The Reds don't have the deepest farm system in the world, but their top five rivals some of the best in the game, giving them a very good chance at having two star, homegrown infielders (Nick Senzel and Jonathan India), a star, homegrown outfielder (Taylor Trammell), and two star, home grown pitchers (Hunter Greene and Tony Santillan). Beyond those five, there aren't many impact prospects, with most of the rest of the better prospects being lower down in the minors as recent draftees or signees, especially with Shed Long gone to the Mariners. By the time you read this, the list might look very different with a potential J.T. Realmuto trade in the works as I write this.
Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos*, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level GCL and DSL Reds
*AA affiliate will move from Pensacola, FL to Chattanooga, TN in 2019
The Big Five: 3B Nick Senzel, OF Taylor Trammell, 3B Jonathan India, RHP Tony Santillan, and RHP Hunter Greene
The Reds have one of the best top fives in baseball, and these guys alone make the system one of the game's best. We'll start with 23 year old Nick Senzel, a former second overall pick (2016) out of Tennessee who slashed .310/.378/.509 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 39/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at AAA Louisville this year, though vertigo and a finger injury limited his time on the field. He's hoping to be fully healthy in 2019, where he'll have a chance to crack the major league roster with his broad skill set; he makes consistent hard contact, shows some power, and plays very good defense at third base. He's currently blocked by Eugenio Suarez at third base and by Scooter Gennett at second, but with a bat (and glove) like his, the Reds will find a place to put him. Senzel is not too dissimilar to Jose Ramirez as a player (though he's a little bigger and can't switch hit) and if everything works out, he could have a similar career in Cincinnati as a best-case scenario. A little lower down is 21 year old and fellow 2016 draftee (competitive balance round, 35th overall) Taylor Trammell, who slashed .277/.375/.406 with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 105/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Daytona. He is a very hard-working player who shows a great feel for the barrel and is beginning to grow into some power, giving him the chance to be an impact bat who can also steal plenty of bases. Defensively, he's closer to average in the outfield than you would expect given his profile, but he's young and the Reds have high hopes that he continues to improve his game to the point where he becomes a long-term starting center or left fielder with 20-20 ability. 22 year old Jonathan India was just drafted fifth overall in 2018 following a monster junior season at Florida (21 HR, .350/.497/.717), which he then followed up with a productive pro debut where he slashed .240/.380/.433 with six home runs and a 44/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between rookie affiliates Billings and Greeneville as well as Class A Dayton. He's currently hit over power and I think he'll stay that way, but with solid infield defense, he should have no problem remaining a high level prospect even if the power doesn't reach better than average. I'm not as high on India as some evaluators, but he's still an exciting prospect who projects to post high on-base percentages and double digit home run totals while holding down a starting infield spot in the majors. 21 year old Tony Santillan was actually a 2015 draftee (second round, 49th overall) out of a central Texas high school, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 134/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149 innings at Daytona and AA Pensacola in 2018 to really establish himself as an impact pitching prospect. He easily sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, and when you combine that stuff with his pretty good command, he's a well rounded prospect with a #2 starter ceiling and with less risk than many high-upside guys. Further honing in his control will help him reach that ceiling, where he could stick in the Reds rotation for a long time, but even as-is he could probably cut it as a back-end guy. Lastly, we have 19 year old Hunter Greene, the fireballing right hander who was taken second overall out of high school in southern California in 2017. Greene had mixed results in his full season debut this year, posting a 4.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 89/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings at Class A Dayton. The first thing that jumps out with Greene is his fastball, which sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103. I saw him pitch at the All Star Futures Game in Washington this past summer, and let me tell you, even from the right field bleachers I could tell that his fastball was simply next-level. His slider is coming along and for such a young player (he won't even turn 20 until August) with such elite velocity, his command is actually pretty good. The major drawback for Greene is injury risk, as is always the case with pitchers who throw so hard, and his elbow strain that caused him to miss some time in 2018 isn't easing anyone's minds. He's said to be fully healthy at this point, so we should all be crossing our fingers that he stays that way because frankly, he's simply fun to watch. Even if durability concerns or slower-than-expected development of his offspeeds force him from the rotation, he has closer upside out of the bullpen.
Outfield Group: OF TJ Friedl, OF Jose Siri, OF Stuart Fairchild, OF Michael Beltre, OF Mariel Bautista, and OF Mike Siani
Arguably the deepest part of the Cincinnati farm system is the outfield, where Taylor Trammell leads a large group of talented players looking to break through in the future. Trammell aside, the most advanced prospect is 23 year old TJ Friedl, who never registered for the 2016 draft because he (and somehow, MLB's thirty clubs) did not realize he was eligible. The Reds won a bidding war and gave him the largest signing bonus ever for an un-drafted free agent at $735,000, and he hit the ground running. In 2018, he slashed .284/.381/.384 with five home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 100/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for High A Daytona and AA Pensacola, showing great on-base ability and speed along the way. At just 5'10", he lacks much present power and is unlikely to develop much down the line, but with the aforementioned speed and high on-base percentages, he shouldn't need it to reach the majors. That lack of power does, however, make him less likely to become a full-time starter in the majors, but there is still a chance if he hits enough. His defense is fairly average despite his speed, so it neither hurts nor helps his case. 23 year old Jose Siri is a raw, toolsy player who slashed .239/.294/.449 with 13 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 123/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Daytona and Pensacola, which was a step back from his big 2017 in Class A (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530). He has that power/speed combination that scouts love, and his cannon arm only helps his case as an excellent baseball athlete. However, he struggles to get to that power in games, leaving evaluators wondering if he will ever hit enough to hold down a starting spot in the majors. His aggressive approach limits his walks, and his swing and miss tendencies caught up to him in High A and AA this year. He needs more seasoning in the minors, but he still has a very high ceiling if he can make everything click, because power hitters who can nail runners at the plate with great throws from center field can naturally contribute to their teams in a lot of ways. He just has to improve his approach and pitch recognition. Behind Friedl and Siri is 22 year old Stuart Fairchild, a former second round pick (38th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017 who slashed .264/.344/.407 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 128/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Class A Dayton and Daytona. He doesn't have the prettiest swing in the world but he takes an advanced approach to the plate and makes good contact, giving him high on-base percentages. He's also fast and covers plenty of ground in the outfield, taking some pressure off the bat, but I wasn't a huge fan on draft day and that hasn't changed. He seems like a fourth outfielder to me and I would call Friedl the better prospect, though he can change that by cutting his strikeout rate in 2019. 23 year old Michael Beltre has moved slowly through the system, and he spent 2018 slashing .278/.397/.402 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 85/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at Dayton and Daytona. He has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him adjust well to A ball and should help him adjust to AA in 2019, though the bat itself lacks much punch aside from some gap power. His speed and advanced approach buy the bat time, but he's unlikely to end up more than a fourth outfielder if something big doesn't change with the bat. 21 year old Mariel Bautista, like Beltre, has moved slowly, and he slashed .330/.386/.541 with eight home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 29/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at rookie level Billings. The numbers were fantastic, but it's important to remember that he was 20 years old facing mostly teenage or just-out-of-college competition, and his transition to full season ball, especially above Class A, will be important in accurately evaluating him. In rookie ball, he showed power, speed, and a great ability to avoid strikeouts, and if he keeps that up as he moves through the minors, he'll be a legitimate prospect. For now, we're more in wait-and-see mode. Lastly, 19 year old Mike Siani was just drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 draft out of high school in Philadelphia, and he had a successful debut by slashing .288/.351/.386 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games with rookie level Greeneville. On draft day, he was more well known for his great defense than his bat, which needed refinement, but the successful run through Appalachian League pitching shows that the bat might be more advanced than initially expected. I actually think that some power will come too, which will make him a complete player if everything holds up. Of course, that's a big "if" because 46 games in rookie ball isn't the be-all, end-all, but signs are pointing up for Siani and he could be one of the team's top prospects a year from now.
Infielders and Catchers: C Tyler Stephenson, SS Alfredo Rodriguez, SS Jose Garcia, and 1B Ibandel Isabel
It's a good thing that two of the Reds' best prospects are Nick Senzel and Jonathan India, because after those two, there isn't much in terms of infielders in this system. They do have one viable catcher in 22 year old Tyler Stephenson, which is not something all systems can say, and Stephenson just slashed .250/.338/.392 with 11 home runs and a 98/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona. He's an uncommon catching prospect who can both field and hit, though both will continue to need work. He's got power but doesn't always get to it, and with his moderate on-base ability, the bat is fairly fringy overall. Fortunately for him, the offensive bar for catchers is low and the Reds will give him plenty of time to figure out how to get to his power more consistently, in which case he could be a starting major league catcher. 24 year old Alfredo Rodriguez, who signed for $7 million out of Cuba in 2016, is an interesting prospect because he's a fantastic defender at shortstop but so far in his three minor league seasons, he hasn't hit a lick. In 2018, he slashed .210/.273/.312 with two home runs and a 32/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in complex ball, Daytona, and AA Pensacola while missing time with wrist issues. Having a wicked glove at a premium position will buy your bat all the slack in the world (see Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith), but the bat has to do something in order for him to be useful in the long run. If the bat picks up to the point where he can hit some doubles and get on base at a .300 clip next season, he could crack it as a utility infielder in the majors. 20 year old Jose Garcia signed for $5 million out of Cuba a year after Rodriguez, but so far, he has hit a little better than is elder (and higher paid) counterpart. In his first pro season in 2018, he slashed .245/.290/.344 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Dayton. He's a solid defender at shortstop but not nearly of Rodriguez's caliber, though he's also almost four years younger and hasn't been completely inept at the plate. His plate discipline needs a ton of work and he was overmatched at times by Midwest League pitching, but he has a high offensive ceiling as a guy who can impact the game with more than just his speed. At this point, consider Garcia kind of a wild card, ultimately taking on a utility infielder projection for now but with more (or less) possible. Lastly, 23 year old Ibandel Isabel has some of the most impressive raw power in the system, finishing a 2018 where he blasted 36 home runs and slashed .257/.332/.562 with a 161/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in High A. Isabel was acquired from the Dodgers for Ariel Hernandez back in April and can really put a charge into the ball, but his sub-par plate discipline leads to far too many strikeouts at this point. He will have to really improve his approach if he wants to produce in the high minors and the majors, and as a first baseman, his defense isn't buying his bat any slack. That said, that power could play really well in Great American Ballpark if he can just get the bat on the ball at a decent rate.
The Pitchers: RHP Keury Mella, RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, LHP Scott Moss, LHP Packy Naughton, RHP Jimmy Herget, and RHP James Marinan
Even after Tony Santillan and Hunter Greene, the Reds still have a solid group of pitchers to develop with a variety of skills and projections. 25 year old Keury Mella, who was signed by the Giants out of the Dominican Republic way back in 2012, was acquired with Adam Duvall in the 2015 Mike Leake trade and has seemingly been a prospect forever. This year, the 6'2" righty posted a 3.00 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville, also adding four unsuccessful major league appearances (8.68 ERA, 8/8 K/BB). He is presently and always has been about stuff over refinement, coming in with a mid 90's fastball and a good slider but lacking much else to really get himself over the hump and be successful in the majors. He clearly has the minor leagues handled judging by his good numbers in the high minors this year, but major league hitters punish his mistakes too regularly. He still has a shot to compete as a starter, but converting him to relief, where his fastball/slider combination could play up, could help him finally stick in the majors for good. 23 year old Vladimir Gutierrez was signed out of Cuba in 2016, and he reached AA in 2018 and posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 145/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings with Pensacola. Though he's just six feet tall, Gutierrez has very high upside with his stuff (mid 90's fastball, bat-missing slider) and control that a lot of other young pitchers struggle to put together. He has been plagued by inconsistency in his career, looking like an ace at times and like the opposite at others, but he has been getting better about bringing the same stuff and control from start to start and 2019 could be a real breakout year for him. If not, he could find himself in a similar limbo to Keury Mella down the line. 24 year old Scott Moss has moved slowly for a college pitcher coming from a major program, in this case Florida, spending 2018 at High A and posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Daytona. The 6'5" lefty doesn't have a standout pitch but uses his pitchability well, and if he can improve his command a little bit, he could sneak up as a back-end starter. Not that it matters, but Moss has been very lucky when it comes to run support and carries an impressive 31-11 record over three minor league seasons, including a 15-4 mark in 2018. I watched 22 year old Packy Naughton a lot in college at Virginia Tech, and he's interesting to say the least. He has a delivery, a funky name, and even a funky throws left/bats right profile. He dominated the Cape Cod League, the nation's premier collegiate summer league, with a 1.69 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings in 2016, but sucked in his three years at Virginia Tech from 2015-2017 (7-14, 6.13 ERA, 172/87 K/BB) even after the strong Cape performance. Admittedly, Virginia Tech's program as a whole was sub-par while he was there to say the least, and he has taken better than I expected to pro ball. In 2018, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 137/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at Class A Dayton, showing much better control than he had in college. His stuff is largely average but the quirkiness in his delivery makes it play up, and the Reds must have done something with his mechanics because he's in the strike zone much more. He's still inconsistent, though he has had quite a few more good days in pro ball than he had in college and while I saw him as a reliever back then, he might be able to crack it as a back-end starter with a little more refinement. 25 year old Jimmy Herget is a relief prospect who faired well this year by posting a 3.47 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings at AAA Louisville, doing so with a very good fastball/slider combination that can come from multiple arm angles. Dominant for his first three pro seasons after being drafted out of USF in the sixth round, he finally had to start making adjustments in AAA, but the 6'3" righty is major league ready and should compete for a middle relief spot in 2019 with a larger role possible if he's successful. Lastly, 20 year old James Marinan came over from the Dodgers in the small Dylan Floro trade in July, and he posted a 3.35 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 50/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings in complex ball and rookie level Billings. He was a fourth round pick out of a south Florida high school in 2017 and he's mostly about his fastball at this point; he throws in the low to mid 90's and gets a lot of ground balls from a 6'5" frame, though the rest of his stuff is yet to take the step forward. That's okay considering he'll spend the entire 2019 season at 20 years old, and if just one of his slider, curveball, or changeup becomes a little sharper in full season ball, the Reds will suddenly have a potential impact pitching prospect on their hands.
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Reviewing the Philadelphia Phillies Farm System
The Phillies are on the rise, and despite the slow start to 2016 first overall pick Mickey Moniak's career, so is their farm system. It's a balanced system that features plenty of both power and contact hitters, and the system is especially deep in pitching as they have managed to successfully develop many of their highly regarded arms into legitimate prospects.
Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, Short Season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies
The Headliner: RHP Sixto Sanchez
The first time I saw now-20 year old Sixto Sanchez pitch was in 2017 when his Class A Lakewood BlueClaws visited the Orioles' Delmarva Shorebirds. I don't remember the exact velocities, but the first at bat of the game, against the unfortunate Cole Billingsley, went something like this: 98 MPH for strike one, 99 for strike two, 100 just low for ball one, and lastly a disgusting curveball that Billingsley swung over top of for strike three. Sixto was just 18 at the time while Billingsley was 23, and Billingsley did not stand a chance. Sanchez was soon promoted to High A Clearwater, but he had to return there this season as he battled elbow inflammation, still posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 45/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings. He's just six feet tall and won't even be able to drink legally until July, but he throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90's while adding a very good curveball and changeup, all three of which he can command very well. He can also manipulate his fastball to get movement on it down in the mid 90's range, and the overall package gives him true ace upside. Signed for just $35,000 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic, he has developed a very special right arm that could have made him the top pitching prospect in baseball had he been healthy this season, but he is nonetheless one of the top prospects in the game and should be joining Aaron Nola at the top of the Philadelphia rotation soon.
