Reviewing the 2025 Washington Nationals Trade Deadline

Traded: Michael Soroka (CHC), Kyle Finnegan (DET), Amed Rosario (NYY), Alex Call (LAD), Luis Garcia (LAA), Andrew Chafin (LAA)

Received: Christian Franklin (CHC), Ronny Cruz (CHC), Josh Randall (DET), R.J. Sales (DET), Clayton Beeter (NYY), Browm Martinez (NYY), Sean Paul Liñan (LAD), Eriq Swan (LAD), Jake Eder (LAA), Sam Brown (LAA)

Yet again, it was a fire sale for the Nationals at the deadline. While no superstars were dealt like in years past, they still shipped off six major league assets in exchange for ten mid and low-caliber prospects. On day one, none project to be a James Wood, a CJ Abrams, or a MacKenzie Gore, but the law of averages means that in a group of ten, some will certainly over perform and there could be a few legitimate pieces here that are contributors on the next contending Nationals team. Let's dig in, trade by trade.

Trade 1 (7/26)
Yankees receive:
    - 3B Amed Rosario (age 29): 5 HR, .270/.310/.426, 1 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Clayton Beeter (age 26): 14.79 ERA, 12.92 FIP, 2.45 WHIP, 1/4 K/BB in 3.2 IP
    - CF Browm Martinez (age 18): 3 HR, .404/.507/.632, 13 SB, 187 wRC+ in DSL
In a trade deadline where the vast majority of activity occurred within the last 24-48 hours before the deadline, this trade feels like ancient history. Mike Rizzo had many shortcomings, but finding diamonds in the free agent rough was not one of them. Amed Rosario signed with the team for just $2 million and put up a very respectable season in Washington, seeing frequent starts at second and third base while providing a league average bat. The Yankees needed another infield bat to help an offense that suddenly went quiet, and Rosario's keen ability to hit lefties (.299/.333/.483 pre-trade) landed the Nationals a decent return. Clayton Beeter was drafted by Dodgers 66th overall back in 2020 out of Texas Tech, then went to the Yankees for Joey Gallo in 2022. He put up excellent numbers in the upper minors 2023 and 2024, but injuries slowed his ascent and he never quite caught on in the majors with just five relief appearances over two seasons. Now 26 years old, he has primarily pitched at AAA this season to good, but not great results. Primarily a starting pitcher for most of his minor league career, a high walk rate has finally forced him to the bullpen where he projects to stay long term. The stuff is pretty impressive and has missed a ton of bats in the upper minors and should play in the majors so long as he can stay ahead in counts. While the Nationals sent him to AAA Rochester after the trade, I would expect him to be on the short list to earn some innings in Washington in the near future and I could see him sticking around as a solid mid-leverage reliever. The command will likely never come together enough for a high leverage role but I feel it more likely than not that he makes himself a regular in the Nationals bullpen in some capacity in the near future. Browm Martinez, meanwhile, is the prototypical "rookie ball lottery ticket." Just 18 years old, he signed with the Yankees for $130,000 out of the Dominican Republic last year and held his own as a 17 year old in the Dominican Summer League in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025 as many kids do, he has been one of the best hitters on the island by hitting .404 with three home runs and just eight strikeouts in eighteen games. It's a tiny sample in a league where stats don't mean terribly much in the first place, but you really can't perform any better than he did and that's certainly not a bad thing. Listed at an undersized 5'10", 160 pounds, he'll look to bulk up in the Nationals' system as any kid his age would (remember he's the age of a graduating high school senior). Still, he has made a ton of contact and even hit for some power already, pointing to perhaps more offensive upside than his size would indicate. A centerfielder by trade, he has shown well out there and could stick. Martinez is many years away and a lottery ticket in its truest sense, so Nationals fans will likely have forgotten all about Amed Rosario's 47 games by the time he reaches the majors in the late 2020's.

