Showing posts with label John Peck. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Peck. Show all posts

Thursday, September 21, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

It was an extremely high school-heavy draft class for the Tigers, who drafted nine preps overall and signed seven of them, including four in their first five picks. It appears they'll be playing the long game, in a sense creating the next wave of talent that should be up sometime in the 2026-2027 range. The class is heavy on position players, heavy on talent that can stick in the dirt (just one outfielder drafted after Max Clark), and especially early, heavy on advanced hitters. I like most of the picks here and I think Detroit is moving in the right direction with this class.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: $8.34 million. Signing bonus: $7.7 million ($641,700 below slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #5. Prospects Live: #5.
The Tigers popped the first high school position player off the board, and in doing so they brought in as dynamic a talent as you're going to find. Max Clark is already all over the internet as a social media-savvy up and coming baseball star, and he has the talent to match. He's not huge at 6'1", 190 pounds, but he's ideally proportioned at that size with plenty of lean muscle and an ultra projectable, long limbed frame. He has as long and as decorated a track record as any player in the prep class, with extremely consistent production against the top arms in his class going back a long time now. He takes great at bats, uses the whole field, and never tries to do too much at the plate with a clean left handed swing. Hit over power for most of his prep career, he has been hitting the weight room hard and has begun to turn on the ball more often, with at least average power now but likely to be above average power in the future as he fills out. Right there, you have not just a potential but a likely plus hitter with above average power, but it doesn't stop there. Clark is a plus-plus runner that moves gracefully on both sides of the ball, playing extremely well to his gap to gap hitting approach that should enable him to hit plenty of doubles and triples. Throw in his plus-plus arm and strong instincts, and you have a potential plus defender in center field to boot. It's an extraordinarily well-rounded profile that's a bit reminiscent of an early career Curtis Granderson or Grady Sizemore. To top it off, Clark is extremely competitive and well versed in the spotlight, with a likable demeanor and mature work ethic. It's tough to live in the spotlight like that (of course I am not speaking from experience here), and it will continue to be tough for the all-American kid, but he has handled it with grace to this point and I'd certainly bet on him to continue to achieve the lofty expectations around him. He hit well in the Florida Complex League but struggled a bit with an aggressive promotion to Low A Lakeland, overall slashing .224/.383/.376 with two home runs and a 25/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games.

CBA-37: SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner HS [PA] {video}
Slot value: $2.31 million. Signing bonus: $2.85 million ($540,500 above slot value).
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #25. Prospects Live: #21.
This is another fun profile that I'm curious to follow. Kevin McGonigle is one of the best pure hitters in the country, easily one of the most pro ready bats in the entire high school crop. The Tigers signed him away from an Auburn commitment here for most of the money they saved on Max Clark, rolling in for around the slot value of the #28 pick here at #37. McGonigle takes exceptional at bats, looking to do damage early with aggressive hacks but adeptly toning it down and making adjustments as he gets deeper in. You can't fool him with the same pitch twice. Showing a compact left handed swing, he uses the whole field effectively and can turn on the ball for some moderate pull side power to keep pitchers honest. It's certainly a hit over power profile, but one that could flirt with .400 on-base percentages while knocking 15-20 home runs per season at peak. The Philadelphia native also moves very well at shortstop, showing great body control and quick twitch athleticism despite average speed. However, he may be pushed to second or third base in the long run because he likes to set his feet before he throws, lacking the pure arm strength to make those tough throws on the run especially to his right. It's a profile that may not have the highest ceiling due to a lack of power projection at 5'10", but he has a chance to be a significant big league contributor for a long time. He hit the ground running in his pro debut, slashing .315/.452/.411 with one home run and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

