Sunday, July 31, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

Full list of draftees

The Red Sox put together a high school-heavy draft class, committing over $6.5 million to Mikey Romero, Cutter Coffey, and Roman Anthony in the first three rounds. Of the three, Anthony actually got the largest bonus despite being the third pick, and they also went well above slot value to grab North Carolina high school catcher Brooks Brannon in the ninth round. Aside from those four prep bats, it was a class heavy on college pitching with just one college bat (fourth rounder Chase Meidroth) and zero high school pitchers finding their way into the Red Sox' class. Most of the college arms here have serious relief questions but also come with interesting upside if their player development system gets it right.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-24: SS Mikey Romero, Orange Lutheran HS [CA]. My rank: #58.
Slot value: $2.98 million. Signing bonus: $2.30 million ($676,400 below slot value).
For the third year in a row, the Red Sox' first round pick is a California high school middle infielder following Nick Yorke in 2020 and Marcelo Mayer in 2021. The Romero pick has some similarities to the Yorke pick, as a hit-over-power shortstop that was projected to go more in the second to third round range than the first. That Yorke pick is looking pretty good so far, so hopes are high for this one. Though he bats left handed, Romero reminds me a little bit of Anthony Volpe out of high school as well as a hit-over-power, strong makeup middle infielder that stands out more for that work ethic than inherent physicality. Scouts universally praise Romero as a team guy that you want on your side, one who will take extremely well to the minor league grind and put in the effort to become the best he can be. He's a very polished hitter that takes great at bats and has a good track record of hitting against quality pitching, using a quick, simple left handed swing to spray line drives around the field with consistency. His stock did take a slight hit when he didn't perform up to expectations at a couple of big events this spring, but the Red Sox clearly see that as unlucky timing rather than any indication of his future on the diamond and he's otherwise been as consistent as anybody. The Southern California native does not project for a ton of power with a skinny 6'1" frame and a line drive approach, looking more like a 10-15 home run bat that relies on high on-base percentages to provide value. He was drafted as a shortstop and will get an opportunity to work there in pro ball with good range and a good arm, but he won't unseat Marcelo Mayer at the position as he's not the most explosive athlete and may be better suited for second base, where he could be a plus defender. Should Mayer and Yorke both reach the majors and take over the double play combination, you could also try him at third base where he'll have just enough arm and plenty of range. This turned out to be a money saving pick, as Boston plucked Romero away from an LSU commitment earlier than many thought he would be drafted.

2-41: SS Cutter Coffey, Liberty HS [CA]. My rank: #75.
Slot value: $1.91 million. Signing bonus: $1.85 million ($56,500 below slot value).
If you're a high school shortstop somewhere in California, the Red Sox probably have you on speed dial. Cutter Coffey makes it two in a row, having been drafted as a shortstop despite garnering significant interest on the mound. If Mikey Romero reminds me of Anthony Volpe, then Coffey reminds me of Masyn Winn and not just because he's a two-way guy. He's a very quick mover with a lightning quick, powerful right handed swing that could produce above average power as he gets stronger and adds weight to his skinny 6'2" frame. The hit tool can be a bit inconsistent as he can get into and out of the hitting zone quickly at times, with a tendency to pull off pitches when he doesn't stay within himself. Still, he shows good hand eye coordination in the box and as the Red Sox' player development system refines his approach a little bit, he could be an all-around threat in the box. His pitching background is evident at shortstop, where he shows off an easy plus arm that particularly comes in handy on plays to his right, and overall he shows good feel for the position and should be able to stick, though the Red Sox do have a ton of young middle infielders in their system. On the mound, the Bakersfield native shows a quick arm that produces a low 90's fastball, a slider that flashes above average, and a very solid changeup, providing a fallback option if hitting doesn't work out. I love the way Coffey moves on the diamond and I believe he's just scratching the surface of what he can be, especially considering he only turned 18 in May, but he may take a little longer to develop. He had previously been committed to Texas.

2C-79: OF Roman Anthony, Stoneman Douglas HS [FL]. My rank: #59.
Slot value: $820,400. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.68 million above slot value).
Boston went below slot value on nine of their eleven picks in the top ten rounds, and but dished out their largest signing bonus of the class to their third pick, Florida high school outfielder Roman Anthony. He was one of the country's hotter spring risers, and now he'll carry on a tradition the Red Sox love almost as much as drafting infielders out of California: drafting power bats out of Florida. In that regard, he'll follow in the footsteps of Triston Casas, Wil Dalton, Jud Fabian, and Nathan Hickey. Anthony was very inconsistent over the summer, when he swung and missed a lot and couldn't always tap his power in games, but the spring was a different story. He came out of the gate red hot and proved to be arguably the best hitter in South Florida, showing off that plus raw power in games with an ideal left handed swing and a big, strong, 6'3" frame. Combine that plus power with what could become an average or better hit tool and you have a real middle of the order bat to plug into the system. In the field, Anthony runs well for a big guy and with a plus arm, profiles very favorably in right field. That giant bonus went to buying him out of a Mississippi commitment, where he could have replaced Tim Elko as the next big power hitter in Oxford.

3-99: LHP Dalton Rogers, Southern Mississippi. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $617,500. Signing bonus: $447,500 ($170,000 below slot value).
For their first pitcher of the draft, the Red Sox went down to the Deep South to grab Southern Miss lefty Dalton Rogers. He originally pitched for Southeastern Louisiana in 2020 before transferring to Jones County JC in Mississippi in 2021, then found his home at Southern Miss in 2022 to raise his profile. Pitching out of the bullpen on a loaded squad that included potential 2023 first rounders Hurston Waldrep (now with Florida) and Tanner Hall, he put up a 1.95 ERA and a 57/23 strikeout to walk ratio across 37 innings, often going two or three innings at a time. Rogers is all about the fastball, sitting in the low to mid 90's with the pitch and getting some "invisiball" action on it due to its low release and impressive carry. He also throws a slider and a changeup, the former of which shows some nice sweep and depth but needs to add power and the latter of which offers a nice change of pace. The Jackson-area native sometimes struggles to repeat his release point and therefore has below average command, which combined with the fringy secondaries will likely keep him in the bullpen in pro ball. The Red Sox will want to work on tightening up that breaking ball for him and getting him more consistent with that release point, so that he doesn't have to rely on the predictable formula of landing the fastball for strikes and eliciting chases with his offspeed stuff.

4-129: SS Chase Meidroth, San Diego. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $461,200. Signing bonus: $272,500 ($188,700 below slot value).
There aren't many secrets in Chase Meidroth's profile. He was a breakout star at San Diego this spring, where he slashed .329/.440/.544 with ten home runs and an excellent 25/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, despite having entered the season with just eight hits over his first two years with the Toreros. Meidroth is a smaller kid at 5'10" with a contact-oriented approach, just flinging the barrel at the ball with a simple swing that produces line drive contact all over the field. It works, as the Southern California native recognizes pitches extremely well and doesn't expand the zone, leading to just a 9.1% strikeout rate compared to a strong 14.5% walk rate. He shows some pull side power when he turns on the ball, but that's not really his game and he won't approach the .544 slugging percentage he produced this year at San Diego in pro ball. He doesn't lift the ball well when he's not actively trying too, and at the major league level he's probably more of a 5-10 home run guy with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he's likely not physical enough for shortstop but has just enough arm for third base and just enough range for second base, making it a utility infield profile that can handle shortstop in a pinch.

5-159: LHP Noah Dean, Old Dominion. My rank: #188.
Slot value: $344,000. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
In Noah Dean, the Red Sox are getting some of the loudest stuff in the class, but they're going to have to help him learn to control it. Dean had an odd season – overall, his 4.15 ERA and 46/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings look like about what you'd expect from a fifth round reliever, but there's more to it. From April 9th to the 30th, he went through an awful stretch where he allowed twelve earned runs in 5.2 innings, striking out twelve but allowing seven walks and ten hits along the way. Take that four outing stretch out and his season numbers look infinitely better: 20.1 innings, zero runs, just three hits, and nine walks to 34 strikeouts. When he's on, which was most of the season to be quite honest, he's untouchable. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and has been up to triple digits at times, with explosive life that makes it one of the best left handed heaters in the class. He has a big, deep slider with hard bite that gives him an above average secondary weapon, and the two work really well in tandem. However, command has been the big question for the southern Jersey Shore product, as even when he's going well, he's struggled to locate and at worst he can completely lose the zone. On top of that, there's a big durability question mark. MLB relievers are often expected to pitch two or three days in a row, but Dean only once this year pitched on fewer than two days rest (and walked two of the three batters he faced that day) and never put together three appearances in a span of anything less than eight days. The 6'2" lefty will need to get a lot stronger just to work as a reliever, so starting is pretty much out of the question here. It's a high risk pick, but the stuff is absolutely electric and if the Red Sox do get it right, he could be a late inning relief weapon in Boston.

9-279: C Brooks Brannon, Randleman HS [NC]. My rank: #108.
Slot value: $158,200. Signing bonus: $712,500 ($554,300 above slot value).
I mentioned that Roman Anthony received one of just two big over slot bonuses from the Red Sox, and Brooks Brannon got the other. Like Anthony, he did not make much of a name for himself until this spring, when he turned in a fantastic season at Randleman High School and broke numerous North Carolina state records. Brannon brings huge power from the right side, working from a very strong, compact 6' frame and a powerful hack designed to lift the ball with authority. He didn't face the strongest competition in rural central North Carolina, but he did everything he could have against the pitching he did see and tapped his power extremely consistently this spring. Defensively, he's not quite nimble enough to catch long term, but the Red Sox could choose to be patient and see what happens once he gets on a pro conditioning regimen. He does have a very good arm behind the plate, which could help earn that patience. If he does eventually move off (I think he will), he's not a great runner and would be a below average defender in an outfield corner so first base may be the other option. The Red Sox are buying a big time bat that is unproven against higher level pitching but that has done everything he has needed to do so far. The expensive bonus signed him away from a UNC commitment.

12-369: LHP Hayden Mullins, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely around $125K.
Hayden Mullins was a big name recruit when he landed on campus at Auburn, and while he's never quite reached the ceiling some were hoping for, he's been pretty effective for that pitching staff. After relieving over his first two seasons, he got a chance to start in 2022 and pitched to a 3.63 ERA and a 43/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings. Unfortunately, that season was cut short by an elbow injury in April and I believe that led to Tommy John surgery. He has a live arm with a low 90's fastball, a big slider that flashes above average, and a solid changeup, an arsenal that worked well for him in a starting role. At this point, though, it's hard to envision him as a starter in pro ball due to his size (skinny 6'), high effort delivery that features a big leg kick and high hand raise reminiscent of MacKenzie Gore, below average command, and serious durability questions. Once he gets healthy, though, the Nashville-area native could be a very solid reliever with a three pitch mix from the left side, and hopefully it would all tick up in those short stints.

