Sunday, September 29, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

While there's not much to cheer for at the major league level, the White Sox pulled in a star-studded draft class headlined by arguably the best amateur pitcher in the country, Hagen Smith. They pushed all the chips in with nearly $12.5 million spent on their first three picks, putting themselves almost $1.3 million above the corresponding slot values at that point but with their massive bonus pool were able to avoid major cost cutting measures for much of the draft aside from handing just $15K combined to their ninth and tenth round picks, Jack Young and Cole McConnell. It's a very diverse class that features everything from funky lefties to power arms to power bats to slap hitters, and while I didn't love every pick, I'm still impressed with the haul they brought away.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-5: LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $7.76 million. Signing bonus: $8 million ($236,300 above slot value).
My rank: #6. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #6.
Garrett Crochet shot from the SEC to the South Side of Chicago, and Hagen Smith has a very good chance to be the next lefty to do the same. He gained notoriety for an outstanding high school senior season in which he completely shut down East Texas hitters to a peep, tossing multiple no-hitters in the process, but made it to campus in Fayetteville because he was just a little too raw for teams to invest to his liking. At Arkansas, Smith has shaved more than a run off his ERA each season, from 4.66 to 3.64 to 2.04, and in 2024 was one of the best pitchers in the entire country. The stuff has gotten nastier and nastier, too. They say progress is never linear, but for Smith, it has been pretty dang linear. After reaching campus with a fastball around 90, he has gradually dialed it up and can now reach triple digits at peak, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's. The pitch has plenty of running action from a lower release point, and while the ride is just average, it misses a ton of bats regardless. His slider is his best pitch, an absolutely filthy breaking ball in which the bottom just drops out right before it gets to the plate, looking like a potential plus-plus pitch. He also throws a splitter at a much lower rate, and while it's inconsistent, it does flash above average potential. When Smith first got to campus, his delivery was disjointed and he struggled with command. After three years, it's still a bit funky but he repeats it much better and now shows fringe-average command. While he's still not pinpoint, the funk, which includes an exaggerated stab towards first base with his glove and an extreme cross-body arm path, does make his already nasty stuff all the more difficult to pick up. The 6'3" lefty has really filled out in school and now looks like a durable big league starting pitcher. While a funky two pitch lefty with fringy command might not be the most bulletproof starting pitching profile, those two pitches are so effective and his positive trajectory is so clear that he should be a pretty safe bet. Even as is, Smith has what it takes to be a mid-rotation starter. If he can bring the changeup along and continue improving his command (his walk rate did drop from 13.4% over his first two years to 10.3% in 2024), he has true ace potential. Chicago gave him three abbreviated starts at High A Winston-Salem, where he allowed three runs over 7.2 innings while striking out seven and walking two.

2-43: SS Caleb Bonemer, Okemos HS [MI] {video}
Slot value: $2.17 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($827,200 above slot value).
My rank: #35. MLB Pipeline: #71. Baseball America: #36.
Chicago pushed their bonus pool chips in on this one, signing Caleb Bonemer away from a UVA commitment for more than $800,000 above slot value, just over the slot value of the #30 pick here at #43. Bonemer rode a huge 2023 summer to the top of the prep class, earning buzz as high as the middle of the first round entering the 2024 season. He had to wait for the Michigan winter to thaw while other preps further south had a chance to push their profiles forward early in the spring, then had a more good than great senior season to fall back a tick. Still his immense raw talent and the summer performance were not lost on Chicago evaluators, who see him as a legitimate impact talent. Bonemer can whip the barrel through the zone with the best of them, showing plenty of bat speed from twitchy hips and wrists to create above average power that could eventually become plus as he fills out his 6'1" frame. As a cold weather bat, he didn't see much elite pitching until recently, and his approach remains raw even if it hasn't hurt him much yet. Bonemer will need more reps against advanced arms to get acclimated and that creates some risk. The Lansing native is an above average runner with the body control to play shortstop, so he has a real shot to stay there if he doesn't slow down with age. Many see Bonemer as a third baseman long term, where he could be an above average defender. Overall, he has a shot to hit 20-30 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages and good infield defense, perhaps somewhere in between Jonathan Schoop and Ian Desmond.

CBB-68: LHP Blake Larson, IMG Academy [FL] {video}
Slot value: $1.2 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($200,300 above slot value).
My rank: #100. MLB Pipeline: #104. Baseball America: #121.
This is a really fun arm for the White Sox, who went above slot again to sign Blake Larson away from a TCU commitment. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with nasty running and sinking action from a low three quarters, almost sidearm slot. His slider shows heavy sweep across the plate and can tie up hitters with regularity, while his changeup has made progress at IMG and is looking like it will be ready for pro ball. Larson, like Hagen Smith, is a funky lefty that makes life difficult on hitters. He has a big, high leg kick leading into that low arm slot, with a ton of athleticism that helps him explode towards the plate and put a plenty of movement on all his pitches. It's a really elastic delivery that promises to channel any strength gains into additional velocity, with plenty of room to add weight to his skinny, projectable 6'2" frame. For now, his command is fringy as he's still learning to repeat that delivery and harness his explosive stuff, and that will be a major point of development for Chicago. The Des Moines native has a ton of upside and joins an organization that has had a ton of success with funky lefties, from Chris Sale to Garrett Crochet to Noah Schultz to now hopefully Smith and Larson. It may take Larson longer to get to the bigs but he has mid rotation upside.

3-78: OF Nick McLain, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: $996,100. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($196,100 below slot value).
My rank: #185. MLB Pipeline: #129. Baseball America: #208.
Nick McLain comes from a baseball family to say the least. His oldest brother, Matt, put up a strong rookie year for the Reds in 2023 while his other older brother, Sean, reached High A with the hometown Dodgers this year. Nick now makes it three for three on the McLain boys getting drafted in the top five rounds, a success rate I'm certain my future kids will match. Matt played at UCLA and Sean played at Arizona State, so naturally Nick began his career at UCLA and later transferred to Arizona State after one year (though he didn't play with either brother in school). Listed at 5'10", 190 pounds with just average athleticism, his tools don't jump off the page but the whole is greater than the sum of his parts. He has a professional approach at the plate that helps him make a ton of contact with a compact, efficient right handed swing, and his approach played up in the Cape Cod League where he hit .287/.380/.426 against elite pitching last summer. McLain does not have big raw power, registering below average top-end exit velocities, but he accesses what power he does have in games by elevating with authority. That gives him a shot to hit 10-15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages at peak. The Southern California native has average defensive tools and likely fits in right field long term, where there will be pressure on his switch hitting bat, though he can move a little bit and the White Sox may try to see what he can do in center field. McLain most likely profiles as a fourth outfielder who can handle the corners well, though it remains to be seen if he can continue to access enough power with wood bats to play every day.

4-107: OF Casey Saucke, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $682,800. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($164,700 above slot value).
My rank: #140. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #145.
Continuing to dip further into the bonus pool, Chicago handed Casey Saucke a signing bonus fit for the #88 pick here at #107. Saucke burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season at UVA, then saw his stock dip after a quieter sophomore season and a rough run through the Cape Cod League (.185/.254/.241). However, a big junior season in 2024 put him back on the map for early draft conversations. He's big and physical at 6'3", 210 pounds, having filled out nicely during his time in Charlottesville. Though his right handed swing isn't the prettiest, with a deep barrel tip towards the backstop and a bit of a jerky load, he unleashes above average to plus raw power with impressive top end exit velocities. The hit tool is a bit more questionable, as he chases at a very high rate, especially against breaking balls, and therefore doesn't always control his at bats well against higher level pitching. Last summer on the Cape, he struck out 23.7% of the time, which isn't terrible but is higher than you'd like. Still, he's a career .332/.410/.524 hitter at UVA that was at his best in 2024 and has made his aggressive approach work in Charlottesville. If he can reign it in just a little, he has enough bat to ball ability to make use of his power and knock 20-25 home runs per season with lower on-base percentages, perhaps in a Randal Grichuk mold. Saucke is a better athlete than Grichuk, showing above average speed that he has held onto as he's filled out. If the Rochester, New York native can maintain that speed going forward, he has a shot to play center field adequately. If not, or if the White Sox go with quicker options up the middle, his above average arm could make him a nice value add in right field. Saucke is young for a college junior, having turned 21 after the draft, and was one of the more projectable college bats available this year. If he can get the approach under control, he has every day upside. He showed well in his pro debut, effectively handling an aggressive assignment to High A Winston-Salem by hitting .290/.333/.398 with a pair of home runs and a 26/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games.

