The Giants' farm system was in pretty dire condition at this time last year, but a number of breakouts make this a greatly improved system. Up at the top, Conner Menez and Sean Hjelle now give Logan Webb a serious run for the top MLB-ready pitching prospect in the system, while Seth Corry's breakout down in A ball might be the most important among all the pitchers. On the offensive side, Heliot Ramos got it figured out like we all knew he would, but the real story of perhaps the entire farm system has been the success of the recent international signees. Franklin Labour (2015) and Alexander Canario (2016) put it all together in big breakout seasons, while Marco Luciano, Jairo Pomares, Luis Matos, and Victor Bericoto (all 2018) took complex ball by storm to make that 2018 international class look like a gold mine. However, the reality is aside from that trio of pitchers (Menez, Hjelle, and Webb) and a couple of guys like Ramos, Joey Bart, and Mauricio Dubon the vast majority of the talent in this system is a long way off.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta GreenJackets, short season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL and DSL Giants
Catcher
- Joey Bart (2020 Age: 23): Bart vaulted himself to the top of the 2018 draft with a huge junior season at Georgia Tech, ultimately going second overall to the Giants. In 2019, he slashed .278/.328/.495 with 16 home runs and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games at High A San Jose and AA Richmond. He has a ton of pop from the right spot and he has proven he can get to it consistently, and it could ultimately translate to 25-30 or more home runs annually in the majors. His weak spot on offense is his hit tool, which he has worked hard to improve from below average to nearly average. He's still a free swinger and his plate discipline remains so-so, but he's trending in the right direction and it shouldn't be a problem at the major league level. Defensively, he's also trending in the right direction and he's now considered an above average defender behind the plate, and the whole package should make the Atlanta-area native a more than fitting replacement for Buster Posey, another Georgia native.
- Aramis Garcia (2020 Age: 27): It ain't easy when you're blocked by Buster Posey at your position and coming up behind you is arguably the best catching prospect in the game. Garcia spent most of 2019 at AAA Sacramento, where he slashed .271/.343/.488 with 16 home runs and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games, and he's also slashed .229/.270/.419 with six home runs and a 52/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in his major league career between 2018 and 2019. That major league line is roughly what we can expect out of Garcia over the long run, if possibly a bit on the low side. He has good pop for a catcher and is capable of hitting 15-20 home runs annually, but he's a free swinger that has a few holes in his swing, so I wouldn't expect high on-base percentages. He would fit in as a solid back-up catcher for both Posey and Bart, though if he goes elsewhere and makes some adjustments in his approach, he may be able to start.
- Ricardo Genoves (2020 Age: 20-21): Genoves has always been known to scouts as a glove-first catcher who may or may not hit, but he did hit in 2019 and that's a good sign going forward. In 51 games, he slashed .265/.335/.469 with nine home runs and a 41/17 strikeout to walk ratio at short season Salem-Keizer and Class A Augusta, tapping into that moderate raw power he packs into his 6'2" frame and getting to the barrel often enough to be a productive hitter. It's hard to say whether those gains will translate up into the mid and upper minors, but he did slash .292/.361/.446 in his 19 games at Class A and he doesn't turn 21 until May. His glove will buy his bat plenty of time, and he projects as a back-up catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Brandon Martorano
Corner Infield
- Chris Shaw (2020 Age: 26): Shaw finds himself in a somewhat similar position to Aramis Garcia in that he's blocked by Brandon Belt at his primary position, though he doesn't have a Joey Bart coming up behind him. This year, Shaw slashed .294/.360/.559 with 28 home runs and a 111/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, and like Garcia, he's spent parts of two seasons in the majors, slashing .153/.244/.222 with one home run in 38 games. The Boston College product has a lot of raw pop from the left side of the plate, and while he's been able to get to it in the upper minors, that hasn't been the case yet at the major league level. Always a free swinger, major league pitchers have exploited holes in Shaw's swing, much like they have with Garcia, and while he has more power than his catching counterpart, he doesn't provide nearly as much defensive value. He's fine as a first baseman, but the Giants have Belt there and he's worked to mediocre results in left field. He ultimately projects as a Matt Adams-like platoon bat.
- Logan Wyatt (2020 Age: 22): Wyatt was a second round pick out of Louisville this year, and I think he might be one of the better Day One bargains. Pushed across three levels in his brief pro debut, he slashed .278/.388/.377 with three home runs and a 29/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games in the complex level Arizona League, at short season Salem-Keizer, and at Class A Augusta. Unlike all of the other names you've read here so far, he's an extremely patient hitter, and his excellent plate discipline helps him put up high on-base percentages while also handling advanced pitching. However, he's a first baseman who has still not proven he can hit for power, as he's 6'4" with great feel for the barrel but seems content with just lacing the ball into the dirt. If Wyatt joins the launch angle revolution over his first pro offseason and comes out lifting the ball in the spring, watch out – he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with those high on-base percentages and replace Brandon Belt as a very similar player.
- Luis Toribio (2020 Age: 19): Toribio spent most of 2019 down in the complex level Arizona League, and he slashed .296/.433/.454 with three home runs and a 59/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games between there and three games with Salem-Keizer. He's an extremely patient hitter with good knowledge of the strike zone, especially for his age (he only turned 19 in September), and combining his high walk rates with very good feel for the barrel should help him post high on-base percentages in the majors. It's not yet known what kind of power he'll hit for, but he's got a projectable frame at 6'1" and he generates a lot of torque in his left handed swing, so more is certainly possible if not likely. He has high upside and with the way that fellow international signees Franklin Labour, Marco Luciano, and Alexander Canario broke out this year, he most certainly could be next.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Green, David Villar, Jacob Gonzalez, Garrett Frechette, Victor Bericoto
Middle Infield
- Mauricio Dubon (2020 Age: 25-26): This guy has been around forever. A 26th round pick by the Red Sox out of a Sacramento high school in 2013, Dubon was traded to the Brewers in the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg deal following the 2016 season and then to the Giants for Drew Pomeranz at the 2019 deadline. After missing most of 2018 with an ACL injury, he got back on his feet this year and slashed .302/.345/.477 with 20 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 68/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between the two AAA affiliates and also hit .274/.306/.434 with four home runs over 30 major league games. While he popped 25 home runs overall in 2019, that might set power expectations a bit higher than they should be, as the Pacific Coast League is extremely hitter-friendly and his build is more conducive to 10-15 home runs per year. He does show good feel for the barrel and has hit for high averages and on-base percentages everywhere he's gone, and he profiles well with good defense at second base and playable defense at shortstop. A plus runner before the ACL injury, it may have sapped some of his speed but he was still safely above average in that regard in his debut. If the Giants don't go out and sign a second baseman this offseason, Dubon should be able to take over as the starter on Opening Day and could put up a slash line similar to the .274/.306/.434 mark he had last season.
