2021 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

This is a really interesting draft for the Rockies because they are really leaning on their development here. None of their early picks are anywhere close to finished products, with all requiring significant development in one way or another to reach their lofty ceilings. It will be an interesting ride for them with a hit and miss track record with prospects, but they're clearly trusting their system here to get these guys right and bring out the best in themselves. In a vacuum, I think third rounder McCade Brown would be my favorite pick, but he'll require a lot of work and I'm not bullish on their ability to get him right so I'll note seventh rounder Evan Shawver as my favorite for this system. They did focus on the battery, drafting seven pitchers or catchers in a row after first round outfielder Benny Montgomery.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-8: OF Benny Montgomery, Red Land HS [PA]. My rank: #13.
No park amplifies offensive tools, and even defensive tools for outfielders, quite like Coors Field, and Benny Montgomery has them in spades. Perhaps the most physically gifted player in the class, Montgomery is hoping to combine freak athleticism with a strong work ethic for a long, successful big league career. He shows true plus raw power from an ideal 6'4" frame, flinging the barrel through the zone with tremendous force matched by very few in this class. Once he puts the ball in play and it's not over the fence, he shows blazing speed that could beat all but maybe a select few from this draft class in a foot race. And in the outfield, when he's not tracking down fly balls on the other side of the zip code, he'll show off a plus arm that stops runners dead in their tracks. It's a physical package that doesn't come around every draft, perhaps a bit like Garrett Mitchell from 2020 but right handed. Really, the only drawback in Montgomery's profile is his hit tool, which happens to be an extremely important one. The Harrisburg-area native has a choppy swing that can look pieced together at times, leading to swing and miss issues when his hitch makes him late on a fastball. There are some pitch recognition questions as well, sometimes getting out in front of breaking balls and rolling them over. He did clean up his swing a bit this spring and showed moderate improvement with that hit tool, and Rockies officials are confident that his tireless work ethic, combined with their development system, will help him iron out those issues. If he can, this guy could put up a 40-40 season at Coors with a ceiling of peak Aaron Judge but faster. Committed to Virginia, he instead signed for $5 million, which was roughly $180,000 below slot value, and he has four singles in twelve at bats so far in the ACL.

2-44: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State. My rank: #75.
There may be no nationally-known player in this draft for which opinions range quite as wide as they do as for Jaden Hill, who ranked #24 at Baseball America, #36 on MLB Pipeline, #75 on my board, #79 at Prospects Live, and outside the top 100 or even top 150 on some other individual boards I've seen. Hill was a well-known prospect in high school, but ended up at LSU and saw his stock explode with video game numbers over his first two seasons, albeit in a small sample size (0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP). Heading into the 2021 season, he was a bona fide top ten prospect in the class that had a chance to pitch his way into the Pirates' organization as the first overall pick with a strong spring. In his first two seasons in Baton Rouge, the southwest Arkansas native flashed a sinker up to 98-99, a plus changeup that had been his bread and butter for a while, and a rapidly improving slider that was flashing plus-plus at its best. Unfortunately, 2021 was an absolute disaster, as he was sporting a 6.67 ERA and a 25/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29.2 innings when he walked off the field during an April 2nd start against Vanderbilt in considerable pain. Unfortunately, our worst fears were confirmed when it was announced he would undergo season ending Tommy John surgery, and now it's hard to know what to make of the young man's future. He showed the same big velocity that made him famous, but hitters picked up the sinker out of his hand and hit him hard when he left it over the plate. Perhaps more importantly, the slider that had showed signs of becoming one of the best breaking balls in the draft had completely backed up, failing to even elicit average grades from evaluators. The changeup maintained its plus movement, but without the other two pitches to play off, it couldn't hold his stat line together. The 6'4" righty is a very strong, physical kid who played quarterback at Ashdown High School in Arkansas, but he's sustained numerous injuries playing other sports and has never been on the mound for long stretches at a time. You have to question the durability at this point and whether he'll ever be able to provide 150 innings a year in a big league rotation. However, you absolutely cannot write him off as a potential impact relief arm or even a closer. Sinkers may be going out of style when they're thrown in their typical low 90's range, but turbo sinkers in the mid to upper 90's are still in and the Rockies can look to Zack Britton (albeit a right handed version) as someone who has found plenty of success that way. If Colorado can piece Hill back together, helping him get more consistent with that slider as well as his fastball location, they'll have an impact arm on their hands regardless of his eventual role. If the nagging injuries turn out to just be growing pains from being a multi-sport star and he recovers successfully from Tommy John surgery, he still has every chance to be a top of the rotation starter. He signed for full slot value at $1.69 million.

CBB-68: LHP Joe Rock, Ohio. My rank: #80.
I always found Joe Rock a tough one to pin down to a certain region on my board, whether that was in the second round range or outside the top one hundred. It's a pretty interesting profile, one that could end up developing in any number of ways. Rock was unremarkable as a freshman (5.19 ERA, 41/37 K/BB against ordinary competition) and redshirted his sophomore year, but came out showing hugely improved stuff in the fall of 2020. He carried that over for the most part into 2021, where he put up a 2.33 ERA and a 117/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, albeit again against a pretty ordinary schedule. The 6'6" lefty can get up to 96 early in his starts then settles into the low 90's as his starts progress, sometimes going a tick below that later in the spring. He adds a sweepy slider that looks above average when it's located well, and his changeup shows nice drop that should play really nicely off his other two pitches as he continues to refine his feel for it. It's a tough angle for hitters because Rock from a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot, while his height enables him to get down the mound and release the ball out in front. The low slot also puts a unique movement pattern on his stuff, giving the fastball more run and sink and making the hitter have to think more horizontally. The Pittsburgh-area native also has plenty of projection in his huge frame and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, so even if his fastball was in the upper 80's at times this spring, his loose operation promises more velocity to come. The age is a big positive as well, as he's young for the class and didn't turn 21 until after the draft. Now with all the signs pointing to him continuing to improve, I'm not entirely sure how much ceiling he truly has, as sinkerballers are getting hit harder nowadays and he lacks the plus putaway pitch (at least for now) that he'll need to be more than a #3 starter, especially with fringe-average command. Rock signed for full slot value at $953,100.

