Ole Miss, Texas Tech, and Gunnar Hoglund’s coming out party

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on February 25th.

It was a gorgeous, 73 degree day at Globe Life Field on Sunday, something that wouldn’t seem out of the ordinary in Arlington, Texas, even in February. However, it stood in stark contrast to the previous week, when temperatures plummeted near zero in the very same parking lot and millions of Texans were left in the dark. I spent the week huddled in my dark apartment with ice creeping through the window frames, alternating between eating canned tuna and braving the snowy, hour-long drive through line at the Whataburger, which served as a metaphorical soup kitchen for a desperate Metroplex. By Friday, when the State Farm College Baseball Showdown was set to start, temperatures had finally peaked just above freezing, but the tournament was delayed by a day as the Lone Star State continued to grapple with busted pipes, unsafe drinking water, and continued power outages.

On the way into the ballpark on Sunday, there was an extra light-heartedness in the air, as thawed-out fans made their way past the last melting piles of snow and laughed. “I thought it was supposed to be colder today, but it’s beautiful out,” a man decked out in Red Raider red exclaimed. We were on our way to see Texas Tech match up with Ole Miss in a top ten matchup – well, technically every game that weekend was a top ten matchup. Once the TCU Horned Frogs downed the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the morning tilt, the Rebels and Red Raiders took the field.

Gunnar Hoglund

The Rebel ace could have easily started Friday, but I was lucky enough to catch him on a Sunday. Gunnar Hoglund has long been a household name for scouts, ever since he was the 36th overall pick by the Pirates out of Fivay High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2018. At the time, he showed good command of a low to mid 90’s fastball that had touched 96, but his secondary pitches needed refinement and the Pirates couldn’t meet his asking price. The big righty headed north to Oxford, Mississippi, where he held his own as a freshman in the SEC: 5.29 ERA, 53/14 K/BB in 68 IP. He came out much stronger in 2020, posting a 1.16 ERA and a 37/4 K/BB over 23.1 innings.

Coming into the season, scouts had a lot of questions for Hoglund to answer. After flashing a fastball up to 96 in high school, he regularly pitched in the upper 80’s and scraped 91-92 at his fastest for the Rebels. That 90-ish fastball came with impeccable command, arguably the best in the class, a product of a simple, clean, very easy delivery. It was clear Hoglund could throw harder if he wanted to. He had set a loopy curveball from his high school days off to the side in favor of a tighter slider, while his changeup remained his third pitch. So, we all knew he had both the arm strength and command, but would we ever see it at the same time?

Gunnar answered that in the first inning on Sunday. Right out of the gate, he sat 94-95 in the first inning and touched 96 multiple times. The slider looked sharper, too, coming in at 85-87, a few ticks higher than it had been in the past. Dru Baker, Cal Conley, and Dylan Neuse went down in order in the first, and off we went. He didn’t hold that velocity all game, instead ticking down to the 92-94 range for the bulk of his start before coming out 90-92 in his sixth and final inning, but even at the end he was throwing as hard as he ever had in Rebel blue.

While his command wasn’t pinpoint, Hoglund used his riding fastball to induce plenty of whiffs up in the zone, while his tight slider missed a number of bats in its own right. There were blemishes, such as a two run home run from Nate Rombach and an opposite field bomb from Dylan Neuse, both off fastballs, and he did walk three. However, two of the three walks were full count battles that took hard battles (Neuse) and tough takes (Kurt Wilson) to get there. In all, I was not concerned with Hoglund’s strike throwing despite his own high standards.

The final stat line wasn’t the shiniest: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 11 K.

But I choose to look at those eleven strikeouts (of twenty two batters faced), a factor of his newfound stuff. Outside of those few isolated incidents of hard contact from Rombach and Neuse, two extremely talented hitters in their own right, the majority of the Texas Tech lineup was overwhelmed by the stuff and struggled to touch him. Hoglund showed the same effortless delivery he’s always had, and as he gets more comfortable throwing in this higher velocity band, I think his command will remain plus. He was also flipping in that slider much more often than he has in the past, something else he’ll need to get comfortable with as opposed to pitching mostly off the fastball. Going forward, he’ll need to show that command, and he’ll also need to work in a changeup more often if he wants to go in the first round. But Sunday was a big step towards that.

Micah Dallas

Toeing the rubber against Hoglund was Texas Tech’s Micah Dallas, himself one of the top prospects in the Big 12. However, the North Texas native was not as sharp pitching forty miles from his hometown of Aubrey. Homeschooled in high school, he was unfazed by the Lonely Lubbock Lights (big props if you can tell me which West Texan sings that song) and was strong as a freshman (4.03 ERA, 84/28 K/BB). Then, like Hoglund, he was lights out as a sophomore in 2020 (0.57 ERA, 23/1 K/BB in 15.2 IP).

Dallas sat 90-91 for most of his outing, throwing up a few more 89’s later in the start. He leaned heavily on his low 80’s curveball, a pitch which flashes plus at its best. His delivery is not nearly as smooth as Hoglund’s, but he throws with conviction and pounds the zone nonetheless. From the start, it was clear that he did not have his best stuff, which is extremely dangerous against a lineup like Ole Miss, but he worked through it and held the Rebels off the board for the first two innings. However, they gradually began to figure him out, putting together more and more hard contact and broke through in the third. He never made it out of that inning, finishing with five runs (two earned) on three hits, two walks, and two strikeouts in 2.2 innings.

The Rebels’ five run third didn’t come out of nowhere. Jacob Gonzalez blasted a ball into the right field seats in the first inning, but it landed just to the right of the foul pole and he struck out later in the at bat. Ben Van Cleve roped a hot shot to third in the second inning, only to see it snared by Cal Conley. Trey LaFleur scorched one right at left fielder Max Marusak in the third. A few batters later, Gonzalez finally got him with a home run to the left of the foul pole, while Hayden Dunhurst and Hayden Leatherwood joined the party with singles of their own.

Micah Dallas has some work to do to prove he can start. The 89-91 velocity won’t quite be enough, and he already throws with some effort and lacks projection in his 6’2″ frame. But the building blocks are there. The curveball is an above average pitch that looks plus at its best, and it just flattened out as he leaned on it more and more heavily on Sunday. The Rebel hitters were able to sit back and wait for it. It also didn’t help that he fell behind in the count at times. The stuff played great out of the bullpen last year, and if he is forced into that role in pro ball, he could thrive with his competitiveness and ability to throw his stuff with convicion.

Brendan Girton

Once Leatherwood’s single knocked Dallas from the game, Texas Tech brought in true freshman Brendan Girton for his collegiate debut. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in northwestern Oklahoma, Girton was a notable draft prospect at nearby Shattuck High School but headed across the South Plains to campus in Lubbock. Immediately, the 6’1″, 230 pound righty put his power arm on display. In 3.1 innings, he would strike out four batters while allowing two hits and one walk, and none crossed the plate.

Girton ended the third inning on a pair of fastballs at 94, then touched 96 a few times in the fourth before dipping to more 92-93 in the fifth. He must have known the sixth would be his final inning, because he ratcheted it back up to 96 a few times to close it out. He also flashed a low 80’s slider, but really struggled to get it down. Out of the dozen or so that he threw, no more than a couple were located below the belt. Still, the fastball was effective enough to keep Rebel hitters off the slider, and overall he was the most effective Red Raider pitcher of the day. Going forward, Girton will have to work on locating that slider better, and he has a reliever outlook for now.