5-140: SS Sam Antonacci, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: $495,400. Signing bonus: $572,500 ($77,100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #201. Baseball America: #299.
Sam Antonacci is the opposite of Casey Saucke, but gives them another over slot signing. A hometown kid, he grew up in Springfield, Illinois where he attended Sacred Heart-Griffin High School. He started his career at Heartland JC in Normal, just down the road from Illinois State, where he was a one man wrecking crew hitting .490/.585/.863 with 28 home runs and just 44 strikeouts over 120 games for the Hawks. I think the NJCAA kicked him out and told him to never come back because it simply wasn't a fair fight, so he transferred to Coastal Carolina this year and kept on hitting to the tune of a .367/.523/.504 line in 61 games. While Saucke is a projectable power hitter, Antonacci is purely a contact bat. He combines an ultra patient approach at the plate with elite bat to ball ability, leading to some of the highest contact rates in college baseball. While Saucke chased about 31% of the time, Antonacci was closer to 13%. Antonacci's passive approach often got him into deep counts in 2024, and 38.2% of his plate appearances ended without a ball in play, either by walk (16.3%), strikeout (13.1%), or hit by pitch (8.8%). If you think 8.8% of the time is a lot to get hit by a pitch, that's because his 27 finished sixth in Division I. When he does swing, it's a simple, quick strike gash at the ball where he goes with the pitch and sprays it out to all fields effectively. While he slugged .863 in JuCo ball, Antonacci preferred not to turn on the ball at Coastal and hit just six home runs, though his exit velocity data does point to potential below average power that could mean 5-10 home runs per season in the majors. A third baseman at Coastal, he likely slides over to second base in pro ball where his arm will fit better, but he should stay on the dirt without issue despite fringy speed. He profiles as a utility infielder who can get on base consistently despite being a one tool player.

9-259: RHP Jack Young, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $199,200. Signing bonus: $7,500 ($191,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
A money saving senior sign, Jack Young gives the White Sox another local Midwest kid. A native of Le Claire, Iowa, right over the river from Illinois in the Quad Cities region, he attended Pleasant Valley High School in Bettendorf then started off his college career at Parkland JC in Champaign. He actually pitched against Sam Antonacci there, who promptly homered off of Young like he did every other pitcher he faced in JuCo. After two years at Parkland, Young returned to his home state and spent the past two seasons at Iowa, where in 2024 he grew into the Hawkeyes' most reliable reliever. What he lacks in power, he makes up for in deception and movement. The fastball rarely tops 90 even in short stints, but plays above its velocity because of his sidearm slot and the wicked running action he puts on the ball. He also works in the opposite direction with a huge sweeping slider that dives across the plate, forcing hitters to cover a massive east-west range. Young also pounds the strike zone and shows above average command, which helps him execute despite the lack of power. He'll need to find an extra gear in pro ball to continue to get advanced hitters out, but it's a different look that could work his way into middle relief in Chicago in short order if he does.

13-379: RHP Pierce George, Alabama {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($47,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: #209. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #213.
This pick is a gamble as the White Sox dipped into their bonus pool again, but Pierce George brings much more upside than you'd typically get from a college arm for under $200K. He started off close to home at Texas, but only heard his name called three times and walked four of the eleven hitters he faced. He transferred to Alabama in search of more playing time and got it to a degree, making fifteen appearances in 2024 but still walking 18% of his opponents. As you might expect, George has absolutely wicked stuff. The fastball sits in the upper 90's and touches as high as 102 with running life, blowing past hitters when he can get it near the zone. He drops in a power slider in the upper 80's that can make hitters look silly, especially since they're geared up for triple digits. He also has bottom of the scale command, struggling to harness his explosive stuff and spending more time behind in the count than ahead. That command is slowly improving, with *small sample* walk rates dropping from 36.4% as a freshman to 18.0% as a sophomore to 11.1% on the Cape leading up to the draft, and if he can get to even 40 grade (below average) command, he has a shot to be a real weapon in the bullpen. We'll also have to watch out for health, as you would with anybody who throws that hard. Given his limited workload in college, he was one of the few pitchers the White Sox got on the mound in minor league games this spring and in six appearances he allowed six runs (four earned) over six innings, striking out five and walking three (another small sample walk rate improvement – now down to 10.7%) for Low A Kannapolis.

17-499: 1B Lyle Miller-Green, Austin Peay {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $25,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #450.
If you think you've heard of circuitous routes to pro ball, just wait until you hear this story. Oleg Sergevich Kornev was born in Tomsk, a remote Siberian town almost 1800 miles east of Moscow, then had his name changed to Lyle Miller-Green when he was adopted by an American family. Raised going to Jewish day school in Northern Virginia, he initially committed to Virginia Tech as a pitcher before coaching changes led him to stay home and attend nearby George Mason instead. After playing both ways for the Patriots in 2020, he headed south to Chipola JC in Florida for 2021 to strong results, then transferred west to Oklahoma State for the 2022 season. He didn't play much for the Cowboys, so he came back east to his fifth school in five years (if you include high school) and finally settled in at Austin Peay in Tennessee. All he did for the Governors was blast 46 home runs over two seasons while throwing over one hundred innings on the mound, bombarding his way into the White Sox organization. This is a 6'5", 235 pound Siberian man with gargantuan raw power, registering elite top-end exit velocities in line with the best hitters in college baseball. He tapped that power in games, too, as one of just five Division I hitters to reach thirty home runs in 2024 and the only one to do so while playing fewer than sixty games. His .900 slugging percentage, too, was good for third in Division I behind only first overall pick Travis Bazzana (1.009) and third overall pick Charlie Condon (.911). He tapped that power against top competition on the Cape, too, blasting 14 home runs and slashing .253/.369/.454 over 85 games across three seasons. Beyond that, though Austin Peay doesn't play the most difficult schedule, he did get six games against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and Auburn in 2024 and went 10-24 (.417 AVG) with four home runs and just three strikeouts, so you between that and the Cape you can't call his numbers solely a product of weak competition. All that said, there is some swing and miss in his game. He struck out nearly a third of the time in his three Cape seasons and ran middling contact rates at Austin Peay, and he will be tested in pro ball. LMG is also one of the oldest players taken in this draft, having turned 24 a couple months after the draft and he'll want to move quickly. Though he pitched in college and can reach 95 with his fastball, his below average speed and athleticism will limit him to first base in pro ball, putting additional pressure on his bat. Miller-Green profiles best as a power hitting bench bat that gets playing time against left handed pitching, but for just $25K I really like this find in the seventeenth round. He had mixed results in his pro debut at Low A Kannapolis, where he slashed .219/.351/.375 with two home runs and a 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games against younger competition.

Saturday, September 28, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Kansas City Royals

Full list of draftees

The Royals got things rolling with a bang, bringing in arguably the most exciting amateur player in the country in Jac Caglianone with their first pick. From there, it was overwhelmingly a pitching-heavy class, grabbing fourteen pitchers with their next sixteen picks. While Caglianone can hit triple digits with his fastball, many of the Royals pitching picks showed polish and deep arsenals with the ability to move quickly towards Kansas City. The class was also pretty straightforward in terms of the bonus pool, with no player coming in more than $200,000 above or $150,000 below slot value.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-6: 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida {hittingpitching}
Slot value: $7.21 million. Signing bonus: $7.5 million ($286,200 above slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #3. Baseball America: #5.
If you've watched any college baseball at all, you know Jac Caglianone. If you don't, then you should know that "Cagliohtani" is one of the most fascinating prospects and quite possibly the greatest baseball talent in this draft. A gangly teenager at H.B. Plant High School in Tampa, alma mater of Wade Boggs, Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonso, and many others, he garnered considerable interest for the 2021 draft but followed Alonso's path to Florida, where he exploded as one of the top prospects in the game. After blasting 33 home runs in 71 games as a sophomore and slugging .738 in the process, he took another step forward and slashed a ridiculous .419/.544/.875 with 35 home runs in 66 games as a junior. The power is, frankly, silly. Caglianone has completely filled out his extra long frame and now clocks in at a hefty 6'6", 250 pounds, using those long arms and powerful torso to rip the bat through the zone with frightening force. He can effortlessly flick the ball out to any field, and even his mishits will carry over the fence, then when he really turns on one, he can flat out obliterate a baseball. This is gargantuan, 80 grade power, and you don't hit 68 home runs in 137 games over two seasons by accident. Heading into 2024, the primary wart in Caglianone's profile was his aggressive approach at the plate, leading to a suboptimal 18.2% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate a year ago. He remained ultra, ultra aggressive in 2024, chasing nearly 40% of the time, but he cleaned up the pure swing and miss in a big way and dropped his strikeout rate by more than half, all the way down to 8.2%. He actually has plus bat to ball skills, which combined with the wildly aggressive approach, still lead to an above average hit tool. Because he rarely misses in the zone, pitchers didn't give him much to hit and he still walked 18.4% of the time despite swinging at virtually everything. He recognizes spin and won't be fooled by professional offspeed stuff, though if you get him right you can blow a fastball by him up in the zone due to his long levers and therefore longer swing. There is 40 homer upside here, though it remains to be seen whether his approach gets him in trouble in pro ball in a way that it never did in the SEC. Defensively, he'll be limited to first base with the below average speed that naturally comes with weighing 250 pounds. That said, the Royals announced Caglianone as a two-way player and his arm talent alone could have landed him in the first round as well. He didn't pitch as a freshman, but he struck out 170 and made 34 starts over the last two seasons for the Gators and could easily become a major league starter if he focused on that aspect of his game. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that has hit triple digits (here's 99) with plenty of armside run, though the pitch lacks bat missing ride and relies on velocity to do so. The velocity has been inconsistent, which you might expect from a two-way guy, though he can work it into a cutter to get a different look. He throws a tight slider in the mid 80's that can approach 90 at his best, though it stands out more for its velocity than its movement, and he actually adds a pretty solid changeup that was a consistent, above average weapon for him in 2024. Caglianone comes from a big, crossfire delivery and doesn't always keep his long arms and legs in sync, leading to below average command, high walk rates, and inconsistent performance on the mound. There is no doubt in my mind that should he focus solely on pitching, he could tick up that command and get more consistent with his offspeed stuff, giving him the upside of a #2 or #3 starter. Given the lightning in his bat, though, that seems unlikely and his most likely path to stardom will be as a power hitting first baseman. Unsurprisingly, he didn't pitch in his pro debut after tossing 73.2 innings for Florida, but he did hit .241/.302/.388 with two home runs and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at High A Quad Cities.