3-79: RHP McCade Brown, Indiana. My rank: #58.
This one is absolutely fascinating to me, and McCade Brown has a chance to be the best pitcher to come out of this Rockies draft class if they develop him right (and he was the highest ranked on my board anyways). Brown was a complete non-factor over his first two seasons at Indiana, throwing just 6.2 innings but allowing eleven earned runs while walking thirteen over six games (three starts). He completely turned it around over the summer and kept that momentum through fall practice and into the first half of the season, though he was a bit inconsistent later on. Overall, he posted a 3.39 ERA and a 97/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, highlighted back to back gems against Rutgers and Penn State to start the season in which he tossed fourteen innings and allowed just one run on seven baseunners while striking out 28. At his best, the central Illinois native can be absolutely untouchable, showing a fastball up to 96 as well as an absolute hammer of a curveball and a tight, late slider. Here is some fall video, which captures him at his best. Now there's still a lot of work to do. The 6'6" righty improved his command from non-playable to fringe-average, but it was exposed to be safely below average over longer stints this spring. His stuff wasn't always at its best, either, sometimes losing a touch of velocity or seeing his breaking balls back up a bit. Brown is very young for the class, not turning 21 until more than a month after the draft, and given how far he's come in such a short period of time it's natural to have some bumps in the road. That's what the Rockies will tell themselves as they work to refine his delivery, build strength, and overall just get him to that best version of himself more often than not. There's a ton of upside here and I'm really interested to see how he turns out. Brown signed for slot value at $780,400.

4-109: C Hunter Goodman, Memphis. My rank: #110.
Last year, the Rockies drafted a glove first high school catcher named Drew Romo in the comp round, but he's off to a hot .328/.361/.461 start with the bat so far at Low A Fresno this summer. They'll give him a bat-first counterpart in Hunter Goodman, and the two could work their way up together and eventually work in tandem as long term catchers in Colorado. Goodman has put up tremendous numbers at Memphis, slashing .323/.388/.638 with 42 home runs and a 124/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games for his career, including a .307/.401/.678 line and a career-high 21 home runs this spring. This is a big power bat that has never had any trouble tapping it in games, even as an underclassman in the elite Cape Cod League in 2019 when he blasted eight home runs in 43 games. The power comes from all the strength he packs into his 6'1" frame in addition to the leverage he's able to produce and his willingness to attack hittable pitches. Now, even though he never had a power drought at any point in his amateur career, he is fairly raw as a hitter. The Memphis-area native shows a pretty swing in batting practice, but it can get choppy in games and he doesn't always get his best swing off. He's also been extremely aggressive throughout his career, walking at just a 4.2% rate over his first two years at Memphis and just 1.8% on the Cape. That improved in 2021, when he bumped his walk rate up to 12.4%, but he still struck out at a career-high 21.9% rate, simply working his way into deeper counts rather than seriously improving his pitch selection. Behind the plate, Goodman's actions remain fringy, and while his strong arm and the possible coming of robot umpires gives him a chance to stick there, I personally feel as though the bar for catcher defense is or should be elevated at Coors Field where pitchers really need to trust their catchers. If he has to move to first base, it immediately becomes a pretty boom or bust profile. No matter what the strikeout and walk numbers are, you absolutely can't deny the numbers and the consistency of his in-game power at Memphis, especially from a catcher, so we are talking the upside of a legitimate power hitting starting catcher if he makes the transition well. Goodman signed for $600,000, which was $67,000 above slot value, and he's hitting .333/.375/.467 through five games in the ACL.

6-170: C Braxton Fulford, Texas Tech. Unranked.
The Rockies didn't have any hometown picks this year, so the closest we'll get is by heading down to the high plains of West Texas, where we get Texas Tech catcher Braxton Fulford, a Lubbock native. Even though it's in Texas, Lubbock is barely farther from Denver as it is from Houston, so we'll roll with it and call it a stretch of a semi-hometown pick. Fulford has been a staple behind the plate for the Red Raiders for four years now, and he had his best season yet in 2021 by slashing .264/.395/.590 with 14 home runs and a 54/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Unlike Hunter Goodman, Fulford really stands out for his work behind the plate. He's extremely agile back there and can get back and forth to block balls in the dirt, then pop up quickly with a lightning fast transfer to show off his above average arm and nail runners trying to take a base. His energy back there is contagious and pitchers love working with him, something that will be very important in a place like Coors Field. Previously a light hitting glove-first guy, he exploded for a career high 14 home runs this spring after totaling five in 117 games over his first three seasons, and now that outlook has changed a bit. It still remains to be seen whether he'll make enough contact to tap that power in pro ball, having struck out at a 24.5% rate this spring, but if he can he does have some upside as a starter given his defense. More likely though, he'll probably end up a glove-first backup that can ambush mistake pitches out of the park. Fulford signed for $280,000, which was $16,400 below slot value, and he has one hit in five at bats so far in the ACL.

7-200: LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati. My rank: #140.
Evan Shawver entered the spring as a favorite sleeper among Midwest area scouts and data-driven scouts alike, and while he didn't quite go bust in 2021, he didn't quite build on his promise either. Shawver had a rough freshman season before turning it around as a sophomore, then settled in with a strong if not flashy junior season by posting a 2.72 ERA and a 49/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings. Just before the draft, he did make a late push to get some "flash" into his profile by winning Cape Cod League pitcher of the week honors in late June on the heels of back to back scoreless six inning starts in which he struck out 22 of the 48 batters he faced. Shawver may be undersized, but he doesn't lack in stuff with a low 90's fastball that usually tops out around 94 but has gotten up to 97 in short stints, coming in with high spin rates and a low release height that give it great riding life. He adds an above average to plus slider and an average changeup, all of which he locates well with solid average command. The 6' lefty faces durability questions because of his skinny frame and the fact that he missed some time this spring with nagging injuries while his delivery is moderately high effort. I think the national baseball media put too much into that and him underrated a bit (unranked on MLB Pipeline top 250, #387 on the Baseball America 500, #262 on the Prospects Live top 600), and he has a good chance to be a very useful #3 or #4 starter if the Rockies can pack a little more strength in there. The Cleveland-area native signed for full slot value at $231,100.

8-230: OF Robby Martin, Florida State. My rank: #133.
As with a lot of other players in this class, I find Robby Martin to be interesting as well. Coming into the season, he reminded me a bit of where JJ Bleday was pre-junior season (though if you'll remember, Bleday was not considered a top of the draft prospect at that point), with maybe a half grade less on all of his tools. Like Bleday, he was an all fields, line drive hitter that had grown into significantly more power since high school, but hadn't necessarily learned to use it. In Bleday's junior season in 2019, he very much figured it out, but Martin didn't quite had the same success, slashing .260/.352/.451 with eleven home runs and a 56/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. The Tampa native has added a ton of strength to his 6'3" frame and can really put a charge into a baseball, but in games he still employs that all fields, line drive approach. Unlike Bleday, who showed a keen eye at the plate and a knack for working counts and drawing walks, Martin was a bit more prone to swing and miss and whiffed at a 22.4% rate this year. He has shown a knack for finding the barrel in the past and did hit .317 with a .408 on-base percentage over his first two years at Florida State, so the Rockies are betting that his down 2021 was just a placeholder while he got ready for his breakout in pro ball. Hitting in an environment like Coors (plus hitter-friendly minor league parks like Fresno and Albuquerque) could provide that extra little push to get him lifting and turning on the ball consistently, hopefully without leading to more swing and miss. If he gets there, this could be a productive every day bat for the Rockies, though his outfield defense is just ordinary and he profiles in a corner with average speed. He signed for $200,000, which was $16,300 above slot value, and he's hitless through seven at bats in the ACL, though he has drawn two walks.