2-45: SS Max Anderson, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $1.91 million. Signing bonus: $1.43 million ($476,550 below slot value).
My rank: #44. MLB Pipeline: #91. Baseball America: #71. Prospects Live: #61.
I love this pick, especially since the Tigers saved nearly half a million dollars to bring in a very legitimate second round talent with a signing bonus closer to the #57 slot here at #45. Max Anderson is a career .350 hitter at Nebraska that has never stopped hitting, including breaking out for a massive junior season in which he slashed .414/.461/.770 with 21 home runs and a 29/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He's also a two year performer in the Cape Cod League, sitting at .297/.356/.405 over a two year sample against elite pitching. Anderson has some of the best bat to ball skills in the class, showing the ability to find the fat part of the barrel no matter where it's pitched, including outside the zone. That's a very good thing because he's an extremely aggressive hitter that chases over 30% of the time, so if he's a good bad ball hitter, have at it. Not only that, but Anderson is one of the rare amateur bats that thrives against both velocity and offspeed stuff, showing the ability to recognize pitches, find his timing, and do damage no matter the location nor the pitch type. That should ease his transition to pro ball considerably despite his propensity to chase out of the zone. Once he makes contact, which is awesome, he has sneaky above average power that could give him 20+ home runs per season to go with his high averages, though he hasn't proven that power so much with wood just yet. The Hastings, Nebraska native is not a great athlete so shortstop probably won't happen despite the Tigers drafting him there. With a fringy arm and below average speed, even third base may be a challenge, so Anderson could end up at first base when it's all said and done. Finding a way to make it work at second or third base would obviously elevate the profile, but fortunately he has plenty of bat to profile even at first base. He hit .289/.345/.445 with two home runs and a 26/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games at Low A Lakeland.

3-76: LHP Paul Wilson, Lakeridge HS [OR] {video}
Slot value: $945,100. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($754,900 above slot value).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #51. Baseball America: #51. Prospects Live: #116.
Paul Wilson represents the Tigers' largest over slot bonus in this class, getting the money for the #50 pick here at #76 to sign away from an Oregon State commitment. His father, Trevor Wilson, was a reliable starting pitcher for the Giants in the late 80's and early 90's, and now Paul will get his shot. Well-known in the Pacific Northwest already with a presence on the national stage, he really pushed himself up boards with a strong spring and earned his large signing bonus. He sits in the low to mid 90's and was reaching the upper 90's in the spring, getting more hop on his fastball to help miss bats. He shows nice feel to spin the ball with both a slider and a curveball, with the curve especially looking like a potential putaway pitch in pro ball. There's a changeup, too, with some fading action but overall more of an average pitch at this point. The 6'3" lefty looks pretty filled out as is and does throw with some effort from a short arm delivery, which could lead to relief risk. However, he did a better job this spring at holding his command together and maintaining his peak velocity and stuff, leading to increased optimism that he can start, and he's plenty physical enough to do so. The Tigers are buying big arm strength with feel to spin the ball and a positive trajectory, which is even better when you're getting it all from the left side.

4-107: SS Carson Rucker, Goodpasture Christian HS [TN] {video}
Slot value: $627,900. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($144,600 above slot value).
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #132. Baseball America: #297. Prospects Live: #190.
The Tigers kept at it with the high school picks here, pulling in the younger brother of Twins prospect Jake Rucker. While Jake reached AA this year, Carson will just be getting started with another over slot bonus to keep him away from a Tennessee commitment, where he would have played at his brother's alma mater. Carson is a well rounded hitter with a strong, projectable 6'2" frame that he has begun to fill out. He takes powerful, leveraged hacks from the right side to produce above average power, though the swing can get a little long at times and create some swing and miss. It's nothing egregious, though, and he's a solid pure hitter that can handle advanced stuff while still doing damage. He's solid at shortstop, but he'll likely get pushed to third base by a springier defender, especially if he slows down with age, but he should stick on the left side of the infield. It's a nice profile with a lot going for it that could develop into a solid every day contributor as he progresses. The bloodlines are nice to have as well, though it should be noted that the Nashville-area native is on the older side for a high school senior and turned 19 just a month after the draft. He hit .242/.390/.364 with one home run and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in his nine game Florida Complex League debut.