Trade 2
Angels receive:
    - LHP Andrew Chafin (age 35): 2.70 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.60 WHIP, 18/12 K/BB in 20 IP
    - RHP Luis Garcia (age 38): 4.10 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, 31/18 K/BB in 37.1 IP   
Nationals receive:
    - LHP Jake Eder (age 26): 4.91 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 15/9 K/BB in 18.1 IP
    - 1B Sam Brown (age 23): 5 HR, .244/.350/.358, 2 SB, 117 wRC+ at AA
This trade briefly grabbed headlines because it involved three major leaguers, but ultimately it's likely to be a nothing-burger. The Angels acquired two low leverage, late career relievers in exchange for one younger low leverage, early career reliever and organizational depth at first base, a position that doesn't really require organizational depth. Given that Andrew Chafin joined the Nationals in May and Luis Garcia in July, getting anything in return for the 35 and 38 year olds, respectively, is a win. They'll join the Angels to add some depth and keep the team competitive going forward. As a fun fact that I just learned today, the Nationals previously acquired Garcia in 2009 – for Ronnie Belliard! The primary return for the Nationals here is lefty Jake Eder, a 26 year old reliever who was actually born on the exact same day as Clayton Beeter – 10/9/1998. Also drafted in 2020, he was taken by his hometown Marlins in the fourth round out of Vanderbilt and immediately put up a huge 2021 at AA Pensacola, establishing himself as a legitimate prospect. However, Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 and he was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger in 2023, then was sent on to the Angels for cash before the 2025 season, posting ERA's above 6.00 in the minors in each of the past three seasons. He has been developed through and through as a starting pitcher, never making a relief appearance in the minors, but has served as a long reliever in his brief major league time. He has held better command than Beeter, but the stuff is a touch lighter and he likely doesn't have enough weapons to work through a major league lineup multiple times. While he probably is what he is at this point, he could stick around for a few seasons in a long relief role and will give the Nationals some bullpen depth going forward. Meanwhile, Sam Brown is likely organizational depth more than anything else. A twelfth round pick out of Washington State in 2023, the Angels sent him straight to AA Rocket City where he struggled to hit for impact in 2024. Repeating the level in 2025, he has been incrementally better with an on-base-driven offensive profile. Brown is not a thumper with just nine career home runs and a .325 slugging percentage in 218 games, and likely never will be with high ground ball rates. He does, however, have a very professional approach at the plate that limits strikeouts and leads to a ton of walks. Given his limited defensive profile, it's unlikely he ever breaks through to a major league role without finding more impact in the bat. If the right combination of injuries happens in front of him and he's able to continue getting on base at a high clip, there is a chance he earns a cup of coffee in the majors. He's a disciplined enough hitter to handle major league pitching pretty confidently, with the main limitation being that not much may happen once the ball does come off his bat.

Trade 3
Tigers receive:
    - RHP Kyle Finnegan (age 33): 4.38 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 32/14 K/BB in 39 IP
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Josh Randall (age 22): 3.92 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 70/15 K/BB in 80.1 IP at A-/A+
    - RHP R.J. Sales (age 22): 2.71 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 63/17 K/BB in 66.1 IP at Low A
From a fan perspective, this is probably the Nationals' biggest trade of the deadline. Kyle Finnegan was a veritable Mike Rizzo masterclass, having never reached the majors after seven seasons in the A's' minor league system and signing with the Nationals as a minor league free agent in 2020. It was a bit unusual that he signed a major league contract with the team, but it worked out in spades as he went on to save 108 games in five and a half seasons, the second most in Washington Nationals history behind Chad Cordero. He'll join the Tigers for the stretch run as a high leverage reliever that could be on the "last pitch of the World Series" watch list. In return, the Nationals received a pair of low minors pitchability arms from the Tigers' 2024 draft class. Josh Randall was a third round pick out of the University of San Diego last year and has spent most of 2025 at Low A Lakeland, where he controlled the strike zone well but was more hittable than you'd hope for a college arm in Low A. He made one successful start at High A West Michigan before the trade and will report to High A Wilmington to start. Interestingly, Randall was more of a power arm early in his college career and has gradually shifted to becoming a command and control type. The fastball still comes in hard, touching 98 at peak, but its run and sink hasn't missed a ton of bats and also hasn't generated as many ground balls as hoped. He adds a solid slider and was very effective in Low A, but he'll need to miss more barrels going forward to stick in the rotation. There's a shot he does so and becomes a back-end starter, though the likelier outcome is that of a multi inning reliever whose stuff takes a step forward in short stints while maintaining above average command from a sidearm slot. R.J. Sales, the Tigers' tenth round pick in the same draft out of UNC Wilmington, has had a similar start to his career. He's pitched exclusively at Low A Lakeland, where he has been excellent over sixteen appearances (fifteen starts) albeit often against younger competition. He'll start off at Low A Fredericksburg, but I expect the Nationals to promote him to Wilmington before the end of the season. Sales has somewhat lighter stuff but has shown above average command to dice up Low A hitters. Unlike Randall, a sidearmer, Sales comes straight over the top and "looks" more like a starter. He has been up to 96 and has a similar projection as a back-end starter/long reliever. Between the two, expect one to exceed expectations and one to fall short, so hopefully we'll get one back-end starter out of this pair. If either Randall or Sales can stick around and give the Nationals a few full seasons in the back of the rotation, even if the other never reaches the majors, that's a successful trade for half a season of Kyle Finnegan.