- Marco Luciano (2020 Age: 18): This is one of the most exciting young prospects in the system. Signed for $2.6 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, he skipped the DSL entirely and went straight to the complex-level Arizona League as a 17 year old in 2019, and all he did was slash .322/.438/.616 with ten home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games. He earned a late promotion to short season Salem-Keizer, where he was one of the youngest players in the league and slashed .212/.316/.333 with six strikeouts to five walks in nine games. Very athletically built at 6'2", he has a sweet right handed swing that produces nice leverage and power, which he combines with advanced plate discipline to consistently find pitches to attack and drive. For now, he's a shortstop with a strong arm and he has a good chance to stay there, but there's a chance he moves to third base down the line. For now, Luciano has everything going for him as a young prospect with no clear holes in his game, and he has one of the highest ceilings in the system.
- Tyler Fitzgerald (2020 Age: 22): It took Fitzgerald's highly regarded bat a few years to get going once he got to Louisville, but a big junior year pushed him into the fourth round in 2019 and he slashed .276/.358/.395 with one home run, six stolen bases, and a 41/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games across three levels up to Class A Augusta. That line is just about accurate. He's not going to wow you with any big tools, but he's a competent hitter with some gap power who should grow into moderate home run power while getting on base at a solid clip. Defensively, he should be able to stick at shortstop, though his profile perfectly fits that of a utility infielder. If he has to move over to third base, Luis Toribio and maybe Jacob Gonzalez are his only real competition, unless of course if Marco Luciano slides over there as well. He should move through the minors relatively quickly.
- Keep an eye on: Abiatal Avelino, Jalen Miller, Dilan Rosario
Outfield
- Heliot Ramos (2020 Age: 20): A first round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2017, Ramos' first full season at Class A Augusta in 2018 was a bit disappointing (.245/.313/.395), but he broke out in a big way in 2019. Playing at High A San Jose, where he was one of the younger players in the California League, he slashed .306/.385/.500 with 13 home runs and an 85/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games to earn a promotion to AA Richmond at just 19 years old. There, he added three more home runs and slashed .242/.321/.421 over 25 games, which is still impressive given his age. He's an explosive player with power, speed, and a strong arm in the outfield, giving him a classic right field profile if he has to move out of center. There are still raw elements to his game, as he still has some swing and miss and hasn't proven himself against advanced pitching. That's okay because very few 20 year olds have, and just tightening up his strike zone judgement and finding the barrel a little more could make him a 25 homer bat in the majors with some speed and good defense.
- Hunter Bishop (2020 Age: 21-22): Bishop rode an absolutely massive breakout season at Arizona State (22 HR, .342/.479/.748) to a first round draft selection, and the Giants are happy to bring home the kid from San Mateo who attended Junipero Serra High School. He had a relatively quiet pro debut, slashing .229/.438/.429 with five home runs and a 39/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer, but he did show some pop as well as stronger than expected plate discipline. He has a ton of power in his 6'5" frame, but questions loom over his ability to get to it consistently against advanced pitching as it never showed up in the Cape Cod League and didn't come often against Pac-12 pitching. He's a very patient hitter, which helps him maximize that power and get his pitches to drive, and he's trending in the right direction. With continued improvement in his hit tool, he could hit 30+ home runs annually in the majors, and he has enough speed to stick in center field. Overall, he could provide a lot of value on both sides of the ball.
- Sandro Fabian (2020 Age: 22): Fabian did a much better job in his second crack at High A, as he slashed just .200/.260/.325 as a 20 year old there in 2018 but bumped his line up to .287/.353/.413 with five home runs and a 33/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games there this year (plus a .219/.366/.500 line and two home runs in ten games in complex ball rehab). He's not going to hit for a ton of power, but he has good feel for the barrel from the right side and his plate discipline is improving to the point where he could be a useful fourth outfielder in the relatively near future. He's a good defender that should be able to handle all three spots, and if he can stay healthy consistently, he could hit around ten home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Alexander Canario (2020 Age: 19-20): Canario signed for just $60,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016 but he's already smashing expectations, and his breakout 2019 saw him slash .318/.377/.623 with 16 home runs and an 80/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games between the Arizona League and Salem-Keizer. He always had power potential, but he finally grew into it in 2019 and crushed balls all over the park both in complex and short season ball as a teenager with 38 extra base hits in 59 games. He's still a bit raw at the plate and can be overly aggressive, so full season ball will be a big test in 2020, but it's hard not to be excited about the big power and good feel for the barrel that he has. He should hit 20+ home runs annually in the majors while playing good defense in the outfield.
- Franklin Labour (2020 Age: 21-22): Perhaps even more under the radar than Canario was Franklin Labour, who signed for just $70,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 before spending three years in complex ball. Up at Salem-Keizer in 2019, he smashed 14 home runs in 41 games and slashed .307/.392/.639 with a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio before being promoted to Class A Augusta, where he was a bit overmatched and hit .215/.282/.299 with one home run and a 40/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games. He generates a ton of power and leverage from his right handed swing, and he got to it remarkably consistently in short season ball. However, as with Canario, the real test has to be full season ball, where he struggled in 2019. He's older than Canario and I'm less confident that his hit tool will translate up, but he has the upside as a power hitting left fielder.
- Jairo Pomares (2020 Age: 19-20)/Luis Matos (2020 Age: 18): I'm choosing to lump these guys together because they're both far, far away but have similar profiles and started their pro careers with a bang. Pomares, a Cuban import, slashed .368/.401/.542 in 37 Arizona League games but fell to .207/.258/.259 in 17 short season games with Salem-Keizer, while Matos, from Venezuela, hit .362/.430/.570 in 55 Dominican Summer League games before putting up a .438/.550/.500 line in five Arizona League games. Pomares stands 6'1", but it was the 5'11" Matos who showed more power in his pro debut, and both have shown exceptional bat to ball skills for their age while spraying line drives all over the park. Matos especially has shown very advanced plate discipline for his age, as he doesn't even turn 18 until January, and both are above average runners who have the ability to stick in center field. Pomares is more highly regarded at this point, but a part of me likes Matos better and wants to put my money on him.
- Keep an eye on: Bryce Johnson, Heath Quinn, Diego Rincones, Grant McCray, P.J. Hilson
Starting Pitching
- Logan Webb (2020 Age: 23): Somewhat of a hometown guy, Webb grew up in Rocklin, a Sacramento suburb, and had his breakout year in 2018 (2.41 ERA, 100/47 K/BB) four years after he was drafted. However, it turned out he was juicing and he was suspended for 80 games in 2019, but the results were still good; overall, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 69/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings across four levels, and he reached the majors in August and posted a 5.22 ERA and a 37/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.2 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's and gets a ton of ground balls with that fastball, and he adds a power slider that has missed bats in bunches. His changeup is coming along and should be usable, and with his solid command, he should be able to make it as a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if he can continue to refine that changeup. A move to the bullpen is not completely out of the question, but he's proven enough recently to earn a long look in the major league rotation.
