The first farm system in this series, the Red Sox don't have much going on down here. This system is most notable for its pair of mashing corner infielders, Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas. Those two could join Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis in making up a high-powered middle of the order if everything breaks right, though Dalbec and Casas do come with significant swing and miss concerns. On the pitching side, Bryan Mata has the highest ceiling while Noah Song and Thad Ward are the more balanced options. Song may have to sit out the next two seasons while fulfilling a Naval commitment, but if he can somehow manage to get out of it, he would immediately become the system's top pitching prospect and could be a future #2 or #3 starter. So long story short, it's a barren system, but Dalbec, Casas, Mata, Song, and Ward give the team at least something to look forward to.
Affiliates: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs, High A Salem Red Sox, Class A Greenville Drive, short season Lowell Spinners, complex level GCL and DSL Red Sox
*Players are split by position and listed in order of a combination of closeness to the majors and prospect status. They are not ordered by prospect status alone.
Catcher
- Jaxx Groshans (2020 Age: 21-22): The Red Sox really only have one catcher in their system that could be considered a true prospect, and that's 2019 fifth rounder Jaxx Groshans. He hit .340/.475/.604 with 12 home runs as a junior at Kansas, then held his own with a .216/.314/.345 slash line, four home runs, and most notably, a strong 34/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at short season Lowell in his pro debut. He doesn't stand out in any one aspect of his game but with some power, some plate discipline, and decent but improving defense, not to mention a strong work ethic, he has the chance to develop into a backup catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Austin Rei, Kole Cottam
Corner Infield
- Bobby Dalbec (2020 Age: 24-25): Dalbec is arguably the team's most exciting prospect, possessing some of the best raw power in minor league baseball and showcasing it with 59 home runs over the past two seasons. He's always been known for that big raw power, though questions about his ability to get to it at Arizona pushed him down to the fourth round. He's proven the doubters wrong so far in pro ball, getting to it plenty regularly, and he slashed .239/.356/.460 with 27 home runs and a 139/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket this year. The 31.9% strikeout rate this year was a bit concerning, though he partially offset it with a 13% walk rate. It's still not certain whether he'll be able to get to his power regularly in pro ball with all that swing and miss, but he has the potential to club 30 or more home runs per season with middling on-base percentages. He may be able to handle third base with his cannon arm and average range, but Rafael Devers' presence means he'll probably move to first base, where he should be an above average defender. Expect him in the majors at some point in 2020.
- Triston Casas (2020 Age: 20): Other than Casas being left handed, he has almost the exact same profile as Dalbec. The 2018 first round pick out of a South Forida high school slashed .256/.350/.480 with 20 home runs and a 118/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games mostly at Class A Greenville, showcasing light tower power and elite exit velocities. His swing is a bit long and while it wasn't a massive issue in Class A (23.6% strikeout rate), it might catch up to him a bit at the higher levels. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Dalbec, but he's more likely to end up at first base. Overall, Casas provides a potential 30 homer bat with solid on-base percentages, but he'll have to watch the length in his swing and be sure to keep that strikeout rate in check.
- Devlin Granberg (2020 Age: 24): A sixth round pick out of Dallas Baptist in 2018, Granberg hit .300/.383/.435 in his pro debut then .286/.386/.434 with eight home runs and a 79/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at Greenville, though he was old for the league and struggled a bit in a 25 game promotion to High A Salem (.222/.273/.289). He's had a long track record of hitting right up until that promotion to High A, but his bat is just a bit light for a first baseman and he'll need to take another step forward to profile there in the majors. He is a competent enough hitter to do so.
- Brandon Howlett (2020 Age: 20): Howlett doesn't have the same upside as Dalbec or Casas, but he has a chance to be a solid platoon or bench player in the future. An up and down high school career left scouts wondering who he would be, and after signing overslot in the 21st round, he slashed .289/.402/.513 in his pro debut last year. That dropped to .231/.341/.356 with eight home runs and a 144/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at Greenville this year, and we're back to wondering who he is. He has a compact swing and a solid approach at the plate that should help his average raw power translate up, and he could get hot and push his way towards a starting role down the line, but for now Howlett is a bit more of an afterthought in a Red Sox farm system that's at its deepest at this position.
- Danny Diaz (2020 Age: 19): Another guy with a similar profile to Dalbec and Casas, Diaz signed for $1.6 million out of Venezuela in 2017 and flashed some power in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2018. However, he was limited to 38 games across two complex levels and slashed just .238/.295/.385 with a pair of home runs and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio this year. He has big raw power from the right side, but his long swing and so-so plate discipline have kept him from getting to it so far. He still has big upside and will play all of 2020 at 19 years old, but at some point we'd like to see some production.
