Showing posts with label Charlie Condon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charlie Condon. Show all posts

Sunday, October 6, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies usually have fun drafts, and this one was no different. While they played the bonus pool fairly straightforward, it was a class full of dynamic profiles brining a diverse array of tools to the table. They used their first two picks on arguably the top overall prospect and one of the nastiest pitchers in the class, focusing on hitters early (four of their first five picks) and pitchers later (twelve of their last sixteen picks). They were also the only team not to draft any high school players, prioritizing the near term (though the Yankees and Cardinals did not sign the one high schooler they each drafted).
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: OF Charlie Condon, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $9.07 million. Signing bonus: $9.25 million ($179,200 above slot value).
My rank: #2. MLB Pipeline: #2. Baseball America: #1.
Charlie Condon's ascent is nothing short of remarkable. A talented high school player, he did not receive a scholarship at Georgia and instead walked on with the Bulldogs. He didn't play at all as a freshman in 2022, but put the work in and exploded for a massive redshirt freshman season in 2023 in which he slashed .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games and was named National Freshman of the Year. Somehow, 2024 was even better as he put up an unbelievable season, slashing .433/.556/1.009 with 37 home runs in 60 games, winning the Golden Spikes Award and leading Division I in three of those four marks sans on-base percentage (third in D-I). Condon is an imposing presence in the box to say the least, clocking in at a lean and strong 6'6", and as you'd expect, he produces plus-plus raw power. It's a simple right handed swing and it's all natural – natural strength, natural leverage, natural loft. That helps him tap his prodigious power more consistently than anybody else, never selling out and mitigating the swing and miss problems that often occur with these towering power hitters. Condon has a professional approach at the plate and makes plenty of contact, going with the pitches he gets and keeping his strikeouts way down. It's a power-contact combination rarely seen in amateur baseball, giving him a chance for 35-40 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Now imagine that at Coors Field, and that's a scary thought. He's earned comps to Kris Bryant, which are apt, while Giancarlo Stanton could be another if he fills out a little more (though the swing is a little different). The Atlanta native has played all over the field, and while he doesn't necessarily shine at any one position in particular, he surprised evaluators with his athleticism this season and he could be solid average in right field. From Charlie Blackmon to Nolan Arenado to Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies have a long line of great hitters to come through their system, and Condon has a chance to be as good as any of them as the heir to the retiring Blackmon. It wasn't such smooth sailing upon an aggressive assignment to High A Spokane to begin his pro career, slashing .180/.248/.270 with one home run and a 34/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games, but he'll get it figured out.

CBA-38: RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $2.45 million. Signing bonus: $2.7 million ($247,800 above slot value).
My rank: #20. MLB Pipeline: #21. Baseball America: #28.
Brody Brecht is a really, really interesting arm with clear strengths and clear weaknesses. A three sport superstar athlete in high school who played football and ran track in addition to pitching, he earned top three rounds interest at the time but was dead set on attending Iowa. Brecht actually played wide receiver for the Hawkeyes football program and caught nine receptions for 87 yards as a sophomore, but he gave up the gridiron to focus on the diamond shortly after that. Meanwhile, his stuff got nastier and nastier on the mound and by 2024 he had one of the best two pitch punches in college baseball. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has reached 101 in the past, though the shape is average and leans towards the cutter side. His best pitch, and indeed one of the best pitches in all of college baseball, is a plus-plus slider that reaches 92 with hard, late, two-plane bite to miss bats at a ridiculous rate. When he executes its location, it's downright untouchable, and he leans heavily on it. Brecht has scrapped his curveball to focus on the slider, and he also occasionally adds a solid splitter that performed well when he pulled it out in 2024. Right now, the Des Moines-area native has below average command, though he has improved his walk rate all three years in Iowa City from 22.3% to 18.4% to 14.2%. That's still way too high, and Brecht often either leaves balls over the middle of the plate or misses his spot entirely with non-competitive pitches. It's a pretty free and easy delivery but he just doesn't repeat the release point as well as he could, and having explosive stuff like he does certainly doesn't help in that regard. The stuff is great enough that that shouldn't matter too much, but he has to at least get ahead in counts and keep the ball near the zone. I'm personally bullish in this regard, as he got stronger as the season went along and was at his best in late season starts against Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Michigan. The 6'4" righty has filled out nicely at Iowa and now looks the part of a durable starting pitcher with tremendous athleticism, with command really being the only thing holding him back from starting. If he can get the walk rate down to around 10-12%, he could be an impact starter in Colorado, as I expect the splitter to come along naturally as he throws it more. If the command doesn't improve, the fastball/slider combination might be untouchable out of the bullpen and he could be Colorado's next closer.  

