Sunday, October 23, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the SEC East

2022 draftees: 41. Top school: Tennessee (10)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/17/2021, full SEC)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-25, Yankees: OF Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt)
1-28, Astros: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee)
1C-31, Rockies: OF Sterlin Thompson (Florida)
CBA-38, Rockies: OF Jordan Beck (Tennessee)
2-44, Pirates: LHP Hunter Barco (Florida)
2-52, Mets: RHP Blade Tidwell (Tennessee)
CBB-67, Orioles: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)

Last year, I left the SEC as one conference, but now that an already incredibly deep conference is getting even deeper with the help of the transfer portal era, I had to split it into two. The SEC East, which contains seven teams, saw 41 players drafted and only Missouri and powerhouse Florida, ironically enough, failed to have five players hear their name called. Even though they fell to the bottom of the conference with four, all four Gators went in the first ninety picks. Last year, each of the first four players drafted from the SEC East were outfielders, but this is a conference known for its gauntlet of arms and six of the top eight prospects and each of the first three players that missed the list are pitchers. Let's take a look at the top ten prospects from South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 10/26/2001. Hometown: Evans, GA.
2022: 10-0, 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB in 79 innings.
Last year, Tennessee was the most dominant team in college baseball for most of the season and led the SEC East with ten players drafted, and they return in 2023 with not just the best prospect in the division, but likely the best pitcher in the entire draft class heading into the season. Chase Dollander began his career at Georgia Southern near his hometown in the Augusta area, but transferred to Tennessee as a sophomore and just dominated the SEC on all fronts. At this point, he's pretty much the ideal pitching prospect. Dollander sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 99 when he wants to, so triple digits will certainly be on the figurative radar for 2023. Beyond its velocity, it's an explosive fastball that carries from a fairly low release point with strong extension, getting on hitters in a hurry. He throws two breaking balls highlighted by a plus slider with late bite, as well as a deeper curveball, and his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. It's truly explosive stuff that would be hard to handle even if hitters were able to get ahead in the count and look for hangers, but that's not all. The 6'3" lefty also has a very athletic, efficient delivery that enables him to pound the strike zone and get ahead in the count in a hurry, and he never walked more than two batters in any of his 14 starts last year while striking out 35.3% of his opponents. With his combination of explosive stuff, athleticism, durability, and command, it's really hard to poke any holes in this profile and he has a chance to go first overall if he continues to throw like he did in 2022.

2. OF Wyatt Langford, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 225 lbs. Born 11/15/2001. Hometown: Trenton, FL.
2022: 26 HR, .355/.447/.719, 7 SB, 44/36 K/BB in 66 games.
Up in the North Florida town of Gainesville, they pull most of their talent from larger hotbeds to the south such as Miami, Tampa, and Orlando, but the outfield was full of local kids like Jud Fabian (Ocala), Sterlin Thompson (Ocala), and Wyatt Langford (Trenton). Fabian and Thompson both went in the top forty picks at various points, but Langford has a chance to beat both the Ocala boys by a good margin. He earned just four at bats as a freshman in 2021, but took the conference by storm in 2022 with an incredible sophomore season in which he led the SEC with 26 home runs and 184 total bases and tied Dylan Crews (LSU) for the conference lead with 73 runs scored. Langford packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame, channeling it efficiently into a smooth right handed swing that keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time while still creating loft. An advanced hitter, he uses the whole field effectively with few holes in his swing, and can easily spread out that power by getting his arms extended and taking you deep to right field. He held strong strikeout (14.5%) and walk (11.9%) rates in 2022, though as an outfielder looking to go near the very top of the draft, he'd do well for himself to up the latter a bit to potentially eclipse the former. That's nitpicky given he really doesn't have problems with swing and miss, especially considering his plus power, but that's how it goes in the top ten picks. Defensively, Langford's above average speed gives him a chance to stick in center field, and a team that believes in his glove might give him a long look in those top couple of picks. If he slows down at all though, or if he ends up on a team with a bona fide center fielder already on the roster, he may move to left field. That would put pressure on his bat and may move him back closer to a team picking in the 8-15 range if that's how teams evaluate him, but there is plenty, plenty enough bat to profile in that role. At his peak, Langford has a chance for 30+ home runs per season with solid or better on-base percentages.

3. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 3/1/2002. Hometown: Thomasville, GA.
2022 (@ Southern Miss): 6-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 140/33 K/BB in 90 innings.
One of the top transfers in the entire country this year, Hurston Waldrep dominated Conference USA last year and finished eighth in the nation with 140 strikeouts for Southern Miss. After teaming with fellow top draft prospect Tanner Hall in the Golden Eagles rotation, he heads across the Gulf to Florida, where he'll be gunning for one of the most coveted Friday night roles in the country. The stuff is absolutely there – Waldrep sits in the mid 90's with his fastball that can touch 99, coming in with explosive ride that makes it a similar pitch velocity and movement-wise to Chase Dollander's fastball. While Dollander has better command and is the better overall prospect, Waldrep's secondaries do make it close. He throws a power slider in the upper 80's with hard sweeping action, and his deep hammer curveball has knee-buckling bite to give hitters another thing to worry about. Additionally, he's been working on a splitter that looks above average at its best, making for arguably the best four pitch mix in the country. The 6'2" righty comes in with an uptempo delivery, taking advantage of his quick twitch athleticism and exploding towards the plate. He repeats it well, though his command is just average for now and will be something to watch against those disciplined SEC lineups. If he can continue to pound the strike zone and miss bats with his devastating stuff, he has a chance to be the first pitcher off the board.

4. OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 160 lbs. Born 12/2/2001. Hometown: Hialeah, FL.
2022: 8 HR, .317/.415/.498, 46 SB, 40/41 K/BB in 62 games.
There might not be a more enjoyable player to watch in all of college baseball than Enrique Bradfield. A potential top three round pick out of high school in 2020, he instead made it to campus at Vanderbilt and has tormented the rest of the SEC since day one. He hit .336/.451/.414 as a freshman and led the nation with 47 stolen bases, then tied for second in the nation in 2022 with 46 stolen bases while getting on base over 40% of the time and bumping his home run total from one to eight. Speed is the name of the game here, as he is an 80 grade runner that further causes problems with elite instincts on the base paths. He's not just the best baserunner in this draft, but the best in quite some time. Not only did he steal 46 bases last year, he didn't even get caught once – no other player in the nation stole more than 18 bases without being caught. But Bradfield is not just a runner. An ultra-skinny kid at 6'1", 160 pounds, he guides the barrel around the zone with precision and makes hard all fields contact with regularity, giving himself more than ample opportunity to utilize that blazing speed in games. A patient hitter as well that will make you work to get him out, he walked more than he struck out both in 2021 and 2022 and nearly did so again on the Cape last summer, where he ran a .389 on-base percentage against the best pitching in the country. He'll never be a power threat with that rail-thin build, but given his feel for the barrel and strong pitch selection, he could turn on a few mistake pitches at the big league level and ambush you for 5-10 home runs per season. The calling card, of course, will always be the speed, and outfielders will have to be careful they don't let routine base hits become doubles or let balls in the gap turn into triples. As you might expect, the elite speed translates into plus defense in center field, giving him a third plus or better tool. As long as he continues to impact the ball in 2023 like he has the past two seasons, he has a very good chance to go in the middle of the first round or better.

5. RHP Patrick Reilly, Vanderbilt.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 10/7/2001. Hometown: Sea Girt, NJ.
2022: 2-3, 4.99 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 69/35 K/BB in 52.1 innings.
Had the 2020 high school season not been cut short by COVID, there's a good chance Patrick Reilly would have never made it to Nashville as he had been carrying plenty of helium into the season. He has tantalized with his arm talent for two years now, but to this point is yet to put it all together and for the second straight season is one of the conference's more prominent breakout candidates. He holds a 4.99 ERA and a 122/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings through two seasons at Vanderbilt, and after a pair of strong scoreless starts in the Cape Cod League in 2021, he was up and down on the Cape in 2022 with a 4.26 ERA and a 20/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Those are not particularly inspiring numbers, but this is a premium arm nonetheless. Reilly sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has reached as high as 98, with moderate riding action that isn't quite enough to elicit a ton of chases, but does keep it off barrels. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent, deep slider that regularly flashes plus, while he also works in a harder cutter and a changeup. This 6'3" righty has a premium pitcher's frame, and throughout his time in Nashville he has gotten much more athletic with his delivery. To this point, his command has not followed suit as he can get too uptempo and struggle to stay under control, but the athleticism does give plenty of hope that he can eventually get more consistent in that regard. With the power arm, durability, athleticism, and deep arsenal, he has a chance to put everything together and pitch his way into the first round this spring.

6. RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'6", 215 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Atlanta, GA.
2022: 7-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 91/31 K/BB in 89.1 innings.
South Carolina has another horse ready to lead them to a competitive year in the SEC East. Will Sanders has been an impact arm since the day he reached Columbia, holding a career 3.47 ERA and a 145/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.2 innings almost entirely as a starter. Built like a stick of bamboo at 6'6", he offers plenty of projection even as he's steadily tacked on velocity with South Carolina. He presently sits in the low 90's but can bump it up to the mid 90's at will, though the pitch has pretty generic plane and movement. Sanders stands out more for his secondaries, including an above average slider that is still searching for its identity and can flash plus at its best, as well as an above average changeup that represents one of the better cambios in the class. The Atlanta native has a very simple, low effort delivery with a strong lower half that helps him pound the strike zone with above average control and average command while holding his velocity deep into starts. The flip side is that he doesn't create much deception, and when you combine that with his generic fastball, his ceiling may be a bit limited unless he finds a way get more movement. Still, with three above average pitches, durability, projection, and solid command, he is a high probability mid rotation starter.

7. OF Jared Dickey, Tennessee.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 3/1/2002. Hometown: Mount Juliet, TN.
2022: 7 HR, .380/.484/.690, 3 SB, 12/20 K/BB in 40 games.
Jordan Beck, Drew Gilbert, Trey Lipscomb, Jorel Ortega, Luc Lipcius, Evan Russell. If you watch college baseball, you're very familiar with those names that helped make up Tennessee's murderer's row of a lineup last year, but Jared Dickey flew somewhat under the radar in a reserve role. Appearing in 40 of the team's 66 games and only starting 25, he slashed .380/.484/.690 with seven home runs and struck out less than ten percent of the time. He stands out most for his tremendous combination of discipline and barrel accuracy, making him an extremely tough out and helping him get on base nearly half the time. Dickey utilizes a very simple left handed swing, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring it up with consistency, leading to a high volume of singles, extra base hits, and even home runs in Tennessee's hitter-friendly home park. There will be a lot of eyes on him in 2023 as he gets more consistent at bats and opposing teams are able to focus more on their game plans against him with Beck, Gilbert, and co. out of the way. Continuing to perform now that the secret is out will certainly benefit his stock, but given a 9.5% strikeout rate and a 15.9% walk rate last year, it's hard to imagine there's anything opposing teams can throw him that will fool him. He has the upside of a high on-base hitter that can knock 15-20 home runs per season, certainly a hit over power profile for now unless he changes his approach to chase that power. He has seen some time behind the plate but likely profiles as a corner outfielder, where the pressure will really be on his bat, but he has time to work on his catching and guys like Dalton Rushing and Nathan Hickey have been able to make it work with similar profiles. Proving he can catch while continuing to hit would likely push him into the first round.

8. SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 170 lbs. Born 3/11/2002. Hometown: Hilo, HI.
2022 (@ Kansas): 8 HR, .396/.479/.634, 13 SB, 49/28 K/BB in 53 games.
Hurston Waldrep isn't the only big name player transferring into the SEC East. While Kansas baseball has struggled for a long time now, Maui Ahuna was one of the best players to come through the program in a long time and hit .357/.447/.532 with nine home runs in 103 games over two seasons. He had a chance to be the first Jayhawk drafted since third rounder Ryan Zeferjahn in 2019 and the first to go in the top two rounds since Curt Shaw way back in 1990, but upon head coach Ritch Price's retirement, he announced his intention to transfer to Tennessee. He had an up and down run with the Collegiate National Team but struggled in a short stint on the Cape, striking out 15 times in 28 plate appearances, so his transition to SEC pitching will be closely watched even if he dominated against strong Big 12 pitching. Ahuna lacks a carrying tool, but he does almost everything well and brings plenty of ceiling. A skinny kid, he comes with a very athletic 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add good weight, and he did already improve from one home run as a freshman to eight as a sophomore. He gets good leverage from the left side with those long arms and a big, powerful swing, so he should get to above average power as he gets stronger. The Hawaii native did strike out in over 20% of his plate appearances last year and had that rough Cape run, so the hit tool is a bit more in question with a bit of a swoopy swing, but he has a very accurate barrel and had no problem performing in the Big 12 last year, where he led the conference in batting average. Ahuna also brings value with his glove, as a potential above average defender at shortstop with a good arm, though he may have to move to third base if he slows down at all. Optimists will give him above average tools across the board while pessimists may see more average tools, leaving a lot of room for split opinions. A team that believes in the tools might consider him as high as the first round, while those that are more off-put by the 53.5% strikeout rate on the Cape and see him as a third baseman rather than a shortstop might want to wait until the second or third round to roll the dice.

9. LHP Magdiel Cotto, Kentucky.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 250 lbs. Born 6/24/2002. Hometown: Fort Mill, SC.
2022: 3-1, 6.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 36/19 K/BB in 32.2 innings.
Magdiel Cotto teamed with Will Sanders at South Carolina as a freshman in 2021, but struggled to find innings in that loaded pitching staff and transferred to Kentucky as a sophomore. Serving as a swingman, he struggled with consistency and ended up with forgettable numbers, but he turned heads in the Cape Cod League with a 3.73 ERA and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings. At his best, Cotto has some of the loudest left handed stuff in the country, and he's learning to harness it now. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and gets up to 97, coming in with that tough lefty angle to boot. His slider shows good sweep and looks above average, and he drops in a solid changeup as well to give him a very strong three pitch mix from the left side. The 6'4", 250 pound left hander creates deception hiding the ball behind that big frame, which also projects durability. Cotto has struggled with command in the past but looked better in that regard on the Cape, trending towards average which would really help him stick in the rotation long term. In 2023, scouts will obviously be looking for much more consistency than he showed over the past two years, hoping his loud stuff plays up against SEC lineups like it is capable of. Additionally, he doesn't turn 21 until shortly before the draft, making him one of the younger college players available.

10. LHP Liam Sullivan, Georgia.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'6", 245 pounds. Born 5/16/2002. Hometown: Sandy Springs, GA.
2022: 4-3, 4.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 51/20 K/BB in 48.2 innings.
Over the past few years, Georgia has produced quite a few polished arms such as Emerson Hancock, Ryan Webb, and Jonathan Cannon, but in 2023 they have a pair of power armed lefties that have a chance to break out. I like Jaden Woods a lot, and he just missed this list, but Liam Sullivan has helium and pushed into the back. He sits in the low 90's and has hit 96 with his running fastball, adding a downer curveball and a solid changeup to form a very good three pitch mix. He is yet to put it together in Athens, but he really elevated his stock with a dominant run through the Cape Cod League in which he posted a 2.17 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings and looks to ride that success into 2023. Standing 6'6", 245 pounds, he is a big, physical presence on the mound that works downhill and can overpower hitters at his best. The command hasn't quite been there at Georgia, but he pounded the zone on the Cape and continuing to do so could push him into the top two rounds as a mid rotation starter type.

Sunday, October 16, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

2022 draftees: 57. Top school: Georgia Tech (8)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/2/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-9, Royals: OF Gavin Cross (Virginia Tech)
1-11, Mets: C Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech)
2-40, Dodgers: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville)
2-42, Orioles: 3B Max Wagner (Clemson)
2-54, Guardians: LHP Parker Messick (Florida State)
CBB-68, Twins: SS Tanner Schobel (Virginia Tech)
CBB-70, Rays: SS Chandler Simpson (Georgia Tech)

The ACC had yet another year of 50+ draftees, dominated by position players as the league was known around college baseball for its loaded lineups. Each of the first four players drafted and six of the first seven were position players, led by first rounders Gavin Cross of Virginia Tech and Kevin Parada of Georgia Tech. The league looks perhaps even deeper this year, with close to a dozen players with a realistic chance to play their way into the first round conversation quickly in 2023. Obviously we won't see that many drafted there, but every player on this list could realistically be one of those names called in the first round come July 2023. Like last year, it's a hitter-heavy list, something that is becoming part of the ACC's brand. Let's look through the top dozen prospects in the conference.

1. OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 10/2/2001. Hometown: Massapequa, NY.
2022: 6 HR, .329/.402/.506, 5 SB, 16/11 K/BB in 41 games.
Boston College hasn't seen much team success lately with just one winning season out of the past six, but they have produced plenty of high end draft prospects including Justin Dunn, Cody Morissette, Luke Gold, Sal Frelick, the latter of whom shares some similarities to Travis Honeyman. Frelick, the fifteenth overall pick in 2021, was the school's highest drafted player since fourth overall pick Tony Sanchez in 2009, and Honeyman has a chance to beat Frelick this year. After picking up one (1) hit as a freshman in 2021, he broke out as one of the team's best hitters in 2022 and and boosted his stock further with an excellent run through the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .289/.400/.530 with four home runs in 24 games. He makes a ton of contact from the right side, striking out just 8.7% of the time at BC in 2022 and a still-solid 18.2% on the Cape, with exceptional adjustability in his swing and the ability to get to balls all over the zone. He's similar to Frelick in that sense, but at 6'2", his long arms and extremely quick hands help him produce high exit velocities and above average pull side power in games. It's hard to bust him in, as he can pull those hands in and turn on the ball with the best of them, but he has no problem going the other way either and the power will start to come that way as he gets stronger. The Long Island native is not quite as fast as Frelick and is not guaranteed to stick in center field, but he may hit for more impact while maintaining nearly as high an on-base percentage, though to this point he makes too much contact early in counts to draw high numbers of walks. Honeyman has plenty of upside, with the chance to hit 20+ home runs a year with high, batting average-driven on-base percentages, potentially from center field.

2. OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 185 lbs. Born 3/13/2002. Hometown: Boalsburg, PA.
2022: 14 HR, .375/.452/.664, 10 SB, 51/32 K/BB in 58 games.
Jack Hurley might be the most exciting player in the ACC. An immediate contributor as a freshman in 2021, he broke out as one of the best hitters in arguably the best lineup in college baseball in 2022, slashing an incredible .375/.452/.664 in 58 games. He brings a high energy style of play to the ballpark, taking big swings in the box, searching for extra bases where he can find them, and running full speed into the outfield wall if need be. He's not huge at six feet tall, but he generates a ton of torque with those big swings and taps above average power consistently in games, naturally lifting and driving the ball to all fields. He previously struggled with swing and miss, striking out 30.8% as a freshman, but he dropped that rate to 18.8% in 2022 and hopes to continue trending in the right direction in 2023. He hammers fastballs and is improving against offspeed stuff, so that will be his primary focus in 2023. Defensively, he payed left field last year while Gavin Cross manned center, but he's plenty fast enough to slide over to center this year and should be able to stick there in pro ball as well. It's a profile littered with 55's and if he can continue to improve against offspeed stuff, he has a chance to become an impact player at the major league level that provides value in a multitude of ways.

3. 3B Yohandy Morales, Miami.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 210 lbs. Born 10/9/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2022: 18 HR, .329/.411/.650, 6 SB, 60/34 K/BB in 60 games.
Yohandy Morales has been a priority follow for scouts down in South Florida for a while now. A big name in the 2020 high school class, he got off to a hot start before the COVID shutdown and pushed his name into top three rounds consideration, but ultimately stayed home to attend Miami. Morales burst onto the scene in Coral Gables by slashing .284/.343/.531 with eleven home runs as a freshman, then improved each number in his triple slash this past spring before a strong showing with the US Collegiate National Team over the summer. First and foremost, Morales stands out for his power. He's a big, lanky guy at 6'4", packing plenty of lean strength onto that frame that helps him put great leverage on the ball. Content with more of a line drive approach for now, he generates big exit velocities and can easily lift the ball out of the park when he wants to, and even his mishits can cause problems for pitchers. To this point, he has been a bit aggressive at the plate and has struck out north of 20% of the time in both of his collegiate seasons, so that will be something to watch this coming spring. If he can manage that and show more discipline in 2023, it's an easy first round bat that could end up with 55 hit, 60 power. Additionally, he's a solid athlete that has showed well at third base, making for a very well-rounded profile that will be very intriguing early in the draft. By cutting that strikeout rate just a little, he could easily pass Honeyman and Hurley on this list and be the first ACC player drafted.

4. 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 6/17/2002. Hometown: Valrico, FL.
2022: 23 HR, .272/.362/.602, 0 SB, 71/34 K/BB in 60 games.
In a conference full of power bats, you might not find one more prodigious than Brock Wilken. The Tampa-area product has already blasted 40 home runs over two years at Wake Forest, plus thirteen more over two Cape seasons. He really cemented himself as a top prospect in this class with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League in 2021, just as he was turning 19 years old, and when you include his more ordinary 2022 Cape season he hit .271/.400/.471 over 73 games. So long story short, Wilken has faced a huge sample of high level pitching and has consistently performed for a long time now. While Yohandy Morales is leaner, Wilken is a barrel chested 6'4" that looks like he would fit right in for Dave Clawson on the gridiron. He deploys that copious strength into big right handed swings, and the ball just jumps off his bat like few in college baseball. He can easily put it out to any field with plus power and does plenty of damage on mishits as well, and if he makes enough contact, he could profile for thirty-plus home runs a year at the major league level. Wilken is a patient hitter that works counts well, spoiling tough pitches until he gets a good one to hit, though he does get into trouble occasionally in those deep counts and his 24.2% strikeout rate last spring was a bit higher than you'd like to see. He'll probably always struggle with swing and miss, but that grinder mentality in the box will serve him well and he has done nothing but hit for a very long time now. He also possesses a plus arm that could give him a shot at third base, though he'll need to get more agile to stick there long term. At his ceiling, he could be a similar player to Pete Alonso.

5. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 3/8/2002. Hometown: Albemarle, NC.
2022: 11-3, 3.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 105/26 K/BB in 99.1 innings.
It's all about the bats in this conference, but Rhett Lowder has so far emerged as the best arm in the prestigious league. He jumped right into the rotation as a freshman and broke out as a sophomore, striking out over one hundred batters along the way. There is no one plus attribute here, but Lowder does a little bit of everything well. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can get up to 97 at his best, while his slider and changeup both look consistently above average to give him three big league pitches. He commands everything well to both sides of the plate, effectively navigating the loaded lineups of the ACC by executing where he needed to. That combination of pitchability and stuff is hard to find at times, and the North Carolina native also comes with some projection in a skinny 6'2" frame. Most pitchers nowadays like to identify as a Max Scherzer-esque "psychopath" or a Landon Sims-like "bulldog" on the mound, but Lowder doesn't really fit either of those descriptions. An artist in his spare time (literally, he creates oil paintings), he's quiet and composed on the mound and doesn't let much rattle him. It's the full package as a starting pitcher, one that has a very good chance to wind up in the middle of a big league rotation.

6. RHP Teddy McGraw, Wake Forest.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 10/30/2001. Hometown: Oneonta, NY.
2022: 5-2, 4.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 67/38 K/BB in 70.2 innings.
We'll round out the Wake Forest section of this list with Teddy McGraw, another 6'2" righty in the Demon Deacon rotation but one who gets things done a little differently than Rhett Lowder. While Lowder has about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to get, McGraw is much more of a loud stuff guy who is still refining his overall feel for pitching and one who hopes to truly break out in 2023. While the ACC numbers aren't quite there (and Wake Forest's hitter-friendly David F. Couch Ballpark doesn't do him any favors), like Brock Wilken he has thrived over two summers in the Cape Cod League, where he has a combined 3.20 ERA and a 47/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 innings. He can touch 98 early in starts and can still hold low 90's velocity towards the end, with heavy running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. He's recently worked to add a four seam fastball that can ride away from his more natural two seam plane, giving hitters another look. McGraw's best pitch is a plus slider with nasty hard snap that misses a ton of bats, and he's working on a changeup that flashes above average as well. He moves well on the mound with an athletic delivery and a low release, but to this point his fringy command has held him back from becoming the impact arm Wake Forest wants him to be. Controlling at bats and setting himself up with better counts will be on the to do list in 2023, and if he can, there's no reason he shouldn't go in the first round. If his command plateaus and he continues to wind up in hitters' counts, he may be a reliever at the next level and the second round would make more sense.

7. 3B Jake Gelof, Virginia.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Rehoboth Beach, DE.
2022: 21 HR, .377/.477/.764, 3 SB, 49/41 K/BB in 58 games.
Zack Gelof hit .316/.396/.478 with 16 home runs over a three year career at UVA, then went to the A's in the second round of the 2021 draft. Two years later, his brother Jake has a chance to beat his draft position, now that he's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he set the UVA school record for RBI (81) and finished near the top of the school leaderboards in multiple other stats. He loves to turn on the ball and can do so virtually anywhere in the zone, not having to wait for that middle-in fastball to crank one. ACC pitching did not faze him one bit, as he hammered virtually everything thrown at him and had opposing managers circling his name in the lineup. Despite the big numbers, he wasn't always the most consistent hitter and lost his approach at times, but those highest on the Delaware native may be willing to write that off as an underclassman just being a young hitter. There is also some swing and miss present in his game, as he ran an 18.7% strikeout rate this past spring, but he's pretty patient too and overall it's not a major concern. He has the look of a 25+ home run hitter with solid on-base percentages that can hit in the middle of a major league lineup if everything breaks right and he gets more consistent at the plate. He's also a solid defender at third base that should be able to stick there, providing additional value all around. There are many similarities to Yohandy Morales on this list, though Morales is bigger, more athletic, and had a better summer.

