The Cardinals develop talent very well and have maintained a strong farm system even through a long run of contention, though that system may be down just a hair right now. The graduations of Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, and Jack Flaherty and trades of Carson Kelly, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Oscar Mercado, among others, have left the system thinner than usual as they haven't really had as much impact talent as usual coming through to back it up. The fact that back to back first round picks (both 23rd overall) Nick Plummer (2015) and Delvin Perez (2016) haven't panned out as hoped so far hurts, and most of the talent is concentrated in AA and AAA. Of course, I say "as much impact talent" because the Cardinals still have plenty of prospects breaking through, and the system is still quite average even during a down period. They have their typical, if a bit thin, army of useful starting pitchers as well as plenty of competent hitters that should be at least useful role players, though they're a bit short on impact hitters after Nolan Gorman.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis RedBirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, Short Season State College Spikes, Rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Alex Reyes, RHP Dakota Hudson, RHP Daniel Poncedeleon, LHP Genesis Cabrera, RHP Ryan Helsley, and RHP Jacob Woodford
While the bottom of the Cardinals' farm system doesn't have much pitching depth, they have a nice array of major league ready or near-major league ready arms that have a diverse set of outlooks. 24 year old Alex Reyes has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a back injury in 2018 have slowed him down just as he reached the majors. However, he's just so talented that he's still the top prospect in a pretty decent Cardinals system. Over 23 minor league innings across four levels this year, he did not allow a run and put just 14 people on base for a 0.61 WHIP, striking out 44 to just seven walks. He also threw four shutout innings in the majors, striking out two and walking two and giving himself 27 shutout innings overall. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also dropping a hammer curveball and a pretty good changeup, stuff which is good enough to miss plenty of bats even at the major league level. While his command isn't great, the stuff is so good that he can be a #3 starter even with mediocre command, and if his command can take a step forward with consistent, healthy innings under his belt, he could be an ace and be one soon. 24 year old Dakota Hudson is also on the cusp of the majors, though he's a very different pitcher. The 2016 first round pick (34th overall) out of Mississippi State effectively handled AAA Memphis this year, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 87/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings before a moderately successful MLB stint (2.63 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 27.1 IP). He throws a mid 90's fastball with good sink as well as a very good cutter, though the rest of his arsenal is just average. Because he has decent enough command and those two pitches are so good, he can crack it as a starter up at AAA, but it remains to be seen whether he will last as a starter long term in the majors, where he'll need to be more precise with his command than he has been. Even if he doesn't develop any further and remains as is, Hudson would make a very good reliever, so the floor is high. 26 year old Daniel Poncedeleon broke through this year, going 9-4 with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at Memphis and then posting a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings in St. Louis. He's kind of a pitcher where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, with his low to mid 90's sinker headlining a pretty average arsenal that he commands decently well. His 2017 season ended with a line drive off the head, but he bounced back in 2018 and has over-performed everywhere. His scouting report says #5 starter/long reliever, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, he could stick in the rotation for a long time. 22 year old Genesis Cabrera will continue to get noticed due to his fantastic name, but he's also an important prospect after coming over in the Tommy Pham trade in July. He posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 148/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.1 innings, mostly at AA (plus two innings at AAA), showing one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the minors but lacking refinement elsewhere in his game. He ends up being more hittable than he should be when he falls behind in the count and when hitters don't have to worry about a good changeup, but the Cardinals do very well with refining pitchers and more time in the St. Louis system could help him break out into the possible mid-rotation starter he could be. Having just turned 22, he has plenty of time to master AAA and get ready for the majors. 24 year old Ryan Helsley has quietly handled the minors and, like Poncedeleon, seems to over-achieve everywhere he pitches. This year, he posted a 3.97 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 82/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings at AA Springfield, Memphis, and 2.2 rehab innings in complex ball. He throws a little harder than Poncedeleon but otherwise has a similarly average skill set, but his natural feel for the game has helped him reach the highest level of the minors. In 2019, he has a chance to prove he can start in the majors despite a relieverish profile. Lastly, 22 year old Jacob Woodford flew through the low minors after being drafted in the competitive balance round (39th overall) out of high school in Tampa, but he struggled for the first time in his career upon reaching the high minors this year. Over 28 starts, he had a 4.90 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 101/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 innings at Springfield and Memphis, much different than his 3.31 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2016 and his 3.10 mark at High A Palm Beach in 2017. He throws in the low 90's with decent secondary stuff and enough command to make it work, and as the youngest pitcher in this section (by 18 days over Cabrera), he has plenty of time to make the adjustments.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Seth Elledge, RHP Griffin Roberts, and LHP Steven Gingery
There is not nearly as much depth in the low minors for the Cardinals as there is in the high minors, with some good upside but nothing elite. 21 year old Junior Fernandez throws in the upper 90's with a good changeup, but he lacks a good breaking ball and when he falls behind in the count, hitters can sit on his fastball. This past year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, not missing nearly as many bats as he should. He's likely a reliever at this point, but if he brings in his command just a little, he may not need to develop a good breaking ball to be successful in the majors. 22 year old Seth Elledge, who came over from Seattle for Sam Tuivailala in July, is a more traditional relief prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider/changeup set, which he commands better than Fernandez. In 2018, he posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings between High A Modesto (Seattle) and AA Springfield. His ceiling is not as high as Fernandez's, but he is a more complete pitcher at this point and has a better chance to crack the majors and do so successfully. 22 year old Griffin Roberts was a competitive balance pick (43rd overall) out of Wake Forest this year, posting a 5.59 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between complex ball and High A Palm Beach. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a fantastic slider, one that on its own should get him up through the minors, though he'll have to improve his command and possibly add a tick to his fastball to become an elite reliever. The Cardinals believe he still has a chance at starting, in which case he'll have to continue to develop his changeup and there will be even more pressure on his command. Because he will miss the first 50 games of the season with a drug suspension and he's already old for his draft class (he'll be almost 23 when he's ready to return), I'd just stick him in the bullpen and let him move quickly through the minors. Lastly, 21 year old Steven Gingery was a fourth round pick out of Texas Tech this year, though he's a very different pitcher. He may get a late start on his 2019 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he has a good chance of returning early in the season. He's a 6'1" lefty who doesn't throw hard or have a good curveball, but he lives on his excellent changeup and commands his pitches very well. Gingery doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the Cardinals will try to help him sharpen his stuff just enough to move up through the minors as a back-end starter and get him to the major league mound fairly quickly once he's healthy. With his command and his swing and miss changeup, a little velocity or a sharper breaking ball could go a long way.
High Minors Hitters: C Andrew Knizner, OF Randy Arozarena, OF Justin Williams, OF Lane Thomas, 2B Max Schrock, SS Edmundo Sosa, 2B Ramon Urias, and SS Tommy Edman
As with the pitchers, most of the Cardinals' impact talent on offense is concentrated towards the top of the minor leagues. 23 year old Andrew Knizner is the one impact offensive prospect high in the minors, and Cardinals fans should be excited. Over 94 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, he slashed .313/.368/.430 with seven home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio, bringing his career minor league slash line to .310/.373/.460 over 242 games. He has hit everywhere he has been, making consistent hard contact even against advanced pitching and while he doesn't hit for too much power, he has enough pop in his bat to where he could start as a catcher once Yadier Molina relinquishes the job, if he ever does. While he's not a fantastic defender, he's good enough to where he's not a liability back there and with his bat, he'll at the very least be a very competent backup to Molina. 23 year old outfielders Randy Arozarena and Justin Williams have similar outlooks, both being toolsy outfielders on the verge of cracking the majors as good backups or solid regulars. Arozarena slashed .274/.359/.433 with 12 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and an 84/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between Springfield and Memphis, though he was better at the lower level (.396/.455/.681) than at the higher level (.232/.328/.348). Williams, meanwhile, slashed .252/.307/.379 with 11 home runs and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games just in AAA, also grounding out against Adam Conley in his only major league at bat. Arozarena is faster and a bit better of a defender, though Williams has a better track record at the plate and is more advanced for his age. Both have marginal power, though the Cardinals do well with these guys and both could be important bats. Expect one to end up starting at some point in a Stephen Piscotty capacity, while the other should end up a good fourth outfielder. 23 year old Lane Thomas had a great year statistically, slashing .264/.333/.489 with 21 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 134/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, his combination of power, speed, and defense giving him some interesting upside. He's a breakout prospect who never hit more than eight home runs in a season prior to this year, so if he can maintain that power breakout next year, he could be in the rookie outfield mix with Arozarena and Williams. This group of four infielders gives the Cardinals great depth at every position, and 24 year old Max Schrock has the best bat of the four. The former South Carolina Gamecock was traded from Washington to Oakland for Marc Rzepczynski then to St. Louis for Stephen Piscotty, though he had his worst offensive season this year by slashing .249/.296/.331 with four home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Memphis (down from .321/.379/.422 in AA in 2017). Just 5'8", he's a scrappy player who is just a decent defender at second base but one who plays hard and makes consistent contact, striking out in just 7.9% of his plate appearances this year. 22 year old Edmundo Sosa is the best defender, though he can still swing it a bit, having slashed .270/.313/.420 with 12 home runs and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Springfield and Memphis this year. His bat is probably too light to start, as he lacks power and doesn't get on base like Schrock, but his defense should make him a useful utility man. Lastly, 24 year old Ramon Urias and 23 year old Tommy Edman are utility prospects with no standout tools who just do a little bit of everything. Urias, recently signed out of the Mexican League, slashed .300/.356/.516 with 13 home runs and a 58/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between Springfield and Memphis, hitting better at the lower level (.333/.406/.589) than the upper level (.261/.291/.430). Edman hit .301/.354/.402 with seven home runs and 30 stolen bases across the same two levels, showing more speed and less power. Both, along with Schrock and Sosa, will be in the utility infield mix in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Luken Baker, 3B Elehuris Montero, OF Conner Capel, OF Dylan Carlson, and SS Delvin Perez
Down at the bottom of the St. Louis system, there's not much depth but there are a couple of guys who could be real difference makers. 18 year old Nolan Gorman might be the best prospect in the system, having just been drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of high school in Phoenix and destroying the Appalachian League in his debut. He slashed .350/.443/.664 with 11 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games with rookie level Johnson City in the Appy League, then slashed .202/.280/.426 with six more home runs and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games after an aggressive promotion to Class A Peoria, totaling 17 home runs and a .291/.380/.570 line over 63 games. He has huge raw power that could produce 40 home runs per season in the majors, but his long swing was thought to be a potential impediment to making contact in pro baseball. So far, that has not been an issue at all, and even though 6'1" is a bit small for a slugger, Gorman has middle of the order upside for the Cardinals if he can continue to make contact against better and better pitching. His defense at third base is just average and may force a move to first base, but the bat will play. 21 year old Luken Baker was a second rounder (75th overall) in the same draft out of TCU, and he got off to a similarly hot start by slashing .319/.386/.460 with four home runs and a 35/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and Peoria. The 6'4", 265 pound slugger has a very advanced bat that should move through the minors fairly quickly, though he has more 20-30 home run power than the 40 homer potential you'd expect given his size. He's limited to first base defensively but if he hits as expected, he should be able to work his way up to a starting spot or at least an important bench spot quickly. 20 year old Elehuris Montero had a breakout year in the mid minors this year, slashing .315/.371/.504 with 16 home runs and a 103/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Peoria and High A Palm Beach. He has power from the right side that he began to tap into in 2018, and he's a pretty advanced hitter for his age. He's not a great defender at third base but he has a great arm and may be able to stick there. If his power continues to grow, he could have another big season and push himself from an interesting upside play to a legitimate impact prospect. 21 year old Conner Capel and 20 year old Dylan Carlson give the Cardinals two more outfield bats to follow that could develop into nice role players in the future, with Capel coming over from the Indians in July and Carlson being a first round pick (33rd overall) out of high school near Sacramento in 2016. Capel slashed .257/.341/.376 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 102/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A, while Carlson slashed .246/.348/.390 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between Class A and High A. Both have marginal bats with good approaches and some present power, though neither has enough punch in their bats at this point to profile as more than future fourth outfielders. They're both good defenders, though Capel is faster, but Carlson has the slightly better bat and probably has the higher upside. Lastly, 20 year old Delvin Perez was the Cardinals' first round pick (23rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico in 2016, but the once-elite draft prospect has not panned out as planned so far. In 2018, he slashed .213/.301/.272 with one home run, eight stolen bases, and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in short season State College, continuing to struggle in his transition to pro ball and leaving the Cardinals wondering what kind of prospect they have. He's still a great defender at shortstop and will continue to get chances due to both that and his draft pedigree, but he has to start hitting at some point or he'll just end up organizational filler.
Friday, December 28, 2018
Friday, December 21, 2018
Reviewing the Oakland Athletics Farm System
The A's have graduated some high level prospects recently, such as Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, and Frankie Montas, leaving the system with less depth than it has had in recent years, and injuries have taken a toll on the pitching depth. Some of the team's top pitching prospects in A.J. Puk, James Kaprielian, Grant Holmes, and Daulton Jefferies combined to throw all of eight innings in 2018, leaving the system mostly hitting-heavy. There is a lot of high ceiling talent here, though the A's do have their share of safe bets too when it comes to hitters.
Affiliates: AAA Nashville Sounds*, AA Midland RockHounds, High A Stockton Ports, Class A Beloit Snappers, Short Season Vermont Lake Monsters, complex level AZL and DSL Athletics
*AAA affiliate will move from Nashville, TN to Las Vegas, NV in 2019
The Headliner: LHP Jesus Luzardo
21 year old Jesus Luzardo, who came over from the Nationals in the Sean Doolittle trade, is in my opinion the top left handed pitching prospect in all of baseball. The 6'1" lefty, a 2016 alumnus of Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, dominated the minors in 2018 by putting up a 2.88 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 129/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.1 innings at High A Stockton, AA Midland, and AAA Nashville, though he was hit around a bit at the last stop. He was excellent at Stockton (1.23 ERA, 25/5 K/BB in 14.2 IP) and Midland (2.29 ERA, 86/18 K/BB in 78.2 IP), but his four starts in Nashville (7.31 ERA, 18/7 K/BB in 16 IP) skewed his numbers a bit. Still, Luzardo throws in the mid 90's with very good secondary stuff, and with his advanced command, he's a truly complete pitcher with ace potential, even Rookie of the Year potential if he gets called up early enough in 2019. A's fans should be very excited over their Peruvian-American star prospect, one who could be the next Sonny Gray or better in Oakland, starting this coming season.
Outfielders/Catcher: C Sean Murphy, OF Greg Deichmann, OF Lazaro Armenteros, OF Austin Beck, OF Jameson Hannah, and OF Kyler Murray
The A's have an interesting group of outfielders, mostly towards the bottom of the system, and there is a good mix of skills down there. Most of them are fast and good defenders, though there is some power in the group and each player is pretty unique. I'll start with the catcher that I threw onto this list, 24 year old Sean Murphy. Murphy is a fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block, frame, and throw with any catcher in the minors. Any type of production at all, such as in 2017 when he slashed .250/.313/.410 with 13 home runs, would be enough to make him a valuable back-up, but this year he broke out by slashing .285/.361/.489 with eight home runs and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at AA Midland. He missed a month and a half with a broken hand, but the power he showed (he also hit 27 doubles) could actually make him a starting catcher in the majors, something that is tough to find nowadays. He probably doesn't hit for high averages or even get on base at a high rate, but with some power and that great defense, he's one of the better catching prospects in baseball. 23 year old Greg Deichmann, a 6'2" outfielder, had a disappointing first full season this year by slashing .216/.294/.417 with seven home runs and a 71/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games between High A Stockton and complex ball rehab, missing a big chunk of the season with a wrist injury. He was known for his power back at LSU, but the wrist injury may have sapped some of that this year, and he'll need that power to overcome his swing and miss tendencies. He'll get another shot in 2019, where a healthy Deichmann could break out with plenty of home runs, but that hinges on his ability to make contact against pro stuff. 19 year old Lazaro Armenteros and 20 year old Austin Beck are fairly similar prospects, both joining the system amid plenty of fanfare in 2017 and showing similar skill sets while they played together at Class A Beloit this year. Armenteros slashed .277/.374/.401 with eight home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 115/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, while Beck slashed .296/.335/.383 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 117/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games. While Armenteros posted numbers along the lines of what you would expect, showing some power, speed, and patience, Beck's numbers didn't quite match the scouting reports. He has a ton of raw power in his quick bat, but instead of hitting a bunch of home runs, he hit 29 doubles (plus four triples), not tapping into that home run power enough. Hopefully, the power will manifest itself soon, and with his high-level defense, the 2017 sixth overall pick could be an impact player on both sides of the ball. As for Armenteros, his offensive outlook is similar but he doesn't quite play the same defense as Beck. 21 year old Jameson Hannah doesn't quite have the offensive upside as Armenteros or Beck, but the 2018 second rounder (50th overall) has a good shot to become fourth outfielder or even a decent regular. Hannah slashed .279/.347/.384 with a home run, six stolen bases, and a 24/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at short season Vermont in his pro debut. His best tool is his speed, which goes a long way on the bases and in the outfield, and he also gets on base at a high rate as an advanced hitter. He lacks power, putting pressure on his on-base ability to play up if he wants to start. Lastly, we have 21 year old Kyler Murray, perhaps the most interesting prospect in baseball. He hasn't played yet despite being drafted ninth overall in 2018, and that's because he's busy getting ready for the College Football Playoff after winning the Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's quarterback. As you would expect, he's both raw and ultra athletic, showing great speed and the ability to make adjustments on the field. After failing to produce much at the plate during his first two years in college baseball, he broke out with a big year last year and the A's hope he can continue that upward trajectory in the minors. At this point, he shows an average bat with a tendency to swing and miss, but as he focuses on baseball alone, he should improve. Just how much he improves will be the difference as to whether he's a fourth outfielder or an impact starter, but he's an exciting prospect to have in the system. There have been rumors that he wants to go to the NFL instead, but at this point that is unlikely.