2-42: OF Jared Thomas, Texas {video}
Slot value: $2.22 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($224,700 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #58.
Jared Thomas is a fun one whose profile has shifted around a bit, but however the projections stack up, the man can flat out play ball. A starter from the day he stepped on campus at Texas, he hit his way into the leadoff spot as a freshman by spraying the ball around the field and refusing to strike out. Coming into 2024, he shifted his approach a bit and started turning on the ball, which helped him jump from four to sixteen home runs, bump his slugging percentage from .484 to .635, and also bump his strikeout rate from 15.2% to 20.6%. Thomas has very strong bat to ball ability with a loose left handed swing and really adjustable hands that help him get to balls all over the zone. The new approach in 2024 meant he was more aggressive outside the zone didn't get to every ball that he got to in 2023, but with the offensive numbers up across the board, it was worth the tradeoff. A draft-eligible sophomore who only turned 21 shortly before the draft, he has projection remaining on his 6'2", 190 pound frame that could lead to more power down the line. The power is average for now, but he makes so much contact that it plays up and it will especially do so in Coors Field, where he may not need to sell out as much to reach it in the bigs. If he can get a little more patient at the plate, he has a chance to be a great all-around hitter. The Texas native is a well above average defender at first base with much more agility than you typically see there, and in 2024 he showed well in center field which will give him more avenues to big league playing time. At Coors, he projects as a 10-20 home run hitter with good batting averages/on-base percentages and the ability to play anywhere lefties can play, with a utility fallback if any part of his offensive game fails to play up. So far in eight games, it is playing up and he hit .333/.389/.545 with two home runs and a 7/3 strikeout to walk ratio for Low A Fresno.

3-77: C Cole Messina, South Carolina {video}
Slot value: $1.01 million. Signing bonus: $1.01 million.
My rank: #83. MLB Pipeline: #100. Baseball America: #72.
Cole Messina became a fan favorite in Columbia, and if he keeps hitting in pro ball, he could quickly become a fan favorite in Denver. Though he didn't play much as a freshman, he broke out for a big sophomore season in 2023 then blasted off for an even bigger junior season in 2024 as one of the best hitting catchers in the country. "Moose" is a burly guy at a listed 6', 230 pounds, and he uses that strength to produce plus raw power that he tapped for 38 home runs in 121 games over the past two seasons. It's a high handset in which he starts with the bat laying down his back, which he then pulls back into a hitting position before walloping the ball with a big right handed hack. Messina does not get cheated, with a modern approach oriented towards pulling the ball in the air with authority. He has a strong approach at the plate, though with all the movement in his swing, there are swing and miss concerns as he struck out 23.4% of the time in 2024. While that didn't impede him from hitting .330/.453/.616 in conference against elite SEC pitching, he's going to have to get more comfortable against quality stuff in the zone as pitchers get better and better at finding the holes in his swing. Messina will also need to watch his conditioning and maintain the quickness in his hands as he ages, or he'll need to simplify his setup. Behind the plate, he has a decent glove and gets the job done albeit without flashy tools. The Charleston-area native is a non-athlete and well below average runner who would be limited to first base or DH if he ever moved out from behind the plate, but most believe he can stick. If anything, Messina is universally praised for his makeup as an elite competitor and a tremendously hard worker who will do everything he can to get better, help his teammates get better, and help his team win. That's great anywhere but especially from a catcher. Aggressively assigned to High A Spokane, he didn't do much in his pro debut slashing .140/.232/.220 with one home run and an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seventeen games.

