2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Seattle Mariners

Despite a disappointing rookie year for Justus Sheffield, this is one of the most improved systems in the game, and the Mariners can really thank three players for that. We already knew Evan White was good, and he did take a small step forward with his power, but three guys really exceeded their already high expectations: outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez and pitcher Logan Gilbert. Those three now look like legitimate stars, while White and guys like Justin Dunn, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, and Cal Raleigh look like they'll be effective contributors as soon as 2020. They also have a nice, strong relief corps in the upper minors between Sam Delaplane, Joey Gerber, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, and the recently acquired Aaron Fletcher and Taylor Guilbeau, and that's a whole bullpen right there. The system might still be a little shallow in the infield dirt behind White, but the rest of the system is looking a lot better than it did a year ago.

Affiliates: AAA Tacoma Rainiers, AA Arkansas Travelers, High A Modesto Nuts, Class A West Virginia Power, short season Everett AquaSox, rookie level AZL and DSL Mariners

Catcher
- Cal Raleigh (2020 Age: 23): Raleigh was a third round pick out of Florida State in 2018, and a huge first full season meant that he turned out to be more advanced on both sides of the ball than originally anticipated. Skipping over Class A entirely, he slashed .251/.323/.497 with 29 home runs and a 116/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas. Raleigh is a switch hitter with a lot of power from both sides of the plate, and while there was some swing and miss in his game in college, he managed to keep the strikeouts reasonably low and get to his power consistently in 2019. Defensively, Raleigh was a bit rough with both the arm and the glove when he entered pro ball, but he's smoothed it out surprisingly quickly and now looks like he'll stay behind the plate. At this point, he looks like he'll be the Mariners' catcher of the future, one who provides most of his value with his bat by hitting 20-25 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages.
- Carter Bins (2020 Age: 21): Bins, an over slot eleventh round pick out of Fresno State in 2019, doesn't quite have the ceiling of Raleigh but he could be a nice backup down the line. In his pro debut, he slashed .208/.391/.357 with seven home runs and a 56/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games at short season Everett, which was about expected given his pre-draft profile. He was a streaky hitter in college and continued to be in pro ball, showing some power and good patience at the plate, though that patience did lead to a high strikeout rate. Bins is also a very good defensive catcher, taking pressure off his bat, and his profiles as the kind of guy who could hit 10-15 home runs annually in the majors with decent on-base percentages he gets more consistent at the plate.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Caguana

Corner Infield
- Evan White (2020 Age: 24): White has an interesting profile as a rare glove-first first baseman. Of course, the Mariners didn't draft him in the middle of the first round out of Kentucky in 2017 without thinking he would be an impact hitter, and the bat has held up in pro ball with a .293/.350/.488 slash line, 18 home runs, and a 92/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Arkansas in 2019. He came into pro ball with a flat, line drive-oriented swing, but the Mariners got him to start hitting the ball in the air a little more in 2019 and it helped improved his ISO from .153 in 2018 to .195 in 2019 despite moving to a more pitcher-friendly league. That likely will be the difference in him becoming a future impact player for the Mariners, one who can now hit 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. That would be just a decent projection for a first baseman, except that he's such an exceptional defender around the bag that he'll be a big net-positive on defense. White will likely take over as the starting first baseman in 2020 and he's an early contender for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if he can maintain the strides he's made with his power production.
- Joe Rizzo (2020 Age: 22): Rizzo was a second round pick out of high school a town over from me in Virginia in 2016, so I played against him a few times in high school. Very much a bat-first prospect, he took a few years to get going at the plate while he was pushed aggressively by the Mariners, but he finally started to get it figured out in 2019 when he slashed .295/.354/.423 with ten home runs and a 94/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at High A Modesto. He's a bit undersized at a listed 5'10" (probably a little smaller than that), and it took a little bit for him to tap into his power. That power is more to the gaps than over the fence, and he set a career high with 30 doubles in 2019, and he has a strong enough approach at the plate to make it play up. It will have to, because he's below average at third base and he's too short to play first base. He doesn't turn 22 until right before the start of the season, so he has time to continue to develop, but his future is contingent on maintaining the strides he made at the plate and proving it wasn't a California League mirage.
- Austin Shenton (2020 Age: 22): Shenton may have been a fifth round pick out of Florida International University, but he's every bit of a hometown guy for the Mariners in that he grew up in Bellingham and spent a year at Bellevue Community College before transferring to FIU. He impressed in his pro debut to earn his spot in this writeup, slashing .298/.376/.510 with seven home runs and a 44/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at short season Everett and Class A West Virginia. A hit over power guy at FIU, he lifted the ball more in pro ball and hit for more power than expected while keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable level. A third baseman for now, he's fairly mediocre there, so there's a chance he shifts positions to second base or the outfield. If he can keep up the power surge he showed in a small sample in 2019, his bat should profile wherever he ends up.
- Keep an eye on: Jake Scheiner, Bobby Honeyman