13-399: SS Gavin Kilen, Milton HS [WI]. My rank: #85.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
The Red Sox can only offer Gavin Kilen about $150,000 to sign, which he certainly won't take so he's likely heading to Louisville. A second to fourth round talent, he could be an immediate contributor for the Cardinals upon reaching campus and emerge a top fifty pick in 2025. Kilen is a hit-over-power bat that rarely swings and misses, taking very good at bats from the left side and effectively handling high level pitching. He covers the plate well and has the ability to drive the ball to all fields, though power projection is a question for now. He's a skinny kid at 5'11" and presently employs a line drive approach, and this spring he hit more ground balls and low liners than scouts would have liked. At Louisville, he'll hopefully learn to lift the ball with more authority and provide a little more impact, especially as he gets stronger and fills out. He's such a professional hitter in the box that I would be willing to buy in now. Defensively, the southern Wisconsin native has all the range and instincts necessary to stick at shortstop, but his arm may be a little light and he could slide to second base, where he could be a plus defender.

2022 MLB Draft Review: New York Yankees

Full list of draftees

While some teams like to play with the bonus pool to go well above or below slot, the Yankees played this draft extremely straightforward by paying exact slot value for each of their first five picks, never going more than more than $233,500 above slot at any point, and never going more than $92,300 below slot. They're getting better and better at developing pitching, so in this draft they picked up fifteen college pitchers out of their twenty picks. In fact, all twenty of their selections this year came from the college ranks as they looked to pick up quick moving talent that can be up in the majors and contributing by 2024-2025. The Yankees like their guys big and physical, and that was certainly the case here with each of their first seven selections standing at least 6'2" and an average overall size of 6'3", 210 led by their first round selection Spencer Jones at 6'7". Lastly, the Yankees already have west coast flair on the team between Californians Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole, Aaron Hicks, and Kyle Higashioka, and this draft heavily featured the west coast as well from top to bottom including in each of the first five picks.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-25: OF Spencer Jones, Vanderbilt. My rank: #29.
Slot value: $2.88 million. Signing bonus: $2.88 million.
The Yankees started off their draft class with one of the more interesting profiles available. Spencer Jones was a highly touted two-way prospect who earned some first round interest out of high school in the San Diego area back in 2019, but he got hurt his senior year and opted to head east to Vanderbilt. Despite showing a low 90's fastball and an above average curveball from a projectable frame, he never got on the mound in Nashville after Tommy John surgery cost him a third consecutive season. Meanwhile, his bat has developed slowly but steadily and he's gotten better and better throughout his time in the program. He began to turn the corner with a strong (.309/.409/.457) run through the Cape Cod League last summer, then fully broke out by slashing .370/.460/.643 with 12 home runs and a 64/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games this spring. Standing a towering 6'7", he'll fit right into that Yankee lineup with fellow hard hitting skyscrapers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and he draws a lot of parallels to the former. Jones hits the ball extremely hard with some of the best high end exit velocities in the class, helping him tap power consistently in games despite more of a line drive, all fields approach. Speaking of his approach, he takes very good at bats despite not following the most straightforward development path. While he does strike out at a high clip, that's more due to his long limbs creating a longer bat path than due to chasing bad pitches. He's also a great athlete for his size, one that runs well enough with plenty enough arm strength to be an above average right fielder in time or even take a shot at center field. It's a package of tools you don't see often, so despite the swing and miss questions, the Yankees are getting huge upside in a guy who could hit in the middle of their lineup within a few years. At his ceiling, that could mean 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages if he manages his strikeouts.

2-61: RHP Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly. My rank: #93.
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: $1.19 million.
I remember watching Drew Thorpe hold Vanderbilt to just two runs over seven innings in his very first college game back in 2020 (and ironically struck out Spencer Jones to close out his first inning), and since then he has quietly been one of the best pitchers on the west coast. He was at his best this spring, posting a 2.32 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 149/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings highlighted by a fifteen strikeout performance against UC San Diego in March. Thorpe sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to about 96 at his best, with some sneaky life on the pitch to boot. His best pitch by far is his changeup, a nasty offering with massive fading life. It's so good that he'll often pitch off of it rather than his fastball, something you rarely see at the amateur level. Previously, the southwestern Utah native struggled to spin a quality breaking ball, but his slider took a step forward this spring and now looks like an average pitch. Despite a delivery that can be a bit rushed at the end, Thorpe pounds the strike zone and rarely lets walks derail his outings. The Yankees will want to help continue improving his slider to give him a second out pitch, and his combination of stuff, command, and a sturdy 6'4" frame could help him move relatively quickly through the minors. While his stuff isn't quite explosive enough to warrant a potential top of the rotation projection, he's a good bet to become a mid-rotation guy in the near future.

3-100: RHP Trystan Vrieling, Gonzaga. My rank: #102.
Slot value: $611,400. Signing bonus: $611,400.
Gonzaga had a loaded pitching staff that featured Gabriel Hughes (now with the Rockies) and William Kepmner (Giants) as their two most famous names entering the season, but Vrieling made it a true three headed monster with a big junior season. He finished the year with a 4.91 ERA and a 107/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings, but he was much stronger early in the season (3.16 ERA, 79/25 K/BB through nine starts) before tiring later in the season (9.13 ERA, 28/21 K/BB over his final six starts). At his best, Vrieling features above average command of a very solid four pitch arsenal, looking like a potential #3 starter. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and tops out at 97 with steep plane and some riding life, while his curveball, slider, and changeup all flash above average. When he's going right, he can locate even the offspeed pitches well to both sides of the plate, making for a complete profile. However, his command deteriorated as he tired later in the season and he was hit hard, leaving him as a bit of an enigma. The 6'4" righty will need to build up his durability in the Yankees system and get more consistent with everything, and he's certainly in the right system to do so.

4-130: OF Anthony Hall, Oregon. My rank: #120.
Slot value: $456,500. Signing bonus: $456,500.
Anthony Hall is not a terribly dissimilar player to Spencer Jones, albeit with a half grade off the tools across the board. Also a San Diego-area product like Jones, he showed well in the Cape Cod League (.283/.382/.481, 4 HR) before breaking out this year at Oregon, where he slashed .333/.402/.640 with 14 home runs and a 43/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. Big and strong at 6'2", Hall can really put a charge into the ball with a leveraged, smooth left handed swing. He previously had trouble tapping that power in games as he didn't always swing at the best pitches, but he's progressively gotten more disciplined in the box and controls the strike zone much better now. That led to him increasing his isolated power (SLG minus AVG) from .184 last year to .307 this year while simultaneously dropping his strikeout rate from 21.7% to 16.6%. It's still a power over hit profile, but certainly a much more balanced one. Hall is a decent runner that can hold his own in a corner outfield spot, but he won't be a value add out there and it will be the bat that carries him up. At best, he profiles for 20-25 home runs a year with average on-base percentages, providing some nice upside for a guy whose floor is that of a platoon/bench bat with pop.

5-160: RHP Eric Reyzelman, Louisiana State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $340,700. Signing bonus: $340,700.
Eric Reyzelman has some of the loudest stuff in the Yankees draft class at his best. A San Francisco transfer, he pitched well on the Cape (2.93 ERA, 38/8 K/BB in 27.2 IP) before landing at LSU this spring, where he put up a 4.04 ERA and a 66/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings out of the bullpen. He loves to attack hitters with his fastball, which is easily his best pitch for now sitting in the mid 90's and touching 99 in short stints. It has a ton of riding and running life on it as well, making it very tough to square up. He has a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup all in his pocket, but he usually leaves them there and sticks with the old #1 as he's much more confident in that fastball. The slider stands out as perhaps his best secondary with good shape, though he does need to sharpen it up. The 6'2" righty is a very good athlete that moves well on the mound with an athletic delivery, and the arm strength is clearly already there. The Yankees' player development system will need to help him choose a couple secondaries to focus on and also get more consistent with his command, and if they can, he has a sneaky chance to start. If not, he can just lean on the slider and watch his fastball approach triple digits, which I'm sure the Yankees would not mind. The San Francisco Bay Area native is a really fun ball of clay and it will be interesting to see what he looks like in a few years.

6-190: RHP Chase Hampton, Texas Tech. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $264,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($233,500 above slot value).
The Yankees lone over slot bonus of the first ten rounds is Chase Hampton, a big righty out of Texas Tech. He was well known as a high school senior but went undrafted in the five round 2020 draft, so he headed across the state to Lubbock and has shown flashes of big potential. As a draft eligible sophomore this year, Hampton put up a 4.29 ERA and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings as the Red Raiders Sunday starter, finishing off the season with a twelve strikeout performance against Notre Dame at the Statesboro Regional. This seems like the kind of profile that could have gone back to school for his junior season and put it all together, which is why the Yankees bought in early with a large over slot bonus for a guy who went unranked on the MLB Pipeline top 250 and came in at #291 on the Baseball America 500 and #548 on Prospects Live. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but can touch the upper 90's early in his starts, showing nice riding action on the pitch. He mixes in a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which flash potential and give the Yankees a lot to work with. Big and strong at 6'2", 225 pounds, the East Texas product has calmed down his delivery a bit since his high school days in Kilgore and has a chance to start if the Yankees are patient and get it right. He still needs to get more consistent with his secondaries and command but he's very young and brings a lot to the table. The profile is actually fairly similar to Eric Reyzelman above him, except that Hampton is much more physical (35 pounds heavier at the same height) and trusts his secondaries more while Reyzelman is thinner and more athletic with a little extra hop to his fastball at the same velocities.

7-220: RHP Cam Schlittler, Northeastern. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $207,500. Signing bonus: $205,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
This is a big, strong pitcher that will be fun for the Yankees player development system to work with. Cam Schlittler had a nice season in the Northeastern rotation, where he out-pitched the more well known Sebastian Keane (also a Yankee draft pick) to the tune of a 3.53 ERA and an 85/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. He's a huge guy listed at 6'6", and honestly he looks even taller standing up on that mound. The fastball sits in the low 90's but he can touch the mid to upper 90's when he reaches back, coming in with steep downhill plane albeit without much life. He shows great feel to spin the ball, with a sweepy slider flashing above average with great shape and a softer curveball looking average with more top to bottom movement. As with the two arms drafted before him, he does need to get more consistent with those secondaries and his command, but I think he'll get there. Schlittler is not a great athlete, relying more on his height than his lower body to get downhill towards the plate, though he does not throw with much effort and could start in pro ball. Perhaps toughest for some Yankees fans to get over will be the fact that he grew up in Walpole in the shadows of Gillette Stadium and less than twenty miles from Boston, so he's a New Englander through and through.