9-260: RHP Cullen Kafka, Oregon. My rank: #204.
Cullen Kafka drew some moderate interest in the 2020 draft and likely would have gone if the draft were full length, but he had never shown enough consistency to really fit in the top five rounds. He pulled it together this year and turned in by far his best performance with a 3.00 ERA and an 84/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, including starting the season by allowing just one run in his first four starts. Kafka has a low 90's fastball that gets up to about 96, adding a significantly improved slider that now profiles as above average. The 6'4" righty mainly pitches off those two and has improved his strike throwing to fringe-average, though he does tend to sail the ball at times. If Kafka wants to stick in a rotation long term, he's going to have to take a step forward with his fringy changeup as well as get that command up just a tick. The Bay Area native has an ideal pitcher's frame and gets down the mound well, but my guess is he's eventually pushed back to the bullpen with a bit of a high effort delivery. There, he can focus on the fastball and slider and worry less about pinpoint command. He signed right at slot value for $158,100.

18-530: RHP Bryce McGowan, Charlotte. My rank: #94.
The Rockies spent much of their unused bonus pool money here, hitting Bryce McGowan with sixth round money to get him into their system. McGowan brings a ton of upside, but will require some work. While the stuff has long intrigued scouts, he's never quite put it together at Charlotte, and this year was his best with a 4.84 ERA and a 99/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his power fastball and can reach back for 98-99 in short stints, and the pitch plays up because he gets great ride on it. His secondary pitches are trending up to catch his fastball, with a slider that is flashing plus at times as well as a changeup that flashes above average. It seems like the Raleigh-Durham native is slowly growing into his loud stuff, with command that has ticked up towards fringe-average, but he still hasn't quite learned to harness it and can be very inconsistent. His loose delivery does work well. Slightly undersized at a generous 6'1", he still has plenty of very interesting puzzle pieces that the Rockies will try to put together. If he can get a bit more consistent with those secondary pitches and show average command, he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. McGowan signed for $300,000, of which $175,000 counts against the Rockies' bonus pool.

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Every AL/NL Central Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). This is the second of three articles, as I previously wrote on the AL and NL East. Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about. AL/NL West article here.

Chicago Cubs/White Sox
Hitter: SS Branden Comia, Illinois (hometown: Orland Park, IL)
I'm going to do the same thing here that I did with the Mets and Yankees, just combining the Cubs and White Sox and picking a hitter and a pitcher. Despite its size, Chicago doesn't bring quite as much baseball talent to the table as warmer places like Atlanta, Houston, or Los Angeles, but it's usually good for a couple names every year. This year, Day One likely won't yield any Chicagoland natives, especially not any bats, so I dug a little deeper to find Illini shortstop Branden Comia. A graduate of Carl Sandburg High School in Orland Park, about twenty miles southwest of downtown, Comia hit just .255/.322/.370 as a freshman but has caught fire ever since. He burst onto the scene with a .426/.526/.702 line over 13 games in the shortened 2020 season, and his 2021 has been nearly as hot. A bit undersized at 5'10", he shows great feel for the barrel from the right side and has tapped some moderate power in Urbana-Champaign, and he does a very good job of limiting his strikeouts. The power will likely never be more than fringe-average, as his swing is geared towards line drives and he hasn't hit well with wood bats. Comia will stick in the middle infield, either at shortstop or second base, and has a utility projection. He probably doesn't make sense for the Cubs or White Sox in the first two to three rounds, but once we get into triple digits on the overall board, one of them might like his consistent profile.
Other options: C Ian Moller (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA), 1B Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame via Granger, IN), 3B Alex Binelas (Louisville via Oak Creek, WI), OF Zaid Walker (Michigan State via Homewood, IL)
Pitcher: RHP McCade Brown, Indiana (hometown: Normal, IL)
We'll move a little outside of Chicagoland to get to a really interesting pitcher. McCade Brown went to Normal West High School in Normal, Illinois, just over one hundred miles southwest of Chicago and home of Illinois State University. To call his first two years at Indiana unremarkable would actually be a compliment; in 6.2 innings, he allowed eleven earned runs (14.85 ERA) and walked thirteen batters (31% of those he faced). However, something clicked for the 6'6" righty over the summer and by fall practice, he was a completely transformed pitcher. Brown came out absolutely dealing to start the season, shutting down Rutgers and Penn State for one run over fourteen innings, allowing just three hits, two walks, and two hit batsmen along the way and striking out 28. He's come back down to Earth a bit since then, but we still have a heck of a prospect on our hands. At his best, Brown can touch 96 with his fastball and drop in an absolute hammer curveball, backed up by a distinct slider with late break as well. However, over extended innings, his stuff has flattened out just a little bit and the command has backed up a hair as well, so both the Cubs (pick #21) and White Sox (pick #22) might be a little bit of a stretch in the first round at this point unless he regains that early season form. If he's still on the board when they pick again at #56 and #57, respectively, both could be very interested.
Other options: RHP Glenn Albanese (Louisville via Batavia, IL), RHP J.P. Massey (Minnesota via Chicago, IL), RHP Jack Perkins (Louisville via Kokomo, IN), RHP Johnny Ray (Texas Christian via Quincy, IL), RHP Luke Smith (Louisville via Champaign, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: OF Daylen Lile, Trinity HS, Louisville, KY
I was torn between Daylen Lile and Ohio State ace Seth Lonsway, but despite Lonsway being a Buckeye State lifer who grew up in Celina, I went with Lile because a) I think he has a better chance of landing in Cincinnati than Lonsway and b) I've written about Lonsway a lot over the years since he was on draft radars in both 2017 and 2020, so I think it's time we give the new kid a shot. Lile is a really interesting bat out of Louisville who is committed to stay in town and play for the Cardinals should he push pro ball down the road, but he's trending up and might not end up at school. Nobody doubts his pure hit tool, as he brings an extremely professional approach at the plate that he combines with a smooth, leveraged left handed swing to find the barrel consistently. Up until this spring, there were some minor concerns over his power output, as he lacked the pure strength to really maximize his skill set, but he's come out swinging a hot bat lately and has been turning on more baseballs. If he can continue to add muscle to his 6'1" frame, he has a chance to be an extremely well-rounded hitter. The defense is a bit of a question mark, as he is fringy in center field and doesn't quite have the arm for right field. Because there's a chance he ends up in left field, teams will really need to bank on that strength continuing to manifest, which is why his hot 2021 has been very good for his stock. Lile will not be in play for the Reds' first round pick at #17, but they have a couple of comp picks at #30 and #35, then their second round pick comes in at #53. He could make sense at either of those comp picks, or if bonus demands push him down, the Reds should have space to sign him above slot at #53.
Other options: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State via Celina, OH), RHP Sam Bachman (Miami of OH via Fishers, IN), SS Luke Waddell (Georgia Tech via Loveland, OH), OF Colson Montgomery (Southridge HS, Huntingburg, IN), SS Trey Sweeney (Eastern Illinois via Louisville, KY)

