Reviewing the Pittsburgh Pirates Farm System

The Pirates' system isn't very deep, but it has quite a few exciting prospects at the top, most notably starting pitcher Mitch Keller. Aside from Keller, it's pretty hitter-heavy, especially now with Shane Baz dealt to the Rays. Among those hitters, the Pirates have all the bases covered with power bats, on-base guys, outfielders, infielders, etc. The system is fairly average overall, though it could have been better if the Pirates had gotten more in the Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen trades.

Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A West Virginia Power*, Short Season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
*Class A Affiliate will move from Charleston, WV to Greensboro, NC in 2019

The Headliner: RHP Mitch Keller
22 year old Mitch Keller is the most important player in this farm system for multiple reasons. First off, he's their best prospect by a good margin, but in a system that really lacks in pitching depth, Keller keeps it from being completely empty on that front. In 2018, he went 12-4 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 135/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.1 innings at High A Bradenton, AA Altoona, and AAA Indianapolis, dominating the two lower levels before holding his own at the highest. He throws mid 90's with a good curveball, a decent changeup, and great command, looking like a good bet to become a future #2 starter on the right days. On the wrong days, his command can still get away from him, but those days are not common and he should be ready for the major league rotation early in 2019, perhaps even on Opening Day. I don't think he ends up an ace but he should be an immediate contributor and should hold down a #2 or #3 spot in the rotation for a long time.

High Minors Infielders: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, 1B Will Craig, 2B Kevin Newman, 2B Kevin Kramer, SS Cole Tucker, and SS Stephen Alemais
This is by far the deepest contingent in the Pirates' farm system. They have plenty of AA and AAA infielders who will be ready in 2019, and they should have no problem plugging holes there from their farm system. The biggest name among them is 21 year old Ke'Bryan Hayes, a third baseman with a major league ready bat already. In 2018, he slashed .293/.375/.444 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 84/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 117 games at AA Altoona, showing an all around skill set that could make him a five tool player at the major league level. He has a mature approach at the plate, can steal a base, and plays great defense at third base, with the only question being his power development. He's 6'1", solidly built, and hits plenty of extra base hits, so scouts have always thought the home run power would manifest itself, but to this point it has not. If his power does not develop further, he's probably an average third baseman with a good glove, which is a win in its own right, but if he does figure out how to get the ball over the fence more often he could be a star in Pittsburgh. Across the diamond, 24 year old Will Craig hit .248/.321/.448 with 20 home runs and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Altoona, showing plenty of power but not always getting to it. The first baseman will need to get to that power because of his limited value on defense, though right now he looks like a bench bat rather than a starter. 25 year olds Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer have a lot in common. Besides their first names and the fact that their last names make for fun Seinfeld jokes, they were drafted together in 2015 with Newman being a first round pick (19th overall) out of Arizona and Kramer coming in the second round (62nd overall) out of UCLA. Both are middle infielders known for hit over power, and both reached the majors for the first time in 2018. Newman slashed .302/.350/.407 with four home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at AAA Indianapolis, then hit .209/.247/.231 in 31 major league games. Meanwhile, Kramer slashed .311/.365/.492 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen base, and a 127/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Indianapolis, then .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games. Newman has the steadier glove and is more likely to stick at shortstop, while Kramer is more likely a second baseman. At the plate, Newman makes better contact and is more likely to hit in the majors, but Kramer had a power outburst at AAA in 2018 and posted better overall numbers. I think that Newman is a better bet to be a solid utility man for the Pirates, while Kramer might break through as a starter or end up bouncing between AAA and the majors as a journeyman. 22 year old Cole Tucker has a similar profile to both, but he's younger and doesn't share a Kevin or Seinfeld connection. Tucker was a high school draftee in 2014, coming out of a Phoenix high school in the first round (24th overall) and working his way up relatively slowly. In 2018, he slashed .259/.333/.356 with five home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Altoona, showing off great speed like Newman as well as a very competent glove at shortstop. However, his bat is a bit light, and while he is good at drawing walks, he probably ends up a utility infielder if he doesn't add at least a little bit of punch. However, if he can keep his on-base percentages high enough to allow him to steal a lot of bases, he could squeeze his way into a starting lineup even without power. Lastly, 23 year old Stephen Alemais is definitely a utility prospect, having slashed .279/.346/.346 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 69/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Altoona. His skill set is similar to Newman's overall, with a good glove for shortstop and a very good approach, but he has even less sock in his bat than Newman with virtually no power. His glove will get him to the majors, but he'll have to get on base to stay there as a utility glove.

