These awards are based on how I would assign them, not how I believe they will end up. This follows the MVP and Cy Young awards article.
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: DH Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros)
Stat Line: 27 HR, 78 RBI, .313/.412/.655, 0 SB, 178 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR in 87 games
In order to win the Rookie of the Year Award while playing just 87 games and DH'ing in most of them, you have to hit pretty well. Well, Yordan Alvarez hit pretty well, slashing .313/.412/.655 with 27 home runs and 26 doubles, and his 178 wRC+ would have been second in baseball only to Mike Trout's 180 if he had qualified. It started when the then-21 year old homered in four of his first five career games, and he never slowed down from there with five multi-homer efforts (including a three homer game) in his abbreviated rookie season. Perhaps as impressively for a rookie power hitter, he hit .313 with a .412 on-base percentage. The numbers get even crazier when you include the minors; between AAA Round Rock and the majors, he cracked 50 home runs, drove in 149, and slashed .325/.424/.690 over 143 games.
Runner-up: LHP John Means (Baltimore Orioles)
Stat Line: 12-11, 3.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121/38 K/BB in 155 innings
A combination of a boring name, lack of big prospect status, and a terrible team means that it was hard to notice John Means. Still, he quietly put up one of the better pitching seasons in the American League, his 3.60 ERA being a product of pitching in the tough AL East in a hitter-friendly home park with a juiced ball. For reference, his 77 ERA-, which adjusts for home park and league average, put him in the same neighborhood as Walker Buehler and Luis Castillo. Means started off strong and actually carried a 2.50 ERA through the first half, and while he regressed in the second half with a 4.85 ERA, the final product was still an extremely productive season with a poor defense behind him in a very hitter-friendly environment. His most impressive start of the season came on May 6th, just his fifth career start, when he limited the Boston Red Sox to one run on three hits, no walks, and four strikeouts over seven innings.
Honorable mention: UTIL Luis Arraez (Minnesota Twins)
Stat Line: 4 HR, 28 RBI, .334/.399/.439, 2 SB, 125 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR in 92 games
You could make a very strong case for Eloy Jimenez or Brandon Lowe here, and I was very tempted to choose them, but Luis Arraez was so darn impressive that I just had to put him third. Turning 22 right at the beginning of the season, Arraez was considered more of a utility prospect and started the season at AA Pensacola, but he hit .342 there and earned a promotion to the majors in May, slashing .375/.467/.583 in a small sample size before getting sent down to AAA Rochester. However, after hitting .348 there, he was called back up for good in June and picked up right where he left off, and he turned out to be one of the game's most consistent hitters. Of the 85 in which he had at least two at bats, he had at least one hit in 70 of them, putting together two double-digit hitting streaks along the way. Additionally, in the 90 games in which he had at least one plate appearance, he was on base in 79 of them. His .334 batting average and .399 on-base percentage provided crucial balance to a Twins team that set the single season record for home runs, but he was just as important on defense, filling in wherever he was needed and appearing in 49 games at second base, 17 at third base, eight at shortstop, and 21 in left field. In a year where the home run was king, Arraez was one of the more unconventional players.
Others
2B Brandon Lowe (TB, 17 HR, .270/.336/.514, 125 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR)
LF Eloy Jimenez (CWS, 31 HR, .267/.315/.513, 116 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
RHP Zach Plesac (CLE, 3.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 88/40/115.2 K/BB/IP)
RF Oscar Mercado (CLE, 15 HR, .269/.318/.443, 15 SB, 95 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR)
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (15 HR, .272/.339/.433, 105 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: 1B Pete Alonso (New York Mets)
Stat Line: 53 HR, 120 RBI, .260/.358/.583, 1 SB, 143 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR in 161 games
What if Yordan Alvarez, but over 161 games instead of 87? Alright, while Pete Alonso wasn't quite as good as Alvarez on a per-game basis, this was still a Judgian rookie year. You could say that Alonso was just taking part in a league-wide homer barrage with the juiced balls, but he still led all of MLB with 53 home runs while breaking Aaron Judge's rookie record. He hit at least six home runs in each month (a 36 home run pace at worst) while slugging at least .566 in every month except July, where he slumped to just a .177/.333/.430 line. Still, he turned that slump around with a strong August (.283/.372/.566) then crushed eleven home runs in September to close out the year. His season-long homer barrage included four multi-homer games, an August stretch with home runs in four consecutive games, and two additional streaks with homers in three consecutive games. Oh yeah, and while he was slumping in July, he won the Home Run Derby as a rookie. Not too shabby.