Cleveland Indians: LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati (hometown: Amherst, OH)
Northern Ohio can be hit or miss in terms of producing baseball talent, last year giving us Massillon natives Dillon Dingler (Ohio State) and Kyle Nicolas (Ball State), and this year we have one Day One prospect in Cincinnati lefty Evan Shawver. A product of Steele High School in Amherst, on the western edge of the Cleveland suburbs, Shawver transformed himself as a pitcher between his freshman and sophomore years. The undersized lefty greatly improved his command while seeing his stuff tick up as well, bumping into the low 90's with his fastball and topping out as high as 97. His slider flashes plus with late diving action and his changeup is an above average pitch as well, and the entire package put him in the top tier of college lefties according to some evaluators. However, he's barely pitched lately and I can't find information as to why, which has knocked him into the second tier. Depending on why he's missed time, durability questions could start to creep up given his size. He won't be in play at pick #23 but depending how he returns, he could be at #58, #69, or #95.
Other options: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State via Celina, OH), LHP Michael Kirian (Louisville via New Riegel, OH), RHP Ryan Bergert (West Virginia via Canton, OH), LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia via Gahanna, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Cincinnati via Warren, OH)

Detroit Tigers: SS Alex Mooney, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, West Bloomfield, MI
Prep middle infielders seem to have an interesting tendency to get drafted higher than the national rankings say. It seems like every year, the national rankings will have one of these kids in the second round that at least a few teams like at the back of the first, such as Matt McLain in 2018, Anthony Volpe in 2019, and Nick Yorke and Carson Tucker in 2020. There are a few more names like that in 2021, and if the Tigers want to go that route, one is from Michigan. Alex Mooney stands out for his feel for the game over his tools, in a somewhat similar vein to Jordan Lawlar at the top of the draft (who could be an option for the Tigers at pick #3). Mooney isn't as athletic as Lawlar, but he's simply a gamer who makes things happen on the field. He has a quick swing from the right side and puts some nice lift on the ball, maximizing his impact by choosing good pitches to swing at and doing damage. The Rochester Hills native definitely has the feel for shortstop, but a superior defender may be able to push him to third base. Also like Lawlar, Mooney is old for the class and will be 19 on draft day, which works against him for many teams, and he'll be eligible again in 2023 after two seasons at Duke if he chooses that route.
Other options: SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (Nebraska via Saginaw, MI), 3B Luke Leto (Portage Central HS, Portage, MI), RHP Mason Erla (Michigan State via Cass City, MI), 1B Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame via Granger, IN), LHP Michael Kirian (Louisville via New Riegel, OH)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS
I was tempted to go with KC native and Arkansas star Christian Franklin here, but pick #7 might be just a little rich for him given his slight strikeout concerns. We'll go with Ben Kudrna, an interesting high school pitcher out of Blue Valley Southwest High School at the southern edge of the KC suburbs, since the Royals tend to like these types of arms and he makes a lot of sense at pick #43. Kudrna's velocity has been ticking up little by little over the last few years, and this spring he's been sitting in the mid 90's more often and touching 97-98. He adds an above average slider and changeup to make for a very well-rounded arsenal, and on top of all that, he fills up the strike zone with a repeatable delivery that should enable him to remain a starter over the long run. There's a really nice combination of ceiling and floor here for a high school arm, and Kudrna isn't too dissimilar to Ben Hernandez, the Royals' 41st overall pick last year who was older for his class and didn't quite have Kudrna's breaking ball.
Other options: OF Christian Franklin (Arkansas via Overland Park, KS), C Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS, Kansas City, MO), LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State via Conway, AR), RHP Brannon Jordan (South Carolina via Collinsville, OK), RHP Cole Larsen (Kansas via Jamestown, KS)

Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (hometown: Oak Creek, WI)
It's really hard to pin down Alex Binelas' draft stock right now. He entered the season a potential top ten pick, but picked up just two hits in his first eight games, spanning 31 at bats, and even then continued on a cold stretch. However, he righted the ship towards the end of March and has been on a tear ever since, and in a crop of college bats that has really disappointed so far, he's starting to stand out once again. The Brewers pick at #15, which at this point is too rich for the slugging infielder, but if he continues to hit this way, he could make more and more sense. Milwaukee picks again at #33, which could also be a fit if Binelas cools off just a little bit. He's proven to be one of the streakiest hitters in the draft, so anything is really possible. The Oak Creek native has tremendous raw power from the left side, the product of a lightning quick barrel and plenty of strength in his 6'3" frame. He goes through stretches where he's tapping that power virtually every game, and at those times he looks like a top ten pick, but also can start to swing through pitches at other times, especially soft stuff. Defensively, he shows a strong arm at third base but his mobility there has become increasingly questionable, especially after Lucas Dunn forced him over to first base. Binelas could also make sense in at a corner outfield spot.
Other options: SS Noah Miller (Ozaukee HS, Fredonia, WI), C Ian Moller (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (Notre Dame via Eau Claire, WI), RHP Glenn Albanese (Louisville via Batavia, IL), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA)

Minnesota Twins: C Ian Moller, Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA
Sometimes it can be tough to find Day One prospects from the Twin Cities, though last year we did get third overall pick and Woodbury native Max Meyer out of Minnesota. This year, nobody stands out from the Gopher State, so I headed south of the border into Iowa to grab Dubuque star Ian Moller. It makes sense, because the Twins are no stranger to catchers in the early rounds and plucked Ben Rortvedt out of a Wisconsin high school in the second round in 2016 as well as UNC Wilmington's Ryan Jeffers in the second round in 2018. Moller probably won't be in play at pick #26 in the first round, though the Twins' pick at #36 might represent his draft ceiling and an over slot deal at #61 could make sense as well. Moller has a picturesque swing that looks a little like a right handed Cody Bellinger, generating a ton of torque in his vicious but controlled uppercut. That in turn produces plus raw power that looks especially good from a catcher, and while his hit tool can be streaky, he has shown strong feel for the barrel against good pitching. The LSU commit also shows a good all-around defensive profile, with smooth glove work, a strong arm, and a quick release. It's a really well-rounded profile for a high school catcher, especially when he's hot at the plate, but high school catchers are notoriously risky and some teams avoid them altogether in the early rounds. The ceiling, though, is tantalizing, especially for a team like the Twins with an extra competitive balance pick.
Other options: RHP Aidan Maldonado (Illinois via Rosemount, MN), 2B Cooper Bowman (Louisville via Rapid City, SD), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA), RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (Notre Dame via Eau Claire, WI)

