1-23: SS Carson Tucker, Mountain Pointe HS (AZ)
CBA-36: RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn
2-56: LHP Logan Allen, Florida International
3-95: OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS (CA)
4-124: SS Milan Tolentino, Santa Margarita HS (CA)
5-154: RHP Mason Hickman, Vanderbilt
The Indians have a brand and as usual, they stuck to it. They value youth, and in turn they picked up three high school bats, one of which (Petey Halpin) only turned 18 in May. They also like hit tools and guys who can stay up the middle, and their three high schoolers certainly have those traits as some of the better pure hitters in the class projected for SS, CF, and SS. They usually go the college route to find their arms, valuing track record on that side, and it's hard to find a much better combined track record than Tanner Burns (14-9, 2.86 career), Logan Allen (3.33 career), and Mason Hickman (11-0, 1.79 over last two seasons). Overall, I think they did pretty well with their six selections, with no picks popping out to me as total steals but all of them looking anywhere from solid to very good.
Full index of team profiles here
1-23: SS Carson Tucker, Mountain Pointe HS, AZ (my rank: 55)
The younger brother of Pirates infielder Cole Tucker, Carson has been a rising name all spring. He showed good feel for the game and sprayed around a lot of line drives last summer on the showcase circuit, but he lacked the physicality most teams were looking for and most in the industry wanted to see him head to Texas and get stronger. Well, that happened over the winter, and he came out in the spring bigger, faster, and stronger. The skinny 5'11" kid from Phoenix is now a 6'2" athlete, and this spring he was driving baseballs with much more authority around the field. Instead of line drive singles to all fields, scouts saw deep drives that turned into doubles, triples, and even home runs, and there is no reason to think he can't keep getting better. He has a good head on his shoulders as a kid with great feel for the game, and he plays a very solid shortstop. He likely won't be a Gold Glover out there, but he shows the instincts and athleticism to consistently make plays. 23 might have been a bit of a surprise for some people, but the Indians clearly buy into the trajectory and like where he's going. He projects for average power, perhaps 15-20 home runs per season, with good on-base percentages. If he does stick at shortstop, that's a very favorable offensive outlook, and he might be able to add more power and poke up above 20 home runs more often than not. Slot value is $2.93 million, and it remains to be seen how much it takes to buy him out of his Texas commitment. If he gets to Cleveland while his brother is still in Pittsburgh, the two cities are just two hours apart on Interstate 76. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-36: RHP Tanner Burns, Auburn (my rank: 27)
Pitchers are unpredictable creatures, but sometimes, they develop exactly as expected. Burns found himself in the middle of top 50 conversation as a polished arm coming out of high school in Decatur, Alabama in 2017, but a firm commitment to Auburn meant he fell in the draft and didn't sign. He has performed since the day he stepped on campus, with the polish he showed as a high schooler coming in handy in college, putting together one of the most consistent track records of any 2020 arm. In three years for the Tigers, Burns is 14-9 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 210/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 188.2 innings, and he's gotten better and better each year (ERA dropped from 3.01 to 2.82 to 2.42). Though he's on the smaller side at six feet tall, he's dominated the SEC with a power fastball in the low to mid 90's and a power curve that he can locate to both sides of the plate. The curve can be inconsistent and can get slurvy at times, earning more 55 grades than 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but it's a true 60 at its best. There's a changeup as well, but he hasn't needed it as much and it needs further refinement. Burns' strike throwing ability and strong lower half portend to an innings eating profile even if he is a bit shorter and stockier, and he has the one-two punch in that fastball and curveball to be more than just a #4/#5 starter. That seems to be his floor, with a ceiling as a #3 starter or, if we're really lucky, even a #2. The track record and stuff gives him a great combination of floor and ceiling outside the first round, and Cleveland is a great fit as an organization. Slot value is $2.05 million, which seems reasonable to me. Pre-draft profile here.
2-56: LHP Logan Allen, Florida International (my rank: 51)
The Indians already have a fastball/changeup lefty from Florida named Logan Allen, so why not make it two? This new Logan Allen, much like previous pick Tanner Burns, was a well-known prospect in the 2017 draft that headed to school instead of sign. Also like Burns, he's performed from day one. Through three years at FIU, he has a 3.33 ERA and a 246/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 183.2 innings, like Burns getting better and better each year (ERA dropped from 3.89 to 3.11 to 2.45). He also dominated in the elite Cape Cod League, where he struck out 24 and walked just three over 15 shutout innings. This sustained dominance has come despite not having the world's loudest stuff, as he sits just 91-92 with his fastball. His curveball has big, two plane break, but it can get loopy and lacks the hard, late bite that you'd like to see in a pitch like that. His best pitch is a plus changeup that disappears at the last second, one which he tunnels extremely well off his fastball to miss bats consistently. Allen is a plus strike thrower who locates his three pitches very well, and his ability to attack the zone makes everything play up consistently. At first glance, his stuff might look a little light for pro ball, but his sustained dominance (including the Cape Cod League) leads me to think you really shouldn't bet against him. Especially in this Indians system, that loves polished arms, he could do really well with a #3 starter ceiling. Slot value is $1.28 million. Pre-draft profile here.
3-95: OF Petey Halpin, Mira Costa HS, CA (my rank: 80)
On brand, yet again. Petey Halpin grew up in the Silicon Valley area, but moved down to the Los Angeles area for his senior year of high school. He's a hit over power outfielder with some projection and a lot of positive trajectory, one who should thrive in this system. A lean kid at six feet tall, he has a very fluid swing from the left side with nice whip and leverage, and he uses it to make consistent hard contact with some sneaky power. Depending on how much he bulks up as he grows into his frame, he could get to above average power eventually, but that could come at the expense of his above average to plus speed. Right now, he uses his good speed well and could be an above average defender in center field, but if he slows down at all, he might be more of an average defender down the road. Regardless, the hit tool plays and he should get to at least double digit home run power, so it might just be a matter of which direction the Indians want to develop him in – speedy center field type, or all-around impact hitter that slows down to about average speed as he develops. Regardless, it's a fun, broad set of skills to project on, and since he didn't turn 18 until May, he's relatively young for the class. Slot value is $610,800, though I imagine it might take a little bit more to woo him away from a Texas commitment. Pre-draft profile here.
4-124: SS Milan Tolentino, Santa Margarita HS, CA (my rank: 116)
For their next pick, the Indians went back to the Southern California high school ranks, picking Milan Tolentino out of high school in Orange County. The son of ex-major leaguer and current Angels broadcaster Jose Tolentino, Milan is yet another hit over power kid. He makes very consistent contact from the left side of the plate, peppering the ball around the field with great feel for finding the barrel. However, he has very limited present power and doesn't project to add a ton, using more of a slap-heavy approach than really trying to drive the ball with authority. That works for some hitters, though with Tolentino possessing just average speed, the Indians need to be confident he can not only just make consistent contact, but find the barrel consistently. Regardless, they're buying the defense here, as Tolentino projects to be an above average shortstop due to his plus instincts and feel for the game. That helps him make up for his lack of true foot speed, and the feel for the game should also help him start to hit for more impact as he gets stronger. It's probably a utility infield profile, but with some moderate upside here in the fourth round. Slot value is $460,000, but as with Halpin, it might take a little more to sign him away from a UCLA commitment.
5-154: RHP Mason Hickman, Vanderbilt (unranked)
The Indians finished off with another polished college arm, with Hickman bringing a great track record despite a lack of loud stuff. Since the start of the 2019 season, Hickman is 11-0 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 155/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings – exceptional numbers with a team that faces a very tough SEC schedule. However, the numbers are slightly less impressive upon further inspection, as Hickman actually served as the team's Tuesday starter in 2019, meaning in that span, he pitched a grand total of...four innings in actual SEC play. Still, the profile is interesting in and of itself. He's a huge, 6'6" right hander who grew up in the Nashville area, coming in with an upper 80's fastball that occasionally creeps above 90, a curve with good depth, a slider, and a changeup. None of his offerings are much better than average, and none will function as an out pitch in pro ball. The good news is that he possesses some of the best command in the 2020 class, spotting his pitches consistently to all four quadrants of the zone and keeping hitters off balance more often than not. He'll need to lean on that ability to mix and locate pitches in pro ball, because any mistakes could prove very costly given how light his stuff is. While he doesn't project to add a ton of velocity, the Indians do really well with these polished college arms, and just a little added crispness to his stuff could make him a steal at the back of the draft. If he doesn't take that step forward, though, I'm very worried about his ability to keep pro hitters fooled consistently enough. Slot value is $343,400, and I could imagine him taking a slight discount.
Undrafted: C Joe Donovan, Michigan (unranked)
After the Tigers drafted Ohio State catcher and Massillon native Dillon Dingler to open the second round, the Indians hit back by signing the catcher from That Team Up North in the undrafted free agent market. Joe Donovan, a native of the Chicago area, was one of the better defensive catchers in college baseball, holding down the starting spot on the Michigan team that made it to the College World Series in 2019. Unfortunately, for all the praise he gets behind the plate, he hasn't hit much, with just a .228/.316/.388 line, ten home runs, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games with the Wolverines. He's shown flashes of offensive impact at times, including a nice Cape performance two summers ago and nine home runs as a sophomore in 2019, but ultimately he's made too much weak contact and loses the strike zone just enough to where he doesn't profile as much more than a backup catcher. Still, that defense made him a prime target in the UDFA market, and at $20,000 the Indians got themselves a real bargain.
Other undrafted signings:
LHP Jaime Arias, Fresno State: 2-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB in 24 IP
RHP Cade Smith, Hawaii: 1-0, 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 18.1 IP
SS Alonzo Richardson, Helix HS, CA (signed away from San Diego State commitment)
Showing posts with label Logan Allen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Logan Allen. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
Friday, May 8, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Logan Allen
LHP Logan Allen, Florida International
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 41/6 K/BB in 25.2 IP
FIU's Logan Allen actually draws a lot of parallels to the Indians' Logan Allen, who is a different person despite also being a left handed pitcher from Florida in his early 20's with a great changeup but without overpowering fastball velocity. This Logan Allen, despite not throwing all that hard, has gotten better and better during his time in Miami. After a strong freshman season, Allen really put himself on the map in 2019, when he posted a 3.11 ERA and a 120/25 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, then dominated the elite Cape Cod League with 15 shutout innings of work (plus two unearned runs), striking out 24 and walking just three. He was as good as ever in his four start 2020 season, putting up a 2.45 ERA and a wicked 41/6 strikeout to walk ratio, including a fantastic start against George Mason on February 21st in which he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and thirteen strikeouts. With that, he finds himself among the top five college lefties in the draft, which is always a heavily sought-after demographic.
