2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Los Angeles Dodgers

Even after graduating guys like Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Alex Verdugo in recent years, this system remains very deep, aided by the successful Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade with Cincinnati that brought Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, both of whom broke out in 2019. Of course, the two headliners of the system are Gavin Lux, who could be an All Star at second base, and Dustin May, a potential ace, both of whom could compete for the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2020. The system is pretty deep and balanced throughout, with the notable exception being the outfield after the graduation of Verdugo, as there are no true impact prospects at this point and the two with the highest ceiling, Andy Pages and Luis Rodriguez, are both very far off.

Affiliates: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers, AA Tulsa Drillers, High A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class A Great Lakes Loons, rookie level Ogden Raptors, complex level AZL and DSL Dodgers

Catcher
- Keibert Ruiz (2020 Age: 21-22): Will Smith put on a show after his May call-up with 15 home runs in 54 games, but the Dodgers have another stud catcher coming up right behind him. In 2019, Keibert Ruiz slashed .261/.331/.347 with six home runs and a 22/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, though a broken finger ended his season in August. Developing young catching is hard, but Ruiz has made it easy by reaching AAA the day after his 21st birthday in 2019 due to just exceptional strike zone judgement as well as good defense behind the plate. He puts the bat on the ball really, really easily, which has enabled him to handle advanced pitching at a young age. The Dodgers continue to hope that some power will come, and he did hit 12 home runs in 101 games in AA in 2018, though that will require a chance in his contact-oriented approach. He's still very young for a catcher that's already knocking on the big league door, so he has time to add impact at the plate, and he'll need to do so if he wants to eventually take the starting role away from Smith.
- Connor Wong (2020 Age: 23-24): The Dodgers drafted Wong in the third round out of the University of Houston in 2017, and he's hit well in pro ball, most recently slashing .281/.336/.541 with 24 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 143/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa in 2019. Wong isn't the most disciplined or the most physical hitter at a skinny 6'1", but his quick uppercut helps him produce plenty of power and get to it consistently. The aggressive approach didn't hurt him in AA, where he actually hit .349/.393/.604 in 40 games then raked in the playoffs, and the Dodgers would like to think this will carry over to the highest level. The defensive situation might get interesting, because Will Smith has the better glove and Ruiz is probably a bit ahead of him in that regard as well, but Wong won't be forced to first base because he can actually handle second or third base. Since Smith and Ruiz probably have the catching position locked up for the long term, so Wong could be an interesting super-utility type who starts all over the field, including behind the plate.
- Diego Cartaya (2020 Age: 18): The Dodgers gave Cartaya $2.5 million to sign out of Venzuela in 2018, and he made a strong impression in his first pro season in 2019 by slashing .281/.343/.432 with four home runs and a 42/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games between the complex level affiliates in the Dominican Summer League and the Arizona League. He has a simple, clean right handed swing that's hit over power for now, but he creates enough leverage that he should be able to grow into some power, perhaps above average power. Defensively, he's very advanced and only figures to get better, and he will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old so he has plenty of time to develop further.
- Keep an eye on: Hunter Feduccia, Marco Hernandez

Corner Infield
- Edwin Rios (2020 Age: 26): Rios has worked his way up slowly since being a sixth round pick out of Florida International University in 2015, repeating AAA in 2019 and slashing .270/.340/.575 with 31 home runs and a 153/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games there, also hitting a strong .277/.393/.617 with four home runs and a 21/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 major league games. Rios strikes out a lot, but he uses his 6'3" frame effectively to get great extension on the ball and drive it out to all fields. Combining his fringy hit tool with his fringy defense means that he probably won't ever be a full time starter in Los Angeles, plus Justin Turner and Max Muncy already have the infield corners locked down, but his power could make him a nice role player or platoon bat in the near future.
- Miguel Vargas (2020 Age: 20): After the Dodgers signed Vargas for $300,000 out of Cuba in 2017, he made a strong first impression by slashing .330/.404/.465 in his first pro season in 2018, then took another step forward in 2019 by slashing .308/.380/.440 with seven home runs, 13 stolen bases, and an 83/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Great Lakes and High A Rancho Cucamonga. Lean and strong at 6'3", he's an extremely competent hitter who stands out most for his ability to find the barrel with ease against advanced pitching at a very young age. Vargas hits for mostly extra base power for now, and he did hit 38 doubles in 2019, though he could grow into some power as he begins to get those extra base hits over the fence. He doesn't need to in order to be a valuable hitter, though, as he should be able to post high on-base percentages to go along with those extra base hits at the major league level. He's still a work in progress defensively and may have to move to first base, which would put pressure on him adding power, but he'll play all of 2020 at just 20 years old and has a lot of time to figure out who he is as a player.
- Kody Hoese (2020 Age: 22-23): Hoese put up a massive breakout season at Tulane in 2019, then rode that to a late first round selection to the Dodgers, where he slashed .299/.380/.483 with five home runs and a 25/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games between the complex level Arizona League and Class A Great Lakes. He uses a simple right handed swing and the natural leverage in his 6'4" frame to hit for potentially plus raw power, and his plate discipline is advanced enough that he should be a fairly safe bet despite his lack of a track record. If his massive 2019 wasn't a mirage, he could hit 25-30 home runs annually at the major league level while posting solid on-base percentages. While his .264/.330/.385 line at Class A was pretty decent for a hitter in his pro debut, he still does have to prove that his power will play up against advanced pitching. He's a decent defender at third base but should stick there.
- Michael Busch (2020 Age: 22): The Dodgers picked Busch out of UNC just six picks after Hoese in 2019, though he slashed just .125/.371/.125 with a 5/7 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the Arizona League and Class A Great Lakes before a broken hand ended his season. Busch is an interesting hitter – he has good power, and he's proven he can get to it consistently against advanced competition in the ACC and in the Cape Cod League. Meanwhile, he does have some swing and miss in his game, but he has such a great feel for the strike zone that he can mitigate most of it by not chasing bad pitches. He's a pretty safe bet to be a solid contributor with both power and on-base percentages, but the bigger questions surround his defense. He played first base and left field in college, both pretty mediocrely, and the Dodgers have tried him out so far as a second baseman. He's not fast nor does he have a strong arm, so the Dodgers are just going to have to figure out where he's the least bit of a liability.
- Brandon Lewis (2020 Age: 21): Lewis, a fourth rounder out of UC-Irvine, gives the Dodgers a third 2019 draftee that figures prominently into their future infield scheme. A graduate of Bishop Alemany High School in Mission Hills, he also gives them another hometown kid to root for behind Lakewood's Justin Turner. Lewis is on an upward trajectory if one ever existed, as he was barely recruited out of high school, attended Pierce College for a couple of years, then broke out for the Anteaters in 2019. In his pro debut, he slashed .297/.365/.534 with 13 home runs and a 58/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games between the Arizona League, rookie level Ogden, and Class A Great Lakes, showing both the tremendous raw power that got him drafted and the swing and miss issues that mean he'll be a bit of a project. The fact that he was able to get to his power consistently in the Pioneer League was a nice sign, as were the two home runs he hit against moderately advanced pitching in the Midwest League playoffs. He has a high ceiling as a power hitting third baseman, but there's also a chance he has to move to first base and that will put more pressure on his ability to make contact. As someone who will play all of 2020 at 21 years old, he's young for a college draftee, so he'll have a bit of extra time to develop.
- Keep an eye on: Cristian Santana, Dillon Paulson, Justin Yurchak

