The Cardinals develop talent very well and have maintained a strong farm system even through a long run of contention, though that system may be down just a hair right now. The graduations of Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, and Jack Flaherty and trades of Carson Kelly, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Oscar Mercado, among others, have left the system thinner than usual as they haven't really had as much impact talent as usual coming through to back it up. The fact that back to back first round picks (both 23rd overall) Nick Plummer (2015) and Delvin Perez (2016) haven't panned out as hoped so far hurts, and most of the talent is concentrated in AA and AAA. Of course, I say "as much impact talent" because the Cardinals still have plenty of prospects breaking through, and the system is still quite average even during a down period. They have their typical, if a bit thin, army of useful starting pitchers as well as plenty of competent hitters that should be at least useful role players, though they're a bit short on impact hitters after Nolan Gorman.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis RedBirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, Short Season State College Spikes, Rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Alex Reyes, RHP Dakota Hudson, RHP Daniel Poncedeleon, LHP Genesis Cabrera, RHP Ryan Helsley, and RHP Jacob Woodford
While the bottom of the Cardinals' farm system doesn't have much pitching depth, they have a nice array of major league ready or near-major league ready arms that have a diverse set of outlooks. 24 year old Alex Reyes has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a back injury in 2018 have slowed him down just as he reached the majors. However, he's just so talented that he's still the top prospect in a pretty decent Cardinals system. Over 23 minor league innings across four levels this year, he did not allow a run and put just 14 people on base for a 0.61 WHIP, striking out 44 to just seven walks. He also threw four shutout innings in the majors, striking out two and walking two and giving himself 27 shutout innings overall. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also dropping a hammer curveball and a pretty good changeup, stuff which is good enough to miss plenty of bats even at the major league level. While his command isn't great, the stuff is so good that he can be a #3 starter even with mediocre command, and if his command can take a step forward with consistent, healthy innings under his belt, he could be an ace and be one soon. 24 year old Dakota Hudson is also on the cusp of the majors, though he's a very different pitcher. The 2016 first round pick (34th overall) out of Mississippi State effectively handled AAA Memphis this year, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 87/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings before a moderately successful MLB stint (2.63 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 27.1 IP). He throws a mid 90's fastball with good sink as well as a very good cutter, though the rest of his arsenal is just average. Because he has decent enough command and those two pitches are so good, he can crack it as a starter up at AAA, but it remains to be seen whether he will last as a starter long term in the majors, where he'll need to be more precise with his command than he has been. Even if he doesn't develop any further and remains as is, Hudson would make a very good reliever, so the floor is high. 26 year old Daniel Poncedeleon broke through this year, going 9-4 with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at Memphis and then posting a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings in St. Louis. He's kind of a pitcher where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, with his low to mid 90's sinker headlining a pretty average arsenal that he commands decently well. His 2017 season ended with a line drive off the head, but he bounced back in 2018 and has over-performed everywhere. His scouting report says #5 starter/long reliever, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, he could stick in the rotation for a long time. 22 year old Genesis Cabrera will continue to get noticed due to his fantastic name, but he's also an important prospect after coming over in the Tommy Pham trade in July. He posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 148/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.1 innings, mostly at AA (plus two innings at AAA), showing one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the minors but lacking refinement elsewhere in his game. He ends up being more hittable than he should be when he falls behind in the count and when hitters don't have to worry about a good changeup, but the Cardinals do very well with refining pitchers and more time in the St. Louis system could help him break out into the possible mid-rotation starter he could be. Having just turned 22, he has plenty of time to master AAA and get ready for the majors. 24 year old Ryan Helsley has quietly handled the minors and, like Poncedeleon, seems to over-achieve everywhere he pitches. This year, he posted a 3.97 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 82/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings at AA Springfield, Memphis, and 2.2 rehab innings in complex ball. He throws a little harder than Poncedeleon but otherwise has a similarly average skill set, but his natural feel for the game has helped him reach the highest level of the minors. In 2019, he has a chance to prove he can start in the majors despite a relieverish profile. Lastly, 22 year old Jacob Woodford flew through the low minors after being drafted in the competitive balance round (39th overall) out of high school in Tampa, but he struggled for the first time in his career upon reaching the high minors this year. Over 28 starts, he had a 4.90 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 101/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 innings at Springfield and Memphis, much different than his 3.31 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2016 and his 3.10 mark at High A Palm Beach in 2017. He throws in the low 90's with decent secondary stuff and enough command to make it work, and as the youngest pitcher in this section (by 18 days over Cabrera), he has plenty of time to make the adjustments.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Seth Elledge, RHP Griffin Roberts, and LHP Steven Gingery
