2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets pulled together a really interesting class filled with diverse skill sets that will be interesting to track in pro ball. It's headlined by Carson Benge, a do-it-all two-way guy who looks like he'll be a hitter only, and includes some live arms, data sleepers, and guys with interesting back stories. Now in the modern bonus pool era, teams almost universally sign every pick in the top ten rounds, but it appears the Mets are the one team to struggle with it. After failing to sign first rounder Kumar Rocker in 2021, they did the same with 2022 third rounder Brandon Sproat (then drafted and signed him a year later) and couldn't come to terms with ninth rounder Jaxon Jelkin this year.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $4.22 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($221,700 below slot value).
My rank: #15. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #15.
The Mets started off their draft with a fun one, one which reminds me just a bit of Mets 2023 third rounder and fellow OSU Cowboy Nolan McLean. Benge, a first rounder, has a much more polished, well-rounded profile and lacks McLean's other-worldly power, but aligns as a rangy, athletic two-way player with tremendous physical talent beyond just the baseball ability. McLean is now a pitcher, while it looks like Benge is going to hit. Tommy John surgery stole his freshman season in 2022, but he has been as central a piece as you can have for Oklahoma State over the past two seasons. He does a bit of it all. Benge has long levers in his 6'1" frame that he consistently gets extended, driving hard line drives around the field with plenty of regularity. While he prefers that all-fields approach, he's plenty strong with above average power that he is tapping more and more in games. With a patient approach and strong bat to ball, he controls the strike zone and walks at a high rate, and his overall skill set will be conducive to tapping more and more power as he develops. Some scouts question his unorthodox swing mechanics, which start with an open stance, continue into a leg kick/double foot tap hybrid coinciding with a barrel tip/hitch in his hands, and finish with significant head whack in his swing. Still, despite all the moving parts, he gets that barrel where it needs to be better than most hitters in this draft, speaking volumes to his innate hand-eye coordination. An average runner, he plays a very solid right field with his plus right arm that also serves him on the mound, where he is up to 96 with a deep slider and improving command. The Oklahoma City-area product is a great athlete that moves very well on both sides of the ball, further lending to the projection in his profile. With his athleticism, strength, barrel accuracy, patience, and projection, he could become one of the most well-rounded hitters in this class when all is said and done, with the chance to hit 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. He hasn't quite hit his stride yet, hitting .176/.391/.176 with eight strikeouts to five walks through five games at Low A St. Lucie.

2-46: LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke {video}
Slot value: $2.03 million. Signing bonus: $2.03 million.
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #32.
Jonathan Santucci has been on a bit of an interesting ride and he comes with more upside than the typical second round college arm. After establishing himself with a very strong freshman season in 2022, elbow problems cut his strong start to the 2023 season short. Santucci got off to a hot start again in 2024, putting up seventeen straight scoreless innings against Indiana, Northwestern, and Akron right out of the gate (including fourteen strikeouts in six innings against Akron), and found himself in the middle of the first round conversation to the point where he may not have even been available to the Mets at #19. Unfortunately, command woes derailed his season from there somewhat, but righted the ship somewhat at the end and kept himself within the top fifty picks. Santucci has almost all of the ingredients you look for in an impact starting pitcher. The 6'2" lefty is durably and athletically built with a pretty ideal frame to throw 180+ innings a year in the bigs, with a fairly clean delivery that should be pretty repeatable with pro instruction. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and gets up to 96-97 at peak, coming in with above average riding life to make it play up another tick with close to a 30% whiff rate. He gets late, deep bite on his plus slider that gets excellent results, especially when he commands it. He doesn't use his changeup as much, but it too looks like a potential weapon against righties with great fade to the arm side. It's a true big league three pitch mix from the left side, something you rarely find from a starting pitcher mold in the second round. While the Massachusetts native has held together his command at times, it escaped him more often than not in 2024 as he struggled to repeat his release point and execute his spots. The stuff was still enough to overwhelm ACC hitters and his 35% strikeout rate was among the better marks you'll see, though the 14% walk rate showed the other side of that. If the Mets can help him gain just enough feel for his delivery to live in the zone, the stuff will take care of the rest and he could be a #2 or #3 starter. If not, he could end up a frustrating back-end starter that pops for some gems or a three pitch reliever.

3-82: RHP Nate Dohm, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $934,800. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($137,300 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #150.
I found Nate Dohm to be an interesting sleeper this year and I had him ranked about a round ahead of most other outlets. It seems the Mets agreed, and they drafted him about a round earlier than I had him ranked, paying him roughly the slot value for pick #92 here at pick #82. Despite coming from a big SEC program, he took a fairly circuitous route to where he is now. An Indianapolis-area native, he began his career at Ball State and transferred to Mississippi State after a solid freshman season. He was off to an excellent start as a starter in 2024 when forearm problems shut him down in March, and after making one short appearance in April, he returned for three relief appearances in May. Health is certainly a question mark, but the stuff isn't. Dohm's fastball can sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 99 in short stints (though a few ticks below that in longer outings), coming in with big riding action from a great release point. It's a true plus pitch, and it looks plus-plus in short bursts. He shows a pair of above average breaking balls and can execute them better than most amateur pitchers. The changeup is interesting, as he typically lacks feel for it and doesn't use it too much, but every once in a while he grips it right and can show a plus one. On top of everything, Dohm is an impressive mover on the mound that gets nice extension and a low release point to make everything play up a little more out of his hand. The 6'4" righty also shows above average command and walked just four batters in 29.1 innings in 2024, giving him almost all of the ingredients to become an impact starting pitcher. At this point, the only issue is durability, as in addition to the missed time in 2024, he has made just eleven starts over three years in college and he has never thrown more than 41 innings in a season. Some scouts are also turned off by his delivery, which includes a late arm and late jerk down the mound. The Mets are banking on the excellent combination of size, stuff, command, and release point, and are hoping that they can iron out the delivery a little bit to keep him on the mound consistently. That durability will be the difference in whether he ends up a starter or a reliever.

4-111: OF Eli Serrano III, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $656,400. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($41,100 above slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #205.
Eli Serrano is an interesting one, and like Dohm, both the Mets and I like him better than the big publications. He jumped onto the scene with a nice freshman season at NC State (.292/.389/.470, 7 HR), then failed to take a step forward with almost the exact same numbers as a sophomore in 2024 (.286/.383/.433, 9 HR). However, while those numbers look underwhelming in a year of high offense around the league, the underlying metrics are very impressive. Serrano shows sneaky average raw power, and with his height (6'5") and projection he could grow into above average power pretty easily. At this point, he's more of a line drive hitter so that power doesn't really manifest itself in games, but he has the hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to elevate more with pro instruction. He's also an excellent contact hitter who quietly ran one of the higher contact rates in this draft class, and in fact was one of just five players on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145 college hitters) to turn in a contact rate above 85% and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 105 MPH. The high contact rates mean that he puts the ball in play as often as anybody, and was one of just four college hitters on my draft board (out of 73) to keep both his strikeout rate and his walk rate below 10% apiece. For the most part, the Mets are buying the bat here with his potential to hit 15-20 home runs per season with high batting averages. The glove is more ordinary, as Serrano shows average defensive tools across the board. His most likely destination is left field, where his lack of speed and arm strength can be hidden a little more, especially if he slows down further with age. So far, he's hitting .185/.241/.333 with one home run and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games for Low A St. Lucie.