Hayden Dunhurst, Jacob Gonzalez

Hayden Dunhurst and Jacob Gonzalez may have grown up in very different places, but they’re two of the most talented recruits to make it to campus in Oxford over the last couple of seasons and they both had loud days at the dish. Dunhurst was a nationally-known name at Pearl River Central High School in the small southern Mississippi town of Carriere, then stayed in state for school. Gonzalez, meanwhile, was a talented draft prospect in his own right, coming all the way across the country from the Los Angeles suburb of Glendora. They were both in Arlington this weekend, and both showed why they are the future of Ole Miss baseball.

Dunhurst had already elevated his stock with five home runs in seventeen games as a freshman last year, placing himself near the top of the 2022 draft. He had himself a nice game, starting off by working a four pitch walk off Micah Dallas. In his next at bat, he lined a single into right field to give the Rebels a lead they wouldn’t give back, and he showed off his all-fields approach by lining a 93 MPH Brendan Girton fastball the other way in the sixth inning, though it was right at left fielder Max Marusak. He finished his night by knocking a ball straight into the dirt in front of home plate, only to be tagged out by catcher Nate Rombach before he left the batters box.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, had the louder night with the bat. In his first at bat of his second career game, he nearly took Dallas deep but hooked it just to the right of the foul pole. The ball had enough distance to get out, but it will show up as a strikeout in the box score. He righted the ship in the next at bat, blasting a hanging Dallas curveball to the correct side of the foul pole to tie the game at two apiece. And the next time up, he turned around 94 from Girton for a single to right. He finished his night with a strikeout at the hands of veteran lefty Eli Riechmann, but I came away extremely impressed with his bat. Gonzalez is just 18 years old, so keep an eye on him for the 2023 draft.

Nate Rombach, Dylan Neuse

Texas Tech had some interesting bats as well. Nate Rombach and Dylan Neuse both showed off for their hometown fans as sons of the Metroplex. Rombach attended the same Mansfield Legacy High School as Noah Syndergaard, then took Lubbock by storm by blasting six home runs in nineteen games as a freshman. In his first start of 2021, Rombach announced his presence loudly by blasting a 93 MPH Gunnar Hoglund fastball over the left center field fence, the first home run Hoglund had allowed in over 32 innings. In his next at bat, he got Hoglund again, this time squaring up an 87 MPH slider for a single to left field. Redshirt senior Austin Miller gave him a different look in his third at bat, and he ripped a mid 70’s curveball foul. Miller ended up catching him looking for the strikeout, so you won’t see it in the box score, but Rombach absolutely scorched three different pitches during the day – a fastball at 93, a hard slider, and a slow curveball. Max Cioffi got him swinging on a low 90’s fastball in the ninth, but Romach had already made his point for the day.

Dylan Neuse has been around a bit longer, as he has already been eligible for three different drafts before this one. The younger brother of Dodgers infielder and Oklahoma alum Sheldon Neuse, Dylan began his career at McLennan JC in Waco before transferring to Texas Tech. He hit .298/.408/.494 as a sophomore in 2019 then .355/.438/.487 as a junior in 2020, but went undrafted in the shortened event. Gunnar Hoglund struck out the Fort Worth native in that first-inning-heard-round-the-country mentioned earlier, but Neuse made adjustments and got his payback. He worked a really tough full count walk off the command master in the third inning, showing off his exceptional plate discipline. Then in the sixth inning, he really got Hoglund, taking 92 the other way for an opposite field home run. Anybody concerned about the power output from the 5’9″ right handed hitter likely came away less so after seeing that. Neuse did drop a fly ball near the warning track in center field, which wasn’t a great look but he might not have much experience playing in indoor stadiums. In all, he profiles as an all-around player who doesn’t stand out with any particular tool, but can beat you with strong feel for the barrel and the ability to make his tools play up.

Peyton Pallette

We’ll finish off with Peyton Pallette, who started on the mound for Arkansas against Texas. I needed to get home for something and couldn’t stay the whole time, but I caught the first two innings and I’m glad I did. Benton High School outside of Little Rock has been good to Arkansas before, sending them Cliff Lee, and they might have struck gold again. Pallette got into four games as a true freshman last year, allowing three runs (one earned) over 5.2 innings in relief. He wasn’t the most likely candidate to start a top ten matchup on a loaded pitching staff that includes Patrick Wicklander, Connor Noland, Zebulon Vermillion, and even freshman Nick Griffin, so I was slightly disappointed to I didn’t get to see a bigger name.

It took precisely one pitch, a 95 mile per hour fastball, to realize I was in for a treat. Before I could blink, Pallette had set down Austin Todd, Eric Kennedy, and Mike Antico in order, and this wasn’t just any trio; the three had 373 games and 342 hits combined under their belts, making for one of the most experienced, disciplined, and consistent top three’s of any lineup in the country. They didn’t look like it Sunday. Pallette never threw a fastball under 95 as he blew pitch after pitch by them, snapping off a sharp breaking ball as well that nobody could touch.

It only took Texas starter Tristan Stevens ten pitches to work through the bottom of the first inning, so I barely had a chance to even process what I just saw before he was back on the mound again. As brilliant as the first inning was, the second was better. Pallette set down Zach Zubia, Trey Faltine, and Ivan Melendez on strikes, the latter two on six straight fastballs at 95. Unreal. Unfortunately I had to leave after that sixth straight strike, but he went on to toss 4.1 shutout innings and strike out eight of the seventeen batters he faced. He wasn’t a priority follow coming into the season, but with just one start he’s rocketed himself into 2022 draft conversation with that wicked fastball/curveball combination.

An Early Look at the Low and Mid-Major Conferences (West): 2021 MLB Draft

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on January 22nd.

Last time, we talked about the loaded crop of mid-major talent east of the Mississippi River, from pitchers Sam Bachman and Mason Black to bats Ethan Wilson and Hunter Goodman. The west side of the river isn’t quite as fertile at this point, especially beyond Sam Houston State’s Colton Cowser, but it should be interesting nonetheless. The states of California and Texas dominate here, combining to produce eight out of the ten names. If the list had gone to thirteen, it would have been eleven of thirteen. This is also a pitcher-heavy group, as after Cowser, slots two through six bring five arms in a row.

1. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 195 lbs. Born 3/20/2000. Hometown: Cypress, TX
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.

Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs had quite the team a few years ago. Pitchers J.J. Goss and Matthew Thompson went 36th and 45th overall in 2019 to the Rays and White Sox, respectively, while another pitcher, Ty Madden, ended up at Texas and is a potential first round pick in 2021. Outfielder Colton Cowser was probably the fourth best player on that team and headed to Sam Houston State. However, after slashing .361/.450/.602 with seven home runs and a nice 29/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games as a freshman, he rocketed himself into the national conversation. An unremarkable start to 2020 (.255/.379/.364, 1 HR, 9/8 K/BB) may not have built his case further, but it didn’t do much to damper it and he’s easily the best mid-major prospect west of the Mississippi River.

First and foremost, Cowser stands out for his feel to hit. He has struck out in just 11.9% of his plate appearances at Sam Houston State, keeping low swing and miss rates and low chase rates on not only fastballs but offspeed pitches as well. It’s not just pure bat to ball skills with Cowser, as he also shows plus feel for the barrel that enables him to consistently drive the ball into the gaps and pop for some home runs too. He’s an above average runner who has stolen 14/16 bases for the Bearkats and should stick in center field, further adding to his leadoff profile.