- Conner Menez (2020 Age: 24-25): Born and raised in Hollister, which is just south of the Bay Area off 101, Menez was drafted in the 14th round out of The Master's University in 2016 and was all the way up in High A San Jose by the end of the year. However, it was 2019 that was his breakout season, as he posted a 3.79 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 154/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the latter of which was an extremely hitter-friendly context. He also made eight major league appearances with a 5.29 ERA and a 22/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, two breaking balls, and a changeup, but everything plays up because he gets good angle on his pitches to create deception and a high spin rate to miss bats. His command has improved steadily as he's risen through the minors, and while he'll never be a pinpoint guy, he throws enough strikes now to be successful. Menez isn't a future ace but I feel like I'd be selling him short by describing him as just another #4 starter.
- Sean Hjelle (2020 Age: 22-23): It's hard to miss Hjelle (pronounced "jelly") on the baseball field, because he stands 6'11" and would match Jon Rauch as the tallest player ever if he makes the majors. However, after being drafted in the second round out of Kentucky in 2018, it was his performance on the mound that made him stand out even more. This year, he had a 3.32 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 139/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings across three levels all the way up to AA Richmond. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it gets on hitters quick due to his exceptionally long arms, and he adds a very good curveball that gets swings and misses. However, his best trait as a pitcher is his command, as he's walked just 41 batters in 165 pro innings so far and he can spot all of his pitches well. I'm not completely sold on Hjelle as an impact starter yet, but he has the chance to be a #3 starter with a more likely outcome as a #4 or #5.
- Seth Corry (2020 Age: 21): Corry was more of a projection guy than anything else when he was drafted in the third round out of a Utah high school in 2017, but that projection began to bear fruit in a breakout 2019. This year, he posted a 1.76 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 172/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings at Class A Augusta, showing greatly improved command to go with his power stuff. A 6'2" lefty, he's still likely below average with that command, but he's made enough progress that his low 90's fastball and excellent power curve can play up and miss bats by the bunches. There's still a lot more work to be done, but he's well on his way to reaching his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter if he can tighten that command up a little more and continue to improve his changeup.
- Jake Wong (2020 Age: 23): Drafted one round after Hjelle out of Grand Canyon University, Wong had a solid first full season by posting a 3.90 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 101/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose. His mid 90's fastball is his best attribute, and he adds an improving curveball and changeup to the mix, but it all plays down somewhat because his command is fringy and he lacks deception. I see him more as a reliever, where his fastball/curveball combination could sharpen and where he'll need less deception, but continued refinement of his command could make him a solid mid to back-end starter.
- Matt Frisbee (2020 Age: 23): A 15th round pick out of UNC-Greensboro in 2018, Frisbee was originally thought of as a reliever and was successfully used in that role in his pro debut last year (2.96 ERA, 36/13 K/BB). However, he transitioned back to the rotation in 2019 and the results were tremendous, as he posted a 3.13 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 154/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.1 innings at Augusta and San Jose. It's hard to find video or updated scouting reports on him, but coming out of college he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but needed work on his secondaries. I can't confirm but I would guess that they took a step forward in 2019, as did his command, which went from solid to very good. A 6'5" righty, he has the chance to leapfrog some of the more highly-touted names on this list like Beck and Wong.
- Trevor McDonald (2020 Age: 19): The Giants have had a lot of success in their rotation with pitchers from Alabama (Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy), and just a few miles over the border in George County, Mississippi, they grabbed 6'2" righty Trevor McDonald in the 2019 draft. McDonald only threw four pro innings in 2019 with a 2.25 ERA and eight strikeouts to two walks in complex ball, and he's all upside. He sits in the low 90's for now but with an incredibly quick arm, he could easily add velocity and get into the mid 90's, and he adds three offspeed pitches. They're all inconsistent for now, but he has shown a very strong feel for pitching, and he's the kind of guy who could take off with pro instruction. On the checklist are proving durability and getting more consistent with those secondary pitches, but he's a sleeper to watch.
- Keep an eye on: Tristan Beck, John Gavin, Kai-Wei Teng, Prelander Berroa
Relief Pitching
- Garrett Williams (2020 Age: 25): What do you make a guy who has posted ERA's of 5.01, 2.32, 6.06, and 3.60 in his four pro seasons, and who was equally inconsistent in college? Williams has always flashed big league stuff, but injuries and control problems have hampered him since his time at Oklahoma State. He can sit anywhere in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and he adds a curveball that is a true out pitch when he's on, but he loses the strike zone regularly and gets hammered when he does. In 2019, he had a 3.60 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 108/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at AA Richmond, and the Giants finally moved him to the bullpen in August, where he had a 2.87 ERA and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings. This seems like a no-brainer to me, as the combination of injuries+unstable command+inconsistent stuff should be remedied.
- Blake Rivera (2020 Age: 22): Rivera still hopes to be next in the long line of Giants starters from Alabama, though he's looking more and more like a reliever. A fourth round pick out of an Alabama community college in 2018, he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an 87/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings between Class A Augusta and complex ball rehab this year. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a very good curveball, but he hasn't proven to be consistent with either his strike throwing ability or his durability. He's still working on those things, and if he takes a step forward with either in 2020, he could stick as a starter, but for now he's looking like he could be a valuable two pitch reliever.
- Gregory Santos (2020 Age: 20): Santos, like Rivera, still has a shot at starting, but he's yet to eclipse 50 innings in a season while he's battled shoulder issues. In 2019, he posted a 2.86 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings at Augusta, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adding a curveball that looks good at times but which lacks hard bite. He's done a good job throwing strikes in his small samples, which means he could eventually have above average command if he can stay healthy, though durability is a serious question and a move to the bullpen might be in his best interest. Set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old, he'll still have every chance to prove himself as a starter.
- Keep an eye on: Melvin Adon, Sam Selman, Caleb Kilian
Showing posts with label Sean Hjelle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sean Hjelle. Show all posts
Saturday, November 23, 2019
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Reviewing the San Francisco Giants Farm System
The Giants have a couple of exciting prospects at the top of their system, but once you get past Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, there really isn't much going on here. There is a decent amount of upside in the system, but most players come with significant risk and overall I expect relatively few of these players to make meaningful big league contributions. The ones that do, though, could could be big. It's a little pitching heavy, though the consensus top two prospects in the system, Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, are position players. Aside from Shaun Anderson and possibly Sean Hjelle, most pitching prospects in this system look to have a high relief risk.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta Green Jackets, Short Season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL (Orange and Black) and DSL Giants
The Headliner: C Joey Bart
Sometimes, things just work out, as was the case with 21 year old Joey Bart and the Giants. Pablo Sandoval's season ending, walk off home run in 2017 may have given the Tigers the first overall pick, and while Casey Mize would have been nice, Bart just fits perfectly into the Giants' plans. He'll be ready to take over at catcher just as Buster Posey is transitioned to a new position. Bart had a monster year at Georgia Tech this year, and after being selected second overall, he slashed .294/.364/.588 with 13 home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games, mostly with Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has huge power, some of the best in the minors, though his plate discipline is relatively mediocre and contact may be a concern at the higher levels. He has worked hard to improve his defense and has a cannon behind the plate, and overall the package resembles Gary Sanchez. At the least, I expect Bart to at least be something of a Mike Zunino to the Giants, but honestly I think he'll iron out the contact issues and become and All Star. Look for him to start 2019 at Class A Augusta, but he'll likely be at High A San Jose sooner rather than later if he doesn't start there outright.