Allen is a pitcher through and through. He's not going to overpower you with big stuff, but he'll locate and mix pitches to keep you off balance. His arsenal starts with a fastball around 90, but it plays up not only due to command but due to some nice late finish down in the zone and some riding life up in the zone. His curveball has big, two-plane break that enables him to run it diagonally across the zone or bring it back onto the corner, though it plays closer to average because it lacks that tight, late bite. Lastly, his best pitch is his changeup, as he tunnels it well with his fastball and it just seems to fall off to the side at the last second. Of course, everything plays up due to his above average command, an he knows how to control the strike zone and dictate at bats to keep hitters on his terms, not the other way around.
The ceiling here is pretty limited, but the floor is high. He's not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, and he doesn't figure to add much velocity going forward. The fastball might creep more consistently into the low 90's, but that's probably about it. He'll always have a relatively small margin for error in that velocity band, but he's more than capable of staying within it with room to spare. It's probably a #3 starter ceiling with a more realistic #4/#5 outlook, but he's had such consistent success even against advanced hitters that it's hard to bet against him. Due to the depth of college pitching in this draft, he seems to fit pretty firmly into that second round picture. He's also a relatively accomplished hitter who has slashed .297/.362/.410 with six home runs over his three years at FIU, including a pinch hit home run against Pepperdine on March 1st, but his future is definitely on the mound. If the NL hasn't already adopted the DH by the time he reaches the majors, he could be one of the better-hitting pitchers out there.
2020 start vs Fordham
2019 Cape Cod footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/5/1998.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 41/6 K/BB in 25.2 IP
FIU's Logan Allen actually draws a lot of parallels to the Indians' Logan Allen, who is a different person despite also being a left handed pitcher from Florida in his early 20's with a great changeup but without overpowering fastball velocity. This Logan Allen, despite not throwing all that hard, has gotten better and better during his time in Miami. After a strong freshman season, Allen really put himself on the map in 2019, when he posted a 3.11 ERA and a 120/25 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, then dominated the elite Cape Cod League with 15 shutout innings of work (plus two unearned runs), striking out 24 and walking just three. He was as good as ever in his four start 2020 season, putting up a 2.45 ERA and a wicked 41/6 strikeout to walk ratio, including a fantastic start against George Mason on February 21st in which he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and thirteen strikeouts. With that, he finds himself among the top five college lefties in the draft, which is always a heavily sought-after demographic.
Allen is a pitcher through and through. He's not going to overpower you with big stuff, but he'll locate and mix pitches to keep you off balance. His arsenal starts with a fastball around 90, but it plays up not only due to command but due to some nice late finish down in the zone and some riding life up in the zone. His curveball has big, two-plane break that enables him to run it diagonally across the zone or bring it back onto the corner, though it plays closer to average because it lacks that tight, late bite. Lastly, his best pitch is his changeup, as he tunnels it well with his fastball and it just seems to fall off to the side at the last second. Of course, everything plays up due to his above average command, an he knows how to control the strike zone and dictate at bats to keep hitters on his terms, not the other way around.
The ceiling here is pretty limited, but the floor is high. He's not the biggest guy in the world at six feet tall, and he doesn't figure to add much velocity going forward. The fastball might creep more consistently into the low 90's, but that's probably about it. He'll always have a relatively small margin for error in that velocity band, but he's more than capable of staying within it with room to spare. It's probably a #3 starter ceiling with a more realistic #4/#5 outlook, but he's had such consistent success even against advanced hitters that it's hard to bet against him. Due to the depth of college pitching in this draft, he seems to fit pretty firmly into that second round picture. He's also a relatively accomplished hitter who has slashed .297/.362/.410 with six home runs over his three years at FIU, including a pinch hit home run against Pepperdine on March 1st, but his future is definitely on the mound. If the NL hasn't already adopted the DH by the time he reaches the majors, he could be one of the better-hitting pitchers out there.
2020 start vs Fordham
2019 Cape Cod footage
Monday, November 18, 2019
2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Cleveland Indians
This Indians lacks a clear standout, as Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman have good chances to be impact players but lacks an exciting ceiling, while Triston McKenzie has exciting stuff and polish but can't seem to stay healthy. Down lower though, there are quite a few electric arms like those of Ethan Hankins, Daniel Espino, Carlos Vargas, and Lenny Torres, though I find it just a bit odd that the Indians like to stockpile these high octane arms when they actually develop the opposite extremely well. They've recently graduated a ton of pitchability guys, most notably Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, and Zach Plesac, and they have a few more coming up in Logan Allen, Scott Moss, Eli Morgan, and Adam Scott. On the offensive side, the system is more contact-focused than power-focused (sorry Bobby Bradley and Will Benson), with guys like Jones, Freeman, Ernie Clement, Brayan Rocchio, and Aaron Bracho seeming more focused on that part of their game.
Affiliates: AAA Columbus Clippers, AA Akron RubberDucks, High A Lynchburg Hillcats, Class A Lake County Captains, short season Mahoning Valley Scrappers, complex level AZL and DSL Indians plus DSL Indians/Brewers
Catcher
- Bo Naylor (2020 Age: 20): The Indians' first round pick out of a Toronto-area high school and the younger brother of Padres rookie Josh Naylor got off to a strong start to his pro career in 2019, slashing .243/.313/.421 with eleven home runs and a 104/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at Class A Lake County. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but high school catching (and catching in general) is so hard to develop that you'll take it most times. He out-hit the other two high-drafted high school catchers from his draft class in Anthony Seigler (.175/.328/.206 at Yankees Class A) and Will Banfield (.199/.252/.310 at Marlins Class A), showing a solid combination of power and plate discipline and even stealing seven bases. In fact, he was my favorite of the three on draft day, and his feel for the barrel should help him develop into a 15-25 homer, decent to solid on-base percentage catcher if things work out.
- Keep an eye on: Gavin Collins, Bryan Lavastida
Corner Infield
- Nolan Jones (2020 Age: 21-22): The best prospect in this system, Nolan Jones has the potential to be an impact bat in the near future. This year, the former second round pick out of a Philadelphia-area high school slashed .272/.409/.442 with 15 home runs and a 148/96 strikeout to walk ratio across 126 games at High A Lynchburg and AA Akron, showing plenty of patience and feel for the barrel. Strongly built at 6'2", he probably won't hit for a ton of power, but he could be a Michael Brantley-type hitter who swats 15-25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, albeit with a few more strikeouts. He plays a solid third base and while he won't be spectacular there, he'll get the job done. Jones will likely spend a lot of time at AAA in 2020, but don't be surprised to see him called up to the majors at some point.
- Bobby Bradley (2020 Age: 23-24): You want power, Bobby Bradley will give you power. In 2019, he slashed .264/.344/.567 with 33 home runs and a 153/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at AAA Columbus, also spending 15 games in the majors and slashing .178/.245/.356 with one home run there. He has the chance to become something of a Joey Gallo-lite, as he probably won't get to his power enough to hit 40+ home runs per season, but he has a good chance to be at least a Matt Adams-type if not more. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game and he's not quite patient enough to offset it, so he's not a guarantee to be able to hit in the majors, but the big raw power means he'll get every opportunity to try, starting in 2020.
- Yu Chang (2020 Age: 24): Chang plays all over the infield, but with the depth of middle infield prospects in this system, we'll put him on the corner infield list. In 2019, he slashed .253/.322/.427 with nine home runs and a 67/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 games at AAA Columbus, also adding in a .178/.286/.274 performance over 28 major league games. He's got some power from the right side and doesn't strike out a ton, and he's worked to become a more balanced hitter in recent years. He profiles more as a useful, bat-first utility infielder than as a starter, but should earn a spot in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Wilson Garcia, Ulysses Cantu, Jhonkensy Noel, Joe Naranjo
Middle Infield
- Ernie Clement (2020 Age: 24): Clement is a light hitting middle infielder who makes extremely easy contact from the right side of the plate, and he slashed .269/.323/.331 with one home run, 17 stolen bases, and a 34/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games, mostly at AA Akron. He doesn't generate much impact at all, but he puts the ball in play consistently and should not have a problem doing so in the majors. He won't hit for nearly enough power to start, but he should provide a quality utility infielder in the near future.
- Tyler Freeman (2020 Age: 20-21): As a low walk, low power infielder, Freeman was always going to have to get the ball in play a lot to stay relevant, and he's done that about as well as you could hope. After slashing .352/.405/.511 in short season ball in 2018, he hit .306/.368/.410 with three home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 53/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg. He finds the barrel extremely easily and hit 32 doubles and five triples despite knocking just three home runs, continuously taking extra bases and finding ways to help the team win. He lacks physical tools and simply relies on his exceptional feel for the game, and that should make him at least a strong utility infielder if not a starting second baseman at the major league level.
- Brayan Rocchio (2020 Age: 19): Rocchio is just a 5'10", 150 pound 18 year old kid out of Venezuela, but he surprised a lot of people by slashing .335/.390/.442 in complex ball last year. This year, his numbers were a bit down as an 18 year old in short season ball, but he slashed .250/.310/.373 with five home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 40/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Mahoning Valley. He's got great feel for the barrel and game for his age, and he's an explosive hitter despite his lack of physicality. Adding strength to his small frame could make him an impact hitter all around, and he'll stick up the middle either at second or shortstop.
- Aaron Bracho (2020 Age: 19): Bracho isn't much bigger than Rocchio at 5'11", and in 2019 he slashed .281/.402/.570 with eight home runs and a 29/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Mahoning Valley. His ability to just drop the barrel to the ball and spray it around the park helped him beat up on the low level competition he faced in the Arizona League, though of course he was only 18 as well. He profiles better as a second baseman but his advanced bat should profile there.
- Christian Cairo (2020 Age: 18-19): The Indians fourth round pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2019, Christian Cairo is the son of former major leaguer Miguel Cairo. The younger Cairo slashed just .178/.324/.212 with a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in the Arizona League in his pro debut, though he had only just turned 18 in June. He's well known for his feel for the game and ability to make contact, and the Indians hope that at least some power will come. He's also a strong defender due to his instincts, though second base might be his better long term home, especially in a system deep with middle infield talent like this one.
- Keep an eye on: Ike Freeman, Raynel Delgado, Gabriel Rodriguez, Jose Tena, Yordys Valdes, Angel Martinez
Outfielders
- Daniel Johnson (2020 Age: 24-25): Acquired from the Nationals in the Yan Gomes trade before the season, Johnson had a successful first season in the Cleveland system by slashing .290/.361/.507 with 19 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 118/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Akron and AAA Columbus. Despite standing only 5'10", he's one of the most tooled up players in this system, as he shows power, speed, and arm strength to be a net positive on both sides of the ball. While he can be inconsistent at the plate, he's an impact hitter when he's on, and he projects for 20+ home runs per season and middling on-base percentages if he can make it click up there. Defensively, he could win Gold Gloves in right field because of his cannon arm and good range.