- Keep an eye on: Josh Tobias, Nick Northcut
Middle Infield
- C.J. Chatham (2020 Age: 25): After battling injuries early in his pro career, the former second round pick out of FAU has methodically climbed the ladder and slashed .298/.333/.408 with five home runs and an 87/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket this year. Despite standing 6'3", he doesn't have a ton of pop and instead relies on strong bat to ball skills to spray line drives around and make things happen. A strong enough defender to profile well at shortstop, he's blocked there by Xander Bogaerts and may have a better chance of breaking through at second base. However, because his high batting averages tend to be fairly empty, he may not have the bat to profile as a starter there and looks more like a strong utility infielder. Expect him in the majors early in 2020.
- Cameron Cannon (2020 Age: 22): If we're being honest, there really isn't another viable middle infield prospect in this system until you get down to the low minors, where Cameron Cannon slashed a disappointing .200/.284/.324 with three home runs and a 42/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games in his pro debut. The second rounder out of Arizona in 2019, Bobby Dalbec's alma mater, opened eyes with his hard-nosed style of play, line drive approach, and sneaky pop from a 5'10" package. While the rough run through the New York-Penn League is worth noting, it's not enough to take too much away from Cannon's potential to be an important bat down the line, one who could hit 15-20 home runs in the majors with good on-base percentages. He might be a little stretched at shortstop, but he should be an above average defender at second base and his bat can profile there.
- Matthew Lugo (2020 Age: 18-19): Picked shortly after Cannon in the 2019 draft, Lugo hit .257/.342/.331 with a home run and a 36/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 39 games in complex ball in his pro debut before picking up two hits in as many games in a short run through the New York-Penn League. The Puerto Rican has a very athletic build and lots of projection from a 6'1" frame, and while he's very raw as a player now, it's easy to project him as an above average hitter in all aspects. Of course, the 18 year old has a long way to go to get there, but he has the best chance of any player in this section to start at shortstop one day. His defense is average there but he should be able to stick if the Red Sox are patient.
- Antoni Flores (2020 Age: 19): Signed in the same international class as Danny Diaz for $1.4 million out of Venezuela, Flores has also struggled and hit just .193/.293/.227 with a 59/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at short season Lowell. He has some power projection and could stick at shortstop, but his carrying tool is supposed to be his on-base ability and that has not manifested yet. Just 19 for all of 2020, we'll see if it does this coming year.
- Keep an eye on: Ryan Fitzgerald
Outfield
- Jarren Duran (2020 Age: 23): One of the only offensive prospects to exceed expectations in 2019, Duran slashed .387/.456/.543 across 50 games at High A Salem, then regressed to a more human .250/.309/.325 in 82 games at AA Portland. Overall, that's a .303/.367/.408 line with five home runs, 46 stolen bases, and a 128/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games. Duran won't ever hit for much power but he has quick hands that can help the barrel find the ball with regularity, and his plus speed helps him wreak havoc on the basepaths and run down fly balls in the outfield, and if he can improve his routes enough to stick in center field, he could profile as a starter in the near future. However, the way his bat quieted down in AA should temper expectations just enough to show that this isn't the next Andrew Benintendi, and his bat might be just a bit light for right field unless that proves to be an aberration. Either way, he has the floor of a speedy fourth outfielder.
- Marcus Wilson (2020 Age: 23-24): Acquired from the Mariners for Blake Swihart, Marcus Wilson has been very inconsistent in his minor league career but has shown enough during his ups to profile well as a prospect. Between High A and AA this year, he slashed .269/.357/.492 with 18 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 142/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games, though most of that production was concentrated in his time with Salem. He has a solid power/speed combination that stands out in this shallow farm system, and he's gotten to it enough to profile at least as a strong fourth outfielder down the line. While Duran has the leg up as a prospect due to his superior speed and contact ability, Wilson does have more power and is close enough in speed that he could leapfrog Duran if he can stick in center field and get to his power regularly at the next level.
- Gilberto Jimenez (2020 Age: 19-20): While Danny Diaz and Antoni Flores signed for a combined $3 million out of Venezuela in 2017, Gilberto Jimenez came from the Dominican Republic for just $10,000 and has outplayed both of them by a long shot. After a .319/.384/.420 turn through the Dominican Summer League in 2018, he skipped the Gulf Coast League and tore up the New York-Penn League with a .359/.393/.470 slash line, three home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 38/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games with short season Lowell. Slight in stature at 5'11" and 160 pounds, he found a ton of success by simply throwing his hands at the ball and letting his speed do the rest. The Red Sox knew he could do that when they signed him, but he found the barrel more often than expected and has blossomed into a potential leadoff man in the future. He has a lot to prove, but with a similar profile to Jarren Duran at four years younger, he could be a dynamic talent down the line.