2-41; LHP David Shields, Mount Lebanon HS [PA] {video}
Slot value: $2.28 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($22,000 above slot value).
My rank: #61. MLB Pipeline: #41. Baseball America: #60.
Few teams love prep pitching like the Royals do, and David Shields was the big fish for them in this draft cycle and will head west to Kansas City rather than south to follow his Miami commitment. While explosive fastballs and wipeout breaking balls are all the rage right now, Shields represents more of a traditional high school pitching prospect. His fastball sits around 90 and only tops out at 94, though it does play up with running and riding action. His best pitch is a deep slider that shows very nice finish and looks above average, while his solid changeup gives him a third big league pitch. For now, everything plays up because Shields commands the ball well and can execute on both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, overwhelming high school hitters and likely easing the transition to pro ball. The 6'2" lefty has a simple, repeatable delivery and brings quarterback athleticism to the mound, making for a very well-rounded profile. The next step will be adding power across his arsenal, which with the projection remaining on his athletic frame and his extreme youth (he did not turn 18 until more than a month after the draft), seems highly likely. If Shields can get to something like the 92-94 range on his fastball and bump his slider into the mid 80's, he has #2 or #3 starter upside. If not, he'll settle in as more of a back-end innings eater type.

3-76: RHP Drew Beam, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $1.03 million. Signing bonus: $1.1 million ($69,800 above slot value).
My rank: #54. MLB Pipeline: #64. Baseball America: #41.
Drew Beam brings a very interesting combination of stuff and polish, and he's a really nice get that I did not think would be available on day two of the draft. He has been a force to be reckoned with in the Tennessee rotation for three years now, making 51 starts and tossing 262.2 innings for the Vols while facing over a thousand hitters. The ERA did go up each year, and he wasn't always at his best in 2024, but he'll take the ball every turn in the rotation and give you length. And when he's on, he looks like a surefire big league starter. Beam sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but can reach back for 98 at peak, though as more of a running fastball than a riding one from a high release point it plays down a bit from that velocity. He can sink it or cut it as needed, though those variations are mostly average and he relies mostly on commanding the ball. He can work the cutter into more of a true slider to pick up a little extra sweep, though his primary breaking ball is a deep two-plane curveball that does a great job of freezing hitters and stealing strikes. Beam rounds things out with a changeup that could be above average with a little refinement, giving him a deep arsenal with which to attack hitters. The 6'4" righty is extremely durable and throws with a clean, repeatable delivery that helps him pound the strike zone with plus control, though his command is more average and he can get hit over the plate. You could argue that Beam's delivery lacks some deception, which in combination with the average stuff led to an unremarkable 22.7% strikeout rate this year. He stands out as a potential #4 starter who can eat innings, work his way through lineups, and keep hitters off balance while attacking the zone and running his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, while scouts also praise his makeup, baseball IQ, and mound presence. This is an old school bulldog starting pitcher.

4-105: RHP LP Langevin, Louisiana {video}
Slot value: $696,300. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($98,800 below slot value).
My rank: #148. MLB Pipeline: #230. Baseball America: #155.
If Drew Beam is an old school pitching prospect, then LP Langevin is new school to the max. A Quebec City native, he spent two years at Wabash Valley JC in southern Illinois before transferring to Louisiana this year, where he pitched mostly in long relief and at times looked downright dominant. During a ten appearance stretch from March 19th to April 26th, he allowed just two earned runs over 24.2 innings (0.73 ERA) while allowing just six hits and five walks (0.45 WHIP) and striking out 51 of the 88 batters he faced (58%!). Langevin finds his success on the back of an elite fastball, one which sits in the low to mid 90's in relief with peaks around 96 but which plays up with wicked running and riding action from a low release point. The pitch was so deceptive that it ran some of the best whiff rates in the country, completely overwhelming Sun Belt hitters and later MLB Draft League hitters this summer. Right now, the fastball is the show, as his slider and changeup are more change of pace options than anything else. The slider gets short, tight bite and the changeup shows some fade, but neither are true strikeout pitches and he leans heavily on the fastball. Langevin also commands his fastball much better than his offspeeds, and with some effort in his delivery he likely profiles as a reliever long term. If the Royals can do something with his secondary pitches, he could become an impact relief arm and chew through big league hitters, but just the fastball alone should get him to the majors in some capacity. He was very young for the class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft.

5-138: RHP AJ Causey, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $505,000. Signing bonus: $477,500 ($27,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #242. Baseball America: #435.
Not only will Drew Beam and AJ Causey travel from Knoxville to Kansas City together, they actually grew up playing travel ball together. Causey spent his first two college seasons at Jacksonville State, then transferred to Tennessee and worked in a variety of roles for the Vols, tying for the NCAA Division I lead with thirteen wins. He's a sidearmer that sits around 90 with his fastball, touching 93 with a ton of running action. He works his breaking ball between a curveball and a slider, with both showing big, deep sweep across the plate despite a lack of power. He turns over an excellent changeup as well, giving him the ability to get both lefties and righties out unlike many sidearmers. Command is another selling point, as Causey works back and forth across the plate extremely well and walked just 5.9% of the batters he faced across three years in college. That gives him a much, much better chance to start than the typical sidearmer, as does his durability and his ability to repeat his funky delivery. The delivery is funky beyond just the slot, as the 6'3" righty actually comes across his body and strides towards first base, not the plate, creating separation between his upper and lower halves to whip the ball to the plate. If Causey could add a little power across his arsenal, he could be a weapon at the big league level, but even as is he has a shot to work his way up as a back-end starter or long reliever. This is a nice sleeper for the Royals.

6-167: RHP Tanner Jones, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $382,100. Signing bonus: $379,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #484.
Like AJ Causey, Tanner Jones started off with two years at Jacksonville State, then transferred to the SEC. Jones didn't have the same success at Texas A&M that Causey found at Tennessee, but he'll join his former teammate in Kansas City nonetheless. Jones is a very different pitcher, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 97 with his fastball, which plays up further because he gets great extension down the mound to create a low release point. He has a hard cutter in the upper 80's that looks like a potential above average pitch and plays nicely off his fastball, though when he loosens it into a more traditional sweeper it doesn't miss many bats. Jones rounds things out with a changeup, which projects as average. The 6'2" righty is a solid strike thrower that doesn't hurt himself with walks, and that combined with his deep arsenal and sturdy frame gives him a chance to start. At this point, he needs to find a way to miss more bats with his secondary stuff if he wants to remain in that role, and probably does look more like a reliever long term. Jones' arm strength and extension are the draws here and the Royals will look to bring that secondary stuff along.

10-287: LHP Nate Ackenhausen, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $186,200. Signing bonus: $47,500 ($138,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Nate Ackenhausen brings a semi-local arm to Kansas City. He grew up in Owasso, Oklahoma, a northeastern suburb of Tulsa, where he attended Owasso High School before moving on to Eastern Oklahoma State JC in Wilburton. After two downright dominant seasons with the Mountaineers, he transferred to LSU and was a valuable swingman for two years in Baton Rouge. Ackenhausen works with a low 90's fastball that gets up to around 94-95, then adds a full arsenal of secondaries including a slider, curveball, and changeup. Nothing stands out as plus, and he also doesn't have pinpoint command with walk rates north of 10% both years in Baton Rouge. Instead, the crafty lefty relies on changing speeds and executing all four pitches, working to stay ahead in counts and forcing hitters to come up empty on their swings more than they might expect. He's a big, burley lefty at a listed 6'2", 255 pounds, looking plenty durable to handle the rigors of pro ball. Given the lack of a standout pitch in his arsenal as well as his advanced age (he turned 23 a couple months after the draft), Ackenhausen fits better in long relief than in a starting role, but he could move very quickly as a polished college arm with plenty of big game experience.

14-407: RHP Kyle DeGroat, Wallkill HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($197,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #239. Baseball America: unranked.
With a little extra money to throw around, the Royals picked up another interesting young prep arm from New York's Hudson Valley region in the fourteenth round, signing him away from a Texas commitment for sixth round money. Kyle DeGroat is an up arrow guy that has gotten more physical and added power across his arsenal, now looking like a legitimate starting pitching prospect. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, with running and riding action to carry it past barrels. He snaps off a tight slider with late bite that could become an above average pitch in time as he refines it further. DeGroat adds in a changeup, though he doesn't use it much and will need to build it up in pro ball. The 6'1" righty has a physical frame, hides the ball well, and looks the part of a big league starting pitcher. While there's no outlier trait here, DeGroat does a lot well and gives the Royals a broad array of starter traits to work with. He's got increased physicality, he gets good movement on his fastball, and has shown increasing aptitude for offspeed while throwing strikes.