8. C Kyle Teel, Virginia.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 190 lbs. Born 2/15/2002. Hometown: Mahwah, NJ.
2022: 6 HR, .276/.402/.439, 3 SB, 36/41 K/BB in 58 games.
Kyle Teel didn't have quite as loud a season in 2022 as his teammate Jake Gelof, but his lengthy track record keeps them neck and neck in terms of prospect status. Teel had a chance to go in the top three rounds of the 2020 draft out of a New Jersey high school, but pulled his name before the event because he was dead set on Charlottesville. He made an immediate impact as a freshman, slashing .335/.416/.526 with nine home runs in 2021, but didn't hit for quite as much impact in 2022 as he dropped to .276/.402/.439 and he struggled in 14 games between the Collegiate National Team and the Cape Cod League (.146/.271/.195). Teel is a very disciplined hitter that works counts effectively, something you might expect from a seasoned ACC catcher, and that helps him continue to get on base consistently and provide value even when his bat goes cold. His load can get rigid as he stabs the handle towards his back foot a bit before exploding towards the ball, messing with his timing occasionally. Still, is strong pitch selection helps him keep the swing and miss to a minimum despite the moving parts in his swing, and when it's all clicking, he's a true impact hitter as we saw during that freshman season. Behind the plate, he's more athletic than most catchers and has shown the ability to handle multiple other positions around the diamond. His pure glovework is still a work in progress but that athleticism gives him a nice baseline and is plenty enough to give scouts confidence he'll eventually develop into at least an average defender back there. Left handed hitting catchers that can hit and field at a high level are hard to find, so if he can recapture his 2021 form while continuing to make strides on defense, he could go early in the first round.

9. SS Alex Mooney, Duke.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 7/6/2002. Hometown: Rochester Hills, MI.
2022: 3 HR, .292/.393/.392, 12 SB, 41/27 K/BB in 54 games.
Alex Mooney continues the trend on this list of players who earned considerable draft interest out of high school, and in this case he could well have heard his name in the top fifty picks. One of the top incoming recruits in the entire country, he jumped into the everyday lineup immediately as a freshman and ended up having a solid, if unspectacular, first season in Durham. He wasted no time getting acclimated to ACC pitching, posting nearly a .400 on-base percentage and running just a 16.7% strikeout rate as a 19 year old, but he also wound up slugging below .400 as he only managed fourteen extra base hits in 54 games. The Detroit-area native posted similar numbers over the summer in the Cape Cod League (.263/.330/.389), but it's worth noting that he bumped his ISO from .100 to .126 and went from three home runs in 54 games to five home runs in 46 games despite transitioning to wood bats and facing better pitching. Mooney brings a great combination of strength, athleticism, and baseball IQ to the diamond, and it's important to remember this was only his first season in college ball. He's old for a sophomore and will turn 21 before the draft, though, so taking that next step in 2023 will be very important if he wants to go in the top two rounds. Personally, I think he will. He has very quiet hands in the box and uses them to guide the barrel to different parts of the zone with precision, recognizing pitches well and making adjustments in the box. It's an above average hit tool for now that has a chance to become plus, and as he continues to fill out his 6'1" frame, hopefully he can tap average power as well. Defensively, his athleticism, strong internal clock, and feel for the infield give him every shot to stick at shortstop, though a more explosive athlete could push him to second or third base depending on what system he ends up in. This is a profile filled with average or better tools that could all tick up to 55 or better if he continues to progress.

10. IF LuJames Groover, North Carolina State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 4/16/2002. Hometown: Morrow, GA.
2022: 10 HR, .364/.440/.568, 4 SB, 44/28 K/BB in 57 games.
There is a saying that hitters hit, and that certainly applies to LuJames Groover. He began his career at Charlotte but transferred after one season to NC State, where he was one of their best hitters and figures to be the centerpiece in the Wolfpack lineup now with Tommy White off to LSU. Groover is a professional hitter through and through, one who makes contact as consistently and with as much authority as anybody in the conference. He struck out just 16.1% of the time in 2022 while producing high exit velocities, meaning lots of scorching grounders and screaming line drives. That's the Atlanta-area product's approach for now, with a flat swing geared towards those hard line drives that helped him hit .364 at NC State and previously .351 as a freshman at Charlotte. Though he doesn't have much loft in his right handed swing, he can turn on the ball when he needs to and finds such a high volume of barrels that he did run into ten home runs last year, and he has a chance at above average power in pro ball if he decides to make that a larger part of his game. Given his innate feel for hitting, he should be able to if he wants to. Defensively, Groover is more of a question mark. He appeared at first base, second base, and both corner outfield spots for NC State last year and hasn't really turned heads at any of them, so barring positive developments on that front, the pressure will be on his bat. He's a decent athlete that can handle himself around the diamond, but his best case scenario is as a bat-first second baseman and there's a chance he ends up at first base for good.

11. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 7/10/2002. Hometown: Jacksonville, FL.
2022: 1-2, 5.60 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 41/20 K/BB in 27.1 innings.
Jackson Baumeister is yet another big name high school prospect who made it to campus. He had a chance to go in the top three rounds in 2021 and ended up in Tallahassee instead, but unlike Alex Mooney, he wasn't an immediate contributor. Rather, he got buried in an FSU pitching staff that proved to be the deepest in the conference, making seventeen relief appearances and two late-season midweek starts, but he'll have a chance to step into a much larger role in 2023 after the entire weekend rotation left either for pro ball or the transfer portal. Baumeister spent his summer on the Cape and threw nearly as many innings there (21) as he did all season long at FSU (27.1), and showed well with a 4.28 ERA and a 30/10 strikeout to walk ratio. He's an excellent athlete that gets down the mound well with a fluid delivery, getting good extension out front with a low release point that helps his stuff play up. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and tops out around 96 with riding action, while a sharp downer curveball has a chance to be his best pitch if he can add a little more power. The Jacksonville native is also working on an improving changeup, though it's still inconsistent to this point and he can slow his arm down at times. Below average command kept him from clawing through that FSU depth chart and earning innings last year, but given his athleticism and repeatable delivery, he has every chance to develop average command in time. If he does, he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect, but he'll need to build up some track record in Tallahassee this year to crack the top two rounds.

12. RHP Carson Montgomery, Florida State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 8/13/2002. Hometown: Windermere, FL.
2022: 4-1, 5.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 62/23 K/BB in 54 innings.
For all the fanfare that followed Jackson Baumeister to Tallahassee, Carson Montgomery was an even bigger prospect as a prep that ranked as the top prospect on my list to reach campus (though #'s 2 and 4, Kevin Parada and Dylan Crews, have since surpassed him in a big way), though like Baumeister, he's yet to break out. Though Montgomery graduated in 2020 and Baumeister was a 2021, he's actually more than a month younger as he's extremely young for his class and Baumeister is very old, interestingly enough. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 98, though it plays down a touch and catches a lot of barrels in the zone because of its generic movement. By far his best pitch is a plus slider with huge spin rates that misses a ton of bats, and pro teams will likely have him pitch off of it in the minors. He also flips in an average changeup, rounding out a big league three pitch arsenal. He's athletic on the mound but does have an interesting double leg lift that impacts his break towards the plate, and to this point his control is well ahead of his command. For most pitchers who can hit 98 and add a nasty breaking ball, that's not so much of an issue anymore, but given Montgomery's fastball's tendency to find more barrels than it misses, it's certainly important for him. If he can get better about locating his prodigious stuff or finds a way to get more movement on his fastball, he can be an impact starting pitcher at the big league level. Given his youth, not turning 21 until after the draft, there's a solid chance that happens.

Honorable Mentions
Just Missed: Catcher Cooper Ingle (Clemson) was the first player off the list after slashing .351/.449/.526 with eight home runs for the Tigers last year and is one of my favorite players in the conference. He utilizes a short, slasher-type swing focused on lashing line drives around the field, but he can turn on one if he needs to and could be a fun prospect to develop. An interesting .252/.401/.319 run through the Cape Cod League with more walks (30) than strikeouts (28) highlighted his exceptional feel for hitting and also called into question somewhat his ability to create impact with wood bats.
Post-Hype: Yohandy Morales wasn't the only big name to reach Miami's campus following the 2020 draft, but Alejandro Rosario hasn't quite lived up to expectations with a 6.09 ERA and a strikeout rate below 20% over two years in Coral Gables. He began to turn that around with a strong, albeit brief stint on the Cape (1.74 ERA, 13/1 K/BB) and has a chance to finally put it together this spring. Armed with a fastball that can hit 99 and an improving slider/splitter combo, he's one of the better athletes in the conference and could make for a fun ball of clay for whoever drafts him.
Top Transfer: The transfer portal taketh away from NC State with Tommy White heading to LSU, but it also giveth as the Wolfpack pulled Old Dominion star Carter Trice across the border to Raleigh. Trice was a two year performer for the Monarchs, slashing .324/.411/.620 with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases over 111 games, bringing a dynamic skill set to NC State that should translate to the ACC. Undersized at 5'11", he has big power from the right side and above average speed. He has struggled with swing and miss throughout his career but has shown well over two summers on the Cape (.262/.348/.454).
Deep Sleeper: Wake Forest is pulling in a very interesting young lefty named Sean Sullivan, who posted a 4.45 ERA and a 78/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Northwestern in 2022. He draws many similarities to Miami's (now the Rockies') Carson Palmquist as a true sidearm lefty that gets by more on command than stuff, sitting around 90 with his fastball while adding a sweeping slider and a plus changeup. I'm very excited to see what happens at Wake Forest's pitching lab over the offseason and he could be primed for a big time breakout.

