2020 Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

1-17: 2B Nick Yorke, Archbishop Mitty HS (CA)
3-89: 3B Blaze Jordan, DeSoto Central HS (MS)
4-118: LHP Jeremy Wu-Yelland, Hawaii
5-148: LHP Shane Drohan, Florida State

The Red Sox shocked everyone by taking Nick Yorke in the middle of the first round, he who ranked 96th on the Baseball America 500 and 139th on MLB Pipeline, but as you'll read below, I don't think that pick was nearly as bad as it sounds. The money they saved on the pick helped net Blaze Jordan in the third round, with some of the biggest power from a high schooler in recent memory, and together the two could do some great things in the Red Sox lineup. The later picks aren't as exciting, though both Jeremy Wu-Yelland and Shane Drohan come with some moderate upside. Overall, this was a very risky draft for the Red Sox, as their top two picks come with very low floors with regard to the position they were drafted at and in a realistic worst case scenario, Boston could come away with very little if anything to show from their 2020 draft class.
Full index of team profiles here.

1-17: 2B Nick Yorke, Archbishop Mitty HS, CA (my rank: 73)
Lots of Red Sox fans are probably angry at this pick, but I urge them to look past the online rankings and understand that the rankings aren't everything, not even close. Now, how Bostonians feel rooting for a middle infield of "D., Jeter" and "N. Yorke" is another question. Anyways, I was a big fan of Yorke's before the draft, ranking him 73rd on my list – 23 spots ahead of Baseball America and 66 spots ahead of MLB Pipeline. He's hit over power for now, but the overall bat is very enticing. He makes very consistent contact from the right side, using a quick but powerful swing that generates a lot of natural leverage without him having to swing out of his shoes. That's why I could see him easily tapping above average raw power down the line despite standing only six feet tall, and he should be able to do so without sacrificing his hit tool. In all, I see a 15-25 home run hitter annually with high on-base percentages. Defensively, the San Jose native was drafted as a second baseman but has shown good ability at shortstop in the past, though he has been recovering from a shoulder injury that has sapped his arm strength, at least temporarily. I think there are multiple reasons the Red Sox defied the Holy MLB.com Rankings and drafted Yorke so early. Most importantly, his stock was likely higher within the industry than it was to the baseball writing community, i.e. the people who make the rankings. Additionally, since they didn't have a second round pick, they didn't think he would be available when they picked again at 89 and wanted to get their guy, and the fact that they could go under slot to do so was a bonus. Slot value here is $3.61 million, and even though Yorke has a strong commitment to Arizona, I think he still takes a significant discount off of that to head across the country to Boston. Pre-draft profile here.

3-89: 3B Blaze Jordan, DeSoto Central HS, MS (my rank: 86)
If Yorke was an under the radar name in the first round, then Blaze Jordan is the exact opposite. Famous for hitting 500+ foot home runs as young as 13 years old, Jordan possesses plus-plus raw power that rivals any high schooler in the last few seasons. He's consistently won home run derbies on the showcase circuit, earned a commitment to Mississippi State, and reclassified prior to the summer in order to be draft eligible in 2020. He was the single youngest player drafted this year, not turning 18 until December (he was born 12/19/2002 if you want to feel old), and at times that might have hurt him. He was uneven on the summer showcase circuit against older competition, and he hasn't quite proven he can tap his prodigious raw power against advanced pitching. That said, he has a really loose swing from the right side, and some mechanical adjustments to give him more loft could help that power play better in games. Additionally, there is a good chance that if he were to go hit on the summer showcase circuit this year against age-appropriate competition, he would do significantly better, and we wouldn't be wondering about the hit tool as much as we are now. The Red Sox clearly see that in him and think the extra development time they'll have with him will pay off, and they see him as a potential 30-40 home run hitter in the big leagues. They drafted him as a third baseman, but he's more likely to end up at first base down the road, which would put a lot of pressure on his bat. Slot value is $667,900 here, but it will take significantly more than that to sign the Memphis-area native away from his Mississippi State commitment. Pre-draft profile here.