Infielders: SS Jorge Mateo, 3B Sheldon Neuse, 3B Nate Mondou, SS Kevin Merrell, SS Nick Allen, and SS Jeremy Eierman
As with the outfield, the infield features a diverse array of players that can all do different things. There's not much in terms of impact talent here, though some guys (particularly Mateo and Eierman) have the potential to develop into impact prospects down the road. 23 year old Jorge Mateo is very well known, having come over from the Yankees in the Sonny Gray deal in the midst of a big 2017 (.267/.322/.459, 12 HR, 52 SB). His 2018 was a bit of a disappointment, as he slashed .230/.280/.353 with three home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 139/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AAA Nashville. His aggressive approach did not hold up well against the most advanced pitching in the minors, but he did continue to show off his blazing speed and good gap power. Though he only hit three home runs, he knocked 17 doubles and 16 triples, so he's not just a singles hitter. Defensively, he looks good enough defensively to stick at shortstop, but second base or center field may be in his future due to Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman owning the left side of the Oakland infield. Another year in AAA could be all he needs to get his bat going against advanced pitching, in which case he could be a valuable starter for the A's in late 2019 or 2020, but otherwise he'll end up a speedy utility man. 24 year old Sheldon Neuse came over with Jesus Luzardo in the Sean Doolittle trade, though like Mateo, his 2017 (.321/.382/.502, 16 HR) was much better than his 2018. This year, he slashed .263/.304/.357 with five home runs and a 172/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at Nashville, looking overmatched by upper level pitching and not getting to his power nearly as often as he would have liked to. Overall he has a pretty average bat, which is okay because he's up at the top of the minors and plays a pretty good third base. He's blocked by Chapman there, though he could try his hand at second and probably ends up a utility bat anyways given his strikeout issues. 23 year old Nate Mondou had a good season, slashing .279/.356/.399 with eight home runs, ten stolen bases, and an 84/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 136 games between High A Stockton and AA Midland, though most of his production came at hitter-friendly Stockton, which is also the lower level (.291/.361/.448 vs .255/.345/.297). He's a patient hitter with a good approach at the plate, though he is just an average hitter overall and is unlikely to challenge for a starting spot, instead looking like a utility guy. 23 year old Kevin Merrell is an interesting prospect, one whose numbers haven't quite matched the scouting reports. In 2018, he slashed .291/.335/.365 with no home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 70/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games between Stockton and rehab work in complex and short season ball. He's one of the fastest players in the system, possibly behind only Jorge Mateo and Kyler Murray, but that didn't translate into stolen bases at Stockton this year as he was slowed by injury. He also makes ready contact and can get on base, but again the numbers didn't quite match (he hit just .267/.308/.326 at Stockton), though he was never expected to hit for much power. 2018 was disappointing, but the A's hope he can prove himself as a high on-base, high steal utility prospect in 2019. 20 year old Nick Allen is interesting for different reasons, coming off a season where he slashed just .239/.301/.302 with no home runs, 24 stolen bases, and an 85/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Beloit. He didn't hit a lick, but that was expected because the A's drafted him for his defense, hoping the bat would develop in time. He's a superb defender at shortstop, one who can not only stick there but win Gold Gloves too. His bat is far behind his glove, and he's listed at just 5'9" and 155 pounds, so the A's will continue to work with him to develop some gap power. The lowish strikeout rate (16.6%) was nice given that pitchers were probably going right after him, so there is something to build on offensively. Lastly, 22 year old Jeremy Eierman was just drafted in the competitive balance round (70th overall) out of Missouri State, and he slashed .235/.283/.381 with eight home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 70/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Vermont. He has a high ceiling with power and good defense on the left side of the infield, possibly even at shortstop, but his approach needs a lot of work for a college hitter and he might not be up in the majors for a little while. If he cuts down the strikeouts dramatically, he could be an impactful starting infielder in the long run.
Injured Pitchers: LHP A.J. Puk, RHP Grant Holmes, RHP James Kaprielian, and RHP Daulton Jefferies
As I wrote at the top, this entire group combined to throw just eight innings in 2018, yet all are good enough pitching prospects that they still seriously factor into the A's' future. I'll start with 23 year old A.J. Puk, a 6'7" lefty who was drafted sixth overall out of Florida in 2016. In 2017, his only full season, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 184/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 innings at High A Stockton and AA Midland, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and after missing that season, he'll probably get a late start to 2019 as well. Still, when he steps back on the mound at some point next spring, he'll probably be the A's' top pitching prospect if Jesus Luzardo has exceeded rookie limits at that point. He throws in the mid to upper 90's and misses bats with a wicked slider, helping him mount up strikeouts at an incredible rate. He was supposed to spend 2018 working on his changeup and command, both of which are coming along but which need considerable work if he wants to start in the majors, so that work will be pushed to 2019. If he can take care of just one of those two, he will be a useful mid-rotation starter, and if he can take care of both, he'll be battling Luzardo for the role of #1 starter in Oakland. However, if he remains a fastball/slider pitcher only, he would be a very good late-inning reliever. I played against 22 year old Grant Holmes' former Conway (SC) High School in 2015, the year after he graduated and was drafted in the first round (22nd overall) by the Dodgers, but I'm not sure I would have wanted to face mid 90's sinkers. Holmes came over in the Josh Reddick trade in 2016 and after a pretty decent 2017 at AA Midland (4.49 ERA, 150/61 K/BB) he missed all but two games in 2018 with a shoulder injury. The good news is that he was healthy by the end of the season and made two pretty good starts at Stockton (6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K), and he should be ready to go for another crack at the high minors in 2019 at 23 years old. Aside from that great sinker, Holmes throws a very good curveball and a decent changeup with just enough command to make it all work, so he's really only one adjustment away from being a major league starter. In a healthy 2019, if he can improve that command a little, he could be a #3 or #4 starter by mid-season. 24 year old James Kaprielian, yet another former first round pick (16th overall out of UCLA in 2015), came over from the Yankees in the Sonny Gray trade. Tommy John surgery wiped out both his 2017 and 2018 seasons, and he only threw 29.1 minor league innings from 2015-2016, so the fact that he is still considered a valuable prospect is a testament to his skill. Since he hasn't pitched much at all over the past three seasons, it's hard to say exactly what his stuff will look like in 2019, but back when he was healthy he sat in the low 90's with a very advanced arsenal overall, and with his great command, he already looked the part of a major league pitcher and could have moved very quickly. Indeed, in his 29.1 career minor league innings, he has a 2.45 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/7 strikeout to walk ratio. Once healthy in 2019, the first box to check will be making sure he's still the same pitcher he was a couple years ago, but if he is, he could be up in the majors much sooner rather than later a a mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Daulton Jefferies is the only pitcher on this list who wasn't a first rounder, having been drafted in the competitive balance round (37th overall, just missed!) in 2016 out of Cal-Berkeley. Like Kaprielian, he has been injured nearly constantly, throwing just 20.1 innings over his three years in the minors, though he holds a 2.21 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 28/3 strikeout to walk ratio when he's on the mound. Tommy John surgery and a slow recovery has been the issue for him as well, and while his arsenal isn't quite as advanced as Kaprielian's, he still has good command of pretty good stuff and should move fairly quickly when he returns for a healthy 2019. I like Kaprielian better as a prospect, but Jefferies could still be a #4 starter, though there is significant reliever risk.
Healthy Pitchers: RHP Parker Dunshee, RHP Brian Howard, RHP Wyatt Marks, and RHP Brady Feigl
So the A's have lots of injured pitchers who could be impact starters down the road, but what do they have left in terms of guys who actually pitched in 2018? The answer is not much in terms of impact pitching talent (behind Jesus Luzardo, obviously), but there are some interesting back-end starter types and out of the players I chose to highlight, they're all 23. 23 year old Parker Dunshee was fantastic in the mid-minors this year, posting a 2.33 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 163/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 150.2 innings between High A Stockton and AA Midland, losing no effectiveness at the higher level and bringing his career minor league ERA to 1.98. His stuff is just average, as he throws a low 90's fastball with decent secondary pitches, but he commands it all very well and knows how to mix his pitches to keep hitters off balance well enough to dominate everywhere he has been. He looks like a #5 starter at this point, but these guys can sneak up on you and he shouldn't be counted out for more just yet. As a fun aside, he was teammates with Nate Mondou (see infielders section) at Wake Forest from 2014-2016, now again at AA Midland, and potentially in the future in Oakland. 23 year old Brian Howard had a great season right alongside Dunshee, posting a 2.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 140/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.1 innings at Stockton and Midland, though unlike Dunshee he was noticeably better at the lower level. Howard, out of TCU, is an absolute string bean at 6'9" and 185 pounds, using his height to make his average stuff play up. He has a similar outlook to Dunshee given his similar skills and performance, and while some would give him the higher ceiling due to his height (pun completely intended), I hesitate to project further height-related development to guys his age; I think he is what he is at this point, give or take a few mechanical adjustments. 23 year old Wyatt Marks posted a 3.30 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 159/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings between Class A Beloit and Stockton, blowing his good fastball/curveball combination by A ball hitters who weren't quite as advanced. His mediocre command and lack of a trustworthy changeup give him reliever risk, with his fastball and curveball not being quite good enough to make up for deficiencies on those fronts. There is still an outside shot he can make it to the majors as a starter, but as a reliever he could be fairly valuable. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Feigl (not to be confused with 27 year old Rangers minor league pitcher Brady Fiegl) was just drafted out of Ole Miss in the fifth round in 2018, and he had a successful debut in which he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings between short season Vermont and Beloit. The 6'5" right profiles as a workhorse back-end starter type, one who could move through the minor leagues fairly quickly but whose upside is limited.
Affiliates: AAA Nashville Sounds*, AA Midland RockHounds, High A Stockton Ports, Class A Beloit Snappers, Short Season Vermont Lake Monsters, complex level AZL and DSL Athletics
*AAA affiliate will move from Nashville, TN to Las Vegas, NV in 2019
The Headliner: LHP Jesus Luzardo
21 year old Jesus Luzardo, who came over from the Nationals in the Sean Doolittle trade, is in my opinion the top left handed pitching prospect in all of baseball. The 6'1" lefty, a 2016 alumnus of Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, dominated the minors in 2018 by putting up a 2.88 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 129/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.1 innings at High A Stockton, AA Midland, and AAA Nashville, though he was hit around a bit at the last stop. He was excellent at Stockton (1.23 ERA, 25/5 K/BB in 14.2 IP) and Midland (2.29 ERA, 86/18 K/BB in 78.2 IP), but his four starts in Nashville (7.31 ERA, 18/7 K/BB in 16 IP) skewed his numbers a bit. Still, Luzardo throws in the mid 90's with very good secondary stuff, and with his advanced command, he's a truly complete pitcher with ace potential, even Rookie of the Year potential if he gets called up early enough in 2019. A's fans should be very excited over their Peruvian-American star prospect, one who could be the next Sonny Gray or better in Oakland, starting this coming season.
Outfielders/Catcher: C Sean Murphy, OF Greg Deichmann, OF Lazaro Armenteros, OF Austin Beck, OF Jameson Hannah, and OF Kyler Murray
The A's have an interesting group of outfielders, mostly towards the bottom of the system, and there is a good mix of skills down there. Most of them are fast and good defenders, though there is some power in the group and each player is pretty unique. I'll start with the catcher that I threw onto this list, 24 year old Sean Murphy. Murphy is a fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block, frame, and throw with any catcher in the minors. Any type of production at all, such as in 2017 when he slashed .250/.313/.410 with 13 home runs, would be enough to make him a valuable back-up, but this year he broke out by slashing .285/.361/.489 with eight home runs and a 50/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at AA Midland. He missed a month and a half with a broken hand, but the power he showed (he also hit 27 doubles) could actually make him a starting catcher in the majors, something that is tough to find nowadays. He probably doesn't hit for high averages or even get on base at a high rate, but with some power and that great defense, he's one of the better catching prospects in baseball. 23 year old Greg Deichmann, a 6'2" outfielder, had a disappointing first full season this year by slashing .216/.294/.417 with seven home runs and a 71/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games between High A Stockton and complex ball rehab, missing a big chunk of the season with a wrist injury. He was known for his power back at LSU, but the wrist injury may have sapped some of that this year, and he'll need that power to overcome his swing and miss tendencies. He'll get another shot in 2019, where a healthy Deichmann could break out with plenty of home runs, but that hinges on his ability to make contact against pro stuff. 19 year old Lazaro Armenteros and 20 year old Austin Beck are fairly similar prospects, both joining the system amid plenty of fanfare in 2017 and showing similar skill sets while they played together at Class A Beloit this year. Armenteros slashed .277/.374/.401 with eight home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 115/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games, while Beck slashed .296/.335/.383 with two home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 117/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games. While Armenteros posted numbers along the lines of what you would expect, showing some power, speed, and patience, Beck's numbers didn't quite match the scouting reports. He has a ton of raw power in his quick bat, but instead of hitting a bunch of home runs, he hit 29 doubles (plus four triples), not tapping into that home run power enough. Hopefully, the power will manifest itself soon, and with his high-level defense, the 2017 sixth overall pick could be an impact player on both sides of the ball. As for Armenteros, his offensive outlook is similar but he doesn't quite play the same defense as Beck. 21 year old Jameson Hannah doesn't quite have the offensive upside as Armenteros or Beck, but the 2018 second rounder (50th overall) has a good shot to become fourth outfielder or even a decent regular. Hannah slashed .279/.347/.384 with a home run, six stolen bases, and a 24/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at short season Vermont in his pro debut. His best tool is his speed, which goes a long way on the bases and in the outfield, and he also gets on base at a high rate as an advanced hitter. He lacks power, putting pressure on his on-base ability to play up if he wants to start. Lastly, we have 21 year old Kyler Murray, perhaps the most interesting prospect in baseball. He hasn't played yet despite being drafted ninth overall in 2018, and that's because he's busy getting ready for the College Football Playoff after winning the Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's quarterback. As you would expect, he's both raw and ultra athletic, showing great speed and the ability to make adjustments on the field. After failing to produce much at the plate during his first two years in college baseball, he broke out with a big year last year and the A's hope he can continue that upward trajectory in the minors. At this point, he shows an average bat with a tendency to swing and miss, but as he focuses on baseball alone, he should improve. Just how much he improves will be the difference as to whether he's a fourth outfielder or an impact starter, but he's an exciting prospect to have in the system. There have been rumors that he wants to go to the NFL instead, but at this point that is unlikely.
Infielders: SS Jorge Mateo, 3B Sheldon Neuse, 3B Nate Mondou, SS Kevin Merrell, SS Nick Allen, and SS Jeremy Eierman
As with the outfield, the infield features a diverse array of players that can all do different things. There's not much in terms of impact talent here, though some guys (particularly Mateo and Eierman) have the potential to develop into impact prospects down the road. 23 year old Jorge Mateo is very well known, having come over from the Yankees in the Sonny Gray deal in the midst of a big 2017 (.267/.322/.459, 12 HR, 52 SB). His 2018 was a bit of a disappointment, as he slashed .230/.280/.353 with three home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 139/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AAA Nashville. His aggressive approach did not hold up well against the most advanced pitching in the minors, but he did continue to show off his blazing speed and good gap power. Though he only hit three home runs, he knocked 17 doubles and 16 triples, so he's not just a singles hitter. Defensively, he looks good enough defensively to stick at shortstop, but second base or center field may be in his future due to Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman owning the left side of the Oakland infield. Another year in AAA could be all he needs to get his bat going against advanced pitching, in which case he could be a valuable starter for the A's in late 2019 or 2020, but otherwise he'll end up a speedy utility man. 24 year old Sheldon Neuse came over with Jesus Luzardo in the Sean Doolittle trade, though like Mateo, his 2017 (.321/.382/.502, 16 HR) was much better than his 2018. This year, he slashed .263/.304/.357 with five home runs and a 172/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at Nashville, looking overmatched by upper level pitching and not getting to his power nearly as often as he would have liked to. Overall he has a pretty average bat, which is okay because he's up at the top of the minors and plays a pretty good third base. He's blocked by Chapman there, though he could try his hand at second and probably ends up a utility bat anyways given his strikeout issues. 23 year old Nate Mondou had a good season, slashing .279/.356/.399 with eight home runs, ten stolen bases, and an 84/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 136 games between High A Stockton and AA Midland, though most of his production came at hitter-friendly Stockton, which is also the lower level (.291/.361/.448 vs .255/.345/.297). He's a patient hitter with a good approach at the plate, though he is just an average hitter overall and is unlikely to challenge for a starting spot, instead looking like a utility guy. 23 year old Kevin Merrell is an interesting prospect, one whose numbers haven't quite matched the scouting reports. In 2018, he slashed .291/.335/.365 with no home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 70/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games between Stockton and rehab work in complex and short season ball. He's one of the fastest players in the system, possibly behind only Jorge Mateo and Kyler Murray, but that didn't translate into stolen bases at Stockton this year as he was slowed by injury. He also makes ready contact and can get on base, but again the numbers didn't quite match (he hit just .267/.308/.326 at Stockton), though he was never expected to hit for much power. 2018 was disappointing, but the A's hope he can prove himself as a high on-base, high steal utility prospect in 2019. 20 year old Nick Allen is interesting for different reasons, coming off a season where he slashed just .239/.301/.302 with no home runs, 24 stolen bases, and an 85/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Beloit. He didn't hit a lick, but that was expected because the A's drafted him for his defense, hoping the bat would develop in time. He's a superb defender at shortstop, one who can not only stick there but win Gold Gloves too. His bat is far behind his glove, and he's listed at just 5'9" and 155 pounds, so the A's will continue to work with him to develop some gap power. The lowish strikeout rate (16.6%) was nice given that pitchers were probably going right after him, so there is something to build on offensively. Lastly, 22 year old Jeremy Eierman was just drafted in the competitive balance round (70th overall) out of Missouri State, and he slashed .235/.283/.381 with eight home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 70/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Vermont. He has a high ceiling with power and good defense on the left side of the infield, possibly even at shortstop, but his approach needs a lot of work for a college hitter and he might not be up in the majors for a little while. If he cuts down the strikeouts dramatically, he could be an impactful starting infielder in the long run.