Trade 4
Cubs receive:
    - RHP Michael Soroka (age 27): 4.87 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 87/24 K/BB in 81.1 IP
Nationals receive:
    - OF Christian Franklin (age 25): 8 HR, .265/.393/.427, 11 SB, 117 wRC+ at AAA
    - SS Ronny Cruz (age 18): 2 HR, .270/.314/.431, 10 SB, 91 wRC+ in ACL
While Kyle Finnegan has the most history in Washington, Michael Soroka was probably the biggest name traded from the Nationals from a production standpoint. Long ago a top prospect for the Braves, injuries derailed his career for a few seasons from 2020-2023 before he made a small comeback with the White Sox and eventually re-established himself as a legitimate major league arm this season in Washington. Just on a one year deal, he'll head to Chicago and fill whatever role the Cubs need from him, whether that's in the back of the rotation or in a hybrid relief role. Coming back to Washington is probably the best prospect package they got from any trade. Christian Franklin was initially a top prospect for the 2021 draft, but fell to the Cubs in the fourth round after an inconsistent junior season at Arkansas. Throughout his slow climb through the minors, he has shown extremely strong plate discipline leading to very high on-base percentages and reasonable strikeout rates. Long lauded for his raw power despite a modest 5'9" frame, he hasn't been able to consistently elevate the ball and has hit just 26 home runs in 307 minor league games. Set to turn 26 in the offseason, he may not still have the lofty upside he once possessed, but the raw traits are certainly there. He crushes left handed pitching and certainly has the batting eye to handle major league pitching in general, and if the Nationals can find a way to get him elevating the ball better (which they do not have a successful history of doing), he has a chance to be a real weapon at the plate. More likely, he profiles as a platoon outfielder who can take on a significant role and inject some juice into the Nationals' lineup against left handed starting pitchers while holding his own against righties on the days he gets those starts. While Franklin is just about ready, Ronny Cruz is much farther off. He signed with the Cubs as a relatively unheralded third round pick last year out of Miami Christian High School in Florida, then held his own in a 48 game stint in the Arizona Complex League this year as an 18 year old. There is massive upside here, albeit a long ways off. Cruz has huge raw power, blasting a baseball 108 MPH off the bat as a 17 year old at the 2024 MLB Draft Combine. While that didn't translate to home run power this year, with just two long balls in those 48 games, he did put up ten doubles and six triples making loud noises off his bat. He's understandably raw as a hitter with an unrefined approach at the plate and a lack of barrel accuracy, so the Nationals will let him take it slowly and he may spend all of 2026 at Low A Fredericksburg. Given that he was extremely young for a high school senior when he was drafted, he'll have plenty of time. Defensively, Cruz could end up at any number of positions and has a lot of physical and skill development ahead of him to determine where that may be.

Trade 5
Dodgers receive:
    - OF Alex Call (age 30): 3 HR, .274/.371/.386, 1 SB, 117 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR
Nationals receive:
    - RHP Sean Paul Liñan (age 20): 2.78 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 101/31 K/BB in 74.1 IP at A-/A+/AAA
    - RHP Eriq Swan (age 23): 4.43 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 77/46 K/BB in 69 IP at High A
This one might be the most interesting trade the Nationals made. Alex Call will be 31 by the time this season ends, but he still has four years of team control remaining so he'll hit free agency for the first time at age 35 if the Dodgers tender him each year. I wouldn't think the Nationals were necessarily looking to move him, but ultimately they received an offer they couldn't refuse. Call isn't the flashiest player, but he has performed better and better against left handed pitching throughout his short career to the point where he'll fill an important role even on an always-deep Dodgers roster. Meanwhile, his outfield defense will keep him earning regular playing time to go along with being a .300+ hitter against lefties. It's a nice get for Los Angeles if he can keep from regressing. Sean Paul Liñan signed for just $17,500 out of Colombia in 2022, but gradually elevated himself into one of the top young pitchers in the Dodgers' low minors. From a crouched delivery with long arm action and nice extension, he slings the ball to the plate with a visually appealing delivery and plenty of deception. The fastball only sits low 90's but gets on hitters quick from that low slot, but his dastardly changeup steals the show with late action. If he wants to start, he'll need to find a more reliable breaking ball than his short slider, but to this point he has missed bats in bunches in the low minors. The command is still coming along, as is to be expected with a 20 year old pitcher, and will be another key in his development. If the two come together with his present stuff, he could be a mid rotation starter, with a more median outcome being a fastball/changeup reliever. It's certainly a profile that would play well in that latter role but the Nationals like his arm strength, changeup, and delivery at a very young age. He probably won't be up until 2027 unless the Nationals immediately shift him to the bullpen, which I doubt would happen. Lastly, Eriq Swan was a fourth round pick out of Middle Tennessee State in 2023, but injuries limited him to just 28.1 innings in 2024. Healthy in 2025, he has pitched the entire season at High A Great Lakes where he was recently joined by Liñan, running nice strikeout rates but walking too many hitters. He's a fireballer, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short stints. The Dodgers have really helped him bring along a nice slider as well, coming in with power and sweep to keep hitters off balance. There's a changeup too for a change of pace off his power fastball/slider combo. While he doesn't throw with much effort, he has really struggled with command and was running an ugly 15.4% walk rate at the time of the trade, leading to serious relief questions. Barring some magic from Washington's pitching development, he's likely a reliever in the majors where he can sit close to 100 with his fastball and pull the string on the slider. He might move quicker in that role and look the part of a Josh Staumont.