- Ka'ai Tom (2020 Age: 25-26): Tom has flown a bit under the radar since being drafted in the fifth round out of Kentucky in 2015, but he had a breakout 2019 where he slashed .290/.380/.532 with 23 home runs and a 126/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games in the upper minors at Akron and Columbus. Even at just 5'9", he has power from a quick left handed swing and it wasn't just a product of the juiced balls in AAA, as he still slashed .512 in AA. He doesn't necessarily sell out for power, but he does have to intentionally lift the ball if he wants to get one out, so his hit tool is a bit behind the power and probably means he'll be more of a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but the bat combined with solid defense in the outfield means he should be a valuable one.
- Will Benson (2020 Age: 21-22): It's hard to know exactly what to make of Benson, a first round pick in 2016 out of high school in Atlanta. He's been brought along slowly with mixed results, not reaching full season ball until 2018 and only slashing .180/.324/.370 for Class A Lake County that year. He repeated the level in 2019, with far different results: 18 home runs, a .272/.371/.604 slash line, 18 stolen bases, and a 78/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. That earned him a promotion to High A Lynchburg, where his numbers dropped again: four home runs, .189/.290/.304 slash line, 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 61 games. He has extremely quick hands through the zone that help him produce a ton of power from his 6'5" frame, and he's a selective enough hitter to pad his on-base percentage with plenty of walks. However, he seems to lack the feel for the barrel you'd hope to see in a power hitter like himself, resulting in too many popouts and strikeouts. If he can figure out how to get that barrel where it needs to go, he could hit 30+ home runs annually in the majors, but he isn't there yet. He's also a sound defensive right fielder that should provide positive value there.
- Steven Kwan (2020 Age: 22): Kwan is basically the outfield version of Ernie Clement. A fifth round pick out of Oregon State in 2018, he slashed .280/.353/.382 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 51/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lynchburg this year. He doesn't show much power but he can spray doubles and triples into the gap, and his exceptional knowledge of the strike zone helps him get the ball in play consistently. He profiles as a fourth outfielder at the major league level but that plate discipline gives him a very good chance of getting there.
- George Valera (2020 Age: 19): Valera is a Dominican outfielder who didn't get a chance to show what he could do until 2019, when he slashed .236/.356/.446 with eight home runs and a 52/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at short season Mahoning Valley before he slumped to .087/.192/.174 in a six game call-up to Class A Lake County. He's extremely talented with advanced feel for the strike zone and barrel, and that was apparent as he reached full season ball at 18 years old. He'll get another crack at it in his age-19 season in 2020, where he'll hope to take the next step towards developing into a high on-base hitter with some power potential despite his 5'10" frame.
- Keep an eye on: Oscar Gonzalez, Jodd Carter, Quentin Holmes, Will Brennan
Starting Pitching
- Logan Allen (2020 Age: 22-23): Allen has bounced around a lot, originally getting traded from the Red Sox to the Padres in the 2015 Craig Kimbrel deal before finding himself in Cleveland following the three-team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes trade in July. Spending the year at AAA, Allen had a 5.85 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and an 81/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings, also putting up a 6.18 ERA and a 17/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches, led by a plus changeup that functions as his out pitch. The lack of strong breaking balls limits his upside to that of a #4 starter, but he's just about there and with his solid command, he could contribute in the Indians rotation in 2020.
- Scott Moss (2020 Age: 25): Joining Allen in coming over in the three team trade is Scott Moss, a 6'6" lefty who posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 159/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings at AA and AAA in what was an extremely dominant 2019 campaign. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and doesn't have a true out pitch or even great command, but he uses his size and knowledge of pitching to his advantage to get outs consistently. That makes his average stuff play way up despite his so-so command, and it gives him the chance to exceed expectations upon reaching the majors in 2020, where he's currently projected as a #5 starter.
- Triston McKenzie (2020 Age: 22-23): McKenzie might have the best combination of electric stuff and polish in this system, but injuries held him to just 90.2 innings in 2018 and off the mound completely in 2019. The Floridian righty is a 6'5" string bean that can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add in a curveball with a ton of vertical movement while also keeping lefties off balance with a diving changeup. Unlike most young pitchers with his profile, he can actually command everything pretty well, and when he's on the mound, he looks like a potential future ace or #2 starter. However, he has to figure out how to stay healthy (it was back problems that wiped out his 2019), because otherwise he may be ticketed for the bullpen despite the electric stuff and command.
- Eli Morgan (2020 Age: 23-24): An under the radar eighth round pick out of Gonzaga in 2017, Morgan has exceeded expectations every step of the way and posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 146/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.2 innings at High A Lynchburg, AA Akron, and AAA Columbus. He's only a 5'10" righty with a 90 mile an hour fastball and a decent slider, but he mixes and commands his pitches very well and drops in an above average changeup that functions as his out pitch. There are certainly more exciting arms all over this system, but the Indians have done excepctionally well with developing this kind of crafty righty, recently graduating Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, and Zach Plesac off of prospect lists and into their rotation.
- Jean Carlos Mejia (2020 Age: 23): Mejia had a big, breakout 2018 season in A ball (3.31 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), but he missed most of 2019 with a sports hernia and finished with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 36/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings at High A Lynchburg. When healthy, Mejia checks most of the boxes for a successful major league starter, showing some velocity (low to mid 90's fastball), two good breaking balls with plenty of feel to spin them, and good command from a 6'4" frame. However, he's missing one of the big ones, and that's durability. He set a career high with 98 innings pitched in 2018, and he otherwise has never broken 40 in a season, which is very concerning if you want to hand him 150 per season in the majors. If he can't hold up as a starter, he could be a quality three pitch reliever.
- Ethan Hankins (2020 Age: 19-20): Hankins has about as electric of an arm as you can find, and he used it to post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 71/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings between short season Mahoning Valley and Class A Lake County in 2019. His mid 90's fastball has a ton of running and riding action that makes it nearly impossible to square up, and his changeup is much more advanced than that of most teenage pitchers. Developing a good breaking ball could make him elite and get hitters' eyes going in the other direction, though he hasn't been able to do that yet and currently relies on merely decent sliders and curveballs. As it stands, with so-so command and a spotty injury history, Hankins is a total boom-bust prospect, though developing only two out of the three between command, durability, and a breaking ball should be enough to make him an impact starter.
- Luis Oviedo (2020 Age: 20-21): Oviedo dominated short season ball in 2018 (1.88 ERA, 61/10 K/BB), though he hasn't quite gotten the same results since reaching full season ball. This year, he had a 5.38 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 72/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 innings, showing a quality fastball in the mid 90's as well as a full array of secondary pitches, but his command regressed and he was hit hard when he missed spots. He's a projectable 6'4" and shows a lot of promise with his feel for multiple offspeed pitches, though there's clearly more work to be done in getting him more consistent with his mechanics and command. However, he's also the kind of guy who could break out at any point.
- Daniel Espino (2020 Age: 19): Ethan Hankins has the second most explosive arm in the system, and that's because 2019 first rounder Daniel Espino has the first. A Panamanian right hander who attended school in Georgia, Espino posted a 3.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings in the complex level Arizona League and at short season Mahoning Valley. He's generously listed at 6'2" and sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which like that of Hankins, has excellent life. He can also get sinking action on his similarly fast two seamer, and unlike Hankins, he has not one but two excellent breaking balls that can miss bats. He still needs a changeup, but he has pretty decent command for someone who throws so hard so young and he's proven durable so far, so he has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy. However, hard throwing kids like him have had a spotty track record, with guys like Tyler Kolek, Riley Pint, Alex Speas, and Hunter Greene running into trouble and/or injuries in pro ball recently (and the jury is still out on Hankins).
- Hunter Gaddis (2020 Age: 22): A fifth round pick out of Georgia State in 2019, I noted Gaddis as more of an upside play than a safe bet despite coming from the college ranks. That might already be coming to fruition, as he had about as successful as a pro debut as you can imagine: 2.73 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 53/7 K/BB over 33 innings in complex ball and at Mahoning Valley. Gaddis brings four pitches to the table but was often inconsistent at Georgia State as his mechanics made his stuff play down, but the Indians have already quieted down his delivery and he did a much better job of hitting his spots in pro ball, also looking like he's getting better extension towards the plate. If he can maintain this progress, he could be a steal in the fifth round and provide Cleveland with a mid-rotation starter. Watch this one.
- Keep an eye on: Sam Hentges, Adam Scott, Cody Morris, Juan Hillman, Lenny Torres,
Relief Pitching
- James Karinchak (2020 Age: 24): Want to know what untouchable looks like? In 2019, Karinchak had a 2.67 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 74/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.1 innings between AA Akron, AAA Columbus, and some complex level rehab. Those numbers are skewed a bit by the juiced balls in AAA, but Karinchak's run through AA especially was nothing short of legendary: ten shutout innings, two hits, two walks, and 24 strikeouts. That's two thirds of his opponents going down via strikeout in AA and 59.2% overall. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and gets some serious run on it, and his hammer curveball gets him swings and misses virtually whenever he wants them. However, he struggles to throw strikes consistently, which is just about the only thing keeping him from being a major league closer today. Landing his two plus pitches for strikes could get him there though, and even if he has only a rough idea where the ball is going, he'll be a successful major league reliever. In five appearances with the Indians this year, he had a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and an 8/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings.
- Nick Sandlin (2020 Age: 23): A second round pick out of Southern Miss in 2018, Sandlin reached AAA in his first full season and might be just as interesting as Karinchak. After dominating, and I mean dominating (1.06 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 144/18 K/BB) as a junior at USM, he spent 2019 in the upper minors and posted a 2.39 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 38/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at Akron and Columbus. He's only 5'11" and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but he gets by on 80-grade deception because he can and will throw all of his pitches overhand, sidearm, or even submarine, racking up awkward swings all over the place and keeping hitters as off balance as can be. His slider especially is a weapon, as it can dive clear across the plate, and he commands everything pretty well. Unfortunately, he was shut down with a forearm strain in July, so durability remains an important question.
- Carlos Vargas (2020 Age: 20): Vargas spent 2019 as a starter in short season ball, posting a 4.52 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.2 innings. He's got an extremely quick arm that produces and explosive mid 90's fastball and a hard, bat-missing slider, and the Indians are hoping to help him develop that changeup and command and keep him in the rotation. Even though he'll spend all of 2020 at 20 years old, his delivery, explosive stuff, and quick arm most likely point to the bullpen for me, where he could sit in the upper 90's and miss bats by the bunch.
- Keep an eye on: Aaron Pinto, Kellen Rholl, Matt Waldron
Affiliates: AAA Columbus Clippers, AA Akron RubberDucks, High A Lynchburg Hillcats, Class A Lake County Captains, short season Mahoning Valley Scrappers, complex level AZL and DSL Indians plus DSL Indians/Brewers
Catcher
- Bo Naylor (2020 Age: 20): The Indians' first round pick out of a Toronto-area high school and the younger brother of Padres rookie Josh Naylor got off to a strong start to his pro career in 2019, slashing .243/.313/.421 with eleven home runs and a 104/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at Class A Lake County. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but high school catching (and catching in general) is so hard to develop that you'll take it most times. He out-hit the other two high-drafted high school catchers from his draft class in Anthony Seigler (.175/.328/.206 at Yankees Class A) and Will Banfield (.199/.252/.310 at Marlins Class A), showing a solid combination of power and plate discipline and even stealing seven bases. In fact, he was my favorite of the three on draft day, and his feel for the barrel should help him develop into a 15-25 homer, decent to solid on-base percentage catcher if things work out.
