I was planning on writing up the Mets soon anyways, but after they sent Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn over to the Mariners, they have the thinnest system of the ones remaining to be written up. Without those two big names near the top of the list, the talent in this system is mostly concentrated near the bottom of the minors, especially with quite a few interesting hitters coming through Kingsport in the Appalachian League. There is not much upside in this system, with most players looking more like marginal/role players than potential stars. There are a few pitchers up at the top of the list, but most of the system is led by hitters.
Affiliates: AAA Las Vegas 51's*, AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies, High A St. Lucie Mets, Class A Columbia Fireflies, Short Season Brooklyn Cyclones, rookie level Kingsport Mets, complex level GCL and DSL Mets
*AAA affiliate will move from Las Vegas, NV to Syracuse, NY in 2019
The Headliners: 1B Peter Alonso and SS Andres Gimenez
There are no truly elite prospects in the Mets' system, though 24 year old Peter Alonso and 20 year old Andres Gimenez mark the clear two best prospects with Jarred Kelenic's trade to Seattle. Alonso had a huge year in the upper minors this year, slashing .285/.395/.579 with 36 home runs and a 128/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games about evenly split between AA Binghamton and hitter-friendly AAA Las Vegas. He has a ton of power and draws a ton of walks, with his only question on offense being his ability to make contact. He is limited to first base defensively, but his bat is good enough to profile there and he could be a 30 homer, .350 on-base percentage bat at his best. He's an early candidate for 2019 NL Rookie of the Year, though of course that is contingent on his ability to make contact at the highest level. Gimenez is a very different kind of prospect, showing more contact and defense than power. The slick fielding shortstop slashed .281/.347/.409 with six home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton this year. He's a very advanced hitter for his age, making ready contact and using his speed to make things happen, though he's unlikely to ever develop much power and his offensive value will be largely dependent on his batting average. He could be a leadoff hitter as a best case scenario, but he'll need to start walking more in order to end up more than a bottom of the order hitter, though his defense should help him start so long as he hits like he should.
The Pitchers: LHP David Peterson, RHP Franklyn Kilome, LHP Anthony Kay, LHP Thomas Szapucki, RHP Jordan Humphreys, and RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson
There's really not much pitching depth at all in this system, especially with Justin Dunn gone to Seattle, with a small chance overall of getting a single impact pitcher out of the group of current prospects. Arguably the pitcher with the best shot of separating himself from the pack is 23 year old David Peterson, a 6'6" lefty, had a good first full season in pro ball by posting a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 115/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Class A Columbia and High A St. Lucie. He was better at Columbia (1.82 ERA, 57/11 K/BB) than at St. Lucie (4.33 ERA, 58/19 K/BB), but his combination of stuff and command is unmatched in this system and he has a good shot at becoming a #3 or #4 starter. 23 year old Franklyn Kilome, who came over from Philadelphia in the Asdrubal Cabrera trade, is another 6'6" arm. The righty put up a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 125/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 innings at AA, a moderate step back from his 2018 numbers when the Phillies (and now the Mets) were hoping for a step forward. He throws in the upper 90's but with just a good curveball and a mediocre changeup and command, Kilome is running out of time to prove he can cut it as a starter. If his command doesn't step forward in 2019, he probably ends up a good reliever rather than a #3 starter. 23 year old Anthony Kay, a Long Island native, missed 2017 to Tommy John surgery, but returned in 2018 to make a successful pro debut. In 23 starts between Columbia and St. Lucie, he posted a 4.26 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 123/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings. Kay is smaller than Peterson and Kilome, standing at 6', but he's a lefty that commands his stuff fairly well, though his slider will need to improve if he wants to start in the major leagues. Right now, the relief risk is high, though he does have a shot at being a back-end starter. 22 year olds Thomas Szapucki and Jordan Humphreys, who were born one day apart in June 1996 and who both grew up in Florida, both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery. Both had been dominant statistically before their surgeries, though aside from both being 6'2", that's where the similarities end. Szapucki is a lefty with a power fastball/curveball combination who strikes opponents out in bunches but who also struggles with his command at times, while Humphreys is a righty gets by more on his exceptional feel for pitching. Naturally, Szapucki has a higher ceiling and could be a #2 or #3 starter if he tightens his command, while Humphreys has a better shot at cracking the majors as a back-end starter who gets by on command. Of course, the big thing in 2019 will be for both to stay healthy. Lastly, 18 year old Simeon Woods-Richardson was just drafted in the second round (48th overall) out of a Houston area high school, showing projectability with a solid 6'3" frame and a low 90's fastball to go with a good curveball and good enough command. He showed well in his small-sample pro debut, posting a 1.56 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings between complex ball and rookie level Kingsport, so the Mets hope that pro coaching can help him refine the edges of his game and make him into a potential impact prospect. Obviously, the risk is as high here as with any pitcher on this list.