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State (hometown: Valencia, PA)
Since Gibsonia native Neil Walker's star faded, we haven't had a star major leaguer from western Pennsylvania to take his place, but a few are coming up the pipeline. Between the Twins' Alex Kirilloff (Plum) and the Reds' Austin Hendrick (Imperial), there are a couple power hitting outfielders ready to make their marks, and now Mississippi State has what could be the best yinzer arm in a very long time. The younger brother of current Pirates reliever David Bednar, Will rode an excellent but short freshman season in Starkville (1.76 ERA, 23/6 K/BB in 15.1 IP) to an even bigger sophomore season, where he has pitched himself into the fringes of the first round conversation. While he won't be in play when the Pirates lead off the draft with the first overall pick, he could make a lot of sense at #37 if he's still available. The Valencia native deals a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to 95-96 at its best, bringing nice ride that misses bats. His slider has taken a step forward this year and has become a true plus pitch, a wipeout offering that misses bats even when he misses his location. Bednar has also worked in a solid curveball and changeup in the past, but since his slider took off, he hasn't had much need for them. His control is ahead of his command for now but he fills up the strike zone and has proven durable thus far. As a draft-eligible sophomore/COVID freshman, he might have a high asking price, but Pittsburgh should be able to swing it given the size of their bonus pool.
Other options: LHP Joe Rock (Ohio via Aliquippa, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA), OF Benny Montgomery (Red Land HS, Lewisberry, PA), RHP Michael Morales (East Pennsboro Area HS, Enola, PA), RHP Ryan Bergert (West Virginia via Canton, OH)

St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Drew Gray, IMG Academy, FL (hometown: Swansea, IL)
The Cardinals could target Memphis product Hunter Goodman in the second round, but if we really want to go with a hometown pick, we'll wait until the third or fourth round with Drew Gray. Gray grew up just across the river in Swansea, Illinois, next to Belleville, but headed across the country to the IMG Academy in Florida to hone his baseball skill set. Primarily known as an outfielder throughout most of his prep career, he's very new to pitching and is a pure projection pick at this point. He brings a low 90's fastball that gets up to 93-94 at its best, but can dip into the upper 80's later in his starts, and his breaking ball is pretty slurvy for now. However, scouts love the way his arm works and see a lot to like in his mechanics as well, and some thing that a simple combination of added strength and seasoning could make him a monster. Of course, given that Gray only turns 18 in May, there is plenty of time to do both of those things. The Cardinals could choose to bite with the 70th or 90th overall pick, in which case they'd be taking a risk but hopefully buying into the breakout before it happens. If he goes unsigned and makes it to campus at Arkansas, he could come out a first round pick in 2024.
Other options: C Hunter Goodman (Memphis via Arlington, TN), SS Benjamin Sems (Michigan via Chesterfield, MO), OF Colson Montgomery (Southridge HS, Huntingburg, IN), 1B Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), LHP Hugh Fisher (Vanderbilt via Eads, TN)

2021 MLB Draft: an early look at the Big Ten

 Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on November 17th.

In contrast to football and basketball, where the Big Ten routinely challenges for national championships, the Big Ten is the weakest of the Power Five conferences in baseball. Michigan’s surprise run to the College World Series Championship against Vanderbilt in 2019 was a key achievement, but otherwise, the Big Ten is a tier below the SEC, ACC, and even Pac 12 and Big 12.

In terms of draft talent, we see a very clear theme here. Eight of the Big Ten Top Ten listed prospects are pitchers, and even they have a lot in common. These stringbean pitchers were listed, on average, at 6’4″ and 209 pounds, and only Seth Lonsway, Mason Erla, and Garrett Burhenn have any significant Big Ten experience. That means the ongoing theme will be projection, projection, projection.

As a map enthusiast, I also have to point out that this really represents the team of the North, with two players from Massachusetts, two from Indianapolis, and one each from Chicago, Portland, Baltimore, northwestern Ohio, and northeastern Michigan. In a sport typically heavier on players from warmer climates, I find that noteworthy.

1. LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’5″, 215 lbs. Born 8/7/2000. Hometown: Andover, MA
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.

Leading the way, Michigan’s Steven Hajjar fits all of the themes on this list. He’s long and lanky at 6’5″, grew up in Massachusetts, and is all upside with just 20 collegiate innings under his belt. Hajjar actually missed the 2019 season with a torn ACL, but he put himself back on the map with a statement start to open 2020. In his first college inning, he struck out Arizona State’s Drew Swift and Spencer Torkelson back to back, the latter of course going on to be selected first overall four months later. When the day was through, Hajjar had tossed six shutout innings and struck out seven against the best lineup in college baseball, and he finished with a 2.70 ERA in four starts.

Hajjar is oozing with traits scouts love to see. The 6’5″ lefty has a ton of room to fill out his lanky frame, which could help a fastball that currently sits in the low 90’s play up into the mid 90’s down the line. What was once a slurvy slider has added finish in Ann Arbor, flashing plus at its best and missing plenty of bats. He’s also improved what was once a fringy changeup into a legitimate solid average to above average offering, giving him three strong pitches from the left side. The stuff is there now and could get even better, but like many arms in the Big Ten, we’re waiting for some track record.

The ACL injury and shutdown mean he’s thrown just 20 innings in his college career, and he walked eleven in that span (including at least two in every start). He doesn’t always get his long left arm coming down in the same slot, leading to command questions that he hasn’t quite assuaged yet in fall workouts. That’s fixable with more reps, especially given that he’s young for a college junior and won’t turn 21 until August, but for now it’s at the top of the to-do list. For now, scouts will just have to dream on the stuff and projectability. With improved command and perhaps a tick or two of velocity, Hajjar has arguably the highest ceiling in the Big Ten.

2. RHP Sean Burke, Maryland

Bat: R. Throw R. 6’6″, 230 lbs. Born 12/18/1999. Hometown: Sutton, MA

2020: 2-0, 1.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 35/11 K/BB in 22.2 IP.

Two names, two towering pitchers from Massachusetts who missed 2019 with injuries. Sean Burke, who has an inch and fifteen pounds on Steven Hajjar, grew up an hour away from him in the Bay State, then spent 2019 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery while Hajjar dealt with his ACL. Returning in 2020, he shoved against a relatively weak non-conference schedule, putting up a 1.99 ERA and a 35/11 strikeout to walk ratio 22.2 innings. Heading into 2021, Hajjar has the leg up in handedness and a deeper arsenal, but Burke might have the louder “now” stuff.

Standing 6’6″ and 230 pounds, Burke was a cold weather projection arm coming out of high school and has made good on that projection. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s, touching 95 with regularity. That fastball gets nice riding action up in the zone and misses bats consistently, playing above its velocity and pairing well with his curveball. That breaking ball is a tight spinner that can be equally tough to hit, and the two pitches give him a very high floor on their own. However, there is certainly still work to be done.

