1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville
I love this Blue Jays draft class, and I think they did it exactly right. There was no way they expected Austin Martin to still be available halfway through the top ten picks, but because the Orioles and Marlins went in an unexpected direction, that meant Martin was there for the taking. Sure, he required the second highest bonus in the draft and surely threw the Jays' draft plans out the window, but they sure aren't complaining. They smartly didn't shy away from giving Martin the big bucks, then even went slightly over slot on second rounder CJ Van Eyk and Trent Palmer as well. That's aggressive, and I like it. In the end, they over spent their bonus pool by 5%, the maximum you can spend without losing a draft pick, and it netted them a great class. I think they were very smart to do so. Yesterday, I wrote about the Mariners being stingy with their class, and they should have taken a note from what the Jays did. I guess that philosophy is why the Blue Jays' system is so much better than the Mariners', but hey, Seattle saved a few bucks I guess.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-5: SS Austin Martin, Vanderbilt (my rank: 2)
Debate raged over who the Tigers should take first overall, Austin Martin or Spencer Torkelson, but while Torkelson's prodigious bat earned him the spot, it's pretty clear that Martin is the best all-around player in the draft class. The Jacksonville native is a career .368/.474/.532 hitter with 14 home runs, 43 stolen bases, and an 82/85 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 games at Vanderbilt, facing some of the toughest pitching in college baseball. Those numbers were as high as .377/.507/.660 in 2020, as Martin continued his ruthless assault on college pitching. He has elite barrel to ball skills that enable him to drive the ball with authority around the park at will, racking up tons of extra base hits (39 doubles and four triples in addition to his 14 home runs). A very patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks which helped him post on-base percentages of .452, .486, and .507 from his freshman to junior seasons, and his elite strike zone management enabled him to strike out just twice in 16 games this year. The power is about average right now, but I wouldn't rule out above average power in the future, because he reminds me a lot of Alex Bregman at the same stage of his career. Guys who have that elite combination of zone control and barrel control inevitably run into more home runs than you'd expect, and I could see Martin as a 20-25 home run guy in addition to one who posts .400+ on-base percentages. With good speed to boot, he's the whole package offensively. Defensively, there were already questions as to whether he could stick at shortstop, but in a Blue Jays system that's absolutely loaded with infield talent, that seems less likely. He hadn't been seen much at shortstop in deference to now-Pirates prospect Ethan Paul, and this year he's bounced around the field for Vanderbilt as well. The coaching staff there was never sold on his feel for the infield, even if he is a natural athlete with speed and strength, so he could end up at third base with a little refinement for the Blue Jays or center field if they want to go the path of least resistance. No matter where he ends up defensively, he should be a net-positive so long as it isn't shortstop, and the bat will play anywhere regardless. I'm really excited to see what he does in pro ball. Martin's $7 million signing bonus was about $820,000 above slot, but the Jays did it and they didn't shy away from their later picks. Pre-draft profile here.
2-42: RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State (my rank: 42)
CJ Van Eyk was a well-known draft prospect coming out of high school in the Tampa suburbs in 2017, but he wound up at Florida State and steadily built his stock up with a very impressive career in Tallahassee: 18-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 225/83 K/BB in 176.2 innings. Van Eyk is the kind of pitcher who could have easily snuck into the back of the first round in most drafts, but this draft was so deep in college pitching that he fell to the Blue Jays in the second round. That's not to say that he should have gone higher, since the pitchers ahead of him really were legitimate arms, but it does mean the Jays can be really excited about this kind of name being available as a result. He leads off with a solid fastball in the low 90's that can reach up to 95, but his best pitch is a plus 12-6 curveball that he has tremendous feel for. Van Eyk also throws a slider and a changeup, though the fastball and curveball are his main pitches. His command is relatively inconsistent, but although it grades as clearly below average, it's not a huge red flag. He's generally at least around the zone and shows good feel for moving his curveball around the plate, so while pro hitters will be able to lay off his close misses for the most part, a few tweaks should get him up to average command. The 6'1" righty can make that work, because he gets a little bit of deception on his pitches as well, coming across his body to put tough angle on the ball. So long as he makes the necessary strides with his command, we're probably looking at a very solid #3 starter type, and even if his command remains below average, there's a good chance he can still crack it as a back-end starter. He signed for $1.8 million, which was about $30,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.