2020 Draft Review: Miami Marlins

1-3: RHP Max Meyer, Minnesota
2-40: LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS (OK)
CBB-61: RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State
3-75: RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina
4-104: LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt
5-134: RHP Kyle Hurt, Southern California

The Marlins like to scare us by waiting until the last second to sign their draftees, and it looks like that's happening again this year with only two out of six having officially put pen to paper. After picking up five straight bats to start the 2019 draft, they flipped the script this year and spent all six picks on pitchers. The selection of Max Meyer at third overall was a bit of a surprise after they had been linked heavily to Asa Lacy throughout the spring, and it's even more surprising a month later now that they've both received roughly the same signing bonus. Even though five out of six picks were from the college ranks, this was clearly an upside-oriented draft, as only Meyer can really be considered a "sure thing." As far as third overall picks go, Meyer is still more of an upside pick because you're not going to pick anybody considered high risk that early anyways. I tentatively like the class, even if I would have picked Lacy over Meyer myself, but given its boom/bust nature, we'll really just have to wait and see.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-3: RHP Max Meyer, Minnesota (my rank: 9)
When the Orioles unexpectedly took Heston Kjerstad second overall, the Marlins ended up with a dream scenario: Vanderbilt's Austin Martin, the best all-around player in the class, or any pitcher they wanted. They chose option B, but instead of Texas A&M's Asa Lacy, who is widely considered the best pitcher in the class and who had been tied to them all spring, they chose Max Meyer, the man with the best two pitch combination not just in this draft, but in years. I ranked him ninth behind Louisville's Reid Detmers, but honestly that's a bit of a regret and I'd flip them if I could. Anyways, Max Meyer is a skinny 6' righty out of the Twin Cities area who stayed home for college, and he's put up some pretty exciting numbers in his Minnesota career: 10-7, 2.07 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 187/41 K/BB in 148 IP. He put an exclamation point on his career when he tossed 17 innings and allowed just one earned run against two strong lineups in UNC and Utah, striking out 29 batters in the process. He's done all this on the strength of a three pitch mix headlined by two of the best pitches in the entire draft. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has hit triple digits, and despite his smaller stature, he easily holds that velocity deep into his starts. His slider is perhaps the best pitch in the entire draft, a disgusting breaking ball that can reaches low 90's (!!!) fairly often without sacrificing movement, still coming in with great depth despite its top of the scale velocity. Not just a two pitch guy, he also throws a very solid changeup that solidifies his future as a starting pitcher, and everything plays up further because he can actually command it well. Really, the only downside in his game is size, but that hasn't proven to be an issue at all yet. He's extremely athletic and extremely competitive, which has enabled him to repeat his delivery consistently and hold his stuff deep into games, but he also has just 15 college starts under his belt. Don't get me wrong, I see him as a starting pitcher for sure, but the microscope is very strong at the third overall pick and the Marlins have to be certain he'll hold up in the rotation to justify this pick. I think if Meyer were three or four inches taller with the exact same profile otherwise, he would have been in the conversation with Spencer Torkelson for first overall, and the upside here is clearly an ace. Really, the only thing separating him from Jacob deGrom is height and a curveball. Meyer signed for $6.7 million, which was about $520,000 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.

2-40: LHP Dax Fulton, Mustang HS, OK (my rank: 41)
First off, doesn't "Dax Fulton from Mustang, Oklahoma" just sound like he has to be good at baseball? Or at least a competitor at the Houston Rodeo? Anyways, Fulton was clearly the best high school lefty in the country last summer, a title he retains even after after he blew out his elbow in the fall and went down with Tommy John surgery. Fulton is a towering 6'6" lefty who grew up just outside of Oklahoma City, bringing a low 90's fastball that looks like it's coming straight down on hitters. His curveball is easily top two in the high school class, perhaps just a hair behind Nick Bitsko's but not clearly, coming in with both tremendous depth and great two-plane movement. He can also manipulate it into a slider-like offering with more horizontal movement, and he should only get better in that regard as he develops. For now, his changeup is fairly ordinary and requires some projection, but he does show feel for it. The first step for Fulton will be getting healthy, but from there, he has the potential to develop into a real ace. There's plenty of room to project onto his frame and envision more velocity, which he'll need, and his strike throwing is decent but he could definitely use more time to smooth out his delivery and get more consistent with his arm slot. The Marlins have a project on their hands for sure, but between the excellent curveball, the present all-around ability outside of that, the youth, and the projection, there is a ton of upside. Slot value is $1.86 million and he hasn't signed yet, but I would imagine it will require north of $2 million to sign away from an Oklahoma commitment. With weekend starters Cade Cavalli, Dane Acker, and Levi Prater all getting drafted by the Nationals, Athletics, and Cardinals, respectively, he has a chance to jump straight into the weekend rotation as soon as he's healthy, so the Marlins better pay up. Pre-draft profile here.