Middle Infield
- Donnie Walton (2020 Age: 25-26): Walton, a fifth round pick out of Oklahoma State in 2016, has always hit just enough to stay relevant, but in 2019 he turned it up a notch and hit himself up to the majors. He hit .300/.390/.427 with eleven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 72/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at AA Arkansas, then hit .188/.316/.188 with a 5/3 strikeout to walk ratio in a brief, seven game call-up to the majors. He's not the most physical guy in the lineup at 5'10", but he's hit well due to very strong plate discipline and the ability to hunt his pitch in favorable counts. While that may not lead to a full time starting role, it bodes well for his ability to continue to hit at the major league level. He's a good with the glove but with a fringy arm, he fits better at second base than at shortstop. Expect to see him in the majors in a utility capacity in 2020.
- Joseph Rosa (2020 Age: 23): Rosa was a well-regarded prospect until he hit just .217/.299/.285 in Class A in 2018, but he bounced back nicely in 2019 by slashing .271/.366/.386 with four home runs and a 98/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A West Virginia and High A Modesto. Rosa is probably a bit light on tools if he wants to end up a full time starter, but he has a strong enough game across the board, especially with his strong plate discipline, to make it work as a utility infielder down the line. Now that he's started to get things figured out at the plate, he might start to move a little more quickly, too.
- Noelvi Marte (2020 Age: 18): Marte signed for $1.55 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, then had a weirdly streaky pro debut that featured 26 consecutive hitless at bats at one point and a streak of 11 multi hit games in a 15 game stretch at another. Overall, he slashed .309/.371/.511 with nine home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 55/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games in the Dominican Summer League, all at just 17 years old. He's an electric player, one who can hit for power and who got to it consistently in the DSL without striking out too much. He also has easy plus speed that enables him to be a force on the bases, and while it hasn't quite translated to his defensive game yet, it should help him there down the line. Marte is an aggressive hitter who will have to learn to control the strike zone once he starts to face more advanced pitchers, but he also will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old and has plenty of time to figure it out. He's a high ceiling talent for sure, though we don't know where his future lies on the diamond. For now, he's a shortstop and does have the potential to stick there if he gets more consistent.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Caballero, Mike Salvatore, Patrick Frick, Juan Querecuto