4-118: LHP Jeremy Wu-Yelland, Hawaii (unranked)
The straight line distance between the University of Hawaii and Fenway Park is over five thousand miles, which means that he's closer to Shanghai than his new home and Bostonians are closer to Moscow than their new fourth round pick. That's my geography tidbit of the day. Jeremy Wu-Yelland is a product of the Spokane area and has gotten better and better over his three years on the islands, dropping his ERA from 6.14 as a freshman to 4.86 as a sophomore and 0.69 as a junior. He's a 6'2" lefty with a loose, easy delivery that produces low to mid 90's fastballs and a pair of solid offspeeds in a curve and a changeup. That average to above average stuff was on display when he struck out six over four shutout innings against Vanderbilt this spring, raising his stock. However, Wu-Yelland struggles to throw strikes at times, with 55 career walks in 88.2 innings and 15 in 26.2 innings in the Cape Cod League last summer. Given his ease of operation and age (he just turned 21 in June), the Red Sox hope they can get him more consistent with his release point and therefore more consistent with his command. In that case, he could easily be a #4 starter, but if he can't significantly improve that command, he's likely a long relief type. Slot value is $487,900, though I expect him to take a discount.

5-148: LHP Shane Drohan, Florida State (unranked)
The Sox finished it up by grabbing a second straight college left hander, Shane Drohan out of Florida State. He was a well-known prospect coming out of the South Florida high school ranks in 2017, and while he never quite broke out, he put up a solid enough track record with a 3.76 ERA and a 98/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings between his sophomore and junior seasons. He's a 6'3" lefty with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curve, and a solid changeup, but he's a mediocre strike thrower who struggles to hit his spots. The stuff is good but not great, so at present, he's not a big league starter. The good news is that he's close, so a little refinement in his stuff (perhaps his changeup) or a small step forward towards average command could make him a #4 or #5 starter. If not, he can fall back on being a fastball/curveball lefty reliever and sit more consistently in the mid 90's. I don't love the pick, I don't hate it, I'm more just okay with it. Slot value is $364,400, which sounds about right for him.

Undrafted: RHP Brian Van Belle, Miami (unranked)
The Miami Hurricanes rotation included two top fifty picks in Slade Cecconi (33rd, Diamondbacks) and Chris McMahon (46th, Rockies), but it was Brian Van Belle who served as the ace of that staff. The Broward CC transfer has been lights out over his two seasons in the Miami rotation, going 12-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a 122/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings. He has a fastball around 90 that he commands really well, controlling the strike zone masterfully and consistently making his average stuff play up. The major downside to the profile is age, as he's a redshirt senior who is set to turn 24 in September, making him older than Rafael Devers (and me). There's a chance he could work his way forward as a #4/#5 starter if the stuff ticks up a little bit in pro ball, but the Red Sox might stick him in the bullpen eventually to get him more consistently into the low 90's.

Undrafted: IF Jake Mackenzie, Fordham (unranked)
The Red Sox did pick up one New Englander in their free agent class in Wallingford, Connecticut native Jake Mackenzie. Mackenzie has been a consistent performer for three years at Fordham, hitting .306/.381/.488 with 12 home runs, 84 stolen bases, and a 73/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 career games. A bit undersized at 5'10", he packs a lot of punch for a smaller guy and shows solid raw power that he gets to in games (including the Cape Cod League), and while he has an average hit tool, he does a pretty good job limiting his strikeouts. He's a plus runner who finished fourth in all of Division I baseball last year by stealing 43 bases in 62 games in 2019, and with 34 as a freshman and seven this year, that's 84 total. He probably profiles as a utility infielder, but it's a broad set of skills that's nice to see and it's a nice pickup in the UDFA market, especially as a hometown player.

