Recent first rounders Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott lead the way on offense, but this system stands out most for its starting pitching depth. Breakouts from Spencer Howard, Damon Jones, and Kyle Glogoski helped them join guys like Cole Irvin, JoJo Romero, Adonis Medina, and David Parkinson as guys who could compete for rotation spots in the near future, and nice steps forward from Francisco Morales and Erik Miller down near the bottom of the system were really nice to see. There's not a ton of ceiling anywhere in this system except for perhaps in Bohm and Morales, but the sheer depth of viable starting pitchers here is enough to say the system is in a fairly decent spot.
Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, short season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies
Catcher
- Deivy Grullon (2020 Age: 24): Grullon has gradually added power throughout his time in the minors, and he really broke out in that sense once he got to the top two levels of the Phillies' system, which are naturally hitter-friendly. This year, he slashed .283/.354/.496 with 21 home runs and a 133/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at AAA Lehigh Valley, then he doubled for his lone hit in nine major league at bats. Grullon generates his power more from strength than from bat speed, though he also tends to swing over the ball and put more balls on the ground than he should. He's not the smoothest catcher behind the plate, but he does have a cannon for an arm that levels out his defensive value. Overall, he probably projects for about 15 home runs per season with mediocre on-base percentages, which puts him in line for a long-term role as a backup catcher.
- Rafael Marchan (2020 Age: 21): Marchan is probably the most balanced catching prospect in the system, and in my opinion, he's probably the best. In 2019, the switch hitter slashed .261/.333/.325 with no home runs and a 39/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at Class A Lakewood and High A Clearwater, and while he's yet to hit a home run in his 210 career pro games, he did set a career high with 20 doubles in 2019 and he's spent most of his career in pitcher-friendly contexts. Marchan is only 5'9", but he has a clean swing from both sides of the plate and a great eye for the strike zone, making easy contact and rarely striking out. That helps him behind the plate, too, where he should be above average all-around. Whether Marchan can ever break through as a starter will depend on his power, as he currently hasn't shown much in games and has instead settled for line drives, but he does have the potential to pop 5-10 annually. I think he probably ends up a backup long term, but I do like him.
- Rodolfo Duran (2020 Age: 22): Overall, Duran has a fairly similar profile to Grullon. Duran spent 2019 at High A Clearwater, where he slashed a fairly disappointing .240/.273/.369 with six home runs and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, though Clearwater is fairly pitcher-friendly. He generates good power despite his 5'9" frame, getting the barrel to the ball quickly with his quick wrists and powerful swing. He's very aggressive at the plate usually puts the ball in play, leading to a very low walk rate, and overall I think Grullon has the better long-term outlook. Duran will probably always post low on-base percentages but he has a shot to hit for some power, and his defensive profile is fairly similar to Grullon's as well, perhaps a hair better.
- Juan Aparicio (2020 Age: 19-20): This one might sneak up on a few people, but he's a sleeper to watch. In 2019, he slashed .303/.364/.457 with two home runs and a 41/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at short season Williamsport and Class A Lakewood, showing great feel for the barrel at a young age that should play up as he moves through the minors. He's very much a work in progress defensively, so he's far, far from a sure thing, but if he does shore up his play behind the plate, his bat profiles well back there and he's got some upside. He doesn't turn 20 until May.
- Keep an eye on: Abrahan Gutierrez, Andrick Nava, Freddy Francisco
Corner Infield
- Alec Bohm (2020 Age: 23-24): Bohm was the Phillies' first round (third overall) pick out of Wichita State in 2019, and his successful first full season (as well as Sixto Sanchez's trade to the Marlins) cemented his status as the top prospect in the system. The Phillies started Bohm off conservatively at Class A Lakewood, but he ended up hitting his way up three levels and finished with a .305/.378/.518 slash line, 21 home runs, and a 73/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's got raw power in his 6'5" frame, but perhaps more impressive this year was his plate discipline, as he rarely struck out while drawing a healthy amount of walks, even after he got up to AA a year out of college. A 73/57 strikeout to walk ratio is not common for 6'5" power hitters, and his track record since his college days proves that it's absolutely not a fluke. The one nit-picky ding on Bohm's season may have been his power, as he only hit seven home runs in 62 games in A ball, though he also hit 19 doubles and those were pitcher-friendly contexts. 14 of his 21 home runs came in 63 games in Reading, his highest level, though that in turn was a very hitter-friendly context. Overall, he projects for 25-30 home runs per season and high on-base percentages, making him a true middle of the order hitter. The Phillies are hoping to keep him at third base, where he's adequate, but there's a non-zero chance that he shifts over to first base, where his bat will still easily profile.
- Darick Hall (2020 Age: 24-25): Behind Bohm, the Phillies have a few fringy prospects, but really nothing too too special going on. That enables Darick Hall, a 14th round pick out of Dallas Baptist in 2016, to stand out with his power. In 2019, he slashed .235/.344/.454 with 20 home runs and a 134/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games, and while he does have a track record for hitting for power (he has 75 home runs over the last three seasons), most of that power in 2019 showed up at his hitter-friendly home park. Hall has a lot of power in his 6'4" frame, though while he does have that track record of getting to it, you have to question whether that will still be the case in the majors. His patient approach leads to plenty of walks but also a good amount of swing and miss, and as a first baseman, he'll have to hit. He hits lefties pretty well despite being a left handed hitter, so he has that going for him, and he projects as a power hitting bench bat.
