1-8: OF Robert Hassell III, Independence HS (TN)
CBA-34: RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS (TX)
2-45: OF Owen Caissie, Notre Dame HS (ON)
3-80: RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia
4-109: RHP Levi Thomas, Troy
5-139: LHP Jagger Haynes, West Columbus HS (NC)
A year ago, the Padres became the first team ever to hand out a $3 million signing bonus in the third round, drawing high school outfielder Hudson Head away from an Oklahoma commitment with first round money. This year, they broke their own record by giving Cole Wilcox $3.3 million in the same round, and that defined their draft class even more so than first rounder Robert Hassell. That meant htey had to go under slot for each of their other five picks, and they did so in typical Padres fashion by four high schoolers. Did it work out for them? In order to figure that out, I'd pretend Wilcox was the competitive balance pick and "bump" Justin Lange and Owen Caissie down a round, making Lange the "second round" pick and Caissie the "third round" pick. In that case, I think they came away with a solid class, though it comes with a lot of risk. Robert Hassell is about as low risk as it gets for a high schooler but it's still an under slot high schooler in the top ten. Lange and Caissie are extreme boom/bust types even by high school standards, as is fifth rounder and deep sleeper Jagger Haynes. Wilcox is still kind of boom/bust for a college pitcher, especially given his massive signing bonus, leaving Levi Thomas as the only true "safe bet" type in the fourth round. It's an interesting class for sure, with a ton of upside if things work out.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-8: OF Robert Hassell III, Independence HS, TN (my rank: 17)
As you can tell by my ranking, there are quite a few players I would have taken ahead of Hassell at this point in the draft, but that's more an endorsement of the immense talent in this class than it is an indictment of Hassell's talent. It also helps that the Padres got him significantly under slot. Coming out of the Nashville area, he has the best hit tool in the prep class, showing the ability to make hard contact against even the best pitching he faced. He can be a little bit streaky at times, but for the most part, he has simply dominated his competition. Hassell brings an extremely professional approach to the plate, easily identifying fastballs from breaking balls and balls from strikes, and his clean, smooth left handed swing enables him to execute hard contact all over the field. He's hit over power and will likely always be that way, as he's pretty skinny at 6'2" and doesn't look like he'll be able to add a ton of bulk. There were times over the summer when he tried to tap into more power, but that often came at the expense of his prodigious hit tool, and scouts believe he'll be best off allowing his home runs to come naturally. I think there is a chance he could hit 20+ home runs a year in the majors at his ceiling, but I think he's more likely to fall in the 10-20 range and derive his value from very high on-base percentages. He's a good runner who makes all the plays in the outfield, and he'll likely end up either a decent/playable center fielder or an above average right fielder. With an August birthday, he's a bit old for the class, but the Padres don't seem to mind that. He's been compared to Mariners star prospect Jarred Kelenic, who had a very similar profile out of high school and who was also old for his class, though Kelenic has a bit more power and Hassell is a bit faster. The top recruit in another loaded Vanderbilt class, he instead signed with the Padres for $4.3 million, which was about $880,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-34: RHP Justin Lange, Llano HS, TX (my rank: 68)
There's something I have to get out of the way first, and it's going to pain some Spanish speaking or Spanish-familiar Padres fans out in San Diego, but it's not pronounced "yawn-oh" like it's supposed to be. Llano, Texas is instead said like "LAN-oh," rhyming with "piano." Sorry about that. Anyways, Justin Lange is all about projection. He's a 6'4" right hander from the small town of Llano in the heart of Texas, and most importantly, he can touch 100 miles per hour. A year ago, he was sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and looked like he needed to go to school to fill out, but his velocity has shot up since then and he was sitting comfortably in the mid to upper 90's this spring. And it's not as if he suddenly started throwing as hard as he could – the velocity comes very easily, as his loose arm cranks it up with a pretty natural motion. Now, how well he repeats that delivery is another question. I'm going to repeat the language I used in his pre-draft profile in saying that he's really just "flinging" the ball. His arm works extremely naturally at these high speeds, but in the end, he's really just letting it all fly and flinging the baseball in the general direction of the plate. He has well below average command at this point, and the Padres will have their work cut out for them in streamlining his delivery and getting his arm moving in the same, repeatable slot every pitch. They'll also have to help develop his secondaries, as his slider can flash solid average but is typically more of a fringy pitch, and it's been known to miss the zone by feet rather than inches. There's a changeup as well, but it's also well below average. Right now, the Padres are buying his three big plusses: size, velocity, and naturally loose arm. Everything else will have to be crafted, and that includes refining his delivery, bringing some depth out of his slider, and building up his changeup. It's a really interesting upside play that also carries extreme risk. Lange signed away from his Dallas Baptist commitment for $2 million, which was about $150,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.
