The Marlins' system is better than it was just a year ago, but it still has a long, long way to go. Even with the trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Kyle Barraclough, it's still fairly empty with no true impact prospects or headliners. Signing Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. were big steps in the right direction, but there is still just not much going on at all here. Even the team's top prospect heading into the season, Lewis Brinson, had a disastrous 2018 and slashed just .199/.240/.338 with eleven home runs in a season where he was supposed to challenge for the Rookie of the Year Award. The Marlins may (and should) trade J.T. Realmuto over the offseason and that will bring back a huge return, but for now, the system is just about empty. For now, the system is slightly more pitching heavy with more high-upside prospects overall than safe bets. One interesting note is that the Marlins aggressively pushed their three highest high school draft picks in 2018, Connor Scott, Osiris Johnson, and Will Banfield, all the way up to Class A Greensboro with mixed results.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers*, Short Season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*Class A Affiliate will move from Greensboro, NC to Clinton, IA in 2019
Toolsy Outfielders: Victor Victor Mesa, Monte Harrison, Connor Scott, Tristan Pompey, Thomas Jones, Brian Miller, and Austin Dean
Though the system is not deep, perhaps the Marlins' best thing the system has going for it is that there are quite a few outfielders with star potential, even if those high ceilings are coupled with high bust potential. 22 year old Cuban import Victor Victor Mesa leads the pack, having signed for a huge $5.25 million bonus in October. He has an excellent glove and will be very valuable in center field, so it will be on his bat to catch up. Currently, he is a solid contact hitter who can get on base, and while he probably won't develop much power with his 5'9" frame, he has a ceiling as a leadoff hitter if he hits enough. His floor is among the highest in the system, and since he hasn't actually had an at bat in the minor leagues yet, that's saying something about the Marlins' farm sytem. 23 year old Monte Harrison came over in the Christian Yelich trade, and his ceiling and floor are exceptionally far apart for a hitter so far into his career. After cracking 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases in A ball last year, Harrison hit 19 more and stole 28 more in 2018 while slashing .240/.316/.399 for AA Jacksonville. Power/speed combinations like Harrison's are hard to come by and extremely valuable, but Harrison comes with one big problem; he strikes out way too much, including 36.9% of the time in 2018. If he's getting fooled this badly by AA pitching, he'll only struggle more with MLB pitching, and serious approach adjustments are necessary for him to succeed at the highest level. If he makes those adjustments, then he could be a perennial 20-20 player in the majors. 19 year old Connor Scott is farther away, having just been drafted in the first round (13th overall) out of a Tampa high school in 2018. Scott slashed .218/.309/.296 with a home run and nine stolen bases in 50 games between the complex ball and an aggressive assignment to Class A Greensboro, but those numbers don't show off his skills. Despite an unorthodox swing, the long and lanky Scott shows speed and feel for the barrel, with his wiry 6'4" frame, power could come too, and when that's combined with his good outfield defense and good arm, he has the potential to be a five tool player. Risk is always high with high school draftees, but Scott's ceiling might be the highest in the system, above even Harrison. 21 year old Tristan Pompey, the younger brother of Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey, was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Kentucky this year. Despite concerns about his plate discipline and swing mechanics, Pompey slashed a very impressive .299/.408/.397 with three home runs and ten stolen bases over 52 games across three levels in his pro debut, reaching as high as High A Jupiter. Especially surprising was his plate discipline, as his 47/32 strikeout to walk ratio was very reasonable. We'll have to wait and see how that plate discipline holds up over a full season, but the early returns are good for Pompey and he could be a productive major league hitter sooner than expected. 20 year old Thomas Jones was very raw when he was drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of a South Carolina high school in 2016, and so far, the Marlins have not been able to bring his potential out of him. Playing all of 2018 at Greensboro, he slashed .222/.277/.343 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing some of that blazing speed that got him drafted but struggling to do much of anything with the bat. His plate discipline currently plagues him (140/25 K/BB) and there isn't much sock in the bat, so even at 20 years old, he's running out of time to prove he can handle pro pitching. The Marlins hope 2019, his age-21 season, will be the year where he finally starts to tap into what scouts saw back in 2016. Lastly, 23 year old Brian Miller and 25 year old Austin Dean don't quite fit into the "toolsy" category, but they'll get a writeup here anyways. Both are high-floor hitters without much projection left, with Miller showing no power but good plate discipline and speed and Dean showing a productive bat. Miller slashed .295/.338/.355 with 40 stolen bases between Jupiter and AA Jacksonville this year, showing fourth outfielder potential, while Dean slashed and eye-popping .345/.410/.511 with 12 home runs and a nice 56/39 strikeout to walk ratio between Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, showing platoon/pinch hitter potential.
