2023 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

Steve Cohen's massive spending spree pushed the Mets' first pick back to #32, but they still landed a consensus first round talent in Colin Houck for a surprisingly reasonable signing bonus. They did get two extra picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, and they also got an extra third round pick for failing to sign Brandon Sproat last year (who they ironically drafted again this year). The two major themes of this packed draft class were college pitchers and high school shortstops, with each of the Mets' first eleven picks falling into those categories. Behind Houck, New York also drafted A.J. Ewing and Boston Baro, the three of whom combined to sign for over $800,000 above their respective slot values. I'm a big fan of the Houck pick, personally, and I think that pick makes the Mets' draft.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-32: SS Colin Houck, Parkview HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: $2.61 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($142,500 above slot value).
My rank: #13. MLB Pipeline: #12. Baseball America: #21. Prospects Live: #18.
Arguably the best prep shortstop in the country, Colin Houck somehow made it to the Mets at pick #32 despite buzz he could go as high as the top ten. Perhaps even more surprisingly, he only signed for slightly above slot value, with his $2.75 million bonus sitting between the values of the 29th and 30th picks. This all amounts to a huge coup for the Mets, as Houck is as talented as they come. The Atlanta-area product is an excellent athlete who had Division I football offers as a quarterback, and that athleticism translates seamlessly to the diamond. He's a well-rounded hitter with more polish at the plate than you'd expect from a two-sport star, showing the ability to recognize offspeed stuff and work counts effectively. Utilizing a clean, powerful right handed swing, he shows off above average power in games, especially this spring where he teed off against strong Atlanta-area competition. Some swing and miss can occasionally creep into his game when he gets too big and tries to yank balls to the moon, though he usually does a good job of staying within himself and he's a very impactful hitter when he does. Defensively, Houck shows off the plus arm that served him well on the football field, and his athleticism helps him make all the plays at shortstop. He's more of an average runner than a plus one, so there is the potential that he gets forced to third base by a better defender, but the Mets will give him every shot to stick at shortstop and it's very possible that renewed focus on baseball alone could help him pull his defensive game together fully. Houck had been committed to Mississippi State before the Mets brought him on.

2-56: RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida {video}
Slot value: $1.47 million. Signing bonus: $1.47 million.
My rank: #88. MLB Pipeline: #54. Baseball America: #48. Prospects Live: #48.
A year ago, the Mets drafted Brandon Sproat in the third round at 90th overall, but couldn't come to terms with him and he was the second highest pick to go unsigned, behind fellow Mets 2023 draftee Nolan McLean. This time, they got the deal done at slot value and they'll get an older, wiser, more developed version of Sproat. One of the major concerns that held his stock back was a low 21.5% strikeout rate in 2022, but he bumped that up to 28.8% in 2023 while holding down a 4.66 ERA across over one hundred innings. He's all about the arm strength, sitting in the mid 90's deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short bursts. The fastball can get straight, often playing below its impressive velocity, but he does have a full arsenal of secondaries to keep hitters off balance. The Pensacola-area native shows solid feel to spin the ball, with his slider likely ahead of his curveball and a cutter to go with them, though he really stands out for an above average changeup that plays very well off his fastball. Sproat is more control over command and his walk rate ticked up to 10.3% in 2023 from 8.6% a year ago. The 6'3" righty also has some effort and moving parts in his delivery, including a double leg break as he extends towards the plate, that might point to a future in the bullpen, but he has so much present arm strength that he still maintains his stuff over longer outings. In drafting him this early despite turning 23 in September, the Mets are buying in on Sproat as a starting pitcher and hoping they can find a way to add some bat-missing qualities to his fastball. Given his age, he'll want to move fairly quickly.

3-91: RHP/OF Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $747,600. Signing bonus: $747,600.
My rank: #184. MLB Pipeline: #97. Baseball America: #184. Prospects Live: #289.
Ironically, the only player drafted higher than Brandon Sproat last year to go unsigned was Nolan McLean, the Orioles' third round pick at #81 overall. Even more ironically, this pick is actually compensation for failing to sign Sproat last year. McLean is very well known to scouts, having been an early round draft prospect out of high school in the Raleigh area in 2020 before being draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 and again as a junior in 2023. A year ago, it was seen as a tossup whether he'd be a hitter or a pitcher in pro ball, maybe leaning pitcher, and though the Mets drafted him as a two-way player, his future likely lies on the mound. After mostly working one inning at a time in 2022, he earned a longer leash and often went three to four innings in his outings in 2023. There is plenty of arm strength here, as he can sit in the mid 90's in short stints while topping out around 98, with nice running life to boot. He has steadily improved his feel for spin and his slider now flashes plus, while his curveball and changeup are usable pitches as well. Like Sproat, McLean is more control over command but has looked more polished as he's gotten more innings under his belt. A tremendous athlete, the 6'4" righty originally committed to Oklahoma State as a quarterback as well, so he has projection remaining and moves well on the mound. Most of the signs point to him being a reliever in the long run, but if the Mets are taking him in the third round and have him give up hitting, they may have hopes of trying to stretch him out. The Mets did draft him as a two-way player, and there is certainly talent on that side of the ball as well. He has massive raw power, as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run last year, and has clubbed 36 home runs over his three years in Stillwater. He's also a patient hitter, running low chase rates and walking at a very healthy 17.6% clip in 2023. However, McLean has a very grooved swing and struggles to make contact even on pitches over the plate, with his 107 strikeouts in 2022 setting a Division I record and his 37.3% strikeout rate in 2023 being equally as frightening. It's hard for me to see him tapping his power in pro ball with swing and miss issues like that. Defensively, Oklahoma State moved him to the outfield in 2023 to take pressure off his arm, but he is athletic enough to handle third base. I expect him to move to pitching full time sooner rather than later.

3-101: RHP Kade Morris, Nevada {video}
Slot value: $666,500. Signing bonus: $666,500.
My rank: #119. MLB Pipeline: #142. Baseball America: #166. Prospects Live: #123.
Kade Morris gives the Mets an interesting arm to play with. Earning a bigger and bigger role at Nevada every year, he served as the Wolfpack's Friday night starter this spring with solid results, posting a 5.42 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings despite playing in one of college baseball's most hitter-friendly environments. Morris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 97 at best, though the pitch has modest life and gets hit when he leaves it over the plate. He drops in an above average slider that functions as his main bat misser, while his deeper curveball looks like an average pitch and his changeup has made nice progress in Reno. He improved his strikeout rate from 18.5% as a sophomore to 22.5% as a junior, but it's still a lower number than you'd expect given his stuff and the Mets will want to find a way to help him continue that upward trend. The 6'3" righty still has projection remaining and is a very good athlete on the mound, giving New York a lot to work with to help him on his progression towards becoming a major league starting pitcher. He doesn't walk a lot of hitters and I think all the ingredients are there save for a lack of deception. The Central Valley native is also on the younger side for the class, nearly a year younger than Nolan McLean, signed for full slot value.

4-123: RHP Wyatt Hudepohl, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $536,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #299. Prospects Live: #216.
Wyatt Hudepohl pitched two seasons at Kentucky, then transferred to Charlotte this spring where he has stepped into a larger role. Making seventeen starts, he posted a 4.27 ERA and a 129/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings, including a seventeen strikeout complete game against Old Dominion and five more double digit strikeout games after that, including in the Clemson Regional against Lipscomb. The stuff here is pretty interesting – Hudepohl sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 95-96 at best with nice riding action, while adding a power curveball and a hard changeup with nice fade. He can also work the fastball into a cutter. The entire four pitch mix plays as at least average to above average, and when it's all working, he can be impossible to hit as you can see from the numbers above. The 6'4" righty has some effort in his delivery, getting deep into his back leg before pushing off towards the plate, but has shown the ability to maintain his stuff and control over long outings while leaning on his offspeed and should get a shot to crack it as a starter. He has a chance to be a solid #4.

4C-134: SS A.J. Ewing, Springboro HS [OH] {video}
Slot value: $483,000. Signing bonus: $675,000 ($192,000 above slot value).
My rank: #139. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #171. Prospects Live: #101.
A.J. Ewing was a favorite of many evaluators before the draft, and it looks like the Mets were big fans too. The second straight pick out of the Cincinnati area, Ewing showed very well on the showcase circuit and continued to perform back in Ohio, steadily climbing up boards. He's very skinny at a listed 6', 160 pounds, but stands out for springy athleticism on top of his track record of performance. Ewing can really whip the barrel through the zone for a kid his size and has shown nice pull side power with metal bats, and if he can tack on 15-20 pounds of muscle in pro ball, it should play with wood as well. He can handle quality offspeed stuff and moves well in the box in general, making him a very projectable hitter to dream on. In the field, his athleticism is apparent on the dirt and the Mets will send him out as a shortstop, though he needs to use a longer arm stroke to make throws on balls to his right and may fit better at second base, where he can more easily flick the ball to first base. This profile hinges on added physicality as he matures, which would help both in the power and defense departments. He's a little old for the class already. Previously committed to Alabama, he signed for nearly $200,000 above slot value.

4C-135: RHP Austin Troesser, Missouri {video}
Slot value: $478,200. Signing bonus: $350,000 ($128,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #143.
Austin Troesser didn't get much love on public boards (credit to Prospects Live for being in on him), and he wound up signing for early sixth round money here at the end of the fourth round. Troesser has been a valuable member of the Missouri bullpen the past two seasons, and in 2023 put up a 4.73 ERA and a 53/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for the Tigers. He primarily stands out for a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to around 98 at best, playing up with riding life and helping him miss a high number of bats. The slider is a little more inconsistent at this point but has looked good at times, while he hasn't really needed much of a changeup in the bullpen. He'll stay in the bullpen going forward, where the Mets will look to help him continue adding velocity and find consistent feel for that slider. The 6'3" righty has thrown strikes in his career at Missouri and profiles as a medium leverage reliever.