Middle Infield
- Gavin Lux (2020 Age: 22): There's no way around it that Lux is one of the best prospects in baseball and already a leading candidate to give the Dodgers a third NL Rookie of the Year in five years. A late first round pick out of a Kenosha, Wisconsin high school in 2016, he took a little bit to find his footing but broke out by slashing .324/.399/.514 in 2018 after he reworked his approach. He was even better in 2019, slashing .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 102/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, then he hit .240/.305/.400 with a pair of home runs and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 major league games. Lux is pretty much the complete package as a player, showing above average power with exceptional feel for the barrel and the strike zone that enables that power to play up consistently and helps him post high on-base percentages. He's solid average at second base if a bit above, and he has enough speed to be a threat on the base paths. The Dodgers are committed to Lux as their starting second baseman in 2020 and beyond, and he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases to boot – an All Star profile.
- Jeter Downs (2020 Age: 21-22): Downs was a Reds competitive balance pick out of a Miami-area high school in 2017, then was shipped to the Dodgers in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal, which is now looking like a coup for the Dodgers. In his first season in the Dodgers' system, he had a breakout season offensively, slashing .276/.362/.526 with 24 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 107/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, also adding 35 doubles and four triples. Downs just knows how to play the game, with advanced feel for the barrel and the strike zone for his age and the athleticism to make his average raw power play up in games. He's also a smart baserunner that can make his average speed play up on the bases, and he's parlayed that into 61 stolen bases over the last two seasons. Overall, the package is actually somewhat similar to a base-model Gavin Lux, just take half a grade off each tool and flip him to the other batters' box.
- Omar Estevez (2020 Age: 22): Estevez is a Cuban defector who received $6 million to sign with the Dodgers in 2015, and they quickly assigned him to Class A shortly after his 18th birthday. He hasn't moved as quickly as originally hoped, but he still reached the upper minors at just 21 years old in 2019 and slashed .292/.353/.429 with six home runs and a 78/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Tulsa and some complex level rehab work. He has advanced feel for the barrel that helped him finish second in the minors with 43 doubles in 2018, and his powerful swing helps him produce at least a little bit of power from a smaller 5'10" frame. He's most likely to end up a high on-base guy who gets a lot of extra base hits, though the glove is kind of fringy and he fits best at second base. Overall, that's probably a utility projection.
- Jacob Amaya (2020 Age: 21): Right behind Estevez is Jacob Amaya, another local kid who attended South Hills High School in West Covina before being drafted in the eleventh round in 2017. In 2019, Amaya slashed .260/.369/.391 with seven home runs and a 98/81 strikeout to walk ratio, standing out more for his feel for the game than any individual tools. Amaya makes consistent contact with his quick right handed swing, though he tends to swing over the ball and put it on the ground a lot. He's not the biggest guy at six feet tall, but he does have the leverage in his quick barrel to eventually get close to average power. Perhaps his best offensive tool is his patience, as he is more than willing to work counts and draw walks without getting into trouble with strikeouts, which boosts his on-base percentages considerably. He's also not the flashiest defender, but he gets the job done and could fit at shortstop in more of a utility role rather than a full time one. If he can add a little pop, there is the chance he could end up a starting second baseman down the line, though the presence of Gavin Lux and Jeter Downs complicate that a bit.
- Keep an eye on: Drew Jackson, Devin Mann, Eddys Leonard, Alex De Jesus

Outfield
- DJ Peters (2020 Age: 24): Chalk up another LA native for the Dodgers, as Peters is a graduate of Glendora High School who ended up at a Nevada community college for school, then earned a fourth round selection in the 2016 draft. He's hit his way up through the system and reached the top in 2019, slashing .249/.358/.453 with 23 home runs and a 168/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City. He's got considerable power, but there's a bit too much swing and miss for it to fully play up in the majors, and with the Dodgers' deep outfield situation, he most likely profiles as a power hitting fourth outfielder or platoon bat. Of course, with the way Dodgers prospects just always seem to play better at the major league level, there's always the chance that the 6'6" slugger taps into some of that magic and hits 25+ home runs in the majors, but he will have to cut down on the swing and miss that's caused him to strike out 559 times over the last three seasons.
- Zach Reks (2020 Age: 26): It's been a long road for Reks, who originally enrolled at the Air Force Academy in 2012, lasted one season, then transferred to Kentucky as a student, not a baseball player. He eventually walked onto the team and hit well enough over a couple of years to be drafted in the tenth round in 2017, by which time he was a fifth year senior and already 23 years old, then just kept on hitting once he hit pro ball. Mostly a contact hitter at first, he busted out the power stroke and slashed .291/.385/.536 with 28 home runs and a 131/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, and now he's knocking on the door to the big leagues. Reks generates a lot of raw power from a big left handed swing, but he controls it well enough to keep his strikeout rate from ballooning too high, and he also draws enough walks to balance it out. The Dodgers are so deep in the outfield that I honestly have no idea how in the world he'll hit his way onto the team, but in another organization, he could get a crack this year at being a fourth outfielder/platoon bat who can crush right handed pitching.
- Andy Pages (2020 Age: 19): Pages signed for $300,000 out of Cuba in 2018, then burst onto the scene in 2019 by slashing .298/.398/.651 with 19 home runs and a 79/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at rookie level Ogden at just 18 years old. Pages was more noted for his contact ability and feel for the barrel when he signed, but that's quickly manifested itself into real power (he also hit 22 doubles) real quickly as he's added significant loft to his swing already. There was some swing and miss, but he was also an 18 year old playing up in the Pioneer League, and the fact that he could get to his power enough for 43 extra base hits in 63 games is enough to know that the hit tool will play up, at least for now. He's a real sleeper to be an impact hitter and his full season debut in 2020 should be watched closely.
- Luis Rodriguez (2020 Age: 17): Rodriguez signed for nearly $2.7 million out of Venezuela in 2019, so he has yet to play in affiliated ball, but the Dodgers are certainly excited about his upside. He's a 6'2" right handed hitter that is already very advanced for his age, with the ability to work  counts and find the barrel consistently. He has a lot of room to grow into his frame and potentially add power, and he's already shown the ability to put significant leverage on the ball. A solid defender in the outfield, he probably profiles best in right field, but it's also far too soon to make any concrete projections, either about the bat or the glove. For now, he should just be watched to see what he develops into.
- Keep an eye on: Connor Joe, Carlos Rincon, Jeren Kendall, Starling Heredia