The Infielders: 2B Isan Diaz, SS Jose Devers, SS Osiris Johnson, 3B Joe Dunand, 3B James Nelson, and C Will Banfield
While there is some depth when it comes to high ceiling outfield prospects, this system really lacks in potential impact infielders, and the Marlins are unlikely to get any stars out of this group. 22 year old Isan Diaz leads the pack after having been acquired from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade last year, and like Monte Harrison, a fellow piece in the Yelich trade, there is a large gap between what Diaz can do and what he is doing. He split 2018 between AA Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, slashing a respectable .245/.365/.418 at the former but only .204/.281/.358 at the latter. He generates tons of power from a big, whippy swing, but he has swing and miss issues that keep his production down. However, as a patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks, and that gives him an enviable power/patient combination. If he can cut down those strikeouts and make better contact on pitches in the zone, he could be the Marlins' next Dan Uggla, but if he can't make those adjustments, he might better resemble late-career Uggla. 18 year old Jose Devers, who came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, was one of the youngest players in the Class A South Atlantic League this year, and his player profile is basically opposite to Diaz's. While Diaz's swing gives him all or nothing, Devers is a contact hitter with a very advanced approach for his age, enabling him to slash .272/.313/.330 against much older competition this year. He's also a very good defender at shortstop, so the only hole in his game for now is power. The skinny six footer has none of it for now, and he likely will never develop much, so he'll have to continue to line enough balls to the gaps to stay relevant. Time is on his side as he will play all of 2019 at 19 years old, and the big thing for him will just be adding strength. While Devers may be set to turn 19, 18 year old Osiris Johnson just had his birthday and played all of 2018 at just 17 years old. Johnson was drafted in the second round (53rd overall) out of an Oakland area high school this year, and while he hit well in complex ball (.301/.333/.447), he struggled to catch up to advanced Class A pitching upon his extremely aggressive promotion to Greensboro (.188/.205/.294). Johnson is very toolsy and generates power from a big swing, but that big swing also misses a lot, and with little patience, Class A pitchers were able to easily find holes in his approach this year. Set to play the whole 2019 season at 18 years old, he could spend years working on that approach and still be a young prospect, so he just has to do it. There's bust potential here, but Johnson has some of the higher upside in this section. 23 year old Joe Dunand, out of NC State, hit moderately well at High A Jupiter this year (.263/.326/.391) but saw his bat stall at Jacksonville (.212/.276/.369). With 14 total home runs on the year, he shows good power and some feel for the strike zone, but overall I don't think it adds up to a starting profile. His defense is very good at third base, and I can see him being power hitting utility infielder in the future. 21 year old James Nelson was riding high off a big 2017 at Greensboro (7 HR, .309/.354/.456) when 2018 went about as poorly as possible at Jupiter (2 HR, .211/.262/.280). He missed time to injury and overall just couldn't get anything going with the bat, so he'll hope to turn it back around in 2019 with a clean bill of health and a broad set of tools. Lastly, 18 year old catcher Will Banfield was a competitive balance pick (69th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school this year, and he's an interesting case. While he is great behind the plate with an excellent arm, his bat has held him back and some scouts worry if he'll ever be able to catch up to high level pitching. There is power in that bat, but the hit tool just isn't there yet. Learning to recognize breaking balls and catch up to velocity could make Banfield a starting catcher, but failure to do so will keep him from seeing the big leagues.