Upper Level Hitters: OF Desmond Lindsay, 2B Luis Carpio, C Tomas Nido, 3B Will Toffey, 3B David Thompson, 3B Michael Paez, and OF Tim Tebow
When it comes to close-to-the-majors talent, the Mets really have nothing in terms of hitters after Peter Alonso and Andres Gimenez, with nobody projecting to be more than a back-up or utility man. 21 year old outfielder Desmond Lindsay may have some of the highest upside in this group, but he has struggled to put it together in the minors so far and slashed just .223/.317/.325 with three home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 96/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between High A St. Lucie and complex ball rehab work. He has good patience at the plate with some speed and feel for the barrel, but at the close of his fourth pro season, it looks like he'll never reach that ceiling. 2019 will be a big make or break season for him as a prospect. 21 year old Luis Carpio had a power breakout in 2018, slashing .219/.290/.364 with twelve home runs and an 81/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games, all but one of which was at St. Lucie. I call that a power breakout because from 2014-2017, Carpio hit just four home runs total, so twelve in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is a different look. Otherwise, he has a pretty light bat that he makes up for with good infield defense, looking like a back-up second baseman at this point. 24 year old Tomas Nido has already played in the majors, catching 39 games over 2017 and 2018 and slashing .181/.210/.255 along the way. Spending the rest of the season mostly with AA Binghamton as well as a few games at AAA Las Vegas, he slashed .272/.300/.431 with five home runs and a 38/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, showing good contact and a bit of power not enough for him to be even the short term answer to the Mets' catching problems but enough to put him in the back-up conversation for 2019. 23 year old Will Toffey has a pretty average bat, but his great plate discipline and good glove make him a player to watch. In 2018, he slashed .248/.374/.406 with nine home runs and an 85/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Oakland's High A Stockton and New York's Binghamton, actually getting better with his promotion to AA. As I said, the bat is pretty average, but look for him to keep moving up through the minors and end up in the majors as a back-up soon. 25 year old David Thompson was injured for much of 2018 (.244/.314/.359 in 25 games) but shows some marginal power and patience when healthy, and he could be a useful, power hitting pinch hitter as soon as 2019. 24 year old Michael Paez had a solid season at St. Lucie, slashing .270/.340/.404 with eleven home runs and a 79/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games. He has a pretty average all around game, but he also has no glaring weaknesses and has a good shot at challenging Carpio for that utility infielder spot. Lastly, we cannot write this section without talking about 31 year old Tim Tebow, an outfielder who we all know better as the former quarterback for the Florida Gators and later the Denver Broncos, among other teams. At AA Binghamton in 2018, he slashed .273/.336/.399 with six home runs and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 84 games, showing a surprisingly useful bat even if he still struck out at an alarming 34.6% rate. At 31 years old, I still doubt he ends up anything more than a publicity stunt, but at least with his decent production at AA, he may actually be worth the shot he's given to prove himself.
Lower Level Hitters: 3B Mark Vientos, SS Shervyen Newton, 2B Luis Santana, SS Ronny Mauricio, OF Adrian Hernandez, C Francisco Alvarez, and OF Freddy Valdez
The Mets have a lot more upside down on the farm, especially with hitters, and you could argue that their best non-Alonso/Gimenez talent passed through rookie level Kingsport this year. I got to head over to Pulaski, Virginia to see them play in August, where I came away impressed with a few players. 18 year old Mark Vientos probably has the best combination of upside and floor in this section, having slashed .287/.389/.489 with 11 home runs and a 43/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games at Kingsport. The 6'4" third baseman showed power, plate discipline, and solid defense in his stint in the Appalachian League, and he could turn himself into an impact prospect with a similar season next year in A ball by proving himself against higher velocities. 19 year old Shervyen Newton was part of the Kingsport crew this year, slashing .280/.408/.449 with five home runs and an 84/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He has a very patient approach that should continue to enable high on-base percentages for him, and with a loose, whippy swing from a 6'4" frame, he could have plus power in time. Contact will be the main thing for him to work on, as he struggles to catch up to harder fastballs, but I think the issue is mechanical and the Mets could have a serious prospect if they coach him right. 19 year old Luis Santana, yet another member of the Kingsport Mets this past season, had a big year statistically and slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs, eight stolen bases, and an excellent 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. He's just 5'8" but plays bigger, generating some decent power by employing a large leg kick without sacrificing that advanced approach. That leg kick might get him in trouble a bit against higher level pitching (it even did in the Appalachian League from time to time), but I would not underestimate him. 17 year old Ronny Mauricio is extremely young, and he slashed .273/.304/.410 with three home runs and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in his pro debut this year, playing mostly in complex ball with some exposure up at Kingsport. He's a slick fielding shortstop that has the tools to stay there, and while his bat is unproven, he handled complex ball well (.279/.307/.421) and should improve as he gets older. His overall offensive game is essentially average, obviously with a lot of time to grow and develop his skill set. He could be a breakout candidate for 2019 but we may have to wait until 2020 to see who Mauricio really is as a prospect. 17 year old Adrian Hernandez was right behind him, slashing .261/.351/.386 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 52/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games in complex ball. Despite standing 5'9", he shows more power and speed than Mauricio but profiles as an average-defending right fielder rather than a good shortstop. Like Mauricio, Hernandez has a lot to prove before moving up the lists or being labeled an impact prospect. Lastly, 17 year olds Francisco Alvarez and Freddy Valdez were both just signed out of Latin America and have not played yet. Alvarez is a Venezuelan catcher who is extremely raw (which is not surprising given he just turned 17), showing power and arm strength but needing work on the rest of his game. Valdez is a power hitting Dominican outfielder who already stood at 6'3" and 210 pounds on his 17th birthday, but like Alvarez, he'll need to work on his approach significantly. It's easy to project these recent signees as potential future stars, but there is also high risk involved and many don't make it past A ball.
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