4-106: SS Blake Wright, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $689,600. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($439,600 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #395.
Blake Wright was one of the top seniors available this year and the Rockies pulled him off the board a bit earlier than expected, getting a nice discount in the process as he signed for seventh round money. A big sophomore season put him on the map in 2022 and he came into 2023 a solid draft prospect, but had a down season and returned to Clemson. Back to his old self in 2024, he doubled his previous career high in home runs with 22, all while hitting .340 and helping Clemson host its first Super Regional since 2010. This is a very metrically appealing bat. It's average power from an average frame, using a strong right handed swing to muscle balls out to all fields and giving him a good shot at double digit home run totals in the majors, especially in Coors. Not just that, he makes a ton of contact both inside and outside the zone, with strong pitch recognition and the ability to get his hands where they need to go. Wright is an aggressive hitter who walked in just 5.6% of his plate appearances in 2024, instead preferring to hit the first pitch he likes and generally doing a good job of it. Colorado will look to rein in that approach in pro ball where it will get exploited more, and if they can do that successfully, his combination of above average bat to ball and average power could really play. A third baseman at Clemson who held down the position for the last two seasons (and blocking superstar Billy Amick [now a Twin] in the process, indirectly causing him to transfer to Tennessee for the third base opportunity), Wright has average defensive tools that will make him serviceable at first base, second base, and third base in pro ball. That helps him project well as a utility infielder/platoon bat for the Rockies, with the potential for more if he can cut down the chases.

5-139: RHP Lebarron Johnson Jr., Texas {video}
Slot value: $500,000. Signing bonus: $500,000.
My rank: #171. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #189.
Lebarron Johnson, like Blake Wright, is a senior sign who drew draft interest last year (well, technically a redshirt junior who sat out his freshman season). Ranking #106 on my draft board last year, he was the second best unsigned draft prospect returning to school and took a slight step back in 2024, but still showed well enough to bring in a half million dollar signing bonus. Johnson sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98, then adds a pair of hard secondaries. He has a power slider that approaches 90 in its own right, while his splitter is another power pitch. Everything comes with the added aspect of an ultra high release height, as he extends well above his 6'4" frame to release the ball nearly seven feet off the ground. It's no easy at bat watching the ball come straight down on you, and it's even harder when the pitcher is pushing 90 with his slider. At this point, he commands his fastball better than his offspeed stuff and his walk rate increased from 10.5% in 2023 to 12.8% in 2024, something he'll have to clean up if he wants to remain a starter in pro ball. He was fairly streaky in that regard this year as well, throwing some gems against Cal Poly, Washington, TCU, and Kansas but giving up four or more runs in seven of his seventeen appearances. When he's at his best, the Jacksonville native looks like a top one hundred talent, and he'll hope to find more of that in pro ball. If anything, Johnson could use something softer in his arsenal so hitters have a harder time gearing up for the mid 90's.

6-168: LHP Konner Eaton, George Mason {video}
Slot value: $378,900. Signing bonus: $378,900.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #180. Baseball America: #344.
One of the most electric arms to come out of George Mason University in Northern Virginia, and he brings really sneaky upside if Colorado can get his development right. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96-97 with nice riding life from a three quarters slot, and he leans heavily on it to chew up bats. His slider has a chance to become a plus pitch in time, though he lacks consistent feel for it and it either backs up on him or he spikes it regularly. He shows a pretty solid changeup, too, but like his slider he doesn't have consistent feel for it. You have to imagine that Colorado will up his usage of his offspeed stuff as one of the first things they work on, which could really elevate his profile if he can land them. Command has been an issue for Eaton, who can yank his release point and struggles to hit spots, especially with his offspeed stuff, and for that reason he brings plenty of release risk. The upside is really tantalizing though as a lefty up to 97 with what could be a dastardly slider in time. He was nails in nine relief appearances in the minors, too, allowing just one run over eleven innings while striking out sixteen and walking three, mostly at Low A Fresno with one appearance at High A Spokane.