5-143: RHP Jaden Hamm, Middle Tennessee State {video}
Slot value: $442,200. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($44,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #218. Baseball America: #186. Prospects Live: #140.
Jaden Hamm jumped on the map with a strong fall practice last year and really established himself with an eleven strikeout one hitter against Evansville in March, though in all he was inconsistent and was blown up in a few starts. Overall, he showed a 5.31 ERA and a 93/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings and the Tigers are buying the guy they saw when Hamm was at his best. The fastball sits in the low 90's and can touch 97 in short stints, with huge riding action that makes it an above average pitch when he locates it. He adds a hammer curveball and a nice fading changeup, though those two pitches are less consistent than his fastball. The 6'1" righty has long arm action and comes from an over the top release point, which some hitters can get a good luck at especially if he's behind in the count and they're sitting on the fastball. Hamm does generally do a good job of locating that fastball but is less consistent in that regard with his offspeed stuff. The Tigers will want to focus on helping the Middle Tennessee native find more consistency with those offspeed pitches, which could make him a solid back end starter. If not, the fastball/curveball could play very well out of the bullpen especially as he likely adds a tick of velocity in that role. He looked extremely sharp in his pro debut, tossing twelve shutout innings (one unearned run) while striking out twelve and walking just one between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

6-170: C Bennett Lee, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $342,400. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($44,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #428. Prospects Live: unranked.
It may look like a backup catcher profile on the surface, and it probably is, but Bennett Lee is a fun prospect to get into your system regardless. He burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season at Tulane in 2021 (.440/.527/.600, 4 HR), then came back to earth a little bit as a sophomore. He transferred to Wake Forest in 2023 and held down the starting catcher role for the Omaha-bound Demon Deacons, slashing .303/.435/.472 with seven home runs and an even 32/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. It's not a standout offensive profile, but it's one that gets it done. Starting from a quiet setup, he uses the whole field and find the barrel consistently for hard contact, profiling for fringy raw power overall. He's very patient in the box and draws a ton of walks, helping him get on base at a .426 clip over his three year college career and providing a nice baseline for his offensive value. The offensive bar is lower for catchers, especially if they can defend like Lee. He has an above average glove back there with a strong arm, showing off his chops by working with the best staff in college baseball this spring. A hard nosed competitor, he'll be a great add to the clubhouse that will make his pitchers better, which is exactly what you want in a backup catcher. He showed off his patience by slashing .200/.444/.217 with an 11/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at Low A Lakeland.

7-200: SS John Peck, Pepperdine {video}
Slot value: $267,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($44,500 below slot value).
My rank: #189. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #150. Prospects Live: #176.
John Peck is certainly an interesting profile. He had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (.361/.417/.578, 7 HR) but struggled on the Cape over the summer (.182/.248/.245) and couldn't replicate his big sophomore season in 2023, when he slashed .272/.353/.441 with six home runs and a 51/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Peck is physically gifted if nothing else. Not huge at six feet tall, he has explosive bat speed from the right side that produces sneaky plus raw power that you rarely find this late in the draft, much less from a shortstop. However, he doesn't tap that power much in games and never hit more than seven home runs in a season at Pepperdine because he struggles to square the ball up and rarely turns on it with authority. The swing gets swoopy and he's prone to chasing breaking balls, leading to a high strikeout rate that was really exacerbated on the Cape, where he struck out 31.8% of the time. I'm far from sold on Peck's ability to make it work against pro pitching, but like I mentioned, you can't teach that kind of bat speed and when it comes from a quality defender, it's worth a shot here in the seventh round. The Southern California native has the arm to stick at shortstop, though he's not as twitchy as you'd like at that position and he may have to move to third base. Still, he should be at least an average defender there and it helps buy the bat some time to pull it together. There could be some Javier Baez in the profile if it comes together, though Baez is a freak athlete that far surpasses Peck in that regard. He hit .204/.391/.224 with a 13/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