There is not nearly as much depth in the low minors for the Cardinals as there is in the high minors, with some good upside but nothing elite. 21 year old Junior Fernandez throws in the upper 90's with a good changeup, but he lacks a good breaking ball and when he falls behind in the count, hitters can sit on his fastball. This past year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, not missing nearly as many bats as he should. He's likely a reliever at this point, but if he brings in his command just a little, he may not need to develop a good breaking ball to be successful in the majors. 22 year old Seth Elledge, who came over from Seattle for Sam Tuivailala in July, is a more traditional relief prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider/changeup set, which he commands better than Fernandez. In 2018, he posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings between High A Modesto (Seattle) and AA Springfield. His ceiling is not as high as Fernandez's, but he is a more complete pitcher at this point and has a better chance to crack the majors and do so successfully. 22 year old Griffin Roberts was a competitive balance pick (43rd overall) out of Wake Forest this year, posting a 5.59 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between complex ball and High A Palm Beach. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a fantastic slider, one that on its own should get him up through the minors, though he'll have to improve his command and possibly add a tick to his fastball to become an elite reliever. The Cardinals believe he still has a chance at starting, in which case he'll have to continue to develop his changeup and there will be even more pressure on his command. Because he will miss the first 50 games of the season with a drug suspension and he's already old for his draft class (he'll be almost 23 when he's ready to return), I'd just stick him in the bullpen and let him move quickly through the minors. Lastly, 21 year old Steven Gingery was a fourth round pick out of Texas Tech this year, though he's a very different pitcher. He may get a late start on his 2019 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he has a good chance of returning early in the season. He's a 6'1" lefty who doesn't throw hard or have a good curveball, but he lives on his excellent changeup and commands his pitches very well. Gingery doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the Cardinals will try to help him sharpen his stuff just enough to move up through the minors as a back-end starter and get him to the major league mound fairly quickly once he's healthy. With his command and his swing and miss changeup, a little velocity or a sharper breaking ball could go a long way.
High Minors Hitters: C Andrew Knizner, OF Randy Arozarena, OF Justin Williams, OF Lane Thomas, 2B Max Schrock, SS Edmundo Sosa, 2B Ramon Urias, and SS Tommy Edman
As with the pitchers, most of the Cardinals' impact talent on offense is concentrated towards the top of the minor leagues. 23 year old Andrew Knizner is the one impact offensive prospect high in the minors, and Cardinals fans should be excited. Over 94 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, he slashed .313/.368/.430 with seven home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio, bringing his career minor league slash line to .310/.373/.460 over 242 games. He has hit everywhere he has been, making consistent hard contact even against advanced pitching and while he doesn't hit for too much power, he has enough pop in his bat to where he could start as a catcher once Yadier Molina relinquishes the job, if he ever does. While he's not a fantastic defender, he's good enough to where he's not a liability back there and with his bat, he'll at the very least be a very competent backup to Molina. 23 year old outfielders Randy Arozarena and Justin Williams have similar outlooks, both being toolsy outfielders on the verge of cracking the majors as good backups or solid regulars. Arozarena slashed .274/.359/.433 with 12 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and an 84/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between Springfield and Memphis, though he was better at the lower level (.396/.455/.681) than at the higher level (.232/.328/.348). Williams, meanwhile, slashed .252/.307/.379 with 11 home runs and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games just in AAA, also grounding out against Adam Conley in his only major league at bat. Arozarena is faster and a bit better of a defender, though Williams has a better track record at the plate and is more advanced for his age. Both have marginal power, though the Cardinals do well with these guys and both could be important bats. Expect one to end up starting at some point in a Stephen Piscotty capacity, while the other should end up a good fourth outfielder. 23 year old Lane Thomas had a great year statistically, slashing .264/.333/.489 with 21 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 134/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, his combination of power, speed, and defense giving him some interesting upside. He's a breakout prospect who never hit more than eight home runs in a season prior to this year, so if he can maintain that power breakout next year, he could be in the rookie outfield mix with Arozarena and Williams. This group of four infielders gives the Cardinals great depth at every position, and 24 year old Max Schrock has the best bat of the four. The former South Carolina Gamecock was traded from Washington to Oakland for Marc Rzepczynski then to St. Louis for Stephen Piscotty, though he had his worst offensive season this year by slashing .249/.296/.331 with four home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Memphis (down from .321/.379/.422 in AA in 2017). Just 5'8", he's a scrappy player who is just a decent defender at second base but one who plays hard and makes consistent contact, striking out in just 7.9% of his plate appearances