RHP Ian Bedell, Missouri
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-2, 3.70 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 35/4 K/BB in 24.1 IP.
Ian Bedell's name had some heat early in the 2018 draft cycle coming out of high school in Davenport, Iowa, but he graduated a semester early so he could pitch for Missouri that year. He only got into seven games that year behind a loaded pitching staff that included TJ Sikkema (Yankees), Michael Plassmeyer (Rays), Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets), and Andy Toelken (Diamondbacks), but the groundwork was set. In 2019, he returned with a 1.56 ERA over 40.1 innings in long relief, then went and dominated the elite Cape Cod League to the tune of a 2.31 ERA and a 40/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 innings. In 2020, he was the same polished strike thrower he has been, but he was a bit more hittable across his four starts and finished with a 3.70 ERA and a 35/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 24.1 innings.
Despite standing 6'2", Bedell is pretty skinny and doesn't figure to get a whole lot bigger, so he gets stuck with the "undersized" label. In relief, he could run his fastball into the mid 90's, and as a starter on the Cape, it still had solid low 90's velocity. He sat closer to 90 at the start of the 2020 season, down a tick from where he's been, and while the velocity might have rebounded as the season went along, he didn't get the chance and that doesn't help him. His curveball is a short, tight breaking ball that has a history of missing bats wherever he's gone. He's also working in a slider that shows promise, and his changeup is a weapon against left handed batters as well.
None of Bedell's stuff stands out as true plus, but what he lacks there, he makes up for in intangibles. He's a very competitive pitcher that goes right after hitters, rarely hurting himself with walks and controlling the zone consistently. Between the Cape and the shortened 2020 season, that led to a combined 75/7 strikeout to walk ratio in 59.1 innings against good competition – not too shabby. Additionally, since he won't turn 21 until September, he's one of the youngest college arms available, adding to his upside.
His delivery isn't necessarily high-effort, but it's also not the most effortless you'll ever see, so combined with his size, it leads to relief and durability questions. If he proves durable, he'll need to add a little velocity to stick in a big league rotation, but it's hard to deny his success against advanced hitters in the SEC and on the Cape. His youth also inspires confidence that he'll take the necessary steps forward, in which case he could be a mid-rotation starter. Bedell likely finds himself drafted somewhere in the third to fifth rounds.
2020 start vs Baylor
Pitching on the Cape over the summer
Showing posts with label 2020 Draft Profile Series. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2020 Draft Profile Series. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 9, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Bryce Elder
RHP Bryce Elder, Texas
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/19/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 26 IP.
If you like a good old fashioned Texas workhorse, then Bryce Elder is your guy. Well, Texas A&M's Asa Lacy is your guy, but he's also everybody else's guy, so Elder is the one. A native of Decatur, just to the northwest of the DFW metroplex, Elder has improved every year with the Longhorns and has a 2.72 ERA and a 118/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 109 innings since the start of the 2019 season.
Sturdily built at 6'2" and 220 pounds, he profiles as a workhorse starter, and everything he throws is about sink. He works with average velocity with a fastball around 90, though he's been steadily adding velocity and is more often above that mark than below. The pitch features great sinking action and a little run as well, helping it play above its velocity and set up his other pitches. His slider has sharp downward bite and misses plenty of bats, and he's been working on a curveball as well. His changeup is a bit behind, but he's improving in that regard and has the feel for pitching to continue to develop it.
Elder is a polished strike thrower who goes right after hitters, which is perhaps his best attribute in addition to his solid stuff. He repeats his tilt and go delivery well, and with his durable frame, it all adds up a guy who could eat 200 innings a year. There are no real weak spots here, as he's one of the most complete pitchers you'll find outside of the top two rounds or so. That, in addition to the track record he has with the Longhorns, will be extremely attractive to teams on draft day.
With that sinker/slider combination, he fits best as a #4/#5 starter, but if his velocity continues trending up, he could work his way to a true mid rotation starter. That should get him drafted somewhere in the third round range, give or take. It's not the world's most exciting profile and it's unlikely he ends up at the top of a big league rotation at any point, but it will be great value as a high-floor innings eater. With a May birthday, he's relatively young for the class.
2020 start vs LSU
2019 start vs Texas Tech
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/19/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 26 IP.
If you like a good old fashioned Texas workhorse, then Bryce Elder is your guy. Well, Texas A&M's Asa Lacy is your guy, but he's also everybody else's guy, so Elder is the one. A native of Decatur, just to the northwest of the DFW metroplex, Elder has improved every year with the Longhorns and has a 2.72 ERA and a 118/40 strikeout to walk ratio in 109 innings since the start of the 2019 season.
Sturdily built at 6'2" and 220 pounds, he profiles as a workhorse starter, and everything he throws is about sink. He works with average velocity with a fastball around 90, though he's been steadily adding velocity and is more often above that mark than below. The pitch features great sinking action and a little run as well, helping it play above its velocity and set up his other pitches. His slider has sharp downward bite and misses plenty of bats, and he's been working on a curveball as well. His changeup is a bit behind, but he's improving in that regard and has the feel for pitching to continue to develop it.
Elder is a polished strike thrower who goes right after hitters, which is perhaps his best attribute in addition to his solid stuff. He repeats his tilt and go delivery well, and with his durable frame, it all adds up a guy who could eat 200 innings a year. There are no real weak spots here, as he's one of the most complete pitchers you'll find outside of the top two rounds or so. That, in addition to the track record he has with the Longhorns, will be extremely attractive to teams on draft day.
With that sinker/slider combination, he fits best as a #4/#5 starter, but if his velocity continues trending up, he could work his way to a true mid rotation starter. That should get him drafted somewhere in the third round range, give or take. It's not the world's most exciting profile and it's unlikely he ends up at the top of a big league rotation at any point, but it will be great value as a high-floor innings eater. With a May birthday, he's relatively young for the class.
2020 start vs LSU
2019 start vs Texas Tech
Monday, June 8, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Swiney
LHP Nick Swiney, North Carolina State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/12/1999.
2020 Stats: 4-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 42/6 K/BB in 28 IP.
Nick Swiney and Patrick Bailey form one of the better draft batteries in college baseball, but unlike the well-established Bailey, Swiney is a pop-up prospect who has significantly improved his stock this year. He was alright as a sophomore reliever in 2019, with a 4.61 ERA and a 95/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings, but in 2020, he took it to another level in his transition to starting. On February 29th, he allowed just one baserunner while striking out 15 over eight shutout innings against Purdue, his best start en route to a 1.29 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio across 28 innings.
Swiney doesn't throw all that hard, sitting around 90 with his fastball – sometimes a little above, sometimes a little below. He gets good deception on the pitch due to some crossfire action in his delivery, and it plays up when he locates it well. His curveball has two plane break and has missed bats throughout his college career, and his wide arm angle gives it some extra nice sweeping action. Lastly, his best pitch might be his changeup, coming in with great sinking action down in the zone. Despite not throwing all that hard, he has very effective secondaries to consistently retire both left handers and right handers.
The big difference between 2019 and 2020 has been command. After walking 12.6% of his opponents in 2019, he dropped that to 6.1% this year, and he was doing a much better job of hitting his spots within the zone as well. That command makes everything play up, and because he's new to starting, there is hope that he could add some velocity. He'll definitely need to do so if he wants to be more than a #5 starter, but if he can just get himself more consistently into the upper end of his velocity in the low 90's, he'd be in serious business.
Swiney was up to 94 when he pitched in relief, and the hope is that he can get close to that with more full time reps in the rotation. The ceiling here is that of a mid-rotation starter, and he could be very effective as a left handed reliever if the velocity doesn't bump up. He got off to such a dominant start in 2020, and teams love seeing that out of a lefty, so he has a pretty good shot at going in the second round despite the lack of velocity. Regardless, he should be gone by the end of the third or the early fourth at the latest.
Pitching in 2020
2020 start vs Purdue
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/12/1999.
2020 Stats: 4-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 42/6 K/BB in 28 IP.
Nick Swiney and Patrick Bailey form one of the better draft batteries in college baseball, but unlike the well-established Bailey, Swiney is a pop-up prospect who has significantly improved his stock this year. He was alright as a sophomore reliever in 2019, with a 4.61 ERA and a 95/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings, but in 2020, he took it to another level in his transition to starting. On February 29th, he allowed just one baserunner while striking out 15 over eight shutout innings against Purdue, his best start en route to a 1.29 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio across 28 innings.
Swiney doesn't throw all that hard, sitting around 90 with his fastball – sometimes a little above, sometimes a little below. He gets good deception on the pitch due to some crossfire action in his delivery, and it plays up when he locates it well. His curveball has two plane break and has missed bats throughout his college career, and his wide arm angle gives it some extra nice sweeping action. Lastly, his best pitch might be his changeup, coming in with great sinking action down in the zone. Despite not throwing all that hard, he has very effective secondaries to consistently retire both left handers and right handers.
The big difference between 2019 and 2020 has been command. After walking 12.6% of his opponents in 2019, he dropped that to 6.1% this year, and he was doing a much better job of hitting his spots within the zone as well. That command makes everything play up, and because he's new to starting, there is hope that he could add some velocity. He'll definitely need to do so if he wants to be more than a #5 starter, but if he can just get himself more consistently into the upper end of his velocity in the low 90's, he'd be in serious business.
Swiney was up to 94 when he pitched in relief, and the hope is that he can get close to that with more full time reps in the rotation. The ceiling here is that of a mid-rotation starter, and he could be very effective as a left handed reliever if the velocity doesn't bump up. He got off to such a dominant start in 2020, and teams love seeing that out of a lefty, so he has a pretty good shot at going in the second round despite the lack of velocity. Regardless, he should be gone by the end of the third or the early fourth at the latest.
Pitching in 2020
2020 start vs Purdue
Sunday, June 7, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Ty Floyd
RHP Ty Floyd, Rockmart HS [GA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/28/2001. Commitment: Louisiana State.