3-77: RHP Trent Palmer, Jacksonville (my rank: 143)
This marks a third straight pick with ties to the state of Florida. Austin Martin grew up in Jacksonville but left for school, CJ Van Eyk grew up in Tampa and stayed in state, and finally, Trent Palmer grew up in the Minneapolis area but headed way down south to Jacksonville for college. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of this pick, especially considering it was an over slot signing, but I see why the Blue Jays like him. Palmer is a 6'1" righty who had been solid, if unspectacular, over his first two seasons at Jacksonville, but he was very good on the Cape (1.21 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) then broke out in 2020 with a 1.30 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, and a 41/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 innings. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 96, and he adds a solid slider, curve, and changeup to go with it. Everything comes from an extremely loose arm that has enabled him to transition to starting very well, and his command has steadily improved throughout his college career, now playing close to average. He's a stockier guy who doesn't figure to add a ton of velocity, but he has enough to succeed right now and will just have to focus on sharpening his secondary pitches a little. They're pretty good right now, given his average-ish command, you'd probably want them to be a little crisper and miss more bats. If he can continue the trend he's on with his command and get to solid average or slightly above, though, he could fit in as a #4 starter. Otherwise, he could fit well in a bullpen role, where his stuff would likely tick up. Palmer signed for $847,500, which was about $41,900 above slot value.
4-106: RHP Nick Frasso, Loyola Marymount (my rank: 96)
There are a lot of question marks with Frasso, but the upside here is really exciting. He's a lanky 6'5" righty that looks uncoordinated out there on the field, but he brings lots of athleticism regardless. A standout high school basketball player in the Los Angeles suburbs, Frasso has been a steady performer at Loyola Marymount with a career 2.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 158/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.1 innings. He brings the heat with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, but the pitch plays way up because his long arms enable him to release the baseball practically right in front of the hitter's face. There is also some funk to his delivery and he puts high spin rates on the ball, meaning that its above average velocity plays more as a true plus pitch. For now, that's what the Blue Jays are buying, hoping they can develop the rest of his arsenal. His slider is his best secondary pitch, looking average overall but playing well off his fastball when he tunnels them together, and his changeup is definitely his third pitch. Despite his gangly stature and funky, jerky delivery, he's very coordinated and fills up the strike zone consistently. Now, he only threw 8.2 innings in 2020 because he missed time with forearm problems, and we're just going to have to see how that plays out. If he comes back healthy, there is some real upside. With the easy plus fastball and above average command, all he really needs to do is sharpen his secondary pitches a little bit to become a legitimate impact starter, should he prove durable enough to handle that role. If durability remains a concern or if the changeup never really comes along, he would fit great in the bullpen, so aside from injuries, I see a relatively high floor as well as some ceiling on top of it. I'm very interested to see where he goes in pro ball and I really hope he gets/stays healthy. Frasso signed for $459,000, which was $90,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
5-136: OF Zach Britton, Louisville (unranked)
This was the Blue Jays' main money saver to afford Austin Martin. Britton, of no relation to Yankees reliever Zack Britton, grew up in southeastern Indiana about 40 miles outside of Cincinnati, and he has steadily improved during his career at Louisville. He was off to a hot start in 2020, hitting .322/.446/.542 with a 12/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games, and that came on the heels of a solid run through the Cape Cod League. An average athlete at 6'1", he deploys his strength well in his whippy swing and shows solid average power while making very consistent contact. Usually, that power plays more into line drives than home runs in games, though he did hit five home runs on the Cape over the summer. The bat looks pretty interesting and should carry him to the big leagues, though he's an average defender in left field so the bat will be the sole thing pushing him up. If he can unlock a little bit more power, I could see him working his way into a starting role, though he's more likely to end up as a fourth outfielder in the long run. His $97,500 signing bonus was $312,600 below slot value.
Undrafted: IF/OF Zac Cook, Texas-Arlington (unranked)
Cook has been somewhat of a jack of all trades for the Mavericks over four years at UT Arlington, slashing .294/.395/.396 with seven home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 111/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 165 games. The Dallas-Fort Worth-area native was at his best in 2020, when he hit .321/.500/.623 with four home runs and a 13/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games. At 6'1", he has been tapping into more of his raw power while continuing to make plenty of contact, showing a bat that should play as average all around in pro ball. He's played pretty much everywhere in the field at UTA, and will likely continue to be utilized in a super utility role in pro ball. Cook is also a great student, one that got into Dartmouth and Cornell but wanted to play baseball at UTA and is currently halfway through an MBA.
Undrafted: SS Harrison Ray, Vanderbilt (unranked)
Ray has been a mainstay in the Vanderbilt lineup for four years, though he's been more solid than flashy with a .259/.343/.378 slash line, five home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 137/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 158 games. Though he only stands 5'11", he packs some punch as a hitter that usually plays as gap to gap power, and he's a good runner that can make the most of that. He's a pretty aggressive hitter that picks up his fair share of strikeouts, which has been the case throughout his career and might have limited his production a little bit. He's probably more of a second baseman than a shortstop and fits best as a utility infielder who can do a little bit of everything despite not having a standout ability.