Outfield
- Jarred Kelenic (2020 Age: 20-21): Kelenic was on the older side for a high school prospect when he was drafted sixth overall by the Mets out of the Milwaukee area in 2018, turning 19 a month later, but he certainly made up for any perceived lost time by shooting up to AA in his first full season. Acquired from New York as part of the return for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, Kelenic slashed .291/.364/.540 with 23 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 111/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Class A West Virginia, High A Modesto, and AA Arkansas in 2019. Drafted for his advanced bat, he showed more power than anticipated as well, proving to be as complete of an all-around hitter as you can be in your age 19-20 season. Kelenic manages the strike zone very well for his age, had no problem against much older pitching, and tapped into some raw power that could help him hit 20-25 home runs annually at the major league level, with high on-base percentages. He's also a solid defender with a good arm, one who might not be a Gold Glover in center field but who could get the job done there, and his instincts on the bases helped his above average speed play up. He's probably not quite on superstar level, but he's one of the top prospects around at this point as someone who could impact the game in a variety of ways. Given how wide-open the Mariners outfield situation is, Kelenic might even be able to break through to a starting role at some point in 2020.
- Kyle Lewis (2020 Age: 24-25): Lewis was a potential top five pick in the 2016 draft after a massive season at Mercer, and the Mariners were ecstatic when he ultimately fell to them with the eleventh overall pick. However, it's been anything but a smooth ride for the Atlanta-area native as his pro debut was cut short by a bad knee injury that continued to linger into 2017 and even 2018. Fully healthy for perhaps the first time in three years this year, Lewis had his best pro season yet, slashing .263/.342/.398 with eleven home runs and a 152/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at AA Arkansas. Earning a call-up to the Mariners in September, he slashed .268/.293/.592 with six home runs in an excellent 18 game debut, though his 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio was just a bit worrisome. All the lost time from the knee injury probably cut down Lewis' ceiling a bit, but with his plus raw power and quick swing, the last thing for him in his development is really just to lock down the strike zone, which he can get to doing now that he's finally healthy. Controlling the zone will be the key to getting to his power consistently against big league pitching, though it take a little bit for him to figure it out consistently. The Mariners' outfield situation is wide open in 2020, with only Mitch Haniger having a locked down starting spot, and Lewis should have the inside track to earning a starting role out of the gate.
- Jake Fraley (2020 Age: 24-25): Fraley, originally a competitive balance pick out of LSU by the Rays in 2016, came over in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal a year ago. Fraley hit just .211/.279/.339 in an injury-shortened 2017, but turned it around in another injury-shortened 2018 where he hit .347/.415/.547 in High A. He proved that the turnaround was real in 2019, slashing .298/.365/.545 with 19 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 89/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, then hit .150/.171/.200 with a 14/0 strikeout to walk ratio in a tough 12 game MLB debut. That power might be a bit of a mirage, as he has never been much of a power hitter before this season and he did spent 38 games in the hitters' heaven of the Pacific Coast League (where he hit eight of his 19 home runs), though he also began to lift the ball a bit more in 2019 and that tells me it's probably not a complete mirage. Fraley makes good, consistent, quality contact when healthy, and he adds great speed that really helped him on both sides of the ball. As I said with Lewis, that's a wide-open outfield situation in Seattle, and I wouldn't call it a stretch to think he could snag a starting spot at some point in 2020. Fraley could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and some speed, but the big thing will be staying on the field because his 111 games in 2019 came on the heels of playing just a combined 96 from 2017-2018.
- Braden Bishop (2020 Age: 26): Bishop's bat is a bit light, but his glove got him to the majors in 2019 and it will at least keep him hanging around the fringes while he tries to get that bat over the hump. In 2019, he slashed .271/.358/.471 with eight home runs and a 53/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at High A Modesto and AAA Tacoma, though you do have to take into consideration the hitter-friendly nature of both of those affiliates. He also spent some time with the major league club and slashed .107/.153/.107 with a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 27 games. Bishop isn't a power hitter but does a good job of making consistent contact and using his plus speed to take extra bases when his hits fall into the gaps, and he does have a little over the fence pop when he gets into one. The bat was a bit exposed in his brief time in the majors in 2019, though he's a hard worker and should be able to get his hit tool to work just enough to carve out a fourth or fifth outfielder spot. The calling card is his defense, as he's excellent in center field and at the very least makes for a valuable defensive replacement late in games. In addition, Mariners fans will find Bishop will be easy to root for for a couple of reasons. First off, though he grew up in the San Francisco Bay Area, he's a product of the University of Washington, and secondly, he and his younger brother Hunter (a Giants' 2019 first rounder) run a charity called 4MOM, which works to spread awareness and raise money for Alzheimers research in honor of his late mother.
- Julio Rodriguez (2020 Age: 19): Kelenic's breakout was among the biggest stories on the Seattle farm this year, as it should have been, but it cause another huge breakout to go a bit under the radar. The Mariners signed Julio Rodriguez out of the Dominican Republic for $1.75 million in 2017, then after a successful debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 (.315/.404/.525), they skipped him all the way up to A ball for 2019. Despite the massive jump in competition, playing the season at just 18 years old, and missing time with a fractured hand, Rodriguez passed with flying colors by slashing .326/.390/.540 with 12 home runs and a 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Class A West Virginia and High A Modesto. He has good raw power from a simple, leveraged right handed swing, and given his age and size (listed 6'4", 225), he should easily add more and end up with true plus power down the road. He also manages the strike zone very well for his age, which enabled him to get up to High A at 18 years old, and that enables him to get to the barrel very consistently and will help him easily tap his power as he gets stronger. Really, there are just two things left for Rodriguez to figure out at the plate, and since he's set to play all of 2020 at 19 years old, he has plenty of time to do it. He needs to start lifting the ball more to get to his power, which should be no problem with his swing, and and he needs to stay within himself consistently at the plate; at times, Rodriguez would pull off the ball and try to do too much, but when he kept everything in line and stayed through the ball, that's when he was at his best. It's a really high ceiling for a really talented player already.
- Keep an eye on: Eric Filia, Dom Thompson-Williams, Cade Marlowe