CBB-61: RHP Kyle Nicolas, Ball State (my rank: 56)
Here's another big upside play. Nicolas formed one of the better high school batteries around in 2017, when he was throwing to future Tigers second rounder Dillon Dingler at Jackson High School just outside Canton, Ohio, then the two went separate ways as Dingler headed to Ohio State and Nicolas to Ball State. He flashed great stuff over his first two seasons in Muncie, but his inconsistent command held him back with a 5.30 ERA and 91 walks in 108.2 innings in that time frame. In 2020, though, he came out of the gate looking much better in that regard, putting up a 2.74 ERA and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings, including a 17 strikeout, one hit performance against Sacred Heart in his final start. Nicolas is a 6'4" right hander with a big mid 90's fastball that has hit triple digits in the past, adding in a full set of secondaries that are inconsistent but improving. His slider is his best offspeed pitch, getting into the upper 80's at times and flashing good depth as well, while his curveball can be an above average pitch at times and his changeup lags behind for the most part. Formerly a well below average strike thrower, he's smoothed out his delivery and was showing closer to average command in 2020, something that will be key if he wants to remain a starting pitcher. The Marlins are buying the arm strength and the trajectory here, hoping that he continues the progress he's made and develops into a true impact starter. I think he has a very good shot at that, which is great value in the second competitive balance round, but if he stagnates with his secondaries or his command, he could wind up in the bullpen. There, I think his fastball/slider combination could play up well, but you'd rather have him as a starter regardless. Nicolas signed for $1.13 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

3-75: RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina (my rank: 89)
In a way, Zach McCambley is a little bit like Max Meyer-lite in that his arsenal is highlighted by a wicked fastball/breaking ball combination. The northeastern Pennsylvania native (NEPA, as I'm told it's pronounced) has been a bit up and down during his career at Coastal Carolina, but 2020 was certainly an up: 3-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 25 innings. He's a 6'1" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball that he has run up to 97, but his best pitch is his curveball. It's a true plus pitch, perhaps plus-plus when he locates it, showing huge two plane break in addition to more velocity than most curveballs get. He has a changeup, but doesn't use it much and he'll need to work on it. He's done a better job of throwing strikes this spring as well as last summer in the Cape Cod League, where he had a 1.74 ERA and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings, but his command is still average at best and still below average more often than not. There are significant reliever questions with McCambley given his lack of a third pitch in addition to the inconsistent command, but if he can continue trending in the right direction like he has been, he absolutely has a shot to stick in the rotation. If not, the fastball and curveball should play very well out of the bullpen and I could easily envision him as a late inning reliever at the major league level. Slot vlaue is $831,100 and he has not signed yet, and while I have no insider information, I could see him taking a slight discount. Pre-draft profile here.

4-104: LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt (my rank: 85)
Jake Eder grew up in Ocean Ridge, Palm Beach County, and was a star pitcher at Calvary Christian High School in Fort Lauderdale. His projectable frame and big stuff earned him serious draft buzz in 2017 and his name was mentioned regularly in the second round range, but he headed north to Vanderbilt instead and is a very similar prospect three years later. He's been solid over the last two seasons for the Commodores, putting up a 3.19 ERA and a 68/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings, highlighted by earning the save to close out Vanderbilt's 2019 College World Series win. The 6'4" lefty flashes first round stuff at times, running his fastball as high as 97 at times and showing a plus curveball with great depth and an average changeup. However, he might look like that one start, then the next week his fastball will sit around 90 and his breaking ball will back up on him. With fringe-average command, he can't really afford too many of those off days and he'll have to get much more consistent. He has a great pitcher's body with room to add more good weight, and he has a very natural left arm that seems like it was made for pitching. The Marlins are excited to work with him and see if they can get the most out of him, though the fact that Vanderbilt of all places hasn't gotten him more consistent to this point worries me slightly. There's plenty of starter upside and just as much reliever risk here, with the Marlins obviously buying into the former. Slot value is $560,000 but I suspect he'll need a little more to sign. Pre-draft profile here.