Electric Arms: Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Guzman, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Colton Hock, Tommy Eveld, and Tyler Kolek
Fortunately, the system isn't completely devoid of pitching talent like it used to be, and the Marlins do have a couple of hard throwers who could develop into more, though none have taken the step from "maybe can-be" to "potential ace" just yet. 23 year old Sandy Alcantara, who came over from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade, is the most advanced, but he also has been extremely enigmatic. He can hit 100 with his fastball and his slider and changeup have gotten better over the years, but he just doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect and that hurts his long term projection. In 2018, the skinny 6'4" righty went 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 96/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 innings, mostly at AAA New Orleans, but he struck out just 18% of his opponents along the way. He was moderately successful with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in a brief major league cup of coffee, but his 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings was far from ideal. At this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen. 22 year old Jorge Guzman came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, and though he can hit 103 (!) with his fastball, his 2018 season was somewhat of a disappointment as he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 101/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at High A Jupiter. His slider is coming along as well, but right now the two pitches aren't enough to overcome his mediocre command. Like Alcantara, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he could have Aroldis Chapman-esque velocity and ditch his changeup. Still, it's always exciting to have someone with a fastball that sits right around 100 as a starter. 20 year old Edward Cabrera, like the two above him, has not put it together yet but is making progress. The skinny, 6'4" righty posted a 4.22 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 93/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.1 innings at Class A Greensboro this year, which again is disappointing when his fastball can hit 100 and 101. His slider works well too, but his command wobbles and like Alcantara and Guzman, there is a lot he needs to work on and he needs to start striking batters out. 20 year old Trevor Rogers' pro debut didn't go as well as hoped in 2018, as he posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings for Greensboro this year. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, which is slower than the guys above, and his secondary stuff is still coming along, though he stands at a tall 6'6". The Marlins knew he would be a project when they drafted him in the first round (13th overall) out of a New Mexico high school in 2017, and a year and a half later, he's still a project. One positive from his 2018 season was the strikeout to walk ratio, as a 26% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate aren't half bad and should provide hope for a better 2019. 22 year old Colton Hock has been a bit disappointing so far in his career, with his 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 77/21 strikeout to walk ratio being fairly uninspiring in 91 innings against slightly younger competition at Greensboro in 2018. The 6'4" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curve, both of which he controls well, but it doesn't quite come together in an exciting starter package and he probably needs to move to the bullpen, where he pitched with Stanford. 24 year old Tommy Eveld is purely a bullpen prospect, having posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 61/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings between High A and AA. He should be in the majors in 2019 and could make an impact quickly. Lastly, we have our old friend, 22 year old Tyler Kolek, who isn't really a prospect anymore except for the fact that he was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft with Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, and others still on the board. At the time, he threw over 100 miles per hour regularly and looked durable with a big, 6'5" frame, but injuries and poor command have ruined his pro career so far. Now, the fastball is down to the mid 90's, and without good secondaries or command, he's basically just organizational filler at this point. Too bad, really.
Polished Arms: Nick Neidert, Jordan Yamamoto, Braxton Garrett, Zac Gallen, Robert Dugger, Jeff Brigham, and Brady Puckett
Fortunately, the Marlins have enough polished arms in this section that they might be able to form a decent back of the rotation, and you could make the argument that this group of pitchers is better than the live arms discussed above. 21 year old Nick Neidert came over in the Dee Gordon trade and is the closest thing the Marlins have to a legitimate starting pitching prospect. In 26 starts at AA Jacksonville this year, the 6'1" righty went 12-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 154/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.2 innings, showing a good mix of stuff and command. His fastball and changeup generate weak contact, and while his lack of a good breaking ball limits his ceiling, he could be a #3 or #4 starter in Miami soon. 22 year old Jordan Yamamoto, who came over in the Christian Yelich trade, has flown under the radar a bit and I don't think he gets enough credit. In 13 starts between High A Jupiter, AA Jacksonville, and complex level rehab work, he went 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an 85/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 68.2 innings, showing good command of a deceptive fastball and a very good curveball. While he needs to prove he can stay healthy, hitters have not been able to figure him out, and he posted a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings with Jacksonville against his most advanced opponents. He looks like a back-end starter for now but don't underestimate him. 21 year old Braxton Garrett missed most of 2017 and all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery after being drafted seventh overall in 2016, but once he's healthy, he has the highest ceiling in this group. Pre-surgery, he threw a low 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a good changeup, all of which he could control, which would seemingly give him a great combination of ceiling of floor if he were healthy. However, he comes with a lot of risk considering we just don't know what his stuff will look like so long after surgery, and because he turned 21 in August, he's not young as far as "guys who have made four starts since high school" go. 23 year old Zac Gallen, 23 year old Robert Dugger, and 26 year old Jeff Brigham are three guys who could contribute to the back of the rotation soon. Gallen is probably the best of the three, having posted a 3.65 ERA and a 136/48 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA New Orleans this year, though he does have problems with his average stuff getting hit too hard too often. Dugger, meanwhile, had a 3.40 ERA and a 141/43 strikeout to walk ratio between Jupiter and Jacksonville, and while he's behind Gallen on the depth chart, he has a similar career outlook. Brigham is older but posted a 2.36 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings between Jacksonville, New Orleans, and complex ball rehab work, and while he throws mid 90's, his secondary stuff does need some work, and at 26, he's probably not getting much better. He may have to transition to the bullpen. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Puckett is another under the radar arm, one who posted a 2.56 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 98/18 strikeout to walk ratio between Greensboro, Jupiter, and complex ball rehab work. He gets by much more on command than stuff, and while he's behind the above trio on the depth chart, he could sneak up to the majors as a back-end starter.