12-350: RHP Andrew Dunford, Houston County HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $367,500 ($217,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It was a big year for Houston County High School in the Macon area, with senior star Drew Burress and former Houston County Bear turned Georgia Bulldog Jaden Woods primed to do well on draft day. Burress priced himself out of the draft and will attend Georgia Tech, while Woods signed with the Pirates for slot value in the seventh round. So as it turns out, the highest signing bonus of any player from that school (which also recently produced Orioles pitcher DL Hall and Washington Commanders quarterback Jake Fromm) went to Andrew Dunford, who was unranked on every major public board. He's hard to miss on the diamond, standing 6'7" and already packed with muscle. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops around 94, but with his size and athleticism, he's sure to add more velocity. He gets running and sinking action on it as well. His slider looks good when he finishes it, though it regularly backs up on him and needs more consistency. The same can be said for his changeup, which looks promising but again needs consistency. Despite his size, Dunford moves very well on the mound and stays around the zone. It's a frame you can absolutely dream on, with a huge ceiling as he works forward in his development. That kind of size and athleticism together is not commonly found. He tossed four shutout innings while striking out three and walking two in the Florida Complex League.

15-440: C Brady Cerkownyk, Connors State JC [OK] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Brady Cerkownyk is an off the radar pick from the professional baseball perspective, but you certainly knew who he was if you were facing Connors State, a small JuCo in eastern Oklahoma. To say he terrorized the Oklahoma JuCo pitching ranks would be an understatement – in 55 games, he slashed .470/.555/.985 with 27 home runs, 23 doubles, and an 18/31 strikeout to walk ratio, including a .552/.639/1.162 line at his home Biff Thompson Field in Warner. After the season, he took a brief turn in the MLB Draft League and hit .243/.356/.324 with a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games. There's not a ton of public information out there about Cerkownyk, but we'll do our best. He's a 6' catcher with a very well rounded bat, controlling the strike zone very well and rarely swinging and missing against Oklahoma JuCo pitching. The strikeout rate rose from 7.3% at Connors State to 22.2% in his short MLB Draft League stint, and we have to expect that it's going to be a sizable jump in competition going into pro ball. He's got some thump in the bat too with a powerful right handed swing, but it remains to be seen whether he can tap it consistently in pro ball. The Toronto native has a strong arm behind the plate and gets out of the crouch quickly, though I haven't seen any video of his glovework. He's due to regress from his 1.540 OPS at Connors State, but even half that would be a nice find for a catcher. He played just two games in the Florida Complex League, picking up one single in six at bats while striking out once and getting hit by a pitch.

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at low and mid-majors (west)

2022 draftees: 83. Top school: UC Santa Barbara (6)
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/23/2021)

Top draftees:
1-8, Twins: SS Brooks Lee (Cal Poly)
1-10, Rockies: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga)
2-59, Cardinals: LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego)
2-61, Yankees: RHP Drew Thorpe (Cal Poly)
3-96, Braves: C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State)
3-98, Blue Jays: OF Alan Roden (Creighton)
3-100, Yankees: RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga)

Moving west of the Mississippi River, our western mid majors couldn't quite match the eastern mid majors' total of 95 draftees last year, but UC Santa Barbara did lead all mid major schools with six draftees and Cal Poly's Brooks Lee and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes marked the two highest drafted mid major players last year. Just like back east, even though we're focusing outside the traditional Power Five conferences, there are still some college baseball juggernauts in the smaller conferences like Dallas Baptist, Gonzaga, and UC Santa Barbara, and looking back a little more historically, schools like Rice, Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton, and San Diego State have had plenty of success.

Similar to the east, the new age of the transfer portal did put a dent in this class. Two-way player Paul Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU while righty Juaron Watts-Brown transferred from Long Beach State to Oklahoma State, and they would have both been top-three prospects on this list. Luke Keaschall transferred from San Francisco to Arizona State, and he would have also been represented here. So as with the east, while it's not nearly a blanket statement, you are more likely to see late bloomers in these conferences.