Starting Pitching
- Dustin May (2020 Age: 22): If anyone on this team has a shot at challenging Gavin Lux for the NL Rookie of the Year Award, it's Dustin May. May was drafted out of a Fort Worth-area high school the same year as Lux, in the third round in 2016, and he's gotten better every year, with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 110/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City in 2019, as well as a 3.63 ERA and a 32/5 strikeout to  walk ratio over 34.2 major league innings. He's hard to miss on the field – an absolute string bean at 6'6", his bright red, shoulder-length hair makes him one of the most recognizable prospects in the game. May's fastball now sits firmly in the mid 90's with a ton of late life, and he adds a whole group of unique secondary offerings. His hard downer curve is tough to square up, while his hard cutter can touch 92 and his changeup has taken a big step forward lately. Perhaps most importantly, he can command it all pretty well, which points to a long career as at least a #3 starter with a good chance for more.
- Tony Gonsolin (2020 Age: 25-26): Gonsolin, a native of Vacaville, California between Sacramento and the Bay Area, was a ninth round senior sign out of St. Mary's College in 2016 and has transformed as a pitcher in his brief time in the system. In 2019, he posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 50/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings at AAA Oklahoma City, but he was actually better in the majors with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 37/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings for the Dodgers. He's added a solid five miles per hour to his fastball in pro ball, now sitting in the mid 90's, but his best pitch is his splitter, a true plus pitch that just falls off the table at the last second while looking like a fastball the whole way. He also adds a very good downer curveball and mixes in a slider, giving hitters a wide variety of pitches they need to be ready for. With solid command, he should be a #3 or a #4 starter if he can break into the Dodgers' deep rotation in 2020.
- Josiah Gray (2020 Age: 22): Gray alone is going to make the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade look like a steal, and together with Jeter Downs, it's looking like a coup. When the Dodgers acquired Gray from the Reds, he was a recent competitive balance pick out of Division II Le Moyne College in New York who had only recently switched from shortstop to pitcher, albeit having made a strong impression in his pro debut (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB in rookie ball). In his first season in the Dodgers organization, he took off, posting a 2.28 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 147/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 innings at Class A Great Lakes, High A Rancho Cucamonga, and AA Tulsa. He now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, led by a slider that's flashing plus more often than not, a new curveball, and a quickly improving changeup. He has also been filling up the zone as he's gotten better and better about hitting his spots, and he looks nothing like the light hitting Division II shortstop he was just a couple years ago. With his upward trajectory, he has the ceiling of a #2 starter and a really good shot at becoming at least a mid-rotation guy.
- Mitchell White (2020 Age: 25): White, a San Jose native, was a second round pick out of Santa Clara in 2016, and he's reached the top of the minors but finds himself a bit behind some of the other prospects looking to crack the Dodgers rotation in 2020. In 2019, he posted a 5.09 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 105/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, pitching really well at the lower level but struggling a bit with a promotion to the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. White is very close to major league ready with a low to mid 90's fastball, a pair of very good breaking balls, and a decent changeup, though he needs to get more consistent overall, especially with his average command. In most systems, he'd probably be good enough as is to compete for a rotation spot out of spring training, but May, Gonsolin, and Gray are likely ahead of him on the depth chart as more complete pitchers. I wouldn't count him out as a starter just yet though because the talent is clearly there.
- Edwin Uceta (2020 Age: 22): Uceta signed for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016, but a strong 2018 put him on the map and he kept up the good work in 2019, posting a 2.77 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 141/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa. Uceta doesn't stand out for any particular pitch or skill, instead doing the little things right across the board to work his way up in a deep system. He's got a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and a changeup with nice fade, which he commands just well enough to make it all play up. He's a smaller guy at a listed six feet tall and 155 pounds, but he has topped 120 innings in back to back seasons, so he's proven durable to this point. He could be a #4 starter, or in the bullpen he could play off his fastball/changeup combination.
- Leo Crawford (2020 Age: 23): Nicaragua is mostly a soccer country, though there have been a few players to make the majors, most notably 1991 perfect game-thrower Dennis Martinez, and Leo Crawford is looking to add another to the short list. There isn't a ton of public information on Crawford, as he's only recently put himself on the map with a strong 2019 in which he posted a 2.81 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 134/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa. He's a crafty lefty with a lot of moving parts in his delivery, but he has good body control that enables him to throw plenty of strikes and hit his spots. I couldn't find much information, but it looks like he throws a fastball, slider, and a changeup, the latter of which has nice drop and can be an out pitch. That changeup, combined with his command and his ability to change his delivery and keep hitters off balance, has worked very well for him even up through AA, so he'll be an intriguing dark horse candidate to crack the rotation in 2020 or 2021.
- Michael Grove (2020 Age: 23): Grove was an out-of-nowhere pick in the second round out of West Virginia in 2018, as he was sitting out the year with Tommy John surgery and wasn't really on anybody's board. He finally got back on the mound in 2019 and posted a 6.10 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 73/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.2 innings in an aggressive assignment to High A Rancho Cucamonga. The ERA is a bit ugly and he didn't throw a whole lot of innings, but otherwise, I'd actually consider this season a success. He controlled the zone well with a 73/19 strikeout to walk ratio, and he did so in High A despite not having pitched since 2017 in the Big 12. Grove also looked better as the year went on, regaining his feel for pitching, and the Dodgers will be ready to turn him loose in 2020. Grove gets by with a low to mid 90's fastball and a very good slider, and refining his changeup is probably the last step for him to reach his ceiling as a #3 or #4 starter.
- Ryan Pepiot (2020 Age: 22): Pepiot slipped a little on draft boards with an inconsistent junior year at Butler in 2019, but the Dodgers eventually grabbed him in the third round and watched him post a 1.93 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League and at Class A Great Lakes. Pepiot stands out for his low 90's fastball and his excellent fading changeup, though he got in trouble at times when a) his two decent breaking balls began to run together or b) his command wavered. The combination of not having a true swing and miss breaking ball and spotty command might eventually push him to the bullpen, but the Dodgers will try to clean him up and get him more consistent overall, hoping that the presence of four pitches can keep him in the rotation and push him towards a ceiling of a #3 or #4 starter. The strong pro debut is at least a good sign.
- Jimmy Lewis (2020 Age: 19): The Dodgers picked Lewis up in the second compensation round in 2019, making him the second pick out of his own Austin-area high school after Mets first rounder Brett Baty. He's a projectable 6'6" righty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a curveball that looks really good at times, though it can soften up at times. He also throws a changeup that is fairly advanced for a high schooler, and he has the fairly advanced strike throwing ability to match. Overall, it's a nice combination of current ability and projection for a high school arm, with all the building blocks necessary to put together an impact starter and some of them already together.
- Keep an eye on: Gerardo Carrillo, Andre Jackson, John Rooney, Robinson Ortiz, Jack Little

Relief Pitching
- Dennis Santana (2020 Age: 24): With five highly regarded pitching prospects knocking on the door to the big league rotation, Santana and Mitchell White are probably in the second tier, and Santana's most likely path forward is probably the bullpen. In 2019, he had a 6.94 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP, and a 105/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.1 innings at AAA Oklahoma City, and he also has a 9.35 ERA and a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 career major league innings. He's always had the stuff, most notably a mid 90's fastball with sink and a good diving slider, also adding a decent changeup that can get too firm, but the command has been an issue throughout his career. There is some jerk in his delivery that can pull him off alignment, and now set to turn 24 at the start of the season, I'm not sure how much better it's going to get. That's why he's probably a reliever with all this pitching depth, where his fastball could hit the upper 90's and his slider could hopefully get a bit more consistent.
- Marshall Kasowski (2020 Age: 25): Kasowski, unlike Santana, is a true-relief prospect, one who posted a 2.27 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 51/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings between AA Tulsa and complex level rehab work despite missing some time with injuries mid season. He was a 13th round pick out of West Texas A&M in 2017, two years after surviving a car accident that nearly killed him, but since hitting pro ball he's struck out 37.1% of his opponents – 177 in just 107.2 innings. He's gotten most of those with just one pitch, a mid 90's fastball that comes from a higher than high overhand slot and is extremely difficult to pick up. He's got a curve to give hitters a different look, but really it's just the fastball. With mediocre command, he's probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning guy, but improving his command a little bit could help him move towards an eighth or ninth inning job.
- Aaron Ochsenbein (2020 Age: 24): Ochsenbein signed as a fifth year senior after being drafted in the sixth round out of Eastern Kentucky in 2019, so he'll already turn 24 in spring training (well technically, he's only turning five because he was born on February 29th, leap year day). He was an unremarkable prospect until he turned 23, when he broke out for a monster redshirt senior season and carried it over into pro ball, where he had a 1.44 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 35/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings between the complex level Arizona League, rookie level Ogden, and Class A Great Lakes. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent splitter that misses bats in bunches, in addition to an average slider, that will help him move quickly through the minors. With a little bit of deception in his delivery and good solid command, he's a good middle relief prospect to track.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Salow, Jordan Sheffield, Brett de Geus, Melvin Jimenez, Mitchell Tyranksi

2018 Draft: A Year Later

One year does not tell you everything you need to know about a draft's success, but the first full season is often a huge tell as to how a player's amateur production will translate into pro ball. In 2017, 2016 second rounder Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) slashed .362/.423/.565 in A ball to turn himself into one of the top prospects in his draft class, while fourth overall pick Riley Pint's (Rockies) 5.42 ERA and poor 79/59 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A that year pointed towards what has ultimately been a disappointing start to his pro career and a greatly diminished prospect status. Now, this does go the other way. Using the same 2016 draft class, third rounder Austin Hays (Orioles) slashed .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 2017 to vault himself all the way to the big leagues, but 2018 and 2019 have been rather pedestrian and he has lost some shine from that big first full season. On the flip side, first rounder Gavin Lux (Dodgers) looked rather mediocre in Class A that year with a .244/.331/.362 slash line, but he exploded for a .324/.399/.514 line in 2018 and is now one of the top prospects in the game.

All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.

The Top Five Picks

1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.

1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.

1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.

1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.

1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.

Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.

1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.

1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.

2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.

CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.

Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)

Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.

1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.

CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.

Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39,  Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)

2019 Minor League Awards

I put together some awards for the top minor leaguers in a few categories. These are strictly performance based and don't have anything to do with prospect status, though prospect status and being at a higher level would give some players the edge over others in close contests. Different minor leagues have very different run scoring environments, and those are very much factored into consideration. For example, the AAA Pacific Coast League is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, the AAA International League and High A California League are hitter-friendly as well, and leagues such as the AA Texas League, High A Florida State League, and the Class A Midwest League lean more pitcher-friendly.