- Keep an eye on: Gavin Collins, Bryan Lavastida
Corner Infield
- Nolan Jones (2020 Age: 21-22): The best prospect in this system, Nolan Jones has the potential to be an impact bat in the near future. This year, the former second round pick out of a Philadelphia-area high school slashed .272/.409/.442 with 15 home runs and a 148/96 strikeout to walk ratio across 126 games at High A Lynchburg and AA Akron, showing plenty of patience and feel for the barrel. Strongly built at 6'2", he probably won't hit for a ton of power, but he could be a Michael Brantley-type hitter who swats 15-25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, albeit with a few more strikeouts. He plays a solid third base and while he won't be spectacular there, he'll get the job done. Jones will likely spend a lot of time at AAA in 2020, but don't be surprised to see him called up to the majors at some point.
- Bobby Bradley (2020 Age: 23-24): You want power, Bobby Bradley will give you power. In 2019, he slashed .264/.344/.567 with 33 home runs and a 153/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at AAA Columbus, also spending 15 games in the majors and slashing .178/.245/.356 with one home run there. He has the chance to become something of a Joey Gallo-lite, as he probably won't get to his power enough to hit 40+ home runs per season, but he has a good chance to be at least a Matt Adams-type if not more. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game and he's not quite patient enough to offset it, so he's not a guarantee to be able to hit in the majors, but the big raw power means he'll get every opportunity to try, starting in 2020.
- Yu Chang (2020 Age: 24): Chang plays all over the infield, but with the depth of middle infield prospects in this system, we'll put him on the corner infield list. In 2019, he slashed .253/.322/.427 with nine home runs and a 67/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 games at AAA Columbus, also adding in a .178/.286/.274 performance over 28 major league games. He's got some power from the right side and doesn't strike out a ton, and he's worked to become a more balanced hitter in recent years. He profiles more as a useful, bat-first utility infielder than as a starter, but should earn a spot in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Wilson Garcia, Ulysses Cantu, Jhonkensy Noel, Joe Naranjo
Middle Infield
- Ernie Clement (2020 Age: 24): Clement is a light hitting middle infielder who makes extremely easy contact from the right side of the plate, and he slashed .269/.323/.331 with one home run, 17 stolen bases, and a 34/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games, mostly at AA Akron. He doesn't generate much impact at all, but he puts the ball in play consistently and should not have a problem doing so in the majors. He won't hit for nearly enough power to start, but he should provide a quality utility infielder in the near future.
- Tyler Freeman (2020 Age: 20-21): As a low walk, low power infielder, Freeman was always going to have to get the ball in play a lot to stay relevant, and he's done that about as well as you could hope. After slashing .352/.405/.511 in short season ball in 2018, he hit .306/.368/.410 with three home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 53/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg. He finds the barrel extremely easily and hit 32 doubles and five triples despite knocking just three home runs, continuously taking extra bases and finding ways to help the team win. He lacks physical tools and simply relies on his exceptional feel for the game, and that should make him at least a strong utility infielder if not a starting second baseman at the major league level.
- Brayan Rocchio (2020 Age: 19): Rocchio is just a 5'10", 150 pound 18 year old kid out of Venezuela, but he surprised a lot of people by slashing .335/.390/.442 in complex ball last year. This year, his numbers were a bit down as an 18 year old in short season ball, but he slashed .250/.310/.373 with five home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 40/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Mahoning Valley. He's got great feel for the barrel and game for his age, and he's an explosive hitter despite his lack of physicality. Adding strength to his small frame could make him an impact hitter all around, and he'll stick up the middle either at second or shortstop.
- Aaron Bracho (2020 Age: 19): Bracho isn't much bigger than Rocchio at 5'11", and in 2019 he slashed .281/.402/.570 with eight home runs and a 29/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Mahoning Valley. His ability to just drop the barrel to the ball and spray it around the park helped him beat up on the low level competition he faced in the Arizona League, though of course he was only 18 as well. He profiles better as a second baseman but his advanced bat should profile there.
- Christian Cairo (2020 Age: 18-19): The Indians fourth round pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2019, Christian Cairo is the son of former major leaguer Miguel Cairo. The younger Cairo slashed just .178/.324/.212 with a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in the Arizona League in his pro debut, though he had only just turned 18 in June. He's well known for his feel for the game and ability to make contact, and the Indians hope that at least some power will come. He's also a strong defender due to his instincts, though second base might be his better long term home, especially in a system deep with middle infield talent like this one.
- Keep an eye on: Ike Freeman, Raynel Delgado, Gabriel Rodriguez, Jose Tena, Yordys Valdes, Angel Martinez
Outfielders
- Daniel Johnson (2020 Age: 24-25): Acquired from the Nationals in the Yan Gomes trade before the season, Johnson had a successful first season in the Cleveland system by slashing .290/.361/.507 with 19 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 118/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Akron and AAA Columbus. Despite standing only 5'10", he's one of the most tooled up players in this system, as he shows power, speed, and arm strength to be a net positive on both sides of the ball. While he can be inconsistent at the plate, he's an impact hitter when he's on, and he projects for 20+ home runs per season and middling on-base percentages if he can make it click up there. Defensively, he could win Gold Gloves in right field because of his cannon arm and good range.
- Ka'ai Tom (2020 Age: 25-26): Tom has flown a bit under the radar since being drafted in the fifth round out of Kentucky in 2015, but he had a breakout 2019 where he slashed .290/.380/.532 with 23 home runs and a 126/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games in the upper minors at Akron and Columbus. Even at just 5'9", he has power from a quick left handed swing and it wasn't just a product of the juiced balls in AAA, as he still slashed .512 in AA. He doesn't necessarily sell out for power, but he does have to intentionally lift the ball if he wants to get one out, so his hit tool is a bit behind the power and probably means he'll be more of a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but the bat combined with solid defense in the outfield means he should be a valuable one.
- Will Benson (2020 Age: 21-22): It's hard to know exactly what to make of Benson, a first round pick in 2016 out of high school in Atlanta. He's been brought along slowly with mixed results, not reaching full season ball until 2018 and only slashing .180/.324/.370 for Class A Lake County that year. He repeated the level in 2019, with far different results: 18 home runs, a .272/.371/.604 slash line, 18 stolen bases, and a 78/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. That earned him a promotion to High A Lynchburg, where his numbers dropped again: four home runs, .189/.290/.304 slash line, 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 61 games. He has extremely quick hands through the zone that help him produce a ton of power from his 6'5" frame, and he's a selective enough hitter to pad his on-base percentage with plenty of walks. However, he seems to lack the feel for the barrel you'd hope to see in a power hitter like himself, resulting in too many popouts and strikeouts. If he can figure out how to get that barrel where it needs to go, he could hit 30+ home runs annually in the majors, but he isn't there yet. He's also a sound defensive right fielder that should provide positive value there.
- Steven Kwan (2020 Age: 22): Kwan is basically the outfield version of Ernie Clement. A fifth round pick out of Oregon State in 2018, he slashed .280/.353/.382 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 51/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lynchburg this year. He doesn't show much power but he can spray doubles and triples into the gap, and his exceptional knowledge of the strike zone helps him get the ball in play consistently. He profiles as a fourth outfielder at the major league level but that plate discipline gives him a very good chance of getting there.
- George Valera (2020 Age: 19): Valera is a Dominican outfielder who didn't get a chance to show what he could do until 2019, when he slashed .236/.356/.446 with eight home runs and a 52/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at short season Mahoning Valley before he slumped to .087/.192/.174 in a six game call-up to Class A Lake County. He's extremely talented with advanced feel for the strike zone and barrel, and that was apparent as he reached full season ball at 18 years old. He'll get another crack at it in his age-19 season in 2020, where he'll hope to take the next step towards developing into a high on-base hitter with some power potential despite his 5'10" frame.
- Keep an eye on: Oscar Gonzalez, Jodd Carter, Quentin Holmes, Will Brennan
Starting Pitching
- Logan Allen (2020 Age: 22-23): Allen has bounced around a lot, originally getting traded from the Red Sox to the Padres in the 2015 Craig Kimbrel deal before finding himself in Cleveland following the three-team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes trade in July. Spending the year at AAA, Allen had a 5.85 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and an 81/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings, also putting up a 6.18 ERA and a 17/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches, led by a plus changeup that functions as his out pitch. The lack of strong breaking balls limits his upside to that of a #4 starter, but he's just about there and with his solid command, he could contribute in the Indians rotation in 2020.
- Scott Moss (2020 Age: 25): Joining Allen in coming over in the three team trade is Scott Moss, a 6'6" lefty who posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 159/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings at AA and AAA in what was an extremely dominant 2019 campaign. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and doesn't have a true out pitch or even great command, but he uses his size and knowledge of pitching to his advantage to get outs consistently. That makes his average stuff play way up despite his so-so command, and it gives him the chance to exceed expectations upon reaching the majors in 2020, where he's currently projected as a #5 starter.
- Triston McKenzie (2020 Age: 22-23): McKenzie might have the best combination of electric stuff and polish in this system, but injuries held him to just 90.2 innings in 2018 and off the mound completely in 2019. The Floridian righty is a 6'5" string bean that can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add in a curveball with a ton of vertical movement while also keeping lefties off balance with a diving changeup. Unlike most young pitchers with his profile, he can actually command everything pretty well, and when he's on the mound, he looks like a potential future ace or #2 starter. However, he has to figure out how to stay healthy (it was back problems that wiped out his 2019), because otherwise he may be ticketed for the bullpen despite the electric stuff and command.
- Eli Morgan (2020 Age: 23-24): An under the radar eighth round pick out of Gonzaga in 2017, Morgan has exceeded expectations every step of the way and posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 146/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.2 innings at High A Lynchburg, AA Akron, and AAA Columbus. He's only a 5'10" righty with a 90 mile an hour fastball and a decent slider, but he mixes and commands his pitches very well and drops in an above average changeup that functions as his out pitch. There are certainly more exciting arms all over this system, but the Indians have done excepctionally well with developing this kind of crafty righty, recently graduating Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, and Zach Plesac off of prospect lists and into their rotation.
- Jean Carlos Mejia (2020 Age: 23): Mejia had a big, breakout 2018 season in A ball (3.31 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), but he missed most of 2019 with a sports hernia and finished with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 36/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings at High A Lynchburg. When healthy, Mejia checks most of the boxes for a successful major league starter, showing some velocity (low to mid 90's fastball), two good breaking balls with plenty of feel to spin them, and good command from a 6'4" frame. However, he's missing one of the big ones, and that's durability. He set a career high with 98 innings pitched in 2018, and he otherwise has never broken 40 in a season, which is very concerning if you want to hand him 150 per season in the majors. If he can't hold up as a starter, he could be a quality three pitch reliever.