Saturday, October 8, 2022

2022 Dugout Edge MLB Awards

American League MVP

Winner: OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Stat line: 62 HR, .311/.425/.686, 16 SB, 207 wRC+, 11.4 fWAR in 157 games
All due respect to Shohei Ohtani, seriously. I cannot emphasize enough how incredible he is, and if he hits and pitches at a high level every year, I have no problem with him winning the MVP every year. It should take a truly historic season to top an ace pitcher/middle of the order hitter, and unfortunately for Shohei, that's just what Aaron Judge provided this year. We all know his 62 home runs are the most by a hitter since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa hit 73 and 64, respectively, in 2001, as well as the most home runs ever by an American League hitter. But not only that, his .686 slugging percentage was the highest in a non-shortened season since J.D. Martinez slugged .690 in 2017, while his 1.111 OPS was the highest since prime Albert Pujols reached 1.115 in 2008. What's more is that he did all this in a year where offense was down across the board, so his 207 wRC+ made him the first member of the 200 club since Barry Bonds in 2004. Throw in very solid outfield defense, and Aaron Judge's 11.4 fWAR was the seventeenth highest total in MLB history, again the highest since Barry Bonds in 2004. Only eight different players – Bonds, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, and Honus Wagner – have ever topped that number, and only Bonds and Mantle did so since integration. Overall, he led the American League this year in home runs, RBI (131), runs scored (133), walks (111), total bases (391), on-base percentage (.425), slugging percentage, OPS, wRC+, and WAR, and many of those weren't even close. Judge hit for tremendous power and got on base at a top-of-the-league clip in a year where offense was down across the board, threw in solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, and put up an all time great season. Shohei Ohtani is unbelievable, but there is no denying what Aaron Judge did this year is legendary.

Runner-up: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 34 HR, .273/.356/.519, 11 SB, 142 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR in 157 games
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
I am of the belief that if Shohei Ohtani plays at this level every year, then he should win the MVP every year, and he would have this year if Aaron Judge didn't hit 62 home runs and throw up eleven-plus WAR. A year ago, he deservedly won the AL MVP after posting a 3.18 ERA over 130.1 innings and a 151 wRC+ over 158 games as a hitter. This year, he dropped that ERA nearly a run to 2.33, threw 35.2 additional innings, and maintained nearly the same wRC+ at 142 over 157 games as a hitter. All told, he was probably even better this year than he was last year. Just isolating his bat, he was the American League's seventh best hitter by wRC+, ahead of stars like Rafael Devers (141), Carlos Correa (140), Jose Ramirez (139), Alex Bregman (136), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (132). His 34 home runs also placed third in the league and despite spending all that time on the mound, he still stepped to the plate 666 times, ninth most in the AL. And he still found the time to steal eleven bases. Flip over to the mound, and his numbers were perhaps even more impressive. He accumulated 5.6 fWAR as a pitcher, good for third in the AL behind Justin Verlander (6.1) and Kevin Gausman (5.7), while his 2.33 ERA finished fourth and his 2.40 FIP came in second. So we are talking about perhaps a top ten hitter and a top five pitcher in the league – nobody will ever do that again. In fact, if some player comes around and so much as posts an ERA in the 4's with a league average bat, that would be incredible, but we wouldn't see it that way because Ohtani has spoiled us.

Honorable mention: 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Stat line: 28 HR, .300/.387/.533, 18 SB, 164 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games
I went back and forth, back and forth on this third spot between Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez, who had extremely similar seasons as all-around well above average hitters with some speed and solid if unspectacular gloves on the infield dirt. Altuve was clearly the better hitter, as he finished 20, 32, and 19 points, respectively, ahead of Ramirez in the three triple slash categories of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, while his 164 wRC+ dwarfed Ramirez's very respectable 139. However, Ramirez also played in 16 more games than Altuve, missing just five Guardians games to Altuve's 21. I initially leaned Altuve due to the bat, moved over to Ramirez when I looked closer and decided that his 16 extra games were enough to overcome the offensive gap, then came back to Altuve when I looked at how their production was spread out throughout the year. Ramirez came out of the gate extremely hot, slashing .342/.411/.722 in April and holding a .288/.368/.576 slash line through the first half, but he gradually slowed down throughout the season as his OPS dropped in every month besides October and he hit just .269/.339/.439 in the second half as his teammates stepped up to put the finishing touches on the AL Central title run. Altuve, meanwhile, was a non-factor in April as he missed time with a hamstring injury and didn't hit much when he was on the field, but once he got over that and found his groove, there was no turning back. From May onwards, he was one of the best hitters in baseball as he slashed .310/.396/.554 and picked up all 6.6 of his fWAR – the third most in baseball in that stretch, behind only Aaron Judge's 10.4 and Paul Goldschmidt's 6.8. Wins in April count just as much as wins in September, but there's something to be said about momentum. Altuve was a non-factor in April and was excellent from May onwards, while Ramirez was exceptional to start the season and gradually slowed down.

Others
3B Jose Ramirez (Guardians): 29 HR, .280/.355/.514, 20 SB, 139 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR in 157 games
DH Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 37 HR, .306/.406/.613, 1 SB, 185 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 135 games
RHP Justin Verlander (Astros): 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
3B Alex Bregman (Astros): 23 HR, .259/.366/.454, 1 SB, 136 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR in 155 games
2B Andres Gimenez (Guardians): 17 HR, .297/.371/.466, 20 SB, 140 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR in 146 games

National League MVP

Winner: 3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 30 HR, .293/.358/.533, 5 SB, 151 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR in 148 games
If you look at the raw offensive numbers for Nolan Arenado, you may not be overly impressed. His .381 wOBA would not stand out in most seasons, but offense was down across MLB in 2022 and it actually came out to the fourth best mark in the National League, and just barely behind Manny Machado's third place .382. He didn't actually lead the NL in any individual stat, but in addition to finishing fourth in wOBA he was also second in fWAR, third in slugging percentage, third in doubles, fourth in wRC+, fourth in OPS, and fifth in extra base hits (73). He did all that while finishing with the third lowest strikeout rate in the league at 11.6%, behind only contact artists Jeff McNeil and Nico Hoerner – in fact, you can throw in Miguel Rojas right behind him and the other three names in the top four combined for just 25 home runs to his 30. Arenado's combination of power and elite ability to put the ball in play was not matched this year, and that's all just in the bat. We all know that he is also one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, sucking up everything that comes his way at the hot corner and turning surefire infield singles or down the line extra base hits into outs at first base. Per Statcast, his 15 outs above average were second among all NL third basemen behind only Pittsburgh's Ke'Bryan Hayes, if you want confirmation. Take that bat in a down year for offense combined with the elite glove, and you can make a pretty strong case that no National League player was better than Nolan Arenado in 2022.

Runner-up: 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 32 HR, .298/.366/.531, 9 SB, 152 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 150 games
One man did have a nearly identical season to Arenado, and that's Manny Machado. Like Arenado, Machado is an elite defensive third baseman that provides significant value with his glove. His eight outs above average at the hot corner were fourth in the NL, but because Arenado nearly doubled him in that category, he gets the edge despite nearly identical offensive stats (his 11.6% strikeout rate to Manny's 20.7% also helps). Mchado actually beat Arenado by five points in batting average and eight points in on-base percentage while falling two points short in slugging percentage, which gave him a one point advantage in the all-encompassing stats of wOBA (.382) and wRC+. It also meant that Manny led the NL in fWAR while finishing third in wRC+, third in wOBA,third in OPS, fourth in batting average, fourth in slugging percentage, and fifth in total bases (307). Overall, it was one of the best all-around seasons in the NL, but his excellent defense vs Arenado's elite defense and his higher strikeout rate contributed to him falling just short in my book.