The Rest of the Hitters: OF Heliot Ramos, OF Chris Shaw, C Aramis Garcia, SS Abiatal Avelino, OF Heath Quinn, 3B Jacob Gonzalez, OF Sandro Fabian, 3B David Villar, SS Marco Luciano, and OF Alexander Canario
The Giants are not deep when it comes to minor league hitters, especially after headliner Joey Bart, so I decided to lump the rest of the interesting ones into one long section. There's one or two interesting bats in each phase of development for the Giants, and while the wealth is nice and spread out from top to bottom of the development ladder, there are really only two "impact" prospects on this list. 19 year old Heliot Ramos is the consensus #2 prospect in this system, right behind Bart, and may have the highest ceiling out of anyone. He was drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Puerto Rico in 2017, showcasing huge power and some good speed despite being extremely young for the draft class. Playing all of 2018 at just 18 years old, he slashed .245/.313/.396 with eleven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Augusta. While those numbers aren't exactly inspiring, he was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League and he has plenty of time to develop. The stock isn't up from when he was drafted, but it's not really down either; we're still in wait-and-see mode, and the teenage outfielder still has the ceiling of a 30 homer bat with the ability to get on base and steal a few bags. Starting back at the top of the minors, 25 year olds Chris Shaw and Aramis Garcia, as well as 23 year old Abiatal Avelino, are looking to make an impact soon. Shaw probably has the best chance of the three, coming off a year where he slashed .259/.308/.505 with 24 home runs and a 144/21 strikeout to walk ratio across 101 games for AAA Sacramento. He didn't fare as well in 22 major league games (1 HR, .185/.274/.278), with big power and big strikeout concerns standing out. The Boston College product is limited defensively to the outfield and first base, so he'll have to make contact to stick in the majors, but he does have the upside of a 30 homer bat in the Lucas Duda or Matt Adams mold. Garcia, meanwhile, has been a prospect for a long time (he turns 26 in January) and as a catcher with Buster Posey currently manning the position and with Joey Bart breathing down his neck, Garcia's window of opportunity is fairly limited. In 2018, he slashed .233/.285/.381 with eleven home runs and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Richmond and Sacramento, then hit .286/.308/.492 with four home runs in a 19 game MLB debut. He's pretty much decent across the board, with no glaring weaknesses but no real strengths either; he has some pop, can usually make contact, and is good enough behind the plate, but it all amounts more to a back-up profile than a starting one. Avelino came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade and had a nice year, slashing .283/.329/.438 with 15 home runs between AA and AAA, but that power surge is looking more like a mirage and he looks like a utility infielder. Slightly farther down into the minors, 23 year old Heath Quinn and 20 year olds Jacob Gonzalez and Sandro Fabian lead the mid-minors pack behind Ramos. Quinn is older and has been a regular producer, fairing well in his second run at the High A California League by slashing .300/.376/.485 with 14 home runs and a 98/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 96 games. I like the power and I think he makes enough contact to where he could be a productive major league bat, but he has some tweener risk and could end up a fourth outfielder. Gonzalez too is a power hitter, though he struggles to make contact and slashed .227/.296/.331 with eight home runs at Class A Augusta this year. The power is for real and he probably has more of it than Quinn, but he gets to it much less often and I think he could end up being a bust. Fabian, however, has a different profile. His .200/.260/.325 slash line with ten home runs and a 107/26 strikeout to walk ratio was extremely underwhelming in the High A California League, but he did play the whole season at just 20 years old and was fairly young for the level. He's a good defender in the outfield who has spent his whole minor league career playing up with guys older than him, and the Giants are just waiting for that bat to pick up. I think his long term outlook is probably fairly similar to Quinn's with less power and better defense, but he'll just take a different road to get there as a young kid playing up with older players rather than an older prospect hitting well against younger competition. Lastly, 21 year old David Villar, 17 year old Marco Luciano, and 18 year old Alexander Canario round out the interesting prospects in the low minors. Villar, just drafted out of USF in the eleventh round in 2018, is off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .282/.342/.535 with 13 home runs and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between complex ball and Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has big power but his approach may be exploited as he moves up in the minors, and his bat will probably end up somewhere between Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw in a couple of years. He's not considered a top prospect but I think he's one to watch. Luciano and Canario are the farthest off from the majors, with Canario having played just 111 pro games, all in complex ball (slashing .275/.376/.438 with 11 HR and 26 SB) and Luciano yet to step on the pro diamond. Both have very high ceilings and could honestly be All Stars. Luciano generates his power from a wiry 6'2" frame and plenty of loft in his swing, though I can see contact being a potential concern once he gets into games. Meanwhile, Canario has less present power but more bat speed, and I think altering his swing mechanics to give him more loft and to get him more balanced at the plate can help him take off; he has already shown strong plate discipline against complex ball competition. Luciano is currently a shortstop but is more likely a third baseman in the future, while Canario is a speedy center fielder.
Arms We Could See in 2019: Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Garrett Williams, and Ray Black
The Giants do a good job of converting upper-minors pitching into useable major league arms, but recently they've struggled to convert them into much more than just that: useable (we'll see what happens with Dereck Rodriguez). Here is the next wave, and while all have breakthrough potential, they probably will end up along the lines of the current crop of recently graduated arms, which includes Andrew Suarez, Chris Stratton, Steven Okert, and Reyes Moronta in addition to Rodriguez. 24 year old Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston in the Eduardo Nunez deal, has since established himself as the system's top pitching prospect with a solid 2018. In 25 games (24 starts) between AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the 6'4" righty went 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 127/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 141.1 innings, adapting well to the upper minors by showing strong command of his pretty good stuff. He looks like a back-end starter right now, but he has the best chance on this list to be the first home-grown impact pitcher for the Giants since Hunter Strickland came up in 2014, and the first impact starter since Madison Bumgarner in 2009. 21 year old Logan Webb quietly had a very good season in 2018, going 2-5 with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 100/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings between High A San Jose and Richmond. The 6'2" righty is extremely raw after missing significant time with injuries, but his mid 90's fastball got him all the way up to AA this year at the age of 21 despite the missed time. The rest of his game needs significant work, but the Giants hope his 2018 breakthrough will lead to development in those areas. If not, he profiles as a middle reliever, but he's one to watch in 2019. 25 year old Tyler Beede was a first round pick (14th overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2014, and after rocketing up to AA by 2015 and pitching well at the level in 2016, he has stalled ever since. In 2018, he was 4-9 with a 6.64 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an 81/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings between Sacramento and rehab work, showing explosive stuff at times and flattening out at others. His fastball can sit anywhere in the 90's and the quality of his offspeeds are just as inconsistent, but his command has been getting worse. The Giants shifted him to the bullpen mid-season but the results weren't much better, and the clock is ticking; he'll be 26 in May. 24 year old Garrett Williams has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, missing significant time with injuries while at Oklahoma State and subsequently struggling with command in the minors. He had a 2.32 ERA and a 96/35 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose in 2017, but limped to a 6.06 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 73/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings with Richmond this season. He has an explosive fastball/curveball combination that gets plenty of swings and misses, but he can't seem to throw strikes. The 6'1" lefty was converted to relief midway through the season, where like Beede he still didn't find success, and I think he's better suited there. I still like Williams and think he could take a step forward and become a useful reliever in the majors, especially given how volatile he has been throughout his career; 2018 could end up being the aberration rather than 2017. Lastly, 28 year old Ray Black is an interesting one, as you would expect from a 28 year old that I still choose to write about. Injuries have kept him off the mound for long periods of time, and he didn't even through his first professional pitch until he was almost 24. Now, he is armed with an exceptional fastball that sits in the upper 90's and has hit 104 in the past, leading to a 2.52 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over just 35.2 innings between Richmond and Sacramento; that's a 48.5% strikeout rate. He had a 6.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 33/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings in the majors (34.7% strikeout rate), and he profiles as an extremely interesting middle reliever.