- Ethan Hankins (2020 Age: 19-20): Hankins has about as electric of an arm as you can find, and he used it to post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 71/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings between short season Mahoning Valley and Class A Lake County in 2019. His mid 90's fastball has a ton of running and riding action that makes it nearly impossible to square up, and his changeup is much more advanced than that of most teenage pitchers. Developing a good breaking ball could make him elite and get hitters' eyes going in the other direction, though he hasn't been able to do that yet and currently relies on merely decent sliders and curveballs. As it stands, with so-so command and a spotty injury history, Hankins is a total boom-bust prospect, though developing only two out of the three between command, durability, and a breaking ball should be enough to make him an impact starter.
- Luis Oviedo (2020 Age: 20-21): Oviedo dominated short season ball in 2018 (1.88 ERA, 61/10 K/BB), though he hasn't quite gotten the same results since reaching full season ball. This year, he had a 5.38 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 72/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 innings, showing a quality fastball in the mid 90's as well as a full array of secondary pitches, but his command regressed and he was hit hard when he missed spots. He's a projectable 6'4" and shows a lot of promise with his feel for multiple offspeed pitches, though there's clearly more work to be done in getting him more consistent with his mechanics and command. However, he's also the kind of guy who could break out at any point.
- Daniel Espino (2020 Age: 19): Ethan Hankins has the second most explosive arm in the system, and that's because 2019 first rounder Daniel Espino has the first. A Panamanian right hander who attended school in Georgia, Espino posted a 3.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings in the complex level Arizona League and at short season Mahoning Valley. He's generously listed at 6'2" and sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which like that of Hankins, has excellent life. He can also get sinking action on his similarly fast two seamer, and unlike Hankins, he has not one but two excellent breaking balls that can miss bats. He still needs a changeup, but he has pretty decent command for someone who throws so hard so young and he's proven durable so far, so he has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy. However, hard throwing kids like him have had a spotty track record, with guys like Tyler Kolek, Riley Pint, Alex Speas, and Hunter Greene running into trouble and/or injuries in pro ball recently (and the jury is still out on Hankins).
- Hunter Gaddis (2020 Age: 22): A fifth round pick out of Georgia State in 2019, I noted Gaddis as more of an upside play than a safe bet despite coming from the college ranks. That might already be coming to fruition, as he had about as successful as a pro debut as you can imagine: 2.73 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 53/7 K/BB over 33 innings in complex ball and at Mahoning Valley. Gaddis brings four pitches to the table but was often inconsistent at Georgia State as his mechanics made his stuff play down, but the Indians have already quieted down his delivery and he did a much better job of hitting his spots in pro ball, also looking like he's getting better extension towards the plate. If he can maintain this progress, he could be a steal in the fifth round and provide Cleveland with a mid-rotation starter. Watch this one.
- Keep an eye on: Sam Hentges, Adam Scott, Cody Morris, Juan Hillman, Lenny Torres,
Relief Pitching
- James Karinchak (2020 Age: 24): Want to know what untouchable looks like? In 2019, Karinchak had a 2.67 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 74/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.1 innings between AA Akron, AAA Columbus, and some complex level rehab. Those numbers are skewed a bit by the juiced balls in AAA, but Karinchak's run through AA especially was nothing short of legendary: ten shutout innings, two hits, two walks, and 24 strikeouts. That's two thirds of his opponents going down via strikeout in AA and 59.2% overall. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and gets some serious run on it, and his hammer curveball gets him swings and misses virtually whenever he wants them. However, he struggles to throw strikes consistently, which is just about the only thing keeping him from being a major league closer today. Landing his two plus pitches for strikes could get him there though, and even if he has only a rough idea where the ball is going, he'll be a successful major league reliever. In five appearances with the Indians this year, he had a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and an 8/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings.
- Nick Sandlin (2020 Age: 23): A second round pick out of Southern Miss in 2018, Sandlin reached AAA in his first full season and might be just as interesting as Karinchak. After dominating, and I mean dominating (1.06 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 144/18 K/BB) as a junior at USM, he spent 2019 in the upper minors and posted a 2.39 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 38/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at Akron and Columbus. He's only 5'11" and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but he gets by on 80-grade deception because he can and will throw all of his pitches overhand, sidearm, or even submarine, racking up awkward swings all over the place and keeping hitters as off balance as can be. His slider especially is a weapon, as it can dive clear across the plate, and he commands everything pretty well. Unfortunately, he was shut down with a forearm strain in July, so durability remains an important question.
- Carlos Vargas (2020 Age: 20): Vargas spent 2019 as a starter in short season ball, posting a 4.52 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.2 innings. He's got an extremely quick arm that produces and explosive mid 90's fastball and a hard, bat-missing slider, and the Indians are hoping to help him develop that changeup and command and keep him in the rotation. Even though he'll spend all of 2020 at 20 years old, his delivery, explosive stuff, and quick arm most likely point to the bullpen for me, where he could sit in the upper 90's and miss bats by the bunch.
- Keep an eye on: Aaron Pinto, Kellen Rholl, Matt Waldron
Thursday, March 7, 2019
Reviewing the San Diego Padres Farm System
While the Braves, Rays, White Sox, and Blue Jays might be able to give the Padres a run for their money, it's pretty easy to pick San Diego as having the top farm system in baseball. They have the headliner (Fernando Tatis Jr.), a supporting cast of impact hitters (Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, Josh Naylor), and plenty of pitching depth (led by MacKenzie Gore, Logan Allen, Chris Paddack), making it no surprise that Manny Machado was willing to sign there despite the lack of recent success (though I'm sure the weather didn't hurt). In an overview sense, there's not much else to say except that this system is loaded in every way.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA San Antonio Missions*, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, Short Season Tri-City Dust Devils, and complex level AZL and DSL Padres
*AA affiliate will move from San Antonio, TX to Amarillo, TX in 2019
The Headliner: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
20 year old Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis, besides having a great birthday that also happens to be mine (January 2nd crew), is the only other player that can really give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a run for his money as the top prospect in the game right now. As a teenager in 2018, Tatis slashed .286/.355/.507 with 16 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA San Antonio, putting up great numbers despite watching his season end with a thumb injury in July. He's already a complete player who does everything well, showing power, the ability to get on base, speed, and strong defense at shortstop, all at a very young age. I'm not concerned about the higher than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio because Tatis was just 19 years old in AA, and he barrels the ball up consistently enough that it won't be a problem in the majors in 2019. Set to play all of this season at just 20 years old, he should be a strong candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he looks to fulfill his projections as a 20+ homer bat with high on-base percentages, double digit stolen bases, and great defense: a perennial All Star projection.
High Minors Hitters: 2B Luis Urias, C/OF Francisco Mejia, 3B Jason Vosler, OF Josh Naylor, C/1B Austin Allen, OF Buddy Reed, and 3B Hudson Potts
The Padres are deeper in pitching, but I'll start with the upper level hitters behind Fernando Tatis Jr. who are set to make an impact in the very near future. 21 year old Luis Urias slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight home runs and a 109/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA El Paso, then slashed .208/.264/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 major league games. At 5'9", he doesn't hit for much power, but Urias is a steady singles hitter who draws plenty of walks, avoids strikeouts for the most part, and overall projects to post high on-base percentages. He should be a steady producer for years to come. 23 year old Francisco Mejia is a very well known prospect, having been the top prospect in the Indians' system before he was traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand trade. Mejia slashed .293/.338/.471 with 14 home runs and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AAA, also slashing .179/.258/.375 with three home runs and a 19/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 major league games. Mejia has high upside but also comes with plenty of questions, as he is a very solid hitter who can consistently barrel the ball up and spray deep line drives and home runs all over the park, though he is unproven at the major league level despite all his success in the high minors. Defensively, the Padres continue to be hopeful that he can stick as a catcher with his cannon arm, but his defense overall is just so-so. There is a chance he ends up in the outfield or even at third base, where he is also just so-so, but his potential for 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages means that the Padres will be very patient. 25 year old Jason Vosler, who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, looks like more of a bench bat after slashing .251/.330/.467 with 23 home runs and a 149/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA and AAA in 2018. He has power and draws a lot of walks, but he likely won't hit for enough average to ever warrant a starting position, especially with Manny Machado now blocking him at third base. He's an average defensive infielder and will warrant consideration as a power hitting pinch hitter. Dropping down a level, 21 year old Josh Naylor projects to be an impact hitter at the major league level. In 2018, Naylor slashed .297/.383/.447 with 17 home runs and a 69/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA San Antonio, showing some power and great plate discipline. A stocky guy at 5'11" and 250 pounds, you'd expect more power out of Naylor, but his keen eye at the plate and high on-base percentages make up for that and he should hit his way into the starting lineup down the line. Defensively, he doesn't provide much value, playing an average first base and a mediocre left field, but at this point the bat looks like it is enough to carry him. 25 year old Austin Allen finds himself in a somewhat similar position, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .290/.351/.506 with 22 home runs and a 97/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at San Antonio. While Naylor has better plate discipline, the 6'2" Allen has shown more power at this point (keep in mind that Naylor is nearly three and a half years younger) and has the defensive edge because he *might* be able to stick as a catcher. His defense there is mediocre and he just turned 25 in January, but the Padres still hope to refine him to the point where he is playable back there and his power can help him be a bat-first catcher. If he is forced to move to first base, he's still a strong enough hitter that he should be able to stick on a roster and even earn some starts. 23 year old Buddy Reed has had a roller coaster ride for a career, looking like a potential top ten pick for the 2016 draft before an up and down junior season at Florida knocked him to the second round (48th overall), then he struggled in pro ball in both 2016 (.254/.326/.337) and 2017 (.234/.290/.396). However, he turned it around in 2018, slashing .271/.319/.435 with 13 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. He was much better at hitter-friendly Lake Elsinore (.324/.371/.549) than he was at much more pitcher-friendly San Antonio (.179/.227/.235), which raises questions about his ability to hit at the major league level, but he still retains high upside despite turning 24 in April. Reed is exceptionally fast and plays great defense in center field, plus his wiry frame helps him hit for some power at the plate. However, if he wants to end up more than just a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement, he really has to improve his plate discipline in a hurry. Lastly, 20 year old Hudson Potts was actually the Padres first round pick (24th overall, then known as Hudson Sanchez) out of a Dallas area high school in that same 2016 draft, and he slashed .260/.335/.455 with 19 home runs and a 145/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games between Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Like Reed, he was much better at Lake Elsinore (.281/.350/.498) than he was at San Antonio (.154/.258/.231), though being three and a half years younger does buy him slack. He has some power and at 6'3", he looks like he could grow into more, and while he strikes out a lot, he has been young for the levels he has played at and does possess an advanced bat. Potts isn't a great defender at third base but isn't a liability either, and he is somewhat of a sleeper in the deep system he plays in. Watch for Potts to draw more attention in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Edward Olivares, OF Tirso Ornelas, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, C Luis Campusano, SS Xavier Edwards, and 2B Tucupita Marcano