5-159: LHP Zach Thornton, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: $378,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #190. Prospects Live: #142.
Zach Thornton was on the annual shortlist of names I would have researched if I had a few more days before the draft. Every year you have to cut it off somewhere, and Thornton just missed. He put up a great season at Grand Canyon, posting a 3.87 ERA and a 91/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings, numbers which look even better when you consider college baseball's offense-friendly environment this year. The stuff isn't all that loud, with a fastball hovering around 90, touching 94, a pair of breaking balls that stand out more for their depth than their velocity, and a seldom-used changeup. Instead, the calling card is his pitchability, as the Kansas native mixes his pitches exceptionally well to keep hitters constantly off balance. He gets the kind of swings you see when position players pitch in MLB and mix 85 MPH fastballs with 38 MPH eephuses, which is also a testament to the deception in his delivery. To succeed in pro ball, the 6'3" lefty will have to add considerable strength to his lanky frame. If he can get his fastball more consistently into the low 90's and add some power to his breaking balls, he becomes a very interesting back-end starting pitching prospect. For now, he'll likely go torment low minors hitters used to seeing poorly located 96 instead of deceptive 89.

8-246: SS Boston Baro, Capistrano Valley HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $192,900. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($507,100 above slot value).
My rank: #181. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #98. Prospects Live: #127.
In their biggest over slot splurge of the draft, the Mets went and spent late third round money to sign eighth rounder Boston Baro away from a UCLA commitment, where he would have been competing for playing time with one of the top incoming shortstop recruits in the country in Roman Martin. Baro is an advanced prospect for a high schooler, taking impressively professional at bats and performing very well against strong Southern California pitching this spring. Very skinny at 6'2", there is very little impact power in the bat at this point from a line drive approach, though the Mets hope that he can get to fringy power in time as he fills out. Doing so would elevate the profile considerably. He's very light on his feet at shortstop and moves well to both sides, making all the plays consistently with enough arm strength to make it work. He figures to stay at shortstop initially, though in competing with Colin Houck and A.J. Ewing from this class alone, he may be forced to second base in the long term. Like Houck and Ewing, Baro is on the older side for the class and will be 19 before his first professional season is through.

9-276: 3B Nick Lorusso, Maryland {video}
Slot value: $175,100. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($125,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #292. Prospects Live: #194.
The Mets went with a bit of a hometown pick in Nick Lorusso, who grew up in Monroe in Fairfield County, Connecticut a little northeast of New York City. He began his college career at Villanova, where he had a solid but unremarkable three years. Since he transferred to Maryland in 2022, though, he's been a different hitter. After hitting five home runs in three years at Villanova, he broke out for fifteen in 2022, then in 2023 had one of the better offensive seasons in the country by slashing .379/.446/.765 with 26 home runs and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. Lorusso is strongly built at 6'2" and effectively channels that strength into a powerful right handed swing, with impressive batted ball data that should continue to play with wood. Against moderately strong pitching in the Big Ten, he hammered all kinds of pitches and looked like an advanced hitter in the box, which should be expected given that he'll turn 23 in September. A third baseman at Maryland, he's just alright over there and may ultimately move to first base, where his bat should profile just fine. Lorusso will want to move quickly given his age but he did provide the Mets with $125,100 in savings.

12-366: RHP Brady Kirtner, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #428.
Brady Kirtner is a pure reliever profile, but an interesting one nonetheless to nab here in the twelfth round. A local kid from Christiansburg who stayed home to attend Virginia Tech just down the road, he didn't get into a game as a true freshman and had an uneven redshirt freshman season in 2022, but took a step forward in 2023 with a 4.62 ERA and a 36/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Kirtner sits in the mid 90's with his fastball in short stints, up to around 96 with nice riding action, while his slider flashes nice late bite at times and can generate ugly swings with high spin. Skinny at 5'11" and utilizing an uptempo delivery, he's unlikely to make the transition to the rotation especially considering his shallow arsenal and fringy command. But he's trending in the right direction and if the Mets can help him continue down that path, perhaps by adding a little more velocity and improving his command by smoothing out the delivery a little, he has a future as a fastball/slider reliever in Flushing.

13-396: RHP Ben Simon, Elon {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
There is not a ton of information out there on Ben Simon, but I wanted to highlight him quickly as another hometown pick. Simon grew up in East Windsor in Central Jersey and attended nearby Highstown High School along the Jersey Turnpike a little east of Trenton. After an up and down freshman season, he has been a valuable reliever at Elon the past two seasons with a combined 3.36 ERA and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings. At 5'11", he's mostly physically maxed out and likely remains in the bullpen with average control. I only found video of him throwing two pitches, both riding fastballs up and away from lefties for strikeouts from what looks like a moderately low release.

19-576: RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #197. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #306. Prospects Live: #161.
It's unlikely that Christian Little signs here, but he's a famous name and deserves a spot in this writeup. One of the top high school pitchers in the entire class in 2021, he instead reclassified and enrolled early at Vanderbilt at just 17 years old. He held his own in two seasons as a swingman for the Commodores, then transferred to LSU for his junior season in 2023 where things did not quite go as planned, with a 7.79 ERA and a 42/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings. Little has plenty of stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 98 with his fastball, also showing the ability to cut it in the upper 80's. His offspeed stuff is inconsistent, though the slider flashes above average and he also shows a curveball and changeup. The biggest thing holding him back has been command, as he regularly falls behind in the count and has to find a way to dig himself out. The delivery can get rigid, which doesn't help, and now in three years in the SEC he has not progressed as a prospect. The good news is that not only is the arm strength absolutely still there, but he is also extremely young for the class, nearly three years younger than Brandon Sproat and still nearly two years younger than some college juniors. If he goes back to LSU for another season, which it looks like he will, he'll still be young for the class in 2024.

2023 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12 Conference

2022 draftees: 47. Top school: Oklahoma (11)
2022 preseason writeup (published 9/18/2021)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-7, Cubs: RHP Cade Horton (Oklahoma)
1-12, Tigers: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech)
CBA-37, Guardians: RHP Justin Campbell (Oklahoma State)
2-43, Diamondbacks: 1B Ivan Melendez (Texas)
2-45, Nationals: LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma)
2-51, Tigers: SS Peyton Graham (Oklahoma)

2022 was a banner year draft-wise for the Big 12, which crushed 2021's total of 38 players drafted by nine. The two Oklahoma schools alone combined for twenty draftees, including four of the first 51 picks, and the the University of Oklahoma led all schools nationwide with eleven draftees. This year, Oklahoma State will lead the way at least early on after placing four names in the top nine prospects heading into the season, certainly aided by the return of Nolan McLean, the highest drafted player a year ago to go unsigned. Let's take a look at those top ten draft prospects in the Big 12.

1. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 175 lbs. Born 5/22/2002. Hometown: West Jordan, UT.
2022: 13 HR, .314/.454/.576, 10 SB, 40/55 K/BB in 59 games.
One of the most consistent hitters in the Big 12 over the past couple seasons is finally draft eligible, and scouts couldn't be more excited. Brayden Taylor needed zero time to adjust to the college game, immediately hitting his way into the TCU starting lineup as a freshman and slashing .319/.450/.574 with 25 home runs and far more walks (104) than strikeouts (86) in 117 games so far. He had a chance to build his stock further against elite competition this summer, but didn't make much impact with the Collegiate National Team and hit a solid if unspectacular .269/.361/.385 with two home runs in 26 games in the Cape Cod League. Taylor stands out for an extremely professional approach at the plate, which is why he was able to adjust to Big 12 pitching so easily and also why he rarely slumps. He rarely ever chases out of the zone and won't swing through many hittable pitches either, and only gets into minor strikeout trouble because he tends to work deep counts. The Salt Lake City-area product has a very loose, whippy barrel that remains long through the zone, helping him work to all fields effectively while further limiting that swing and miss. There is solid power in the tank, with the ability to turn on balls and send them out consistently to the pull side. To really make the most of his power potential, he'll want to tack on additional strength to his skinny 6'1" frame, which would help that power play better to all fields and really push him into top ten consideration. With a late May birthday that will have him turn 21 less than two months before the draft, he is young for the class and has that much more time to fill out. Furthermore, his swing is more oriented for line drives for now and adding loft may help if he chooses to go that route. Either way, it's at least average power for now combined with a plus hit tool, so 15-20 home runs per year with high on-base percentages are well within reach. Defensively, he has played mostly third base to this point and has looked very solid, so a team bullish on his glove could give him a shot at shortstop. Overall, I see this package as very similar to a left handed Cade Doughty, and I really liked Doughty as a first rounder up until a late season slump last year dropped him to the second compensation round. Taylor has a very good shot at the first round as it stands now, and if he comes out in the spring a little more physical, the top ten picks are a possibility.

2. RHP Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 2/23/2002. Hometown: Hanford, CA.
2022 (@ Long Beach State): 4-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 111/29 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Juaron Watts-Brown is slowly but steadily trending up and up and up. He was originally a Texas Tech commit, but decided to stay in his home state and attend Long Beach State at first. After sitting out his freshman season in 2021, he announced his presence loudly in 2022 and parlayed that into a strong run through the Cape Cod League (3.83 ERA, 53/16 K/BB in 40 innings). Now he'll head to the Big 12 like he originally planned, but he'll move past Lubbock on his way to Stillwater. Watts-Brown is throwing harder and harder, now sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 96 while adding a full arsenal of secondaries. His slider and curveball both have two-plane action, but remain distinct from each other and look like above average pitches, while his changeup provides a fourth average or better pitch. Everything plays up from a pretty ideal release, as he gets down the mound extremely well to create great extension and a lower release point, in turn giving his fastball nice riding life. The 6'3" righty is very athletic on the mound with plenty of projection remaining, making for a very fun ball of clay for Josh Holliday's staff and eventually a pro staff to play with. For now, the command is fringe-average and could use some improvement, as he can yank his front side at times and lose his release point. It's nothing major and I don't expect it to hold back his profile, which looks to fit somewhere in the second round range for now but which could easily leap into the first round if he takes well to the Big 12. I'm personally a believer which is why I rank him as the best pitching prospect in the conference.

3. RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 215 lbs. Born 7/11/2002. Hometown: Houston, TX.
2022: 2-0, 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 14/3 K/BB in 11 innings.
One of the more highly regarded recruits to reach campus following the 2020 draft, Tanner Witt jumped straight into a prominent role in the Longhorn bullpen as a true freshman in 2021 and put up a 3.16 ERA and a 73/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings. Transitioning into the rotation in 2022, he looked very sharp in starts against Rice and Alabama to start the season, pitching his way into top ten consideration for 2023, but went down with Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched since. The surgery will keep him out for at least the early part of 2023, though it's not out of the question that he could return later in the season and reclaim some of that draft stock. Even without much track record as a starter, it's hard not to like Witt. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 96-97 at his best, with natural riding action above what most others are capable of. Interestingly, the 6'5" righty throws from an extremely high release point that puts steep downhill angle on the ball, so those two characteristics counteract each other a little bit. Witt drops in a big 12-6 curveball that he has feel to land for strikes, though it can catch too much of the plate at times and get hit. He also shows an average slider and an above average changeup, giving him a full arsenal of four average or better pitches. The Houston native is very advanced for his age, repeating his delivery well and showing solid command of his four pitch mix, looking every bit like a starting pitcher. He does have an interesting quirk in his delivery where he pulls the ball out of his glove briefly at the top of his leg lift, then taps it back in before bringing out for real. This gives hitters an extra look at his grip, which could become a problem with more seasoned pro hitters, but it's also not a difficult fix. The injury does put a dent in his stock simply because he doesn't get to show what he's capable of, but Witt is very young for the class and won't turn 21 until the third day of the draft, so he's playing with a little bit of house money there. He's also extremely projectable and looks durable aside from the elbow surgery, which at this point is pretty inevitable for any pitcher. Witt looks like a high probability mid-rotation starter.

4. SS Nick Goodwin, Kansas State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/6/2001. Hometown: Overland Park, KS.
2022: 11 HR, .255/.354/.525, 6 SB, 57/30 K/BB in 57 games.
Nick Goodwin may not have a carrying tool, but he does a lot well and has a chance to be a real breakout performer in 2023 after holding down a very solid .267/.354/.502 slash line over two years at Kansas State so far. In addition to being a dependable cog for the Wildcats, he showed similarly well in the Cape Cod League with a .267/.342/.466 line, six homers, and a 42/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He's not huge, but he taps average power to all fields with a quick right handed swing that puts good loft on the ball and effectively maximizes his strength. There is some swing and miss, as his strikeout rate jumped from 19.3% as a freshman to 23.1% as a sophomore and clocked in at 22.8% on the Cape, but he has consistently performed well against high level pitching both in the Big 12 and on the Cape so it's not a huge concern. It would be nice though if he could at least cut that down below 20% in 2022, and if he could get it down around 15-16% or so while maintaining his power, this suddenly goes from a third round profile to something much more interesting. Defensively, he has handled shortstop at Kansas State well and will get a chance to play there in pro ball, though he may not be quite explosive enough to make it work long term and could fit better at second or third base. Overall, there is upside of a 15-20 home run infield bat with decent on-base percentages if he cuts down his strikeouts a little, and he'd fit well as a utility infielder even if he does continue to strikeout out at a moderate rate.

5. 2B Roc Riggio, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'9", 180 lbs. Born 6/11/2002. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2022: 11 HR, .295/.413/.519, 2 SB, 58/34 K/BB in 54 games.
If you watched the 2022 Oklahoma State Cowboys, it would have been hard not to notice Roc Riggio. The 5'9" showman with long hair dyed bright blond plays with as much energy as anybody on the field, the epitome of a new-school, let-the-kids-play electric factory. Having earned considerable draft interest out of his Los Angeles-area high school in 2021, he reached campus in Stillwater and immediately hit his way into the starting lineup as a freshman, acting as a catalyst for one of the best lineups in the country with his bat flips and all-out style of play. Riggio continued on to the Cape Cod League over the summer but couldn't quite match his big freshman season, slashing just .200/.258/.339 with three home runs and a 37/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games. The profile here is carried by the bat, as he takes big hacks from the left side to tap above average power despite his small frame. He does a good job of getting loft under ball when it's down in the zone while keeping a more level swing up in the zone, boding well for both his future power production and contact ability, though for now he's still adjusting to college level pitching and has some swing and miss in his game. He struck out 22.4% of the time for Oklahoma State this spring then ran a 29.6% K rate on the Cape, so bringing that down will be high on the priority list. Right now he profiles for 20+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages if he can. Riggio is not the greatest athlete and will have to work to remain at second base, with the outfield a real possibility if he gets pushed by a better defender in pro ball, so his value will rely on his ability to hit pro pitching. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he's younger than most of the juniors he'll compete against for draft position and turns 21 a month before the draft.

6. SS Marcus Brown, Oklahoma State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 5'11", 185 lbs. Born 9/14/2001. Hometown: Springdale, AR.
2022: 4 HR, .316/.378/.441, 5 SB, 38/21 K/BB in 64 games.
Roc Riggio may be the most exciting player on the Oklahoma State roster, but the guy playing right across the bag from him is the school's flashiest defender. Springy and athletic, Marcus Brown moves very well around the dirt and makes it look easy out there with an above average arm. That glove will be the carrying tool in his profile, but he can swing it a little bit too. Employing a loose left handed hack that gets the barrel long through the zone and produces plenty of line drive contact, he puts nearly everything in play and struck out just 13.7% of the time in 2022, easily the lowest mark on this list. A career .323/.388/.436 hitter in Stillwater, like Riggio he struggled to make an impact on the Cape and slashed just .233/.315/.295 in 44 games there. His 20% strikeout rate was much lower than Riggio's 29.6%, but still elevated above his number with the Cowboys as he struggled to find gaps and fences with wood bats. Still, I remain fairly optimistic on the bat especially given that his glove will buy it plenty of time to develop. Though he's undersized at 5'11", he naturally whips the barrel through the zone with authority and getting even a little bit stronger could help him threaten for double digit home run totals in pro ball. He'll always make plenty of contact and keep defenses on their toes, though the minimal swing and miss in his game to date does keep his walk rates down – 7.6% at OSU and 6.1% on the Cape.

7. OF Elijah Nuñez, Texas Christian.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 12/6/2001. Hometown: Arlington, TX.
2022: 1 HR, .281/.435/.368, 31 SB, 48/58 K/BB in 60 games.
Elijah Nuñez brings an old school profile to the ballpark here, so he stands in contrast to many other players scouts will be looking at. A glove-first guy like Marcus Brown, he will certainly stick in center field with plenty of speed and exceptional feel for the position, immediately providing a strong baseline of value. It's easier to carry a profile with your glove if you catch or play a mean shortstop like Brown, but Nuñez gets it done in center field with the best of them. He's also a very patient hitter at the plate that doesn't swing and miss much (16.7% strikeout rate) and draws a ton of walks. In fact his 58 free passes tied for eighth in the nation last year, a feat made even more impressive when you consider he was younger than all seven players ahead of him as well as the guy tied with him, and also the fact that he did so in fewer games than all but one player in that group. When he does swing at the ball, he's a gap to gap line drive hitter that doesn't try to do too much, with below average power that has manifested in just two home runs in 114 career games for the Horned Frogs. While the glove and legs give his profile plenty of baseline value, his offensive profile will be reliant on keeping those on-base percentages high because he likely won't threaten for double digit home runs. To me, it's a pretty clear fourth outfield profile but one that has a chance to be extremely valuable.

8. RHP Cam Brown, Texas Christian.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 215 lbs. Born 10/15/2001. Hometown: Flower Mound, TX.
2022: 5-2, 4.42 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 49/31 K/BB in 53 innings.
Cam Brown is very much an enigma at this point. One of the stars of the showcase circuit in the summer of 2019, he was pitching his way into the top two rounds but did not look like himself during his COVID-shortened senior spring in 2020. That led him to campus at TCU, where he barely pitched as a freshman and had an up and down sophomore season in which he did not miss nearly as many bats as hoped. Taking his talents to the Cape Cod League over the summer, he pitched to mixed results once more and allowed seven runs in nine innings with an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio. At his best, Brown looks like a bona fide impact starting pitcher, running his fastball into the upper 90's and flashing above average with his entire arsenal of secondaries, consisting of a slider, curve, and changeup. It's really loud stuff from a big league body, but he's just never been able to put it all together. The delivery can get stiff and he struggles to command it all, often falling behind in the count and leaving pitches over the plate to get hit or giving up free passes. I'm worried that the fastball may play a bit true out of his hand and play below its low to mid 90's velocity, and inconsistent secondaries led to just a 20.6% strikeout rate last year. The DFW native could benefit from a pro development program to help him find more deception and perhaps improve his command a tick, in which case he really could pull it all together and become a mid-rotation starter in the majors. At some point, though, you're going to want to see some results and he just hasn't missed enough bats in the Big 12 yet to feel comfortable projecting him in that role. But that's why you get three years in college, right?

9. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Garner, NC.
2022: 19 HR, .285/.397/.595, 2 SB, 107/37 K/BB in 64 games.
2022: 2-1, 5.01 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 39/13 K/BB in 25.1 innings.
Nolan McLean will rank as the ninth best prospect in the Big 12 for the second year in a row after the Orioles failed to meet his signing bonus demands at the 81st overall pick last year, making him the highest drafted player to go unsigned. Eligible as a sophomore last year, he'll still be close to age appropriate this year and will turn 22 just after the draft, making him just a couple months older than Nick Goodwin, Marcus Brown, and Cam Brown. A true two-way player, he was one of three Cowboys to appear in all 64 games last year (along with #6 prospect Marcus Brown) and also made 23 appearances on the mound, so scouts have seen him plenty to this point. At the plate, McLean stands out for plus-plus raw power as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run that ranks among the best in the country. He's big and strong at 6'3" with long arms that naturally channel that strength into leverage and bat speed, but he has been extremely inconsistent to this point thanks in large part to a well below average hit tool. In fact, his 107 strikeouts this past season set an all time Division I record, as he struggles to adjust his grooved swing to correct for mistakes in pitch/location identification. The power is absolutely tantalizing, but when you strike out 36.9% (!) of the time, it's hard to get scouts to buy in. Going back to school will give him a chance to at least bring that number down below 30% and ideally closer to 25%, where scouts could slap a 40 grade on his hit tool and call it a risk worth taking. The Orioles actually drafted him as a pitcher this past season, and he'll have an opportunity to step into a larger role for Oklahoma State as the Cowboys lost their top seven arms by innings pitched to the draft, the transfer portal, or graduation. He can touch the upper 90's in short stints and is gradually improving his feel for spin with both a curveball and slider in hand, together helping him miss enough bats to run a very strong 35.1% strikeout rate. Below average command, in addition to his duties at third base, have kept him in the bullpen so far, but it would be interesting to see if Josh Holliday and co. give him a shot in the rotation this spring with so many spots opening up. If he takes another step forward with that command, suddenly the arm strength and feel for spin become really interesting here.

10. LHP Lucas Gordon, Texas.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 2/13/2002. Hometown: Los Angeles, CA.
2022: 7-2, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 77/26 K/BB in 85.2 innings.
Once Tanner Witt gets healthy, the 2023 Texas rotation will have a very similar feel draft-wise to the 2021 rotation. Witt, like Ty Madden, is a potential first rounder from Houston with a power fastball from a high slot and strong command, while Lucas Gordon, like Pete Hansen, is a soft tossing command/control lefty from California. Funny how that works out sometimes. Gordon is coming off a very strong sophomore season in Austin where he formed a strong one-two punch with Hansen, forcing his way into draft conversations by his performance even if the stuff doesn't quite match up yet. He sits around 90 with his fastball and can get up to about 94 at best with some run, so it's an average pitch. Gordon has strong feel for both his sweepy slider and slurvy curveball, but they lack the power and bite you look for in a swing and miss secondary offering. His best pitch is a plus changeup with excellent fading action, rounding out a full big league arsenal. The 6'1" lefty repeats his delivery very well with above average command of both his fastball and his offspeeds, showing the ability to spot everything to both sides of the plate, and he ran a very respectable 7.2% walk rate as a sophomore. The stuff can get hit hard when he leaves it up and over the plate, and in aggregate he didn't miss many bats with just a 21.2% strikeout rate. Scouts know that Gordon can pound the strike zone and control at bats, so in 2023 they'll look for the Los Angeles product to show a little more velocity on his fastball and/or power on his breaking balls to help grow his margin for error a little bit. It's a back-end starter profile if he can.

Honorable Mention: LHP Ben Hampton, West Virginia.
Ben Hampton was the first player off the list, but I wanted to give him his due after an incredible run through the Cape Cod League. He was draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 but didn't get much interest after posting a 4.66 ERA and a 90/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings at West Virginia, but reached another level on the Cape with a 2.27 ERA and a 51/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 43.2 innings. The fastball velocity just isn't there yet, parking in the upper 80's and rarely scratching 90, but he hides it very well and gets good ride on it, making it something of an invisiball. His primary offspeed pitch is a sweepy slider with depth that he locates well, and everything plays up because he mixes and matches his stuff to keep hitters off balance. There is not much projection remaining in his stocky 6'1" frame so there is no guarantee he ever consistently reaches the low 90's, where the profile would be much more attractive. Still, there are some similarities to Monmouth's Trey Dombroski a year ago, who went in the fourth round to the Astros, even if Hampton is a good four inches shorter. Despite the exceptional numbers on the Cape, Hampton was up and down in conference play last year (6.15 ERA, 46/17 K/BB in 41 IP) and has never had success against high level competition before this summer. Throw in that he's old for the class, turning 22 a few weeks after the draft, and it's hard to know exactly what to make of the soft tossing Wisconsinite. 

The top 7 unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2023

The draft is behind us, the signing deadline is behind us, and most importantly from my perspective, all thirty team by team draft reviews are behind me, so it's time to take a look at the guys who didn't sign. Those kids are back on campus now enjoying Week 1 of college football and taking part in fall practice to get ready for the 2023 season. Well, maybe not Jace Grady or Isaiah Thomas since Dallas Baptist and Lewis-Clark State don't have a football team. Usually I let this list go ten deep, but my personal draft list of 225 players, only six college players are returning to school. So here are those six, plus Colby Halter frankly because he's a famous name to help flesh this list out a little and one more bonus name at the bottom:

1. RHP Andrew Walters, Miami. My 2022 draft rank: #127.
Miami already returns a young roster for 2023 but is getting a huge boost with Andrew Walters unexpectedly coming back for his senior season. He was drafted in the eighteenth round by the Orioles and had a chance to sign when it became apparent that third rounder Nolan McLean would not, but that money went to seventeenth rounder Carter Young instead and Walters is happy to return to Coral Gables. After beginning his career at Eastern Florida State JC near his hometown of Palm Bay, he transferred to Miami as a sophomore in 2021 and excelled, earning a larger role in 2022 and posting a 1.65 ERA and a 62/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings this spring out of the bullpen. He carved up ACC hitters with just one pitch for the most part, a riding mid 90's fastball that tops out around 99 that hitters just could not pick up. He hides it extremely well and executes his locations, so hitters could sit on it and still come up empty. Walters adds a slider but it's a below average pitch, lacking bite and offering more a change of pace than anything else. If the Hurricanes want to, they can move the 6'4" righty into the rotation given his above average command, strong frame, and repeatable delivery, especially now with Carson Palmquist and Alex McFarlane gone to the Rockies and Phillies, respectively. A move to the rotation would really test his ability to execute that fastball over long periods of time, but the hope is that he can sharpen that slider into at least an average pitch to more effectively handle extended innings. To start in pro ball, he'll also need a changeup, but it would be perfectly reasonable for Miami to just send Walters back out in the bullpen as one of the best relievers in the ACC.

2. RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida. My 2022 draft rank: #131.
Brandon Sproat going unsigned was a surprise, as the Mets drafted him in the third round but couldn't come to terms, making him the second highest drafted player to go unsigned after Oklahoma State's Nolan McLean. The Florida pitching staff usually gets raided during the draft, and as always they were prepared to replenish with a deep pool of underclassmen and a premium transfer in Hurston Waldrep from Southern Miss. Getting Sproat back on top of that is huge, and it gives the Gators one of the SEC's best staffs overall. He has always flashed huge arm strength from the right side but was held back by command, then took a big step forward in that regard as he moved into the rotation this spring to the tune of a 3.41 ERA and an 82/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. He sits in the mid 90's as a starter but can touch triple digits in relief, though the fastball can play a bit true and he didn't miss as many bats in 2022 as you'd like for someone that throws that hard. The Pensacola-area native has two quality secondary pitches in a solid slider that flashes above average as well as a changeup that looks plus at its best, and more effectively mixing those pitches in could help him miss more bats as well. His command has improved to fringe-average and he gets down the mound very well, lending hope that he can stick as a starter long term when that may not have been the projection heading into the season. To do so, he'll have to hold that command together and probably get a little more consistent with his breaking ball, and it would also be nice if he could find a way to put more life on his fastball. With a September birthday, the 6'3" righty is on the older side and will be nearly 23 when the 2023 draft rolls around.

3. RHP Colby Holcombe, Mississippi State (via Northeast Mississippi JC). My 2022 draft rank: #169.
For the second year in a row, Mississippi State will get one of the country's most talented JuCo arms to campus, but they'll hope for better results than Andrew Walling after he pitched just three innings this spring. Colby Holcombe spent his freshman year at Northeast Mississippi JC in Booneville, where he was downright dominant at times and posted a 2.60 ERA and a 115/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings. He had some duds, including three starts where he allowed at least five runs, but also had three different starts in which he went at least seven innings, allowed no runs, no more than two hits, no more than two walks, and struck out at least a dozen. Holcombe has overpowering stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching as high as 99. At this point, he doesn't always hold that velocity deep into his starts, but the arm strength is there. He spins two vertical breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, with the former coming in harder and the latter showing deeper bite. The Florence, Alabama native also works in a changeup, but he doesn't need it much and it's behind his other pitches. Holcombe is very young, only set to turn 20 in December, and will stay in Starkville for two years before he's draft eligible again. That gives him plenty of time to build up his stamina in a starting role and refine his fringy command, especially given his huge 6'7" frame that can make it difficult to keep his long levers in sync. His fastball also plays a bit true, which wasn't an issue when he was blowing it by hitters at Copiah-Lincoln Community College but could come into play in the SEC. Still, if he can sit consistently in the mid 90's, it remains a very good fastball.

4. OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist. My 2022 draft rank: #179.
It was a surprise to see Jace Grady go undrafted, but I guess he has unfinished business in Dallas. Grady broke out as a sophomore for the Patriots a year ago then continued to rake in the Cape Cod League, leading to talk he could go in the top two rounds this spring. While he still finished with strong numbers in 2022, slashing .310/.419/.509 with ten home runs and a 60/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, he wasn't quite as consistent as many hoped and looked more like a day two candidate than a day one pick. For that reason, he'll head back to Dallas Baptist and try again. Grady has a strong all-around game that fits very well in college, showing an all fields approach with some power to the pull side that played up with wood bats on the Cape. He made a lot of early count contact last spring, where he only walked or struck out in 26.8% of his plate appearances, but he often worked deeper this spring as that rate jumped to 36.1%. Similarly, many of his doubles and triples a year ago turned into home runs this spring, but that came with an increased strikeout rate from 15.8% to 21.7%, which is a bit too high for his profile. He'll look to get that back down in 2023 and play within himself. The Central Texas native stands just 5'9" and does possess some power, but he's at his best when he lets it come naturally instead of actively trying to tap it. He's also an above average runner that runs the bases well and could stick in center field once he does head to pro ball, though his below average arm would push him to left if he can't. At Dallas Baptist in 2023, he'll look to cut that strikeout rate back down and prove he can stick in center, where he would be much more likely to find an every day MLB role than in left.

5. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State. My 2022 draft rank: #190.
Nolan McLean was the highest drafted player to go unsigned this year, going to the Orioles at #81 overall to open the third round. Baltimore wound up signing seventeenth round pick Carter Young to a massive $1.33 million bonus, while McLean will head back to Oklahoma State. McLean came to Stillwater with a chance to earn some reps under Mike Gundy at quarterback, but never played a snap and is focusing on baseball, specifically playing both ways. Originally thought of as a better pitching prospect at Garner High School in the Raleigh area, his bat came on late but he went undrafted in 2020, then at Oklahoma State he was almost exclusively a hitter as a freshman in 2021. He got more reps playing both ways in 2022, and it's still not clear where his future lies, though the Orioles did draft him as a pitcher. McLean does have more experience as a hitter and slashed .285/.397/.595 with 19 home runs and a 107/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games this spring. The power is the real calling card, as he possesses plus-plus raw juice (evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field bomb) from a strong 6'3" frame and an extremely leveraged right handed swing. When he gets his arms extended and gets the barrel to the ball, he can absolutely mash a baseball like very few other amateur hitters in the country. Meanwhile, his 107 strikeouts set an all time Division I record, so swing and miss is a big part of his profile. He's moderately disciplined in the box but there is very little adjustability in his grooved swing, making him very much a mistake hitter and causing him to struggle when he doesn't pick the pitch up immediately out of the hand. Upon returning to school next year, cutting that strikeout rate from 36.9% down to something around 25% or better will be a priority. On the mound, he put up a 4.97 ERA this spring with a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, all out of the Cowboys bullpen. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets into the upper 90's, and he also shows feel to spin a breaking ball with both a curve and a slider that are trending up. His command remains below average and he's likely a reliever, but going back to school will allow for more clarity on his profile with just 27.1 career innings under his belt. With Victor Mederos (Angels), Bryce Osmond (Angels), Trevor Martin (Rays), and Kale Davis (transferred to Oklahoma) all gone from the Oklahoma State pitching staff, McLean will get a great opportunity to step into a bigger role in 2023.

6. RHP Ty Floyd, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #198.
LSU was already in a great spot after landing massive transfers like Tommy White, Christian Little, and Paul Skenes, among others, in addition to bringing in a hugely talented freshman class. Getting back Ty Floyd, one of the most talented young arms on their pitching staff, is icing on the cake. Floyd was one of the most talented young arms on the LSU staff in 2022 and probably wasn't quite pro ready, so returning to Baton Rouge is probably the best move for his career. This past year, he had a 3.77 ERA and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, mostly as a starter. Out of high school, he showed tremendous athleticism and projection that just needed refinement, and two years later, he's made modest improvement but remains raw. Floyd's fastball can touch 95 early but settles more in the low 90's as the game progresses, adding a slurvy breaking ball and a seldom used changeup. The fastball plays above its velocity because it comes in with a flat approach angle from short arm action, especially when he gets it up in the zone. It was good to see him hold up in a starting role this spring, though going back to LSU will give him the opportunity to tighten up that breaking ball a bit and help it find its identity, in addition to refining his nascent changeup. If he can do those two things while holding down decent command, pro teams will be very interested to get the live armed 6'2" righty into their system. There is a lot of untapped potential to be found here, but he hasn't quite put it together yet.

7. 2B Colby Halter, Florida. My 2022 draft rank: unranked.
Colby Halter was one of the bigger prep names to reach campus out of the class of 2020, then made an immediate impact as a freshman by slashing .302/.379/.453 in 49 games. With high expectations for 2022, he took a step back and finished at just .240/.338/.380 with eight home runs and a 66/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games as a draft eligible sophomore. Halter did find his stroke a bit in the elite Cape Cod League this summer, slashing .288/.391/.471 with seven home runs in 43 games (.304/.418/.511 before the draft), but still went unpicked as he looks to rebuild his stock. He has a very long track record of hitting dating back to his prep days, with the 2022 college season being the only time in his amateur career where he has looked anything but stout at the plate. The Jacksonville native makes good all fields contact when he stays within himself, though he got power conscious this spring and struck out at a 22.4% clip. His strong Cape run really helped reestablish his power potential, and because of that he has a shot for fringe-average power in pro ball. If he can get back to keeping it simple at the plate and get his strikeout rate safely below 20% next spring, he could be drafted somewhere on day two. It's a moderately attractive defensive profile as well, as he handled second base and third base capably for Florida and brings some versatility once he gets to pro ball.

Bonus: OF Isaiah Thomas, Lewis-Clarke State. My 2022 draft rank: unranked.
Isaiah Thomas is coming back. He ranked #109 on my 2021 list after slashing .305/.361/.583 with 13 home runs and a 63/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games at Vanderbilt, but went undrafted and came out at #5 on this same list a year ago. Instead of returning to Vanderbilt, he stepped away from the game for mental health reasons and didn't appear in a game in 2022. Now, it appears he's ready to go again, originally transferring across the country to Oregon before switching late to Idaho NAIA powerhouse Lewis-Clark State. Given that he'll turn 23 a few months before the next draft and hasn't swung a bat since 2021, it's hard to know what to make of the South Florida native, but expectations are high for 2023. He possesses plus raw power from a strong, lean, explosive 6'3" frame, and he tapped it consistently in games against an SEC schedule. He did so despite an extremely aggressive approach that led to a 25.8% strikeout rate and just a 3.7% walk rate, but his barrel is so accurate that it didn't hinder him at all. After swinging at nearly everything in 2021, he'll look to shore up that approach at Lewis-Clark State and force pitchers to come to him, if only to show teams that he can stay disciplined once he hits pro ball. Still, there aren't many hitters in college baseball that can scorch the ball like Thomas. Last time we saw him on the field, he was an above average runner with an above average arm, making for a very strong profile in right field, and it remains to be seen where the Warriors deploy him in 2023.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

The Orioles are a team on the rise, to put it lightly, and this draft absolutely helped push that along. With five of the first 81 picks, they had by far the largest bonus pool to play with and brought in a massive influx of talent, including five players who signed for seven figure bonuses. Baltimore went with bats early on and switched to a high volume of pitching around the middle of day two, often focusing on hitters with elevated strikeout rates with strong underlying metrics in the power, speed, and plate discipline departments. In fact, each of the first four college players they drafted (though technically one was as a pitcher and didn't sign anyways) and five of the first six ran at least a 19.7% strikeout rate this spring. I really like the talent they came away with here, as it goes far beyond potential superstar Jackson Holliday at the top. The most interesting thing they did was perhaps using money that may have been earmarked for third rounder Nolan McLean and instead putting it towards seventeenth rounder Carter Young, who had first round aspirations before struggling mightily at the plate this spring.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-1: SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #4.
Slot value: $8.85 million. Signing bonus: $8.19 million ($656,900 below slot value).
With the first overall pick, the Orioles took the kid that put together perhaps the most impressive spring in the country. Coming into the season, he was noted as a hit-over-power bat that stood out for his feel for the game despite over swinging at times during the summer, with most projections putting him in the second round. Then when the winter thawed in northern Oklahoma, he came out looking significantly bigger, faster, and stronger, and that immediately translated to results on the field. Holliday has always shown great feel for the barrel from a leveraged left handed swing that gets that barrel long through the zone, and in 2022 his newfound strength allowed everything to come together as he bashed home runs all over the field and all season long without sacrificing any contact. It's now a comfortably plus hit tool that is growing into plus power as well, making for an extremely balanced and potent profile at the plate. He also shows a plus arm in the infield and as he's gotten quicker and more explosive, he now projects to stay at shortstop long term. Everything, from the body to the in-game production, is trending up very quickly and the Orioles don't think he's done surprising people. It's hard to poke any holes in the game of a kid who shows advanced instincts and feel in addition to loud physical tools, and the bloodlines certainly don't hurt as the son of seven time All Star Matt Holliday (got it right this time). He had been committed to play at Oklahoma State, where the Holliday family name is as synonymous with the program as Stillwater is to red dirt, but once he rocketed to the top of the amateur baseball world this spring, it was pretty clear he was going pro. That pro career is off to a strong start, as he's slashing .280/.448/.380 with an exceptional 9/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

CBA-33: OF Dylan Beavers, California. My rank: #26.
Slot value: $2.32 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million ($115,000 below slot value).
Dylan Beavers is a really interesting prospect with a great combination of track record and additional projection in the tank. He slashed .303/.401/.630 as a sophomore then held it steady at .291/.426/.634 with 17 home runs and a 54/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games as a sophomore. Beavers is a big, strong, athletic outfielder that does a lot well on the diamond and is steadily getting better. Standing 6'4", he employs an unorthodox operation in the box with a very simple, short swing from the left side that produces plus raw power due to his strength and long arms, even if he doesn't always get them extended. That power comes very naturally as he trusts his hands to do the work and doesn't waste much movement, though I would like to see what would happen if he got those arms extended more frequently. There has always been some swing and miss in his game and his strikeout rate held mostly steady from 2021 to 2022, dropping only slightly from 21.0% to 19.9%, but he did a better job of laying off bad pitches and watched his walk rate jump from 12.7% to 18.8%. It's definitely a power over hit bat and probably always will be, but he's moving in the right direction and I don't think it will be too much of an issue, especially if the Orioles can help him recognize offspeed stuff a little better. The Central Coast native is also a very good athlete for his size and runs well, giving him a shot at center field if he's not bumped by a better defender (like Jud Fabian) and doesn't slow down with age. With a strong arm, he should be above average in right field should he end up there. To top it off, Beavers is very young for a college junior and didn't turn 21 until after the draft, giving Baltimore even more time to mold him into what they want. I see a 25+ home run bat with solid on-base percentages and enough speed to provide additional value on both sides of the ball. So far, he's off to a red hot start between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva, slashing .338/.469/.523 with an 11/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games. 