Hajjar has walked eleven batters in twenty innings, and it’s a similar line for Burke, with eleven walks in 22.2 innings against slightly weaker competition. He has a tendency to yank or sail his pitches, which hasn’t hurt him to this point but is something to watch. He has a clean delivery and seems to have finally grown into his large frame, so perhaps he just needs time to harness his loud stuff. Burke also needs to refine his changeup, which is clearly his third pitch at this point and not quite on par with Hajjar. As a two pitch pitcher with command questions, he faces considerable relief risk, but we’re looking at some of the loudest stuff in the Big Ten.

3. RHP JP Massey, Minnesota

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’5″, 205 lbs. Born 4/1/2000. Hometown: Chicago, IL
2019-2020: 1-2, 5.08 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 55/34 K/BB 44.1 IP.

Another name, another towering pitcher from up north. Between Steven Hajjar, Sean Burke, and JP Massey, the latter is the purest “projection” arm, with the most room to fill out his frame and the most work to do on his secondaries. Through two seasons in Minneapolis, the Chicago native has a 5.08 ERA and a 55/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings, not the loudest line but there is stuff to like when you look closely. In addition to striking out 26.1% of his opponents, he also has allowed just a .201 opponents’ batting average. With a considerable refinement, his ceiling is tremendous.

Massey’s best attribute is his fastball, which presently sits in the low to mid 90’s and can scrape 95-96. Given his long, lanky build, it’s easy to see him sitting more consistently in the mid 90’s down the road and touching higher. His two breaking balls can blend into each other, but his slider can really stand out when he tightens it up. We don’t have much of a changeup at this point, and the command is mediocre but improving.

Massey has a lot to work on, but just as much to like. If he can get a little more consistent with that slider and show more 55-60’s than 40-45’s, he has a chance to shoot up boards even without improvement in other areas. Meanwhile, maintaining steady progress with his command and getting it closer to average will help, while the changeup is obviously something to watch for. He’s a favorite among area scouts, and he only barely ranks behind Burke on my list. Watch Massey very closely for any signs of improvement in a multitude of areas.

4. LHP Seth Lonsway, Ohio State

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’3, 200 lbs. Born 10/7/1998. Hometown: Celina, OH

2019-2020: 9-6, 3.59 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 168/77 K/BB in 110.1 IP.

Seth Lonsway was a well-known draft name in rural western Ohio in 2017 but elected to attend Ohio State, then was mentioned as high as the second round for the 2020 draft. A high asking price left him undrafted, and now he becomes a priority draft name for a third cycle. You don’t see much contact in his game, as he struck out 30.3% of those he faced in 2019 and walked 14.2%, then got even more extreme in 2020 with 50.6% and 21.7% rates, respectively. For those more comfortable with raw numbers, that’s an incredible 42/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 18 innings in 2020.

Lonsway has the loudest “now” stuff in the Big Ten, and it’s not particularly close. His explosive fastball sits in the low to mid 90’s and tops out around 96, playing above its velocity because it runs hard and really jumps out of his hand. Then we have two breaking balls, led by an absolute hammer of a curveball that was one of the best in the 2020 draft. His lateral slider is improving as well and looks like at least an above average pitch, if not plus, and his changeup rounds out his arsenal nicely. All three secondary pitches generate whiff rates of 59% or above. To this point, Big Ten hitters have had absolutely no chance to make contact against him, instead relying on drawing walks or seeing fastballs over the middle of the plate.

That command is a serious problem. As his stuff has gotten louder, his location has gotten even more erratic, and he walked a combined 30 batters in 30 innings between the 2019 Cape Cod season and 2020 regular season. He struggles to wrangle that truly explosive stuff, despite a pretty clean overhand delivery. Sturdily built at 6’3″, he has every starter trait necessary except command, so whoever drafts the 22 year old will likely believe in his ability to start. If the command never gets better, the stuff could play exceptionally well out of the bullpen, especially from the left side, and he has plenty of margin for error.

5. OF Grant Richardson, Indiana

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 185 lbs. Born 7/13/1999. Hometown: Fishers, IN

2019-2020: 14 HR, .306/.366/.572, 4 SB, 73/17 K/BB in 60 games.

After four arms to start the list, we get to our top hitter at #5. Grant Richardson was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year, but went undrafted despite slashing .424/.453/.797 with five home runs in 14 games. That was no weak schedule either, as he went 6-12 with a home run in a weekend series against Louisiana State and had a pair of matching 2-5 performances against East Carolina and Ole Miss, homering in both. In a Big Ten Conference weak on position players, Richardson enters 2021 as the Big Ten best all-around.

It’s easy to fall in love with the tools here. Richardson is a great athlete at 6’2″ with plenty of twitchy strength, giving him the ability to impact the game in a multitude of ways. Plus speed makes him a threat on the basepaths and in the outfield, and it helps him get down the line quickly from the left side. His bat has a chance to be special, especially if he can prove his crazy 2020 line was not a mirage. The Indianapolis-area native has a knack for hard contact, consistently squaring the ball up for above average power and plenty of balls in the gaps, where his speed becomes an asset. His strong arm is another above average tool, and if he can refine his reads and routes, he could be a plus defensive center fielder. If not, he should be above average in right field either way.

The big ding in Richardson’s profile is plate discipline, and that’s an important one. He has a very aggressive approach at the plate that leads to considerable swing and miss, and he rarely walks. It hasn’t hampered him yet, but scouts will be watching closely in 2021 now that his potent bat is no longer a secret. When Big Ten pitchers like the four above him on this list adjust to him, will he be able to adjust back? Will he at least chase less, so scouts can be more confident he’ll work pro pitching? Set to turn 22 on Day Three of the draft, he’ll be a little older than many other players in the class, but not by much.

6. RHP McCade Brown, Indiana

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’6″, 200 lbs. Born 8/15/2000. Hometown: Normal, IL

2019-2020: 0-2, 14.86 ERA, 2.85 WHIP, 11/13 K/BB in 6.2 IP.

After a brief hiatus, we’re back on the “towering pitchers without track record” theme, and McCade Brown takes it to the extreme. If you started off looking at the stats, you might be scratching your head to see Brown listed as the #6 prospect in the Big Ten. I mean, in two years with the program, Brown has pitched in just six games, tossed just 6.2 innings, and allowed eleven runs while walking thirteen. That’s a walk rate over 30%. But this kid is special, and we’re not here to scout the stat line.

Obviously, if he’s ranked this high with those kind of stats, it must be the stuff, right? Correct. At his best, Brown’s stuff is right up there with Seth Lonsway and Sean Burke for the best in the Big Ten. The fastball sits low to mid 90’s in short stints and can hit 96, with nice arm side run that makes it tough to square up. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, but it can be devastating when it’s on. His curveball can be an absolute hammer with late, deep tilt and eleven to five movement. In the video above, he rattles off some eye-popping ones. His slider can flash plus as well, with short, tight bite that comes on late. He rounds it out with a changeup that’s probably his fourth pitch.