- Nick Decker (2020 Age: 20): A power hitting right fielder from central New Jersey, Decker slashed .247/.328/.471 with six home runs and a 59/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at Lowell this year. He gets to his power fairly frequently and those doubles and triples should translate into more home runs down the line, and while he hasn't done a ton to get himself noticed in this shallow farm system, he's a breakout candidate for 2020 as a potential future 20-25 home run bat with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Tyler Esplin, Stephen Scott
Starting Pitching
- Kyle Hart (2020 Age: 27): Hart turns 27 this offseason, but he did enough in the upper minors in 2019 to get himself noticed. The former 19th round pick as a redshirt-senior out of Indiana had a 3.52 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 140/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 156 innings between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket, using solid command and advanced pitchability to navigate lineups. He only throws about 90 miles per hour with average breaking pitches, but he mixes his pitches well and can drop in a strong changeup to keep hitters off balance. He's likely no more than a #5 starter, but any lefty who could hold a 3.86 ERA in AAA with those juiced balls deserves attention and he'll have a shot at the Boston rotation in 2020.
- Bryan Mata (2020 Age: 20-21): If Hart is all about floor, then Mata is all about ceiling. The Venezuelan product shut down High A with a 1.75 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 52/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings with Greenville, though he was more hittable with AA Portland and had a 5.03 ERA and a 59/24 strikeout to walk ratio across 53.2 innings. He has a lot of moving parts in his delivery, but his whippy arm produces mid to upper 90's fastballs with sink and he has begun introducing a sharp, bat-missing slider to go along with his fading changeup. His control comes and goes, but he has good body control for a 20 year old and should be able to throw enough strikes to make his whole arsenal play up. It's hard to project him as a true ace, but Mata is continually developing and could be a #2 or #3 starter who debuts in 2021 or, if we're lucky, 2020.
- Denyi Reyes (2020 Age: 23): Reyes absolutely dominated A ball in 2018 to the tune of a 1.97 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP, though he was more human in 2019 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 116/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 151.1 innings at AA Portland. Never one to blow hitters away or show sharp offspeed pitches, Reyes has continually survived on pitchability and command and has proven himself at every level he's pitched at. Like Hart, he's probably nothing more than a #4 or #5 starter, but he has a high floor and could contribute in the rotation in 2020.
- Thad Ward (2020 Age: 23): From a pitching perspective, Thad Ward was the best thing to happen to the Red Sox system in 2019. A relatively unremarkable fifth round pick as a reliever out of UCF in 2018, Ward transitioned to starting with the Red Sox and his stuff has taken an unexpected step forward. He now operates with a low to mid 90's fastball and a diving slider that misses bats, adding a changeup and throwing enough strikes to make it all work. That enabled him to post a 2.14 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 157/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. Whether he can reach his upside of a #3/#4 starter will be determined by whether he can keep his command together and by how durable he proves to be.
- Brayan Bello (2020 Age: 20-21): A bit of an older prospect when he signed for $28,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and when he put up video game numbers in complex ball in 2018 (1.60 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 74/10 K/BB), Bello skipped all the way to Class A Greenville in 2019 as a more age-appropriate 19-20 year old. Completely leapfrogging essentially from the Dominican Summer League to full season ball was tough, but he still posted a 5.43 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 119/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings in the South Atlantic League. A 6'1" kid with a slight stature, he has a live arm that produces low 90's fastballs with good angle as well as a sharp slider and a developing changeup. He throws strikes with all three pitches and while his command is nowhere close to pinpoint, he's ahead of many of his peers in that regard. He'll have to continue to sharpen that secondary stuff and, most importantly, prove his durability, but he has the chance to be a mid rotation starter down the line if he can. Otherwise, he's likely destined for the bullpen.
- Ryan Zeferjahn (2020 Age: 22): Zeferjahn has been inconsistent throughout his career, ever since he was a top prep prospect coming out of Topeka and through his time at Kansas, where he threw to fellow Red Sox draftee Jaxx Groshans. The 2019 third rounder posted a 4.50 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 innings for short season Lowell in his debut. His fastball/slider combination from a 6'5" frame makes him one of the tougher pitchers to square up, but his control has come and gone and often is his Achilles heel. Getting the big righty consistent with that command and helping him develop his changeup could make him something of a right handed Patrick Corbin, but there is significant relief risk here.
- Jay Groome (2020 Age: 21): What do we make of Jay Groome? A candidate to go first overall out of a Jersey Shore high school in 2016, he slipped to pick number 12 for a multitude of reasons, and now he's thrown just 66 innings in four pro seasons and just four innings over the past two seasons. When he's healthy, he can sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and add a hammer curveball that's almost impossible to square up. At 6'6", he's an imposing presence on the mound, but he just hasn't been able to stay there long enough to make anything of his future. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, he hopes to regain that lost prospect stock in 2020 and we can find out whether he's a future frontline starter.