Honorable mention: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 35 HR, .317/.404/.578, 7 SB, 177 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 151 games
Paul Goldschmidt was the single best hitter in the National League this year, and I don't think there are any two ways around it. He led the league in wRC+, wOBA (.419), slugging percentage, and OPS, all by a very healthy margin, and finished second in total bases (324), second in on-base percentage, third in hits (178), third in batting average, fourth in extra base hits (76), and fifth in home runs. He was so good, in fact, that I very nearly put him ahead of defensive whizzes Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado, though his being limited to first base does hurt his value just a little. Goldschmidt did look like the favorite for much of the season and was slashing .338/.423/.633 on August 27th, but his bat quieted a bit towards the finish line and he hit just .229/.325/.349 over his final 31 games, allowing Arenado and Machado to overtake him.

Others
1B Freddie Freeman (Dodgers): 21 HR, .325/.407/.511, 13 SB, 157 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 159 games
RHP Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
OF Mookie Betts (Dodgers): 35 HR, .269/.340/.533, 12 SB, 144 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 142 games
C J.T. Realmuto (Phillies): 22 HR, .276/.342/.478, 21 SB, 128 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 139 games
2B Jeff McNeil (Mets): 9 HR, .326/.382/.454, 4 SB, 143 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR in 148 games

American League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Stat line: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
Justin Verlander may have thrown just the sixteenth most innings in the American League this year, behind names like Jordan Lyles and Nick Pivetta, but those 175 innings were some of the most dominant we have seen in some time. In fact, only two live ball era pitchers have EVER had a lower ERA and a lower WHIP while throwing that many innings in a season: Greg Maddux in 1995 (1.63 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 209.2 IP) and Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 217 IP). That's it, that's the list. For my money, that is plenty enough to award him the AL Cy Young Award. He may not be striking out as many batters as he used to, with his 27.8% rate (sixth best in the AL) actually by far his lowest mark with the Astros, but pinpoint command meant he walked just 4.4% of his opponents, third best in the league. He was untouchable from start to finish this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 26 of his 28 starts and allowing one or zero earned runs in 20 of 28. He also never walked more than three batters in a start, walked more than two just twice, and walked one or zero in 21 of 28 starts. His worst ERA in any month was 2.27, while his worst WHIP was 1.01. That ERA would have finished fourth in the AL and that WHIP would have finished sixth. Just unbelievable stuff from the 39 year old future first ballot Hall of Famer.

Runner-up: RHP Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Stat line: 14-8, 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, 227/78 K/BB in 184 innings
So Dylan Cease led the entire American League with 78 walks and a 10.4% walk rate, which isn't ideal, but he actually did almost everything else well. He finished second in ERA, second in strikeouts, second in opponents' batting average (.190), third in games started, and third in strikeout rate (30.4%), and he did all of that despite playing in front of one of the worst defenses in the AL that did him no favors. So he walked a lot of guys, but he stranded most of them on base and did pretty much everything else as well as you could. And even though he was a bit wild, he only hit three batters, the fifth fewest among the 22 qualified starters in the AL. It's a low ERA, high strikeout, large sample season that is comfortably behind Justin Verlander's but in my opinion just a touch better than everyone else in the league. To this point in his career, he has now dropped his ERA and WHIP in each of his four major league seasons.

Honorable mention: RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
We already talked about Shohei Ohtani's pitching in the AL MVP section, and in my opinion he had the third best season of any AL pitcher this year, bat notwithstanding. Not only did he blast 34 home runs with a .356 on-base percentage as a hitter, but he was a legitimate ace and the best pitcher on the west coast. He led the American League in strikeout rate (33.2%), finished second in FIP, third in strikeouts, fourth in ERA, and fifth in WHIP, and additionally only allowed two unearned runs so he didn't allow errors to hurt him. He had ten different double digit strikeout games, kept the ball in the ballpark with just 14 home runs allowed (fourth fewest among qualified AL starters), and pitched like an ace nearly every time he went out there.

Others
RHP Shane Bieber (Guardians): 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.87 FIP, 198/36 K/BB in 200 innings
RHP Alek Manoah (Blue Jays): 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 180/51 K/BB in 196.2 innings
LHP Shane McClanahan (Rays): 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.00 FIP, 194/38 K/BB in 166.1 innings
RHP Emmanuel Clase (Guardians): 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
LHP Nestor Cortes (Yankees): 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.13 FIP, 163/38 K/BB in 158.1 innings

National League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Stat line: 14-9, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
Sometimes, old fashioned is better. Sandy Alcantara led all of Major League Baseball in innings pitched by 23.2 over second place Aaron Nola, with his 228.2 representing the highest total for any pitcher since David Price threw 230 innings for the 2016 Red Sox. Additionally, his six complete games (five of the nine inning variety) doubled second place Framber Valdez's total of three this year, and again represented the highest total since Chris Sale's six for the 2016 White Sox. Alcantara's shortest start this year was 4.2 innings, and he completed seven innings in 22 of his 32 starts. But you don't get the Cy Young Award just for throwing a bunch of innings, and Alcantara pitched like an ace throughout. Not only was he on the mound far more than anybody else this season, he also finished second in the NL in ERA, fourth in strikeouts, fifth in FIP, and sixth in WHIP. That kind of dominance over such a large sample is just too easy a choice for this award.

Runner-up: RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Stat line: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 235/29 K/BB in 205 innings
Aaron Nola's 3.25 ERA may have been just the thirteenth best in the National League, but it was an otherwise exceptional season. Pitching in front of an poor Phillies defense that finished 29th out of 30 teams in terms of outs above average and in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, his 2.58 FIP (second in the NL) and 2.74 xERA (per Statcast) point to significant bad luck, mostly owing to that bad defense behind him. And yet he still threw the most innings in MLB by pitchers not named Alcantara, led all NL pitchers in fWAR (6.3) and walk rate (3.6%), and finished third in strikeouts, third in games started, and fourth in WHIP. It was about as well as you could expect anybody to pitch on their own, and if you swapped any other pitcher into his circumstances, I'm not sure you would have seen better numbers from anybody.

Honorable mention: RHP Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants
Stat line: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.25 FIP, 237/52 K/BB in 178 innings
Carlos Rodon found himself in a similar position to Aaron Nola, pitching in front of the third worst defense in the majors in San Francisco. In fact, if you take his defense out of it, his 2.25 FIP led all of Major League Baseball, so he controlled the three true outcomes better than anybody. In addition to leading the league in FIP, he also led the NL in strikeout rate (33.4%) and finished second in strikeouts (237), second in fWAR (6.2), sixth in ERA, and ninth in WHIP. He had eleven double digit strikeout games and was overall just a bat missing machine, which is exactly what the Giants needed given their relative inability to field the baseball.

Others
LHP Max Fried (Braves): 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.70 FIP, 170/32 K/BB in 185.1 innings
RHP Corbin Burnes (Brewers): 2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.14 FIP, 243/51 K/BB in 202 innings
RHP Edwin Diaz (Mets): 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
RHP Spencer Strider (Braves): 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Stat line: 13 HR, .254/.362/.445, 4 SB, 133 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 113 games
Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez are so neck and neck, with fWAR assigning them both the same value at 5.3 and bWAR giving Rodriguez a 6.0 to 5.2 edge. You really can't go wrong with either here, and I'm only choosing Rutschman because you can't have two rookies of the year. Rutschman played 19 fewer games than Rodriguez and fell 13 points behind in wRC+, but he was also one of the better defensive catchers in baseball. The Orioles as a team had a 3.97 ERA this year, but that was down to 3.79 with Rutschman behind the plate versus 4.39 with Robinson Chirinos. He didn't only help the pitching staff, he helped the whole team. The Orioles were 16-24 (.400 WPCT) when he got called up, then went 67-55 (.549 WPCT) from there on out. To come in and immediately improve not only a pitching staff, but a team like that is even more impressive as a 24 year old rookie, and his presence is looking to kickstart an era that could bring the best Orioles teams since the Jim Palmer/Eddie Murray golden era of the 1970's and early 1980's. Rutschman isn't just notable for his glove, though, as his 133 wRC+ shows he brings a serious bat as well. His .362 on-base percentage would have been fourteenth best in the American League and his 13.8% walk rate sixth best if he had enough at bats to qualify, while his 35 doubles clocked in at thirteenth. Obviously those numbers won't blow you away, but again, this is a 24 year old rookie whose glove and clubhouse presence have already helped transform a team.