Starting Pitching
- Logan Gilbert (2020 Age: 22-23): The Mariners drafted Gilbert in the middle of the first round out of Stetson in 2018, but held him out of game action after a long college season. They turned him loose in 2019, and the results were remarkable – Gilbert posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 165/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A West Virginia, High A Modesto, and AA Arkansas. The Orlando native has a deep arsenal of effective pitches, led by a fastball that added a tick of velocity this year and now sits consistently in the mid 90's. He adds a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, all of which are effective, and the changeup especially took a step forward in pro ball. He also got more consistent with his command, and his 6'6" frame helps give him extra extension and make everything play up. Not that this was unforeseen, as he was an extremely highly regarded draft prospect in 2018, but he's a more complete pitcher than he was at this point a year ago and now looks like he could be a very good #2 starter, perhaps as soon as 2020.
- Justin Dunn (2020 Age: 24): Back in 2016, Dunn went to the Mets in the middle of the first round out of Boston College, but a rough 2017 set him back a bit as a prospect. He bounced back effectively in 2018, re-establishing himself as a top prospect, and he joined Kelenic and others in being shipped to Seattle in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal that offseason. In his new organization in 2019, Dunn posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 158/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.2 innings at AA Arkansas, then reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee, allowing two runs on two hits and nine walks over 6.2 innings, striking out five. One of the better athletes in the system, Dunn sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup, and all are gradually improving. The slider is likely his best weapon at this point, but he has worked hard to make himself into more of a complete pitcher and it shows. He's gotten more consistent with his command, walking just 7.1% of his opponents in AA this year, and I'd be pretty comfortable attributing the high walk rate in his MLB debut to rookie jitters. Overall, he looks like a #3 or a #4 starter who could contribute in 2020.
- Justus Sheffield (2020 Age: 23-24): Given how shallow the Mariners are in starting pitching at the major league level, I'm not going to knock Sheffield to the bullpen just yet, as he does have the inside track to winning a spot in 2020. However, given his struggles with command, I'm not sure how long he'll last there. In 2019, he posted a 4.13 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 133/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings at AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, as well as a 5.50 ERA and a 37/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 36 major league innings. There's no question about his stuff, which is easily the best in the Mariners' system. He sits in the mid 90's with his ground ball-inducing fastball, adding a power slider that can be an out pitch when located and a changeup that has come along nicely. However, his command is well below average, making his stuff play down across the board, and even at 23 years old he remains much more of a thrower than a pitcher. However, he has shown the ability to throw consistent strikes at times, and he could be just a few small adjustments away from figuring it out and developing into a #2 or #3 starter. However, guys like Gilbert and Dunn have probably passed him on the depth chart, and if he fails to put it together in 2020, he could find himself as an effective lefty fastball/slider reliever.
- Ljay Newsome (2020 Age: 23): As far as I know, there haven't been any major leaguers to come out of Southern Maryland recently, but Ljay Newsome is looking to become the next. A 26th rounder out of high school in 2015, he's worked his way up slowly but broke out in 2019, posting a 3.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 169/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 155 innings at High A Modesto, AA Arkansas, and AAA Tacoma. Newsome's carrying tool has always been his pinpoint command, though the rest of his stuff is a bit fringy. His fastball did take a step forward and is now consistently in the low 90's, and he adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup. The slider has some nice, late break, and it's probably his best secondary pitch, but everything really just comes back to his ability to command it. Few minor leaguers can hit their spots like Newsome, and now with his added fastball velocity, he has legitimate aspirations of becoming a #4 starter in the near future. The ceiling is pretty limited, but the floor is pretty high.
- Ricardo Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Sanchez was originally an Angels prospect but went to the Braves in 2015 for Kyle Kubitza, then got sold to the Mariners after the 2018 season. Always talented, he's faced constant questions about his work ethic that have slowed his development and caused him to be extremely inconsistent throughout his time in the Braves system. He continued to be inconsistent in 2019, but it seems that the change of scenery helped him at least get on the right track. In 2019, he had a 4.44 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 135/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 146 innings at AA Arkansas, getting more consistent with his solid stuff and command while setting a career high in innings by a long shot. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which has some running life, and he adds a curve and a changeup that can both miss bats when they're on. At present, he's probably a #4/#5 starter, but with the gains it looks like he's made with his work ethic, he could end up as more.
- George Kirby (2020 Age: 22): The Mariners had success with a small school college starter in Logan Gilbert last year, so they grabbed another one in the first round in 2019, taking George Kirby from Elon. Kirby is a pretty similar pitcher to Gilbert, if with a bit lighter stuff and a bit better command, but he's just as good. In his pro debut, he posted a 2.35 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 25/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings at short season Everett, and when you add that to his Cape Cod League and college stats, he had an absurd 156/7 strikeout to walk ratio in 124 innings overall. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds two distinct, effective breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, as well as a changeup. For a command-first type, that's more than enough stuff, and it gives him more upside than you'd expect. There's a very good chance that a year from now, he's in the same spot that Gilbert is now, which is certainly a great place to be.
- Isaiah Campbell (2020 Age: 22-23): Campbell was a top draft prospect as an Arkansas redshirt sophomore in 2018, but he elected to go back to school for his redshirt junior season and the Mariners picked him up in the second competitive balance round in 2019. He didn't pitch in pro ball, but I do really like him as a prospect. He looked really, really good at times earlier in his college career, but he also missed time due to injuries and his command often wavered when he was on the mound, causing his stuff to play down at times. However, he got much more consistent with that command in 2019, causing his stuff to play up instead of down. The stuff isn't really a question, as he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and he gets good downhill plane on that pitch due to his high arm slot. His slider is his next best pitch, and he adds a curveball and a changeup. If he can get more consistent with those last two pitches, now that he's got solid average command, he has a really good shot at becoming a #3 or #4 starter. Even as is, I like his chances of becoming a #4 or a #5, or a power fastball/slider reliever whose stuff can play up from the high arm slot. For draft pick #76, this is great value.
- Brandon Williamson (2020 Age: 22): Williamson went in the second round out of TCU in 2019, then had a strong pro debut with a 2.35 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings at short season Everett. He's a 6'6" lefty who, at his best, can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add three breaking balls, but both his stuff and his command were inconsistent at TCU. He looked good in that pro debut from both a stuff and a command perspective, but the Mariners have more work to do to get him to looking like that over 150 innings instead of 15. He has #3 starter potential if he does pull it together, but probably ends up in the bullpen if he doesn't.
- Juan Then (2020 Age: 20): Then is a bit of a sleeper, though he's already been traded twice and he's still a teenager – first from Seattle to the Bronx for Nick Rumbelow in 2017, then back to Seattle for Edwin Encarnacion in 2019. This year, he had a 2.98 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 48/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League, short season Everett, and Class A West Virginia, as he's been brought along slowly. Though he's just 19, he's actually more about pitchability than pure stuff, showing a low 90's fastball a solid curveball, and a good changeup, which he can mix effectively for someone his age. At a listed 6'1" and 155 pounds, he's got some projection remaining, which he'll need in order to survive the rigors of a longer season – at this point, he hasn't thrown more than 61.1 innings in any of his three. He'll pitch all of 2020 at 20 years old, and with a keen understanding of the game, he just needs to work on sharpening his stuff.
- Sam Carlson (2020 Age: 21): Carlson was drafted in the second round out of a Minneapolis-area high school in 2017, but he's thrown all of just three innings so far. Elbow discomfort cut his pro debut short, and a year later, he underwent Tommy John surgery, which ended his 2018 season and kept him out for all of 2019 as well. The good news is he should be fully healthy by the time spring training roles around, and had he attended Florida instead of going to pro ball, he'd just be entering his junior season anyways, so he's still younger than recent college draftees like George Kirby and Brandon Williamson. When he's healthy, he has three potential plus pitches that he can command in a mid 90's fastball, a great slider, and a great changeup, which gives him the ceiling of a true ace. However, he has everything to prove after three years away from the mound, as he'll have to re-establish his feel for all of his pitches as well as his command. He's probably the biggest wild card in the system.
- Keep an eye on: Max Povse, Anthony Misiewicz, Penn Murfee, Adam Hill, Tim Elliott, Brayan Perez, Levi Stoudt