Georgia tends to be a hotbed for prep talent, though 2020 has been a bit different with only Decatur's Jordan Walker generating any real first round buzz. The best high school arm in the state is Rockmart's Ty Floyd, coming from just beyond the northwest reaches of the Atlanta suburbs. What Floyd lacks in polish, he makes up for in upside, and the LSU recruit has as wide a gap between his present ability and potential ability as anyone in this class – somewhat similar to lefty Ricky Tiedemann.
Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a fastball that typically sits in the low 90's, showing nice running action on the pitch that makes it hard to square up. That fastball comes from an extremely loose right arm that scouts can dream on, but the rest of his game is fringy. He throws a curve with good shape down in the zone, but it lacks power at this point and he doesn't locate it consistently. There's a changeup in there as well, but like the curve, it needs work. Floyd throws his fair share of strikes, though as has been the theme throughout this paragraph, he needs to refine his command in the zone.
So what makes Floyd a special arm? It's the looseness and athleticism that comes with it. He's very raw mechanically, just kind of flinging the ball towards the plate, but his arm works so well that it bails out his mediocre mechanics and helps him hit 95 with movement regardless. Teams that are confident in their pitching development pipelines look at that right arm and dream on what they could do with it. "If he's hitting 95 with these mechanics, what could he look like when we smooth him out?" On the slight down side, his August birthday makes him just a bit old for the class.
LSU already steered potential second round pick Dylan Crews away from the draft, and if they can do the same with Floyd, he could develop into a first round pick in 2023. Some teams undoubtedly would like to jump on him in the second or third round this year, before that happens, but they'd be doing so while taking on a lot of risk and a complete project. That limits his market a bit, while sharpening the interest in what remains of that market.
Pitching in 2020
Pitching over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/28/2001. Commitment: Louisiana State.
Georgia tends to be a hotbed for prep talent, though 2020 has been a bit different with only Decatur's Jordan Walker generating any real first round buzz. The best high school arm in the state is Rockmart's Ty Floyd, coming from just beyond the northwest reaches of the Atlanta suburbs. What Floyd lacks in polish, he makes up for in upside, and the LSU recruit has as wide a gap between his present ability and potential ability as anyone in this class – somewhat similar to lefty Ricky Tiedemann.
Floyd is a 6'2" righty with a fastball that typically sits in the low 90's, showing nice running action on the pitch that makes it hard to square up. That fastball comes from an extremely loose right arm that scouts can dream on, but the rest of his game is fringy. He throws a curve with good shape down in the zone, but it lacks power at this point and he doesn't locate it consistently. There's a changeup in there as well, but like the curve, it needs work. Floyd throws his fair share of strikes, though as has been the theme throughout this paragraph, he needs to refine his command in the zone.
So what makes Floyd a special arm? It's the looseness and athleticism that comes with it. He's very raw mechanically, just kind of flinging the ball towards the plate, but his arm works so well that it bails out his mediocre mechanics and helps him hit 95 with movement regardless. Teams that are confident in their pitching development pipelines look at that right arm and dream on what they could do with it. "If he's hitting 95 with these mechanics, what could he look like when we smooth him out?" On the slight down side, his August birthday makes him just a bit old for the class.
LSU already steered potential second round pick Dylan Crews away from the draft, and if they can do the same with Floyd, he could develop into a first round pick in 2023. Some teams undoubtedly would like to jump on him in the second or third round this year, before that happens, but they'd be doing so while taking on a lot of risk and a complete project. That limits his market a bit, while sharpening the interest in what remains of that market.
Pitching in 2020
Pitching over the summer
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Frasso
RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/18/1998.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 4.15 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 11/3 K/BB in 8.2 IP.
Loyola Marymount in Los Angeles produced just one top 100 pick from 2001-2019, when Cory Abbott went 67th overall to the Cubs in 2017, but Nick Frasso could be the next. Bringing an interesting combination of upside and present ability, Frasso has a strong track record at LMU, with a 2.80 ERA and a 158/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings. He had a chance to pitch his way into the first round this spring, but he lasted just 8.2 innings before forearm problems shut him down. If Frasso had worked his way back and proven he was healthy, he could have still gone in the first fifty or so picks with good performance, but unfortunately he never got the chance.
Frasso is a lanky kid at 6'5" and just 190 pounds, but he's a great athlete and very coordinated for his size. His fastball is in the low to mid 90's, and it plays up because his long arms help him get great extension towards the plate and because his funky delivery puts a lot of ride on the ball. While quite a few pitchers in this class can run their fastballs up to 97 like Frasso can, not many can match the velocity combined with the deception he puts on it. The rest of his arsenal is fairly fringy and will need development. He has a solid slider that can tunnel well off his fastball, though it's an average pitch for now. The changeup is behind both of those two, and it will need to be developed if he wants to start in pro ball.
Frasso fills up the strike zone and hits his spots consistently. That command is key, because it enables him to make his secondary pitches play up off his fastball, though it won't be enough on its own to keep him in the rotation. He'll need to sharpen up that slider and develop that changeup, but if he can, that's an impact starting pitcher. The forearm problems are a bit scary, because they often lead to Tommy John surgery, and he has yet to prove he is durable enough for the rotation. There is a lot of funk in his delivery, but he's athletic and repeats it well, so only a little bit of smoothing out here and there might be all he needs.
There is a wide range of outcomes here, anywhere from an impact starting pitcher to a funky long reliever. The injury clouds his draft status a little, so he probably fits somewhere in rounds three through five if he's signable, but he could provide a ton of value at that point in the draft if he bounces back healthy. I was really excited to see what he could do before the injury and the shutdown, and I remain optimistic on this one.
2020 start vs Washington
2019 start vs Baylor
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/18/1998.
2020 Stats: 0-1, 4.15 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 11/3 K/BB in 8.2 IP.
Loyola Marymount in Los Angeles produced just one top 100 pick from 2001-2019, when Cory Abbott went 67th overall to the Cubs in 2017, but Nick Frasso could be the next. Bringing an interesting combination of upside and present ability, Frasso has a strong track record at LMU, with a 2.80 ERA and a 158/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings. He had a chance to pitch his way into the first round this spring, but he lasted just 8.2 innings before forearm problems shut him down. If Frasso had worked his way back and proven he was healthy, he could have still gone in the first fifty or so picks with good performance, but unfortunately he never got the chance.
Frasso is a lanky kid at 6'5" and just 190 pounds, but he's a great athlete and very coordinated for his size. His fastball is in the low to mid 90's, and it plays up because his long arms help him get great extension towards the plate and because his funky delivery puts a lot of ride on the ball. While quite a few pitchers in this class can run their fastballs up to 97 like Frasso can, not many can match the velocity combined with the deception he puts on it. The rest of his arsenal is fairly fringy and will need development. He has a solid slider that can tunnel well off his fastball, though it's an average pitch for now. The changeup is behind both of those two, and it will need to be developed if he wants to start in pro ball.
Frasso fills up the strike zone and hits his spots consistently. That command is key, because it enables him to make his secondary pitches play up off his fastball, though it won't be enough on its own to keep him in the rotation. He'll need to sharpen up that slider and develop that changeup, but if he can, that's an impact starting pitcher. The forearm problems are a bit scary, because they often lead to Tommy John surgery, and he has yet to prove he is durable enough for the rotation. There is a lot of funk in his delivery, but he's athletic and repeats it well, so only a little bit of smoothing out here and there might be all he needs.
There is a wide range of outcomes here, anywhere from an impact starting pitcher to a funky long reliever. The injury clouds his draft status a little, so he probably fits somewhere in rounds three through five if he's signable, but he could provide a ton of value at that point in the draft if he bounces back healthy. I was really excited to see what he could do before the injury and the shutdown, and I remain optimistic on this one.
2020 start vs Washington
2019 start vs Baylor
2020 Draft Profile: Anthony Servideo
SS Anthony Servideo, Mississippi
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/11/1999. B/T: L/R.
2020 Stats: 5 HR, .390/.575/.695, 9 SB, 16/24 K/BB in 17 games.
It's hard to have a lower low and a higher high than Servideo had over the past year on the field. He was a relatively consistent if unspectacular hitter as a sophomore at Ole Miss, slashing .287/.429/.388 with three home runs and earning a trip to the Cape Cod League. There, against elite competition, his bat fell completely silent – .149/.277/.228 over 32 games, 37 strikeouts to just 15 hits, and a quickly tanking draft resume. Then, something changed in 2020. He started off with a bang, picking up two hits off likely top ten overall pick Reid Detmers in his first game, and kept on rolling. Through 17 games this year, Servideo had slashed .390/.575/.695 with five home runs, nine stolen bases in ten tries, and 24 walks over 17 games – leading all of Division I with 51 times on base. Now scouts have to decide who the real Anthony Servideo is.
This might not be my boldest prediction ever, but he's probably somewhere between that .149 Cape hitter and that .390 2020 hitter. Servideo is a high-energy player with long, artificially bleached blond hair, who as you might expect served as the catalyst for an Ole Miss offense that won 16 games in a row after losing to Detmers and the Louisville Cardinals in the opener. He's a bit undersized at 5'10", but he finds the barrel extremely easily with great pitch selection, and in 2020 he was aggressively doing damage on pitches in the zone while leaving the ones outside of it. Though he had a stretch of four home runs in five games at one point in 2020, he's likely to be more of a contact hitter in pro ball due to his size, as his power was more a product of punishing mistakes than of brute strength. That's alright, because you don't put up a .575 on-base percentage by accident, and his plus wheels helped him steal 33 bases in 83 games dating back to his sophomore year.
Servideo's profile is also aided by his defense, as he's a lock to stick at shortstop with quickness, arm strength, and instincts. The real question that teams will grapple with, however, is the bat. While he's an adept contact hitter who has shown the ability to punish mistakes with some ambush power, it's important to remember that his track record of high-level performance is just 17 games – 16 if you consider an 0-4 in his final game of the season. He hit just .149 on the Cape and .272/.353/.350 over last year's SEC slate, so there's not much of a track record of performance against high level arms. Aside from that Louisville series, Ole Miss didn't play the strongest non-conference schedule, and three other Rebel starters hit better than .350 this year, including likely fourth or fifth rounder Tyler Keenan's .403/.488/.791 line.