Hitter of the Year

Winner: OF Luis Robert (White Sox High A, AA, and AAA, age 21-22)
32 HR, .328/.376/.624, 36 SB, 170 wRC+ in 122 games
In 2017, a 19 year old Braves prospect slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases across the three highest minor league levels, then won the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award. The White Sox hope that 22 year old Luis Robert is halfway to following in Ronald Acuna's footsteps with his huge and eerily similar season across three levels. Robert, who was 21 at the beginning of the season, began at High A Winston-Salem but demolished Carolina League pitching to the tune of a .453/.512/.920 slash line and eight home runs over 19 games before being promoted to AA Birmingham. He continued to rake in the Southern League, hitting eight more home runs and slashing .314/.362/.518 across 56 games, then got promoted again to AAA Charlotte. The ball was flying in AAA this year and all power numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but a .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs over 47 games is still extremely impressive for someone who started the season down in A ball. The Cuban outfielder is an exceptional athlete with the kind of power/speed combination teams covet, and by crushing 32 home runs in 2019, he proved that getting to that power is no problem whatsoever. He's an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contact and therefore fails to draw a ton of walks, but because he still hit .328, his .376 on-base percentage remained strong. Eloy Jimenez was the White Sox' top outfield prospect a year ago but Robert has a very good chance to be the better player very soon.

Runner-Up: SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers AA and AAA, age 21)
26 HR, .347/.421/.607, 10 SB, 165 wRC+ in 113 games
A first round pick in 2016 out of a Wisconsin high school, Lux has gotten better and better the longer he has been in the Dodgers system. A mediocre 2017 at Class A Great Lakes translated into a very strong 2018 between High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, and he returned to the level for 2019. Over 64 games, he slashed .313/.375/.521 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases, so the Dodgers promoted him across the state to AAA Oklahoma City. The Pacific Coast League is an extremely offense-friendly environment, but even in that context, the numbers he put up in 49 games were ludicrous: 13 home runs, a .392/.478/.719 slash line, and a strong 42/33 strikeout to walk ratio despite being just 21 years old. Together, that meant he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs over 113 games, all the while playing strong defense at shortstop and showing his speed on the bases. Lux has power, strong plate discipline, the ability to get on base, some speed, and strong infield defense, leaving very few holes in his game and he's already up in the major leagues contributing with the Dodgers. Unless he somehow reaches 130 at bats this September, he'll be a strong candidate for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Award after Dodgers won it in both 2016 (Corey Seager) and 2017 (Cody Bellinger), followed by a very strong 2018 performance from Walker Buehler.

Honorable Mention: OF Jarred Kelenic (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 19-20)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games
Jarred Kelenic's numbers might not be as eye popping as the other five players listed here, but he was also the only one who didn't get a turn through homer-happy AAA. Kelenic, the Mets' sixth overall pick out of a Wisconsin high school in 2018 who was traded to the Mariners in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano deal, began the season with Class A West Virginia and quickly hit his way out by slashing .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs in 50 games in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. Bumped up to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League, he held his own against older competition by slashing .290/.353/.485 with six home runs and ten stolen bases in 46 games. A second promotion brought him to AA Arkansas less than a month after his 20th birthday, and he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six home runs over 21 games against much older competition in the pitcher-friendly Texas League. Together, that gave him a 20-20 season, a strong .364 on-base percentage, and a .540 slugging percentage across three levels at a young age, adding in good defense in the outfield along the way. Had Kelenic had the chance to play at AAA Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League, his raw numbers may have rivaled those of Trent Grisham, listed right below in the "others" section.

Others
Brewers OF Trent Grisham (26 HR, .300/.407/.603, 12 SB, 166 wRC+ in 97 games, age 22)
Twins/Giants OF Jaylin Davis (35 HR, .306/.397/.590, 10 SB,  159 wRC+ in 126 games, age 24-25)
Padres 3B Ty France (27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games, age 24-25)

Pitcher of the Year

Winner: RHP Logan Gilbert (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 21-22)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP
Drafted in the first round out of Stetson in 2018, Gilbert didn't pitch professionally that year and first took the mound in the Mariners organization in April. At the close of the season, it's safe to say that it went pretty well. Gilbert started out at Class A West Virginia but lasted just five starts there with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 35/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 innings before being promoted to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League. Nobody told him that it was an offense-heavy environment, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings. Promoted again to AA Arkansas, he posted a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings, bringing him to 165 strikeouts, a 2.13 ERA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP over 26 starts, half of which came in the California League. His best start of the season came on May 19th, when he shut down a strong Rancho Cucamonga lineup (Dodgers High A) over seven innings, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out eleven. In all, he allowed no more than one earned run in 18 of his 26 starts, and he struck out at least five batters in 21 of 26. Gilbert should be up in the majors at some point in 2020 as a potential future ace.

Runner-Up: RHP James Marvel (Pirates AA and AAA, age 25)
16-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 136/46 K/BB in 162.1 IP
Marvel lacks the flash of other prospects on this list, and as a 25 year old former 36th round draft pick out of Duke, he still doesn't project to be much more than a #4 or #5 starter. Still, that doesn't take away from the fantastic season he had in 2019. Beginning the year with AA Altoona, he went 9-5 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an 83/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings – solid numbers, but nothing that rivals the other guys on this list. However, he was promoted to AAA Indianapolis in July to pitch in the very hitter-friendly International League, and he just kicked it into another gear by going 7-0 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings, helping him lead all minor leaguers with 16 wins and finish fifth with 162.1 innings pitched. The numbers aren't flashy, but the huge body of work combined with the exceptional turn through the International League where very few other pitchers seemed to be able to find their groove makes his final product as impressive as anybody's in Minor League Baseball. Marvel's most impressive start came on July 5th, when in his first game in the International League launching pad, he tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, no walks, and six strikeouts against Toledo (Tigers AAA). He also had Syracuse's (Mets AAA) number, tossing back to back starts of six shutout innings on a combined two hits and sixteen strikeouts (and five walks) on July 18th and 24th.

Honorable Mention: LHP MacKenzie Gore (Padres High A and AA, age 20)
9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135/28 K/BB in 101 IP
MLB Pipeline named MacKenzie Gore their minor league pitcher of the year, and while I can't quite get behind that due to his smaller body of work (Logan Gilbert threw 34 more innings and James Marvel through 61.1 more), there's no denying that Gore was nothing short of brilliant in 2019. The third overall pick of the 2017 draft out of a small town North Carolina high school, Gore showed flashes of what was to come with an up and down 2018 at Class A Fort Wayne (4.45 ERA, 74/18 K/BB), but 2019 was a completely different story altogether. Starting the year at High A Lake Elsinore in the hitter-friendly California League, Gore was as close to untouchable as it gets as he posted a 1.02 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 110/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, totaling just 56 non-error baserunners in 15 starts. He was promoted to AA Amarillo less than six months after his 20th birthday and pitched very well again, though his 4.15 ERA was skewed by his July 19th start against Northwest Arkansas (Royals AA) where he allowed seven earned runs. If you take out that one start, Gore's final ERA and WHIP would be 1.11 and 0.76, respectively, over 97 innings. That's insane. During his time in Lake Elsinore, he allowed more than one run in only one of his 15 starts, and even then he only let two cross the plate in six innings. His last two starts at the level were his best, as he combined for 13.2 shutout innings on six hits, four walks, and one hit batsman while striking out 18, ironically with both of those starts coming against Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers High A), the same team which touched him up for two runs earlier in the season and which Logan Gilbert had his best start against. Gore will probably return to Amarillo in 2020 but could pitch his way to the majors before the season is over.

Others
Dodgers RHP Josiah Gray (11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP, age 21)
Astros RHP Cristian Javier (8-3, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 170/59 K/BB in 113.2, age 22)
Rays RHP Joe Ryan (9-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 183/27 K/BB in 123.2 IP, age 22-23)

Other Notable Seasons

RHP Casey Mize (Tigers High A and AA, age 21-22)
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP
As of June 13th, Mize looked like a lock to not only make the Pitcher of the Year list, but win it handily. The 2018 first overall pick out of Auburn had been absolutely untouchable to that point, with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings across two levels. On April 29th, his first start at AA Erie less than a year after being drafted, he tossed a no-hitter with seven strikeouts against Altoona (Pirates AA). However, on June 13th, he went down with shoulder issues that kept him out for a month, and he allowed five or more earned runs in three of his first five starts back with AA Erie after two rehab starts at High A Lakeland. Hopefully, Mize puts the shoulder issue behind him and gets back on track in 2020.