This year's iteration includes Jacob Wilson, who for now is the top mid major prospect on either side of the river, headlining a class heavy on hit-over-power types. While you'll only find one player with a plus power grade on this list, and that's arguable, five of the six hitters in the top ten prospects registered a strikeout rate below 15% last year and five of six also batted above .340. The four pitchers on the list, meanwhile, all come with very different profiles. And finally, you'll notice that the top four (and six of the top eight) players drafted from these schools a year ago came from Cal Poly, Gonzaga, or San Diego, and all three of those schools are represented on this top ten list once again for 2023.

1. SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 175 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Thousand Oaks, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .358/.418/.585, 0 SB, 7/25 K/BB in 59 games.
Jack Wilson spent over a decade in the majors, mostly with the Pirates, then went on to coach at Thousand Oaks High School in Southern California. He coached some incredible infield talent there, including the younger Max Muncy now of the A's, Roc Riggio now of Oklahoma State, and his son, Jacob Wilson, the best prospect at any mid major school in the country right now. The elder Wilson actually followed his son to Grand Canyon, where he recently signed on to be an assistant coach. Jacob, meanwhile is well established in Phoenix. He is coming off an impressive sophomore season in which he struck out just seven times in 59 games, followed by a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.278/.381/.389) and with the Collegiate National Team (.362/.462/.455). Wilson, of course, stands out for his pure hitting ability, with elite plate discipline that ranks among the best in the country. Very jittery at the plate and on the field, he twitches his bat and taps his feet in the box while awaiting the pitch, but quiets everything down for consistent execution. He's so advanced in the box that it almost looks like he's seeing pitches in slow motion, laying off the ones he doesn't like and rarely missing the ones he does. This is true against fastballs, breaking balls, you name it, and his .381 on-base percentage and 11.9% strikeout rate in a small Cape sample show that it's not just a product of a smaller conference. At this point, he's very skinny and shows below average power, but he can turn on the ball and send it out to the pull side. Despite standing 6'3", that skinny frame does limit his projection a little bit and he'll likely never have better than average power, but his elite ability to recognize pitches, and therefore mistakes, will help him continue to show that ambush power all the way up the ladder. The ultimate projection here is a .300+ hitter with on-base percentages nearing .400, with perhaps 10-15 home runs per year at peak. Defensively, he's very light on his feet at shortstop with strong feel for the position and enough arm strength to make it work, giving him a chance to stick at the premium position with a little luck. Ultimately, there is a good chance a defender with more range pushes him off the position, in which case he could profile very well at second or third base. For now, this is an easy first round profile with a chance to go in the top ten picks if teams believe in his defense and/or his ability to grow into some power.

2. UT Cole Carrigg, San Diego State.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 5/8/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 3 HR, .388/.426/.509, 19 SB, 28/12 K/BB in 54 games.
Jacob Wilson played with A's 2021 first round pick Max Muncy at Thousand Oaks High School in the Los Angeles suburbs, while Cole Carrigg was teammates with A's 2020 first round pick Tyler Soderstrom at Turlock High School in the Central Valley. I mentioned that this list contains five hitters that batted over .340 last year, and of those, Carrigg's .388 mark was the best. Not only that, but he kept making consistent, quality contact in the Cape Cod League over the summer where he slashed .325/.388/.411 over a large, 46 game sample. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple, line drive-oriented approach, keeping his eyes behind the ball and shooting it back where it came from. With excellent feel for the barrel, that leads to consistent execution and plenty of hard hit balls around the field. Similar to Wilson, he's 6'3" but he's very skinny, with perhaps even less physical projection than Wilson. The power is safely below average for now and likely always will be, with the potential for fringe-average power if he tacks on additional muscle. Either way, it's not a power-conscious approach, and he'll likely settle in around ten home runs a year at his peak. Defensively, Carrigg is a true utility man. He played seven different positions in the Cape Cod League alone, appearing everywhere except the bottom two on the defensive spectrum – first base and left field. Yes, he even threw 5.2 innings on the mound, striking out seven while allowing just two baserunners against elite hitters. That's much better than his one appearance at San Diego State this year, where Iowa got him for six runs in the only inning he threw. A very good athlete, Carrigg shows the above average speed and plus arm to profile anywhere on the diamond, whether that means shortstop, center field, or even catcher. For now, his actions around the dirt aren't quite fluid enough to warrant a long term future at shortstop, but specializing in infield defense and dropping the outfield/mound/catcher's mitt could help him get there if his development system commits to it. Behind the plate, the arm strength and athleticism will buy him time for his finer glovework to catch up, and it's a real possibility. Carrigg has four tools that are comfortably above average or better, and being on the younger side for the class helps his profile as well. It's a very interesting one that could develop in any number of directions.