5-134: RHP Kyle Hurt, Southern California (my rank: 156)
Like Eder, Kyle Hurt was a well-known prospect for the 2017 draft growing up in the San Diego suburbs, but he ended up at USC instead and like Eder, he's more or less the same prospect he was three years ago. Because he was a year older than most members of his high school graduating class, he was draft-eligible as a sophomore in 2019, but an up and down first two seasons for the Trojans (7-12, 5.22 ERA, 145/99 K/BB in 155.2 IP) left him undrafted. With a 3.71 ERA and a 25/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings this year, including a strong start against TCU to close it out, the Marlins were comfortable enough with the 6'3" righty's progression to pop him in the third round. Hurt's calling card has long been his power low to mid 90's fastball, but he also adds an above average changeup with nice fading action that routinely misses bats. He mainly relies on those two pitches for his outs, but he also adds in a hard slider and loopy curveball that flash above average at times but too often flatten out. His command is similarly inconsistent, and it has kept him from fully realizing his potential at USC. Everyone agrees that he has the arm strength and build to start, but I have heard numerous concerns over his work ethic; I've never met the guy and for that reason I don't want to dwell on it, but the general feel in the industry is that he's cruised this far on natural talent alone and that he might be in for a big time reality check in pro ball. The Marlins are buying the arm strength and natural talent, and they believe they can whip him into shape and help him pull it all together to become a mid rotation starter. On the down side, even though he's a junior, he turned 22 back in May and is really the age of a college senior. Slot value is $418,200 and I'm not sure how much he'll require to sign.

Undrafted: SS Brett Norwood, Virginia Commonwealth (unranked)
I actually played against Norwood in the 2015 Virginia high school state championship game, when he played for Chantilly High School in Northern Virginia (we won that year, but Chantilly came back and won it all in 2016). He started his career at South Florida State CC in Highlands County, then transferred back to his home state for his junior and senior years. Since transferring to VCU, he's been a steady .303/.425/.440 hitter with seven home runs, 30 stolen bases, and an even 36/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Norwood has no standout tool, but he's a great all-around hitter who gets on base consistently, makes plenty of contact, runs well, and produces some sneaky power from a smaller 5'11" frame. It's a utility infield projection, and as long as he hits for enough impact in pro ball (which I think he will), he could work his way up relatively quickly. That would be best, because he'll already be 23 in August.

Undrafted: LHP Antonio Velez, Florida State (unranked)
Velez gives the Marlins a semi-hometown player, having grown up in Brandon, Florida, attended Hillsborough CC in nearby Tampa, and transferred to Florida State for the 2019 season. The 6'1" lefty was solid as a redshirt junior (4.17 ERA, 50/11 K/BB in 45.1 IP) and was off to a hot start in 2020, putting up a 0.52 ERA and a 21/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings against some pretty strong lineups, including six shutout innings in a win over an undefeated Florida team. In the rotation, his fastball sits in the upper 80's and scrapes the low 90's, but I see him moving to the bullpen in pro ball, where he should be more comfortably in the low 90's. He gets some nice run on the ball and his quick delivery makes the ball pop out of his hand, but it doesn't look quite repeatable enough to start in pro ball. There is a nice slider that flashes above average as well, plus a changeup, and he's been an above average strike thrower for the Seminoles. Having already turned 23 in March, he's one of the older players to sign a pro contract this year, but he could move relatively quickly in a relief role.

2020 Draft Profile: Jake Eder

LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 27/9 K/BB in 20 IP.

Jake Eder has been a well-known name for a while now, one that scouts have been waiting to see put it together for a while now. He was considered a second round talent out of high school in South Florida back in 2017 and ranked 59th in my draft rankings that year, and not much has changed about his profile since. After an up and down freshman season, he put together a 2.97 ERA and a 41/16 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2019, then found similar success in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer (2.29 ERA, 24/6 K/BB). He was a full time starter in 2020, but the results were just decent; he allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his four starts and finished with a 3.60 ERA and a 27/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 20 innings.

Eder is a 6'4" lefty with velocity and a good breaking ball – already, that's enough to get scouts interested. However, literally everything is inconsistent. At his best, his fastball can scrape the upper 90's while sitting in the mid 90's, though there are days where he dips below 90 and tops out around 92. The curveball looks like a legitimate plus pitch at times, combining power, depth, and angle into a devastating strikeout pitch at its best. However, it tends to flatten out at times and can be especially vulnerable to hard contact when he hangs it. His changeup is also behind that of most draftable college starters, but that's more due to a lack of usage than a lack of feel.

His command is similarly inconsistent to his fastball and curveball. At his best, he can look average in that regard and that helped him have success on the Cape, but there are days where he loses the zone and hangs pitches up to get crushed. He sometimes struggles to keep his long arms in check and repeat his delivery. The tools for success are absolutely there, because at his best, he looks like a first round arm with mid 90's velocity, a plus curve, and decent command from the left side. But I am a bit concerned by the fact that Vanderbilt, which is among the best in the country at developing pitchers, hasn't been able to clean him up.

College lefties tend to do well on draft day, especially when they can hit 97 and drop in a wicked curve. Though Vanderbilt hasn't quite been able to help him pull everything together on a consistent basis, pro coaching could unlock that and get first round value outside of the first round. If he does find a way to perform at his peak more often than not, as well as develop a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. If not, the fastball/curveball combination will fit well in the bullpen. He probably comes off the board somewhere in the second to third round range.