Servideo's most likely outlook is that of a strong utility infielder, one who can hold his own in the lineup with on-base ability, ambush power, and speed, but he just hasn't done quite enough to convince some evaluators he'll hit for impact at the highest level. If the 2020 season had been played out in full and he had continued his hot hitting into SEC play, he very well may have, and we could be talking about him in the first round range. That makes this a very high upside play for a college hitter, and a team selecting Servideo in rounds two through four could get rewarded heavily. At the very least, his defense and speed will make him a valuable utility infielder, and his ceiling likely has him at 10-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, plenty of stolen bases, and good defense at shortstop – All Star upside.
Highlights from his junior season
Game at bats as a sophomore
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/11/1999. B/T: L/R.
2020 Stats: 5 HR, .390/.575/.695, 9 SB, 16/24 K/BB in 17 games.
It's hard to have a lower low and a higher high than Servideo had over the past year on the field. He was a relatively consistent if unspectacular hitter as a sophomore at Ole Miss, slashing .287/.429/.388 with three home runs and earning a trip to the Cape Cod League. There, against elite competition, his bat fell completely silent – .149/.277/.228 over 32 games, 37 strikeouts to just 15 hits, and a quickly tanking draft resume. Then, something changed in 2020. He started off with a bang, picking up two hits off likely top ten overall pick Reid Detmers in his first game, and kept on rolling. Through 17 games this year, Servideo had slashed .390/.575/.695 with five home runs, nine stolen bases in ten tries, and 24 walks over 17 games – leading all of Division I with 51 times on base. Now scouts have to decide who the real Anthony Servideo is.
This might not be my boldest prediction ever, but he's probably somewhere between that .149 Cape hitter and that .390 2020 hitter. Servideo is a high-energy player with long, artificially bleached blond hair, who as you might expect served as the catalyst for an Ole Miss offense that won 16 games in a row after losing to Detmers and the Louisville Cardinals in the opener. He's a bit undersized at 5'10", but he finds the barrel extremely easily with great pitch selection, and in 2020 he was aggressively doing damage on pitches in the zone while leaving the ones outside of it. Though he had a stretch of four home runs in five games at one point in 2020, he's likely to be more of a contact hitter in pro ball due to his size, as his power was more a product of punishing mistakes than of brute strength. That's alright, because you don't put up a .575 on-base percentage by accident, and his plus wheels helped him steal 33 bases in 83 games dating back to his sophomore year.
Servideo's profile is also aided by his defense, as he's a lock to stick at shortstop with quickness, arm strength, and instincts. The real question that teams will grapple with, however, is the bat. While he's an adept contact hitter who has shown the ability to punish mistakes with some ambush power, it's important to remember that his track record of high-level performance is just 17 games – 16 if you consider an 0-4 in his final game of the season. He hit just .149 on the Cape and .272/.353/.350 over last year's SEC slate, so there's not much of a track record of performance against high level arms. Aside from that Louisville series, Ole Miss didn't play the strongest non-conference schedule, and three other Rebel starters hit better than .350 this year, including likely fourth or fifth rounder Tyler Keenan's .403/.488/.791 line.
Servideo's most likely outlook is that of a strong utility infielder, one who can hold his own in the lineup with on-base ability, ambush power, and speed, but he just hasn't done quite enough to convince some evaluators he'll hit for impact at the highest level. If the 2020 season had been played out in full and he had continued his hot hitting into SEC play, he very well may have, and we could be talking about him in the first round range. That makes this a very high upside play for a college hitter, and a team selecting Servideo in rounds two through four could get rewarded heavily. At the very least, his defense and speed will make him a valuable utility infielder, and his ceiling likely has him at 10-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, plenty of stolen bases, and good defense at shortstop – All Star upside.
Highlights from his junior season
Game at bats as a sophomore
Saturday, June 6, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Connor Phillips
RHP Connor Phillips, McLennan CC [TX]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/4/2001.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 27/15 K/BB in 25.2 IP.
Connor Phillips was a well-known draft prospect coming out of Magnolia West High School just outside of Houston, where he played across town from Magnolia High School stars Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein, who combined to receive $5.9 million from the Blue Jays in the 2018 draft. The Jays then grabbed Phillips in the 35th round a year later, but he wasn't signable at that point and instead of heading to Louisiana State, he switched up to McLennan Community College in Waco so he could be draft-eligible again this year. The move paid off, as his stuff has continued to progress and he cleanly fits into the top tier of junior college pitching prospects this year.
Phillips fits closer to most high school arms than college arms because he's still mostly about projection. The difference between this year and last year, though, is that he's begun to take the steps forward evaluators were hoping to see. The 6'2" righty has room to add more good weight and uses a loose delivery to bring fastballs in the low to mid 90's, which play up due to the nice armside run he gets on them. Because his delivery works so well and he's able to efficiently channel power from his core, he can hold that velocity deep into games. He throws a slider and a curveball as well, which he has been sharpening up, and both have the chance to be plus pitches. As with most young pitchers, the changeup is a bit behind and requires some projection.
Though his delivery is so free and easy, he sometimes struggles to repeat his arm slot and release point, leading to inconsistent command. That's the main thing that causes some more pessimistic scouts to project him as a reliever, but it's important to remember he only turned 19 in May, making him the same age as some of the oldest players in the high school class. The combination of youth and positive trajectory should intrigue a lot of teams, possibly starting as early as the second round, and he should be off the board by the fourth if he's signable. He's set to return to McLennan rather than move on to a Division I program unless something changes soon, so I'd imagine that he is.
Pitching in high school
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/4/2001.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 27/15 K/BB in 25.2 IP.
Connor Phillips was a well-known draft prospect coming out of Magnolia West High School just outside of Houston, where he played across town from Magnolia High School stars Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein, who combined to receive $5.9 million from the Blue Jays in the 2018 draft. The Jays then grabbed Phillips in the 35th round a year later, but he wasn't signable at that point and instead of heading to Louisiana State, he switched up to McLennan Community College in Waco so he could be draft-eligible again this year. The move paid off, as his stuff has continued to progress and he cleanly fits into the top tier of junior college pitching prospects this year.
Phillips fits closer to most high school arms than college arms because he's still mostly about projection. The difference between this year and last year, though, is that he's begun to take the steps forward evaluators were hoping to see. The 6'2" righty has room to add more good weight and uses a loose delivery to bring fastballs in the low to mid 90's, which play up due to the nice armside run he gets on them. Because his delivery works so well and he's able to efficiently channel power from his core, he can hold that velocity deep into games. He throws a slider and a curveball as well, which he has been sharpening up, and both have the chance to be plus pitches. As with most young pitchers, the changeup is a bit behind and requires some projection.
Though his delivery is so free and easy, he sometimes struggles to repeat his arm slot and release point, leading to inconsistent command. That's the main thing that causes some more pessimistic scouts to project him as a reliever, but it's important to remember he only turned 19 in May, making him the same age as some of the oldest players in the high school class. The combination of youth and positive trajectory should intrigue a lot of teams, possibly starting as early as the second round, and he should be off the board by the fourth if he's signable. He's set to return to McLennan rather than move on to a Division I program unless something changes soon, so I'd imagine that he is.
Pitching in high school
2020 Draft Profile: Beck Way
RHP Beck Way, Northwest Florida CC
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/6/1999. Commitment: Louisiana State.
2020 Stats: 5-0, 0.67 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 58/9 K/BB in 40 IP.
Way is well-travelled, having played high school ball in the Harrisburg, Pennsylvania area before heading down to Division II Belmont Abbey in the Charlotte, North Carolina area. After one season for the Crusaders, he transferred farther south to Northwest Florida State in Niceville, and if he doesn't sign in the 2020 draft, he'll head west again to LSU. Way first began to appear on the map after a strong summer in the elite Cape Cod League a year ago, putting up a 3.29 ERA and striking out 18 in 13.2 innings, and he took things to another level this spring. The warm weather in Florida enabled him to make seven appearances in the shortened season, in which he dominated the competition with a 0.67 ERA and a 58/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, positioning himself as perhaps the best junior college arm in the class.
The difference for Way has been, well, everything. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, but he can reach back for as much as 97 and the pitch plays up due to some running life coming from a low three quarters, almost sidearm slot. His slider is relatively inconsistent, but it flashes plus at times with nice late bite down in the zone. There is also a changeup with great fade to the arm side, and he proved durable by averaging six innings per start in 2020 (plus a four inning relief appearance). Way's command is also improving, having gone from below average over the summer (he walked 11 in 13.2 innings on the Cape) to above average this spring (9 walks in 40 innings). With three pitches that flash plus, a durable 6'4" frame, and improving command, Way shows a lot of starter traits that teams covet out of an arm that won't turn 21 until August.
Beck Way is probably the most complete arm in a pretty strong junior college class this year, which could push him off the board as early as the second round and which likely won't allow him to fall out of the third. He needs to refine his breaking ball and prove that the progress he's made with his command is legitimate, because that lower arm slot and the moderate amount of effort he puts into his delivery raise some minor relief concerns. With how he looked in 2020, though, many teams are likely confident that he'll stick in the rotation.
Pitching in 2020
Hype video Beck put togeher
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/6/1999. Commitment: Louisiana State.
2020 Stats: 5-0, 0.67 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 58/9 K/BB in 40 IP.
Way is well-travelled, having played high school ball in the Harrisburg, Pennsylvania area before heading down to Division II Belmont Abbey in the Charlotte, North Carolina area. After one season for the Crusaders, he transferred farther south to Northwest Florida State in Niceville, and if he doesn't sign in the 2020 draft, he'll head west again to LSU. Way first began to appear on the map after a strong summer in the elite Cape Cod League a year ago, putting up a 3.29 ERA and striking out 18 in 13.2 innings, and he took things to another level this spring. The warm weather in Florida enabled him to make seven appearances in the shortened season, in which he dominated the competition with a 0.67 ERA and a 58/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, positioning himself as perhaps the best junior college arm in the class.