All of that is great, of course, and but we’re not here to rank bullpen sessions. Brown has to put up some real numbers this year, and even before consistency comes into play, he has to improve on 30-grade command. The 6’6″ righty loses his arm slot often, tending to cast or yank his pitches and miss badly. Slight improvements to get to even 40-grade command could do wonders for his draft stock, but 30 won’t play on Day One. Then of course if he wants to be a pro starter, he needs to hold his stuff deep into games and show the ability to spin the ball on a consistent basis, not just on “on” days. Fortunately, our Illinoisan prodigy is young for the class and won’t turn 21 until a month after the draft, giving him that much more development time.

7. 1B Maxwell Costes, Maryland

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 215 lbs. Born 7/1999. Hometown: Baltimore, MD

2019-2020: 19 HR, .295/.444/.581, 4 SB, 61/44 K/BB in 73 games.

Maxwell Costes might not appeal to traditional scouts as a right-right 1B/LF type, but man, can this kid put on a show at the plate. He was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2019 when he slashed .266/.397/.547 with 15 home runs in 58 games, but that turned out to be his low point as a hitter. He slashed .380/.514/.789 with 15 home runs that summer in the Perfect Game Collegiate Baseball League, then hit .432/.620/.750 with four home runs as a sophomore last year. Put those together, and you have 19 home runs and a .392/.543/.780 line over 57 games in a calendar year – the PGCBL isn’t the most elite summer league around, but you don’t luck into those kinds of numbers.

Costes is no toolshed, but he just hits. Built like a truck at 6’1″, he can absolutely smoke a baseball with brute strength and a loose swing from the right side. His raw power plays way up in games, with 34 home runs in college/summer ball so far, giving him some of the best in-game power is not just the Big Ten, but the college class as a whole. The Baltimore native is not just a one-tool player, as he’s been more than willing to take walks – and get hit – as pitchers stopped pitching to him. In the batters box, he’s been the complete package so far.

I’m going to throw a Brent Rooker comp on here. Rooker, like Costes, was a right-right corner bat that didn’t sign the first year he was eligible, and went back to school to prove his bat. Because of his lack of tools, Rooker had to absolutely explode at the plate to push himself into Day One draft consideration, and Costes may have to do the same without the benefit of SEC competition to show it’s “real.” He has the strong 2019 under his belt, but he didn’t face the strongest competition in the PGCBL or in 2020, and the Big Ten isn’t the strongest conference either. He’ll have to hit a lot to prove it, but I’m optimistic and I think he could be an impact hitter in pro ball.

8. RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 200 lbs. Born 8/19/1997. Hometown: Cass City, MI

2017-2020: 10-15, 4.24 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 163/79 K/BB in 195.1 IP.

Mason Erla will be nearly 24 (!) on draft day, making him the oldest draft prospect I’ve ever written about. Erla, who is already relatively old for his class, was draft-eligible in 2019, but he was coming off a 5.49 ERA and 16% strikeout rate and went undrafted. 2020 was a completely different story, when he put up a 1.04 ERA and 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings, including an absolute gem against Troy to end the season (7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 12 K). However, he went unselected in the shortened draft, and now the 23 year old is going to give it one more shot.

Erla’s exceptional 2020 was no fluke. Always more of a control/command guy more than a stuff guy, his fastball jumped into the low to mid 90’s, now topping out around 96. Like Seth Lonsway, the fastball plays well above its impressive velocity, coming from a low three quarters release that puts considerable ride on the pitch. By far, that fastball is now his best attribute. The secondary stuff is just that, secondary, with a solid-average tight curveball and a changeup, helped by above average command.

The 6’4″ right hander has a nice #4 starter profile with a plus fastball, two usable offspeed pitches, good command, and a sturdy frame. However, his age complicates things. If a drafting team wants to develop Erla as a starter, they may have to wait until he’s 26 or 27 to see him in the majors, and only as a back-end guy. Putting him in the bullpen, where he could pitch more effectively off that fastball, could help him move much more quickly and get there around age 25. Either way, I see him as a high floor, low ceiling type, and one who could be a big time money saver.

9. RHP Garrett Burhenn, Ohio State

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 215 lbs. Born 9/12/1999. Hometown: Indianapolis, IN

2019-2020: 8-6, 4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 98/35 K/BB in 112.1 IP.

This is a complex one, but very interesting. Garrett Burhenn showed well in his freshman season in 2019, putting up a 3.96 ERA and a 69/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings, but a bad start vs Georgia Tech in 2020 caused his ERA to balloon to 8.02 despite a sharp 29/4 K/BB. Personally, I wasn’t a huge fan and originally left him off this list, but then after more data and digging, noting significant improvement during the shutdown. Let’s jump in.

During his career in Columbus, Burhenn has shown average stuff with a low 90’s fastball, a slider, and a changeup. He’s always pounded the strike zone, but he tended to get hit hard when his pitches caught too much plate. Since the shutdown, McRae noted that he substituted a curveball for his changeup, and he’s worked to increase the spin rates on all of his pitches. The results have been promising, as he now shows tighter breaking pitches while making his solid-average velocity play up. I’m not here to call him the next Bryce Jarvis, but those are promising developments.

Burhenn’s control is ahead of his command, and previously that left him as a “jack of all trades, master of none” type of arm. Now, if he can generate more swings and misses in the zone, he has a chance to play up to a #3 or #4 starter. I’m very curious to see how he comes out of the gate in 2021, with the chance to move quickly up draft boards by proving his new stuff is for real. Down the road, he’ll likely want to pick that changeup back up, and tightening his command in the strike zone will help as well. There will be a lot of eyes on him in 2021, that’s for sure.

10. RHP Willie Weiss, Michigan

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’3″, 205 lbs. Born 3/3/2000. Hometown: Portland, OR

2019: 2-2, 2.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 50/32 K/BB in 39.1 IP.

We’ll close out with a sleeper pick. Willie Weiss was a key cog in that famous 2019 Michigan pitching staff, earning key innings in relief of current pros Tommy Henry (ARI), Karl Kauffmann (COL), and Jeff Criswell (OAK). In 27 appearances, he had a 2.97 ERA and a 50/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings as a true freshman, closing it out with a scoreless appearance against Vanderbilt in the CWS championship. However, a minor triceps injury sidelined him for the start of the 2020 season, and the pandemic meant he never got to work back in. Heading into 2021, Weiss has a lot to prove, but could work his way up draft boards in a hurry.

Weiss sat in the upper 80’s and scraped the low 90’s in high school, but there were reports of him hitting as high as 94-95 as a freshman at Michigan. He also flashes a sharp slider that can miss bats as well, and the two pitches helped him strike out 27.8% of his opponents. At this point, he needs to work on his changeup, which is his third pitch.