12-348: LHP Everett Catlett, Georgetown {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #268.
Everett Catlett didn't do much over his first three seasons at Georgetown with a 6.90 ERA and a 36/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings against mediocre competition, including missing the 2022 season with shoulder issues. However, he raised his profile by dominating in the New England Collegiate Baseball League over the following summer and jumped from Mystic, CT to Orleans, MA to pitch in the Cape Cod League last August, then carried that success over to a strong 2024 in DC. Catlett is a towering 6'7" lefty with a funky low three quarters delivery, creating a unique look for hitters. The fastball sits in the low 90's but has been up to 96 in short stints, showing a ton of running life to stay off barrels. He has an average slider with nice tilt to miss bats, while his hard upper 80's changeup gets nice fading action when he grips it right. It's a nice three pitch mix aided by a deceptive delivery and solid command, giving him a chance to be a back-end starter if all goes right. Having turned 22 shortly after the draft, Catlett probably projects better as a long reliever whose stuff could tick up in short stints and give hitters fits as a very different look from whoever he follows out of the bullpen.

20-588: RHP Hunter Omlid, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Hunter Omlid comes to Colorado via a circuitous route around the interior West. He grew up in the small town of Hamilton, Montana, about forty miles south of Missoula in the southwestern corner of the state. He stayed relatively close to home to begin his college career, suiting up for Boise State back in 2020 to strong results. Moving south to Central Arizona JC in 2021, he was one of the better JuCo pitchers in the region that year and moved on to Grand Canyon for 2022 and 2023, but only to middling results. Moving on to his fifth school in four years, and his third in the state of Arizona, he was a key cog in the Arizona State bullpen with a sharp 54/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 37.2 innings. Omlid has a low to mid 90's fastball that plays up due to big riding action and some run as well. He throws a big sweeping slider that can confound hitters, and when it's all working, he can be downright dominant as evidenced by an eleven strikeout gem against Utah Valley in March. Omlid's stuff does play better in short stints, and given his advanced age (he turned 24 in May), he'll almost certainly be a reliever for the Rockies. With decent command, he has a chance to move quickly towards Colorado.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

2024 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at pick #10

A year ago, the Nationals took picked second overall and took LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, who in my opinion was the very best player available on draft day. In fact, he's the most impressive hitter I have ever seen at the college level, standing up to such names as Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Andrew Vaughn, Wyatt Langford, and Adley Rutschman. In 2024, the Nationals actually won the draft lottery and the opportunity to pick first overall, but because they picked inside the lottery last year and are a revenue sharing team, they got bumped down to #10.

Mike Rizzo used to have a type. In the past, he leaned heavily on established college starting pitchers like Cade Cavalli, Erick Fedde, and Dane Dunning and buy-low options coming off injuries or other issues like Seth Romero, Mason Denaburg, and Lucas Giolito. Lately, he has pivoted towards prep bats early and took Brady House and Elijah Green in back to back first rounds in 2021 and 2022. Now, with a relatively imbalanced farm system brimming with top-end bats (especially outfield bats) but nearly completely devoid of pitching, it's hard to peg what direction he'll go. If the draft were to be held today, there would be three names Nationals fans could comfortably write off: West Virginia second baseman JJ Wetherholt, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, and Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz. They are more or less the consensus top three players in the draft and are not in a position to make it to #10.