Drafted Bats: OF Cornelius Randolph, OF Mickey Moniak, OF Adam Haseley, 3B Alec Bohm, OF Dylan Cozens, and OF Matt Vierling
The Phillies have had some high draft picks recently and have used their last four first round picks on bats with mixed results. I'll start in 2015, when they took now-21 year old Cornelius Randolph with their first pick (tenth overall) out of a Georgia high school, and he has been fairly disappointing so far. He was at his best by slashing .250/.338/.402 with 13 home runs at High A Clearwater in 2017, but he dropped to .241/.324/.322 with just five home runs and a 92/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Reading this year. As a so-so defender in left field, his bat is his true calling card, so he'll have to reverse whatever happened in 2018 if he wants to stay relevant as a prospect. At his best, he shows a knack for hard contact, a patient approach, and an overall balanced skill set at the plate, but it hasn't clicked yet for any extended period of time at this point. In 2016, the Phillies selected another outfielder who is off to a slow start, first overall pick and now-20 year old Mickey Moniak. After a mediocre 2017 (5 HR, .236/.284/.341 at Class A Lakewood), he put up only slightly better numbers in 2018 by slashing .270/.304/.383 with five more home runs and a 100/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Clearwater. Fortunately for Phillies fans, Moniak heated up in the second half after slashing .254/.272/.321 with a 56/5 strikeout to walk ratio in the first half, moving that up to a .286/.332/.442 line and a 44/17 ratio after the break. He's skinny at 6'2" but doesn't look like he has much room to add more weight, his speed being his best tool. At the plate, he's more of a line drive/gap hitter than a power hitter, and while it's increasingly unlikely that he develops more than average pop, I still think there is a chance he can be an above average hitter both when it comes to getting on base and hitting for power. Defensively he may be able to stick in center field, his work ethic and feel for the game helping him in that regard. Don't expect a future star out of Moniak at this point, but he could still be a productive big league regular if he gets back on track. Now-22 year old Adam Haseley was the Phillies' first round pick (eighth overall) in 2017, and unlike Randolph and Moniak, he has had plenty of success. In 2018, he slashed .305/.361/.433 with 11 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 73/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Clearwater and Reading with no loss of production after the promotion, even when accounting for league/ballpark differences (Reading is very hitter friendly; Clearwater and the Florida State League in general, not so much). He is a very balanced player who makes easy contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, runs well, may be able to stick in center field defensively, and hits for just enough power to justify calling him an "impact bat." His walk rate is fairly low, but that is okay given his low strikeout rate and general knack for base hits. At this point, he has a high floor as a fourth outfielder because even if his development stagnates from here on out, he's good enough today to at least handle major league pitching. This past year, the Phillies took now-22 year old Alec Bohm out of Wichita State with the third overall pick, who then slashed a moderately disappointing .252/.335/.324 with a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio and without a home run in 40 games between complex ball and short season Williamsport. Small sample slow start aside, Bohm is truly an impact bat who can hit for power while also getting on base at a high rate, giving him middle of the order upside. At 6'5", he can blast balls a long way, and his plate discipline has improved consistently enough that it's easy to envision him adding more power without adding too many strikeouts. Defensively, he has work to do if he wants to stick at third base, but the bat will play even if he is forced to move over to first base and despite the slow start; don't worry about 40 games in complex/short season ball. Moving off of first round picks, 24 year old Dylan Cozens was a second round pick way back in 2012 from high school near Phoenix, and though his trip through the minors has been slow, he's just about ready for the majors. The 6'6" outfielder was long considered a projectable bat who could add a ton of power, then after hitting 38 home runs over his first four pro seasons from 2012-2015, he crushed 40 with (hitter friendly) Reading in 2016 then followed that up with 27 at AAA Lehigh Valley in 2017. This past year, he slashed .246/.345/.529 with 21 home runs and a 124/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games back at Lehigh Valley, then slashed .158/.273/.289 with one home run in a 26 game stint with the Phillies. His raw power is arguably the best in the system, possibly better than that of Bohm and Jhailyn Ortiz (more on Ortiz in the next section), but he strikes out far too much at this point and will have to make adjustments to survive at the major league level. I definitely don't see him as having an Aaron Judge-type breakout (Judge faced the same problems in the minors), but just a small improvement in his contact ability could make him a valuable pinch hitter or platoon bat and a big one (less likely) could make him an every day player down the road. Lastly, 22 year old Matt Vierling was a fifth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2018 who caught fire in the minors and slashed .321/.365/.496 with seven home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between Williamsport and Lakewood, handling the promotion to full season ball well and slashing .293/.342/.473 in his 50 games there. He has no standout tool but does a little bit of everything well, showing some power, on-base ability, and speed, as well as a strong arm from the outfield. He's likely a fourth outfielder down the road, but with his balanced skill set, lack of a glaring weakness, and hot start to his minor league career, more certainly is possible.
International Bats: OF Jhailyn Ortiz, 2B Daniel Brito, SS Arquimedes Gamboa, and SS Luis Garcia
The Phillies aren't as deep in bats signed internationally as they are with those they drafted, especially with Jose Gomez's disappointing season in High A, but there are a few bright spots here. 20 year old Jhailyn Ortiz hasn't quite lived up to his $4 million signing bonus from back in 2015, but he's still a solid prospect who slashed .225/.297/.375 with 13 home runs and a 148/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at Class A Lakewood. He packs tremendous raw power into his 6'3" frame, though South Atlantic League pitching found holes in his swing and was able to exploit them in 2018. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain in the outfield, where his strong arm helps him out, but he will have to start getting to his power consistently if he wants to remain one of the Phillies more well-regarded prospects. High A will be a real test in 2019, but he won't turn 21 until after the season and he has a chance to really define himself as a prospect. A tough transition will mean that Phillies fans will have to be patient and play more wait-and-see and I-wonder-if, but a few tweaks in his approach and a good season could take him from projection bat to true impact prospect. 21 year olds Daniel Brito and Arquimedes Gamboa find themselves in similar positions to each other, both coming off seasons where they didn't hit quite as well as hoped in A ball. Brito has the slightly better bat and he slashed .252/.307/.342 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an 83/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Lakewood and High A Clearwater, while Gamboa, with the better glove, slashed just .214/.304/.279 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 111/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games, all at Clearwater. Both lack much power and will have to rely on getting on base to move forward, and both have good enough approaches at the plate that they can realistically get by without power. Brito, a second baseman who has steadily improved his defense and should be above average there, has shown just a little more sock in his bat and probably has a better chance to hit at the major league level, while Gamboa is a good defender at shortstop who will need to do at least something offensively in order to keep moving up. At this point, both look like future utility infielders if they can't get the bats going, but both will also spend the whole season at 21 years old with plenty of A ball experience under their belt. Lastly, 18 year old Luis Garcia (not to be confused with ex-Phillies/now Angels reliever Luis Garcia or highly-regarded Nationals prospect Luis Garcia) was just signed for $2.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and spent 2018 in complex ball, slashing .369/.433/.488 with one home run, 12 stolen bases, and a 21/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games with the Phillies' Gulf Coast League affiliate. It was an exceptional debut for a 17 year old who skipped over the Dominican Summer League entirely as he sprayed line drives all over the park, showed great awareness of the strike zone, and played great defense at shortstop. Now, it's very important to take complex level (and even rookie/short season) stats with a grain of salt, as competition in the GCL varies from other Latin American teenagers, recent draftees, and higher-level players on rehab assignments, but you can't play much better than Garcia did and given the high expectations coming into the season, he's in a great spot. At 5'11", he's unlikely to develop much power, but his defense at shortstop will take the pressure off his bat and with his on-base ability, he could be one of the top prospects in the system a year from now.
High Minors Arms: LHP Cole Irvin, LHP Ranger Suarez, RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Drew Anderson, LHP JoJo Romero, and RHP Connor Seabold
The Phillies have a good group of arms that are near-major league ready, and that's a very good thing considering the team is just beginning what it hopes will be a long stretch of contention. Interestingly, most of the pitchers in this group are about command over stuff, so they may end up with an abundance of back-end starters who can be used as trade bait. 24 year old Cole Irvin is the most complete pitcher up at the top, coming off a very strong year where he went 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley. With his low 90's fastball and full arsenal of average pitches from the left side, he has no true out pitch but mixes and locates everything extremely well, making all of his pitches play up and giving him a very good shot at sticking in the majors as a back-end, innings eating starter. He's already in the mix for a back-end spot out of spring training, and if he doesn't get it then, his name should be called upon early in the season. He'll be competing with 23 year old Ranger Suarez, a 6'1" lefty who posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 85/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AA Reading and Lehigh Valley, also adding 15 major league innings with a 5.40 ERA and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a fairly similar pitcher to Irvin who has moved through the minor leagues just as quickly, though his stuff is a hair better and his overall feel for pitching is just a hair behind. Unlike with Irvin, his changeup stands out among his other pitches and it, rather than an excellent feel for pitching like Irvin's, makes his other pitches play up. His command is just as good as Irvin's and it will be interesting to see who can hang on to that back-end spot, if not both. 23 year old Enyel De Los Santos, over from San Diego in the Freddy Galvis trade, is a different pitcher from both Irvin and Suarez and posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 110/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.2 innings at Lehigh Valley as well as a 4.74 ERA and a 15/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty whose fastball sits in the mid 90's and who adds a good changeup, but while Irvin and Suarez get by on their command, De Los Santos is closer to average in that regard. When he's hitting his spots, he can be a better pitcher than both, but of course the opposite is true when he isn't. He also comes with more reliever risk, but his stuff would play up in the bullpen and he could be very valuable in that regard. Watching the three of them battle for starts will be very interesting in 2019. 24 year old Drew Anderson is also in that mix, though I think he'll be the first of the four to end up in the bullpen after posting a 3.87 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Lehigh Valley this year. He has a low to mid 90's fastball plays up because of its movement, but he otherwise has fringe-average stuff that he controls pretty well. Despite the extra velocity, he's not quite on the same tier as Irvin and Suarez in terms of control types because his arsenal is not as deep and he hasn't been able to stay on the mound as consistently, but I think he could do well in the bullpen as soon as this season. Lastly, 22 year old JoJo Romero put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2017 in A ball (2.16 ERA, 128/36 K/BB) and followed that up with a solid run through AA in 2018, posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 100/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings with Reading. He's listed closer to the end of this section because he probably won't be major league ready straight out of spring training, but it is plausible that he ends up with the best career in the group. While he has no single standout swing and miss pitch, he can throw pretty much any pitch in the book but a knuckleball, giving him plenty of weapons to use in any count and any situation, and unlike many young pitchers with such deep arsenals, he commands everything pretty well. The six foot lefty is crafty and has a very nice combination of ceiling and floor, and he has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy and maintain his ability to hit his spots with all of his pitches. 23 year old Connor Seabold is a control type who posted a 4.28 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 132/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Clearwater and Reading, keeping runners off the bases but also falling victim to the home run ball when he missed his spots in AA. Though his ERA jumped from 3.77 in High A to 4.91 in AA, he continued to be effective and even upped his strikeout rate from 23.8% to 25.5%, a modest jump but impressive nonetheless considering he was just drafted out of Cal State Fullerton in the third round (83rd overall) in 2017. Like Irvin, none of his pitches stand out, but he hits his spots consistently enough that hitters don't get many mistakes to try to do something with. He has back-end potential.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP Kyle Dohy, RHP Adonis Medina, LHP David Parkinson, LHP Will Stewart, LHP Kyle Young, and RHP Francisco Morales
While most of the upper-minors pitchers are advanced control-types who get by more on instincts than stuff, there's more variation in the guys who aren't quite as close to the major leagues. In this group, Sixto Sanchez aside, 22 year old Kyle Dohy is the closest to the majors in this group, and he put up a crazy season statistically with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 111/42 strikeout to walk ratio over just 67.1 innings at Class A Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's a 6'2" left handed reliever with a great fastball/slider combination that misses bats in bunches and helped him strike out 40.7% of those he faced in 2018 (including 47.7% over 33.2 innings at Lakewood). However, his stuff also misses the strike zone as often as it misses bats, and he walked 15.4% of his opponents this year including 21.8% over his 22.2 innings at Reading. If he gets his command closer to average, he could be in the major leagues as soon as 2019, and in the long run he could be a very useful bullpen arm in Philadelphia. However, if he can't start at least getting close to hitting his spots, his stuff isn't quite electric enough to keep him from getting shelled in the major leagues. 22 year old Adonis Medina made it up to Clearwater in 2018 and posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 123/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings, which was not quite the breakout season the Phillies were hoping for out of their young righty but still solid. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's and adds solid secondary stuff in a slider and a changeup, and they along with his command have been sharp enough for him to post very good component ratios in A ball over the past two seasons. As it stands, he looks like a guy with mid-rotation upside and a larger possibility of ending up in the back-end of the rotation, but the Phillies are high on him and think he has a very good shot of reaching his ceiling. 2019 and his transition to AA should be enlightening. 23 year old David Parkinson absolutely dominated A ball in 2018, going 11-1 with a 1.45 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 141/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at Lakewood and Clearwater, though most of the season was spent facing younger competition down in Lakewood. The 2017 12th round pick out of Ole Miss made his average stuff play up in his first full pro season, and he has a much better chance to stick as a back-end starter than he did a year ago. The strong stint with Clearwater (1.24 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 29 IP) was probably better news than the equally strong 95.1 innings in Lakewood considering his age relative to his competition, but it will be important to see if his stuff holds up over a longer run through High A and in AA this coming season to really feel confident about his future as a starter. 21 year old Will Stewart also had a dominating run through Lakewood, going 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's more of a sleeper prospect as a lefty without a ton of velocity, a high draft pedigree (20th round out of high school in Alabama in 2015), or a quick rise through the minors. Still, he makes his good command of a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup work for him, and because he was young for his class when he was drafted, he's not behind age-wise even though he didn't reach full season ball until his fourth pro season. The Phillies do very well with these types of guys (see Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Connor Seabold up higher in the system) and while he looks more like a back-end starter right now, he could be a more well-known name come next season with success in High A. 21 year old Kyle Young posted a 2.73 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 50/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings mostly with Lakewood, and he's particularly interesting because he's just so darn tall. Standing 6'10" and coming at hitters from the left side, he throws fastballs that look like they're getting released right in front of your face and commands everything well for someone of his stature. While he doesn't throw as hard as a certain other 6'10" lefty (see Johnson, Randy), that command gives him a leg up and could make him a similar pitcher to right hander Chris Young (no relation). Injury risk is present though as he missed time in 2018 with elbow trouble, and personally there are quite a few other pitchers in this system that I see as better prospects. Lastly, 19 year old Francisco Morales doesn't quite have the numbers yet, but he's a high upside guy down in the low minors. The 6'4" righty posted a 5.27 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 68/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings with short season Williamsport in 2018, showing a low to mid 90's fastball and emerging secondary stuff. There is a lot he needs to work on, but the Phillies are high on him and with a big, durable frame, they see more velocity coming, with further improving his command and secondaries being the next lines on the to-do list. Think of him as a wild card for now, but he'll be interesting to track as a teenager in Class A next season.
Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, Short Season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies
The Headliner: RHP Sixto Sanchez
The first time I saw now-20 year old Sixto Sanchez pitch was in 2017 when his Class A Lakewood BlueClaws visited the Orioles' Delmarva Shorebirds. I don't remember the exact velocities, but the first at bat of the game, against the unfortunate Cole Billingsley, went something like this: 98 MPH for strike one, 99 for strike two, 100 just low for ball one, and lastly a disgusting curveball that Billingsley swung over top of for strike three. Sixto was just 18 at the time while Billingsley was 23, and Billingsley did not stand a chance. Sanchez was soon promoted to High A Clearwater, but he had to return there this season as he battled elbow inflammation, still posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 45/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings. He's just six feet tall and won't even be able to drink legally until July, but he throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90's while adding a very good curveball and changeup, all three of which he can command very well. He can also manipulate his fastball to get movement on it down in the mid 90's range, and the overall package gives him true ace upside. Signed for just $35,000 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic, he has developed a very special right arm that could have made him the top pitching prospect in baseball had he been healthy this season, but he is nonetheless one of the top prospects in the game and should be joining Aaron Nola at the top of the Philadelphia rotation soon.
Drafted Bats: OF Cornelius Randolph, OF Mickey Moniak, OF Adam Haseley, 3B Alec Bohm, OF Dylan Cozens, and OF Matt Vierling
The Phillies have had some high draft picks recently and have used their last four first round picks on bats with mixed results. I'll start in 2015, when they took now-21 year old Cornelius Randolph with their first pick (tenth overall) out of a Georgia high school, and he has been fairly disappointing so far. He was at his best by slashing .250/.338/.402 with 13 home runs at High A Clearwater in 2017, but he dropped to .241/.324/.322 with just five home runs and a 92/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Reading this year. As a so-so defender in left field, his bat is his true calling card, so he'll have to reverse whatever happened in 2018 if he wants to stay relevant as a prospect. At his best, he shows a knack for hard contact, a patient approach, and an overall balanced skill set at the plate, but it hasn't clicked yet for any extended period of time at this point. In 2016, the Phillies selected another outfielder who is off to a slow start, first overall pick and now-20 year old Mickey Moniak. After a mediocre 2017 (5 HR, .236/.284/.341 at Class A Lakewood), he put up only slightly better numbers in 2018 by slashing .270/.304/.383 with five more home runs and a 100/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Clearwater. Fortunately for Phillies fans, Moniak heated up in the second half after slashing .254/.272/.321 with a 56/5 strikeout to walk ratio in the first half, moving that up to a .286/.332/.442 line and a 44/17 ratio after the break. He's skinny at 6'2" but doesn't look like he has much room to add more weight, his speed being his best tool. At the plate, he's more of a line drive/gap hitter than a power hitter, and while it's increasingly unlikely that he develops more than average pop, I still think there is a chance he can be an above average hitter both when it comes to getting on base and hitting for power. Defensively he may be able to stick in center field, his work ethic and feel for the game helping him in that regard. Don't expect a future star out of Moniak at this point, but he could still be a productive big league regular if he gets back on track. Now-22 year old Adam Haseley was the Phillies' first round pick (eighth overall) in 2017, and unlike Randolph and Moniak, he has had plenty of success. In 2018, he slashed .305/.361/.433 with 11 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 73/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Clearwater and Reading with no loss of production after the promotion, even when accounting for league/ballpark differences (Reading is very hitter friendly; Clearwater and the Florida State League in general, not so much). He is a very balanced player who makes easy contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, runs well, may be able to stick in center field defensively, and hits for just enough power to justify calling him an "impact bat." His walk rate is fairly low, but that is okay given his low strikeout rate and general knack for base hits. At this point, he has a high floor as a fourth outfielder because even if his development stagnates from here on out, he's good enough today to at least handle major league pitching. This past year, the Phillies took now-22 year old Alec Bohm out of Wichita State with the third overall pick, who then slashed a moderately disappointing .252/.335/.324 with a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio and without a home run in 40 games between complex ball and short season Williamsport. Small sample slow start aside, Bohm is truly an impact bat who can hit for power while also getting on base at a high rate, giving him middle of the order upside. At 6'5", he can blast balls a long way, and his plate discipline has improved consistently enough that it's easy to envision him adding more power without adding too many strikeouts. Defensively, he has work to do if he wants to stick at third base, but the bat will play even if he is forced to move over to first base and despite the slow start; don't worry about 40 games in complex/short season ball. Moving off of first round picks, 24 year old Dylan Cozens was a second round pick way back in 2012 from high school near Phoenix, and though his trip through the minors has been slow, he's just about ready for the majors. The 6'6" outfielder was long considered a projectable bat who could add a ton of power, then after hitting 38 home runs over his first four pro seasons from 2012-2015, he crushed 40 with (hitter friendly) Reading in 2016 then followed that up with 27 at AAA Lehigh Valley in 2017. This past year, he slashed .246/.345/.529 with 21 home runs and a 124/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games back at Lehigh Valley, then slashed .158/.273/.289 with one home run in a 26 game stint with the Phillies. His raw power is arguably the best in the system, possibly better than that of Bohm and Jhailyn Ortiz (more on Ortiz in the next section), but he strikes out far too much at this point and will have to make adjustments to survive at the major league level. I definitely don't see him as having an Aaron Judge-type breakout (Judge faced the same problems in the minors), but just a small improvement in his contact ability could make him a valuable pinch hitter or platoon bat and a big one (less likely) could make him an every day player down the road. Lastly, 22 year old Matt Vierling was a fifth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2018 who caught fire in the minors and slashed .321/.365/.496 with seven home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between Williamsport and Lakewood, handling the promotion to full season ball well and slashing .293/.342/.473 in his 50 games there. He has no standout tool but does a little bit of everything well, showing some power, on-base ability, and speed, as well as a strong arm from the outfield. He's likely a fourth outfielder down the road, but with his balanced skill set, lack of a glaring weakness, and hot start to his minor league career, more certainly is possible.
International Bats: OF Jhailyn Ortiz, 2B Daniel Brito, SS Arquimedes Gamboa, and SS Luis Garcia
The Phillies aren't as deep in bats signed internationally as they are with those they drafted, especially with Jose Gomez's disappointing season in High A, but there are a few bright spots here. 20 year old Jhailyn Ortiz hasn't quite lived up to his $4 million signing bonus from back in 2015, but he's still a solid prospect who slashed .225/.297/.375 with 13 home runs and a 148/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at Class A Lakewood. He packs tremendous raw power into his 6'3" frame, though South Atlantic League pitching found holes in his swing and was able to exploit them in 2018. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain in the outfield, where his strong arm helps him out, but he will have to start getting to his power consistently if he wants to remain one of the Phillies more well-regarded prospects. High A will be a real test in 2019, but he won't turn 21 until after the season and he has a chance to really define himself as a prospect. A tough transition will mean that Phillies fans will have to be patient and play more wait-and-see and I-wonder-if, but a few tweaks in his approach and a good season could take him from projection bat to true impact prospect. 21 year olds Daniel Brito and Arquimedes Gamboa find themselves in similar positions to each other, both coming off seasons where they didn't hit quite as well as hoped in A ball. Brito has the slightly better bat and he slashed .252/.307/.342 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an 83/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Lakewood and High A Clearwater, while Gamboa, with the better glove, slashed just .214/.304/.279 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 111/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games, all at Clearwater. Both lack much power and will have to rely on getting on base to move forward, and both have good enough approaches at the plate that they can realistically get by without power. Brito, a second baseman who has steadily improved his defense and should be above average there, has shown just a little more sock in his bat and probably has a better chance to hit at the major league level, while Gamboa is a good defender at shortstop who will need to do at least something offensively in order to keep moving up. At this point, both look like future utility infielders if they can't get the bats going, but both will also spend the whole season at 21 years old with plenty of A ball experience under their belt. Lastly, 18 year old Luis Garcia (not to be confused with ex-Phillies/now Angels reliever Luis Garcia or highly-regarded Nationals prospect Luis Garcia) was just signed for $2.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and spent 2018 in complex ball, slashing .369/.433/.488 with one home run, 12 stolen bases, and a 21/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games with the Phillies' Gulf Coast League affiliate. It was an exceptional debut for a 17 year old who skipped over the Dominican Summer League entirely as he sprayed line drives all over the park, showed great awareness of the strike zone, and played great defense at shortstop. Now, it's very important to take complex level (and even rookie/short season) stats with a grain of salt, as competition in the GCL varies from other Latin American teenagers, recent draftees, and higher-level players on rehab assignments, but you can't play much better than Garcia did and given the high expectations coming into the season, he's in a great spot. At 5'11", he's unlikely to develop much power, but his defense at shortstop will take the pressure off his bat and with his on-base ability, he could be one of the top prospects in the system a year from now.
High Minors Arms: LHP Cole Irvin, LHP Ranger Suarez, RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Drew Anderson, LHP JoJo Romero, and RHP Connor Seabold
The Phillies have a good group of arms that are near-major league ready, and that's a very good thing considering the team is just beginning what it hopes will be a long stretch of contention. Interestingly, most of the pitchers in this group are about command over stuff, so they may end up with an abundance of back-end starters who can be used as trade bait. 24 year old Cole Irvin is the most complete pitcher up at the top, coming off a very strong year where he went 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley. With his low 90's fastball and full arsenal of average pitches from the left side, he has no true out pitch but mixes and locates everything extremely well, making all of his pitches play up and giving him a very good shot at sticking in the majors as a back-end, innings eating starter. He's already in the mix for a back-end spot out of spring training, and if he doesn't get it then, his name should be called upon early in the season. He'll be competing with 23 year old Ranger Suarez, a 6'1" lefty who posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 85/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AA Reading and Lehigh Valley, also adding 15 major league innings with a 5.40 ERA and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a fairly similar pitcher to Irvin who has moved through the minor leagues just as quickly, though his stuff is a hair better and his overall feel for pitching is just a hair behind. Unlike with Irvin, his changeup stands out among his other pitches and it, rather than an excellent feel for pitching like Irvin's, makes his other pitches play up. His command is just as good as Irvin's and it will be interesting to see who can hang on to that back-end spot, if not both. 23 year old Enyel De Los Santos, over from San Diego in the Freddy Galvis trade, is a different pitcher from both Irvin and Suarez and posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 110/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.2 innings at Lehigh Valley as well as a 4.74 ERA and a 15/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty whose fastball sits in the mid 90's and who adds a good changeup, but while Irvin and Suarez get by on their command, De Los Santos is closer to average in that regard. When he's hitting his spots, he can be a better pitcher than both, but of course the opposite is true when he isn't. He also comes with more reliever risk, but his stuff would play up in the bullpen and he could be very valuable in that regard. Watching the three of them battle for starts will be very interesting in 2019. 24 year old Drew Anderson is also in that mix, though I think he'll be the first of the four to end up in the bullpen after posting a 3.87 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Lehigh Valley this year. He has a low to mid 90's fastball plays up because of its movement, but he otherwise has fringe-average stuff that he controls pretty well. Despite the extra velocity, he's not quite on the same tier as Irvin and Suarez in terms of control types because his arsenal is not as deep and he hasn't been able to stay on the mound as consistently, but I think he could do well in the bullpen as soon as this season. Lastly, 22 year old JoJo Romero put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2017 in A ball (2.16 ERA, 128/36 K/BB) and followed that up with a solid run through AA in 2018, posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 100/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings with Reading. He's listed closer to the end of this section because he probably won't be major league ready straight out of spring training, but it is plausible that he ends up with the best career in the group. While he has no single standout swing and miss pitch, he can throw pretty much any pitch in the book but a knuckleball, giving him plenty of weapons to use in any count and any situation, and unlike many young pitchers with such deep arsenals, he commands everything pretty well. The six foot lefty is crafty and has a very nice combination of ceiling and floor, and he has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy and maintain his ability to hit his spots with all of his pitches. 23 year old Connor Seabold is a control type who posted a 4.28 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 132/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Clearwater and Reading, keeping runners off the bases but also falling victim to the home run ball when he missed his spots in AA. Though his ERA jumped from 3.77 in High A to 4.91 in AA, he continued to be effective and even upped his strikeout rate from 23.8% to 25.5%, a modest jump but impressive nonetheless considering he was just drafted out of Cal State Fullerton in the third round (83rd overall) in 2017. Like Irvin, none of his pitches stand out, but he hits his spots consistently enough that hitters don't get many mistakes to try to do something with. He has back-end potential.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP Kyle Dohy, RHP Adonis Medina, LHP David Parkinson, LHP Will Stewart, LHP Kyle Young, and RHP Francisco Morales
While most of the upper-minors pitchers are advanced control-types who get by more on instincts than stuff, there's more variation in the guys who aren't quite as close to the major leagues. In this group, Sixto Sanchez aside, 22 year old Kyle Dohy is the closest to the majors in this group, and he put up a crazy season statistically with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 111/42 strikeout to walk ratio over just 67.1 innings at Class A Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's a 6'2" left handed reliever with a great fastball/slider combination that misses bats in bunches and helped him strike out 40.7% of those he faced in 2018 (including 47.7% over 33.2 innings at Lakewood). However, his stuff also misses the strike zone as often as it misses bats, and he walked 15.4% of his opponents this year including 21.8% over his 22.2 innings at Reading. If he gets his command closer to average, he could be in the major leagues as soon as 2019, and in the long run he could be a very useful bullpen arm in Philadelphia. However, if he can't start at least getting close to hitting his spots, his stuff isn't quite electric enough to keep him from getting shelled in the major leagues. 22 year old Adonis Medina made it up to Clearwater in 2018 and posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 123/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings, which was not quite the breakout season the Phillies were hoping for out of their young righty but still solid. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's and adds solid secondary stuff in a slider and a changeup, and they along with his command have been sharp enough for him to post very good component ratios in A ball over the past two seasons. As it stands, he looks like a guy with mid-rotation upside and a larger possibility of ending up in the back-end of the rotation, but the Phillies are high on him and think he has a very good shot of reaching his ceiling. 2019 and his transition to AA should be enlightening. 23 year old David Parkinson absolutely dominated A ball in 2018, going 11-1 with a 1.45 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 141/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at Lakewood and Clearwater, though most of the season was spent facing younger competition down in Lakewood. The 2017 12th round pick out of Ole Miss made his average stuff play up in his first full pro season, and he has a much better chance to stick as a back-end starter than he did a year ago. The strong stint with Clearwater (1.24 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 29 IP) was probably better news than the equally strong 95.1 innings in Lakewood considering his age relative to his competition, but it will be important to see if his stuff holds up over a longer run through High A and in AA this coming season to really feel confident about his future as a starter. 21 year old Will Stewart also had a dominating run through Lakewood, going 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's more of a sleeper prospect as a lefty without a ton of velocity, a high draft pedigree (20th round out of high school in Alabama in 2015), or a quick rise through the minors. Still, he makes his good command of a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup work for him, and because he was young for his class when he was drafted, he's not behind age-wise even though he didn't reach full season ball until his fourth pro season. The Phillies do very well with these types of guys (see Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Connor Seabold up higher in the system) and while he looks more like a back-end starter right now, he could be a more well-known name come next season with success in High A. 21 year old Kyle Young posted a 2.73 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 50/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings mostly with Lakewood, and he's particularly interesting because he's just so darn tall. Standing 6'10" and coming at hitters from the left side, he throws fastballs that look like they're getting released right in front of your face and commands everything well for someone of his stature. While he doesn't throw as hard as a certain other 6'10" lefty (see Johnson, Randy), that command gives him a leg up and could make him a similar pitcher to right hander Chris Young (no relation). Injury risk is present though as he missed time in 2018 with elbow trouble, and personally there are quite a few other pitchers in this system that I see as better prospects. Lastly, 19 year old Francisco Morales doesn't quite have the numbers yet, but he's a high upside guy down in the low minors. The 6'4" righty posted a 5.27 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 68/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings with short season Williamsport in 2018, showing a low to mid 90's fastball and emerging secondary stuff. There is a lot he needs to work on, but the Phillies are high on him and with a big, durable frame, they see more velocity coming, with further improving his command and secondaries being the next lines on the to-do list. Think of him as a wild card for now, but he'll be interesting to track as a teenager in Class A next season.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Reviewing the Detroit Tigers Farm System
The Tigers' farm system is much improved over the past few years, going from a nice collection of arms and a couple bats to a balanced system with enough of both. While the system is still fairly pitching-heavy considering the Tigers well-known preference of drafting pitchers, they have added quite a few bats via trade recently such as Daz Cameron, Jake Rogers, Willi Castro, Dawel Lugo, and breakout star Isaac Paredes. Back on the pitching side, this draft strategy has worked well for them because their first round picks in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018, all right handed pitchers, are arguably the four best prospects in the system. In 2014, they drafted outfielder Derek Hill, who is not quite a bust yet but who is looking like he may never hit enough to reach the majors.
Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie Seawolves, High A Lakeland Flying Tigers, Class A West Michigan Whitecaps, Short Season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers
High Drafted Arms: RHP Beau Burrows, RHP Matt Manning, RHP Alex Faedo, RHP Casey Mize, and RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Each of the Tigers' last four first round picks have been right handed pitchers, and those four are now the core of the farm system. In 2015, Detroit grabbed now-22 year old Beau Burrows out of Weatherford High School in Texas with the 22nd overall pick, and he just posted a 4.10 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 127/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 innings at AA Erie. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a full assortment with a curve, a slider, and a changeup, which he commands well enough to give him an overall projection as a workhorse #3 or #4 starter. Sharpening his command a little bit further will ensure that he ends up a useful mid-rotation arm, though at present it looks unlikely that he ends up as anything less than a #5 starter. 20 year old Matt Manning was the Tigers' first round pick (ninth overall) out of a Sacramento high school in 2016 and he has been just as good as advertised. In 2018, he posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 154/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings at Class A West Michigan, High A Lakeland, and Erie, handling both promotions easily. He throws in the low to mid 90's with a very loose arm and adds a very good curveball, one which has enabled him to put up strikeouts in bunches. His command is really the only thing that needs to come along, but his mechanics are improving as he grows into his skinny 6'6" frame and with his athleticism, I think he ends up with above average command in the end. He has ace upside, but like any other 20 year old prospect, he'll have to stay healthy and continue to make progress with his delivery in order to reach it. In 2017, the Tigers' first round pick (18th overall) was now-23 year old Alex Faedo from the University of Florida, and Faedo put up a solid first pro season by posting a 4.02 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 110/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at Lakeland and Erie. The big 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds an excellent slider and a good changeup, but his command is just inconsistent enough to keep him from being considered an elite prospect. With no improvement in his start to start command, he looks like a #4 starter, but he has chance to be a very good mid-rotation guy, possibly even a #2, if he can bring it all together. He'll require more minor league seasoning in 2019 but look for Faedo to be knocking on the door when it comes to September call-ups. Most recently, the Tigers took 21 year old Casey Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 draft out of Auburn, and Mize posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings between complex ball and Lakeland in his debut. The 6'3" righty is already close to major league ready, bringing a mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a devastating splitter to the table and commanding it all with ease. His combination of stuff and command could work in the major leagues today, the only reason he isn't going straight to the majors is that he just needs to see professional hitters and learn how to handle them first, which shouldn't be a problem. The only knock on Mize comes from a durability standpoint, as he was shut down at the end of his freshman and sophomore seasons at Auburn then stumbled a little bit down the stretch in his junior year, but the Tigers might look to smooth out his delivery just a little bit. His delivery isn't high-effort, per se, but he doesn't have the loosest arm action in the world and a few minor tweaks could make Mize an ace who will be in the majors very soon. Lastly, I'll add that 24 year old Kyle Funkhouser, the Tigers' fourth round pick out of Louisville in 2016, has been a big draft find as well. Funkhouser was considered a potential top ten pick at points during the 2015 season, but he slid with an up and down junior season, didn't sign when the Dodgers drafted him 35th overall, then slid to the fourth round in 2016. However, he has turned that slide around in the minors, and in 2018 he posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings between Erie and AAA Toledo before a foot injury ended his season in July. He throws in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal with a slider, curveball, and changeup, commanding it all well enough to make it work. Nothing really stands out about his game, but he has already proven himself against AA competition and he'll get another shot at AAA in 2019, after which he could compete as a back-end starter or a long reliever.
Outfielders: OF Christin Stewart, OF Daz Cameron, OF Jacob Robson, OF Dustin Peterson, OF Parker Meadows, and OF Brock Deatherage
Most of the Tigers' best outfield prospects are close to the majors at this point, and with Nicholas Castellanos looking like the only sure-starter out there, it's wide open for some of these guys to seize starting roles in the very near future. 25 year old Christin Stewart, who slashed .267/.375/.417 with a pair of home runs in his 17 game MLB debut in 2018, is arguably the top prospect in this group. He's a power hitter who has clubbed 83 home runs over the past three minor league seasons, and in 2018 he slashed .263/.363/.488 with 25 home runs and a 108/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games, almost all at AAA Toledo. He packs a lot of pop for a six footer, and in 2018, he addressed his biggest offensive weakness and dropped his strikeout rate from 2017's 24.9% to a better 20.7% (excluding ten punchless plate appearances in complex ball) despite moving up from AA to AAA. He kept it up in a small MLB sample, his 13 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances coming out to 18.1%. All of his value will be tied to his bat because he's a mediocre defender in left field, but with his power, high walk rate, and lower strikeout rate, he could open 2019 as the Tigers' starting left fielder and contend for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn't win it. Right behind him on the depth chart is 22 year old Daz Cameron, who came over from Houston in the Justin Verlander trade and slashed .264/.343/.406 with eight home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 137/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and Toledo. Cameron's speed makes him a valuable defender in center field as well as an asset on the bases, but his bat is beginning to come along too. Unlike Stewart, he will always be glove-first, but Cameron has enough feel for the barrel and a patient enough approach to get on base at a good clip, and his wiry strength gives him enough power to where he's not just a contact hitter. The overall offensive package is pretty average and he probably never ends up being an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup, but the good center field defense buys the bat enough slack that he has a good chance of becoming a starting outfielder, if not in 2019 then in 2020. 24 year olds Jacob Robson and Dustin Peterson are more likely to end up fourth outfielders, with Robson having slashed .295/.376/.440 with 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 140/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Erie and Toledo and Peterson having slashed .268/.324/.406 with 11 home runs and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at the Braves' AAA affiliate in Gwinnett. Robson is a more complete player and therefore the better prospect, showing a little bit of everything but no standout tool aside from his speed. Not known for his power, his 44 extra base hits and .440 slugging percentage were a surprise in 2018, but the 5'10", 175 pounder strikes out enough to where he probably won't get to his power as much in the majors. Peterson, meanwhile, has more natural power and is more likely to get to it in the majors, but he has been inconsistent and even at his best, his power plays closer to average, and unlike Robson he doesn't have that speed to fall back on. Peterson and Robson could compliment each other nicely on the Detroit bench if there is room for both. Down lower in the minors, 19 year old Parker Meadows, the younger brother of now-Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, was the Tigers' second round pick (44th overall) in 2018 and slashed a nice .290/.377/.473 with four home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in complex ball and with short season Connecticut. Standing at 6'5", the skinny outfielder's glove is presently ahead of his bat, as he moves well for such a tall kid and has a good arm. He's more about projection at the plate, as his long (too long if you ask some) swing has plenty of bat speed and loft, combining with his height to give him the chance for really big power down the road. That long swing, as well as some difficulty with pitch recognition, causes him to swing and miss a fair amount, but pro coaching and refinement could help him click at the plate and shoot him to the top of the Tigers' prospect rankings in the future. For now, consider him a long-term project who could turn into a speedier Christin Stewart if it works out. Lastly, 23 year old Brock Deatherage was a tenth round pick out of NC State in 2018, but he quickly made himself known by slashing .326/.385/.504 with seven home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 64/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games between complex ball, Class A West Michigan, and Lakeland. A streaky hitter in college, I saw him play during his senior season and his swing immediately stuck out to me. Like Meadows, he has a very long swing, but the strength and whip in his wrists helps him generate more power than you'd expect for a skinny, speedy, 6'1" kid. The length in his swing, as well as so-so plate discipline, also caused his streakiness in college, but he proved himself quickly in A ball and pro coaching could make him a steal in the tenth round. I'm a Deatherage fan and he might no longer be a sleeper prospect after the 2019 season.
Infielders and Catchers: 3B Isaac Paredes, SS Willi Castro, IF Dawel Lugo, 2B Kody Clemens, and C Jake Rogers
The Tigers aren't very deep when it comes to infield prospects, but the short list includes their best position-playing prospect in Isaac Paredes and unlike many teams, they actually have a viable catching prospect in Jake Rogers. 19 year old Isaac Paredes has not gotten nearly the recognition he deserves when it comes to top prospect discussions around the league, and he alone will likely make the Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade with the Cubs look like a robbery. The teenager slashed .278/.359/.456 with 15 home runs and a 76/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, looking even better after his promotion and showing a wide range of skills against much older competition. He is growing into some moderate power, makes ready contact, and has a very advanced approach at the plate, giving him a very high floor and the potential to become a top of the lineup bat. Defensively, he has more question marks with a fringe-average glove and a good arm, so he likely moves off of shortstop and ends up at second or third base in the long run. He has the bat to profile at either, and because he turns just 20 years old during spring training, he has plenty of time to make further adjustments and become an impact hitter. 21 year old Willi Castro is over from Cleveland in the Leonys Martin trade and slashed .264/.315/.392 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA Akron/Erie and AAA Toledo. He has been improving on both sides of the ball as he has moved through the minors, and he now projects as an average all-around player with contact ability, a little bit of power, some speed, and decent defense at shortstop. Overall that gives him more of a utility projection, though a few tweaks to his approach (he reached AAA at just 21) and a little bit of luck could help him become a starting shortstop in the near future, albeit not one who will hit in the middle of the lineup. 24 year old Dawel Lugo, who was a part of the Cliff Pennington trade in 2015 and the J.D. Martinez deal of 2017, has a very light bat but is in the right place at the right time to try to compete for a starting spot in Detroit. This year he slashed .269/.283/.350 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 66/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Toledo, then hit .213/.267/.309 in 27 major league games. On most teams, Lugo would be more of a fringe-prospect, but the Tigers are shallow enough in the infield that he has a shot there and could use his solid feel for the barrel to get major league playing time. Defensively, he has a good arm but will probably split time between second and third base, but he'll have to get more patient at the plate if he wants to remain in the major leagues. Down low in the minors, 22 year old Kody Clemens (son of Roger) was a third round pick (79th overall) out of Texas this year, following up a huge redshirt junior season for the Longhorns (24 HR, .351/.444/.726) with a strong pro debut by slashing .288/.365/.450 with five home runs and a 39/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. He has power but many, myself included, questioned his ability to get to it consistently in pro ball. He answered that question at least as far as Class A goes (.302/.387/.477), but the real test will be in the higher levels as his long swing may lead to high strikeout totals. Defensively, he's just okay at second base, so the bat will have to carry him. If he continues to produce like he did in college and in Class A, then that should be no problem. Lastly, 23 year old Jake Rogers came over to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade then slashed .219/.305/.412 with 17 home runs and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at Erie. This was a step back from his 2017 numbers (.261/.350/.467 in A ball), but his bat isn't what makes him a big prospect. Rogers fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block anything and whose cannon arm makes potential base stealers very cautious. Because his glove is so good at a premium position and could likely win Gold Gloves at the major league level, all he has to do is hit a little bit in order to get to the majors. While the bat is a little bit more of a question mark now than it was last year, he still showed some power, and if he can get to it enough to hit 15 home runs per season in the majors, he should be able to be a major league starting catcher.
Other Pitchers: RHP Franklin Perez, RHP Logan Shore, LHP Matt Hall, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Grayson Long, and RHP Bryan Garcia
While the four straight first round picks are truly the core of the farm system, the Tigers have plenty of other good pitchers, too. 20 year old Franklin Perez is easily the best prospect in the group, though injuries limited him to seven starts in 2018 and he posted a 6.52 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings at High A Lakeland and complex ball rehab. While he didn't get a chance to prove anything on the field in 2018 after being traded to the Tigers in the 2017 Justin Verlander trade, the raw talent is very exciting. The 6'3" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are weapons and all of which he commands very well for someone his age. Having not gotten the chance to make any progress in 2018, he's not a guaranteed starter down the road, but he has top of the rotation potential and he'll spend all of 2019 at 20 years old. 24 year old Logan Shore came over to the Tigers in the Mike Fiers trade, though he never pitched for a Tigers affiliate in 2018 after putting up a 4.45 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings at High A and AA for the A's. Shore was actually the Florida Gators' ace ahead of A's sixth overall pick A.J. Puk in 2016, though unlike Puk, he's more about pitchability over stuff. The 6'2" righty throws in the low 90's and adds a great changeup and a mediocre slider, though he is able to succeed because he mixes his pitches well and locates them even more effectively. He likely never ends up more than a #4 or #5 starter, but he has a good shot at cracking a major league rotation or at the very least becoming an effective long reliever. 25 year old Matt Hall is an older prospect, but he had an outstanding season in the upper minors this year by going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Erie and AAA Toledo. That was an extension of the success he's had throughout his minor league career, as the six foot lefty is now 28-11 with a 2.48 ERA over nearly 100 minor league appearances. He only throws about 90 and isn't a control artist like Shore, but his great curveball enables everything else to play up and has carried him all the way to the majors, though he was shelled for 16 runs (13 earned) over just eight innings in his short stint with the Tigers. Presently, he's likely more of a long relief candidate than a rotation guy, but if can improve his command a little bit, he could stick as a back-end starter. 23 year old Gregory Soto is another promising arm, having posted a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 115/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings at Lakeland. However, we'll have to wait a little bit to see him in 2019 as he'll miss the first 20 games of the season after being suspended for "conduct detrimental or prejudicial to baseball." He only throws in the low 90's but gets enough movement on his fastball that hitters have a tough time squaring it up, though the rest of his game needs work. His curveball and changeup are nothing special and he struggles with command, but the Tigers like his live arm and hope they can help his stuff tick up. I'm less enamored with him and I think he ends up a reliever, but he's a breakout candidate if he can learn some command. 24 year old Grayson Long and 23 year old Bryan Garcia both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery, so both will definitely come into 2019 with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Long is a 6'5" righty out of Texas A&M who came over from the Angels in the Justin Upton trade, coming off a 2017 where he had a 3.01 ERA and a 128/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at High A and AA. Meanwhile, Garcia is a 6'1" right handed reliever out of the University of Miami who posted a 2.13 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings across four levels in 2017. Long will be 25 in May, but he was close to the major league ready when he went down with the surgery and should be able to compete for a back-end rotation spot in the near future. Garcia, meanwhile, is a hard throwing fastball/slider guy who was also close to major league ready, and he should be in the bullpen mix pretty soon after he's healthy. While Long looks like a back-end starter, Garcia has the upside of a late-inning reliever.
Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie Seawolves, High A Lakeland Flying Tigers, Class A West Michigan Whitecaps, Short Season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers
High Drafted Arms: RHP Beau Burrows, RHP Matt Manning, RHP Alex Faedo, RHP Casey Mize, and RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Each of the Tigers' last four first round picks have been right handed pitchers, and those four are now the core of the farm system. In 2015, Detroit grabbed now-22 year old Beau Burrows out of Weatherford High School in Texas with the 22nd overall pick, and he just posted a 4.10 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 127/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 innings at AA Erie. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a full assortment with a curve, a slider, and a changeup, which he commands well enough to give him an overall projection as a workhorse #3 or #4 starter. Sharpening his command a little bit further will ensure that he ends up a useful mid-rotation arm, though at present it looks unlikely that he ends up as anything less than a #5 starter. 20 year old Matt Manning was the Tigers' first round pick (ninth overall) out of a Sacramento high school in 2016 and he has been just as good as advertised. In 2018, he posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 154/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings at Class A West Michigan, High A Lakeland, and Erie, handling both promotions easily. He throws in the low to mid 90's with a very loose arm and adds a very good curveball, one which has enabled him to put up strikeouts in bunches. His command is really the only thing that needs to come along, but his mechanics are improving as he grows into his skinny 6'6" frame and with his athleticism, I think he ends up with above average command in the end. He has ace upside, but like any other 20 year old prospect, he'll have to stay healthy and continue to make progress with his delivery in order to reach it. In 2017, the Tigers' first round pick (18th overall) was now-23 year old Alex Faedo from the University of Florida, and Faedo put up a solid first pro season by posting a 4.02 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 110/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at Lakeland and Erie. The big 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds an excellent slider and a good changeup, but his command is just inconsistent enough to keep him from being considered an elite prospect. With no improvement in his start to start command, he looks like a #4 starter, but he has chance to be a very good mid-rotation guy, possibly even a #2, if he can bring it all together. He'll require more minor league seasoning in 2019 but look for Faedo to be knocking on the door when it comes to September call-ups. Most recently, the Tigers took 21 year old Casey Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 draft out of Auburn, and Mize posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings between complex ball and Lakeland in his debut. The 6'3" righty is already close to major league ready, bringing a mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a devastating splitter to the table and commanding it all with ease. His combination of stuff and command could work in the major leagues today, the only reason he isn't going straight to the majors is that he just needs to see professional hitters and learn how to handle them first, which shouldn't be a problem. The only knock on Mize comes from a durability standpoint, as he was shut down at the end of his freshman and sophomore seasons at Auburn then stumbled a little bit down the stretch in his junior year, but the Tigers might look to smooth out his delivery just a little bit. His delivery isn't high-effort, per se, but he doesn't have the loosest arm action in the world and a few minor tweaks could make Mize an ace who will be in the majors very soon. Lastly, I'll add that 24 year old Kyle Funkhouser, the Tigers' fourth round pick out of Louisville in 2016, has been a big draft find as well. Funkhouser was considered a potential top ten pick at points during the 2015 season, but he slid with an up and down junior season, didn't sign when the Dodgers drafted him 35th overall, then slid to the fourth round in 2016. However, he has turned that slide around in the minors, and in 2018 he posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings between Erie and AAA Toledo before a foot injury ended his season in July. He throws in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal with a slider, curveball, and changeup, commanding it all well enough to make it work. Nothing really stands out about his game, but he has already proven himself against AA competition and he'll get another shot at AAA in 2019, after which he could compete as a back-end starter or a long reliever.
Outfielders: OF Christin Stewart, OF Daz Cameron, OF Jacob Robson, OF Dustin Peterson, OF Parker Meadows, and OF Brock Deatherage
Most of the Tigers' best outfield prospects are close to the majors at this point, and with Nicholas Castellanos looking like the only sure-starter out there, it's wide open for some of these guys to seize starting roles in the very near future. 25 year old Christin Stewart, who slashed .267/.375/.417 with a pair of home runs in his 17 game MLB debut in 2018, is arguably the top prospect in this group. He's a power hitter who has clubbed 83 home runs over the past three minor league seasons, and in 2018 he slashed .263/.363/.488 with 25 home runs and a 108/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games, almost all at AAA Toledo. He packs a lot of pop for a six footer, and in 2018, he addressed his biggest offensive weakness and dropped his strikeout rate from 2017's 24.9% to a better 20.7% (excluding ten punchless plate appearances in complex ball) despite moving up from AA to AAA. He kept it up in a small MLB sample, his 13 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances coming out to 18.1%. All of his value will be tied to his bat because he's a mediocre defender in left field, but with his power, high walk rate, and lower strikeout rate, he could open 2019 as the Tigers' starting left fielder and contend for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn't win it. Right behind him on the depth chart is 22 year old Daz Cameron, who came over from Houston in the Justin Verlander trade and slashed .264/.343/.406 with eight home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 137/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and Toledo. Cameron's speed makes him a valuable defender in center field as well as an asset on the bases, but his bat is beginning to come along too. Unlike Stewart, he will always be glove-first, but Cameron has enough feel for the barrel and a patient enough approach to get on base at a good clip, and his wiry strength gives him enough power to where he's not just a contact hitter. The overall offensive package is pretty average and he probably never ends up being an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup, but the good center field defense buys the bat enough slack that he has a good chance of becoming a starting outfielder, if not in 2019 then in 2020. 24 year olds Jacob Robson and Dustin Peterson are more likely to end up fourth outfielders, with Robson having slashed .295/.376/.440 with 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 140/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Erie and Toledo and Peterson having slashed .268/.324/.406 with 11 home runs and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at the Braves' AAA affiliate in Gwinnett. Robson is a more complete player and therefore the better prospect, showing a little bit of everything but no standout tool aside from his speed. Not known for his power, his 44 extra base hits and .440 slugging percentage were a surprise in 2018, but the 5'10", 175 pounder strikes out enough to where he probably won't get to his power as much in the majors. Peterson, meanwhile, has more natural power and is more likely to get to it in the majors, but he has been inconsistent and even at his best, his power plays closer to average, and unlike Robson he doesn't have that speed to fall back on. Peterson and Robson could compliment each other nicely on the Detroit bench if there is room for both. Down lower in the minors, 19 year old Parker Meadows, the younger brother of now-Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, was the Tigers' second round pick (44th overall) in 2018 and slashed a nice .290/.377/.473 with four home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in complex ball and with short season Connecticut. Standing at 6'5", the skinny outfielder's glove is presently ahead of his bat, as he moves well for such a tall kid and has a good arm. He's more about projection at the plate, as his long (too long if you ask some) swing has plenty of bat speed and loft, combining with his height to give him the chance for really big power down the road. That long swing, as well as some difficulty with pitch recognition, causes him to swing and miss a fair amount, but pro coaching and refinement could help him click at the plate and shoot him to the top of the Tigers' prospect rankings in the future. For now, consider him a long-term project who could turn into a speedier Christin Stewart if it works out. Lastly, 23 year old Brock Deatherage was a tenth round pick out of NC State in 2018, but he quickly made himself known by slashing .326/.385/.504 with seven home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 64/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games between complex ball, Class A West Michigan, and Lakeland. A streaky hitter in college, I saw him play during his senior season and his swing immediately stuck out to me. Like Meadows, he has a very long swing, but the strength and whip in his wrists helps him generate more power than you'd expect for a skinny, speedy, 6'1" kid. The length in his swing, as well as so-so plate discipline, also caused his streakiness in college, but he proved himself quickly in A ball and pro coaching could make him a steal in the tenth round. I'm a Deatherage fan and he might no longer be a sleeper prospect after the 2019 season.
Infielders and Catchers: 3B Isaac Paredes, SS Willi Castro, IF Dawel Lugo, 2B Kody Clemens, and C Jake Rogers
The Tigers aren't very deep when it comes to infield prospects, but the short list includes their best position-playing prospect in Isaac Paredes and unlike many teams, they actually have a viable catching prospect in Jake Rogers. 19 year old Isaac Paredes has not gotten nearly the recognition he deserves when it comes to top prospect discussions around the league, and he alone will likely make the Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade with the Cubs look like a robbery. The teenager slashed .278/.359/.456 with 15 home runs and a 76/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, looking even better after his promotion and showing a wide range of skills against much older competition. He is growing into some moderate power, makes ready contact, and has a very advanced approach at the plate, giving him a very high floor and the potential to become a top of the lineup bat. Defensively, he has more question marks with a fringe-average glove and a good arm, so he likely moves off of shortstop and ends up at second or third base in the long run. He has the bat to profile at either, and because he turns just 20 years old during spring training, he has plenty of time to make further adjustments and become an impact hitter. 21 year old Willi Castro is over from Cleveland in the Leonys Martin trade and slashed .264/.315/.392 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA Akron/Erie and AAA Toledo. He has been improving on both sides of the ball as he has moved through the minors, and he now projects as an average all-around player with contact ability, a little bit of power, some speed, and decent defense at shortstop. Overall that gives him more of a utility projection, though a few tweaks to his approach (he reached AAA at just 21) and a little bit of luck could help him become a starting shortstop in the near future, albeit not one who will hit in the middle of the lineup. 24 year old Dawel Lugo, who was a part of the Cliff Pennington trade in 2015 and the J.D. Martinez deal of 2017, has a very light bat but is in the right place at the right time to try to compete for a starting spot in Detroit. This year he slashed .269/.283/.350 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 66/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Toledo, then hit .213/.267/.309 in 27 major league games. On most teams, Lugo would be more of a fringe-prospect, but the Tigers are shallow enough in the infield that he has a shot there and could use his solid feel for the barrel to get major league playing time. Defensively, he has a good arm but will probably split time between second and third base, but he'll have to get more patient at the plate if he wants to remain in the major leagues. Down low in the minors, 22 year old Kody Clemens (son of Roger) was a third round pick (79th overall) out of Texas this year, following up a huge redshirt junior season for the Longhorns (24 HR, .351/.444/.726) with a strong pro debut by slashing .288/.365/.450 with five home runs and a 39/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. He has power but many, myself included, questioned his ability to get to it consistently in pro ball. He answered that question at least as far as Class A goes (.302/.387/.477), but the real test will be in the higher levels as his long swing may lead to high strikeout totals. Defensively, he's just okay at second base, so the bat will have to carry him. If he continues to produce like he did in college and in Class A, then that should be no problem. Lastly, 23 year old Jake Rogers came over to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade then slashed .219/.305/.412 with 17 home runs and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at Erie. This was a step back from his 2017 numbers (.261/.350/.467 in A ball), but his bat isn't what makes him a big prospect. Rogers fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block anything and whose cannon arm makes potential base stealers very cautious. Because his glove is so good at a premium position and could likely win Gold Gloves at the major league level, all he has to do is hit a little bit in order to get to the majors. While the bat is a little bit more of a question mark now than it was last year, he still showed some power, and if he can get to it enough to hit 15 home runs per season in the majors, he should be able to be a major league starting catcher.
Other Pitchers: RHP Franklin Perez, RHP Logan Shore, LHP Matt Hall, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Grayson Long, and RHP Bryan Garcia
While the four straight first round picks are truly the core of the farm system, the Tigers have plenty of other good pitchers, too. 20 year old Franklin Perez is easily the best prospect in the group, though injuries limited him to seven starts in 2018 and he posted a 6.52 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings at High A Lakeland and complex ball rehab. While he didn't get a chance to prove anything on the field in 2018 after being traded to the Tigers in the 2017 Justin Verlander trade, the raw talent is very exciting. The 6'3" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are weapons and all of which he commands very well for someone his age. Having not gotten the chance to make any progress in 2018, he's not a guaranteed starter down the road, but he has top of the rotation potential and he'll spend all of 2019 at 20 years old. 24 year old Logan Shore came over to the Tigers in the Mike Fiers trade, though he never pitched for a Tigers affiliate in 2018 after putting up a 4.45 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings at High A and AA for the A's. Shore was actually the Florida Gators' ace ahead of A's sixth overall pick A.J. Puk in 2016, though unlike Puk, he's more about pitchability over stuff. The 6'2" righty throws in the low 90's and adds a great changeup and a mediocre slider, though he is able to succeed because he mixes his pitches well and locates them even more effectively. He likely never ends up more than a #4 or #5 starter, but he has a good shot at cracking a major league rotation or at the very least becoming an effective long reliever. 25 year old Matt Hall is an older prospect, but he had an outstanding season in the upper minors this year by going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Erie and AAA Toledo. That was an extension of the success he's had throughout his minor league career, as the six foot lefty is now 28-11 with a 2.48 ERA over nearly 100 minor league appearances. He only throws about 90 and isn't a control artist like Shore, but his great curveball enables everything else to play up and has carried him all the way to the majors, though he was shelled for 16 runs (13 earned) over just eight innings in his short stint with the Tigers. Presently, he's likely more of a long relief candidate than a rotation guy, but if can improve his command a little bit, he could stick as a back-end starter. 23 year old Gregory Soto is another promising arm, having posted a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 115/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings at Lakeland. However, we'll have to wait a little bit to see him in 2019 as he'll miss the first 20 games of the season after being suspended for "conduct detrimental or prejudicial to baseball." He only throws in the low 90's but gets enough movement on his fastball that hitters have a tough time squaring it up, though the rest of his game needs work. His curveball and changeup are nothing special and he struggles with command, but the Tigers like his live arm and hope they can help his stuff tick up. I'm less enamored with him and I think he ends up a reliever, but he's a breakout candidate if he can learn some command. 24 year old Grayson Long and 23 year old Bryan Garcia both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery, so both will definitely come into 2019 with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Long is a 6'5" righty out of Texas A&M who came over from the Angels in the Justin Upton trade, coming off a 2017 where he had a 3.01 ERA and a 128/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at High A and AA. Meanwhile, Garcia is a 6'1" right handed reliever out of the University of Miami who posted a 2.13 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings across four levels in 2017. Long will be 25 in May, but he was close to the major league ready when he went down with the surgery and should be able to compete for a back-end rotation spot in the near future. Garcia, meanwhile, is a hard throwing fastball/slider guy who was also close to major league ready, and he should be in the bullpen mix pretty soon after he's healthy. While Long looks like a back-end starter, Garcia has the upside of a late-inning reliever.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
Reviewing the Milwaukee Brewers Farm System
The Brewers, like the Rockies, have a top-heavy system with about seven or eight really interesting names followed by mostly fringe prospects, the recent trade of Luis Ortiz to the Orioles and the graduations of Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes not helping. It's a pretty hitter-heavy system, with a nice array of bats scattered through the different levels and all bringing something a little different to the table. On the pitching side, it's the opposite story, with most interesting pitchers clustered around the High A/AA levels and also showing fairly similar skill sets as workhorse #3/#4 guys.
Affiliates: AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox*, AA Biloxi Shuckers, High A Carolina Mudcats, Class A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, rookie level Helena Brewers*, complex level AZL and DSL Brewers
*AAA affiliate will move from Colorado Springs, CO to San Antonio, TX and rookie affiliate will move from Helena, MT to Colorado Springs, CO in 2019
The Headliner: 2B Keston Hiura
22 year old Keston Hiura isn't exactly an exciting, high ceiling prospect, but he's a high floor guy who leaves little doubt that he will be a productive major league regular in the near future. After slashing an insane .442/.567/.693 in his junior season at UC Irvine in 2017 and .371/.422/.611 in his pro debut that year, he took well to a fairly aggressive assignment to High A Carolina in 2018 by slashing .320/.382/.529, earning a promotion to AA Biloxi in his first full pro season and slashing a respectable .272/.339/.416 there. Between Carolina and Biloxi in 2018, he totaled a .293/.357/.464 line with 13 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 103/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games, showing an extremely balanced offensive skill set overall. He makes consistent hard contact and sprays line drives all over the field, giving him plenty of gap power (he hit 34 doubles and five triples in 2018 too) and sometimes enough to get it over the wall. Defensively, he's just decent at second base, giving him what I see as a perfect comp to a right handed hitting Daniel Murphy. Both are plus-plus hitters who can muscle the ball over the fence while holding their own at second base, and I would not be surprised to see Hiura put up very similar numbers to Murphy. The Brewers don't really have a set starting second baseman, so while I think it is unlikely that Hiura breaks camp with the Crew, he could be up in the majors at some point in 2019 with nobody blocking him.