- Keep an eye on: Austin Listi, Madison Stokes, Cole Stobbe
Middle Infield
- Nick Maton (2020 Age: 23): Maton has utility infielder written all over him, but he does have the upside to be a starting second baseman. In 2019, he slashed .266/.349/.376 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 85/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Clearwater and AA Reading. He doesn't have any loud tools that stand out, but he also doesn't really do anything wrong on the field, using his advanced approach, quick, left handed swing, and wiry strength to produce some surprisingly decent power and high on-base percentages. He probably doesn't have quite enough bat to start in the majors, and he'll profile well as a utility guy who does a bit of everything, but I get a good feeling here and he could easily outplay his projections.
- Bryson Stott (2020 Age: 22): Stott, the Phillies' first round pick out of UNLV in 2019, hit the ground running in pro ball and looks like he'll move quickly. In his pro debut, he slashed .295/.391/.494 with six home runs and a 39/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Williamsport, showing off the broad array of skills that got him drafted 14th overall. He's added power throughout his time in college as he's filled out his 6'3" frame and started to focus more on driving rather than just hitting the ball, and it's turned him into a dangerous hitter given his exceptional hand eye coordination and feel for the barrel. He draws plenty of walks while avoiding strikeouts well, even after shifting his approach to hit for more power, and at this point he projects for about 15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases here and there. The fact that Alec Bohm has third base locked up bodes well for his ability to stick at shortstop, as he's solid but unspectacular there, though second base is also a future possibility. He has the bat to profile anywhere on the field and he has the ceiling of a true leadoff man.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 19): He's one of five relevant Luis Garcia's in professional baseball, including one who pitched out of the Phillies bullpen in 2018, so it's hard to keep them all straight. This Luis Garcia signed out of the Dominican Republic for $2.5 million in 2017, then slashed .369/.433/.488 in a fantastic pro debut in the complex level Gulf Coast League as a 17 year old in 2018. The Phillies completely skipped him over short season ball and sent him straight to Class A Lakewood as an 18 year old, where his approach was exposed a bit and he slashed .186/.261/.255 with four home runs and a 132/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games. Garcia's strong feel for the game enabled the Phillies to be aggressive with him, though now they may need to dial that back a bit. A switch hitter, his bat from the right side (.232/.317/.272) might be a bit ahead of his bat from the left side (.170/.240/.249), but he still shows a clean, simple stroke from both sides and his strong approach helps him put the ball in play regularly. I wouldn't be too worried about the tough season just yet, and a little more patience could see him develop into a contact-hitting utility man or starting shortstop with some speed to boot. He's very good defensively, and if he hits enough, it will likely be him who pushes Stott off of shortstop, not the other way around.
- Jamari Baylor (2020 Age: 19): The Phillies didn't have a second round pick in 2019, so they went for upside in the third round and signed Baylor out of a Richmond-area military high school. He played just four games in his pro debut and slashed .273/.333/.455 with a pair of strikeouts and a walk. Baylor has more talent than track record at this point, showing power, speed, and solid contact ability that could make him a well-rounded player. He's got some nice loft in his swing and does a good job of putting the ball in play, though he hasn't quite tapped his raw power too much yet and will need time to develop it. It's also not exactly known where he'll fit in on the diamond, as he's a shortstop for now but he has to play his way past Stott and Garcia if he wants to start there. For now, just think of him as an athletic kid who could develop in any number of directions, albeit with some bust risk.
- Keep an eye on: Arquimedes Gamboa, Daniel Brito, Kendall Simmons, Wilfredo Flores
Outfield
- Mickey Moniak (2020 Age: 21-22): I don't have to tell Phillies fans that Moniak has been one of the bigger disappointments in recent memory. Drafted first overall out of a San Diego-area high school in 2016, he's moved through the minors one level at a time and in 2019, he slashed .252/.303/.439 with eleven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 111/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AA Reading. Those numbers are actually the best of his career, and it was nice to see that seven of his eleven home runs came on the road away from his hitter-friendly home park. Moniak is a great athlete with great feel for the game, and that's what got him drafted first overall, though in pro ball he hasn't hit for nearly as much impact as hoped. He's got a solid approach at the plate, especially for a kid who won't turn 22 until May, and he's good at spraying balls into the gaps (his 13 triples actually tied for second in the minors this year). It's hard to see him turning into the star the Phillies envisioned when drafting him, but he still shows just enough on both sides of the ball to potentially profile as a 10-15 home run guy with solid on-base percentages, some speed, and solid outfield defense.
- Jhailyn Ortiz (2020 Age: 21): Ortiz was a big time prospect when he signed out of the Dominican Republic for $4.2 million in 2015, more money than fellow Dominicans Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got the very same week. Ortiz hasn't quite developed as quickly, and in 2019 he slashed .200/.272/.381 with 19 home runs and a 149/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at High A Clearwater. There's no question about his raw power being among the best in the system, perhaps even better than Alec Bohm's when he gets into one. However, Ortiz's approach at the plate leaves some to be desired, and there are enough holes in his right handed swing that he hasn't been able to get to his power consistently. The good news is that Ortiz was playing the entire season in High A at 20 years old, and he still has time to figure himself out. Ortiz's ceiling is still that of a 30 homer bat with fluctuating on-base percentages, but he's more likely to end up a fringe starter with 15-20 home runs annually and low on-base percentages.
- Simon Muzziotti (2020 Age: 21): Muzziotti has been kind of a sleeper in this organization for a while, but he finally began to break out in 2019 by slashing .287/.337/.372 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 60/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Clearwater. He's skinny and won't ever be mistaken for a power hitter, but he's very athletic and his great hand eye coordination and barrel control give him a combination of both low strikeout rates and gap power. He's one I expect to get better as he moves up through the minors and begins to fill out his 6'1" frame, and while the current projection is that of a contact-hitting fourth outfielder, he has a chance to be more.