this year. 22 year old Edmundo Sosa is the best defender, though he can still swing it a bit, having slashed .270/.313/.420 with 12 home runs and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Springfield and Memphis this year. His bat is probably too light to start, as he lacks power and doesn't get on base like Schrock, but his defense should make him a useful utility man. Lastly, 24 year old Ramon Urias and 23 year old Tommy Edman are utility prospects with no standout tools who just do a little bit of everything. Urias, recently signed out of the Mexican League, slashed .300/.356/.516 with 13 home runs and a 58/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between Springfield and Memphis, hitting better at the lower level (.333/.406/.589) than the upper level (.261/.291/.430). Edman hit .301/.354/.402 with seven home runs and 30 stolen bases across the same two levels, showing more speed and less power. Both, along with Schrock and Sosa, will be in the utility infield mix in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Luken Baker, 3B Elehuris Montero, OF Conner Capel, OF Dylan Carlson, and SS Delvin Perez
Down at the bottom of the St. Louis system, there's not much depth but there are a couple of guys who could be real difference makers. 18 year old Nolan Gorman might be the best prospect in the system, having just been drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of high school in Phoenix and destroying the Appalachian League in his debut. He slashed .350/.443/.664 with 11 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games with rookie level Johnson City in the Appy League, then slashed .202/.280/.426 with six more home runs and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games after an aggressive promotion to Class A Peoria, totaling 17 home runs and a .291/.380/.570 line over 63 games. He has huge raw power that could produce 40 home runs per season in the majors, but his long swing was thought to be a potential impediment to making contact in pro baseball. So far, that has not been an issue at all, and even though 6'1" is a bit small for a slugger, Gorman has middle of the order upside for the Cardinals if he can continue to make contact against better and better pitching. His defense at third base is just average and may force a move to first base, but the bat will play. 21 year old Luken Baker was a second rounder (75th overall) in the same draft out of TCU, and he got off to a similarly hot start by slashing .319/.386/.460 with four home runs and a 35/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and Peoria. The 6'4", 265 pound slugger has a very advanced bat that should move through the minors fairly quickly, though he has more 20-30 home run power than the 40 homer potential you'd expect given his size. He's limited to first base defensively but if he hits as expected, he should be able to work his way up to a starting spot or at least an important bench spot quickly. 20 year old Elehuris Montero had a breakout year in the mid minors this year, slashing .315/.371/.504 with 16 home runs and a 103/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Peoria and High A Palm Beach. He has power from the right side that he began to tap into in 2018, and he's a pretty advanced hitter for his age. He's not a great defender at third base but he has a great arm and may be able to stick there. If his power continues to grow, he could have another big season and push himself from an interesting upside play to a legitimate impact prospect. 21 year old Conner Capel and 20 year old Dylan Carlson give the Cardinals two more outfield bats to follow that could develop into nice role players in the future, with Capel coming over from the Indians in July and Carlson being a first round pick (33rd overall) out of high school near Sacramento in 2016. Capel slashed .257/.341/.376 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 102/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A, while Carlson slashed .246/.348/.390 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between Class A and High A. Both have marginal bats with good approaches and some present power, though neither has enough punch in their bats at this point to profile as more than future fourth outfielders. They're both good defenders, though Capel is faster, but Carlson has the slightly better bat and probably has the higher upside. Lastly, 20 year old Delvin Perez was the Cardinals' first round pick (23rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico in 2016, but the once-elite draft prospect has not panned out as planned so far. In 2018, he slashed .213/.301/.272 with one home run, eight stolen bases, and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in short season State College, continuing to struggle in his transition to pro ball and leaving the Cardinals wondering what kind of prospect they have. He's still a great defender at shortstop and will continue to get chances due to both that and his draft pedigree, but he has to start hitting at some point or he'll just end up organizational filler.
Showing posts with label Luken Baker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Luken Baker. Show all posts
Friday, December 28, 2018
Friday, July 13, 2018
2018 Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals
First 5 rounds: Nolan Gorman (1-19), Griffin Roberts (CBA-43), Luken Baker (2-75), Mateo Gil (3-95), Steven Gingery (4-123), Nick Dunn (5-153)
Also notable: Lars Nootbaar (8-243), Brandon Riley (14-423), Connor Coward (26-783)
The Cardinals always seem to draft well with too many homegrown stars to count, and this year looks no different. They got some really good players, especially for where their picks were, and it wouldn't surprise me if a couple turned out to be stars. They drafted high schoolers in the first and third rounds but otherwise stuck with college players, not taking a third high schooler until the 22nd round. They also split it up between hitters and pitchers, leaning a little heavier on the hitters in the first ten rounds but overall striking good balance. With the hitters, they did seem to focus on power early, and this draft could fill out the middle of their lineup a few years down the road. As always, a good job by St. Louis.