The best hitters in the Padres' system are up near the top, but they have a whole group of young guys in the low and mid minors that could break out and join that group in 2019. 22 year old Edward Olivares, acquired from the Blue Jays for Yangervis Solarte last offseason, looks like a solid fourth outfielder after slashing .277/.321/.429 with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 102/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at hitter-friendly High A Lake Elsinore in 2018. Olivares is a speedy centerfielder known for his great outfield defense, adding a very good feel for the barrel and plenty of gap power at the plate to round out his skill set. Overall, the bat is likely just a little too light if he wants to be a long-term starter in the majors, but with the ability to post solid on-base percentages and quite a few extra base hits, he should be a very useful fourth outfielder. 18 year old Tirso Ornelas, who grew up right across the border from San Diego in Tijuana, burst onto the scene in 2018 by slashing .252/.341/.392 with eight home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games at Class A Fort Wayne. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but Ornelas just turned 18 right before the start of the season and managed very respectable numbers against full season competition (most notably an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate). In addition to his very mature approach at the plate, he has room to grow into more power at 6'3" and is a prime candidate for an offensive breakout in the hitter-friendly High A California League in 2019. Defensively, the teenager should be a solid right fielder. 19 year old Jeisson Rosario has a similar profile, having slashed .271/.368/.353 with three home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 108/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. He's also very young, just five months older than Ornelas, and he also has a very patient approach at the plate that allows him to draw plenty of walks. He might strike out a bit more and he doesn't have quite as much power, but he's faster and also has an advanced bat for his age. Ornelas is the better prospect at this point but it will be interesting to see Rosario develop alongside him in the outfield. 19 year old Gabriel Arias slashed .240/.302/.352 with six home runs and a 149/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games with Fort Wayne, and like Ornelas and Rosario, he was extremely young for the level. While his bat isn't as developed as Ornelas's or even Rosario's, he's the best defender in the group with a slick glove and a strong arm at shortstop, buying his bat plenty of time to develop. He has some gap power at this point and isn't afraid to draw a walk, so he has the building blocks to eventually build himself into a starting-caliber shortstop down the road. (though Fernando Tatis Jr. might have something to say about that). 20 year old Luis Campusano was a second round pick (39th overall) out of an Augusta, Georgia high school in 2017, then he slashed .288/.345/.365 with three home runs and a 43/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. Known for his power as a high schooler, that hasn't quite translated into pro ball, but catchers take longer to develop and his .345 on-base percentage was still encouraging. He's a work in progress defensively but shows the tools to be above average in that regard, and if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently, he could give the Padres a third legitimate catcher behind Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen. Moving farther down in the system, the Padres have a couple of short season bats to replace the big crew graduating from Class A in 2018. 19 year old Xavier Edwards was a competitive balance pick (38th overall) in 2018 out of a South Florida high school, and he slashed .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases and a 25/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and short season Tri-City in his pro debut. Those numbers were exactly in line with what was expected from Edwards, as he brings great plate discipline and feel for the barrel along with lots of speed and defensive value. Because he lacks power, it's important that he continues to spray line drives into the gaps and draw his share of walks. Defensively, he is so-so at shortstop but would be a well above average defender at second base. Overall, he has the makings of a prototypical leadoff man. Lastly, 19 year old Tucupita Marcano, who was apparently named for his hometown of Tucupita, Venezuela, slashed .366/.450/.438 with one home run, 15 stolen bases, and a 16/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in complex ball and at Tri-City. Marcano tore up the complex level Arizona League (.395/.497/.444) but was also strong in short season ball (.314/.355/.429) despite not turning 19 until after the season, showing advanced plate discipline and the ability to make consistent hard contact. He's a decent middle infielder who may be forced from shortstop to second base, but with his potential to post very high on-base percentages, his defense may not matter and 2019 could be the year he really establishes himself in this system.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Jacob Nix, RHP Chris Paddack, and RHP Lake Bachar
The Padres' great wealth of arms is scattered pretty evenly throughout the system, which means that there are a couple of true impact arms knocking on the door right now even after 2016 draftees Eric Lauer (first round from Kent State) and Joey Lucchesi (fourth round from Southeast Missouri State) graduated in 2018. 21 year old Logan Allen, who came over from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade of 2015, has dominated the minor leagues and put up a huge season in 2018, going 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 151/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.2 innings at AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondaries, though only his changeup can be considered a swing and miss pitch. Instead of blowing the ball by hitters, Allen finds success by mixing his pitches and maintaining his stuff deep into ballgames, giving him a pretty clear #3 or #4 starter projection with fairly low risk. He should be able to hold down a major league rotation spot for most or all of 2019. 24 year old Cal Quantrill is a Canadian righty out of Stanford who was a first round pick (eighth overall in 2016), though he had an up and down 2018 and posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 123/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings between San Antonio and El Paso. Quantrill, like Allen, is a pitchability guy who only throws in the low to mid 90's but who adds a full array of secondaries headlined by a great changeup. He has better command than Allen but has less deception in his delivery and doesn't get as many strikeouts, and that command does come and go. When he's on, though, he looks fantastic; on June 3rd, he struck out ten over seven shutout innings against the AA Springfield Cardinals, allowing just five baserunners along the way. Quantrill is going to need his command to be "on" more than it's "off" in the majors, where he could be a very solid #3 starter but who could slip back to a #4 or a #5 if he can't get more consistent. To wrap up the Allen/Quantrill comparison: Allen is almost two and a half years younger than Quantrill and is consistently average with his command, while Quantrill fluctuates anywhere from average to above average in that regard. However, as a lefty, Allen gets more deception on his stuff and can get away with that average command. 23 year old Jacob Nix, who was caught up in the Brady Aiken draft mess of 2014 with the Astros, was the Padres' third round pick (86th overall) in 2016 and pitched well in the high minors in 2018, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 44/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at San Antonio and El Paso. However, he struggled in a brief MLB call-up with a 7.02 ERA and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings, so he'll try again in 2019. Nix is a 6'4" righty with a straight, low to mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a decent changeup, and he does a very good job of throwing strikes in general. Sometimes he can be a little bit too much over the plate, which led to him allowing eight home runs in nine major league starts in 2018, but a few further tweaks in his command could make him a solid #4 starter in the near future. Moving down a level, 23 year old Chris Paddack had as big a bounce-back season as you can have in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 120/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio a year after missing all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddack now has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 230/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 177.2 career minor league innings since being drafted in the eighth round out of an Austin-area high school by the Marlins in 2015, as he has showcased exceptional command to go along with a low 90's fastball, a mediocre curveball, and a fantastic changeup that serves as a true swing and miss pitch. Paddack has some stiff competition for rotation spots to deal with in the near future, so the Padres can be patient with him and help him build his stamina back up after throwing just 132.1 innings from 2016-2018, but after that he could be a very useful mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Lake Bachar posted a 4.68 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an 80/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at Lake Elsinore and San Antonio, though those stats don't count two strong appearances in the AA Texas League playoffs (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K). His stuff isn't great, but he has a full array of secondary pitches and commands everything decently well, also getting good deception with his high three quarters arm angle. He's unlikely to stick in the rotation in a system as deep as this one, but he could be a useful long reliever in the near future.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Michel Baez, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Andres Munoz, RHP Reggie Lawson, LHP Nick Margevicius, and RHP David Bednar
Behind the group knocking on the door to the MLB, the Padres have another wave of talent who just came through High A. 23 year old Michel Baez was signed out of Cuba for $3 million two offseasons ago, and after a dominant stateside debut in 2017 (2.54 ERA, 89/10 K/BB), he continued the good work in 2018 by posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio. He's a huge guy at 6'8", which makes his mid 90's fastball and full arsenal of secondaries very difficult to square up. He hasn't been the most consistent pitcher, sometimes losing his command and seeing his fastball dip into the low 90's, but Baez has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter with just a few more tweaks in his mechanics. Otherwise, he should fare just fine as an impact reliever if he can't get more consistent with his stuff. 20 year old Adrian Morejon is another Cuban who signed for $11 million back in 2016, and he had a strong season by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at Lake Elsinore (with one rehab appearance in complex ball). He's a very different pitcher from Baez in that he's just six feet tall and left handed, but he still brings the heat with a mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a couple of changeups, and he has been more consistent with his stuff despite being three years younger. Durability is an issue for a smaller guy like Morejon, and the missed time in 2018 didn't help alleviate those worries. If healthy, Morejon looks like a potential #2 starter, but that's always a big "if" and we'll have to see how he fares in 2019. Further durability issues could push him to the bullpen, where he should be very strong. 20 year old Andres Munoz had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 0.73 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings between short season Tri-City and San Antonio, managing to pitch very well in AA as a teenager. He's purely a reliever and is an absolute flamethrower, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and adding an up and coming slider, though he struggles with control and needs to prove his durability as well. Now healthy in 2019, Munoz has a chance to improve that control, and if he can further improve his slider (he'll be just 20 for all of 2019), he has a shot to be a major league closer. 21 year old Reggie Lawson survived the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, posting a 4.69 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 117/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" righty isn't of the same prospect caliber as Baez and Morejon, but he shows a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball to go along with some durability and projectability, giving him the chance to be a #4 starter if he can improve his command a little. If not, his fastball/curveball combination should play well in the bullpen anyways, and he'll get a crack at AA in 2019. 22 year old Nick Margevicius raised some eyebrows in 2018 with his strong season, posting a 3.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 146/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He's a 6'5" lefty with great command, and even though he barely sits in the low 90's with his fastball, he gets plenty of strikeouts by getting ahead in the count and dropping his great changeup on opposing hitters. The Padres have had great success with Chris Paddack, the right handed version of Margevicius, and will hope for more of the same here. Lastly, 24 year old David Bednar is purely a relief prospect, but he pitched well enough in the California League to warrant some attention with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings at Lake Elsinore. He misses bats with a mid 90's fastball, though his secondaries and command are currently behind and he doesn't have the same upside as Munoz. The curveball gets swings and misses and improved command in 2019 could put him on the fast track to the majors, where he could be a strong middle reliever.