Showing posts with label Will Banfield. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Will Banfield. Show all posts
Friday, November 9, 2018
Monday, July 2, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Miami Marlins
First 5 rounds: Connor Scott (1-13), Osiris Johnson (2-53), Will Banfield (CBB-69), Tristan Pompey (3-89), Nick Fortes (4-117), Chris Vallimont (5-147)
Also notable: Peyton Culbertson (8-237), Sam Bordner (16-477), Garrett McDaniels (30-897)
The Marlins clearly went looking for upside in this draft, although aside from first round pick Connor Scott, I don't think they got as much as they could have. I don't think it's as bad as last year's draft, which was awful in my opinion, but they just seem to have an aversion to guys I like (aside from Scott) and an attraction towards players I don't think all that highly of. I do think Tristan Pompey in the third round was a pretty decent grab, but I don't like going $1 million over slot for Will Banfield and I think Osiris Johnson belonged just a hair lower in the draft. Additionally, it looks like they wanted to focus on bats, taking five straight hitters at the top of the draft (including the competitive balance round) before popping Mercyhurst righty Chris Vallimont in the fifth round.
1-13: OF Connor Scott (my rank: 11)
This is easily my favorite pick in the draft. Scott is a high schooler from the same Plant High School (Tampa) that produced Wade Boggs and Astros top prospect Kyle Tucker, and Scott's quirky swing is actually pretty similar to Tucker's. Scott is an ultra-athletic, 6'4" string bean with great speed, a great arm, and the potential for a great bat. That bat is the biggest question mark, but even though the mechanics are a bit awkward, I like that he leaves his hands back and then flings the bat through the zone with great bat speed. He needs to incorporate his lower half more, which will improve his currently average power considerably, but I see enough projection in the swing to profile him as a potential plus hitter. The Marlins' player development isn't the best, but the fact that he can definitely stick in center field buys the bat some time. He signed right at slot for just over $4 million.
2-53: SS Osiris Johnson (my rank: 79)
Johnson is a high schooler out of the Oakland, California area, and he's a cousin of Jimmy Rollins. He's a fairly similar player to Rangers third rounder Jonathan Ornelas, who went 91st overall, though I do like Ornelas better. Like Ornelas, Osiris is an infielder with a big swing that generates more power than you'd expect for a six footer, though it does lead to a lot of swings and misses. He's a capable defender in the infield and should be able to stay there, though shortstop looks unlikely at this point. One thing he does have going for him is his age, as he does not turn 18 until October, making him one of the youngest players in the draft. It's a high risk, high reward pick, though I think the risk is just a bit high for the 53rd pick. He signed for $1.35 million, which is $31,500 over slot.
CBB-69: C Will Banfield (my rank: 52)
I wouldn't mind the Banfield pick here if the Marlins didn't go so far over slot to sign him. He's a high school catcher, a traditionally risky demographic, and his glove is ahead of his bat, making him even riskier. The Atlanta area high schooler is known for his great arm and great blocking skills, so he'll stick behind the plate and be above average there, but he struggled to make consistent contact during his senior season and that's worrisome. There is power potential there, and I can see him hitting 20-30 home runs per season if he makes enough contact, but he simply hasn't done enough to make me feel comfortable that he will make that much contact. He signed for $1.8 million, which is $905,400 above slot for the 69th pick. He has played two games so far and has one hit in seven at bats (.143 AVG), striking out three times in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-89: OF Tristan Pompey (my rank: 60)
This is a pretty decent pick here in my opinion. Pompey is an outfielder at Kentucky, standing out for his high level of performance in the SEC. As a sophomore in 2017, he slashed .361/.464/.541 with ten home runs and a 56/46 strikeout to walk ratio, then followed it up in 2018 with a .335/.448/.557 line with seven home runs and a 47/33 ratio. He was more inconsistent in 2018, going through hot stretches but also looking lost at the plate at times, and his strikeout rates have always been high (17.5% in 2017, 21% in 2018). While his walk rates have also been high (14.4% in 2017, 14.7% in 2018), he doesn't seem to have much of a plan at the plate, which explains his inconsistency. He has gotten by so far on his athleticism and natural skill, though it will take pro coaching to get him over the hump and to reach his potential. Still, I like the combination of SEC production and projection for a third round pick. He reminds me of Padres 2016 second rounder Buddy Reed, another athletic, switch hitting SEC outfielder who played better in his sophomore year than his junior year. Reed struggled out of the gate in his pro career (.234/.290/.396 in 2017) but has turned it around in the hitter-friendly California League this year (.327/.377/.544). Pompey signed for $645,000, which is $2,400 above slot.