And Four Outfielders: Bryan Reynolds, Jason Martin, Jared Oliva, and Tyler Gaffney
There are four upper level outfielders to track, and all are recent additions to the system. 23 year old Bryan Reynolds, who came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade, had a decent year at AA Altoona by slashing .302/.381/.438 with seven home runs and a 73/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, showing an advanced approach and the ability to barrel the ball up and get on base, but with fringy power. He could push his way to a starting spot if he continues to post high on-base percentages like he has been in the minors, but somehow adding more power will be the best way to crack the everyday lineup. Otherwise, he's likely a fourth outfielder, albeit a good one. 23 year old Jason Martin came over in the Gerrit Cole trade, ironically having attended the same Los Angeles-area high school as Cole. He had a good year in the upper minors, slashing .274/.337/.429 with 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Altoona and AAA Indianapolis. He was much better at Altoona (.325/.392/.522) than at Indianapolis (.211/.270/.319), which is a bit worrisome but which could also be ironed out with more reps in 2019. Like Reynolds, he looks like a fourth outfielder for now but could push his way to starting if he can make adjustments at the plate and carry his consistent hard contact up to the next level. 23 year old Jared Oliva was just drafted in the seventh round out of Arizona in 2017, but he made a bit of a name for himself with a solid season this year at High A Bradenton, slashing .275/.354/.424 with nine home runs, 33 stolen bases, and a 91/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games. He's kind of a fringy hitter both in terms of contact and power, but he can draw a walk and steal a base, making him an average overall offensive contributor. He's also average on defense, playing a decent center field, so he could work his way up to the majors as a fourth outfielder. Unlike Reynolds and Martin, though, I think it's unlikely that he manages to grab a starting role. Lastly, 27 year old Tyler Gaffney isn't exactly a conventional prospect, having spent the 2014-2017 seasons bouncing around NFL practice squads and injured reserve lists as a running back, technically winning Super Bowls XLIX and LI without actually playing a game. Now he's back in baseball, and he slashed .244/.353/.388 with six home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 54/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at High A Bradenton and Altoona. He's unlikely to make an impact on the Pirates, but he's an interesting story to watch.