2020 start vs Southern California (home plate view)
2020 start vs Illinois-Chicago (CF view)

Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018

The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.

1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.

2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.

3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.

4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.

5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.

6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.

7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.

8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.

9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.

10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.

Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.

Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)

2017 Draft Review: New York Mets

First 5 rounds: David Peterson (1-20), Mark Vientos (2-59), Quinn Brodey (3-97), Tony Dibrell (4-127), Matt Winaker (5-157)
Also notable: Trey Cobb (8-247), Carl Stajduhar (18-547), C.J. Van Eyk (19-577), Jake Eder (34-1027)

The Mets seemed to be a fan of the west coast in this year's draft, taking a pitcher out of Oregon with their first pick, a pair of Stanford stars in the third and fifth rounds, and one each from Cal State Northridge (7th round), Long Beach State (25th round), Azusa Pacific (27th round), and a California high school (39th round). Interestingly, they also took six high school pitchers from the state of Florid, seemingly leaning heavily on certain area scouts. They took eight straight college players from rounds three through ten, but other than that, they balanced the different age levels fairly evenly.

1-20: LHP David Peterson (my rank: 19)
Peterson is fairly similar to the Mets' compensation pick last year, UConn lefty Anthony Kay. While Peterson is a little, no, a lot bigger (seven inches, 70 pounds), both are pitchability college lefties, and Peterson has a good chance to turn into a mid-rotation starter. The 6'6'" Oregon ace had a big breakout year after Ducks pitching coach Jason Dietrich changed his mechanics, going 11-4 with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, striking out 140 and walking just 15 in 100.1 innings. While his diverse arsenal was enough to miss a plethora of bats in the Pac-12, it will play closer to average in pro ball, but he commands and mixes it well enough to have a high floor as a safe bet to start in the majors. He won't be the next Noah Syndergaard, but Peterson could settle nicely into a mid-rotation role sooner rather than later. He has not signed yet.

2-59: 3B Mark Vientos (my rank: 40)
Vientos was a bit enigmatic throughout the season, flashing big potential but sometimes struggling to show it consistently on the field. That makes sense, because he doesn't turn 18 until December and he was the youngest player selected in the early rounds, a full year younger than the typical high school senior. Vientos played shortstop at American Heritage High School north of Miami, but he'll be a third baseman going forward, where his below average speed will hinder him less. When he's going right, showing some power potential with a powerful swing, though at times I think there is too much yanking and that could hurt his ability to hit for average. He has a high ceiling as a beta version of Nolan Arenado, but he also has a very low floor. Vientos signed for $1.5 million, which is $405,300 over slot.

3-97: OF Quinn Brodey (unranked)
The Mets went for a safe pick in the third round, nabbing Stanford outfielder Quinn Brodey. Brodey steadily improved during his time in Palo Alto, finishing with with a solid junior year where he slashed .314/.371/.556 with 11 home runs and a low-ish strikeout rate of 12.3%. He profiles best as a fourth outfielder in pro ball, but he could end up a tweener if his bat doesn't translate up in pro ball. Brodey signed for $500,000, which is $53,200 below slot.

4-127: RHP Tony Dibrell (my rank: 97)
I like Dibrell, a 6'3" righty who had a breakout year for Kennesaw State this year. Over 14 starts, he went 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, striking out 103 in 95.2 innings. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, his breaking ball has solid drop, and his changeup is fairly advanced, so he could develop into a mid-rotation starter. However, his command starts to wobble when he struggles to repeat his arm slot, but if he can't cut it as a starter, I think his stuff can play up in the bullpen. Dibrell signed for $380,000, which is $33,100 below slot.

34-1027: LHP Jake Eder (my rank: 59)
Eder is unlikely to sign here in the 34th round and will instead attend Vanderbilt, where he could grow into a first round pick. The 6'4" lefty already has a low 90's fastball despite extremely inconsistent mechanics, and depending on the day you see him, his offspeed pitches could all look plus, or they could be soft and hittable. Eder has all the tools to be a top of the rotation starter, but he is also extremely high risk and his stock could plunge with struggles at Vanderbilt.

Others: 5th rounder Matt Winaker joined Brodey in the Stanford lineup, having a breakout 2017 by slashing .308/.432/.514 with eight home runs and a high 15.7% walk rate. Like Brodey, Winaker profiles best as a fourth outfielder, showing average tools but a good feel for the strike zone. 8th rounder Trey Cobb got lots of exposure at the College World Series in 2016, and he finishes up a four year career at Oklahoma State 10-10 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He just turned 23 in June, so he is a little behind on the age clock, but he could be a fast mover as a right handed sinker/slider reliever. 18th rounder Carl Stajduhar put up big offensive numbers in the Coors Field-type environment at New Mexico, slashing .350/.453/.650 with 17 home runs as a junior. He'll be limited to first base defensively, but he has a ton of power. 19th rounder C.J. Van Eyk probably won't sign, and will likely attend Florida State instead. The Tampa-area high schooler has top 50 stuff, showing a low 90's fastball and a big breaking curveball, but as he reaches back for more velocity, he often struggles with command. The bigger red flag for Van Eyk is his injury history, as he missed significant time this spring with forearm trouble, which can often be a precursor to Tommy John.