The difference for Way has been, well, everything. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, but he can reach back for as much as 97 and the pitch plays up due to some running life coming from a low three quarters, almost sidearm slot. His slider is relatively inconsistent, but it flashes plus at times with nice late bite down in the zone. There is also a changeup with great fade to the arm side, and he proved durable by averaging six innings per start in 2020 (plus a four inning relief appearance). Way's command is also improving, having gone from below average over the summer (he walked 11 in 13.2 innings on the Cape) to above average this spring (9 walks in 40 innings). With three pitches that flash plus, a durable 6'4" frame, and improving command, Way shows a lot of starter traits that teams covet out of an arm that won't turn 21 until August.
Beck Way is probably the most complete arm in a pretty strong junior college class this year, which could push him off the board as early as the second round and which likely won't allow him to fall out of the third. He needs to refine his breaking ball and prove that the progress he's made with his command is legitimate, because that lower arm slot and the moderate amount of effort he puts into his delivery raise some minor relief concerns. With how he looked in 2020, though, many teams are likely confident that he'll stick in the rotation.
Pitching in 2020
Hype video Beck put togeher
2020 Draft Profile: Luke Little
LHP Luke Little, San Jacinto CC [TX]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/3/2000. Commitment: South Carolina.
2020 Stats: 1-0, 2.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 17/3 K/BB in 9 IP.
There are four frontrunners for the top junior college arm in the class, and somehow, three landed right next to each other in my rankings. Though McLennan's Connor Phillips, Northwest Florida's Beck Way, and San Jacinto's Brandon Birdsell are more complete pitchers, Birdsell's teammate Luke Little is easily the most famous. That's because earlier in the spring, he hit 105 MPH in a bullpen session and turned heads around the country. Yeah. That happened. He's had significant control issues in the past – Little walked 36 batters in 35.1 innings as a freshman – but he was off to a strong start in 2020 and walked just three in nine innings.
Luke Little is a 6'8" lefty that can hit 105. That alone makes him unique in the history of baseball, seemingly maxing out three of the more important aspects scouts look for in pitchers velocity, height, and handedness. He maxes out those three categories to the point where it sounds like a joke, but it's real. Little more often sits in the mid to upper 90's in longer stints with that fastball, but he has consistently shown the ability to run it into triple digits and in that famous bullpen session, he was consistently sitting 101-102 throughout. Not only does it have top of the scale velocity, but his long arms and crossfire delivery help him get great angle on his pitches, so when he locates it, it's probably the best fastball in the class, period. Little also throws a slider, which is fairly inconsistent, but he can flash some good ones.
The command has been more of a question. It's pretty evident that Little, who will be just 19 years old on draft day, is still growing into his body. He struggles to keep his very long arms and legs in sync, which has given him 35 grade (non-playable) command in the past. He only threw nine innings in 2020 due to missed time with back issues, but the command looked closer to 45 grade (simply below average) in that stint. If he maintained that 45 grade command over the course of the spring, he could have moved up boards considerably more than he did, and it would have inspired a lot more confidence that he could fill up the zone in pro ball. Still, without significant further refinement of his command and developing a changeup, he more than likely ends up in the bullpen.
Personally, I'm on the optimistic side here – Little is young for a college sophomore and still figuring himself out, and the progress he's already made both in velocity and mechanics is very promising. I doubt he ever ends up a starter, but with a little more mechanical cleanup, the idea of a 6'8" lefty sitting in the triple digits out of the bullpen is a scary thought. If he were on the older side for his class, say an August '99 birthday rather than an August '00 birthday, I might be a bit less optimistic about his future, but I think the youth is key here and that he's only scratching the surface of his potential. I think he would be best off fulfilling his commitment to South Carolina and putting in a full year in the SEC to grow, but that's his decision to make. A team buying into the elite fastball could pop him as early as the late second round, but he more likely ends up in the three to five range.
Hitting 105 in a bullpen
Pitching in the fall
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/3/2000. Commitment: South Carolina.
2020 Stats: 1-0, 2.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 17/3 K/BB in 9 IP.
There are four frontrunners for the top junior college arm in the class, and somehow, three landed right next to each other in my rankings. Though McLennan's Connor Phillips, Northwest Florida's Beck Way, and San Jacinto's Brandon Birdsell are more complete pitchers, Birdsell's teammate Luke Little is easily the most famous. That's because earlier in the spring, he hit 105 MPH in a bullpen session and turned heads around the country. Yeah. That happened. He's had significant control issues in the past – Little walked 36 batters in 35.1 innings as a freshman – but he was off to a strong start in 2020 and walked just three in nine innings.
Luke Little is a 6'8" lefty that can hit 105. That alone makes him unique in the history of baseball, seemingly maxing out three of the more important aspects scouts look for in pitchers velocity, height, and handedness. He maxes out those three categories to the point where it sounds like a joke, but it's real. Little more often sits in the mid to upper 90's in longer stints with that fastball, but he has consistently shown the ability to run it into triple digits and in that famous bullpen session, he was consistently sitting 101-102 throughout. Not only does it have top of the scale velocity, but his long arms and crossfire delivery help him get great angle on his pitches, so when he locates it, it's probably the best fastball in the class, period. Little also throws a slider, which is fairly inconsistent, but he can flash some good ones.
The command has been more of a question. It's pretty evident that Little, who will be just 19 years old on draft day, is still growing into his body. He struggles to keep his very long arms and legs in sync, which has given him 35 grade (non-playable) command in the past. He only threw nine innings in 2020 due to missed time with back issues, but the command looked closer to 45 grade (simply below average) in that stint. If he maintained that 45 grade command over the course of the spring, he could have moved up boards considerably more than he did, and it would have inspired a lot more confidence that he could fill up the zone in pro ball. Still, without significant further refinement of his command and developing a changeup, he more than likely ends up in the bullpen.
Personally, I'm on the optimistic side here – Little is young for a college sophomore and still figuring himself out, and the progress he's already made both in velocity and mechanics is very promising. I doubt he ever ends up a starter, but with a little more mechanical cleanup, the idea of a 6'8" lefty sitting in the triple digits out of the bullpen is a scary thought. If he were on the older side for his class, say an August '99 birthday rather than an August '00 birthday, I might be a bit less optimistic about his future, but I think the youth is key here and that he's only scratching the surface of his potential. I think he would be best off fulfilling his commitment to South Carolina and putting in a full year in the SEC to grow, but that's his decision to make. A team buying into the elite fastball could pop him as early as the late second round, but he more likely ends up in the three to five range.
Hitting 105 in a bullpen
Pitching in the fall
Friday, June 5, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Tanner Witt
RHP Tanner Witt, Episcopal HS [TX]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/11/2002. Commitment: Texas.
Kevin Witt was a first rounder out of Jacksonville, Florida in 1994 before hitting 15 home runs over parts of five seasons in the majors. 26 years later, his son, Tanner, won't match him in terms of draft position (at least not out of high school), but he could absolutely outplay his dad in the majors. He's actually one of the better two-way prospects in the country, though his future is more likely on the mound.
Witt stands out most due to his projectability. With a very skinny 6'6" frame that has room for plenty more good weight, he figures to add plenty of velocity and power to his already solid stuff. He has a little bit of windmill action in his arm path, running fastballs around 90 but touching as high as 95 just before the shutdown. He pairs that fastball with a very solid curveball, one that shows good shape but which could use to add some power. His slider and changeup are both in the early stages of their development, but he has shown feel for them and could have a four pitch mix in time.
Though he's lanky, Witt is very coordinated on the mound and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, repeating his delivery fairly consistently. That gives him solid command and helps further project velocity gains as he fills out. Witt is also young for the class with a July birthday, adding another line to the list of reasons he could be an ace.
It's an interesting study here, because Witt has all these reasons why he should get better – he's tall, he's coordinated, he's young, etc. But aside from the brief velocity gains we saw this spring, he still remains a work in progress with a lot to prove. He's supposedly a very tough sign away from Texas, where he could go on to take all those projected steps forward and become a first round arm in 2023. If a team likes him enough to pony up the big signing bonus that will keep him from Austin, it will likely happen in the second round, though for a lot of teams he's likely more of a third round talent. Texas has a loaded recruiting class this year that also includes Jared Jones, Carson Tucker, Petey Halpin, and the arguably the top high school pitcher in the class, Jared Kelley, so Longhorn baseball fans could have a lot to look forward to.
2020 game action (check out that Texas-sized scoreboard)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/11/2002. Commitment: Texas.
Kevin Witt was a first rounder out of Jacksonville, Florida in 1994 before hitting 15 home runs over parts of five seasons in the majors. 26 years later, his son, Tanner, won't match him in terms of draft position (at least not out of high school), but he could absolutely outplay his dad in the majors. He's actually one of the better two-way prospects in the country, though his future is more likely on the mound.
Witt stands out most due to his projectability. With a very skinny 6'6" frame that has room for plenty more good weight, he figures to add plenty of velocity and power to his already solid stuff. He has a little bit of windmill action in his arm path, running fastballs around 90 but touching as high as 95 just before the shutdown. He pairs that fastball with a very solid curveball, one that shows good shape but which could use to add some power. His slider and changeup are both in the early stages of their development, but he has shown feel for them and could have a four pitch mix in time.
Though he's lanky, Witt is very coordinated on the mound and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, repeating his delivery fairly consistently. That gives him solid command and helps further project velocity gains as he fills out. Witt is also young for the class with a July birthday, adding another line to the list of reasons he could be an ace.
It's an interesting study here, because Witt has all these reasons why he should get better – he's tall, he's coordinated, he's young, etc. But aside from the brief velocity gains we saw this spring, he still remains a work in progress with a lot to prove. He's supposedly a very tough sign away from Texas, where he could go on to take all those projected steps forward and become a first round arm in 2023. If a team likes him enough to pony up the big signing bonus that will keep him from Austin, it will likely happen in the second round, though for a lot of teams he's likely more of a third round talent. Texas has a loaded recruiting class this year that also includes Jared Jones, Carson Tucker, Petey Halpin, and the arguably the top high school pitcher in the class, Jared Kelley, so Longhorn baseball fans could have a lot to look forward to.
2020 game action (check out that Texas-sized scoreboard)
2020 Draft Profile: Markevian Hence
RHP Markevian Hence, Watson Chapel HS [AR]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/6/2002. Commitment: Arkansas.