Lower Level Hitters: 3B Oneil Cruz, OF Travis Swaggerty, OF Calvin Mitchell, OF Lolo Sanchez, OF Conner Uselton, and OF Brett Kinneman
The Pirates have a good amount of high ceiling talent down at the bottom of the system, though aside from Swaggerty, they all have high bust potential. You typically like depth this low in the system, though while the Pirates don't have that, at least there are quite a few with high ceilings. 20 year old Oneil Cruz is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, having just slashed .286/.343/.488 with 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 100/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at Class A West Virginia. He has a pretty unique prospect profile, with a recent growth spurt leaving him at 6'6" and potentially forcing him to move off of shortstop. He's still very athletic for his size, but the growth spurt affects his hitting as well. His fairly advanced approach allowed him to handle Class A pitching very well as a teenager this past season, and his big swing produced 46 extra base hits (including 14 home runs). However, he still swings and misses a lot because of the length of his swing, so he'll have to continue to tighten it up as he gets more coordinated. The ceiling is exceptional here, as he could end up an impact player both on offense and defense, but the risk is high as well. 21 year old Travis Swaggerty was just drafted in the first round (10th overall) out of South Alabama in 2018, slashing a respectable .239/.322/.383 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 58/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in short season ball and at Class A. Though he's just 5'11", he has nice power as well as a patient approach at the plate, which will bode well for him both in the on-base percentage and slugging percentage departments, plus his speed enables him to steal bases and play a good center field. Overall, he has five-tool upside, and with his patient, a advanced approach, his only real downside is in the strikeout department. Keeping his strikeouts down, which is not a given, will help him be a potential All Star in the majors, and he has a fairly high floor as a fourth outfielder. 19 year old Calvin Mitchell surprised some evaluators with a good year with Class A West Virginia this year, slashing .280/.344/.427 with ten home runs and a 109/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games. He was at one point considered a potential first round pick in 2017 before a rough spring dropped him to the second round (50th overall), where the Pirates took him with hopes of getting him back on the right track. His solid performance in Class A as a teenager showed that he is, though the Pirates do want that power to develop because he's not great defensively in the outfield. If the power does develop, he could end up a starter in Pittsburgh, but if it doesn't, or if it causes him to strike out more, there is bust risk at the higher levels. 19 year old Lolo Sanchez is a bit more under the radar than the 6'6" shortstop and high draft picks ahead of him on this list, but he's a solid sleeper prospect with breakout potential for 2019. This year, he slashed .243/.322/.328 with four home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 72/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A West Virginia, playing good outfield defense along the way. His stats don't stand out, but he doesn't turn 20 until April, by which time he'll already be in High A, and he seems to have a good grasp of handling older pitching. Though he lacks power, the rest of his game is pretty advanced and those guys can sneak up on you when they reach the majors. 20 year old Conner Uselton has a similar profile to Mitchell, though he has been slow in getting his pro career started due to injuries. In 2018, he slashed .225/.280/.250 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 43 games at rookie level Bristol, making it more or less a lost season for him. Once he gets healthy and going in 2019, he has a chance to show off some of the best raw power in the system, though he will have to watch his strikeouts. Consider him a wild card at this point, one who could shake off the slow start and end up being a 30 homer bat in the majors or who could end up fizzling out in A ball. Lastly, I'm a fan of 22 year old Brett Kinneman, a seventh round pick out of NC State in 2018 who slashed .253/.344/.413 with four home runs and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games in short season ball. He has some strikeout issues and isn't as polished as some other prospects his age, but he has a ton of power, draws plenty of walks, and could be a sleeper prospect who opens eyes in 2019. Keep an eye on him.

