2017 Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

First 5 rounds: Logan Warmoth (1-22), Nate Pearson (1-28), Hagen Danner (2-61), Riley Adams (3-99), Kevin Smith (4-129), Cullen Large (5-159).
Also notable: Brock Lundquist (6-189), Kacy Clemens (8-249), Zach Logue (9-279), Daniel Ritcheson (23-699)

The Blue Jays had four of the first 100 picks, and they managed to use them plus their next pick to pull in five players in my top 100. Though they have just the thirteenth largest bonus pool, this may turn out to be an expensive draft, though fourth rounder Kevin Smith already signed for an at-slot, $405,100 bonus. The Jays leaned mostly offense, taking six hitters in their first seven picks, and also seemingly spurned upside for safety by grabbing just one high schooler in their first fourteen picks. Outside of Nate Pearson and their lone early-round high schooler, Hagen Danner, there isn't really much upside with this class, but we could see many of these guys in the big leagues fairly soon, at least in reserve roles. Overall, they tended to look at big programs, drafting players out of UNC, Maryland, Long Beach State, Texas, Kentucky, Wake Forest, and Texas A&M all in the first 21 rounds.

1-22: SS Logan Warmoth (my rank: 28)
I was a little bit surprised by this pick, considering the fact that there were names like Jeren Kendall, Sam Carlson, and Alex Lange still on the board, but Toronto had been tied to Warmoth for most of the spring and they got their guy. Warmoth is a low ceiling, high floor college performer who will likely replace Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop when the time comes. If he has to move off shortstop, he could put an end to the revolving door method the Blue Jays have employed at second base. He doesn't have any tools that excite, but he's a competent hitter who slashed .336/.404/.554 with 10 home runs for UNC this year, though he did at times look lost at the plate when I saw him play in May. He could develop into one of those not-so-exciting-but-valuable middle infielders, like Logan Forsythe or Zack Cozart, both of whom were also drafted out of southern schools (Arkansas and Ole Miss, respectively).

1-28: RHP Nate Pearson (my rank: 31)
Here is the big upside pick. Unlike most of the other Jays picks, Pearson has a pretty low floor, but his upside is so special that teams were considering the 6'5" righty as early as the first half of the first round. Armed with a plus-plus fastball, he created a stir just before the draft when he reportedly hit 102 MPH in a bullpen session, and his secondaries have made enough progress to the point where he was concerned a bona-fide first rounder. Pearson, a sophomore out of the Junior College of Central Florida, is still fairly raw as a pitcher, but his slider and changeup have made significant progress this spring, as has his command. He'll have to continue to improve those offspeeds and his command if he wants to start, but he can easily fall back on a bullpen career.

2-61: C Hagen Danner (my rank: 41)
I ranked Danner 41st...as a pitcher. Yet another two way player in this draft, the Blue Jays may have themselves a steal here in the late second round. A longtime top prospect for this draft, some of the shine has worn off for Danner, out of Huntington Beach High School in SoCal, but he's still a legitimate prospect. I preferred him as a pitcher, but shoulder soreness plus an extreme lack of catching in this draft makes it completely defensible for Toronto to select him as a catcher. Danner is a strong young man, showing big power at the plate and big arm strength behind it. He's a capable defender that should stick as a catcher, though how much contact he can make will control his rise through the minors. He's committed to UCLA and was drafted slightly below where some thought he would be drafted, so he'll likely be a tough sign.

3-99: C Riley Adams (my rank: 70)
Here's another catcher that the Blue Jays grabbed much later than his ranking would predict. Teams were reportedly looking at Adams for an underslot deal as early as the late first round, so getting him here with his big time power is a steal, especially for a college player who lacks the leverage to have high bonus demands. Is a similar player to Danner, but with even bigger power and bigger swing and miss concerns. The University of San Diego's catcher slashed .312/.424/.564 with 13 home runs this year, and while teams would have liked to see a strikeout rate lower than the 22.8% he put up in a mid-major conference, that's solid production for a guy who can stick behind the plate. Standing 6'5" with a lean build, he's an imposing figure that could grow into even more power, but he'll have to prove he can catch up to pro pitching. Between Adams and Danner, the Blue Jays should get at least one MLB caliber catcher out of this draft.

4-129: SS Kevin Smith (my rank: 93)
Smith has a bit of an interesting profile. He's young for a college junior, not turning 21 until July, and he has the athleticism and arm strength necessary to stay at shortstop. That said, the Maryland Terrapin isn't the fastest guy on the field and is known much more for his power than for his pure hitting ability. He never really put up big numbers for Maryland, slashing .268/.323/.552 with 13 home runs this year and striking out in 21.1% of his plate appearances while walking in just 6.3%. He did perform well on the Cape last summer (.301/.348/.427, 2 HR), and he could put up Kelly Johnson-type numbers if everything works out. He has more power than even first rounder Warmoth, but he hasn't proven he can get to it.

Others: 5th rounder Cullen Large was a three year performer at William & Mary, slashing a career .323/.399/.475 with 16 home runs over 169 games. He's a solid all-around hitter who can hold his own at second base, so here's yet another high-floor option in the infield. 6th rounder Brock Lundquist is, you guessed it, another college player with a track record of success. The Long Beach State outfielder had a bit of a disappointing season by slashing .277/.388/.429 with four home runs for the Dirtbags this year, though he did dramatically improve his walk rate to 11.4%. He may be more of a project, because he has the power and strength to be a multi-category performer, but he's inconsistent with his mechanics and leaks a lot of power in his swing. 8th rounder Kacy Clemens, out of UT-Austin, is the son of Roger Clemens, but he'll be a first baseman in the Toronto system. The Texas senior had a power breakout this year, slashing .305/.414/.532 with 12 home runs for the Longhorns, walking in 14.9% of his plate appearances. 23rd rounder Daniel Ritcheson just missed my top 150 rankings, as he is a high-upside right handed pitcher with some maturity issues. He likely won't sign this late in the draft and instead honor his commitment to San Diego State, but he already has a power fastball/slider combination, though the slider needs tightening. Teams weren't sold on his ability to handle pro ball yet due to his tendency to get frustrated easily on the mound, and spending three years maturing at school could do him a lot of good.

2017 Draft Demographics: Catchers

First Tier: Nobody
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams

Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.

Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.

Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.

Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.