4-117: C Nick Fortes (unranked)
If Scott, Johnson, Banfield, and Pompey were the upside picks, Nick Fortes is the safety pick. He's a do-it-all catcher out of Ole Miss, coming off a junior season where he slashed .319/.435/.519 with 11 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 25/46 strikeout to walk ratio. All of his tools grade out as average, as he looks to be a good-fielding catcher with some power, the ability to get on base, and even some speed so that he doesn't clog the bases like most catchers. His swing is simple, and while I don't see him hitting 20 home runs in a season, he'll hit for enough power and make enough contact to get by. That 15.8% walk rate, combined with the low 8.6% strikeout rate, will help him move through the minors and be able to match up against advanced pitching. Most importantly, he is reportedly a good leader from behind the plate, and it all adds up to a back-up catcher profile, albeit one with a high floor. He signed for $425,000, which is $49,000 below slot. He went 1-4 with a single and a walk in his New York-Penn League debut.
Others: 8th rounder Peyton Culbertson is a 6'1" right handed pitcher out of Arkansas State, where he went 2-5 with a 3.73 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 48/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 50.2 innings. He has battled some injuries but and his stuff is ahead of his command at this point, with his sinking mid 90's fastball and good slider getting hit more than they should when he falls behind in the count. If he converts to the bullpen, he could sit in the upper 90's and be fast tracked to the majors. 16th rounder Sam Bordner has been a valuable reliever for three years at Louisville, standing out more for his exceptional sophomore season (0.41 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB) than his comparatively pedestrian junior year (3.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB). He's a 6'6" righty that has battled injuries this year and who hasn't pitched since April, showing a fastball around 90 and a decent slider that should pick up with pro coaching. He relies on deception for his success, and could climb the ladder as a middle reliever if he gets back to his 2017 form. 30th rounder Garrett McDaniels is a top five rounds talent who slid to the 30th due to signability issues, and with the Marlins blowing all of their over slot space on Will Banfield, it's essentially certain that he'll head to Coastal Carolina rather than sign. The skinny 6'2" lefty out of high school in rural South Carolina has a high three quarters delivery that puts deception on his fastball/curveball combination, though he's very raw as it is. He doesn't always get his fastball up to 90 and the control is a work in progress, but I do like the curveball and a few years at Coastal could do him a lot of good.
Also notable: Peyton Culbertson (8-237), Sam Bordner (16-477), Garrett McDaniels (30-897)
The Marlins clearly went looking for upside in this draft, although aside from first round pick Connor Scott, I don't think they got as much as they could have. I don't think it's as bad as last year's draft, which was awful in my opinion, but they just seem to have an aversion to guys I like (aside from Scott) and an attraction towards players I don't think all that highly of. I do think Tristan Pompey in the third round was a pretty decent grab, but I don't like going $1 million over slot for Will Banfield and I think Osiris Johnson belonged just a hair lower in the draft. Additionally, it looks like they wanted to focus on bats, taking five straight hitters at the top of the draft (including the competitive balance round) before popping Mercyhurst righty Chris Vallimont in the fifth round.
1-13: OF Connor Scott (my rank: 11)
This is easily my favorite pick in the draft. Scott is a high schooler from the same Plant High School (Tampa) that produced Wade Boggs and Astros top prospect Kyle Tucker, and Scott's quirky swing is actually pretty similar to Tucker's. Scott is an ultra-athletic, 6'4" string bean with great speed, a great arm, and the potential for a great bat. That bat is the biggest question mark, but even though the mechanics are a bit awkward, I like that he leaves his hands back and then flings the bat through the zone with great bat speed. He needs to incorporate his lower half more, which will improve his currently average power considerably, but I see enough projection in the swing to profile him as a potential plus hitter. The Marlins' player development isn't the best, but the fact that he can definitely stick in center field buys the bat some time. He signed right at slot for just over $4 million.