Runner-up: RHP Mike Soroka (Atlanta Braves)
Stat Line: 13-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 142/41 K/BB in 174.2 innings
Alonso's homer barrage combined with all the other great rookies in the NL made it easy to miss Mike Soroka's incredible season at the top of the Braves rotation, as he actually finished third in the NL in ERA. Indeed, Soroka held down a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 25 of those. He was particularly dominant at the start of the season, heading into mid-June 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP over his first ten starts. He has incredible poise on the mound for someone who just turned 22 in August, and his strong command in a day where velocity is king have garnered him some comparisons to Greg Maddux. While Soroka has a long, long way to go to match Maddux's production, a likely top ten and possible top five finish in the NL Cy Young race is as good of a start as you can have.
Honorable mention: RHP Chris Paddack (San Diego Padres)
Stat Line: 9-7, 3.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 153/31 K/BB in 140.2 innings
It came down to a couple of Padres for this third spot, but unfortunately Fernando Tatis Jr. only playing half the season due to injuries pushes Chris Paddack just a hair ahead of him. Paddack made 26 starts and posted a 3.33 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, the latter of which would have been third in the NL and way ahead of Soroka if he had enough innings to qualify. He did slow down a bit as the season progressed, and a four start stretch in August in which he allowed 19 earned runs in 17 innings inflated his ERA from 2.78 to 3.84, but when he was on, he was one of the best pitchers in the National League, period. After he posted a 1.93 ERA in April, Pete Alonso was named the NL Rookie of the Month, and that irked Paddack enough that in his first start in May, fittingly against the Mets, he struck out eleven over 7.2 shutout innings, including Alonso twice, to lower his ERA to 1.55. That competitiveness makes him one of the most fun pitchers to watch, and it will serve him well in these upcoming winning San Diego teams.
Others
SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD, 22 HR, .317/.379/.590, 150 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR)
OF Bryan Reynolds (PIT, 16 HR, .314/.377/.503, 131 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR)
RHP Giovanny Gallegos (STL, 2.31 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 93/16/74 K/BB/IP)
CF Victor Robles (WSH, 17 HR, .255/.326/.419, 28 SB, 91 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR)
RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA, 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 151/81/197.1 K/BB/IP)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Aaron Boone (New York Yankees): 103-59 (.636 WPCT), AL East Champion
Injuries were the name of the game for the Yankees this year, and they finished the season 103-59. Wait, what? If I told you that you would get a combined 35 games out of Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jacoby Ellsbury while none of Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, and Aaron Hicks would play in more than 106 games, what would you think of the Yankee offense? What if I then added in that Luis Severino, Dellin Betances, and Jordan Montgomery would combine for 16.2 innings, and that Masahiro Tanaka would be the only pitcher to qualify for the ERA title? Somehow, Aaron Boone managed to manipulate his lineups to squeeze 103 wins of production out of this group, putting unlikely heroes like Mike Tauchman, Gio Urshela, Mike Ford, and Cameron Maybin in positions to succeed. I wasn't in the Yankee clubhouse and so I can't say for certain how it all went down, but Boone and the Yankees certainly overachieved given the rough hand they were dealt.