High Minors Hitters: OF Corey Ray, SS Mauricio Dubon, C Jacob Nottingham, 3B Lucas Erceg, 1B Jake Gatewood, and OF Troy Stokes Jr.
The Brewers have a nice mix of talent up in the high minors with outfielders, infielders, and even a catcher. There's power, speed, and some on-base ability, though beyond the aforementioned Keston Hiura, there's not much impact talent here after Corey Ray. We'll start there with 24 year old Corey Ray, not to be confused with Royals pitching prospect Corey Ray. The Brewers' Ray had a power breakout in 2018, slashing .239/.323/.477 with 27 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 176/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at AA Biloxi. The scouting report pretty much follows the numbers; he has a sweet swing that produces more power than you'd expect from a six footer, he draws his share of walks, and his plus speed helps him steal plenty of bases and play a pretty good center field. However, as he did in college, he struggles with contact and strikes out at a very high rate. The high strikeout rate has kept his batting average down in the minors, which is a big "so what?" because he draws plenty of walks and hits for power, but that whiff tendency will sap his production in the major leagues if he doesn't get it under control. His ability to make adjustments and recognize major league pitches will determine whether he joins Hiura as an impact player in a Mike Cameron sense on the Brewers teams of the early 2020's or if he ends up a fourth outfielder "almost-was" type of player. Moving up to AAA, 24 year old Mauricio Dubon slashed .343/.348/.574 with four home runs, six stolen bases, and a 19/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games at hitter-friendly AAA Colorado Springs before a torn ACL ended his season in early May. He's a plus hitter that limits his strikeouts and who should have no problem putting major league pitches in play, and he's patient enough that he should be able to post pretty good on-base percentages in the .350 range. On the flip side, his power is mostly to the gaps, where he uses his speed to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Defensively, he's capable of handling shortstop, but just how much punch he can show with the bat in the majors will determine whether he is double play partners with Keston Hiura or just a utility infielder. 23 year old Jacob Nottingham has been a prospect for so long that after he was drafted in the sixth round in 2013 out of high school in California, he was involved in the Scott Kazmir trade of 2015 and the Khris Davis trade of 2016. In 2018, he slashed .281/.347/.528 with ten home runs and a 59/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at Colorado Springs, which is more good than great when you consider his home ballpark. His bat has been very inconsistent over the years, as he looks like a guy who could put up the above slash line in the majors on the right day but one that would get eaten alive on the wrong day. Defensively, the glove has come along to the point where he will stick behind the plate, and at this point the development of his bat will determine whether he starts or ends up a backup. The fact that there are seemingly fewer and fewer capable big league catchers to go around does work in his favor. Moving back down to AA, 23 year old Lucas Erceg slashed .248/.306/.382 with 13 home runs and an 82/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Biloxi, though you can project better numbers in the future if you squint a little. He's got good power, a good approach, and can elevate the ball, but for now it has just added up to an average overall package at the plate. A few adjustments could make him a Travis Shaw-like hitter, but of course those adjustments can be easier said than done. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him a positive presence at third base, and the Brewers just hope the bat comes along in 2019. Across the diamond at first base, 23 year old Jake Gatewood slashed .244/.302/.466 with 19 home runs and a 114/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games for Biloxi, and he finds himself in somewhat of a similar position to Erceg. Erceg is a better pure hitter, but the 6'5" Gatewood has more power projection and could pass Erceg as a prospect if he can hone in his approach in 2019. Becoming more selective at the plate and recognizing pitches better could help Gatewood get to his big raw power more often, and he's moving in the right direction which should give the Brewers hope. Defensively, he's just a first baseman but the glove and arm are both good enough there that he can still contribute. Lastly, 22 year old Troy Stokes Jr. is basically Corey Ray-lite (though he bats right handed), having slashed .233/.343/.430 with 19 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 147/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Biloxi. Like Ray, he's a little guy (just 5'8") who uses his athleticism to hit for more power than you'd expect, steals plenty of bases, and strikes out too much. He's a patient hitter who draws enough walks to offset his low batting averages, though despite his speed, he's not great defensively and probably ends up in left field. Overall, it's a fourth outfield projection, but a fun one.
Mid Minors Hitters: OF Tristen Lutz, C Mario Feliciano, C Payton Henry, and 1B Chad McClanahan
There's more pitching depth than hitting depth in the middle of the system, but there are still a couple of interesting names to track that spent parts or all of 2018 in A ball, all of which were products of the 2016 draft out of high school. 20 year old Tristen Lutz (competitive balance, 34th overall) is likely the best prospect in that group, coming off a season where he slashed .245/.321/.421 with 13 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 139/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Class A Wisconsin. Right now, he shows a good all around game with no standout tool except perhaps his strong arm from the outfield, but he also shows few weaknesses and has the potential to develop parts of his game further. He's strong and should develop more power in the coming seasons, with the ultimate projection of 20-30 home runs per season looking very possible. Unlike a lot of power hitters, he's not slow and can play a solid right field, though he figures to lose a step as he gains strength. His one weakness right now is his tendency to swing and miss, as his high strikeout totals have suppressed his production and will make it somewhat of an uphill climb as he moves through the minors. With more work on his contact ability, he could become a solid regular for the Brewers down the line. 20 year old Mario Feliciano (competitive balance, 75th overall) missed time with injuries this season and slashed just .213/.291/.331 with three home runs and a 62/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games between High A Carolina and complex level rehab, making 2019 a lost season for the otherwise promising prospect. He's extremely advanced for his age and should be able to stick behind the plate, and he'll play all of 2019 at just 20 years old while getting another shot at High A. With his offensive track record at any other position, I probably wouldn't mention him, but catchers are hard to come by and he reached High A at 19 years old, so he's still worth keeping an eye on. 21 year old Payton Henry (sixth round) is another catching prospect worth keeping an eye on, as he slashed .234/.327/.380 with ten home runs and a 124/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 games at Wisconsin in 2018. Despite being nearly a year and a half older than Feliciano, is bat is in pretty much the same spot, if with a little more power and a little less plate discipline, and his defense is coming along to where he should stick behind the plate. Feliciano has more time to develop and has already tasted High A, but Henry won't be coming off a lost season and it should be interesting to see who moves ahead. Lastly, 21 year old Chad McClanahan (11th round) has moved along slowly, just tasting Class A this year as he slashed .263/.347/.452 with nine home runs and an 88/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games between rookie level Helena and Wisconsin. He was much better at Helena (.301/.382/.541) than Wisconsin (.171/.261/.237), a breakdown in his plate discipline showing why the Brewers have been cautious about promoting him. At 6'5", he has some of the best raw power projection in the system, but the Brewers are continuing to work with him on his pitch recognition and plate discipline. This gives him a wide range of potential outcomes, with the possibility that he figures it all out and becomes a 20-30 homer bat, or the possibility that he flares out in A ball.
Lower Level Hitters: SS Brice Turang, OF Joe Gray, OF Je'Von Ward, OF Larry Ernesto, and OF Carlos Rodriguez
As is the case with most organizations, some of the Brewers' most interesting talent is down in rookie ball, including one player who could work his way up to being the top prospect in the system by the time Keston Hiura graduates. That player is 19 year old Brice Turang, a first round pick (21st overall) out of a southern California high school in 2018. Turang was actually a very early candidate to go first overall, but a so-so summer of 2017 dropped his stock a little bit, and he never recovered it. After being drafted, he slashed .283/.396/.352 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 34/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games between complex ball and rookie level Helena. Those numbers match the scouting reports exactly, as Turang brings an advanced approach, solid bat to ball skills, good speed, and good defense at shortstop. Really, his only weakness is power, as he is very skinny and employs more of a line drive approach right now. His plate discipline and hand eye coordination will help him continue to put up good numbers as he moves through the minors and his speed and defense will buy the power plenty of time to develop, so he has a fairly high floor as far as high schoolers go. Ultimately, he has a Jimmy Rollins ceiling (though he'll probably never match that power/speed combination) and might end up more as a utility guy if he continues to do little more than spray line drives at the plate. 18 year old Joe Gray was the second round pick (60th overall) of the same draft out of a Mississippi high school, and he struggled a bit by slashing .182/.347/.325 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 25/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games in complex ball after signing. Gray is a very different player from Turang, using his lightning quick hands and bat to produce plenty of raw power, and unlike many power hitters, he has some good speed as well. Combine that with his cannon arm to make him an asset in right field and he really only has one weakness as a player; his pitch recognition. His hands are plenty quick enough to catch up to velocity and make adjustments on breaking balls, but he just gets fooled too much even against lower level pitching. He has a very low floor and lots of bust potential, but if the Brewers can iron out that plate discipline and help him get to his power consistently, he could be a special player. 19 year old Je'Von Ward was a twelfth round pick out of high school in southern California in 2017, but he was young for his class and spent 2018 with Helena, slashing .307/.391/.403 with two home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 57/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. He's more of a sleeper prospect with no standout tools, but he handled rookie ball very well at just 18 years old and has the tools to be a breakout prospect in A ball in 2019. With his speed, youth, and all-around skill set, he's one to keep an eye on. Lastly, 18 year olds Larry Ernesto and Carlos Rodriguez just made their pro debuts in 2018 after being signed out of the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, respectively. Ernesto slashed .247/.300/.399 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 74/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games in complex ball, while Rodriguez put up a .325/.363/.414 line with two home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. While Rodriguez had the better numbers, Ernesto carries the higher ceiling with his power, speed, and projectable defense in the outfield. It remains to be seen whether he can develop his power without losing speed, but he's strong enough and has enough feel for the barrel that he could plausibly keep both. However, he is raw on both sides of the ball (as is expected for an 18 year old) and will most importantly need to improve his plate discipline. Rodriguez is smaller at 5'10" and just 150 pounds, but he has combined excellent bat to ball skills with some surprising gap power, proving he is more than just a slap hitter. He actually makes such ready contact that he rarely walks, but he puts the ball in play enough to use his speed well. Going forward, there is little doubt that he will be able to handle more advanced pitching, with his ultimate projection depending on a) whether he becomes more patient at the plate and draws more walks and b) how much that line drive power can continue to manifest itself at the higher levels.
The Pitchers: RHP Zack Brown, RHP Trey Supak, RHP Marcos Diplan, RHP Braden Webb, RHP Cody Ponce, LHP Aaron Ashby, RHP Caden Lemons, and RHP Phil Bickford
There aren't many notable pitchers in this system, and six of the most interesting are right in that High A/AA stage. Brown, Supak, Webb, and Ponce are all workhorse, mid to back of the rotation starters, though many of the younger guys look to develop differently. 24 year old Zack Brown looks like the most complete prospect in the system at this point, coming off an excellent 2018 where he went 9-1 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 119/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.2 innings, all but two of which were at AA Biloxi. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a very good curveball, and though his command is more good than great, he's a smart pitcher who gets his outs on the ground but who can also use that curveball as a swing and miss pitch when he needs it. At this point, he projects as a solid #3 starter who could be in the majors soon. 22 year old Trey Supak is a big, 6'5" Texas righty that fits the stereotype, throwing in the low 90's and adding a solid curve and change, all of which he mixes well. That led to a 2.48 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 123/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at High A Carolina and Biloxi, putting him in a good position to fight for a major league rotation spot in late 2019 or early 2020. He is a year and a half younger than Brown, though ultimately he still needs to take another step forward if he wants to be more than a #4 or #5 starter. At this point, that's his projection: a workhorse who can eat up innings and keep his ERA closer to 4.00 than 5.00. 22 year old Marcos Diplan is a different kind of pitcher, and he just finished a 2018 where he posted a 4.08 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 117/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings at Carolina and Biloxi. He is much less workhorse and much more projection, showing a low to mid 90's fastball and a great slider, with the only problem being that he doesn't quite know where either pitch is going when he throws them. His delivery is not high effort, but he struggles to repeat his arm slot and therein lies the problem. Getting more consistent with his mechanics and then focusing on improving his changeup could make him a mid rotation starter, but if he can't, he looks like a solid bullpen arm. 23 year old Braden Webb and 24 year old Cody Ponce are both fringe rotation prospects who have a chance to end up being #5 starters or wind up as long relievers, with Webb posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 128/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at Carolina and Biloxi and Ponce putting up a 4.36 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an 88/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings at Biloxi. Webb is a little bit more explosive and looked very good in a short AA stint, while the 6'6" Ponce is more of a workhorse in the Trey Supak vein. Webb has the stuff to be a successful back-end starter, but his command is so-so and there are pitchers with the same stuff and better command (like Supak). On the flip side, Ponce has the command to be a major league starter, but his stuff is just a little light and at this point he looks more like a long reliever. I like Webb better at this point, as he is a year younger and has a higher ceiling, but both have adjustments to make. Lower down in the system, 20 year old Aaron Ashby, the only lefty on this list, was just drafted in the fourth round out of junior college in Missouri, then got off to a fast start by posting a 3.59 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 66/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 57.2 innings between Helena and Class A Wisconsin, actually posting better numbers after his promotion (2.17 ERA, 47/9 K/BB vs 6.20 ERA, 19/8 K/BB at Helena). He throws comfortably in the low to mid 90's and can hit 100 if you ask him to, also showing a big curveball that gets plenty of swings and misses. His command was considered questionable at best on draft day, but he kept it in the strike zone very well in pro ball and has a chance to become the best pitching prospect in the system with a breakout in 2019. 20 year old Caden Lemons has a high ceiling but lots of work to do to get there. The skinny 6'6" righty posted a 4.26 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings in complex ball and rookie ball in Helena with the Brewers focusing more on practice than in-game reps. Lemons throws in the low 90's but it is easy to envision more velocity once he fills out his frame, and his slider has made some progress. He still remains a project, even a lottery ticket of sorts, but the ceiling is high enough that he is worth watching. Lastly, we have 23 year old Phil Bickford, the two-time first round pick (10th overall in 2013 and 18th in 2015) who has fallen from grace after a big 2016 season in A ball (2.93 ERA, 135/42 K/BB). A second failed recreational drug test and a broken hand limited him to 17 innings in 2017, then he posted a 4.67 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 41/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings at Carolina in 2018. He's a fastball/slider guy who has good enough command to make it work as a starter if he can stay on the mound consistently, but he has been inconsistent even when on the mound and it looks like he's going to end up as a reliever at this point.
Sunday, January 13, 2019
Reviewing the Colorado Rockies Farm System
The Rockies face a unique challenge in that playing at Coors Field is unlike playing anywhere else. Hitters who can get the ball in the air are preferred, and pitchers who succeed with velocity and swing and miss stuff are preferred over those who pitch to contact. Rockies prospects also face a fairly unique climb through the minors, as every affiliate except for AA Hartford is hitter-friendly, preparing players for Coors Field but also testing the confidence of the pitchers. The system now is pretty top heavy, with a few very interesting names as the top prospects, but there is a sharp drop off after the best eight or so prospects, leaving the system without a ton of depth. Interestingly, there are virtually no outfield or catching prospects of much significance, with the hitters playing various positions throughout the infield.