18-527: OF Corey Cousin, Slidell HS [LA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($197,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Royals made one last big splash by signing Corey Cousin to the same sixth round signing bonus at Kyle DeGroat, one of the few position players in this class for Kansas City. Previously committed to Oklahoma much like current superstar Bobby Witt, he brings big time upside not often found this late in the draft. Cousins is a strong athlete oozing with tools, showing good power from a whippy right handed swing that could grow into above average or plus as he fills out his 6' frame. He makes plenty of contact for now, and could really grow into a complete hitter, though his track record against top competition is more limited. He's also a plus runner with the chance to man center field for the Royals, and his fastball has been up to 91 on the mound. Cousin won't pitch for the Royals, but quitting pitching and focusing on hitting could push his overall game forward quicker than others. The New Orleans-area product is also very young for the class, not turning 18 until more than two months after the draft, so he really is an intriguing ball of clay for the Royals to mold. Cousin has a long way to go and is far from a guarantee to reach Kauffman Stadium, but he could impact the game in a lot of ways if things do click.

Thursday, September 26, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

Full list of draftees

Lacking a second round pick after signing Sonny Gray, the Cardinals targeted exclusively college players (nineteenth rounder Brendan Lawson, a high schooler, was never expected to sign) and in their typical fashion went for advanced college players at that. The pitchers mostly exhibited strong starter traits with deep arsenals and a history of filling up the zone, while hitters showed both contact and power ability with sneaky strong underlying metrics and plate discipline. I also found it interesting that each of their first four picks were below six feet tall and ultimately half of all players they signed had heights beginning with a five, including a pair at 5'8" in fourth rounder Ryan Campos and tenth rounder Bryce Madron. Unlike many teams, St. Louis more or less took the slot values at face value, never going more than $171,000 above slot value or more than $164,500 below.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-7: 3B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia {video}
Slot value: $6.82 million. Signing bonus: $6.9 million ($76,300 above slot value).
My rank: #3. MLB Pipeline: #4. Baseball America: #3.
Right off the bat, this looks like a steal for the Cardinals because there is no reason JJ Wetherholt should have been available at pick #7, and for just about slot value to boot. He burst into the national conversation with a massive sophomore season in which he hit .449/.517/.787 (!) in 55 games, then followed it up by hitting .321/.406/.571 against elite pitching in the Cape Cod League and struck out just once in 32 plate appearances. He entered the 2024 season firmly in the conversation for the first overall pick as a virtual consensus top-three prospect in the class. Unfortunately he made it just four games before his hamstring flared back up and knocked him out for two months, ultimately limiting him to 36 games on the season. Still, while he didn't match his 2023 numbers, he hit well enough upon his return (despite still being hobbled by the nagging hamstring) to play himself back up to #3 on my board. This dude is a straight up ballplayer. Listed at 5'10", 190 pounds with merely above average athleticism, he might not catch your eye at first, at least not until you watch him play. Wetherholt is an elite contact hitter that combines an outright refusal to chase with plus pure bat to ball skills, so he never strikes out – just 9% over the last two seasons, an elite rate. In order to make that kind of contact, most hitters have to sacrifice power and get slappy, but not Wetherholt. There's real juice in the bat as well, with above average raw power that he taps every bit of in games. The Pittsburgh-area native just drops his hands to the ball and wallops it to all fields, with elite feel for the barrel helping him square it up virtually every time. His pitch recognition is also a major factor in his hitting ability, as he does damage against both velocity and offspeed. Wetherholt is also an above average runner with excellent instincts on the basepaths, helping him play more like a plus runner when his hamstring is healthy. He's not quite explosive enough to play shortstop and most project him at second base, where his average arm fits better, though the Cardinals interestingly drafted him as a third baseman. The glovework is sound and will play anywhere on the infield. To top it off, Wetherholt is renowned for his work ethic, leaving evaluators more than confident he'll maximize his skills in pro ball. The whole package reminds me a lot of peak Daniel Murphy with more speed – that's to say 20-25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases. He took well to minor league pitching, slashing .295/.405/.400 with a pair of home runs and a 15/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at Low A Palm Beach.

3-80: RHP Brian Holiday, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $964,500. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($164,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #223. Baseball America: #156.
This is a classic Cardinals pick. A Tampa native, Brian Holiday began his career at Florida Southwestern State JC, transferred to Central Florida JC as a sophomore, then wound up across the country at Oklahoma State for his junior season. He only got one season in Stillwater, but in it he was one of the best pitchers in the Big 12 and enters pro ball as one of the most advanced 21 year olds in the class. The stuff is pretty ordinary all around, beginning with a low 90's fastball that tops out around 95 with above average riding life from a lower release point. He leans heavily on an above average slider with a nice combination of depth and bite, while he shows a get me over curveball and an average changeup as well. Everything plays up, though, because of his pitchability. Holiday has above average command but beyond that, he fearlessly attacks the zone with all of his pitches and is comfortable throwing anything in any count. He consistently keeps hitters off balance and his feel for his slider is particularly impressive, executing it consistently in and out to rack up the strikeouts. Holiday is consistently working ahead in the count where he can be in control, making for a true starting pitcher profile. The 5'11" righty lacks projection but he has been plenty durable, finishing second in Division I with 113 innings pitched and pitching into the ninth inning in each of his last three starts. Holiday should move quickly and become a back-end starter for the Cardinals in the near future.

4-109: C Ryan Campos, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: $669,300. Signing bonus: $669,300.
My rank: #175. MLB Pipeline: #176. Baseball America: #181.
In Ryan Campos, the Cardinals might have just picked up the most consistent hitter in the Pac-12 over the last three seasons. He never hit below .357 in any season and never posted an on-base percentage below .430, finishing at a career .369/.464/.554 in 147 games. Campos is undersized at just a stocky 5'8", but he packs plenty of punch and grades out very well metrically. His most impressive attribute is his elite bat to ball ability, especially in the zone where he virtually never whiffs. He's a pretty patient hitter too, so it's extremely difficult to get the ball by him when he forces you into the zone and he never strikes out. Despite his diminutive stature, Campos shows average power from a compact left handed swing as he finds the barrel virtually every time. That mostly translates into doubles power for now, with his 25 tying him for seventh in college baseball, though I don't necessarily see him growing into more than 10-15 homer power in the majors. It was only six games, but he struggled in his brief time on the Cape by slashing .136/.240/.136 and striking out a third of the time. That dents the offensive numbers he put up in Tempe, which is a very hitter-friendly environment, but there's no reason to think the Phoenix-area native won't continue to hit in pro ball. While he's built like an old school catcher, he's a bit choppy behind the plate and will need to work hard to become a playable major league backstop. There's not a ton of arm either, but the Cardinals clearly believe in his ability to stay a catcher. The bat looks a lot better there, as he'll likely find himself as more of a tweener type if he's forced to move to left field. His Arizona State bat showed up in his first taste of minor league ball, slashing .319/.396/.407 with an even 13/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games for Low A Palm Beach.

5-142: LHP Braden Davis, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $485,700. Signing bonus: $485,700.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #345.
Returning to the Sooner State for another arm, the Cardinals went to Norman instead this time for Braden Davis. He spent his first two seasons at Sam Houston State, where he served as a lockdown reliever with a 2.47 ERA and a 30.1% strikeout rate across 35 appearances. Transferring to Oklahoma in 2024, he jumped into the rotation and performed admirably, headlining his season with a complete game shutout of TCU to open the Big 12 Tournament. Davis sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out at 95, playing up with riding and running life from a fairly low slot. It's almost a mirror image of Brian Holiday's fastball from the left side, except his runs just a bit more. He gets good results from a solid slider and shows a get-me-over curveball, but his best pitch is a plus changeup with massive fading action. He throws the changeup liberally and will continue to lean heavily on it in pro ball. Davis' command is fringy and he ran an ugly 17.1% walk rate on the Cape over the summer (but otherwise shined with a 31.0% strikeout rate), but he kept it around the zone effectively in Norman where he kept the walk rate to a reasonable 10.2%. The DFW native has a shot to continue starting in pro ball due to his deep arsenal and durable, if a bit undersized, 5'11" frame, but he'll have to hold his command together in order to do so. In the bullpen, his fastball could tick up a bit and he could pitch off that big changeup, providing a unique lefty weapon who can get hitters out from both sides of the plate.

6-171: 1B Josh Kross, Cincinnati {video}
Slot value: $369,100. Signing bonus: $369,100.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
St. Louis went off the beaten path a little bit for Josh Kross. Like Brian Holiday, he has bounced around quite a bit. He started off at Toledo but didn't play, so he transferred to Eastern Michigan and put up a massive 2023 season to earn MAC Freshman of the Year honors. He transferred once more to Cincinnati in 2024, where he had another strong season and pushed himself into the sixth round. He's actually the first Cardinals draftee this year to crack six feet tall, clocking in at 6'2" and packed with strength. The switch hitter has above average raw power that he taps extremely consistently in games, having blasted 34 home runs over the past two seasons, with excellent ability to turn on the ball and elevate it to the pull side. The Cleveland-area product makes pretty good contact, too, helping keep his strikeout rate to a reasonable 15.1% despite his pull-oriented approach. It's actually a really nice all-around offensive profile, and he makes up for a slightly lower walk rate by getting hit by a ton of pitches, his 26 in 2024 good for ninth in Division I. Kross has a chance to hit for average and power at the major league level and proved himself with wood bats in the New England Collegiate Baseball League this summer before the draft. That's important because he'll be limited to first base, where pressure will be all on his bat. He did catch some in college but it appears the Cardinals are not going to go that route. In his pro debut, he slashed .216/.383/.311 with a 10/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at Low A Palm Beach.