2-42: 3B Max Wagner, Clemson. My rank: #49.
Slot value: $1.86 million. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($38,100 above slot value).
If you want to talk about pop up prospects, Max Wagner is as "pop up" as it gets. He didn't get regular playing time as a freshman in 2021 and slashed just .214/.305/.345 in a part time role, but won the everyday third base job at Clemson in 2022 and became a one man wrecking crew not seen in the program since Seth Beer. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he slashed .369/.496/.852 with 27 home runs and a 51/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games and won the ACC Player of the Year award. He shows a quick, powerful right handed swing that is direct to the ball and wastes little movement, finding the barrel with extreme consistency this spring and showing off plus power in games. The exit velocity data is strong as well, portending to that power continuing to show up in pro ball with wood bats. He has always struggled with swing and miss, but he got his strikeout rate down to a reasonable 19.7% this spring as his pitch selection improved and he drove up his walk rate to an impressive 17.4% as well. Meanwhile, the Green Bay native has plenty enough arm strength to stick at third base and show well there. As he jumped onto scouts radars early in the spring, he was battling that right-right corner profile a bit, but when you put up a 1.348 OPS while playing in the ACC, that limitation matters less and less. He should be the everyday third baseman in Baltimore soon enough with a similar offensive outlook to Dylan Beavers, if perhaps a bit less upside. So far, he's slashing .250/.403/.396 with a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

CBB-67: OF Jud Fabian, Florida. My rank: #35.
Slot value: $1.03 million. Signing bonus: $1.03 million.
Jud Fabian is a fascinating player with a ton to dive into. A good prospect out of high school, he reclassified and came to campus at Florida a year early, then put himself in line for a multi-million dollar payday in the 2021 draft. The Orioles were rumored to be willing to give him close to $3 million a year ago, but the Red Sox snagged him one pick earlier and offered him significantly less. He went back to school and while he didn't get quite as much this time around, Baltimore finally got its man. In 2021, Fabian was noted for loud tools but evaluators worried about a 29.4% strikeout rate and a streaky bat that could come up empty for weeks at a time. Early in 2022, it looked like he was beginning to overcome those swing and miss issues, but streaky is as streaky does and he finished at 22.3%. Much better for sure, but still higher than you'd like to see, especially from a senior. So what's his deal? Fabian shows off plus raw power from the right side, consistently finding the barrel when he does make contact and elevating the ball with tremendous authority with a quick uppercut. He also possesses an extremely strong eye at the plate, limiting his chases while recognizing spin out of the hand – that led to a very strong 20.0% walk rate. The problem lies in his pure bat to ball skills, which are well below average as his uphill swing path doesn't keep his barrel in the zone for long. Even though he consistently picks the right pitches to swing at, he regularly swings through them even in the zone and there can be stretches where he looks like he's swinging at watermelon seeds. The rest of the offensive profile is so strong, though, that the Orioles are willing to bank on his power and pitch recognition making up for those bat to ball skills in the long run, perhaps with some help from their exceptional player development staff. The Ocala, Florida native also brings great value in the field, with above average speed and plus instincts making him a plus defender in center field. Add in that he's still age-appropriate for this class due to enrolling early, and it's an all around flawless profile aside from that one pesky but important thing – hitting the ball. That hasn't been an issue thus far in his pro career, where he's slashing .377/.494/.721 with three home runs and an 18/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League, Low A Delmarva, and High A Aberdeen.

3-81: RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State. My rank: #190.
Slot value: $794,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The highest drafted player to go unsigned in this draft, Nolan McLean was a draft-eligible sophomore who will head back to Oklahoma State to further establish what is a pretty raw profile at the moment. A well known two-way prospect out of high school that also competed to play quarterback for Mike Gundy's football program, McLean made it to campus and showed enticing ability on both sides of the ball but never quite put it together. He showed off tremendous raw power at the plate and slashed .285/.397/.595 with 19 home runs and a 107/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, but those 107 strikeouts were the most in college baseball history and that's a problem. The Orioles wound up drafting him as a pitcher on the heels of his 4.97 ERA and 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings out of the bullpen, where he ran his fastball into the upper 90's and showed off an improving slider. He doesn't have a ton of track record on the mound and for now it's hard to project him as a starter, which is part of why he's heading back to Stillwater to get more consistent innings. His money wound up going to 17th rounder Carter Young.

4-107: C Silas Ardoin, Texas. My rank: #139.
Slot value: $571,400. Signing bonus: $571,400.
Adley Rutschman will be entrenched behind the plate in Baltimore for as long as the Orioles can keep him around, but Silas Ardoin brings a very solid profile to slot in behind him. Ardoin didn't hit much over his first two years at Texas, where he was a glove-first regular and his defensive prowess outshined his lack of impact at the plate. That changed in 2022, when he broke out to slash .271/.391/.513 with 12 home runs and a 46/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, crushing his previous home run career high of one. The Louisiana native is still a standout defensive catcher, where he is very agile when it comes to blocking baseballs and recovering to put himself in position to throw out runners. A slingshot right arm helps as well, making him one of the most well rounded defensive catchers in the class. At the plate, he has always shown the ability to recognize pitches and work counts like a catcher should, but he has gotten stronger and found the barrel much more frequently in 2022. While he doesn't possess standout exit velocities, he regularly squares the baseball up and maximizes his below average raw power into fringe-average game power. Ardoin rarely chases and looks very pro ready, giving him an opportunity to join Rutschman in Baltimore sooner rather than later. So far, that pro-ready profile has translated to a .205/.418/.231 slash line and an even 14/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 12 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

5-137: RHP Trace Bright, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $426,800. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($26,800 below slot value).
Trace Bright hasn't quite gotten the on-field results you want, but he has spent his career going up against Auburn's tough SEC schedule plus whoever they meet in the postseason. He dropped his ERA from 8.74 as a freshman to 6.98 as a sophomore and 5.16 this year as a junior, adding in a 94/38 strikeout to walk ratio over those 80.2 innings this season. The numbers won't pop off the page, but despite the high ERA he rarely got blown up and has always done a pretty good job of limiting damage. Bright stands out for his deep arsenal, led by a fastball in the low to mid 90's that can touch 97 from a lower release point. He adds a potentially above average slider and curveball with distinct movement, getting more sweep and power on the former and more depth on the latter. Rounding out the arsenal with a solid changeup, it should make for a very fun profile to play with to try to maximize his success. The Montgomery native has fringe-average command but stays within himself and his misses usually aren't egregious, and with an athletic, repeatable delivery, he's not far off from solid average or even above average command. There is projection remaining in his 6'4" frame and he makes for a high probability #4 starter with some upside. So far, he has made one appearance each in the Florida Complex League and at Low A Delmarva, tossing five innings of one (unearned) run ball, allowing just one walk and no hits while striking out seven.

6-167: OF Douglas Hodo III, Texas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $319,800. Signing bonus: $305,000 ($14,800 below slot value).
Douglas Hodo is an interesting one with an attractive combination of tools, performance, and polish. A three year starter at Texas alongside Silas Ardoin, he had his best year yet in 2022 slashing .319/.418/.532 with ten home runs and a 74/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games. He's hard to miss on the baseball field, playing hard on both sides of the ball and making things happen. Hodo possesses average raw power from the right side, but takes big swings and can really turn on the ball, with enough explosiveness in the box to send it out the other way on occasion. He can lapse into becoming a bit of a free swinger at times and struck out at a 21.8% clip this spring, probably more a product of that big uppercut than of a poor eye. Learning to tone it down in the box and trade some power for contact may help going forward, and his plus speed adds value when he puts it in play as well. In fact, his 26 doubles tied for the national Division I lead this spring. That speed and aggressive style of play helps him in center field as well, where he projects to stay long term with enough arm strength to make it work. Given that he's light on above average or even potentially above average tools across the board besides his speed, it's probably more of a fourth outfielder profile than an every day one, so the fact that he can handle all three outfield spots easily is a big boon. He's off to a bit of a slower start in pro ball, slashing .148/.378/.185 with a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

11-317: RHP Zack Showalter, Wesley Chapel HS [FL]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $440,000 ($315,000 against bonus pool).
Unrelated to Buck as far as I know. The Orioles spent fourth round money to lure Zack Showalter away from a USF commitment, banking on his projection and strong fastball metrics. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 95, getting down the mound well with a low release height and riding action to carry his fastball above barrels consistently. He can spin off some solid sliders with depth, though it does need to add power and can get slurvy. Lastly, his changeup is a third pitch for now that he doesn't use often. Showalter brings projection in his 6'2" frame and his arm works well, promising increased velocity that could really help his breaking ball and turn his fastball into a true weapon. The Tampa-area native can get scattered with his command, which combined with the state of his secondary stuff leads to some relief questions, but he's young and has plenty of time to smooth all that out. I wouldn't expect him to move quickly but the Orioles could have some fun molding this profile.