Affiliates: AAA Albuquerque Isotopes, AA Hartford Yard Goats, High A Lancaster JetHawks, Class A Asheville Tourists, Short Season Boise Hawks, rookie level Grand Junction Rockies, and complex level DSL Rockies
*Note: when evaluating stats from this system, it is important to remember that virtually every affiliate, save for AA Hartford, is hitter-friendly, with High A Lancaster being the most hitter friendly stadium in the most hitter friendly league in minor league baseball.
The Headliner: 2B/3B Brendan Rodgers
22 year old former third overall pick Brendan Rodgers is the best prospect in the Rockies' system and likely one of the top fifteen or so in the game, showing an impact bat with the ability to play a strong second or third base. In 2018, he slashed .260/.330/.460 with 17 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque, though he was much better at Hartford (.275/.342/.493) than Albuquerque (.232/.264/.290). He has power and drives the ball well to all fields, and he's just about major league ready well short of his 23rd birthday. Really, all the Orlando area native has left to work on is his approach at the plate, as it is good enough for him to punish AA pitching but was exposed in AAA. While he is able to hit for power while avoiding high numbers of strikeouts, he doesn't draw many walks and major league pitchers will just pound the corners against him. With some work in spring training and early 2019, he should be major league ready soon, and if he's armed with an improved approach, he should be an impact bat in the Colorado lineup. While he profiles best as a third baseman defensively with his strong arm, Nolan Arenado has that spot locked down and Rodgers is more likely to fill in at second base in 2019 behind Daniel Murphy, after which he can give the Rockies third base insurance in the case that Arenado leaves via free agency.
Starting Pitching Options: RHP Peter Lambert, RHP Rico Garcia, RHP Jesus Tinoco, RHP Ryan Castellani, RHP Riley Pint, and LHP Ryan Rolison
While the Rockies' emphasis on velocity has led to many of their pitching prospects ending up in the bullpen, they have managed to develop a nice set of starting pitchers ready to compete against their exceptionally young starting rotation. 21 year old Peter Lambert is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, just completing a season in the high minors where he went 10-7 with a 3.28 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 106/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings at AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque. He was dominant at Hartford (2.23 ERA, 75/12 K/BB) but took some lumps in his transition to hitter-friendly Albuquerque (5.04 ERA, 31/15 K/BB), though he still held his own at the higher level and should be able to master it in 2019. He is a very advanced, mid-rotation looking pitcher with a low to mid 90's fastball, decent breaking pitches, a great changeup, and great command of it all that helps it all play up. He can locate any of his pitches and routinely gets ahead in the count, enabling him to keep hitters guessing even with his good-not-great stuff. He did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2018 and if he can continue to do so in Colorado, Lambert could have a long career as a #3 starter. 25 year old Rico Garcia had a fantastic season statistically, going 13-9 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 162/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 167 innings at High A Lancaster and Hartford, looking completely unfazed both by the hitters' paradise in Lancaster (3.42 ERA) and by the promotion up to AA (2.28 ERA). Turning 25 as I write this article, Garcia has been a bit older than the competition he is facing, and the former 30th round pick's stuff is just average at this point. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good curveball, and he has been effective at landing his pitches for strikes. He's probably more of a #4 or #5 starter in the majors, but his numbers don't lie and he may not be challenged until he reaches the majors. 23 year old Jesus Tinoco has been around forever, having played professional baseball since 2012 and having been included in the Troy Tulowitzki trade of 2015. Working slowly through the minors, the 6'4" righty posted a 4.79 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 innings at Hartford in 2018. He has good stuff all around and avoids walks, but he has been hurt by his tendency to leave pitches over the plate and falls victim to the home run ball. He has the chance to be a solid #3 or #4 starter if he can get a bit more consistent with his command, where he is trending in the right direction, but Colorado might not be the best environment for him if he can't keep balls in the park. 22 year old Ryan Castellani moved quickly through the minors for a high school draftee before stalling a bit in AA, taking a step back in 2018 with a 5.49 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a 91/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings in his second year at the level. While his stuff is very good, he struggled with command this year and without a turnaround in 2019, he's likely headed for the bullpen, where his very good fastball/slider combination will play up. He doesn't turn 23 until the beginning of the season and he already has plenty of experience in the high minors, albeit without much success there, giving him time to turn things around. 21 year old Riley Pint has the highest ceiling in the system, though like fellow former first rounder/electric armed pitcher Mike Nikorak, he has struggled with his command and his health. One online scouting report before the 2016 draft, where Pint was the fourth overall pick out of high school near Kansas City, wrote that Pint threw "poorly aimed lightning bolts" and honestly I think that is the best summation of his pitching that I have heard. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit as high as 102, and with his solid and deep assortment of secondary pitches, he has ace-like stuff. However, he frequently has no idea where his fastball is going, and the truth is, major league hitters can hit 102 when it's over the plate and they're ahead in the count. The other issue with Pint has been health, with forearm and oblique issues limiting him to four starts in 2018, in which he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 2.04 WHIP, and an 8/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings at short season Boise and Class A Asheville. He's basically a huge question mark at this point, but some consistent time on the mound might help his command improve, after which he could take off towards his top of the rotation potential. Lastly, 21 year old Ryan Rolison was a first round pick (22nd overall) out of Ole Miss in 2018, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings with rookie level Grand Junction after the draft. While the rest of his game is good, he's most well known for his curveball, a true plus pitch with great break and which he can command well enough to throw in any count. He also adds a low 90's fastball and some feel for a slider and a changeup, giving him #2 starter upside. His biggest issue in college was start to start consistency with his command, though if it is resolved soon he could move quickly through the minors.
Bat First Prospects: 3B Colton Welker, 1B Tyler Nevin, 1B Grant Lavigne, 1B Roberto Ramos, OF Vince Fernandez, OF Casey Golden, 2B Terrin Vavra, and OF Niko Decolati
Among the bat-first prospects, which in general are the better position-playing prospects in the system, there are really two tiers with three potential impact bats (after Rodgers) and five guys who are more likely to be utility/bench options, of course with plenty more fringe prospects behind them that won't be mentioned here. We'll start with 21 year old Colton Welker, a talented all-around third base prospect who slashed .333/.383/.489 with 13 home runs and a 103/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at the hitters' paradise in High A Lancaster. Welker has no real weaknesses in his game, showing on-base ability, some power, and good defense at third base, but he also lacks a standout tool. The Rockies have a ton of corner infield prospects but competition aside, he looks like a potential starter there if he continues to produce as he moves through the system, but if he has trouble making the transition to AA, his outlook may be downgraded to utility infielder. 21 year old Tyler Nevin played across from Welker in that Lancaster infield, slashing .328/.386/.503 with 13 home runs and a 77/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games. As with Welker, those numbers are inflated due to the environment, but he shows a similar skill set at the plate with the ability to get on base and hit for some power. However, Welker is the better prospect because of defensive value, as Nevin is an average-fielding first baseman while Welker has a good glove at third base. While you can argue back and forth over who is the better hitter (Welker is the better pure hitter while Nevin has a hair more power potential due to his size), Welker will get more chances if the bat falters due to that defensive versatility. Lastly among the first tier hitters, 19 year old Grant Lavigne has been a very pleasant surprise. Drafted in the competitive balance round (42nd overall) out of a New Hampshire high school this year, Lavigne's bat was a question mark just due to the fact that New Hampshire high school pitching is nowhere near the caliber that, for example, Welker faced in south Florida or Nevin faced in San Diego. However, Lavigne answered those questions emphatically by slashing .350/.477/.519 with six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against advanced competition at rookie level Grand Junction. He showed the thunder in his bat but more importantly, he showed a very advanced approach against the best pitching he had ever seen, and even though he's limited to first base defensively, he could move to the top of the prospect charts very quickly with a successful year in A ball in 2019. Moving into the second tier, 24 year old Roberto Ramos had a big year by slashing .269/.368/.574 with 32 home runs and a 140/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Lancaster and AA Hartford. While his line was much better at Lancaster (.304/.411/.640) than at Hartford (.231/.320/.503), he still maintained a high walk rate and plenty of power even with the promotion, meaning to me that the bat is for real. He's a first baseman who strikes out a lot, so that will likely keep him from becoming a starter in the majors, but there is enough power in the bat to profile well at Coors Field and give him a shot as a bench option. 23 year old Vince Fernandez, arguably the best outfield prospect in a system that has very few of those, slashed .265/.370/.532 with 24 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Lancaster. The altitude definitely inflated his power numbers some, but he still hit nearly as many home runs as Welker and Nevin combined while adding 25 doubles and eight triples, and he has plenty of patience at the plate which helps push up his on-base percentage. However, he'll have to cut down on the strikeouts if he wants to succeed even at AA, and at this point he looks like a fourth or fifth outfielder. Right behind him is 24 year old power hitting outfielder Casey Golden, who slashed .278/.359/.562 with 34 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 180/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Asheville, another power-friendly environment. Add in his 20 home runs in his pro debut last season and he now has 54 home runs, 37 doubles, and four triples over 178 pro games for a total of 95 extra base hits, though his plate discipline needs serious work. Having turned 24 at the end of the 2018 season, he's been striking out way too much against younger competition, but if he can somehow figure out a way to shore up that approach quickly, that power and speed will play very nicely at Coors Field. 21 year old Terrin Vavra was a third round pick (96th overall) out of Minnesota who slashed .302/.396/.467 with four home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 40/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at short season Boise, like Welker showing a little bit of everything. He doesn't have Welker's power, but he has a very keen approach at the plate and sprays line drives all over the field while holding his own with decent second base defense. He's a classic utility infielder projection but could surprise if he can add some power. Lastly, 21 year old Niko Decolati was a sixth rounder out of Loyola Marymount in the same draft, coming into pro ball with plenty of batting practice power but struggling to get to it in games. He had an uphill climb in learning to do so with wood bats after mostly failing to do so with metal, but the Rockies must have done something right with him as he slashed .327/.414/.532 with 11 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 56/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Grand Junction. Decolati is still very much an under the radar prospect, but if whatever adjustments the Rockies had him make hold in the higher levels, he won't be under the radar much longer. Watch Decolati closely.
Glove First Prospects: 2B Garrett Hampson, 3B Ryan Vilade, OF Josh Fuentes, OF Sam Hilliard, and OF Yonathan Daza
Much like with the bat-first prospects, there are two tiers with these players. Garrett Hampson and Ryan Vilade can also swing it and have a good shot at ending up as starters, while the rest are likely going to be relegated to bench and utility duties. 24 year old Garrett Hampson is the best prospect in the group, having finished a 2018 where he slashed .311/.382/.462 with ten home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 75/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Hartford and hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque before putting up a .275/.396/.400 line in a quick 24 game debut with the Rockies. While the bat may be a bit light if he wants to stick as a starter long term, he's a good enough defender to handle second or third base and has an advanced approach at the plate that will enable him to handle major league pitching. Nolan Arenado has a tight grip on third base for 2019 and Daniel Murphy is a newcomer at second base, so Hampson and Rodgers will have to battle it out for the remainder of the plate appearances. While Rodgers will likely take a little more AAA seasoning, Hampson is ready now and should be set to break camp as a utility infielder. 19 year old Ryan Vilade had a so-so season, slashing .274/.353/.368 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at hitter-friendly Class A Asheville. While Class A is a moderately advanced assignment for a teenager, Asheville's short fences produce a lot of home runs and Vilade's lack of power output was a bit disappointing. Still, he handled Sally League pitching well otherwise and the Rockies hope that he'll hit for more power in 2019, which would make him a very attractive prospect given his advanced approach at the plate and good defense on the left side of the infield. In the second tier, 25 year old Josh Fuentes slashed .327/.354/.517 with 14 home runs and a 103/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque in 2018, showing enough thump in his bat to get a chance in 2019. He probably won't ever start regularly in the majors, but with the ability to both swing it and play in the infield, he figures to factor into the Colorado bench equation this season. 24 year old Sam Hilliard is a fourth outfielder type who slashed .262/.327/.389 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 151/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Hartford, posting the worst numbers of his career in his first season in a non-hitter friendly environment (for comparison, he slashed .300/.360/.487 with 21 home runs at hitters' paradise Lancaster in 2017). He has some speed and plays great defense despite standing 6'5", but the bat is ultimately too light to start and he looks kind of like a Drew Stubbs-type player with less power. He'll definitely be useful in Colorado as a bench asset to man that extensive outfield and suck up fly balls. 24 year old Yonathan Daza is in a similar boat to Hilliard, having slashed .306/.330/.461 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games at Hartford this year, missing a good chunk of the season with hamstring issues. He's considered an even better defender than Hilliard, though he's more of a line drive/slap hitter while Hilliard is balanced with moderate power and moderate on-base ability. In that sense, I think Hilliard is the slightly better prospect because he could have more impact with the bat if he makes enough contact, but Daza's defense will buy the bat time and he could be something of a DJ LeMahieu type at the plate in a best case scenario.
Relief Options: RHP Reid Humphreys, RHP Justin Lawrence, LHP Ben Bowden, RHP Robert Tyler, and RHP Tommy Doyle
The Rockies have a very solid group of relievers in the minors, perhaps one of the better groups in baseball. Relievers aren't necessarily the most prized prospects, but it's something the Rockies can hang their hats on. No single reliever stands out as the best prospect, but 24 year old Reid Humphreys is the most advanced out of what I would call the five best relief prospects in the system. The 6'1" righty out of Mississippi State posted a 2.03 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 58/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings at High A Lancaster and AA Hartford, handling the tough environment at Lancaster very well before letting his command get away from him in a short stint at Hartford. He's a fastball/cutter guy who sits in the mid to upper 90's with the former and can generate a ton of weak contact with the latter, and he can use his slider to give hitters another look. His command comes and goes, but if he can get a bit more consistent with it, then he can use his velocity and array of moving pitches to survive Coors Field as a solid reliever. 24 year old Justin Lawrence, born just four days after Humphreys, spent all of 2018 at Lancaster and posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 62/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings. Like Humphreys, he throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, which features more movement and deception and generates plenty of ground balls. His secondary pitches aren't as advanced as Humphreys', but he does have a slider to give hitters a different look and keep them from sitting on the fastball. Overall, Humphreys is probably the better pitcher but Lawrence's sinking fastball will help him thrive at Coors Field. 24 year old Ben Bowden is more of a complete pitcher than Humphreys or Lawrence, mixing a mid 90's fastball with a slider and a good changeup, all of which he commands pretty well. That helped him post a 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 78/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at Class A Asheville and Lancaster a year after missing all of 2017 to back issues. Fully healthy now, the big, 6'4" lefty should move quickly through the minors and settle in as an 8th inning type soon. 23 year old Robert Tyler is an interesting pitcher simply because of his velocity. His upper 90's fastball got him drafted in the competitive balance round (38th overall) out of Georgia in 2016, though he hasn't quite translated that velocity to results yet. After missing 2017 with shoulder issues, he posted a 5.10 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 57/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.2 innings at Asheville and Lancaster, giving up more hits and hard contact than you'd expect because hitters could get ahead in the count and sit on the fastball, or because he would leave it over the plate. His changeup is good and gives hitters a second look, but he won't break through until he learns to hit his spots. Lastly, 22 year old Tommy Doyle, who I played against when I was 11-12 in Little League in Virginia (he struck me out in my only plate appearance against him), posted a 2.31 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings in Asheville, using a mid 90's fastball and a good slider from a 6'6" frame to miss bats. He dominated younger competition in 2018, so how he handles the higher levels and more age-appropriate competition in 2019 will be interesting. He also has set-up man possibilities but more likely profiles as a middle reliever.