2-53: SS Osiris Johnson (my rank: 79)
Johnson is a high schooler out of the Oakland, California area, and he's a cousin of Jimmy Rollins. He's a fairly similar player to Rangers third rounder Jonathan Ornelas, who went 91st overall, though I do like Ornelas better. Like Ornelas, Osiris is an infielder with a big swing that generates more power than you'd expect for a six footer, though it does lead to a lot of swings and misses. He's a capable defender in the infield and should be able to stay there, though shortstop looks unlikely at this point. One thing he does have going for him is his age, as he does not turn 18 until October, making him one of the youngest players in the draft. It's a high risk, high reward pick, though I think the risk is just a bit high for the 53rd pick. He signed for $1.35 million, which is $31,500 over slot.
CBB-69: C Will Banfield (my rank: 52)
I wouldn't mind the Banfield pick here if the Marlins didn't go so far over slot to sign him. He's a high school catcher, a traditionally risky demographic, and his glove is ahead of his bat, making him even riskier. The Atlanta area high schooler is known for his great arm and great blocking skills, so he'll stick behind the plate and be above average there, but he struggled to make consistent contact during his senior season and that's worrisome. There is power potential there, and I can see him hitting 20-30 home runs per season if he makes enough contact, but he simply hasn't done enough to make me feel comfortable that he will make that much contact. He signed for $1.8 million, which is $905,400 above slot for the 69th pick. He has played two games so far and has one hit in seven at bats (.143 AVG), striking out three times in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-89: OF Tristan Pompey (my rank: 60)
This is a pretty decent pick here in my opinion. Pompey is an outfielder at Kentucky, standing out for his high level of performance in the SEC. As a sophomore in 2017, he slashed .361/.464/.541 with ten home runs and a 56/46 strikeout to walk ratio, then followed it up in 2018 with a .335/.448/.557 line with seven home runs and a 47/33 ratio. He was more inconsistent in 2018, going through hot stretches but also looking lost at the plate at times, and his strikeout rates have always been high (17.5% in 2017, 21% in 2018). While his walk rates have also been high (14.4% in 2017, 14.7% in 2018), he doesn't seem to have much of a plan at the plate, which explains his inconsistency. He has gotten by so far on his athleticism and natural skill, though it will take pro coaching to get him over the hump and to reach his potential. Still, I like the combination of SEC production and projection for a third round pick. He reminds me of Padres 2016 second rounder Buddy Reed, another athletic, switch hitting SEC outfielder who played better in his sophomore year than his junior year. Reed struggled out of the gate in his pro career (.234/.290/.396 in 2017) but has turned it around in the hitter-friendly California League this year (.327/.377/.544). Pompey signed for $645,000, which is $2,400 above slot.
4-117: C Nick Fortes (unranked)
If Scott, Johnson, Banfield, and Pompey were the upside picks, Nick Fortes is the safety pick. He's a do-it-all catcher out of Ole Miss, coming off a junior season where he slashed .319/.435/.519 with 11 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 25/46 strikeout to walk ratio. All of his tools grade out as average, as he looks to be a good-fielding catcher with some power, the ability to get on base, and even some speed so that he doesn't clog the bases like most catchers. His swing is simple, and while I don't see him hitting 20 home runs in a season, he'll hit for enough power and make enough contact to get by. That 15.8% walk rate, combined with the low 8.6% strikeout rate, will help him move through the minors and be able to match up against advanced pitching. Most importantly, he is reportedly a good leader from behind the plate, and it all adds up to a back-up catcher profile, albeit one with a high floor. He signed for $425,000, which is $49,000 below slot. He went 1-4 with a single and a walk in his New York-Penn League debut.
Others: 8th rounder Peyton Culbertson is a 6'1" right handed pitcher out of Arkansas State, where he went 2-5 with a 3.73 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 48/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 50.2 innings. He has battled some injuries but and his stuff is ahead of his command at this point, with his sinking mid 90's fastball and good slider getting hit more than they should when he falls behind in the count. If he converts to the bullpen, he could sit in the upper 90's and be fast tracked to the majors. 16th rounder Sam Bordner has been a valuable reliever for three years at Louisville, standing out more for his exceptional sophomore season (0.41 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB) than his comparatively pedestrian junior year (3.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB). He's a 6'6" righty that has battled injuries this year and who hasn't pitched since April, showing a fastball around 90 and a decent slider that should pick up with pro coaching. He relies on deception for his success, and could climb the ladder as a middle reliever if he gets back to his 2017 form. 30th rounder Garrett McDaniels is a top five rounds talent who slid to the 30th due to signability issues, and with the Marlins blowing all of their over slot space on Will Banfield, it's essentially certain that he'll head to Coastal Carolina rather than sign. The skinny 6'2" lefty out of high school in rural South Carolina has a high three quarters delivery that puts deception on his fastball/curveball combination, though he's very raw as it is. He doesn't always get his fastball up to 90 and the control is a work in progress, but I do like the curveball and a few years at Coastal could do him a lot of good.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Catchers
This will be my first in a series of position-by-position lists for the top players in the 2018 MLB Draft. The list is drawn from all eligible players, including high school, junior college, and four year college. It is based on my own analysis from video and online scouting reports.