- Noah Song (2020 Age: 22-23): It's hard to project Noah Song for the entirely different reasons than Groome. The 6'4" righty is your prototypical starting pitching prospect, coming at you with a four pitch mix of potentially above average offerings. That helped him put up unreal numbers at Navy (17-6, 1.67 ERA, 282/72 K/BB over junior/senior seasons) as well as at Lowell in the New York-Penn League (1.06 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 19/5 K/BB in 17 IP). However, Song may be required to serve two years in the Navy before he begins his pro career, which means we won't see him on a minor league mound again until 2022, when he'll be 25. However however, there's still a chance he may be able to get a deferment, which would immediately make him the top pitching prospect in the system and put him on the fast track to being a #3 starter in the majors.
- Keep an eye on: Kutter Crawford, Jake Thompson, Chase Shugart, Alex Scherff, Jhonathan Diaz
Relief Pitching
- Tanner Houck (2020 Age: 23-24): There's still a chance Houck starts at the major league level, and he posted a 4.25 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings as a starter at AA Portland this year, but he pitched mostly out of the bullpen at AAA Pawtucket and had a 3.24 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 27/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings there. He's a 6'4" righty with a low three quarters delivery that puts deceptive angle on his low to mid 90's fastball and swooping slider. However, between his so-so command and lack of a strong changeup, he's struggled to set himself apart in the Boston system despite being a first round pick out of Missouri in 2016. His stuff has a better chance of playing up as a reliever, where he can focus on his fastball/slider combination and really go full effort in that regard. In some roll or another, he should be in the majors at some point in 2020.
- Mike Shawaryn (2020 Age: 25): Shawaryn, like Houck, comes from a low three quarters delivery and may still be able to stick in the rotation. He split time between the bullpen and the rotation at AAA Pawtucket this year, posting a 4.52 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 76/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings there. He also got knocked around in a brief major league call-up out of the bullpen, posting a 9.74 ERA and a 29/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 20.1 innings. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball but adds a sweepy slider that misses bats, and his average command helps his deception play up a bit. The stuff is probably just a little light to stick in the rotation, especially after seeing what happened in his MLB call-up, but with a bit more refinement he could be a deceptive reliever in 2020.
- Durbin Feltman (2020 Age: 23): A third round pick out of TCU in 2018, Feltman was supposed to move quickly through the minors and he started to do just that with a 1.93 ERA and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut. However, his stuff took a step back in 2019 as he posted a 5.26 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 54/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at AA Portland. Feltman's fastball dipped into the mid 90's while his slider softened up a bit, exposing his so-so command that could typically hide behind his upper 90's heat and wipeout slider. Getting his stuff back in 2020 could make him a set-up man and perhaps more, but if it doesn't come back, he profiles more as a middle reliever.
- Eduard Bazardo (2020 Age: 24): Though he had a 2.67 ERA and an 84/8 strikeout to walk ratio as a starter in 2018, the Red Sox shifted the 155 pounder to the bullpen in 2019 and he continued to impress, posting a 2.21 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings between High A Salem and AA Portland. His fastball sits in the low 90's and sometimes bumps the mid 90's, but his power curveball, command, and slight deception help his stuff play up. He's a more complete product than Feltman, and while he can't match his upside, he has a higher floor and should be at least a middle reliever in the near future.
- Keep an eye on: Travis Lakins, Bobby Poyner, Yoan Aybar, Dominic LoBrutto
Showing posts with label Bryan Mata. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bryan Mata. Show all posts
Sunday, November 10, 2019
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Reviewing the Boston Red Sox Farm System
A few years ago, the Red Sox were loaded with guys like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, and Anderson Espinoza, but trades and graduations mean none of them are left in the system. At this point, it's pretty barren and lacks impact prospects, though they do have a nice collection of power bats as well as some live arms with upside. Most of the pitching talent, save for Jay Groome, is closer to the big leagues while the bottom of the system lacks much in terms of marketable arms.