Runner-up: OF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: 28 HR, .284/.345/.509, 25 SB, 146 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 132 games
Like I mentioned, Julio Rodriguez is equally deserving of the Rookie of the Year Award, and Adley Rutschman only beat him by a hair. Rodriguez's season was very different than Rutschman's, but just as impressive. He played in 19 more games, hit 15 more home runs, and posted a wRC+ 13 points higher, just about making up for Rutschman's prowess behind the plate. And don't forget about Rodriguez's glove, because even though center field might not be quite as important as catcher, his seven outs above average came in thirteenth among American League outfielders. In what was a down year for hitters, his 146 wRC+ was the fifth best in the entire AL, behind only Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yandy Diaz (yep, Yandy Diaz quietly finished at 146). His 5.3 overall fWAR finished ninth in the league, just edging Rutschman. Rodriguez played the entire season at just 21 years old, in a very pitcher-friendly home stadium, and early in the season was the recipient of some of the worst called strike luck in recent memory, but you would't know that from his final numbers that included a 25-25 season. And we can't forget the show he put on at the Home Run Derby, either. He'll likely be worth every penny of that mega contract he signed with Seattle.

Honorable mention: OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 6 HR, .298/.373/.400, 19 SB, 124 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR in 147 games
It's a two horse race for the AL Rookie of the Year this year, but let's not forget about Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan. An elite contact bat, he was one of just five qualified American League hitters to draw more walks than strikeouts, and his 9.4% strikeout rate was the second lowest in the league behind only Luis Arraez. His .373 on-base percentage was also ninth best in the league, so overall Kwan was just relentless about putting the ball in play and getting on base. The power wasn't quite there, but he did add significant value on defense with eight outs above average, good for eighth among AL outfielders. He fits in perfectly with Cleveland's contact-first style of play, and his big rookie season deserves recognition in the shadows of Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez.

Others
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings
RHP George Kirby, Mariners: 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 133/22 K/BB in 130 innings
RHP Joe Ryan, Twins: 3.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.99 FIP, 151/47 K/BB in 147 innings
SS Jeremy Peña, Astros: 22 HR, .253/.289/.426, 11 SB, 102 wRC+ in 136 games
LHP Brock Burke, Rangers: 1.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 90/24 K/BB in 82.1 innings

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 11-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
The NL Rookie of the Year Award will come down to two Braves, and I think Spencer Strider gets the edge. He accrued the fifth most fWAR (4.9) of any National League pitcher this year, rookie or not, enough to earn the #6 spot on my NL Cy Young ballot. Though he only threw 131.2 innings, he was one of just six NL pitchers to record 200 strikeouts this year while his 38.3% strikeout rate and 1.83 FIP led the NL (min. 130 innings) by a huge margin ahead of second place Carlos Rodon's 33.4% and 2.25, respectively. He actually began the year in the Atlanta bullpen and made eleven relief appearances with a 2.22 ERA and a 37/11 strikeout to walk ratio in April and May, but jumped to the rotation at the end of the month and never looked back. He recorded his first double digit strikeout game in his third start and pitched the game of the year on September 1st, when he allowed jut two hits and no walks over eight shutout innings against the Rockies, striking out 16 along the way. Now Strider did walk 8.5% of his opponents, the ninth highest mark in the NL among pitchers who threw at least 130 innings, but if he can get that down, the league could have its next true ace.

Runner-up: OF Michael Harris, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 19 HR, .297/.339/.514, 20 SB, 136 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR in 114 games
Like Spencer Strider, Michael Harris didn't play enough to qualify for rate-based stats, but he was so great once he did come up in late May that he deserves a good long look for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. I gave it to Strider because I see him fitting much better into the down ballot Cy Young discussion than Harris fits in the down ballot MVP discussion, but it is fairly close. Harris came one home run short of a 20-20 season despite missing a third of the season, and his .514 slugging percentage topped Julio Rodriguez for the best among MLB rookies (min. 100 games played) while his .297 batting average fell just behind Steven Kwan's .298 and his .853 OPS fell just behind Rodriguez's .854. He was also a very strong defender whose seven outs above average were enough to finish fourth among all NL outfielders. It's a pretty similar season overall to Rodriguez (in 18 fewer games), who got much more media attention.

Honorable mention: LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 4-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, 131/39 K/BB in 103.1 innings
It was a forgettable season in Cincinnati, but four rookie pitchers had seasons to remember. Nick Lodolo was perhaps the best among them and earns the third spot on my NL Rookie of the Year ballot, but Hunter Greene was right there behind him while Alexis Diaz was the best rookie reliever in the NL and Braxton Ashcraft made it to one hundred innings as well. Lodolo earns this spot despite throwing 22.1 fewer innings than Greene over five fewer starts because when he was on the mound, he was better. His 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 1.25 FIP all compare very favorably to league averages, as the 24 year old gave the Reds 103.1 very effective innings in the rotation right off the bat. He got better as the season went along, too, and figures to stick around near the top of that Reds rotation for a very long time.

Others
RHP Hunter Greene (Reds): 4.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, 164/48 K/BB in 125.2 innings
RHP Alexis Diaz (Reds): 1.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.32 FIP, 83/33 K/BB in 63.2 innings
2B Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): 5 HR, .281/.394/.379, 2 SB, 129 wRC+ in 126 games
1B Joey Meneses (Nationals): 13 HR, .324/.367/.563, 1 SB, 156 wRC+ in 56 games
OF Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): 14 HR, .262/.336/.433, 9 SB, 116 wRC+ in 111 games

American League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
If you want to talk untouchable, then Emmanuel Clase is a great place to start. Opponents hit a paltry .167/.200/.225 against him as virtually nobody could barrel his triple digit cutter from start of the season to finish. His 28.4% strikeout rate was strong but not elite, but when hitters did make contact, it was weak contact galore as they wound up with a barrage of weak ground balls. He didn't walk anybody, either with just a 3.7% walk rate, so you really just had to get lucky to reach base. In fact, his longest stretch of consecutive appearances allowing a baserunner was just three appearances. In other words, he never went four games without posting at least one perfect appearance.

Others
RHP Jason Adam (Rays): 1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 2.86 FIP, 75/17 K/BB in 63.1 innings
RHP Andres Muñoz (Mariners): 2.49 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.04 FIP, 96/15 K/BB in 65 innings
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings

National League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Stat line: 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
There were some great relievers in the National League this year, dare I say a deeper group than in the American League, but Edwin Diaz ultimately made this an easy choice. The man ran a 1.31 ERA as he allowed just nine runs in 62 innings, but even more impressive was a 0.90 FIP that represents the fourth lowest mark of all time (min. 50 innings) behind only 2012 Craig Kimbrel (0.78), 2003 Eric Gagne (0.86), and 2014 Aroldis Chapman (0.89). He was certainly helped by striking out 118 of the 235 batters he faced, good for a 50.2% strikeout rate that made him the third pitcher ever to strike out more than half the hitters he faced (min. 50 innings) after 2014 Chapman (52.5%) and 2012 Kimbrel (50.2%). Yeah, that'll play.

Others
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings
RHP Evan Phillips (Dodgers): 1.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 1.94 FIP, 77/15 K/BB in 63 innings
RHP Devin Williams (Brewers): 1.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.01 FIP, 96/30 K/BB in 60.2 innings

Thursday, October 6, 2022

2022 Dugout Edge Minor League Players of the Year

Another minor league season is in the books, the second since the league was contracted to 120 full season affiliates. Below we'll go through the hitters and pitchers that had the best statistical seasons this year. Minor league environments also vary fairly heavily, from hitters' havens like Reading and El Paso to pitchers' paradises in Palm Beach and Brooklyn, so that is of course taken into account. I did not take into account age relative to level or prospect status. A note on wRC+: Fangraphs wRC+ in the minor leagues is not park adjusted, so I used Baseball America's 2021 park adjustment factors to do so. The Guardians lead the way with four players (all pitchers) placed in this article, while the Yankees were the only other team with multiple names, again both pitchers.

2022 Minor League Position Player of the Year

Winner: OF Esteury Ruiz, Padres/Brewers (AA San Antonio, AAA El Paso, AAA Nashville)
Stat line: 16 HR, .332/.447/.526, 85 SB, 156 wRC+, 94/66 K/BB in 114 games.
Your 2022 Minor League Player of the Year is Esteury Ruiz, whose 2022 numbers just boggle the mind after leading all qualified full season minor leaguers in stolen bases and on-base percentage while still finding the time to knock 51 extra base hits. Coming into 2022, he already had 158 career stolen bases in 407 minor league games, including 36 in 2021, but he had never hit more than a dozen home runs in a season and had posted three straight seasons with an OPS below .740. All that changed this year, when he ran wild for 85 stolen bases in 114 games, a full fourteen ahead of second place Luis Valdez at 71 (who by the way slashed just .265/.339/.339 in 115 games). This year, eighteen different players stole at least fifty bases, and not only was Ruiz way out in front in that tally, but the next best OPS in that group was from Jonatan Clase at .837, .137 points behind Ruiz's .974. Most of his damage came at AA San Antonio, where he slashed .344/.474/.611 with nine home runs and 37 stolen bases in 49 games, but he was still an extremely tough out after a promotion to AAA, where he slashed .323/.428/.467 with 48 stolen bases in 65 games sandwiched around a trade from San Diego to Milwaukee in the Josh Hader deal. The 23 year old filled up the box score to a degree unmatched by anybody else in the minors this year, and for that reason he is the Minor League Player of the Year.