Projection Arms: Melvin Adon, Sean Hjelle, Juan De Paula, Seth Corry, Gregory Santos, and Jake Wong
Again, there is not much depth, but the Giants do have a couple of interesting arms down lower on the farm. 24 year old Melvin Adon, who won't reach the majors in 2019 and therefore doesn't quite fit on the previous list, is the most advanced in this section. He ran into some trouble with High A San Jose in 2018, going 2-6 with a 5.03 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, but he has recently been strong in the Arizona Fall League. The Giants have tried to develop him as a starter, but after 2018 he looks more like a power reliever with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider. 21 year old Sean Hjelle, drafted in the second round (45th overall) out of Kentucky in 2018, might be the safest bet in this whole group, finishing his pro debut with a 5.06 ERA but a nice 22/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings at Short Season Salem-Keizer. At 6'11", he is a massive string bean that comes at hitters on a steep downhill plane with a low 90's fastball and a good curveball, with his overall game plan resembling Chris Young more than it does Randy Johnson. He looks like a very tall back-end starter at this point but could move quickly. 21 year old Juan De Paula came over from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen deal, and while the Yankees moved him along slowly, the Giants might choose to speed that up. De Paula posted a 1.72 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings between the Yankees' Short Season affiliate and one very good start with the Giants' Class A Augusta. He comes with high risk as a low minors pitcher who has never cracked 80 innings in a season, but there is a lot of upside to unlock and he might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Giants' system. Look for anything from an A-ball flameout to an impact starter. 20 year old Seth Corry might be in a similar spot to De Paula, though he's a lefty with less of a track record. Corry was sharp in 38 innings in complex ball (2.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB) but struggled in 19.2 innings in Short Season ball (5.49 ERA, 17/15 K/BB). His best attribute is an explosive curveball, but he needs to throw more strikes and has a lot of development to go through. I'd argue that his ceiling and floor are both slightly lower than that of De Paula. Meanwhile, 19 year old Gregory Santos spent the whole season in Short Season ball and put up a 4.53 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 46/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. He has a good combination of stuff and control for his age, but he just needs to learn to put it together. He keeps the ball on the ground remarkably well, and he could move up as a back-end starter. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Wong was drafted after Hjelle in the third round in 2018 (80th overall), then posted a 2.30 ERA and a 27/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 Short Season innings in his debut. The initial returns are promising for Wong, though I ultimately think he ends up in the bullpen with an underwhelming stuff/command package for his age.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta Green Jackets, Short Season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL (Orange and Black) and DSL Giants
The Headliner: C Joey Bart
Sometimes, things just work out, as was the case with 21 year old Joey Bart and the Giants. Pablo Sandoval's season ending, walk off home run in 2017 may have given the Tigers the first overall pick, and while Casey Mize would have been nice, Bart just fits perfectly into the Giants' plans. He'll be ready to take over at catcher just as Buster Posey is transitioned to a new position. Bart had a monster year at Georgia Tech this year, and after being selected second overall, he slashed .294/.364/.588 with 13 home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games, mostly with Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has huge power, some of the best in the minors, though his plate discipline is relatively mediocre and contact may be a concern at the higher levels. He has worked hard to improve his defense and has a cannon behind the plate, and overall the package resembles Gary Sanchez. At the least, I expect Bart to at least be something of a Mike Zunino to the Giants, but honestly I think he'll iron out the contact issues and become and All Star. Look for him to start 2019 at Class A Augusta, but he'll likely be at High A San Jose sooner rather than later if he doesn't start there outright.
The Rest of the Hitters: OF Heliot Ramos, OF Chris Shaw, C Aramis Garcia, SS Abiatal Avelino, OF Heath Quinn, 3B Jacob Gonzalez, OF Sandro Fabian, 3B David Villar, SS Marco Luciano, and OF Alexander Canario
The Giants are not deep when it comes to minor league hitters, especially after headliner Joey Bart, so I decided to lump the rest of the interesting ones into one long section. There's one or two interesting bats in each phase of development for the Giants, and while the wealth is nice and spread out from top to bottom of the development ladder, there are really only two "impact" prospects on this list. 19 year old Heliot Ramos is the consensus #2 prospect in this system, right behind Bart, and may have the highest ceiling out of anyone. He was drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Puerto Rico in 2017, showcasing huge power and some good speed despite being extremely young for the draft class. Playing all of 2018 at just 18 years old, he slashed .245/.313/.396 with eleven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Augusta. While those numbers aren't exactly inspiring, he was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League and he has plenty of time to develop. The stock isn't up from when he was drafted, but it's not really down either; we're still in wait-and-see mode, and the teenage outfielder still has the ceiling of a 30 homer bat with the ability to get on base and steal a few bags. Starting back at the top of the minors, 25 year olds Chris Shaw and Aramis Garcia, as well as 23 year old Abiatal Avelino, are looking to make an impact soon. Shaw probably has the best chance of the three, coming off a year where he slashed .259/.308/.505 with 24 home runs and a 144/21 strikeout to walk ratio across 101 games for AAA Sacramento. He didn't fare as well in 22 major league games (1 HR, .185/.274/.278), with big power and big strikeout concerns standing out. The Boston College product is limited defensively to the outfield and first base, so he'll have to make contact to stick in the majors, but he does have the upside of a 30 homer bat in the Lucas Duda or Matt Adams mold. Garcia, meanwhile, has been a prospect for a long time (he turns 26 in January) and as a catcher with Buster Posey currently manning the position and with Joey Bart breathing down his neck, Garcia's window of opportunity is fairly limited. In 2018, he slashed .233/.285/.381 with eleven home runs and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Richmond and Sacramento, then hit .286/.308/.492 with four home runs in a 19 game MLB debut. He's pretty much decent across the board, with no glaring weaknesses but no real strengths either; he has some pop, can usually make contact, and is good enough behind the plate, but it all amounts more to a back-up profile than a starting one. Avelino came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade and had a nice year, slashing .283/.329/.438 with 15 home runs between AA and AAA, but that power surge is looking more like a mirage and he looks like a utility infielder. Slightly farther down into the minors, 23 year old Heath Quinn and 20 year olds Jacob Gonzalez and Sandro Fabian lead the mid-minors pack behind Ramos. Quinn is older and has been a regular producer, fairing well in his second run at the High A California League by slashing .300/.376/.485 with 14 home runs and a 98/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 96 games. I like the power and I think he makes enough contact to where he could be a productive major league bat, but he has some tweener risk and could end up a fourth outfielder. Gonzalez too is a power hitter, though he struggles to make contact and slashed .227/.296/.331 with eight home runs at Class A Augusta this year. The power is for real and he probably has more of it than Quinn, but he gets to it much less often and I think he could end up being a bust. Fabian, however, has a different profile. His .200/.260/.325 slash line with ten home runs and a 107/26 strikeout to walk ratio was extremely underwhelming in the High A California League, but he did play the whole season at just 20 years old and was fairly young for the level. He's a good defender in the outfield who has spent his whole minor league career playing up with guys older than him, and the Giants are just waiting for that bat to pick up. I think his long term outlook is probably fairly similar to Quinn's with less power and better defense, but he'll just take a different road to get there as a young kid playing up with older players rather than an older