At a wiry 6’3″, some evaluators think he can grow into above average power. He knocked 31 extra base hits (including seven home runs) as a freshman and added three doubles and a homer in 2020, all despite utilizing a flat swing that has led to a 46% ground ball rate. His proponents see that plus feel for the barrel, room to grow, and potential to add loft and can see 20-25 home runs per year. Some pessimists, however, don’t think he’ll get much bigger and will point to unremarkable exit velocities to say he projects for closer to 10-15. Regardless, it’s a first round profile for the Houstonian, one that can sit atop a big league lineup for years.

2. LHP Rodney Boone, UC Santa Barbara

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 175 lbs. Born 4/9/2000. Hometown: Orange, CA
2019-2020: 10-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 111/40 K/BB in 102.1 IP.

Some people really, really like Rodney Boone, while others aren’t as impressed. Regardless, it’s one of the more interesting profiles in this year’s draft. Boone has been as steady as they come for UC Santa Barbara, winning ten of eleven decisions and posting a 2.73 ERA across more than 100 innings, striking out 111 and walking 40 along the way. Now, the school that gave us Shane Bieber, Dillon Tate, and Ben Brecht in recent drafts has another potential Day One arm.

Boone is unique among Day One hopefuls in that he does not throw hard at all. Throughout his time in Santa Barbara, his fastball has typically sat in the mid to upper 80’s, but his stock has risen lately with reports he was hitting 90 this fall. Even with the velocity bump, he’s still fringy in that regard, but he gets good spin rates on the pitch and hitters don’t seem to pick it up. The Orange County native also adds a potentially plus changeup that generates a ton of whiffs, tunneling very well off his fastball and again proving difficult to pick up. His curveball is his third pitch for now, as he tends to bounce it. Hitters haven’t chased it much to this point, but they often swing and miss when they attempt at it, so getting more confident in the pitch could help him take another step forward.

Boone has some work to do, considering his fringy velocity gives him very few benefits of the doubt. First and foremost, he needs to maintain this slight uptick in velocity and perhaps even add another tick this spring, as 88 with good pitch data is still 88. His control also still stands out ahead of his command, which will be important when he can’t sneak as many 88 MPH fastballs by pro hitters as he can in the Big West. That’s another reason maintaining and improving upon his velocity gains will be important. The ceiling here is very interesting, however, with a very deceptive lefty who could potentially sit low 90’s with two above average secondary offerings and above average command.

3. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC Irvine

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 190 lbs. Born 11/29/1999. Hometown: El Dorado Hills, CA
2018-2020: 15-14, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 166/55 K/BB in 197.2 IP.

Sticking with crafty arms in the UC system, we’ll turn next to Irvine’s Trenton Denholm. The Anteater ace was eligible in 2020, but he was extremely young for his class and returns to campus for a fourth year while fitting right in age-wise with many other first-time eligible college players. Denholm has been absolutely lights out since the end of his freshman season, putting up a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UC Irvine the last two seasons while also shoving for 32.2 (!) shutout innings (one unearned run) over two summers on the Cape. Now, with a similar birthday to much of this year’s college class, he has one of the best overall track records of all.

Denholm’s stuff isn’t explosive, but he still leaves hitters shaking their heads. The fastball sits around 90, usually a tick above up to about 92-93. He throws a distinct curveball and slider, both of which are solid average pitches. His plus changeup is his best pitch, just fading and fading away from the left handed batters into some dark abyss. The Sacramento-area native shows above average command, but even that plays up because he’s absolutely fearless on the mound and will pound the zone with everything he has.

Denholm is far from the most physical arm in California, listed at a skinny 5’11”, but that hasn’t stopped him. Though he doesn’t project to add much velocity, it’s really easy to fall in love with his feel for pitching and bulldog mentality, and the results back it up. Denholm projects as a back-end starter or a long reliever due to his lack of velocity and swing and miss breaking stuff, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

4. RHP Dominic Hamel, Dallas Baptist

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 3/2/1999. Hometown: Chandler, AZ
2020: 2-0, 4.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 27/7 K/BB in 19.2 IP.

Interestingly, Dominic Hamel is actually draft-eligible for the fifth year in a row in 2021. After graduating from Hamilton High School in the Phoenix suburbs in 2017, he spent two years at Yavapai JC, then transferred to Dallas Baptist for the 2020 season. Hamel started off strong, allowing one earned run while striking out 19 over twelve innings against South Dakota State and UNC, but faltered against Arkansas State and Oral Roberts by allowing nine earned runs in 7.2 innings. Ultimately, it wasn’t enough to get drafted in the shortened event.

Hamel really interests progressive clubs that are confident in their pitching development (hint hint, @Rays). To this point, he hasn’t quite put everything together, but he does have a lot going for him. The Phoenix-area native sits comfortably in the low 90’s, topping out around 96, but makes the pitch play up significantly with great extension. He adds a pair of high spin breaking balls in a curve and slider, both of which can flash above average, though they’re inconsistent to this point. Hamel’s changeup isn’t much of a factor yet.

The 6’2″ righty has a sturdy, athletic frame, and his strike throwing ability has improved to near average. A data-savvy team will be eager to get their hands on his high spin stuff, and they could have a lot of fun tinkering with ways to play one pitch off another. Improving his consistency and adding a changeup will be key to raising Hamel’s floor, especially given that he’ll be 22 in March. The ceiling, though, is that of a mid-rotation starter, with a fallback option as a two or three pitch reliever that could sit more consistently in the mid 90’s with a true plus fastball.

5. RHP Tanner Bibee, Cal State Fullerton

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 190 lbs. Born 3/5/1999. Hometown: Mission Viejo, CA
2018-2020: 9-15, 3.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 169/52 K/BB in 181.1 IP.

Cal State Fullerton is a talent pipeline that has recently churned out tons of pitchability-types including Tom Eshelman, Connor Seabold, John Gavin, and Colton Eastman, and now Tanner Bibee looks to be next. He was steady over his first two years (4.15 ERA, 136/47 K/BB in 151.2 IP) and took a nice step forward in 2020 (2.73 ERA, 33/5 K/BB in 29.2 IP) against a pretty strong non-conference slate that included Stanford and Texas. He also showed well in the Cape Cod League in 2019 (3.38 ERA, 19/4 K/BB in 18.2 IP), giving himself a pretty strong track record to compete with arms who might have louder stuff.

Bibee hangs out in the low 90’s with his fastball, topping out around 93. The pitch plays up because he puts tough angle on the ball, pitching from the far third base side of the rubber and hiding the ball well from a closed off delivery. His slider is probably his best pitch, coming in around 80 with late tilt and flashing above average. At this point, the changeup grades out as below average, looking pretty flat most of the time. With above average command and pitchability, everything works together well.

It’s a pretty safe back-end starter profile for the Orange County native. While Bibee doesn’t possess even an average changeup unlike many of his peers in that demographic, he stands out a bit for his above average breaking ball. Teams looking to get a quick-to-the-big-leagues arm and perhaps save a little money in the process will be very interested in the 6’2″ righty, who was off to a hot start in 2020.

6. RHP Braden Olthoff, Tulane

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 220 lbs. Born 3/12/1999. Hometown: Vista, CA
2020: 4-0, 0.32 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 47/3 K/BB in 28 IP.

Few pitchers can match Braden Olthoff’s meteoric rise in recent years. A lightly recruited high school hitter, he picked up pitching as a senior and landed at Palomar College with a mid 80’s fastball. Two years later, he transferred to Tulane with increased velocity and shoved; over four starts, he allowed one earned run and just fifteen baserunners while striking out 47 of the 101 batters he faced, good for the third best ERA, third most strikeouts, and fourth best WHIP in Division I (min. 20 innings). He went undrafted last year, but has a chance to continue his climb in 2021 (though I’m pretty sure he’s reached his ceiling as far as performance goes). Though he didn’t face the strongest competition, he did out-duel Tanner Bibee with a complete game, sixteen strikeout shutout against Cal State Fullerton.