So who does that leave open for the Nationals? Even with those big three bats more or less out of the question unless the underperform this spring, it's still a class chock full of bats, specifically college bats in this range. Would the Nationals want to further add to a position of strength, or try to fill out the bone-dry pitching pipeline? My answer of course is that you never draft for need, and should always draft the best player available, but we'll see what Rizzo chooses to do. There are also a few college arms that look to make sense in that range and you know Rizzo would love to get his hands on one, while a couple of prep bats also figure to hang around that range if we want to go back to that well. Here are ten options, along with their rank on my recent top 40.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
If I were in charge, this is the name I'd have circled. For now, I'm fully on board the Jac Caglianone train should he be available at pick #10, which he very well may be. Caglianone is a two-way player with ridiculous physical ability on both sides of the ball, and once he drops one to focus on the other, he could become a monster (if you don't already consider him one). Standing 6'5", 245 pounds with long arms and legs, he is ridiculously strong and creates as much leverage as anybody. That plays into plus-plus power which helped him set the single season BBCOR-era (since 2011) home run record with 33 bombs in just 71 games, good for a .738 slugging percentage. He can wallop towering moonshots to the pull side or easily clear the left field fence for backside home runs. At the same time, he is one of the most aggressive hitters in college baseball and freely chases, and that attribute may be the key in getting the first nine teams to pass on him. Still, even with the free swinging mentality, he runs solid contact rates and SEC pitchers simply could not get him out last year (.299/.370/.684 in SEC play, chock full of pro-caliber pitching). Should he clean up his approach even just a little, he'd really round out what's looking to be a fearsome future middle of the lineup in DC. However, his future may very well be on the mound, and heaven knows the Nationals need that. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch triple digits with run, further showcasing his freakish physical ability. His slider and changeup are more average to above average pitches rather than plus, but if he gives up hitting to focus on pitching, you can see them taking a step forward. For now, the biggest issue on the mound is his inconsistency in repeating his delivery, as he sometimes looks like he's still growing into his ultra lanky frame. That gives him below average command and creates some reliever risk. Fellow Gator AJ Puk comes to mind as a comp, though Puk had a better breaking ball at this stage.

OF Charlie Condon, Georgia. My rank: #7.
The Nationals have some serious bats coming up through the pipeline, but most of them are right handed beyond James Wood and Daylen Lile. Like Jac Caglianone, Charlie Condon would give them some serious left handed thunder to balance that out. Despite sitting out his 2022 freshman season at Georgia, Condon exploded onto the scene with a massive 2023 in which he slashed .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games. He's a hulking presence in the box at 6'6" with man strength, deploying that size into plus-plus raw power that he taps consistently in games without over-swinging. A pretty patient hitter, his approach has played up against high level competition as he demolished SEC pitching last year (.339/.436/.804, 16 HR in 30 games) and struck out just 8% of the time on the Cape over the summer. Still, he does show some swing and miss, especially against quality offspeed stuff, so he'll look to even that out a bit in 2024. If the Nationals were to draft him, they'd have to really believe in his bat, as he'd likely end up a first baseman in this system. He's a fringy runner who plays a reasonably solid corner outfield, but the Nationals have so many outfielders that it's hard to see him beating out guys like Wood, Dylan Crews, Elijah Green, and Robert Hassell from a defensive perspective. I think the bat will profile just fine at first base and he could anchor Nationals lineups for years to come.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #9.