prospect hitting well against younger competition. Lastly, 21 year old David Villar, 17 year old Marco Luciano, and 18 year old Alexander Canario round out the interesting prospects in the low minors. Villar, just drafted out of USF in the eleventh round in 2018, is off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .282/.342/.535 with 13 home runs and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between complex ball and Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has big power but his approach may be exploited as he moves up in the minors, and his bat will probably end up somewhere between Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw in a couple of years. He's not considered a top prospect but I think he's one to watch. Luciano and Canario are the farthest off from the majors, with Canario having played just 111 pro games, all in complex ball (slashing .275/.376/.438 with 11 HR and 26 SB) and Luciano yet to step on the pro diamond. Both have very high ceilings and could honestly be All Stars. Luciano generates his power from a wiry 6'2" frame and plenty of loft in his swing, though I can see contact being a potential concern once he gets into games. Meanwhile, Canario has less present power but more bat speed, and I think altering his swing mechanics to give him more loft and to get him more balanced at the plate can help him take off; he has already shown strong plate discipline against complex ball competition. Luciano is currently a shortstop but is more likely a third baseman in the future, while Canario is a speedy center fielder.
Arms We Could See in 2019: Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Garrett Williams, and Ray Black
The Giants do a good job of converting upper-minors pitching into useable major league arms, but recently they've struggled to convert them into much more than just that: useable (we'll see what happens with Dereck Rodriguez). Here is the next wave, and while all have breakthrough potential, they probably will end up along the lines of the current crop of recently graduated arms, which includes Andrew Suarez, Chris Stratton, Steven Okert, and Reyes Moronta in addition to Rodriguez. 24 year old Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston in the Eduardo Nunez deal, has since established himself as the system's top pitching prospect with a solid 2018. In 25 games (24 starts) between AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the 6'4" righty went 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 127/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 141.1 innings, adapting well to the upper minors by showing strong command of his pretty good stuff. He looks like a back-end starter right now, but he has the best chance on this list to be the first home-grown impact pitcher for the Giants since Hunter Strickland came up in 2014, and the first impact starter since Madison Bumgarner in 2009. 21 year old Logan Webb quietly had a very good season in 2018, going 2-5 with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 100/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings between High A San Jose and Richmond. The 6'2" righty is extremely raw after missing significant time with injuries, but his mid 90's fastball got him all the way up to AA this year at the age of 21 despite the missed time. The rest of his game needs significant work, but the Giants hope his 2018 breakthrough will lead to development in those areas. If not, he profiles as a middle reliever, but he's one to watch in 2019. 25 year old Tyler Beede was a first round pick (14th overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2014, and after rocketing up to AA by 2015 and pitching well at the level in 2016, he has stalled ever since. In 2018, he was 4-9 with a 6.64 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an 81/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings between Sacramento and rehab work, showing explosive stuff at times and flattening out at others. His fastball can sit anywhere in the 90's and the quality of his offspeeds are just as inconsistent, but his command has been getting worse. The Giants shifted him to the bullpen mid-season but the results weren't much better, and the clock is ticking; he'll be 26 in May. 24 year old Garrett Williams has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, missing significant time with injuries while at Oklahoma State and subsequently struggling with command in the minors. He had a 2.32 ERA and a 96/35 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose in 2017, but limped to a 6.06 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 73/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings with Richmond this season. He has an explosive fastball/curveball combination that gets plenty of swings and misses, but he can't seem to throw strikes. The 6'1" lefty was converted to relief midway through the season, where like Beede he still didn't find success, and I think he's better suited there. I still like Williams and think he could take a step forward and become a useful reliever in the majors, especially given how volatile he has been throughout his career; 2018 could end up being the aberration rather than 2017. Lastly, 28 year old Ray Black is an interesting one, as you would expect from a 28 year old that I still choose to write about. Injuries have kept him off the mound for long periods of time, and he didn't even through his first professional pitch until he was almost 24. Now, he is armed with an exceptional fastball that sits in the upper 90's and has hit 104 in the past, leading to a 2.52 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over just 35.2 innings between Richmond and Sacramento; that's a 48.5% strikeout rate. He had a 6.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 33/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings in the majors (34.7% strikeout rate), and he profiles as an extremely interesting middle reliever.
Projection Arms: Melvin Adon, Sean Hjelle, Juan De Paula, Seth Corry, Gregory Santos, and Jake Wong
Again, there is not much depth, but the Giants do have a couple of interesting arms down lower on the farm. 24 year old Melvin Adon, who won't reach the majors in 2019 and therefore doesn't quite fit on the previous list, is the most advanced in this section. He ran into some trouble with High A San Jose in 2018, going 2-6 with a 5.03 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, but he has recently been strong in the Arizona Fall League. The Giants have tried to develop him as a starter, but after 2018 he looks more like a power reliever with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider. 21 year old Sean Hjelle, drafted in the second round (45th overall) out of Kentucky in 2018, might be the safest bet in this whole group, finishing his pro debut with a 5.06 ERA but a nice 22/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings at Short Season Salem-Keizer. At 6'11", he is a massive string bean that comes at hitters on a steep downhill plane with a low 90's fastball and a good curveball, with his overall game plan resembling Chris Young more than it does Randy Johnson. He looks like a very tall back-end starter at this point but could move quickly. 21 year old Juan De Paula came over from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen deal, and while the Yankees moved him along slowly, the Giants might choose to speed that up. De Paula posted a 1.72 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings between the Yankees' Short Season affiliate and one very good start with the Giants' Class A Augusta. He comes with high risk as a low minors pitcher who has never cracked 80 innings in a season, but there is a lot of upside to unlock and he might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Giants' system. Look for anything from an A-ball flameout to an impact starter. 20 year old Seth Corry might be in a similar spot to De Paula, though he's a lefty with less of a track record. Corry was sharp in 38 innings in complex ball (2.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB) but struggled in 19.2 innings in Short Season ball (5.49 ERA, 17/15 K/BB). His best attribute is an explosive curveball, but he needs to throw more strikes and has a lot of development to go through. I'd argue that his ceiling and floor are both slightly lower than that of De Paula. Meanwhile, 19 year old Gregory Santos spent the whole season in Short Season ball and put up a 4.53 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 46/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. He has a good combination of stuff and control for his age, but he just needs to learn to put it together. He keeps the ball on the ground remarkably well, and he could move up as a back-end starter. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Wong was drafted after Hjelle in the third round in 2018 (80th overall), then posted a 2.30 ERA and a 27/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 Short Season innings in his debut. The initial returns are promising for Wong, though I ultimately think he ends up in the bullpen with an underwhelming stuff/command package for his age.