Since high school, the 6’4″ Olthoff has added about six or seven miles per hour to his fastball and now sits in the low 90’s, topping out around 94. He mixes in an average curveball with nice depth that he can also morph into a slider, working well between the two. Olthoff’s best pitch is probably his changeup, which gets above average grades and plays well off his other three pitches. Of course, everything plays up due to plus command and pitchability, as well as the ability to hide the ball behind his 6’4″ frame. Also going in the San Diego-area native’s favor is durability, as he throws almost effortlessly and is built like a prototypical starting pitcher.

Once you get to Day Two in the draft, it can get difficult to differentiate between a glut of pitchability arms. Olthoff stands out due to his 2020 performance, first and foremost, but also due to his trajectory. He has not only improved, but leapt forward every year since high school. It might be hard to project yet another big leap in 2021, but slight improvements to his breaking balls or perhaps another tick on his fastball could push him into top 100 consideration, especially if he goes out and shoves like he did in 2020.

7. C Shane McGuire, San Diego

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 195 lbs. Born 4/12/1999. Hometown: Kent, WA
2018-2020: 3 HR, .320/.442/.407, 7 SB, 65/75 K/BB in 117 games.

Shane McGuire gives us a sixth straight player who was eligible in 2020 but returned to school. The younger brother of Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire, Shane won’t match his brother’s first round pedigree but has a chance to be a similar player. He has improved every year at San Diego and was off to a blazing start in 2020, slashing .469/.561/.688 with one home run and just two strikeouts in twelve games. That came on the heels of a .325/.444/.401 sophomore season and he has a great track record with wood bats, which is made even better by the fact that he will likely stick behind the plate.

McGuire stands out most for his plate discipline. After striking out in 16.7% of his plate appearances as a freshman in 2018, he cut that to 10.6% in 2019 and then just 4.9% in the shortened 2020 season, all while walking a combined 14.8% of the time over three years (vs. a 12.8% overall K rate). McGuire works counts, selects hittable pitches while letting the bad ones go, and makes contact with the ones he does select. He has some loft and whip in his left handed swing, though to this point his power plays well below average despite his feel for the barrel. Learning to get a little more extension could perhaps get him closer to 45-50 grade pop.

The Seattle-area native shows a strong, accurate arm behind the plate that helps him control the running game. His glovework is a bit choppier, but he’s gotten better in that regard and being the brother of a big league catcher will continue to work in his favor. Unless he really improves his power output, it’s hard to project McGuire as a future starter, but his elite plate discipline and long track record of getting on base give him a high floor. He’s one of the safer-bet backup catchers in this year’s draft once you get into Day Two of the draft.

8. SS Wyatt Young, Pepperdine

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’7″, 160 lbs. Born 12/5/1999. Hometown: Honolulu, HI
2019-2020: 2 HR, .311/.357/.350, 5 SB, 44/17 K/BB in 64 games.

Listed at 5’7″, 160 pounds, Wyatt Young is one of the smallest players in this year’s draft and will earn plenty of comparisons to former Oregon State shortstop Nick Madrigal. He’s put up a nice track record over two years in Malibu, slashing .311/.357/.350 over 64 games, and he also put up an impressive .340/.413/.440 line over 42 games in the Cape Cod League in 2019. With Eric Thames signing to play in Japan and Zach Vincej floating around the upper minors, there are no former Pepperdine Waves in MLB, so Young will look to change that (if A.J. Puckett doesn’t beat him to it).

As with Colton Cowser at the top of this list, Young’s selling point is his bat. He makes extremely easy contact, having struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances at Pepperdine and 16.3% on the Cape. However, unlike Shane McGuire just ahead of him on this list, it’s more of a product of pure bat to ball skills than strong plate discipline. Young routinely puts the ball in play early in the count, which to this point has limited his walk rate to 5.6% for the Waves. While he’s adept at finding holes in the defense and poking the ball into gaps, especially to the opposite field, he lacks the physicality to drive the ball to the wall, leading to pretty empty batting averages overall. Defensively, he mans shortstop for Pepperdine, but more athletic and more physical defenders will likely push him to second base in pro ball.

Young’s plus bat to ball skills give him a very high floor in pro ball. He will have no problem putting the ball in play against advanced arms, and on the Cape he showed that he can still find the gaps against those kinds of arms. The Honolulu native’s lack of power likely limits his ceiling, so his path to a full time big league job will rest on getting more patient at the plate and upping that on-base percentage. Still, he likely profiles as a bench option and appeals most to old school teams.

9. RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 175 lbs. Born 11/23/1999. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA
2019-2020: 3-11, 5.70 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 72/42 K/BB in 90 IP.

As of 2018, Owen Sharts was probably the best prospect of these ten players. A potential top five rounds pick, he instead enrolled at Nevada and struggled as a freshman, putting up a 5.96 ERA and a 40/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. In 2020, he was hit around by Portland and Cal Baptist (combined 9 IP, 10 ER, 18 H), but also showed progress by dominating Oregon and Hofstra (combined 13 IP, 2 ER, 19/3 K/BB). Reno can be a tough place to pitch, and while the ERA hasn’t quite been there, he has done a good job controlling the strike zone and finished with a 32/7 K/BB in 2020. He also looked very good in the Cape Cod League in 2019, his 4.82 ERA hiding the fact that he looked dominant in all but one very rough outing.

Sharts joins the glut of back-end starter types in this group, coming in with a wide array of strengths but no true differentiators. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and he does a good job of holding that velocity, while his downer curveball and changeup project as average while flashing a few 55’s. The command isn’t pinpoint, but the Los Angeles-area native controls the strike zone well by going right after hitters with three big league pitches. He’s not built like a true horse, listed at 6’1″ and 175 pounds, but he has a clean delivery and repeats it pretty well.

To this point, I don’t think Sharts has really differentiated himself like Tanner Bibee has with his slider or Braden Olthoff has with his changeup and performance. In 2021, Sharts could use a little more consistency, as he has a tendency to get blown up when his stuff flattens out. Otherwise, with three big league pitches, good control, and no major red flags, he profiles as a safe bet back-end type for Day Two.

10. RHP Cade Winquest, UT Arlington

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 4/30/2000. Hometown: Haslet, TX
2019-2020: 6-2, 5.28 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 61/35 K/BB in 59.2 IP.

The University of Texas at Arlington, sitting in the shadow of Globe Life Field and AT&T Stadium, has also sat in the shadow of better Sun Belt programs like Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, and South Alabama. Their crown jewels are John Lackey (1998), Hunter Pence (2003-2004), and Michael Choice (2008-2010), but no Maverick has gone in the top eight rounds since Zach Thompson in 2014. Cade Winquest may not match Thompson’s fifth round selection, but he’s trending in the right direction and could break out in 2021. He held his own as a freshman starter in 2019 (5.01 ERA, 49/24 K/BB) but never quite got going in 2020 (6.75 ERA, 12/11 K/BB). Only set to turn 21 at the end of April, he’s relatively young for a college junior.