3. 3B Mike Boeve, Omaha.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 200 lbs. Born 5/5/2002. Hometown: Hastings, NE.
2022: 8 HR, .364/.491/.584, 12 SB, 29/39 K/BB in 57 games.
Three names, three hit-over-power profiles in a row. Similar to Jacob Wilson, Mike Boeve's profile is carried by elite plate discipline that saw him walk 14.6% of the time last year while striking out just 10.9% of the time – leading to nearly a .500 on-base percentage. That strong approach carried over to the Cape Cod League, where he slashed .278/.403/.339 over 41 games. He has a similar approach to hitting as Cole Carrigg, never trying to do too much at the plate and instead happily barreling the ball to all fields with a simple left handed swing. Like Wilson and Carrigg, we're talking below average power from another 6'3" frame for Boeve, but there is reason to believe he may grow into some. For now, his approach can get slappy at times and he tends to leak his power over his front foot while he's focused on simply meeting the baseball with the barrel, but when he turns on the ball while maintaining his leverage, he can get into some sneaky power. That power didn't show up on the Cape, where he had just seven extra base hits (all doubles) in 41 games for a paltry .061 ISO, but I do think he has a chance to tap more in pro ball. He's not quite the defender that Wilson or Carrigg are, with an arm that may be stretched at third base and range that might be stretched at second base, so the bat will have to carry the profile. He does have a shot to be a bat-first infielder that can hit 10-15, perhaps even 15-20, home runs per season with high on-base percentages.

4. 3B Kevin Sim, San Diego.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 2/7/2002. Hometown: San Diego, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .292/.387/.527, 8 SB, 39/35 K/BB in 57 games.
On a list full of contact-first bats, Kevin Sim has the best raw power of the group even if his twelve home runs a year ago won't blow you away. In addition to his strong season at San Diego, he hit five more home runs on the Cape over the summer while slashing .239/.349/.424 over 27 games. Sim packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame, unleashing a powerful, leveraged right handed swing that helps him produce some high exit velocities. Combine that with a very strong approach at the plate (an ongoing theme on this list), and he's consistently putting himself in position to do damage. Unlike his peers on this list, his pure bat to ball skills do lag behind a bit, and while his disciplined approach helped him run a strong 14.5% strikeout rate at San Diego last year, it ballooned to 27.5% on the Cape against more advanced pitching. With some moving parts in his swing, it remains to be seen whether he can catch up to higher level stuff consistently once in pro ball. Still, it's a well-rounded offensive profile that could produce 20-25 or more home runs per season along with potentially high on-base percentages if he can keep his strikeout rate down. Over at third base, he shows the arm strength and natural feel for the position necessary to profile there, but he's not a quick twitch athlete and his range may force him to first base in the long run. There, the emphasis will be even more on his ability to make consistent contact, though he will likely always run high walk rates.