RHP James Karinchak (Indians complex, AA, and AAA, age 23)
1-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 74/17 K/BB in 30.1 IP
A 2.67 ERA over 30 innings isn't going to land you on the short list for pitcher of the year, but Karinchak's season was pretty incredible nonetheless. In all, he struck out 74 of the 125 batters he faced, or 59.2%, which is the best number I've ever seen. Through two playoff games, he's struck out seven of the twelve batter's he's faced, bringing up him up to 81 strikeouts over 137 batters. He struggles with his command and won't be a major league closer immediately, but he misses bats like no other.

3B Ty France (Padres AAA, age 24-25) and 1B Kevin Cron (Diamondbacks AAA, age 26)
Ty France: 27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games
Kevin Cron: 39 HR, .329/.446/.777, 1 SB, 181 wRC+ in 84 games
Of all the big numbers put up in the AAA Pacific Coast League, perhaps no two hitters were more impressive than El Paso's Ty France and Reno's Kevin Cron. France flirted with .400 while hitting for power throughout the season and finished at .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs in 76 games, while Cron smashed 39 home runs in 84 games while slashing .329/.446/.777 along the way. France had back to back multi-homer games in April and he hit six home runs in a five game stretch in June. On July 25th, he had one of the better offensive performances of the season when he went 5-6 with a pair of home runs against Las Vegas (A's AAA). Meanwhile, Cron hit seven home runs in a six game stretch in May and blasted three home runs on August 13th against Oklahoma City (Dodgers AAA), and together with his five major league home runs, he's already hit 44 on the season despite missing a couple weeks in July.

Reviewing the Los Angeles Dodgers Farm System

The Dodgers feature a lot of high upside talent, but unlike a lot of other upside-oriented systems such as that of the Rangers or Indians, there is both a lot of depth here and more refinement in the high-upside players. The Dodgers do a terrific job of player development, which is obvious to us after they produced 2016 NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, 2017 NL Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger, and 2018 3rd place NL ROY finisher Walker Buehler in consecutive seasons. Even with that string of graduations and some trades that have sent away Yusniel Diaz, Dean Kremer, and James Marinan, among others, that player development system has enabled the team to continue keeping up a high level farm. Interestingly, this team also has a high number of catchers coming through the system with four guys that I'd like to note in this writeup – the most of any team so far.

Affiliates: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers, AA Tulsa Drillers, High A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class A Great Lakes Loons, rookie level Ogden Raptors, and complex level AZL and DSL Dodgers

High Minors Hitters: OF Alex Verdugo, C Will Smith, 1B Edwin Rios, C Keibert Ruiz, SS Gavin Lux, OF DJ Peters, and SS Errol Robinson
There is a lot of talent very close to the major leagues for the Dodgers, and with an incredibly deep big league roster as it its, a lot of these guys are expendable in a potential J.T. Realmuto or otherwise big trade. If they were actually able to find him playing time, I would call 22 year old Alex Verdugo the next in line in the Seager-Bellinger-Buehler parade, but with an already-crowded outfield, he's probably best off somewhere else right now because he's absolutely ready. In 2018, the Tucson native slashed .329/.391/.472 with ten home runs and a 47/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AAA Oklahoma City (plus .260/.329/.377 over 37 major league games), his second straight season with an OPS above .800 and a strikeout rate below 13% at AAA. He has exceptional contact ability that enables him to put even the fastest fastballs and best breaking balls in play, and that makes his moderate power play up. He'll never be a 25-30 homer bat in the majors, but he'll post on-base percentages well north of .350 while his cannon arm will enable him to play good defense in right field. He's ready now, and somebody just needs to find him some playing time. Please. 23 year old Will Smith (not to be confused with Giants reliever Will Smith or with rapper/actor Will Smith) slashed .264/.358/.532 at AA Tulsa before slumping to just .138/.206/.218 at Oklahoma City in 2018, totaling 20 home runs and a 112/43 strikeout to walk ratio and a composite .233/.322/.455 line over 98 games between the two levels. He's not your typical catcher because he has some speed (he has 15 stolen bases in 18 career attempts in the minors) and can actually play the infield if you ask him, but the Dodgers are perfectly content keeping him behind the plate, where he is above average defensively. While the bat was considered a little light early in his career, his big run through the AA Texas League this year has boosted his stock and bumped him from likely back-up to possible starter. The slump in AAA was enough to temper expectations a little bit, but if the Dodgers don't acquire Realmuto or another catcher before the season, Smith absolutely has a shot to take over as the starting catcher at some point in 2019 if he makes the necessary adjustments. Don't expect high batting averages, but he should be able to produce just enough. 24 year old Edwin Rios has hit and hit everywhere he has been in the minors, including a .304/.355/.482 slash line with ten home runs and a 110/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at Oklahoma City this year. The power was a bit down after he blasted 27 and 24 home runs in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and so far he has proven that his aggressive approach does not stop him from producing against high level pitching. He'll have to continue producing because he is limited to first base defensively, and while he's more likely a platoon bat than a future starter, he might get a chance to do some damage at the major league level if traded to another, shallower team. If his plate discipline holds up just enough, he should be able to slug 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages. Moving down a level, 20 year old Keibert Ruiz gives the Dodgers another high level catching prospect, and his ceiling is even higher than Smith's. In 2018, Ruiz slashed .268/.328/.401 with 12 home runs and a 33/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Tulsa, primarily showing excellent plate discipline for a kid who just turned 20 mid-season. He makes steady contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, and while he's not Will Smith behind it, he's good enough defensively that the Dodgers won't have to worry about moving him to a different position. How the Dodgers handle getting both Ruiz and Smith playing time in 2019 will be interesting, whether that means aggressively promoting one to the majors, holding one back in AA where they don't belong, or giving Smith more reps in the infield so Ruiz can get more starts behind the plate in AAA. Of course, one could find themselves traded and then this wouldn't be an issue. Ultimately, Ruiz projects as a starting catcher who can post high on-base percentages while hitting 15-20 home runs per season, and at his best he could be an All Star. 21 year old Gavin Lux had a breakout year in 2018 and has pushed himself near the top of the Dodgers' prospect rankings, having slashed .324/.399/.514 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and an 88/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. He's the complete package as a player, showing power, on-base ability, plate discipline, some speed, and the ability to stick in the infield defensively, all as a kid who just turned 21 in November. While he may be forced to move to second base from shortstop (Corey Seager's presence doesn't help Lux's chances there anyways), he has the bat to profile there and has All Star upside. 23 year old DJ Peters slashed .236/.320/.473 with 29 home runs and a 192/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games with Tulsa, showing tremendous power from a 6'6" frame and pushing his career minor league home run total to 69 over 330 games. He strikes out a ton and will need to seriously cut down on his swing and miss tendency, but he has the kind of power than will play and play well in the majors if he can get to it enough. His cannon arm offsets his so-so range in the outfield, and it will be interesting to see whether Peters can improve his approach enough to make an impact with the Dodgers. Lastly, 24 year old Errol Robinson, an Ole Miss product with a great name, slashed .247/.309/.353 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games with Tulsa, looking like a solid utility infield prospect at this point. The bat is a little bit too light to envision him starting, but he is competent enough at the plate and plays good enough defense all over the infield to stick on major league benches for a while.