5-144: SS Trey Snyder, Liberty North HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $476,200. Signing bonus: $1.32 million ($846,300 above slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #155. Baseball America: #142.
The Mets' largest over slot bonus by far went to Trey Snyder, who has a chance to be the team's shortstop of the future if everything breaks right. Initially committed to Tennessee, it took roughly the slot value for the #64 pick to lure him to New York instead. Snyder is more about polish over tools, so the development plan should be more straightforward than not. Though he's not ultra projectable, he has a quick right handed swing with natural loft that should help him maximize his fringy raw power in games. He already has a long track record of hitting against strong competition, supported by a disciplined approach at the plate and good feel for the barrel. The upside here is probably 10-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which will be plenty at shortstop. Snyder shows great body control at shortstop to make all the plays that come to him, with quick feet to make adjustments and enough arm to make it work on the left side of the infield. He's more of an average runner and the arm is more good than great, so there is a chance he gets pushed to second or third base by a more explosive defender. There's no question that the Kansas City-area product can flat out play ball, so his ability to impact the baseball and maintain his athleticism will determine his ultimate impact at the big league level.

6-173: 1B Corey Collins, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $363,100. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($88,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #182.
You can't research every player, so every year there has to be a cutoff and Corey Collins was one of those who just missed it for me in 2024. He represents one of the better senior signs in the country, giving the Mets close to a $100K haircut here in the sixth round while still bringing big league upside. A well-known prep catcher out of the Atlanta area in 2020, he ranked #122 on my draft board that year but wound up staying home to attend Georgia. He was more good than great as a hitter and ultimately failed to draw the same level of interest he had in high school, but broke out for a massive senior season in 2024 in which he slashed .354/.574/.772 with 20 home runs while batting in front of 2024 Golden Spikes Award winner and third overall pick Charlie Condon. Big and burly at a list 6'3", 235 pounds, he deploys his natural strength into true plus raw power that he tapped consistently in games in 2024. It's a really short, direct left handed swing that helped him simplify things at the plate and focus on jacking baseballs out over the right field wall. That approach continued to work for him against high level pitching in SEC play, where he hit .350/.538/.780 with 13 home runs in 29 games. In addition to the prodigious power, Collins has a discerning eye at the plate that helps him identify which pitches he can turn on while laying off the ones he can't. The approach is ahead of the pure bat to ball here, so it will be a challenge in the upper level's of pro ball against advanced pitchers who can execute quality pitches on the corners. While he has seen time behind the plate, his lack of agility has always made that a stretch and it's appeared less and less likely he would play there in pro ball. The fact that the Mets drafted him as a first baseman is a pretty big indication that they don't see a future at catcher, either. In that sense, he'll have to hit, and that seems likely. He has the upside of a 20+ home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, which would certainly play in a platoon role. Beyond walking a lot, he also finished fourth in NCAA Division I with 28 hit by pitches and led the SEC by a massive margin – no other hitter in the conference was hit by more than 20. Together with the walks, he reached base without swinging the bat in 34.7% of his plate appearances this past season. Age is a downside, as he'll be 23 in October. He's played one game so far, walking and ironically stealing a base for Low A St. Lucie despite not having stolen a base at Georgia since 2021.

10-293: RHP Brendan Girton, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $184,300. Signing bonus: $122,500 ($61,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brendan Girton represents another senior sign and gives the Mets a potential power reliever. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in far northwestern Oklahoma, he spent three seasons at Texas Tech pitching to mixed results. He transferred to Oklahoma to pitch his senior season back in his home state, but after a very strong season opening start against Tennessee (4 IP, 1 ER, 9 K), he struggled with consistency and finished with an ERA over seven and nearly a walk per inning. Girton is a power pitcher, with a fastball sitting in the mid 90's and touching 98 in short stints. Beyond the velocity, the pitch plays up further with running and riding life from a low slot and nice extension. It's really one of the better fastballs you'll find this late in the draft. His power slider shows nice late bite and dives below bats when he's going good, but he's inconsistent with it and doesn't always execute it. Above all, the 6'1" righty has below average command that has made both of his pitches play down, and that right there will be the key to pro success. Girton lacks starter upside due to that command and his lack of a changeup, though he is sturdily built and should be durable enough to thrive in a full time relief role. If he gets the command together a little, he could move quickly.

11-323: 2B Nick Roselli, Binghamton {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Mets opened up day three with a hometown pick. Nick Roselli hails from Levittown on Long Island, where he attended Division Avenue High School and hit .619 as a senior. He spent three years at Binghamton, where he hit from day one and got better each year despite breaking his hamate bone on Opening Day 2024 and missing nearly two months. Undersized at 5'10", he uses a quick left handed swing to drive the ball with much more authority than you'd expect from a smaller guy. He's shown the ability to turn on the ball to the pull side while spraying hard line drives to all fields, though that power has not shown up with wood bats and he has slugged just .293 with two home runs in 64 games over his three seasons in summer wood bat leagues. He hasn't faced the strongest competition in the America East Conference, where he has shown very strong plate discipline and bat to ball, though that approach has carried over to his wood bat leagues. With average speed and a general lack of explosiveness, both his range and arm are best suited for second base in the long run, where he has strong feel for the position and should be an average defender. It would appear as a utility infield profile with the potential to show average offensive numbers across the board at peak, though being limited to second base and left field makes that a little tougher. Regardless, the Mets will love having Nick Roselli from Levittown in the lineup if he can push his way up there. He has shown pretty well so far, hitting .278/.409/.389 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at Low A St. Lucie.

14-413: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($72,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Tanner Witt has been a known commodity not just to Texas scouts but to scouting directors for a long time now. A highly regarded two-way prep out of his Houston high school, Witt ranked #88 on my 2020 draft board and had draft interest as high as the first round, but was dead set on heading to Austin to play for the Longhorns. After a strong freshman season in 2021 and two strong starts to begin 2022, he seemed to be solidifying himself as a likely first round pick for the 2023 draft. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of that sophomore season, then did not look like himself in six abbreviated starts at the end of 2023. Still, he ranked #93 on my board that year and ranked as the top unsigned draft prospect returning to school in 2024. Unfortunately, health problems persisted into 2024 and he lasted just five short appearances before being shut down again. He's allegedly healthy now, having posted this video shortly before the draft (on his 22nd birthday no less), so the Mets will look to get him back to where he was from 2020-2022. So what was all the first round hype about? Witt's fastball sits in the low 90's, having touched 97 in the past, with huge riding action from a very high, over the top sot that counteracts the movement a little. His signature pitch is a big 12-6 curveball with tremendous depth, though it breaks so much that he doesn't always execute it where he wants it. There's a solid slider in there that he unveiled while at Texas, and his above average changeup rounds out a pretty complete arsenal. Witt has really filled out his 6'6" frame and now fully looks the part of a big league starting pitcher, with an easy, repeatable delivery that he shows great feel for. Previously, he showed an interesting double tap in his hand break in which he showed the ball to hitters before tapping it back into the glove, but watching the video linked a few sentences back it appears he has eliminated that. It also looks like he has dropped his arm slot a bit, so the extremely high release point may be no more. Witt's father, Kevin, played five sporadic seasons in the big leagues between 1998 and 2006 and the baseball IQ has clearly been passed onto Tanner, who has displayed an advanced understanding for pitching and a drive to improve. He was still figuring out how to command the baseball at the collegiate level when his injury woes started (remember, he was only fully healthy as an 18 year old freshman), and while all signs pointed to him figuring that out, it's now going to be a question mark. Durability is of course another major question mark as he has thrown just 31 innings over the past three seasons and hasn't really looked like himself since February 2022, but "himself" is a potential #2-#3 starter who could reach the majors in a hurry. The Mets have a really interesting development project in front of them and although he was a senior sign, he was young for the class and only turned 22 shortly before the draft.