12-370: RHP Jackson Fristoe, Mississippi State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $272,500 ($147,500 against bonus pool).
Jackson Fristoe seemed like a good candidate to go back to school after a tough sophomore season, but the Yankees picked him up for a large day three bonus to see what they could make of him. After a solid freshman season at Mississippi State, Fristoe regressed in 2022 and posted a 7.71 ERA and a 48/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings for a Bulldogs team that fell far short of expectations. He has a premium body at 6'4" and moves very well on the mound, with a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch higher with life. He throws a sharp cutter/slider in the upper 80's that could be a true weapon if he gets more consistent with it, and also flashes a less used changeup that's effective when it's on. His command is presently below average and the Yankees will need to help streamline his long arms and legs into a more consistent delivery, but the pieces are certainly there to build on. It's a relief profile for now, but you never know. Though the western Kentucky native is eligible as a true sophomore, he's a full year older than his graduating class and already turned 21 in March.

14-430: RHP Kris Bow, Southern Nevada JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Kris Bow has been one of the more interesting JUCO arms on the west coast for a few years now, and he finally put it all together with a great 2022 season in which he posted a 2.16 ERA and a 64/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings for the College of Southern Nevada. He has a low to mid 90's fastball with some riding life from a low release point, as well as a full arsenal of secondaries led by an above average slider. He has a very sturdy 6'4" frame and should be durable, but hasn't started on a consistent basis at CSN and he'll have to prove his stuff can hold up over longer periods of time. Still, he has a combination of size, arm strength, secondaries, and command that is difficult to find on day three of the draft, so he could be lightning in a bottle for New York. He just finished his third year at Southern Nevada after previously committing to transfer to Arizona, so he'll turn 22 early in the offseason.

18-550: RHP Sebastian Keane, Northeastern. My rank: #220.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Sebastian Keane was one of the more famous recruits to ever reach campus at Northeastern, coming into Boston having spurned top five round interest out of his northern Massachusetts high school. He's been up and down for the Huskies, but unfortunately 2022 was more of a "down" and he finished with a 5.99 ERA and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings. Now he'll join rotation mate Cam Schlittler in the Yankees system, and they'll work to get him on track. Keane is a great athlete with a low 90's fastball that gets up to 96, while adding a slider that flashes plus at its best in addition to a less used curveball and changeup. The stuff can be extremely inconsistent, with his slider losing snap and his fastball sitting closer to 90 at times, and in 2022 he really struggled to miss bats. His 15.0% strikeout rate this year was by far the lowest on my list, a product of leaving too many pitches over the plate and that regression in his stuff. Still, he doesn't walk too many hitters and has shown flashes of dominance, such as in the Cape Cod League last summer, and has the athleticism and premium stuff at peak to become an impact arm. He's just really far away from that right now and trending in the wrong direction, which is why he's being drafted here in the eighteenth round and not thirteen to fourteen rounds higher like he was projected at his best. And one last piece of good news for Yankee fans – though he grew up in Massachusetts and went to college in Boston, Keane did grow up a Yankees fan, so he's not crossing rivalry lines here.

Saturday, July 30, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

It was a pitching-heavy draft for the White Sox, especially early on when they selected six arms with their first seven picks. They really diversified those arms too, pivoting from 6'9" lefty Noah Schultz to the injured Peyton Pallette, the pinpoint command of Jonathan Cannon, the data sleeper Tyler Schweitzer, and the elite stuff but nonexistent command of Eric Adler. Schultz turned out to be the only high schooler in the entire class, as Chicago focused on guys closer to the big leagues who could help in the current competitive window.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-26: LHP Noah Schultz, Oswego East HS [IL]. My rank: #28.
Slot value: $2.79 million. Signing bonus: $2.80 million ($10,600 above slot value).
The White Sox have spent early round picks on numerous prep pitchers in recent years, with a spotty track record between Tanner McDougal, Jared Kelley, Matthew Thompson, and Andrew Dalquist. They picked up the most interesting one yet in Noah Schultz, a hometown kid out of Oswego East High School on the far western edge of the Chicago suburbs. Schultz has had a rollercoaster of a draft cycle, but the ups have outweighed the downs and he has a chance to become a superstar if everything breaks right. The 6'9" (!) lefty sat in the low 90's and topped around 94 over the previous summer, but he generated huge buzz this spring when he touched 98 early on. His sweeping slider also looked sharper and has a chance to be a true plus pitch, while his changeup is incrementally improving in its own right. Everything plays up because of his massive frame and a low, nearly sidearm slot that puts devastating angle and great life on his pitches. The easy comp is Randy Johnson, especially when he's at the higher end of his velocity range. Unfortunately, Schultz went down with mono and missed a big portion of his spring, so he couldn't prove that the newfound velocity was more than a flash in the pan. His command has been inconsistent but generally close to average, but when he came back from mono later in the season, he was rusty and struggled to consistently keep his long limbs in check. It was rumored that he was strongly leaning towards fulfilling his Vanderbilt commitment, but a $2.8 million check from Jerry Reinsdorf ended up doing the trick and the White Sox have a huge opportunity on their hands. If they can help Schultz hold onto that velocity while getting more consistent with his command, he can be a true ace for his hometown squad. I imagine they'll be careful with him in the early going and it may be a little bit before we see him on a major league mound.

2-62: RHP Peyton Pallette, Arkansas. My rank: #62.
Slot value: $1.16 million. Signing bonus: $1.50 million ($340,800 above slot value).
In the second round, the White Sox picked up a high upside arm with a wide range of potential outcomes. I was in attendance on February 21st, 2021, when Peyton Pallette first rose to prominence in a start against Texas. Not a well-known name at the time, he came out of the gate firing explosive 95-96 MPH fastballs that completely overwhelmed an extraordinarily experienced top of the Longhorn lineup. I caught the first two innings, in which he mainly pitched off that fastball, and came away extremely impressed after he finished it off with a strikeout of Ivan Melendez. He finished that 2021 season with a 4.02 ERA and a 67/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, but unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery shortly before the 2022 season and hasn't pitched since. Given that Pallette had a few things to prove this year, it leaves him as a bit of an enigma. One one hand, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 99 with some life, but disciplined hitters can pick it up out of his hand and hit it hard when it's over the plate. His curveball is his best pitch, a true hammer with elite spin rates that looks like one of the best breaking balls in the class when he's on the mound. Lastly, he does not use his changeup much, so for now it's mostly a two-pitch profile. The central Arkansas native (from the same Benton High School as fellow Razorback Cliff Lee) is very athletic and repeats his simple delivery well, but he has a skinny 6'1" frame that brings some durability questions. Had he been healthy in 2022, he may have been able to answer those questions, but even though I don't really count Tommy John in durability considerations since everybody gets it nowadays, he still didn't get to prove he could maintain his stuff over a longer season. Pallette throws strikes, but his control is ahead of his command and like I mentioned earlier, he can get hit hard when he leaves his fastball over the plate. Once healthy, the White Sox may try to play with his release to put more deception on the pitch, and if they can help him more effectively incorporate a changeup, he could be a #2 starter. He's relatively young for a college junior to boot, only having turned 21 in May.

3-101: RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. My rank: #94.
Slot value: $606,600. Signing bonus: $925,000 ($318,400 above slot value).
After two upside plays in Noah Schultz and Peyton Pallette, the White Sox played it safer with Jonathan Cannon in the third round. Cannon was eligible in 2021 as an older sophomore but opted to return to school, where he had very good if unspectacular results. The Atlanta-area native put up a 4.02 ERA and a 68/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, though he was much stronger in the first half of the season (1.55 ERA, 52/3 K/BB in his first eight starts) than the second half (9.00 ERA, 16/9 K/BB in his final five). Cannon throws hard, sitting in the low to mid 90's and getting up to 96-97 at his best, getting nice extension from his big 6'6" frame. It's a fairly generic pitch movement-wise, so he added a cutter this spring to keep hitters from sitting on the fastball and it has been effective. He adds a slider and changeup as well, with both pitches flashing above average at their best, giving him a very well-rounded five pitch arsenal. To top it all off, Cannon has continually improved his command throughout his time in Athens and is now comfortably plus in that regard, hitting his spots with all of his pitches. He has a big, durable frame, but did miss some time with a forearm strain in April and did not look quite the same when he returned. This is a high probability big league starter that should move very quickly if he stays healthy, with a very good chance to be a #4 guy by 2024.

4-131: SS Jordan Sprinkle, UC Santa Barbara. My rank: #170.
Slot value: $452,900. Signing bonus: $452,900.
For their first position player, the White Sox went out to the west coast and picked up UC Santa Barbara shortstop Jordan Sprinkle. Sprinkle generated a lot of buzz with a strong sophomore season (.353/.402/.536, 7 HR), but an uneven run with the Collegiate National Team and on the Cape followed by a disappointing 2022 season dropped his stock. This year, he hit .285/.381/.416 with three home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 46/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games, then committed to transfer to Arkansas as a backup in case the draft didn't work out. He stands out most for his glove, showing off a good arm and very slick defense at shortstop that will make him an asset at the premium position. A plus runner, he can get to balls in the hole and also stole 51 bases over the past two seasons at UCSB. The bat is more of an enigma. An aggressive hitter, he makes a lot of hard contact to all fields and handles advanced pitching well, but his strikeout rate rose from 14.9% as a sophomore to 18.0% as pitchers began to adjust to him. There's not much power to fall back on, with more of a line drive approach and a smaller 5'11" frame. He slugged .536 as a junior but just .362 between the CNT and the Cape over the summer and just .416 this spring, so once he transitions to wood bats full time, it will likely be well below average. The Southern California native brings a utility infield profile whose glove will buy his bat a ton of slack, so he doesn't need to hit a ton to be valuable. If he can get back to his all fields, line drive approach and take the kind of professional at bats he took as a sophomore, he should be a valuable piece off the bench in Chicago soon.

5-161: LHP Tyler Schweitzer, Ball State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $337,600. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($12,600 below slot value).
Here's a fun semi-hometown pick. Tyler Schweitzer grew up in the northeastern Indianapolis suburb of Fishers and attended Hamilton Southeastern High School, where he teamed with 2021 Angels first round pick Sam Bachman and pitched right across town from 2021 Diamondbacks sixth rounder Luke Albright and 2021 Yankees seventeenth rounder Grant Richardson. Schweitzer had a big breakout year in 2022, posting a 2.65 ERA and a 112/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings for Ball State, picking up MAC Pitcher of the Year honors along the way. He's a bit of a jack of all trades, master of none for now, but with steps forward in any one area, he could quickly become a similar force in pro ball to what he was in the MAC. He sits around 90 with his fastball, but has the arm strength to reach back for 96 in short stints and gets impressive riding life on the pitch as well. It's a bit of an invisiball that could become a serious weapon if he gets closer to his peak velocity more frequently. The slider, curveball, and changeup all flash big league potential, but can also flatten out and are fairly inconsistent for now. Similarly, he's an athletic kid that throws a lot of strikes but can have days where he's more control over command. Together, the six foot lefty gives the White Sox a lot to work with, and as he gets stronger and more polished, he could become a back-end starter in Chicago.