1-19: 3B Nolan Gorman (my rank: 13)
Gorman is a high schooler from the Phoenix suburbs, showing perhaps the best raw power in the entire high school class. The left handed hitting third baseman generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball a mile, though the rest of his game could use some work. He takes some time to get his hands going and his swing is somewhat long, but his hands are so quick once they're moving that he shouldn't have too much trouble in the low minors. The Cardinals will surely work with him on shortening that swing in order to help him catch up to quicker fastballs in the mid and upper minors. At this point, he struggles a bit with breaking balls and looks a bit uncomfortable in the box against better pitching, so the Cardinals do have their work cut out for them. On defense, he could stick at third base, but first base is also a possibility. That's not the most glowing report, but Gorman's power is so great that it makes up for all of that and his upside is that of a 30-40 homer per year slugger. He signed for just over $3.2 million, right at slot, and he's slashing an excellent .313/.432/.597 with six home runs and a 16/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games after an aggressive assignment to the rookie level Appalachian League.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (my rank: 55)
This is a pick I wouldn't be thrilled with if I were a Cardinals fan, but Roberts does have a lot of upside for a college arm. The 6'3" righty out of Wake Forest had an interesting college career, pitching great as a reliever in 2017 (2.19 ERA, 80/32 K/BB, 53 innings) but regressing a little as a starter this year (3.82 ERA, 130/38 K/BB, 96.2 innings). As a starter, his fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and he throws an excellent put-away slider and a decent changeup, though that fastball bumps into the upper 90's as a reliever. He does throw with some effort and his command isn't always there, but he continued striking guys out in bunches even with the transition to the rotation this year. He also dominated the Cape Cod League as a starter (1.97 ERA, 35/6 K/BB, 32 innings), and he just may be able to stick as a starter. He'll have to tighten that command and improve that changeup, but the upside is high here for a college pitcher. His age is a minor negative, as he already turned 22 in June and he is really the age of a young college senior. He signed for a little under $1.7 million, right at slot.
2-75: 1B Luken Baker (my rank: 51)
Baker is a slugger, plain and simple, and if he hadn't suffered a pair of freak, season-ending injuries in the past two seasons, I think he could have easily gone in the top 50 picks. Baker was one of the top recruits to make it to college for the 2016 season, setting the world on fire as a freshman both on the mound (3-1, 1.70 ERA, 41/16 K/BB, 47.2 innings) and at the plate (.379/.483/.577, 11 HR, 39/45 K/BB) at TCU. The Horned Frogs slugger gave up pitching after his freshman year, though he never matched his freshman numbers. This year he was slashing .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs and an 18/24 strikeout to walk ratio before going down with a broken leg 31 games into the season, a year after he had ended his sophomore season with a fractured arm. Baker is a huge, huge person, listed at 6'4", 265 pounds, and he looks it. As you'd expect, he's a bottom of the scale runner and isn't a great fielder either at first base, though he does have a cannon arm. His head jerks a bit when he swings, though the rest of his swing is clean, and he manages the strike zone exceptionally well for such a burly hitter (12.9% K rate, 17.1% walk rate). I would like to see just a little more power given his lack of defensive value, though I'm confident the Cardinals will bring it out of him. He signed for $800,000, which was a whole $400 over slot, and he is 1-4 with a home run, a strikeout, and a walk in his first two games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-95: SS Mateo Gil (unranked)
Gil is a high schooler from the Fort Worth area, showing power potential as well as the possibility of being able to play shortstop. He'll need a lot of work, as he swings and misses a lot and has not proven he can make his power play to the opposite field, something pitchers will take advantage of immediately. If the Cardinals can improve his pitch recognition and clean up his swing, Gil could be a dynamic contributor for the team. He signed for $900,000, which is $312,400 above slot, and he's slashing .254/.371/.288 with no home runs and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games in the Gulf Coast League.
4-123: LHP Steven Gingery (my rank: 70)
This is a great buy-low get for the Cardinals. Gingery was absolutely lights out at Texas Tech in 2017 (10-1, 1.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 107/29 K/BB, 91 innings) but blew out his elbow in his first start of 2018 and needed Tommy John surgery. When healthy, the 6'2" lefty throws his fastball right around 90 but he commands it well and gets hitters out with possibly the best changeup in a draft stacked with changeups. He lacks much projection, but if he can make his fastball and curveball tick up just a little, he should have no trouble stepping into a major league rotation. The fact that he's very young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September also buys him time to return from surgery and still be on track. He signed for $825,000, which is $378,100 above slot.
26-783: RHP Connor Coward (unranked)
I watched plenty of Connor Coward at Virginia Tech, where he just finished his senior year 2-7 with a 5.19 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 76/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 78 innings for the Hokies. He never put up big numbers, with his 4.75 ERA in 2017 marking his career best in Blacksburg, but he does have the chance to make something of himself as a minor leaguer. He's fairly inconsistent but throws his fastball in the low 90's and when his curve is working, it's a pretty good pitch. His delivery is easy, though he could use to take a step forward with his average command, and he has no trouble maintaining his stuff deep into starts. However, because his stuff is fringy overall, he'll be best off going to the bullpen where it can play up and give him a shot at major league middle or long relief. He signed for an undisclosed amount and is currently dominating the Gulf Coast League, tossing eleven innings and allowing one run (0.82 ERA) on five hits, no walks, and 13 strikeouts while averaging nearly three innings per appearance.
