a lack of a true strikeout pitch, and he could move much quicker in that role. Either way, 2021 will be about proving his newfound velocity is for real and building off those four strong starts in the 2020 season.

Others:
3B Jamal O'Guinn, Southern California (my rank: 154)
RHP Jack Leftwich, Florida (my rank: 155)
SS Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech (my rank: 159)
LHP Ryan Webb, Georgia (unranked)
C Casey Opitz, Arkansas (unranked)

2020 Draft Preview: Who Could the Nationals Take at #22?

As a Nationals fan, I've put a lot of thought into the direction I'd like to see the Nationals go at pick #22. Predicting who they will take is pretty much guesswork, but as fans, we can look at the most likely options, choose one to latch onto, and hope. For context, these have been the Nationals' last five first round picks:

2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)

Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:

RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.

Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:

RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.

RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.

RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.

Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)

If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:

C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.

2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.

SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.

C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.

Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)

SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.

LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.