5. RHP Levi Wells, Texas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 215 lbs. Born 9/21/2001. Hometown: La Porte, TX.
2022: 8-3, 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 86/32 K/BB in 91 innings.
Levi Wells was a highly regarded recruit out of the Houston area, starting his college career at Texas Tech but struggling mightily with his command. He transferred to Texas State as a sophomore, where he found his footing in a big way and held down the Saturday starter role all season long as he cut his walk rate all the way from 25% down to 8.2%. That was followed up by a solid run through the Cape Cod League, here he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 29/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings as a reliever. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a potentially plus curveball with power and depth as well as a less used cutter and changeup. Despite the loud stuff, though, he didn't miss as many bats as you'd like and ran just a 22.2% strikeout rate at Texas State, though that number spiked to 38.2% in short stints on the Cape. His fastball is fairly straight, playing a bit below its above average velocity, and he does need to get a little more consistent with his curveball. Beyond that, it would behoove him to take a step forward with either the cutter or the changeup to give him a third weapon, as well as continuing to refine his command. The control was ahead of the command in 2022 and that was evident against more experienced bats on the Cape, where his walk rate jumped up to 15.8%. There are numerous small holes in the profile, but nothing is back breaking and they also provide numerous opportunities for him to step forward in his development. He doesn't need to patch all of them, but even incremental progress on things like his fastball movement and his changeup could turn him into a legitimate starting pitching prospect. Watch for improvement in any number of small areas in 2023.

6. RHP Kade Morris, Nevada.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 170 lbs. Born 6/21/2002. Hometown: Turlock, CA.
2022: 7-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 45/18 K/BB in 57 innings.
A cross-town rival of Cole Carrigg's during high school in Turlock, California, Kade Morris wound up at Nevada and transferred to TCU when Nevada head coach T.J. Bruce took an assistant coaching position there. However, before he could make it to Fort Worth, Morris took a metaphorical U turn and he'll remain in Reno for his draft year. He posted nice numbers a year ago as a swingman pitching in some very offense-friendly environments, then took a step forward with three strong starts in the Cape Cod League over the summer (1.08 ERA, 9/6 K/BB in 16.2 IP). He sits in the low 90's with his fastball as a starter, running it up to 97 in short stints while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His sweeping, two plane slider is his best secondary right now, while he also shows a more vertical curveball to steal strikes and keeps a changeup in his back pocket. For now, though, he mostly works off that fastball/slider combination. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound, working from a low three quarters slot with an easy delivery, and he's likely to add more velocity as he fills out his projectable frame. Morris also pounds the strike zone and rarely hurts himself with walks, running a very solid 7.6% walk rate at Nevada a year ago and 9.4% on the Cape. But to this point, the flaw in his profile is that he doesn't miss as many bats in the zone as he needs to. The fastball has some modest life but it's nothing special, while the slider alone is not quite potent enough to rack up high numbers of whiffs on its own. If he wants to convince teams he's a starter at the next level, he'll want to significantly bump up the 18.9% strikeout rate he ran at Nevada last year that dropped to 14.1% on the Cape. Still, with his projection, youth, athleticism, arm strength, and deep arsenal, there is plenty to like going forward and he would probably sneak into the top one hundred picks if the draft were today.

7. 2B Charles McAdoo, San Jose State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 210 lbs. Born 3/6/2002. Hometown: Antioch, CA.
2022: 12 HR, .345/.406/.629, 6 SB, 33/19 K/BB in 56 games.
Charles McAdoo didn't play much as a freshman, but he got into the everyday lineup as a sophomore and posted some of the best numbers in the Mountain West. Moving on to the Northwoods League over the summer, he continued to mash to the tune of a .305/.363/.575 line and ten home runs in 43 games. Very aggressive in the box, he doesn't like to waste time in his at bats and will jump on the first pitch he likes, leading to just a 7.3% walk rate at San Jose State and 8.9% in the Northwoods League. Meanwhile, his very strong feel for the barrel means that he was still very effective at keeping his strikeout rates down, rarely missing that pitch he decided to jump on with lots of hard contact around the field. Packing a ton of strength into his 6'2" frame, he works with a compact operation in the box and a leveraged swing that helps him produce above average raw power. His approach is geared towards smoking line drives to all fields, but he's certainly not afraid to turn on the ball and send it deep into the left field seats. Going forward into pro ball, it will be important to keep an eye on that aggressive approach, as his strikeout rate rose from 12.6% at San Jose State to 21.1% in the Northwoods League. Pro pitchers will take advantage of that propensity to chase, so his ability to make adjustments could make or break his profile. It's a profile reliant on the bat, as he's a fringy defender that should be adequate at second base.