- Matt Vierling (2020 Age: 23): A fifth rounder out of Notre Dame in 2018, Vierling had a highly successful pro debut where he slashed .321/.365/.496 between short season Williamsport and Class A Lakewood, and extremely impressive showing considering the majority of his games came at the higher level. He wasn't quite able to build off that in 2019, slashing .232/.297/.329 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 94/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games in that talented High A Clearwater outfield, though many hitting prospects have had a tough time in the Florida State League. He doesn't stand out for any of his physical tools (besides his cannon arm), instead doing a little bit of everything well and using his advanced feel for the game to produce. He has a short, simple right handed swing that produces a lot of line drives and fly balls, the latter of which went to die in the cavernous Florida State League ballparks, and he avoids strikeouts well while using his above average speed to steal bases efficiently. Defensively, he has solid range and that great arm, and if he can get his bat back and humming, he has a good shot at being a valuable fourth outfielder.
- Keep an eye on: Cornelius Randolph, Grenny Cumana, Josh Stephen, Carlos De La Cruz, Johan Rojas
Starting Pitching
- Cole Irvin (2020 Age: 26): Irvin is just barely a prospect, but he still technically qualifies and he'll get a writeup here. After a strong 2018 season in AAA (2.57 ERA, 131/35 K/BB), the Phillies sent him back to the minors again in 2019 where he had a 3.94 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 65/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley – he also had a 5.83 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 major league innings. A fifth round pick out of Oregon in 2016, his stuff is average across the board, but he stands out most for his ability to control the strike zone and put himself in advantage counts. A low 90's fastball and a set of solid-average secondaries means he can fall victim to the long ball occasionally, as he allowed 20 in 2019, so the fact that he is good at avoiding mistakes is critical. Irvin is also extremely durable, as he's topped 135 innings in four consecutive seasons going back to college, which will play to his advantage in trying to crack a Phillies rotation with some question marks at the bottom. There are a lot of guys competing for those last couple of spots that have higher ceilings, so Irvin is most likely destined for a swing role, but should they falter or get hurt, he'll be right there to grab that fifth spot.
- Spencer Howard (2020 Age: 23-24): Howard, a second rounder out of Cal Poly in 2017, has been on an upward trajectory for a while now. He struggled out of the gate in 2018, but turned it around and finished strong, throwing a complete game no-hitter in the South Atlantic League playoffs. This year, he posted a 2.03 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 94/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 innings between High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and a few innings of complex level rehab work despite missing time with shoulder soreness. There's no one adjustment that helped Howard break out this year; he got better all around. He now sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and sharpened his secondary stuff, with his slider becoming a real weapon and his curveball and changeup coming along. Additionally, he's gotten more consistent with his command, which rather than working against him, now works in his favor as he attacks the zone with more confidence. Shoulder problems are always scary, but it looks like he's put them behind him. If he can stay healthy, Howard is on the kind of trajectory that could land him in the middle of the Phillies rotation at some point in 2021 or perhaps even in late 2020.
- JoJo Romero (2020 Age: 23): Romero had three strong seasons to start his pro career after going in the fourth round out of an Arizona junior college in 2016, but he hit his first speed bump in 2019. This year, he had a 5.82 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 92/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings at AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley, as he handled Reading (4.84 ERA, 52/12 K/BB) but struggled at the higher level (6.88 ERA, 40/35 K/BB). He's solid but fairly inconsistent with both his stuff and his command, and it was a slight regression in the command that hurt him at AAA. He typically sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which he can run and sink effectively, and he adds a full array of secondary pitches that he gets good deception on. He sometimes loses his release point, which can affect both the stuff and command, but he's still fairly young as far as upper minors prospects go and he has time to refine that. Doing so will be the key to success in the majors, as he may profile better as a left handed reliever if he's going to be inconsistent. He'll also have to battle Irvin, Howard, Enyel De Los Santos, Damon Jones, and active major leaguers like Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta if he wants to crack the rotation in 2020.
- Adonis Medina (2020 Age: 23): The Phillies have brought Medina along at exactly a one level per year pace, though 2019 was a bit tough as he reached AA. He posted a 4.94 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and an 82/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.2 innings for Reading, the hitter-friendly environment perhaps getting to him as he allowed eight of his eleven home runs at home. Medina's stuff is just about MLB-caliber; he sits in the low to mid 90's with his running fastball, gets nice, two plane break on his curveball, and gets nice fade on his changeup. He also doesn't hurt himself with walks too often. His problem, especially in AA, has been that he's not missing bats at the rate his stuff dictates he should, especially against left handed batters. While he doesn't walk a lot of guys, he needs to work on hitting his spots better and avoiding left handed barrels, and in order to start at the major league level, sharpening one of his secondary pitches into a true plus pitch will probably be necessary. For now he projects as a #4 starter with the chance to be a #3.
- Damon Jones (2020 Age: 25): Jones went in the 18th round out of Washington State in 2017, but he caught some eyes by pitching well in Class A in 2018 (3.41 ERA, 123/50 K/BB) before breaking out in 2019. This year, he had a 2.91 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 152/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and AAA Lehigh Valley, though he actually had a 1.34 ERA and a 119/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings before his promotion to AAA (6.62 ERA, 33/26 K/BB). The 6'5" lefty now sits in the low 90's with his fastball, and he's added power to his curveball that now makes it an out pitch. Additionally, he did a much better job of attacking hitters with strikes, at least at the lower levels, though his command fell apart and his lack of a real changeup exposed him in AAA. Jones has more work to do in those regards, and he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter if he can take even a small step forward there, and his fastball/curveball combination would play up well out of the bullpen.