The Pitchers After Keller: LHP Brandon Waddell, RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Luis Escobar, RHP Travis MacGregor, RHP Steven Jennings, and RHP Braxton Ashcraft
It's a good thing that the Pirates have Mitch Keller, because otherwise, there really isn't much pitching depth in this system. Some guys near the top look like they could be marginal contributors, while others in the middle come with some upside and risk but aren't anything exciting yet, and the only other impact prospect beyond Keller was Shane Baz, who was traded to Tampa in the Chris Archer deal. It also doesn't help that they have failed to sign two high draft picks over the last couple of seasons, including 2016 41st overall pick Nick Lodolo and 2018 36th overall pick Gunnar Hoglund, who are now pitching at TCU and Ole Miss, respectively. We'll start with 24 year old Brandon Waddell, a starter who posted a 3.59 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 103/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis, performing better at the lower level (2.68 ERA) than at the higher one (4.19 ERA). The 6'3" lefty is a pretty average pitcher across the board, showing a low 90's fastball with a decent slider and changeup that he controls well enough, making him a candidate to be a #5 starter in the majors but not much more. He could be up in 2019, and if he doesn't make the rotation, the Pirates may be inclined to use him as a long reliever. 25 year old Clay Holmes is a slightly different pitcher, having posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings, all but six of which came with Indianapolis. He also threw 26.1 major league innings, posting a 6.84 ERA and an ugly 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. Holmes doesn't throw all that hard either, but his fastball has movement and he can turn it into a cutter when he wants to, though the rest of his stuff, like Waddell's, is average. I think he ends up a reliever, where his stuff can jump a little, and he could contribute from that role in 2019. Behind Waddell and Holmes is 22 year old Luis Escobar, who posted a 4.14 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings between High A Bradenton and Altoona. His stuff is better than both Waddell's and Holmes', with his fastball sitting comfortably in the low 90's and hitting the mid 90's and his curveball featuring more power. However, his strike throwing ability has not come along yet, so that will be the next step in developing as a starter. If not, he could make a pretty good reliever, but the upside is a little higher than the two names above him on this list. 21 year old Travis MacGregor had a nice season, posting a 3.18 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings, mostly at Class A West Virginia. He throws just as hard if not harder than Escobar, though the rest of his game is pretty raw and he'll need to improve his secondary stuff as he climbs the ladder. He's another pitcher in the "starter for now, possibly a reliever later" group. However, we'll have to wait to find out because he'll miss 2019 with Tommy John surgery. 20 year old Steven Jennings, a second round pick (42nd overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2017, has been slow to get things going in the minors, posting a 4.82 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 53/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. Ironically, he's a more complete pitcher than perhaps any name above him on this list except for Waddell, throwing in the low 90's with a full assortment of secondary pitches, all of which he can command reasonably well. However, he hasn't been able to turn anything into a weapon yet, hence his struggles in the Appalachian League, so the Pirates will have to continue to work with him to ensure he can continue to learn to use what he has to keep hitters off balance. 19 year old Braxton Ashcraft was just drafted in the second round (51st overall) out of a Waco high school in 2018, just getting his start with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.2 innings in complex ball. He throws a good fastball/slider combination, and at 6'5" he's projectable enough to add more velocity, but obviously he is young and raw and will need time to develop. There is mid rotation starter upside but of course plenty of risk.

2017 Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

First 5 rounds: Shane Baz (1-12), Steve Jennings (2-42), Calvin Mitchell (2-50), Conner Uselton (CBB-72), Dylan Busby (3-88), Jason Delay (4-118), Deon Stafford (5-148)
Also notable: Jared Oliva (7-208), Blake Weiman (8-238), Mason Martin (17-508)

The Pirates had five of the first 88 picks, and they decided to front-loaded their draft, going overslot with three of their first four picks before going underslot in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds. Each of their first four picks were high schoolers, and they ultimately looked for upside in this draft. There is a lot of potential impact talent here, but a lot of it is high risk as well. If one of them turns into a star, though, they'll be happy.

1-12: RHP Shane Baz (my rank: 9)
This is a great pick. I have long been a proponent of Baz, a high school pitcher from Houston-area powerhouse Concordia Lutheran, which also produced Pirates first rounder Ke'Bryan Hayes in 2015. For some reason, many pre-season lists left Baz out of the top 30, with MLB.com dropping him from the top 40, but I originally slotted him in the mid-20's because I really liked his upside. As it turns out, The Wizard of Baz (that's his Twitter handle and soon-to-be nickname) had a terrific spring and rocketed himself up draft boards, landing himself in my top ten and getting himself drafted twelfth overall. Baz is a high energy right handed pitcher who has pretty much everything going for him except his handedness. With a June birthday, he's young for the class, and he's an athletically built 6'3". Baz throws in the mid 90's and can hit the upper 90's on occasion, coming in with a full arsenal that includes a cutter/slider, curveball, and changeup. His fastball has good running action, his curveball has big break, the slider has hard bite, and the changeup has good sink. He doesn't always command it consistently at this point, but that's to be expected, and he has real top of the rotation upside. To top it all off, he's been said to be an extremely grounded but competitive kid who will be easily coachable. Baz signed for $4.1 million, which was $68,000 above slot and just enough to sign him away from a very strong commitment to TCU.