Runner-up: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays): 96-66 (.593 WPCT), 2nd AL Wild Card
The most recognizable names on this roster might belong to Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Kevin Kiermaier, and Tommy Pham, but that never mattered to the low budget Rays. However, that has never been a problem for the Rays, and they finally broke through in 2019 with big seasons from Pham, Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, and Yandy Diaz at the plate as well as Morton, Emilio Pagan, Yonny Chirinos, and Ryan Yarbrough on the mound. Who? Doesn't matter, Cash and the creative Rays front office made it happen. The modern day Moneyball Rays pioneered the opener, which helped get the most out of guys like Chirinos and Yarbrough, and his overall creative style got the Rays to where they are.
Others
A.J. Hinch (HOU, 107-55, .660)
Bob Melvin (OAK, 97-65, .599)
Rocco Baldelli (MIN, 101-61, .623)
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves): 97-65 (.599 WPCT), NL East Champion
This comes down to Snitker and Davey Martinez to me, and it's hard to pick one without actually having been in the clubhouse. I'll give the edge to Snitker because of the Braves' more consistent performance, but a day in the locker room with either team could change my mind. Still, Snitker managed an extremely young Braves team that included prominent contributors like Ronald Acuña Jr. (age 21), Mike Soroka (21-22), Ozzie Albies (22), Austin Riley (22), Touki Toussaint (22-23), Max Fried (25), Dansby Swanson (25), and Sean Newcomb (26) to a lot of consistent success. A mediocre bullpen also made Snitker's job harder. Even when the Nationals began to surge over the summer, the Braves kept their cool and safely kept them at arm's reach throughout, and the NL East title was never really in doubt.
Runner-up: Davey Martinez (Washington Nationals): 93-69 (.574 WPCT), 1st NL Wild Card
If it was a smooth ride for the Braves, it was anything but for the Nationals. Early season injuries to Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner, combined with poor performance all around, had the Nationals at 19-31 in May and well out of a playoff spot. Through Davey Martinez's "stay in the fight" mantra, as well as a host of other factors including the Gerardo Parra signing, the Nationals completely turned it around and finished the season on a 74-38, including their final eight games, to secure home field advantage in the NL Wild Card Game. Davey navigated an awful bullpen that never really materialized, even with the in-season additions of Daniel Hudson, Fernando Rodney, Hunter Strickland, Roenis Elias, Javy Guerra, and more, though one could say he overused guys like Sean Doolittle and Wander Suero. Perhaps no single game captured the season's essence more than on September 3rd, when the bullpen allowed five runs in the top of the ninth before the Nationals rallied back for seven runs in the bottom of the inning to win 11-10. Starting in May, the team was loose, they had fun, and most importantly, they won ballgames.
Others
Craig Counsell (MIL, 89-73, .549)
Dave Roberts (LAD, 106-56, .654)
Mike Shildt (STL, 91-71, .562)
American League Reliever of the Year
*RE24 measures how much a pitcher has reduced the opposing team's run expectancy. For example, a with a runner on first and nobody out, a team is expected to score 0.831 runs, so if a reliever gets an out to make it a runner on first with one out, that reduces the run expectancy to 0.489 and adds 0.342 (0.831-0.489) to the pitcher's RE24. A higher RE24 is therefore better.
Winner: RHP Liam Hendriks (Oakland Athletics)
Stat Line: 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 21.86 RE24, 124/21 K/BB in 85 innings
Did you realize just how good Liam Hendriks was for the A's this year, because I sure didn't. In In 75 appearances, he managed a 1.80 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 21.86 RE24 that was second only to Aaron Bummer (22.81) among American League relievers. He recorded at least one strikeout in 68 of his 75 appearances and finished the year with a 37.3% strikeout rate compared to just a 6.3% walk rate. Additionally, Hendriks got more than three outs in 21 different appearances, proving to be much more than just a one inning plug-in guy.