The top 5 unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2024

Now that I have finally completed all thirty team by team draft reviews, it's time to look at the guys who didn't sign. We'll start with the college players, and only five from my whole draft list went unsigned, one less than last year. All five are pitchers, and they all have different reasons for returning. Two are coming off major injuries, two had inconsistent seasons, and most are on the younger side for the class giving them better prospects if they return. Interestingly, Texas has the top two names on this list. Last year, of the six college players on my draft list to go unsigned, four were drafted in the top one hundred picks this year (two by the Mets) led by Ty Floyd at pick #38 to the Reds, one fell to the eleventh round, and one was not eligible. That's a very nice track record and puts the five names below in a good spot.
Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#93) RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Tanner Witt is a tough fish to reel in. He was the seventh best high school pitcher to reach campus after the pandemic after ranking #87 on my 2020 draft list, and now he's the highest ranking college player to return to school since #10 Kumar Rocker after the 2021 season. Upon reaching campus, he immediately became a key piece out of the Texas bullpen in 2021, then looked sharp in his first two starts of 2022 to push himself into very early discussions for the 2023 first round. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season, then returned in May of 2023. Before the injury, he had been 7-0 with a 2.91 ERA and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings, but after he returned this spring, he put up a 10.97 ERA and an 8/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings. Heading to the Cape Cod League to try to rebuild his stock before the draft, he continued to struggle with an 11.93 ERA and an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings. For that reason, he turned down the Orioles in the eighteenth round and will return to Austin for his senior season. When healthy, Witt is a pretty complete starting pitching prospect. His fastball sits in the low 90's and has scraped as high as 97 in the past, coming in with nice riding life from a high release point. He has great feel for a big 12-6 curveball with great depth, while he also shows a solid slider and an above average changeup. The big 6'6" righty repeats his delivery very well and has long had above average control, exuding polish as an underclassman. The stuff was flatter in 2023 as he looked rusty coming back from surgery, and because of that he got hit hard. Witt's delivery already lacks deception with a unique double tap of the ball out of and back into the glove, giving hitters an extra look, and its lack of moving parts make it easy to track the ball even if it helps his command. Fortunately, the Houston native was very young for the 2023 class and will pitch his entire senior season at 21 years old, putting him just a little on the older side for the 2024 draft class but still more or less age appropriate. The son of former first baseman Kevin Witt, who had a nice year with the Tigers in 2003, Tanner has tremendous feel for pitching and a great head on his shoulders, fully understanding what he needs to do to become a better pitcher. Hopefully, he'll shake off the rust and push his way back into the top couple of rounds for the 2024 draft while leading the Longhorns to another competitive season in the Big 12 alongside Lebarron Johnson.

2. (#106) RHP Lebarron Johnson, Texas.
Tanner Witt isn't the only star pitcher heading back to Austin. While Witt is the more famous name due to his long history as a draft prospect, Lebarron Johnson may actually have more upside in the long run. He didn't pitch as a freshman in 2021, worked out of the bullpen in 2022, then was primarily a starter in 2023 as he posted a 2.91 ERA and a 98/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings. I'm definitely one of the high guys on Johnson. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 with extreme downhill plane that gives him a unique look. His power slider gets into the low 90's and looks like a plus pitch, while his nasty splitter gives him another weapon. It's really, really loud stuff that you don't come by every day. To this point, the Jacksonville native has been inconsistent with his command, especially with his offspeed stuff, but he's trending in the right direction there. Going back to Texas will give him an opportunity to add a little more polish, and it would be nice to see him incorporate something softer into his arsenal as well so he can change speeds more effectively. Like Witt, he was on the younger end for the class and will only turn 22 during the 2024 College World Series, so he won't be crazy old for the 2024 class. Back at school for his redshirt junior season, he'll look to prove his ability to start long term and with Witt gives the Longhorns one of the better, more experienced one-two punches in the country.

3. (#185) RHP Terry Busse, Georgia Tech.
Terry Busse began his career at powerhouse John A. Logan JC in Illinois, then transferred to Georgia Tech as a junior. "Scary Terry" was untouchable to start the 2023 season, kicking off with 12 shutout innings on just five hits, one walk, and 23 strikeouts against such opponents as Georgia, Notre Dame, and Auburn. Unfortunately that was the high water mark for his draft stock, as he faded over the course of the season and had a 7.12 ERA the rest of the way, finishing with a 5.10 ERA and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings overall. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with run and sink, playing up further from a deceptive slot. The slider looks like a plus pitch at its best with late diving action, and when he's on, those two pitches are untouchable. Early in the season, he was locating both pitches to both sides of the plate and keeping hitters well off balance, but that unraveled later on as the command slipped. He's 65 pounds lighter and doesn't throw quite as hard, but the profile overall reminds me of Brusdar Graterol especially with the mechanics. Busse has a disjointed-looking delivery in which he picks up and drops his front leg quickly before pausing then planting and whipping his arm around. It's not pretty, but it effectively transfers energy from his lower half to his upper half. With two pitches, a funky delivery, and the way he faded down the stretch, it's a pure relief profile. He'll go back to Atlanta to prove he can hold his peak stuff over longer periods of time. Unlike Witt and Johnson above him on this list and Little below him, he's already on the older side and will pitch the entire 2024 season at 22 years old.

4. (#197) RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State.
As if LSU needs any more help, they're getting back one of the best unsigned college pitchers in the country. Christian Little's career has been a roller coaster ride, to say the least, so by returning to Baton Rouge he'll hope to right the ship and get his payday. One of the top high school pitchers in the entire country in 2021 earning top ten (!) buzz, he graduated early from Christian Brothers College High School in St. Louis to enroll at Vanderbilt as a 17 year old. Serving as the Commodore midweek starter in 2021, he worked mostly out of the bullpen in 2022 and decided to transfer to LSU in search of his breakout. The change of scenery unfortunately had the opposite effect and he posted a 7.79 ERA and a 42/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings, making for the worst season of his young career. However, he was one of the youngest players in the entire 2023 college class, not turning 20 until just before the draft at nearly two years younger than Terry Busse, who himself was age appropriate. So even though he's going back to school for his senior year, he'll still be very young for the 2024 class and will only turn 21 right around draft day. Little has nasty stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 with some ride, and he can take a little off to turn it into an upper 80's cutter. He has a sharp slider that looks above average at best, though it can blend into his fringier curveball at times. He also shows a decent changeup. The command was solid during his prep career, but he has never taken a step forward in that regard and now grades below average, causing all of his stuff to play down as he works from behind in the count. Standing 6'4", 225 pounds, he's very physical but his delivery can get rigid, which also works against his command, and he'll have to watch his conditioning going forward. Returning to LSU will give the young arm a chance to iron out the kinks in his delivery and get more consistent with his stuff, in which case he could shoot back up boards. The age is a huge boon for him in possibly being able to make that happen.