Un-drafted Free Agent Signing: C Joe Freiday (unranked)
The Cardinals also picked up Coward's battery mate, catcher Joe Freiday, as an un-drafted free agent. Freiday has always been a fringe-prospect, showing great tools but never quite putting it together on the field. Standing 6'3" and weighing 240 pounds, he's got plenty of power, but his aggressive approach leads to too many swings and misses. He struggled mightily on the Cape after his sophomore year in 2016 (.105/.105/.316, 1 HR, 11/0 K/BB) and hit mediocre as a junior in NCAA play in 2017 (.225/.315/.423, 8 HR, 53/13 K/BB). As a senior this year, his power dipped, and he finished at .250/.338/.400 with five home runs and a 33/15 strikeout to walk ratio. What stands out to me is the improvement in his plate discipline, which was visible if you watched him play, as he dropped his strikeout rate from 32.3% to a more reasonable 20.6% while upping his walk rate from 7.9% to 9.4%. He chased fewer pitches and was more willing to go the other way, but he can really turn on balls on the inner half. On defense, he moves well and can block his share of balls in the dirt, but he really stands out for his excellent arm strength that generated consistent pop times below 2.00. He'll have a long road to the bigs because even with the improvement in his plate discipline, he still swings and misses far too much and will be exploited by pro pitching. So far in the Gulf Coast League, he's slashing .286/.500/.286 with no extra base hits and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio in four games.
Others: 5th rounder Nick Dunn comes from the University of Maryland, where he finished his junior year slashing .330/.419/.561 with ten home runs and a 19/32 strikeout to walk ratio. He plays second base and uses his very advanced approach at the plate and clean swing to help his average offensive tools play up. He also performed very well on the Cape over two years (.321/.394/.415, 2 HR, 35/34 K/BB in 81 games) and should be able to get to the majors quickly. He doesn't have too much upside but could be a fringe-starter who focuses on on-base ability. 8th rounder Lars Nootbaar comes from the University of Southern California, where he was much better as a sophomore (.304/.416/.473, 5 HR, 32/35 K/BB) than as a junior (.249/.357/.373, 6 HR, 37/34 K/BB). He's a contact hitting outfielder with good plate discipline that will help him transition well to pro ball, but the ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder, basically a cheaper Nick Dunn at the plate. 14th rounder Brandon Riley, a utility man from UNC, was also better as a sophomore (.317/.406/.496, 7 HR, 34/37 K/BB) than as a junior (.284/.386/.416, 5 HR, 47/45 K/BB), upping both his strikeout and walk rates this year. He has some speed and will provide more defensive value than Dunn and Nootbaar, and he should be a high floor, low ceiling prospect for the Cards that could get to the majors quickly.
Also notable: Lars Nootbaar (8-243), Brandon Riley (14-423), Connor Coward (26-783)
The Cardinals always seem to draft well with too many homegrown stars to count, and this year looks no different. They got some really good players, especially for where their picks were, and it wouldn't surprise me if a couple turned out to be stars. They drafted high schoolers in the first and third rounds but otherwise stuck with college players, not taking a third high schooler until the 22nd round. They also split it up between hitters and pitchers, leaning a little heavier on the hitters in the first ten rounds but overall striking good balance. With the hitters, they did seem to focus on power early, and this draft could fill out the middle of their lineup a few years down the road. As always, a good job by St. Louis.
1-19: 3B Nolan Gorman (my rank: 13)
Gorman is a high schooler from the Phoenix suburbs, showing perhaps the best raw power in the entire high school class. The left handed hitting third baseman generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball a mile, though the rest of his game could use some work. He takes some time to get his hands going and his swing is somewhat long, but his hands are so quick once they're moving that he shouldn't have too much trouble in the low minors. The Cardinals will surely work with him on shortening that swing in order to help him catch up to quicker fastballs in the mid and upper minors. At this point, he struggles a bit with breaking balls and looks a bit uncomfortable in the box against better pitching, so the Cardinals do have their work cut out for them. On defense, he could stick at third base, but first base is also a possibility. That's not the most glowing report, but Gorman's power is so great that it makes up for all of that and his upside is that of a 30-40 homer per year slugger. He signed for just over $3.2 million, right at slot, and he's slashing an excellent .313/.432/.597 with six home runs and a 16/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games after an aggressive assignment to the rookie level Appalachian League.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (my rank: 55)
This is a pick I wouldn't be thrilled with if I were a Cardinals fan, but Roberts does have a lot of upside for a college arm. The 6'3" righty out of Wake Forest had an interesting college career, pitching great as a reliever in 2017 (2.19 ERA, 80/32 K/BB, 53 innings) but regressing a little as a starter this year (3.82 ERA, 130/38 K/BB, 96.2 innings). As a starter, his fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and he throws an excellent put-away slider and a decent changeup, though that fastball bumps into the upper 90's as a reliever. He does throw with some effort and his command isn't always there, but he continued striking guys out in bunches even with the transition to the rotation this year. He also dominated the Cape Cod League as a starter (1.97 ERA, 35/6 K/BB, 32 innings), and he just may be able to stick as a starter. He'll have to tighten that command and improve that changeup, but the upside is high here for a college pitcher. His age is a minor negative, as he already turned 22 in June and he is really the age of a young college senior. He signed for a little under $1.7 million, right at slot.