16-467: RHP Graham Firoved, Virginia Tech. My rank: #222.
Graham Firoved has been around the block, beginning his career at Radford before transferring to the powerhouse Northwest Florida State JC program in Niceville. He moved on to Virginia Tech as a junior and has took on a prominent role in the Hokie bullpen for two years, this spring posting a 4.76 ERA and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 innings. Firoved runs his fastball up to 95 in relief, but the pitch plays above its velocity with great carry up in the zone. He spins an above average curveball as well that plays very well off his fastball, and it's yet another profile I think the Orioles could get very creative with. The Virginia Beach native threw a lot of fastballs when I watched him at Virginia Tech and got hit when he left it over the plate, and he could potentially benefit from mixing in his curveball more often to keep hitters guessing. Firoved also has fringy command that led to all those meatballs, and fine tuning that just a little bit so he can more consistently keep the ball around the letters would also be useful. Given his age (nearly 23), two pitch mix, and command, he's a pure relief prospect for now, but one that could thrive in the Orioles' system. He hasn't pitched too much to start, with two innings of two run ball under his belt on two hits, three walks, and one strikeout between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

17-497: SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt. My rank: #193.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $1.33 million ($1.08 million against bonus pool).
This will be one of the most interesting picks to track in the draft. Carter Young entered the season squarely in the first round conversation on the heels of a strong, if injury-interrupted, sophomore season, but he struggled mightily in 2022 and lost the starting shortstop role at Vanderbilt by slashing .207/.327/.383 with seven home runs and a 66/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He announced his intention to transfer to LSU and it looked like he would make it there, especially after he lasted until the seventeenth round, with a firm desire to rebuild his stock in a new environment. The Orioles felt that he was on his way to a huge comeback story in Baton Rouge and gave him roughly the equivalent of pick #56 money to sign, likely close to as much as he might have gotten had the draft been before the season. That big bonus meant that Nolan McLean couldn't sign above slot value in the third round, but the Orioles got their guy. Young is extremely tooled up, producing plus raw power from both sides of the plate and having tapped it for 16 home runs a year ago. At his best, he shows very attractive batted ball data with consistently high exit velocities and deep line drives around the park, even as he was facing tough pitching in the SEC. Meanwhile, he takes very big hacks to get to that power, and swing and miss has been a major concern. A shoulder injury limited him down the stretch in 2021 and many teams were willing to write off his sky-high 30.1% strikeout rate because of that, but he struck out at a 29.2% clip this spring and his performance suffered severely. The Orioles will have to find a way to cut that down, but given how he looked at his best in 2021, that is absolutely possible. The central Washington state native also brings great value on the other side of the ball as an above average defensive shortstop with a plus arm. His instincts and athleticism help him play above his average speed out there, and that defense will buy his bat additional time to develop. There is huge upside here, as evidenced by the massive signing bonus, but also a ton of risk with a guy who struck out at a 29% clip and hit his way out of the Vanderbilt starting lineup. It looks like he has already begun to turn it around a bit, slashing .296/.333/.444 with one home run and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio through 12 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

18-527: RHP Andrew Walters, Miami. My rank: #127.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
When it came to handing out the big bonuses at the end, it likely came down to Nolan McLean, Carter Young, and Andrew Walters as to who got the money, and Young took the deal so Walters will head back to Miami for a senior season. He was dominant for the Hurricanes this season, posting a 1.65 ERA and a 62/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings as a reliever, doing so essentially on one pitch. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 99, with great riding life and a ton of deception as he hides it very well. It's not Mariano Rivera's cutter, but against ACC competition in 2022, it played that way. Walters also adds a slider but it's more of a change of pace option to keep hitters from getting too comfortable, lacking hard bite. The Florida native could end up succeeding in the minors on that fastball alone, but sharpening up that slider into at least an average pitch would really help him profile in a larger role in the majors. With above average command and a sturdy 6'4" frame, he does look like he could start, but would need to add a changeup in addition to sharpening up that slider. Going back to Miami will show teams what is and isn't possible with his development because it will be hard to top the performance.

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12

2021 draftees: 38. Top school: Texas Tech (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 9/16/2020)

Top draftees:
1-21, Cubs: LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State)
CBA-32, Tigers: RHP Ty Madden (Texas)
2-51, Brewers: LHP Russell Smith (Texas Christian)
4-126, Braves: SS Cal Conley (Texas Tech)
4-128, Twins: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Oklahoma State)
4-129, Padres: LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia)
4-130, Rays: OF Dru Baker (Texas Tech)

A lot is going to change in the Big 12 over the next few seasons, with flagship programs Texas and Oklahoma preparing to leave for the SEC and Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Brigham Young possibly joining in their place. Last year, I had to dig deep into the conference to find its top draft prospects, but this year is looking to be much stronger right away. Last year the conference was more about depth than star power, with just three players going in the top three and a half rounds, but then we saw four players go in a span of five picks at the back of the fourth round and ultimately every team except Kansas had multiple picks. This year already has three players squarely in the first round conversation alone and quite a few more in that second to third round conversation, so we could see heavy cross checker traffic in the region. The state of Oklahoma dominates this list with six out of ten names, and it's also a list full of two-way names, so that's something to be excited about if you're interested in it. The top ten prospects in the Big 12 heading into the season are:

1. 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 200 lbs. Born 10/4/2000. Hometown: San Antonio, TX.
2021: 21 HR, .337/.462/.697, 4 SB, 45/49 K/BB in 56 games.
The younger brother of Rangers prospect and 2018 eighth overall pick Josh Jung, Jace may actually manage to beat his brother's draft position. He absolutely raked from start to finish in 2021, pushing his batting average above .400 as late as April 14th, at one point posting two three-homer games in a six game span against Kansas State and TCU, and another time going deep in five out of six games against Oklahoma and Kansas. He's the best hitter in the Big 12 and possibly the nation, and a firm candidate to win the Golden Spikes Award in 2022. At six feet tall, he's not huge, but he packs a ton of strength into that frame that gives him plus raw power. He gets to that power very consistently in games with a fairly unique setup, holding his hands higher than most and level with his back shoulder while cocking the bat back a bit towards the backstop. While most players eventually end up in that position after their load, Jung is already ready to go before the pitch is thrown and has very little wasted movement in his swing. Combine that with a patient approach, and you have a guy who not only squares the ball up extremely consistently, but who is simply on base all the time. If we were to nitpick anything about his offensive game, it's that he swings and misses a tad more than you'd like for a potential top ten pick, but that really is nitpicking and he walks so much and hits for so much power that it's really only a question at the very top of the draft. The defensive profile isn't as exciting, as he's manned second base for Texas Tech thus far and profiles either there or at third base in the long run, depending on which part of his game (range or arm strength) a team wants to stretch from his average tool set. Regardless, we have a hitter who profiles for as many as 25-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, a true middle of the lineup profile no matter where he ends up defensively. That has a chance to land him in a very similar range to his brother four years prior.

2. OF Jared McKenzie, Baylor.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6', 175 lbs. Born 5/16/2001. Hometown: Round Rock, TX.
2021: 10 HR, .383/.453/.626, 3 SB, 35/14 K/BB in 51 games.

Jared McKenzie might not quite have Jace Jung's power, but otherwise he's right there. After ripping .406/.453/.449 in his shortened freshman season a year ago, he followed that up with a .383/.453/.626 line this year and has proven to be arguably the toughest out in the entire conference. However, his stock dipped a little bit with a mediocre run through the Cape Cod League (.225/.316/.245, 31% K rate), so he goes into 2022 with a little something to prove. There are no questions about McKenzie's hit tool, with exceptional feel for the barrel that allows him to spray line drives around the field and run into some solid power to his pull side, and a .626 slugging percentage in 2021 was not too shabby for a contact hitter. He hits from a wide base that gives him nice leverage and makes it easier to use the whole field, maximizing his power output despite not being overly physical at a skinny six feet tall. The power did not show up at all with wood bats over the summer, with just two extra base hits (both doubles) in thirty games, so given that he'll be using a metal bat all spring, that may continue to be a question right up to the draft. It looks like a back of the first round/comp round profile for now, with a chance to hit his way firmly into it if he comes back out with the low strikeout rates he showed in 2021 (14.2%), and he currently projects for perhaps 15-20 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. The Austin-area native has some speed but isn't a burner, with a good chance he'll move off center field, perhaps to left. That would put some pressure on his bat and he'll want to show he can hit at the top of the lineup rather than the bottom.

3. 3B Peyton Graham, Oklahoma.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 170 lbs. Born 1/26/2001. Hometown: Waxahachie, TX.
2021: 11 HR, .288/.400/.502, 7 SB, 58/30 K/BB in 53 games.

This profile reminds me a bit of 2021 A's second rounder Zack Gelof for those who followed the 2021 draft. Like Jared McKenzie, Peyton Graham exploded onto the scene with a strong shortened freshman season in 2020 (.358/.457/.612), though he's taken a minor step back since then. Graham has the potential for above average or even plus raw power eventually in his extremely projectable 6'4" frame, and he has begun to tap it in games on a fairly regular basis. He's a patient hitter that knows how to work counts and get his pitch, though he can get into some trouble in deep counts and struck out in 22.7% of his plate appearances in 2021, which is high but still within reason. Like Gelof, Graham will head into his junior season looking for a way to put his power projection together with his plate discipline and come out an all-around force, but for now, it's still a very nice all-around package. Take his defense, where he shows great range and plenty enough arm strength to be an asset at third base, even showing well at shortstop at times, and you have a profile that does a lot right and not much wrong. It will be up to the Waxahachie product to show in 2022 that he can be a true impact player rather than a "jack of all trades, master of none" and work his way into the first round. For now, he's probably more of a comp round/second round type, but there undoubtedly are already teams in love with the skill set who would jump at him in the back of the first. It's a 20 home run, solid on-base percentage projection with a chance for more.

4. RHP Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 180 lbs. Born 9/5/2000. Hometown: Jenks, OK.
2021: 2-5, 7.42 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 67/33 K/BB in 57 innings.