5. (#208) RHP Joseph Gonzalez, Auburn.
Joseph Gonzalez put up a great sophomore season in 2022, posting a 3.22 ERA and a 54/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, positioning himself as a potential top one hundred pick in 2023 entering the season. He showed well in his first start of 2023 against Indiana, tossing five shutout innings while allowing just three baserunners and picking up one strikeout, but he hurt his shoulder and hasn't seen the mound since. Shoulders injuries are about the most unpredictable injury a pitcher can get, so teams were naturally scared off by the fact that he hadn't pitched and weren't willing to roll the dice with the reasonably large signing bonus his talent would have earned him. So he'll head back to the Plains and look to prove his health in 2024. When healthy, Gonzalez sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 93-94 with running and sinking action. He has nice feel for both his low 80's slider and his above average changeup, though none stands out as a true strikeout pitch. Instead, the Puerto Rico native keeps hitters off balance by changing speeds and executing all three pitches to both sides of the plate with plus command, making him more of an old school pitching prospect in that regard. So long as he's healthy, he's a high floor type that looks like a high probability #4 or #5 starter in the long run, especially if he can add a tick of power to his stuff. However, the injury takes away that high floor, so it's hard to sell scouts on a low ceiling/low floor type. Showing that he's healthy and pounding the strike zone again in 2024 will get him back to the low ceiling/high floor type that typically does well early in day two.

2023 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12 Conference

2022 draftees: 47. Top school: Oklahoma (11)
2022 preseason writeup (published 9/18/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-7, Cubs: RHP Cade Horton (Oklahoma)
1-12, Tigers: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech)
CBA-37, Guardians: RHP Justin Campbell (Oklahoma State)
2-43, Diamondbacks: 1B Ivan Melendez (Texas)
2-45, Nationals: LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma)
2-51, Tigers: SS Peyton Graham (Oklahoma)

2022 was a banner year draft-wise for the Big 12, which crushed 2021's total of 38 players drafted by nine. The two Oklahoma schools alone combined for twenty draftees, including four of the first 51 picks, and the the University of Oklahoma led all schools nationwide with eleven draftees. This year, Oklahoma State will lead the way at least early on after placing four names in the top nine prospects heading into the season, certainly aided by the return of Nolan McLean, the highest drafted player a year ago to go unsigned. Let's take a look at those top ten draft prospects in the Big 12.

1. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/22/2002. Hometown: West Jordan, UT.
2022: 13 HR, .314/.454/.576, 10 SB, 40/55 K/BB in 59 games.
One of the most consistent hitters in the Big 12 over the past couple seasons is finally draft eligible, and scouts couldn't be more excited. Brayden Taylor needed zero time to adjust to the college game, immediately hitting his way into the TCU starting lineup as a freshman and slashing .319/.450/.574 with 25 home runs and far more walks (104) than strikeouts (86) in 117 games so far. He had a chance to build his stock further against elite competition this summer, but didn't make much impact with the Collegiate National Team and hit a solid if unspectacular .269/.361/.385 with two home runs in 26 games in the Cape Cod League. Taylor stands out for an extremely professional approach at the plate, which is why he was able to adjust to Big 12 pitching so easily and also why he rarely slumps. He rarely ever chases out of the zone and won't swing through many hittable pitches either, and only gets into minor strikeout trouble because he tends to work deep counts. The Salt Lake City-area product has a very loose, whippy barrel that remains long through the zone, helping him work to all fields effectively while further limiting that swing and miss. There is solid power in the tank, with the ability to turn on balls and send them out consistently to the pull side. To really make the most of his power potential, he'll want to tack on additional strength to his skinny 6'1" frame, which would help that power play better to all fields and really push him into top ten consideration. With a late May birthday that will have him turn 21 less than two months before the draft, he is young for the class and has that much more time to fill out. Furthermore, his swing is more oriented for line drives for now and adding loft may help if he chooses to go that route. Either way, it's at least average power for now combined with a plus hit tool, so 15-20 home runs per year with high on-base percentages are well within reach. Defensively, he has played mostly third base to this point and has looked very solid, so a team bullish on his glove could give him a shot at shortstop. Overall, I see this package as very similar to a left handed Cade Doughty, and I really liked Doughty as a first rounder up until a late season slump last year dropped him to the second compensation round. Taylor has a very good shot at the first round as it stands now, and if he comes out in the spring a little more physical, the top ten picks are a possibility.

2. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 2/23/2002. Hometown: Hanford, CA.
2022 (@ Long Beach State): 4-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 111/29 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Juaron Watts-Brown is slowly but steadily trending up and up and up. He was originally a Texas Tech commit, but decided to stay in his home state and attend Long Beach State at first. After sitting out his freshman season in 2021, he announced his presence loudly in 2022 and parlayed that into a strong run through the Cape Cod League (3.83 ERA, 53/16 K/BB in 40 innings). Now he'll head to the Big 12 like he originally planned, but he'll move past Lubbock on his way to Stillwater. Watts-Brown is throwing harder and harder, now sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 96 while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His slider and curveball both have two-plane action, but remain distinct from each other and look like above average pitches, while his changeup provides a fourth average or better pitch. Everything plays up from a pretty ideal release, as he gets down the mound extremely well to create great extension and a lower release point, in turn giving his fastball nice riding life. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound with plenty of projection remaining, making for a very fun ball of clay for Josh Holliday's staff and eventually a pro staff to play with. For now, the command is fringe-average and could use some improvement, as he can yank his front side at times and lose his release point. It's nothing major and I don't expect it to hold back his profile, which looks to fit somewhere in the second round range for now but which could easily leap into the first round if he takes well to the Big 12. I'm personally a believer which is why I rank him as the best pitching prospect in the conference.

3. RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 215 lbs. Born 7/11/2002. Hometown: Houston, TX.
2022: 2-0, 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 14/3 K/BB in 11 innings.
One of the more highly regarded recruits to reach campus following the 2020 draft, Tanner Witt jumped straight into a prominent role in the Longhorn bullpen as a true freshman in 2021 and put up a 3.16 ERA and a 73/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings. Transitioning into the rotation in 2022, he looked very sharp in starts against Rice and Alabama to start the season, pitching his way into top ten consideration for 2023, but went down with Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched since. The surgery will keep him out for at least the early part of 2023, though it's not out of the question that he could return later in the season and reclaim some of that draft stock. Even without much track record as a starter, it's hard not to like Witt. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96-97 at his best, with natural riding action above what most others are capable of. Interestingly, the 6'5" righty throws from an extremely high release point that puts steep downhill angle on the ball, so those two characteristics counteract each other a little bit. Witt drops in a big 12-6 curveball that he has feel to land for strikes, though it can catch too much of the plate at times and get hit. He also shows an average slider and an above average changeup, giving him a full arsenal of four average or better pitches. The Houston native is very advanced for his age, repeating his delivery well and showing solid command of his four pitch mix, looking every bit like a starting pitcher. He does have an interesting quirk in his delivery where he pulls the ball out of his glove briefly at the top of his leg lift, then taps it back in before bringing out for real. This gives hitters an extra look at his grip, which could become a problem with more seasoned pro hitters, but it's also not a difficult fix. The injury does put a dent in his stock simply because he doesn't get to show what he's capable of, but Witt is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until the third day of the draft, so he's playing with a little bit of house money there. He's also extremely projectable and looks durable aside from the elbow surgery, which at this point is pretty inevitable for any pitcher. Witt looks like a high probability mid-rotation starter.