Showing posts with label CJ Van Eyk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CJ Van Eyk. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Sunday, April 26, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: CJ Van Eyk
RHP CJ Van Eyk, Florida State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/15/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 1.31 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 20.2 IP
Van Eyk has had an interesting ride. A potential top five rounds pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2017, arm troubles and signability pushed him out of that range and he ended up in Tallahassee wearing maroon and gold. He was an immediate contributor as a freshman (2.86 ERA, 71/30 K/BB) and kept on rolling as a sophomore (3.81 ERA, 129/41 K/BB), with his 129 strikeouts finishing second in the ACC to only Louisville's Reid Detmers' 167. Among underclassmen nationally, only Detmers, Ball State's Drey Jameson (146), and Texas A&M's Asa Lacy (130) had more. Because of this, Van Eyk entered this draft cycle as somewhat of a "brand name" ACC starting pitcher, one with 17 wins already under his belt, plenty of national exposure, and a big curveball to make the scouts happy. While he hasn't necessarily underwhelmed in 2020 (nobody would call a 1.31 ERA "underwhelming"), the helium behind many other college arms in the same range has given Van Eyk's stock a bit of a market correction and pushed him out of the first round, but he remains one of the better arms in the loaded 2020 class.
Standing 6'1", Van Eyk comes in with a fastball in the low 90's, and there's a little bit of crossfire action in his delivery that puts good diagonal angle on the ball towards the glove side. His best pitch is a big 12-6 curveball, one which he has great feel for and which has helped him rack up 225 strikeouts during his time at Florida State. Van Eyk finishes it off with a changeup and a slider, the latter of which is his fourth pitch and less essential to the operation. His command is a little below average, but it plays up just a bit because of his aggressiveness in the zone and willingness to go right after hitters. After missing some time in high school with arm soreness, he's proven durable in college over 176.2 innings and fits the profile of a workhorse starter.
Together, I think it's very clear what Van Eyk brings to the table. He doesn't really have that ace upside since he doesn't have big velocity, great command, or a projectable frame that figures to add that velocity, but he's a proven performer with a career 3.21 ERA at Florida State who can fool even advanced college hitters with his curveball. It's a #3 or #4 starter projection, and he's a relatively safe bet to be at least a #5. That puts his likely draft range just outside the first round, either in the comp round or the early second round, though his track record of performance should be very beneficial in a year where a lot of guys don't have that.
2020 start vs FAU
2020 Bryce Jarvis vs CJ Van Eyk matchup
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/15/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-1, 1.31 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 20.2 IP
Van Eyk has had an interesting ride. A potential top five rounds pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2017, arm troubles and signability pushed him out of that range and he ended up in Tallahassee wearing maroon and gold. He was an immediate contributor as a freshman (2.86 ERA, 71/30 K/BB) and kept on rolling as a sophomore (3.81 ERA, 129/41 K/BB), with his 129 strikeouts finishing second in the ACC to only Louisville's Reid Detmers' 167. Among underclassmen nationally, only Detmers, Ball State's Drey Jameson (146), and Texas A&M's Asa Lacy (130) had more. Because of this, Van Eyk entered this draft cycle as somewhat of a "brand name" ACC starting pitcher, one with 17 wins already under his belt, plenty of national exposure, and a big curveball to make the scouts happy. While he hasn't necessarily underwhelmed in 2020 (nobody would call a 1.31 ERA "underwhelming"), the helium behind many other college arms in the same range has given Van Eyk's stock a bit of a market correction and pushed him out of the first round, but he remains one of the better arms in the loaded 2020 class.
Standing 6'1", Van Eyk comes in with a fastball in the low 90's, and there's a little bit of crossfire action in his delivery that puts good diagonal angle on the ball towards the glove side. His best pitch is a big 12-6 curveball, one which he has great feel for and which has helped him rack up 225 strikeouts during his time at Florida State. Van Eyk finishes it off with a changeup and a slider, the latter of which is his fourth pitch and less essential to the operation. His command is a little below average, but it plays up just a bit because of his aggressiveness in the zone and willingness to go right after hitters. After missing some time in high school with arm soreness, he's proven durable in college over 176.2 innings and fits the profile of a workhorse starter.