2-75: 1B Luken Baker (my rank: 51)
Baker is a slugger, plain and simple, and if he hadn't suffered a pair of freak, season-ending injuries in the past two seasons, I think he could have easily gone in the top 50 picks. Baker was one of the top recruits to make it to college for the 2016 season, setting the world on fire as a freshman both on the mound (3-1, 1.70 ERA, 41/16 K/BB, 47.2 innings) and at the plate (.379/.483/.577, 11 HR, 39/45 K/BB) at TCU. The Horned Frogs slugger gave up pitching after his freshman year, though he never matched his freshman numbers. This year he was slashing .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs and an 18/24 strikeout to walk ratio before going down with a broken leg 31 games into the season, a year after he had ended his sophomore season with a fractured arm. Baker is a huge, huge person, listed at 6'4", 265 pounds, and he looks it. As you'd expect, he's a bottom of the scale runner and isn't a great fielder either at first base, though he does have a cannon arm. His head jerks a bit when he swings, though the rest of his swing is clean, and he manages the strike zone exceptionally well for such a burly hitter (12.9% K rate, 17.1% walk rate). I would like to see just a little more power given his lack of defensive value, though I'm confident the Cardinals will bring it out of him. He signed for $800,000, which was a whole $400 over slot, and he is 1-4 with a home run, a strikeout, and a walk in his first two games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-95: SS Mateo Gil (unranked)
Gil is a high schooler from the Fort Worth area, showing power potential as well as the possibility of being able to play shortstop. He'll need a lot of work, as he swings and misses a lot and has not proven he can make his power play to the opposite field, something pitchers will take advantage of immediately. If the Cardinals can improve his pitch recognition and clean up his swing, Gil could be a dynamic contributor for the team. He signed for $900,000, which is $312,400 above slot, and he's slashing .254/.371/.288 with no home runs and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games in the Gulf Coast League.
4-123: LHP Steven Gingery (my rank: 70)
This is a great buy-low get for the Cardinals. Gingery was absolutely lights out at Texas Tech in 2017 (10-1, 1.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 107/29 K/BB, 91 innings) but blew out his elbow in his first start of 2018 and needed Tommy John surgery. When healthy, the 6'2" lefty throws his fastball right around 90 but he commands it well and gets hitters out with possibly the best changeup in a draft stacked with changeups. He lacks much projection, but if he can make his fastball and curveball tick up just a little, he should have no trouble stepping into a major league rotation. The fact that he's very young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September also buys him time to return from surgery and still be on track. He signed for $825,000, which is $378,100 above slot.
26-783: RHP Connor Coward (unranked)
I watched plenty of Connor Coward at Virginia Tech, where he just finished his senior year 2-7 with a 5.19 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 76/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 78 innings for the Hokies. He never put up big numbers, with his 4.75 ERA in 2017 marking his career best in Blacksburg, but he does have the chance to make something of himself as a minor leaguer. He's fairly inconsistent but throws his fastball in the low 90's and when his curve is working, it's a pretty good pitch. His delivery is easy, though he could use to take a step forward with his average command, and he has no trouble maintaining his stuff deep into starts. However, because his stuff is fringy overall, he'll be best off going to the bullpen where it can play up and give him a shot at major league middle or long relief. He signed for an undisclosed amount and is currently dominating the Gulf Coast League, tossing eleven innings and allowing one run (0.82 ERA) on five hits, no walks, and 13 strikeouts while averaging nearly three innings per appearance.
Un-drafted Free Agent Signing: C Joe Freiday (unranked)
The Cardinals also picked up Coward's battery mate, catcher Joe Freiday, as an un-drafted free agent. Freiday has always been a fringe-prospect, showing great tools but never quite putting it together on the field. Standing 6'3" and weighing 240 pounds, he's got plenty of power, but his aggressive approach leads to too many swings and misses. He struggled mightily on the Cape after his sophomore year in 2016 (.105/.105/.316, 1 HR, 11/0 K/BB) and hit mediocre as a junior in NCAA play in 2017 (.225/.315/.423, 8 HR, 53/13 K/BB). As a senior this year, his power dipped, and he finished at .250/.338/.400 with five home runs and a 33/15 strikeout to walk ratio. What stands out to me is the improvement in his plate discipline, which was visible if you watched him play, as he dropped his strikeout rate from 32.3% to a more reasonable 20.6% while upping his walk rate from 7.9% to 9.4%. He chased fewer pitches and was more willing to go the other way, but he can really turn on balls on the inner half. On defense, he moves well and can block his share of balls in the dirt, but he really stands out for his excellent arm strength that generated consistent pop times below 2.00. He'll have a long road to the bigs because even with the improvement in his plate discipline, he still swings and misses far too much and will be exploited by pro pitching. So far in the Gulf Coast League, he's slashing .286/.500/.286 with no extra base hits and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio in four games.