Relief Pitching
- Sam Delaplane (2020 Age: 25): Delaplane was a 23rd round pick out of Eastern Michigan in 2017, but since then, all he's done is strike out 270 batters in just 161.1 innings. In 2019, he had a 2.23 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 120/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.2 innings at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas, then tossed another 2.2 shutout innings (with five strikeouts) in the Texas League playoffs. Delaplane sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider with average command, but everything plays up because hitters just can't pick up the ball out of his hand. He comes from a high arm slot, almost similar to the Dodgers' Marshall Kasowski, and the ball looks like it's coming out of his ear. So even though it's a middle relief profile with his lack of a true strikeout pitch, he will likely end up as more just because you just can't track his pitches.
- Aaron Fletcher (2020 Age: 24): Fletcher was the Nationals' 14th round pick out of Houston in 2018, then came over in the Hunter Strickland/Roenis Elias deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 2.09 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and an 84/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings at Class A, High A, and AA, though he doesn't fit the typical relief profile. The lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and a decent changeup, but he makes everything play up due to his above average command as well as his ability to be much more pitcher than thrower. He hides the ball well in his deliberate delivery, and the angle he can put on his pitches makes them play up from the left side. Additionally, Fletcher has shown the ability to be effective over multiple innings, and I honestly think he could crack it as a #4 or a #5 starter, but the Mariners seem committed to him as a lefty long reliever.
- Joey Gerber (2020 Age: 22-23): Gerber was an eighth round pick out of Illinois in 2018, and as expected, he's moved quickly through the minors. After reaching Class A in his pro debut, Gerber had a strong first full season in 2019 with a 2.59 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 69/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings at High A Modesto and AA Arkansas, then added five shutout innings (with six K's and no walks) in the Texas League playoffs. Gerber is a fastball/slider guy that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and gets good lateral movement on his frisbee slider, and both pitches play up because his funky delivery makes it difficult to pick them up. While his command can be just a bit shaky, he's done a good job of getting his funky delivery under control and keeping a consistent arm slot, which has helped him hit his spots more often than not. He should be in the bigs in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, Wyatt Mills, Dayeison Arias,

Reviewing My 2016 Draft Rankings

Intro

I composed my first draft prospect list in 2015, which went 60 deep and, as you would expect from my first time, was filled with holes. I was able to successfully project the success of players like Walker Buehler, Kolby Allard, and Triston McKenzie, but swung and missed badly with a low ranking of Andrew Benintendi and a high ranking of Mike Nikorak. In 2016, with a year's experience under my belt, I ranked 150 players and published the top 100, and while it still wasn't my best work, I was much happier with it than I was with my 2015 rankings. I believe 2017 was the first year where I truly am content, but seeing that you can't evaluate a draft class on its first pro season, let's take a look back at how my 2016 draft rankings have fared 16 months in. 