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
2018 Draft Review: San Francisco Giants
First 5 rounds: Joey Bart (1-2), Sean Hjelle (2-45), Jake Wong (3-80), Blake Rivera (4-106), Keaton Winn (5-136)
Also notable: Patrick Hilson (6-166), David Villar (11-316), Matt Frisbee (15-436)
Although Pablo Sandoval hit the most unfortunate walk-off home run in Giants history to knock them out of getting the first overall pick, the Giants still got away with a fantastic selection in Joey Bart second overall. However, I think the rest of the draft is just decent, and while Bart is great, the farm system won't get as much of a jolt as perhaps it could have. This was a pitching-heavy draft that saw them take arms with four straight picks after the Bart selection, and many of the pitchers are more about upside than floor. Interesting side note: the Giants didn't draft a single left handed hitter or thrower until Bryce Tucker in the 14th round, then went until the Jacob Lopez in the 26th round before they drafted another (not counting switch hitting, right handed throwing 20th rounder Jett Manning).
1-2: C Joey Bart (my rank: 4)
I had Brady Singer and Matthew Liberatore ranked ahead of Bart, but not by much, and I absolutely won't fault the Giants for taking a guy with both an exceptional bat and high defensive value. The last time the Giants took a performing college catcher with a high pick, Florida State's Buster Posey turned out alright and caught for three World Series championships. Joey Bart, who like Posey grew up in Georgia, had a huge junior season at Georgia Tech, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs and a 56/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He showed huge raw power with some long, long home runs, and he also cut his strikeout rate from 24% as a sophomore to 20.6% as a junior while bumping up his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is great, but when he coupled it with that improved plate discipline that had been a major sticking point for him, it shot him up draft boards. The strikeout rate is still high and is probably his biggest weakness, and it could be drawn from the fact that he is fairly slow in getting his hands going. Once they're going though, it's a clean swing with plenty of loft and power. On defense, he has evolved from a fringy receiver to one who could not only stick behind the plate but excel there, showing a great arm, good receiving and blocking skills, and all of the leadership qualities and intangibles that come with being a catcher. If he can cut his strikeout rates further, he could be the next Buster Posey. He signed for just over $7 million, coming in at $469,600 below slot. He began his pro career in the rookie level Arizona League, where he slashed .261/.320/.391 with a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games, but he really took off upon a promotion to the short season Northwest League, slashing .310/.356/.857 with seven home runs and a 10/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 10 games.
2-45: RHP Sean Hjelle (my rank: 46)
Hjelle (pronounced "jelly") was considered a fringe-first round pick at the outset of the season, and while he didn't take any steps backward, he fell back a few spots in the draft because he didn't really take a step forward either. The Kentucky ace, finished his junior year 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings for the Wildcats. The first thing you notice about Hjelle is his size; at 6'11", he'll tie Jon Rauch for the tallest player in major league history if he gets that far, and at just 225 pounds, he's a string bean. Despite his size, he's very athletic and coordinated, and he commands his pitches well too. The stuff is nothing really special on its own, as his fastball sits in the low 90's, the curveball shows good break and sharpness, and the changeup is just good, but it all plays up because it seems like he's letting go of the ball right in front of you with those long arms. His height also creates good downhill plane, and because he can command it all, he gets his share of swings and misses. He projects as a #4 starter, and while there is always the durability risk for skyscrapers like Hjelle, he has been durable so far and is more like Chris Young than Randy Johnson in that he gets by on pitchability rather than stuff. He signed for $1.5 million, which is $87,600 below slot, and he has allowed one run on four hits and no walks through four innings in the Northwest League, striking out two.
3-80: RHP Jake Wong (my rank: 101)
Wong is a right handed pitcher out of Grand Canyon University who had a breakout year this year, going 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 88/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. That came on the heels of a very strong Cape Cod League performance, albeit as a reliever, where he posted a 2.66 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 22/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings last summer. The 6'2" hurler sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, though the rest of his game needs work. His slider is good when it's on but it can also flatten out at times, and his changeup is also good-not-great. While a lot of guys can make an arsenal like that play up with other factors, Wong lacks deception and has average command, leading me to think he'd be better off in the bullpen where his fastball could sit in the mid 90's and his slider could sharpen. If developed right, though, he does have mid-rotation upside. He signed for $850,000, which is $111,300 above slot, and he has allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts through 5.1 innings in the Northwest League.
4-106: RHP Blake Rivera (unranked)
Rivera was the last one out of my rankings, coming in at #111 before I cut the list off at 110. I couldn't find any video on him either before or after the draft, but he's a 6'4" right handed pitcher out of Wallace State Community College in Alabama, the same school that produced Craig Kimbrel. Rivera has high upside, as he throws his fastball in the low 90's while also showing a very good curveball. His changeup is a bit behind, as is his control, but he does have a smooth delivery and scouts think they can improve that control. There is plenty of arm strength here and if he can get more consistent, he does have a chance to start. He signed for $800,000, which is $271,800 over slot, and he has allowed two runs (one earned) on one hit and three walks over 3.1 innings in the Northwest League, striking out three.
Others: 5th rounder Keaton Winn is another 6'4" JuCo right handed pitcher, coming from Iowa Western Community College. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Rivera, sitting closer to 90 with his running fastball, and his slider has good break down and away from righties. While his stuff isn't quite as electric as Rivera's, he does have a better chance to start with a fairly easy delivery, though he'll have to add a changeup to do so. 6th rounder Patrick Hilson is an outfielder from high school out in Jonesboro, Arkansas, showing some athleticism and power despite being just 5'10". He's understandably raw, coming from a less traditional baseball area in the Mississippi Delta, but he has some upside. 11th rounder David Villar got better and better with each of his three seasons at the University of South Florida, finishing it off this year by slashing .374/.463/.648 with 12 home runs and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. While he features big power and plenty of loud contact from the right side of the plate, he also strikes out a fair amount (21.5% this year), and he'll have to prove he can translate his success to the pros. As of now, he's a third baseman, and he has a shot at sticking there. If he can make the necessary adjustments at the plate and acclimate his bat to pro pitching, he could be a steal in the eleventh round. 15th rounder Matt Frisbee will be great at selling jerseys if he makes it to the majors (though probably not as great as Seth Beer or Travis Swaggerty), coming from UNC-Greensboro. This year, he went 10-2 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 116 and walking just 23 in 91 innings for a surprisingly good Spartans team. The 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's but can hit 97 in short spurts and still command it, though he'll need to work on his secondaries to cut it in pro ball. He's likely a reliever.