This year's catching class is led by Joey Bart, who will look to join Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, and fellow Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Matt Wieters as one of the best catchers to come out of college baseball in recent memory. Noah Naylor, Anthony Seigler, and Will Banfield make up the top tier of high school catching, which is typically a very risky demographic that I would try to steer away from if I were a decision maker. After him, Josh Breaux leads the JuCo pack, and J.J. Schwarz, Cal Raleigh, and Ryan Jeffers provide more power from the college side. A few of these guys may have to move off catcher as they move up through the levels, but good catching is hard to find these days and the risk is often worthwhile.
1. Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
Bart isn't just the best catcher in this draft, but he's the best catching prospect in any draft since Florida's Mike Zunino in 2012, and while he may not beat Zunino's landing spot at third overall, he has a very good chance to have a better career. After a very solid sophomore season where he slashed .296/.370/.575 with 13 home runs in 44 games, he took a huge step forward in 2018, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs in 57 games. He also dropped his strikeout rate moderately from 24% to 20.6% while nearly doubling his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is real, as Bart can mash baseballs out of sight and has done so regularly. He has also greatly improved his defensive game, as scouts love the way he handles pitchers and he has gone from a fringe-average defender to an above average one with a cannon arm. His ceiling is that of Gary Sanchez, and he has a very good shot to at least match Zunino as a power hitting, solid fielding every day catcher. He's likely to go in the top five picks and certainly won't last past the top ten.
2. Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
Padres prospect Josh Naylor's younger brother has a chance to be a first round pick as well. High school catchers are notoriously risky, but Naylor's big bat will help ease teams' worries about drafting one. The Ontario native has big time power from the left side and does have plenty of feel to hit, so even if he has to move off of catcher, the bat should be able to carry him even as a first baseman. Personally, I think he could add even more power if he learns to gain more ground with his load. He does have a backup plan before first base, as he is a competent defender at third, and it won't take much improvement in his defense there for him to stay there. With his solid arm and adequate receiving skills, he's a catcher for now, and if he can stay there, he could start in the majors. Naylor looks to go towards the back of the first round and is committed to Texas A&M.
3. Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
Seigler has had some helium during this draft, and could actually hear his name called before Naylor's. The switch hitter generates pop from both sides of the plate, but that power is more a product of his solid feel for the barrel than of his brute strength. He's the most athletic catcher available among top five round talents, showing solid defense behind the plate and enough agility to actually profile at some infield spots as well. However, he does turn 19 just after the draft, making him one of the older players in this year's high school class. As a couple of fun facts, he is half Navajo and can also switch pitch in addition to switch hitting. He's committed to Florida.
4. Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
Across the Atlanta metro area is Will Banfield, perhaps the best defensive catcher among top five round prospects. His arm is arguably the best in the class, and he combines that with agility behind the plate that can match up with Seigler's. However, his bat lags behind his glove, as he has shown little feel for the barrel and that can kill a career. If a pro team can help him find the barrel more often, he does have loft in his swing and could hit for some power, but it's a big if, especially with the rigors of catching. He has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than the other guys on this list and is committed to Vanderbilt, which could make him a tough sign if he falls past the early second round.
5. Josh Breaux (McLennan JC, TX)
Breaux is more of a third tier catcher, as opposed to Naylor, Seigler, and Banfield, who are second tier guys, but his power is as loud as anybody's aside from Bart. The JuCo standout absolutely raked this year at .404/.532/.831 with 18 home runs in 56 games, granted that is against lower level pitching from other junior colleges around Texas. There is worry about his contact, as he takes a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach at the plate, which knocks him out of the first two rounds, and his defense behind the plate is just adequate. However, he has a cannon arm that can produce 100 MPH fastballs on the mound, so he could conceivably be a passable defender overall with a little bit of improvement with the glove. He has battled some arm injuries this year, which could sap his arm strength and delay his development if they continue to resurface. He is committed to Arkansas for his upper-classman years.