2-45: OF Owen Caissie, Notre Dame HS, ON (my rank: 123)
The third straight high schooler to start off this draft, Owen Caissie probably has more in common with Justin Lange than he does with fellow prep outfielder Robert Hassell. Hailing from the Toronto area, he was also the first Canadian selected this year. He's a big dude at 6'4", with plenty of projection in his sturdy frame that could have him looking like a beast in a few years. He channels his strength into big raw power that plays as above average right now, but he should grow into true plus power pretty easily given the projection in his frame. On the flip side, though, he hasn't been as consistent with his hit tool, showing a significant amount of swing and miss in his game. Pessimists see the high bust-risk associated with strikeout-prone prep hitters and might be turned off by Caissie. However, optimists see a swing that doesn't put the barrel in the zone for very long and think some simple mechanical tweaks could get him up to an average or better hit tool. Given that he's also young for the class, just turning 18 a few days before I released this article here in July, he has more time to iron out that tool and it has been shown that age matters for high schoolers. An above average runner with a plus arm, he will probably slow down a little bit as he matures, and profiles as an above average right fielder down the line. There is extremely high risk associated with this pick, but the reward is very high as well and Caissie could develop into a 30 home run bat. Committed to Michigan, he instead signed with the Padres for $1.2 million, which was about $450,000 below slot.
3-80: RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (my rank: 22)
The Padres saved about $1.48 million in bonus pool space by going under slot in each of the first three rounds, and that enabled them to give Cole Wilcox $3.3 million, which was halfway between the slot values at picks #19 and #20, more than quadruple his own slot value, and just a million shy of what they gave Robert Hassell at eighth overall. Wilcox was a big name coming out of Heritage High School in northwestern Georgia in 2018 and could have easily gone in the first round if signable, but he was dead set on attending Georgia for school. Two years later, his stock was in a very similar place in the mid to late first round, but signability was again a factor and that knocked him down to the third round. The Padres are ecstatic to pick him up after he showed huge statistical progress from his freshman year (4.07 ERA, 64/38 K/BB in 59.2 IP) to his draft-eligible sophomore year (1.57 ERA, 32/2 K/BB in 23 IP), and while he didn't have to go up against the SEC this year, he did put up seven shutout innings with eleven strikeouts and no walks against a solid Georgia Tech lineup on February 29th. He's a really big 6'5" right hander who is still growing into his body a bit, and he comes with equally big stuff. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can reach as high as 98 with some run and sink, and he adds in two offspeed pitches in a slider and a changeup. The slider can be inconsistent, but it's usually at least average at worst and can flash plus when he really snaps it down. The changeup, meanwhile, is more consistently above average and gets great sink, and together he has three pitches that have a good chance to be true plus. In the past, he's had a hard time repeating his delivery consistently and that impacted his ability to throw strikes. He showed some modest improvement in that regard in 2020, and while his control (ability to throw strikes in general) is still well ahead of his command (ability to hit spots within the zone), he's better than he used to be, when he showed neither. As Wilcox continues to grow into his huge frame, I think his youth is a big positive in his profile, as his July birthday makes him old for a sophomore but younger than most of the juniors he went up against in the draft process. With three great pitches and improving command, Wilcox has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher for the Padres down the line, or a high level reliever if he never gets that command fully figured out. The $3.3 million signing bonus was more than $2.5 million above slot value in the third round but the Padres made it work. Pre-draft profile here.