Injured Pitchers: LHP A.J. Puk, RHP Grant Holmes, RHP James Kaprielian, and RHP Daulton Jefferies
As I wrote at the top, this entire group combined to throw just eight innings in 2018, yet all are good enough pitching prospects that they still seriously factor into the A's' future. I'll start with 23 year old A.J. Puk, a 6'7" lefty who was drafted sixth overall out of Florida in 2016. In 2017, his only full season, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 184/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 innings at High A Stockton and AA Midland, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2018 and after missing that season, he'll probably get a late start to 2019 as well. Still, when he steps back on the mound at some point next spring, he'll probably be the A's' top pitching prospect if Jesus Luzardo has exceeded rookie limits at that point. He throws in the mid to upper 90's and misses bats with a wicked slider, helping him mount up strikeouts at an incredible rate. He was supposed to spend 2018 working on his changeup and command, both of which are coming along but which need considerable work if he wants to start in the majors, so that work will be pushed to 2019. If he can take care of just one of those two, he will be a useful mid-rotation starter, and if he can take care of both, he'll be battling Luzardo for the role of #1 starter in Oakland. However, if he remains a fastball/slider pitcher only, he would be a very good late-inning reliever. I played against 22 year old Grant Holmes' former Conway (SC) High School in 2015, the year after he graduated and was drafted in the first round (22nd overall) by the Dodgers, but I'm not sure I would have wanted to face mid 90's sinkers. Holmes came over in the Josh Reddick trade in 2016 and after a pretty decent 2017 at AA Midland (4.49 ERA, 150/61 K/BB) he missed all but two games in 2018 with a shoulder injury. The good news is that he was healthy by the end of the season and made two pretty good starts at Stockton (6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K), and he should be ready to go for another crack at the high minors in 2019 at 23 years old. Aside from that great sinker, Holmes throws a very good curveball and a decent changeup with just enough command to make it all work, so he's really only one adjustment away from being a major league starter. In a healthy 2019, if he can improve that command a little, he could be a #3 or #4 starter by mid-season. 24 year old James Kaprielian, yet another former first round pick (16th overall out of UCLA in 2015), came over from the Yankees in the Sonny Gray trade. Tommy John surgery wiped out both his 2017 and 2018 seasons, and he only threw 29.1 minor league innings from 2015-2016, so the fact that he is still considered a valuable prospect is a testament to his skill. Since he hasn't pitched much at all over the past three seasons, it's hard to say exactly what his stuff will look like in 2019, but back when he was healthy he sat in the low 90's with a very advanced arsenal overall, and with his great command, he already looked the part of a major league pitcher and could have moved very quickly. Indeed, in his 29.1 career minor league innings, he has a 2.45 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and a 36/7 strikeout to walk ratio. Once healthy in 2019, the first box to check will be making sure he's still the same pitcher he was a couple years ago, but if he is, he could be up in the majors much sooner rather than later a a mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Daulton Jefferies is the only pitcher on this list who wasn't a first rounder, having been drafted in the competitive balance round (37th overall, just missed!) in 2016 out of Cal-Berkeley. Like Kaprielian, he has been injured nearly constantly, throwing just 20.1 innings over his three years in the minors, though he holds a 2.21 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 28/3 strikeout to walk ratio when he's on the mound. Tommy John surgery and a slow recovery has been the issue for him as well, and while his arsenal isn't quite as advanced as Kaprielian's, he still has good command of pretty good stuff and should move fairly quickly when he returns for a healthy 2019. I like Kaprielian better as a prospect, but Jefferies could still be a #4 starter, though there is significant reliever risk.
Healthy Pitchers: RHP Parker Dunshee, RHP Brian Howard, RHP Wyatt Marks, and RHP Brady Feigl
So the A's have lots of injured pitchers who could be impact starters down the road, but what do they have left in terms of guys who actually pitched in 2018? The answer is not much in terms of impact pitching talent (behind Jesus Luzardo, obviously), but there are some interesting back-end starter types and out of the players I chose to highlight, they're all 23. 23 year old Parker Dunshee was fantastic in the mid-minors this year, posting a 2.33 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 163/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 150.2 innings between High A Stockton and AA Midland, losing no effectiveness at the higher level and bringing his career minor league ERA to 1.98. His stuff is just average, as he throws a low 90's fastball with decent secondary pitches, but he commands it all very well and knows how to mix his pitches to keep hitters off balance well enough to dominate everywhere he has been. He looks like a #5 starter at this point, but these guys can sneak up on you and he shouldn't be counted out for more just yet. As a fun aside, he was teammates with Nate Mondou (see infielders section) at Wake Forest from 2014-2016, now again at AA Midland, and potentially in the future in Oakland. 23 year old Brian Howard had a great season right alongside Dunshee, posting a 2.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 140/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.1 innings at Stockton and Midland, though unlike Dunshee he was noticeably better at the lower level. Howard, out of TCU, is an absolute string bean at 6'9" and 185 pounds, using his height to make his average stuff play up. He has a similar outlook to Dunshee given his similar skills and performance, and while some would give him the higher ceiling due to his height (pun completely intended), I hesitate to project further height-related development to guys his age; I think he is what he is at this point, give or take a few mechanical adjustments. 23 year old Wyatt Marks posted a 3.30 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 159/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings between Class A Beloit and Stockton, blowing his good fastball/curveball combination by A ball hitters who weren't quite as advanced. His mediocre command and lack of a trustworthy changeup give him reliever risk, with his fastball and curveball not being quite good enough to make up for deficiencies on those fronts. There is still an outside shot he can make it to the majors as a starter, but as a reliever he could be fairly valuable. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Feigl (not to be confused with 27 year old Rangers minor league pitcher Brady Fiegl) was just drafted out of Ole Miss in the fifth round in 2018, and he had a successful debut in which he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings between short season Vermont and Beloit. The 6'5" right profiles as a workhorse back-end starter type, one who could move through the minor leagues fairly quickly but whose upside is limited.
Dodgers, Reds Engage in Blockbuster
Dodgers Get
RHP Homer Bailey (2019 Age: 33): 1-14, 6.09 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB, 106.1 IP
2B Jeter Downs (2019 Age: 20-21): 13 HR, .257/.351/.402, 37 SB, 118 wRC+ at Class A
RHP Josiah Gray (2019 Age: 21): 2-2, 2.58 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 59/17 K/BB, 52.1 IP in Rookie ball
Reds Get
OF Yasiel Puig (2019 Age: 28): 23 HR, .267/.327/.494, 15 SB, 123 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
OF Matt Kemp (2019 Age: 34): 21 HR, .290/.338/.481, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
RHP Alex Wood (2019 Age: 28): 9-7, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 135/40 K/BB, 151.2 IP
C Kyle Farmer (2019 Age: 28): 0 HR, .235/.312/.324, 0 SB, 76 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
$7 million
There is a lot going on in his trade, from money flying all over the place to the Reds thinking they can contend to the Dodgers potentially making a play at Bryce Harper. In terms of salary, Homer Bailey is owed $28 million on his contract but with deferred payments, not all of that will count towards the Dodgers' luxury tax. Matt Kemp is owed roughly $21.5 million, Puig will make about $11 million after arbitration, and Wood about $9 million. With the additional $7 million going from Los Angeles to Cincinnati and money being paid in different ways, the Dodgers drop something in the $15 million range in luxury tax-related salary.
Dodgers Perspective
First and foremost, the Dodgers cut salary here. That $15-ish million that is coming out of the Dodgers' luxury taxable salary will almost certainly go to acquiring some other free agent, likely an outfielder given that they just traded two. A.J. Pollock is one option, though of course, Bryce Harper is another. Signing Harper will push the Dodgers well over the luxury tax, but if they're willing to do so and potentially take penalties, Harper would fit right in in Los Angeles. Also, with Kemp and Puig out of the outfield, the Dodgers now have room to play Alex Verdugo every day. The 22 year old outfielder is an excellent pure hitter who can get on base at high clips, and with some power and speed, he looks like he could give them a fourth straight season with a serious NL Rookie of the Year contender or winner after Corey Seager (winner in 2016), Cody Bellinger (winner in 2017), and Walker Buehler (third place in 2018).
Among the players brought in, none figure to have an immediate impact on LA; this was a salary dump. Homer Bailey, who posted a 6.09 ERA over 20 starts, will never throw a pitch for the Dodgers - he has already been released, taking his $28 million from the Dodgers and saying "thank you" (in reality, his payments will be spread out). Even with Alex Wood leaving the rotation, the Dodgers have a full rotation in Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and some combination of Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, and Julio Urias. In terms of prospects, the they did pick up a couple of solid future pieces that can potentially cover them if their draft pick gets pushed down due to Harper-related luxury tax penalties. Jeter Downs, aside from having one of the coolest names in the minors (the Jeter does, in fact, come from Derek Jeter), is a scouting favorite with tools all over the place. He slashed .257/.351/.402 with 13 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Class A Dayton, showing an advanced feel for hitting to go along with great speed, pretty good defense, some power, and a reputation for being a hard worker. He doesn't turn 21 until July, when he'll be at High A and potentially knocking on the door to AA if the transition goes smoothly. His upside is that of a good starting second baseman, one who can get on base, make plays, and hit for some power. Josiah Gray, a 2018 draftee (72nd overall) out of Division II Le Moyne College up in Syracuse, is new to pitching as a converted shortstop, but he doesn't seem new when he's on the mound. In twelve starts at rookie level Greeneville, he posted a 2.58 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a 59/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings, his supposed "lack of feel" given his new position clearly not being a factor. He has a loose, fresh arm that tosses mid 90's fastball and an improving slider, though his changeup and command need some work if he wants to start in the majors. He has a high ceiling as a mid-rotation starter but also comes with reliever risk. And by the way, happy birthday to Josiah, who was traded on his 21st birthday.
Reds Perspective
While the Reds took on some payroll, roughly $7 million, it's hard to call this anything but a win for them. They moved Homer Bailey's un-movable contract, added three valuable players, and didn't have to give up any of their top prospects. Now, their team actually looks surprisingly decent. The outfield was extremely thin with just Jesse Winker, Philip Ervin, and Scott Schebler projected to start, and now manager David Bell can mix and match five outfielders who will all be valuable in the right matchups. In the rotation, Alex Wood gives them a reliable veteran in a group of young arms, and if Luis Castillo bounces back, it could be average. Overall, I don't think the Reds contend for the NL Central crown in what looks like a very tough division, but that doesn't mean they can't grab a Wild Card spot if a few things break in their favor. Keep in mind I haven't said anything about Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Scooter Gennett, or top prospect and likely 2019 contributor Nick Senzel. The risk is also lower for the Reds, as they can flip any of Puig, Kemp, or Wood at the trade deadline if they're not contending, recouping some of the value lost in Downs and Gray.
In terms of new Reds, Yasiel Puig is probably the headliner. Known for his flamboyant style on the field, Puig slashed .267/.327/.494 with 23 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 2018, which is more or less in line what he has done over the past few seasons. In Cincinnati, though, those numbers will probably go up due to Great American Ballpark's small dimensions. Meanwhile, Matt Kemp had a similar year at .290/.338/.481 with 21 home runs, though he is not as likely as Puig to maintain that production given his age (34) and inconsistent production over the past few seasons. Still, Great American Ballpark will give him a boost and and even in his worst offensive season, 2017, he still slashed .276/.318/.463 with 19 home runs for the Braves. The small ballpark might even mask some of his defensive concerns, and with five average outfielders now in Cincinnati, he probably won't play every day. Kemp can platoon with Schebler in left while Puig can platoon with Jesse Winker in right. On the mound, new starter Alex Wood has been up and down over the past couple of seasons, settling in the middle in 2018 by posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 135/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 151.2 innings, and he'll have more breathing room in a less crowded Cincinnati rotation. Now paired with Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani at the top of the rotation, that's a respectable front three. The final two spots will go to some combination of Cody Reed, Tyler Mahle, Sal Romano, and Robert Stephenson, which in theory should give the Reds a pretty decent rotation that could make a run at a playoff spot. Lastly, catcher Kyle Farmer caught Wood back in 2010-2012, when both were teammates at the University of Georgia, then again in 2017-2018 with the Dodgers. He'll follow Wood to Cincinnati, where he'll likely compete with fellow former SEC catcher Curt Casali (Vanderbilt 2008-2011) to back up starter Tucker Barnhart. Farmer slashed a respectable .235/.312/.324 in 39 games in LA this year, showing a light bat and an average glove.
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Reviewing the Pittsburgh Pirates Farm System
The Pirates' system isn't very deep, but it has quite a few exciting prospects at the top, most notably starting pitcher Mitch Keller. Aside from Keller, it's pretty hitter-heavy, especially now with Shane Baz dealt to the Rays. Among those hitters, the Pirates have all the bases covered with power bats, on-base guys, outfielders, infielders, etc. The system is fairly average overall, though it could have been better if the Pirates had gotten more in the Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen trades.
Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A West Virginia Power*, Short Season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
*Class A Affiliate will move from Charleston, WV to Greensboro, NC in 2019
The Headliner: RHP Mitch Keller
22 year old Mitch Keller is the most important player in this farm system for multiple reasons. First off, he's their best prospect by a good margin, but in a system that really lacks in pitching depth, Keller keeps it from being completely empty on that front. In 2018, he went 12-4 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 135/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.1 innings at High A Bradenton, AA Altoona, and AAA Indianapolis, dominating the two lower levels before holding his own at the highest. He throws mid 90's with a good curveball, a decent changeup, and great command, looking like a good bet to become a future #2 starter on the right days. On the wrong days, his command can still get away from him, but those days are not common and he should be ready for the major league rotation early in 2019, perhaps even on Opening Day. I don't think he ends up an ace but he should be an immediate contributor and should hold down a #2 or #3 spot in the rotation for a long time.
High Minors Infielders: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, 1B Will Craig, 2B Kevin Newman, 2B Kevin Kramer, SS Cole Tucker, and SS Stephen Alemais
This is by far the deepest contingent in the Pirates' farm system. They have plenty of AA and AAA infielders who will be ready in 2019, and they should have no problem plugging holes there from their farm system. The biggest name among them is 21 year old Ke'Bryan Hayes, a third baseman with a major league ready bat already. In 2018, he slashed .293/.375/.444 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 84/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 117 games at AA Altoona, showing an all around skill set that could make him a five tool player at the major league level. He has a mature approach at the plate, can steal a base, and plays great defense at third base, with the only question being his power development. He's 6'1", solidly built, and hits plenty of extra base hits, so scouts have always thought the home run power would manifest itself, but to this point it has not. If his power does not develop further, he's probably an average third baseman with a good glove, which is a win in its own right, but if he does figure out how to get the ball over the fence more often he could be a star in Pittsburgh. Across the diamond, 24 year old Will Craig hit .248/.321/.448 with 20 home runs and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Altoona, showing plenty of power but not always getting to it. The first baseman will need to get to that power because of his limited value on defense, though right now he looks like a bench bat rather than a starter. 25 year olds Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer have a lot in common. Besides their first names and the fact that their last names make for fun Seinfeld jokes, they were drafted together in 2015 with Newman being a first round pick (19th overall) out of Arizona and Kramer coming in the second round (62nd overall) out of UCLA. Both are middle infielders known for hit over power, and both reached the majors for the first time in 2018. Newman slashed .302/.350/.407 with four home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at AAA Indianapolis, then hit .209/.247/.231 in 31 major league games. Meanwhile, Kramer slashed .311/.365/.492 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen base, and a 127/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Indianapolis, then .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games. Newman has the steadier glove and is more likely to stick at shortstop, while Kramer is more likely a second baseman. At the plate, Newman makes better contact and is more likely to hit in the majors, but Kramer had a power outburst at AAA in 2018 and posted better overall numbers. I think that Newman is a better bet to be a solid utility man for the Pirates, while Kramer might break through as a starter or end up bouncing between AAA and the majors as a journeyman. 22 year old Cole Tucker has a similar profile to both, but he's younger and doesn't share a Kevin or Seinfeld connection. Tucker was a high school draftee in 2014, coming out of a Phoenix high school in the first round (24th overall) and working his way up relatively slowly. In 2018, he slashed .259/.333/.356 with five home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Altoona, showing off great speed like Newman as well as a very competent glove at shortstop. However, his bat is a bit light, and while he is good at drawing walks, he probably ends up a utility infielder if he doesn't add at least a little bit of punch. However, if he can keep his on-base percentages high enough to allow him to steal a lot of bases, he could squeeze his way into a starting lineup even without power. Lastly, 23 year old Stephen Alemais is definitely a utility prospect, having slashed .279/.346/.346 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 69/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Altoona. His skill set is similar to Newman's overall, with a good glove for shortstop and a very good approach, but he has even less sock in his bat than Newman with virtually no power. His glove will get him to the majors, but he'll have to get on base to stay there as a utility glove.
And Four Outfielders: Bryan Reynolds, Jason Martin, Jared Oliva, and Tyler Gaffney
There are four upper level outfielders to track, and all are recent additions to the system. 23 year old Bryan Reynolds, who came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade, had a decent year at AA Altoona by slashing .302/.381/.438 with seven home runs and a 73/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, showing an advanced approach and the ability to barrel the ball up and get on base, but with fringy power. He could push his way to a starting spot if he continues to post high on-base percentages like he has been in the minors, but somehow adding more power will be the best way to crack the everyday lineup. Otherwise, he's likely a fourth outfielder, albeit a good one. 23 year old Jason Martin came over in the Gerrit Cole trade, ironically having attended the same Los Angeles-area high school as Cole. He had a good year in the upper minors, slashing .274/.337/.429 with 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Altoona and AAA Indianapolis. He was much better at Altoona (.325/.392/.522) than at Indianapolis (.211/.270/.319), which is a bit worrisome but which could also be ironed out with more reps in 2019. Like Reynolds, he looks like a fourth outfielder for now but could push his way to starting if he can make adjustments at the plate and carry his consistent hard contact up to the next level. 23 year old Jared Oliva was just drafted in the seventh round out of Arizona in 2017, but he made a bit of a name for himself with a solid season this year at High A Bradenton, slashing .275/.354/.424 with nine home runs, 33 stolen bases, and a 91/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games. He's kind of a fringy hitter both in terms of contact and power, but he can draw a walk and steal a base, making him an average overall offensive contributor. He's also average on defense, playing a decent center field, so he could work his way up to the majors as a fourth outfielder. Unlike Reynolds and Martin, though, I think it's unlikely that he manages to grab a starting role. Lastly, 27 year old Tyler Gaffney isn't exactly a conventional prospect, having spent the 2014-2017 seasons bouncing around NFL practice squads and injured reserve lists as a running back, technically winning Super Bowls XLIX and LI without actually playing a game. Now he's back in baseball, and he slashed .244/.353/.388 with six home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 54/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at High A Bradenton and Altoona. He's unlikely to make an impact on the Pirates, but he's an interesting story to watch.