Others: Kameron Guangorena (St. John Bosco HS, CA), Cal Raleigh (Florida State), Ryan Jeffers (UNC Wilmington), J.J. Schwarz (Florida)
This year's catching class is led by Joey Bart, who will look to join Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, and fellow Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Matt Wieters as one of the best catchers to come out of college baseball in recent memory. Noah Naylor, Anthony Seigler, and Will Banfield make up the top tier of high school catching, which is typically a very risky demographic that I would try to steer away from if I were a decision maker. After him, Josh Breaux leads the JuCo pack, and J.J. Schwarz, Cal Raleigh, and Ryan Jeffers provide more power from the college side. A few of these guys may have to move off catcher as they move up through the levels, but good catching is hard to find these days and the risk is often worthwhile.
1. Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
Bart isn't just the best catcher in this draft, but he's the best catching prospect in any draft since Florida's Mike Zunino in 2012, and while he may not beat Zunino's landing spot at third overall, he has a very good chance to have a better career. After a very solid sophomore season where he slashed .296/.370/.575 with 13 home runs in 44 games, he took a huge step forward in 2018, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs in 57 games. He also dropped his strikeout rate moderately from 24% to 20.6% while nearly doubling his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is real, as Bart can mash baseballs out of sight and has done so regularly. He has also greatly improved his defensive game, as scouts love the way he handles pitchers and he has gone from a fringe-average defender to an above average one with a cannon arm. His ceiling is that of Gary Sanchez, and he has a very good shot to at least match Zunino as a power hitting, solid fielding every day catcher. He's likely to go in the top five picks and certainly won't last past the top ten.
2. Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
Padres prospect Josh Naylor's younger brother has a chance to be a first round pick as well. High school catchers are notoriously risky, but Naylor's big bat will help ease teams' worries about drafting one. The Ontario native has big time power from the left side and does have plenty of feel to hit, so even if he has to move off of catcher, the bat should be able to carry him even as a first baseman. Personally, I think he could add even more power if he learns to gain more ground with his load. He does have a backup plan before first base, as he is a competent defender at third, and it won't take much improvement in his defense there for him to stay there. With his solid arm and adequate receiving skills, he's a catcher for now, and if he can stay there, he could start in the majors. Naylor looks to go towards the back of the first round and is committed to Texas A&M.
3. Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
Seigler has had some helium during this draft, and could actually hear his name called before Naylor's. The switch hitter generates pop from both sides of the plate, but that power is more a product of his solid feel for the barrel than of his brute strength. He's the most athletic catcher available among top five round talents, showing solid defense behind the plate and enough agility to actually profile at some infield spots as well. However, he does turn 19 just after the draft, making him one of the older players in this year's high school class. As a couple of fun facts, he is half Navajo and can also switch pitch in addition to switch hitting. He's committed to Florida.
4. Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
Across the Atlanta metro area is Will Banfield, perhaps the best defensive catcher among top five round prospects. His arm is arguably the best in the class, and he combines that with agility behind the plate that can match up with Seigler's. However, his bat lags behind his glove, as he has shown little feel for the barrel and that can kill a career. If a pro team can help him find the barrel more often, he does have loft in his swing and could hit for some power, but it's a big if, especially with the rigors of catching. He has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than the other guys on this list and is committed to Vanderbilt, which could make him a tough sign if he falls past the early second round.
5. Josh Breaux (McLennan JC, TX)
Breaux is more of a third tier catcher, as opposed to Naylor, Seigler, and Banfield, who are second tier guys, but his power is as loud as anybody's aside from Bart. The JuCo standout absolutely raked this year at .404/.532/.831 with 18 home runs in 56 games, granted that is against lower level pitching from other junior colleges around Texas. There is worry about his contact, as he takes a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach at the plate, which knocks him out of the first two rounds, and his defense behind the plate is just adequate. However, he has a cannon arm that can produce 100 MPH fastballs on the mound, so he could conceivably be a passable defender overall with a little bit of improvement with the glove. He has battled some arm injuries this year, which could sap his arm strength and delay his development if they continue to resurface. He is committed to Arkansas for his upper-classman years.
Others: Kameron Guangorena (St. John Bosco HS, CA), Cal Raleigh (Florida State), Ryan Jeffers (UNC Wilmington), J.J. Schwarz (Florida)
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