Right now, Chase Burns is looking like the best pitcher available in the draft so there's a very good chance he's gone well before the Nationals pick at #10. However, pitchers are fickle and you never know, and we do know Mike Rizzo would love to balance out the system a bit with a legitimate future ace like Burns. A famous prospect coming out of high school in the Nashville area, he made it to campus at Tennessee and shined for two years before transferring to Wake Forest this year. In high school, he was primarily known for his arm strength and electric stuff, but he has smoothed out his delivery and is looking more and more like a starting pitcher. The stuff is as explosive as ever. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and hit 101 in a pre-spring tuneup for the Demon Deacons, and it shows nice carrying life to boot. However, the triple digit fastball is only his second best pitch. Burns rips off a plus-plus slider around 90 with hard, nasty bite that could strike out major league hitters right now. Now at Wake Forest under the tutelage of renowned pitching coach Corey Muscara, his next step is to continue incorporating his curveball and changeup more into the arsenal, and that's certainly something Rizzo would like to see. While he's still control over command, Burns has been in the zone more and more and projects to stick as a starting pitcher. If the command and changeup can each tick up a half grade or so, he could be a frontline guy.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank #10.
Sure, the Nationals' system is chock full of young outfield prospects. But Konnor Griffin bears so much resemblance to the guys Mike Rizzo has targeted in the past that it's hard to rule him out here. Griffin is by many accounts the top prospect in a down year for high schoolers, on my list clocking in one spot ahead of second place PJ Morlando, who didn't crack this article but would certainly make sense. Griffin was originally a member of the 2025 class, but he would have turned 19 in the middle of his senior season and reclassified to 2024, where he is now age-appropriate. If nothing else, this kid is tooled up. He brings premium physicality and athleticism in an ideal 6'4" frame. That translates into big bat speed and potential plus power from the right side, which he taps consistently against good pitching. He has a long track record of performance despite the reclassification, with plenty of experience against higher level arms. The Mississippi native didn't quite dominate the way some scouts hoped last summer, but he's 17 years old and that's just about the only "hole" in his profile. Griffin's athleticism translates to the field, where his plus speed, plus arm, and shortstop background could make him an above average or better defender in center field. This could represent a less extreme version of Elijah Green if the Nats stick him into their system.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #12.
Hagen Smith isn't quite the prototypical arm that Mike Rizzo likes to target early in the draft, but if Chase Burns is off the board at this point and he still wants to add pitching, it's hard to ignore the loud package Smith brings to the table. Like Burns, he was a very well-known prospect as an East Texas prep in 2021 but made it to campus at Arkansas, where he has continued to elevate his game. Smith's fastball has crept up steadily during his time in Fayetteville. It hovered around 90 and topped out at 95 in high school, but he was consistently in the low 90's early in his college career, reached the upper 90's in short stints as a sophomore, then reportedly touched triple digits in fall practice at the outset of his junior year. It's a running fastball from a lower slot, making it difficult to square up and lift. His slider gives him a second easy plus pitch with late, deep break to seemingly fall off the table and confound hitters. He's added a cutter to play off his fastball, which he is still working on, while his splitter has flashed considerable promise even if it's not the most consistent pitch just yet. Like Burns, Smith has smoothed out his delivery at Arkansas and that, combined with strength gains on his projectable 6'3" frame, has helped him unlock more than a few ticks of velocity. The next step will be command, as he still gets disjointed at times and loses feel for his release point, leading to below average command. Because of that, and because he's bigger and stronger, Burns probably has the better shot to stick in a big league rotation, but Smith is the better athlete and I see him continuing to rocket up prospect lists as he develops. He's also extremely young for a college junior, not turning 21 until a month after the draft, giving him extra time to figure it out. The fastball/slider combination is absolutely electric and I believe he will continue to improve.

RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa. My rank: #14.
Rounding out the big three power arms, all showing electric fastball/slider combinations, is Brody Brecht, the best athlete of the bunch. Like Burns and Smith, he was also a well-known prospect as a prep in the Des Moines area who made it to campus at Iowa, but it wasn't just baseball pulling him to Iowa City. Brecht was also a member of the Hawkeye football team, but as his baseball career has continued to take off, he dropped the gridiron to focus on pitching. Heck, if I could throw as hard as he could, I would too. Brecht sits upper 90's and regularly pops into triple digits, giving him as far as I know the hardest fastball in college baseball. The pitch lacks typical run and ride, rather coming in with some cutting action instead. The velocity is more impressive than the shape, but at 100, you don't need explosive ride. As with Burns and Smith, he rips off a nasty slider that parks around 90 or above with hard, late, two-plane bite. It's a plus-plus pitch. Also like Burns and Smith, Brecht is still working on his curveball and changeup, which aren't quite as loud but still show promise. And like Smith, Brecht has struggled a bit with command. If the Nationals are going to take the risk here, they're going to have to be comfortable with converting his incredible athleticism into more repeatable mechanics without sacrificing the electric stuff. And if Brecht can take a step forward in that regard this spring, he may not be around for the Nationals to pick at #10.

3B Tommy White, Louisiana State. My rank: #15.
Why not make it two years in a row drawing from that elite LSU lineup? It wasn't just Dylan Crews swinging his way to a National Championship by himself, as Tommy White served as his chief protection in the lineup. Crews hit a ridiculous .426/.567/.713, but White wasn't far behind at .374/.432/.725 and both out-slugged him and out-homered him (24 to 18). White is a special hitter, to say the least. He has downright ridiculous hands that enable him to effortlessly fling the barrel through the zone at a high speed, producing plus-plus raw power that has helped him slam 51 home runs in just 121 games in college, good for a career .740 slugging percentage. White can get to the ball anywhere in the zone, even outside of it, and do damage to all fields. He may actually have plus bat to ball skills in addition to his plus-plus power, something you rarely ever see. That said, his main flaw in the box is his approach, as he's extraordinarily aggressive and pro pitchers will take advantage of that. If the Nationals buy the bat at #10, they'll be buying into his extraordinary natural talent in the box while hoping they can coach him to a more selective approach. To foot stomp the importance of doing so, White is a well below average athlete that is unlikely to stick at third base, instead looking at a likely career at first base or DH. If he joins the Nationals' system, he'll be rejoining not only Crews but Elijah Green, whom he teamed with at IMG Academy in Florida.

RHP Levi Sterling, Notre Dame HS [CA]. My rank: #17.
The Nationals haven't selected a prep pitcher in the first round since Mason Denaburg in 2018, though to be fair, Travis Sykora received back of the first round money in the third round in 2023. Levi Sterling isn't quite there yet in terms of pitching his way to the Nationals at #10, but I think he has every opportunity to do so. Hailing from the same Notre Dame High School in Los Angeles that produced Hunter Greene, Giancarlo Stanton, and many others, Sterling only sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out at 94, very modest by today's standards. His secondary arsenal is made up of a sweeping, slurvy curveball around 80, a tighter cutter, and an above average splitter. There's no true out pitches here, but Sterling is extremely projectable at 6'4" and won't turn 18 until after the draft, making him very young for the class. With a free and easy delivery and a virtual guarantee to add significant physicality over the next few years, he should add velocity quickly. Sterling also shows above average command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, putting him in uncommon territory for a high school pitcher. If Sterling shows even a modest bump in velocity this spring while holding his command and staying healthy, he could tempt Rizzo with the tenth overall pick.

LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke. My rank: #25.
If the draft were today, I don't think Jonathan Santucci would be under consideration. But after missing the final two months of the season in 2023 with elbow problems, a healthy 2024 could easily propel him into the Nationals' sights. Health aside, the profile belongs in the middle of the first round. He sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96 with his fastball, playing up with plenty of riding life. His slider looks like a true plus pitch when he locates it, while his changeup has continued to step forward and looks like it could become a weapon. Santucci's whole arsenal should gain more consistency as he gets more consistent innings, and with a sturdy 6'2" frame and clean, natural actions on the mound, he should be able to stay healthy enough to do so. I could certainly see him pushing himself into the upper tier of college starting pitchers this spring with a healthy spring where he shows three above average to plus pitches with solid command from the left side. And if he does that, Mike Rizzo will be interested.

LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest. My rank: #27.
We'll round out our list with one more college arm. Josh Hartle ranks near the back of the first round on my board but by most accounts fits somewhere in the middle of the first round, meaning he won't have to do much extra to earn consideration at pick #10. Like many names on this list, he was a famous prep in the class of 2021 but pulled himself out of the draft because he was set on attending Wake Forest just across town from where he grew up in the Winston-Salem area. Hartle's polish was immediately evident as he made 14 starts as a true freshman, then he took a big step forward as a sophomore where he was quietly one of the best pitchers in college baseball. The polish will certainly have Rizzo interested. It's a below average fastball sitting in the low 90's and topping at 94 with sinking life, while his two-plane, slurvy curveball gets swings and misses and his changeup looks solid. Everything plays way up though because he shows plus command with both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, missing far more bats than you'd expect (33.4% K rate in 2023) and setting him up well to handle more disciplined pro hitters. Really, it's a very similar profile to Levi Sterling if you flip the handedness, with Hartle having the advantage of an excellent 2023 in the ACC and Sterling having the advantage of being three and a half years younger. Like Sterling, it may only take a small bump up in velocity for Hartle to earn the selection to the Nationals at pick #10.