2017 Draft Demographics: Florida Prep Talent

First Tier: Mark Vientos, Jeter Downs, M.J. Melendez
Second Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Jake Eder
Third Tier: Joe Perez, James Marinan, C.J. Van Eyk, Shane Drohan
Others: Hunter Ruth, Sam McMillan, Tommy Mace, Zach Jackson

If the SEC is the epitome of college baseball, then Florida is where you go for the best high school talent. Miami-area schools like American Heritage (Vientos), Westminster Christian (Melendez), and Archbishop McCarthy (Perez) dominate the high school scene year in and year out, and many of the game's top players were drafted out of high school in Florida. That includes Alex Rodriguez (Westminster Christian), Chipper Jones (Bolles), Manny Machado (Brito Miami), Jose Fernandez (Alonso), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade), Ian Desmond (Sarasota), Gio Gonzalez (Monsignor Pace), and Eric Hosmer (American Heritage), just to name a few.

Tier I (Vientos, Downs, Melendez)
Mark Vientos of Eric Hosmer's alma mater, American Heritage HS, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft. The youngest player to even be considered for my top 100 (he turns 18 in December), Vientos has a big bat from the right side and the ability to play a solid third base, earning Manny Machado-lite comparisons. He's been up and down with the bat this spring, but a team banking on his youth will compare this to what most players do during their junior seasons in high school, and he could come off the board in the first round or outside the top 50. Jeter Downs, meanwhile, is universally loved, and not just because he has the best baseball name in this entire draft class (sorry, D'Mond LaFond). Playing at Gio Gonzalez's former school, Pace HS, he has endeared himself to scouts with his scrappy style of play and improving bat. The 5'11" infielder could be similar to Dustin Pedroia, and he has pushed himself into late first round/supplemental round conversations with his strong spring. We went over M.J. Melendez of Westminster Christian, the school that produced Alex Rodriguez, at length in the catchers' discussion, but he's a power bat with swing and miss concerns that should be able to stay behind home plate with his strong defense.

Tier II (Seise, McConnell, Eder)
While Tier I is made up of players from south Florida, Tier II moves up north a bit. Chris Seise comes from the Orlando area, and he and Space Coast area star Brady McConnell are easy to compare to each other. While Seise has improved his stock significantly this spring, McConnell came in as a possible first rounder, though his up and down season has put him about on par with Seise. Seise has the more conventional swing, while McConnell is similar to Arizona first baseman J.J. Matijevic in that he contracts and unloads on the ball to generate power. This has led to swing and miss from McConnell, and I get a little nervous that he won't be able to adjust to pro ball because of it. Both are solid shortstops, and while neither is likely to be forced to second or third base, McConnell is an even stronger bet to stay on shortstop. Lastly, we go back back down to south Florida for Jake Eder. A 6'4" lefty committed to Vanderbilt, Eder's ceiling is as high as any on this list, but he comes with a lot of risk. He sits in the low 90's now, but he struggles to repeat his mechanics even from pitch to pitch and will need significant coaching.

Tier III (Perez, Marinan, Van Eyk, Drohan)
Joe Perez, of national powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy, only came to pitching recently and is understandably raw. Combine that with the fact that he's just three days older than his crosstown rival, Mark Vientos, and he gets a lot of benefits of the doubt. His fastball can already run into the mid to upper 90's, and his cutter/slider is coming alone nicely as well. He has a high ceiling as a #2 starter or closer, but he went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of the spring and carries a huge amount of risk. He also may be a tough sign, as he has a very strong commitment to Miami. James Marinan is a similar pitcher to Perez in that he lives on his fastball, which out of nowhere is suddenly in the mid 90's, and he has a classic pitcher's frame at 6'5". Also like Perez, he is committed to Miami, and his success will ride on his ability to develop his secondaries. C.J. Van Eyk, one of only two Tampa-area players on this list (the other being Tommy Mace in the "others" section), has the stuff and overall pitchability to get top 50 consideration, but his injury uncertainty drops him out of the top 100 for most. The 6'2" righty throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, controls it well enough, and has arguably the best curveball in the state. However, he was shut down halfway through the spring and has not returned, raising medical question marks. Lastly, Shane Drohan is the only pitcher who can challenge Van Eyk's curveball, but unlike Van Eyk, the lefty Drohan's velocity sits more in the upper 80's. With a similar 6'2" frame to Van Eyk, he should hope to add velocity, but overall his combination of floor and ceiling is pretty mediocre.