7-201: RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $288,700. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($11,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #286.
Talk about buying low. Andrew Dutkanych was a superstar high school prospect who earned first round buzz at points during his senior season, then reached campus at Vanderbilt as one of the most hyped incoming freshmen in the country. Unfortunately a leg injury derailed that freshman season and he tossed just 6.1 innings, then made it only five appearances into 2024 before he went down with Tommy John surgery. Born one day before the cutoff, he was eligible for the 2024 draft despite turning 21 a few weeks later, and now he's a Cardinal after just seventeen innings for the Commodores. The stuff is still big. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can hit 97 with big time riding life, making for a plus pitch at its best. He rips off a nasty, tight slider that also looked plus in high school, then has a loopier curveball and a fringy changeup as well that he didn't use as much at Vanderbilt. His command has been up and down dating back to his high school days, and he walked 15 of the 75 hitters he faced (20%) in two years in college, though I'll chalk the college performance to not being healthy consistently. The Duke is a confident pitcher who attacks hitters with conviction, which in high school helped his fringy command play up and should serve him well as he gets back into the swing of things once healthy in 2025. If all it takes is consistent time on the mound for Dutkanych to get back to his high school form, he has a chance to make this an absolute steal for St. Louis. The Indianapolis-area native, if he puts it back together, could have a full arsenal headlined by two plus pitches, a big 6'3" frame, and the attitude to go right after hitters. If either his health or his command force him to the bullpen, he could still be effective leaning on that fastball and slider. Dutkanych has been praised back to his high school days for his mental acumen as a strong student with high baseball IQ and should soak in knowledge in the Cardinals' system.

8-231: LHP Jack Findlay, Notre Dame {video}
Slot value: $229,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($171,000 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #315.
Jack Findlay gives St. Louis a second consecutive pick coming off Tommy John surgery. He was one of the top freshmen in the ACC in 2022, when he put up a 2.17 ERA and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings, then was off to a hot start in 2023 before the surgery cut him down in April, knocking him out for 2024 as well. The stuff isn't overwhelming for Findlay, with a fastball that sits around 90 and tops out at 94 with some cutting action. He leans heavily on his slider, which shows big sweep and good depth across the plate, while he also shows a truer curveball. The 6'3" lefty makes everything play up because he has above average command and hides the ball well, keeping hitters off balance and making lots of weak contact. Tommy John can happen to anybody, but he otherwise has a durable frame and a repeatable, athletic delivery that will lend itself well to starting. He should be fully ready to go for 2025 right from the start and has a chance to move quickly from there. Findlay could use to add a tick of power to both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, which could add more ceiling to an arm that currently projects in the back of the rotation.

12-351: OF Ian Petrutz, Alabama {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Ian Petrutz spent two years at Maryland, where he was one of the better hitters in the Big Ten and leveraged his hitting ability to transfer to Alabama alongside his head coach. The power evaporated this year, his slugging percentage dropping from .555 over two years in College Park to .467 in Tuscaloosa, but the hit tool showed up and it was overall a solid transition to SEC pitching. Petrutz is solidly built and shows above average raw power from the left side, though his ability to tap it in games has come and gone. The Philadelphia-area product can get pull heavy, but his swing can also get rigid and he can slash at the ball. That doesn't stop him from hitting it hard, but it does make it difficult to lift the ball at times and get it over outfielders' heads. He's a very disciplined hitter that walked at a 15.3% clip at Maryland and 10.8% of the time at Alabama, showing strong bat to ball skills to boot on top of his selective approach. If he can find a way to incorporate more loft into his left handed swing, he could be a really complete hitter. That's really important, because his fringy defensive tools will limit him to left field and will put a ton of pressure on the bat. So everything here hinges on the swing change. The power didn't show up in his pro debut, but he hit everything thrown at him and slashed .344/.482/.433 with a 10/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games for Low A Palm Beach.

18-531: 2B Christian Martin, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #220. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #417.
Christian Martin brings the Cardinals a scrappy, high contact infielder. He has been an on-base machine in his three years in Blacksburg, with a career .448 on-base percentage over 130 games with tremendous consistency. Martin is a patient hitter that draws a ton of walks, forcing pitchers to come into the zone against him. Undersized at 5'10", 185 pounds, he'll see more pitchers do that, so he'll have plenty to hit in the minors. The bat to ball is more average, though combined with the strong approach he controls his at bats well and doesn't strike out too much. The power is fringy, but his quick, whippy right handed swing can put the ball out to the pull side and he doesn't lack punch entirely. He shows a strong glove at second base as well, where his springy actions and sound glovework could make him an above average defender. While he fits best at the keystone going forward, he does have enough arm to make shortstop or third base work in spot starts, helping aid his utility infielder projection. That would represent Martin's ceiling, as he lacks a carrying tool to get him into the lineup every day at the big league level. He's a high baseball IQ type with the chance to hit 5-10 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages. Greg Garcia, anybody? He got on base but otherwise didn't hit much in his pro debut, slashing .206/.432/.221 with five stolen bases and a 13/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games for Low A Palm Beach.

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels had a very interesting draft. They surprised many by drafting the slugging Christian Moore with their first pick, then signing him to a massive under slot deal. After continuing to save in the second round, they had nearly $2 million to play with against the bonus pool two picks in and spread it around to a trio of high upside arms. Speaking of arms, they were the theme of the draft here behind Moore, as the Angels would draft seven straight pitchers from that point and 15/20 overall (excluding Moore). They failed to sign third rounder Ryan Prager, which was a surprise, and that only furthered a theme of power arms throughout the draft. Numerous pitchers in this class have touched triple digits while a whopping eleven draftees stand 6'4" or taller. Five stand 6'6" or taller and they're headlined by the 6'11" Peyton Olejnik and 6'9" Will Gervase.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-8: 2B Christian Moore, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $6.5 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($1.5 million below slot value).
My rank: #14. MLB Pipeline: #13. Baseball America: #12.
This was probably the first true surprise pick of the draft, but that is no slight against Christian Moore, who saved the Angels a massive $1.5 million by signing between the slot values of the #14 and #15 picks here at #8. Moore showed well as a part-time playing freshman in 2022 and repeated his success with a strong sophomore season in 2023. Then came 2024, which was a different animal. Offense was off the charts this year as every game felt like it was being played at Coors Field, and Moore was front and center. While leading Tennessee to a National Championship, he blasted 34 home runs and 55 extra base hits overall in 72 games, good for the third highest home run total in all of college baseball this year and tied with Troy Glaus (UCLA) for the ninth highest in college baseball history. Not only did Moore go on a power barrage this year, he was actually better against SEC pitching than against his non-conference schedule, slashing a bonkers .429/.461/.925 with 20 home runs in 30 games against pitching from the best conference in college baseball. Unsurprisingly, Moore has an explosive right handed swing that produces routinely produces elite exit velocities, making the ball jump off his bat like few in college baseball. His big, uppercut hacks make the most of that explosive bat speed and he clearly had zero issue tapping his power in games, especially not against top-flight SEC pitching. The hit tool, meanwhile is more average. He ran average chase rates and average contact rates, which isn't quite what you want to see in the top ten of the draft, but the fact that he was so good in SEC play assuages some of those swing and miss concerns. His barrel is plenty accurate so when he hits it, he's hitting it hard and doing enough damage to keep his batting averages up alongside his slugging percentages. The Brooklyn native has seen time at shortstop but he likely plays second base long term, where his average speed and arm fit better. If he makes enough contact, Moore figures to be a bat-first second baseman in the mold of Dan Uggla. If you can save $1.5 million and still get that kind of bat, it's commendable move in the first round. The Angels pushed Moore aggressively and he responded without missing a beat, slashing .347/.400/.584 with six home runs and a 29/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games mostly spent at AA Rocket City, giving him 40 total home runs on the season.

2-45: RHP Chris Cortez, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $2.07 million. Signing bonus: $1.6 million ($475,300 below slot value).
My rank: #60. MLB Pipeline: #85. Baseball America: #90.
Chris Cortez has one of the most electric arms in recent college baseball memory, and that's no exaggeration. He has struggled to harness it in the past and in 2023 posted an ugly 7.34 ERA as he walked 18.7% of his opponents, but he righted the ship in a big way in 2024 as he cut the walk rate down to 13.3% and his ERA by more than half. The fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's and has reached 101 with turbo sinker action, running over seventeen inches to the arm side while boring down towards the earth at frightening speed. If you want to lift that pitch, you have to time and square it up absolutely perfectly, so good luck. Cortez adds a power slider in the upper 80's with nasty late bite, fooling hitters time and again with hard sweep. For now, it's just those two pitches. The command was previously well below average but improved to simply below average in 2024, though of course it's still not quite where it needs to be. The 6'1" righty often appears nothing short of untouchable as he blows hitters away with the sinker/slider combo, but just as quickly as he arrived, his command can vanish and he'll get himself in trouble. The command woes combined with the lack of a third pitch (or anything under 86-87 for that matter) do likely point to a career in the bullpen, where he won't need to hold that command together for more than a few batters. This is a really exciting arm for the Angels, one that could move quickly and join fellow fireballer Ben Joyce in Anaheim sooner rather than later if the Angels resist the urge to make him a starter. Additionally, the Las Vegas native signed for almost half a million below slot value, close to the value of the #56 pick and bringing Los Angeles close to $2 million in the black heading into their third pick. They started to spend it on:

2C-74: RHP Ryan Johnson, Dallas Baptist {video}
Slot value: $1.06 million. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($687,200 above slot value).
My rank: #36. MLB Pipeline: #47. Baseball America: #46.
Ryan Johnson was Los Angeles' first big over slot buy, in fact signing for more than second rounder Chris Cortez, roughly the slot value for pick #52. Johnson was a well-known prep in the 2021 class but made it to campus at Dallas Baptist, where he turned in two strong seasons before breaking out for a massive 2024. Like Cortez, he is a fascinating arm, but in a very different way. Johnson is a gangly, 6'6" string bean that is all arms and legs, with some projection remaining though at 22 years old now, he probably is what he is. He uses a very unconventional delivery, eschewing a leg lift and instead breaking for the plate straight from his initial windup step in almost a buckling manner. That gives way to a low arm slot that creates a release height nearly a foot lower than his listed height, something you don't see often. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 98 as a starter, and he's even hit triple digits in shorter stints. Despite the big velocity, it gets hit harder than it should with fairly ordinary running and sinking life. Finding a better fastball shape or at least shifting its usage will be one of the first things the Angels should look at. His best pitch is a plus slider that he throws roughly half the time, showing deep, late sweep that confounds hitters left and right. He splits the difference a bit with an average cutter, which gets better results than his fastball, while his changeup is more fringy. While the funky delivery would lead you to see Johnson as a reliever, he actually has plus command and walked just 3.3% of his opponents before, making for a downright elite 10.8:1 strikeout to walk ratio (151/14). It's a really, really intriguing profile that will let the Angels get really creative with his development. His feel for his slider is a real separator, both in terms of its movement and the way he executes/commands it, and the raw arm strength gives his fastball more upside if he can tweak it a little bit. I see Johnson as a potential mid rotation starter if he's developed right and I hope the Angels can bring that out of him.

3-81: LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: $948,600. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #69. MLB Pipeline: #61. Baseball America: #66.
In a surprise to most, Ryan Prager declined to sign with the Angels and will instead head back to Texas A&M for his senior season, making him the third highest drafted player and the highest drafted college player to do so. Making this even more of a surprise is the fact that Jim Schlossnagle, for whom he played his entire career in College Station (though he initially committed to the Aggies under previous head coach Rob Childress). After spending his freshman season in the rotation, he lost his sophomore season to Tommy John surgery then returned with a vengeance in 2024 as one of the top pitchers in the SEC and therefore the nation. While Ryan Johnson and Prager's teammate Chris Cortez have both reached triple digits, Prager is much more of an old school starting pitcher. His fastball parks around 90 and tops out at 94, showing massive riding life negated a bit by an ultra high, over the top release point. The pitch shows some cutting action, too, and it got great results in 2024. His slider gets late drop and performed admirably, looking like an above average breaker, while his straight changeup gives him a third at least average pitch. Everything plays up for Prager because he works effectively in the zone with plus command and high pitching IQ, mixing and matching his stuff effectively to keep hitters off it. The 6'3" lefty also brings some deception in his delivery with a deep arm plunge that helps hide the ball from view, rocking back over into his over the top delivery. While he won't be joining the Angels, he will smooth the transition from Schlossnagle to Michael Earley as one of the best pitchers in all of college baseball.

4-110: RHP Austin Gordon, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $662,900. Signing bonus: $572,500 ($90,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #363.
Austin Gordon has moved between roles as needed at Clemson, spending his freshman year in the bullpen, moving to the rotation as a sophomore, and spending his junior season doing a little bit of both to decent results. This is a stuff-first arm with some upside. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with big riding life, making for a plus pitch that he leans heavily on. Gordon also shows strong feel to spin two distinct breaking balls, with a sharp, tight slider in the mid 80's and a loopier, true 12-6 curve a few ticks slower. The slider is his primary breaker and projects as the better pitch in pro ball, but he does get good results with both. He doesn't use his changeup much, especially in relief. After showing solid command as a starter in 2023, he regressed in that regard as his walk rate jumped from 6.3% to 10.5%. He's generally around the zone but can't always execute his pitches where he needs them, leading to him getting hit just a bit harder than his pure stuff says he should. Should the Angels choose to develop the Myrtle Beach native as a starter, they'll certainly want to bring the changeup along as well as refine his in-zone execution just a bit more, with his athleticism and arm strength giving him plenty of upside in that regard. If he remains a reliever, he can work heavily off the fastball/slider combination and retain the power on his stuff without worrying so much about command. At 6'5" and relatively young for the class (turned 21 a month before the draft), there's a good chance he continues to improve.

5-143: RHP Dylan Jordan, Viera HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $480,800. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($766,700 above slot value).
My rank: #119. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #170.
The Angels unloaded their second largest over slot bonus here, buying Dylan Jordan away from a Florida State commitment for roughly the slot value of the #66 pick, much more than he was projected to earn. While he didn't get as much love from national outlets, but he was a local favorite from scouts in the Sunshine State and was paid accordingly. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95, and he works the shape between more of a running and sinking pitch and one with more riding action. The slider can steal the show at its best, coming in with big sweeping action when he rips it right. For now, the changeup isn't used much in games. Jordan is a sidearmer with an ultra low release point that adds a unique dimension to his stuff, and hitters will tell you that 95 from the side is not the same as 95 from over the top. The 6'3" righty is also a very good athlete that treats his arm like a sling, whipping the ball in there with long arm action that helps reduce stress. The command is below average for now and the Angels will want to clean that up, but between the athleticism and nasty east-west profile from a sidearmer, there's a lot to play with and Jordan comes with plenty of upside. The Angels are clearly buying in in a big way by giving him day one money.

6-172: RHP Peyton Olejnik, Miami [OH] {video}
Slot value: $366,100. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($168,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Sometimes you just have to sit back in awe of a pitcher, and that's Peyton Olejnik. He's bounced around, beginning his career Triton JC in the Chicago area (alma mater of Kirby Puckett) in 2022 before transferring to Oklahoma in 2023. He barely pitched for the Sooners, so he transferred once mor eto Miami of Ohio and found his way into a swingman role for the Redhawks. The elephant in the room, or more aptly the giraffe in the room, is Olejnik himself – he stands 6'11", which would tie him with Giants righty Sean Hjelle and former reliever Jon Rauch as the tallest pitcher in major league history. The fastball sits low 90's and touches 95 with average life, but of course it plays up because he gets a ridiculous nearly seven feet of extension from a low three quarters slot. The Little League mound sits at 45 feet, so that means with his release point 53 feet from home plate, he's getting halfway from the big league mound to a little league mound. Halfway! He shows a nice sweeping slider as well that misses bats at a solid clip, giving him a second at least average pitch, while his changeup gives him a third usable pitch. Olejnik showed solid command in 2024 and has really grown into his body – he was still growing when he reached Triton as a freshman, listed at 6'9" at the time. The stuff isn't all that loud so he'll have a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter if the command holds, with a fallback option as a reliever whose stuff could tick up. If he starts throwing 93-96 in short stints instead of 91-94 in longer outings, that would be frankly terrifying given his size. The Indiana native already got his feet wet, allowing two runs over 6.1 innings while striking out eleven in four abbreviated starts for Low A Inland Empire. 

11-322: RHP Trey Gregory-Alford, Coronado HS [CO] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $1.96 million ($1.81 million against bonus pool).
My rank: #99. MLB Pipeline: #105. Baseball America: #98.
They didn't do it last year, but the Angels have made a habit lately of handing massive bonuses to high school pitchers early on day three. In 2022, it was Caden Dana ($1.5 million), now in the rotation, and in 2021 it was Mason Albright ($1.25 million), who was sent to Colorado in the Randal Grichuk trade. In 2024, that man is Trey Gregory-Alford, who brought in nearly $2 million as the Angels' second highest paid draftee this year. That bonus, which kept him away from a UVA commitment, was between the slot values for the #47 and #48 picks here at #322. It's a bit of a theme in this class, but Gregory-Alford has arm strength in spades and then in more spades. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touches 98 in games, and has reached 101 in side bullpens with running life. Beyond that, he rips off a hard, above average slider with late bite which plays very well off his power fastball, giving him the potential for two plus pitches. The changeup is behind at this point, but that's not unexpected for a power high school pitcher from Colorado Springs. He is a big, physical pitcher at a listed 6'5", 235 pounds already, looking like he could go head to head with anybody in the organization despite being just 18 years old. TGA uses a high three quarters delivery and does throw with some effort, which can impact his command though he's generally around the strike zone. As he acclimates to his high octane stuff, the command should come along has a chance to be average in time. There's plenty of reliever risk as the current profile fits that role precisely, so the Angels will look to smooth him out and bring the changeup along. Even if he has to sit more 92-95 than 94-97, he should still be a very effective starter granted that little pullback helps him throw more strikes. He reminds me a bit of Chase Burns in high school, and Burns of course went on to become arguably the best pitcher in college baseball and go #2 overall to the Reds this year.