Also notable: Patrick Hilson (6-166), David Villar (11-316), Matt Frisbee (15-436)
Although Pablo Sandoval hit the most unfortunate walk-off home run in Giants history to knock them out of getting the first overall pick, the Giants still got away with a fantastic selection in Joey Bart second overall. However, I think the rest of the draft is just decent, and while Bart is great, the farm system won't get as much of a jolt as perhaps it could have. This was a pitching-heavy draft that saw them take arms with four straight picks after the Bart selection, and many of the pitchers are more about upside than floor. Interesting side note: the Giants didn't draft a single left handed hitter or thrower until Bryce Tucker in the 14th round, then went until the Jacob Lopez in the 26th round before they drafted another (not counting switch hitting, right handed throwing 20th rounder Jett Manning).
1-2: C Joey Bart (my rank: 4)
I had Brady Singer and Matthew Liberatore ranked ahead of Bart, but not by much, and I absolutely won't fault the Giants for taking a guy with both an exceptional bat and high defensive value. The last time the Giants took a performing college catcher with a high pick, Florida State's Buster Posey turned out alright and caught for three World Series championships. Joey Bart, who like Posey grew up in Georgia, had a huge junior season at Georgia Tech, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs and a 56/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He showed huge raw power with some long, long home runs, and he also cut his strikeout rate from 24% as a sophomore to 20.6% as a junior while bumping up his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is great, but when he coupled it with that improved plate discipline that had been a major sticking point for him, it shot him up draft boards. The strikeout rate is still high and is probably his biggest weakness, and it could be drawn from the fact that he is fairly slow in getting his hands going. Once they're going though, it's a clean swing with plenty of loft and power. On defense, he has evolved from a fringy receiver to one who could not only stick behind the plate but excel there, showing a great arm, good receiving and blocking skills, and all of the leadership qualities and intangibles that come with being a catcher. If he can cut his strikeout rates further, he could be the next Buster Posey. He signed for just over $7 million, coming in at $469,600 below slot. He began his pro career in the rookie level Arizona League, where he slashed .261/.320/.391 with a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games, but he really took off upon a promotion to the short season Northwest League, slashing .310/.356/.857 with seven home runs and a 10/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 10 games.
2-45: RHP Sean Hjelle (my rank: 46)
Hjelle (pronounced "jelly") was considered a fringe-first round pick at the outset of the season, and while he didn't take any steps backward, he fell back a few spots in the draft because he didn't really take a step forward either. The Kentucky ace, finished his junior year 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings for the Wildcats. The first thing you notice about Hjelle is his size; at 6'11", he'll tie Jon Rauch for the tallest player in major league history if he gets that far, and at just 225 pounds, he's a string bean. Despite his size, he's very athletic and coordinated, and he commands his pitches well too. The stuff is nothing really special on its own, as his fastball sits in the low 90's, the curveball shows good break and sharpness, and the changeup is just good, but it all plays up because it seems like he's letting go of the ball right in front of you with those long arms. His height also creates good downhill plane, and because he can command it all, he gets his share of swings and misses. He projects as a #4 starter, and while there is always the durability risk for skyscrapers like Hjelle, he has been durable so far and is more like Chris Young than Randy Johnson in that he gets by on pitchability rather than stuff. He signed for $1.5 million, which is $87,600 below slot, and he has allowed one run on four hits and no walks through four innings in the Northwest League, striking out two.
3-80: RHP Jake Wong (my rank: 101)
Wong is a right handed pitcher out of Grand Canyon University who had a breakout year this year, going 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 88/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. That came on the heels of a very strong Cape Cod League performance, albeit as a reliever, where he posted a 2.66 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 22/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings last summer. The 6'2" hurler sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, though the rest of his game needs work. His slider is good when it's on but it can also flatten out at times, and his changeup is also good-not-great. While a lot of guys can make an arsenal like that play up with other factors, Wong lacks deception and has average command, leading me to think he'd be better off in the bullpen where his fastball could sit in the mid 90's and his slider could sharpen. If developed right, though, he does have mid-rotation upside. He signed for $850,000, which is $111,300 above slot, and he has allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts through 5.1 innings in the Northwest League.
4-106: RHP Blake Rivera (unranked)
Rivera was the last one out of my rankings, coming in at #111 before I cut the list off at 110. I couldn't find any video on him either before or after the draft, but he's a 6'4" right handed pitcher out of Wallace State Community College in Alabama, the same school that produced Craig Kimbrel. Rivera has high upside, as he throws his fastball in the low 90's while also showing a very good curveball. His changeup is a bit behind, as is his control, but he does have a smooth delivery and scouts think they can improve that control. There is plenty of arm strength here and if he can get more consistent, he does have a chance to start. He signed for $800,000, which is $271,800 over slot, and he has allowed two runs (one earned) on one hit and three walks over 3.1 innings in the Northwest League, striking out three.
Others: 5th rounder Keaton Winn is another 6'4" JuCo right handed pitcher, coming from Iowa Western Community College. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Rivera, sitting closer to 90 with his running fastball, and his slider has good break down and away from righties. While his stuff isn't quite as electric as Rivera's, he does have a better chance to start with a fairly easy delivery, though he'll have to add a changeup to do so. 6th rounder Patrick Hilson is an outfielder from high school out in Jonesboro, Arkansas, showing some athleticism and power despite being just 5'10". He's understandably raw, coming from a less traditional baseball area in the Mississippi Delta, but he has some upside. 11th rounder David Villar got better and better with each of his three seasons at the University of South Florida, finishing it off this year by slashing .374/.463/.648 with 12 home runs and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. While he features big power and plenty of loud contact from the right side of the plate, he also strikes out a fair amount (21.5% this year), and he'll have to prove he can translate his success to the pros. As of now, he's a third baseman, and he has a shot at sticking there. If he can make the necessary adjustments at the plate and acclimate his bat to pro pitching, he could be a steal in the eleventh round. 15th rounder Matt Frisbee will be great at selling jerseys if he makes it to the majors (though probably not as great as Seth Beer or Travis Swaggerty), coming from UNC-Greensboro. This year, he went 10-2 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 116 and walking just 23 in 91 innings for a surprisingly good Spartans team. The 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's but can hit 97 in short spurts and still command it, though he'll need to work on his secondaries to cut it in pro ball. He's likely a reliever.
Monday, June 4, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 College RHP's
College right handers are always popular on draft day, as they are often close to finished products and can get to the major leagues pretty quickly. Casey Mize is all but certain to go first overall, and four of these guys will almost certainly go in the first round. Five of the first seven guys on this list come from the SEC, which isn't surprising when you realize that Max Scherzer (Missouri), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt), Aaron Nola (LSU), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), Lance Lynn (Ole Miss), and plenty more were all SEC right handers.
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.
2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.
3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.
4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.
5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.
6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.
7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.
8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.
9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.
10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.
Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)
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