6-191: RHP Eric Adler, Wake Forest. My rank: #196.
Slot value: $261,800. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($61,800 below slot value).
If Tyler Schweitzer is a jack of all trades, master of none, then Eric Adler is a master of some trades and completely useless in the others. He entered the season as one of the best pure-relief prospects available after dominating the Cape Cod League to the tune of a 0.96 ERA and a 30/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings, but 2022 was a different story at Wake Forest. There, his ERA ballooned to 8.86 and he ran a 37/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings as his command completely fell apart. Adler has truly elite stuff, sitting in the mid 90's with a fastball that can get up to 98 at its best and generating explosive life on the pitch to boot. His slider is equally untouchable, with late, sharp downer action. He splits the difference with a very solid cutter that keeps hitters from sitting on one or the other, making for a premium reliever's arsenal. However, he struggled to find the strike zone at all in 2022, with his 22.3% walk rate the worst on my draft board by a full 5% margin. He struggles to keep his body on line to the plate and as you can see by his numbers this year, no level of wicked stuff can make that type of command playable. The White Sox will have to get him back to the fringy command he showed on the Cape, and if he does, the Floridian could be a high leverage reliever that makes you hold your breath a little bit when he puts runners on base.

10-311: 1B Tim Elko, Mississippi. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $149,600. Signing bonus: $35,000 ($114,600 below slot value).
If you're going to spend a paltry $35,000 on a tenth round senior sign, you might as well make it interesting. Tim Elko is just that, leaving Ole Miss as one of the most accomplished hitters in the program's history culminating in a National Championship. He played five years in Oxford and was a middle of the lineup force for the past three, in which he clubbed 43 home runs, drove in 145, and slashed .315/.418/.656 with a 150/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games – some of which was played on a torn ACL. In this case, the stats tell the storyline. At 6'4", 240 pounds, he's a prototypical slugger that will not miss a mistake pitch, punishing virtually every pitcher that has come through the SEC in the past couple of seasons. He has performed against high level stuff for years now, though there is some swing and miss in his game and he'll likely have a below average hit tool in pro ball. Defensively limited to first base with well below average speed, he'll have to tap his power consistently to keep moving up. He profiles best as a bench bat with a ceiling along the lines of a Jesus Aguilar type. The Tampa-area native turns 24 this offseason, so he'll want to move quickly.

12-371: 3B Brooks Baldwin, UNC Wilmington. My rank: #207.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: perhaps a bit above $125K.
Brooks Baldwin has been one of the better hitters in the Colonial Athletic Conference over the past two seasons, combining to slash .335/.377/.598 with 26 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and a 76/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games. However, it wasn't until this summer until his stock really began to take off, as he hit .361/.381/.485 in a 24 game Cape Cod League stint in the month leading up to the draft. Baldwin has an aggressive but improving approach at the plate, making a ton of hard contact to all fields that manifested in back to back seasons with double digit home run totals at UNC Wilmington. The power may not play up with wood bats, but the hit tool is strong enough that he should take to pro pitching relatively easily. It's a high average type with plus wheels that drive a high volume of balls into the gaps for doubles and triples while sneaking his way into some power here and there. He's a very good athlete that saw time at every single position except pitcher and catcher during his four years in Wilmington, with a super utility projection going forward even if he's a bit stretched at shortstop. Though he's a senior sign, he's young for his class and still 21 years old, in fact younger than the junior Jonathan Cannon.

Friday, July 29, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Milwaukee Brewers

Full list of draftees

The Brewers clearly had a type in this draft, with each of the first four position players they drafted standing 5'10" or shorter (and number five was still only an even six foot). They prioritized bat to ball skills and professional approaches at the plate, with college bats like Eric Brown, Robert Moore, and Matt Wood bringing a high floor with and Dylan O'Rae appearing to be a bit of a sleeper. The one pitcher they took early on, Jacob Misiorowski, has the exact opposite profile as a 6'7" fireballer with one of the most electric fastballs in the class. He signed for a much bigger bonus than many in the industry expected, which may jeopardize their prized day three selections. Just like last year, Milwaukee shot for the moon on day three and drafted numerous high end high school talents that appeared hell-bent on attending school, with the hopes of signing maybe two or three. Now with Misiorowski's big bonus, the most they can offer any individual day three prepster is just short of $700,000, which seems like it would not be enough to land either LSU commit in Brady Neal or Jaden Noot.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-27: SS Eric Brown, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #27.
Slot value: $2.70 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($651,900 below slot value).
The Brewers started off on the right foot by drafting Coastal Carolina shortstop Eric Brown, long a favorite of analytics-driven scouts coming off his best year yet for the Chanticleers. In 57 games, Brown slashed .330/.460/.544 with seven home runs and an extremely impressive 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio, including five walks to just one strikeout at the Greenville Regional. The first thing you'll notice watching him play is his unique setup at the plate, in which he starts with his hands held right next to his ear while wiggling the bat back towards the third base dugout behind him. From there, he brings those hands forward across his cheek and points the bat head directly at the pitcher, then quickly brings them back to his back shoulder to get ready for the pitch. A traditional, square peg square hole coach would see this and scream about all the wasted movement, but Brown has impeccable timing and is always perfectly in position to hit when the time comes. From there, the Shreveport-area native stands out for his extraordinary plate discipline, with just enough patience to rarely chase pitches out of the zone but still plenty of decisiveness to attack pitches he likes. By swinging at good pitches, he's able to channel his wiry strength into consistently high exit velocities, employing a line drive approach that sends balls screaming around the diamond. Undersized at 5'10", he hasn't shown much over the fence power with just sixteen career home runs in 123 games at Coastal Carolina, but given his ability to sting the baseball with regularity he could tap into 15-20 home run power or more in the big leagues if he starts to lift it more often. While he lacks explosive athleticism, he's balanced and fluid at shortstop with a strong arm, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position. If not, he could be a plus defender at second or third base. Brown should move quickly through the minors and could hit atop the Brewers' lineup sooner rather than later.

2-63: RHP Jacob Misiorowski, Crowder JC. My rank: #66.
Slot value: $1.13 million. Signing bonus: $2.35 million ($1.22 million above slot value).
Jacob Misiorowski is one of the more unique arms in this class, one who had some late helium and had interest much earlier in the second round. Signability pushed him down a bit and he signed with Milwaukee for more than double slot value (and more than Eric Brown received at the 27th pick), closer to the slot value of the 32nd pick. If you remember back to the 2019 draft, the Brewers picked up Wabash Valley JC lefty Antoine Kelly with the 65th pick, and Misiorowski at #63 is extremely similar. The 6'7" righty dominated at Crowder JC in southwestern Missouri, posting a 2.72 ERA and a 136/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings on the strength of his wicked stuff. It's a profile dominated by the fastball, as he sits comfortably in the mid to upper 90's and can pop for triple digits at his best, coming from a lower release point with elite extension that gives it a ton of life beyond just its premium velocity. When located, it's truly one of the best fastballs in the entire class. Misiorowski also works in a short, power slider that gets into the upper 80's, though it's an average pitch on its own that missed a ton of bats at Crowder because hitters were so overwhelmed by his fastball. He doesn't throw much of a changeup for now, which will need to be a major emphasis in his development if he wants to start. The Kansas City-area native also struggles to keep his ultra long limbs in check, struggling to repeat his delivery at times and leading to below average command. As a JUCO sophomore, he only turned 20 in April and has plenty of time to figure things out. The Brewers will need to put a lot of work into this project in streamlining his delivery and developing his secondaries, but the upside is massive because you just can't teach the combination of power and extension he brings to the table. Kelly, a lefty, had the same height and a similarly explosive fastball out of Wabash Valley JC, but his secondaries and command were even less refined than Misiorowski's and he looks to be breaking out at High A Wisconsin this year.

CBB-72: SS Robert Moore, Arkansas. My rank: #104.
Slot value: $915,300. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($115,300 below slot value).
Robert Moore has another extremely unique profile, though it's on the complete opposite end of the spectrum as Jacob Misiorowski. The son of Royals GM Dayton Moore, Robert graduated early from his Kansas City-area high school (in fact just 23 miles west of Misiorowski's high school) to enroll at Arkansas and set the world on fire as an underclassman. Despite playing his first college game at just 17 years old, he slashed .291/.388/.534 with 18 home runs in 76 games over his first two collegiate seasons. After hitting .351 for the US Collegiate National Team over the summer, he entered this spring with sky high expectations and plenty of interest throughout the first round. However, 2022 did more to highlight the weaknesses in his game than the strengths, and he finished with just a .232/.374/.427 slash line, eight home runs, and a 46/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. So who is Robert Moore? Listed at just 5'9" and skinny at that, he doesn't stand out on the baseball field, but his intangibles absolutely do. He has an exceptional understanding of the strike zone for such a young hitter (he still only turned 20 in March), is completely unfazed by advanced stuff and makes hard contact to all fields. A switch hitter, Moore takes big, healthy hacks from both sides of the plate that helped him tap some solid pull side power as an underclassman, especially from the left side, but that power did not show up with wood over the summer and his unremarkable 2022 calls that power potential further into question. He'll likely have to resort to more of a line drive approach in pro ball, where he could hit 10-15 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at best if everything translates and he recaptures his 2020-2021 form. Defensively, Moore provides plenty of value with excellent instincts at second base, plenty of range, and just enough arm strength to get it done. The Brewers drafted him as a shortstop and there is a chance he could work there, with those instincts and range hopefully making up for his arm. Ultimately, I see a utility type that will be a great addition in the clubhouse, as he was known as a true catalyst at Arkansas that could fire up his team when they needed it.

3-102: SS Dylan O'Rae, Northern Collegiate HS [ON]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $600,700. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($3,200 below slot value).
This pick came completely out of left field, completely stumping the MLB.com analysts if you were watching. Dylan O'Rae was not ranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250, nor on the Baseball America 500 or the Prospects Live top 600. Undersized at 5'9" (much like Robert Moore directly above him), he will need to get much more physical to compete in the pro game, but the raw skills are absolutely there. O'Rae has very quick hands in the box with an explosive left handed swing, and as he puts on weight and physically matures, he could tap some solid power at the next level. He performed well at showcase events with good feel to use the whole field, and he's a plus runner that makes things happen. The Ontario product also plays a solid shortstop and could stick there, again, if he gets a little bigger and stronger, making this a very well rounded package. He signed with the Brewers rather than attend Illinois, where he could have emerged in three years as a second rounder with a track record of performance.