12-352: RHP Fran Oschell III, Duke {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #204. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #225.
You guessed it, arm strength again. Fran Oschell did not take a straight path to get here, and he represents a bit of a post-hype prospect the Angels will look to reclaim. After barely pitching as a freshman, he broke out for a massive sophomore season in which he posted a 0.69 ERA (!) and held opponents to just a .133 batting average (!!) while striking out 41.5% of his opponents (!!!) out of the bullpen. That gave him a chance to pitch his way into day one of the draft this spring, but unfortunately everything went in the wrong direction. The ERA ballooned to 6.94, his strikeout rate dropped to 18.2%, and his walk rate jumped from 11.3% to 23.1%. So what's the deal? Oschell is a massive righty at a listed 6'7", 230 pounds, with arm strength to match. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has hit 99 in the past, coming in with explosive riding life that ticked back a little in 2024. In 2023, it was one of the best fastballs in all of college baseball and just chewed up ACC hitters, but this year he wasn't able to entice as many hitters to chase it up and out of the zone as he fell behind in counts. He throws a pair of power breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, but both stand out more for velocity than movement and lack the true finish to be plus pitches, instead looking above average at best. Oschell's command completely fell apart in 2024 and he just rarely set himself up for success as he consistently fell behind in the count. The Angels saw the outright dominance he showed in 2023 when his command was just fringy, i.e. reasonably-not-that-bad, buoyed by that plus-plus fastball at its best. He's almost certainly a reliever and he'll look to get back on track with a change of scenery.

18-532: SS David Mershon, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $255,000 ($105,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This is a fun profile in the eighteenth round, even if it's more about performance than underlying metrics. David Mershon spent two years at Mississippi State and was a major sparkplug for the Bulldogs this past season, where he hit .347, stole 27 bases, and walked (14.9%) more than he struck out (13.8%). Draft eligible after he turned 21 in May, making him closer to the age of a college junior, he brings an old school profile to the table. Mershon is just 5'8", 175 pounds, using a slappy, line drive swing to spray the ball around the field. That contact-oriented approach combined with hitterish, big league at bats helps him keep his strikeouts down and his on-base percentages up. There is virtually no power to speak of, as he rarely turns on or lifts the ball and doesn't have the raw juice to send the ball very far if he did. He did hit six home runs in 58 games in 2024, but that's likely a product of the metal bats and offense-happy environment and he likely won't approach double digit home run totals at the major league level. Instead, he'll use his contact ability, speed, and high energy style of play to make things happen at the plate and on the bases. His speed and scrappy style of play serve him well on the infield, where he can get to most any ball hit his way, though he's not very physical and a lack of arm strength will relegate him to second base. The South Carolina native projects as a high average utility infield type who will be very fun to watch on both sides of the ball. He's an easy guy to root for and is already knocking on the door to Los Angeles, having slashed .254/.326/.298 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at AA Rocket City, an aggressive assignment for a just-drafted sophomore.

Sunday, September 22, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

The Pirates are starting to follow a familiar formula. They loaded up on preps early, dropping over $12 million on four high schoolers with their first five picks (including over $11.5 million on the first three). After that, they continued another Pirates theme of recent years by buying low numerous post-hype prospects who came into the season looking to be high draft picks but, for one reason or another, faded backwards in 2024. Additionally, many of the arms Pittsburgh targeted this year follow similar profiles – Levi Sterling, Josh Hartle, and Matt Ager are all projectable 6'5" righties with command-over-stuff profiles who attack hitters from a lower arm slot and didn't have the 2024 season they were looking for.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-9: SS Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS] {video}
Slot value: $6.22 million. Signing bonus: $6.53 million ($315,425 above slot value).
My rank: #10. MLB Pipeline: #9. Baseball America: #9.
The Pirates made a massive splash at pick #9, grabbing the first high school player off the board and making Konnor Griffin by far the highest paid prep of this class, having previously been committed to LSU. Previously a member of the 2025 class, he reclassified to 2024 to be with his age group. At the time, he was already one of the most famous names in the class, then he went out and had an absolutely bonkers senior season where he hit .556/.690/.966 with nine home runs and 87 stolen bases (or something like that, I've seen slight variations). That made him the Gatorade National High School Player of the Year. Beyond the performance, Griffin is as tooled up as they come. Standing 6'4", he is a superb athlete that seems like he could succeed at any sport or athletic endeavor he set his mind too, showing up in virtually everything he does on the baseball field. He has an explosive right handed swing that produces plus power, and he'll likely continue getting stronger. The hit tool is his lone non-plus tool, grading out closer to average because his swing can get long and his performances against higher level showcase competition have been inconsistent. It's not a concern, per se, as he's shown well overall for a long time and absolutely demolished Jackson-area pitching this spring, but it was enough to push him closer to the back of the top ten. Beyond the power, Griffin is a plus runner who, as mentioned, stole 87 bases this spring, and if you had him race every prospect that possessed his kind of power, he'd torch dang near every one of them. If that's not enough, he has an absolute cannon arm in the field, a product of his pitching exploits in which he has touched 96 at peak. As of now, the jury is out as to where he'll play. Besides pitching, he has played a lot of shortstop in high school and certainly has the speed and arm to play there. The glovework is pretty good, too, and with a couple years of refinement in the Pirates system he could eventually play there in Pittsburgh. It's hard to pass up the upside in center field, though, where his speed and arm will make him a plus defender right away and potentially get him to the big leagues quicker. The possibilities are endless for the Pirates when it comes to Griffin's development, with the upside to become the very best player in this class. Really, potential questions about swing and miss in his game are the only things holding him back, so that will be closely watched as he works his way up.

CBA-37: RHP Levi Sterling, Notre Dame HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $2.51 million. Signing bonus: $2.51 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #56. MLB Pipeline: #58. Baseball America: #55.
Levi Sterling is a really interesting arm, one which may require patience but which could pay off in a big way in time. Hailing from the same Notre Dame High School in Los Angeles that produced Jack McDowell, Giancarlo Stanton, and Hunter Greene, among many others, he entered the spring with considerable hype and was in the conversation for the top high school pitcher in the country. While he didn't take the step forward in 2024 that many had hoped, he didn't take a step back either, and still earned a $2.5 million signing bonus away from a Texas commitment. Sterling's running fastball sits in the low 90's at best, sometimes dipping below 90, and peaks at 94, which isn't exactly first round velocity. He has a sweeping curveball around 80 as well as a tighter cutter that can work into the upper 80's. At this point, his lone above average pitch is a splitter that disappears on hitters and represents one of the more advanced changeups in the prep class. While the stuff is just a bit light for this range of the draft, there are many reasons to be excited. Sterling has a very natural delivery with little wasted movement and low effort, enabling him to fill up the strike zone with all four pitches. He commands not just his fastball but his offspeed stuff as well, a separator for a high school arm. Additionally, the 6'5" righty is extremely projectable, giving him every opportunity to add power to his stuff. That is critical, because given Sterling's command and the depth of his arsenal, any additional power will benefit him tremendously. And lastly, he is extremely young for the class, having not turned 18 until September. While many peak with high velocity in high school or college, Sterling has the opportunity to progress naturally and peak at the right time as he approaches the majors.

2-47: SS Wyatt Sanford, Independence HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $1.98 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($512,700 above slot value).
My rank: #34. MLB Pipeline: #35. Baseball America: #42.
Ten picks later, the Pirates handed Wyatt Sanford a near-identical $2.5 million signing bonus to Levi Sterling to sign him away from a Texas A&M commitment. Sanford, who went to high school just down the street from where I lived for most of my time in Texas, is coming off a massive spring that rocketed him into the first round conversation. The hit tool is similar to Konnor Griffin from the left side in that he has performed admirably on the showcase circuit but has at times had trouble with quality offspeed stuff, then obliterated strong DFW pitching in 2024. He's never been a big power threat, but he showed up this spring looking much more physical and used that newfound strength to run into average power. He has a natural left handed swing in which he just throws the barrel at the ball with a leveraged bat path rather than selling out for power. As he continues to fill out his skinny 6'1" frame, he figures to continue to add pop and he could be good for 15-20 home runs per season at peak to go along with solid on-base percentages. Sanford shines on defense, with graceful actions and soft hands at shortstop that enable him to make all of the plays. His arm is closer to average than plus, causing him to double clutch on some throws, but similar to his power, that should continue to come along as he gets stronger and there's little doubt he'll stick at the premium position. That defensive prowess makes his bat look all that much better, and he has a shot to turn into a glove-first shortstop that hits plenty enough to play every day. For good measure, if we have any die hard Pirates fans out there with strong memories, his father Chance Sanford actually briefly wore the black and gold for fourteen games in 1998, slashing .143/.172/.250 in a utility infield role. Wyatt is expected to create a little more of an impact.

3-83: LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $920,800. Signing bonus: $850,000 ($70,800 below slot value).
My rank: #98. MLB Pipeline: #70. Baseball America: #75.
Josh Hartle has had an interesting run as a prospect. He was one of the best high school pitching prospects in the country back in 2021, but was intent on staying home to attend Wake Forest and ranked as the #2 unsigned prep pitching prospect in the country by my book (behind UCLA commit and later LSU Tiger Gage Jump, now of the A's). He jumped straight into the Demon Deacon rotation as a true freshman, no small feat at that pitching powerhouse, then put up a massive sophomore season in which he was named a Baseball America First Team All-American in 2023. A near-consensus first round prospect entering the season, he instead took a major step backwards in 2024 as his ERA doubled from 2.81 to 5.79 and his command ticked back. Hartle sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out at 94, and he works between a sinker and a cutter. The sinker is fairly generic and didn't miss many bats in 2024, while the cutter did a better job in that regard. He has a nice two-plane slurvy breaking ball that did most of his strikeout work in 2024, showing nice depth and sweep across the plate. The changeup is yet another solid average pitch, giving him a full arsenal. A year ago, Hartle commanded everything with precision to all four quadrants of the zone, continually putting his average stuff in a position to be successful and making it play way up – you don't strike out a third of your opponents while playing an ACC schedule by accident. This year, though, the command wasn't quite as crisp and he often got hit over the plate. His opponents' batting average rose from .237 to .291, while his strikeout rate dropped from 33.4% to 23.3% and his walk rate ticked up from 5.7% to 7.2%. Hartle still utilizes a simple, easy delivery and he was so untouchable in 2023 that it's hard to imagine he can't get back to something similar in the future. His profile is nearly a mirror image to CBA pick Levi Sterling, who possesses eerily similar stuff, command, frame, and mechanics to Hartle from the opposite side. Hartle, also listed at 6'5" like Sterling, is plenty projectable but we've been waiting for the velocity to tick up for years now and it hasn't quite. He's three and a half years older than Sterling and does come with ACC pedigree. It will be very interesting to see if the Pirates can either coax more velocity out of the North Carolina native or if they can get his command back to where it was in 2023. Doing either should make him an effective #4 starter at the big league level. Doing both could make him a true impact starting pitcher and justify his preseason first round projections. He did get into one game after being drafted, allowing four runs (three earned) over 1.2 innings for Low A Bradenton while striking out a pair.