Together, I think it's very clear what Van Eyk brings to the table. He doesn't really have that ace upside since he doesn't have big velocity, great command, or a projectable frame that figures to add that velocity, but he's a proven performer with a career 3.21 ERA at Florida State who can fool even advanced college hitters with his curveball. It's a #3 or #4 starter projection, and he's a relatively safe bet to be at least a #5. That puts his likely draft range just outside the first round, either in the comp round or the early second round, though his track record of performance should be very beneficial in a year where a lot of guys don't have that.
2020 start vs FAU
2020 Bryce Jarvis vs CJ Van Eyk matchup
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018
The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
Monday, June 12, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Florida Prep Talent
First Tier: Mark Vientos, Jeter Downs, M.J. Melendez
Second Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Jake Eder
Third Tier: Joe Perez, James Marinan, C.J. Van Eyk, Shane Drohan
Others: Hunter Ruth, Sam McMillan, Tommy Mace, Zach Jackson
If the SEC is the epitome of college baseball, then Florida is where you go for the best high school talent. Miami-area schools like American Heritage (Vientos), Westminster Christian (Melendez), and Archbishop McCarthy (Perez) dominate the high school scene year in and year out, and many of the game's top players were drafted out of high school in Florida. That includes Alex Rodriguez (Westminster Christian), Chipper Jones (Bolles), Manny Machado (Brito Miami), Jose Fernandez (Alonso), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade), Ian Desmond (Sarasota), Gio Gonzalez (Monsignor Pace), and Eric Hosmer (American Heritage), just to name a few.
Tier I (Vientos, Downs, Melendez)
Mark Vientos of Eric Hosmer's alma mater, American Heritage HS, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft. The youngest player to even be considered for my top 100 (he turns 18 in December), Vientos has a big bat from the right side and the ability to play a solid third base, earning Manny Machado-lite comparisons. He's been up and down with the bat this spring, but a team banking on his youth will compare this to what most players do during their junior seasons in high school, and he could come off the board in the first round or outside the top 50. Jeter Downs, meanwhile, is universally loved, and not just because he has the best baseball name in this entire draft class (sorry, D'Mond LaFond). Playing at Gio Gonzalez's former school, Pace HS, he has endeared himself to scouts with his scrappy style of play and improving bat. The 5'11" infielder could be similar to Dustin Pedroia, and he has pushed himself into late first round/supplemental round conversations with his strong spring. We went over M.J. Melendez of Westminster Christian, the school that produced Alex Rodriguez, at length in the catchers' discussion, but he's a power bat with swing and miss concerns that should be able to stay behind home plate with his strong defense.
Tier II (Seise, McConnell, Eder)
While Tier I is made up of players from south Florida, Tier II moves up north a bit. Chris Seise comes from the Orlando area, and he and Space Coast area star Brady McConnell are easy to compare to each other. While Seise has improved his stock significantly this spring, McConnell came in as a possible first rounder, though his up and down season has put him about on par with Seise. Seise has the more conventional swing, while McConnell is similar to Arizona first baseman J.J. Matijevic in that he contracts and unloads on the ball to generate power. This has led to swing and miss from McConnell, and I get a little nervous that he won't be able to adjust to pro ball because of it. Both are solid shortstops, and while neither is likely to be forced to second or third base, McConnell is an even stronger bet to stay on shortstop. Lastly, we go back back down to south Florida for Jake Eder. A 6'4" lefty committed to Vanderbilt, Eder's ceiling is as high as any on this list, but he comes with a lot of risk. He sits in the low 90's now, but he struggles to repeat his mechanics even from pitch to pitch and will need significant coaching.
Tier III (Perez, Marinan, Van Eyk, Drohan)
Joe Perez, of national powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy, only came to pitching recently and is understandably raw. Combine that with the fact that he's just three days older than his crosstown rival, Mark Vientos, and he gets a lot of benefits of the doubt. His fastball can already run into the mid to upper 90's, and his cutter/slider is coming alone nicely as well. He has a high ceiling as a #2 starter or closer, but he went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of the spring and carries a huge amount of risk. He also may be a tough sign, as he has a very strong commitment to Miami. James Marinan is a similar pitcher to Perez in that he lives on his fastball, which out of nowhere is suddenly in the mid 90's, and he has a classic pitcher's frame at 6'5". Also like Perez, he is committed to Miami, and his success will ride on his ability to develop his secondaries. C.J. Van Eyk, one of only two Tampa-area players on this list (the other being Tommy Mace in the "others" section), has the stuff and overall pitchability to get top 50 consideration, but his injury uncertainty drops him out of the top 100 for most. The 6'2" righty throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, controls it well enough, and has arguably the best curveball in the state. However, he was shut down halfway through the spring and has not returned, raising medical question marks. Lastly, Shane Drohan is the only pitcher who can challenge Van Eyk's curveball, but unlike Van Eyk, the lefty Drohan's velocity sits more in the upper 80's. With a similar 6'2" frame to Van Eyk, he should hope to add velocity, but overall his combination of floor and ceiling is pretty mediocre.