The fact that we haven’t seen Weiss since his freshman year means there could be significant untapped potential here. With two good pitches, a sturdy 6’3″ build, and plenty of big game experience, there are starter traits here. However, his closed off delivery can make it difficult to get back on line towards the plate, causing his arm slot to wander and miss spots. Even more important than developing the changeup at this point will be getting more consistent with that delivery, as it’s hard to feel comfortable projecting someone as a starter with 40 command. Michigan has a great track record of producing arms, and a cleaned up Weiss could make some noise in 2021.

Other Interesting Options

East Arms

I know baseball doesn’t use the divisional format, but we’ll go with football divisions to break up this section. At Maryland, where Sean Burke has plenty of draft buzz and Maxwell Costes has some eye-popping track record to his name, Sam Bello is a bit more of a sleeper. The 6’3″, 225 pound New Yorker is draft-eligible as a sophomore, coming off a short but successful freshman season where he struck out eleven and walked two over 6.2 strong innings. Built like a tank, he attacks hitters with a low 90’s fastball and a nice slider, commanding both pretty well. He has a lot to prove in 2021, but with plenty of on-paper starter traits, he might not be a sleeper anymore once he gets some Big Ten innings under his belt.

Behind Steven Hajjar and Willie Weiss, Michigan has another interesting option in Cameron Weston. The 6’1″, 200 pound sophomore from the Pittsburgh area is draft-eligible this year with an August 27th birthday, the very last day before the cutoff. He’s a fastball/splitter pitcher that sits in the low 90’s, with a clean delivery and starter’s built. On the docket for 2021, aside from building up some track record, will be sharpening his breaking ball into a usable offering.

Down south, Big Ten rival Ohio State has another interesting arm behind Seth Lonsway and Garrett Burhenn. Meanwhile, Jack Neely is a very different pitcher. The San Antonio native began his career at Texas, but put up a 14.90 ERA as a freshman and transferred to Iowa Western CC. There, he was about as dominant as you can be, striking out 17 and walking four over eleven shutout innings, allowing just one hit along the way. The towering 6’9″, 230 pound righty now comes to Ohio State with a low 90’s fastball that plays up due to tremendous extension, but the rest of his game needs a lot of work. Neely’s secondary stuff is fringy at best, and while his command took a step forward in 2020, it’s still well below average. Further improvement in either his breaking balls or command could bode very well for him in 2021.

East Bats

Our headliner in this group is Michigan catcher Jimmy Obertop. A top recruit from the St. Louis-area high school ranks, he’s draft-eligible as a sophomore after hitting .265/.375/.353 in eleven games. If you’re a college baseball fan, you might also recognize him from his viral ejection against Vanderbilt in his very first game. To this point, the ample strength he packs into his 6’1″, 220 pound frame is his best attribute. It gives him above average raw power to work with and a strong arm behind the plate, while a disciplined approach at the plate should help him make the most of it. However, he’s not the most athletic catcher in the draft, needing considerable refinement in his movement behind the plate. His power is also more a product of strength than bat speed, so he’ll need to prove himself against velocity.

A short trip across the middle of the state brings us to Michigan State‘s Zaid Walker. The Chicago-area native has had a nice start to his Spartan career, slashing .281/.305/.375 with a pair of home runs in 62 games, and he’s hoping for a breakout in 2021. Walker does a lot of things well, with a line drive bat, some power to tap into, speed, and a good arm. At this point, he lacks a true carrying tool, so putting it all together for a strong season in East Lansing in 2021 will be his ticket to louder draft buzz. Toning down his hyper-aggressive approach could aid that endeavor.

West Arms

Outside of the top ten, arguably the loudest stuff in the Big Ten draft class belongs to Illinois right hander Aidan Maldonado. The Twin Cities native has put up ugly numbers in Urbana-Champaign (6.28 ERA, 34/40 K/BB), but also looked great in the Cape Cod League (3.20 ERA, 32/7 K/BB), so he’s a bit of an enigma. At his best, he can touch 96 with his fastball and hold it in the mid 90’s for innings at a time, adding in a sharp, bat-missing slider. However, at other times, the stuff can flatten out and he can get hit hard. The inconsistency in his stuff is compounded by command that fluctuates between 30 and 45, and he’s a bit undersized a 6′, 170 lbs. Smoothing out the pronounced stabbing motion in the back of his delivery could help, but unless he gets much more consistent with everything, he’s likely a reliever.

JP Massey will get most of the attention at Minnesota, but two-way prospect Sam Ireland is a sleeper behind him. The Denver-area native was better as a hitter (.303/.361/.424) than as a pitcher (9.00 ERA, 10/8 K/BB) in his short freshman season, but a full 2021 will be more enlightening. On the mound, his fastball sits around 90 and can bump 92, complemented by an average slider and changeup. There is some power in his 6’4″ frame, though as a right/right corner bat, he’ll need to prove he can tap into it.

Out on the plains, Nebraska offers up a very interesting arm in Colby Gomes. The Cornhuskers’ closer in 2019, he was a starter in 2020 and didn’t fare as well. The Omaha native can sit in the low to mid 90’s with his fastball and adds a nice sharp slider, but to this point he hasn’t had much success in games (5.26 ERA, 24/15 K/BB). His delivery isn’t really conducive to starting, with very long arm action, a low three quarters arm slot, and a pronounced head whack, so I don’t expect him to put up big numbers in the rotation this year. He could be a real sleeper for a team looking to convert him back to relief.

West Bats

Handling Aidan Maldonado and that Illinois pitching staff will be Jacob Campbell, a Wisconsin native who has hit just .197/.303/.280 over two years with the Illini. He’s obviously a glove-first prospect that stands out for his blocking and receiving, so teams will be interested regardless of how he hits. That said, if he wants to be anything more than org depth, he has to take a step forward with the bat. He shows a nice, loose swing with some pop, but even though he doesn’t have a crazy amount of swing and miss, he just doesn’t find the barrel often enough to tap it. Incremental steps towards squaring the ball up more often could make him a solid backup.

The Illini will also have shortstop Branden Comia, fresh off a red hot .426/.526/.702 start to his 2020 season. A bit undersized at 5’10”, Comia has great feel for the barrel and has shown surprising gap and over the fence power at Illinois, but that hasn’t been the case in two summers in the Northwoods League (.200/.341/.270). He has a short swing that’s more geared towards line drives and ground balls, and his lack of production with wood bats makes it hard to project more than 40 or 45 power on him for the future. He’ll also want to cut down on his swing and miss a bit, but with a solid glove that will keep him in the middle infield, the bat will have some slack.

Out in Lincoln, Nebraska shortstop Spencer Schwellenbach has been one of the Big Ten more consistent hitters as of late. The Michigan native has a career .281/.407/.394 line with six home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 52/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, giving off a “high floor, low ceiling” vibe. He’s a patient hitter with some ambush power, though his swing can get a little loopy and the barrel isn’t always in the zone for long. That has led to a fringe-average hit tool where you’d like to see a bit better given his profile. A shortstop for now, he can make it work at the premium position but fits better at second base.