Linked here are my top 100 draft prospects for 2016: http://www.coverthosebases.com/blog/silverman-top-100-players-in-the-2016-mlb-draft

There will be three sections:

Biggest Successes: Players that I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who, after their first full professional season, have outplayed that consensus and fit closer with my ranking than with most others

Biggest Misses I: Players that have outplayed my predictions, proving my ranking to be too conservative

Biggest Misses II: Players who I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who have not lived up to my expectations, proving my ranking to be too aggressive

Biggest Successes

#8 Forrest Whitley (MLB.com ranking: 12. Draft position: 17, Astros)

I loved everything about Whitley coming into draft day, noting the excellent downhill plane on his mid-90's fastball and his late-breaking, two-plane curveball. Putting an asterisk next to his name because of how high I was on him, I saw the potential to be an ace who could easily wind up as at least a mid-rotation starter. While he was ranked eighth on my list and 12th on MLB.com, he fell to pick #17, where the Astros took him. After a decent debut that summer, he caught fire this year and reached AA as a teenager. Not only did he pitch for AA Corpus Christi just 14 months after graduating high school, he actually thrived, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a sharp 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 14.2 innings. I projected him as a potential ace, and he has done everything necessary to remain on track for that.

#11 Dakota Hudson (MLB.com ranking: 15. Draft position: 34, Cardinals)

This is another instance where my ranking, MLB.com's ranking, and the draft position were all in order. I bought in on Hudson's breakout season at Mississippi State, citing his devastating fastball/slider combination despite the lack of a proven track record. Despite being thought of as more of a project than a finished product, Hudson has progressed rapidly through the St. Louis farm system, starting 2017 off with AA Springfield and pitching very well (9-4, 2.53 ERA, 77/34 K/BB) before a late season promotion to AAA Memphis in just his first full professional season. While his Memphis numbers weren't excellent (4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19/15 K/BB in 38.2 innings), the fact of the matter is that he was in AAA barely a year removed from college and that he has addressed, though not fully vanquished, questions about his durability. He'll need more polish at AAA to begin 2018, but we should see the Tennessee native in the majors at some point during the year, my buying into his breakout year is looking pretty good.

#28 Carter Kieboom (MLB.com ranking: 45. Draft position: 28, Nationals)

This one is different than the first two, because both I and the Nationals saw something in Kieboom that MLB.com didn't. I saw his long swing but noticed that the bat head was in the zone for a long time, comparing him to Anthony Rendon if he could tap into his raw power. Pessimists didn't like the risk he carried, but I was enamored enough with his offensive upside to put label him a first round talent. Like Whitely, he earned an asterisk next to his name, used to denote my favorite players in the draft. The Nationals seemingly agreed with my optimism, taking him in the same spot I ranked him. He has exceeded expectations so far, sticking at shortstop for now despite most prognosticating him as a third baseman, and his bat has translated up to full season ball with no problems. In 48 games at Class A Hagerstown (with time missed to injury), he slashed .296/.400/.497 with eight home runs and a solid 40/28 strikeout to walk ratio despite not turning 20 until the very end of the season. If he can stay healthy, that Anthony Rendon projection could work out.

#34 Alec Hansen (MLB.com ranking: 62. Draft position: 49, White Sox)

Alec Hansen was an interesting case. The 6'7" right hander entered the spring as a candidate to go #1 overall with his mid to upper 90's fastball and solid secondaries, but his command completely dissolved at the beginning of the season and he was booted from Oklahoma's rotation. He managed to right the ship somewhat as the season went on, but his final line was less than inspiring: 5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 75/39 K/BB in 51.2 innings against mostly Big 12 competition. He had the high strikeout numbers, but if he couldn't harness his stuff, that would mean nothing at the next level. He plummeted in the rankings, but I chose to stay on the bandwagon and keep him at #34, 28 spots higher than MLB.com and 15 spots higher than his eventual draft position. I noted that pro coaching had the potential to streamline his delivery and improve his consistency, and so far, the results have been excellent. In 38 starts since being drafted, Hansen is 13-9 with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and most impressively, a 272/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 196 innings. He reached AA at the end of this season, making two starts and posting a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings. The difference has been the return of his control, which was non-existent at OU (6.79 BB/9 in his junior year) but has reached an acceptable level in the minors (3.26 BB/9). At this point, he's looking more and more like the pitcher many thought could go first overall, and #34 could be too conservative a ranking when it's all said and done.

#56 Mike Shawaryn (MLB.com ranking: 139. Draft position: 148, Red Sox)

Mike Shawaryn is like Hansen-lite. After an excellent sophomore season at Maryland (13-2, 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 138/29 K/BB), he entered the spring as a potential first round pick. However, his junior season was inconsistent (6-4, 3.18 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 97/26 K/BB), and he slipped way down draft boards. He had a funky delivery to begin with, and skeptics saw the regression as a sign that his mechanics wouldn't work at the next level. I dropped him a fair amount as well, but I kept him in the top 60 because I didn't think his 2016 was as frightening as people thought. He maintained a high strikeout rate with 97 in 99 innings (I can't find batters faced data anywhere, so I don't know the K% or BB%), and he maintained a low walk rate of 2.36 per nine. The fact that he had solid control was what eased my mind over the mechanical worries, but it didn't for MLB teams, and he slipped to the fifth round, where the Red Sox took him 148th overall. Through 32 minor league starts reaching up to High Class A, he hasn't been amazing but he has more than held his own, going 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 191/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 150.1 innings. Those numbers don't pop off the page, but I do like the high strikeout rate, and he's looking more like a second or third round pick than a fifth rounder right now. We'll have to keep an eye on the 0.80 career ground out to air out ratio though.