Affiliates: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs, High A Salem Red Sox, Class A Greenville Drive, Short Season Lowell Spinners, complex level GCL and DSL Red Sox
Power Bats: 3B Michael Chavis, 3B Bobby Dalbec, 1B Josh Ockimey, 1B Triston Casas, OF Nick Decker, 3B Nick Northcut, 3B Danny Diaz, and C Roldani Baldwin
As will be the theme with this farm system, no one player stands out in this group. All of these players come with significant power upside but also struggle with contact, and with Rafael Devers holding down third base, they'll likely all have to compete for the first base job. 23 year old Michael Chavis is closest to the majors, having bounced back from a PED suspension to slash .298/.381/.538 with nine home runs in 46 games between short season ball, AA Portland, and AAA Pawtucket. The fact that he could still slug .538 even after the suspension was a big positive for his prospect stock, and while his plate discipline is improving, he has more work to do if he wants to catch up to major league pitching. There is a good chance he sees the majors in 2019. Right behind him is 23 year old Bobby Dalbec, who strikes out a ton but who seems to defy the odds and continue producing with every promotion. This year, he slashed .257/.361/.558 between High A Salem and AA Portland and was among the minor league leaders with 32 home runs (among 70 extra base hits), and while he had a nice 12.2% walk rate, his strikeout rate was a troubling 32.4%. It seems that should cause problems at AA and AAA, but he fared well enough in his taste of AA this year from a production standpoint (.261/.323/.514, 37.1% K rate) that one could envision an Aaron Judge-lite scenario where he continues to produce even with mounting strikeout totals up the ladder, though probably not at Judge's levels. A third 23 year old, Josh Ockimey, is behind those two on the depth chart and looks more like a platoon bat, having slashed .245/.356/.455 with 20 home runs between Portland and Pawtucket this season. He also strikes out a lot, but he walks a ton and shouldn't be overlooked. Lower down in the minors, 18 year old Triston Casas leads the pack of young power hitters. The 2018 first round draft pick (26th overall) out of a south Florida high school had a season ending thumb injury in just his second pro game, but his long swing produces massive power paralleled only by Dalbec in this system. I have concerns about the length of his swing, but if he can keep it under control and keep the barrel in the zone for a long enough portion of it, his power/patience combination could make him the system's top prospect next year. The swing is just really long and that worries me. Following Casas in the draft were a pair of high school Nicks, 19 year olds Nick Decker and Nick Northcut. Decker, a second round pick (64th overall) out of southern New Jersey, has a similar profile to Casas, while Northcut, an eleventh rounder out of the Cincinnati area who fell due to signability, hits a little differently. Decker has a long swing like Casas, though he isn't as big and doesn't generate quite as much power. Northcut is also smaller but generates his power through bat speed, and while his swing isn't quite as long, he still struggles with contact. Personally, I like Northcut better than Decker as a prospect. 17 year old Danny Diaz slashed .238/.283/.476 in complex ball in the Dominican this year, showing big power with big contact concerns (notice a trend?). He's a long, long way off, but his big power potential gives him a high ceiling. Lastly, 22 year old catcher Roldani Baldwin followed up a great 2017 (14 HR, .274/.310/.489 at Class A Greenville) with a disappointing 2018 (7 HR, .233/.282/.371 at High A Salem), struggling to do much damage against more advanced pitching. There is still some upside in the bat because the power is there, but unfortunately his defense needs work and he may need to move to first base, which would not be ideal for his bat.
High Upside Pitchers: Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, and Durbin Feltman
While this group of pitchers is not particularly deep, all five of these pitchers have the potential to take a step forward and become frontline or mid rotation starters (or a closer in Feltman's case). Of course, they also come with high risk, and with only five, the Sox will likely only get one or two impact pitchers out of the group. The highest upside belongs to 6'6", 20 year old lefty Jay Groome. Groome had a chance to go first overall in the 2016 draft, but character questions and signability problems dropped him to the Red Sox at twelfth. He then struggled at Class A Greenville in 2017 (6.70 ERA, 58/25 K/BB in 44.1 IP) before sitting out all of 2018 with forearm issues and then May Tommy John surgery, and he'll miss a big chunk of 2019 with that surgery as well. Groome still has all the makings of a future ace with great stuff and a big frame, but he struggles to control it and hasn't stayed healthy long enough to fix that control. 19 year old Bryan Mata, meanwhile, was spent the year up at High A Salem and managed a 3.50 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 61/58 strikeout to walk ratio in 72 innings. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a great changeup, but he struggles with control and misses the zone quite a bit. The skinny 6'3" righty is way ahead of the development curve and has plenty of time to get it right, and he could be a #2 starter when it's all said and done if he can start throwing strikes over the next few years. 21 year old Darwinzon Hernandez, meanwhile, spent most of the year at Salem and threw a few innings at AA Portland at the end, finishing with a 3.53 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 134/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 innings. The big lefty is older than Mata but throws a little harder, though he does struggle with command. If he can get that command down, he can be a mid-rotation starter, but Mata's upside is of course higher. 22 year old Tanner Houck performed reasonably for Salem this year, posting a 4.24 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 111/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings. The 6'5" righty comes from from a funky three quarters arm slot, and while his slider is improving, he still has risk of becoming a reliever. A righty with a similar delivery that is covered in the next section, Mike Shawaryn, had a breakout year in the Sox system this year and Boston will hope Houck can take a similar step forward. He's not necessarily behind the age curve, but 2018 makes his first round selection (24th overall) in 2017 look a little bit suspect. Lastly, 21 year old Durbin Feltman is purely a relief prospect, but the 2018 draftee out of TCU could be in the majors by 2019. He tore up the minors in his pro debut, posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings across three levels, getting as high as Salem. His high effort delivery gives him a fastball that can hit 99 and a devastating slider, but also leads to control problems and limits him to the bullpen. Look for him in the Boston 'pen at some point next year.