Bryce Osmond was a highly regarded prospect in the 2019 draft, earning second round grades from many evaluators and landing at #53 on my board. Instead, he opted to head west to Stillwater, where his performance has been extremely uneven but he has shown just enough to keep scouts coming back, waiting for that breakout. Osmond allowed at least three earned runs in ten of his thirteen appearances last spring and was knocked around for seven against Oklahoma at one point, but he came back looking better in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed a very respectable 4.21 ERA and 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings. The Tulsa-area product brings a low to mid 90's fastball that is regularly up to 96, adding a slider that flashes plus when it's on as well as a more average curveball and changeup. He has an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame and even earned some scouting interest out of high school with his bat, so when you combine that with at times electric stuff, there's plenty of upside. For now, consistency is the big item on the to do list for Osmond. His slider can flatten out at times and his other secondary stuff isn't always there, and while his delivery is pretty simple, he still struggles to repeat it and can lose the strike zone. We're talking fringe-average control and below average command for now. It seems like he could be one or two adjustments away from breaking out as one of the top arms in the conference, and his solid run through the Cape Cod League could be a sign that it's coming. He has #2 starter upside if so.

5. RHP Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 6/8/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2021 (at Miami): 2-3, 5.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 35/18 K/BB in 44 innings.
Victor Mederos ranked as my third best pitching prospect to reach campus a year ago (#57 on my overall draft board), part of an incredible Miami recruiting class that could produce multiple early round picks. However, after an up and down freshman season, he transferred across the country to Oklahoma State, where he looks to help anchor what could be the best pitching staff in the Big 12. Mederos has huge stuff, led by a mid 90's fastball that has reached as high as 99 with a full arsenal to back it up. His downer curve, harder slider, and changeup all flash at least above average if not plus, though for now it's all relatively inconsistent. He has more feel for the breaking balls than his changeup, but they can blend into each other at times and get hit hard. I've seen Mederos listed at 6'4" back in high school, 6'3" at Miami, and now 6'2" at Oklahoma State, so I'm not actually sure how tall he is, but he's a big dude nonetheless that extends well down the mound and gets on hitters quick. The Miami native rotates his big body hard in his delivery and can be prone to overthrowing, at which times he can lose the strike zone, but for the most part he was around the zone in 2021. As he gets more comfortable with his huge stuff, he should be able to provide average command as he repeats his delivery more consistently and trusts his arm strength. We could definitely use fewer balls over the heart of the plate, and given how hittable he was at times in 2021, there are some minor concerns that his stuff could play too true. Perhaps a change of scenery from Miami to Stillwater will be just what he needs to go from seeing his stuff play down to playing up, and it's also important to note that he was just a true freshman last spring, even if he's old for his class and turned 20 in June.

6. SS Trey Faltine, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 1/8/2001. Hometown: Richmond, TX.

2021: 5 HR, .249/.374/.401, 7 SB, 72/35 K/BB in 66 games.

Trey Faltine was an under the radar but very interesting high school product out of the Houston area in 2019, coming in at #85 on my board, showing off supreme athleticism that made him an enticing prospect as a pitcher, infielder, or outfielder. After hovering around 90 with his fastball while showing great feel for his secondary pitches and a repeatable delivery, he's exclusively played shortstop in Austin and looks to stick with that going forward.  He really stands out for his glove, with tremendous range and a strong arm making him a lock to stick at shortstop and provide plenty of value on defense alone. The bat is a bit behind the glove, but there's still plenty to like. He's a moderately disciplined hitter, showing a clean right handed swing that helps him make hard contact to all fields while drawing his fair share of walks, but there's more to be unlocked. Faltine can produce surprisingly high exit velocities when he really connects, but to this point that power hasn't shown up much in games with just eight home runs over 108 games between his time at Texas and in the Cape Cod League. There is some question as to whether he'll ever be able to tap that power consistently in games given his already fringe-average hit tool, but even a moderate step forward in 2022 would really help his draft stock given his defensive profile. It's a utility floor with a chance for more, reminding me a bit of 2021 Reds third rounder Jose Torres or 2020 Royals comp pick Nick Loftin.

7. RHP/SS Cade Horton, Oklahoma.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 210 lbs. Born 8/20/2001. Hometown: Norman, OK.

2021: Did not play.

Both Bryce Osmond and Trey Faltine showed off serious two-way ability in high school, but both have stuck to one or the other in college. That makes Cade Horton the top official two-way prospect in the conference, despite the fact that he hasn't actually seen the field in Norman after missing 2021 with Tommy John surgery. A mid-August birthday makes him old for his class and he'll therefore be eligible as a redshirt freshman in 2022, so for now we'll just have to project based on his high school profile. Most prefer the Norman product as a pitcher, as do I after ranking him the fifth best incoming pitching prospect a year ago and the 70th overall prospect in the draft. In high school, he sat in the low 90's with his fastball and could reach back for up to 95, adding a good slider and an average changeup that showed promise. His main goal upon reaching campus was going to be getting stronger, as he didn't always hold his fastball velocity deep into games and his slider needed to add power to become a true plus pitch. He's a very good athlete that also originally intended to play quarterback for the national powerhouse Oklahoma football team, though he wasn't on the roster as a freshman and his surgery obviously knocked him out for the 2021 season. And I don't think he was going to see the field anyways with Spencer Rattler locking down the starting job. That football athleticism helps him pump consistent strikes and repeat his delivery well, and now that he's presumably focusing solely on baseball, I'm excited to see how he comes out throwing once healthy in 2022, where he has a chance to step into the Sooners' weekend rotation. At the plate, Horton shows above average raw power from the right side, though his swing can get long and he has shown swing and miss issues in the past. We obviously have that aforementioned athleticism, which combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop long term. He'll have a lot riding in this spring but if he doesn't like his offers come draft day, he'll have plenty of leverage as a 20 year old with three years of eligibility remaining. Because of that, expect him to be an expensive sign.

8. RHP/1B Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'7", 220 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2021: 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 102/27 K/BB in 84 innings.

2021: 1 HR, .269/.398/.388, 0 SB, 20/14 K/BB in 42 games.

Justin Campbell brings us another two-way player, though aside from his raw power and solid plate discipline, I don't see much reason to keep him off the mound. He was Oklahoma State's most consistent pitcher this past spring, going at least five innings in twelve of fourteen starts and allowing zero or one earned run nine times. The highlight of his season came on May 8th, when he no-hit the Kansas Jayhawks on just 99 pitches while walking one and striking out eleven. The towering 6'7" righty doesn't have overpowering stuff, but really knows how to pitch and screams innings-eating #4 starter. The fastball sits around 90, reaching a few ticks above that at his best, coming from an extremely high release point that makes the ball look like it's coming down from the sky. That kind of approach angle might have made him a relatively early pick even without big velocity ten years ago, though today it's not as in style. He drops in a big curveball with a ton of depth as well as an above average changeup. Campbell repeats his delivery extremely well and throws everything, including the offspeed stuff, for strikes, screaming dependability with a more old school profile. If he adds a tick of velocity in 2022, which could happen especially if he gives up hitting, it looks like a pretty safe second round profile. Now with the current velocity, he probably fits better in the third.

9. SS/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Willow Springs, NC.
2021: 8 HR, .263/.410/.526, 1 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 39 games.

2021: 0-1, 18.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/4 K/BB in 2 innings.

Make that a third consecutive true two way player. In addition to playing both ways, Nolan McLean is like Cade Horton in that he was actually recruited to play quarterback at Oklahoma State as well, though while he was listed on the 2020 football roster, he didn't get into any games and is not on the 2021 roster. McLean was obviously a very highly regarded baseball recruit, having ranked #145 on my 2020 board, and is now eligible as a sophomore due to being old for the class. A well known pitching prospect in high school, he sits in the low 90's and adds a big curveball but has not pitched much yet for the Cowboys, earning just two innings last spring and not pitching at all in the Cape Cod League. With his frame and athleticism, he could continue to trend upwards and has a chance to start if he improves his changeup, but I see more upside at the plate. While there are some holes in the profile, he overall had a strong freshman season in Stillwater and followed it up by hitting .261/.469/.522 in eight games on the Cape, continuing the upward trend of his bat that began in earnest during his senior year of high school. McLean reminds me a bit of incoming UCLA freshman Malakhi Knight as a hitter, employing an upright stance and swing and generating leverage through his strength and long levers. It's a power over hit profile for now, with the Raleigh-area product projecting for above average power from that big 6'3" frame, and he does have a patient approach at the plate that enables him to draw plenty of walks. For now, there's some swing and miss in his game and his right handed swing can get grooved at times, and until he cuts down that strikeout rate (28.9% as a freshman, 37.5% on the Cape), he projects more in the middle of day two rather than in the top couple of rounds. The approach is there, so really we just need better adjustability and pure bat to ball skills in the swing. He's an exceptional athlete with a strong arm, though the jury is still out as to whether he'll stick at shortstop.

10. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 2/21/2000. Hometown: Willis, TX.

2021: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 innings.

Quite a few well-known, 2021 draft-eligible names are returning to the Big 12, including top-200 prospects Austin Krob (#186, TCU), Pete Hansen (#194, Texas), and Ivan Melendez (#196, Texas), but Brandon Birdsell (#184) is the best of the group and in my opinion and was the only one to crack this list. Also a well-known prospect out of San Jacinto JC in 2020, Birdsell will be a household name for Texas area scouts for a third straight season and hopefully this will be the one where he gets his money. He has a big right arm that has produced higher and higher velocities, and in 2021 he touched as high as 99 while sitting in the low to mid 90's. His power upper 80's slider is an out pitch that projects as an above average offering, while his changeup and newer curveball are both solid pitches in their own right that help fill out his arsenal. He does a good job of repeating his short arm delivery and throws strikes, giving him every chance to start at the next level. Really, the only question mark is health, and unfortunately it's a big one. Birdsell went down in April last spring with a shoulder injury and hasn't pitched since, and if there's any body part that still scares away scouts in an age of rapidly advancing sports medicine, it's the shoulder. He will have to prove that he is healthy in 2022 to even have a shot at the draft's second day, and in order to go in the top five rounds or so and project as a starter, he'll likely need at least 60-70 innings in the Red Raider rotation. If he does come back healthy and pitch to his ability, we have a serious #3 or #4 starter on our hands, and even if he can't hold up under a starter's workload, the fastball and slider make him a very solid relief option.