Lower Level Hitters: 3B Oneil Cruz, OF Travis Swaggerty, OF Calvin Mitchell, OF Lolo Sanchez, OF Conner Uselton, and OF Brett Kinneman
The Pirates have a good amount of high ceiling talent down at the bottom of the system, though aside from Swaggerty, they all have high bust potential. You typically like depth this low in the system, though while the Pirates don't have that, at least there are quite a few with high ceilings. 20 year old Oneil Cruz is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, having just slashed .286/.343/.488 with 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 100/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at Class A West Virginia. He has a pretty unique prospect profile, with a recent growth spurt leaving him at 6'6" and potentially forcing him to move off of shortstop. He's still very athletic for his size, but the growth spurt affects his hitting as well. His fairly advanced approach allowed him to handle Class A pitching very well as a teenager this past season, and his big swing produced 46 extra base hits (including 14 home runs). However, he still swings and misses a lot because of the length of his swing, so he'll have to continue to tighten it up as he gets more coordinated. The ceiling is exceptional here, as he could end up an impact player both on offense and defense, but the risk is high as well. 21 year old Travis Swaggerty was just drafted in the first round (10th overall) out of South Alabama in 2018, slashing a respectable .239/.322/.383 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 58/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in short season ball and at Class A. Though he's just 5'11", he has nice power as well as a patient approach at the plate, which will bode well for him both in the on-base percentage and slugging percentage departments, plus his speed enables him to steal bases and play a good center field. Overall, he has five-tool upside, and with his patient, a advanced approach, his only real downside is in the strikeout department. Keeping his strikeouts down, which is not a given, will help him be a potential All Star in the majors, and he has a fairly high floor as a fourth outfielder. 19 year old Calvin Mitchell surprised some evaluators with a good year with Class A West Virginia this year, slashing .280/.344/.427 with ten home runs and a 109/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games. He was at one point considered a potential first round pick in 2017 before a rough spring dropped him to the second round (50th overall), where the Pirates took him with hopes of getting him back on the right track. His solid performance in Class A as a teenager showed that he is, though the Pirates do want that power to develop because he's not great defensively in the outfield. If the power does develop, he could end up a starter in Pittsburgh, but if it doesn't, or if it causes him to strike out more, there is bust risk at the higher levels. 19 year old Lolo Sanchez is a bit more under the radar than the 6'6" shortstop and high draft picks ahead of him on this list, but he's a solid sleeper prospect with breakout potential for 2019. This year, he slashed .243/.322/.328 with four home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 72/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A West Virginia, playing good outfield defense along the way. His stats don't stand out, but he doesn't turn 20 until April, by which time he'll already be in High A, and he seems to have a good grasp of handling older pitching. Though he lacks power, the rest of his game is pretty advanced and those guys can sneak up on you when they reach the majors. 20 year old Conner Uselton has a similar profile to Mitchell, though he has been slow in getting his pro career started due to injuries. In 2018, he slashed .225/.280/.250 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 43 games at rookie level Bristol, making it more or less a lost season for him. Once he gets healthy and going in 2019, he has a chance to show off some of the best raw power in the system, though he will have to watch his strikeouts. Consider him a wild card at this point, one who could shake off the slow start and end up being a 30 homer bat in the majors or who could end up fizzling out in A ball. Lastly, I'm a fan of 22 year old Brett Kinneman, a seventh round pick out of NC State in 2018 who slashed .253/.344/.413 with four home runs and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games in short season ball. He has some strikeout issues and isn't as polished as some other prospects his age, but he has a ton of power, draws plenty of walks, and could be a sleeper prospect who opens eyes in 2019. Keep an eye on him.
The Pitchers After Keller: LHP Brandon Waddell, RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Luis Escobar, RHP Travis MacGregor, RHP Steven Jennings, and RHP Braxton Ashcraft
It's a good thing that the Pirates have Mitch Keller, because otherwise, there really isn't much pitching depth in this system. Some guys near the top look like they could be marginal contributors, while others in the middle come with some upside and risk but aren't anything exciting yet, and the only other impact prospect beyond Keller was Shane Baz, who was traded to Tampa in the Chris Archer deal. It also doesn't help that they have failed to sign two high draft picks over the last couple of seasons, including 2016 41st overall pick Nick Lodolo and 2018 36th overall pick Gunnar Hoglund, who are now pitching at TCU and Ole Miss, respectively. We'll start with 24 year old Brandon Waddell, a starter who posted a 3.59 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 103/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis, performing better at the lower level (2.68 ERA) than at the higher one (4.19 ERA). The 6'3" lefty is a pretty average pitcher across the board, showing a low 90's fastball with a decent slider and changeup that he controls well enough, making him a candidate to be a #5 starter in the majors but not much more. He could be up in 2019, and if he doesn't make the rotation, the Pirates may be inclined to use him as a long reliever. 25 year old Clay Holmes is a slightly different pitcher, having posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings, all but six of which came with Indianapolis. He also threw 26.1 major league innings, posting a 6.84 ERA and an ugly 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. Holmes doesn't throw all that hard either, but his fastball has movement and he can turn it into a cutter when he wants to, though the rest of his stuff, like Waddell's, is average. I think he ends up a reliever, where his stuff can jump a little, and he could contribute from that role in 2019. Behind Waddell and Holmes is 22 year old Luis Escobar, who posted a 4.14 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings between High A Bradenton and Altoona. His stuff is better than both Waddell's and Holmes', with his fastball sitting comfortably in the low 90's and hitting the mid 90's and his curveball featuring more power. However, his strike throwing ability has not come along yet, so that will be the next step in developing as a starter. If not, he could make a pretty good reliever, but the upside is a little higher than the two names above him on this list. 21 year old Travis MacGregor had a nice season, posting a 3.18 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings, mostly at Class A West Virginia. He throws just as hard if not harder than Escobar, though the rest of his game is pretty raw and he'll need to improve his secondary stuff as he climbs the ladder. He's another pitcher in the "starter for now, possibly a reliever later" group. However, we'll have to wait to find out because he'll miss 2019 with Tommy John surgery. 20 year old Steven Jennings, a second round pick (42nd overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2017, has been slow to get things going in the minors, posting a 4.82 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 53/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. Ironically, he's a more complete pitcher than perhaps any name above him on this list except for Waddell, throwing in the low 90's with a full assortment of secondary pitches, all of which he can command reasonably well. However, he hasn't been able to turn anything into a weapon yet, hence his struggles in the Appalachian League, so the Pirates will have to continue to work with him to ensure he can continue to learn to use what he has to keep hitters off balance. 19 year old Braxton Ashcraft was just drafted in the second round (51st overall) out of a Waco high school in 2018, just getting his start with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.2 innings in complex ball. He throws a good fastball/slider combination, and at 6'5" he's projectable enough to add more velocity, but obviously he is young and raw and will need time to develop. There is mid rotation starter upside but of course plenty of risk.
Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A West Virginia Power*, Short Season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
*Class A Affiliate will move from Charleston, WV to Greensboro, NC in 2019
The Headliner: RHP Mitch Keller
22 year old Mitch Keller is the most important player in this farm system for multiple reasons. First off, he's their best prospect by a good margin, but in a system that really lacks in pitching depth, Keller keeps it from being completely empty on that front. In 2018, he went 12-4 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 135/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.1 innings at High A Bradenton, AA Altoona, and AAA Indianapolis, dominating the two lower levels before holding his own at the highest. He throws mid 90's with a good curveball, a decent changeup, and great command, looking like a good bet to become a future #2 starter on the right days. On the wrong days, his command can still get away from him, but those days are not common and he should be ready for the major league rotation early in 2019, perhaps even on Opening Day. I don't think he ends up an ace but he should be an immediate contributor and should hold down a #2 or #3 spot in the rotation for a long time.
High Minors Infielders: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, 1B Will Craig, 2B Kevin Newman, 2B Kevin Kramer, SS Cole Tucker, and SS Stephen Alemais
This is by far the deepest contingent in the Pirates' farm system. They have plenty of AA and AAA infielders who will be ready in 2019, and they should have no problem plugging holes there from their farm system. The biggest name among them is 21 year old Ke'Bryan Hayes, a third baseman with a major league ready bat already. In 2018, he slashed .293/.375/.444 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 84/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 117 games at AA Altoona, showing an all around skill set that could make him a five tool player at the major league level. He has a mature approach at the plate, can steal a base, and plays great defense at third base, with the only question being his power development. He's 6'1", solidly built, and hits plenty of extra base hits, so scouts have always thought the home run power would manifest itself, but to this point it has not. If his power does not develop further, he's probably an average third baseman with a good glove, which is a win in its own right, but if he does figure out how to get the ball over the fence more often he could be a star in Pittsburgh. Across the diamond, 24 year old Will Craig hit .248/.321/.448 with 20 home runs and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Altoona, showing plenty of power but not always getting to it. The first baseman will need to get to that power because of his limited value on defense, though right now he looks like a bench bat rather than a starter. 25 year olds Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer have a lot in common. Besides their first names and the fact that their last names make for fun Seinfeld jokes, they were drafted together in 2015 with Newman being a first round pick (19th overall) out of Arizona and Kramer coming in the second round (62nd overall) out of UCLA. Both are middle infielders known for hit over power, and both reached the majors for the first time in 2018. Newman slashed .302/.350/.407 with four home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at AAA Indianapolis, then hit .209/.247/.231 in 31 major league games. Meanwhile, Kramer slashed .311/.365/.492 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen base, and a 127/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Indianapolis, then .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games. Newman has the steadier glove and is more likely to stick at shortstop, while Kramer is more likely a second baseman. At the plate, Newman makes better contact and is more likely to hit in the majors, but Kramer had a power outburst at AAA in 2018 and posted better overall numbers. I think that Newman is a better bet to be a solid utility man for the Pirates, while Kramer might break through as a starter or end up bouncing between AAA and the majors as a journeyman. 22 year old Cole Tucker has a similar profile to both, but he's younger and doesn't share a Kevin or Seinfeld connection. Tucker was a high school draftee in 2014, coming out of a Phoenix high school in the first round (24th overall) and working his way up relatively slowly. In 2018, he slashed .259/.333/.356 with five home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Altoona, showing off great speed like Newman as well as a very competent glove at shortstop. However, his bat is a bit light, and while he is good at drawing walks, he probably ends up a utility infielder if he doesn't add at least a little bit of punch. However, if he can keep his on-base percentages high enough to allow him to steal a lot of bases, he could squeeze his way into a starting lineup even without power. Lastly, 23 year old Stephen Alemais is definitely a utility prospect, having slashed .279/.346/.346 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 69/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Altoona. His skill set is similar to Newman's overall, with a good glove for shortstop and a very good approach, but he has even less sock in his bat than Newman with virtually no power. His glove will get him to the majors, but he'll have to get on base to stay there as a utility glove.
And Four Outfielders: Bryan Reynolds, Jason Martin, Jared Oliva, and Tyler Gaffney
There are four upper level outfielders to track, and all are recent additions to the system. 23 year old Bryan Reynolds, who came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade, had a decent year at AA Altoona by slashing .302/.381/.438 with seven home runs and a 73/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, showing an advanced approach and the ability to barrel the ball up and get on base, but with fringy power. He could push his way to a starting spot if he continues to post high on-base percentages like he has been in the minors, but somehow adding more power will be the best way to crack the everyday lineup. Otherwise, he's likely a fourth outfielder, albeit a good one. 23 year old Jason Martin came over in the Gerrit Cole trade, ironically having attended the same Los Angeles-area high school as Cole. He had a good year in the upper minors, slashing .274/.337/.429 with 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Altoona and AAA Indianapolis. He was much better at Altoona (.325/.392/.522) than at Indianapolis (.211/.270/.319), which is a bit worrisome but which could also be ironed out with more reps in 2019. Like Reynolds, he looks like a fourth outfielder for now but could push his way to starting if he can make adjustments at the plate and carry his consistent hard contact up to the next level. 23 year old Jared Oliva was just drafted in the seventh round out of Arizona in 2017, but he made a bit of a name for himself with a solid season this year at High A Bradenton, slashing .275/.354/.424 with nine home runs, 33 stolen bases, and a 91/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games. He's kind of a fringy hitter both in terms of contact and power, but he can draw a walk and steal a base, making him an average overall offensive contributor. He's also average on defense, playing a decent center field, so he could work his way up to the majors as a fourth outfielder. Unlike Reynolds and Martin, though, I think it's unlikely that he manages to grab a starting role. Lastly, 27 year old Tyler Gaffney isn't exactly a conventional prospect, having spent the 2014-2017 seasons bouncing around NFL practice squads and injured reserve lists as a running back, technically winning Super Bowls XLIX and LI without actually playing a game. Now he's back in baseball, and he slashed .244/.353/.388 with six home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 54/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at High A Bradenton and Altoona. He's unlikely to make an impact on the Pirates, but he's an interesting story to watch.
Lower Level Hitters: 3B Oneil Cruz, OF Travis Swaggerty, OF Calvin Mitchell, OF Lolo Sanchez, OF Conner Uselton, and OF Brett Kinneman
The Pirates have a good amount of high ceiling talent down at the bottom of the system, though aside from Swaggerty, they all have high bust potential. You typically like depth this low in the system, though while the Pirates don't have that, at least there are quite a few with high ceilings. 20 year old Oneil Cruz is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, having just slashed .286/.343/.488 with 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 100/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at Class A West Virginia. He has a pretty unique prospect profile, with a recent growth spurt leaving him at 6'6" and potentially forcing him to move off of shortstop. He's still very athletic for his size, but the growth spurt affects his hitting as well. His fairly advanced approach allowed him to handle Class A pitching very well as a teenager this past season, and his big swing produced 46 extra base hits (including 14 home runs). However, he still swings and misses a lot because of the length of his swing, so he'll have to continue to tighten it up as he gets more coordinated. The ceiling is exceptional here, as he could end up an impact player both on offense and defense, but the risk is high as well. 21 year old Travis Swaggerty was just drafted in the first round (10th overall) out of South Alabama in 2018, slashing a respectable .239/.322/.383 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 58/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in short season ball and at Class A. Though he's just 5'11", he has nice power as well as a patient approach at the plate, which will bode well for him both in the on-base percentage and slugging percentage departments, plus his speed enables him to steal bases and play a good center field. Overall, he has five-tool upside, and with his patient, a advanced approach, his only real downside is in the strikeout department. Keeping his strikeouts down, which is not a given, will help him be a potential All Star in the majors, and he has a fairly high floor as a fourth outfielder. 19 year old Calvin Mitchell surprised some evaluators with a good year with Class A West Virginia this year, slashing .280/.344/.427 with ten home runs and a 109/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games. He was at one point considered a potential first round pick in 2017 before a rough spring dropped him to the second round (50th overall), where the Pirates took him with hopes of getting him back on the right track. His solid performance in Class A as a teenager showed that he is, though the Pirates do want that power to develop because he's not great defensively in the outfield. If the power does develop, he could end up a starter in Pittsburgh, but if it doesn't, or if it causes him to strike out more, there is bust risk at the higher levels. 19 year old Lolo Sanchez is a bit more under the radar than the 6'6" shortstop and high draft picks ahead of him on this list, but he's a solid sleeper prospect with breakout potential for 2019. This year, he slashed .243/.322/.328 with four home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 72/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A West Virginia, playing good outfield defense along the way. His stats don't stand out, but he doesn't turn 20 until April, by which time he'll already be in High A, and he seems to have a good grasp of handling older pitching. Though he lacks power, the rest of his game is pretty advanced and those guys can sneak up on you when they reach the majors. 20 year old Conner Uselton has a similar profile to Mitchell, though he has been slow in getting his pro career started due to injuries. In 2018, he slashed .225/.280/.250 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 43 games at rookie level Bristol, making it more or less a lost season for him. Once he gets healthy and going in 2019, he has a chance to show off some of the best raw power in the system, though he will have to watch his strikeouts. Consider him a wild card at this point, one who could shake off the slow start and end up being a 30 homer bat in the majors or who could end up fizzling out in A ball. Lastly, I'm a fan of 22 year old Brett Kinneman, a seventh round pick out of NC State in 2018 who slashed .253/.344/.413 with four home runs and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games in short season ball. He has some strikeout issues and isn't as polished as some other prospects his age, but he has a ton of power, draws plenty of walks, and could be a sleeper prospect who opens eyes in 2019. Keep an eye on him.