Polished Arms: Mike Shawaryn, Kutter Crawford, Alex Scherff, Denyi Reyes, Jake Thompson, and Travis Lakins
While this group of pitchers doesn't have the upside, I think at least one will become a serviceable starting pitcher. I doubt they get more than two from this group (Lakins is a reliever anyways), because even though the upside isn't high with these guys, they don't have the floor generally associated with a team's top pitchability arms. That's just what happens when your system is thin like this. 24 year old Mike Shawaryn leads the pack as the best pitcher in this bunch, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket. The 6'2" righty is shorter than Tanner Houck, mentioned in the previous section, but has a similarly deceptive delivery that makes his stuff play up, and unlike Houck, he can control it well. While he lacks Houck's velocity, he has a great slider and looks like the better prospect at this point. He has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter and likely settles in as a #3 or a #4. A little down the depth chart is 22 year old Kutter Crawford, who finished up 2018 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 157/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. While the numbers were impressive and he has a deep arsenal of useable pitches, most of his stuff grades out as average and without the deception or command to make it play up, I don't see him as ending up as much more than a #5 starter. Even farther down is 20 year old Alex Scherff, a 6'3" righty who posted a 4.76 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings between Greenville and a few innings down at the complex level. He has better stuff than Crawford and therefore higher upside, though he needs to improve his curveball and his control is not as advanced as Crawford's. He could be as good as a #3 or #4 starter, but the risk is high. 22 year old Denyi Reyes is an interesting case. Over his minor league career, he is 32-7 with a 2.12 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 286/33 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2018, he went 12-5 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 145/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 155.2 innings between Greenville and Salem, using his command rather than his stuff to keep opponents off balance. Because his stuff grades out as just average, we need to see him above A ball to really know what he is capable of, but he can't do much better statistically than how he has already done. If he continues to hit the corners consistently and keep hitters off balance in the upper minors, that could translate into being a #4 or #5 starter in the majors. 24 year old Jake Thompson hasn't had nearly as much success in pro ball as he did at Oregon State, posting a 5.30 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 96/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings for Salem this year. He had a good combination of stuff and pitchability coming into the minors, but the stuff has backed up and his command has been so-so. While he has a deep arsenal, nothing really grades out as above average, and unlike Reyes he doesn't have the command to make up for it. He was so good in college that you can't give up just yet, but the early returns are not encouraging. Lastly, 24 year old Travis Lakins is a relief prospect who posted a 2.32 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 57/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings between Portland and Pawtucket this year. He's a fastball/cutter guy that can blow pitches by opponents, but while he has improved his command, he lacks a true breaking ball and the velocity can play down due to a lack of contrast. He looks like a middle reliever at this point, albeit one who could make the Opening Day roster.
Non-Power Hitters: SS C.J. Chatham, OF Cole Brannen, SS Antoni Flores, and 3B Brandon Howlett
As you can tell, the Red Sox have invested more heavily in power hitters than contact/speed oriented guys, something I tend to agree with. However, it's a testament to the lack of depth in this organization that there are really only four viable offensive prospects who have skills other than hitting for power, and none of these guys are really that good. 23 year old C.J. Chatham leads the pack, coming off a season where he slashed .314/.350/.389 with three home runs and an 84/26 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. He plays good defense at shortstop, which takes pressure off the bat, but while he's great at making contact, he doesn't do much else. The walk rate is low and there's virtually no power, so he looks like a utility guy at best. 20 year old Cole Brannen has gotten absolutely nothing going at the plate since being drafted in the second round (63rd overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2017, slashing just .169/.261/.205 with 21 stolen bases and a 90/30 strikeout to walk ratio between short season ball and Greenville this year. He's fast and can draw a walk, but the bat is just non-existent and something needs to dramatically change if he wants to even make it halfway up to the majors. 18 year old Antoni Flores has the highest ceiling in this section, coming off a pro debut where he slashed .340/.435/.528 with a home run and an 8/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in complex ball. It's best to avoid drawing conclusions from a small sample size in the low minors like that, but he has done everything asked of him so far and could develop into a usable shortstop down the line, though risk is obviously high. Lastly, 19 year old Brandon Howlett was just drafted out of a central Florida high school, and he immediately slashed .289/.402/.513 with six home runs and a nice 41/28 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and a few games in short season ball. There were concerns about his contact when he was drafted, but his solid approach has made up for them and so far, he has impressed enough to earn some attention in this otherwise barren farm system. He has a long way to go but could be a sleeper to develop into a usable third baseman.