- David Parkinson (2020 Age: 24): After drafting Parkinson in the 12th round out of Ole Miss in 2017, the Phillies tried to take it slow with the 6'2" lefty, but he dominated in A ball in 2018 (1.45 ERA, 141/35 K/BB) and forced a promotion to AA to start 2019. He spent the year there and posted a 4.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 118/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings for Reading, which was especially nice to see after he had spent all of 2018 pitching in pitcher-friendly environments. Additionally, not included in those stats are seven shutout innings in the Eastern League playoffs, which would bring his ERA down to 3.86. He pitches with largely average stuff, sitting just above 90 with his fastball and adding a nice curveball and an improved changeup, but his command has been better than expected in pro ball and that's enabled it to continue to play up at every level he's pitched at. Parkinson still has a limited ceiling as that of a #4 or #5 starter, but it's looking more and more likely that he'll get there.
- Connor Seabold (2020 Age: 24): Seabold got all the way up to AA in 2018, his first full season after being drafted in the third round out of Cal State Fullerton in 2017, though injuries kept him off the mound until the end of June in 2019. Once he returned, he looked as good as ever, putting up a 2.24 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 58/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings between complex level rehab, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and like Parkinson, adds a curveball and an improving changeup, though his command has been his bread and butter as he has gotten better at hitting his spots rather than just filling up the strike zone. Those 40 great innings at AA now have him in position to fight for a back-end rotation spot in the near future, but the Phillies also have so many arms near the top of the minors that it might be tough.
- Kyle Glogoski (2020 Age: 21): Here's a kid that came out of absolutely nowhere. Glogoski grew up in Auckland, New Zealand, where baseball isn't all that popular, to put it lightly. However, after discovering the game at the age of 12 (you can read a really good article on that here), he's taken off, and he signed with the Phillies in 2018, two days after his 19th birthday. After a strong showing in the complex-level Gulf Coast League in 2018 (2.31 ERA, 47/11 K/BB), he put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2019, posting a 1.68 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings at Class A Lakewood and High A Clearwater. The 6'2" righty sits around 90 with his fastball, adding a curveball with big drop and a nice changeup, but his stuff plays up both due to his command and his ability to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance (especially the latter). He'll be just 21 years old for all of 2020 with the chance to tackle the upper minors, and if he can refine his command a bit further, he could be a #3 or a #4 starter. Even at present, he's well on his way to being a #5.
- Francisco Morales (2020 Age: 20): Coming into the season, Morales was a young arm with emerging stuff that hadn't quite put it together. Now, after a strong full season debut, he's well on his way leading the next wave of arms in this system. In 2019, he had a 3.82 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 129/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings at Class A Lakewood, nice numbers when you consider he was 19 for the whole season. He now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and his secondary stuff is beginning to come along, with both a slider and a changeup that are improved from a year ago. He's still very much a work in progress, as his command leaves some to be desired, but that too is improving and he's probably right where the Phillies want him to be in his development. The 6'4" righty is on the right trajectory, will be just 20 for all of 2020, and has breakout potential.
- Erik Miller (2020 Age: 22): Miller has always been a bit of an enigma, and he still is. A top prospect coming out of a St. Louis high school in 2016, he instead attended Stanford and rode an up and down career to a fourth round selection in 2019. His pro debut was much more up than down, as he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 52/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at short season Williamsport, and at Class A Lakewood. He's a 6'5" lefty with a power, low to mid 90's fastball and a swing and miss slider, but he's been inconsistent with pretty much everything else. He sometimes struggles to keep his big frame in sync, which leads to elevated walk rates, and his changeup looks good at times but can also flatten out. That's a reliever profile on the surface, but I wrote before the draft that a pro team might be able to clean him up and get him to his mid-rotation ceiling. We've only seen 36 innings of him in pro ball, but the Phillies might be doing just that and he could end up being a fourth round steal if he the success holds up. He's certainly talented enough to do so.
- Victor Santos (2020 Age: 19-20): Despite still being just a teenager, Santos has thrown over 200 professional innings and has walked just 27 batters – that alone tells you most of what you need to know about the 6'1" righty. In 2019, he skipped over short season ball and went straight to Class A Lakewood still a few months shy of his 19th birthday, and he posted a 4.02 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings. He comes in with long arm action but his command is just about as pinpoint as you could possibly expect from a teenager, and that makes him really interesting. He sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a so-so slider and an advanced changeup, which he mixes effectively against older competition. His stuff at present will not play in the majors no matter how good his command is, but with that box checked and then some, he has plenty of time to refine that pure stuff. Even a few small improvements, such as a bump into the low 90's with his fastball or some sharpening of his slider, could make him a back-end starter, and just the fact that he's such a refined pitcher at such a young age makes him really interesting.
- Kyle Young (2020 Age: 22): Young, a 22nd round pick out of a Long Island high school in 2016, opened a lot of eyes in 2018 with a 3.10 ERA and a 44/7 strikeout to walk ratio at Class A. The Phillies were excited to see what he could do in 2019, but after posting a 4.29 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 25/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 innings at High A Clearwater, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. Young is physically imposing, to say the least, at 6'10", though his pinpoint command is what makes him the prospect he is. His stuff is average and his fastball sometimes struggles to scrape 90, but it plays up not only due to the command but also due to his height and extension, giving the ball nice angle. 2020 will be mostly about getting his feet back under him, but he'll be 22 for the whole season and he has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter if he can stay healthy.
- Gunner Mayer (2020 Age: 19-20): Mayer, a fifth round pick out of a California junior college in 2019, is a real sleeper, but I like him a lot. Having just turned 19 in July, he's very much a work in progress, but as a 6'6" righty with a loose arm, he will get a lot of patience from the Phillies. His fastball already sits in the low 90's, he gets nice depth on his curveball, and he also shows a slider and a changeup, his easy delivery making it seem very likely that the stuff could tick up. His command still needs some work, but all the building blocks are here and I think pro refinement could help him take a big step forward, if not immediately in 2020 then perhaps in 2021. Mark him down as a sleeper to watch.