4-109: RHP Levi Thomas, Troy (unranked)
Here is an interesting money saver. Levi Thomas was part of the same Cullman High School rotation and graduating class as 2017 Reds third rounder Jacob Heatherly, but he headed across Alabama to attend Troy for school. After a strong freshman season (1.96 ERA, 56/16 K/BB) and a solid sophomore year (4.24 ERA, 87/31 K/BB), he broke out with a huge start to his junior campaign with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. He doesn't have the world's loudest stuff, but he absolutely demolished the Northern Kentucky and Louisiana Tech lineups (11 shutout innings, 25 K's, 3 baserunners) and continued to hold his own against #1 Florida and a stronger Michigan State lineup (12 IP, 1 ER, 17 K's) nonetheless. He's a dogged competitor that will do anything to get you out, something Pitching Ninja captured in this Twitter thread. Stuff-wise, his fastball sits in the low 90's but gets great spin rates that enable it to play much faster than its velocity, and he adds a good slider that can flash above average at times. He shows solid average command, but his willingness to attack the zone and challenge hitters makes that aspect of his game play up as well. On the shorter side at 5'11", Thomas will need to prove he's durable enough to start, and he'll also have to work on improving a fringy changeup. If he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball and slider could tick up and his mentality would fit great. Given how deep this system is, I think there is more of a chance of that happening than not and I'm very interested to see what he could do in that role. Thomas' $80,000 signing bonus was $453,000 below slot.
5-139: LHP Jagger Haynes, West Columbus HS, NC (unranked)
The Padres have some history with prep lefties from Columbus County in rural southeastern North Carolina – MacKenzie Gore grew up in Whiteville, just twenty minutes down the road from where Haynes went to high school in Cerro Gordo. He's a very projectable 6'3" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds in a good breaking ball from an athletic, loose delivery. Right now, there are a lot of moving parts with long arm action that will need to be cleaned up a bit, but they key is the looseness and the Padres don't think they'll have a problem with that. He adds a solid breaking ball and a relatively advanced changeup for a high school pitcher, and with a September birthday, he was the youngest pitcher selected in the entire draft. There are a lot of rough edges to refine here, but San Diego is extremely high on this kid and they're envisioning an impact starting pitcher down the line. He's a nice sleeper to watch here at the end of the draft. Committed to UNC, Haynes instead signed for $300,000, which was $98,000 below slot.
Undrafted: C Adam Kerner, San Diego (unranked)
The Padres spent all six picks on players east of the Rocky Mountains, but in the undrafted free agent market, they came back home and signed Adam Kerner out of the University of San Diego. A product of Oaks Christian High School up in Thousand Oaks, he is a glove-first catcher who will definitely stick. A good athlete, he moves really well back there and shows a plus arm, giving him a very high baseline of value in a world where good catchers are scarce. He's an okay hitter who has slashed .305/.379/.472 with ten home runs and a 72/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 career games for the Toreros, showing a solid average hit tool and a little bit of sneaky power, though he doesn't draw a lot of walks. It's probably a little bit light to start, even with his glove, but it's a really nice backup profile, especially in the UDFA market.
Undrafted: RHP Chase Walter, Western Carolina (unranked)
Walter is an absolute mountain of a man, standing at a listed 6'7" and 260 pounds. The Atlanta-area native spent his college career in the starting rotation for Western Carolina, where he has missed a ton of bats (212 K's in 195.1 IP) but also missed the strike zone just as frequently (116 walks in same span). For that reason, he probably fits better in the bullpen in pro ball, especially in a deep Padres system, but he'll still be a project. Walter sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 96 as a starter, adding in a hard slider that misses plenty of bats. Bumping him to the bullpen could help him focus on improving his command a bit more and also see that fastball tick up to the mid 90's more consistently, which plays well below average right now. Even getting up to fringe-average could make him a very useful bullpen arm.
Showing posts with label Cole Wilcox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cole Wilcox. Show all posts
Saturday, July 11, 2020
Monday, June 8, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Who Could the Nationals Take at #22?
As a Nationals fan, I've put a lot of thought into the direction I'd like to see the Nationals go at pick #22. Predicting who they will take is pretty much guesswork, but as fans, we can look at the most likely options, choose one to latch onto, and hope. For context, these have been the Nationals' last five first round picks:
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
Friday, April 3, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Cole Wilcox
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/14/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.57 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 32/2 K/BB in 23 IP
Wilcox was a top prospect coming out of high school just outside Chattanooga, and he could have gone in the middle of the first round if he was signable. It turned out that he wasn't, and he ended up heading to Georgia. His freshman 2019 season with the Bulldogs was up and down, as he put up a 4.07 ERA and a 64/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, and his brief Cape Cod League stint wasn't any more consistent. In his first start, he struck out six over four shutout innings, but in his second and final start he allowed six runs while walking four over four innings. However, his sophomore 2020 season has been excellent, as he has walked just two batters while striking out 32 over 23 innings with a 1.57 ERA, and his best start of the season came against a strong Georgia Tech lineup when he struck out eleven over seven shutout innings. Unfortunately, the stoppage in play never gave him a chance to build on that.