Affiliates: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs, High A Salem Red Sox, Class A Greenville Drive, Short Season Lowell Spinners, complex level GCL and DSL Red Sox
Power Bats: 3B Michael Chavis, 3B Bobby Dalbec, 1B Josh Ockimey, 1B Triston Casas, OF Nick Decker, 3B Nick Northcut, 3B Danny Diaz, and C Roldani Baldwin
As will be the theme with this farm system, no one player stands out in this group. All of these players come with significant power upside but also struggle with contact, and with Rafael Devers holding down third base, they'll likely all have to compete for the first base job. 23 year old Michael Chavis is closest to the majors, having bounced back from a PED suspension to slash .298/.381/.538 with nine home runs in 46 games between short season ball, AA Portland, and AAA Pawtucket. The fact that he could still slug .538 even after the suspension was a big positive for his prospect stock, and while his plate discipline is improving, he has more work to do if he wants to catch up to major league pitching. There is a good chance he sees the majors in 2019. Right behind him is 23 year old Bobby Dalbec, who strikes out a ton but who seems to defy the odds and continue producing with every promotion. This year, he slashed .257/.361/.558 between High A Salem and AA Portland and was among the minor league leaders with 32 home runs (among 70 extra base hits), and while he had a nice 12.2% walk rate, his strikeout rate was a troubling 32.4%. It seems that should cause problems at AA and AAA, but he fared well enough in his taste of AA this year from a production standpoint (.261/.323/.514, 37.1% K rate) that one could envision an Aaron Judge-lite scenario where he continues to produce even with mounting strikeout totals up the ladder, though probably not at Judge's levels. A third 23 year old, Josh Ockimey, is behind those two on the depth chart and looks more like a platoon bat, having slashed .245/.356/.455 with 20 home runs between Portland and Pawtucket this season. He also strikes out a lot, but he walks a ton and shouldn't be overlooked. Lower down in the minors, 18 year old Triston Casas leads the pack of young power hitters. The 2018 first round draft pick (26th overall) out of a south Florida high school had a season ending thumb injury in just his second pro game, but his long swing produces massive power paralleled only by Dalbec in this system. I have concerns about the length of his swing, but if he can keep it under control and keep the barrel in the zone for a long enough portion of it, his power/patience combination could make him the system's top prospect next year. The swing is just really long and that worries me. Following Casas in the draft were a pair of high school Nicks, 19 year olds Nick Decker and Nick Northcut. Decker, a second round pick (64th overall) out of southern New Jersey, has a similar profile to Casas, while Northcut, an eleventh rounder out of the Cincinnati area who fell due to signability, hits a little differently. Decker has a long swing like Casas, though he isn't as big and doesn't generate quite as much power. Northcut is also smaller but generates his power through bat speed, and while his swing isn't quite as long, he still struggles with contact. Personally, I like Northcut better than Decker as a prospect. 17 year old Danny Diaz slashed .238/.283/.476 in complex ball in the Dominican this year, showing big power with big contact concerns (notice a trend?). He's a long, long way off, but his big power potential gives him a high ceiling. Lastly, 22 year old catcher Roldani Baldwin followed up a great 2017 (14 HR, .274/.310/.489 at Class A Greenville) with a disappointing 2018 (7 HR, .233/.282/.371 at High A Salem), struggling to do much damage against more advanced pitching. There is still some upside in the bat because the power is there, but unfortunately his defense needs work and he may need to move to first base, which would not be ideal for his bat.
High Upside Pitchers: Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, and Durbin Feltman
While this group of pitchers is not particularly deep, all five of these pitchers have the potential to take a step forward and become frontline or mid rotation starters (or a closer in Feltman's case). Of course, they also come with high risk, and with only five, the Sox will likely only get one or two impact pitchers out of the group. The highest upside belongs to 6'6", 20 year old lefty Jay Groome. Groome had a chance to go first overall in the 2016 draft, but character questions and signability problems dropped him to the Red Sox at twelfth. He then struggled at Class A Greenville in 2017 (6.70 ERA, 58/25 K/BB in 44.1 IP) before sitting out all of 2018 with forearm issues and then May Tommy John surgery, and he'll miss a big chunk of 2019 with that surgery as well. Groome still has all the makings of a future ace with great stuff and a big frame, but he struggles to control it and hasn't stayed healthy long enough to fix that control. 19 year old Bryan Mata, meanwhile, was spent the year up at High A Salem and managed a 3.50 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 61/58 strikeout to walk ratio in 72 innings. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a great changeup, but he struggles with control and misses the zone quite a bit. The skinny 6'3" righty is way ahead of the development curve and has plenty of time to get it right, and he could be a #2 starter when it's all said and done if he can start throwing strikes over the next few years. 21 year old Darwinzon Hernandez, meanwhile, spent most of the year at Salem and threw a few innings at AA Portland at the end, finishing with a 3.53 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 134/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 innings. The big lefty is older than Mata but throws a little harder, though he does struggle with command. If he can get that command down, he can be a mid-rotation starter, but Mata's upside is of course higher. 22 year old Tanner Houck performed reasonably for Salem this year, posting a 4.24 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 111/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings. The 6'5" righty comes from from a funky three quarters arm slot, and while his slider is improving, he still has risk of becoming a reliever. A righty with a similar delivery that is covered in the next section, Mike Shawaryn, had a breakout year in the Sox system this year and Boston will hope Houck can take a similar step forward. He's not necessarily behind the age curve, but 2018 makes his first round selection (24th overall) in 2017 look a little bit suspect. Lastly, 21 year old Durbin Feltman is purely a relief prospect, but the 2018 draftee out of TCU could be in the majors by 2019. He tore up the minors in his pro debut, posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings across three levels, getting as high as Salem. His high effort delivery gives him a fastball that can hit 99 and a devastating slider, but also leads to control problems and limits him to the bullpen. Look for him in the Boston 'pen at some point next year.