4-132: C Matt Wood, Penn State. My rank: #125.
Slot value: $448,400. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($100,900 below slot value).
The Brewers shored up their catching depth with an all-around contributor in Matt Wood. Wood was a solid catcher in State College before breaking out for a huge 2022, slashing .379/.480/.667 with 12 home runs and a 26/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He's not overly physical at 5'10", but maximizes his offensive output with excellent plate discipline and feel for the barrel, producing a high quantity of hard hit baseballs to all fields that find grass and seats in bunches. He recognizes pitches well and doesn't swing and miss much, and while some of his college home runs may turn into doubles in pro ball, he should continue to spray the ball around the field with authority. The Pittsburgh-area native is also a better athlete than your average catcher and moves well behind the plate, though he does need some refinement with the finer aspects of catching. Overall, it's a profile that doesn't stand out in any particular area except perhaps his feel for hitting, but he has all the makings of a first division backup catcher or second division starter that can provide some impact in the box. Think perhaps 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is more than many catchers can claim nowadays.

14-432: RHP Aidan Maldonado, Minnesota. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely around $125K.
The Brewers didn't draft any Wisconsinites this year, but they did get two Upper Midwesterners in Illinois-Chicago's Nate Peterson (from Lakeville, MN) and Minnesota's Aidan Maldonado. Maldonado grew up in Rosemount on the south side of the Twin Cities and less than a half hour drive from the Wisconsin border, then originally began his career at Illinois where he ran a 7.44 ERA over three seasons. Transferring back home to Minnesota this year, he was much more consistent and pitched to a 3.91 ERA and a 90/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 96, adding a sweepy slider and a bigger curveball. Maldonado has a violent delivery with a pronounced stabbing motion in the back, which previously held his command back to the point where he was unplayable on the mound for Illinois. He wrangled that command enough to get to 40, maybe 45 on his best days this spring, which suddenly helps his big stuff play up. The offspeed stuff can still be inconsistent and with a tendency to lose his arm slot and yank his pitches, he still doesn't locate well enough to crack it as a starter. But in shorter stints, he could be a nasty reliever that doesn't have to worry so much about game planning and holding things together for longer periods of time.

17-522: C Brady Neal, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #97.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
Perhaps the biggest name of Milwaukee's day three splurge, Brady Neal would be a massive get if they can find the money. A second to fourth round prospect on most boards, he would have gone within the top one hundred picks if he had been more signable and it will likely require close to or over a million dollars to lure him away from an LSU commitment, which the Brewers don't have. Originally a member of the class of 2023, Neal reclassified to be a part of the 2022 class and has looked quite at home among the best players in the class. Despite not turning 18 until October, he takes very good at bats against high quality pitching, looking unfazed against premium velocity and breaking stuff. The barrel accuracy is a bit behind the plate discipline but it's catching up quickly, and his left handed swing has been looking better and better. Though he stands only 5'10", he has a chance at average or better power to go with a hit tool that will likely end up at least above average down the line. There are some questions about how much impact he'll ultimately provide at the plate, he's so advanced for his age that adding that impact can be a greater focus than most catchers. Like Matt Wood, he's very agile behind the plate and could even hold his own at an infield spot if need be, but he'll be a catcher going forward. While his game does need some overall refinement back there like you'd expect from a 17 year old, again, it's very advanced for his age.

18-552: SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, Champagnat Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #185.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely above $500K if he signs.
Ironically, the Brewers actually drafted a Dutch teenager out of Champagnat Catholic High School in the Miami area a year ago, and they'll do the same this year with Curacao native Jurrangelo "Loo" Cijntje (pronounced SAINT-juh). Aside from having quite possibly the coolest name in the draft, Cijntje is a living, breathing switch pitcher that will have a chance to continue doing his thing in the minors. He's sharper from the right side, where he can get up to 97 and comfortably deals in the low 90's, while his slider shows nice sweep. From the left side, he's more in the upper 80's and his slider lacks power, but it does show good depth. As you might imagine, he's an exceptional athlete that moves well on the mound and represents a great ball of clay for Milwaukee should he sign. Cijntje is very old for a high school senior having already turned 19 in May, but it's such a unique profile that the age isn't a huge deal. He's for sure a potential big league pitcher from the right side, and if he can add velocity and power to his stuff from the left side, he could do both in the majors. Regardless, he does need to tighten up his breaking balls and get more consistent with his command. Because he's already 19, he'll be eligible again in 2024 should he head to Mississippi State.

19-582: RHP Jaden Noot, Sierra Canyon HS [CA]. My rank: #118.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
Jaden Noot, like Brady Neal and the already-signed Jacob Misiorowski, is committed to LSU and will require a massive bonus to sign. At this point, it looks unlikely after Misiorowski's massive bonus and the fact that he has been considered a tough sign throughout the process. Noot is a big, physical pitcher at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, and he's teeming with arm strength. The fastball comfortably sits in the low to mid 90's and he can touch as high as 97 while looking like he's just playing catch. His slider is his best offspeed, looking above average at its best, while his curveball shows big break but needs to add power and he lacks feel for his changeup coming out of his hand. Throwing without much effort, he's able to show solid command and could get to above average in that regard in the future, giving him at least a back-end starter's profile. The Los Angeles-area native is not a great athlete, with a short stride down the mound and an upright finish that's more reminiscent of old school innings eating starters than the explosive athletes like Misiorowski. Noot will have to watch his conditioning but the arm strength is undeniable. Should he end up in Baton Rouge, he could step into the weekend rotation relatively quickly and emerge as a much higher pick after three years of performance.

Thursday, July 28, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Houston Astros

Full list of draftees

The Astros forfeited their first and second round picks in both 2020 and 2021 as penance for the sign stealing scandal, so they had not picked above #72 since 2019 and their pick at #28 tied their highest pick since 2018. With more draft capital than they've had in years, Houston put together a fantastic class, headlined by their potential outfield of the future in Drew Gilbert, Jacob Melton, and Ryan Clifford, the latter of whom signed for over a million dollars above "slot" in the eleventh round. I especially love those first two picks of Gilbert and Melton, two college bats with exceptional power/speed combinations who put it together for very strong seasons in their respective power conferences. After those two, Houston pivoted to arms and selected seven pitchers in their next eight picks, including fascinating lefty Trey Dombroski who dominated the Cape Cod League despite a fastball in the upper 80's. In addition to Houston area native and Oral Roberts shortstop Jackson Loftin, the Astros drafted two other players out of Texas schools in TCU's Tommy Sacco Jr. and Dallas Baptist's Ryan Wrobleski.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-28: OF Drew Gilbert, Tennessee. My rank: #12.
Slot value: $2.62 million. Signing bonus: $2.50 million ($121,700 below slot value).
I love this pick. I thought Drew Gilbert had a chance to sneak into the top ten picks on an under slot deal, but he lasted until the back of the round and still saved the Astros some money. If you watch college baseball, you're very familiar with the name, but if not, let me introduce him to you. The University of Tennessee has a reputation as a loud, cocky, in-your-face type of team that competes like crazy, and Gilbert is right in the middle of that. He's loud, he plays with fire, and he hates losing as much as anybody out there. He originally rose to fame with this walk off grand slam in the 2021 Knoxville Regional, resulting in possibly the longest home run trot in baseball history (I clocked it at 34.4 seconds). So now that we know he's a competitor, who is Drew Gilbert as a player? Well, the Minnesota native is coming off a tremendous season in which he slashed .362/.455/.673 with eleven home runs and a 32/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 58 games, also adding 21 doubles and four triples along the way to give him 36 extra base hits in that span. Just 5'9", he can really smoke the ball with an explosive swing that shows real power to the pull side, registering high exit velocities that make those 36 extra base hits perfectly unsurprising. Despite his big left handed hack, he's a disciplined hitter with a very accurate barrel that rarely swings and misses, handling top flight SEC pitching easily. He also should stick in center field, where his plus speed plays well and his cannon left arm – which drew some scouting interest as a pitcher at Stillwater High School northeast of St. Paul – will make him an asset. Gilbert should move quickly through the minors and if fans are still booing the Astros by the time he reaches the majors, which they probably will be, he'll be completely unfazed after being the face of the most hated team in college baseball (though personally I loved watching Tennessee play). This is a good one.

2-64: OF Jacob Melton, Oregon State. My rank: #33.
Slot value: $1.10 million. Signing bonus: $1 million ($104,100 below slot value).
Another pick, another college outfielder that really should not have been available to the Astros that they pounced on for six figures below slot value. Jacob Melton raked in a limited sample size in 2021, where he slashed .404/.466/.697 in 32 games, then came back and was named the Pac-12 Player of the Year in 2022 after he slashed .360/.424/.670 with 17 home runs and a 51/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Melton has a very broad set of skills to build on, perhaps most notably his plus raw power that has helped him slug near .700 over the past two seasons. He has a very simple setup at the plate aside from a big leg kick, as he keeps his weight and his hands back before getting long, uphill through the zone to tap that power. With a projectable, athletic 6'3" frame, it's all he really needs to do to send the ball out. The southern Oregon native is an aggressive hitter but still does not swing and miss too much, keeping a reasonable 17.3% strikeout rate this spring while consistently driving extra base hits to all fields. Melton is also a great athlete that handles himself well in the outfield, with the speed and arm strength necessary to become a solid center fielder or plus right fielder. He does a lot well and could move relatively quickly, and it will be interesting to watch him race Drew Gilbert to the majors. The two could make up two thirds of a very strong outfield for Houston in the long run.

2C-80: RHP Andrew Taylor, Central Michigan. My rank: #168.
Slot value: $807,200. Signing bonus: $807,200.
Switching gears to the pitching side of things, the Astros brought on Andrew Taylor out of Central Michigan. While Drew Gilbert and Jacob Melton captured headlines in the SEC and Pac-12, respectively, Taylor quietly went about his business in the MAC and finished his three year career in Mount Pleasant 20-8 with a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 261/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 195 innings. He's a long, lanky, 6'5" righty with a fastball that gets up to 94 and a full set of secondaries. His changeup is presently his best offspeed pitch as a consistent putaway offering, while his two breaking balls are average pitches with the curveball having bigger shape and the tighter slider coming along more recently. Taylor fills up the strike zone with all four pitches and has rarely been challenged against MAC competition, and he showed well in big non-conference/playoff matchups with Coastal Carolina, Wake Forest, Miami, Iowa, and Florida this spring (combined 2.78 ERA, 33/9 K/BB over 22.2 innings). The focus now will be getting stronger and sharpening his offspeed stuff. Taylor is a string bean at 6'5" and can see his velocity dip into the upper 80's later in his starts, so adding weight to that frame and sitting more consistently in the low 90's will be very important. The fastball comes from a steep approach angle but does have some nice hop to it that Houston can tinker with, and if one of his breaking balls can take a step forward and become a 55 offering, he could be a #3 or #4 starter. Working in the western Michigan native's favor is his age, as he's very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until September. Ironically, that makes him roughly a full year younger than both Melton and Gilbert.