8. RHP Owen Wild, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 230 lbs. Born 7/30/2002. Hometown: Gig Harbor, WA.
2022: 9-1, 3.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 83/24 K/BB in 74.1 innings.
Last year, Gonzaga had a trio of pitchers go in the top three rounds in first rounder Gabriel Hughes (Rockies) and third rounders Trystan Vrieling (Yankees) and William Kempner (Giants). They're not done yet, as Owen Wild looks ready to take that next step and become the next Bulldog ace. Wild made just two appearances as a freshman, but was very effective in a swingman role as a sophomore and continued to impress in the Alaska Summer League, where he posted a 1.82 ERA and a 43/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings. Wild's fastball has ticked up into the low 90's now, reaching the mid 90's at best with flat plane and some ride. He has a slurvy breaking ball that shows well when he keeps it down, and added power could make it an above average or better pitch. Wild also shows an above average changeup with great fade, though he does need to be more consistent with his arm speed when he throws it. The 6'2" righty is physically developed and works from a drop and drive delivery, helping him work from a low center of gravity that makes his pitches play up. He's also very young for the class, not turning 21 until after the draft, which gives him plenty of time to hone his arsenal. All three pitches have the potential to become above average or better, and he shows above average command to boot. I like this one and I think he has a very good shot to become a mid-rotation starter.

9. RHP Bryce Warrecker, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'8", 240 lbs. Born 9/13/2001. Hometown: Santa Barbara, CA.
2022: 2-0, 5.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30/5 K/BB in 26.1 innings.
Bryce Warrecker hasn't done much in two years at Cal Poly, holding a 5.61 career ERA and a .298 opponents' batting average over fewer than sixty innings, but few players did as much to elevate their profile in the Cape Cod League as Warrecker did. Over eleven games (seven starts), he put up a 2.03 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/8 strikeout to walk ratio across 40 innings, enough to be named the Cape Cod League Outstanding Pitcher. A towering presence at 6'8", he comes from a low three quarters slot that gives hitters a unique look and lays the foundation for a profile that works off of deception. He doesn't work with much velocity, sitting in the low 90's and rarely popping above that range, and brings a couple of quality secondaries. His slider varies between a sweeper and more of a downer pitch depending on what he needs, while his changeup looks above average with late drop. He allowed a lot of loud contact at Cal Poly and ran a modest 22.6% strikeout rate on the Cape even as he kept runs and baserunners off the board, so he'll likely have a low margin for error in pro ball. The good news is that he also pounds the strike zone with above average command, making for a very solid back-end starter profile. There is a lot to like here even if the upside is a bit limited.

10. SS John Peck, Pepperdine.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 165 lbs. Born 7/18/2002. Hometown: Moorpark, CA.
2022: 7 HR, .361/.417/.578, 7 SB, 38/14 K/BB in 40 games.
John Peck is sure to be a polarizing prospect in this class, with a lot of underlying strengths and weaknesses. He raked at Pepperdine this past spring, slashing .361/.417/.578 sandwiched around an April injury that kept him out for close to a month. He moved on to the Cape over the summer, where he struggled immensely to the tune of a .182/.248/.245 slash line and a 31.8% strikeout rate over 45 games including just two hits in his final ten games. Peck has worked to get stronger and, when he's going right, unleashes a barrage of line drives to all fields that helped him hit .361 at Pepperdine last year. He can really smoke the ball, with strong batted ball data that could point to plus power in the tank if he learns how to tap it. For now, he doesn't turn on the ball often enough to do so and with a strikeout rate above 20% at Pepperdine and above 30% on the Cape, he'll also have to improve his pitch selection in tandem with a more power-conscious approach should he choose to pursue it. Defensively, he's very smooth with the glove around the infield and has a better chance to stick at shortstop than anyone else on this list. It's a very interesting profile that could really thrive in the right development system, but there's some boom/bust there as well. Like Owen Wild, he's very young for the class and won't turn 21 until after the draft.