First 5 rounds: Bubba Thompson (1-26), Chris Seise (1-29), Hans Crouse (2-66), Matt Whatley (3-104), Ryan Dease (4-134), Jake Latz (5-164)
Also notable: Noah Bremer (6-194), Tanner Gardner (9-284), Blaine Knight (29-884), Jordan Anderson (40-1214)
Everybody knows the Rangers love upside and athleticism, and that's exactly what they got here. They went the high school route with their first three picks, and the three they picked fit the upside/risk bill well. Throughout the draft, they mixed high school and college, hitters and pitchers, not leaning in any particular direction.
1-26: OF Bubba Thompson (my rank: 24)
Thompson exactly matches the stereotypical Rangers pick. He's a high school centerfielder from Mobile, Alabama with a cannon arm and the projection to be an above average hitter, though he is raw after splitting his time between baseball and football. As a quarterback, he had scholarship offers from Tennessee and Ole Miss, so you can tell the kind of athleticism we're talking here with Thompson. He doesn't have the most powerful bat, but he should be able to produce 15-20 home runs per year while getting on base at a good clip and stealing more than a few bags. The five-tool upside is there, but as a high schooler, he carries some significant risk, even if the risk sin't as high as with a guy like Quentin Holmes or Jo Adell. Thompson signed for $2.1 million, which is $345,100 under slot.
1-29: SS Chris Seise (my rank: 56)
Seise is a player in a similar mold as Thompson. An athletic shortstop from a high school near Orlando, Seise made significant improvements with his offense this year and could be an average hitter in the big leagues. Seise is good enough defensively to play shortstop for now, but he'll have to work to remain there. He could be a similar player to current Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus, with more power but less speed. Seise signed for $2 million, which is $238,900 under slot.
2-66: RHP Hans Crouse (my rank: 35)
Hans Crouse is basically the pitching version of Thompson and Seise. The 6'5" right hander is very skinny and has lots of room for more good weight, but he already throws in the mid 90's with a breaking ball that could be a plus pitch in time. On the flip side, he has below average command, and the breaking ball is somewhat stuck between a curveball and a slider. When he keeps it down in the zone, it has hard slider break and can miss bats, but when it's up, it's very hittable. Crouse also has a lower arm slot and short arm action, which makes me believe he may never have average command, and that it might be tough for him to cut it as a starter. I see him as a reliever, albeit one with high upside that could hit 100 MPH in the bullpen down the road. Crouse signed for $1.45 million, which is $523,500 above slot.
3-104: C Matt Whatley (my rank: 89)
Whatley, a college catcher from Oral Roberts University, is a very different prospect from the first three players. He's a high-floor catcher who projects as a back-up at the major league level, and he's good enough defensively to stick back there. After two big seasons as a freshman and as a sophomore at Oral Roberts (.359/.446/.545 combined), but had a tough summer on the Cape (.198/.271/.279) and slumped somewhat as a junior (.302/.446/.509). A solid defender, he has plus power potential but may struggle with contact at the next level because his head changes level with his swing. Whatley signed for an at-slot bonus of $517,100.
5-164: LHP Jake Latz (unranked)
Now here is an interesting pick. Latz missed his freshman year at LSU with elbow issues, then pitched just 8.1 innings during his sophomore year in 2016 before transferring to Kent State for his junior year. Because of NCAA transfer rules, he couldn't pitch this year, but in his bullpen sessions, he's shown the potential to be a starter going through the minor leagues with his full arsenal. He's a 6'2" lefty, and teams love left handed pitchers. Latz signed for $386,100, which is $97,600 above slot.
29-884: RHP Blaine Knight (my rank: 61)
Knight is a draft-eligible sophomore at Arkansas, who has really elevated his stock with two solid years for the Razorbacks, going 10-5 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, striking out 142 in 139 innings. Knight probably won't sign here, but he's a very skinny, 6'3" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal, though none of his secondaries grade out as plus. He has a chance to be a big league starter, but he'll have to add weight and prove his durability.
Others: 4th rounder Ryan Dease is a high school pitcher from Florida, one who throws his fastball around 90 but has the athleticism to add velocity. He's a high risk, high ceiling pick with his lack of secondaries, and he hasn't signed yet. 6th rounder Noah Bremer comes from the University of Washington, where he had a very successful three year career, going 16-11 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, striking out 205 in 284 innings. He's hard to peg going forward, coming in with a fastball around 90, but he brings a solid curveball and decent command. 9th rounder Tanner Gardner is another familiar name for college baseball fans, having been a big part of Texas Tech's run to the College World Series in 2016 (.379/.484/.549, 3 HR), but wasn't quite as great in 2017 (.305/.395/.485, 5 HR). He projects best as a fourth or fifth outfielder going forward. 40th rounder Jordan Anderson almost certainly won't sign and will instead attend Mississippi State, where he could blossom into a high pick in 2020. Anderson has all the tools, but he has struggled to put them together. His bat isn't in the zone for long and he may struggle to hit for contact even in college, but hopefully the higher level coaching can steer him right.
Showing posts with label Matt Whatley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matt Whatley. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Catchers
First Tier: Nobody
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)