3-103: RHP Michael Knorr, Coastal Carolina. My rank: #161.
Slot value: $594,600. Signing bonus: $487,500 ($107,100 below slot value).
The Astros picked up one of the better senior signs available in Michael Knorr, a Cal State Fullerton transfer who broke out this spring with a 3.39 ERA and an 86/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings for Coastal Carolina. He has a fastball that consistently sits in the low to mid 90's and reached 99 this spring, showing some running action to help it play up. Knorr spins an above average, two plane curveball and his changeup is a solid pitch as well. He comes across his body in his delivery to put difficult angle on his pitches, helping them all play up further and giving hitters a different look. The 6'5" righty is durable and pounds the strike zone, looking like a very solid, innings eating #4 or #5 starter. Houston is buying the late bloomer's trajectory here, and although he's a senior sign, he's on the younger side for the class having only turned 22 in May. The combination of power stuff and strong pitchability make him a favorite of many scouts. He should move quickly through the minors and could crack the back of the Houston rotation by 2024.

4-133: LHP Trey Dombroski, Monmouth. My rank: #114.
Slot value: $443,900. Signing bonus: $443,900.
This is a fascinating pick. Trey Dombroski has been nothing short of dominant everywhere he's gone, and over the last two years at Monmouth he's 11-3 with a 2.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 184/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 147.2 innings. That's all well and good, but Wofford was probably the toughest lineup he faced this spring (and he threw very well, FWIW), so it has to be taken with a grain of salt, right? Well sandwiched between his excellent sophomore and junior seasons was an even better run through the Cape Cod League in summer 2021, in which he posted a 1.19 ERA and a 51/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.2 innings. Given the ample track record both in the MAAC and on the Cape, you'd be surprised to find out Dombroski only sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, scraping 92-93 at his best. His success is derived his secondaries, command, and pitchability, not velocity. His changeup is probably his best pitch with nice fade, while he mixes in a sweeping slider and a bigger curveball. The 6'5" lefty hides the ball well and not only locates, but plays his pitches off each other, working all of them to different locations around the zone and keeping hitters completely off balance. It's a really old school profile that might have pitched fifteen years in the big leagues if he were born a generation earlier, but he could still make that happen in today's game. His soft tossing, deceptive, keep-you-guessing style of pitching is becoming more and more of a differentiator, and given how untouchable he looked against elite bats in the Cape Cod League, you have to think the Astros can make it all work. The Jersey Shore native just needs to add a tick or two of velocity to comfortably sit more 90-92 rather than the 87-90 he currently shows, and he could become a very solid big league starter that could hold down an innings eater role for a long time.

7-223: RHP AJ Blubaugh, Milwaukee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $202,900. Signing bonus: $172,500 ($30,400 below slot value).
AJ Blubaugh was one of the latest risers in the class, finally breaking through into serious draft consideration in the Cape Cod League this summer. After a solid season as a swingman for Wisconsin-Milwaukee in which he posted a 3.25 ERA and a 51/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.2 innings, he joined Orleans on the Cape and was lights out, allowing just two hits and no walks over 9.1 shutout innings, striking out thirteen of the thirty batters he faced along the way (43.3%). He's a late bloomer physically that has steadily gotten more and more physical, now pushing his fastball into the mid 90's more consistently in short stints. The pitch has some ride that misses bats up in the zone, and he pairs it with a nice changeup that functions as his best secondary for now. The 6'2" righty also throws a pair of slurvy breaking balls that need to be tightened up a bit, giving him a full arsenal if the Astros can put it together. He's a great athlete that gets down the mound well and makes for a great ball of clay for an organization that develops pitching well, so he could really go in any number of directions. If Houston gets the breaking balls snapping better while keeping his command together, he could be a solid starting pitcher, or they could throw him in the bullpen and let him work off that fastball/changeup combo and see the former touch 96-97 or higher more frequently. The Ohio native turned 22 shortly before the draft so he is on the older side for a college junior.

11-343: OF Ryan Clifford, Pro5 Academy [NC]. My rank: #95.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $1.26 million ($1.13 million against bonus pool).
The Astros shot for the moon with this pick, as it was no secret that Ryan Clifford was hell-bent on attending Vanderbilt and he likely would have gone in the top two to three rounds if he had been more signable. Houston did not dish out any above-slot deals in the first ten rounds, giving them over a million dollars to play with in rounds eleven through twenty for players who want to sign for more than $125,000 (up to $125K per pick does not count against the bonus pool), so they were able to land Clifford with a massive bonus. For reference, his $1.26 million bonus would have been closest to the slot value of pick #59 in the second round. In this Raleigh-Durham product, the Astros are getting a kid with as much big stage experience as any teenager, having appeared in national showcase events throughout his childhood and performing well at them along the way. Fully committed to a future in baseball, he played high school ball at Pro5 Academy while taking classes at Crossroads FLEX High School. As you might expect from someone with so much experience around high level competition, Clifford is a very advanced hitter for a teenager that takes great at bats and is unfazed by high end stuff. He generates above average power from a smooth left handed swing, working with a strong, lean 6'3" frame that aids in his power projection. While he didn't quite dominate the showcase circuit this past summer the way scouts had hoped, he was back to his usual hot hitting ways in the spring and was rumored to have interest as high as the second round. Clifford has a chance to be an above average hitter with above average power, which would make him a staple in the Astros lineup as a potential 20-25 home run hitter with good on-base percentages. For as great a hitter as he is, he's an unremarkable athlete that may end up in left field in the long run, so the pressure will be on his bat to live up to the hype. Had he gone to Vanderbilt, he would have been eligible again in 2024 because his July birthday makes him old for a high school senior.

12-373: SS Zach Dezenzo, Ohio State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Houston picked up a quality senior sign in Zach Dezenzo, who hit .319/.413/.700 with 19 home runs and a 50/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games this spring. He's a big guy at a listed 6'4", 220 pounds, and bringing a ton of strength and leverage to the plate and blasting some long home runs along the way. Dezenzo is an aggressive hitter with some moving parts in his swing including a slight hitch in the load that impede his bat to ball skills, so the transition from the Big Ten to pro pitching will be a bit steep, but he produces elite exit velocities when he does connect and he does so frequently enough to tap his power very consistently in games. A shortstop for Ohio State, the northeastern Ohio native will likely have to move off the position but he could stick at third base or provide some value in the outfield. If he can get to even a fringy hit tool, he could be a very solid platoon bat for Houston in the future that can club 15-20 home runs a year in a part time role.

13-403: SS Jackson Loftin, Oral Roberts. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Houston is a hotbed of baseball talent and the Astros did pick up one player from the sprawling metro, Oral Roberts shortstop Jackson Loftin. Loftin grew up in the northern suburb of Spring and attended Klein Collins High School, alma mater of Reds outfielder Tyler Naquin and Giants outfielder Austin Dean. After three lackluster seasons at Sam Houston State, he transferred up north to Oral Roberts where he broke out with a .349/.447/.572 slash line, ten home runs, and a 34/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. Loftin has a solid 6'2" frame and used it more effectively in 2022, channeling his strength into a more direct swing with a better approach at the plate that paid huge dividends. On top of a very solid all around bat that can drive the ball to both gaps with authority with some over the fence power to the pull side, he's a very good runner that stole 25 bases for Oral Roberts this spring and played a solid shortstop. He has the look of a utility infielder that can play all over the diamond and do a little bit of everything.

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays

Full list of draftees

The Rays always draft well, and this year was no different. After pulling off a surprise with the powerful Xavier Isaac at the back of the first round, they transitioned to a mostly college-oriented draft that only included two more high schoolers the rest of the way, one of which (seventeenth rounder Levi Huesman) may not even sign. They diversified for sure, mixing Isaac's and Dominic Keegan's immense raw power and well below average speed with Chandler Simpson's top of the scale speed and bottom of the scale power. Meanwhile, Brock Jones and Ryan Cermak offer a nice mix of both. My personal favorite pick in this class is sixth rounder Gary Gill Hill, who fits way too perfectly in this development system and could come out an absolute monster.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-29: 1B Xavier Isaac, East Forsyth HS [NC]. My rank: #166.
Slot value: $2.55 million. Signing bonus: likely below slot value.
Kumar Rocker and the Rangers made headlines for the most surprising pick in the first round, but those who follow the draft closely may have been equally or more surprised by the Rays and Xavier Isaac. He ranked #92 on Baseball America, #113 on MLB Pipeline, #166 on my board, and #172 on Prospects Live, and I saw other boards that had him outside the top 200. I'm not pointing this out to call it a bad pick, rather to show that nobody saw it coming. Isaac has very little track record against high quality pitching, so this is a massive gamble, but the Rays clearly believe the bat is for real and that playing on the summer showcase circuit would have only proven what they already knew. Nobody doubts the raw power, which is among the best in the entire high school class up there with names like Elijah Green and Jayson Jones. The Winston-Salem-area native packs an incredible amount of brute strength into his 6'4", 240 pound frame, channeling it into a powerful left handed swing that might put the Tropicana roof in danger. If you want an example, just look at this opposite field laser that other teenage hitters simply cannot replicate. He hit very well against North Carolina high school pitching this year, but like I mentioned earlier, the hit tool is very unproven and he could move slowly through the system. That's viewed as a negative in scouting circles, but technically, it's just a lack of a positive instead and there's a key difference. The Rays obviously are fully bought in, and they see a kid who could hit 35+ home runs a year, perhaps the next David Ortiz at the high end. He'll have to hit, because he's a well below average athlete that will be limited to first base defensively, if not DH. Isaac is committed to Florida, but I can't imagine that will be a factor this high in the draft as the Rays look to lure him a little bit farther down I-75.