- Keep an eye on: Bailey Falter, Colton Eastman, Nick Fanti, Ethan Evanko, Kevin Gowdy, Brett Schulze, Jose Conopoima
Relief Pitching
- Enyel De Los Santos (2020 Age: 24): Originally signed by the Mariners in 2014, De Los Santos went to the Padres for Joaquin Benoit in 2015 then to the Phillies for Freddy Galvis in 2017. He's now had two short stints up in the majors with the Phillies, posting a combined 5.70 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 innings, but he retains prospect status. In the minors in 2019, he had a 4.40 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 83/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley, and in most organizations he'd still have a chance to start, but the Phillies are so deep in starting pitching in the upper minors that he'll probably have to shift to the bullpen. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and while his curveball never really developed into anything special, he does have a nice changeup and decent enough command that have kept him in the rotation up to this point. In the bullpen, his fastball and changeup can play up, and his ability to go multiple innings will make him more than a matchup righty. He could also make spot starts where necessary, making him more of a pocket knife than a refined, one-role guy.
- Mauricio Llovera (2020 Age: 24): Llovera is probably in the same boat as De Los Santos. He pitched well in the low and mid minors and reached AA in 2019, posting a 4.55 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings as a starter for Reading, but the crowded rotation picture means he'll probably be better off in the bullpen. He's only 5'11" but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a nice slider to go with a curveball and a changeup, all of which he commands fairly well, but he'll be able to scrap one of those pitches and allow his power stuff to play up in shorter stints. He's the kind of guy who could take a big step forward in the bullpen, so it will be interesting to see how the Phillies handle that in 2020.
- Connor Brogdon (2020 Age: 25): Brogdon already made his transition to the bullpen, and his 2.61 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 106/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings at High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and AAA Lehigh Valley were evidence that the transition went really well. The 6'6" righty has solid command of his mid 90's fastball and good slider, and with the ability to go multiple innings, he had one of the more impressive seasons among minor league relievers. Watch out for Brogdon to try to crack the Phillies bullpen in 2020, as he may have pushed himself past Kyle Dohy as the top pure-relief prospect in the system.
- Kyle Dohy (2020 Age: 23): Dohy's huge 2018, in which he struck out 111 batters in 67.1 innings across three levels, put him on the map, though 2019 was a bit rougher as advanced hitters started to punish his mistakes. He posted a 5.32 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 105/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings at AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley, showing both major league stuff and minor league command. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a swing and miss slider and a good changeup from a deceptive delivery, but his continued struggles with command likely mean that he'll be more of a seventh inning guy than a future closer. A small step forward with that command in 2020 should get him up to the majors.
- Dominic Pipkin (2020 Age: 20): Pipkin, the Phillies' ninth round pick out of an Oakland-area high school in 2018, is a starter for now, but his future is likely in the bullpen. In 2019, he had a 5.15 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 44/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.2 innings at Class A Lakewood, which are pretty ugly numbers until you realize he was 19 the whole time. Pipkin was fairly raw coming out of high school so I was a bit surprised when they sent him to full season ball to start 2019, and while his low 90's fastball was enough to get him through lineups of older hitters, the rest of his stuff wasn't quite consistent enough. He's more about projection than anything else, as he has a loose arm and a smooth delivery from a projectable 6'4" frame, and another year at the level might help him get back on track towards becoming a #3 or #4 starter. If he transitions to the bullpen, he could add some velocity and focus on one or two of his secondary pitches, then move more quickly than he would as a starter.
- Keep an eye on: Addison Russ, Jeff Singer, Andrew Schultz
Showing posts with label Bryson Stott. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bryson Stott. Show all posts
Sunday, December 22, 2019
Monday, July 1, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies
First five rounds: Bryson Stott (1-14), Jamari Baylor (3-91), Erik Miller (4-120), Gunner Mayer (5-150)
Also notable: Andrew Schultz (6-180), Brett Schulze (7-210), Nate Fassnacht (8-240), Michael Prosecky (35-1050)
The Phillies lost their second round pick after signing Bryce Harper, but they still came away with an interesting draft class. They balanced out their draft, position-wise, by spreading out their Day One/Day Two picks with five infielders, two starting pitchers, and two relievers before starting Day Three with three straight outfielders. First rounder Bryson Stott has a chance to be a real impact player for a long time in Philadelphia, and I really like fourth rounder Erik Miller and fifth rounder Gunner Mayer for their draft positions, as Miller might be a few mechanical tweaks from putting it together and Mayer is just the kind of pitcher that the Phillies can turn into a star.
1-14: SS Bryson Stott (UNLV, my rank: 13)
Bryson Stott was viewed more as a Kevin Newman-esque slap hitter coming into the season, which put him closer to the back of the first round than the front, but he added power in a big junior season and pushed himself into the top half. After slashing .365/.442/.556 with four home runs as a sophomore, the Las Vegas native bumped it up to .356/.486/.599 with ten home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 39/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games as a junior. Stott is a skinny 6'3", but his combination of long levers, ability to transfer his weight forward, and exceptional feel for the barrel enabled him to get close to average power, and he now projects for 15 or so per season. However, his calling card is his contact ability, as managed to strike out just 13.9% of the time despite changing his approach from a slap-heavy one to a more balanced one. Stott draws plenty of walks and could flirt with .400 on base percentages if he reaches his ceiling, and his above average speed makes him an asset on the bases as well, though not a true threat. He's a shortstop for now and could stick there, but scouts are split as to whether he may be better suited for third base if he loses a step with age. Overall, it's a leadoff projection and he could even add more power down the line. He signed for $3.9 million, which was $140,000 below slot.