Others: 5th rounder Nick Dunn comes from the University of Maryland, where he finished his junior year slashing .330/.419/.561 with ten home runs and a 19/32 strikeout to walk ratio. He plays second base and uses his very advanced approach at the plate and clean swing to help his average offensive tools play up. He also performed very well on the Cape over two years (.321/.394/.415, 2 HR, 35/34 K/BB in 81 games) and should be able to get to the majors quickly. He doesn't have too much upside but could be a fringe-starter who focuses on on-base ability. 8th rounder Lars Nootbaar comes from the University of Southern California, where he was much better as a sophomore (.304/.416/.473, 5 HR, 32/35 K/BB) than as a junior (.249/.357/.373, 6 HR, 37/34 K/BB). He's a contact hitting outfielder with good plate discipline that will help him transition well to pro ball, but the ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder, basically a cheaper Nick Dunn at the plate. 14th rounder Brandon Riley, a utility man from UNC, was also better as a sophomore (.317/.406/.496, 7 HR, 34/37 K/BB) than as a junior (.284/.386/.416, 5 HR, 47/45 K/BB), upping both his strikeout and walk rates this year. He has some speed and will provide more defensive value than Dunn and Nootbaar, and he should be a high floor, low ceiling prospect for the Cards that could get to the majors quickly.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 First Basemen
Major league first baseman were often drafted at different positions, such as the outfield, third base, or even catcher, so the top first baseman from this draft could end up being a guy like Alec Bohm (3B), Nolan Gorman (3B), or Trevor Larnach (OF). For these guys at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, there is a lot of pressure on the bat, and they will have to hit to stay relevant. Fortunately, there is a ton of power to go around in this class, and they all also have patient approaches in common to pad their on-base percentages.
1. Triston Casas (American Heritage HS, FL)
American Heritage High School in South Florida has produced tons of talent, most notably Eric Hosmer, and seems to have a top five round pick every year. This year, Triston Casas leads the way as the arguably the top high school prospect in all of South Florida, showing some of the best power in the entire draft class. He generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball as far as anybody in this class, and he combines that power with extreme patience at the plate which could lead to on-base percentages creeping towards .400 in the majors. However, contact could hold him back, as he has a very long swing which could struggle to catch up to quality fastballs, though it hasn't yet. He's a high risk, high reward hitter with a lot to prove and a lot to potentially accomplish. He's committed to the University of Miami and will likely go in the first round.
2. Seth Beer (Clemson)
One of the most interesting bats in all of college baseball, Beer put up a sensational freshman season at Clemson in 2016 by slashing .369/.535/.700 with 18 home runs in 62 games, walking more than twice as often as he struck out and winning the Dick Howser Trophy as the best player in college baseball. However, teams found holes in his swing during his sophomore year and his slash line dropped to .298/.478/.606 with 16 home runs in 63 games, still excellent but not quite what he did as a freshman. It's back up to .308/.464/.656 with 22 home runs in 62 games this year, but the shine from his freshman season has worn off a bit. As a bottom of the scale defender and runner who really would fit better at DH than at first base, his bat needs to carry him, and it carries too many questions for him to find himself in the first round. He has not hit particularly well with wood bats, and there is some fear that quality pitching can find the holes in his swing, which isn't the cleanest, with regularity. Still, there is enough upside in the bat that he likely will not fall out of the top fifty picks.
3. Luken Baker (Texas Christian)
Baker, like Beer, set the world on fire with an excellent freshman season in 2016, slashing .379/.483/.577 with 11 home runs and more walks than strikeouts, also putting up a 1.70 ERA on the mound. Also like Beer, he has regressed a little bit, slashing .317/.454/.528 with eight home runs as a sophomore and .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs this year as a junior. He's a huge human being, standing 6'4" and 265 pounds, which limits him to first base defensively, but his proven power/patience combination in the NCAA is very attractive to major league teams. His right handed swing is cleaner than Beer's left handed swing, though he does have a bit of a head jerk, and he actually strikes me as more advanced than Beer as well. However, given his profile, I would like to see more home runs than the 28 he has hit in 145 career games. He has endured bad injuries to end both his sophomore and junior seasons, breaking his arm last year and his leg this year, both on the base paths. He has a chance to anchor a big league lineup, but there's also the possibility he plateau's in AA.