Polished Arms: Mike Shawaryn, Kutter Crawford, Alex Scherff, Denyi Reyes, Jake Thompson, and Travis Lakins
While this group of pitchers doesn't have the upside, I think at least one will become a serviceable starting pitcher. I doubt they get more than two from this group (Lakins is a reliever anyways), because even though the upside isn't high with these guys, they don't have the floor generally associated with a team's top pitchability arms. That's just what happens when your system is thin like this. 24 year old Mike Shawaryn leads the pack as the best pitcher in this bunch, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket. The 6'2" righty is shorter than Tanner Houck, mentioned in the previous section, but has a similarly deceptive delivery that makes his stuff play up, and unlike Houck, he can control it well. While he lacks Houck's velocity, he has a great slider and looks like the better prospect at this point. He has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter and likely settles in as a #3 or a #4. A little down the depth chart is 22 year old Kutter Crawford, who finished up 2018 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 157/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. While the numbers were impressive and he has a deep arsenal of useable pitches, most of his stuff grades out as average and without the deception or command to make it play up, I don't see him as ending up as much more than a #5 starter. Even farther down is 20 year old Alex Scherff, a 6'3" righty who posted a 4.76 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings between Greenville and a few innings down at the complex level. He has better stuff than Crawford and therefore higher upside, though he needs to improve his curveball and his control is not as advanced as Crawford's. He could be as good as a #3 or #4 starter, but the risk is high. 22 year old Denyi Reyes is an interesting case. Over his minor league career, he is 32-7 with a 2.12 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 286/33 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2018, he went 12-5 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 145/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 155.2 innings between Greenville and Salem, using his command rather than his stuff to keep opponents off balance. Because his stuff grades out as just average, we need to see him above A ball to really know what he is capable of, but he can't do much better statistically than how he has already done. If he continues to hit the corners consistently and keep hitters off balance in the upper minors, that could translate into being a #4 or #5 starter in the majors. 24 year old Jake Thompson hasn't had nearly as much success in pro ball as he did at Oregon State, posting a 5.30 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 96/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings for Salem this year. He had a good combination of stuff and pitchability coming into the minors, but the stuff has backed up and his command has been so-so. While he has a deep arsenal, nothing really grades out as above average, and unlike Reyes he doesn't have the command to make up for it. He was so good in college that you can't give up just yet, but the early returns are not encouraging. Lastly, 24 year old Travis Lakins is a relief prospect who posted a 2.32 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 57/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings between Portland and Pawtucket this year. He's a fastball/cutter guy that can blow pitches by opponents, but while he has improved his command, he lacks a true breaking ball and the velocity can play down due to a lack of contrast. He looks like a middle reliever at this point, albeit one who could make the Opening Day roster.
Non-Power Hitters: SS C.J. Chatham, OF Cole Brannen, SS Antoni Flores, and 3B Brandon Howlett
As you can tell, the Red Sox have invested more heavily in power hitters than contact/speed oriented guys, something I tend to agree with. However, it's a testament to the lack of depth in this organization that there are really only four viable offensive prospects who have skills other than hitting for power, and none of these guys are really that good. 23 year old C.J. Chatham leads the pack, coming off a season where he slashed .314/.350/.389 with three home runs and an 84/26 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. He plays good defense at shortstop, which takes pressure off the bat, but while he's great at making contact, he doesn't do much else. The walk rate is low and there's virtually no power, so he looks like a utility guy at best. 20 year old Cole Brannen has gotten absolutely nothing going at the plate since being drafted in the second round (63rd overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2017, slashing just .169/.261/.205 with 21 stolen bases and a 90/30 strikeout to walk ratio between short season ball and Greenville this year. He's fast and can draw a walk, but the bat is just non-existent and something needs to dramatically change if he wants to even make it halfway up to the majors. 18 year old Antoni Flores has the highest ceiling in this section, coming off a pro debut where he slashed .340/.435/.528 with a home run and an 8/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in complex ball. It's best to avoid drawing conclusions from a small sample size in the low minors like that, but he has done everything asked of him so far and could develop into a usable shortstop down the line, though risk is obviously high. Lastly, 19 year old Brandon Howlett was just drafted out of a central Florida high school, and he immediately slashed .289/.402/.513 with six home runs and a nice 41/28 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and a few games in short season ball. There were concerns about his contact when he was drafted, but his solid approach has made up for them and so far, he has impressed enough to earn some attention in this otherwise barren farm system. He has a long way to go but could be a sleeper to develop into a usable third baseman.
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