3-91: SS Jamari Baylor (Benedictine HS [VA], unranked)
While Stott is fairly refined, Jamari Baylor is more of a raw talent with plenty of upside who will take some patience to develop. The Richmond native comes from Benedictine College Prep, a military academy on the outskirts of the city, where he has shown off his strength and athleticism and pushed his name up draft boards. He hits the ball hard from the right side and shows some nice loft, and while there's less swing and miss in his game than you'd expect, he also doesn't get to his raw power as often as he'd like to at this point. The Phillies are going to have to help him get more consistent with his swing mechanics, though because he finds the barrel fairly easily, he shouldn't have too much of a problem with that. It's hard to project the 5'11" kid at this point but he could end up with 15-20 home runs annually and solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he's currently a shortstop and has worked hard to get better there, though additional work with his glove is needed if he does indeed want to remain at the premium position. His strong arm and plus speed mean that he could also handle third base or right field effectively. Baylor signed away from his Louisburg (NC) Junior College commitment for $675,000, which was $27,700 above slot.
4-120: LHP Erik Miller (Stanford, my rank: 62)
A potential top five round draft pick out of a St. Louis-area high school in 2016, Miller expressed his desire to attend Stanford and ended up undrafted. Three years later, he's still somewhat of an enigma and it's hard to know what to make of him going forward. All three of his college seasons have been very up and down, and he finished his junior season with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 102/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings. He had some highs, such as when he posted back to back scoreless starts against Washington and Oregon in April, and he had some lows, such as when he was knocked out in the third inning in what ended up being his final start in a Stanford uniform against Mississippi State on June 9th, six days after the draft. The 6'5", 240 pound lefty is an imposing presence on the mound, and he uses his size to fire low to mid 90's fastballs to go with a very good slider. However, he has never quite figured out his mechanics, and his inconsistency there has led to bouts of wildness; he walked at least three batters in 11 of his 16 starts. Miller also has a solid but inconsistent changeup, so if the Phillies think they could get his mechanics under control, he actually has high upside as a mid-rotation starter. However, barring one of those epiphanies, he likely ends up either a back-end starter or a reliever, where his fastball and slider could play up and make him a set-up man or even a closer if he's lucky. Miller signed for $428,300, which was $50,000 below slot.
5-150: RHP Gunner Mayer (San Joaquin Delta JC, unranked)
Gunner Mayer is a bit of a sleeper as a California JuCo arm, but the Phillies do well with this type of player and he could break out once he gets some pro coaching. The Danville, California native stands 6'6" and has plenty of room to add good weight, and his loose arm produces fastballs in the low 90's, a big curveball, and a slider and changeup that still need development. His arm action is a little long, but his delivery is overall fairly smooth, so given that as well as the projection of added weight with maturity down the road, he could sit in the mid 90's when all is said and done. Mayer's command still needs some work and he's a project by most measures, but one with high upside. A college freshman, he's young for his class and still won't turn 19 for a few weeks. As a one man crew, I hadn't come across his name before the draft, but he would not have ranked too far outside the top 100 if I had. Mayer signed for $600,000, which was $242,900 above slot, and he tossed a perfect inning in his first game in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, striking out one.
6-180: RHP Andrew Schultz (Tennessee, unranked)
The Phillies shifted over to the relief side in the sixth round, hoping to get a fast mover in Tennessee's fireballing Andrew Schultz. The Atlanta-area native posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings out of the Volunteers' bullpen this year, showcasing premium velocity and little ability to actually find the strike zone. Schultz sits in the mid to upper 90's with his riding fastball and his hard slider keeps hitters off balance, though the latter can be inconsistent. The 6'4" righty has always thrown hard, but his delivery is night and day different than it was a year ago. He used to reach back as far as he could before firing, and once it left his hand, he had no clue where it was going. This year, he showed up with extremely short arm action, throwing almost like a catcher because he holds the ball right behind his ear before exploding forward. That mechanical change helped his command improve from a literally non-existent entity to a mediocre, "I guess we can work with this" kind of deal. Now, the Phillies will try to push his command closer to average while helping him get more consistent with his command, and if he can pull both off, he could be a closer in the not-too-distant future. If he even pulls one off, he should still be an impact reliever fairly soon. Schultz signed for $225,000, which was $47,500 below slot, and he has allowed four runs over 2.2 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Class A Lakewood, striking out two and walking three (though one was intentional).
7-210: RHP Brett Schulze (Minnesota, unranked)
A round after taking Andrew Schultz, the Phillies grabbed another reliever with a similar name in Minnesota's Brett Schulze. The Minneapolis-area native was solid out of the Golden Gophers' bullpen, posting a 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 55/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings, reducing his walk rate from his sophomore season. He has the arm strength, command, and mechanics to start, but the lack of depth in his arsenal means he will almost certainly be a reliever in the Phillies' organization. He sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball without much effort, and the pitch's movement as well as his command of it help it miss bats. However, his curveball has nice shape but lacks the power to be a true out pitch, and he'll have to improve it if he wants to become an impact reliever. He has two of the three reliever boxes checked already with velocity and command, so that curveball will be the focus in the minors. No matter what happens with the breaking ball, he should still be quick to the majors and contribute soon in some capacity. The 6'2" righty signed for $175,000, which was $38,300 below slot, and he posted a scoreless inning in his first appearance in the Gulf Coast League, walking one.