2-42: RHP Steven Jennings (my rank: 48)
For some reason, there seemed to be no public video available of Jennings before the draft, making it difficult for me to evaluate him. The Tennessee high schooler was a pop-up guy, coming back from an ACL injury to throw low to mid 90's with a pair of breaking balls, though he needs to work on his changeup. He doesn't have the most electric arm, but he has a good combination of velocity and stuff, and it could be enough to make him a mid-rotation starter. Jennings signed for $1.9 million, which is $264,500 over slot.

2-50: OF Calvin Mitchell (my rank: 76)
Mitchell came into the season in the first round conversation, having shown an advanced, powerful bat on the showcase circuit. However, the California high schooler changed his approach during the season, selling out for power and looking lost at the plate for much of the season. He won't be a butcher in the field, but he's also not going to win any Gold Gloves as a left fielder, so he will have to hit to provide value. He's a very high risk pick, but he could pay off as a 20 homer, .270ish hitter. Mitchell signed for just over $1.35 million, an at-slot bonus.

CBB-72: OF Conner Uselton (my rank: 60)
Uselton is a high schooler from Oklahoma, where he generates big time, hard to find power from a big swing. His big question mark going forward will be contact, because he may not be able to get the bat to the ball enough to tap into his plus power. He's somewhat similar to Brewers competitive balance pick Tristen Lutz, though the contact concerns are more pronounced. A former quarterback, Uselton should be able to play an above-average right field with his solid speed and cannon arm. He signed for $900,000, which is $96,000 over slot.

3-88: 1B/3B Dylan Busby (unranked)
Busby missed my top 150 due to pronounced contact concerns, but the Florida State star has massive power potential. This year, he slashed .315/.399/.597 with 15 home runs for the Seminoles, using his long arms to send pitches flying out of ballparks. When the 'Noles came to Virginia Tech for a weekend series, I saw him blast one out to left field that seemed like it would never come down. However, he slumped hard during the first half of the season and even though he righted the ship, he still struck out in 22% of his plate appearances, and I'm not so sure of his ability to improve his contact as he moves up. Busby signed for $575,000, which is $51,600 below slot.

7-208: OF Jared Oliva (unranked)
The Arizona outfielder had a breakout year this year, slashing .321/.385/.498 with four home runs as a junior, but scouts see more power to come without sacrificing contact. He has a clean swing and I can see him adding some pop, but I'm not sold on his ability to do so and I'm not sure he'll be able to escape a tweener profile, not defending enough for center field but not hitting enough for an outfield corner. He signed for $200,000, at slot for the 208th pick,

Others: 4th rounder Jason Delay has been Vanderbilt's catcher for four years, proving to be an excellent defender who could win Gold Gloves if he hits enough to make it to the majors. His bat was nothing special during his first three seasons in Nashville, but he did slash .309/.385/.444 with a pair of home runs as a senior, making it at least somewhat less unreasonable that he could be a future back-up catcher. He is a catcher through and through, working with pitchers well, so worst case scenario is that he helps develop some of the Pirates' young pitching. 5th rounder Deon Stafford is also a college catcher, but he's Delay's polar opposite. The St. Joe's star slashed .395/.486/.702 with 18 home runs as a sophomore, but slumped to .288/.464/.521 with eight home runs as a junior. His swing isn't in the zone for long, and he swung and missed more than evaluators had hoped, but the power is definitely there and he could pull it all together to put up Brian McCann type numbers. Unlike Delay, he's not a great defender, with questions over whether he can stick behind the plate. 8th rounder Blake Weiman struggled for two years as a member of Kansas' rotation, but he broke out upon a move to the bullpen, going 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, striking out 55 and walking just five in 45 innings. He throws right around 90 with an average slider, but everything plays up because he commands his pitches so well. The 6'5" lefty didn't have the stamina to pitch out of the rotation, but he could work his way up as a long reliever. 17th rounder Mason Martin signed for $225,000 over slot as a high schooler from Washington. He shows big power and is a similar player to third rounder Dylan Busby, struggling with contact at times but wowing scouts with his home runs. He's a high risk project, but he could pay dividends for the Bucs down the line.