In 1993, the city of Pine Bluff, Arkansas produced an exceptional talent in young outfielder Torii Hunter, who eschewed a commitment to Arkansas to sign with the Twins at 20th overall. 27 years later, while he won't go as high in the draft, fellow Arkansas signee Markevian Hence has a chance to follow in his footsteps and become a big league star. One of the younger players available in this class, Hence is an exciting arm with plenty of upside to tap into.
He's a bit smaller at 6'1" and with a skinny frame, but he packs a lot of punch. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he can get into the mid 90's at times as well and there seems to be more velocity in the tank. He has great feel to spin the ball, showing both a slider and a curveball with nice bite. Both need work, but he can really snap off some good ones and both could be plus pitches. He also has a changeup, though like most high schoolers, it's an average pitch and could develop in any number of ways.
Hence throws strikes, but perhaps his most attractive asset is his quick, loose right arm. Undersized right handers often elicit a lot of reliever labels, but that natural athleticism makes him seem more like a potential Max Meyer-type of impact starter than a short reliever. Of course, he lacks Meyer's plus-plus slider, but he spins the ball well enough to project a strength in that area regardless. In that sense, he brings a lot of risk factors, but you can make a lot of valid excuses as to why those risk factors aren't as big of a deal as they seem. As a major plus, Hence won't turn 18 until August, making him very young for his class.
Hence looks like an impact starter if he can hold up under a full season's workload and refine that secondary stuff just a little bit, at least the latter of which he is clearly capable of. If he's signable away from Arkansas, which is reeling in an excellent recruiting class this year, he could just scrape that second comp round as his ceiling but more likely fits in round three or four. Personally, I look at him and then look over to Max Meyer and get excited about his future.
Fall game action
More fall game action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/6/2002. Commitment: Arkansas.
In 1993, the city of Pine Bluff, Arkansas produced an exceptional talent in young outfielder Torii Hunter, who eschewed a commitment to Arkansas to sign with the Twins at 20th overall. 27 years later, while he won't go as high in the draft, fellow Arkansas signee Markevian Hence has a chance to follow in his footsteps and become a big league star. One of the younger players available in this class, Hence is an exciting arm with plenty of upside to tap into.
He's a bit smaller at 6'1" and with a skinny frame, but he packs a lot of punch. His fastball sits in the low 90's, but he can get into the mid 90's at times as well and there seems to be more velocity in the tank. He has great feel to spin the ball, showing both a slider and a curveball with nice bite. Both need work, but he can really snap off some good ones and both could be plus pitches. He also has a changeup, though like most high schoolers, it's an average pitch and could develop in any number of ways.
Hence throws strikes, but perhaps his most attractive asset is his quick, loose right arm. Undersized right handers often elicit a lot of reliever labels, but that natural athleticism makes him seem more like a potential Max Meyer-type of impact starter than a short reliever. Of course, he lacks Meyer's plus-plus slider, but he spins the ball well enough to project a strength in that area regardless. In that sense, he brings a lot of risk factors, but you can make a lot of valid excuses as to why those risk factors aren't as big of a deal as they seem. As a major plus, Hence won't turn 18 until August, making him very young for his class.
Hence looks like an impact starter if he can hold up under a full season's workload and refine that secondary stuff just a little bit, at least the latter of which he is clearly capable of. If he's signable away from Arkansas, which is reeling in an excellent recruiting class this year, he could just scrape that second comp round as his ceiling but more likely fits in round three or four. Personally, I look at him and then look over to Max Meyer and get excited about his future.
Fall game action
More fall game action
2020 Draft Profile: Yohandy Morales
3B Yohandy Morales, Braddock HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/2001. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Miami.
Miami landed four huge recruits from right in their backyard between Victor Mederos, Alejandro Rosario, Yohandy Morales, and Carlos Perez, all of whom attend high school within fifteen miles of campus. Morales is the top hitter in this loaded class, one whose name was trending up when the season shut down thanks to his big raw power and improving ability to get to it. With a lot of power over hit high school bats in this class, Morales even stands out a bit with some defensive value to boot.
Morales' best tool is his raw power. At 6'4", he creates plenty of natural leverage from his long arms and legs, and with a loose swing, some natural loft, there's plenty more power to project as he gets stronger. For most of his prep career, he's had significant swing and miss concerns stemming from a noisy setup and mediocre pitch recognition. There was a lot going on in his swing, and it was hard for him to get everything in order in time to catch up to velocity or react to good breaking balls. However, this spring, he reportedly came out with a much quieter, more efficient setup and swing, and early reports said he was using it to make much more consistent contact.
If Morales' adjustments were for real, then he's taken a very tangible step forward towards his lofty ceiling as a hitter. One interesting separator on his part is his defense – he's not a plus defender by any means, but he should be a solid-average third baseman, which is in contrast to many of this year's prep power hitters that figure to be limited to first base or left field. We're looking at a ceiling of a 30 home run hitter with decent on-base percentages if he can continue to improve his pitch recognition, though with the clear risk that comes with any inability to do so from a high schooler. If he's signable away from Miami, he likely ends up somewhere in rounds three through five.
Summer game footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/2001. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Miami.
Miami landed four huge recruits from right in their backyard between Victor Mederos, Alejandro Rosario, Yohandy Morales, and Carlos Perez, all of whom attend high school within fifteen miles of campus. Morales is the top hitter in this loaded class, one whose name was trending up when the season shut down thanks to his big raw power and improving ability to get to it. With a lot of power over hit high school bats in this class, Morales even stands out a bit with some defensive value to boot.
Morales' best tool is his raw power. At 6'4", he creates plenty of natural leverage from his long arms and legs, and with a loose swing, some natural loft, there's plenty more power to project as he gets stronger. For most of his prep career, he's had significant swing and miss concerns stemming from a noisy setup and mediocre pitch recognition. There was a lot going on in his swing, and it was hard for him to get everything in order in time to catch up to velocity or react to good breaking balls. However, this spring, he reportedly came out with a much quieter, more efficient setup and swing, and early reports said he was using it to make much more consistent contact.
If Morales' adjustments were for real, then he's taken a very tangible step forward towards his lofty ceiling as a hitter. One interesting separator on his part is his defense – he's not a plus defender by any means, but he should be a solid-average third baseman, which is in contrast to many of this year's prep power hitters that figure to be limited to first base or left field. We're looking at a ceiling of a 30 home run hitter with decent on-base percentages if he can continue to improve his pitch recognition, though with the clear risk that comes with any inability to do so from a high schooler. If he's signable away from Miami, he likely ends up somewhere in rounds three through five.
Summer game footage
Thursday, June 4, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Ricky Tiedemann
LHP Ricky Tiedemann, Lakewood HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/18/2002. Commitment: San Diego State.
Ricky Tiedemann's older brother, Tai, was drafted in the eighth round out of Long Beach City College in 2016, putting up a nice season at Class A Hickory in the Rangers' system in 2019. Now his younger brother, Ricky, has a chance to beat his draft selection by a significant margin. Depending on your views on Long Beach State's Adam Seminaris, Tiedemann is probably the best left handed pitching prospect in Southern California, coming out of the same Lakewood High School that produced Mariners infielder J.P. Crawford, Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud, Rangers infielder Matt Duffy, and longtime big league infielder Damion Easley, among numerous others. While Tiedemann is far from a finished product, there's a consensus among scouts that he has an immense ceiling.
The very first thing you will notice about Tiedemann, aside from his long brown hair, is the looseness of his operation. He's an excellent athlete at 6'4" with great body control, an exceptionally loose arm that whips in fastballs around 90, and he figures to add significant velocity with added weight and improved mechanics. He has a slider, but it's fairly rudimentary right now and would need to be fully developed by a major league team. Lastly, he throws a changeup which is probably his best pitch right now. He gets great armside fade out of it, which plays really well off of his wide arm slot and the angle he gets on his other pitches.
Tiedemann throws his share of strikes, which is a plus and shows that he's not a complete project. Once he learns to channel his strength into his pitches and really drive towards the plate, and that seems very likely given his body control and athleticism, he could go from a lower velocity guy to a power arm. The fastball and changeup especially have the chance to tunnel off each other and become true weapons, and if he can sharpen that slider a bit, you're looking at an impact starting pitcher. For yet another positive, Tiedemann is very young for the class and won't turn 18 until August, giving him all the more time to develop.
As with any high school arm, there is significant risk here, but Tiedemann's left handedness and his natural athleticism alleviate at least some of that. You definitely have to squint a little bit, but it's really pretty easy to imagine him as an impact starting pitcher once you do. He'll need to develop that breaking ball and and refine his mechanics, though I'm definitely confident in at least the latter. He probably figures to go somewhere in rounds two through four if he's signable away from San Diego State.
2020 game action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/18/2002. Commitment: San Diego State.
Ricky Tiedemann's older brother, Tai, was drafted in the eighth round out of Long Beach City College in 2016, putting up a nice season at Class A Hickory in the Rangers' system in 2019. Now his younger brother, Ricky, has a chance to beat his draft selection by a significant margin. Depending on your views on Long Beach State's Adam Seminaris, Tiedemann is probably the best left handed pitching prospect in Southern California, coming out of the same Lakewood High School that produced Mariners infielder J.P. Crawford, Braves catcher Travis d'Arnaud, Rangers infielder Matt Duffy, and longtime big league infielder Damion Easley, among numerous others. While Tiedemann is far from a finished product, there's a consensus among scouts that he has an immense ceiling.
The very first thing you will notice about Tiedemann, aside from his long brown hair, is the looseness of his operation. He's an excellent athlete at 6'4" with great body control, an exceptionally loose arm that whips in fastballs around 90, and he figures to add significant velocity with added weight and improved mechanics. He has a slider, but it's fairly rudimentary right now and would need to be fully developed by a major league team. Lastly, he throws a changeup which is probably his best pitch right now. He gets great armside fade out of it, which plays really well off of his wide arm slot and the angle he gets on his other pitches.