Wilcox is a physical beast, listed at 6'5" and 232 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. His fastball comes in with consistent mid 90's heat and great movement, and he can run it up to 98 or higher when he needs to. He also has a slider in the mid 80's that fluctuates between average and plus, often showing serious late bite but occasionally shortening up a bit. At its worst, its velocity still makes it a tough pitch to square up. Lastly, he throws a very good changeup with similar mid 80's velocity and nice sinking action down in the zone, giving him three potential plus pitches. Coming from that big 6'5" frame, it's not easy squaring up against him.
The biggest question mark scouts have with Wilcox is the command. It's been shaky for most of his high school and college career, but after walking two batters in five innings in his season-opening start against Richmond, he has gone three starts spanning 18 innings without issuing a single free pass. That's certainly progress, though two of those three starts were against weak competition in Santa Clara and UMass, and scouts would have liked to have seen him maintain that progress against a tougher SEC schedule. His mechanics can waver a bit, as he struggles to keep his long arms and legs in sync at times, but he was doing a good job of repeating his delivery in 2020. So overall, put a question mark next to his command. Either way, the hope is that pro pitching can help him get more consistent with those mechanics, and in turn, his command. It does help that as a draft-eligible sophomore, he won't turn 21 until July, making him younger than most other 2020 college draftees.
Wilcox could realistically go just about anywhere in the first round outside the top ten to twelve picks. If scouts buy into the progress he made at the beginning of the season, that puts him right in the middle of the round and could push him into the low teens, but if teams opt for track record after a shortened season, he fits more towards the back of the round. He has a high ceiling as an impact starter and potential ace, but he comes with considerable risk as someone who has not consistently shown they can throw strikes. He also might be a tougher sign given how the play stoppage hurts his stock combined with the fact that if he returns to school next year, he'll still have two years of eligibility left.
2020 footage of Wilcox making hitters look really, really foolish
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/14/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-0, 1.57 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 32/2 K/BB in 23 IP
Wilcox was a top prospect coming out of high school just outside Chattanooga, and he could have gone in the middle of the first round if he was signable. It turned out that he wasn't, and he ended up heading to Georgia. His freshman 2019 season with the Bulldogs was up and down, as he put up a 4.07 ERA and a 64/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, and his brief Cape Cod League stint wasn't any more consistent. In his first start, he struck out six over four shutout innings, but in his second and final start he allowed six runs while walking four over four innings. However, his sophomore 2020 season has been excellent, as he has walked just two batters while striking out 32 over 23 innings with a 1.57 ERA, and his best start of the season came against a strong Georgia Tech lineup when he struck out eleven over seven shutout innings. Unfortunately, the stoppage in play never gave him a chance to build on that.
Wilcox is a physical beast, listed at 6'5" and 232 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. His fastball comes in with consistent mid 90's heat and great movement, and he can run it up to 98 or higher when he needs to. He also has a slider in the mid 80's that fluctuates between average and plus, often showing serious late bite but occasionally shortening up a bit. At its worst, its velocity still makes it a tough pitch to square up. Lastly, he throws a very good changeup with similar mid 80's velocity and nice sinking action down in the zone, giving him three potential plus pitches. Coming from that big 6'5" frame, it's not easy squaring up against him.
The biggest question mark scouts have with Wilcox is the command. It's been shaky for most of his high school and college career, but after walking two batters in five innings in his season-opening start against Richmond, he has gone three starts spanning 18 innings without issuing a single free pass. That's certainly progress, though two of those three starts were against weak competition in Santa Clara and UMass, and scouts would have liked to have seen him maintain that progress against a tougher SEC schedule. His mechanics can waver a bit, as he struggles to keep his long arms and legs in sync at times, but he was doing a good job of repeating his delivery in 2020. So overall, put a question mark next to his command. Either way, the hope is that pro pitching can help him get more consistent with those mechanics, and in turn, his command. It does help that as a draft-eligible sophomore, he won't turn 21 until July, making him younger than most other 2020 college draftees.