#63 Akil Baddoo (MLB.com ranking: 72. Draft position: 74, Twins)

This one is interesting. As of draft day, he was an extremely raw player with poor mechanics whose athleticism and overall trajectory got him noticed. He had big bat speed but looked like he would need a lot of refinement from pro coaching to get anywhere. A .178/.299/.570 slash line in the Gulf Coast League in 2016 seemingly confirmed that, though his 14.2% walk rate was promising. He spent the beginning of 2017 back in the GCL, slashing .267/.360/.440 in 20 games, but he caught fire upon a promotion to rookie level Elizabethton. In 33 games, the 18-19 year old slashed .357/.478/.579, walking 27 times (17.2%) to just 19 strikeouts (12.1%), boosting his stock considerably. Baddoo may have been raw last year, but he is well on his way to reaching his lofty ceiling.

#72 Zac Gallen (MLB.com ranking: 78. Draft position: 106, Cardinals)

My ranking wasn't too far ahead of MLB.com's ranking, but Gallen has been a success despite slipping out of the top 100, so I'll call it a win. He had a solid but unspectacular junior season at UNC (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 95/21 K/BB in 90.2 innings), relying more on pitchability and smarts than on pure stuff. Cognizant of that pitchability, I liked the stuff just enough to rank him ahead of industry consensus, and he's rewarded me so far. Just like Dakota Hudson, he was drafted by the Cardinals and ended up pitching in AAA by the end of 2017. Through 32 minor league games (29 starts), he is 10-8 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157.1 innings, and he should be one of the first pitchers from his draft class to break into the majors.

#74 Garrett Williams (MLB.com ranking: 154. Draft position: 215, Giants)

This is one I am very proud of. Scouts liked his stuff, but he struggled to stay healthy (31.2 innings in sophomore and junior seasons at Oklahoma State combined) and with his command (30 walks in that span). I was particularly enamored with his stuff, noting an "angled, running fastball, a two-plane curveball that he can mend the shape of, and a fading changeup" (from my 2016 pre-draft notes). I liked his delivery as well, and noted that getting farther from his shoulder injury could help improve his dreadful command, especially as he was on the mound consistently. This all depended on him staying healthy, but so far, he has, and he has thus far justified my extremely optimistic ranking 141 spots higher than he was picked. In 2017, between Class A Augusta and High Class A San Jose in the hitters' paradise California League, Williams went 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, striking out 96 to 35 walks in 97 innings. The walk rate is still a bit high, but it has come down significantly from college and I think it will continue to do so. Watch this one.

Biggest Misses I (under-projected)

#7 Nick Senzel (MLB.com ranking: 7. Draft position: 2, Reds)

This isn't that big of a miss considering I ranked Senzel in the same place as MLB.com, but I still underestimated him. His big junior season at Tennessee saw him slash .352/.456/.595 with eight home runs, but I saw him more as a solid third baseman than as a star. I recognized his high floor, but wasn't sold on a ceiling of anything higher than a solid, Chase Headley-type third baseman. However, he has already reached AA and is slashing .315/.393/.514 with 21 home runs in his minor league career, including a .340/.413/.560 line in 57 games at AA Pensacola. He still may not be on track for that Headley comparison, but he's skirting right along his ceiling and could push it higher into the Anthony Rendon range (like Kieboom). 

#77 Bo Bichette (MLB.com ranking: 90. Draft position: 66, Blue Jays)

I actually ranked Bichette thirteen spots ahead of MLB.com, but also eleven spots behind where he was taken by the Blue Jays. The talent was evident, as he showed great bat speed and bat control, even if his mechanics were a little wild. However, I, along with most of the teams who picked before the Jays, missed the true potential, as literally everything has gone right for Bichette since draft day. Through 132 games across three levels (22 in the GCL, 70 in Class A, 40 in High Class A), the 19 year old is slashing .372/.427/.591 with 18 home runs, 50 doubles, and 25 stolen bases, including a .323/.379/.463 line at High A this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Despite being ranked 90th in his draft class by MLB.com in June 2016, he is now ranked as the 25th best prospect in all of baseball, and in my opinion, MLB.com is being too conservative yet again.