8-240: SS Nate Fassnacht (George Washington, unranked)
I don't know much about Nate Fassnacht, but given that he's a Southeast Pennsylvania native from Ephrata, between Lancaster and Reading, I'm going to do my best to write about him. Fassnacht had a huge breakout junior year for George Washington University, slashing .372/.453/.655 with 11 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 23/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against mediocre competition in the Atlantic-10 Conference. It was truly a breakout season in all respects, as he added much more power and improved his plate discipline significantly over his sophomore year (.277/.363/.347, 46/25 K/BB). I found video of exactly one swing from his time at GW, and it looks like he generates a lot of torque from a fairly level swing from the right side. Defensively, he played shortstop for GW but I'm not sure where he will end up in pro ball, as the Phillies technically drafted him just as an infielder with no label. Ultimately, look for a utility infielder who has some upside with the bat. Fassnacht, who grew up a diehard Phillies fan, signed with his hometown team for $100,000, which was $72,100 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.368/.438 with a couple of walks over his first four games at short-season Williamsport.
35-1050: LHP Michael Prosecky (Nazareth HS [IL], unranked)
Michael Prosecky probably doesn't sign here and will instead honor his commitment to Louisville, but the Chicago-area high schooler is one of those kids with both projectability and present aptitude. He's a 6'4" lefty who can sit in the low 90's with his fastball, and his changeup is farther along than that of most high schoolers with its fade and drop. However, he lacks much of a breaking ball at this point, and he'll therefore struggle to get big strikeout totals in the near future. At 6'4", he's projectable and should add a little bit more velocity, and he has a clean delivery that helps him do a good job of throwing strikes. Prosecky has most of the building blocks that go into creating a true starting pitching prospect, but he definitely needs to work on that slider and Louisville will hope to bring it out of him. If he figures it out at Louisville, he could emerge in 2022 as a Day One prospect.
Also notable: Andrew Schultz (6-180), Brett Schulze (7-210), Nate Fassnacht (8-240), Michael Prosecky (35-1050)
The Phillies lost their second round pick after signing Bryce Harper, but they still came away with an interesting draft class. They balanced out their draft, position-wise, by spreading out their Day One/Day Two picks with five infielders, two starting pitchers, and two relievers before starting Day Three with three straight outfielders. First rounder Bryson Stott has a chance to be a real impact player for a long time in Philadelphia, and I really like fourth rounder Erik Miller and fifth rounder Gunner Mayer for their draft positions, as Miller might be a few mechanical tweaks from putting it together and Mayer is just the kind of pitcher that the Phillies can turn into a star.
1-14: SS Bryson Stott (UNLV, my rank: 13)
Bryson Stott was viewed more as a Kevin Newman-esque slap hitter coming into the season, which put him closer to the back of the first round than the front, but he added power in a big junior season and pushed himself into the top half. After slashing .365/.442/.556 with four home runs as a sophomore, the Las Vegas native bumped it up to .356/.486/.599 with ten home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 39/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games as a junior. Stott is a skinny 6'3", but his combination of long levers, ability to transfer his weight forward, and exceptional feel for the barrel enabled him to get close to average power, and he now projects for 15 or so per season. However, his calling card is his contact ability, as managed to strike out just 13.9% of the time despite changing his approach from a slap-heavy one to a more balanced one. Stott draws plenty of walks and could flirt with .400 on base percentages if he reaches his ceiling, and his above average speed makes him an asset on the bases as well, though not a true threat. He's a shortstop for now and could stick there, but scouts are split as to whether he may be better suited for third base if he loses a step with age. Overall, it's a leadoff projection and he could even add more power down the line. He signed for $3.9 million, which was $140,000 below slot.
3-91: SS Jamari Baylor (Benedictine HS [VA], unranked)
While Stott is fairly refined, Jamari Baylor is more of a raw talent with plenty of upside who will take some patience to develop. The Richmond native comes from Benedictine College Prep, a military academy on the outskirts of the city, where he has shown off his strength and athleticism and pushed his name up draft boards. He hits the ball hard from the right side and shows some nice loft, and while there's less swing and miss in his game than you'd expect, he also doesn't get to his raw power as often as he'd like to at this point. The Phillies are going to have to help him get more consistent with his swing mechanics, though because he finds the barrel fairly easily, he shouldn't have too much of a problem with that. It's hard to project the 5'11" kid at this point but he could end up with 15-20 home runs annually and solid on-base percentages. Defensively, he's currently a shortstop and has worked hard to get better there, though additional work with his glove is needed if he does indeed want to remain at the premium position. His strong arm and plus speed mean that he could also handle third base or right field effectively. Baylor signed away from his Louisburg (NC) Junior College commitment for $675,000, which was $27,700 above slot.
4-120: LHP Erik Miller (Stanford, my rank: 62)
A potential top five round draft pick out of a St. Louis-area high school in 2016, Miller expressed his desire to attend Stanford and ended up undrafted. Three years later, he's still somewhat of an enigma and it's hard to know what to make of him going forward. All three of his college seasons have been very up and down, and he finished his junior season with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 102/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings. He had some highs, such as when he posted back to back scoreless starts against Washington and Oregon in April, and he had some lows, such as when he was knocked out in the third inning in what ended up being his final start in a Stanford uniform against Mississippi State on June 9th, six days after the draft. The 6'5", 240 pound lefty is an imposing presence on the mound, and he uses his size to fire low to mid 90's fastballs to go with a very good slider. However, he has never quite figured out his mechanics, and his inconsistency there has led to bouts of wildness; he walked at least three batters in 11 of his 16 starts. Miller also has a solid but inconsistent changeup, so if the Phillies think they could get his mechanics under control, he actually has high upside as a mid-rotation starter. However, barring one of those epiphanies, he likely ends up either a back-end starter or a reliever, where his fastball and slider could play up and make him a set-up man or even a closer if he's lucky. Miller signed for $428,300, which was $50,000 below slot.