The Pitchers After Keller: LHP Brandon Waddell, RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Luis Escobar, RHP Travis MacGregor, RHP Steven Jennings, and RHP Braxton Ashcraft
It's a good thing that the Pirates have Mitch Keller, because otherwise, there really isn't much pitching depth in this system. Some guys near the top look like they could be marginal contributors, while others in the middle come with some upside and risk but aren't anything exciting yet, and the only other impact prospect beyond Keller was Shane Baz, who was traded to Tampa in the Chris Archer deal. It also doesn't help that they have failed to sign two high draft picks over the last couple of seasons, including 2016 41st overall pick Nick Lodolo and 2018 36th overall pick Gunnar Hoglund, who are now pitching at TCU and Ole Miss, respectively. We'll start with 24 year old Brandon Waddell, a starter who posted a 3.59 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 103/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis, performing better at the lower level (2.68 ERA) than at the higher one (4.19 ERA). The 6'3" lefty is a pretty average pitcher across the board, showing a low 90's fastball with a decent slider and changeup that he controls well enough, making him a candidate to be a #5 starter in the majors but not much more. He could be up in 2019, and if he doesn't make the rotation, the Pirates may be inclined to use him as a long reliever. 25 year old Clay Holmes is a slightly different pitcher, having posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings, all but six of which came with Indianapolis. He also threw 26.1 major league innings, posting a 6.84 ERA and an ugly 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. Holmes doesn't throw all that hard either, but his fastball has movement and he can turn it into a cutter when he wants to, though the rest of his stuff, like Waddell's, is average. I think he ends up a reliever, where his stuff can jump a little, and he could contribute from that role in 2019. Behind Waddell and Holmes is 22 year old Luis Escobar, who posted a 4.14 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings between High A Bradenton and Altoona. His stuff is better than both Waddell's and Holmes', with his fastball sitting comfortably in the low 90's and hitting the mid 90's and his curveball featuring more power. However, his strike throwing ability has not come along yet, so that will be the next step in developing as a starter. If not, he could make a pretty good reliever, but the upside is a little higher than the two names above him on this list. 21 year old Travis MacGregor had a nice season, posting a 3.18 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings, mostly at Class A West Virginia. He throws just as hard if not harder than Escobar, though the rest of his game is pretty raw and he'll need to improve his secondary stuff as he climbs the ladder. He's another pitcher in the "starter for now, possibly a reliever later" group. However, we'll have to wait to find out because he'll miss 2019 with Tommy John surgery. 20 year old Steven Jennings, a second round pick (42nd overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2017, has been slow to get things going in the minors, posting a 4.82 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 53/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. Ironically, he's a more complete pitcher than perhaps any name above him on this list except for Waddell, throwing in the low 90's with a full assortment of secondary pitches, all of which he can command reasonably well. However, he hasn't been able to turn anything into a weapon yet, hence his struggles in the Appalachian League, so the Pirates will have to continue to work with him to ensure he can continue to learn to use what he has to keep hitters off balance. 19 year old Braxton Ashcraft was just drafted in the second round (51st overall) out of a Waco high school in 2018, just getting his start with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.2 innings in complex ball. He throws a good fastball/slider combination, and at 6'5" he's projectable enough to add more velocity, but obviously he is young and raw and will need time to develop. There is mid rotation starter upside but of course plenty of risk.
Monday, December 17, 2018
Reviewing the New York Yankees Farm System
The Yankees' system isn't quite what it was just a few years ago, but they still have one of the better collections of arms in the minors. Per MLB.com, ten of their top twelve prospects and 17 of their top 23 are pitchers, with the Yankees doing especially well on the international market. Interestingly, every one of those pitchers is right handed. However, their core of hitters is very thin, especially behind top prospect Estevan Florial. This discrepancy between hitting and pitching depth probably makes the Yankees' system the most lopsided in baseball.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, Short Season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Advanced Arms: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Michael King, and RHP Trevor Stephan
There are so many interesting pitchers in the Yankees system, so I'm just going to move through the system from top to bottom. The advanced pitchers, all right handed, show a good mix of skills; some are starters, some relievers, some get by on command, and some just overpower their opponents. 24 year old Jonathan Loaisiga, whose name I am finally learning to spell, is the most recognizable name for numerous reasons. The 5'11" Nicaraguan isn't the biggest guy but comes in with a mid 90's fastball and an equally dangerous curveball/changeup combination, all of which he commands very well. He bounced around quite a bit in 2018, overall posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a wicked 67/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between one rehab start in complex ball and time split between High A Tampa and AA Trenton. He also made it into nine major league games, posting a respectable 5.11 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings. With his command of three good pitches, he is ready to take over as a major league starter full time if the Yankees decide to use him to replace Sonny Gray, with the ultimate projection of being a mid-rotation starter. 24 year old Chance Adams, for the first time in his career, did not dominate the minors in 2018. At AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre this year, he posted a 4.78 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 113/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, also tossing 7.2 major league innings with a 7.04 ERA and four strikeouts and walks apiece. His stuff and control are both a bit closer to average than Loaisiga, so he has a chance to be a fifth starter but more likely ends up one of those long relievers that the Yankees (smartly) love to use. 24 year old Domingo Acevedo has been a highly regarded prospect since forever, missing a lot of time to injuries along the way. In 2018, he posted a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings between short season ball and Trenton, battling blister problems along the way. The huge 6'7" Dominican sits in the mid 90's with good command and decent secondaries, but he naturally struggles with consistency because he can't stay healthy. A healthy Acevedo can be a useful mid-rotation starter, but he probably ends up a hard throwing reliever if that doesn't materialize; he can run it up to 103 in short stints. 23 year old Michael King, statistically, had the best season in the minors, at least statistically, this year by going 11-5 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings between Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre. That success came from his advanced pitchability which should make him a serviceable #4 or #5 starter, even though his stuff is just average. A New Englander out of Boston College, his instincts on the mound give him a shot to crack the Yankee rotation in 2019, if not with the highest ceiling. 23 year old Trevor Stephan was just drafted out of Arkansas in the third round (92nd overall) in 2017, posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 140/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings between Tampa and Trenton. He was better at Tampa, the lower level, but held his own in Trenton with a similar skill set to King. He's a bit bigger than King and throws a better slider, but his command and pitchability aren't quite as advanced.
Mid Level Arms: RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Nick Nelson, and RHP Clarke Schmidt
The middle of the system naturally features more upside and more risk, again with no notable left handed pitchers. 19 year old Deivi Garcia came into the season as an exciting prospect to watch, but 14 starts later, he might just be the best pitching prospect in the system. The 5'10" righty had a fantastic breakout season, posting a 2.55 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings between Class A Charleston, High A Tampa, and AA Trenton, getting better and better with each promotion. His most notable start came on August 6th with Tampa, when he struck out 12 of the 21 hitters he faced over seven perfect innings against Clearwater (Phillies). He throws in the low 90's with room for more velocity, spins a great curveball, and has advanced command for his age and stuff. Really, the only question with Garcia is durability, as he is skinny at just 5'10" and 165 pounds, and his 74 innings in 2018 actually marked a career high. He turns just 20 in May, and while he could be major league ready at some point next season, the Yankees will likely continue to handle him cautiously to help him build up strength. When it's said and done, he has ace potential and a higher floor than most prospects his age. 23 year old Albert Abreu, like Domingo Acevedo, has struggled with injuries but shows great upside. Fighting numerous nagging injuries in 2018, he posted a 5.20 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 74/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings across four levels, though most of his season was spent at Tampa. The 6'2" righty has exceptional arm strength, throwing his fastball in the mid 90's while also tossing very good secondary stuff. He doesn't command it consistently, but that may be a product of his inability to stay healthy and get consistent reps in. The Yankees have developed him as a starter and hope he can remain one, as he is talented enough to do so, but they may be forced to move him to the bullpen where he could run his fastball up to 100. 22 year old Garrett Whitlock and 23 year old Nick Nelson were mainstays in the Tampa rotation this year, along with Abreu, both showing mid-rotation potential at the major league level. Whitlock posted a 1.86 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings between Charleston, Tampa, and Trenton, while Nelson posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 144/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at the same three levels. Like Abreu, both spent most of the season at Tampa. Both have similar stuff from the right side, though Whitlock is just a little bit more advanced with both his stuff and command, making him the better bet to develop into something useful for New York. 22 year old Clarke Schmidt was a first round pick (16th overall) out of South Carolina in 2017 despite having recently undergone Tommy John surgery, so he didn't get his pro career started until 2018. The Yankees were very cautious with the 6'1" righty, limiting him to eight appearances where he had a 3.09 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 30/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings of rehab work in complex and short season ball. There is no question about his stuff, with a low to mid 90's sinker and a great array of secondary pitches, all of which he can command moderately well. Once fully healthy in 2019, he should be a fast riser through the system and could be a mid-rotation starter shortly.
The Youngest Arms: RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Nolan Martinez, and RHP Juan Then
At this time last year, Deivi Garcia would have been classified in this group, and he broke out in a big way to become arguably the system's top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to be active in the international market and have another group of talented young pitchers coming up through the bottom of the system, and any of them could be 2019's Garcia. Many of these pitchers have high ceilings, but as with any teenage pitchers, the risk is very high, with potential injuries or failures to hone command being likely obstacles. 19 year old Roansy Contreras began to break out in 2018, posting a 2.42 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 60/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings between Short Season Staten Island and Class A Charleston. He's raw with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, the same building blocks Garcia had last year, with the best place for improvement being his command and his changeup. He's a long way off, but further development in those two areas could make him a mid-rotation starter at the major league level or better. 20 year old Luis Gil pitched well as well, posting a 1.96 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between rookie level Pulaski and Staten Island. He throws harder than Contreras but his command is very much a work in progress, as he struggles to locate his pitches and hurts himself with walks. He has a high ceiling but at 20 years old, it's time for him to show at least some feel for the strike zone. 19 year old Luis Medina spent the year at Pulaski and was hit around a little, posting a 6.25 ERA, a 2.17 WHIP, and a 47/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings. His stuff is as good as anybody's in the system, tossing and upper 90's fastball with a great curveball/changeup combination, but his command is behind even Gil's as he simply cannot throw strikes. He's constantly falling behind in the count and then gets hit when he leaves pitches over the plate, but if he could at least somewhat know where the ball is going, he could start missing bats at staggering rates. He could be anything from a future ace to an A ball flameout, so his 2019 will be important to track. 19 year old Matt Sauer spent the year at Staten Island and posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings, showing more command and pitchability and less stuff than the two Luis's ahead of him. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a good curveball and plenty of arm strength, looking like a classic mid-rotation prospect with his fair share of work to do given that he's still a teenager. 20 year old Nolan Martinez has been slow to get his career moving, just making it to full season ball this year after being drafted in the third round (98th overall) out of high school in California in 2016. This year, he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings between Staten Island and Charleston, looking a lot better in Staten Island than Charleston. He's a projectable arm with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but he's still raw despite a few years of experience. The Yankees will continue to run him out as a starter but the bullpen may be in his future. Lastly, I really like 18 year old Juan Then. The skinny 6'1" righty posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings in complex ball, showing great strike-throwing ability for his age to go along with pretty good stuff. He's going to add more velocity to his low 90's fastball and he already has good feel for a changeup, with his command and pitchability proving to be beyond his years. Definitely watch Then in 2019.
The Hitters: OF Estevan Florial, SS Thairo Estrada, C Anthony Seigler, C Josh Breaux, OF Ryder Green, and OF Everson Pereira
The Yankees really don't have much position player depth, with only one true impact prospect and only a couple that I could really see evolving into impact prospects. The big name right now is 21 year old Estevan Florial, a toolsy outfielder with a high ceiling. He spent 2018 split between High A Tampa and complex ball rehab, slashing .283/.377/.422 overall but just .255/.354/.361 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 87/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at Tampa when you take out his complex ball work. He has both power and speed, and his plate discipline took a step forward this year, but he hasn't been able to put everything together quite yet and is still producing pedestrian numbers. The Yankees hope a healthy 2019 will be the year where he puts it all together and potentially ends up in the Bronx, where he could be an impact player. For now though, we're still playing wait and see as to whether he can get to his power enough to make an impact. 22 year old Thairo Estrada missed most of 2018 with a back injury, slashing .192/.210/.231 with 17 strikeouts to zero walks in the 18 games he did get into between Tampa and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He lacks power but gets on base consistently when healthy, and with his solid glove at shortstop, he has a high floor as a utility infielder in New York. If he can continue to get on base consistently at the major league level and the Yankees can find a spot for him, he could start, and on a less competitive team he could be looking at competing for a starting spot out of spring training. However, he's a Yankee for now, so utility infielder is his future for now. 19 year old Anthony Seigler was the Yankees' first round pick (23rd overall) out of a Georgia high school this year, then slashed .266/.379/.342 with a home run and a 12/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games between complex ball and rookie level Pulaski in his debut, looking better at the lower level. He's a competent defender who should stick as a catcher, and while his bat looks like hit over power at this point, there's more for him to tap into. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick when the Yankees made it, having ranked him 44th on my draft rankings, but if the Yankees can develop his bat while maintaining his defense, they could have a starting catcher on their hands. 21 year old Josh Breaux was the second round pick (61st overall) right after Seigler, coming from a Texas JuCo. He's also a catcher, and while there is significant risk that he ends up at first base rather than behind the plate, he has more power than Seigler but has more swing and miss, fitting the description of a high ceiling/low floor prospect. The power is real but I'm definitely concerned about his ability to get to it consistently, especially if he has to move off of catcher and his bat has to carry him. After taking Breaux, the Yankees took 18 year old Ryder Green out of a Knoxville high school in the third round (97th overall), and he slashed .203/.316/.392 with three home runs and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games in complex ball. A power hitting outfielder, I actually ranked him four spots ahead of Breaux in my draft rankings (83 vs 87). He has power but I'm worried that his swing isn't geared towards making contact in pro ball, so he'll have to alter it just a little to get his barrel in the zone for longer. If he can successfully make those mechanical changes, he could end up a solid power hitter. Lastly, 17 year old Everson Pereira is an extremely advanced player for his age, having slashed .263/.322/.389 with three home runs and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games at Pulaski. He plays a great center field and makes ready contact against older competition, and once he starts to develop some power and draw some walks, he should move through the minors relatively quickly for a player signed so young.
Affiliates: AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders, AA Trenton Thunder, High A Tampa Tarpons, Class A Charleston RiverDogs, Short Season Staten Island Yankees, rookie level Pulaski Yankees, complex level GCL and DSL Yankees
Advanced Arms: RHP Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP Chance Adams, RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Michael King, and RHP Trevor Stephan
There are so many interesting pitchers in the Yankees system, so I'm just going to move through the system from top to bottom. The advanced pitchers, all right handed, show a good mix of skills; some are starters, some relievers, some get by on command, and some just overpower their opponents. 24 year old Jonathan Loaisiga, whose name I am finally learning to spell, is the most recognizable name for numerous reasons. The 5'11" Nicaraguan isn't the biggest guy but comes in with a mid 90's fastball and an equally dangerous curveball/changeup combination, all of which he commands very well. He bounced around quite a bit in 2018, overall posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a wicked 67/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between one rehab start in complex ball and time split between High A Tampa and AA Trenton. He also made it into nine major league games, posting a respectable 5.11 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings. With his command of three good pitches, he is ready to take over as a major league starter full time if the Yankees decide to use him to replace Sonny Gray, with the ultimate projection of being a mid-rotation starter. 24 year old Chance Adams, for the first time in his career, did not dominate the minors in 2018. At AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre this year, he posted a 4.78 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 113/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, also tossing 7.2 major league innings with a 7.04 ERA and four strikeouts and walks apiece. His stuff and control are both a bit closer to average than Loaisiga, so he has a chance to be a fifth starter but more likely ends up one of those long relievers that the Yankees (smartly) love to use. 24 year old Domingo Acevedo has been a highly regarded prospect since forever, missing a lot of time to injuries along the way. In 2018, he posted a 2.99 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings between short season ball and Trenton, battling blister problems along the way. The huge 6'7" Dominican sits in the mid 90's with good command and decent secondaries, but he naturally struggles with consistency because he can't stay healthy. A healthy Acevedo can be a useful mid-rotation starter, but he probably ends up a hard throwing reliever if that doesn't materialize; he can run it up to 103 in short stints. 23 year old Michael King, statistically, had the best season in the minors, at least statistically, this year by going 11-5 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 152/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings between Tampa, Trenton, and Scranton-Wilkes Barre. That success came from his advanced pitchability which should make him a serviceable #4 or #5 starter, even though his stuff is just average. A New Englander out of Boston College, his instincts on the mound give him a shot to crack the Yankee rotation in 2019, if not with the highest ceiling. 23 year old Trevor Stephan was just drafted out of Arkansas in the third round (92nd overall) in 2017, posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 140/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings between Tampa and Trenton. He was better at Tampa, the lower level, but held his own in Trenton with a similar skill set to King. He's a bit bigger than King and throws a better slider, but his command and pitchability aren't quite as advanced.
Mid Level Arms: RHP Deivi Garcia, RHP Albert Abreu, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Nick Nelson, and RHP Clarke Schmidt
The middle of the system naturally features more upside and more risk, again with no notable left handed pitchers. 19 year old Deivi Garcia came into the season as an exciting prospect to watch, but 14 starts later, he might just be the best pitching prospect in the system. The 5'10" righty had a fantastic breakout season, posting a 2.55 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings between Class A Charleston, High A Tampa, and AA Trenton, getting better and better with each promotion. His most notable start came on August 6th with Tampa, when he struck out 12 of the 21 hitters he faced over seven perfect innings against Clearwater (Phillies). He throws in the low 90's with room for more velocity, spins a great curveball, and has advanced command for his age and stuff. Really, the only question with Garcia is durability, as he is skinny at just 5'10" and 165 pounds, and his 74 innings in 2018 actually marked a career high. He turns just 20 in May, and while he could be major league ready at some point next season, the Yankees will likely continue to handle him cautiously to help him build up strength. When it's said and done, he has ace potential and a higher floor than most prospects his age. 23 year old Albert Abreu, like Domingo Acevedo, has struggled with injuries but shows great upside. Fighting numerous nagging injuries in 2018, he posted a 5.20 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 74/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings across four levels, though most of his season was spent at Tampa. The 6'2" righty has exceptional arm strength, throwing his fastball in the mid 90's while also tossing very good secondary stuff. He doesn't command it consistently, but that may be a product of his inability to stay healthy and get consistent reps in. The Yankees have developed him as a starter and hope he can remain one, as he is talented enough to do so, but they may be forced to move him to the bullpen where he could run his fastball up to 100. 22 year old Garrett Whitlock and 23 year old Nick Nelson were mainstays in the Tampa rotation this year, along with Abreu, both showing mid-rotation potential at the major league level. Whitlock posted a 1.86 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 122/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings between Charleston, Tampa, and Trenton, while Nelson posted a 3.55 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 144/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at the same three levels. Like Abreu, both spent most of the season at Tampa. Both have similar stuff from the right side, though Whitlock is just a little bit more advanced with both his stuff and command, making him the better bet to develop into something useful for New York. 22 year old Clarke Schmidt was a first round pick (16th overall) out of South Carolina in 2017 despite having recently undergone Tommy John surgery, so he didn't get his pro career started until 2018. The Yankees were very cautious with the 6'1" righty, limiting him to eight appearances where he had a 3.09 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 30/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings of rehab work in complex and short season ball. There is no question about his stuff, with a low to mid 90's sinker and a great array of secondary pitches, all of which he can command moderately well. Once fully healthy in 2019, he should be a fast riser through the system and could be a mid-rotation starter shortly.