High Minors Pitchers: RHP Dennis Santana, RHP Josh Sborz, RHP Dustin May, RHP Tony Gonsolin, RHP Mitchell White, RHP Yadier Alvarez, and RHP Marshall Kasowski
The Dodgers bring a ton of pitching to the table, especially in the high minors, where their army of right handers includes high ceiling arms, pitchability guys, and relievers. 22 year old Dennis Santana is a converted shortstop who posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 65/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings at AA Tulsa and AAA Oklahoma City, also reaching the major leagues for one rough start at Coors Field. A shoulder injury cut his season short in June, but his mid 90's fastball and good slider combined with improving command give him enough in his arsenal to succeed in the majors today, and assuming health, his floor at this point is as an effective big league reliever. If he can return healthy in 2019 and improve his changeup, he has a real shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter. 25 year old Josh Sborz, who played high school baseball one town away from me in Virginia at the same time I was playing junior varsity, is just about major league ready after posting a 3.88 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 71/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings at Tulsa and Oklahoma City. He's purely a relief prospect but brings a mid 90's fastball and a good slider to the table while also adding a changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he won't just leave meatballs over the plate against major league hitters. He should be up and contributing in 2019. Now, 21 year old Dustin May is easily the top pitching prospect in the system, finishing up a 2018 where he posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between High A Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa. The 6'6" Texan has the best combination of stuff and command in the system, bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that induces plenty of ground balls, a hard cutter that gives hitters a slightly different look, a big curveball, and a changeup. However, unlike most young, lanky fireballers with deep arsenals, he can actually command everything pretty well, and that enabled him to succeed with a 3.67 ERA and a 28/12 strikeout to walk ratio as a 20 year old in AA this past August. He'll need some more upper minors seasoning in 2019, but if everything breaks right, he has top of the rotation potential and will likely settle in as a mid-rotation starter even if everything doesn't break perfectly in his favor. Other pitching prospects such as Houston's Forrest Whitley, Philadelphia's Sixto Sanchez, and Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller may be more proven and more exciting, but May is in that second tier of pitching prospects just under the cream of the crop. 24 year old Tony Gonsolin dominated the minors statistically with a 10-2 record a, 2.60 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 155/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Rancho Cucamonga and Tulsa in 2018. The 6'2" Californian throws in the mid 90's and adds a full repertoire highlighted by a nasty splitter but also including a slider and a changeup, and while he lacks pinpoint command, it's tough to keep all of those pitches straight and he does. Look for Gonsolin to develop into a potential #4 starter. 24 year old Mitchell White, another California product (San Jose), followed up a breakout 2017 with a so-so 2018, posting a 4.53 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and an 88/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings at Tulsa, bringing a devastating mid 90's fastball/hard slider combination as well as a good curveball. He doesn't miss nearly as many bats as he should because his command isn't great and he tends to leave balls over the plate and get hit, so improving that command could shoot him up prospect rankings and make him a potential mid-rotation starter. However, if he doesn't (he is 24, for what it's worth), the stuff will play very well in the bullpen and he could become a high leverage reliever. 22 year old Yadier Alvarez is a very interesting prospect who posted a 4.23 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 62/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 55.1 innings between Tulsa and complex level rehab, showing premium stuff with no idea where it's going. The former bonus baby who signed out of Cuba for $16 million as a 19 year old in 2015 sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 101 in short stints, adding a great slider to miss bats. However, he has struggled with command and a groin strain in 2018 certainly didn't help, and if he can't figure out how to at least guide the ball to one part of the strike zone or another (or learn how to throw a changeup), he is probably best suited in relief. There, his control problems will be masked by the fact that he'll flirt with 100 MPH and sharpen his slider even further, but his upside is so high as a starter that the Dodgers will do everything they can to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 23 year old Marshall Kasowski had a great season in 2018 by posting a 2.09 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 111/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings at Class A Great Lakes, Rancho Cucamonga, and Tulsa, just with his sheer mid 90's velocity and high release point. His secondary stuff needs work and he's a relief-only prospect at this point, but it's hard to argue with a 42.5% strikeout rate across three levels. If the high strikeout rate isn't enough to get you interested, he survived a near-fatal car accident while in college at the University of Houston and worked his way back after transferring to West Texas A&M outside of Amarillo.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Jeren Kendall, C Connor Wong, 2B Jeter Downs, OF Starling Heredia, and C Diego Cartaya
The Dodgers aren't as deep in the low minors as they are in the upper levels when it comes to hitters, with most of the guys down there looking more like wild cards than bona fide prospects, though this group could produce some real value when it's all said and done. 22 year old Jeren Kendall had a disappointing season where he slashed .215/.300/.356 with 12 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 158/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Rancho Cucamonga, which is already a hitter-friendly context. His strengths, namely speed and outfield defense, are very apparent, as is his main weaknesses, contact. He strikes out so much (32% in 2018) that he struggles to get to what could be above average raw power in time, though fortunately his decently high walk rate (10.5%) is enough to keep him afloat for now. Kendall's defense and draft stock (first rounder, 23rd overall out of Vanderbilt in 2017) will buy his bat plenty of time, but if he doesn't start making contact soon, he'll be a first round bust. 22 year old Connor Wong, taken two rounds after Kendall in the 2017 draft out of Houston (third round, 100th overall), has gotten off to the hotter start and slashed .269/.350/.480 with 19 home runs, six stolen bases, and a 138/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at Rancho Cucamonga. Wong, like Will Smith (referenced in upper minors hitters section), is an athletic catcher who could also play the infield in a pinch, though his behind-the-plate defense is a bit behind Smith's. Wong has an average bat that produces average power and could use a little work when it comes to plate discipline, but for a catcher, that will play. He more likely has a back-up catcher or even super utility future, though improvement in the plate discipline department could improve his chances of starting one day. 20 year old Jeter Downs, acquired from the Reds in the crazy Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade, is probably the best prospect in this section after slashing .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A. He was also a member of that 2017 draft (competitive balance round, 32nd overall out of a Miami area high school) and while none of his tools stand out, he also doesn't really have any weaknesses. He shows average power and average contact ability but adds to his offensive profile with good plate discipline, and he makes up for his average infield defense with a grinder attitude, so while second base looks like his most likely long-term home, he'll make it as difficult as he can for the Dodgers to keep him off shortstop. His upside is that of a starting second baseman, though I find it unlikely that he'll end up a true impact bat. 19 year old Starling Heredia was signed out of the Dominican Republic for $2.6 million in 2015 but aside from glimpses in the rookie level Pioneer League in 2017, he hasn't lived up to his billing. In 2018, he slashed .192/.260/.332 with seven home runs and a 92/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games, mostly at Class A Great Lakes, struggling to get to his big raw power much at all. He was young for the Midwest League but not crazy young, and he'll need more time their in 2019 to hone his approach. His upside remains very high, though the risk is just as high and he has a lot of work to do to reach that ceiling. Lastly, 17 year old Diego Cartaya is yet to step on a minor league field, but the Venezuelan catcher signed for $2.5 million and gives the Dodgers yet another potential starting catcher down on the farm. He's unremarkable but competent as a hitter, and when you're a plus defensive catcher like he is, competence is all you need at the plate. That good defense will give the bat plenty of time to develop, and as a kid who will spend the whole 2019 season at 17 years old, anything could happen with the bat.

Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Edwin Uceta, RHP Gerardo Carrillo, RHP Josiah Gray, LHP John Rooney, and RHP Braydon Fisher
As with the hitters, the Dodgers have more exciting talent up near the majors ,but there is more upside in the low minors in terms of pitching than there is in terms of hitting. 21 year old Edwin Uceta finds himself right in the middle of the minor league rung, having posted a 3.89 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings at Class A Great Lakes and High A Rancho Cucamonga, though he showed much better at the lower level (3.25 ERA, 103/27 K/BB) than at the higher one (6.97 ERA, 28/12 K/BB). Uceta is six feet tall and listed at just 155 pounds, but the small right hander brings pretty good control of pretty good stuff to the table with a low 90's fastball, a decent curveball, and an advanced changeup. That combination of stuff and command proved to be too much for Class A hitters, and while High A hitters had an easier time putting it in play, just a little sharpening of that command should help him pass the level. While his small frame could lead to durability issues, he tossed 120.1 regular season innings in 2018 and added 5.2 shutout innings in his lone postseason start in High A (which would have brought his ERA down from 6.97 to 5.47). How he handles another full season, as well as tougher competition, in 2019 will be very telling as to where the 21 year old's future lies, with his current ceiling looking like a #3 or #4 starter. 20 year old Gerardo Carrillo is another little righty coming in at the same height and weight as Uceta, and he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 50/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings at Great Lakes and complex ball. His stuff is actually better than Uceta's, with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a good changeup, though both Uceta's command and durability are a bit more proven than Carrillo's at this point. His future is even tougher to predict than Uceta's, but his upside is arguably higher and a very possible breakout season in 2019 could push him way up the Dodgers' prospect rankings, assuming health. 21 year old Josiah Gray, over from the Reds with Jeter Downs in the Yasiel Puig trade, posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings in rookie ball after being drafted in the competitive balance round (72nd overall) out of Le Moyne in 2018. He's actually very new to pitching after converting from shortstop in college, and his fresh arm produces low to mid 90's fastballs that pair nicely with a good slider. He's still learning the finer aspects of pitching, such as a changeup and good command, though his control is already coming along nicely and he was very young for a college junior anyways. There is still reliever risk if he can't develop that changeup, but Gray, like Carrillo, has breakout potential for 2019 if his command develops as hoped. 22 year old John Rooney was also a product of the 2018 draft (third round, 104th overall out of Hofstra), earning his draft status with a monster junior season (8-2, 1.23 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 108/27 K/BB in 95 IP). He followed that up with a 1.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 21/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings between complex ball and Great Lakes, adding 2.2 shutout innings in the Midwest League playoffs. Rooney is a 6'5" lefty and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but his good slider and command, as well as his height, help both play up. He looks like a prototypical back-end starter at this point and could move fairly quickly in that capacity if his command holds up and he stays healthy. Lastly, the Dodgers took now-18 year old Braydon Fisher with their next pick in the 2018 draft, scooping him up out of a Houston area high school in the fourth round before he posted a 2.05 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings in complex ball. Fisher, who was young for his class with a July birthday, brings great pure stuff with a low 90's fastball and a good slider, and at 6'4" with a quick arm, he has plenty of projection. I really liked this pick on draft day and I think Fisher has the stuff and upside to profile as at least a mid-rotation starter if not a #2 guy at best. He has a lot of work to do in refining his delivery and getting more consistent with his control, but I really like the upside. He'll still be a teenager through mid-season 2020, so while he may not break out immediately, he's a name to track.

Dodgers, Reds Engage in Blockbuster

Dodgers Get

RHP Homer Bailey (2019 Age: 33): 1-14, 6.09 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB, 106.1 IP

2B Jeter Downs (2019 Age: 20-21): 13 HR, .257/.351/.402, 37 SB, 118 wRC+ at Class A

RHP Josiah Gray (2019 Age: 21): 2-2, 2.58 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB, 52.1 IP in Rookie ball

Reds Get

OF Yasiel Puig (2019 Age: 28): 23 HR, .267/.327/.494, 15 SB, 123 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR

OF Matt Kemp (2019 Age: 34): 21 HR, .290/.338/.481, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

RHP Alex Wood (2019 Age: 28): 9-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 135/40 K/BB, 151.2 IP

C Kyle Farmer (2019 Age: 28): 0 HR, .235/.312/.324, 0 SB, 76 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

$7 million

There is a lot going on in his trade, from money flying all over the place to the Reds thinking they can contend to the Dodgers potentially making a play at Bryce Harper. In terms of salary, Homer Bailey is owed $28 million on his contract but with deferred payments, not all of that will count towards the Dodgers' luxury tax. Matt Kemp is owed roughly $21.5 million, Puig will make about $11 million after arbitration, and Wood about $9 million. With the additional $7 million going from Los Angeles to Cincinnati and money being paid in different ways, the Dodgers drop something in the $15 million range in luxury tax-related salary. 

Dodgers Perspective

First and foremost, the Dodgers cut salary here. That $15-ish million that is coming out of the Dodgers' luxury taxable salary will almost certainly go to acquiring some other free agent, likely an outfielder given that they just traded two. A.J. Pollock is one option, though of course, Bryce Harper is another. Signing Harper will push the Dodgers well over the luxury tax, but if they're willing to do so and potentially take penalties, Harper would fit right in in Los Angeles. Also, with Kemp and Puig out of the outfield, the Dodgers now have room to play Alex Verdugo every day. The 22 year old outfielder is an excellent pure hitter who can get on base at high clips, and with some power and speed, he looks like he could give them a fourth straight season with a serious NL Rookie of the Year contender or winner after Corey Seager (winner in 2016), Cody Bellinger (winner in 2017), and Walker Buehler (third place in 2018).

Among the players brought in, none figure to have an immediate impact on LA; this was a salary dump. Homer Bailey, who posted a 6.09 ERA over 20 starts, will never throw a pitch for the Dodgers - he has already been released, taking his $28 million from the Dodgers and saying "thank you" (in reality, his payments will be spread out). Even with Alex Wood leaving the rotation, the Dodgers have a full rotation in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and some combination of Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, and Julio Urias. In terms of prospects, the they did pick up a couple of solid future pieces that can potentially cover them if their draft pick gets pushed down due to Harper-related luxury tax penalties. Jeter Downs, aside from having one of the coolest names in the minors (the Jeter does, in fact, come from Derek Jeter), is a scouting favorite with tools all over the place. He slashed .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A Dayton, showing an advanced feel for hitting to go along with great speed, pretty good defense, some power, and a reputation for being a hard worker. He doesn't turn 21 until July, when he'll be at High A and potentially knocking on the door to AA if the transition goes smoothly. His upside is that of a good starting second baseman, one who can get on base, make plays, and hit for some power. Josiah Gray, a 2018 draftee (72nd overall) out of Division II Le Moyne College up in Syracuse, is new to pitching as a converted shortstop, but he doesn't seem new when he's on the mound. In twelve starts at rookie level Greeneville, he posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings, his supposed "lack of feel" given his new position clearly not being a factor. He has a loose, fresh arm that tosses mid 90's fastball and an improving slider, though his changeup and command need some work if he wants to start in the majors. He has a high ceiling as a mid-rotation starter but also comes with reliever risk. And by the way, happy birthday to Josiah, who was traded on his 21st birthday.

Reds Perspective

While the Reds took on some payroll, roughly $7 million, it's hard to call this anything but a win for them. They moved Homer Bailey's un-movable contract, added three valuable players, and didn't have to give up any of their top prospects. Now, their team actually looks surprisingly decent. The outfield was extremely thin with just Jesse Winker, Philip Ervin, and Scott Schebler projected to start, and now manager David Bell can mix and match five outfielders who will all be valuable in the right matchups. In the rotation, Alex Wood gives them a reliable veteran in a group of young arms, and if Luis Castillo bounces back, it could be average. Overall, I don't think the Reds contend for the NL Central crown in what looks like a very tough division, but that doesn't mean they can't grab a Wild Card spot if a few things break in their favor. Keep in mind I haven't said anything about Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, or top prospect and likely 2019 contributor Nick Senzel. The risk is also lower for the Reds, as they can flip any of Puig, Kemp, or Wood at the trade deadline if they're not contending, recouping some of the value lost in Downs and Gray.

In terms of new Reds, Yasiel Puig is probably the headliner. Known for his flamboyant style on the field, Puig slashed .267/.327/.494 with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 2018, which is more or less in line what he has done over the past few seasons. In Cincinnati, though, those numbers will probably go up due to Great American Ballpark's small dimensions. Meanwhile, Matt Kemp had a similar year at .290/.338/.481 with 21 home runs, though he is not as likely as Puig to maintain that production given his age (34) and inconsistent production over the past few seasons. Still, Great American Ballpark will give him a boost and and even in his worst offensive season, 2017, he still slashed .276/.318/.463 with 19 home runs for the Braves. The small ballpark might even mask some of his defensive concerns, and with five average outfielders now in Cincinnati, he probably won't play every day. Kemp can platoon with Schebler in left while Puig can platoon with Jesse Winker in right. On the mound, new starter Alex Wood has been up and down over the past couple of seasons, settling in the middle in 2018 by posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 135/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 151.2 innings, and he'll have more breathing room in a less crowded Cincinnati rotation. Now paired with Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani at the top of the rotation, that's a respectable front three. The final two spots will go to some combination of Cody Reed, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano, and Robert Stephenson, which in theory should give the Reds a pretty decent rotation that could make a run at a playoff spot. Lastly, catcher Kyle Farmer caught Wood back in 2010-2012, when both were teammates at the University of Georgia, then again in 2017-2018 with the Dodgers. He'll follow Wood to Cincinnati, where he'll likely compete with fellow former SEC catcher Curt Casali (Vanderbilt 2008-2011) to back up starter Tucker Barnhart. Farmer slashed a respectable .235/.312/.324 in 39 games in LA this year, showing a light bat and an average glove. 