2017 Draft Demographics: Florida Prep Talent

First Tier: Mark Vientos, Jeter Downs, M.J. Melendez
Second Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Jake Eder
Third Tier: Joe Perez, James Marinan, C.J. Van Eyk, Shane Drohan
Others: Hunter Ruth, Sam McMillan, Tommy Mace, Zach Jackson

If the SEC is the epitome of college baseball, then Florida is where you go for the best high school talent. Miami-area schools like American Heritage (Vientos), Westminster Christian (Melendez), and Archbishop McCarthy (Perez) dominate the high school scene year in and year out, and many of the game's top players were drafted out of high school in Florida. That includes Alex Rodriguez (Westminster Christian), Chipper Jones (Bolles), Manny Machado (Brito Miami), Jose Fernandez (Alonso), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade), Ian Desmond (Sarasota), Gio Gonzalez (Monsignor Pace), and Eric Hosmer (American Heritage), just to name a few.

Tier I (Vientos, Downs, Melendez)
Mark Vientos of Eric Hosmer's alma mater, American Heritage HS, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft. The youngest player to even be considered for my top 100 (he turns 18 in December), Vientos has a big bat from the right side and the ability to play a solid third base, earning Manny Machado-lite comparisons. He's been up and down with the bat this spring, but a team banking on his youth will compare this to what most players do during their junior seasons in high school, and he could come off the board in the first round or outside the top 50. Jeter Downs, meanwhile, is universally loved, and not just because he has the best baseball name in this entire draft class (sorry, D'Mond LaFond). Playing at Gio Gonzalez's former school, Pace HS, he has endeared himself to scouts with his scrappy style of play and improving bat. The 5'11" infielder could be similar to Dustin Pedroia, and he has pushed himself into late first round/supplemental round conversations with his strong spring. We went over M.J. Melendez of Westminster Christian, the school that produced Alex Rodriguez, at length in the catchers' discussion, but he's a power bat with swing and miss concerns that should be able to stay behind home plate with his strong defense.

Tier II (Seise, McConnell, Eder)
While Tier I is made up of players from south Florida, Tier II moves up north a bit. Chris Seise comes from the Orlando area, and he and Space Coast area star Brady McConnell are easy to compare to each other. While Seise has improved his stock significantly this spring, McConnell came in as a possible first rounder, though his up and down season has put him about on par with Seise. Seise has the more conventional swing, while McConnell is similar to Arizona first baseman J.J. Matijevic in that he contracts and unloads on the ball to generate power. This has led to swing and miss from McConnell, and I get a little nervous that he won't be able to adjust to pro ball because of it. Both are solid shortstops, and while neither is likely to be forced to second or third base, McConnell is an even stronger bet to stay on shortstop. Lastly, we go back back down to south Florida for Jake Eder. A 6'4" lefty committed to Vanderbilt, Eder's ceiling is as high as any on this list, but he comes with a lot of risk. He sits in the low 90's now, but he struggles to repeat his mechanics even from pitch to pitch and will need significant coaching.

Tier III (Perez, Marinan, Van Eyk, Drohan)
Joe Perez, of national powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy, only came to pitching recently and is understandably raw. Combine that with the fact that he's just three days older than his crosstown rival, Mark Vientos, and he gets a lot of benefits of the doubt. His fastball can already run into the mid to upper 90's, and his cutter/slider is coming alone nicely as well. He has a high ceiling as a #2 starter or closer, but he went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of the spring and carries a huge amount of risk. He also may be a tough sign, as he has a very strong commitment to Miami. James Marinan is a similar pitcher to Perez in that he lives on his fastball, which out of nowhere is suddenly in the mid 90's, and he has a classic pitcher's frame at 6'5". Also like Perez, he is committed to Miami, and his success will ride on his ability to develop his secondaries. C.J. Van Eyk, one of only two Tampa-area players on this list (the other being Tommy Mace in the "others" section), has the stuff and overall pitchability to get top 50 consideration, but his injury uncertainty drops him out of the top 100 for most. The 6'2" righty throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, controls it well enough, and has arguably the best curveball in the state. However, he was shut down halfway through the spring and has not returned, raising medical question marks. Lastly, Shane Drohan is the only pitcher who can challenge Van Eyk's curveball, but unlike Van Eyk, the lefty Drohan's velocity sits more in the upper 80's. With a similar 6'2" frame to Van Eyk, he should hope to add velocity, but overall his combination of floor and ceiling is pretty mediocre.