The Youngest Arms: RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Matt Sauer, RHP Nolan Martinez, and RHP Juan Then
At this time last year, Deivi Garcia would have been classified in this group, and he broke out in a big way to become arguably the system's top pitching prospect. Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to be active in the international market and have another group of talented young pitchers coming up through the bottom of the system, and any of them could be 2019's Garcia. Many of these pitchers have high ceilings, but as with any teenage pitchers, the risk is very high, with potential injuries or failures to hone command being likely obstacles. 19 year old Roansy Contreras began to break out in 2018, posting a 2.42 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 60/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings between Short Season Staten Island and Class A Charleston. He's raw with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, the same building blocks Garcia had last year, with the best place for improvement being his command and his changeup. He's a long way off, but further development in those two areas could make him a mid-rotation starter at the major league level or better. 20 year old Luis Gil pitched well as well, posting a 1.96 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 68/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 innings between rookie level Pulaski and Staten Island. He throws harder than Contreras but his command is very much a work in progress, as he struggles to locate his pitches and hurts himself with walks. He has a high ceiling but at 20 years old, it's time for him to show at least some feel for the strike zone. 19 year old Luis Medina spent the year at Pulaski and was hit around a little, posting a 6.25 ERA, a 2.17 WHIP, and a 47/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings. His stuff is as good as anybody's in the system, tossing and upper 90's fastball with a great curveball/changeup combination, but his command is behind even Gil's as he simply cannot throw strikes. He's constantly falling behind in the count and then gets hit when he leaves pitches over the plate, but if he could at least somewhat know where the ball is going, he could start missing bats at staggering rates. He could be anything from a future ace to an A ball flameout, so his 2019 will be important to track. 19 year old Matt Sauer spent the year at Staten Island and posted a 3.90 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings, showing more command and pitchability and less stuff than the two Luis's ahead of him. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a good curveball and plenty of arm strength, looking like a classic mid-rotation prospect with his fair share of work to do given that he's still a teenager. 20 year old Nolan Martinez has been slow to get his career moving, just making it to full season ball this year after being drafted in the third round (98th overall) out of high school in California in 2016. This year, he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings between Staten Island and Charleston, looking a lot better in Staten Island than Charleston. He's a projectable arm with a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, but he's still raw despite a few years of experience. The Yankees will continue to run him out as a starter but the bullpen may be in his future. Lastly, I really like 18 year old Juan Then. The skinny 6'1" righty posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings in complex ball, showing great strike-throwing ability for his age to go along with pretty good stuff. He's going to add more velocity to his low 90's fastball and he already has good feel for a changeup, with his command and pitchability proving to be beyond his years. Definitely watch Then in 2019.
The Hitters: OF Estevan Florial, SS Thairo Estrada, C Anthony Seigler, C Josh Breaux, OF Ryder Green, and OF Everson Pereira
The Yankees really don't have much position player depth, with only one true impact prospect and only a couple that I could really see evolving into impact prospects. The big name right now is 21 year old Estevan Florial, a toolsy outfielder with a high ceiling. He spent 2018 split between High A Tampa and complex ball rehab, slashing .283/.377/.422 overall but just .255/.354/.361 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and an 87/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at Tampa when you take out his complex ball work. He has both power and speed, and his plate discipline took a step forward this year, but he hasn't been able to put everything together quite yet and is still producing pedestrian numbers. The Yankees hope a healthy 2019 will be the year where he puts it all together and potentially ends up in the Bronx, where he could be an impact player. For now though, we're still playing wait and see as to whether he can get to his power enough to make an impact. 22 year old Thairo Estrada missed most of 2018 with a back injury, slashing .192/.210/.231 with 17 strikeouts to zero walks in the 18 games he did get into between Tampa and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. He lacks power but gets on base consistently when healthy, and with his solid glove at shortstop, he has a high floor as a utility infielder in New York. If he can continue to get on base consistently at the major league level and the Yankees can find a spot for him, he could start, and on a less competitive team he could be looking at competing for a starting spot out of spring training. However, he's a Yankee for now, so utility infielder is his future for now. 19 year old Anthony Seigler was the Yankees' first round pick (23rd overall) out of a Georgia high school this year, then slashed .266/.379/.342 with a home run and a 12/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games between complex ball and rookie level Pulaski in his debut, looking better at the lower level. He's a competent defender who should stick as a catcher, and while his bat looks like hit over power at this point, there's more for him to tap into. I wasn't a huge fan of the pick when the Yankees made it, having ranked him 44th on my draft rankings, but if the Yankees can develop his bat while maintaining his defense, they could have a starting catcher on their hands. 21 year old Josh Breaux was the second round pick (61st overall) right after Seigler, coming from a Texas JuCo. He's also a catcher, and while there is significant risk that he ends up at first base rather than behind the plate, he has more power than Seigler but has more swing and miss, fitting the description of a high ceiling/low floor prospect. The power is real but I'm definitely concerned about his ability to get to it consistently, especially if he has to move off of catcher and his bat has to carry him. After taking Breaux, the Yankees took 18 year old Ryder Green out of a Knoxville high school in the third round (97th overall), and he slashed .203/.316/.392 with three home runs and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games in complex ball. A power hitting outfielder, I actually ranked him four spots ahead of Breaux in my draft rankings (83 vs 87). He has power but I'm worried that his swing isn't geared towards making contact in pro ball, so he'll have to alter it just a little to get his barrel in the zone for longer. If he can successfully make those mechanical changes, he could end up a solid power hitter. Lastly, 17 year old Everson Pereira is an extremely advanced player for his age, having slashed .263/.322/.389 with three home runs and a 60/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games at Pulaski. He plays a great center field and makes ready contact against older competition, and once he starts to develop some power and draw some walks, he should move through the minors relatively quickly for a player signed so young.
Friday, December 14, 2018
Reviewing the Kansas City Royals Farm System
Consecutive runs to the 2014 and 2015 World Series, including the big win the second time around, left the farm system completely barren, which is absolutely a tradeoff worth making. In fact, they have actually gotten the farm system back into respectable shape surprisingly quickly, and while at this point I would hesitate to call it anything better than that, "respectable," they deserve credit. The groups of pitchers and hitters are pretty different, with most hitters looking like the toolsy high ceiling/low floor types and most of the pitchers looking like safe bet, low ceiling types. After missing badly on four straight top ten picks in Christian Colon (4th overall, 2010), Bubba Starling (5th overall, 2011), Kyle Zimmer (5th overall, 2012), and Hunter Dozier (8th overall, 2013), in addition to Ashe Russell (21st overall in 2015), the Royals have righted the ship over the last two seasons with eight of their top ten prospects (per MLB.com) having been drafted in the top four rounds of the last two drafts.
Affiliates: AAA Omaha Storm Chasers, AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, High A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Class A Lexington Legends, Rookie level Idaho Falls Chukars, Rookie level Burlington Royals, complex level AZL/DSL Royals
Pitchers from the 2018 Draft: RHP Brady Singer, RHP Jackson Kowar, LHP Daniel Lynch, LHP Kris Bubic, RHP Jonathan Bowlan, and LHP Austin Cox
The Royals farm system took a step forward when they added a few impact bats in the 2017 draft, but the farm system really took a huge step forward with the 2018 draft as they loaded up on college arms and all have either held their stock or moved forwards. We'll start with 22 year old first round pick (18th overall) Brady Singer, a 6'5" right hander who is the prototypical high upside college pitching prospect. He had a chance to go first overall but slid during a moderately inconsistent junior season at Florida, though he still finished with a 2.55 ERA and a 114/22 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly against tough SEC lineups. He throws a running low to mid 90's fastball with a great slider, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's pretty good and will allow him time to develop his changeup, which is coming along rapidly. Though his mechanics can get out of sync at times, he has a loose arm and is said to be a hard worker and an even tougher competitor, both of which bode well for his development into a potential #1 or #2 starter. He did not pitch in pro baseball this year, but should move quickly upon making his minor league debut in 2019. Right behind Singer in the draft was fellow Florida Gator and 22 year old Jackson Kowar, who the Royals took in the compensation round with the 33rd overall pick. They dropped him straight into Class A Lexington, where he dominated with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.1 innings, including the postseason. Like Singer, he's a 6'5" righty with a moving low to mid 90's fastball, but instead of having Singer's sharp slider, his go-to secondary pitch is his dropping changeup. His curveball is behind the other two pitches and will need to add power, and his command is a hair behind Singer's, but he looks like a good bet to move quickly and end up a #3 starter. With the very next pick, the Royals took UVA 22 year old Daniel Lynch 34th overall, and he's off to the best start of any of their draftees. The 6'6" lefty dominated in his pro debut, posting a 1.37 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 68/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings (playoffs included) between rookie level Burlington and Class A Lexington. He has no one standout pitch but mixes his deep arsenal well, and he really took off when he ignored the advice of the UVA pitching program and started throwing his fastball more, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with more velocity possible. I like Lynch as a prospect a lot and while he was the least well known of the first four arms the Royals took this year, he at least has a chance at being the best. Six picks later, with their competitive balance selection, the Royals took now-21 year old Kris Bubic 40th overall out of Stanford, and he got off to a moderately hot start at rookie level Idaho Falls. In 38 innings, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 53/19 strikeout to walk ratio, not throwing as many strikes as hoped but also racking up more strikeouts than expected. He's a 6'3" lefty known mostly for his excellent changeup, but with marginal low 90's velocity and only a decent curveball, he will have to rely on staying consistent with that command. I liked him less than some other sources before the draft, and it's the one pick the Royals made that I'm not too high on. He has the chance to be a #3 or #4 starter but more likely ends up in the bullpen, in my opinion. 22 year old Jonathan Bowlan, the Royals' second round pick (58th overall) out of Memphis, joined Bubic at Idaho Falls and posted a 6.94 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 23/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 innings. While he was hit hard, it was nice to see the huge 6'6" right hander throwing strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball and good slider, and the poor numbers may have just been a result of Royals pitching coaches easing him into pro ball by just having him throw strikes. He also has reliever risk but the Royals will try to refine his secondary pitches enough to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Cox was their fifth round pick out of Mercer, had a nice start at Burlington by posting a 3.78 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings. The 6'4" lefty is still fairly inconsistent with his stuff, but at his best he misses a ton of bats with a low 90's fastball and a hard curveball to go along with a slider and a changeup. The big thing for the Royals will be tightening that stuff and helping him use it more effectively.
Other Pitchers: RHP Josh Staumont, LHP Richard Lovelady, RHP Trevor Oaks, LHP Daniel Tillo, RHP Carlos Hernandez, and RHP Yefri Del Rosario
Most of the top pitching prospects in this system, especially with 18 year old Elvis Luciano being plucked out in the recent Rule 5 Draft, came from that 2018 draft but there are still a few interesting arms that were here beforehand. We'll start with 24 year old Josh Staumont, a flamethrowing 6'3" righty that posted a 3.51 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings at AAA Omaha this year. He can hit 102 with that fastball and add movement with his two seamer in the upper 90's, and his curveball has stepped forward to the point where it is a swing and miss pitch in its own right. However, he can't throw strikes to save his life, and major leaguers can lay off 102 if it's not in the zone or hit it if they're ahead in the count and sitting on it. If he wants to stick as a major league reliever, throwing strikes will be important, but he has high upside if he does. 23 year old Richard Lovelady is a more conventional reliever, coming in with good control of a mid 90's fastball and a good slider. At Omaha in 2018, he posted a 2.47 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings, often going multiple innings at a time. He is a safer bet than Staumont with a lower ceiling, and he's a lefty too. 25 year old Trevor Oaks came over from the Dodgers in a three-way trade last winter, then posted a solid 2018 at Omaha with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 70/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings. He throws in the low to mid 90's but his secondary stuff is just average, leading to low strikeout rates, though he's fairly good at throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground. He has a #5 starter projection with the chance to make the Opening Day roster in 2019. 22 year old Daniel Tillo is lower down in the system, having been drafted in the third round (90th overall) in 2017, The 6'5" lefty was just decent in 2018, posting a 4.76 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 100/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings between Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington. His fastball/slider combination has worked so far for him as a starter in A ball, but with just an average changeup and command, he probably ends up in the bullpen where he could have a similar profile to Lovelady, with the added caveat that he is five inches taller. 21 year old Carlos Hernandez and 19 year old Yefri Del Rosario did everything asked of them in their full season debuts in 2018, both holding down rotation spots with consistency for much of the season. Hernandez posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 82/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, while Del Rosario, a former Braves prospect who was forcibly released due to sleazy contract details on the Braves' end, posted a 3.19 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 72/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings. Both are tall righties that throw reasonably hard, with Hernandez showing the better changeup and Del Rosario having the better slider. Of course, Del Rosario is two years younger, though Hernandez signed late and is progressing quicker than expected.
Lexington Hitters: 1B Nick Pratto, C M.J. Melendez, OF Seuly Matias, OF Brewer Hicklen, OF Michael Gigliotti, OF Kyle Isbel, and SS Jeison Guzman
For a farm system that didn't have a ton of impact talent prior to the 2018 draft, a lot of exciting hitters passed through Class A Lexington this year, many of whom came from a hitting-oriented 2017 draft. The best prospect in that group is 20 year old Nick Pratto, a first baseman who slashed .280/.343/.443 with 14 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 150/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games with Lexington. Having played the whole season at just 19 years old, he showed an advanced approach and good power, even if his strikeout rate was a bit high. He also surprisingly stole 22 bases in 27 tries, even with mediocre speed, as he has good instincts for the game all around. While the overall numbers weren't all that exciting for a first baseman, the 2017 first rounder (14th overall) has skills that will translate upwards and he should have no problem handling High A in 2019. 20 year old M.J. Melendez was right there with Pratto in that Lexington lineup all season long, slashing .251/.322/.492 with 19 home runs and a 143/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 111 games. While he has just as much power as Pratto, the 2017 second rounder (52nd overall) isn't as advanced at the plate. That is okay, because he is a good defensive catcher that should be able to stick back there, meaning as long as he keeps hitting for power and getting on base at a reasonable rate, his glove will get him to the majors as at least a back-up catcher. If he can improve his plate discipline, he could be a starting MLB catcher down the road. 20 year old Seuly Matias was yet another exciting hitter in the Lexington lineup, slashing .231/.303/.550 with 31 home runs and a 131/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games. His bat is even less developed than that of Melendez, but he has the best raw power in the system. He really needs to improve that plate discipline, as higher level pitching will eat him up, but if he can cut down on that strikeout rate he has the highest ceiling among this trio of hitters, at least with his bat. 22 year old Brewer Hicklen, a seventh rounder from that same 2017 draft that produced Pratto and Melendez, struggled at High A Wilmington (.211/.263/.310) before being demoted to Lexington, where he was much better (.307/.378/.552). Overall, he slashed .289/.357/.507 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 124/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, showing both power and speed, but the plate discipline needs a lot of work for someone who was drafted out of college and is older compared to the Class A competition (Pratto and Melendez were drafted out of high school). Because his production came against younger competition, Hicklen is most likely a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but his power and speed could help him contend for a starting spot down the road. Yet another name from that 2017 draft class is 22 year old Michael Gigliotti, a fourth rounder who only made it into six games (and slashed .235/.435/.471) due to an ACL tear. After a down junior season at Lipscomb University in Nashville, he has shown surprisingly advanced plate discipline in the minors, drawing a ton of walks while still spraying line drives all over the field and running the bases well. Once healthy in 2019, he could move quickly and he has a better chance at starting than Hicklen. 21 year old Kyle Isbel was a 2018 third rounder (94th overall), the Royals' first non-college pitcher pick after taking five before him, got to Lexington quickly. Over 64 games between rookie level Idaho Falls and Lexington, he slashed .326/.389/.504 with seven home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 60/26 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a power hitting corner outfielder who I think could be an impact bat in Kansas City relatively soon, though he'll have to watch his strikeouts. Lastly, 20 year old Jeison Guzman split the season between rookie level Burlington and Lexington, slashing .254/.327/.356 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games. His bat is a bit light but he's a good fielding shortstop, which buys the bat time, and he does have a fairly advanced approach for his age. He looks like a utility infielder for now.
Higher Level Hitters: OF Khalil Lee, SS Nicky Lopez, 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B Emmanuel Rivera, and OF Blake Perkins
Most of the system's most hitting exciting talent was in Lexington this year, with the majority of the non-Lexington group looking mostly like future role players. The exception is 20 year old Khalil Lee, an outfielder who was drafted in the third round (103rd overall) out of a northern Virginia high school in 2016. In 100 games between High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas, Lee slashed .263/.382/.390 with six home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, showing advanced plate discipline for his age and the levels he was playing at. Skinny and just 5'10", his power is sporadic but there is definitely some thunder in the bat when he gets into one. He's fast, too, and his broad set of tools gives him the highest high ceiling among position players in the system if he can tap into that power a bit more, considering he has improved his plate discipline as he has been promoted. He doesn't turn 21 until June, giving him plenty of time to continue to develop. 23 year old Nicky Lopez is a smooth fielding shortstop who broke out with the bat in 2018, slashing .308/.382/.417 with nine home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha. His exceptional control of the strike zone means he will have no trouble hitting at the major league level, with the question being just how much. Right now, he looks like more of a utility infielder than a future regular, but with the Royals' infield situation in a bit of a transition, he has a chance to break through and start. There's not much power, so if he does start at points in 2019 and 2020, I think his long term role is indeed as a utility infielder. 24 year old Kelvin Gutierrez and 22 year old Emmanuel Rivera come with similar profiles, both being third basemen in similar stages of development. Gutierrez, who came over from Washington in the Kelvin Herrera trade, slashed .275/.329/.400 with 11 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 108/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA, while Rivera slashed .274/.326/.416 with six home runs and a 65/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 games, mostly at High A Wilmington. Both are average hitters across the board, though Rivera has a better feel for the strike zone for his age. Meanwhile, both are great defenders at third base, with Gutierrez generally being considered the better of the two there, and the Royals will hope one of them takes a step forward with the bat so they can compete for a third base job. Lastly, 22 year old Blake Perkins came over with Gutierrez in the Herrera trade, showing well in some areas and lacking in others. At High A in 2018, he slashed .237/.362/.305 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 134/92 strikeout to walk ratio, showing exceptional patience at the plate to go along with great speed but completely lacking in power. There is hope that he can add some power and hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors, but he isn't there yet and the clock is ticking. With no additional power development, he's a fifth outfielder that can draw a walk, steal a base, and hold down center field if asked.