Tiedemann throws his share of strikes, which is a plus and shows that he's not a complete project. Once he learns to channel his strength into his pitches and really drive towards the plate, and that seems very likely given his body control and athleticism, he could go from a lower velocity guy to a power arm. The fastball and changeup especially have the chance to tunnel off each other and become true weapons, and if he can sharpen that slider a bit, you're looking at an impact starting pitcher. For yet another positive, Tiedemann is very young for the class and won't turn 18 until August, giving him all the more time to develop.
As with any high school arm, there is significant risk here, but Tiedemann's left handedness and his natural athleticism alleviate at least some of that. You definitely have to squint a little bit, but it's really pretty easy to imagine him as an impact starting pitcher once you do. He'll need to develop that breaking ball and and refine his mechanics, though I'm definitely confident in at least the latter. He probably figures to go somewhere in rounds two through four if he's signable away from San Diego State.
2020 game action
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Kala'i Rosario
OF Kala'i Rosario, Waiakea HS [HI]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/2/2002. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: California Baptist.
Hawaii has given us players like Kolten Wong, Kurt Suzuki, and Kirby Yates, but only after they want off to college. Every year, there tends to be a couple of prospects here and there, but otherwise the islands are not a major exporter of baseball talent. In 2020, yet another "K" first name is set to try to break through in outfielder Kala'i Rosario, the top Hawaiian in the class. Armed with some of the best power in the high school class, he could be drafted high enough this year to forego a commitment to California Baptist.
Rosario can hit the ball a mile with relative ease. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame and can unload on baseballs to send them incredible distances. While there is some swing and miss in his game, it's not enough to where scouts are worried if he'll hit. It'll take some adjustment, as Hawaiian players often don't face the toughest competition back home, but he should tap his power regularly enough to be productive. His swing could be cleaned up a bit, as he tends to lean into pitches and get out on his front foot, so he'll need to learn to keep his weight back a bit. Good news is that he's fairly young for the class and won't turn 18 until after the draft, so he has that much more time to make adjustments.
Rosario is a bit of a sleeper with very high upside as a 30 or 40 home run guy, albeit one that's likely limited to left field. There is considerable bust risk because he needs so much refinement, but he could provide great value starting around the third round. If he gets to Cal Baptist, he'd be one of the best recruits they've ever landed, and he could significantly elevate his stock by hitting for three years there. He could be a cheaper alternative to a similar hitter, Blaze Jordan.
Highlight reel from fall event
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/2/2002. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: California Baptist.
Hawaii has given us players like Kolten Wong, Kurt Suzuki, and Kirby Yates, but only after they want off to college. Every year, there tends to be a couple of prospects here and there, but otherwise the islands are not a major exporter of baseball talent. In 2020, yet another "K" first name is set to try to break through in outfielder Kala'i Rosario, the top Hawaiian in the class. Armed with some of the best power in the high school class, he could be drafted high enough this year to forego a commitment to California Baptist.
Rosario can hit the ball a mile with relative ease. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame and can unload on baseballs to send them incredible distances. While there is some swing and miss in his game, it's not enough to where scouts are worried if he'll hit. It'll take some adjustment, as Hawaiian players often don't face the toughest competition back home, but he should tap his power regularly enough to be productive. His swing could be cleaned up a bit, as he tends to lean into pitches and get out on his front foot, so he'll need to learn to keep his weight back a bit. Good news is that he's fairly young for the class and won't turn 18 until after the draft, so he has that much more time to make adjustments.
Rosario is a bit of a sleeper with very high upside as a 30 or 40 home run guy, albeit one that's likely limited to left field. There is considerable bust risk because he needs so much refinement, but he could provide great value starting around the third round. If he gets to Cal Baptist, he'd be one of the best recruits they've ever landed, and he could significantly elevate his stock by hitting for three years there. He could be a cheaper alternative to a similar hitter, Blaze Jordan.
Highlight reel from fall event
2020 Draft profile: Blaze Jordan
1B Blaze Jordan, DeSoto Central HS [MS]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/19/2002. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Mississippi State.
If you've ever gone down a YouTube rabbit hole watching baseball videos, you've probably come across a tabloid-looking video claiming some 15 year old Is The Next BRYCE HARPER. While Jordan isn't quite that good, the video wasn't entirely an exaggeration, as he's a legitimate draft prospect with some of the best raw power in the class. Originally a member of the class of 2021, he reclassified up to the class of 2020 to be eligible this year, making him the youngest player with top 100 hopes in this draft (he won't turn 18 until December). An up and down summer makes him a relatively divisive prospect, but he remains a strong one.
As you can probably tell from all of his YouTube videos, Jordan's carrying tool is his plus to potentially plus-plus raw power. He can knock the ball just about as far as anyone in the class, having done so at showcases around the country and having won numerous national home run derbies. He hits it hard, too, posting exit velocities north of 100 on a regular basis. Not just a free swinger, though, having long shown the ability to handle older pitching to an extent. However, he slumped at times over the summer facing pitchers who could be upwards of a year and a half older than him. He's currently a third baseman working hard to stay there, but unless he significantly improves his range and adds some arm strength, he's more than likely ticketed for first base. That puts a lot of pressure on his bat to perform and it could push him to college.
Jordan also has a relatively choppy swing without a ton of loft, and smoothing him out could help him tap even more power. In a sense, he's a litmus test on how teams view age. He didn't hit particularly well over the summer, but he was a rising junior going up against mostly rising seniors, and we could all reasonably expect that he would perform a lot better a year later.
The ceiling/floor split is pretty big here. He could hit 40 home runs a year, or he could flame out in the minor leagues. That discrepancy, which is made wider because he's just so young, probably gives him a better chance of making it to Mississippi State. If he hits well there, he could be an extremely attractive prospect in 2023 who not only has an SEC track record, but who is the age of a college sophomore. As for 2020, he could go as high as the second round to a team who buys into the power and youth, though his risk/reward profile probably fits better in the third or fourth round, at which point he might just head to Starkville.
Batting practice and game action over the summer
2018 video that made him famous
Jaw dropping home runs from 2016 (he was 13 years old)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 12/19/2002. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Mississippi State.
If you've ever gone down a YouTube rabbit hole watching baseball videos, you've probably come across a tabloid-looking video claiming some 15 year old Is The Next BRYCE HARPER. While Jordan isn't quite that good, the video wasn't entirely an exaggeration, as he's a legitimate draft prospect with some of the best raw power in the class. Originally a member of the class of 2021, he reclassified up to the class of 2020 to be eligible this year, making him the youngest player with top 100 hopes in this draft (he won't turn 18 until December). An up and down summer makes him a relatively divisive prospect, but he remains a strong one.
As you can probably tell from all of his YouTube videos, Jordan's carrying tool is his plus to potentially plus-plus raw power. He can knock the ball just about as far as anyone in the class, having done so at showcases around the country and having won numerous national home run derbies. He hits it hard, too, posting exit velocities north of 100 on a regular basis. Not just a free swinger, though, having long shown the ability to handle older pitching to an extent. However, he slumped at times over the summer facing pitchers who could be upwards of a year and a half older than him. He's currently a third baseman working hard to stay there, but unless he significantly improves his range and adds some arm strength, he's more than likely ticketed for first base. That puts a lot of pressure on his bat to perform and it could push him to college.
Jordan also has a relatively choppy swing without a ton of loft, and smoothing him out could help him tap even more power. In a sense, he's a litmus test on how teams view age. He didn't hit particularly well over the summer, but he was a rising junior going up against mostly rising seniors, and we could all reasonably expect that he would perform a lot better a year later.
The ceiling/floor split is pretty big here. He could hit 40 home runs a year, or he could flame out in the minor leagues. That discrepancy, which is made wider because he's just so young, probably gives him a better chance of making it to Mississippi State. If he hits well there, he could be an extremely attractive prospect in 2023 who not only has an SEC track record, but who is the age of a college sophomore. As for 2020, he could go as high as the second round to a team who buys into the power and youth, though his risk/reward profile probably fits better in the third or fourth round, at which point he might just head to Starkville.
Batting practice and game action over the summer
2018 video that made him famous
Jaw dropping home runs from 2016 (he was 13 years old)
Tuesday, June 2, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Zach McCambley
RHP Zach McCambley, Coastal Carolina
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/4/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 25 IP.
Zach McCambley is an interesting prospect from a smaller program, albeit one that won a National Championship in 2016. He flashed good stuff for the Chanticleers, but he was inconsistent and held a 4.34 ERA over his first two seasons against just decent competition. However, he started to rise up boards when he posted a 1.74 ERA and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio across 20.2 innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, then kept on rolling with a 1.80 ERA and a 32/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings in the shortened 2020 season. Though reliever questions abound, he could be the first Chanticleer drafted in the top 100 picks since Jacob May went 91st overall to the White Sox in 2013.
McCambley is known for his fastball/curveball combination. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and gets good riding action up in the zone, while the curveball is his true strikeout pitch. It has sharp, deep, two-plane break, and he's done a better job locating it and using it to finish off strikeouts. It's a true plus pitch that will play up in pro ball and the majors, and it enabled him to get off to that strong start in 2020. However, McCambley doesn't have much of a changeup, and his command is just decent. The command could use some refining, but the changeup is likely the make or break as to whether he can cut it as a starting pitcher in pro ball.
Scouts will have to weight the fastball/changeup combination, 6'1" frame, and strong start to the 2020 season against the command and mediocre changeup. There is plenty of upside for McCambley as a potential impact starter, while there is a very good chance he ends up as a reliever. The good news is that even as a reliever, with that curve, he should be pretty effective at minimum. He probably fits somewhere in the third to fifth rounds.
Pitching in high school (I swear I saw a great, recent video on Twitter, but I haven't been able to find it)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/4/1999.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 1.80 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32/7 K/BB in 25 IP.
Zach McCambley is an interesting prospect from a smaller program, albeit one that won a National Championship in 2016. He flashed good stuff for the Chanticleers, but he was inconsistent and held a 4.34 ERA over his first two seasons against just decent competition. However, he started to rise up boards when he posted a 1.74 ERA and a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio across 20.2 innings in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, then kept on rolling with a 1.80 ERA and a 32/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings in the shortened 2020 season. Though reliever questions abound, he could be the first Chanticleer drafted in the top 100 picks since Jacob May went 91st overall to the White Sox in 2013.
