First 5 rounds: Quentin Holmes (2-64), Tyler Freeman (CBB-71), Johnathan Rodriguez (3-102), Ernie Clement (4-132), Austen Wade (5-162).
Also notable: Michael Rivera (6-192), Eli Morgan (8-252), James Karinchak (9-282), Asa Lacy (31-942)
The Indians lacked a first round pick this year, but they were still able to nab a potential first round talent in the second round. They continued their upside picks in the competitive balance round and third round, then went on a long run of safety picks. Because they had that extra competitive balance pick and they got a late-first round talent in the second round, this draft isn't as disappointing as it easily could have been for Indians fans.
2-64: CF Quentin Holmes (my rank: 36)
Assuming they can sign him, this is a great pick in the second round. Holmes is a high upside center fielder with true 80 grade speed, and his whole package of tools gives him Andrew McCutchen type upside. Holmes, out of McClancy HS in Queens, New York, has been lauded by scouts for his excellent makeup and work ethic, and he won't turn 18 until July, making him one of the younger players in the draft. Holmes swing needs some work, especially around the bat path, but he has quick hands and can already get some natural loft on the ball, so the building blocks are there. Combine that with his age and work ethic, and Holmes could be a five tool player in the major leagues.
CBB-71: SS Tyler Freeman (my rank: 114)
The Indians grabbed another high-upside, strong makeup player in the competitive balance round. Freeman is a high schooler from California, where he had an extremely strong spring despite largely average tools. He has a long, flat swing, similar to first rounder Evan White, which doesn't produce much power but can get him on base often. Scouts love his competitiveness and energy, and once his swing path is tweaked and his load is timed up better with his swing, he could grow into average power. He was supposedly going to be a tough sign away from TCU, but the Indians likely drafted him high enough to lure him away.
3-102: OF Johnathan Rodriguez (unranked)
A third straight high-upside pick, Rodriguez comes from Puerto Rico, where Baseball America ranked him the island's fifth best prospect. He's raw and toolsy, and will be a project like Holmes and Freeman. Rodriguez pushes his hands very far back during his load, which could help him wait back on breaking pitches but could give him difficulty catching up to fastballs. With his strong arm and power potential, he'll fit in well as a right fielder down the line.
4-132: 2B Ernie Clement (my rank: 117)
The Indians' fourth round pick has a very unique skillset. He has excellent bat to ball skills, striking out just 31 times (3.7% of his plate appearances) in his entire three year career at the University of Virginia. This year, he kicked it up yet another notch, striking out just seven times total (2.5%). Aside from his insane ability to put the bat on the ball, though, there's not much exciting about him. He has little to no power because of his small frame and his slap style of hitting, doesn't walk much (career high 4.6% in 2017), and will be an average second baseman. He did slash .353/.400/.395 in the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out in just 5.6% of his plate appearances. Clement has a high floor of a quadruple-A journeyman, but he likely will never be an MLB starter. I gave him a Jason Tyner offensive ceiling without the speed.
31-942: LHP Asa Lacy (my rank: 78)
There is essentially a 0% chance that Lacy signs as a 31st round pick, but let's look at this pick just in case a miracle happens. I'm the high guy on Lacy, a left handed pitcher out of a high school in central Texas. The 6'4" lefty has a solid combination of floor and ceiling, as he already possesses advanced command of a full arsenal from a projectable frame. His fastball rarely bumps higher than 91, but it's easy to see him pushing his velocity into the low or even low to mid 90's in time, and he has one of the better changeups in the class. Lacy's curveball needs work, but it shows promise. Ultimately, he could come out of Texas A&M in three years as a first round pick.
Others: 5th rounder Austen Wade had a breakout year for TCU this year, slashing .333/.448/.491 with five home runs, and 15 stolen bases over 60 games so far. He has always shown an extremely advanced approach at the plate, walking in 19.6% of his plate appearances for his career, though he has also struck out in 16%. Unfortunately, he has no carrying tools and is likely a fourth outfielder down the road. 6th rounder Mike Rivera gives the Indians a third straight player who projects as an MLB backup, as he stands just 5'10" and slashed just .241/.344/.346 at Florida this year, but he is an excellent defender and works with pitchers well. 8th rounder Eli Morgan had an excellent career as a starter for Gonzaga (21-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but he'll likely end up a reliever due to his below average fastball and curveball. His carrying pitch is easily his excellent changeup, and he had strong enough results on the Cape, where he was mostly a reliever (4.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 22/5 K/BB) to make it as a bullpen arm in the pros. 9th rounder James Karinchak had an excellent sophomore season for Bryant University (12-3, 2.00 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), albeit in a weak Northeastern Conference, but injuries slowed down his junior campaign this year (6-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP). When healthy, he projects as a future MLB starter, but the up-and-down junior year, combined with a funky delivery, makes many scouts project him as a reliever. He has difficulty repeating his arm slot when he's not at his best, but this is a very intriguing high-risk, high-upside college pick in the ninth round.
Showing posts with label Quentin Holmes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quentin Holmes. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
Thursday, June 8, 2017
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: Toolsy Prep Hitters
First Tier: Royce Lewis, Austin Beck, Jordon Adell
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
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