4. SS Nick Goodwin, Kansas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/6/2001. Hometown: Overland Park, KS.
2022: 11 HR, .255/.354/.525, 6 SB, 57/30 K/BB in 57 games.
Nick Goodwin may not have a carrying tool, but he does a lot well and has a chance to be a real breakout performer in 2023 after holding down a very solid .267/.354/.502 slash line over two years at Kansas State so far. In addition to being a dependable cog for the Wildcats, he showed similarly well in the Cape Cod League with a .267/.342/.466 line, six homers, and a 42/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He's not huge, but he taps average power to all fields with a quick right handed swing that puts good loft on the ball and effectively maximizes his strength. There is some swing and miss, as his strikeout rate jumped from 19.3% as a freshman to 23.1% as a sophomore and clocked in at 22.8% on the Cape, but he has consistently performed well against high level pitching both in the Big 12 and on the Cape so it's not a huge concern. It would be nice though if he could at least cut that down below 20% in 2022, and if he could get it down around 15-16% or so while maintaining his power, this suddenly goes from a third round profile to something much more interesting. Defensively, he has handled shortstop at Kansas State well and will get a chance to play there in pro ball, though he may not be quite explosive enough to make it work long term and could fit better at second or third base. Overall, there is upside of a 15-20 home run infield bat with decent on-base percentages if he cuts down his strikeouts a little, and he'd fit well as a utility infielder even if he does continue to strikeout out at a moderate rate.

5. 2B Roc Riggio, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'9", 180 lbs. Born 6/11/2002. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2022: 11 HR, .295/.413/.519, 2 SB, 58/34 K/BB in 54 games.
If you watched the 2022 Oklahoma State Cowboys, it would have been hard not to notice Roc Riggio. The 5'9" showman with long hair dyed bright blond plays with as much energy as anybody on the field, the epitome of a new-school, let-the-kids-play electric factory. Having earned considerable draft interest out of his Los Angeles-area high school in 2021, he reached campus in Stillwater and immediately hit his way into the starting lineup as a freshman, acting as a catalyst for one of the best lineups in the country with his bat flips and all-out style of play. Riggio continued on to the Cape Cod League over the summer but couldn't quite match his big freshman season, slashing just .200/.258/.339 with three home runs and a 37/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. The profile here is carried by the bat, as he takes big hacks from the left side to tap above average power despite his small frame. He does a good job of getting loft under ball when it's down in the zone while keeping a more level swing up in the zone, boding well for both his future power production and contact ability, though for now he's still adjusting to college level pitching and has some swing and miss in his game. He struck out 22.4% of the time for Oklahoma State this spring then ran a 29.6% K rate on the Cape, so bringing that down will be high on the priority list. Right now he profiles for 20+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages if he can. Riggio is not the greatest athlete and will have to work to remain at second base, with the outfield a real possibility if he gets pushed by a better defender in pro ball, so his value will rely on his ability to hit pro pitching. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he's younger than most of the juniors he'll compete against for draft position and turns 21 a month before the draft.

6. SS Marcus Brown, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11", 185 lbs. Born 9/14/2001. Hometown: Springdale, AR.
2022: 4 HR, .316/.378/.441, 5 SB, 38/21 K/BB in 64 games.
Roc Riggio may be the most exciting player on the Oklahoma State roster, but the guy playing right across the bag from him is the school's flashiest defender. Springy and athletic, Marcus Brown moves very well around the dirt and makes it look easy out there with an above average arm. That glove will be the carrying tool in his profile, but he can swing it a little bit too. Employing a loose left handed hack that gets the barrel long through the zone and produces plenty of line drive contact, he puts nearly everything in play and struck out just 13.7% of the time in 2022, easily the lowest mark on this list. A career .323/.388/.436 hitter in Stillwater, like Riggio he struggled to make an impact on the Cape and slashed just .233/.315/.295 in 44 games there. His 20% strikeout rate was much lower than Riggio's 29.6%, but still elevated above his number with the Cowboys as he struggled to find gaps and fences with wood bats. Still, I remain fairly optimistic on the bat especially given that his glove will buy it plenty of time to develop. Though he's undersized at 5'11", he naturally whips the barrel through the zone with authority and getting even a little bit stronger could help him threaten for double digit home run totals in pro ball. He'll always make plenty of contact and keep defenses on their toes, though the minimal swing and miss in his game to date does keep his walk rates down – 7.6% at OSU and 6.1% on the Cape.

7. OF Elijah Nuñez, Texas Christian.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 12/6/2001. Hometown: Arlington, TX.
2022: 1 HR, .281/.435/.368, 31 SB, 48/58 K/BB in 60 games.
Elijah Nuñez brings an old school profile to the ballpark here, so he stands in contrast to many other players scouts will be looking at. A glove-first guy like Marcus Brown, he will certainly stick in center field with plenty of speed and exceptional feel for the position, immediately providing a strong baseline of value. It's easier to carry a profile with your glove if you catch or play a mean shortstop like Brown, but Nuñez gets it done in center field with the best of them. He's also a very patient hitter at the plate that doesn't swing and miss much (16.7% strikeout rate) and draws a ton of walks. In fact his 58 free passes tied for eighth in the nation last year, a feat made even more impressive when you consider he was younger than all seven players ahead of him as well as the guy tied with him, and also the fact that he did so in fewer games than all but one player in that group. When he does swing at the ball, he's a gap to gap line drive hitter that doesn't try to do too much, with below average power that has manifested in just two home runs in 114 career games for the Horned Frogs. While the glove and legs give his profile plenty of baseline value, his offensive profile will be reliant on keeping those on-base percentages high because he likely won't threaten for double digit home runs. To me, it's a pretty clear fourth outfield profile but one that has a chance to be extremely valuable.

8. RHP Cam Brown, Texas Christian.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 215 lbs. Born 10/15/2001. Hometown: Flower Mound, TX.
2022: 5-2, 4.42 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 49/31 K/BB in 53 innings.
Cam Brown is very much an enigma at this point. One of the stars of the showcase circuit in the summer of 2019, he was pitching his way into the top two rounds but did not look like himself during his COVID-shortened senior spring in 2020. That led him to campus at TCU, where he barely pitched as a freshman and had an up and down sophomore season in which he did not miss nearly as many bats as hoped. Taking his talents to the Cape Cod League over the summer, he pitched to mixed results once more and allowed seven runs in nine innings with an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio. At his best, Brown looks like a bona fide impact starting pitcher, running his fastball into the upper 90's and flashing above average with his entire arsenal of secondaries, consisting of a slider, curve, and changeup. It's really loud stuff from a big league body, but he's just never been able to put it all together. The delivery can get stiff and he struggles to command it all, often falling behind in the count and leaving pitches over the plate to get hit or giving up free passes. I'm worried that the fastball may play a bit true out of his hand and play below its low to mid 90's velocity, and inconsistent secondaries led to just a 20.6% strikeout rate last year. The DFW native could benefit from a pro development program to help him find more deception and perhaps improve his command a tick, in which case he really could pull it all together and become a mid-rotation starter in the majors. At some point, though, you're going to want to see some results and he just hasn't missed enough bats in the Big 12 yet to feel comfortable projecting him in that role. But that's why you get three years in college, right?

9. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Garner, NC.
2022: 19 HR, .285/.397/.595, 2 SB, 107/37 K/BB in 64 games.
2022: 2-1, 5.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 39/13 K/BB in 25.1 innings.
Nolan McLean will rank as the ninth best prospect in the Big 12 for the second year in a row after the Orioles failed to meet his signing bonus demands at the 81st overall pick last year, making him the highest drafted player to go unsigned. Eligible as a sophomore last year, he'll still be close to age appropriate this year and will turn 22 just after the draft, making him just a couple months older than Nick Goodwin, Marcus Brown, and Cam Brown. A true two-way player, he was one of three Cowboys to appear in all 64 games last year (along with #6 prospect Marcus Brown) and also made 23 appearances on the mound, so scouts have seen him plenty to this point. At the plate, McLean stands out for plus-plus raw power as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run that ranks among the best in the country. He's big and strong at 6'3" with long arms that naturally channel that strength into leverage and bat speed, but he has been extremely inconsistent to this point thanks in large part to a well below average hit tool. In fact, his 107 strikeouts this past season set an all time Division I record, as he struggles to adjust his grooved swing to correct for mistakes in pitch/location identification. The power is absolutely tantalizing, but when you strike out 36.9% (!) of the time, it's hard to get scouts to buy in. Going back to school will give him a chance to at least bring that number down below 30% and ideally closer to 25%, where scouts could slap a 40 grade on his hit tool and call it a risk worth taking. The Orioles actually drafted him as a pitcher this past season, and he'll have an opportunity to step into a larger role for Oklahoma State as the Cowboys lost their top seven arms by innings pitched to the draft, the transfer portal, or graduation. He can touch the upper 90's in short stints and is gradually improving his feel for spin with both a curveball and slider in hand, together helping him miss enough bats to run a very strong 35.1% strikeout rate. Below average command, in addition to his duties at third base, have kept him in the bullpen so far, but it would be interesting to see if Josh Holliday and co. give him a shot in the rotation this spring with so many spots opening up. If he takes another step forward with that command, suddenly the arm strength and feel for spin become really interesting here.

10. LHP Lucas Gordon, Texas.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/13/2002. Hometown: Los Angeles, CA.
2022: 7-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 77/26 K/BB in 85.2 innings.
Once Tanner Witt gets healthy, the 2023 Texas rotation will have a very similar feel draft-wise to the 2021 rotation. Witt, like Ty Madden, is a potential first rounder from Houston with a power fastball from a high slot and strong command, while Lucas Gordon, like Pete Hansen, is a soft tossing command/control lefty from California. Funny how that works out sometimes. Gordon is coming off a very strong sophomore season in Austin where he formed a strong one-two punch with Hansen, forcing his way into draft conversations by his performance even if the stuff doesn't quite match up yet. He sits around 90 with his fastball and can get up to about 94 at best with some run, so it's an average pitch. Gordon has strong feel for both his sweepy slider and slurvy curveball, but they lack the power and bite you look for in a swing and miss secondary offering. His best pitch is a plus changeup with excellent fading action, rounding out a full big league arsenal. The 6'1" lefty repeats his delivery very well with above average command of both his fastball and his offspeeds, showing the ability to spot everything to both sides of the plate, and he ran a very respectable 7.2% walk rate as a sophomore. The stuff can get hit hard when he leaves it up and over the plate, and in aggregate he didn't miss many bats with just a 21.2% strikeout rate. Scouts know that Gordon can pound the strike zone and control at bats, so in 2023 they'll look for the Los Angeles product to show a little more velocity on his fastball and/or power on his breaking balls to help grow his margin for error a little bit. It's a back-end starter profile if he can.

Honorable Mention: LHP Ben Hampton, West Virginia.
Ben Hampton was the first player off the list, but I wanted to give him his due after an incredible run through the Cape Cod League. He was draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 but didn't get much interest after posting a 4.66 ERA and a 90/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings at West Virginia, but reached another level on the Cape with a 2.27 ERA and a 51/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings. The fastball velocity just isn't there yet, parking in the upper 80's and rarely scratching 90, but he hides it very well and gets good ride on it, making it something of an invisiball. His primary offspeed pitch is a sweepy slider with depth that he locates well, and everything plays up because he mixes and matches his stuff to keep hitters off balance. There is not much projection remaining in his stocky 6'1" frame so there is no guarantee he ever consistently reaches the low 90's, where the profile would be much more attractive. Still, there are some similarities to Monmouth's Trey Dombroski a year ago, who went in the fourth round to the Astros, even if Hampton is a good four inches shorter. Despite the exceptional numbers on the Cape, Hampton was up and down in conference play last year (6.15 ERA, 46/17 K/BB in 41 IP) and has never had success against high level competition before this summer. Throw in that he's old for the class, turning 22 a few weeks after the draft, and it's hard to know exactly what to make of the soft tossing Wisconsinite. 

2020 Draft: Top 12 Undrafted High School Pitchers

Personally, I love watching Friday night duels in college baseball, and the shortened 2020 draft means we'll have more pitching talent heading to school than ever before. Carson Montgomery headlines the incoming freshman class as a fringe-first rounder who wanted to head to Florida State, while Miami managed to bring on not one but two of the top four, at least by my pre-draft rankings. Other big programs like Vanderbilt, LSU, and Texas jumped on there, while San Diego State lost Ricky Tiedemann when he decided to switch it up to Long Beach Community College, where he'll be draft-eligible again in 2021. Personally, my two "sleeper" picks from this list are Ryan Hagenow and and Nick Griffin, the latter of which reminds me of Asa Lacy as a high schooler.

1. RHP Carson Montgomery (my draft rank: 39)
Windermere HS [FL] -> Florida State
The top player on my rankings to go undrafted, Carson Montgomery is set to jump into a Florida State rotation that lost CJ Van Eyk (Blue Jays, second round) and Shane Drohan (Red Sox, fifth round) as well as Antonio Velez (Marlins, undrafted) out of the bullpen. Van Eyk and Drohan were big draft names in their own right out of high school in 2017, ranking 107th and 118th on my draft list that year, so bringing on blue chip recruits is nothing new for FSU. Montgomery is a 6'2" right hander with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and his extremely loose right arm makes him even more projectable. For now, he has a low 90's fastball that he can run up to 96, and he's working on maintaining that velocity a little better. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent slider that can flash plus at its best, and he throws a sneaky good changeup that he doesn't use as often. His command is fairly inconsistent as well, but he's very young for an incoming freshman and won't even turn 18 until August. Montgomery might need a little bit of refinement throughout his freshman year but I imagine that by the time he's a sophomore, he'll be a true ace for the Seminoles. Pre-draft profile here.

2. RHP Ryan Hagenow (my draft rank: 52)
Farragut HS [TN] -> Kentucky
I took a bit of a gamble on Ryan Hagenow, who ranked 52nd on my list but 68th on MLB Pipeline and 194th on Baseball America. I really like his upside though, and I have a feeling he's going to spend his three years in Lexington and turn into a monster. He's an uber-projectable 6'5" righty out of the Knoxville area who has a lot to work on, but I think he has a lot going for him as well. His fastball velocity isn't quite there yet, sitting around 90 for the most part and topping out around 93, but his loose arm puts nice movement on the pitch and portends to future velocity gains. His slider is average for now, flattening out at times but also showing some nice depth down in the zone when he gets it right. Adding some power and consistency in college could make it a plus pitch. To me, his best pitch right now is his changeup, with great fading action to the arm side. He does a decent job of throwing strikes, but he needs to smoothen out his delivery a little bit, which I believe he will. I love the way his arms and legs work in his delivery and he could easily add 20-30 pounds at school, which should help him add power to his fastball and slider. In a best case scenario, I could really see him coming out for the 2023 draft with three plus pitches and a starter's frame, which would easily put him in the first round. There's a long way to go, and I don't think he'll slot directly into Kentucky's weekend rotation right away, but he is relatively young for the class with a June birthday and I have a good feeling about him. Pre-draft profile here.