Runner-up: RHP Emilio Pagan (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stat Line: 2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 13.24 RE24, 96/13 K/BB in 70 innings
It might be hard to keep track of Pagan, as he's a reliever who has played for three small market green teams in three years (Mariners in 2017, A's in 2018, Rays in 2019), but he had by far his best season this year out in Tampa. Over 66 appearances, he pitched to a 2.31 ERA but only allowed one unearned run for a 2.44 RA9, and he also finished second among AL relievers (min. 25 IP) with his 0.83 WHIP, allowing just 45 hits and 13 walks in 70 innings. He struck out 36% of his opponents while walking just 4.9%, his 7.38 K/BB ratio coming in at third place in the AL (min. 25 IP). He was especially lethal against right handed hitters, striking out 63 and walking just three in 46.2 innings while pitching to a 0.71 WHIP. You may not have heard of him, but he's going to be a centerpiece in the Tampa bullpen for the foreseeable future, at least until his contract starts to get heftier.
Others:
RHP Brandon Workman (BOS, 1.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 21.05 RE24, 104/45/71.2 K/BB/IP)
RHP Yusmeiro Petit (OAK, 2.71 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 19.22 RE24, 71/10/83 K/BB/IP)
RHP Will Harris (HOU, 1.50 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 17.97 RE24, 62/14 K/BB/IP)
National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: RHP Giovanny Gallegos (St. Louis Cardinals)
Stat Line: 2.31 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 22.55 RE24, 93/16 K/BB in 74 innings
The NL RE24 leader by a long shot, Gallegos' 22.55 mark crushed second place Felipe Vazquez' 17.81 mark by nearly five runs. He struck out exactly one third of his opponents while walking just 5.7%, and he didn't allow an unearned run all season to keep his RA9 right there at 2.31. His ERA and WHIP actually stood at 4.80 and 1.13, respectively, on May 12th, but he kicked it into another gear after that slow start and went the rest of the season, 59 innings, with a 1.68 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 68/11 strikeout to walk ratio. A mutli-inning weapon, he got more than three outs in 25 of his 66 appearances, and quietly finished with one of the finest rookie seasons in the NL in a year where there were a lot of them. I know that Yankee fans are happy with Luke Voit, but St. Louis' return might actually have been better.
Runner-up: RHP Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stat Line: 2.62 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 17.09 RE24, 138/20 K/BB in 75.2 innings
Hader as a bit inconsistent due to overuse, but when he was on, which was most of the time, he was un-hittable. I mean, who he heck strikes out 47.8% of their opponents, besting their previous year's mark of 46.7%? The answer is not many, because that 47.8% mark is the fourth best of all time, trailing only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Craig Kimbrel (49.6%). Of course, Hader's mid-summer slide inflated his ERA from 1.77 to 3.02 at one point as he allowed eleven earned runs in sixteen innings from July 1st to August 17th, but after taking a week off, he was back to his old self and allowed just three runs over his final 19 innings while striking out 32 against three walks. Hader's strongest stretch came from May to June, when he allowed just two runs over 26 innings (0.69 ERA) on just six hits and eight walks (0.54 WHIP) while striking out 46.
Others
RHP Kirby Yates (SD, 1.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 14.89 RE24, 101/13/60.2 K/BB/IP)
LHP Felipe Vazquez (PIT, 1.65 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 17.81 RE24, 90/13/60 K/BB/IP)
RHP Seth Lugo (NYM, 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 11.54 RE24, 104/16/80 K/BB/IP)
Showing posts with label Yordan Alvarez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yordan Alvarez. Show all posts
Sunday, October 6, 2019
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Reviewing the Houston Astros Farm System
The Astros' player development has been something else, having produced a homegrown, World Series-winning core of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance McCullers. Even with all of those graduations, they still have a lot of depth down on the farm, led by two super prospects in Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. It's a pitching heavy system that includes lots of potential impact arms, though guys like Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Seth Beer ensure that the group of hitters is nothing to overlook.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019
The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.
High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.
Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019
The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.
High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.
Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.
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