2-65: OF Brock Jones, Stanford. My rank: #38.
Slot value: $1.08 million. Signing bonus: $1.08 million.
Brock Jones' stock has been on a little bit of a roller coaster over the past couple seasons, but it's definitely on the upward trend right now and Tampa Bay could be picking up a true impact player here. Originally recruited for both football and baseball, Jones logged some time as a safety at Stanford Stadium before giving up football to focus on baseball as a sophomore. That paid off as he hit .311/.453/.646 with 18 home runs that year, and he entered the 2022 season a potential top ten pick. However, he didn't get much to hit early in the season and struggled to adjust, slashing an unremarkable .247/.417/.416 with a 28.7% strikeout rate through his first 25 games. However, he turned things around in a big way starting in mid April and slashed .366/.470/.799 with 16 home runs and a 22.3% strikeout rate over 40 games the rest of the way. So enough history, who is Brock Jones? He's a chiseled athlete with a compact, strong-as-heck six foot frame that did not look out of place on the football field. He has a simple but powerful left handed swing that enables him to hit the ball out to all fields, and has not one but two three homer games in NCAA Tournament play to his name. The Fresno native is a patient hitter that works a lot of deep counts, leading to a ton of walks (17.4% rate in 2022) but there's a healthy amount of swing and miss in his game as well. He may always be a streaky hitter because of that, but when he's hot, it's a complete offensive profile. You can see the safety in him in the outfield, where his plus speed helps him track down fly balls, but safeties don't throw the football much and his arm is fringy. Because of that, a better defender may push him to left field, where he'll likely hit enough to play every day. The ceiling is an impact bat that could knock 25-30 or more home runs per year with high, walk-driven on-base percentages, while the floor would be a streaky, power hitting platoon bat.

CBB-70: SS Chandler Simpson, Georgia Tech. My rank: #86.
Slot value: $953,300. Signing bonus: $750,000 ($203,300 below slot value).
Hey, does anybody else remember the late 2000's "Running Rays" with Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Jason Bartlett? No? My brain may have invented the term. Anyways, Chandler Simpson is a fascinating prospect who could bring back the moniker, and funnily enough, he literally could not be more different than first rounder Xavier Isaac. Simpson is coming off a fantastic season at Georgia Tech in which he slashed .433/.506/.517 with nearly double as many walks (31) as strikeouts (16) over 47 games, then followed that up by hitting a near-identical .455/.510/.523 with five walks to just two strikeouts in twelve games in the Cape Cod League leading up to the draft. He stands out the most for his blazing speed as a true top of the scale runner that can change games from the batter's box, on the bases, or in the field. He gets to use it often, too, as he possesses elite bat to ball skills that help him put the ball in play with extreme consistency. Unfortunately, those elite bat to ball skills don't translate into any power, as he's much more of a slash and dash type that throws the barrel at the ball and lets his legs do the rest. You'll see a lot of ground balls and line drives over the infielders' heads, but outfielders typically won't have to worry about guarding the warning track and he hit just one home run in three years of college ball. The Atlanta native doesn't project to add much, either, but the good news is that he is such a good pure hitter that his approach should have little difficulty transitioning to pro pitching. The Rays drafted Simpson as a shortstop, but he doesn't quite have the arm strength to play there and profiles better at second base. They may also deploy him in center field, where his speed would be fantastic.

CBB-71: SS Ryan Cermak, Illinois State. My rank: #77.
Slot value: $929,500. Signing bonus: $750,000 ($179,500 below slot value).
The Rays had two competitive balance picks in a row and used the second one on Illinois State center fielder Ryan Cermak. He's a very interesting player that has steadily improved throughout his time in Normal, culminating in a breakout 2022 in which he slashed .340/.441/.696 with 19 home runs and a 44/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. Cermak is an exceptional athlete that can do a lot well on the diamond, with easy plus speed and a great 6'1" frame. There are some moving parts in his right handed swing, which combined with an aggressive approach at the plate leads to more swing and miss than you'd like to see from a hitter in a mid major conference, but he did cut his strikeout rate from 25.1% in 2021 to 19.2% in 2022 while upping his walk rate from 8.4% to 13.1%. The Chicago native has shown off plus power in games to go with his plus speed, and with pro instruction in a system as strong as Tampa's, I imagine he'll only get better at deploying it. Cermak also shows off a plus arm that will make him an asset in center field, though the Rays interestingly drafted him as a shortstop despite having never played the position in college. He was a full time center fielder in 2022 but did play 20 games at third base from 2020-2021. Overall, I see some Joey Wiemer in this profile, as Wiemer was also a right handed hitter from a mid major Midwestern school that flashed big tools but required significant refinement. He's off to a great start to his pro career in the Brewers system, and Cermak could follow a similar ascent.

3-104: RHP Trevor Martin, Oklahoma State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $588,700. Signing bonus: likely a bit under slot value.
Trevor Martin is one of those power arms with big stuff that he struggles to execute consistently, meaning he'll fit right in with the Rays and probably come out a stud. He was up and down in 2022, where he posted a 4.75 ERA and a 79/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.1 innings for Oklahoma State, but he finished the season on a strong note by striking out sixteen Missouri State batters in that wild 29-15 game at the Stillwater Regional. Martin can run his fastball up to 98 in relief with explosive life from a low release point with tough angle, a true weapon when he harnesses it. He spins off a power slider that flashes and can also drop in a curveball and changeup, but all three secondaries are inconsistent, as is his command. The 6'5", 240 pound righthander looks like a starting pitcher and with careful development, could become a very useful one. He grew up in a very small town in rural Oklahoma and is just a true sophomore, although a junior by age, and he'll be jumping into a player development system that thrives on pitchers with unique stuff. I'm curious to see how this one turns out.

4-134: C Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt. My rank: #116.
Slot value: $439,600. Signing bonus: likely around slot value.
Dominic Keegan combines elite batted ball data with huge traditional stats in the SEC, making him one of the most sought after senior bats in the class. He was eligible for the 2021 draft after hitting .345/.427/.638 with 15 home runs for a Vanderbilt team that reached the College World Series, but teams didn't quite match his asking price and with a late birthday that made him 20 on draft day, he returned to Nashville for another year. Keegan put up even bigger numbers in 2022, slashing .371/.458/.646 with 14 home runs and a 51/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games for an otherwise disappointing Vanderbilt team. The Massachusetts product stands out first and foremost for his massive raw power, a plus-plus tool that he taps effortlessly in games with a simple right handed hack. He just flicks the barrel through the zone, then before you know it, there's a baseball in your windshield even though you swore you parked far enough away. There were some swing and miss concerns last year when he struck out at a 27.7% clip, but he dropped that number to 18.5% this spring while showing the same big time impact. Vanderbilt is always deep behind the plate and has usually had a better glove to stick back there, but Keegan did look like he improved this year and he has a chance to stick. The Rays have an extremely deep farm system but are a bit shallow (by their high standards) behind the plate, which may give Keegan some extra opportunity to prove he's capable of holding down the position. A below average runner with an average arm, he would have to play a corner if he could not stick. Though he's a senior sign, his August birthday means he was still 21 on draft day.

5-164: SS Jalen Battles, Arkansas. My rank: #165.
Slot value: $328,400. Signing bonus: $247,500 ($80,900 below slot value).
First of all, Jalen Battles is one of the best names in the entire draft class, so that's a plus right there. As for the player, he's been a known commodity for a while now and earned some mid round interest a year ago, but returned to Arkansas to build his stock. That looks like it worked out, as Battles slashed .289/.364/.480 with ten home runs and a 57/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games for the Razorbacks this season. He does a lot of things well, starting with very strong defensive acumen at shortstop where his springy athleticism, strong arm, and advanced instincts make him a real asset. He's a line drive hitter at the plate that makes a lot of hard contact, with his lean strength leading to some solid pull side power that will help him provide impact as he moves up. Though he struck out at a 20.3% clip this spring, it's an overall advanced package that can provide value on both sides of the ball. His glove will carry him to the big leagues, while his bat will keep him there and provides some upside. I see a very strong utility infielder in this package with a chance for more. The San Antonio native was a senior sign and will turn 23 in the offseason, but could move relatively quickly.

6-194: RHP Gary Gill Hill, Kennedy Catholic HS [NY]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $255,500. Signing bonus: likely above slot value.
Another pick, another great name. This is a prospect I really wish I had on my radar prior to the draft, because looking into him now, it is an extremely fun profile that only gets better now that it's in the Tampa Bay player development system. Gary Gill Hill is a 6'2" righty just dripping with projection, with a frame that is both ultra skinny and ultra athletic. He's smooth and explosive on the mound, generating natural power from his long arms and legs. The fastball sits in the low 90's for now, touching the mid 90's, but I have no doubt that he'll add at least a couple ticks to that as he fills out if not more. Honestly, this is an arm that could sit in the mid 90's one day and regularly bump the upper 90's. The offspeed stuff requires more projection, with a nice sweepy slider that he needs to tighten up significantly and a distant changeup, but Hill is extremely young for the class with his 18th birthday not coming until September. He may spend a couple years in the FCL and move slowly up the ladder, but if the Rays get this right which they are certainly capable of, they could have a real impact arm on their hands. Committed to Wake Forest, the New Yorker will likely require a sizable over slot bonus to sign here.

9-284: LHP Chris Villaman, North Carolina State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $157,000. Signing bonus: likely around slot value, possibly a bit above.
Chris Villaman has filled a variety of roles at NC State, but settled in as a long reliever in 2022 with a 3.40 ERA and an 85/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.2 innings. He showed flashes of greatness throughout the season and closed it out with six perfect innings against Pittsburgh and UNC (eleven strikeouts) in the ACC Tournament. Villaman is a fastball/changeup type that sits in the low 90's with good carry, touching the mid 90's, hiding the ball well along the way. The changeup plays very well off the fastball and when both are working. he can be untouchable. The 6'2" lefty also adds a slider but it's not the bat misser you look for in a pro pitcher and will be a point of emphasis going forward. Villaman goes right after hitters and rarely hurts himself with walks, so if you squint, you can see a move back to the rotation if he improves his feel for spin. The Rays will work towards that, but if not, a tick up in fastball velocity could make the North Carolina native a very useful fastball/slider reliever.

17-524: LHP Levi Huesman, Hanover HS [VA]. My rank: #110.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely well above $125K if he signs.
Levi Huesman is a Coastal Carolina commit that seems likely to reach campus, but I don't see any obvious over slot candidates in the top ten rounds for the Rays aside from Gary Gill Hill and they may end up with money left over to make a run here. Huesman has been somewhat inconsistent, but at his best, he looks like a second round pick. His fastball can dip into the upper 80's at times but has touched as high as 96 at others, while his slider shows great sweeping action and his changeup is a distant third pitch. The Richmond-area native is a great mover on the mound that gets out and releases the ball out front with great riding action and flat angle, helping his fastball play up above his velocity. At just 5'10", Huesman is not the most physical player in the draft and he'll turn 19 in August, making him more than a year older than Gill Hill. He'll need to get significantly stronger to add power to his stuff and maintain it over longer outings and longer seasons, and he'll also need to refine his changeup to avoid a career in the bullpen.