To this point, Winquest has been a starter for the Mavs, and even in that role he’s shown flashes of big potential to go with inconsistency. In short stints, the Fort Worth-area native’s fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can touch the upper 90’s, playing up due to extension well beyond what you’d typically see from someone 6’2″. His high-spin curveball needs more consistency, but it flashes plus regularly and could eventually earn a true 60 grade. He recently added a slider and a splitter, which haven’t been seen much in game action. The command comes and goes, anywhere from fringe average to well below given the day. He walked a reasonable 10.9% as a freshman, but that jumped to 23.4% as a sophomore and 23.2% over the summer.

It’s unclear where Winquest’s future lies. On one hand, he looks like a reliever with two big pitches and very inconsistent command, and that likely tickets him to the bullpen. However, if he can clean up that command a little bit as a junior and show that even one of his two new pitches are for real, we could have a legitimate starting prospect on our hands. It’s still more exciting to picture the Texan in a big league bullpen at this point, where he could throw two legitimate 60-grade pitches (the fastball perhaps reaching 70) and worry less about pacing and command. There will be a lot of eyes in Arlington in 2021.

Other Interesting Low/Mid Major Options in the West

California

Three Californians just missed the list. Perhaps the closest was catcher Wyatt Hendrie, who transferred to San Diego State after a strong career at Antelope Valley CC. The Palmdale native is athletic for a catcher and runs well in addition to showing a strong arm, giving him a chance to continually improve behind the plate. His compact swing produces a lot of line drives and balls in the gaps, though to this point we haven’t seen much in the way of over the fence power. Hendrie controls the strike zone well and since he’ll be 22 in February, he could be a cheaper sign

At UC Riverside, Troy Percival‘s son Cole Percival has one of the better right arms on the West Coast. He sits in the low 90’s and touches 94-95 as a starter, getting nice sinking action on the fastball that proves difficult to pick up. Percival also adds an average slider and a fringy changeup. The 6’5″ righty throws strikes but his control is ahead of his command, and his fastball/slider combination would likely play up better in the bullpen. Percival was eligible in 2020 and will turn 22 in February.

Lastly, Michael McGreevy has been lights out for two years at UC Santa Barbara (7-1, 1.64 ERA, 79/20 K/BB), and since he won’t be 21 until July, he’s much younger than Hendrie and Percival. The Southern Californian sits around 90 with his sinker and adds a 12-6 curveball with good depth as well as a decent slider and changeup. Nothing pops out, but he throws strikes with all four pitches and his easy delivery portends well to a future in the rotation, while his projectable 6’4″ frame could help him get more consistently into the low 90’s.

Texas

A couple of Lone Star catchers stand out, including Dominic Hamel’s battery-mate Ryan Wrobleski. The Minneapolis-area native transferred in from Northern Iowa Area CC and has a lot to like. He’s a sound defender behind the plate who will stick, which makes his bat more attractive. Wrobleski generates above average raw power from a forceful right handed swing that can get long at times, and with seven home runs in the Northwoods League and three in fourteen games for Dallas Baptist, he has tapped it in games. Evaluators will want to see him tap that power over a full season in 2021 and keep the swing and miss down, especially on offspeed pitches.

Rice’s Justin Collins has a similar profile, though he’s already 22 and was eligible in 2020. The Houston native popped 13 home runs and slashed .262/.380/.403 over his first two seasons with the Owls, but slumped to .190/.352/.214 in 2020 and went undrafted. Collins has a bit of a noisy setup and can be streaky, showing a patient approach but swinging and missing a lot when he gets out of whack (42.6% K rate in 2020). His glove will require more work than Wrobleski’s, but he has the ability to stick with good coaching.

Elsewhere

Texoma area scouts are well acquainted with Adam Oviedo, who was a top five round prospect coming out of high school south of Fort Worth in 2017. Oviedo first played at TCU, where he rebounded from a rough freshman season (.228/.319/.257) to show well as a sophomore (.291/.379/.429). Transferring to Oral Roberts, he went undrafted in 2020 despite a hot start (.302/.353/.556) and will return for another year. He has a broad base of skills but no carrying tool, showing a simple, quick swing and a patient approach, but well below average power for most of his career until he hit five home runs in fifteen games in 2020. He’ll likely slide to second base in pro ball, so proving his 2020 home run barrage was at least somewhat for real rather than a fluke will be his key to becoming a big league role player.

Over at Arkansas-Little Rock, we have another undrafted returnee. Aaron Funk rebounded from an awful 2019 (11.45 ERA, 16/20 K/BB) to look lights out in 2020, putting up a 2.01 ERA and a 37/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings (including a 17 strikeout complete game against North Alabama). The Lawrence, Kansas native sits around 90 with his fastball, but it plays up due to the nice extension he gets from his 6’5″ frame. He also flashes an above average curveball with great depth. Funk’s delivery can get a bit rigid, so smoothing it out might help him peak into the low 90’s more often. He probably profiles better as a reliever, where his fastball could get another boost and his inconsistent command won’t be as much of an issue.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten players to watch this college season

The 2021 college baseball season is about to kick off, which means our draft rankings are about to get thrown for a loop. Every year, some top prospects underperform, while others come from nowhere into the spotlight. Meanwhile, some players come into the season with very straightforward profiles. We know Kumar Rocker and Ty Madden are going to shove, and we know Adrian Del Castillo and Matt McLain are going to hit. Game to game, of course scouts will have an eye on everything, but for the most part they know what to expect. They want to make sure Rocker fills up the strike zone consistently, maybe hoping for a few more swings and misses on his fastball, you know, the normal stuff. We're hoping McLain can draw a few more walks, but again, we're not expecting to see anything unexpected.

This list is for ten players who have a much wider range of plausible outcomes in 2021. Whether that's due to injuries, inconsistency, or something else, all eyes will be on these players' every move as scouts try to determine just what kind of prospects they are. Of course, I have a couple dozen I'd like to include here, so this is far from as exhaustive as I'd like to be. If you're a college baseball fan, here are ten players to keep an extra close eye on as the season gets underway.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
You had to know this one was coming. A top 100 prospect coming out of Ashdown High School outside Texarkana in 2018, Jaden Hill battled injuries in 2019 and the pandemic shut him down in 2020, so he has just 21.2 collegiate innings to his name. That said, those 21.2 innings were absolutely electric. The 6'4" righty showed up on campus with a big fastball/changeup combination, with the former now reaching the upper 90's and the latter looking like a plus pitch. He's since improved a devastating slider that flashes plus-plus at times, and he's been developing a shorter cutter to give hitters yet another look. On top of it all, he's shown the ability to harness and command his stuff despite its rapid improvement and his lack of consistent innings. Pitch for pitch, Hill has some of the most electric stuff in the class, but of course we know scouts would be much more confident if he showed he could hold it over a full season. 2021 will be his chance to do so, and if his stuff is as loud in July as it is in February, Hill could very well go first overall. He's that good.

OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
2019-2020: 9 HR, .301/.389/.470, 13 SB, 74/33 K/BB in 75 games.
Arkansas is known for its high powered offenses, producing big bats like Brian Anderson, Andrew Benintendi, Dominic Fletcher, Heston Kjerstad, and Casey Martin in recent years, with Benintendi and Kjerstad going in the top ten picks. As of now, Franklin fits more in the back of the first round or early second, but he absolutely has the ability to propel himself into the Benintendi/Kjerstad range. After holding his own as an SEC freshman in 2019 (6 HR, .274/.362/.419), he was off to a hot start in 2020 (3 HR, .381/.467/.619) and will look to build on that in 2021. Though he stands just 5'11", the Kansas City native has plus raw power from the right side that he can tap with explosive hands. He needs to add some loft to his swing, but Franklin already hits screaming line drives that regularly find holes and carry out over the fence anyways. He's also a plus runner who will stick in center field, adding to his upside. The biggest thing scouts want to see from the young outfielder will be plate discipline, as he can get over aggressive and swing through or chase quality stuff at times. That's the biggest thing holding him back right now, but even small improvement in that area likely lands him in the first round. Take a big step forward in that regard, and Franklin has the tools to challenge Jud Fabian, Adrian Del Castillo, Alex Binelas, and Matt McLain as the top hitter in the college class.

OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt
2019-2020: 7 HR, .300/.349/.590, 4 SB, 24/4 K/BB in 37 games.
I see numerous parallels between Christian Franklin and Isaiah Thomas, though the latter finds himself perhaps half a round behind his SEC counterpart at this point due to less of a track record. Currently more of a second rounder, Thomas, not to be confused with the NBA all star of the same name, could rocket into the first round with a strong spring. His explosive right handed bat can send baseballs traveling out of the park at high speeds, and that plus raw power has played in his small sample of games so far. The South Florida native also shows above average speed and a strong arm in center field, all a product of a wiry, athletic 6'2" frame. The main drawback in Thomas' game at this point is an extremely aggressive approach, one that has limited him to just four walks in 37 games but to this point has not impacted his production. If he can even show moderately improved patience in 2021, he has the chance to fly well into the first round with the strong performance he's capable of. Thomas has a chance to be a legitimate five tool player.

RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
2019-2020: 7-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB in 88 IP.
Ryan Cusick is one of my favorite arms in this class. A product of Avon Old Farms School in Connecticut that produced George Springer and Orioles 2020 second rounder Hudson Haskin (via Tulane), Cusick has been up and down during his time at Wake Forest. He was hittable as a freshman, then as a sophomore he struck out 41.7% of his opponents but also walked 17.5%, both extremely high numbers. His game is very inconsistent in all respects, but when he's on, he's on. At best, the 6'6" righty can touch 97-98 with his fastball and sit in the mid 90's for innings at a time, putting great ride on the ball that makes it nearly impossible to square up. He drops in a slider that flashes legitimate plus, as well as a developing changeup and curveball. However, the fastball velocity has been known to dip closer to 90 at times, while the slider regularly flattens out into a below average pitch. The Massachusetts native showed well below average command in the brief 2020 season, but it looked closer to average in a brilliant summer turn through the Coastal Plain League, so it's hard to know what to make of his strike throwing ability. For all of those reasons, scouts will be keeping a very close eye on each of Cusick's starts, watching how his velocity holds, how consistently he can snap off that slider, what his command looks like, and whether he can take a step forward with his changeup or curveball. There are many moving parts here, but if he can get the most out of his exceptional natural ability, we could be looking at a top ten pick later on. Or conversely, Cusick could push himself out of Day One contention entirely.

RHP Sam Bachman, Miami (OH)
2019-2020: 8-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 106/45 K/BB in 99.1 IP.
Here we get to one of this fall's fastest risers. Looking at his stat line above against a tame MAC schedule, Sam Bachman doesn't look special, but I assure you he is. The Indianapolis-area native previously worked with a low 90's fastball, but he's been bumping the mid 90's more often and reportedly hit triple digits in fall practice. That pitch plays up further because of his unique data, crouching down in his delivery and coming from a low three quarters angle to create an extremely low release point without actually having to go sidearm. From there, its high spin rates give it immense ride up in the zone, making it one of the best fastballs in the class. He also adds a short, cutter-like slider that plays above average and flashes plus, and his fading changeup gives him a third above average pitch. Bachman's command has been steadily improving from average to above average to even plus at times, maximizing his ability to tunnel his pitches off each other. His fall blew some evaluators away, so they'll want to see him maintain that uptick in stuff and command in the spring. If the stocky 6'1" righty can maintain even close to what showed, it's a legitimate first round projection.

RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State
2019-2020: 1-1, 3.70 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 43/22 K/BB in 31.2 IP.
Here's yet another really interesting one. Eric Cerantola is a huge, 6'5" Canadian right hander with some crazy data behind his stuff. On the surface, he does not look like a Day One prospect, with a scattered track record of 31.2 moderately successful innings. The Toronto-area native has a very slow, deliberate delivery with very inconsistent arm slots and command, giving the impression that he doesn't actually have much feel for his lanky limbs or delivery. However, this is one of the more talented right arms in the class. While working in the low 90's as a starter, Cerantola dialed his fastball up to 98 in fall practice and the pitch plays up with tough angle. He also adds a curveball that flashes true plus, a low to mid 80's hammer with ridiculously high spin rates, and that's the pitch that makes him so interesting. Add in what could be an above average changeup, and you have some of the best stuff in the class from a 6'5" righty. This spring, evaluators will be watching to see how he holds up under a full time starting role. That means both the stuff, including velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball, and command, the latter of which he has no track record of consistency with. If Cerantola can prove he can start, he suddenly becomes a first round candidate, though for now he fits better in the second.

OF Levi Usher, Louisville
2020: 2 HR, .411/.484/.571, 11 SB, 14/7 K/BB in 16 G.
Levi Usher comes to Louisville from Kirkwood CC in Iowa, where he obliterated opposing pitching to the tune of a .409/.493/.538 line in 53 games. He continued just the same for the Cardinals, where he hit .411/.484/.571 in 16 games. However, two uninspiring runs through the Northwoods League in 2019 and 2020 (combined .261/.337/.373) temper excitement just a little, leaving evaluators ready to watch his 2021 at bats very closely. Usher has a broad base of above average tools, showing nice pure hitting ability, speed, and power. The hitting ability and speed (47 SB between Kirkwood and Louisville) have played up exceptionally well against weaker opponents, and there is enough strength packed into his 6' frame to project at least average power. To this point, he has shown an aggressive approach that limits his walks and causes some minor swing and miss concerns, so tightening that up will help scouts feel more comfortable his approach will hold up in pro ball. Additionally, the so-so performance in the Northwoods League raises slight concerns about how his power will play with wood bats, but unlike the approach questions, there's not much he can do about that one with metal bats at Louisville aside from just hit for more power. With his lack of track record at the Division I level and especially his lack of track record in conference play, Usher's 2021 could go a lot of different ways. Sort of like Kameron Misner a couple years ago, though Misner ended up slumping through SEC play.

RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia
2020: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 12/2 K/BB in 11.1 IP.
Georgia pitching is on a strong draft run over the last three years. In 2019, it was Tony Locey (third round) and Tim Elliott (fourth round), and in 2020, it was Emerson Hancock (first round) and Cole Wilcox (third round). In 2021, Georgia could have two more, with Ryan Webb and draft-eligible sophomore Jonathan Cannon. Cannon worked in long relief on that deep Georgia pitching staff last year, and looked brilliant in five appearances. He's a lanky, 6'6" right hander with some of the louder stuff in the SEC, touching 96-97 with his fastball and adding an above average slider and a potentially plus changeup. Additionally, he flashes solid-average command, which is pretty impressive for a young lanky pitcher. The Atlanta-area native has all of the ingredients necessary to be an impact starting pitcher, but he has to put it together consistently in 2021 in order to go in the first round. It's one thing to flash three above average pitches and average command in 11.2 innings of long relief, but it's another to hold that over 5-6 innings a start for a full season. If he does, we have a first rounder. He won't turn 21 until after the draft, making him one of the younger college arms available, yet he's already looked fairly advanced in his small sample.

LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati
2019-2020: 5-8, 5.66 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 104/57 K/BB in 84.1 IP.
For the most part, Kansas State's Jordan Wicks is regarded as the best college lefthander in the class, with Michigan's Steven Hajjar, Mississippi State's Christian MacLeod, and Texas' Pete Hansen making up the group right behind him. However, those who value pitch data would through another name into that ring, Cincinnati's Evan Shawver. The Cleveland-area native was not a big name recruit and struggled as a freshman (7.15 ERA, 69/48 K/BB), but he's quietly built up his draft stock in the time since then and put up a 1.59 ERA and a 35/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings in 2020, including five hitless innings against Florida State. Shawver is an undersized lefty at a listed 6', 175 pounds, so he makes up for his lack of size in other ways. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he can reach back for 95-97 and the spin rates on the pitch make it play up. He also drops in a potentially plus slider with late movement and an above average changeup, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. Shawver has refined his command considerably since making it to campus, now comfortably average, something that will be very important as his size brings relief questions. If the little lefty can hold his command and stuff over a full season in 2021, he has a chance to shed those relief questions and move into the first round range.

OF John Rhodes, Kentucky
2020: 1 HR, .426/.485/.672, 1 SB, 5/2 K/BB in 17 games.
Out of everyone on this list, John Rhodes is probably the one we know the least about. With pitchers, we can still watch them pitch in small samples and see their stuff, but hitting is reactive, and Rhodes hasn't put up a big enough sample for evaluators to get a strong feel for his ability. That's why his 2021 will be watched so closely. The Chattanooga native arrived on campus without a ton of fanfare, but ripped .426/.485/.672 with twelve extra base hits and just five strikeouts in seventeen games before the shutdown in 2020. He kept hitting in the Northwoods League over the summer (.378/.495/.500 in 27 games), and with an August birthday, he's one of the youngest draft-eligible sophomores in the class. Rhodes isn't huge at a listed 6', 200 pounds, but he finds the barrel extremely easily from the right side with a disciplined approach that will always enable him to post high on-base percentages. So far, his power has played mostly to the gaps and it's not clear how much over-the-fence pop he'll develop, but he could provide some clarity on that in 2021. The development of his power, as well as whether his exceptional on-base ability holds up against that gauntlet of SEC pitching, will determine whether Rhodes can crack the top fifty picks this summer.

Others

LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan): 6'5" lefty that has flashed plus stuff, but has limited track record after an ACL injury wiped out his true freshman season. Huge ceiling if he performs up to his potential.

C Luca Tresh (North Carolina State): Power hitting catcher trending up after a huge fall, will take over for 2020 first rounder Patrick Bailey behind the plate in Raleigh. Scouts want to see him make enough contact to tap his big power as well as continued progress in his glove.

OF Robby Martin (Florida State): Outfielder that has gotten bigger at FSU, growing into power but still has a line drive/opposite field approach. He's not quite as advanced as JJ Bleday was entering his junior season two years ago, but Martin really reminds me of Bleday at that time, before the big power breakout.

RHP Tommy Mace (Florida): Senior college starter who was arguably the best undrafted college player last year, betting on himself for another go around. Reportedly has seen the uptick in stuff scouts had been waiting for since his high school days, needs to prove it over a full season to maintain prospect status.

RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina): Another top undrafted arm, huge 6'6", 240 pound right hander with a fastball that can creep into triple digits. Also shows a big curve and advanced changeup, but has battled injuries at ECU and never put together a full season.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #11

The Nationals will pick eleventh overall in this year's draft, the highest they've picked since selecting Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011. Rendon was the fourth in an extremely successful run of first round picks, including Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th overall, 2009), and Bryce Harper (1st overall, 2010). Since Rendon, the Nationals have not had overwhelming success in the first round, with perhaps Erick Fedde (18th overall, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th overall, 2016) being the only ones to make any kind of impact on the big league club so far. Lucas Giolito (16th overall, 2012) has become a star, but with the White Sox.

Recent first round picks:
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)
2016: SS Carter Kieboom, Walton HS, GA (28th overall)