McCambley is known for his fastball/curveball combination. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and gets good riding action up in the zone, while the curveball is his true strikeout pitch. It has sharp, deep, two-plane break, and he's done a better job locating it and using it to finish off strikeouts. It's a true plus pitch that will play up in pro ball and the majors, and it enabled him to get off to that strong start in 2020. However, McCambley doesn't have much of a changeup, and his command is just decent. The command could use some refining, but the changeup is likely the make or break as to whether he can cut it as a starting pitcher in pro ball.
Scouts will have to weight the fastball/changeup combination, 6'1" frame, and strong start to the 2020 season against the command and mediocre changeup. There is plenty of upside for McCambley as a potential impact starter, while there is a very good chance he ends up as a reliever. The good news is that even as a reliever, with that curve, he should be pretty effective at minimum. He probably fits somewhere in the third to fifth rounds.
Pitching in high school (I swear I saw a great, recent video on Twitter, but I haven't been able to find it)
Sunday, May 31, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: OF Zach DeLoach
OF Zach DeLoach, Texas A&M
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/18/1998. B/T: L/R.
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .421/.547/.789, 6 SB, 3/14 K/BB in 18 games.
Over the past calendar year, very few prospects have improved their stock as much as Zach DeLoach. Over his first two seasons in College Station, he hit just .236/.338/.338 with five home runs over 117 games, showing very good plate discipline (62/58 K/BB) but not much else. He earned a trip to the elite Cape Cod League over the summer and looked like a completely different hitter; in 43 games, which is no small sample size, he slashed .368/.434/.529 with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 30/15 strikeout to walk ratio, putting himself very much on the scouting map for 2020. Under the newly-brightened spotlight, DeLoach continued to perform, demolishing Texas A&M's weaker non-conference schedule to the tune of a .421/.547/.789 line, six home runs, six stolen bases, and a ridiculous 3/14 strikeout to walk ratio across 18 games. He was at his best over his first six games, where he hit .706/.739/1.529 with four home runs.
DeLoach has always had good pitch selection, but his relatively long, deliberate swing made it difficult for him to make much of those pitches. Over the past year or so, he has tightened up his left handed swing and has been much, much, much better at doing damage on the pitches he very capably selects. Not only did he cut his strikeout rate to a minuscule 3.9% in 2020 (and a still-solid 17.1% on the Cape), but he hit for real impact while doing so, showing real, above average power with both metal and wood bats. Defensively, DeLoach is solid if unspectacular in the outfield, showing good speed that he may or may not be able to maintain and an overall corner outfield profile.
If DeLoach had continued over the rest of the season to hit anywhere close to how he hit over the first four weeks, we could be talking about his name as high as the first round. So unfortunately, with much less of a track record than other bat-first college outfielders like Heston Kjerstad and Daniel Cabrera, he won't get that high. The Cape performance is real – you can't hit .369 with power over 43 games by accident there. The 2020 performance looked real – hitting .421 with power while striking out just three times in 18 games is extremely impressive – but he was facing a weaker schedule full of weekend series against Miami of Ohio, Army, and New Mexico State. He got just seven at bats against power five teams (Illinois, UCLA, Okla. State) and went hitless. You can't blame him for that part, but he has long been described as a streaky hitter and that would have been put to the test against an SEC slate of pitching.
Because we didn't get to see him in the SEC, whether you think DeLoach is a legitimate impact bat or more of a role player depends on whether you buy into the mechanical adjustments he's made. There's no doubt that the swing is quicker and cleaner. If you think that will be enough to continue to hit at a high level in pro ball and up to the majors, you could see him hitting 20-30 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and take a crack at him in the second round. If you remain worried about the streakiness or see other things, like average bat speed and a little bit of rigidness in the swing, you might see him more as a fourth outfielder or fringe-regular, feeling more comfortable in the third or fourth round. I think he'll continue to hit in pro ball and settle in as a productive regular, one who will pop for some very good years while looking more average in others.
2020 highlights
Compared to his 2018 swing
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/18/1998. B/T: L/R.
2020 Stats: 6 HR, .421/.547/.789, 6 SB, 3/14 K/BB in 18 games.
Over the past calendar year, very few prospects have improved their stock as much as Zach DeLoach. Over his first two seasons in College Station, he hit just .236/.338/.338 with five home runs over 117 games, showing very good plate discipline (62/58 K/BB) but not much else. He earned a trip to the elite Cape Cod League over the summer and looked like a completely different hitter; in 43 games, which is no small sample size, he slashed .368/.434/.529 with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 30/15 strikeout to walk ratio, putting himself very much on the scouting map for 2020. Under the newly-brightened spotlight, DeLoach continued to perform, demolishing Texas A&M's weaker non-conference schedule to the tune of a .421/.547/.789 line, six home runs, six stolen bases, and a ridiculous 3/14 strikeout to walk ratio across 18 games. He was at his best over his first six games, where he hit .706/.739/1.529 with four home runs.
DeLoach has always had good pitch selection, but his relatively long, deliberate swing made it difficult for him to make much of those pitches. Over the past year or so, he has tightened up his left handed swing and has been much, much, much better at doing damage on the pitches he very capably selects. Not only did he cut his strikeout rate to a minuscule 3.9% in 2020 (and a still-solid 17.1% on the Cape), but he hit for real impact while doing so, showing real, above average power with both metal and wood bats. Defensively, DeLoach is solid if unspectacular in the outfield, showing good speed that he may or may not be able to maintain and an overall corner outfield profile.
If DeLoach had continued over the rest of the season to hit anywhere close to how he hit over the first four weeks, we could be talking about his name as high as the first round. So unfortunately, with much less of a track record than other bat-first college outfielders like Heston Kjerstad and Daniel Cabrera, he won't get that high. The Cape performance is real – you can't hit .369 with power over 43 games by accident there. The 2020 performance looked real – hitting .421 with power while striking out just three times in 18 games is extremely impressive – but he was facing a weaker schedule full of weekend series against Miami of Ohio, Army, and New Mexico State. He got just seven at bats against power five teams (Illinois, UCLA, Okla. State) and went hitless. You can't blame him for that part, but he has long been described as a streaky hitter and that would have been put to the test against an SEC slate of pitching.
Because we didn't get to see him in the SEC, whether you think DeLoach is a legitimate impact bat or more of a role player depends on whether you buy into the mechanical adjustments he's made. There's no doubt that the swing is quicker and cleaner. If you think that will be enough to continue to hit at a high level in pro ball and up to the majors, you could see him hitting 20-30 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and take a crack at him in the second round. If you remain worried about the streakiness or see other things, like average bat speed and a little bit of rigidness in the swing, you might see him more as a fourth outfielder or fringe-regular, feeling more comfortable in the third or fourth round. I think he'll continue to hit in pro ball and settle in as a productive regular, one who will pop for some very good years while looking more average in others.
2020 highlights
Compared to his 2018 swing
2020 Draft Profile: Jake Eder
LHP Jake Eder, Vanderbilt
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 27/9 K/BB in 20 IP.
Jake Eder has been a well-known name for a while now, one that scouts have been waiting to see put it together for a while now. He was considered a second round talent out of high school in South Florida back in 2017 and ranked 59th in my draft rankings that year, and not much has changed about his profile since. After an up and down freshman season, he put together a 2.97 ERA and a 41/16 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2019, then found similar success in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer (2.29 ERA, 24/6 K/BB). He was a full time starter in 2020, but the results were just decent; he allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his four starts and finished with a 3.60 ERA and a 27/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 20 innings.
Eder is a 6'4" lefty with velocity and a good breaking ball – already, that's enough to get scouts interested. However, literally everything is inconsistent. At his best, his fastball can scrape the upper 90's while sitting in the mid 90's, though there are days where he dips below 90 and tops out around 92. The curveball looks like a legitimate plus pitch at times, combining power, depth, and angle into a devastating strikeout pitch at its best. However, it tends to flatten out at times and can be especially vulnerable to hard contact when he hangs it. His changeup is also behind that of most draftable college starters, but that's more due to a lack of usage than a lack of feel.
His command is similarly inconsistent to his fastball and curveball. At his best, he can look average in that regard and that helped him have success on the Cape, but there are days where he loses the zone and hangs pitches up to get crushed. He sometimes struggles to keep his long arms in check and repeat his delivery. The tools for success are absolutely there, because at his best, he looks like a first round arm with mid 90's velocity, a plus curve, and decent command from the left side. But I am a bit concerned by the fact that Vanderbilt, which is among the best in the country at developing pitchers, hasn't been able to clean him up.
College lefties tend to do well on draft day, especially when they can hit 97 and drop in a wicked curve. Though Vanderbilt hasn't quite been able to help him pull everything together on a consistent basis, pro coaching could unlock that and get first round value outside of the first round. If he does find a way to perform at his peak more often than not, as well as develop a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. If not, the fastball/curveball combination will fit well in the bullpen. He probably comes off the board somewhere in the second to third round range.
2020 start vs Southern California (home plate view)
2020 start vs Illinois-Chicago (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/9/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 27/9 K/BB in 20 IP.
Jake Eder has been a well-known name for a while now, one that scouts have been waiting to see put it together for a while now. He was considered a second round talent out of high school in South Florida back in 2017 and ranked 59th in my draft rankings that year, and not much has changed about his profile since. After an up and down freshman season, he put together a 2.97 ERA and a 41/16 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2019, then found similar success in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer (2.29 ERA, 24/6 K/BB). He was a full time starter in 2020, but the results were just decent; he allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his four starts and finished with a 3.60 ERA and a 27/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 20 innings.
Eder is a 6'4" lefty with velocity and a good breaking ball – already, that's enough to get scouts interested. However, literally everything is inconsistent. At his best, his fastball can scrape the upper 90's while sitting in the mid 90's, though there are days where he dips below 90 and tops out around 92. The curveball looks like a legitimate plus pitch at times, combining power, depth, and angle into a devastating strikeout pitch at its best. However, it tends to flatten out at times and can be especially vulnerable to hard contact when he hangs it. His changeup is also behind that of most draftable college starters, but that's more due to a lack of usage than a lack of feel.