2018 Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

First 5 rounds: Jonathan India (1-5), Lyon Richardson (2-47), Josiah Gray (CBB-72), Bren Spillane (3-82), Mike Siani (4-109), Ryan Campbell (5-139)
Also notable: Jay Schuyler (7-199), Andrew McDonald (9-259), Michael Byrne (14-409)

The Reds made some picks I liked and some I didn't, but overall they grabbed some good talent here. There's a lot of upside in this class, and they did a good job of getting a little bit of everything, taking one player from each of the four major demographic groups (high school hitter/pitcher, college hitter/pitcher) in their first five picks. Even though I don't like some of the picks, I like the overall class here and Reds fans should be happy with the haul.

1-5: 3B Jonathan India (my rank: 12)
I had India ranked outside the top ten, but considering how much they saved in signing him, it's hard to fault the Reds for going under slot to sign the most productive hitter in college baseball. In 68 games, many of which were against college baseball's toughest competition in the SEC, the Florida Gator third baseman slashed .350/.497/.717 with 21 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 56/60 strikeout to walk ratio. College pitching, even its best, clearly has nothing on him, and he even homered off of #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Right now, despite the huge power surge and relatively high 18.7% strikeout rate during his junior season, his hit tool to me looks to be ahead of his power, and I see him as likely to post high on-base percentages (he also walked in 20% of his plate appearances). He generates his power through a quick, short swing, though it didn't show up until this season (slugged .440 and .429 in first two seasons) and it didn't show up with wood bats in the Cape Cod League (.281/.397/.398, 1 HR over two years). I'm not sure if he made whatever change that gave him more power before or after the Cape, but I'm not entirely sure all that power translates to wood bats. My guess is that India ends up hitting 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages around .370, which is All Star level. He signed for just under $5.3 million, coming in just about $650,000 under slot. In his first game in the rookie level Appalachian League, he went 0-2 but walked twice.

2-47: RHP Lyon Richardson (my rank: 89)
I'm not as big a fan of this pick. Richardson is a 6'2" high school right hander from Port St. Lucie, Florida with a live arm that can dial his fastball up to 97. The arm strength is what the Reds are buying here, as it's something you often can't teach, while the rest of his game is something you can teach. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much going for the rest of his game. I couldn't find much video before the draft, but his slider is a work in progress and his changeup is just getting started, so the Reds are gambling a lot on those secondaries. His control is average, and at 6'2", he lacks some of the projection of some of his counterparts. Still, you can't teach arm strength as much as other skills, and Richardson has it. He signed for nearly $2 million, nearly $500,000 over slot, and has allowed six runs in four innings with a 5/4 strikeout to walk ratio in the Appalachian League.

CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (my rank: 106)
Because they saved money on Gray, I don't mind this pick. He's a 6'1" righty out of DII Le Moyne College in Syracuse, but he didn't actually begin pitching until last year, his sophomore year. He was originally recruited as a light hitting shortstop, but Le Moyne liked his arm strength and struck gold. In 13 starts this year, he went 11-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio, completely overwhelming low level DII competition. He throws low to mid 90's and can easily blow it by DII hitters, and his slider is steadily improving. His command is coming together, but it's still a work in progress, and his changeup is virtually non-existent like Richardson's. He's very raw, especially for a college pitcher, but he is one of the youngest college juniors in the class and doesn't turn 21 until December, which buys him some time. He signed for $772,500, which is $65,200 below slot, and he has allowed three runs in 11 innings (2.45 ERA) on five hits, two walks, and 11 strikeouts so far in the Appalachian League.

3-82: OF Bren Spillane (unranked)
I was very aware of Spillane before the draft, but chose not to include him in the rankings because I'm not his biggest fan. Like India, he put up exceptional numbers this year, but I just don't think his game translates well to pro ball. Through 50 games for Illinois, he slashed .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio against pretty good Big 10 competition. Clearly, college pitching has nothing on him, though he didn't get the chance to face much of college baseball's best (Indiana's Jonathan Stiever, #94 on my list, was probably the best arm he faced, going 1-5 with a double and a pair of walks in two games). The reason I don't think his power will play up is that a) his swing is long, and b) he doesn't have much bat speed. He'll have a tough time catching up to the high heat he'll see in the upper levels of the minors. I also see his power coming more from strength than from bat speed, and it will be tougher to muscle balls out with wood bats than with metal unless he can barrel up fastballs consistently and use their velocity. Despite being 6'5" and big, he actually can run a little, meaning he won't be a liability in a corner outfield spot. He signed for $597,500, which is $118,500 below slot, and he is slashing .261/.397/.500 with a pair of home runs and a 25/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 16 games in the rookie level Pioneer League.

4-109: OF Mike Siani (my rank: 34)
Obviously, this is a great pick for the Reds. He's universally regarded as at least a second or third round talent, but fell to the fourth round due to signability, and the Reds were able to grab him for a large over slot bonus. Personally, I'm higher than most on him, as you can tell by the ranking. He's a high school outfielder from Philadelphia, one who obviously doesn't get the opportunity to practice year round like his southern counterparts. He's mostly projection at this point, though at 6'1" and sturdily built, it's more skill projection than physical projection. Siani's main value is on defense, as he can stick in center field with well above average arm strength and range. He's more of a project on offense, where he is just an average hitter, but I think he can improve. He gets the bat on the ball enough, and he has done a good job in adding loft to his swing, so I think once he puts it together and can start barreling the ball up and turning on pitches, he could be a 15-20 homer bat with a high enough on-base percentage to give him the chance to steal 20 bases per season. That doesn't sound extremely exciting as a ceiling, but when you combine that with great defense, it's a very valuable player any team would like to have. He signed for $2 million, which was nearly $1.5 million above slot, and he has two singles in seven at bats with one strikeout in his first two games in the Appalachian League.

9-259: RHP Andrew McDonald (unranked)
McDonald was a fifth year senior at Virginia Tech, one who I got to watch plenty over the years. He's a 6'6" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a pretty good breaking ball, though inconsistency in both his velocity and his command have kept him from posting good numbers at Tech. This past year was his best as a Hokie, as he went 1-8 with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54.2 innings. If pro coaching can help him get his delivery under control, as he often struggled to repeat it in Blacksburg, he could even start at the major league level, but he will take a lot of work and turns 24 over the offseason. Essentially, if he responds to mechanical changes quickly, he's a good pick, but if he takes time to get everything together, there isn't a lot of time on his prospect clock. Interestingly, the Reds also spent their 9th round pick on a Virginia Tech pitcher last year with lefty Packy Naughton, though he was the 257th pick while McDonald was 259th. McDonald signed for $7,500, which is $155,100 below slot. Through six appearances in the Pioneer League, he has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 7.1 innings (7.36 ERA) on eight hits, eight walks, and nine strikeouts.

Others: 5th rounder Ryan Campbell was a senior out of the University of Illinois-Chicago, finishing the year 7-3 with a 1.53 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. The 6'3" righty got his outs by commanding his pitches and inducing weak contact, and he'll need to continue to have sharp command to make it as a starter in the minor league system. 7th rounder Jay Schuyler was the University of San Diego's catcher, slashing .342/.414/.493 with seven home runs and a 30/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 55 games. I haven't heard anything about his defense but he has an advanced approach at the plate and puts the ball in play regularly, striking out in just 12% of his plate appearances while posting an OPS over .900. 14th rounder Michael Byrne is a great day three find, and while he required the Reds to spend $132,500 against their bonus pool, he could really help them soon. Byrne was the relief ace for Florida, posting a 1.61 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 64/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, often going more than one inning in relief. He was also excellent on the Cape (0.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13/4 K/BB), and he's a guy who should move quickly through the minors. Byrne is a 6'2" righty who throws his fastball around 90, which is very slow for a supposedly elite reliever, but he gets away with it due to its movement, deception, and his command of it. When it's moving and he places it right where he wants to around the zone, it's tough to square up, but his command will have to remain tight if he wants to make it to the majors.