There's a clear trend with the Nationals, a more traditional organization that likes big college pitchers and isn't afraid of a little injury history. Cavalli, Denaburg, Fedde, Giolito, and Rendon all had significant injury history when the Nationals drafted then, and Romero was healthy but saw his stock drop due to serious off-field makeup concerns. To this point, Kieboom has been a moderate success, and the jury is still out on Romero, Rutledge, and Cavalli. Meanwhile, Denaburg has been limited to just 20.1 innings with a 7.52 ERA in complex ball, and while at 21 years old he still has a chance to reclaim his prospect status, that one may end up being a bust. Now, a lot will definitely change between February and July, but heading into the spring season, here are ten names for Nationals fans to track.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
This one fits the Nationals' drafting style to a tee. First, we can look at the relatively meaningless geographic parallels, as the Houston-area native follows Houston picks Rendon, Romero, and Rutledge, and would also give the Nationals a second consecutive Big 12 arm after Cavalli. More importantly, Ty Madden is a very traditional 6'3" college righty except for a bit of a funky arm action, something I'd suspect only further endears him to an organization not afraid of injuries. Madden sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 96-97 in games and topping out around 99 in bullpen sessions, putting fairly unique downward angle and run on the ball that makes it difficult to lift. He adds a relatively inconsistent slider that is usually at least average but can flash true plus, and his changeup has been a more stable offering for him that plays consistently above average and flashes plus as well. His command has come along nicely, walking just four of 97 batters in 2020 (a 4.1% rate, down from 13% in 2019), though the Nationals' brass will want to see him hold that command over a full season. If things break right for him and he stays healthy (or perhaps even if he doesn't), I'm sure the Nationals will take a very hard look at the potential #2 starter.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP.
Richard Fitts has a little bit more to prove than Madden, having pitched mostly out of the bullpen so far at Auburn, but he has a chance to don the Curly W as well. Another big, 6'3" righty, Fitts impressed evaluators at fall practice in 2020 and pushed his way from a second or third round projection to a legitimate first round contender. In the fall, he worked in a starting role where his fastball began consistently hitting the mid 90's, playing up due to the tough crossfire angle he puts on the ball. The Birmingham-area native adds a downer slider and an above average splitter, and he lands all three pitches for strikes consistently. He looked the part of a future mid-rotation starter in the fall, and if he can hold that profile in the spring, a traditional organization like the Nationals could pounce very early. Watch to see if his velocity and command hold.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.
Like Fitts, Steven Hajjar has a lot to prove in 2021, but he has the chance to establish himself as a prototypical college lefty ace. Currently on the fringes of the first round conversation, Hajjar has thrown just twenty innings in his college career due to a 2019 ACL tear and the 2020 shutdown. 6'5" left handed pitchers will grab the attention of scouts traditional and progressive alike, and that's why teams love his upside. His fastball sits in the low 90's when he's on, while his slider and changeup both flash plus as well. However, we're yet to see any kind of proven consistency, especially considering the Massachusetts native's stuff was down a bit in the fall, his fastball occasionally dipping into the upper 80's and his secondary pitches flattening out. Given that, the fact that he's very young for the class (won't turn 21 until August) really helps his case, and scouts believe that his youth only adds to his upside. If Hajjar comes out this spring holding more consistent fastball velocity and taking a step forward with his command, which is presently below average, he could fly off the board. From there, it would be easy to project plus stuff and an impact starter ceiling on him.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
Jaden Hill, like Hajjar, has barely been on the mound in NCAA play, but that's about where the similarities start and end. While Hajjar is from the Boston suburbs, Hill hails from Ashdown, a small Arkansas town near Texarkana. And while Hajjar might fit more in the early second round if the draft were today, Hill is already firmly in the top ten discussion. The big, 6'4" righty is a former high school quarterback armed with a fastball that has touched the upper 90's in short stints, and his secondary pitches are well ahead of Hajjar's as well. The slider flashes double plus at its best, rendering hitters completely helpless as it dives all the way across the plate, and his changeup has long been a weapon in its own right since his high school days. He recently added a cutter as well, giving him a four pitch arsenal that makes him one of the toughest at bats in college baseball. On top of it all, he's actually proven to be a solid strike thrower, something that usually isn't the case with that kind of elite stuff. Of course, the injury issues are the biggest concern here, as elbow soreness and collarbone surgery (stemming from a high school football injury) kept him off the mound for much of 2019 and the shutdown stopped him in 2020. For that reason, he has not been able to prove his stuff or command can hold over a full season, and it gives him a wide range of outcomes. If Hill comes out and stays healthy for a full season, with his stuff looking as sharp in June as it did in February, there is no chance he makes it to the Nationals at pick #11 – he could legitimately be gone in the first five picks in that case. If his stuff dips early in the season and doesn't come back, then the Nationals might pass on him. But if the stuff stays sharp and he deals with continued nagging injuries, he could perfectly fit the Nationals' draft strategy of targeting high upside starting pitchers with injury concerns. In fact, it really wouldn't be too dissimilar a pick to Cavalli last year.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
As far as traditional bats go, Matt McLain is right at the top of the list. A first round pick out of a Los Angeles-area high school in 2018, McLain didn't sign with the Diamondbacks and instead headed to UCLA, where he struggled to a .203/.276/.355 line as a freshman. However, his stock has since recovered and more, with a hot start to the 2020 season (.397/.422/.621) and an even hotter run through summer ball (.436/.536/.773). McLain is a bit undersized at 5'11", but has exceptional feel for the barrel that enables him to spray line drives around the field and could end up giving him 15-20 home run power in time. Though he makes very easy contact most of the time, he can expand the zone against breaking balls and that leads to some minor strikeout concerns. Unless he makes a dramatic shift in his aggressive approach, McLain will likely never draw a ton of walks, but he should hit for a high enough batting average to put up strong on-base percentages. A premium athlete, his plus speed helps him on both sides of the ball and should keep him at shortstop in the long run. Improved plate discipline in 2021 could have him off the board before the Nationals have a chance to make a selection, but his present profile fits right into the Nationals' drafting philosophy.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.
If the Nationals decide to go with a college bat, Alex Binelas makes just as much sense as Matt McLain. While he wasn't nearly as famous as McLain at Oak Creek High School in the Milwaukee suburbs, his massive freshman season (14 HR, .291/.383/.612) rocketed him into the national spotlight, but a hand injury in the second game of his sophomore season means that freshman season is all we have to go off of. Binelas brings a lightning quick left handed swing that produces plus raw and game power, sending balls over the fence or to the gaps with consistent triple digit exit velocities. Despite its explosiveness, that swing can get choppy at times, leading to some swing and miss (19.8% K rate as a freshman). It's not a major concern at this point considering he was a freshman in the ACC, but it's something he'll have to cut down on in his junior year, especially in conference play. If he does, he might already be off the board before the Nationals pick at #11, but positional questions could work in Washington's favor if they cause him to slip a little. A third baseman at Louisville, his cannon arm gives him a chance to stick over there, but he's a somewhat choppy defender and might be stretched in the shifting era. The upside in his bat is so great that teams in the top ten picks might be willing to risk a move to first base, but continued swing and miss questions could keep him around for the Nats.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
Another traditional bat for the Nationals to consider is Colton Cowser, who was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs (in addition to top 2019 picks JJ Goss and Matthew Thompson). Cowser might have been the fourth best prospect on that team when he graduated, but he had a massive freshman season (.361/.450/.602) and landed on the US Collegiate National Team. Despite an unspectacular sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), he remains one of the top bats in the college class with premium leadoff potential. Cowser is a true plus hitter, showing a combination of excellent knowledge of the strike zone with excellent bat to ball skills, which he proved with the US CNT. For now, his swing is geared more for line drives than fly balls, but evaluators see his athletic 6'3" frame and think that he could grow into average power, perhaps more if he starts trying to lift the ball. With plus speed and the ability to stick in center field, he may not need to do so in order to become an impact player at the big league level. If Cowser hits in 2021 like he did in 2019, he could fit right in with the Nationals at pick #11.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
We've hammered home the point that the Nationals are traditional and love pitching, and Andrew Painter fits that to a tee. The Fort Lauderdale native has an extremely projectable 6'6" frame with a full, well rounded arsenal that he can command. Painter's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 95-96 without much effort, but promising more as he fills out his frame. He spins a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, both of which are consistently at least average while flashing above average regularly. With an above average changeup as well, Painter can attack you in a variety of ways. His extremely easy delivery enables him to hit spots as well as anyone in the high school class, and it also raises his floor considerably. Many scouts have likened him to Mick Abel, the first high school pitcher taken in 2020, who lasted until the Phillies at pick #15. It would probably take Painter stepping forward with one of his breaking balls to get the Nationals to bite on him over a guy like Madden or McLain, but if he does, he has as good a chance to land in Washington as anywhere else. The one thing that might hold the Nationals back is Mason Denaburg, their most recent first round high school pitcher, who has struggled to stay healthy since going 27th overall in 2018. Painter won't come cheap, either, holding a commitment to Florida.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]
Right now, Painter is the top high school pitcher in the country, but a lot can change before July. Jackson Jobe was known as more of a hitter a year ago, but a loud summer rocketed him into the first round as a right handed pitcher. The 6'2" convert to pitching already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95-96 just like Painter, but his secondary pitches are ahead of his counterpart. His slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, coming in with immense spin rates and tight, late bite. His curveball and changeup both flash above average as well, and he's an athletic kid that fills up the strike zone. Given that he's still new to pitching, Jobe could continue to rise with a strong spring and more consistency, with the potential to become a legitimate big league starting pitcher. If he does, the Nationals could bite as early as pick #11, though one drawback is age, with the Oklahoma City native set to turn 19 in July. Committed to Ole Miss, he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore, which could raise his asking price further.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]
We'll round it out with the most famous name in the prep class, shortstop Brady House. Scouts have been excitedly waiting for the Georgian to become draft eligible, as he brings a long track record of hitting against premium pitching. However, House's 2020 summer was just a bit more inconsistent than some scouts had hoped for, and a combination of that and prospect fatigue have allowed Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, and perhaps even James Wood to overtake him in the prep bat rankings. Still, House brings a lot to the table. He shows easy plus raw power from the right side, power which he tapped consistently in games going back to when he was an underclassman. At times in 2020, his swing got out of whack as he tried to show off his pop and it came at the expense of his hit tool. The pure hitting ability is there if House trusts himself, and if he proves his summer was just a little blip, he might be gone before the Nationals pick. House is also a solid athlete with a chance to stick at shortstop with some hard work, but most scouts see him sliding over to third base and focusing on his big bat. Additionally, with a June birthday, he's relatively young for the class. Hailing from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, House has a commitment to Tennessee in hand, so if he slips too far past the Nationals with an uneven senior season, he could pull a Dylan Crews and head to school.

A few other possibilities
RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
RHP Mason Black, Lehigh
OF Jud Fabian, Florida
SS Khalil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC]
OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]