His command is similarly inconsistent to his fastball and curveball. At his best, he can look average in that regard and that helped him have success on the Cape, but there are days where he loses the zone and hangs pitches up to get crushed. He sometimes struggles to keep his long arms in check and repeat his delivery. The tools for success are absolutely there, because at his best, he looks like a first round arm with mid 90's velocity, a plus curve, and decent command from the left side. But I am a bit concerned by the fact that Vanderbilt, which is among the best in the country at developing pitchers, hasn't been able to clean him up.
College lefties tend to do well on draft day, especially when they can hit 97 and drop in a wicked curve. Though Vanderbilt hasn't quite been able to help him pull everything together on a consistent basis, pro coaching could unlock that and get first round value outside of the first round. If he does find a way to perform at his peak more often than not, as well as develop a changeup, he could be a mid-rotation starter. If not, the fastball/curveball combination will fit well in the bullpen. He probably comes off the board somewhere in the second to third round range.
2020 start vs Southern California (home plate view)
2020 start vs Illinois-Chicago (CF view)
Saturday, May 30, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Burl Carraway
LHP Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/27/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17/6 K/BB in 9.1 IP.
Burl Carraway's rise to stardom has been pretty abrupt. He was lightly recruited out of high school in College Station, just down the road from Texas A&M, and got blown up in his only two appearances as a freshman. But he came back a completely different pitcher in 2019 and put up a 2.81 ERA and a 72/22 strikeout to walk ratio across 41.2 innings, setting himself up to be one of the top relievers in the class come 2020. He's only helped his case this year, allowing one earned run in 9.1 innings while striking out 17 of the 37 batters he's faced. Carraway has a little bit of competition from Virginia's Andrew Abbott, UCLA's Holden Powell, and Vanderbilt's Tyler Brown, but for the most part, he's considered the top relief pitcher in the 2020 draft.
On the smaller side at six feet tall, Carraway has one of the more recognizable deliveries in college baseball, quickly rocking back then exploding forward with everything he has. That makes him a clear reliever, but it also makes his pitches play up. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's while regularly touching the upper 90's, and its riding action makes it just as hard to square up as it is to catch up to. He also adds a power curveball that's one of the best in the class, coming in with serious biting action and a little bit of lateral movement in addition to its hard vertical drop. He doesn't really use a changeup, and as a college reliever who will do the same job in the pros, he doesn't necessarily need one.
On the downside, Carraway doesn't have much of a track record of spotting his pitches. He's walked 31 in 51.1 innings during his career at Dallas Baptist, a number that would likely be higher if hitters weren't constantly chasing his explosive stuff. The command problems likely stem from his uptempo delivery, but the good news is that they're not so serious that it takes away from the overall product. The track record of college relievers also isn't great. Tyler Jay (6th overall, 2015), Zack Burdi (26th, 2016), and Durbin Feltman (100th, 2018) have largely disappointed so far, while Ben Bowden (45th, 2016) hasn't made it to the majors yet but seems like the only early-round draft pick of the last few seasons to maintain his prospect stock in pro ball. And it makes sense that the track record would be spotty, because starting pitchers often see a big uptick in their stuff when converting to relief and most of these relievers have already seen that uptick before they even get to pro ball – they are who they are.
Because the track record of college relievers is so spotty, many teams might shy away from taking Carraway with an early pick. But despite the command questions, he has a lot going for him. His fastball/curveball combination is among the best in college baseball, two easy plus pitches from the left side that he can use to put away hitters at will. He's also an elite competitor that will go right after hitters, giving him plenty of intangibles that will undoubtedly help him as he climbs the ladder. The ceiling is that of a big league closer, though if he doesn't iron out his command a little bit, there's a good chance he ends up as a seventh or eighth inning guy. Because he could be a very quick mover through the minors, he has a good shot at going earlier in the draft, perhaps somewhere in the second round.
Pitching for Team USA over the summer
Various games from 2019 and 2020
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 5/27/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17/6 K/BB in 9.1 IP.
Burl Carraway's rise to stardom has been pretty abrupt. He was lightly recruited out of high school in College Station, just down the road from Texas A&M, and got blown up in his only two appearances as a freshman. But he came back a completely different pitcher in 2019 and put up a 2.81 ERA and a 72/22 strikeout to walk ratio across 41.2 innings, setting himself up to be one of the top relievers in the class come 2020. He's only helped his case this year, allowing one earned run in 9.1 innings while striking out 17 of the 37 batters he's faced. Carraway has a little bit of competition from Virginia's Andrew Abbott, UCLA's Holden Powell, and Vanderbilt's Tyler Brown, but for the most part, he's considered the top relief pitcher in the 2020 draft.
On the smaller side at six feet tall, Carraway has one of the more recognizable deliveries in college baseball, quickly rocking back then exploding forward with everything he has. That makes him a clear reliever, but it also makes his pitches play up. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's while regularly touching the upper 90's, and its riding action makes it just as hard to square up as it is to catch up to. He also adds a power curveball that's one of the best in the class, coming in with serious biting action and a little bit of lateral movement in addition to its hard vertical drop. He doesn't really use a changeup, and as a college reliever who will do the same job in the pros, he doesn't necessarily need one.
On the downside, Carraway doesn't have much of a track record of spotting his pitches. He's walked 31 in 51.1 innings during his career at Dallas Baptist, a number that would likely be higher if hitters weren't constantly chasing his explosive stuff. The command problems likely stem from his uptempo delivery, but the good news is that they're not so serious that it takes away from the overall product. The track record of college relievers also isn't great. Tyler Jay (6th overall, 2015), Zack Burdi (26th, 2016), and Durbin Feltman (100th, 2018) have largely disappointed so far, while Ben Bowden (45th, 2016) hasn't made it to the majors yet but seems like the only early-round draft pick of the last few seasons to maintain his prospect stock in pro ball. And it makes sense that the track record would be spotty, because starting pitchers often see a big uptick in their stuff when converting to relief and most of these relievers have already seen that uptick before they even get to pro ball – they are who they are.
Because the track record of college relievers is so spotty, many teams might shy away from taking Carraway with an early pick. But despite the command questions, he has a lot going for him. His fastball/curveball combination is among the best in college baseball, two easy plus pitches from the left side that he can use to put away hitters at will. He's also an elite competitor that will go right after hitters, giving him plenty of intangibles that will undoubtedly help him as he climbs the ladder. The ceiling is that of a big league closer, though if he doesn't iron out his command a little bit, there's a good chance he ends up as a seventh or eighth inning guy. Because he could be a very quick mover through the minors, he has a good shot at going earlier in the draft, perhaps somewhere in the second round.
Pitching for Team USA over the summer
Various games from 2019 and 2020
Friday, May 29, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Drew Bowser
3B Drew Bowser, Harvard-Westlake HS [CA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/2/2001. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Stanford.
The Harvard-Westlake School, on the northern edge of the Hollywood Hills, at one point had future MLB starters Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in their starting rotation all at once. The team was similarly stacked in 2020, with two potential top 100 picks in the middle of its lineup: center fielder and likely first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong and shortstop Drew Bowser. While Crow-Armstrong is the better prospect and easily the more famous name, Bowser has more power than his teammate and has generated plenty of draft buzz in his own right.
Bowser's standout tool is his plus raw power, as he generates a ton of torque with his 6'3" frame. It plays extremely well in batting practice, and while he hasn't always tapped it consistently in games, he has been trending in the right direction in that area. That is due to progress he has made mechanically, as he has begun to do a better job of staying within himself as a hitter and learning to trust his power rather than sell out. As for his hit tool, it has improved due to the aforementioned changes, and scouts have praised his baseball IQ and how it gives him solid pitch recognition skills. He has a track record of struggling with harder fastballs, but he has been making progress on that front. Bowser is a shortstop in high school, but his strong arm and fringy range point him more towards third base, where he could be above average.
Bowser's track record is relatively spotty against advanced pitching, and maintaining his positive trajectory over a full season could have really helped him. Instead, scouts will have to buy into what he showed before the shutdown and hope it will continue in pro ball if they want to sign him away from a Stanford commitment. He figures to be a second or third round talent, though signability will cloud that for sure and there is a very good chance he ends up in Palo Alto. As for ceiling, he could be a 30 home run bat with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third, but there is a fair amount of risk to assume.
Batting practice over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 10/2/2001. B/T: R/R.
Commitment: Stanford.
The Harvard-Westlake School, on the northern edge of the Hollywood Hills, at one point had future MLB starters Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in their starting rotation all at once. The team was similarly stacked in 2020, with two potential top 100 picks in the middle of its lineup: center fielder and likely first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong and shortstop Drew Bowser. While Crow-Armstrong is the better prospect and easily the more famous name, Bowser has more power than his teammate and has generated plenty of draft buzz in his own right.
Bowser's standout tool is his plus raw power, as he generates a ton of torque with his 6'3" frame. It plays extremely well in batting practice, and while he hasn't always tapped it consistently in games, he has been trending in the right direction in that area. That is due to progress he has made mechanically, as he has begun to do a better job of staying within himself as a hitter and learning to trust his power rather than sell out. As for his hit tool, it has improved due to the aforementioned changes, and scouts have praised his baseball IQ and how it gives him solid pitch recognition skills. He has a track record of struggling with harder fastballs, but he has been making progress on that front. Bowser is a shortstop in high school, but his strong arm and fringy range point him more towards third base, where he could be above average.
Bowser's track record is relatively spotty against advanced pitching, and maintaining his positive trajectory over a full season could have really helped him. Instead, scouts will have to buy into what he showed before the shutdown and hope it will continue in pro ball if they want to sign him away from a Stanford commitment. He figures to be a second or third round talent, though signability will cloud that for sure and there is a very good chance he ends up in Palo Alto. As for ceiling, he could be a 30 home run bat with decent on-base percentages and good defense at third, but there is a fair amount of risk to assume.
Batting practice over the summer
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