Wilcox could realistically go just about anywhere in the first round outside the top ten to twelve picks. If scouts buy into the progress he made at the beginning of the season, that puts him right in the middle of the round and could push him into the low teens, but if teams opt for track record after a shortened season, he fits more towards the back of the round. He has a high ceiling as an impact starter and potential ace, but he comes with considerable risk as someone who has not consistently shown they can throw strikes. He also might be a tougher sign given how the play stoppage hurts his stock combined with the fact that if he returns to school next year, he'll still have two years of eligibility left.
2020 footage of Wilcox making hitters look really, really foolish
Monday, June 4, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 High School RHP's
There has never been a right handed high school pitcher taken first overall, and that won't change this year, but there are plenty of guys who have stepped forward this spring and are pushing there way up into the first round. Georgia, Florida, and Texas are very well represented here, combining for eight of the top ten. You'll also notice that the shortest of the bunch stands 6'2" and that all of them can get into the mid 90's with ease.
1. Carter Stewart (Eau Gallie HS, FL)
A breakout candidate to start the season, Stewart indeed broke out in a big way and pushed himself from the back of the first round all the way into possibly the top ten or even top five picks. He stands 6'6", and with a very deliberate delivery with long arm action, the ball just seems to jump out of his hand. He can run that fastball into the mid and even upper 90's, contrasting it with a big power curveball that gives hitters a different look than the sliders that are becoming more and more common. His changeup is coming along, but with that plus-plus fastball/curve combination, he's got plenty for an 18 year old high school senior. He's committed to Mississippi State but won't get there, looking to come off the board in the top ten picks.
2. Cole Winn (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
Winn is another riser, jumping from borderline first rounder to potential top ten pick. The 6'2" righty has bumped his fastball up to the low to mid 90's while sharpening his slider, and while his stuff isn't as explosive as Stewart's, his delivery is cleaner and he offers better control. He's very advanced for a high school pitcher, one who already looks like a mid-rotation starter, and he's less of a bust candidate than most high school right handers. He also is known to have a very good work ethic, which is always a big bonus. He's committed to TCU but probably won't be around once the middle of the first round passes.
3. Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA)
The second straight Cole W. on this list, Wilcox has had a very good spring and has moved himself up draft boards in the process. Standing 6'5", he now works in the low to mid 90's and has hit 98 a few times, and his changeup is extremely advanced for a high school pitcher. His slider is just decent, but it looks good at times and with pro coaching should become more consistently above average. Despite a weird delivery that includes a lot of moving parts and that will have to be altered, he throws plenty of strikes and is very polished for his age. He is old for his class, turning 19 in July, but that is okay given his polish. He's committed to Georgia and supposedly has a high price tag, but if teams are willing to pay up, he should be signable in that mid first round range.
4. Kumar Rocker (North Oconee HS, GA)
Rocker jumped onto the radar early, and though his stock has faded a little bit this spring, especially with a rough start against Wilcox at the end of the season, he still projects as a first round arm. The huge 6'5", 250 pound righty can run his fastball into the upper 90's and typically sits in the mid 90's with a wipeout slider. He usually has good command, but it can be inconsistent, as with his mechanics, and he carries considerable risk. However, if everything breaks right, he has ace potential. He's committed to Vanderbilt.
5. Ethan Hankins (Forsythe Central HS, GA)
Hankins marks the third straight North Georgia arm and the second straight Vanderbilt commit who has seen his stock drop this spring. Hankins has the best fastball in the entire draft class, throwing it in the mid 90's and running it up to 98, and it runs so much that he should be able to just blow it by hitters all the way up to the mid-minors. He also has a very good changeup that makes his fastball even more unhittable, though his slider has been down this spring and he'll need to refine it further if he wants to have any success as a starting pitcher. The big question mark for him, though, is health, as he missed time with a shoulder injury and took a while to look right, even after returning from it. If he blows out his shoulder, that could be a career changer, and not in a good way. He is a wild card in terms of where he will be drafted, possibly coming off the board as early as the middle of the first round but also possibly falling to the beginning of the second round and signing an over-slot deal.
6. Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL)
Like Hankins, Denaburg has also missed time this spring with injuries, but they're not as serious. He's a 6'3" righty with a fastball in the low to mid 90's and a curveball with good shape, though he'll need to improve its consistency. He's ultra-athletic, finding success as a hitter as well as a punter and kicker in football, so once he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to incorporate that athleticism into even better results. He's a bit raw mechanically, which is understandable. Because he's committed to Florida for both baseball and football, he'll be a tough sign, but teams like him and he could go as high as the middle of the first round.
7. Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX)
Rodriguez has been yet another riser this spring, showing up in better shape and with as much arm strength as anybody in the class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but he has run it up to 98 and its heavy life generates plenty of ground balls. His hard biting slider gives another look, and he can throw a curveball and a changeup as well. He has an arm-heavy delivery that includes holding the ball behind his back for a long time, which will probably have to be changed if he doesn't want to tip his pitches. The 6'5" Texan is committed to Texas A&M.
8. Adam Kloffenstein (Magnolia HS, TX)
Kloffenstein is another 6'5" Texas right hander, something of a cliche at this point, and while he doesn't throw as hard as Rodriguez, his slider is just as good and he also shows an advanced changeup. He can run his fastball into the mid 90's with sink, and like Rodriguez, he also has a curveball. Kloffenstein is young for his class, not turning 18 until August, and is committed to TCU. He is a teammate of fellow potential first rounder Jordan Groshans and could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the first half of the second round.
9. Gunnar Hoglund (Fivay HS, FL)
Hoglund is a personal favorite of mine, one who hasn't gotten as much scouting love as I would think. He's a 6'4" righty who throws in the low to mid 90's, and while his fastball doesn't sink like Rodriguez's and Kloffenstein's, it has plenty of run. His curve is not as advanced as those above him, but I like its shape, and he throws a changeup as well. His command is good, as is his delivery, so all he really needs to focus on are those secondary pitches. He's committed to Ole Miss and is likely a second round pick.
10. Lenny Torres Jr. (Beacon HS, NY)
Torres is an interesting pitcher, one who is skinny and stands just 6'2", small for a pitcher, but he throws in the mid 90's and can unfurl a pretty good slider as well. He's from a cold weather state and is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until October, so he is a fresh arm that can be molded however his drafting team likes. There is some risk that he could wind up a reliever, but his ceiling is too good to pass up. He could come off the board as an under-slot pick at the back of the first round, but most likely fits in the supplemental round or in the second.
Others: Owen White (Carson HS, NC), J.T. Ginn (Brandon HS, MS), Jaden Hill (Ashdown HS, AR), Braydon Fisher (Clear Falls HS, TX), Jayson Schroeder (Juanita HS, WA)
1. Carter Stewart (Eau Gallie HS, FL)
A breakout candidate to start the season, Stewart indeed broke out in a big way and pushed himself from the back of the first round all the way into possibly the top ten or even top five picks. He stands 6'6", and with a very deliberate delivery with long arm action, the ball just seems to jump out of his hand. He can run that fastball into the mid and even upper 90's, contrasting it with a big power curveball that gives hitters a different look than the sliders that are becoming more and more common. His changeup is coming along, but with that plus-plus fastball/curve combination, he's got plenty for an 18 year old high school senior. He's committed to Mississippi State but won't get there, looking to come off the board in the top ten picks.
2. Cole Winn (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
Winn is another riser, jumping from borderline first rounder to potential top ten pick. The 6'2" righty has bumped his fastball up to the low to mid 90's while sharpening his slider, and while his stuff isn't as explosive as Stewart's, his delivery is cleaner and he offers better control. He's very advanced for a high school pitcher, one who already looks like a mid-rotation starter, and he's less of a bust candidate than most high school right handers. He also is known to have a very good work ethic, which is always a big bonus. He's committed to TCU but probably won't be around once the middle of the first round passes.
3. Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA)
The second straight Cole W. on this list, Wilcox has had a very good spring and has moved himself up draft boards in the process. Standing 6'5", he now works in the low to mid 90's and has hit 98 a few times, and his changeup is extremely advanced for a high school pitcher. His slider is just decent, but it looks good at times and with pro coaching should become more consistently above average. Despite a weird delivery that includes a lot of moving parts and that will have to be altered, he throws plenty of strikes and is very polished for his age. He is old for his class, turning 19 in July, but that is okay given his polish. He's committed to Georgia and supposedly has a high price tag, but if teams are willing to pay up, he should be signable in that mid first round range.