3. RHP Victor Mederos (my draft rank: 57)
Westminster Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami did a fantastic job of holding its talented recruiting class together, and it's a good thing because they lost their entire weekend rotation in Slade Cecconi (Diamondbacks, comp round), Chris McMahon (Rockies, second round), and Brian Van Belle (Red Sox, undrafted), plus reliever Tyler Keysor (Reds, undrafted). Headlining the incoming recruits, at least as far as my list goes, is Victor Mederos, a Cuban-born pitcher who fled the country with his mother and brother when he was six years old and settled in Miami. The big 6'4" righty has as strong an arm as anyone in this class, sitting in the low to mid 90's with a fastball he can run up to 96. He has two breaking balls in a curveball and a slider that can flash plus, with the former showing great depth and power at times and the latter coming in with harder velocity. There is a solid changeup as well, and Mederos aggressively attacks hitters with all four, though the two breaking balls can blend into each other at times. That aggressiveness can hurt him more than it helps him at times, with a tendency to overthrow and lose his arm slot and therefore strike zone. He does have the innate strike throwing ability to be successful in that area, and all he really needs to do is stay within himself more. Miami is getting a really exciting, high-octane arm who could develop into an impact starter, though with a June birthday that makes him old for the class, he'll be eligible again for the 2022 draft as a sophomore. Pre-draft profile here.

4. RHP Alejandro Rosario (my draft rank: 67)
Miami Christian HS [FL] -> Miami
Joining Mederos in that future Hurricanes rotation will be fellow Miami native Alejandro Rosario, though he's a very different pitcher. While Mederos is listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds, Rosario is a very slim 6'1" and 165 pounds. He lives off his fastball, which sits in the mid 90's, has registered as high as 99, and gets good running action to the arm side. His secondary pitches are more of a work in progress, with a slider and a splitter that he's still working to differentiate. Believe it or not, the splitter is actually ahead of the slider, an above average pitch at its best, and he needs to refine his slider to look less like his splitter, not the other way around. Because of his slight frame and unrefined arsenal, he faces significant reliever questions in pro ball, though I think he'll definitely be able to start at least in college. Maybe not right off the bat, as I think Mederos has a better shot to crack the rotation as a freshman than Rosario does, but he's athletic, repeats his delivery well, and throws enough strikes to make it work. Throw in the easy gas and the splitter/slider thing, and he'll miss tons of bats in the ACC. During his time in Miami, if he can refine those secondary pitches and perhaps bulk up a little bit, his electric right arm could be really enticing for teams early in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.

5. RHP/SS/QB Cade Horton (my draft rank: 70)
Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
A quarterback/baseball player heading to Oklahoma? Cade Horton is harkening back to Kyler Murray with that combination, but he's not quite the prospect Murray was in either sport. Horton won't have to go far for school, staying in his hometown of Norman, just south of Oklahoma City. Not only his he a two-sport star, but he's actually set to play both ways on the diamond as well. Most scouts prefer him as a pitcher, and I'd have to agree with that. Horton is a 6'2" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding an above average slider that could end up a plus pitch if he adds some power to it. As with most high school pitchers, his changeup requires some imagination, but it's there. As you might expect from a quarterback, he's a good athlete with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. There is a lot of baseline ability there to project on, and once (if) he gives up hitting and quarterbacking, he could take some big steps forward. Oklahoma lost its entire weekend rotation in Cade Cavalli (Nationals, first round), Levi Prater (Cardinals, third round), and Dane Acker (A's, fourth round), plus reliever Zack Matthews (Astros, undrafted), so Horton should have every chance to jump into the rotation from day one. Pre-draft profile here.

6. LHP Ricky Tiedemann (my draft rank: 75)
Lakewood HS [CA] -> San Diego State Long Beach CC
Ricky Tiedemann was previously committed to pitch at San Diego State, but after effectively pricing himself out of the draft, he'll head to Long Beach Community College to be eligible right away for the 2021 draft. Personally, I think this could pay off big time for the Los Angeles-area native. Tiedemann has an extremely projectable, extremely athletic 6'4" frame that screams future projection. He has a really loose right arm and an easy, natural operation as well, giving his coaches at LBCC a lot to work with. For now, the fastball sits around 90, but I could easily see him adding significant velocity in the future, perhaps even in his freshman year at LBCC. His changeup is his best pitch for now with great fading action, giving him a reliable offspeed. He has a slider, but it's below average at this point and will need significant refinement. It's really easy to envision Tiedemann getting a lot, a lot better, so even marginal improvement in 2021 could seriously help his draft stock. If he adds a tick or two to his fastball or refines that slider to an average or above average pitch, that should move him into top 50 consideration, and doing both could make him a first rounder. Another plus in Tiedemann's profile is his age, because like Carson Montgomery, he won't turn 18 until August, making him the age of a slightly old high school senior by the time the 2021 draft rolls around. Pre-draft profile here.

7. RHP Tanner Witt (my draft rank: 87)
Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas
The University of Texas had a recruiting class filled with big draft names, but ultimately saw Carson Tucker (Indians, first round), Jared Jones (Pirates, second round), Jared Kelley (White Sox, second round), and Petey Halpin (Indians, third round) go in the top 100 picks. In losing four huge recruits to the draft, Longhorns fans can take solace in that they got one really good pitcher to price himself out. Like Tiedemann, he's about projectability more than anything else, but there is a lot of present ability too. Witt is a towering 6'6" righty out of Houston with a fastball that sits around 90 for the most part, but this spring he added a tick of velocity and sat in the low 90's, reaching back for as much as 95. While that increased velocity was only present for a short time before the shutdown, it was expected anyways and he has a chance to really tack it on in Austin. His curve has some nice depth to it and is an average to above average pitch at present, but again, it's easy to see him adding power as he fills out, which would make it a plus pitch. He also throws a slider and a changeup, which are fairly raw for now but which show promise and could develop into above average pitches in time. He throws strikes and repeats his delivery well, giving him plenty of starter traits to work on. Witt is very much the kind of pitcher that can show up on campus a lanky freshman and come out a bona fide ace, and he could make my #87 ranking look silly three years from now. Additionally, he's young for the class with a July birthday and will also be hitting at UT, where he could surprise some of us with his raw power. Between Witt and rising sophomore Trey Faltine, the Longhorns have two legitimate two-way prospects, though Faltine did not pitch as a freshman. Pre-draft profile here.

8. RHP Ty Floyd (my draft rank: 98)
Rockmart HS [GA] -> Louisiana State
Only the second player on this list, following Ryan Hagenow (Tennessee -> Kentucky), to leave his home state for college, Ty Floyd takes some imagination to project on. Growing up just past the Atlanta suburbs, Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a really loose arm that can run his fastball up to 95. He sits more in the low 90's during his starts, but he does have a tendency to dip a bit later on. He throws a curveball and a changeup that are both pretty raw, though the curve shows promise with nice shape down in the zone. Really, scouts are projecting on the looseness of Floyd's operation and his innate athleticism more than his present ability, and the LSU coaching staff will have some work to do when he arrives on campus. They're returning most of their pitching staff after only losing Cole Henry (Nationals, second round) to the draft, so Floyd is more likely to be a bullpen arm as a freshman, but once guys like Jaden Hill, Landon Marceaux, and AJ Labas presumably get drafted next year, Floyd has a shot to jump into the rotation as a sophomore. By the time he's a junior, if he refines his game into what scouts believe he's capable of, we could have a really exciting arm. There is probably more relief risk than most of the other names on this list, though, and Floyd has a pretty wide range of potential outcomes. Pre-draft profile here.