Second Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Jake Eder
Third Tier: Joe Perez, James Marinan, C.J. Van Eyk, Shane Drohan
Others: Hunter Ruth, Sam McMillan, Tommy Mace, Zach Jackson
If the SEC is the epitome of college baseball, then Florida is where you go for the best high school talent. Miami-area schools like American Heritage (Vientos), Westminster Christian (Melendez), and Archbishop McCarthy (Perez) dominate the high school scene year in and year out, and many of the game's top players were drafted out of high school in Florida. That includes Alex Rodriguez (Westminster Christian), Chipper Jones (Bolles), Manny Machado (Brito Miami), Jose Fernandez (Alonso), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade), Ian Desmond (Sarasota), Gio Gonzalez (Monsignor Pace), and Eric Hosmer (American Heritage), just to name a few.
Tier I (Vientos, Downs, Melendez)
Mark Vientos of Eric Hosmer's alma mater, American Heritage HS, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft. The youngest player to even be considered for my top 100 (he turns 18 in December), Vientos has a big bat from the right side and the ability to play a solid third base, earning Manny Machado-lite comparisons. He's been up and down with the bat this spring, but a team banking on his youth will compare this to what most players do during their junior seasons in high school, and he could come off the board in the first round or outside the top 50. Jeter Downs, meanwhile, is universally loved, and not just because he has the best baseball name in this entire draft class (sorry, D'Mond LaFond). Playing at Gio Gonzalez's former school, Pace HS, he has endeared himself to scouts with his scrappy style of play and improving bat. The 5'11" infielder could be similar to Dustin Pedroia, and he has pushed himself into late first round/supplemental round conversations with his strong spring. We went over M.J. Melendez of Westminster Christian, the school that produced Alex Rodriguez, at length in the catchers' discussion, but he's a power bat with swing and miss concerns that should be able to stay behind home plate with his strong defense.
Tier II (Seise, McConnell, Eder)
While Tier I is made up of players from south Florida, Tier II moves up north a bit. Chris Seise comes from the Orlando area, and he and Space Coast area star Brady McConnell are easy to compare to each other. While Seise has improved his stock significantly this spring, McConnell came in as a possible first rounder, though his up and down season has put him about on par with Seise. Seise has the more conventional swing, while McConnell is similar to Arizona first baseman J.J. Matijevic in that he contracts and unloads on the ball to generate power. This has led to swing and miss from McConnell, and I get a little nervous that he won't be able to adjust to pro ball because of it. Both are solid shortstops, and while neither is likely to be forced to second or third base, McConnell is an even stronger bet to stay on shortstop. Lastly, we go back back down to south Florida for Jake Eder. A 6'4" lefty committed to Vanderbilt, Eder's ceiling is as high as any on this list, but he comes with a lot of risk. He sits in the low 90's now, but he struggles to repeat his mechanics even from pitch to pitch and will need significant coaching.
Tier III (Perez, Marinan, Van Eyk, Drohan)
Joe Perez, of national powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy, only came to pitching recently and is understandably raw. Combine that with the fact that he's just three days older than his crosstown rival, Mark Vientos, and he gets a lot of benefits of the doubt. His fastball can already run into the mid to upper 90's, and his cutter/slider is coming alone nicely as well. He has a high ceiling as a #2 starter or closer, but he went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of the spring and carries a huge amount of risk. He also may be a tough sign, as he has a very strong commitment to Miami. James Marinan is a similar pitcher to Perez in that he lives on his fastball, which out of nowhere is suddenly in the mid 90's, and he has a classic pitcher's frame at 6'5". Also like Perez, he is committed to Miami, and his success will ride on his ability to develop his secondaries. C.J. Van Eyk, one of only two Tampa-area players on this list (the other being Tommy Mace in the "others" section), has the stuff and overall pitchability to get top 50 consideration, but his injury uncertainty drops him out of the top 100 for most. The 6'2" righty throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, controls it well enough, and has arguably the best curveball in the state. However, he was shut down halfway through the spring and has not returned, raising medical question marks. Lastly, Shane Drohan is the only pitcher who can challenge Van Eyk's curveball, but unlike Van Eyk, the lefty Drohan's velocity sits more in the upper 80's. With a similar 6'2" frame to Van Eyk, he should hope to add velocity, but overall his combination of floor and ceiling is pretty mediocre.
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