4. Grant Lavigne (Bedford HS, NH)
New Hampshire doesn't produce much talent at all, with the only notable major leaguer I can think of being Sam Fuld, but Lavigne is the real deal. Like Baker, he is also a huge person, standing 6'4" and 230 pounds, but he is more athletic than all of the guys above him on this list. His swing is also probably the best geared for future success, showing natural loft and few holes, but he gets knocked down this far on the list due to not having proven himself to the point that Casas, Beer, and Baker have. He's risker just by nature of not having as many reps against quality pitching, but he could turn out to be just as good or better than the other guys.
5. Bren Spillane (Illinois)
Spillane put up video game numbers at Illinois this year by slashing .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs in 50 games, using his massive strength and feel for the barrel to muscle balls out of the park with regularity. However, he has an uphill climb to the majors, as his bat speed is average and his swing is long, and pro pitching will likely find holes in it. Being a right handed hitter narrows his margin for error as well. He'll need to tighten it up to find success at the next level, which he can do with his strength.
Others: Evan Edwards (NC State)
1. Triston Casas (American Heritage HS, FL)
American Heritage High School in South Florida has produced tons of talent, most notably Eric Hosmer, and seems to have a top five round pick every year. This year, Triston Casas leads the way as the arguably the top high school prospect in all of South Florida, showing some of the best power in the entire draft class. He generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball as far as anybody in this class, and he combines that power with extreme patience at the plate which could lead to on-base percentages creeping towards .400 in the majors. However, contact could hold him back, as he has a very long swing which could struggle to catch up to quality fastballs, though it hasn't yet. He's a high risk, high reward hitter with a lot to prove and a lot to potentially accomplish. He's committed to the University of Miami and will likely go in the first round.
2. Seth Beer (Clemson)
One of the most interesting bats in all of college baseball, Beer put up a sensational freshman season at Clemson in 2016 by slashing .369/.535/.700 with 18 home runs in 62 games, walking more than twice as often as he struck out and winning the Dick Howser Trophy as the best player in college baseball. However, teams found holes in his swing during his sophomore year and his slash line dropped to .298/.478/.606 with 16 home runs in 63 games, still excellent but not quite what he did as a freshman. It's back up to .308/.464/.656 with 22 home runs in 62 games this year, but the shine from his freshman season has worn off a bit. As a bottom of the scale defender and runner who really would fit better at DH than at first base, his bat needs to carry him, and it carries too many questions for him to find himself in the first round. He has not hit particularly well with wood bats, and there is some fear that quality pitching can find the holes in his swing, which isn't the cleanest, with regularity. Still, there is enough upside in the bat that he likely will not fall out of the top fifty picks.
3. Luken Baker (Texas Christian)
Baker, like Beer, set the world on fire with an excellent freshman season in 2016, slashing .379/.483/.577 with 11 home runs and more walks than strikeouts, also putting up a 1.70 ERA on the mound. Also like Beer, he has regressed a little bit, slashing .317/.454/.528 with eight home runs as a sophomore and .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs this year as a junior. He's a huge human being, standing 6'4" and 265 pounds, which limits him to first base defensively, but his proven power/patience combination in the NCAA is very attractive to major league teams. His right handed swing is cleaner than Beer's left handed swing, though he does have a bit of a head jerk, and he actually strikes me as more advanced than Beer as well. However, given his profile, I would like to see more home runs than the 28 he has hit in 145 career games. He has endured bad injuries to end both his sophomore and junior seasons, breaking his arm last year and his leg this year, both on the base paths. He has a chance to anchor a big league lineup, but there's also the possibility he plateau's in AA.
4. Grant Lavigne (Bedford HS, NH)
New Hampshire doesn't produce much talent at all, with the only notable major leaguer I can think of being Sam Fuld, but Lavigne is the real deal. Like Baker, he is also a huge person, standing 6'4" and 230 pounds, but he is more athletic than all of the guys above him on this list. His swing is also probably the best geared for future success, showing natural loft and few holes, but he gets knocked down this far on the list due to not having proven himself to the point that Casas, Beer, and Baker have. He's risker just by nature of not having as many reps against quality pitching, but he could turn out to be just as good or better than the other guys.
5. Bren Spillane (Illinois)
Spillane put up video game numbers at Illinois this year by slashing .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs in 50 games, using his massive strength and feel for the barrel to muscle balls out of the park with regularity. However, he has an uphill climb to the majors, as his bat speed is average and his swing is long, and pro pitching will likely find holes in it. Being a right handed hitter narrows his margin for error as well. He'll need to tighten it up to find success at the next level, which he can do with his strength.
Others: Evan Edwards (NC State)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)