Affiliates: AAA Omaha Storm Chasers, AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, High A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Class A Lexington Legends, Rookie level Idaho Falls Chukars, Rookie level Burlington Royals, complex level AZL/DSL Royals
Pitchers from the 2018 Draft: RHP Brady Singer, RHP Jackson Kowar, LHP Daniel Lynch, LHP Kris Bubic, RHP Jonathan Bowlan, and LHP Austin Cox
The Royals farm system took a step forward when they added a few impact bats in the 2017 draft, but the farm system really took a huge step forward with the 2018 draft as they loaded up on college arms and all have either held their stock or moved forwards. We'll start with 22 year old first round pick (18th overall) Brady Singer, a 6'5" right hander who is the prototypical high upside college pitching prospect. He had a chance to go first overall but slid during a moderately inconsistent junior season at Florida, though he still finished with a 2.55 ERA and a 114/22 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly against tough SEC lineups. He throws a running low to mid 90's fastball with a great slider, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's pretty good and will allow him time to develop his changeup, which is coming along rapidly. Though his mechanics can get out of sync at times, he has a loose arm and is said to be a hard worker and an even tougher competitor, both of which bode well for his development into a potential #1 or #2 starter. He did not pitch in pro baseball this year, but should move quickly upon making his minor league debut in 2019. Right behind Singer in the draft was fellow Florida Gator and 22 year old Jackson Kowar, who the Royals took in the compensation round with the 33rd overall pick. They dropped him straight into Class A Lexington, where he dominated with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.1 innings, including the postseason. Like Singer, he's a 6'5" righty with a moving low to mid 90's fastball, but instead of having Singer's sharp slider, his go-to secondary pitch is his dropping changeup. His curveball is behind the other two pitches and will need to add power, and his command is a hair behind Singer's, but he looks like a good bet to move quickly and end up a #3 starter. With the very next pick, the Royals took UVA 22 year old Daniel Lynch 34th overall, and he's off to the best start of any of their draftees. The 6'6" lefty dominated in his pro debut, posting a 1.37 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 68/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings (playoffs included) between rookie level Burlington and Class A Lexington. He has no one standout pitch but mixes his deep arsenal well, and he really took off when he ignored the advice of the UVA pitching program and started throwing his fastball more, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with more velocity possible. I like Lynch as a prospect a lot and while he was the least well known of the first four arms the Royals took this year, he at least has a chance at being the best. Six picks later, with their competitive balance selection, the Royals took now-21 year old Kris Bubic 40th overall out of Stanford, and he got off to a moderately hot start at rookie level Idaho Falls. In 38 innings, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 53/19 strikeout to walk ratio, not throwing as many strikes as hoped but also racking up more strikeouts than expected. He's a 6'3" lefty known mostly for his excellent changeup, but with marginal low 90's velocity and only a decent curveball, he will have to rely on staying consistent with that command. I liked him less than some other sources before the draft, and it's the one pick the Royals made that I'm not too high on. He has the chance to be a #3 or #4 starter but more likely ends up in the bullpen, in my opinion. 22 year old Jonathan Bowlan, the Royals' second round pick (58th overall) out of Memphis, joined Bubic at Idaho Falls and posted a 6.94 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 23/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 innings. While he was hit hard, it was nice to see the huge 6'6" right hander throwing strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball and good slider, and the poor numbers may have just been a result of Royals pitching coaches easing him into pro ball by just having him throw strikes. He also has reliever risk but the Royals will try to refine his secondary pitches enough to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Cox was their fifth round pick out of Mercer, had a nice start at Burlington by posting a 3.78 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings. The 6'4" lefty is still fairly inconsistent with his stuff, but at his best he misses a ton of bats with a low 90's fastball and a hard curveball to go along with a slider and a changeup. The big thing for the Royals will be tightening that stuff and helping him use it more effectively.
Other Pitchers: RHP Josh Staumont, LHP Richard Lovelady, RHP Trevor Oaks, LHP Daniel Tillo, RHP Carlos Hernandez, and RHP Yefri Del Rosario
Most of the top pitching prospects in this system, especially with 18 year old Elvis Luciano being plucked out in the recent Rule 5 Draft, came from that 2018 draft but there are still a few interesting arms that were here beforehand. We'll start with 24 year old Josh Staumont, a flamethrowing 6'3" righty that posted a 3.51 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings at AAA Omaha this year. He can hit 102 with that fastball and add movement with his two seamer in the upper 90's, and his curveball has stepped forward to the point where it is a swing and miss pitch in its own right. However, he can't throw strikes to save his life, and major leaguers can lay off 102 if it's not in the zone or hit it if they're ahead in the count and sitting on it. If he wants to stick as a major league reliever, throwing strikes will be important, but he has high upside if he does. 23 year old Richard Lovelady is a more conventional reliever, coming in with good control of a mid 90's fastball and a good slider. At Omaha in 2018, he posted a 2.47 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings, often going multiple innings at a time. He is a safer bet than Staumont with a lower ceiling, and he's a lefty too. 25 year old Trevor Oaks came over from the Dodgers in a three-way trade last winter, then posted a solid 2018 at Omaha with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 70/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings. He throws in the low to mid 90's but his secondary stuff is just average, leading to low strikeout rates, though he's fairly good at throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground. He has a #5 starter projection with the chance to make the Opening Day roster in 2019. 22 year old Daniel Tillo is lower down in the system, having been drafted in the third round (90th overall) in 2017, The 6'5" lefty was just decent in 2018, posting a 4.76 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 100/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings between Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington. His fastball/slider combination has worked so far for him as a starter in A ball, but with just an average changeup and command, he probably ends up in the bullpen where he could have a similar profile to Lovelady, with the added caveat that he is five inches taller. 21 year old Carlos Hernandez and 19 year old Yefri Del Rosario did everything asked of them in their full season debuts in 2018, both holding down rotation spots with consistency for much of the season. Hernandez posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 82/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, while Del Rosario, a former Braves prospect who was forcibly released due to sleazy contract details on the Braves' end, posted a 3.19 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 72/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings. Both are tall righties that throw reasonably hard, with Hernandez showing the better changeup and Del Rosario having the better slider. Of course, Del Rosario is two years younger, though Hernandez signed late and is progressing quicker than expected.
Lexington Hitters: 1B Nick Pratto, C M.J. Melendez, OF Seuly Matias, OF Brewer Hicklen, OF Michael Gigliotti, OF Kyle Isbel, and SS Jeison Guzman
For a farm system that didn't have a ton of impact talent prior to the 2018 draft, a lot of exciting hitters passed through Class A Lexington this year, many of whom came from a hitting-oriented 2017 draft. The best prospect in that group is 20 year old Nick Pratto, a first baseman who slashed .280/.343/.443 with 14 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 150/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games with Lexington. Having played the whole season at just 19 years old, he showed an advanced approach and good power, even if his strikeout rate was a bit high. He also surprisingly stole 22 bases in 27 tries, even with mediocre speed, as he has good instincts for the game all around. While the overall numbers weren't all that exciting for a first baseman, the 2017 first rounder (14th overall) has skills that will translate upwards and he should have no problem handling High A in 2019. 20 year old M.J. Melendez was right there with Pratto in that Lexington lineup all season long, slashing .251/.322/.492 with 19 home runs and a 143/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 111 games. While he has just as much power as Pratto, the 2017 second rounder (52nd overall) isn't as advanced at the plate. That is okay, because he is a good defensive catcher that should be able to stick back there, meaning as long as he keeps hitting for power and getting on base at a reasonable rate, his glove will get him to the majors as at least a back-up catcher. If he can improve his plate discipline, he could be a starting MLB catcher down the road. 20 year old Seuly Matias was yet another exciting hitter in the Lexington lineup, slashing .231/.303/.550 with 31 home runs and a 131/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games. His bat is even less developed than that of Melendez, but he has the best raw power in the system. He really needs to improve that plate discipline, as higher level pitching will eat him up, but if he can cut down on that strikeout rate he has the highest ceiling among this trio of hitters, at least with his bat. 22 year old Brewer Hicklen, a seventh rounder from that same 2017 draft that produced Pratto and Melendez, struggled at High A Wilmington (.211/.263/.310) before being demoted to Lexington, where he was much better (.307/.378/.552). Overall, he slashed .289/.357/.507 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 124/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, showing both power and speed, but the plate discipline needs a lot of work for someone who was drafted out of college and is older compared to the Class A competition (Pratto and Melendez were drafted out of high school). Because his production came against younger competition, Hicklen is most likely a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but his power and speed could help him contend for a starting spot down the road. Yet another name from that 2017 draft class is 22 year old Michael Gigliotti, a fourth rounder who only made it into six games (and slashed .235/.435/.471) due to an ACL tear. After a down junior season at Lipscomb University in Nashville, he has shown surprisingly advanced plate discipline in the minors, drawing a ton of walks while still spraying line drives all over the field and running the bases well. Once healthy in 2019, he could move quickly and he has a better chance at starting than Hicklen. 21 year old Kyle Isbel was a 2018 third rounder (94th overall), the Royals' first non-college pitcher pick after taking five before him, got to Lexington quickly. Over 64 games between rookie level Idaho Falls and Lexington, he slashed .326/.389/.504 with seven home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 60/26 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a power hitting corner outfielder who I think could be an impact bat in Kansas City relatively soon, though he'll have to watch his strikeouts. Lastly, 20 year old Jeison Guzman split the season between rookie level Burlington and Lexington, slashing .254/.327/.356 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games. His bat is a bit light but he's a good fielding shortstop, which buys the bat time, and he does have a fairly advanced approach for his age. He looks like a utility infielder for now.
Higher Level Hitters: OF Khalil Lee, SS Nicky Lopez, 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B Emmanuel Rivera, and OF Blake Perkins
Most of the system's most hitting exciting talent was in Lexington this year, with the majority of the non-Lexington group looking mostly like future role players. The exception is 20 year old Khalil Lee, an outfielder who was drafted in the third round (103rd overall) out of a northern Virginia high school in 2016. In 100 games between High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas, Lee slashed .263/.382/.390 with six home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, showing advanced plate discipline for his age and the levels he was playing at. Skinny and just 5'10", his power is sporadic but there is definitely some thunder in the bat when he gets into one. He's fast, too, and his broad set of tools gives him the highest high ceiling among position players in the system if he can tap into that power a bit more, considering he has improved his plate discipline as he has been promoted. He doesn't turn 21 until June, giving him plenty of time to continue to develop. 23 year old Nicky Lopez is a smooth fielding shortstop who broke out with the bat in 2018, slashing .308/.382/.417 with nine home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha. His exceptional control of the strike zone means he will have no trouble hitting at the major league level, with the question being just how much. Right now, he looks like more of a utility infielder than a future regular, but with the Royals' infield situation in a bit of a transition, he has a chance to break through and start. There's not much power, so if he does start at points in 2019 and 2020, I think his long term role is indeed as a utility infielder. 24 year old Kelvin Gutierrez and 22 year old Emmanuel Rivera come with similar profiles, both being third basemen in similar stages of development. Gutierrez, who came over from Washington in the Kelvin Herrera trade, slashed .275/.329/.400 with 11 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 108/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA, while Rivera slashed .274/.326/.416 with six home runs and a 65/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 games, mostly at High A Wilmington. Both are average hitters across the board, though Rivera has a better feel for the strike zone for his age. Meanwhile, both are great defenders at third base, with Gutierrez generally being considered the better of the two there, and the Royals will hope one of them takes a step forward with the bat so they can compete for a third base job. Lastly, 22 year old Blake Perkins came over with Gutierrez in the Herrera trade, showing well in some areas and lacking in others. At High A in 2018, he slashed .237/.362/.305 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 134/92 strikeout to walk ratio, showing exceptional patience at the plate to go along with great speed but completely lacking in power. There is hope that he can add some power and hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors, but he isn't there yet and the clock is ticking. With no additional power development, he's a fifth outfielder that can draw a walk, steal a base, and hold down center field if asked.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Reviewing the Texas Rangers Farm System
The Rangers have a lot of interesting, high-upside guys, but nobody really stands out at this point. They have always been known to collect high-risk, high-reward players who could turn into stars or busts with little in between, but recently they have only had marginal success getting results out of that philosophy, with relatively recent call-ups Joey Gallo (2015), Keone Kela (2015), Nomar Mazara (2016), Ronald Guzman (2018), and Isaiah Kiner-Falefa (2018) looking like the most successful in that group. While Gallo and Kela are borderline "impact" players and Mazara has been a nice bat, but ultimately the influx of prospects has not been enough to keep the Rangers afloat in the AL West. While guys like Leody Taveras, Ariel Jurado, and Yohander Mendez are looking less and less like the future impact players the Rangers envisioned, they do have another wave of prospects coming and they're hoping some of them will stick. At this point, they are fairly deep in pitching and just by the law of averages, a few of them should turn out to be useful, but they are fairly shallow in terms of position players.
Affiliates: AAA Round Rock Express*, AA Frisco RoughRiders, High A Down East Wood Ducks, Class A Hickory Crawdads, Short Season Spokane Indians, complex level AZL and DSL Rangers
*AAA affiliate will move from Round Rock, TX to Nashville, TN in 2019
Young Arms: RHP Hans Crouse, RHP Tyler Phillips, RHP A.J. Alexy, LHP Cole Ragans, RHP Alex Speas, RHP Yerry Rodriguez, RHP Cole Winn, and RHP Owen White
I'm doing this Rangers list a little bit out of order because one of their most exciting groups of players is their set of young pitchers. Of the group, 20 year old Hans Crouse may be the most exciting. The Rangers have brought the 2017 second rounder (66th overall) along slowly, and in 13 starts between Short Season Spokane and Class A Hickory he posted a 2.47 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 62/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.2 innings. The 6'4" righty throws mid 90's with an improving slider that is now well above average, with the changeup and command still works in progress. With his high effort delivery, and two great pitches, he looks like a typical relief prospect, but he is athletic and durable so the Rangers hope to make him a starter, where he could be a #2 or #3 guy. 21 year old Tyler Phillips, a 6'5" right hander out of the Philadelphia area, had a breakout season with Hickory this year (plus one start with High A Down East), going 12-5 with a 2.64 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 127/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings. Despite his impressive height, he only throws in the low 90's and instead relies on excellent command and a knowledge of how to pitch in order to get outs. Class A hitters were not able to figure him out, and his one start with Down East was just as solid. He looks like a back-end starter at this point but he could end up being more of a mid-rotation guy if he keeps mixing and locating his pitches like he does. 20 year old A.J. Alexy, another tall (6'4") righty out of the Philadelphia area, had a solid season at Hickory with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 138/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings, showing more explosive stuff than Phillips but not commanding it as well, giving him more bust potential but a higher ceiling if he puts it all together. 21 year old Cole Ragans is yet another tall pitcher, standing 6'4" and throwing left handed. His stuff is as explosive or even better than Crouse's, having taken a step forward since high school, but his command hasn't developed as hoped (yet) and he missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery. When he comes back, he has a chance to make himself the top pitching prospect in the system if he pitches like he is capable of in A ball, showing true front of the rotation potential on the right days. It all depends how he bounces back from surgery. 20 year old Alex Speas is a 6'4" righty (the Rangers like them tall, don't they) who is strictly a relief prospect at this point, but he could be a really good one if he gets his command together. In 2018, he posted a 2.20 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 49/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 28.2 innings at Hickory, showing what could be the best fastball in the system that runs up to the upper 90's with movement. The hard curveball is great too, but even a few years into his pro career, it is still evident that he has no idea where his pitches are going with 53 walks in 70.2 innings so far. If he can tighten the command just a little bit, he could be an impact reliever at the major league level. 21 year old Yerry Rodriguez had a huge breakout season between complex ball and Spokane this year, posting a 2.86 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an 82/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings. He uses his control to make his mostly average stuff play up, and he could be in the same position as Tyler Phillips a year from now. Lastly, 19 year olds Cole Winn and Owen White are yet to pitch in the minor leagues, having been drafted in the first round (15th overall) and second round (55th overall), respectively, out of high school in 2018. Winn is more cut more from the Phillips/Rodriguez cloth than the Crouse/Alexy/Ragans one, showing good command and an innate ability to mix his above average arsenal around. I really liked him on draft day and that hasn't changed, and he could end up having the best career out of any pitcher in the Rangers' system. Meanwhile, White has a deep arsenal of nasty stuff, which he actually commands fairly well, but he has struggled to maintain it through his starts and could use some pro conditioning and development. He has a lot of risk associated with him, but he has ace upside.