Low Minors Pitchers: LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Luis Patino, LHP Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Henry Henry, and RHP Anderson Espinoza
This group of pitchers is farther away, but it's still a great set of potential impact starters who give the Padres yet another wave of pitching sitting in the minors. 20 year old MacKenzie Gore, the third overall pick of the 2017 draft from high school in Southeastern North Carolina, had an up-and-down but overall successful transition to full season ball in 2018 by posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne. Gore put up some of the craziest high school pitching numbers ever seen at Whiteville High School, going 33-1 with a 0.11 ERA and 332 strikeouts in 157.2 innings, over which he allowed just two runs. Coming from a small school in rural North Carolina, it's understandable that Gore was a bit raw in his first taste of pro ball, and blisters made it difficult for him to keep his stuff sharp in 2018. However, when healthy, Gore checks every box for what you want in a future ace; he's a 6'3" lefty with no weaknesses, tossing a low to mid 90's fastball and adding a full array of secondaries – all of which flash plus – that he can command well for a young pitcher, and his competitiveness and work ethic are considered top of the scale. Healthy in 2019, Gore will have a chance to break out and move toward his ultimate ceiling of being a true ace. 19 year old Luis Patino was signed for just $120,000 out of Colombia in 2016, but he has been fantastic ever since joining pro ball and posted a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings at Fort Wayne in 2018, pitching the whole season at 18 years old. The teenager has a mid 90's fastball and a pair of great breaking balls, enabling him to miss plenty of bats even against older competition. He commands everything pretty well for a pitcher his age, and he's only getting stronger. Eight months younger than Gore and already boasting a better track record, Patino has true ace potential and could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a successful transition to High A in 2019. 20 year old Osvaldo Hernandez had a quiet breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.81 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.2 innings with Fort Wayne. Hernandez has a low 90's fastball and just decent offspeed stuff (though his curveball is currently his best pitch) but controls the strike zone and mixes his pitches well enough to shut down opposing offenses, at least in Class A. The six foot lefty will have to continue to hit the corners if he wants to succeed at the higher levels, but he has the makings of a back-end starter down the road. 19 year old Ryan Weathers was the Padres' first round pick (seventh overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2018, and he quickly responded by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an 18/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.1 innings between complex ball and Fort Wayne. Despite his age, Weathers is actually more about command and durability than about pure upside, as he's a physically developed, 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup. He should be a quick mover as far as high school pitchers go because he already has a pretty clear idea of how to pitch and use what he has, and he has mid-rotation upside with less risk than the typical high school arm. 20 year old Henry Henry has a great name but is also a solid pitching prospect, having posted a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 55/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Fort Wayne in 2018. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a solid curveball, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he's not wild and he can hit his spots. Adding some good weight could get him into the mid 90's with his fastball and make him a very interesting rotation candidate down the line, though he still has a good shot to be a solid fastball/curveball reliever. Lastly, 20 year old Anderson Espinoza missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons with Tommy John surgery, but the Padres have their fingers crossed that he's healthy and ready to get back to working towards his immense upside in 2019. He's a skinny six footer with a mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a very advanced changeup for his age, generally commanding everything well and looking like a future ace on his best days. However, we haven't seen him in game action since 2016, so it's hard to know exactly what his stuff will look like this season, but he turns just 21 during spring training and still has plenty of time to get back on track. Durability is definitely a concern given his size and injury history, so if he can't hold up in a rotation, he has high upside as a hard throwing reliever as well.
Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA San Antonio Missions*, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, Short Season Tri-City Dust Devils, and complex level AZL and DSL Padres
*AA affiliate will move from San Antonio, TX to Amarillo, TX in 2019
The Headliner: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
20 year old Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis, besides having a great birthday that also happens to be mine (January 2nd crew), is the only other player that can really give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a run for his money as the top prospect in the game right now. As a teenager in 2018, Tatis slashed .286/.355/.507 with 16 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA San Antonio, putting up great numbers despite watching his season end with a thumb injury in July. He's already a complete player who does everything well, showing power, the ability to get on base, speed, and strong defense at shortstop, all at a very young age. I'm not concerned about the higher than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio because Tatis was just 19 years old in AA, and he barrels the ball up consistently enough that it won't be a problem in the majors in 2019. Set to play all of this season at just 20 years old, he should be a strong candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he looks to fulfill his projections as a 20+ homer bat with high on-base percentages, double digit stolen bases, and great defense: a perennial All Star projection.
High Minors Hitters: 2B Luis Urias, C/OF Francisco Mejia, 3B Jason Vosler, OF Josh Naylor, C/1B Austin Allen, OF Buddy Reed, and 3B Hudson Potts
The Padres are deeper in pitching, but I'll start with the upper level hitters behind Fernando Tatis Jr. who are set to make an impact in the very near future. 21 year old Luis Urias slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight home runs and a 109/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA El Paso, then slashed .208/.264/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 major league games. At 5'9", he doesn't hit for much power, but Urias is a steady singles hitter who draws plenty of walks, avoids strikeouts for the most part, and overall projects to post high on-base percentages. He should be a steady producer for years to come. 23 year old Francisco Mejia is a very well known prospect, having been the top prospect in the Indians' system before he was traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand trade. Mejia slashed .293/.338/.471 with 14 home runs and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AAA, also slashing .179/.258/.375 with three home runs and a 19/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 major league games. Mejia has high upside but also comes with plenty of questions, as he is a very solid hitter who can consistently barrel the ball up and spray deep line drives and home runs all over the park, though he is unproven at the major league level despite all his success in the high minors. Defensively, the Padres continue to be hopeful that he can stick as a catcher with his cannon arm, but his defense overall is just so-so. There is a chance he ends up in the outfield or even at third base, where he is also just so-so, but his potential for 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages means that the Padres will be very patient. 25 year old Jason Vosler, who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, looks like more of a bench bat after slashing .251/.330/.467 with 23 home runs and a 149/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA and AAA in 2018. He has power and draws a lot of walks, but he likely won't hit for enough average to ever warrant a starting position, especially with Manny Machado now blocking him at third base. He's an average defensive infielder and will warrant consideration as a power hitting pinch hitter. Dropping down a level, 21 year old Josh Naylor projects to be an impact hitter at the major league level. In 2018, Naylor slashed .297/.383/.447 with 17 home runs and a 69/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA San Antonio, showing some power and great plate discipline. A stocky guy at 5'11" and 250 pounds, you'd expect more power out of Naylor, but his keen eye at the plate and high on-base percentages make up for that and he should hit his way into the starting lineup down the line. Defensively, he doesn't provide much value, playing an average first base and a mediocre left field, but at this point the bat looks like it is enough to carry him. 25 year old Austin Allen finds himself in a somewhat similar position, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .290/.351/.506 with 22 home runs and a 97/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at San Antonio. While Naylor has better plate discipline, the 6'2" Allen has shown more power at this point (keep in mind that Naylor is nearly three and a half years younger) and has the defensive edge because he *might* be able to stick as a catcher. His defense there is mediocre and he just turned 25 in January, but the Padres still hope to refine him to the point where he is playable back there and his power can help him be a bat-first catcher. If he is forced to move to first base, he's still a strong enough hitter that he should be able to stick on a roster and even earn some starts. 23 year old Buddy Reed has had a roller coaster ride for a career, looking like a potential top ten pick for the 2016 draft before an up and down junior season at Florida knocked him to the second round (48th overall), then he struggled in pro ball in both 2016 (.254/.326/.337) and 2017 (.234/.290/.396). However, he turned it around in 2018, slashing .271/.319/.435 with 13 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. He was much better at hitter-friendly Lake Elsinore (.324/.371/.549) than he was at much more pitcher-friendly San Antonio (.179/.227/.235), which raises questions about his ability to hit at the major league level, but he still retains high upside despite turning 24 in April. Reed is exceptionally fast and plays great defense in center field, plus his wiry frame helps him hit for some power at the plate. However, if he wants to end up more than just a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement, he really has to improve his plate discipline in a hurry. Lastly, 20 year old Hudson Potts was actually the Padres first round pick (24th overall, then known as Hudson Sanchez) out of a Dallas area high school in that same 2016 draft, and he slashed .260/.335/.455 with 19 home runs and a 145/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games between Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Like Reed, he was much better at Lake Elsinore (.281/.350/.498) than he was at San Antonio (.154/.258/.231), though being three and a half years younger does buy him slack. He has some power and at 6'3", he looks like he could grow into more, and while he strikes out a lot, he has been young for the levels he has played at and does possess an advanced bat. Potts isn't a great defender at third base but isn't a liability either, and he is somewhat of a sleeper in the deep system he plays in. Watch for Potts to draw more attention in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Edward Olivares, OF Tirso Ornelas, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, C Luis Campusano, SS Xavier Edwards, and 2B Tucupita Marcano
The best hitters in the Padres' system are up near the top, but they have a whole group of young guys in the low and mid minors that could break out and join that group in 2019. 22 year old Edward Olivares, acquired from the Blue Jays for Yangervis Solarte last offseason, looks like a solid fourth outfielder after slashing .277/.321/.429 with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 102/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at hitter-friendly High A Lake Elsinore in 2018. Olivares is a speedy centerfielder known for his great outfield defense, adding a very good feel for the barrel and plenty of gap power at the plate to round out his skill set. Overall, the bat is likely just a little too light if he wants to be a long-term starter in the majors, but with the ability to post solid on-base percentages and quite a few extra base hits, he should be a very useful fourth outfielder. 18 year old Tirso Ornelas, who grew up right across the border from San Diego in Tijuana, burst onto the scene in 2018 by slashing .252/.341/.392 with eight home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games at Class A Fort Wayne. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but Ornelas just turned 18 right before the start of the season and managed very respectable numbers against full season competition (most notably an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate). In addition to his very mature approach at the plate, he has room to grow into more power at 6'3" and is a prime candidate for an offensive breakout in the hitter-friendly High A California League in 2019. Defensively, the teenager should be a solid right fielder. 19 year old Jeisson Rosario has a similar profile, having slashed .271/.368/.353 with three home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 108/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. He's also very young, just five months older than Ornelas, and he also has a very patient approach at the plate that allows him to draw plenty of walks. He might strike out a bit more and he doesn't have quite as much power, but he's faster and also has an advanced bat for his age. Ornelas is the better prospect at this point but it will be interesting to see Rosario develop alongside him in the outfield. 19 year old Gabriel Arias slashed .240/.302/.352 with six home runs and a 149/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games with Fort Wayne, and like Ornelas and Rosario, he was extremely young for the level. While his bat isn't as developed as Ornelas's or even Rosario's, he's the best defender in the group with a slick glove and a strong arm at shortstop, buying his bat plenty of time to develop. He has some gap power at this point and isn't afraid to draw a walk, so he has the building blocks to eventually build himself into a starting-caliber shortstop down the road. (though Fernando Tatis Jr. might have something to say about that). 20 year old Luis Campusano was a second round pick (39th overall) out of an Augusta, Georgia high school in 2017, then he slashed .288/.345/.365 with three home runs and a 43/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. Known for his power as a high schooler, that hasn't quite translated into pro ball, but catchers take longer to develop and his .345 on-base percentage was still encouraging. He's a work in progress defensively but shows the tools to be above average in that regard, and if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently, he could give the Padres a third legitimate catcher behind Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen. Moving farther down in the system, the Padres have a couple of short season bats to replace the big crew graduating from Class A in 2018. 19 year old Xavier Edwards was a competitive balance pick (38th overall) in 2018 out of a South Florida high school, and he slashed .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases and a 25/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and short season Tri-City in his pro debut. Those numbers were exactly in line with what was expected from Edwards, as he brings great plate discipline and feel for the barrel along with lots of speed and defensive value. Because he lacks power, it's important that he continues to spray line drives into the gaps and draw his share of walks. Defensively, he is so-so at shortstop but would be a well above average defender at second base. Overall, he has the makings of a prototypical leadoff man. Lastly, 19 year old Tucupita Marcano, who was apparently named for his hometown of Tucupita, Venezuela, slashed .366/.450/.438 with one home run, 15 stolen bases, and a 16/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in complex ball and at Tri-City. Marcano tore up the complex level Arizona League (.395/.497/.444) but was also strong in short season ball (.314/.355/.429) despite not turning 19 until after the season, showing advanced plate discipline and the ability to make consistent hard contact. He's a decent middle infielder who may be forced from shortstop to second base, but with his potential to post very high on-base percentages, his defense may not matter and 2019 could be the year he really establishes himself in this system.