Sunday, July 24, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

Full list of draftees

The Giants had a couple clear themes with his draft. First is that they started off with six consecutive pitchers (and ten pitchers in their first twelve picks), highlighted by two lefties at the top in Reggie Crawford and Carson Whisenhunt to join a strong core of left handed pitching prospects in the system like Kyle Harrison, Nick Swiney, Seth Lonsway, and Matt Mikulski. Power fastballs were the name of the game for most pitchers, with Crawford, William Kempner, and Liam Simon showing the ability to hit triple digits with impressive life, while Whisenhunt was more of an outlier in that he's more of a command/offspeed guy. When it came to position players, the Giants opted for hit over power it seems, playing it safe while they reached for the moon on high risk, high reward arms like Crawford and Simon. Interestingly enough, there was a big time West Coast vibe here that included two picks out of Fresno State and one each from Gonzaga, Oregon State, Saint Mary's, Pacific, Arizona, and Arizona State. I like to highlight one or two local picks in every writeup, and the Giants drafted five different players that grew up within an hour and a half drive of the San Francisco Bay so I had ample to choose from.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-30: LHP/1B Reggie Crawford, Connecticut. My rank: #47.
Slot value: $2.49 million. Signing bonus: likely around slot value.
I'm fascinated by this pick, as are most people that have seen Reggie Crawford play. While most prefer him as a pitcher, the Giants took him as a two-way player and we'll see how that plays out. He missed the 2022 season with Tommy John surgery, but he already has plenty of track record in the batter's box as a career .309/.362/.546 hitter at UConn with 14 home runs in 64 games, with big power from the left side and an aggressive approach that will need to be refined at the next level. There is honestly some Shohei Ohtani in the offensive profile as a big, defensively limited, power hitting lefty with a free swinging approach. He can certainly make it work as a hitter, though with pitching potentially as his primary focus, he'll likely always swing and miss at a high rate and it's not a given that he'll tap his power enough to play every day given that he'll be limited to first base. There is, however, a ton of upside on the mound and that's what I'm most interested in. The track record is extremely limited, but in 2021, he was nothing short of untouchable when he was on the mound. Between 7.2 innings with UConn, four with the College National Team, and two in the Cape Cod League (just 13.2 total, mostly against elite competition), he struck out 29 of the 53 batters he faced (54.7%!) and walked just four. Crawford does it with a mid to upper 90's fastball that can touch as high as 101 in short stints, exploding on hitters who also have to keep in mind a slider that flashes plus at its best. The delivery is very simple and could perhaps use a little refinement, but he has filled up the strike zone when he's been on the mound so the operation works well overall. The 6'4" lefty has a lot to prove if he wants to stick as a starter in pro ball, but the upside is massive with his electric stuff and special left arm. If the stuff or command ticks down too much once the Giants get him healthy and stretched out, it's pretty hard to not see him as an impact arm in the back of the bullpen anyways. To top it all off, Prospects Live has noted that scouts have dubbed him with "generational makeup," meaning he has an exceptional work ethic and could emerge as a true team leader down the road. There's a lot to love here.

2-66: LHP Carson Whisenhunt, East Carolina. My rank: #57.
Slot value: $1.05 million. Signing bonus: hard to peg, likely a little bit above slot value.
Carson Whisenhunt is a bit of a unique arm in this class because he did not pitch at all for East Carolina this spring, but not because he was hurt. Just before the season, he tested positive for a banned substance, which he claims to have taken by accident in one of his supplements. He returned in the Cape Cod League to mixed results, with a 7.87 ERA but a sharper 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 innings against elite competition. The 6'3" lefty was viewed as a fringe-first round talent by many outlets throughout the draft cycle, but opinions on him were split and it's hard to peg whether he'll require an above slot bonus and if so, by how much. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95 with some angle, but his real weapons are his offspeed pitches. Whisenhunt's changeup is among the best in the class, with huge fade to the arm side that sends even seasoned hitters flailing. His curveball is another pitch that could be above average, with deep two plane break. It all plays up because he possesses above average command of both the fastball and the offspeeds, enabling him to sequence more effectively and miss barrels. If San Francisco can play with his fastball a little bit to give it more life or add a tick of velocity, he has a real shot to be a mid-rotation starter for years to come. It's a really good get at the back of the second round, when most thought he would have been long gone off the board.

3-106: RHP William Kempner, Gonzaga. My rank: #136.
Slot value: $577,200. Signing bonus: likely around slot value.
Brandon Crawford (Pleasanton native) is 35 and likely nearing the twilight of his career, but the Giants could bring up another Bay Area product to rep Northern California, albeit in a very different role. William Kempner grew up in San Jose and attended Valley Christian High School down on the south side of town, then moved on to Gonzaga where he has turned into one of the harder throwers on the West Coast. He showed extremely well for almost the entire season, bringing a 0.81 ERA into his final start before Wright State blew him up for nine runs at the Blacksburg regional to balloon his final ERA to 3.00 while he struck out 48 and walked 21 over 36 innings. Kempner is an extremely unique arm, getting his fastball up to 100 at its best with nasty run and sink from a sidearm slot and sitting in the mid 90's as a starter. The fastball is his bread and butter, but the 6' righty also adds a sweeping slider and a good changeup, both of which flash above average. The command is fringy, as he tends to miss east-west due to his arm slot. In his delivery, Kempner rocks his weight back towards first base before pushing off into a high leg lift, working down the mound to produce a lot of power but with high effort. Combine all that together between the fringy command, high effort delivery, and stocky build, and he's probably destined for the bullpen, where I think the stuff could really play up. A three pitch righty that can touch 100 with nasty movement and throw a reasonable amount of strikes sounds good to me.

4-136: RHP Spencer Miles, Missouri. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $431,100. Signing bonus: likely below slot value.
The Giants took on a project in Spencer Miles, who showed well on the Cape last spring (2.54 ERA, 24/9 K/BB in 17.2 innings) but has otherwise been unremarkable at Missouri, posting a 6.27 ERA and a 122/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 career innings. Miles sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for the upper 90's, though it's an average running pitch that has been hit hard throughout his time in Columbia. His breaking balls are much better, with the bigger curveball diving across the zone and his tighter slider playing well off his fastball, and that combined with the arm strength is what the Giants are drafting him for. The 6'3" righty does a pretty good job of filling up the zone, and San Francisco will want him to fill up the zone with his breaking balls more often rather than pitching off the fastball like most amateur pitchers are taught to do. If that works out, Miles has some upside as a back end starter, perhaps more if the Giants can do something to get more life on his already high-velocity fastball. Otherwise, it will be easier to pitch of his breaking stuff in a bullpen role. Regardless, Miles turned 22 shortly after the draft and is therefore relatively old for a college junior, and he likely won't require full slot value to sign.

5-166: RHP Liam Simon, Notre Dame. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $322,600. Signing bonus: likely around slot value.
This pick is a bit reminiscent of Seth Lonsway last year, except that Liam Simon is right handed. He has truly explosive stuff, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and getting up into triple digits with a combination of steep angle and a ton of lift. While he does pitch off that fastball, it's such a good pitch that hitters are often fooled by his hard slider and he gets plenty of whiffs when he locates reasonably well. The problem, as with Lonsway, is that command. The big 6'4" righty has an exaggerated wrist curl in the back of his delivery and a very late arm, with the latter making it very difficult to repeat his arm slot with any consistency as he often casts and yanks pitches. That can make for very uncomfortable at bats for right handed hitters as upper 90's fastballs sail up and in, and it also led to middling results with a 4.99 ERA and a 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings this year as a swingman. For that reason the New Jersey product is certainly a reliever in pro ball, where he can continue to pitch off his fastball and perhaps only need moderate improvement in his command to become a high leverage reliever.

7-226: C Zach Morgan, Fresno State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $198,700. Signing bonus: likely around slot value, perhaps a bit below.
The Giants picked up another Northern Californian in Zach Morgan, a Central Valley product through and through that attended Lincoln High School on the north side of Stockton before heading down 99 to Fresno State for college. A redshirt junior that turned 22 in March, he broke out with a huge 2022 season in which he slashed .381/.454/.592 with eight home runs and a 17/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Morgan doesn't stand out on the field with an average 6' build and unremarkable physical tools, but he will never, ever miss a hittable pitch and that's his greatest strength. He makes a ton of contact early in the count, leading to a minuscule 6.7% strikeout rate this spring even as he bumped that ISO (isolated slugging percentage) up to .211. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard and any power he produces will come from the sheer volume of barreled baseballs rather than big time bat speed or strength, and he'll have no trouble barreling pro pitching. Morgan is an average defender on the other side that should stick with some work, giving him a good chance to become a backup catcher in San Francisco in the near future.

8-256: OF Wade Meckler, Oregon State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $168,500. Signing bonus: likely below slot value.
Keeping with the West Coast theme, the Giants grabbed Orange County native and Oregon State star Wade Meckler in the eighth round. Meckler didn't play much over his first two seasons in Corvallis, but showed well in 2021 before emerging as one of their best hitters in 2022, slashing .347/.456/.478 with two home runs and a 49/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. He's a very patient hitter that ran a walk rate north of 16% in 2022, spitting on bad pitches and working counts very well. It's a simple operation in the box with very little extra movement, in which he just flings the barrel at the ball and goes with the pitch rather than trying to wind up and uncork for power. That contact-oriented swing, plus the fact that he's only 5'10" anyways, is why he's only hit six home runs in 135 career games for the Beavers, but there is some whip in the barrel that leads me to believe he could trade some contact for power if he wanted to, not that I see any reason he should. He profiles as a fourth outfielder with limited upside due to the lack of power projection, but as a 22 year old senior sign who has excelled against high level pitching and in high pressure environments, he could move relatively quickly through the system.

16-496: 2B Andrew Kachel, Fresno State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: likely around $125,000.
We'll finish off with one last local product in Andrew Kachel, a graduate of Christopher High School on the north side of Gilroy out on 101. He's a three year performer out of Fresno State, where he's a career .312/.407/.563 hitter with 24 home runs and an 82/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games. He actually got off to a slow start in 2022 with just one hit against ten strikeouts over his first six games, but recovered well to finish right in line with his career numbers. A bit undersized at a skinny six feet tall, he does damage with strong barrel control from a rhythm-based bat waggle and a line drive approach. He also hit very well last summer in the California Collegiate League (.370/.473/.546) where his metal bat home runs manifested more often as doubles and triples. There is some swing and miss in Kachel's game but not too much to be concerned, and he profiles as a utility infield type that can get on base when you need him.