Advanced Arms: LHP Yohander Mendez, LHP Taylor Hearn, RHP Jonathan Hernandez, LHP Joe Palumbo, RHP Rollie Lacy, and LHP C.D. Pelham
As with the young pitchers, the advanced pitchers are also defined by high upside and high risk, with few safe bets anywhere. We'll start with 23 year old Yohander Mendez, a 6'5" lefty who has been on prospect lists for years but who has never really broken through. He had short stints with the Rangers in 2016, 2017, and 2018, combining for a 6.28 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a 25/20 strikeout to walk ratio over those 43 major league innings. In the minors this year, he posted a 4.71 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 109/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.1 innings between High A Down East, AA Frisco, and AAA Round Rock, tantalizing with great stuff but still not getting the overall results the Rangers are looking for. He throws a low to mid 90's sinker and a great changeup, but his other secondaries lag behind and he doesn't have the command to make up for that. 2019 will probably be the year that determines whether he ends up a big league starter or just a reliever. 24 year old Taylor Hearn has been traded twice in his career, once from Washington to Pittsburgh in the Mark Melancon trade and then on to Texas in the Keone Kela deal. In 2018, he posted a 3.49 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, a 140/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 innings at AA, handling his first taste of the level successfully. The 6'5" lefty, himself a Dallas-area native, throws upper 90's with his long arms and spins a good changeup as well. His command is holding up, though he does need to improve his slider just a bit in order to be a major league starter. He has a good shot to crack the rotation at some point this year, but he could be hit hard and end up in the bullpen if he can't get that slider by hitters. 22 year old Jonathan Hernandez dominated in his second season at Down East (2.20 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 77/17 K/BB in 57.1 IP) before regressing a bit upon his promotion to Frisco (4.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 57/36 K/BB in 64 IP). His mid 90's fastball generates a ton of ground balls, and his slider and changeup are coming along to where he has a good shot at starting in the majors. The 6'2" righty won't be an ace, but could end up a #3 or #4 starter if his command holds up, having held his own at AA this year. 24 year old Joe Palumbo missed almost all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery and was limited to just eleven starts this year, but he was strong with a 2.78 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 59/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.1 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard but he gets outs by using deception and mixing his pitches, most notably his big curveball. He'll need to stay healthy, but his command is improving and he could be a back-end starter if everything holds up. 23 year old Rollie Lacy came over in the Cole Hamels trade, putting up a good season with a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings between Class A and High A. He was better in Class A than in High A, and with decent command of marginal stuff, he'll have to continue to develop as a pitcher if he wants to crack the rotation down the road. Lastly, 23 year old C.D. Pelham is a relief prospect who put up a 3.66 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 53/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings between Down East and Frisco, then put up a 7.04 ERA and a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 7.2 major league innings. The big lefty stands 6'6" and weighs 235 pounds, coming in with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a biting, hard cutter. His command isn't great, but if he can hone that command just a little bit, he could be an impact reliever in 2019.
Outfield Prospects: Leody Taveras, Bubba Thompson, Pedro Gonzalez, and Julio Pablo Martinez
The Rangers don't have as much depth here as they do on the mound, with just four outfielders looking like they could even possibly be impact players at the major league level, not including likely backup Scott Heineman after his big year at AA/AAA (12 HR, .306/.371/.445). We'll start with 20 year old Leody Taveras, a high-upside guy who has failed to put it all together at this point. Last year, as a 19 year old at High A Down East, he slashed .246/.312/.332 with five home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 96/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games. He's very fast and has a very advanced approach at the plate for his age, but so far he hasn't been able to put it together in games and he posted a third straight season of uninspiring numbers. He'll play all of 2019 at 20 years old and will likely do so at AA Frisco, giving him plenty of time to develop, but he is becoming more of an intriguing upside guy than an elite prospect. 20 year old Bubba Thompson was a first round pick (26th overall) out of high school in Mobile, Alabama in 2017, and he posted some pretty good numbers at Class A Hickory in 2018: 8 HR, .289/.344/.446 line, 32 SB, 104/23 K/BB. He's an exceptional athlete who had the opportunity to play quarterback in the SEC, and it translates to good defense, lots of stolen bases, and some budding power at the plate. He still needs to work on his plate discipline as his aggressive approach might hold him back at the higher levels, and his power still isn't fully developed, but he's just 20 years old and has time to work on that. Despite some of those shortcomings, he has a chance to be an impact player in Texas. 21 year old Pedro Gonzalez came over in the Jonathan Lucroy trade, then had a disappointing 2018 at Hickory by slashing .234/.296/.421 with 12 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 110/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games. At 6'5", it's easy to dream on his power, but his aggressive approach has held him back and he doesn't have Thompson's athleticism to make up for it. He could still pull it together and be the power hitting right fielder the Rangers want him to be, but it's far from a given. Lastly, 22 year old Julio Pablo Martinez just came over from Cuba after signing for $2.8 million, and he's already showing well. In his American pro debut in 2018, he slashed .266/.378/.457 with nine home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 76/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between complex ball and Short Season Spokane, showing all around skills that can be developed. Just 5'9", there is some pop in his bat, and he uses his speed well to get extra bases. His patient approach will help him get on base in order to steal bases, but he does need to cut his strikeouts down as he gets used to American pitching. Starting in 2019, he has a chance to move fairly quickly.
Infielders: SS Anderson Tejeda, 3B Sherten Apostel, 3B Jonathan Ornelas, SS Chris Seise, and C Sam Huff
The Rangers might be even shallower in the infield than in the outfield, with no true impact prospects at all and very few who look to even have a chance of providing any value. 20 year old Anderson Tejeda looks like the best of the small group at this point, coming off a 2018 power breakout in which he slashed .259/.331/.439 with 19 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 142/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Down East. Even at 5'11", he has some sock in the bat and won't be just a slap hitter, but his swing and miss tendencies are a bit troubling at this point. The fact that he plays pretty good infield defense and has a shot to stick at shortstop takes some pressure off his bat and gives him a chance to cut down on those strikeouts, as does the fact that he won't turn 21 until May. Consider his ceiling to be somewhat like that of Rougned Odor. 19 year old Sherten Apostel came over from Pittsburgh towards the end of the season in the Keone Kela trade, and he hit well in Short Season/rookie ball by slashing .278/.420/.460 with eight home runs and a 50/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. He shows advanced power and plate discipline at this point, and at 6'4", it's easy to see that power translating upwards as he progresses through the minors. He's less known than some other Rangers hitting prospects, but he has a chance to make himself known in full season ball next season. Apostel is a name I would keep an eye on. 18 year old Jonathan Ornelas was just drafted in the third round (91st overall) out of a Phoenix area high school and got off to a hot start in complex ball, slashing .302/.389/.459 with three home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. His big swing gives him more power than you'd expect from his slight frame, though it also leads to some swing and miss issues that may catch up to him at higher levels. He should end up a solid fielding third baseman, which will take some pressure off his bat, and those solid debut numbers in the Arizona League are promising. We'll see what he does in 2019. 19 year old Chris Seise was a first rounder (29th overall) in 2017 out of an Orlando area high school, but he missed all of 2018 with shoulder surgery. He's a great fielder that has the best chance in this group to stick at shortstop, and he does have a pretty decent bat that can produce plenty of singles and doubles. Of course, we'll have to see how it plays in pro ball, as he was great in complex ball in 2017 (.336/.395/.509) but struggled with a promotion to Short Season Spokane (.222/.250/.273). Lastly, 20 year old Sam Huff is a catcher for now and slashed .241/.292/.439 with 18 home runs and a 140/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A Hickory. He has some power, but if his defense doesn't hold up behind the plate and he has to move to first base, he doesn't get on base enough for the bat to play there. If he can stick behind the plate, he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts but he otherwise has a shot at being a big league catcher.
Affiliates: AAA Round Rock Express*, AA Frisco RoughRiders, High A Down East Wood Ducks, Class A Hickory Crawdads, Short Season Spokane Indians, complex level AZL and DSL Rangers
*AAA affiliate will move from Round Rock, TX to Nashville, TN in 2019
Young Arms: RHP Hans Crouse, RHP Tyler Phillips, RHP A.J. Alexy, LHP Cole Ragans, RHP Alex Speas, RHP Yerry Rodriguez, RHP Cole Winn, and RHP Owen White
I'm doing this Rangers list a little bit out of order because one of their most exciting groups of players is their set of young pitchers. Of the group, 20 year old Hans Crouse may be the most exciting. The Rangers have brought the 2017 second rounder (66th overall) along slowly, and in 13 starts between Short Season Spokane and Class A Hickory he posted a 2.47 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 62/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.2 innings. The 6'4" righty throws mid 90's with an improving slider that is now well above average, with the changeup and command still works in progress. With his high effort delivery, and two great pitches, he looks like a typical relief prospect, but he is athletic and durable so the Rangers hope to make him a starter, where he could be a #2 or #3 guy. 21 year old Tyler Phillips, a 6'5" right hander out of the Philadelphia area, had a breakout season with Hickory this year (plus one start with High A Down East), going 12-5 with a 2.64 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 127/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 innings. Despite his impressive height, he only throws in the low 90's and instead relies on excellent command and a knowledge of how to pitch in order to get outs. Class A hitters were not able to figure him out, and his one start with Down East was just as solid. He looks like a back-end starter at this point but he could end up being more of a mid-rotation guy if he keeps mixing and locating his pitches like he does. 20 year old A.J. Alexy, another tall (6'4") righty out of the Philadelphia area, had a solid season at Hickory with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 138/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings, showing more explosive stuff than Phillips but not commanding it as well, giving him more bust potential but a higher ceiling if he puts it all together. 21 year old Cole Ragans is yet another tall pitcher, standing 6'4" and throwing left handed. His stuff is as explosive or even better than Crouse's, having taken a step forward since high school, but his command hasn't developed as hoped (yet) and he missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery. When he comes back, he has a chance to make himself the top pitching prospect in the system if he pitches like he is capable of in A ball, showing true front of the rotation potential on the right days. It all depends how he bounces back from surgery. 20 year old Alex Speas is a 6'4" righty (the Rangers like them tall, don't they) who is strictly a relief prospect at this point, but he could be a really good one if he gets his command together. In 2018, he posted a 2.20 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 49/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 28.2 innings at Hickory, showing what could be the best fastball in the system that runs up to the upper 90's with movement. The hard curveball is great too, but even a few years into his pro career, it is still evident that he has no idea where his pitches are going with 53 walks in 70.2 innings so far. If he can tighten the command just a little bit, he could be an impact reliever at the major league level. 21 year old Yerry Rodriguez had a huge breakout season between complex ball and Spokane this year, posting a 2.86 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an 82/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings. He uses his control to make his mostly average stuff play up, and he could be in the same position as Tyler Phillips a year from now. Lastly, 19 year olds Cole Winn and Owen White are yet to pitch in the minor leagues, having been drafted in the first round (15th overall) and second round (55th overall), respectively, out of high school in 2018. Winn is more cut more from the Phillips/Rodriguez cloth than the Crouse/Alexy/Ragans one, showing good command and an innate ability to mix his above average arsenal around. I really liked him on draft day and that hasn't changed, and he could end up having the best career out of any pitcher in the Rangers' system. Meanwhile, White has a deep arsenal of nasty stuff, which he actually commands fairly well, but he has struggled to maintain it through his starts and could use some pro conditioning and development. He has a lot of risk associated with him, but he has ace upside.
Advanced Arms: LHP Yohander Mendez, LHP Taylor Hearn, RHP Jonathan Hernandez, LHP Joe Palumbo, RHP Rollie Lacy, and LHP C.D. Pelham
As with the young pitchers, the advanced pitchers are also defined by high upside and high risk, with few safe bets anywhere. We'll start with 23 year old Yohander Mendez, a 6'5" lefty who has been on prospect lists for years but who has never really broken through. He had short stints with the Rangers in 2016, 2017, and 2018, combining for a 6.28 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and a 25/20 strikeout to walk ratio over those 43 major league innings. In the minors this year, he posted a 4.71 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 109/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.1 innings between High A Down East, AA Frisco, and AAA Round Rock, tantalizing with great stuff but still not getting the overall results the Rangers are looking for. He throws a low to mid 90's sinker and a great changeup, but his other secondaries lag behind and he doesn't have the command to make up for that. 2019 will probably be the year that determines whether he ends up a big league starter or just a reliever. 24 year old Taylor Hearn has been traded twice in his career, once from Washington to Pittsburgh in the Mark Melancon trade and then on to Texas in the Keone Kela deal. In 2018, he posted a 3.49 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, a 140/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 innings at AA, handling his first taste of the level successfully. The 6'5" lefty, himself a Dallas-area native, throws upper 90's with his long arms and spins a good changeup as well. His command is holding up, though he does need to improve his slider just a bit in order to be a major league starter. He has a good shot to crack the rotation at some point this year, but he could be hit hard and end up in the bullpen if he can't get that slider by hitters. 22 year old Jonathan Hernandez dominated in his second season at Down East (2.20 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 77/17 K/BB in 57.1 IP) before regressing a bit upon his promotion to Frisco (4.92 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 57/36 K/BB in 64 IP). His mid 90's fastball generates a ton of ground balls, and his slider and changeup are coming along to where he has a good shot at starting in the majors. The 6'2" righty won't be an ace, but could end up a #3 or #4 starter if his command holds up, having held his own at AA this year. 24 year old Joe Palumbo missed almost all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery and was limited to just eleven starts this year, but he was strong with a 2.78 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 59/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.1 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard but he gets outs by using deception and mixing his pitches, most notably his big curveball. He'll need to stay healthy, but his command is improving and he could be a back-end starter if everything holds up. 23 year old Rollie Lacy came over in the Cole Hamels trade, putting up a good season with a 2.97 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 121/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 innings between Class A and High A. He was better in Class A than in High A, and with decent command of marginal stuff, he'll have to continue to develop as a pitcher if he wants to crack the rotation down the road. Lastly, 23 year old C.D. Pelham is a relief prospect who put up a 3.66 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 53/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings between Down East and Frisco, then put up a 7.04 ERA and a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 7.2 major league innings. The big lefty stands 6'6" and weighs 235 pounds, coming in with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a biting, hard cutter. His command isn't great, but if he can hone that command just a little bit, he could be an impact reliever in 2019.
Outfield Prospects: Leody Taveras, Bubba Thompson, Pedro Gonzalez, and Julio Pablo Martinez
The Rangers don't have as much depth here as they do on the mound, with just four outfielders looking like they could even possibly be impact players at the major league level, not including likely backup Scott Heineman after his big year at AA/AAA (12 HR, .306/.371/.445). We'll start with 20 year old Leody Taveras, a high-upside guy who has failed to put it all together at this point. Last year, as a 19 year old at High A Down East, he slashed .246/.312/.332 with five home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 96/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games. He's very fast and has a very advanced approach at the plate for his age, but so far he hasn't been able to put it together in games and he posted a third straight season of uninspiring numbers. He'll play all of 2019 at 20 years old and will likely do so at AA Frisco, giving him plenty of time to develop, but he is becoming more of an intriguing upside guy than an elite prospect. 20 year old Bubba Thompson was a first round pick (26th overall) out of high school in Mobile, Alabama in 2017, and he posted some pretty good numbers at Class A Hickory in 2018: 8 HR, .289/.344/.446 line, 32 SB, 104/23 K/BB. He's an exceptional athlete who had the opportunity to play quarterback in the SEC, and it translates to good defense, lots of stolen bases, and some budding power at the plate. He still needs to work on his plate discipline as his aggressive approach might hold him back at the higher levels, and his power still isn't fully developed, but he's just 20 years old and has time to work on that. Despite some of those shortcomings, he has a chance to be an impact player in Texas. 21 year old Pedro Gonzalez came over in the Jonathan Lucroy trade, then had a disappointing 2018 at Hickory by slashing .234/.296/.421 with 12 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 110/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games. At 6'5", it's easy to dream on his power, but his aggressive approach has held him back and he doesn't have Thompson's athleticism to make up for it. He could still pull it together and be the power hitting right fielder the Rangers want him to be, but it's far from a given. Lastly, 22 year old Julio Pablo Martinez just came over from Cuba after signing for $2.8 million, and he's already showing well. In his American pro debut in 2018, he slashed .266/.378/.457 with nine home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 76/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between complex ball and Short Season Spokane, showing all around skills that can be developed. Just 5'9", there is some pop in his bat, and he uses his speed well to get extra bases. His patient approach will help him get on base in order to steal bases, but he does need to cut his strikeouts down as he gets used to American pitching. Starting in 2019, he has a chance to move fairly quickly.
Infielders: SS Anderson Tejeda, 3B Sherten Apostel, 3B Jonathan Ornelas, SS Chris Seise, and C Sam Huff
The Rangers might be even shallower in the infield than in the outfield, with no true impact prospects at all and very few who look to even have a chance of providing any value. 20 year old Anderson Tejeda looks like the best of the small group at this point, coming off a 2018 power breakout in which he slashed .259/.331/.439 with 19 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 142/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Down East. Even at 5'11", he has some sock in the bat and won't be just a slap hitter, but his swing and miss tendencies are a bit troubling at this point. The fact that he plays pretty good infield defense and has a shot to stick at shortstop takes some pressure off his bat and gives him a chance to cut down on those strikeouts, as does the fact that he won't turn 21 until May. Consider his ceiling to be somewhat like that of Rougned Odor. 19 year old Sherten Apostel came over from Pittsburgh towards the end of the season in the Keone Kela trade, and he hit well in Short Season/rookie ball by slashing .278/.420/.460 with eight home runs and a 50/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. He shows advanced power and plate discipline at this point, and at 6'4", it's easy to see that power translating upwards as he progresses through the minors. He's less known than some other Rangers hitting prospects, but he has a chance to make himself known in full season ball next season. Apostel is a name I would keep an eye on. 18 year old Jonathan Ornelas was just drafted in the third round (91st overall) out of a Phoenix area high school and got off to a hot start in complex ball, slashing .302/.389/.459 with three home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 41/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. His big swing gives him more power than you'd expect from his slight frame, though it also leads to some swing and miss issues that may catch up to him at higher levels. He should end up a solid fielding third baseman, which will take some pressure off his bat, and those solid debut numbers in the Arizona League are promising. We'll see what he does in 2019. 19 year old Chris Seise was a first rounder (29th overall) in 2017 out of an Orlando area high school, but he missed all of 2018 with shoulder surgery. He's a great fielder that has the best chance in this group to stick at shortstop, and he does have a pretty decent bat that can produce plenty of singles and doubles. Of course, we'll have to see how it plays in pro ball, as he was great in complex ball in 2017 (.336/.395/.509) but struggled with a promotion to Short Season Spokane (.222/.250/.273). Lastly, 20 year old Sam Huff is a catcher for now and slashed .241/.292/.439 with 18 home runs and a 140/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Class A Hickory. He has some power, but if his defense doesn't hold up behind the plate and he has to move to first base, he doesn't get on base enough for the bat to play there. If he can stick behind the plate, he'll need to cut down on his strikeouts but he otherwise has a shot at being a big league catcher.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)