9. RHP Cam Brown (my draft rank: 111)
Flower Mound HS [TX] -> Texas Christian
Cam Brown had a great summer that put him firmly in top 50 conversations, and a strong spring could have further moved him up boards into first round consideration. However, his spring moved him in the opposite direction, and he'll make the short drive down I-35W to TCU to try to rebuild his stock. At his best over the summer, Brown showed a low to mid 90's fastball that played up due to some crossfire in his delivery, in addition to an above average slider and a solid changeup. However, this spring, the velocity ticked down closer to 90 and his slider looked like a below average to average pitch, and overall he just didn't look like a natural pitcher. At TCU, he has a chance to prove that his brief spring was just a minor blip, and a strong freshman season in 2021 could be enough to completely erase the bad taste in scouts' mouthes. As a 6'3" righty with a durable frame and three potential above average pitches, he has plenty of starter traits and could emerge a first round pick in 2023. At the same time, he still does have to go out and prove it. Scouts will be watching his Horned Frogs career closely to see his progression, as will I with TCU just down the road in Fort Worth.

10. LHP Mason Miller (my draft rank: 113)
Mitchell HS [FL] -> Florida Gulf Coast
Aside from the community college-bound Ricky Tiedemann, all of the previous names in this class are committed to premium baseball programs like Miami, Florida State, and Louisiana State, but Mason Miller is headed to a smaller program in Florida Gulf Coast. There, he'll hope to follow in the footsteps of fellow lefty Chris Sale, the school's biggest name ever. Miller teamed with Reds competitive balance pick Jackson Miller (no relation) at Mitchell High School just north of Tampa, and while he had a shot to go in the fourth or fifth round based on a really nice projection profile. As a 6'3" lefty, his name was already circled on scouts' lists, and a velocity bump this spring that pushed his fastball to around 90 miles per hour really put him on the map. Aside from being a scout's dream as a 6'3" lefty, his best attribute is a potentially plus curveball that gets really high spin rates and can really bring tremendous bite. It's inconsistent for now as he learns to harness its power, but the potential is there. Lastly, his changeup needs projection and could develop in any number of directions. Miller comes from a low three quarters arm slot that puts some nice angle on the ball, but he can yank the ball sometimes and it also makes it tougher for him to stay on top of his big curveball. At FGCU, he'll need to focus on adding more velocity, which should come naturally given his frame, as well as getting more consistent with those secondary pitches. He has a chance to crack the Eagles' rotation right out of the gate, and his game could grow pretty steadily during his time in Fort Myers.

11. LHP Nick Griffin (my draft rank: 119)
Monticello HS [AR] -> Arkansas
As with Texas, Arkansas' fantastic recruiting class got looted during the draft with Masyn Winn (Cardinals, second round), Markevian Hence (Cardinals, competitive balance round), and David Calabrese (Angels, third round) signing pro contracts. Nick Griffin (Monticello) will join fellow small town Arkansan Cayden Wallace (Greenbrier) as major 2020 draft prospects to head to Fayetteville, where he will look to develop into a star. Personally, he reminds me of another name as a high schooler, and Razorbacks fans will really like this one: Asa Lacy. I really, really liked Lacy coming out of high school in Texas in 2017 (and if you read my work, you're probably sick of me bragging about it), and I feel the same way about Griffin. He's a 6'4" lefty with a really loose, really athletic delivery that just screams projection. For now, his fastball sits around 90 but can bump up to 94 at times, and he figures to continuously add velocity as he fills out that frame. There is a slider as well that can be an above average pitch at times, and he adds a curveball and changeup that are pretty nascent. Everything about his game is pretty raw, but I think the Arkansas coaching staff is getting something really exciting to work with. In addition to the projectable frame, loose arm, and great body for pitching, he's relatively young for the class with a June birthday, and he's trending in the right direction. Arkansas is so loaded with talent that he probably won't crack the rotation right away, but he has a chance to follow an Asa Lacy-like rise to stardom. How's that for a prospect?

12. RHP Patrick Reilly (my draft rank: 128)
Christian Brothers HS [NJ] -> Vanderbilt
How would this list be complete without a Vanderbilt arm? In each of the past two seasons, they've landed massive recruits on the mound in Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, and while they lost their top two incoming hitters this year in Robert Hassell (Padres, first round) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (Mets, first round), they did land their top pitcher in Patrick Reilly. A New Jersey private school product like Leiter, Reilly has much less of a track record than his Garden State counterpart, instead jumping onto the map with a huge showing at the WWBA tournament over the fall. In his one start there, his previously fringy fastball sat easily in the low to mid 90's and topped out at 96, while he showed a true power curve that looked plus at its best. Reilly packs a ton of strength into his 6'4" frame that enabled his velocity gains, though aside from that exciting start in the fall, scouts hadn't seen enough of him at the increased velocity to buy him out of that Vanderbilt commitment. It will be really tough to work into that absolutely loaded rotation, especially as a freshman, but once Rocker and Leiter go in the top five picks in 2021, he'll likely have his shot. At Vanderbilt, competing for innings can be just as tough as proving yourself to evaluators, but there is no better place to go and refine his game.

Others (by pre-draft rank):
133. RHP Jason Savacool, Baker HS [NY] -> Maryland
136. LHP Timmy Manning, Cardinal Gibbons HS [FL] -> Florida
157. RHP TJ Nichols, Oakmont HS [CA] -> Arizona
160. RHP Marquis Grissom Jr., Counterpane HS [GA] -> Georgia Tech
Unranked: RHP Max Rajcic, Orange Lutheran HS [CA] -> UCLA

2020 Draft Profile: Tanner Witt

RHP Tanner Witt, Episcopal HS [TX]
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 7/11/2002.  Commitment: Texas.

Kevin Witt was a first rounder out of Jacksonville, Florida in 1994 before hitting 15 home runs over parts of five seasons in the majors. 26 years later, his son, Tanner, won't match him in terms of draft position (at least not out of high school), but he could absolutely outplay his dad in the majors. He's actually one of the better two-way prospects in the country, though his future is more likely on the mound.

Witt stands out most due to his projectability. With a very skinny 6'6" frame that has room for plenty more good weight, he figures to add plenty of velocity and power to his already solid stuff. He has a little bit of windmill action in his arm path, running fastballs around 90 but touching as high as 95 just before the shutdown. He pairs that fastball with a very solid curveball, one that shows good shape but which could use to add some power. His slider and changeup are both in the early stages of their development, but he has shown feel for them and could have a four pitch mix in time.

Though he's lanky, Witt is very coordinated on the mound and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, repeating his delivery fairly consistently. That gives him solid command and helps further project velocity gains as he fills out. Witt is also young for the class with a July birthday, adding another line to the list of reasons he could be an ace.

It's an interesting study here, because Witt has all these reasons why he should get better – he's tall, he's coordinated, he's young, etc. But aside from the brief velocity gains we saw this spring, he still remains a work in progress with a lot to prove. He's supposedly a very tough sign away from Texas, where he could go on to take all those projected steps forward and become a first round arm in 2023. If a team likes him enough to pony up the big signing bonus that will keep him from Austin, it will likely happen in the second round, though for a lot of teams he's likely more of a third round talent. Texas has a loaded recruiting class this year that also includes Jared Jones, Carson Tucker, Petey Halpin, and the arguably the top high school pitcher in the class, Jared Kelley, so Longhorn baseball fans could have a lot to look forward to.

2020 game action (check out that Texas-sized scoreboard)