#117 Austin Hays (MLB.com ranking: 120. Draft position: 91, Orioles)

Again, I had Hays three spots ahead of MLB.com (as you can see, they're not very good prognosticators), but the Orioles recognized offensive ability that I didn't and took him 26 spots higher than I ranked him. I liked his quick swing but I didn't think the power would hold as he moved up, knocking him out of my top 100. As it turns out, his offensive breakout at the University of Jacksonville was no joke, and he has cracked no fewer than 36 minor league home runs over 166 games so far, slashing .330/.370/.576 in the short season New-York Penn League (38 games in 2016), High A Carolina League (64 games in 2017), and AA Eastern League (64 games). He even earned a September promotion to the big leagues, adding a 37th professional home run as the first player from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors.

#148 Bryse Wilson (MLB.com ranking: 144. Draft position: 109, Braves)

I saw nothing particularly special in Wilson, a high schooler from North Carolina, noting an uneven arm path and what I saw as a below-average slider. The Braves loved the arm strength that I merely liked, taking him 39 spots ahead of my ranking, and it has paid off in spades so far. The slider still isn't great, but they cleaned up his arm path and both his velocity and command have held up, helping him put up an excellent season for Class A Rome this year. Over 26 starts, the 19 year old went 10-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 139 and walking 37 in 137 innings. There are still questions as to how he will hold up at the higher levels without that slider, and he may still turn out to be a reliever, but there is certainly talent here that I did not pick up.

Biggest Misses II (over-projected)

#1 Mickey Moniak (MLB.com ranking: 5. Draft position: 1, Phillies)

This one is an interesting case. Moniak had helium throughout the Spring of 2016, starting as a mid-first round candidate before hitting his way into the top ten and ultimately top five consideration. General industry consensus never moved him past the 4-7 range, but he was a personal favorite of mine due to his swing mechanics and makeup, so I aggressively ranked him number one on my draft board well before the Phillies buzz. As it turned out, the Phillies agreed with me, selecting Moniak first overall. They aggressively assigned him to Class A Lakewood this year, and the results were underwhelming to say the least: .236/.284/.341, five home runs, eleven stolen bases in 123 games. He may have been 19 playing in full season ball, but those numbers just don't cut it. Unfortunately, when I saw Lakewood play at Delmarva on my day off work, Moniak was on the bench, and I only got to see one pinch-hitting plate appearance (he grounded out). Moniak is far from a bust, but he'll probably repeat the level in 2018 in hopes of adjusting. I still have high hopes for Moniak being a star outfielder in Philadelphia, but other players such as Forrest Whitley, Nick Senzel, Bo Bichette, and A.J. Puk have moved ahead of him in his draft class.

#15 Buddy Reed (MLB.com ranking: 30. Draft position: 48, Padres)

I remained optimistic on Alec Hansen and Mike Shawaryn when their stock faded, and that worked out, but it didn't work out when I did the same for Buddy Reed. An extremely athletic outfielder who slashed .305/.367/.433 with 18 stolen bases as a sophomore at Florida, he regressed to .262/.362/.395 with 24 stolen bases as a junior, looking lost at the plate and leading many scouts to question his floor. I still liked his athleticism at the time, but looking back, the warning signs were there, as his high sophomore strikeout rate (17.9%) jumped to 20.5% as a junior. In his full season debut with Class A Fort Wayne this year, he put up a disappointing .234/.290/.396 line with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 88 games, striking out in 28% of his plate appearances. His athleticism could still help him adjust as he moves up, but he certainly hasn't justified a mid-first round ranking and probably never will.

#49 Jake Fraley (MLB.com ranking: 89. Draft position: 77, Rays)

As of draft day, Fraley struck me as a high floor, low ceiling outfielder who would ultimately fall somewhere between a Sam Fuld and a Gerardo Parra, with the overall projection of a starting outfielder with speed but limited pop. He slashed a career best .326/.408/.464 with five home runs and 28 stolen bases as a junior at LSU in 2016, showing a quick swing and an 11.8% walk rate (coupled with a 10.5% strikeout rate) that led me to make that high-floor projection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited his time on the field in pro ball, and in the 85 total games he has seen on the field, he is slashing just .229/.319/.356 with three home runs and 37 stolen bases. He spent 26 games in the High Class A Florida State League in 2017, which turned out to be a miserable failure as he slashed .170/.238/.255 with one home run, one stolen base, three caught stealing's, and a 22.9% strikeout rate to just a 6.7% walk rate. The 22 year old could concievably bounce back when healthy, but he has a lot of catch-up to play and just as much to prove.

#81 Walker Robbins (MLB.com ranking: 93. Draft position: 166, Cardinals)

This one is just a straight miss on my part. Robbins was a country strong power hitter from rural southeastern Mississippi, one who I believed could break out with pro refinement once his swing was cleaned up. Unfortunately, a year and a half later, that hasn't happened. Through 70 pro games (30 in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2016, 40 in the Appalachian League in 2017), Robbins is slashing just .179/.239/.246 with two home runs and a 79/19 strikeout to walk ratio. That comes out to a 30% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate, and virtually no production. Robbins is still just 19 and has time to right the ship, but at this point he is looking like a long shot.