High Minors Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Jacob Nix, RHP Chris Paddack, and RHP Lake Bachar
The Padres' great wealth of arms is scattered pretty evenly throughout the system, which means that there are a couple of true impact arms knocking on the door right now even after 2016 draftees Eric Lauer (first round from Kent State) and Joey Lucchesi (fourth round from Southeast Missouri State) graduated in 2018. 21 year old Logan Allen, who came over from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade of 2015, has dominated the minor leagues and put up a huge season in 2018, going 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 151/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.2 innings at AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondaries, though only his changeup can be considered a swing and miss pitch. Instead of blowing the ball by hitters, Allen finds success by mixing his pitches and maintaining his stuff deep into ballgames, giving him a pretty clear #3 or #4 starter projection with fairly low risk. He should be able to hold down a major league rotation spot for most or all of 2019. 24 year old Cal Quantrill is a Canadian righty out of Stanford who was a first round pick (eighth overall in 2016), though he had an up and down 2018 and posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 123/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings between San Antonio and El Paso. Quantrill, like Allen, is a pitchability guy who only throws in the low to mid 90's but who adds a full array of secondaries headlined by a great changeup. He has better command than Allen but has less deception in his delivery and doesn't get as many strikeouts, and that command does come and go. When he's on, though, he looks fantastic; on June 3rd, he struck out ten over seven shutout innings against the AA Springfield Cardinals, allowing just five baserunners along the way. Quantrill is going to need his command to be "on" more than it's "off" in the majors, where he could be a very solid #3 starter but who could slip back to a #4 or a #5 if he can't get more consistent. To wrap up the Allen/Quantrill comparison: Allen is almost two and a half years younger than Quantrill and is consistently average with his command, while Quantrill fluctuates anywhere from average to above average in that regard. However, as a lefty, Allen gets more deception on his stuff and can get away with that average command. 23 year old Jacob Nix, who was caught up in the Brady Aiken draft mess of 2014 with the Astros, was the Padres' third round pick (86th overall) in 2016 and pitched well in the high minors in 2018, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 44/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at San Antonio and El Paso. However, he struggled in a brief MLB call-up with a 7.02 ERA and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings, so he'll try again in 2019. Nix is a 6'4" righty with a straight, low to mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a decent changeup, and he does a very good job of throwing strikes in general. Sometimes he can be a little bit too much over the plate, which led to him allowing eight home runs in nine major league starts in 2018, but a few further tweaks in his command could make him a solid #4 starter in the near future. Moving down a level, 23 year old Chris Paddack had as big a bounce-back season as you can have in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 120/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio a year after missing all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddack now has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 230/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 177.2 career minor league innings since being drafted in the eighth round out of an Austin-area high school by the Marlins in 2015, as he has showcased exceptional command to go along with a low 90's fastball, a mediocre curveball, and a fantastic changeup that serves as a true swing and miss pitch. Paddack has some stiff competition for rotation spots to deal with in the near future, so the Padres can be patient with him and help him build his stamina back up after throwing just 132.1 innings from 2016-2018, but after that he could be a very useful mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Lake Bachar posted a 4.68 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an 80/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at Lake Elsinore and San Antonio, though those stats don't count two strong appearances in the AA Texas League playoffs (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K). His stuff isn't great, but he has a full array of secondary pitches and commands everything decently well, also getting good deception with his high three quarters arm angle. He's unlikely to stick in the rotation in a system as deep as this one, but he could be a useful long reliever in the near future.
Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Michel Baez, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Andres Munoz, RHP Reggie Lawson, LHP Nick Margevicius, and RHP David Bednar
Behind the group knocking on the door to the MLB, the Padres have another wave of talent who just came through High A. 23 year old Michel Baez was signed out of Cuba for $3 million two offseasons ago, and after a dominant stateside debut in 2017 (2.54 ERA, 89/10 K/BB), he continued the good work in 2018 by posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio. He's a huge guy at 6'8", which makes his mid 90's fastball and full arsenal of secondaries very difficult to square up. He hasn't been the most consistent pitcher, sometimes losing his command and seeing his fastball dip into the low 90's, but Baez has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter with just a few more tweaks in his mechanics. Otherwise, he should fare just fine as an impact reliever if he can't get more consistent with his stuff. 20 year old Adrian Morejon is another Cuban who signed for $11 million back in 2016, and he had a strong season by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at Lake Elsinore (with one rehab appearance in complex ball). He's a very different pitcher from Baez in that he's just six feet tall and left handed, but he still brings the heat with a mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a couple of changeups, and he has been more consistent with his stuff despite being three years younger. Durability is an issue for a smaller guy like Morejon, and the missed time in 2018 didn't help alleviate those worries. If healthy, Morejon looks like a potential #2 starter, but that's always a big "if" and we'll have to see how he fares in 2019. Further durability issues could push him to the bullpen, where he should be very strong. 20 year old Andres Munoz had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 0.73 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings between short season Tri-City and San Antonio, managing to pitch very well in AA as a teenager. He's purely a reliever and is an absolute flamethrower, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and adding an up and coming slider, though he struggles with control and needs to prove his durability as well. Now healthy in 2019, Munoz has a chance to improve that control, and if he can further improve his slider (he'll be just 20 for all of 2019), he has a shot to be a major league closer. 21 year old Reggie Lawson survived the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, posting a 4.69 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 117/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" righty isn't of the same prospect caliber as Baez and Morejon, but he shows a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball to go along with some durability and projectability, giving him the chance to be a #4 starter if he can improve his command a little. If not, his fastball/curveball combination should play well in the bullpen anyways, and he'll get a crack at AA in 2019. 22 year old Nick Margevicius raised some eyebrows in 2018 with his strong season, posting a 3.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 146/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He's a 6'5" lefty with great command, and even though he barely sits in the low 90's with his fastball, he gets plenty of strikeouts by getting ahead in the count and dropping his great changeup on opposing hitters. The Padres have had great success with Chris Paddack, the right handed version of Margevicius, and will hope for more of the same here. Lastly, 24 year old David Bednar is purely a relief prospect, but he pitched well enough in the California League to warrant some attention with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings at Lake Elsinore. He misses bats with a mid 90's fastball, though his secondaries and command are currently behind and he doesn't have the same upside as Munoz. The curveball gets swings and misses and improved command in 2019 could put him on the fast track to the majors, where he could be a strong middle reliever.
Low Minors Pitchers: LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Luis Patino, LHP Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Henry Henry, and RHP Anderson Espinoza
This group of pitchers is farther away, but it's still a great set of potential impact starters who give the Padres yet another wave of pitching sitting in the minors. 20 year old MacKenzie Gore, the third overall pick of the 2017 draft from high school in Southeastern North Carolina, had an up-and-down but overall successful transition to full season ball in 2018 by posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne. Gore put up some of the craziest high school pitching numbers ever seen at Whiteville High School, going 33-1 with a 0.11 ERA and 332 strikeouts in 157.2 innings, over which he allowed just two runs. Coming from a small school in rural North Carolina, it's understandable that Gore was a bit raw in his first taste of pro ball, and blisters made it difficult for him to keep his stuff sharp in 2018. However, when healthy, Gore checks every box for what you want in a future ace; he's a 6'3" lefty with no weaknesses, tossing a low to mid 90's fastball and adding a full array of secondaries – all of which flash plus – that he can command well for a young pitcher, and his competitiveness and work ethic are considered top of the scale. Healthy in 2019, Gore will have a chance to break out and move toward his ultimate ceiling of being a true ace. 19 year old Luis Patino was signed for just $120,000 out of Colombia in 2016, but he has been fantastic ever since joining pro ball and posted a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings at Fort Wayne in 2018, pitching the whole season at 18 years old. The teenager has a mid 90's fastball and a pair of great breaking balls, enabling him to miss plenty of bats even against older competition. He commands everything pretty well for a pitcher his age, and he's only getting stronger. Eight months younger than Gore and already boasting a better track record, Patino has true ace potential and could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a successful transition to High A in 2019. 20 year old Osvaldo Hernandez had a quiet breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.81 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.2 innings with Fort Wayne. Hernandez has a low 90's fastball and just decent offspeed stuff (though his curveball is currently his best pitch) but controls the strike zone and mixes his pitches well enough to shut down opposing offenses, at least in Class A. The six foot lefty will have to continue to hit the corners if he wants to succeed at the higher levels, but he has the makings of a back-end starter down the road. 19 year old Ryan Weathers was the Padres' first round pick (seventh overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2018, and he quickly responded by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an 18/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.1 innings between complex ball and Fort Wayne. Despite his age, Weathers is actually more about command and durability than about pure upside, as he's a physically developed, 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup. He should be a quick mover as far as high school pitchers go because he already has a pretty clear idea of how to pitch and use what he has, and he has mid-rotation upside with less risk than the typical high school arm. 20 year old Henry Henry has a great name but is also a solid pitching prospect, having posted a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 55/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Fort Wayne in 2018. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a solid curveball, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he's not wild and he can hit his spots. Adding some good weight could get him into the mid 90's with his fastball and make him a very interesting rotation candidate down the line, though he still has a good shot to be a solid fastball/curveball reliever. Lastly, 20 year old Anderson Espinoza missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons with Tommy John surgery, but the Padres have their fingers crossed that he's healthy and ready to get back to working towards his immense upside in 2019. He's a skinny six footer with a mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a very advanced changeup for his age, generally commanding everything well and looking like a future ace on his best days. However, we haven't seen him in game action since 2016, so it's hard to know exactly what his stuff will look like this season, but he turns just 21 during spring training and still has plenty of time to get back on track. Durability is definitely a concern given his size and injury history, so if he can't hold up in a rotation, he has high upside as a hard throwing reliever as well.
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