4-112: SS Eddie Rynders, Wisconsin Lutheran HS [WI] {video}
Slot value: $649,700. Signing bonus: $649,700.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #229. Baseball America: #350.
Eddie Rynders is another prep coming off a strong spring. He's a physical, 6'2", 195 pound shortstop from the Milwaukee area that had previously been committed to Kent State, which is just 85 miles from Pittsburgh anyways. Rynders leverages his physicality well in the box, ripping off a strong, power-oriented left handed swing that helps him loft the ball with authority consistently. When he stays within himself, he also shows strong hitting ability and has a chance to be an average contact hitter with above average power if things break right. Rynders' swing can get a bit long as he looks to turn on the ball and do damage, so becoming more conscious of which pitches he can turn on and which he should shoot the other way will help him perform more consistently against better pitching. He has also played all over the infield and is likely to settle at third base, where his solid arm and good glovework will fit well. Rynders' physicality serves him well in the box and he moves pretty well, though it looks like the kind of frame that will slow down as he ages, which is why most scouts project him to move off shortstop. He has the upside of 20-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, something like an early career Jake Lamb before he tapered off.

5-145: OF Will Taylor, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $471,400. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($28,600 above slot value).
My rank: #112. MLB Pipeline: #203. Baseball America: #165.
While Josh Hartle was the #2 pitching prospect to reach campus out of the 2021 high school class, Will Taylor was the #2 position player prospect behind Arkansas' Peyton Stovall (now with the Reds). Taylor was in the first round conversation out of high school, but was dead set on not only playing baseball, but playing football as well for Clemson. Unlike many of these two sport athletes, he actually got on the field for Dabo Swinney as a multi-faceted offensive weapon and caught a touchdown against Georgia Tech in 2022.  Taylor's primary sport has always been baseball, though, and he gave up football after his sophomore season. Baseball-wise, he missed most of his freshman season after tearing his ACL playing football, but came back for a big sophomore season to put himself back in the second round conversation entering 2024. His junior season, though, was more of a mixed bag and he fell to the Pirates in the fifth round after breaking his wrist in April. The first thing that stands out about Taylor, of course, is his athleticism. He's smaller than you'd expect from a blue chip wide receiver at just 5'10", 180 pounds, but previously showed explosive speed in the outfield. He never fully reached his former peak after the ACL tear, now looking more like an above average runner that may fit better in left field, where he'd still be above average. The Columbia-area native is an extraordinarily patient hitter, running exceptionally low chase rates that help him draw a ton of walks and posting an excellent .470 career on-base percentage, buoyed by an 18.4% career walk rate. There's some juice in the bat, with the potential for 10-15 home runs per season and perhaps a bit more at peak, coming from an easy right handed swing and plenty of lean strength. The overall performance ticked down in 2024 and his batting average dropped from .362 to .230 (though his on-base percentage only dipped from .489 to .465) as he made less consistent contact despite the excellent approach. Those lower on Taylor believe the diminished athleticism since the ACL tear will make him a tweener type who struggles to carve out a clear role in the majors, but our optimists in Pittsburgh see a high IQ player who punches above his weight and can impact the game in a variety of ways. He hit .206/.329/.349 with two home runs and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio over seventeen games at Low A Bradenton after being drafted.

6-174: RHP Matt Ager, UC Santa Barbara {video}
Slot value: $359,900. Signing bonus: $357,400 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #174. MLB Pipeline: #135. Baseball America: #104.
Continuing the theme, Matt Ager was another well-known prep prospect that reached campus at UCSB. After serving as a reliever as a freshman, he jumped into the rotation as a sophomore with success, earning his way onto the US Collegiate National Team last summer. Like Josh Hartle and Will Taylor, though, his junior season was more up and down, and he eventually lost his spot in the Gauchos rotation after getting blown up at UC Irvine. He tried to recoup some stock on the Cape just before the draft, but got hit hard. Ager, like Levi Sterling and Hartle, is more of a command and control guy. He can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touch 96 at peak with some riding life, though he sat a bit below that in 2024 and even at its peak velocity the pitch didn't miss as many bats as you'd like. His best pitch historically has been a big, sweeping slider that flashed plus in 2023 but looked more like an above average pitch in 2024. He works in a truer 12-6 curveball and a changeup, giving him different looks to attack hitters with. After showing plus command and walking just 6.8% of his opponents in 2023, the walk rate jumped to 9.9% as he was more average in that regard in 2024. Still, the 6'5" righty remains very projectable and doesn't throw with much effort, looking like he could easily get back to his previous peak velocity and perhaps tick a little higher. Ager also looked much better in short stints in 2024, where he had an 0.83 ERA and a 20/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.2 innings, versus a 5.71 ERA and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings as a starter. Pittsburgh could choose to deploy him out of the bullpen and let him lean heavily on his slider, which would then help the fastball play up, and he could move quickly in turn. Or if they have more patience, they could continue to stretch him out and see if they can find a way to help him miss more bats with his fastball while hopefully getting the slider to tick back up to where it was. Those three variables will likely determine his future ceiling: fastball shape, slider quality, and command.

8-234: RHP Gavin Adams, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $224,500. Signing bonus: $172,500 ($52,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #306.
Gavin Adams is a name that has been familiar to Florida evaluators for a long time, though he hasn't quite put it together and broken through yet like many would like. He bounced around to two Florida junior colleges before ending up at Florida State in 2024, where unfortunately Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire junior season. The stuff is nasty. Adams' fastball sits in the mid 90's in short stints and has reached as high as 101, coming in with nasty run and sink from a lower slot. He rips off a sharp slider that he'll power past hitters, while his hard changeup looks like a third solid big league offering. The 6'4" righty has projection remaining, but that should come more in the form of durability than added velocity as he's probably not going to throw any harder. He does throw with effort, with a late arm and some head whack that give him below average command, which the Pirates will hope to clean up in pro ball. Given the durability and command questions, Adams feels like a pretty good bet to wind up in the bullpen long term, where he can regularly touch the upper 90's and blow hitters away with his power stuff. The Pirates will just have to get him healthy enough and under control enough to do that consistently.

9-264: 2B Duce Gourson, UCLA {video}
Slot value: $196,100. Signing bonus: $187,500 ($8,600 below slot value).
My rank: #203. MLB Pipeline: #158. Baseball America: #231.
Duce Gourson won't bring the flashiest tools to Pittsburgh, but he has been as steady as they come for UCLA and played in 168 of the Bruins' 169 games over the past three seasons, starting 166 of them. He's a reasonably patient hitter that uses the whole field effectively, helping his fringy pure bat to ball skills play up to an average hit tool. It's a line drive-oriented approach where he doesn't try to do too much, but his strong pitch recognition helps him identify pitches he can turn on and tap his average raw power in games. He has the potential to hit 10-15 home runs per season with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages at peak so long as he continues to control the strike zone well against more advanced pitching. Defensively, he shows nice glovework and strong feel for the infield, though his average physicality will likely push him to second base in the long term. It's a profile filled with 45's and 50's on the 20-80 scale, with no carrying tool but a lack of glaring weaknesses besides in-zone swing and miss. The Pirates hope the San Diego native can add up to more than the sum of his parts and serve in a utility infield role in the near future. Similar to Will Taylor, he hit .203/.379/.270 with a 21/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between Low A Bradenton and High A Greensboro.

13-384: RHP Matt McShane, Saint Joseph's {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Matt McShane brings the Pirates a Keystone State native in the thirteenth round, albeit from the other side. He grew up in Bensalem, a northeastern suburb of Philadelphia, then stayed home to attend St. Joseph's University in the city. He's been up and down in three seasons with the Hawks but brings plenty of arm strength to Pittsburgh. McShane's fastball sits in the low 90's in longer outings and reaches the mid 90's in shorter stints, topping out around 96, and he adds a nice slider and hard changeup to round out his arsenal. He's extremely physical at a listed 6'4", 220 pounds, with a durable frame to last through the rigors of a pro season. While McShane is not the most athletic mover on the mound, he repeats his simple delivery well and has run sub-10% walk rates in each of his three seasons at St. Joseph's, pointing to average command. The Pirates could try him out as a starter but his likely destination is long relief, where he can pound the zone with three average pitches and give that length out of the bullpen.