Affiliates: AAA Albuquerque Isotopes, AA Hartford Yard Goats, High A Lancaster JetHawks, Class A Asheville Tourists, Short Season Boise Hawks, rookie level Grand Junction Rockies, and complex level DSL Rockies
*Note: when evaluating stats from this system, it is important to remember that virtually every affiliate, save for AA Hartford, is hitter-friendly, with High A Lancaster being the most hitter friendly stadium in the most hitter friendly league in minor league baseball.
The Headliner: 2B/3B Brendan Rodgers
22 year old former third overall pick Brendan Rodgers is the best prospect in the Rockies' system and likely one of the top fifteen or so in the game, showing an impact bat with the ability to play a strong second or third base. In 2018, he slashed .260/.330/.460 with 17 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games between AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque, though he was much better at Hartford (.275/.342/.493) than Albuquerque (.232/.264/.290). He has power and drives the ball well to all fields, and he's just about major league ready well short of his 23rd birthday. Really, all the Orlando area native has left to work on is his approach at the plate, as it is good enough for him to punish AA pitching but was exposed in AAA. While he is able to hit for power while avoiding high numbers of strikeouts, he doesn't draw many walks and major league pitchers will just pound the corners against him. With some work in spring training and early 2019, he should be major league ready soon, and if he's armed with an improved approach, he should be an impact bat in the Colorado lineup. While he profiles best as a third baseman defensively with his strong arm, Nolan Arenado has that spot locked down and Rodgers is more likely to fill in at second base in 2019 behind Daniel Murphy, after which he can give the Rockies third base insurance in the case that Arenado leaves via free agency.
Starting Pitching Options: RHP Peter Lambert, RHP Rico Garcia, RHP Jesus Tinoco, RHP Ryan Castellani, RHP Riley Pint, and LHP Ryan Rolison
While the Rockies' emphasis on velocity has led to many of their pitching prospects ending up in the bullpen, they have managed to develop a nice set of starting pitchers ready to compete against their exceptionally young starting rotation. 21 year old Peter Lambert is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, just completing a season in the high minors where he went 10-7 with a 3.28 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 106/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings at AA Hartford and AAA Albuquerque. He was dominant at Hartford (2.23 ERA, 75/12 K/BB) but took some lumps in his transition to hitter-friendly Albuquerque (5.04 ERA, 31/15 K/BB), though he still held his own at the higher level and should be able to master it in 2019. He is a very advanced, mid-rotation looking pitcher with a low to mid 90's fastball, decent breaking pitches, a great changeup, and great command of it all that helps it all play up. He can locate any of his pitches and routinely gets ahead in the count, enabling him to keep hitters guessing even with his good-not-great stuff. He did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground in 2018 and if he can continue to do so in Colorado, Lambert could have a long career as a #3 starter. 25 year old Rico Garcia had a fantastic season statistically, going 13-9 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 162/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 167 innings at High A Lancaster and Hartford, looking completely unfazed both by the hitters' paradise in Lancaster (3.42 ERA) and by the promotion up to AA (2.28 ERA). Turning 25 as I write this article, Garcia has been a bit older than the competition he is facing, and the former 30th round pick's stuff is just average at this point. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good curveball, and he has been effective at landing his pitches for strikes. He's probably more of a #4 or #5 starter in the majors, but his numbers don't lie and he may not be challenged until he reaches the majors. 23 year old Jesus Tinoco has been around forever, having played professional baseball since 2012 and having been included in the Troy Tulowitzki trade of 2015. Working slowly through the minors, the 6'4" righty posted a 4.79 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 innings at Hartford in 2018. He has good stuff all around and avoids walks, but he has been hurt by his tendency to leave pitches over the plate and falls victim to the home run ball. He has the chance to be a solid #3 or #4 starter if he can get a bit more consistent with his command, where he is trending in the right direction, but Colorado might not be the best environment for him if he can't keep balls in the park. 22 year old Ryan Castellani moved quickly through the minors for a high school draftee before stalling a bit in AA, taking a step back in 2018 with a 5.49 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a 91/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings in his second year at the level. While his stuff is very good, he struggled with command this year and without a turnaround in 2019, he's likely headed for the bullpen, where his very good fastball/slider combination will play up. He doesn't turn 23 until the beginning of the season and he already has plenty of experience in the high minors, albeit without much success there, giving him time to turn things around. 21 year old Riley Pint has the highest ceiling in the system, though like fellow former first rounder/electric armed pitcher Mike Nikorak, he has struggled with his command and his health. One online scouting report before the 2016 draft, where Pint was the fourth overall pick out of high school near Kansas City, wrote that Pint threw "poorly aimed lightning bolts" and honestly I think that is the best summation of his pitching that I have heard. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit as high as 102, and with his solid and deep assortment of secondary pitches, he has ace-like stuff. However, he frequently has no idea where his fastball is going, and the truth is, major league hitters can hit 102 when it's over the plate and they're ahead in the count. The other issue with Pint has been health, with forearm and oblique issues limiting him to four starts in 2018, in which he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 2.04 WHIP, and an 8/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.1 innings at short season Boise and Class A Asheville. He's basically a huge question mark at this point, but some consistent time on the mound might help his command improve, after which he could take off towards his top of the rotation potential. Lastly, 21 year old Ryan Rolison was a first round pick (22nd overall) out of Ole Miss in 2018, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings with rookie level Grand Junction after the draft. While the rest of his game is good, he's most well known for his curveball, a true plus pitch with great break and which he can command well enough to throw in any count. He also adds a low 90's fastball and some feel for a slider and a changeup, giving him #2 starter upside. His biggest issue in college was start to start consistency with his command, though if it is resolved soon he could move quickly through the minors.
Bat First Prospects: 3B Colton Welker, 1B Tyler Nevin, 1B Grant Lavigne, 1B Roberto Ramos, OF Vince Fernandez, OF Casey Golden, 2B Terrin Vavra, and OF Niko Decolati
Among the bat-first prospects, which in general are the better position-playing prospects in the system, there are really two tiers with three potential impact bats (after Rodgers) and five guys who are more likely to be utility/bench options, of course with plenty more fringe prospects behind them that won't be mentioned here. We'll start with 21 year old Colton Welker, a talented all-around third base prospect who slashed .333/.383/.489 with 13 home runs and a 103/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at the hitters' paradise in High A Lancaster. Welker has no real weaknesses in his game, showing on-base ability, some power, and good defense at third base, but he also lacks a standout tool. The Rockies have a ton of corner infield prospects but competition aside, he looks like a potential starter there if he continues to produce as he moves through the system, but if he has trouble making the transition to AA, his outlook may be downgraded to utility infielder. 21 year old Tyler Nevin played across from Welker in that Lancaster infield, slashing .328/.386/.503 with 13 home runs and a 77/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games. As with Welker, those numbers are inflated due to the environment, but he shows a similar skill set at the plate with the ability to get on base and hit for some power. However, Welker is the better prospect because of defensive value, as Nevin is an average-fielding first baseman while Welker has a good glove at third base. While you can argue back and forth over who is the better hitter (Welker is the better pure hitter while Nevin has a hair more power potential due to his size), Welker will get more chances if the bat falters due to that defensive versatility. Lastly among the first tier hitters, 19 year old Grant Lavigne has been a very pleasant surprise. Drafted in the competitive balance round (42nd overall) out of a New Hampshire high school this year, Lavigne's bat was a question mark just due to the fact that New Hampshire high school pitching is nowhere near the caliber that, for example, Welker faced in south Florida or Nevin faced in San Diego. However, Lavigne answered those questions emphatically by slashing .350/.477/.519 with six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against advanced competition at rookie level Grand Junction. He showed the thunder in his bat but more importantly, he showed a very advanced approach against the best pitching he had ever seen, and even though he's limited to first base defensively, he could move to the top of the prospect charts very quickly with a successful year in A ball in 2019. Moving into the second tier, 24 year old Roberto Ramos had a big year by slashing .269/.368/.574 with 32 home runs and a 140/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Lancaster and AA Hartford. While his line was much better at Lancaster (.304/.411/.640) than at Hartford (.231/.320/.503), he still maintained a high walk rate and plenty of power even with the promotion, meaning to me that the bat is for real. He's a first baseman who strikes out a lot, so that will likely keep him from becoming a starter in the majors, but there is enough power in the bat to profile well at Coors Field and give him a shot as a bench option. 23 year old Vince Fernandez, arguably the best outfield prospect in a system that has very few of those, slashed .265/.370/.532 with 24 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 172/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Lancaster. The altitude definitely inflated his power numbers some, but he still hit nearly as many home runs as Welker and Nevin combined while adding 25 doubles and eight triples, and he has plenty of patience at the plate which helps push up his on-base percentage. However, he'll have to cut down on the strikeouts if he wants to succeed even at AA, and at this point he looks like a fourth or fifth outfielder. Right behind him is 24 year old power hitting outfielder Casey Golden, who slashed .278/.359/.562 with 34 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 180/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Asheville, another power-friendly environment. Add in his 20 home runs in his pro debut last season and he now has 54 home runs, 37 doubles, and four triples over 178 pro games for a total of 95 extra base hits, though his plate discipline needs serious work. Having turned 24 at the end of the 2018 season, he's been striking out way too much against younger competition, but if he can somehow figure out a way to shore up that approach quickly, that power and speed will play very nicely at Coors Field. 21 year old Terrin Vavra was a third round pick (96th overall) out of Minnesota who slashed .302/.396/.467 with four home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 40/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at short season Boise, like Welker showing a little bit of everything. He doesn't have Welker's power, but he has a very keen approach at the plate and sprays line drives all over the field while holding his own with decent second base defense. He's a classic utility infielder projection but could surprise if he can add some power. Lastly, 21 year old Niko Decolati was a sixth rounder out of Loyola Marymount in the same draft, coming into pro ball with plenty of batting practice power but struggling to get to it in games. He had an uphill climb in learning to do so with wood bats after mostly failing to do so with metal, but the Rockies must have done something right with him as he slashed .327/.414/.532 with 11 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 56/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Grand Junction. Decolati is still very much an under the radar prospect, but if whatever adjustments the Rockies had him make hold in the higher levels, he won't be under the radar much longer. Watch Decolati closely.
Glove First Prospects: 2B Garrett Hampson, 3B Ryan Vilade, OF Josh Fuentes, OF Sam Hilliard, and OF Yonathan Daza
Much like with the bat-first prospects, there are two tiers with these players. Garrett Hampson and Ryan Vilade can also swing it and have a good shot at ending up as starters, while the rest are likely going to be relegated to bench and utility duties. 24 year old Garrett Hampson is the best prospect in the group, having finished a 2018 where he slashed .311/.382/.462 with ten home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 75/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AA Hartford and hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque before putting up a .275/.396/.400 line in a quick 24 game debut with the Rockies. While the bat may be a bit light if he wants to stick as a starter long term, he's a good enough defender to handle second or third base and has an advanced approach at the plate that will enable him to handle major league pitching. Nolan Arenado has a tight grip on third base for 2019 and Daniel Murphy is a newcomer at second base, so Hampson and Rodgers will have to battle it out for the remainder of the plate appearances. While Rodgers will likely take a little more AAA seasoning, Hampson is ready now and should be set to break camp as a utility infielder. 19 year old Ryan Vilade had a so-so season, slashing .274/.353/.368 with five home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at hitter-friendly Class A Asheville. While Class A is a moderately advanced assignment for a teenager, Asheville's short fences produce a lot of home runs and Vilade's lack of power output was a bit disappointing. Still, he handled Sally League pitching well otherwise and the Rockies hope that he'll hit for more power in 2019, which would make him a very attractive prospect given his advanced approach at the plate and good defense on the left side of the infield. In the second tier, 25 year old Josh Fuentes slashed .327/.354/.517 with 14 home runs and a 103/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at hitter-friendly AAA Albuquerque in 2018, showing enough thump in his bat to get a chance in 2019. He probably won't ever start regularly in the majors, but with the ability to both swing it and play in the infield, he figures to factor into the Colorado bench equation this season. 24 year old Sam Hilliard is a fourth outfielder type who slashed .262/.327/.389 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 151/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Hartford, posting the worst numbers of his career in his first season in a non-hitter friendly environment (for comparison, he slashed .300/.360/.487 with 21 home runs at hitters' paradise Lancaster in 2017). He has some speed and plays great defense despite standing 6'5", but the bat is ultimately too light to start and he looks kind of like a Drew Stubbs-type player with less power. He'll definitely be useful in Colorado as a bench asset to man that extensive outfield and suck up fly balls. 24 year old Yonathan Daza is in a similar boat to Hilliard, having slashed .306/.330/.461 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games at Hartford this year, missing a good chunk of the season with hamstring issues. He's considered an even better defender than Hilliard, though he's more of a line drive/slap hitter while Hilliard is balanced with moderate power and moderate on-base ability. In that sense, I think Hilliard is the slightly better prospect because he could have more impact with the bat if he makes enough contact, but Daza's defense will buy the bat time and he could be something of a DJ LeMahieu type at the plate in a best case scenario.
Relief Options: RHP Reid Humphreys, RHP Justin Lawrence, LHP Ben Bowden, RHP Robert Tyler, and RHP Tommy Doyle
The Rockies have a very solid group of relievers in the minors, perhaps one of the better groups in baseball. Relievers aren't necessarily the most prized prospects, but it's something the Rockies can hang their hats on. No single reliever stands out as the best prospect, but 24 year old Reid Humphreys is the most advanced out of what I would call the five best relief prospects in the system. The 6'1" righty out of Mississippi State posted a 2.03 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 58/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings at High A Lancaster and AA Hartford, handling the tough environment at Lancaster very well before letting his command get away from him in a short stint at Hartford. He's a fastball/cutter guy who sits in the mid to upper 90's with the former and can generate a ton of weak contact with the latter, and he can use his slider to give hitters another look. His command comes and goes, but if he can get a bit more consistent with it, then he can use his velocity and array of moving pitches to survive Coors Field as a solid reliever. 24 year old Justin Lawrence, born just four days after Humphreys, spent all of 2018 at Lancaster and posted a 2.65 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 62/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings. Like Humphreys, he throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, which features more movement and deception and generates plenty of ground balls. His secondary pitches aren't as advanced as Humphreys', but he does have a slider to give hitters a different look and keep them from sitting on the fastball. Overall, Humphreys is probably the better pitcher but Lawrence's sinking fastball will help him thrive at Coors Field. 24 year old Ben Bowden is more of a complete pitcher than Humphreys or Lawrence, mixing a mid 90's fastball with a slider and a good changeup, all of which he commands pretty well. That helped him post a 3.98 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 78/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at Class A Asheville and Lancaster a year after missing all of 2017 to back issues. Fully healthy now, the big, 6'4" lefty should move quickly through the minors and settle in as an 8th inning type soon. 23 year old Robert Tyler is an interesting pitcher simply because of his velocity. His upper 90's fastball got him drafted in the competitive balance round (38th overall) out of Georgia in 2016, though he hasn't quite translated that velocity to results yet. After missing 2017 with shoulder issues, he posted a 5.10 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 57/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.2 innings at Asheville and Lancaster, giving up more hits and hard contact than you'd expect because hitters could get ahead in the count and sit on the fastball, or because he would leave it over the plate. His changeup is good and gives hitters a second look, but he won't break through until he learns to hit his spots. Lastly, 22 year old Tommy Doyle, who I played against when I was 11-12 in Little League in Virginia (he struck me out in my only plate appearance against him), posted a 2.31 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings in Asheville, using a mid 90's fastball and a good slider from a 6'6" frame to miss bats. He dominated younger competition in 2018, so how he handles the higher levels and more age-appropriate competition in 2019 will be interesting. He also has set-up man possibilities but more likely profiles as a middle reliever.
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