Runner-up: OF Vaun Brown, Giants (Low A San Jose, High A Eugene, AA Richmond)
Stat line: 23 HR, .346/.437/.623, 44 SB, 178 wRC+, 119/47 K/BB in 103 games.
Vaun Brown is a very close runner up to Esteury Ruiz, and a year ago almost he certainly did not expect to be in this position. A tenth round pick as a 23 year old fifth year senior out of Division II Florida Southern, Brown signed for just $7,500 with the primary purpose of being a money saver for fourth rounder Eric Silva. Both Brown and the $1.5 million man started off at Low A San Jose this year, but it was Brown who stole the show by slashing .346/.427/.636 with 14 home runs in 59 games to earn a promotion to High A Eugene. He picked up right where he left off, slashing .350/.454/.611 with nine home runs in 43 games, and got to play one game at AA Richmond to close out the season. The end result was a staggering season in which he led all qualified full season minor leaguers with a 1.059 OPS despite San Jose and Eugene playing relatively neutral in terms of being hitter or pitcher friendly. In addition to that huge OPS, he was one of six minor leaguers to join the 20/40 home run/stolen base club, and Reds prospect Elly De La Cruz (28/47) was the only player to both out-homer and out-steal him. Now Brown is on the older side, having turned 24 in June by nature of having been a fifth year senior sign, but he could not possibly have had a better debut and looks on track to become a contributor in San Francisco as soon as late next year. Matt Carpenter signed as a fifth year senior, too.

Honorable mention: C Endy Rodriguez, Pirates (High A Greensboro, AA Altoona, AAA Indianapolis)
Stat line: 25 HR, .323/.407/.590, 4 SB, 157 wRC+, 101/60 K/BB in 125 games.
Henry Davis is the catcher of the future in Pittsburgh, or at least he's supposed to be after going first overall in the 2021 draft out of Louisville. However, Davis battled injuries this year and it was a 21-22 year old Dominican backstop named Endy Rodriguez who at the very least will give him some competition back there, if he hasn't already started to take the lead. He signed with the Mets for just $10,000 in 2018 and came over to the Pirates as an under the radar piece in the Joe Musgrove/David Bednar deal, and quietly began to make a name for himself in his new organization with solid years in 2019 and 2021 (the 2020 minor league season was cancelled). The Pirates sent him to High A Greensboro to start the season and he began to break out, slashing .302/.392/.544 with 16 home runs over 88 games in a hitter-friendly environment, but the real breakout came after he was promoted to AA Altoona, believe it or not. In 37 games between Altoona (31 games) and AAA Indianapolis (6 games), he slashed .371/.444/.693 with nine home runs in much more neutral environments, and now suddenly Davis may not feel too comfortable as the team's best catching prospect. The switch-hitting backstop finished fourth among all qualified full season minor league hitters with his .996 OPS, which is simply incredible when you consider that J.T. Realmuto led all major league catchers at .820 and finished in 25th place on the overall leaderboard. Catchers don't hit like MVP's, but Endy Rodriguez did just that this season.

Others
SS Addison Barger (Blue Jays): 26 HR, .308/.378/.555, 9 SB, 150 wRC+ in 124 games
SS Elly De La Cruz (Reds): 28 HR, .304/.359/.586, 47 SB, 144 wRC+ in 120 games
SS Gunnar Henderson (Orioles): 19 HR, .297/.416/.531, 22 SB, 154 wRC+ in 112 games
1B Niko Kavadas (Red Sox): 26 HR, .280/.443/.547, 1 SB, 170 wRC+ in 120 games
1B Matt Mervis (Cubs): 36 HR, .309/.379/.605, 2 SB, 151 wRC+ in 137 games

2022 Minor League Pitcher of the Year

Winner: RHP Andrew Painter, Phillies (Low A Clearwater, High A Jersey Shore, AA Reading)
Stat line: 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.02 FIP, 155/25 K/BB in 103.2 innings.
The top high school pitcher in the 2021 class for much of the cycle, Andrew Painter gave us all a taste with six scoreless innings in the Florida Complex League last year before breaking out with an incredible 2022. The Phillies sent him to Low A Clearwater like most advanced high schoolers, so he just went out and struck out 46.3% of his opponents in 38.2 innings and earned a quick promotion to High A Jersey Shore not long after his 19th birthday. There, all he did was drop his ERA from 1.40 at Low A to 0.98 at High A over 36.2 innings, earning a second promotion all the way to AA Reading where he was one of the youngest players in the league. The end result was the second lowest ERA, the and lowest WHIP, and by far the lowest FIP among all minor league pitchers who threw at least one hundred innings. He struck out 38.7% of those he faced all year long with just a 6.2.% walk rate, and overall it's not even close in my opinion. Andrew Painter was, with daylight, the best pitcher in the minors this year.

Runner-up: RHP Tanner Bibee, Guardians (High A Lake County, AA Akron)
Stat line: 2.17 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.80 FIP, 167/27 K/BB in 132.2 innings.
Between Tanner Bibee, Jack Leftwich, Will Dion, Gavin Williams, Davis Sharpe, and many others, it was a banner year for Guardians pitching prospects and Bibee was right there leading the pack. A fifth round pick out of Cal State Fullerton, he went straight to High A Lake County and showed well in twelve starts, earning a promotion to AA Akron midway through the season. Though his strikeout rate dropped from 37.2% to 28.4%, his overall numbers were actually better after the promotion as he dropped his ERA from 2.59 to 1.83 while his WHIP dropped from 1.07 to 0.88. Overall, he was one of just three minor league pitchers (min. 100 innings) with a FIP below 3.00, a WHIP below 1.00, and a strikeout rate above 30% – the other two are Andrew Painter and Jack Leftwich, the other two starters to earn write ups.

Honorable mention: RHP Jack Leftwich, Guardians (Low A Lynchburg, High A Lake County)
Stat line: 2.72 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 140/24 K/B in 109.1 innings.
Jack Leftwich and Tanner Bibee were very close in their numbers, and Bibee just got the edge because he threw 23.1 more innings and was a level above Leftwich coming from the same draft class. Though he started off down at Low A Lynchburg, it's actually one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums at that level and he still managed a 2.39 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP before his mid-season promotion the day after Bibee went to Akron. Replacing Bibee in the Lake County rotation, he continued to put up strong numbers and finished along with Painter and Bibee in that 100 inning, 3.00 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 30% strikeout club. Painter led the minors in strikeout minus walk rate at 32.4%, but Leftwich finished third at 27.4% (and Bibee fourth). After an up and down career at Florida, it was a huge year for the Orlando native.

Others
RHP Luis Devers (Cubs): 1.91 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.90 FIP, 122/26 K/BB in 117.2 innings
LHP Will Dion (Guardians): 2.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 157/34 K/BB in 128 innings
RHP Bryce Miller (Mariners): 3.16 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.49 FIP, 163/46 K/BB in 133.2 innings
RHP Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 3.83 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.21 FIP, 218/33 K/BB in 167 innings
RHP Gavin Stone (Dodgers): 1.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.44 FIP, 168/44 K/BB in 121.2 innings

2022 Minor League Reliever of the Year

LHP Joe LaSorsa, Rays (High A Bowling Green, AA Montgomery)
Stat line: 2.33 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 2.93 FIP, 87/10 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Andrew Painter was the runaway winner for Minor League Pitcher of the Year, but the reliever market was much closer with no one reliever breaking away from the pack. Rays reliever Joe LaSorsa, who was an eighteenth round pick out of St. John's in 2019, came the closest in a surprise breakout season. Few pitchers in professional baseball where better about limiting baserunners, with LaSorsa's 0.82 WHIP finishing third among all minor league pitchers who threw at least fifty innings (and first among all with at least 62 innings). 25 pitchers (min. 50 innings) walked fewer than 4% of their opponents, but LaSorsa was one of just three in that group to strike out greater than 30% and the only one to also keep his ERA below 3.00. He was especially deadly against lefties, who slashed a hapless .144/.198/.267 against him while striking out 39.6% of the time.

Others
LHP Edgar Barclay (Yankees): 1.74 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.22 FIP, 86/20 K/BB in 67.1 innings
RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees): 2.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 2.48 FIP, 95/19 K/BB in 63.1 innings
RHP Davis Sharpe (Guardians): 2.02 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 87/12 K/BB in 71.1 innings