4. Kumar Rocker (North Oconee HS, GA)
Rocker jumped onto the radar early, and though his stock has faded a little bit this spring, especially with a rough start against Wilcox at the end of the season, he still projects as a first round arm. The huge 6'5", 250 pound righty can run his fastball into the upper 90's and typically sits in the mid 90's with a wipeout slider. He usually has good command, but it can be inconsistent, as with his mechanics, and he carries considerable risk. However, if everything breaks right, he has ace potential. He's committed to Vanderbilt.
5. Ethan Hankins (Forsythe Central HS, GA)
Hankins marks the third straight North Georgia arm and the second straight Vanderbilt commit who has seen his stock drop this spring. Hankins has the best fastball in the entire draft class, throwing it in the mid 90's and running it up to 98, and it runs so much that he should be able to just blow it by hitters all the way up to the mid-minors. He also has a very good changeup that makes his fastball even more unhittable, though his slider has been down this spring and he'll need to refine it further if he wants to have any success as a starting pitcher. The big question mark for him, though, is health, as he missed time with a shoulder injury and took a while to look right, even after returning from it. If he blows out his shoulder, that could be a career changer, and not in a good way. He is a wild card in terms of where he will be drafted, possibly coming off the board as early as the middle of the first round but also possibly falling to the beginning of the second round and signing an over-slot deal.
6. Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL)
Like Hankins, Denaburg has also missed time this spring with injuries, but they're not as serious. He's a 6'3" righty with a fastball in the low to mid 90's and a curveball with good shape, though he'll need to improve its consistency. He's ultra-athletic, finding success as a hitter as well as a punter and kicker in football, so once he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to incorporate that athleticism into even better results. He's a bit raw mechanically, which is understandable. Because he's committed to Florida for both baseball and football, he'll be a tough sign, but teams like him and he could go as high as the middle of the first round.
7. Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX)
Rodriguez has been yet another riser this spring, showing up in better shape and with as much arm strength as anybody in the class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but he has run it up to 98 and its heavy life generates plenty of ground balls. His hard biting slider gives another look, and he can throw a curveball and a changeup as well. He has an arm-heavy delivery that includes holding the ball behind his back for a long time, which will probably have to be changed if he doesn't want to tip his pitches. The 6'5" Texan is committed to Texas A&M.
8. Adam Kloffenstein (Magnolia HS, TX)
Kloffenstein is another 6'5" Texas right hander, something of a cliche at this point, and while he doesn't throw as hard as Rodriguez, his slider is just as good and he also shows an advanced changeup. He can run his fastball into the mid 90's with sink, and like Rodriguez, he also has a curveball. Kloffenstein is young for his class, not turning 18 until August, and is committed to TCU. He is a teammate of fellow potential first rounder Jordan Groshans and could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the first half of the second round.
9. Gunnar Hoglund (Fivay HS, FL)
Hoglund is a personal favorite of mine, one who hasn't gotten as much scouting love as I would think. He's a 6'4" righty who throws in the low to mid 90's, and while his fastball doesn't sink like Rodriguez's and Kloffenstein's, it has plenty of run. His curve is not as advanced as those above him, but I like its shape, and he throws a changeup as well. His command is good, as is his delivery, so all he really needs to focus on are those secondary pitches. He's committed to Ole Miss and is likely a second round pick.
10. Lenny Torres Jr. (Beacon HS, NY)
Torres is an interesting pitcher, one who is skinny and stands just 6'2", small for a pitcher, but he throws in the mid 90's and can unfurl a pretty good slider as well. He's from a cold weather state and is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until October, so he is a fresh arm that can be molded however his drafting team likes. There is some risk that he could wind up a reliever, but his ceiling is too good to pass up. He could come off the board as an under-slot pick at the back of the first round, but most likely fits in the supplemental round or in the second.
Others: Owen White (Carson HS, NC), J.T. Ginn (Brandon HS, MS), Jaden Hill (Ashdown HS, AR), Braydon Fisher (Clear Falls HS, TX), Jayson Schroeder (Juanita HS, WA)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)