5-150: RHP Gunner Mayer (San Joaquin Delta JC, unranked)
Gunner Mayer is a bit of a sleeper as a California JuCo arm, but the Phillies do well with this type of player and he could break out once he gets some pro coaching. The Danville, California native stands 6'6" and has plenty of room to add good weight, and his loose arm produces fastballs in the low 90's, a big curveball, and a slider and changeup that still need development. His arm action is a little long, but his delivery is overall fairly smooth, so given that as well as the projection of added weight with maturity down the road, he could sit in the mid 90's when all is said and done. Mayer's command still needs some work and he's a project by most measures, but one with high upside. A college freshman, he's young for his class and still won't turn 19 for a few weeks. As a one man crew, I hadn't come across his name before the draft, but he would not have ranked too far outside the top 100 if I had. Mayer signed for $600,000, which was $242,900 above slot, and he tossed a perfect inning in his first game in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, striking out one.
6-180: RHP Andrew Schultz (Tennessee, unranked)
The Phillies shifted over to the relief side in the sixth round, hoping to get a fast mover in Tennessee's fireballing Andrew Schultz. The Atlanta-area native posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings out of the Volunteers' bullpen this year, showcasing premium velocity and little ability to actually find the strike zone. Schultz sits in the mid to upper 90's with his riding fastball and his hard slider keeps hitters off balance, though the latter can be inconsistent. The 6'4" righty has always thrown hard, but his delivery is night and day different than it was a year ago. He used to reach back as far as he could before firing, and once it left his hand, he had no clue where it was going. This year, he showed up with extremely short arm action, throwing almost like a catcher because he holds the ball right behind his ear before exploding forward. That mechanical change helped his command improve from a literally non-existent entity to a mediocre, "I guess we can work with this" kind of deal. Now, the Phillies will try to push his command closer to average while helping him get more consistent with his command, and if he can pull both off, he could be a closer in the not-too-distant future. If he even pulls one off, he should still be an impact reliever fairly soon. Schultz signed for $225,000, which was $47,500 below slot, and he has allowed four runs over 2.2 innings between the Gulf Coast League and Class A Lakewood, striking out two and walking three (though one was intentional).
7-210: RHP Brett Schulze (Minnesota, unranked)
A round after taking Andrew Schultz, the Phillies grabbed another reliever with a similar name in Minnesota's Brett Schulze. The Minneapolis-area native was solid out of the Golden Gophers' bullpen, posting a 3.07 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 55/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings, reducing his walk rate from his sophomore season. He has the arm strength, command, and mechanics to start, but the lack of depth in his arsenal means he will almost certainly be a reliever in the Phillies' organization. He sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball without much effort, and the pitch's movement as well as his command of it help it miss bats. However, his curveball has nice shape but lacks the power to be a true out pitch, and he'll have to improve it if he wants to become an impact reliever. He has two of the three reliever boxes checked already with velocity and command, so that curveball will be the focus in the minors. No matter what happens with the breaking ball, he should still be quick to the majors and contribute soon in some capacity. The 6'2" righty signed for $175,000, which was $38,300 below slot, and he posted a scoreless inning in his first appearance in the Gulf Coast League, walking one.
8-240: SS Nate Fassnacht (George Washington, unranked)
I don't know much about Nate Fassnacht, but given that he's a Southeast Pennsylvania native from Ephrata, between Lancaster and Reading, I'm going to do my best to write about him. Fassnacht had a huge breakout junior year for George Washington University, slashing .372/.453/.655 with 11 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 23/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against mediocre competition in the Atlantic-10 Conference. It was truly a breakout season in all respects, as he added much more power and improved his plate discipline significantly over his sophomore year (.277/.363/.347, 46/25 K/BB). I found video of exactly one swing from his time at GW, and it looks like he generates a lot of torque from a fairly level swing from the right side. Defensively, he played shortstop for GW but I'm not sure where he will end up in pro ball, as the Phillies technically drafted him just as an infielder with no label. Ultimately, look for a utility infielder who has some upside with the bat. Fassnacht, who grew up a diehard Phillies fan, signed with his hometown team for $100,000, which was $72,100 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.368/.438 with a couple of walks over his first four games at short-season Williamsport.
35-1050: LHP Michael Prosecky (Nazareth HS [IL], unranked)
Michael Prosecky probably doesn't sign here and will instead honor his commitment to Louisville, but the Chicago-area high schooler is one of those kids with both projectability and present aptitude. He's a 6'4" lefty who can sit in the low 90's with his fastball, and his changeup is farther along than that of most high schoolers with its fade and drop. However, he lacks much of a breaking ball at this point, and he'll therefore struggle to get big strikeout totals in the near future. At 6'4", he's projectable and should add a little bit more velocity, and he has a clean delivery that helps him do a good job of throwing strikes. Prosecky has most of the building blocks that go into creating a true starting pitching prospect, but he definitely needs to work on that slider and Louisville will hope to bring it out of him. If he figures it out at Louisville, he could emerge in 2022 as a Day One prospect.
Friday, May 17, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Shortstops
Shortstop is always one of the deepest positions at first glance, but many of these guys end up pushed off the position over to second or third base, and I tried to include those guys over with those positions. Still, the ability to play and stay at shortstop is a huge boon to a player's draft stock, as shortstops who can hit are hard to come by and when they are found, they become stars (see Francisco Lindor, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter). This year's crop is especially deep, especially at the college level (I pushed college shortstops Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake, and Brady McConnell to the second base list), though some high school bats are showing some real helium as of late.
Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.
Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.
Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.
Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin
Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.
Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.
Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.
Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin
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